tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-102327997051254703.post8529835072508668250..comments2023-10-31T06:31:41.395-04:00Comments on Bottom of the Barrel: Joe Morgan Continues the Debacle He Calls a ChatBengoodfellahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09401971573776672570noreply@blogger.comBlogger15125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-102327997051254703.post-36375780583768174102010-10-06T16:11:46.339-04:002010-10-06T16:11:46.339-04:00Anon, I get you. I thought it said runs scored in ...Anon, I get you. I thought it said runs scored in baseball, not NL. <br /><br />Yeah, you made it quite clear that you were talking about 51 games was the correct amount but I just had a brain fart and read it wrong. I am an idiot. Still, that seems like a lot of games to score 2 or less runs...but it may not be.Bengoodfellahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09401971573776672570noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-102327997051254703.post-71437427548175679012010-10-06T14:55:04.197-04:002010-10-06T14:55:04.197-04:00The Phillies scored 2 runs or fewer in 51 games, n...The Phillies scored 2 runs or fewer in 51 games, not 96. Maybe I had a typo somewhere in that last post.<br /><br />The Braves were 5th in runs scored in the National League. In terms of overall MLB ranking they were 13th. But it isn't really fair to compare the NL teams to the AL teams in runs scored due to the DH. 8 of the top 11 team in runs scored were AL teams.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-102327997051254703.post-27019680572411386832010-10-06T12:38:53.023-04:002010-10-06T12:38:53.023-04:00Anon, I know how it can be. I am married to a Yank...Anon, I know how it can be. I am married to a Yankees fan and I have heard "A-Rod sucks" a few too many times. I would be glad to have him playing 3B on the Braves team right now. That would be absolutely perfect. <br /><br />I know the Braves offense isn't that bad, but it does feel that way sometimes. I keep finding a statistic that says the Braves were 13th in runs scored in MLB this year. Why do I keep finding this when everyone else says they were 5th? <br /><br />To your point about getting shut down by Pavano and Duensing, I just don't know if the Braves can hit Cain and Lincecum. We'll find out I guess. <br /><br />Those are some interesting numbers to see. I never would have thought the Phillies would have scored 2 or less runs in 96 games. They seem to be a feast or famine-type offense.Bengoodfellahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09401971573776672570noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-102327997051254703.post-11619632634585285512010-10-06T12:10:15.475-04:002010-10-06T12:10:15.475-04:00Ok anon #2 you have some good points about using F...Ok anon #2 you have some good points about using FanGraphs WAR. That is certainly better than just looking at runs scored. <br /><br />I checked out the Phillies in those low-scoring games you mentioned. They were shutout 11 times, they scored 1 run or fewer in 34 games (21%), and they scored 2 runs or fewer in 51 games. <br /><br />I might as well go through the high scoring games as well. I'm not sure what cutoff you might prefer. I think 9 or 10 runs is a boatload of runs, especially in the NL. I guess I'll go with 9 runs as the minimum for now. The Phillies scored 9 runs or more in 29 games. The Braves scored 9 runs or more in 20 games. The Dodgers scored 9 runs or more in 17 games, and the Cubs did it in 17 games. <br /><br />And Ben I do understand your frustration with lack of hitting. I am a Yankees fan. The Yankees have the best offense in baseball by a large margin by most measures, and yet I still find myself very frustrated with the offense a lot when they get shutdown by guys like Sean O'Sullivan and other nobodies like that. It is hard to remind myself that as frustrated as I am, other fans are probably even more frustrated with their favorite team's crappier offenses. The Yankees have the best offense in baseball. I must sound like a spoiled dumb ass to my friends when I rant about how much guys like Granderson or Jeter have "struggled" this year and my team "only" has 7 or 8 good hitters in the lineup. <br /><br />And then I look at the lineups of a team like the Angels or White Sox or Baltimore or the Royals and realize that my team is pretty darned good at scoring runs.<br /><br />But if they get shutdown by guys like Carl Pavano or Duensing in this opening playoff round...I know I am going to crack up.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-102327997051254703.post-79795760965313826922010-10-06T11:41:27.623-04:002010-10-06T11:41:27.623-04:00Martin, well that makes more sense then. That woul...Martin, well that makes more sense then. That would make it less relative. I would be interested to see that study done for this year. <br /><br />The Pirates could very well have 5 #5 starters...Bengoodfellahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09401971573776672570noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-102327997051254703.post-25638205108149583832010-10-06T11:19:12.821-04:002010-10-06T11:19:12.821-04:00What Boswell did wasn't take the #1 starter of...What Boswell did wasn't take the #1 starter off each team, but divided the starting pitchers into 5 groups, with the best 20% being "#1 starters", the next 20% the "#2 starters". So in theory, a team like the Phils could have three #1 starters, and a team like the Pirates could have three #5 starters.Unknownhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02929927900897638100noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-102327997051254703.post-27638772067733408512010-10-06T08:23:33.952-04:002010-10-06T08:23:33.952-04:00Martin, I wouldn't doubt if the Braves acted s...Martin, I wouldn't doubt if the Braves acted similarly, though I am not sure. I feel like they actually hit some #1 and #2 starters well this year. I don't know how that measurement works b/c if they hit Oswalt hard in Houston then they are hitting a #1 starter, but if they hit him hard in Philly he is a #3 starter. It sounds like the #3-#5 starter idea is a bit relative. <br /><br />My prediction is the Phillies as well. I think they will play the Rays or Yankees (haven't decided yet) and beat them. Pitching wins in the playoffs and the Phillies have pitching. <br /><br />I have no doubt Joe Morgan did not predict the Yankees would win the WS. He probably said they were the strongest team but hedged on his pick. <br /><br />The end of the Fantasy baseball league was crazy. I can't believe we had that many ppl fighting for the #1 spot. If the season had lasted 3 more days I think the #4 or #5 place team could have ended up winning. <br /><br />Anon, I actually had seen that towards the end of the season and thought it was an error. I think I have been having moments where I can't believe the numbers because I watch the Braves play and think they are terrible, when they aren't. Either way, I have come to realize I am whining about my team that made the playoffs and that is bullshit. I will quit doing that. <br /><br />Good point on the runs the Phillies scored and how they could have scored those runs in bunches. I remember early in the year, Joe Morgan was talking about how Halladay had too many losses compared to Adam Wainwright, so at some point he wasn't getting great run support. <br /><br />This is another reason why I think the "win" category for pitchers is so overrated. Even people who understand runs scored by his team are a component of a pitcher's record can sometimes be misled if they don't have the right data in front of them. Without using this data, a person could think an offense was stronger or weaker than they thought. Statistics like this are good.Bengoodfellahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09401971573776672570noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-102327997051254703.post-56310591650239302342010-10-06T08:15:42.325-04:002010-10-06T08:15:42.325-04:00Matt, he wouldn't do it because Bill has troub...Matt, he wouldn't do it because Bill has trouble writing a column about baseball and not talking about the Red Sox or the Yankees. I know he has done it before, but Bill has most of his columns come from the point of view of his favorite team...now that the season is over I don't know if he will write something. Maybe he will write a column about a Yankees-Phillies World Series, that's a possibility, but I am not holding my breath. As far as attendance goes, that whole "Red Sox/boring" column was shit anyway, so I figured he would end up being off. <br /><br />Anon, fine...I will not bash my team for not scoring runs then. It just feels like they suck at hitting. They couldn't get a run off Vance Worley for God's sake. They struggled against Kyle Kendrick. These aren't terrible pitchers, but these are guys the Braves should hit the ball well against. You bring up valid points and are right though. <br /><br />I can't argue against statistics, I know this as well as anyone. I still am not sure I have faith in the current lineup's ability to put runs on the board. Of course I thought the lineup in the 90's should have put runs on the board and won a couple of World Series but that didn't happen either. <br /><br />You make completely valid and evidence-based points. This Braves team has been the most frustrating Braves team in a long while for me. They just frustrate the shit out of me. I'm not going to whine about my team, but I should quit whining about the offense for the Braves. I need to have better perspective, which I usually have, but I think too many days of bizarre batting orders that feature Matt Diaz third and Melky 5th with Brooks Conrad playing a large part in the offense taking a toll on my mind. <br /><br />I think I've lost perspective on the lineup at some point and I need to get that back. The National League did have some weak lineups and the Braves were one of the deeper teams (earlier in the year), so I will quit whining now.Bengoodfellahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09401971573776672570noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-102327997051254703.post-61757429024533917782010-10-06T03:52:18.312-04:002010-10-06T03:52:18.312-04:00different anon here,
yes runs can be misleading b...different anon here,<br /><br />yes runs can be misleading but thankfully we have fangraphs WAR for teams in different components like team batting, team fielding, and team pitching.<br /><br />they rank the braves offensive component of WAR as 3rd best in the NL so this seems to indicate that yes the braves hitters were better than the average league hitting<br /><br />btw to see how runs can be misleading check out the phillies. they had the second most runs in the NL yet their offensive component of WAR ranked just below the braves and the raw total of the phillies offensive WAR component wasn't anywhere close to the top 2 teams in hitters WAR, the Reds and Brewers. those two teams more than doubled the phillies offensive WAR even though the phillies outscored the brewcrew and were close with the Reds in runs scored. part of this is due to ballpark effect adjustments but there must be more to it than that for such a drastic difference. perhaps the phillies are the better example of a team with a lot of really high scoring games that have masked way too many low scoring games, thus rendering the average misleading. judging from the number of losses that hamels and halladay have i bet that team had plenty of games where they barely scored any runs.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-102327997051254703.post-65449399262061678972010-10-06T02:54:54.281-04:002010-10-06T02:54:54.281-04:00I have no idea about the variance of the offense, ...I have no idea about the variance of the offense, which is a great term Anon, it sums up what I was thinking, but I remember the Indians of the mid-90's, and while they seemed like an offensive juggernaut, it was only partly true. It was part of my introduction to better stat systems. I think it was Thomas Boswell of all folks, who graphed out that against #3-5 starters the Indians scored something like 75% of their runs, or some absurd number. It was way out of whack even based on how many more runs typical teams scored against bad pitching, because the Indians absolutely clobbered bad pitching. Against #1 and 2 starters though, they were actually below league average. I was wondering if the Braves offense acted similarly.<br /><br />I know if a hitter hit .340, 60 home runs, and had 80 rbi, most folk would think he ahd a hell of a year, and had a pee wee team trying to get on base in front of him. I know nobody would hold it against him that he didn't have 100+ rbi, which it seems Joe would want to do.<br /><br />I don't believe Joe when he tries to tell us he predicted the Yankees last year. I'm almost positive he did the same thing this year as last. "The Yankees are the best team on papaer, so you would expect them to win but in the playoffs...." No Joe, that's not a prediction you lazy fuck. No you don't get credit for telling anybody the Yankees were the best team on paper.<br /><br />I'll make my prediction. The Phils, because they can throw their front 3 like 80+% of the time in the playoffs, and it's an un-Godly front 3. I should know, I had Roy and Roy on my Ben League FF Team...<br /><br />BURN IN HELL FRANCISCO LIRIANO FOR THAT LAST START!! YOU KILLED ME!!Unknownhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02929927900897638100noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-102327997051254703.post-17995186050581990882010-10-05T23:02:18.876-04:002010-10-05T23:02:18.876-04:00Phil Hughes had 18 wins pitching under the immense...Phil Hughes had 18 wins pitching under the immense pressure of NY. I wonder if Joe has him finishing 2nd in the CY race. <br /><br />And Burnett is probably 3rd because once you adjust for NY Pressure his normalized ERA is probably in the low 2's in Joe's mind. Oh wait who am I kidding, words like "adjusted" and "normalized" probably scare Joe away. <br /><br /><br />And I don't mean to be too much of a nitpicker here, but even though you feel that the Braves didn't have a good offense this year, the fact that they scored the 5th most runs in the NL is hard to argue against. You may think that they are a high variance offense, or perhaps there runs were driven by extra good luck in situations with men on base, and you watch the Braves a lot more than me so you might be right. But at the same time, you need to consider the offenses of the other NL teams because that's ultimately what you are comparing them to to when you say a team has a good or bad offense. Some of these teams are absolutely dreadful at hitting. The Braves team OBP is .339 and that was the best in the NL. 5 NL team OBP'd under .320 (Pirates, Nationals, Pardes, Mets, Astros) and 6 other NL teams OBP'd between .320 and .325, inclusive. So while the Braves don't have good power in their lineup, they were still (relatively) very good at getting on base compared to the competition.<br /><br />Or look at it this way. As frustrated as you are with the Brave hitters, look at the lineups that some of these other NL teams are putting out there. Many of them actually are worse than the Braves. Heyward, McCann, Chipper, Prado, and Infante were all good offensive players this year (even though Chipper was not up to his normal power standards, he still OBP'd .381, which is really good). That's about half your lineup that was pretty good. And your backup catcher was one of the best hitting backup catchers in baseball this year. The entire offensive production from the Brave catchers was head and shoulders above the competition this year. Most of these other NL teams have a tough time finding 3 or 4 good offensive players in the same lineup, but the Braves probably had 4 to 5 decent players in most daily lineups. <br /><br />The injuries got out of control and things at the end were tough. Batting Melky 5th is a joke. But all in all the Brave offense was above average this year compared to some of the awful lineups that other NL teams were putting out there. <br /><br />Some of the horrible lineups like the Astros or Pirates are obvious. But there are some less obvious ones too like the Dodgers or Cubs. <br /><br />Lots of "experts" blame the Dodger woes on pitching and not having a true ace and other garbage like that. They had Kemp, Ethier, Manny, Loney, Martin and Furcal on their team this year. That sounds like a decent bunch of hitters. But they were shutout 17 times this year. They scored 1 run or fewer in 38 games (roughly 23% of their games). They scored 2 runs or fewer in 57 games. <br /><br />The Cubs were shutout 17 times this year. They scored 1 run or fewer in 39 games this year (roughly 24% of their games). They scored 2 runs or fewer in 58 games this year. These numbers are all eerily similar to that of the Dodgers (I didn't cherry pick that on purpose, I just chose 2 teams that scored a lower number of runs than the Braves but were probably perceived as much better hitting teams than Atlanta). <br /><br />Meanwhile the Braves were shutout 13 times this year. They scored 1 run or fewer in 25 games (15% of their games), and they scored 2 runs or fewer in 45 games. That might still sound kind of pathetic, but compared to the competition it is not lame at all. Keep in mind that scoring was down across the league this year.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-102327997051254703.post-4193335387645751452010-10-05T18:55:43.441-04:002010-10-05T18:55:43.441-04:00you're right, ben, but why wouldn't he? s...you're right, ben, but why wouldn't he? simmons apparantly follows baseball, plays in a fantasy baseball league, and writes about sports (in general) for a living. he's not confined to one sport a la peter king or easterbrook. <br /><br />it's baseball! it's baseball for crying out loud. the national pastime. he's written as many articles (if not more) about soccer than baseball over the past 2 years. <br /><br />and btw, the baseball attendance figures came out recently. attendance was down .3%. or basically nothing. good call on that one bill. <br /><br />ok, back to bashing joe morgan. there's only another month of joechats left (tear).Matthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14776581084879567908noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-102327997051254703.post-53967032174664529172010-10-05T18:23:09.340-04:002010-10-05T18:23:09.340-04:00Rich, those runs were pretty misleading because I ...Rich, those runs were pretty misleading because I feel like they would get a lot of runs in one game and then get shut out by a decent pitcher. The offense is pretty suspect, or at least I think it is. <br /><br />Joe doesn't understand how runs are misleading, so I don't think he can understand that Felix doesn't get to hit at all so he can't understand how wins by a pitcher aren't a good way to measure how good that pitcher is. <br /><br />I have no idea what that AJ Burnett/Felix Hernandez comparison was. They have really nothing to do with each other. <br /><br />I think minority hiring is going to be more prevalent at some point. I just look it as a team that doesn't interview or hire a minority is not a great organization to begin with and may be rejecting good talent for no good reason. <br /><br />This was a great chat. It was all about Joe misunderstanding what individual awards are and just generally being unknowledgeable...or acting that way. <br /><br />Matt, there is no way the Cy Young or MVP is a team award and not an individual award. How is an individual award a team award? It's not possible. <br /><br />I can't wait to read Joe's chat for this week. I love how he takes credit for his predictions but also refuses to make any. That's a bit contradictory. He mentions he thinks a team is the best and then later will say he predicted that team was the best. There is a difference. A reluctant answer isn't a prediction. <br /><br />Bill Simmons will not be writing a baseball column this fall. No way. He only writes when the Red Sox are involved. The only reason he would write one is to mock a Yankees loss or if something REALLY exciting happens. Then he will make up a rule for why it happened.Bengoodfellahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09401971573776672570noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-102327997051254703.post-10694567649473925772010-10-05T18:05:04.053-04:002010-10-05T18:05:04.053-04:00typical joechat.
the idea that the Cy Young is ...typical joechat. <br /><br />the idea that the Cy Young is a "team award" is funny. i think he got that idea from previous winners who say "i couldnt have won this without the help of my teammates." joe must have actually believed them. he probably believes that atheletes who thank god all the time really believe that god is the one who was responsible for scoring that winning touchdown or hitting the big homerun. <br /><br />in today's chat, joe refused to make a world series winner prediction. although he said in the very first question that the phillies are the best team on paper. he also said last year he predicted that the yankees would win. so last year he can make a prediction but he can't this year???? what gives. (prediction: a year from now if the phillies win he will claim that he predicted the phillies to win) <br /><br />quick change of subject. the baseball playoffs are about to start. i wonder if simmons will acknowledge this relatively obscure fact. since the redsox have been out of it for weeks (if not the entire year), i'm guessing not a mention of baseball in a simmons column or (not that i listen) podcast. why bother, it's only one of the 2 most popular sports in america. who would read a column on baseball if it's not about the redsox?Matthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14776581084879567908noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-102327997051254703.post-36740827835205488782010-10-05T14:47:38.803-04:002010-10-05T14:47:38.803-04:00I always thought their offense was suspect even wi...<b> I always thought their offense was suspect even with Prado.</b><br /><br />They had the 5th most runs in baseball. They also had a run differential of over +100. The question wasn't "does the Braves offense suck" (which no, it does not), it was "is it good enough to get into the playoffs?" The answer to that is yes, because they have good pitching.<br /><br /><b>I don't think you'll see them get the elite money like starters.</b><br /><br />No shit. Seriously? No one is going to shell out 20M a year for a closer? <br /><br /><b>I like what Felix Hernandez has done, but he has won only 12 games.</b><br /><br />The best thing is that Hernandez plays in the AL and so he doesn't even get to bat. He is literally powerless when it comes to his team scoring runs.<br /><br /><b>Do we look at an MVP candidate and say his team didn't give him a chance to drive in runs?</b><br /><br />Well a hitter can always drive in runs. They're called homeruns. They're quite popular in baseball these days from what I hear. But yes, if a guy hits 60 HRs and has 80 RBIs, that likely means his team isn't giving him chances to drive in runs.<br /><br /><b>Just look at AJ Burnett this year. Felix has done a good job this year, but he's not in the same difficulty level of pitching this year as CC.</b><br /><br />Just look at Wilson Valdez, he proves how good a job Ryan Howard has done this year.<br /><br /><b>There aren't places to go any more. </b><br /><br />Vegas? <br /><br /><b>In fact, MLB says you're supposed to interview minorities before you hire somebody.</b><br /><br />The Rooney rule! The single most retarded thing ever in the history of business. If a team wants to hire guy X why the fuck should they have to interview a minority first? Why should they waste their time talking to a guy with 0% shot at the job?<br /><br />I know the rule is meant to help minorities get interviews and practice, but if every interview they have is a sham... what's the point?<br /><br /><b>But, anybody, I repeat, anybody, that gets into the playoffs can get on a roll for a short period of time and make it to the World Series.</b><br /><br />What!?!?! Next you'll tell me any team that plays in baseball has a chance to make the playoffs over a grueling 162 game season.<br /><br /><b> I very rarely pick a team this early.</b><br /><br />There are four fucking teams. FOUR. When the fuck were you going to wait to pick one? After the NLCS?<br /><br /><b>JM: The Giants rotation can compete, but where are they going to score runs? </b><br /><br />Announcement: If your team's pitcher throws a shutout you can't lose. That is all. <br /><br />Announcement: The Phillies bullpen sucks ass. If the game is 0-0 going into the 7th, I'd take the Giants' bullpen over the Phillies'.FormerPhDhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12837594679660975599noreply@blogger.com