tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-102327997051254703.post4049314012221726263..comments2023-10-31T06:31:41.395-04:00Comments on Bottom of the Barrel: Gregg Easterbrook Has Now Decided Luck is the Ultimate Decider of Many NFL GamesBengoodfellahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09401971573776672570noreply@blogger.comBlogger5125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-102327997051254703.post-43975063551812670962012-02-13T08:49:12.254-05:002012-02-13T08:49:12.254-05:00Rich, I think luck for one team is poor execution ...Rich, I think luck for one team is poor execution for another. It was lucky for the Pats that John Kasay shanked the kickoff out of bounds. They probably would have won the game anyway, but it was still lucky that he executed poorly. I see what you are saying, but I think luck and bad execution go hand-in-hand. <br /><br />I remember Cris Collinsworth saying before Manningham made that catch that on film he noticed Manningham had problems around the sidelines with keeping his feet in bounds. <br /><br />That crap about Belichick not challenging the call is stupid. That play was happening so fast and it was such a big play he almost had to challenge it just to make sure the call was right. Plus, Belichick wasn't even looking when Manningham got his feet down. He was looking somewhere else. I know he lost a timeout, but that challenge was almost necessary given the importance around the catch. <br /><br />That's true. At the time, I thought it would be best for Eli to kneel it down. Especially since there wasn't any wind or variable like that which would cause Tynes to miss the kick. Obviously it worked out. <br /><br />Murray, that's very true. I think if the Patriots had won Gregg would be talking about the soft defense they played which caused the Pats to score on the final drive. He would probably also talk about how highly paid and highly drafted safeties lost Welker on that pass play, had Welker caught the ball. <br /><br />Justin, I get what you are saying, but you could do that for nearly anything. The Patriots-Giants could have not even met in the Super Bowl. If Matt Schaub doesn't get injured then the Ravens-Texans game could very well take place in Texas instead of Baltimore with the Texans best quarterback on the field. So the Texans could very well have had a good shot to beat the Patriots in Foxboro to go to the Super Bowl. <br /><br />Then in reality, the Patriots may not have even made the Super Bowl if it had not been for the dropped pass by Lee Evans in the end zone. So Gronk's injury could have been irrelevant anyway. <br /><br />There are other examples, but most games can go either way based on one or two events. So luck can play a part in whether a team even gets to the Super Bowl or not. I will agree about the 3 fumbles and zero that were lost. That was pretty lucky, but the Super Bowl easily could have been the Texans v. 49ers. <br /><br />I wish I didn't know how much certain events playing out one way or another affected the outcome of games, but that's just the way it is I guess. My lack of ignorance makes me realize how one play gone good or bad can change a season. I still don't think luck is the ultimate decider of games like Gregg does.Bengoodfellahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09401971573776672570noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-102327997051254703.post-57262558235164064272012-02-11T17:19:52.807-05:002012-02-11T17:19:52.807-05:00Gregg chose some truly strange examples to obscure...Gregg chose some truly strange examples to obscure his point, but the Giants really did luck their way into the title. Not just on the field, either. Consider:<br /><br />If Mike Vick doesn't miss a month, the Giants probably miss the playoffs. (But we must acknowledge that Vick being injured his hardly major news and so we can't say it's THAT lucky.)<br /><br />If Tony Romo doesn't break his hand, there's a fair chance the Giants miss the playoffs.<br /><br />If Rob Gronkowski doesn't screw up his foot in the AFC Championship, the Giants almost certainly lose the Super Bowl.<br /><br />And on the field, the Giants benefited from some almost absurd fumble luck. (Forcing fumbles is a skill, recovering them is luck.)<br /><br />You know... here's an xkcd strip that made me laugh out loud AND made me a little uncomfortable: http://xkcd.com/904/<br /><br />Sometimes I almost think I was happier when I was young and ignorant and believed sports were a test of manhood, because that's what ESPN told me they were. As opposed to now, when I'm perfectly aware that sports are basically a weighted random number generator and can't lie to myself about it.<br /><br />Older I get, the less I find myself caring who wins, and the more I just want to enjoy watching athletes do athletic things. (Which is why baseball frustrates me.)Justin Zethhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11960963276563539839noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-102327997051254703.post-23935813881648095982012-02-11T09:32:50.107-05:002012-02-11T09:32:50.107-05:00GO REVOLUTION!GO REVOLUTION!Murraynoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-102327997051254703.post-48319926839596671272012-02-11T09:32:11.208-05:002012-02-11T09:32:11.208-05:00There was no luck the Giants players made plays Pa...There was no luck the Giants players made plays Pats players didn't it suck ass and I really thought the Pats would win the game but they didn't. Welker makes that catch and Greg would just talk about some play the Giants didn't make a quarter earlier. That's what happens in champonship games with 2 good teams. It comes down to who made that one play and who didn't. I would say onto baseball but I have a feeling the Sox will farking blowMurraynoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-102327997051254703.post-40648007825404970392012-02-10T17:21:19.626-05:002012-02-10T17:21:19.626-05:00In many aspects of life, luck is a bigger factor t...<b>In many aspects of life, luck is a bigger factor than we care to admit.</b><br /><br />Here's my biggest issue - what is luck?<br /><br />Was it luck that the Panther's kicker shanked the kick off? Not really, it was a bad kick.<br /><br />Was it luck that Warner underthrew a receiver because of an unblocked rusher? No, that was bad adjustments by the offensive line.<br /><br />Was it luck that Welker missed a wide open catch? No, because Brady made a bad throw because of the pressure he faced.<br /><br />The only play that can be listed as lucky would be the Tyree catch and even that I'd say it was just a really great play by Tyree and a piss poor job by the Patriots to rip the ball loose.<br /><br /><b>Two minutes before this, Mario Manningham caught his tiptoe pass to move the Giants from their 12 to midfield, setting in motion the fantastic Super Bowl finish.</b><br /><br />Lets not forget that on the drive before, Manningham had a very similar play and couldn't keep his feet in bounds when he clearly could have.<br /><br />Sure the fantastic throw and catch on the last Giants' drive set the TD in "motion," but they very well could have scored had Manningham made the easier catch on the drive before.<br /><br /><b>The challenge cost the Patriots a timeout: a timeout they would sorely need when the Giants reached goal-to-go in the endgame.</b><br /><br />And had Bradshaw fallen down at the 1 it wouldn't have mattered how many time outs the Patriots had. <br /><br /><b>Here's why this is really sour: Manningham made the catch directly in front on Belichick on the New England sideline. </b><br /><br />The play happened really fucking fast and since he was so close, the chances of him seeing:<br /><br />a) When Manningham actually catches the ball <br /><br />AND <br /><br />b) where his feet were at the time<br /><br />is very slim. <br /><br />Considering his proximity to the play, BB probably had a chance to see one or the other and not both.<br /><br /><b>Think about the coaching situation. New England had a two-point lead and faced second-and-11 on the Jersey/A 44 with 4:06, the Giants already down to one timeout.</b><br /><br />a) The Giants scored with just under a minute left, so the extra time probably wouldn't have mattered much.<br /><br />b) The Giants only needed a FG to win it anyway.<br /><br /><b>Had the Patriots gone the distance in the final minute, today Tom Coughlin would be under intense criticism for having his team even run a play rather than having Eli Manning kneel twice before a field-goal try.</b><br /><br />Right because Tynes hadn't already hit the upright earlier in the game and also hasn't had a history of missing relatively important field goals (see: 2008 NFC Championship game).<br /><br />According to reports, Coughlin and Eli both told Bradshaw to go down before scoring. So what's the difference between having your RB fall down at the 1 and taking a knee?<br /><br />You bring up a legitimate argument about the Patriots stripping the ball, but two of the fumbles came at the hands of receivers who were trying to do too much with the ball, while I'm sure Coughlin told Bradshaw to go down as soon as he felt contact. <br /><br />We're also talking about a RB who in 234 carries this season (regular and post) had 2 fumbles. The chances of a fumble in that situation are about on par with Eli fumbling the snap or Tynes missing the FG/the FG getting blocked.<br /><br />Seeing the Giants not kneel the ball was kind of odd, but if the Giants lost, people would be more upset at the defense for allowing NE to go 80 yards in 57 seconds.richnoreply@blogger.com