tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-102327997051254703.post3508520546087763584..comments2023-10-31T06:31:41.395-04:00Comments on Bottom of the Barrel: PECOTA Is Stupid, Random Guessing Is Apparently Not StupidBengoodfellahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09401971573776672570noreply@blogger.comBlogger4125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-102327997051254703.post-12513612957883968222013-03-11T13:43:47.935-04:002013-03-11T13:43:47.935-04:00Eric, I think the point you are getting at is the ...Eric, I think the point you are getting at is the point that some of these writers seem to consistently miss. Using PECOTA and other advanced statistics are just another way of gathering information. It's too time intensive to watch every player play, so statistics can help bridge this gap in knowledge. <br /><br />Ivn, that's part of the thing also. PECOTA isn't saying "here is exactly what will happen." It is a tool saying, "here is what we project will happen based on injuries, progression/regression, other factors." It's not expected to be 100% correct, though that is obviously the goal. <br /><br />I know two White Sox fans. One of them isn't whiny and understands the team pretty well. The other...well, your point stands. I hear a lot of complaining about attention being placed on the Cubs. Bengoodfellahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09401971573776672570noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-102327997051254703.post-30240032595795492912013-03-08T15:54:04.185-05:002013-03-08T15:54:04.185-05:00ivn, I love that last part of your comment. There ...ivn, I love that last part of your comment. There is no fan base in the world with a greater inferiorty complex than the White Sox. <br /><br />Not sure if you have had the misfortune of listening to Mike Mulligan on 670 The Score but he is the quintessential Sox fan you speak of. Hearing him bitch and moan every time the White Sox farm system gets blasted for having no prospects brings a smile to my face. "But they had 8 minor league pitchers throw in the big leagues last year." Uh that's because of injuries, and most of them sucked. jacktotheracknoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-102327997051254703.post-4398910596920766362013-03-08T15:26:39.942-05:002013-03-08T15:26:39.942-05:00But Pecota still can’t predict a player’s heart or...<i>But Pecota still can’t predict a player’s heart <b>or injuries,</b> drug use, squabbles with managers, coaches, spouses or girlfriends (or boyfriends). </i><br /><br />doesn't PECOTA actually do this? I'm pretty sure it accounts for guys with dodgy health histories. maybe not freak injuries like Rivera blowing out his knee last year, but no one does. <br /><br />I also don't entirely think that PECOTA is trying to predict that, or "You can't factor in injuries or the talent level of a team's opponents, or what trades a team will make during the season to improve." I'm pretty sure it tries to reasonably project how players will do based on what they've shown in the past, then says, "well, if these guys perform like this, their team will probably win somewhere around X amount of games." <br /><br />I think what bothers me the most about anti-stat stuff are the elaborate strawmen that get built. if a writer goes after WAR, they argue against a hypothetical person who thinks WAR is literally the only useful metric for evaluating players, and if someone goes after PECOTA they accuse it of claiming to be a flawless, 100%-certain prediction model. whatever.<br /><br />it doesn't predict the White Sox well because the White Sox are a pretty confounding team - since they won the World Series they've won 90, 72, 89, 79, 88, 79, and 85 games and haven't consistently done any one thing well aside from hitting home runs. the 2006 prediction was based primarily on the idea that there was no way their pitching would be as good as it was in 2005, and sure enough literally every pitcher they brought back was markedly worse in 2006. they didn't account for Dye and Crede having career years, but I think few people did.<br /><br />one thing you don't need advanced stats to know - White Sox fans are whiney, insecure pussies.ivnnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-102327997051254703.post-30160513266197197742013-03-07T22:50:23.069-05:002013-03-07T22:50:23.069-05:00I don't really see "stats guys" ruli...I don't really see "stats guys" ruling out scouting and things like that. I think we all realize that scouting is important, but with hundreds of teams in the minor leagues, you can't scout every player in person enough to really know how good they are. My first baseball game came when I was 13. I saw the Yankees beat the Rangers. Mel Hall went 3 for 4 with a triple. Little Eric thought Mel Hall was awesome. Unfortunately, one game does not reflect true ability, and Hall was in Japan a year later.<br /><br />As Bill James said, the difference between a .275 hitter and a .300 hitter is one hit every 40 at bats. If someone can see that with their eye, I give them a lot of credit. I certainly can't.<br /><br />We know scouting is important to player evaluation. However, you can use those statistics to decide who to focus on. Maybe you plan on making a trade with a team, and you are looking for a lottery ticket as a throw in. Stats show a guy hitting .222, but with incredible strike zone control and good defensive statistics You may send a scout out to check him out or watch film on the player. It is a tool. Just like both Ofman and Tomaso.Eric Cnoreply@blogger.com