I enjoy covering Peter King so I thought I would cover his mailbag this week and I also wanted to go through the free agent market so far and give my opinion on some of the signings and trades that have happened. I do miss covering Gregg Easterbrook on Wednesdays, and his absence forces me to do some other things in place of covering his TMQ...which is probably a good thing...not that covering a Peter King mailbag is anything really different for me. Today, Peter responds to some reader email and tells us some MORE things he thinks, which of course I can't get enough of.
1. I like the risk the Jets are taking with time-bomb cornerback Antonio Cromartie. Yes, I'm uneasy with fronting an unreliable character $500,000 of his $1.7 million pay in 2010.
Peter also forgot that not only is Cromartie a time-bomb cornerback, he is also a lazy tackler (sorry for the bad picture on the beginning of the link) and he doesn't seem to care if anyone knows it. Is there anything more like professional sports in 2010 than a player having to be fronted $500,000 to pay child support on his 7 children? I say no. Interestingly, these are the things I LOVE about professional sports. Where else can a millionaire get fronted money to pay his child support?
But what you need to know about Rex Ryan is that for him to do everything he wants on defense, he needs two good cover corners, so he can send overload blitzes with linebackers and safeties.
I don't dislike Cromartie by any stretch of the imagination, but the Jets chose a divisive cornerback as far as what players in the locker room of San Diego thought of him, to trade for. Wasn't there a better option? If this works out, it is a great move. I am just saying I am not sure if Cromartie's talent level is worth the pain-in-the-assery he also (reportedly) brings.
If the Jets hadn't traded for Cromartie, they'd have had to draft (for sure) a cornerback at number 29 in the first round, and they'd have had to live with that rookie plus Dwight Lowery opposite Darrelle Revis this year.
So they couldn't have tried to use the pick they traded for Cromartie, trade up in the draft and tried to get a guy like Kyle Wilson or Devin McCourty? Hell, they may not have had to trade anything to get one of those two guys. I know Cromartie is a known quantity, but I do find it hard to believe he was the best actual all-around value on the market.
Instead, they get a non-physical player who's probably a top-15 cover corner in the league, and who can be put on an island the same way the Jets do with Revis.
Maybe. Do we really know? I have seen San Diego play a little bit this past year and I can't remember too many times when Cromartie was on an island, but I also may not have been paying attention to this.
"We go into this partnership with our eyes open,'' Tannenbaum told me. "But what I've found being around Rex is he's the kind of coach who can reach everybody. And 25-year-old cover corners are not available without some risk.''
Right, there is some risk with 25-year-old cover corners but most of the time the risk is on-the-field risk and not the risk he will impregnate a cheerleader and then be an asshole in the locker room. Those are the things I have read Cromartie does. It's a different kind of risk. On-the-field talent risk is one thing, but off-the-field risk is a completely different thing.
The Jets, though, need to be able to say good-bye after this year if Cromartie's a distraction. Keeping him just because they have a third-round pick invested in him would be a huge mistake if he's more trouble than he's worth.
You mean sort of like keeping Braylon Edwards around even though he isn't quite worth what he will want in free agency nor is he worth the picks they gave up for him? I know the Jets didn't have much choice in that situation because they need receivers, but it's not as easy to cut-and-run for teams when they give up draft picks for players.
What if the Bears stink this year, Peppers has one of his so-so seasons (which he's had several of in an overrated eight-year career),
Just for comparison's sake:
Peter King's favorite defensive end, Jared Allen and his stats since 2004: 72.0 sacks, 22 forced fumbles, 283 tackles and 2 interceptions.
Peter King's least favorite overrated defensive end, Julius Peppers and his stats since 2004: 62.0 sacks, 22 forced fumbles, 247 tackles, and 5 interceptions.
Clearly Allen is better, but it's not by as much as Peter King would like to have you think. Peppers also has a 2.5 sack season in there, which I am not excusing, but just mentioning when it comes to comparing how much better Allen is than him.
As I read the verbiage of Peppers' contract summary this morning, I see that "2011 roster bonus guaranteed for injury at signing then guaranteed for skill on 2/10/11.'' I doubt sincerely if the current regime survives it'll admit such a costly mistake then, but if there's a new coach and GM? You never know. It's an interesting little motivational tool for the Bears with Peppers -- but Peppers could also view it this way, "If I play poorly, I might be able to be a free agent AGAIN in 2011.''
From the perspective of the Bears, this is a good move. It's funny, because I have never thought that Peppers' agent, Carl Carey knew what he was doing, but he always comes up smelling like a rose. I don't take the contract he signed with the Bears as anything that would make me think differently either. I could have gotten Peppers a good contract because he is thought to be a great player and there were teams that wanted him. I am sure his agent sold this contract to Peppers by saying he could be a free agent again...of course nothing motivates Peppers so I wouldn't really think Peppers would care much about this. Still, I think this is an interesting clause in the contract. Enough rambling...
3. I obviously did not go far enough in my condemnation of Ben Roethlisberger in MMQB. I said we should withhold judgment until we know the full details of what happened the other night at the bar in Georgia, but wrote that if Roethlisberger is guilty of sexual assault or worse, he needs to "grow up.''
I skipped this part of MMQB on Monday, but Peter pretty much didn't condemn Roethlisberger at all. He just said Roethlisberger needed to "grow up." That's pretty underwhelming condemnation, so of course it took 40,000 people wondering if Peter is high or stupid for him to realize he was underreacting to this situation.
Obviously, if he's guilty, he deserves much more than that -- much more, like a jail term.
Perhaps Roethlisberger should have gotten drunk and then asked the girl to cross over the street in non-crosswalk area and then run her over with his car. The penalty probably would have ended up being less severe than if he is actually convicted of sexual assault.
Nobody cares about my opinion, but I think I can forget about it when he is accused of sexual assault one time by a crazy person (which the previous accuser seemed to be), but to be accused of sexual assault twice is a bit interesting. I am not saying he is guilty, but how does he end up in these situations? I have always heard Roethlisberger is a semi-asshole and if the Steelers weren't a good team his teammates would probably hate him more than they do. I know Roethlisberger's confidence struck some Steelers players a bit odd when he was just starting out in the NFL. Maybe he is an asshole in his social life as well.
Now for your e-mail:
This is always my favorite part.
From Bob Ruby of Virginia Beach, Va.: "What happens to the 2011 draft picks that were traded (i.e. Jets' 2011 pick for Cromartie) should the league strike? Do they get moved to 2012, or do the teams get conditional picks in the 2012 draft?''
I wondered this as well. See, even though he is pretty irritating and sometimes useless, Peter King does serve a purpose.
Regardless of the status of negotiations between players and owners next spring, the 2011 draft will be held as scheduled in April. It's the last event of significance on the NFL calendar if the owners lock the players out.
Great, nothing pumps me up more than thinking about an NFL Draft for a season that may or may not actually happen. I hate lockouts.
From Luke Rippee of Gardnerville, Nev.: "Peter, what about Jake Delhomme to the Buffalo Bills? I've heard the Bills would rather take a veteran quarterback than a rookie with the 9th pick in the draft.
I think the Bills would rather take a good offensive lineman. Assuming they value the life of the veteran or rookie quarterback they are looking to sign of course. I do like how this question was phrased though. It sounds like Luke is saying the Bills want to DRAFT a veteran quarterback with the 9th pick as opposed to a rookie quarterback. If this were true, let me say, Jake Delhomme is NOT worth the #9 pick in the draft. It would also not surprise me the Bills front office thinks they can draft current players.
With Delhomme, the Bills would be able to pick an offensive lineman at number nine in the first round and maybe grab a guy like Dan LeFevour in the third or fourth round to groom for the future. Is this a possibility?''
That first part sounds like a plan, but I don't know if LeFevour will last until the 3rd or 4th round. He very well may, but I don't know if I want Jake Delhomme tutoring anyone either. He's always seemed like a "by the seat of his pants" type quarterback and he actually regressed when the Panthers tried to teach him fundamentals. Jake always had a good offensive line in Carolina, I don't know if I want to see him behind a bad offensive line.
I also love it when people want to "groom" a quarterback. It just sounds so simple. You draft a quarterback, let him sit the bench for a season or two and then he is ready to start for your team. It just seems so damn simple, I wish it were more realistic sometimes. People wanting to "groom" a quarterback always forgets to two simple problems:
(1) Some quarterbacks learn better by playing in actual games and learning on the job.
(2) You can't teach a quarterback to actually be a good quarterback. So having Jake Delhomme tutor a quarterback and letting the coaching staff groom this quarterback works until you insert that guy in the lineup and realize he isn't very good. What if he isn't "groomed" in time to start? Do you just sign another veteran and wait another year or draft a young guy? I have so many questions about the "grooming" theory I sometimes hear. I am not saying it doesn't work, I just think many fans think a team can draft a late-round quarterback and start "grooming" him.
PK: It certainly should be. I'd rather have a Trent Edwards-Jake Delhomme combo at quarterback, for now,
I think this sentence has never been uttered in the history of mankind...it may never be uttered again.
From Tim of Lexington, Ky.: "You contradict yourself in your own column! In the first part you say spending the big money on WR is not worth it (and Anquan Boldin got big money even though he was traded) and then kill the Patriots for not picking one up?
This isn't the only time Peter has contradicted himself. For example, his entire MMQB was an ode to why free agency is overrated, but then he goes and wants his (presumed) favorite team to sign a big name and expensive wide receiver. He's just like a fan in that he wants his team to make a big splash in free agency.
PK: Define "kill the Patriots.'' I said it's time to use some of the draft currency they've built over the years to fill a position of major need. I've done some killing in my time, but I wouldn't call this much of a kill.
He listed this under "3 Things Moves That Should Have Been Made" (or something like that) which means Peter thought it was important enough to mention AND spend an entire paragraph or two discussing. This may not be "killing" the Patriots, but he thought enough of the move to mention it and spend time talking about it.
Yes, I did say the wide receivers in 2009 free-agency were a huge waste of money. But think of the appeal for Boldin in this way: The Patriots traded a fourth-round pick to Oakland for Randy Moss, and that has worked out about as well as any trade of the Bill Belichick/Scott Pioli regime. The Boldin injuries do bother me, which is why I think you need to be smart and not overpay in either compensation or salary. But he is 29, and has caught an average of 86 balls over the past five seasons, and Tom Brady is looking at a very thin group of tight ends and receivers entering training camp.
This Peter's argument:
"So yes, I went out of my way to show how the best wide receivers on the market in 2009 were mostly busts and not worth the money they were paid or the draft picks given up for them...but the Patriots made a good trade three years ago that worked out. That means they are exempt from this "free agent wide receivers are overrated" rule. They are smarter than other teams and can make these moves work out for them. They have a need at wide receiver and that whole thing I said about free agent receivers not working out...it doesn't apply to the Patriots."
If you could trade the equivalent of a third-round pick (say, a low second-rounder, while getting a fourth-or fifth-round pick in return), and if you could pay Boldin over the next four years less than the Titans just paid for Nate Washington, do you think it'd be smart? I do.
Yes, I do think that would be smart. THAT'S NOT THE POINT. The point is that Peter went out of his way to show how overrated the 2009 wide receivers were in free agency and then suggested the Patriots go out and get a wide receiver in free agency/through a trade. Regardless of how he explains what he was trying to say, it is still a contradiction on his part...or he does really think the Patriots are too smart to sign a free agent wide receiver that fails?
Murray Galbraith of Shawnigan Lake, British Columbia: "Can lightning strike twice? Arizona took a chance on Kurt Warner and I think taking a chance on Jake Delhomme would be a good fit. Last year was a disaster for Jake. He put up some pretty horrible numbers. That being said, he's also had some pretty good years. Nothing motivates a player like trying to redeem himself.''
Kurt Warner=potential Hall of Fame player
Jake Delhomme=not a potential Hall of Fame player
Even Jake Delhomme wouldn't agree in any way with this comparison of the chance the Cardinals took on Warner and whether it would be like the chance they could take on Jake Delhomme.
PK: The one difference between Warner and Delhomme is that Warner never showed the alarming signs of Steve Blass-type inaccuracy that Delhomme just did. But I do agree he's worth the risk, because the upside of a revival could be good, and I'm sure the guaranteed money a team will have to pay him will be small.
I think Delhomme will actually do fine at his next stop and I even think he may able to start with success somewhere. Let's be clear though, he has never been a great quarterback, and he has always made bad throws...so I just want everyone to know that. He's isn't going to stop. If he could play every down like it was the two-minute drill he would be a Pro Bowl quarterback.
From Liam Carney of Dublin, Ireland: "With regards to the proposed lockout for 2010, can all 32 team owners, players union and the NFL agree to some sort of sponsorship for team jerseys? All 32 teams have a jersey sponsor (in profit sharing format, of course, due to advantages in certain markets). The NFL would control the pool of money received and bridge the rumored 18 percent gap between owners requests and players demands. Any residual balances leftover could be used to promote the game in various locations or to offset the silly costs of preseason games.''
It sounds like someone is a soccer fan. Let's just say Peter didn't like this idea and spoke fairly condescending to good old Liam from Dublin.
PK: I doubt uniform sponsors could amount to $1 billion per year, which is the gap between the two sides, roughly, now. But I'll pass it along the next time I talk to one of the poohbahs involved in the talks. Thanks. Love your country, by the way.
From Philip of Chicago: "Half of the quarterbacks in the last two Super Bowls were free-agent signings. New Orleans is not anywhere close to a title without Drew Brees. Arizona would have been nowhere close without Kurt Warner. Free agency can make a huge impact in who wins titles and is not 'vastly overrated.' ''
PK: For every Brees, there are 10 Javon Walkers. For every Warner (who could have been had three times in free agency in the last decade by any team in the league), there's a bunch of Adalius Thomases.
What Peter misses is that free agency misses are basically a player evaluation problem. Free agency is not overrated, it's just players change a lot when they change teams, they change roles on a different team, they get more money, they have different supporting casts around them, and it is not always easy to see how the player will react to all these changes. There are just so many variables that go into evaluating whether a player is a valuable free agent, but it is a player evaluation failure, not a failure by free agency overall that is the problem.
Free agency is very valuable as long as a team can properly evaluate whether a player will prosper in their offensive/defensive system and aren't sucked into overspending on players. Prices tend to go up when there is competition for a player in professional sports and finally the dumb teams spend over market value for a player, usually in the first couple of days of free agency. Smart teams are smart in free agency and dumb teams are dumb in free agency. Free agency is not overrated when teams make good choices with where to allocate their money.
-I feel the need to go ahead and give my opinion on some of the free agent moves this offseason. I will start first with the free agent signings.
Chiefs sign RB Thomas Jones: 2 years, $5 million
I just want to know if there was a gun to the head of someone involved with this deal. There had to be. Is the market that bad for Thomas Jones? I would think a team like the Chargers or Browns (maybe) wouldn't mind having Jones play for them. I know both teams have been burnt recently with old running backs, but Jones has at least a season or two left in him. This was a great deal in my opinion for the Chiefs.
Titans sign LB Will Witherspoon: 3 years, $11 million; $5 million guaranteed
This is another great deal. Witherspoon isn't the greatest linebacker in the NFL, but he is good enough to earn this money and he can play a couple linebacker spots.
Bears sign RB Chester Taylor: 4 years, $12.5 million; $7 million guaranteed
I know everyone is high on this signing because Taylor hasn't had much wear on him and he is a fairly productive running back when has gotten a chance to play. I am not down on the signing, I think $7 million guaranteed is a bit much for him. I know he is a "fresh" 31 years old, but he is still 31 years old. Have the Bears given up on Forte after one down year? I don't hate this signing, but I don't think Taylor is as "fresh" as everyone wants him to be. Others see a back who doesn't have a lot of mileage and I see a 31 year old running back who has had over 160 carries only once in his career. I put this move in the "bad move" column.
Dolphins sign ILB Karlos Dansby: 5 years, $43 million; $22 million guaranteed
I don't dislike this signing because Dansby is a quality linebacker and he is in the prime of his career. $22 million guaranteed feels like a lot of money for him and normally I would hate this move. I think Dansby is going to flourish in Miami, because he is actually a pretty good at rushing the passer and will fit in the 3-4 defense they run very well I believe. It's a lot of money, but a huge upgrade.
Jaguars sign DE Aaron Kampman: 4 years, $26 million; $11 million guaranteed
Why? Why give a 30 year old defensive end coming off major knee surgery in NOVEMBER a 4 year deal with $11 million guaranteed? I don't get this at all. He may be an upgrade, but anytime a team gives a guy $11 million guaranteed he better be an upgrade.
Bears sign DE Julius Peppers: 6 years, $91.5 million; $42 million guaranteed
The Bears overpaid for Peppers in my mind. I still am still pretty neutral on this move because of the circumstances surrounding the move. It's a lot of money, but Lovie Smith and the Bears needed to do something to upgrade the pass rush. Peppers is a productive player, even if he takes plays/games off. I am actually going to be interested to see how this plays out. I don't think the money will motivate him, because I don't think anything can really motivate him. He's a great player and contrary to what others and I may say, he is a top-tier defensive end. He is also frustrating and that is a lot of money to pay one player on an aging defense.
Falcons sign CB Dunta Robinson: 6 years, $57 million; $25.5 million guaranteed
Oh, how I am torn about this signing. I love how aggressive the Falcons were to upgrade their defense. Robinson has injury problems, but he is a real #1 cornerback. This just seemed a bit odd for the Falcons to sign an expensive free agent cornerback when they have appeared to be rebuilding their defense through the draft. It just seemed odd to me. The Falcons may still get another cornerback in the draft, but they just gave a ton of money to a cornerback with injury problems. Robinson also clearly wanted money in free agency since he wrote "Pay me Rick" on his shoes to get the Texans to give him a big contract...which didn't end up happening. Hopefully with his injury history he won't now be satisfied with his contract size now as well and start being lazy. I like the signing, but I am not overly enthusiastic quite yet.
Giants sign FS Antrel Rolle: 5 years, $37 million; $15 million guaranteed
That's a lot of money for Rolle. The Giants wanted to make sure they had the position covered and it appears they now do. He was the best safety available in free agency so the Giants did the best they could. I think the Giants may end up regretting this signing personally because Rolle isn't a great safety and that's a lot of money to give a guy who isn't great. I just believe the Giants could have done better.
Bengals sign WR Antonio Bryant: 4 years, $28 million
I actually don't like this signing that much. I think the Bengals were desperate to get another wide receiver, and for good reason, but I think overall Antonio Bryant is a turd when he doesn't have a contract to play for. I can't wait to see how he and Chad Johnson get along on the same team. Bryant is just a terrible locker room guy. Well else would a WR-needy team like the Bucs not make a big attempt to sign him?
Eagles sign CB/FS Marlin Jackson: 2 years (reportedly) $6 million
If he stays healthy this is a great deal. Unfortunately I don't think Jackson has ever been completely healthy over the past couple years and he has missed a bunch of games. If the Eagles think Jackson is the long term solution, that is fine, they just need a backup for when/if Jackson gets hurt again. I like this signing if Jackson stays healthy, otherwise, it's not really a solution in my mind.
Lions sign WR Nate Burleson: 5 years, $25 million; $11 million guaranteed
I hate this signing, but I love this signing. As I have said on multiple occasions, overpaying is the only way the Lions could get free agents. Burleson may pack it in this year, but look at it this way, if he doesn't then he is a legitimate #2 receiver. Do I believe he is going to be lazy now that he had a contract push and got paid? Yes. Do I think the Lions had too many other options to get a decent receiver in free agency, which needed to happen? No.
Lions sign DE Kyle Vanden Bosch: 4 years, $26 million; $10 million guaranteed
I like the signing and I do think the Lions overpaid. Vanden Bosch is not worth this much money, but the Lions are trying to rebuild their offensive line and again, under my "Lions corollary" they had to overpay. This was a huge overpay and he better produce a little bit of something for the money he was given. I feel like the Lions know what they are doing. I hope I am not wrong.
Now for the trades:
Lions acquire CB Chris Houston from Falcons for 2010 6th-rounder and exchange of 2010 5th-rounders
Brilliant trade by the Lions. They pretty much gave up a 6th round pick for Chris Houston, who is still 25 years old and was a 2nd round pick. I like this deal for the Lions and I also like the Falcons got something of value for a guy they didn't value.
Buccaneers acquire WR Reggie Brown from Eagles for 2011 6th-rounder
Eh...sure, why not. He has more value to the Bucs than the Eagles anyway. What is crazy to me is that Reggie Brown is worth a 6th round pick.
Browns acquire QB Seneca Wallace from Seahawks for conditional 2011 pick
It depends on what the pick is. If it is a better pick than a 5th or 6th round pick I am not going to like this pick for the Browns. We all know Mike Holmgren loves himself some Seneca Wallace.
Cardinals acquire FS Kerry Rhodes from Jets for 2010 4th-rounder and 2011 7th-rounder
I personally love Kerry Rhodes and I love this trade for the Jets. They had two 4th round picks and gave up one of those for Rhodes and the 7th round pick is just a throw in it seems. A borderline Pro Bowl safety for a 4th round pick and a 7th round pick? Yes, please. I know he struggled a bit last year, but he didn't struggle the couple of years before that. I absolutely love this trade, but I do like Kerry Rhodes a lot so I may be biased.
Ravens acquire WR Anquan Boldin and 2010 5th-rounder from Cardinals for 2010 3rd-, 4th-rounders
Is this really all the Cardinals could get for Boldin? This is a terrible trade for them. They have a 3rd and 4th round pick to show for Anquan Boldin AND they gave up a 5th round pick. Hell, Reggie Brown netted a 6th round pick. Reggie Brown got a 6th round pick! This is all they could get for Boldin? I am ashamed for Arizona. This was terrible. I feel like they almost gave Boldin away.
Lions acquire DT Corey Williams and 2010 7th-rounder from Browns for 2010 5th-rounder
I can't believe Corey Williams is only worth a 5th round pick and the Lions got a 7th round pick in the trade. This may mean Suh or McCoy isn't the choice in the 1st round for the Lions. Eric Berry is the guy now? Possibly an offensive lineman?
Jets acquire CB Antonio Cromartie from Chargers for conditional 2011 third-round pick
I just spent a part of this post raking this trade on the part of the Jets. The Chargers considered this trade to be addition by subtraction and I would think the (or lack thereof) tackling they saw against their own team in the playoffs would have made the Jets not look at Cromartie. I have heard this is a low risk pick, because it is a 3rd round pick. Well, a 3rd round pick is a fairly valuable pick, after all that is where the Jets found Shonn Greene last year and they found Lowery in the 4th round two years ago. I understand the risk the Jets took to get Cromartie and it very well may pay off.
He hasn't struck me as the "on an island" type cornerback in the past, but Rex Ryan has shown he knows what he is doing. I won't completely dog out this pick because he is a quality cornerback, but I also don't think it is a "no risk" trade like it has been described. Do I like this trade? Not really. I do understand it, but I also can't help but think maybe there wasn't a better option available. If it works, the Jets are going to look smart, there is no doubt about that.
Perhaps Roethlisberger should have gotten drunk and then asked the girl to cross over the street in non-crosswalk area and then run her over with his car. The penalty probably would have ended up being less severe than if he is actually convicted of sexual assault.
Nobody cares about my opinion, but I think I can forget about it when he is accused of sexual assault one time by a crazy person (which the previous accuser seemed to be), but to be accused of sexual assault twice is a bit interesting. I am not saying he is guilty, but how does he end up in these situations? I have always heard Roethlisberger is a semi-asshole and if the Steelers weren't a good team his teammates would probably hate him more than they do. I know Roethlisberger's confidence struck some Steelers players a bit odd when he was just starting out in the NFL. Maybe he is an asshole in his social life as well.
Now for your e-mail:
This is always my favorite part.
From Bob Ruby of Virginia Beach, Va.: "What happens to the 2011 draft picks that were traded (i.e. Jets' 2011 pick for Cromartie) should the league strike? Do they get moved to 2012, or do the teams get conditional picks in the 2012 draft?''
I wondered this as well. See, even though he is pretty irritating and sometimes useless, Peter King does serve a purpose.
Regardless of the status of negotiations between players and owners next spring, the 2011 draft will be held as scheduled in April. It's the last event of significance on the NFL calendar if the owners lock the players out.
Great, nothing pumps me up more than thinking about an NFL Draft for a season that may or may not actually happen. I hate lockouts.
From Luke Rippee of Gardnerville, Nev.: "Peter, what about Jake Delhomme to the Buffalo Bills? I've heard the Bills would rather take a veteran quarterback than a rookie with the 9th pick in the draft.
I think the Bills would rather take a good offensive lineman. Assuming they value the life of the veteran or rookie quarterback they are looking to sign of course. I do like how this question was phrased though. It sounds like Luke is saying the Bills want to DRAFT a veteran quarterback with the 9th pick as opposed to a rookie quarterback. If this were true, let me say, Jake Delhomme is NOT worth the #9 pick in the draft. It would also not surprise me the Bills front office thinks they can draft current players.
With Delhomme, the Bills would be able to pick an offensive lineman at number nine in the first round and maybe grab a guy like Dan LeFevour in the third or fourth round to groom for the future. Is this a possibility?''
That first part sounds like a plan, but I don't know if LeFevour will last until the 3rd or 4th round. He very well may, but I don't know if I want Jake Delhomme tutoring anyone either. He's always seemed like a "by the seat of his pants" type quarterback and he actually regressed when the Panthers tried to teach him fundamentals. Jake always had a good offensive line in Carolina, I don't know if I want to see him behind a bad offensive line.
I also love it when people want to "groom" a quarterback. It just sounds so simple. You draft a quarterback, let him sit the bench for a season or two and then he is ready to start for your team. It just seems so damn simple, I wish it were more realistic sometimes. People wanting to "groom" a quarterback always forgets to two simple problems:
(1) Some quarterbacks learn better by playing in actual games and learning on the job.
(2) You can't teach a quarterback to actually be a good quarterback. So having Jake Delhomme tutor a quarterback and letting the coaching staff groom this quarterback works until you insert that guy in the lineup and realize he isn't very good. What if he isn't "groomed" in time to start? Do you just sign another veteran and wait another year or draft a young guy? I have so many questions about the "grooming" theory I sometimes hear. I am not saying it doesn't work, I just think many fans think a team can draft a late-round quarterback and start "grooming" him.
PK: It certainly should be. I'd rather have a Trent Edwards-Jake Delhomme combo at quarterback, for now,
I think this sentence has never been uttered in the history of mankind...it may never be uttered again.
From Tim of Lexington, Ky.: "You contradict yourself in your own column! In the first part you say spending the big money on WR is not worth it (and Anquan Boldin got big money even though he was traded) and then kill the Patriots for not picking one up?
This isn't the only time Peter has contradicted himself. For example, his entire MMQB was an ode to why free agency is overrated, but then he goes and wants his (presumed) favorite team to sign a big name and expensive wide receiver. He's just like a fan in that he wants his team to make a big splash in free agency.
PK: Define "kill the Patriots.'' I said it's time to use some of the draft currency they've built over the years to fill a position of major need. I've done some killing in my time, but I wouldn't call this much of a kill.
He listed this under "3 Things Moves That Should Have Been Made" (or something like that) which means Peter thought it was important enough to mention AND spend an entire paragraph or two discussing. This may not be "killing" the Patriots, but he thought enough of the move to mention it and spend time talking about it.
Yes, I did say the wide receivers in 2009 free-agency were a huge waste of money. But think of the appeal for Boldin in this way: The Patriots traded a fourth-round pick to Oakland for Randy Moss, and that has worked out about as well as any trade of the Bill Belichick/Scott Pioli regime. The Boldin injuries do bother me, which is why I think you need to be smart and not overpay in either compensation or salary. But he is 29, and has caught an average of 86 balls over the past five seasons, and Tom Brady is looking at a very thin group of tight ends and receivers entering training camp.
This Peter's argument:
"So yes, I went out of my way to show how the best wide receivers on the market in 2009 were mostly busts and not worth the money they were paid or the draft picks given up for them...but the Patriots made a good trade three years ago that worked out. That means they are exempt from this "free agent wide receivers are overrated" rule. They are smarter than other teams and can make these moves work out for them. They have a need at wide receiver and that whole thing I said about free agent receivers not working out...it doesn't apply to the Patriots."
If you could trade the equivalent of a third-round pick (say, a low second-rounder, while getting a fourth-or fifth-round pick in return), and if you could pay Boldin over the next four years less than the Titans just paid for Nate Washington, do you think it'd be smart? I do.
Yes, I do think that would be smart. THAT'S NOT THE POINT. The point is that Peter went out of his way to show how overrated the 2009 wide receivers were in free agency and then suggested the Patriots go out and get a wide receiver in free agency/through a trade. Regardless of how he explains what he was trying to say, it is still a contradiction on his part...or he does really think the Patriots are too smart to sign a free agent wide receiver that fails?
Murray Galbraith of Shawnigan Lake, British Columbia: "Can lightning strike twice? Arizona took a chance on Kurt Warner and I think taking a chance on Jake Delhomme would be a good fit. Last year was a disaster for Jake. He put up some pretty horrible numbers. That being said, he's also had some pretty good years. Nothing motivates a player like trying to redeem himself.''
Kurt Warner=potential Hall of Fame player
Jake Delhomme=not a potential Hall of Fame player
Even Jake Delhomme wouldn't agree in any way with this comparison of the chance the Cardinals took on Warner and whether it would be like the chance they could take on Jake Delhomme.
PK: The one difference between Warner and Delhomme is that Warner never showed the alarming signs of Steve Blass-type inaccuracy that Delhomme just did. But I do agree he's worth the risk, because the upside of a revival could be good, and I'm sure the guaranteed money a team will have to pay him will be small.
I think Delhomme will actually do fine at his next stop and I even think he may able to start with success somewhere. Let's be clear though, he has never been a great quarterback, and he has always made bad throws...so I just want everyone to know that. He's isn't going to stop. If he could play every down like it was the two-minute drill he would be a Pro Bowl quarterback.
From Liam Carney of Dublin, Ireland: "With regards to the proposed lockout for 2010, can all 32 team owners, players union and the NFL agree to some sort of sponsorship for team jerseys? All 32 teams have a jersey sponsor (in profit sharing format, of course, due to advantages in certain markets). The NFL would control the pool of money received and bridge the rumored 18 percent gap between owners requests and players demands. Any residual balances leftover could be used to promote the game in various locations or to offset the silly costs of preseason games.''
It sounds like someone is a soccer fan. Let's just say Peter didn't like this idea and spoke fairly condescending to good old Liam from Dublin.
PK: I doubt uniform sponsors could amount to $1 billion per year, which is the gap between the two sides, roughly, now. But I'll pass it along the next time I talk to one of the poohbahs involved in the talks. Thanks. Love your country, by the way.
From Philip of Chicago: "Half of the quarterbacks in the last two Super Bowls were free-agent signings. New Orleans is not anywhere close to a title without Drew Brees. Arizona would have been nowhere close without Kurt Warner. Free agency can make a huge impact in who wins titles and is not 'vastly overrated.' ''
PK: For every Brees, there are 10 Javon Walkers. For every Warner (who could have been had three times in free agency in the last decade by any team in the league), there's a bunch of Adalius Thomases.
What Peter misses is that free agency misses are basically a player evaluation problem. Free agency is not overrated, it's just players change a lot when they change teams, they change roles on a different team, they get more money, they have different supporting casts around them, and it is not always easy to see how the player will react to all these changes. There are just so many variables that go into evaluating whether a player is a valuable free agent, but it is a player evaluation failure, not a failure by free agency overall that is the problem.
Free agency is very valuable as long as a team can properly evaluate whether a player will prosper in their offensive/defensive system and aren't sucked into overspending on players. Prices tend to go up when there is competition for a player in professional sports and finally the dumb teams spend over market value for a player, usually in the first couple of days of free agency. Smart teams are smart in free agency and dumb teams are dumb in free agency. Free agency is not overrated when teams make good choices with where to allocate their money.
-I feel the need to go ahead and give my opinion on some of the free agent moves this offseason. I will start first with the free agent signings.
Chiefs sign RB Thomas Jones: 2 years, $5 million
I just want to know if there was a gun to the head of someone involved with this deal. There had to be. Is the market that bad for Thomas Jones? I would think a team like the Chargers or Browns (maybe) wouldn't mind having Jones play for them. I know both teams have been burnt recently with old running backs, but Jones has at least a season or two left in him. This was a great deal in my opinion for the Chiefs.
Titans sign LB Will Witherspoon: 3 years, $11 million; $5 million guaranteed
This is another great deal. Witherspoon isn't the greatest linebacker in the NFL, but he is good enough to earn this money and he can play a couple linebacker spots.
Bears sign RB Chester Taylor: 4 years, $12.5 million; $7 million guaranteed
I know everyone is high on this signing because Taylor hasn't had much wear on him and he is a fairly productive running back when has gotten a chance to play. I am not down on the signing, I think $7 million guaranteed is a bit much for him. I know he is a "fresh" 31 years old, but he is still 31 years old. Have the Bears given up on Forte after one down year? I don't hate this signing, but I don't think Taylor is as "fresh" as everyone wants him to be. Others see a back who doesn't have a lot of mileage and I see a 31 year old running back who has had over 160 carries only once in his career. I put this move in the "bad move" column.
Dolphins sign ILB Karlos Dansby: 5 years, $43 million; $22 million guaranteed
I don't dislike this signing because Dansby is a quality linebacker and he is in the prime of his career. $22 million guaranteed feels like a lot of money for him and normally I would hate this move. I think Dansby is going to flourish in Miami, because he is actually a pretty good at rushing the passer and will fit in the 3-4 defense they run very well I believe. It's a lot of money, but a huge upgrade.
Jaguars sign DE Aaron Kampman: 4 years, $26 million; $11 million guaranteed
Why? Why give a 30 year old defensive end coming off major knee surgery in NOVEMBER a 4 year deal with $11 million guaranteed? I don't get this at all. He may be an upgrade, but anytime a team gives a guy $11 million guaranteed he better be an upgrade.
Bears sign DE Julius Peppers: 6 years, $91.5 million; $42 million guaranteed
The Bears overpaid for Peppers in my mind. I still am still pretty neutral on this move because of the circumstances surrounding the move. It's a lot of money, but Lovie Smith and the Bears needed to do something to upgrade the pass rush. Peppers is a productive player, even if he takes plays/games off. I am actually going to be interested to see how this plays out. I don't think the money will motivate him, because I don't think anything can really motivate him. He's a great player and contrary to what others and I may say, he is a top-tier defensive end. He is also frustrating and that is a lot of money to pay one player on an aging defense.
Falcons sign CB Dunta Robinson: 6 years, $57 million; $25.5 million guaranteed
Oh, how I am torn about this signing. I love how aggressive the Falcons were to upgrade their defense. Robinson has injury problems, but he is a real #1 cornerback. This just seemed a bit odd for the Falcons to sign an expensive free agent cornerback when they have appeared to be rebuilding their defense through the draft. It just seemed odd to me. The Falcons may still get another cornerback in the draft, but they just gave a ton of money to a cornerback with injury problems. Robinson also clearly wanted money in free agency since he wrote "Pay me Rick" on his shoes to get the Texans to give him a big contract...which didn't end up happening. Hopefully with his injury history he won't now be satisfied with his contract size now as well and start being lazy. I like the signing, but I am not overly enthusiastic quite yet.
Giants sign FS Antrel Rolle: 5 years, $37 million; $15 million guaranteed
That's a lot of money for Rolle. The Giants wanted to make sure they had the position covered and it appears they now do. He was the best safety available in free agency so the Giants did the best they could. I think the Giants may end up regretting this signing personally because Rolle isn't a great safety and that's a lot of money to give a guy who isn't great. I just believe the Giants could have done better.
Bengals sign WR Antonio Bryant: 4 years, $28 million
I actually don't like this signing that much. I think the Bengals were desperate to get another wide receiver, and for good reason, but I think overall Antonio Bryant is a turd when he doesn't have a contract to play for. I can't wait to see how he and Chad Johnson get along on the same team. Bryant is just a terrible locker room guy. Well else would a WR-needy team like the Bucs not make a big attempt to sign him?
Eagles sign CB/FS Marlin Jackson: 2 years (reportedly) $6 million
If he stays healthy this is a great deal. Unfortunately I don't think Jackson has ever been completely healthy over the past couple years and he has missed a bunch of games. If the Eagles think Jackson is the long term solution, that is fine, they just need a backup for when/if Jackson gets hurt again. I like this signing if Jackson stays healthy, otherwise, it's not really a solution in my mind.
Lions sign WR Nate Burleson: 5 years, $25 million; $11 million guaranteed
I hate this signing, but I love this signing. As I have said on multiple occasions, overpaying is the only way the Lions could get free agents. Burleson may pack it in this year, but look at it this way, if he doesn't then he is a legitimate #2 receiver. Do I believe he is going to be lazy now that he had a contract push and got paid? Yes. Do I think the Lions had too many other options to get a decent receiver in free agency, which needed to happen? No.
Lions sign DE Kyle Vanden Bosch: 4 years, $26 million; $10 million guaranteed
I like the signing and I do think the Lions overpaid. Vanden Bosch is not worth this much money, but the Lions are trying to rebuild their offensive line and again, under my "Lions corollary" they had to overpay. This was a huge overpay and he better produce a little bit of something for the money he was given. I feel like the Lions know what they are doing. I hope I am not wrong.
Now for the trades:
Lions acquire CB Chris Houston from Falcons for 2010 6th-rounder and exchange of 2010 5th-rounders
Brilliant trade by the Lions. They pretty much gave up a 6th round pick for Chris Houston, who is still 25 years old and was a 2nd round pick. I like this deal for the Lions and I also like the Falcons got something of value for a guy they didn't value.
Buccaneers acquire WR Reggie Brown from Eagles for 2011 6th-rounder
Eh...sure, why not. He has more value to the Bucs than the Eagles anyway. What is crazy to me is that Reggie Brown is worth a 6th round pick.
Browns acquire QB Seneca Wallace from Seahawks for conditional 2011 pick
It depends on what the pick is. If it is a better pick than a 5th or 6th round pick I am not going to like this pick for the Browns. We all know Mike Holmgren loves himself some Seneca Wallace.
Cardinals acquire FS Kerry Rhodes from Jets for 2010 4th-rounder and 2011 7th-rounder
I personally love Kerry Rhodes and I love this trade for the Jets. They had two 4th round picks and gave up one of those for Rhodes and the 7th round pick is just a throw in it seems. A borderline Pro Bowl safety for a 4th round pick and a 7th round pick? Yes, please. I know he struggled a bit last year, but he didn't struggle the couple of years before that. I absolutely love this trade, but I do like Kerry Rhodes a lot so I may be biased.
Ravens acquire WR Anquan Boldin and 2010 5th-rounder from Cardinals for 2010 3rd-, 4th-rounders
Is this really all the Cardinals could get for Boldin? This is a terrible trade for them. They have a 3rd and 4th round pick to show for Anquan Boldin AND they gave up a 5th round pick. Hell, Reggie Brown netted a 6th round pick. Reggie Brown got a 6th round pick! This is all they could get for Boldin? I am ashamed for Arizona. This was terrible. I feel like they almost gave Boldin away.
Lions acquire DT Corey Williams and 2010 7th-rounder from Browns for 2010 5th-rounder
I can't believe Corey Williams is only worth a 5th round pick and the Lions got a 7th round pick in the trade. This may mean Suh or McCoy isn't the choice in the 1st round for the Lions. Eric Berry is the guy now? Possibly an offensive lineman?
Jets acquire CB Antonio Cromartie from Chargers for conditional 2011 third-round pick
I just spent a part of this post raking this trade on the part of the Jets. The Chargers considered this trade to be addition by subtraction and I would think the (or lack thereof) tackling they saw against their own team in the playoffs would have made the Jets not look at Cromartie. I have heard this is a low risk pick, because it is a 3rd round pick. Well, a 3rd round pick is a fairly valuable pick, after all that is where the Jets found Shonn Greene last year and they found Lowery in the 4th round two years ago. I understand the risk the Jets took to get Cromartie and it very well may pay off.
He hasn't struck me as the "on an island" type cornerback in the past, but Rex Ryan has shown he knows what he is doing. I won't completely dog out this pick because he is a quality cornerback, but I also don't think it is a "no risk" trade like it has been described. Do I like this trade? Not really. I do understand it, but I also can't help but think maybe there wasn't a better option available. If it works, the Jets are going to look smart, there is no doubt about that.
That #2 overall pick holds a lot of value in this draft because of McCoy and Suh. I'm guessing the trade for Williams gives them the flexibility to try and get the best offer for it, enabling them to trade down and grab an offensive lineman or rush end. If they don't like any of their offers they can still just draft Suh or McCoy, which would make more sense considering their front seven was their biggest weakness last year (and that's saying something!)
ReplyDeleteI think the other risk involved with Cromartie is that he will see a lot of passes going his way if he's on the other side of the field from Darrelle Revis. What if he isn't up to the task?
and what I'm wondering is all the chatter for Delhomme while Rex "The Sex Cannon" Grossman wastes away on the Houston bench. c'mon, is Delhomme really that much better than Grossman?
The draft is overrated. For every Orlando Pace, there's ten Tony Mandariches. For every Derrick Thomas, there's ten Vernon Gholstons. For every Peyton Manning there's ten Ryan Leafs (Leaves?). We can play this game all day, Peter.
Even if the Jets didn't trade for Cromartie, they didn't have to get a CB.
ReplyDeleteLowery wasn't terrible last year and they had the number 1 defense last year. Look at the Giants secondary the year they won the super bowl: Corey Webster and Aaron Ross. They won because they had LBs who could cover and an awesome D-Line. You don't need two top end DBs to win a SB, or at least not when you have other needs. However a third rounder made the deal okay in my mind. Cromartie could get back into his Pro Bowl form and then that defense could easily lead the Jets deep in the playoffs in Sanchez channels his inner Trent Dilfer.
Then again, they could have used Boldin more than they used Cromartie.
On the topic of QB grooming, there are a couple things that are considered:
1. Mental attributes
2. Physical attributes
3. Learning style
Mentally, the NFL is a completely different animal than NCAA, so having your QB spend a year getting used to watching the game from the sidelines will help them "tune" into how fast the game really is. Just like hitters watch pitches from the on deck circle, there are some things that you can learn from the sidelines regardless of your learning style.
You also need a QB who is used to playing with that group of guys. After spending 4 years with roughly the same core of guys, going into the NFL with a new (bigger) playbook, new teammates (and their habits) and most importantly getting to know what people are good at. Those are things best learned in practice or watching the game. Most top flight QBs play with really good college players, depth that their NFL team probably won't have.
Physically there are players who just look like they're going to get beat up. McCoy and Bradford come to mind. Spending a year bulking up might not be a terrible idea.
And like you said, learning style has to come into play. If a player learns by doing, then getting them out there is good. However, you have to consider that it might be worth hampering their learning early to ensure that they can progress quicker once they actually start playing. Instead of learning the little things (speed of the game, getting used to teammates and their nuances, etc) during the first few games (while probably running for their lives), they can learn those things from the sidelines and then pick up on bigger things during games.
Last topic: Antrel Rolle. I like the signing from the standpoint that they needed a safety. Kenny Philips has a chronic condition that might derail his career, so having Rolle makes that slightly easier to digest. If Philips does play, then the Giants have two very good safeties.
The money is tough to swallow and IMO I'd rather they signed Dansby and moved Ross to safety (where he should be), then shelled out the largest contract for a safety ever.
I wouldn't be shocked if they did try to get McCoy or Suh. That would be an expensive line, but it would also be a huge advantage for them at that point as well.
ReplyDeleteIvn, that's a good point. Can he handle being picked on like is going to happen to him?
I think Delhomme is better than Grossman, but I am probably biased on that issue. For some reason teams trust Delhomme more because of his resume. He usually had a pretty good offensive line, at least one good receiver and running back though.
Nice way to play that game. You can play that game with pretty much anything.
Rich, I think the Jets could have done better. We'll see. I think they had a pretty good defense and Lowery is only in his 3rd year, so it's possible he could have gotten better.
I think for a quarterback to get groomed, you are right, you have to have a set group of guys and not have the personnel change too much. He has to be used to what he is getting into when he does start.
Learning style is a big deal. I think a late round pick would naturally not be able to start immediately, but you never know. You make some really good points that I don't even need to try and add to.
I like the Rolle signing, I don't like the money as much though. The Giants do have a good history so they should get some benefit of the doubt.
I think you're underrating the Chester Taylor signing. I don't think the Bears have given up on Forte, but it's clear that he had way too many touches as a rookie and wore down in his sophomore campaign. Having a guy like Chester Taylor is a great move: Taylor can run between the tackles and is a good receiver on third down. He can be mixed in about 30-50% of the time, maximizing both his touches and those of Forte. He's also a much more polished blocker and blitz pickup guy than Forte, which comes in handy if the Bears continue to try to be the Jay Cutler show.
ReplyDeleteAs for the money, it's probably market value for a guy like him, but it looks bad compared to the virtual steal that the Thomas Jones contract is.
Maybe it is market value for Taylor, all I have to compare it to is the Jones signing, like you said. It's not a bad signing, they obviously had to address the position after Forte's year last year. I guess they decided to bring in an experienced guy rather than a younger guy in the later rounds of the draft or anything like that.
ReplyDeleteMaybe he will shine in the Martz system, because he can catch the ball and he is a decent runner. I just thought it was a lot of money for a 31 year old. It's not a terrible signing and if Martz figures out how to use him it may end up being worth it. I just thought it was a lot of money for a guy who is a back up.
I liked the Robinson signing for the Falcons. What I would have like better was to give Houston a chance to play alongside him for a year. The past couple of years, Houston's been asked to be a #1 CB, which he obviously isn't. That doesn't mean he couldn't be a decent #2 CB.
ReplyDeleteAnd I think the Lions will still pick Suh/McCoy. That should upgrade their D-line from a weakness to a strength, which is always a good move for a rebuilding team. A strong D-line makes your back 7 that much better.
I don't hate the signing, but he does have an injury history. I think the Falcons gave up WAY too easily on Chris Houston. That's a steal in my mind for the Lions.
ReplyDeleteThe Lions would have a very expensive front 7 but it would also be a real strength for that team.