Bert Blyleven Talks About Stephen Strasburg and Of Course Himself

We still have some room in the Yahoo Fantasy Baseball League. I think there are 3 slots left. The League ID is "420904" and the password is "eckstein." If anyone who wants to join has recommendations or preferences on how the league is set up, just use the message board for the league to say what you think. Everyone feel free to join.

We haven't heard from Bert Blyleven in a while. Fortunately he has posted a column about Stephen Strasburg and whether the Nationals should let him start the season on the team or not. I think don't the Nationals should...and of course it turns out they agreed. Either way, Bert Blyleven's explanation of why Strasburg should have started the season with the Nationals doesn't make a lot of sense the more he explains it. He lists criteria for when a young pitcher would be successful and the Nationals meet few of these criteria. I think the Nationals made the right move in putting Strasburg down at AA for a couple of reasons. Bert pretty much ignores any reason other than reasons based on Strasburg's potential.

The Washington Nationals aren’t quite sure what to do with Stephen Strasburg.

There's a shocker. When are the Nationals sure about anything really? They do know how to lose ball games and come in last in the National League East. That's about all they seem to be sure about. Oh yeah, they are also sure they are going to get some good prospects for Adam Dunn at the trade deadline this year.

On one hand, they have a pitcher with tremendous talent, a player who has breezed through his spring training appearances with ease, a No. 1 draft pick who they’ve lavished with a record $15.1 million contract.

On the other hand, there is no way if he succeeds he will stay on the Nationals team as soon as he becomes a free agent...even towards the last years of his arbitration years when other teams are going to want to trade for him and he becomes expensive for the Nationals to keep.

This is a franchise that has struggled mightily, losing 205 games over the last two seasons. Attendance has been poor and the play on the field even worse. The Nationals need some hope and an identity, so the temptation to rush their prized, young arm to the major leagues must be great.

They have him. Now the goal is to not fuck him up. Good luck with that.

But this team is not built to win just yet, as there are still many pieces to be put into place.

I will redo this sentence:

"But this team is not built to win, as they need an outfield, shortstop, second baseman, catcher, 3/5 of a starting rotation (including Strasburg), and three more quality pitchers in the bullpen. Other than that, they are right on the cusp of winning."

Also, why rush a pitcher to the majors when the team isn't even close to being ready to win?

So they must also be tempted to treat Strasburg with kid gloves. To bring him along slowly until they are certain he is ready.

Actually I think the temptation would be to throw him out there ASAP and sell some tickets before the fans completely give up on the team. (Do the Nationals have fans?)

Should the Nats throw Strasburg into action and risk putting undo pressure on his young arm and his confidence, or should they play it safe and save him for later?

What kind of undo pressure will pitching in the major leagues put on his arm that pitching in the minor leagues wouldn't put on his arm? The velocity is the same, sure major league hitters are better hitters, but it's not like 6 innings at AA are easier to throw mechanically than 6 innings in the majors. Sure, the hitters are tougher and it is may be more difficult to get outs, but 75 pitches in the majors is pretty much the same as 75 pitches in the minors. If they are worried about him, give him a pitch count and make sure you don't overwork him.

Or is that making this too easy?

But if they deem him ready physically, and provide the proper support around him, I believe they should take the chance and give Nats fans a reason to come to the ballpark.

Strasburg is physically ready. I don't think there is any doubt about that. If the Nationals wanted to wait for the proper support to surround him with then he would probably never make it to the major leagues...at least not with the Nationals. I think this, and financial reasons, were the reasons they sent him to AA.

As far as giving fans a reason to come to the park, he is only pitching once every five days, so what do the Nationals do to get fans to that ballpark the other four days when Strasburg isn't pitching?

Now that we have gotten past the introduction to the column, let's allow Bert Blyleven to talk about himself for a little bit. There is a line between giving your opinion as an ex-baseball player and bragging about your time in the majors. Bert loves to straddle this line.

I entered the majors with the Twins with a June call-up in 1970. I was only 19 and had only spent 1½ seasons in the minors, but even though I was young, I knew I was ready for the leap to the bigs both physically and mentally.

Of course he knows he was ready physically and mentally in retrospect. Really there is no certain way of knowing a player is mentally ready for the major leagues until he gets there. For some players a team may have a good idea if he is ready, but there is no way to know for sure. So it's easy for him to say now that he was physically and mentally ready.

John Olerud did it in 1989 and had a long, successful career, never playing in the minors until his attempt to hang on with the Red Sox in 2005. Jim Abbott (1989) and Pete Incaviglia (1986) also went straight to the majors and didn’t play in the minors until late in their careers.

All of these players played baseball in college and were drafted out of college to play in the majors...just like Strasburg.

But there are also cautionary tales as well, including two pitchers — David Clyde and Eddie Bane — who went straight to the majors the same year as Winfield, 1973.

David Clyde was 18 years old when he went straight to the majors. Eddie Bane went to college and David Winfield went to college as well. Both of these players went straight to the majors after college. David Clyde, probably the highest profile failure, did not. Anyone with an IQ over 50 can see even from this small sample size that a player should probably go to college before skipping the minor leagues and going to the major leagues immediately.

Of course Strasburg did go to college, so I would put him under the category of players like Abbott and Bane and not compare him so much to the David Clyde situation, which was pretty poorly managed at the time by the Rangers.

Clyde had a great arm, and Whitey Herzog once said he was “one of the best young left-handed pitchers I’ve ever seen.” But it takes more than a great arm to succeed. And perhaps rushed too quickly, Clyde saw injuries derail his career. He went 18-33 with a 4.63 ERA over parts of five seasons.

"Perhaps" rushed too quickly? He was 18 years old and never pitched once in the minor leagues. There is no way to actually rush a pitcher any faster than he was rushed to the majors, other than to rip him out of high school and put him in the majors immediately.

Physical issues aside, a young player needs plenty of help on the mental side of the game as well. That’s where not only your coaches, but your teammates come into play.

The Nationals have a pitching coach, Steve McCatty, who has never been a pitching coach in the major leagues before. In fact, Nationals fans didn't even seem to know who he was.

The first line of this article doesn't sound very good for the Nationals:

Steve McCatty’s ascension was almost as fast as his decline.

This in reference that McCatty went from a great pitcher to a crappy pitcher. Obviously a person doesn't have to be a great pitcher to be a great pitching coach, but McCatty really has no track record as a pitching coach and he is going to be in charge of the Nationals great young hope for the future. That has to be a little nervewracking for what little Nationals fans there are. I am not really sure how much pitching coaches really do, but the good coaches do make a difference with their pitchers and the bad ones seem to make a difference also...just in a bad way.

So basically I am saying I don't know if any of the pitchers on the Nationals roster or their pitching coach can help Strasburg with the mental part of the game. I wouldn't necessarily trust any of the current Nationals pitchers to give him advice nor do I know if McCatty is the best guy to be tutoring him either. Maybe Jason Marquis could give him advice, but other than that I don't know if there are that many qualified candidates to advise Strasburg.

I was fortunate with the Twins, as my team was loaded with good veteran players who were willing to help out a young kid.

Stephen Strasburg has Jason Marquis, John Lannan, Scott Olsen, J.D. Martin, Garrett Mock, Brian Bruney, Matt Capps, Tyler Clippard, and Jason Bergmann. It's not exactly a group of players many teams would want tutoring other young players. I probably wouldn't want Scott Olsen around any young players personally.

Luis Tiant, Jim Perry and Jim Kaat helped me out,

That's who Bert Blyleven had to tutor him. I would say "Advantage Blyleven" when it comes to this. Maybe the Nationals are counting on Jason Marquis to teach Strasburg how to have a near-.500 record and an ERA above 4.00.

and about half of our pitching staff had a lot of time under their belts by the time I came in, and those veterans were willing to show me the ropes and guide me through my rookie season.

Again, this is not the case with the pitchers around Strasburg. He is surrounded by pitchers who have been in the majors, but they haven't been terribly successful, plus they probably can't relate to what it is like having expectations put on him like Strasburg has. I find this to be a problem.

Does this mean Strasburg is going to fail? No, it doesn't, but it does mean if having good pitchers around him is important to Strasburg's development, then this could be a problem. It is also a reason in my mind to put Strasburg in the minors for a few months to start the season. Just so he can get used to non-collegiate batters before going up against major league hitters.

I can’t emphasize enough how important it is to have veteran help. It probably accounts for about 90 percent of a player learning the mental side of the game.

Bert's point of view is the Nationals should get Strasburg to the major leagues as soon as possible so he can help the team. This point of view doesn't exactly go well with his own statement that 90% of learning the mental side of the game is from veterans on the staff. The Nationals do have veterans, but Scott Olsen has his own personal problems he is dealing with to help Strasburg, so that leaves it up to the bullpen guys or Jason Marquis.

It's a sort of contradiction for Blyleven to believe Strasburg needs to be put in the majors, but he also believes it is important to have veteran help around him. The Nationals really don't have that. It's not a reason to hold Strasburg back, but it does make me wonder how Bert is so confident not giving Strasburg a month or two in the minor leagues is the right move. Obviously the Nationals agreed with me and disagreed with Bert.

In addition to your teammates, you also must have a good relationship with your position coach, in my case my pitching coach. He must understand what you’re going through and become something of a father figure.

That could very well happen, because Steve McCatty was on the cover of Sports Illustrated and from what I have read about him he seems to have been highly regarded. So he could very well be this for Strasburg. It complicates the decision on when Strasburg should pitch in the majors when Bert Blyleven says 90% of the mental aspect is learned from other veterans. At least I think it does. It also makes me wonder how Blyleven can say this and then also feel like Strasburg should have started the season in the majors.

My first pitching coach was Marv Grissom, a man I will never forget because he really helped me and brought me along. I’ll never be able to thank Grissom and my veteran teammates enough for helping me along at age 19.

In typical Bert Blyleven fashion, half of this column has been about Bert Blyleven himself and his adventures in the majors.

But what happens if he struggles? Do you send him down to the minors, or do you tell him he’s going to get a chance to work through his problems?

If Strasburg struggles and the Nationals send him down to the minors I think that would cause every Nationals fan to immediately start contemplating either switching to a different MLB team or just giving up on baseball....that's assuming there still are Washington Nationals fans out there.

I think that when a pitcher is that good, as Strasburg appears to be, you stay with him. You let him learn on the job in the big leagues. Don’t let him get too high or too low, and he’ll be fine.

How do you go about not letting Strasburg get too high or too low? Electroshock therapy. If he seems really happy, electroshock him, if he seems kind of sad, electroshock him.

In all seriousness, I am sort of with Bert on this, but he doesn't seem to realize that if Strasburg is getting killed in the majors then it may be better to send him down to the minors to gain some confidence or break any bad habits he may have. It's not like the Nationals need him pitching at the beginning of the season to avoid a last place finish.

You have to be focused to make it in the majors, and sometimes that’s hard when you’re young. For my part, I had no trouble being focused.

Well obviously. Bert Blyleven has never had trouble with anything. He was completely emotionally and physically ready when he went to the major leagues. He was like Robo-pitcher.

I didn’t want to party.

He just wanted to fart.

Strasburg has to open his heart and his soul to the idea of wanting to be the best, and he must focus on what he has to do to get there.

He also must not get too high or too low at any point either. That's important to know. The reason Joba Chamberlain is so inconsistent is because he fist pumps and acts excited after he gets out of an inning. The reason Homer Bailey has struggled in the majors is because he gets clinically depressed on the mound and rather than pitching he is singing songs by The Cure, trying to figure out the plot to "Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind" and wondering where he went wrong in his life. (In all seriousness, it is important to be balanced on the mound, but performance often dictates how a pitcher feels after a start. So it's easy to stay balanced when you pitch well).

Ok, I do know Zach Greinke had depression problems and once he beat this depression problem he became a much better pitcher. I am not being sarcastic and saying a pitcher can pitch well depressed...there are degrees of depression and excitement that affect a player's pitching ability. I am just saying, getting too high or too low isn't such a bad thing in small amounts.

It’s all about having the total package, because you can’t make it by just having a good arm.

Mark Wohlers says he doesn't understand this statement. He thought that's all you needed for success.

The Nationals have a lot of money invested in Strasburg’s arm. They’re looking to build a team — and a fan base — for the future. As long as Strasburg’s makeup is good, I say let the kid find out if he is ready.

I say let him start if he is ready as well, which he obviously is, but the decision isn't that simple. What doesn't make sense is how Bert Blyleven says 90% of the mental aspect of the game is having veterans around to help him and that is how he succeeded in the majors, yet he never once talks about how Strasburg doesn't have this. This is a pretty obvious negative to letting him start the year in the majors without some minor league seasoning.

Amid all this bullshit advice Bert Blyleven is giving right now as to whether the Nationals should start Strasburg right now or not, an important part that should be taken into account is being completely ignored. You know, the whole financial aspect of starting Strasburg in the majors at the beginning of this year. This is probably the reason the Nationals put Strasburg in AA to start the season.

It's laid out well here.

Isn't there a money aspect to this decision as well? I know Bert focuses on the "player's" point of view and all, but how can any decision on whether the Nationals should have Strasburg start the year in Washington with the Nationals be made without talking about money? I don't think it can and Bert completely ignores this aspect of the decision.

Keeping Strasburg in the minors until late May will delay him reaching free agency and slow down his arbitration eligibility. This is important for the Nationals because if Strasburg is as good as everyone seems to believe he is and will be, they need to hold on to him as long as possible. If Strasburg is a great pitcher, I can't see the Nationals being able to compete with other teams to keep his services when he becomes a free agent. Specifically putting him down in AA at the beginning of the season is as much about the future of the Nationals as it is about making sure Strasburg is ready to handle major league pitching. The future is not now for the Nationals, so why pretend it is?

Strasburg's contract covers him for the next three seasons, which are known as his "zero-to-three" years, referring to a player's service time. But Strasburg will remain under team control beyond the life of the contract -- until he reaches free agency.

A player needs six full seasons in the majors to become eligible for free agency, and a full season is defined as 172 days. However, a zero-to-three player who is optioned for fewer than 20 days gets those days added back to his service time at the end of the year. To simplify: The Nationals need to keep Strasburg in the minors for about three weeks to prevent him from having six full years of service time at the end of 2015, thus retaining his rights through 2016. It's not being cheap. It's being smart. And every team does it.

So knowing this fact, which again I can't see how Bert Blyleven completely ignored this in his "analysis," it makes complete sense for the Nationals to be cautious with Strasburg and keep him in the minors until late May. Its not like they are trying to win the pennant this year or anything. Keeping Strasburg on the roster from Opening Day could gain them 5 wins, but millions of dollars down the road, plus Strasburg will get a chance to pitch in the minors and then debut in the majors with some (hopefully) confidence in what he is doing.

I don't see how Bert can leave this financial part out of the discussion and expect to be able to give an educated opinion on what the Nationals should do.

Under the above scenario, Strasburg would be tied to the Nationals for four years beyond the life of his current contract -- 2013, 2014, 2015 and 2016...But the nature of the fourth year would depend on whether or not Strasburg will have qualified for arbitration as a "Super Two" player at the end of 2012.

I am sure a lot of people know this, but this means Strasburg could be eligible for arbitration after his third year (not full year) in the majors. So basically, if he is a good pitcher they don't want him to go to arbitration after his second year. They want to be able to slow down arbitration, sign him to an extension and buy out those years, or just not pay him that much money for his 3rd season in the majors. For a last place team, what is the point of bringing Strasburg up before late May anyway?

For the Nationals to be safe with Strasburg -- and prevent him from reaching Super Two status in 2013 -- they would probably need to keep him in the minors until late-May. If they do this, Strasburg would be considered a zero-to-three player in 2013, saving the Nationals a lot of money.

This has to be taken into account when deciding whether Strasburg should start the year in the majors or minors. The Nationals took this into account and make the smart, and easy, decision to start him in AA for the beginning of the season.

If, for argument's sake, Strasburg is as good as Lincecum, and thus is compensated equally via arbitration, his first three arbitration years will earn him $9 million, $14 million and $18 million. If Strasburg reaches Super Two status, those first three arbitration years would be 2013-15, with a fourth arbitration year in 2016, in which (in our little hypothetical universe) he would make the same $22 million as Lincecum.

This was a good article and explains exactly why Blyleven's analysis and his opinion falls short in actually discussing this situation in a fashion that gives complete information to the reader.

So, using our made-up numbers for Lincecum and applying them to Strasburg, here is what is at stake for the Nationals:

*If Strasburg reaches Super Two status, he gets: $9 million in 2013, $14 million in 2014, $18 million in 2015 and $22 million in 2016, for a total of $63 million in those four years.

*If Strasburg fails to reach super two status, he gets: $3.9 million in 2013, $9 million in 2014, $14 million in 2015 and $18 million in 2016, for a total of $44.9 million.

In other words, it could be worth about $18 million to the Nationals

So basically do the Nationals want to throw (hypothetically I admit) $18 million down the drain to get a maximum of 10 extra starts out of Strasberg? I wouldn't think so. It doesn't make financial sense at all if he ends up being as good as everyone says he should be.

One, this franchise has survived for five years without him. What's another two months?

That's a great point. In fact, that is THE point.

I don't have a general problem with Bert Blyleven's discussion of this issue, but it is the typical two-dimensional discussion of a complicated issue that some sportswriters like to make. It's all fine and good that Strasburg may be physically and emotionally ready for the major leagues, but is it even worth it for the Nationals to have him start the year with the team and start his arbitration clock early? I don't think so...and the Nationals ended up agreeing.

Even though he is obviously ready, the Nationals were right to play this one smart and keep Strasburg in the minors just to ensure he gets some confidence before he reaches the majors and to save a few million dollars down the road as well.