Steve Phillips Is a Crazy Person

Steve Phillips used to be the General Manager for a Major League Baseball team. I am sure everyone pretty much knew that, but I wanted to re-state that a team (the Mets) paid him to run their team, with the assumption he would lead the team to success. It didn't completely happen this way. This is a guy who didn't make altogether terrible moves with the Mets, but he traded for and signed veterans every chance he got. Along those lines, he stated two days ago he would trade Stephen Strasburg for Roy Oswalt. Steve Phillips is a crazy person.

Let's first look at Phillips' exact words and then go from there in discussing this.

"Here's the thing," Phillips told Mike Francesa on New York's WFAN Monday afternoon. "If I'm the Astros, I'm saying Washington Nationals, sure, [Roy] Oswalt, I think he'd fit great for you. I'll take Strasburg, and then I'll take...."

Here's the underrated part of this statement for me. It isn't just a straight up Oswalt for Strasburg trade, but Steve Phillips was going to try and ask for MORE players from the Nationals in return for Oswalt. I don't tend to overvalue prospects much, Strasburg is an exception. Strasburg is not only a marketing dream for the Nationals, but he is also a pitcher that AT WORST seems to be a quality #2 starter in the future. Oswalt is a #1 starter and a quality one at that. So it is not like the Nationals would be getting a crappy pitcher in return, but does Steve Phillips really think the Nationals would throw another player in the trade? It would have to be a AAAA guy who is in his upper-20's or a prospect that doesn't look like he has a bright future for me to think this is reasonable. Of course why would the Astros demand another player who doesn't look like he is worth having?

Of course there is a money aspect to this discussion as well. Oswalt is also 32 years old and costs $15 million this season, $18 million next season and has a club option for 2012 for $16 million with a $2 million buyout. I love Roy Oswalt as a pitcher and I can only think of two reasons the Nationals would trade Strasburg for Oswalt straight up.

1. The Nationals know something about Strasburg's future no other team knows (injury or he isn't that good of a pitcher). Neither of these situations seem to be the case here.

2. The Nationals want to win over the next two years and don't care what they have to do in order to make this happen. Bottom line, the Nationals aren't winning anything this year, so unless Mike Rizzo is delusional, this isn't the case either.

Where Steve Phillips has failed is he doesn't understand the Nationals marketing and pitching needs at this current point in time. Strasberg is a marketing dream for a team that can't get fan interest or ticket sales for their team. Strasberg is the future for the Nationals. To trade him is to essentially trade the future of the Nationals...until they draft Bryce Harper.

Phillips also doesn't understand that it doesn't even really make financial sense to trade Strasburg for Oswalt. Strasburg is a cheaper pitcher than Oswalt right now and is seen as the pitching savior of the franchise. Regardless of whether the actual trade makes sense in terms of value gained on each side, it doesn't make sense from a marketing, financial, and team competitiveness point of view. The Nationals aren't winning the World Series this year so they don't have a need to trade short term value for a long term value in Strasburg.

But yes, it would appear that Strasburg alone wouldn't be enough.

This is why Phillips is a crazy person to me. He wants the Nationals to give up more players than just Strasburg. Beyond what the point of trading Strasburg for Oswalt would be, how the hell does he really think the Astros could talk the Nationals out of giving up more players for Oswalt? Maybe Strasburg will never been as good as Oswalt is or has been, but try telling that to a Nationals fan base that has very little to cheer for.

A team shouldn't always cater to its fan base, but there comes a time when a team has to give a shit about selling tickets to the games.

Francesa immediately realized that this idea was, to use the technical term, dumb.

"Never," he said. "They won't do that. They won't do that."

"No, they won't do that," Phillips agreed, briefly reentering the earth's orbit. "But let me ask you this: Do you think that Strasburg is going to be Roy Oswalt in his career?"

This is another time where Phillips fails to understand what he is actually arguing. This isn't really even about whether Strasburg would be as good as Oswalt, but whether the Nationals think Oswalt will help them more over the next 2-3 years more than having Strasburg for a minimum of 5-6 years will help them and whether money spent on Oswalt wouldn't be better spent in another fashion to help the Nationals compete. Basically the Nationals are going all-in on this current season and next season by trading Oswalt for Strasburg and that's not smart for them to do. They aren't close enough to contending to make this move. The Nationals could use this money they would spend on Oswalt to get 1-2 quality position players this offseason or make another trade while keeping Strasburg.

Another factor in why this wouldn't work is one player is 32 years old and the other player is 21 years old. So essentially the Nationals would be giving up 11 years in the majors with Strasburg (of course there is the money they would have to pay Strasburg in that time as well) for 2-3 years of Oswalt.

"You think he will? I don't know that," Phillips countered. "And even if he is, if I think that I want Roy Oswalt to help me win this year, you know what?

Well you never KNOW how good a pitcher will be, but given Strasburg's numbers in the minors this year it doesn't look like he is going to struggle to adapt to the majors too much. There is easily $18 million in salary difference in what Oswalt would cost to keep over the next two years (I am assuming the Nationals pay $3 million of his salary this year and assuming Strasburg is making $2 million over the next two years, which is fuzzy math, but my point is there will be a massive difference in salaries of the two players) over what Strasburg would cost to keep. This is another strike against this deal.

Is Oswalt worth $18 million more than Strasburg over the next season and a half? There's no way he is. This is the exact reason Steve Phillips got fired from the Mets, he is constantly thinking about NOW and not thinking that the Nationals aren't in a position to compete this year (I don't give a shit what the standings say) so there is no reason to pretend they are in a position to compete.

Besides, if the Nationals can compete (as they have so far) without Strasburg or Oswalt, adding Strasburg to the rotation will only make them a better team. Oswalt isn't good enough to make an average team a Wild Card team. I don't think Oswalt's talent today and in the future is worth more than Strasburg's talent today and in the future when you include salaries and other variables the Nationals need to factor in.

I'm one of the guys, I make that deal, because...."

"One of those guys" being a crazy person. There is no other person or team who would make this deal. I think even if the Yankees needed pitching and they had Strasburg they wouldn't trade him for Oswalt...and the Yankees are supposed to hate their prospects, right?

I mean, this is a team coming off back-to-back 100-loss seasons, with the lowest season-ticket base of its history, now poised to draft the most exciting teenage hitting prospect in years, whose best player hasn't yet entered his prime and whose fan base has been waiting for sustained competitiveness built around the man nicknamed Jeezus. So you'd trade him to help you compete for a wild card this year?

Exactly. Essentially Steve Phillips is advocating trading one of the building blocks of the team for a run at the Wild Card in the National League for the next two years. Because the Nationals won't be going further than the NLDS this year and they can't win the NL East over the Phillies. Making this trade would be one of the worst examples of advocating a short-term benefit and ignoring a long-term benefit in Major League history. What GM trades a potential elite pitcher for a shot an outside the Wild Card? I can't believe how wrong Steve Phillips is about this.

"You can't give up Strasburg, though," Francesa said

"Absolutely," Phillips insisted. "I mean, listen, he was a good college pitcher, he's a good minor league pitcher so far. But if I can get one of the top, what, top 5 starting pitchers in the game today for Strasburg?

The Mets management have to be beaming with pride today that Phillips is talking like this. ESPN is probably jealous they had to fire this genius. I'm not being sarcastic, they probably think this argument would have been great on the Coors Light Home Depot "Six Pack of Questions" for Steve Phillips sponsored by Applebees.

Here's the point that Phillips keeps missing: The Nationals don't have a need for a Top 5 pitcher like Roy Oswalt. Their team is doing well this year, but this success will end. They have lost 100 games the past couple of seasons and seem to be on their way back to the NL East basement. So it does not make sense to trade for a Top 5 pitcher (even though I don't know if Oswalt is a Top 5 pitcher). Even proposing this trade shows absolutely zero foresight.

Strasburg has also been better than "good" in both the minors and college. He's been excellent.

Because I really, truly, I hope that he could be that guy. I have to tell you, I don't know that he could be that guy. And with his delivery, I could see the potential of a Mark Prior sort of breakdown."

Now Steve Phillips thinks he is a pitching coach. He doesn't like Strasburg's delivery! Alert the media, Strasburg is going to have arm problems because Steve Phillips doesn't like his delivery!

This opinion from the guy who traded for Mo Vaughn in 2001 even though Vaughn had missed the entire 2001 campaign with an injury. He thinks Strasburg will have his arm breakdown based on the video he has seen from him, but he also thought Mo Vaughn was in such great shape he could easily recover from his injury and play first base in the National League. Steve Phillips knew this because Mo Vaughn hit the ball well off a fucking tee after his surgery in 2001. I'm not kidding.

Steve Phillips may believe Mike Rizzo is into collecting a fantasy team and not trying to actually improve the Nationals for the future. Come to think of it, that could have been his problem with the Mets as well, Phillips thought he was collecting a fantasy team and not putting together a team of productive baseball players.

Rob Neyer chimes in on this discussion and imagines if it makes sense to trade Oswalt for Strasburg for any team. Let's enter the analysis of crazy person land now.

Not the Nationals, though. Given where they are in the development cycle, it's simply impossible to justify trading six years of Strasburg for 10 months of Roy Oswalt. And that would be true even if Oswalt wasn't slated to earn nearly $30 million through the 2011 season.

I know people say dumb things, but Steve Phillips didn't say it just once and then take it back, he kept saying over and over he would make this trade. Aren't experts not supposed to be idiots?

But what if you're a contender, and the money's not all that important? Who's more likely to get you into the playoffs this season, and help you win the World Series?

Oswalt, clearly.

This is correct, but I don't think even the most eager World Series contender would make this trade. I can see what Rob Neyer is saying, but the fact is to have this trade make sense a team would have to want to win this year and not care about next year or two years after that. It isn't simply a discussion of whether a team could win with Oswalt or Strasburg in the rotation because there is going to be a next year.

If you were really trying to win, you might remove him from the rotation in July or August and deploy him for the rest of the season as your not-so-secret bullpen weapon, like the Rays used David Price in 2008. But if you'd given the Rays a choice between Price and Oswalt that summer, wouldn't they have chosen Oswalt?

The Rays would have taken Oswalt over Price, but I don't know if the Rays would have actually traded Price for Oswalt. Every MLB team would want to trade prospects for proven players, but this trade doesn't exist in a vacuum and that is why I don't think even the most World Series-needy team would make this trade. To have this trade make sense for the team getting Oswalt, the only variable that will have to be paid attention to by a GM is the opportunity to win the World Series, and be willing to do anything to reach this goal.

Obviously, the Rays wouldn't trade Price for Oswalt today ... but it's worth mentioning that Price is now in his third major league season, and he's still not the pitcher we once thought he would become.

What does this tell us? The Rays may have made that trade, but they wouldn't have re-done the trade two years later, even when Oswalt is a better pitcher than David Price now (which I would perhaps start a debate over). It tells me no team is going to be so short-sighted as to make this trade.

Besides, David Price is currently 7-1 with a 2.41 ERA, ERA+ of 176, and a WHIP of 1.14 at the age of 24 years old. What kind of pitcher did Rob Neyer expect Price to be? I think he is pretty damned good right now. I don't know what potential Rob Neyer sees in him that he doesn't currently seem to be reaching.

Take the money out of it, and if I'm trying to win right now, I would rather have Roy Oswalt than Stephen Strasburg in 2010 and '11, because I think Oswalt is going to win more games in these two seasons.

Even if you take the money out of it, you still have to pay attention to two years down the road and whether Oswalt is THE missing piece that will guarantee your team a World Series. This trade only makes sense in a short-sighted vacuum where all other variables outside of "whether the trade will win a team the World Series" are ignored.

If I'm the Nationals, though? Fuhgeddaboutit.

I would say if you are any team in the majors, then it wouldn't happen. Teams that have GM's terrible enough to make this decision in such a vacuum aren't good enough teams to win the World Series with Oswalt anyway.

I am skeptical this crazy idea of Steve Phillips' would work in any situation, even for a World Series contender. Like I said, no team that has a GM stupid enough to trade Strasburg for Oswalt will probably be contending for a World Series title. That's not to say a stupid GM's team won't luck out and be competing at this point in the season of course, but generally dumb GM's have made stupid moves that don't put their team in a position to make the World Series. Obviously there are exceptions.

If a team needed a pitcher that badly, why didn't they go for a pitcher who cost a little bit less to acquire? Sure you wouldn't get a Roy Oswalt in return, but you also wouldn't be trading a guy with as much potential as Stephen Strasburg has.

One thing is for sure, Steve Phillips is a crazy person and it is not shocking he was fired by the Mets. I am not sure a Roy Oswalt for Stephen Strasburg trade would ever go down no matter the circumstances, but if it did then the reasoning would have to exist in a vacuum based on solely on winning the World Series THAT YEAR. I don't know how a team that thinks like this would compete beyond 2011.