Scott Miller Mails It In

So, predictably enough, we have a slew of columns looking back at the first half of the season (although it's significantly more than half now) and making predictions of what is to come this baseball season. What I find irritating about many of these columns is that there are just a bunch of claims made with little to no evidence to support them. It's not like evidence couldn't be found, it's just abject laziness, "trust me guys, I'm a professional".

Scott Miller is one such individual.

Plenty of storylines to fuel intriguing second half

NEW YORK -- No. Florida's Dan Uggla did not whiff three times, commit three errors and ground into a double play, nominating himself for Worst All-Star in History. Right?

And the National League did not cede home-field advantage in the World Series to the AL for a sixth consecutive year. Right?

And George Steinbrenner didn't bawl his eyes out during one very sentimental and touching victory lap around Yankee Stadium during the very cool pre-All-Star Game ceremony befitting of legends. Did he?

It was all just a dream, wasn't it? A dream bridging a wholly unexpected first-half with -- dare we say it -- this handful of things to watch in the season's second-half.

this is a popular, misleading strategy. The whole "OMFG you guys it's been SO insane, SO crazy, you should totally pay even MORE attention this season because THIS season, ANYTHING could happen, unlike the normal, boring predictable season." It's all very drama queen like and is very popular. Dan Uggla had a bad game, the AL won the All-Star Game, the owner of the Yankees was emotional that this is the last year they are playing at arguably the most storied venue in American sports. These are not groundbreaking events. It's certainly not warranted for you to doubt their validity as genuine events in the external world Scott, please calm down.

The Angels are leading the AL West, the Cubs are leading the NL Central, the Diamondbacks are kinda leading the NL West (huge dissapointment) and the Phillies are leading the NL East. That is to say four of the six divisions are led by the winners last year, if anything that's higher than most years. I remember last year the ONLY team to return to the playoffs was the Yankees. Oh, and the Red Sox are looking good for a playoff spot too. Can we please be talked to like we're adults instead of children watching a toy commercial?

1. Someone get the Rays some sunblock!

It was getting awfully hot under the glare last time we saw them.

Never before has Tampa Bay won more than 70 games in one season, yet the Rays won 55 before the break. But they sure looked like the old Rays, the ones everyone in the game loved to kick around, in losing seven in a row before the break.

A harbinger of things to come for Joe Maddon's squad? Or a simple dry spell that strikes everyone during the course of a wickedly long season?

"The break couldn't have come at a better time for us," admitted Evan Longoria. Tampa Bay's rookie sensation. "We needed to get away from it, get our minds right."

No kidding. The thinking here is it may be too much to expect Tampa Bay to finish with the game's best record, which the Rays held for most of June, but this team is talented enough to stick around for the long haul. And we're talking 2008, not 2009 or 2010.

there you go kids, the thinking is that they can't keep it up. What is that thinking? Never you worry your pretty little heads about it. Carl Crawford is having his worst year since 2003, considering he's just one year away from the mythical, Bill James blessed age of 27, you would think his OPS of .696 is in for a big boost (career average of .763). He's even struggling on the basepaths (23/7 against season totals of 50/10, 58/9, 46/8 in recent years). That should help, particulary because the Rays are kind of a mediocre offensive club and Crawford remains their best hitter.

There's nothing THAT surprising about the rotations performance either. Here's what I found about Matt Garza. Sure, Kazmir is having a career year (3.04 ERA, half run below career, finally got his walks under control, 3.36/9 innings vs 4.03/9 innings for his career, he leads all AL starters in K/9 with 9.87, he's seventh in batting average against in the AL) but he's always been good and is young and improving, there's no reason to be surprised by this. Shields too is in a similar boat, although he's basically replicating last year, literally the definition of not being surprising. Every reason to think these guys can keep playing well, Dan Wheeler has long had a reputation as a very good reliever.


Here are other hitters playing worse than last year;


Akinori Iwamura (OPS down from .770 to .729, mainly due to power issues, very difficult to imagine he'd be worse after a year adjusting to American pitching, seems likely to rebound to at least match 2007's production. That means an OPS of something like .830 the rest of the way)


Carlos Pena (the fall off from last year was inevidible, but it is probably much worse than the Rays hoped after signing him for 6 million in the offseason. He's currently keeping his place on the strength of 14 home runs, but offering little else. It's difficult to see him hitting .234/.337/.431, he's only thirty and you'd hope that average in particular has got some ability to rise)


Cliff Floyd (actually hitting with more power than next year, but only OBPing .345, the second worst result since 2002. He's 35 so this may be it, there's no reason to feel he must rebound, but I'm just saying that this is the fourth hitter relatively underperforming and Tampa Bay has endured)


Jonny Gomes (a player the Rays might actually have been relying on somewhat considering he's 27, has been terrible, worst year of his career, he's essentially useless at .185/.292/.395)

Rocco Baldelli (consider him a write-off myself and never thought he was that good even when he did play but some people, probably some in the Rays organisation too, think he's the best thing since sliced bread. He hasn't played this year and may be available for the second half)

Iwamura, Crawford and Pena were probably considered their three most important position players at the start of the year. ALL are underperforming, in Pena and Crawford's case, significantly so. Admittedly their pythag is only fifth in the majors and they are terrible on the road where they play 58% of their remaining games, but there are plenty of reasons to keep the faith. At the very least, if you don't think they will, reference this stuff.

B.J. Upton says he knew this spring that the Rays had enough talent to win, but that the biggest question was whether they thought they were ready to win. With Upton, Carl Crawford, Longoria and superb pitchers Scott Kazmir, James Shields, Matt Garza and others, Tampa Bay already has answered the question.

I think you'll find Crawford hasn't been a particulary key cog in this team so far but yes, I suppose confidence was an issue for this club, sure.

Now the Rays, who have already swept Boston, the Cubs and the Los Angeles Angels, among others this year, stand ready for their next test, as Upton envisioned it: Do they have enough maturity to win during the stretch run?

"I see what he's saying," Longoria said of Upton. "We don't have a lot of guys with postseason experience, with big-game experience. We're going to have to find ways to lean on each other. We've played some big games this year. Just not playoffs."

I'd be more concerned about the looming Yankees, AL East in general, the offensive dependency on a few players and all those road games, but that's me.

Miller then talks about the Cubs which is inoffensive, if uninformative, but then this...

3. About those 1,000 runs scored ...

They're taking the bulldozers to old Tiger Stadium as we speak (sniff, sniff). But will manager Jim Leyland be able to prevent his underachieving club from being reduced to rubble before '08 expires?

Once figured to break all sorts of scoring records, the Tigers instead are 47-47 at the break, third in the AL Central and have been whitewashed a major league-leading 10 times. As summer's humidity settles in, it's still difficult to see Miguel Cabrera, Carlos Guillen, Marcus Thames, Curtis Granderson, Pudge Rodriguez and the rest failing to put on scoring clinics. Justin Verlander is dominating again.

well I wouldn't be relying on I-Rod for offense at this stage of his career and it's weird he doesn't mention Polanco (former batting champion in 2005, and I'm just gonna guess his .341 was also league tops in 2007, could well be wrong) even if it is empty average and Edgar Renteria (getting paid 10 million to OPS .637) but my main point here is how can you not mention that they are 47-39 since losing their first eight?

That record compares favourably with all of the AL heavyweights, and of special note, particulary well with Chicago (50-38) and Minny (51-37).

4. Question for the Phillies

Given the way the New York Mets and Florida hung around .500 most of the first half, shouldn't Philadelphia own far more than a measly half-game lead over the Mets and a 1½-game margin over the Marlins?

Doesn't this suddenly appear to be the most tenuous grip on first place of any division leader?

Will the Phils live to regret a lost opportunity?

OK, those are questions, plural, for the Phillies.

and not very good ones.

First things first, the Marlins are going nowhere, their Pythag is five full games worse than their actual record, while the Phillies have actually been unlucky to the extent of three games. Secondly, the Mets have a pretty awesome team and this should be a two horse race. The Phillies haven't blown anything, if you told them they'd lead the NL East at the All Star break, I think they'd be over the moon considering their biggest rival just got the best pitcher in the game.

"It's a long season, and you're going to have your ups and downs," second baseman Chase Utley says. "I try to focus on the positives. We're still in first place. The Mets are playing really well. Florida is playing really well.

I am certain Utley was baited into this response, the positives are many, and easily outweigh the negatives, it doesn't mean they are going to run away with what is a pretty good division.

"We need to continue to improve if we want to make the playoffs."

Yes, indeedy. And probably the two best starting pitchers available, Sabathia and Harden, already are off the trade market. The Phillies tried hard to get Sabathia. Then they regrouped, and they're talking with Seattle about Erik Bedard and have inquired about Toronto's A.J. Burnett. But there are character and health concerns surrounding both.

I'm not saying Joe Blanton is Brandon Webb, but I'd sure as hell prefer him to A.J.Burnett, the Phillies have already had just about the worst luck with injuries in the majors over the past two years, getting Burnett would be just asking for it.

if Philadelphia doesn't make the playoffs, it almost certainly means the Mets will, and there's no shame in that, but Philly is very well positioned. Ryan Howard obviously will OPS better than .835 (his Iso Power is down to .277 from .316 last year and .346 two years ago, it's not just the average). He's already OPSing 1.234 in July, he has ten homers in his last 63 ABs. But what Miller suggests here is that the Phillies have frittered away some position of absolute strength and that's just not true.

They have a 1.0 game lead now, they had a 2.0 game lead a month ago. Two months ago they were third in the division. To paint them as a prohibitive favourite who is choking is ridiculous.

5. Is Jerry Manuel a licensed miracle worker?

The Mets were the polar opposite of Tampa Bay as the first half finished, closing with nine consecutive wins and newfound optimism.

Outfielder Moises Alou likely is out for the season, but Ryan Church will be back and the Mets still boast ace Johan Santana. Manuel has organized his bullpen and loosened his clubhouse. He likes the music turned up and the moping turned down.

Biggest difference between the way the Mets started the season (disappointing) and the way they finished it (hotter than a $3 bill)?

"For me, you're a little snakebitten after what happened last September and then with our slow start," third baseman David Wright says. "You lack confidence as a team. Once we took three of four from Philadelphia, then we beat Tim Lincecum (San Francisco's ace) and took three in a row from the Giants and three in a row from Colorado, you get that swagger back. You go out expecting to win."

Randolph's famous, controversial music ban, so widely reported in the media, was clearly the reason for the slow start. If only he knew the secret. I also notice David Wright doesn't mention Manuel once in what is a lengthy answer, great reporting there Scott.

False swagger alert: Remember, the last six of the Mets' nine consecutive wins were authored against woeful NL West clubs. Give them credit for winning games, because you play who the schedule tells you to play. But gobbling up NL West teams is like wolfing down a bowl of tapioca pudding. Tastes good, no nutritional value.

well yeah it has value, they just made up like five games in less than two weeks. "Give them credit, but don't give them credit." On the fourth of July, the Mets were 42-44, they then won ten straight to make up 5.5 games and tie for the NL East lead. They've since slid back ever so slightly, but I think if they win the NL East by two games, they'll consider those games pretty fucking valuable Scott. Also, no mention of Manuel at all, aside from his love of loud music, even the episode that sings his praises doesn't mention him, it's like he realised it was a mistake the moment he wrote it.

6. Big Papi's wrist

When we last saw the Red Sox, David Ortiz was just resuming batting practice after mucho missed time because of a wrist injury. That's the sort of thing that could nag a big slugger like Ortiz for the rest of the season, because a hitter can't exactly protect his wrist. Consequently, it's also the sort of thing that could really nag a team like the Red Sox, who have just settled back into first place as they gun for a third World Series title in five seasons.

fair enough.

The Red Sox may be the new Yankees, but Ortiz is the key.

with all due respect, I think you will find it is Jason Varitek, Scott.

If he's back slugging within a month, as Ortiz and the Sox expect, everything is copasetic. If not, the Red Sox have a Papi-sized hole in the middle of their lineup.

I'd like to think Scott Miller typed "good" into his word processor before pressing f7.

So, your point is, if Ortiz is good, it will help the Red Sox, and if he's not, it will be bad for them. I'm glad you're on our team man, if these powers of analysis fell in the wrong hands, I shudder at the possibilities.

"Hopefully, everything will come through the way I'm expecting," the optimistic Ortiz says.

And his wrists did look strong as he signed an autograph for singer Sheryl Crow a couple of moments later.

I've seen enough, colour me sold.

7. Tick, tick, tick

That's not Uggla's glove about to explode, it's the approaching trade deadline. Don't get too excited, all you rumor-mongers, because it's difficult to envision any deals matching the juice the Cubs and Brewers already have provided in dealing for Harden and Sabathia.

But, for those who love July 31 and all days approaching it ... there are a few names worth watching who could impact the division races.

Pittsburgh has a pair of outfielders it may move, Jason Bay and Xavier Nady. The New York Mets sure could use one of them. So could Arizona, with Eric Byrnes out for the season.

*yawn* literally the same names and same teams I've seen everywhere. All you need to mention is Matt Holliday to complete the set of obvious, uninteresting names. Also, glove about to explode? What?

Toronto's Burnett could be the next starting pitcher to go, but he comes with a warning label because of his frequency of disabled-list trips and because of the out clause in his contract. He can opt out after this season, which could make him an expensive three-month rental ... or, if he bombs in a new locale, could leave the acquiring team stuck with a bad contract. Either way, it isn't much of a winning situation if you trade for him.

you've just witnessed the most obvious insight in the history of journalism, remember where you are right now.

Colorado is continuing to consider whether to deal outfielder Matt Holliday...

there he is, well done.

who reminded again with his solo shot in the All-Star Game that he can flat-out rake.

in all fairness, he has 15 home runs, is fourth in the NL in hitting and fifth in OPS. If you needed reminding that he can rake, you probably shouldn't be in the position to make trades for a professional baseball team. You also probably shouldn't be the kind of person who is mesmerised by a single home run.

Then there is some Barry Bonds stuff which has been beaten to death. No reflective baseball column would be complete without a Bonds mention. Perhaps he needs to be invited to the All Star Game, hit a home run so some GM can see and go "oh yeah, that reminds me, Barry Bonds can flat-out rake".