Prediction Friday

I like to make predictions, and fortunately so do many sportswriters, which gives me an opportunity to not only mock them but give my opinion and solicit other opinions at the same time. Sportswriters like John Lopez also like to make predictions based on what people think are the "trendy" picks in the NFL.

Though I would argue with some of these picks being "trendy" because generally the sportswriters tend to cover the teams extensively and then because they as sportswriters think the teams will be good, just go ahead and label that team "trendy" even if it is one person's opinion and not an actual trend. I will try to ignore this and carry on.

This is my first chance before this upcoming season to do a little NFL discussing. Let's see what John Lopez thinks is "trendy."

The trendy pick: A Cowboys Super Bowl run?

I think predicting the Cowboys to make the Super Bowl is pushing it just a little bit. I think the Cowboys could win a playoff game this year, which for them would be an accomplishment since it hasn't happened since 1996 (yes, I keep bringing this up because my area is full of the annoying kind of Cowboys fans).

I do believe in addition by subtraction and I think many of the distractions being gone and the fact the Cowboys still have a talented and fairly deep team could land them second place in the NFC East. Super Bowl run? I don't believe that is happening. Of course I am the same person who called the Pittsburgh offense "boring and predictable," or something to that effect but meant it in a good way in my AFC preview, so believe me if you dare.

So will it happen?

Not likely. The Cowboys should be better and have first-rate talent, but even if everything goes swimmingly, it would be hard to pass the Giants and Eagles.

I am not as on the Eagles bandwagon as everyone else (Peter King) seems to be. I like LeSean McCoy and thought he should have gone higher in the draft over guys like Donald Brown and Beanie Wells, but they are relying on some really young receivers to carry the load in a tough division. I am not even counting the impact of the loss of Jim Johnson, Brian Dawkins, and Stewart Bradley on defense. Throw in the fact Donovan McNabb has an injury history and with him missing a couple games I can see the Cowboys sliding into the #2 spot in the competitive NFC East.

The trendy pick: The Chargers (for the 9,786th time), could win it all.

Not to go Bill Simmons on everyone, but this is not happening while Norv Turner is the head coach. He is a great offensive coordinator but he is not a great head coach. I think the Chargers have enough firepower and play in a crappy enough division to where they could get a bye week for the playoffs but I don't enough faith they could go much further than that. I want to like the combination of mighty mite Darren Sproles and Tomlinson but I don't believe Sproles can handle carrying the ball 15 times a game and I am not sure how much Tomlinson has left in him. I see the running game as a bit of a mystery this year (Of course since it is another contract year for Sproles he will prove me wrong by gaining 3,000 total yards).

So, will it happen?

Yes. This time, yes. The Chargers could finally get over the hump. Ultimately, players make the biggest difference, and while the Steelers, Patriots and Colts are deservedly favored, San Diego's talent takes a backseat to no one.

Players do make the biggest difference as seen last year when the Steelers and Cardinals clearly had the most talented teams in the NFL (Waiting for everyone to get my sarcasm). San Diego's talent may not take a backseat to anyone and Chris Chambers may rebound from a subpar year last year but I just don't see the Chargers getting over the hump. They seem like a team that will just never be able to put it all together in one season and win a Super Bowl. They have the talent but lack the coaching and some weird intangible I can't put my finger on.

The trendy pick: The 49ers will make a glorious return under Mike Singletary

Return to what? That would be my question. Respectability? Not if they are planning on starting Alex Smith at the QB position. Everyone loves Patrick Willis and I think Shaun Hill can get the job done at QB if given the chance, unfortunately in the NFL having strength at the offensive and defensive lines is especially important and the 49ers have neither. The offensive line is mediocre and they really don't have any one who can rush the passer. Throw in the fact Michael Crabtree is threatening to not sign a contract and enter the 2010 draft and it doesn't seem like their year to make a "glorious return" to anything.

So, will it happen?

No way. Singletary deserved this chance he's gotten, but too many things are stacked against him. He'll get this club playing good football and toughen it up, but by midseason, expect a big crash.

The fact he is inheriting a bad team that has wasted high draft picks on average players like Manny Lawson, Alex Smith, Vernon Davis, Kentwan Balmer, and Rashaun Woods hasn't helped the team at all. I can see the 49ers being better than last year but I don't know if 2nd/3rd place in the NFC West qualifies as a glorious return.

The trendy pick: The Texans are headed to the playoffs

I do see this happening this year actually. Just for right now, and this could change due to injuries or some other unforseen circumstance, I see the playoffs as the Texans, Colts, Steelers, Patriots, San Diego, and Bills. My biggest question about the Texans is their ability to run the ball but I think Steve Slaton is going to have a good year and the Texan defense is bound to be pretty good with some of the good young players they have, even if they weren't very good last year.

So, will it happen?

Yes, print those playoff tickets, Texans fans. Matt Schaub is due a full, healthy season. And when he's on the field, nobody stops this offense.

I don't know if a quarterback is actually ever "due" a healthy season but Schaub is bound to stay healthier this year than last year, though if he does get hurt, I am calling all bets off. We all know from Peter's King brilliant analysis that Dan Orlovsky won't be able to handle the load. The defense needs to step up a little more to get this done, which I believe will happen. Every year someone says the Texans will make it to the playoffs and this year it just happens to be true.

The trendy pick: The Chiefs are on their way back.

Again, this is sort of a vague statement. The Chiefs will be back at some point and as bad as they were last year, they can't go anywhere else but up at this point. Plus they have Matty Icccccccce 1 (or 2, I can't remember which one Matt Ryan is). Everyone knows that good teams give quarterbacks who have had one good year in the NFL, with a team that has successfully plugged players in the system and then watched them leave and do nothing, huge new contracts. That's what good teams do right? They commit themselves long term to guys who have had one good year and no prior track record other than that.

Throw in the fact Todd Haley has a history of getting into sideline arguments with his players and it took him three quarters to open up the offense in the Super Bowl and I even have major questions about the coaching staff.

Of course the Chiefs are on their way back, they can't get much lower, but I don't think it is going to be this year or next year and I don't even know if Matt Cassel is the guy to do it.

So, will it happen?

Nope. It's just asking too much. The Chiefs have cleared some cap space, but they are at least four or five years away.

That's just an ignorant statement. If Todd Haley and Scott Pioli are the guys to turn this around they will have it turned around in less time than that. If they are not the guys to do it, then it may take longer, but there is no way these guys stick around if it takes 4 years to turn the team around and make them respectable again. They will be fired before that point. The Dolphins turned their team around in one year last year and the Panthers went from 1-15 to the Super Bowl in two years. Four or five years is an incredible amount of time in the NFL and this regime won't get that long to turn it around.

The trendy pick: The Bears are going to shock the NFL world.

And have a receiver that catches more than 40 passes or one that exceeds 600 yards receiving? All kidding aside, the Jay Cutler trade has really given Bears fans hope. I am here to knock some of that hope down. The offensive line is just a huge question mark, the defense has gotten old over the past two seasons, and I just don't know who is supposed to catch the ball for them.

I think the defense can turn it around and will do so, the offensive line helped Forte last year have a great rookie season, but I still don't know how this is going to work with the complete lack of receivers for Cutler. Cutler is a great QB but he also has had some good receivers to throw the ball to and an absolutely great offensive line in Denver. Orlando Pace doesn't have too much left in him and I wonder how Cutler will play without great time to throw the ball and great receivers to throw the ball to.

So, will it happen?

Yup. Fear the Bears in 2009. I'm not saying Super Bowl, but if Cutler has any receiver step up, good things will happen.

I did like Earl Bennett coming out of Vanderbilt but the fact he couldn't find the field last year for the Bears make me nervous for his prospects this year. I don't know if the Bears are good enough to win the division and I don't think one of the Wild Cards is coming from this division either. The Bears can win the division and they will as long as a receiver other than Hester steps up, the defense doesn't keep going backwards and the offensive line gives Cutler the time he is used to in throwing. That seems like a lot to have happen but the division is for the taking.

The Vikings flirted with Brett Favre for a reason. And the Packers playing footsy with Michael Vick? Not exactly a confidence-booster.

I don't think the off season moves by the other teams in the division mean necessarily these teams fear the Bears. I know John Lopez is not saying they will make the Super Bowl but the Bears couldn't make the playoffs last year when the Packers stunk and the Lions did not win a game. I know the addition of Cutler is supposed to be the thing that gets the Bears over the hump, but I can't ignore the defense's slow decline and the fact the O-line is a bit of a mystery for them.

-Back to Michael Crabtree. I am going to try and be as impolite as possible about this. What the hell is he thinking?

Per a league source, agent Eugene Parker is telling the 49ers that Crabtree will sit out the season and re-enter the draft in 2010, unless the team gives Crabtree what he wants.

Michael Crabtree is a damn idiot. This is the NFL, not high school or college where there are only a couple guys who know exactly what the hell they are doing. Not to mention he is a rookie receiver, which is a position that has seemed to have quite a learning curve in the past. He needs to get his ass on the field and start to play football. He's an idiot. He can be replaced in a heartbeat...even on a team that is not great like the 49ers.

I defended Crabtree when he came out of the draft because I thought he was the best receiver available and didn't get it when people talked about character issues he has. Now I get it. The worst part is that his agents haven't even made a fucking offer to the 49ers yet! I can't use exclamation points enough for this. Rookies need to sign and get on the field to play with their team.

Rookies in the NFL aren't special anymore and there are 10 other guys who can do exactly what you can as a rookie (in most cases). There's no difference in $42 million guaranteed and $48 million guaranteed but there is a huge difference in starting the season on the second unit on the depth chart and starting the season in the starting lineup. Throw in the fact he had a major-ish surgery before the draft, which may or may not have caused his stock to drop, and it is clear to me he needs to get on the field and play football.

Let him sit out the entire year and entire the draft. It's clear he and his agent haven't thought this through. The 49ers hold his rights until Draft Day. That means he can't go to the Combine again or do anything football related with other teams. He can do it on his own and let the media attend or he can send out in a press release what happened but he can't work for other teams and if a team is going to draft him, especially after he showed what an asshole he can be and his injury this past year, they are going to want to watch him play.

Michael Crabtree could very well be a great receiver but I am a firm believer a rookie has more to lose than to gain by holding out of training camp, especially a rookie wide receiver. The NFL isn't easy and it is important to be in training camp adjusting to the speed of the game. The 49ers may be desperate and give him a chance once (or if) he signs a contract to play with the first team but he has to learn the playbook and be out there with his teammates. He has the prima donna part of being an NFL receiver down, but now he just needs to prove he can actually play. He's an idiot right now though.

-I know from previous experience here that I seem to be one of the few people who cares about NCAA college basketball but that is not going to stop me from commenting on it. Dick Vitale has his preseason Top 40. Why Top 40 instead of Top 25 or Top 50? Because it is Dick Vitale and he does things his way I guess. I have gotten to the point I can't hear him call a game anymore because he spends so much time talking about other topics not related to college basketball, it is just annoying.

I have some problems with his preseason predictions...I admittedly am a little bit of a snob about college basketball. I don't know it all, because no one does, but I feel like I have a firm enough grasp of it to make predictions and be semi-accurate. Last year I predicted UNC would win the National Championship back in July 2008 (I said no one should beat them for the upcoming year, it's really the same thing I guess) and I basically beat the drum for them all year. That's a lot of pressure for me this year to predict correctly again.

1. Kansas:

I know everyone is awaiting my choice for National Champion but it is not as clear cut for me this year. If I had to choose right now, I would say Kansas is my choice, simply because they have experience at PG, a big man to rebound and control the paint and two athletic wing players in Henry and Taylor. It's a formula for success in college basketball. A lot of people talk about depth being important, but it is not as important if you have starters you can trust to not get tired or foul out. Kansas has a couple of guys off the bench they can count on and that's all you need to win a National Championship.

2. Kentucky

Putting aside the fact I hate Kentucky and John Calipari, I will try to be neutral. They have A LOT of talent on that roster and a lot of young talent, which sometimes can be a bad thing. I think #2 is a bit high for them because on some nights they are going to be on and other nights I can see them being a mess. I just don't know how they are going to keep all those players happy and give them shots. Calipari will find a way I am sure. I think the best part of the year will be to see the mass exodus of players from Kentucky to the NBA. Just off the top of my head Cousins, Wall, Patterson, and very possibly Daniel Orton will go pro.

3. Michigan State

They are not an elite team this year. I believe they overachieved last year and I see them as being more of a #8-#15 team. Of course I also didn't see them making the National Championship game last year.

5. Duke:

Same thing for these guys. They are consistently over ranked because people look at the name. They still have no big men, don't have a tough rebounding type player on the roster and have three total guards on the roster worth even putting on the floor, and one of them is a freshman and none are point guards. I would put them in the top 5 if they either had a big man worth a crap or a point guard at all on the roster. The fact is they don't, so Dick Vitale needs to quit jumping on the bandwagon, stop over ranking Duke, and face reality.

(One reason I hate the Interwebs, I wrote this last night and today the Big Lead put this up. They are much more widely read so it looks like I am copying them by saying this. How dare two people have the same point of view. This is America dammit!)

7. Villanova:

I love this team this year and would move them up into the top 5 in the preseason rankings. This is my #3 team in the country. They kept Stokes, Fisher, and Reynolds around and have a top 5 recruiting class coming in. Size may be a bit of a problem because the little skill size they have are freshmen but I really, really like this team. If you put a gun to my head I would say I have Villanova and Kansas in the National Championship game.

8. North Carolina:

Schedule them for a National Championship in two more years. The talent is still there this year and I think this is the right spot for them, they just need more experience.

10. Illinois:
11. Michigan:

I think Michigan deserves this spot but Illinois is over ranked here. Put them at #20 at the maximum because they had a good, not great class this past year. I don't see Illinois making this much noise this year even in a fairly weak Big 10.

15. Florida State:

This team has height on the roster to spare and that height has athleticism and talent. I do question whether Leonard Hamilton is the right coach. He let his team stand around and watch Toney Douglas a little bit too much last year. I would push FSU to #18-#20 for the year. Dick Vitale always over ranks ACC teams.

17. Syracuse
18. Mississippi State

I actually don't love Syracuse as much this year for some reason. I like that they actually recruited a young guy who made Paul Harris expendable in DaShonte Riley but otherwise I am not jumping up and down at this point. I think they hover in and out of the Top 25 this year.

I do like Mississippi State though, even if they did recruit the turd in human form Renaldo Sydney. If they can keep him under control then I can see MSU in the Top 15 all year.

20. Georgia Tech

They did get Derrick Favors who is going to be a one man wrecking crew this year but there is no fucking way they are a Top 20 team in the preseason. No way. After stinking up the ACC last year they are going to be a Top 20 team after one year? I don't see it happening.

22. Florida
23. Butler

I would move both of these teams up 5 or 6 spots. Butler and Florida are going to be Top 20 teams this year.

24. Ohio State
26. Boston College
28. Notre Dame

I don't even think Notre Dame is a Top 40 team this year. Move the other two teams back two spots because I don't think either team is good enough to be in the Top 25 either.

29. Clemson

They will move up to #12 after starting 15-0 like they do every year and then end the season out of the Top 25 near this spot.

30. Oklahoma State
33. Minnesota

Both these teams are better than this. I would move Minnesota into the Top 25. Tubby Smith can recruit and this year he has a team with depth but may lack a go to guy, which could limit their chances of winning a couple games and me moving them up further. I would even move Oklahoma State into the Top 15...maybe not all year but for 50% of the year. How's that for hedging?

35. Siena
37. Tulsa

Both of these teams should be in the Top 25 at many points during this year but will not make it as much as they should because of the conferences they play in. Then in the NCAA Tournament the same "experts" who refused to vote them into the Top 25 in the AP Poll will talk about how "dangerous" they are when going against a higher seed in the second round as a #7 or #8 seed. It happens every year and never fails to annoy me.

I noticed one big omission from this list and that was UCLA. I can't help but think they should be ranked in the Top 40 of this list. I put Indiana as my other sleeper team for this year. Yes, I realize I chose two teams that are big name programs but I think both of them are going to be better than expected this year.

I haven't seen any of these teams play yet, so I am sure they will make me look stupid and not fulfill my predictions. Please forgive me if I change my opinion on some of these teams as we get closer to the season as things change for each team and injuries occur. My goal is to get one person to actually care about college basketball. I think I can do it. I am not trying to make fans, just make people not skip over the occasional college basketball stuff on this here blog.