Friday, May 14, 2010

Woody Paige Has Lost His Mind

Woody Paige has a crazy idea. I blame his idea on him having "Tebow Fever" personally. It's the only cause for this affliction that Woody currently has and why he thinks a roster of unproven quarterbacks is a good idea. Woody Paige thinks the Denver Broncos should trade Kyle Orton. Apparently he is the only one in the world fine with a depth chart of Brady Quinn, Tim Tebow, and Tom Brandstater. Kyle Orton is by no means a great quarterback, but he needs to stay on the roster because if the Broncos want to compete this year, he is their best chance to do so. Hell, it is a good idea to keep him on the roster even if he isn't the starter.

For the development of Brady Quinn, Tim Tebow and Tom Brandstater, for fairness to Kyle Orton, for the benefit of the other Broncos, for the future of the franchise, for the fans in Bronco Country, for goodness' sake, Orton must be traded.

For the love of God, you are wrong.

I don't like Kyle Orton, but he gives the Broncos the best chance, and perhaps the only chance, to make the playoffs this year. Sure, maybe Quinn or Tebow could start this year and make the playoffs, it is possible, but Orton gives them a better chance.

Orton is not a short-term fix or a long-range fit for the Broncos.

Actually, Orton IS a short-term fix for the Broncos. Trading him would serve no purpose except to get a draft pick back that won't be as good as Orton. The Broncos wouldn't get nearly enough compensation back for losing him and neither Quinn, Tebow, or Brandstater are ready to start for an NFL team. Maybe Quinn could do well, but I think he could use some time to recover from playing for the Browns. Now if the Broncos want to go 4-12 this year and have a good pick in next year's draft then they would trade Orton and give the starting quarterback job to any of the other quarterbacks currently on the roster.

A deal should be sought, in my opinion, before the team's voluntary minicamp May 17-19 — so the Broncos and Orton can move on now.

Also, so one of the three quarterbacks left over will have a fighting chance to actually succeed when the starting position is thrust upon him before he is potentially ready.

Josh McDaniels, it has been asserted, has been joined at one hip with Tebow and, to the other, with Quinn, but, truthfully, his coaching reign in Denver can't be tied to Orton.

This is a true statement. The problem is McDaniels can be joined at each hip by these two young quarterbacks, but only one can be the starter. So personally, if I were to trade a quarterback, I would trade Quinn or Tebow and keep Orton as a veteran backup. Simply because the Broncos don't have a future spot for Orton doesn't mean he can't start this year.

McDaniels is better off putting his trust in, and his teaching toward, Young QBT and QB3 — Quinn, Brandstater & Tebow.

He can still teach these quarterbacks and develop them without them actually playing in NFL games right now. What good is a 5th round draft pick (this is what they would get at best for Orton) going to do when the Broncos have three guys who aren't ready to be the starting quarterback, as the starting quarterback?

If the Broncos had been so enamored with Orton after the last so-so season, they wouldn't have first acquired Quinn and then drafted Tebow.

But he still is their best chance to win THIS SEASON.

History serves. In 1982, serviceable journeyman Steve DeBerg was the Broncos' starter, but John Elway and Gary Kubiak arrived the next year.

I hate to break it to Woody Paige, and it all really boils down to this, but there isn't a John Elway on the Bronco roster right now. This is true no matter how much he doesn't want to believe it. Tebow is the closest and he isn't ready to start this year. I think the "trade Orton" idea in Woody's head is a result of his Tebow Fever. He thinks Tebow can step in and start this year, which I just don't think is true. He may have a bright future in the NFL at quarterback, but I really don't believe he is ready to play this year.

Woody Paige is infatuated with Tim Tebow and I think him wanting to trade Orton is a reaction to how he is so blinded by his love for Tebow, and even his love for Brady Quinn (who I prefer over Tebow to start this year), he can't see this isn't a good idea. He likes Tebow, so he wants him to succeed, and then Quinn will be the previously unsuccessful quarterback that will end up being a great reliable backup to Tebow for the next decade. I think Woody is wrong. I would maybe start Brady Quinn this year if he beats out Kyle Orton for the job in training camp, but I would not trade Orton and rely on Quinn, Tebow and Brandstater to be the Broncos quarterbacks. Mostly I blame it on Woody's blinders to Tebow's current actual ability to be a quarterback in the NFL.

Quinn and Tebow can compete vigorously to become No. 1. McDaniels obviously believes both can be starters in the NFL. Why wait until after another 8-8 season with Orton?

Because it beats a 4-12 season with a quarterback who isn't ready. Quinn is already fragile and throwing him out there when he doesn't know the offense as well as Orton seems ill-advised. Also, why ruin what potential Tim Tebow has by putting him out to run the Broncos offense before he is ready to do so?

Kyle Orton is going to be a free agent after the 2011 season. He will be gone soon enough. I don't understand the need to trade him for a late-round pick and take away the quarterback who knows the offense best.

McDaniels made a bold, highly controversial decision to jettison Jay Cutler in 2009. The trading of Orton wouldn't be as difficult — or unpopular.

This isn't like trading Jay Cutler at all and just because it isn't an unpopular decision doesn't mean it is the right decision. It would be a controversial decision in retrospect when the Broncos go from a competitive near playoff team to a team picking in the Top 10 in the NFL Draft after trading Orton. Josh McDaniels has run off a few good players and made some controversial decisions since coming to Denver. I don't know if getting rid of a player who provides some short-term opportunity to win games is smart.

Orton didn't make a stand or a statement last season. The Broncos let it get away.

Orton is a merely mediocre quarterback, but I don't see how a 5th/6th round pick makes up for the fact he is the best chance for the Broncos to compete this year.

The Broncos lost eight of their final 10, and in those games Orton had 12 touchdown passes, 11 interceptions and 2,337 yards. In nine games last season, the Broncos' offense didn't score more than 20 points

Now the Broncos have traded their starting tight end and their best wide receiver, so the Broncos could have an even worse offense. Is this the best time to throw Quinn or Tebow out there?

Nobody, Cutler included, would say Cutler had a good season. But his last 10 games were comparable to Orton's — a 4-6 record, 16 touchdown passes, 16 interceptions and 2,214 yards.

No one is arguing Orton is a great quarterback. I am arguing he is the Broncos best chance to win now and it doesn't matter if he starts because none of the three guys behind him appear to be ready to start and win games. Say the Broncos trade Orton and get a late-round pick back for him. What purpose does that pick serve to them this year...or even next year? They don't need a late-round pick, they need a guy to hold the quarterback job down until when/if Tebow or Quinn are ready to start.

If there was ever a 1st round quarterback who could use a season in an offensive system and need some time to get used to the NFL, it is Tim Tebow. Give him that time and don't start Quinn and turn your team into the Cleveland Browns-West. Quinn could be a good quarterback, but he doesn't have that much to work with. He needs more confidence, not less.

Orton is described as "smart, a leader, an overachiever, a tireless worker."

All qualities you don't want in a quarterback. Nor are these qualities you want other quarterbacks to learn from.

Orton knows, in the aftermath of recent major events, he is a temp, at best, a reservist waiting to happen, at worst. He should welcome a change in venue — to where he has a chance to start over.

He is a temp at best, but there are other NFL teams that will need quarterbacks and if Orton plays well he can get a new contract with a new team after his time with the Broncos ends. If he plays well, he will have a chance to start over with a free agent contract. Not to mention Orton knows the Broncos offense so it gives him the best chance to succeed, so I don't know why he would welcome a trade and be forced to start over with a new team.

A dozen teams could use a veteran reserve, but the Broncos, honestly, wouldn't get much more than a mid- round draft pick in return.

The Broncos need a veteran starter and the mid-round draft pick is nearly worthless to them compared to having an experienced starter.

He's not a true leader. The Broncos had Champ Bailey, D.J. Williams and Brian Dawkins in leadership roles on defense, but nobody on offense.

Just a few paragraphs ago Woody was talking about how Orton has been described as a leader, yet now he says Orton isn't a "true" leader. I don't get it. He is either a leader or he isn't.

Orton was dumped as a starter late in his rookie season with the Bears, barely played the next two seasons, started in 2008, didn't reach the postseason and was traded to the Broncos last year, where, again he fell short of the playoffs.

Orton was dumped as a starter after going 10-5 for the Bears. This is important to know. Granted, the Bears defense had a lot to do with this record, but if we are going to blame Orton for the Broncos doing poorly the second half of last year we have to give him some (a little bit) credit for the Bears doing well.

Everybody knows Orton is immobile, doesn't possess a powerful arm, vacillates when making passing choices and doesn't read defenses extremely well. Like Brian Griese, Orton has to play a near-perfect game to win — and receive a lot of help from his defense.

What are the alternatives? Brady Quinn may still have potential, but I don't think he is ready to start and should be given one year in the system before being thrust into a starting role. Tebow is NOT ready to start this year. He could win a few games, but I think he is better served to learn for a year and adjust to the NFL speed of the game. Orton is the guy and starting any other guy is a probable step back that doesn't need to be taken for a team that is jettisoning the best players from two years ago.

Orton is an average quarterback who couldn't start for 21 other teams in the league.

The problem is that neither could any of the other three quarterbacks that are options for the Broncos right now. This Tebow love is a bit out of hand. That's what I blame the reason Woody Paige wants to trade Kyle Orton. He thinks Tebow can jump in, be Superman at quarterback, and start for the Broncos. It really can't be Quinn who Woody thinks can be the starter in the future because Woody has said several times Tebow is the future. We have seen Tebow will need some more time to become an NFL quarterback. Perhaps Quinn could start this year, but I think Orton would have more success.

According to reports out of Jacksonville, the Jaguars have asked about a deal for Quinn. But the Broncos have been impressed with Quinn in OTAs (organized team activities) and will not let him go.

But I thought McDaniels' future in Denver is tied to Tim Tebow also? Didn't Woody Paige say that earlier in this column? Let's see:

Josh McDaniels, it has been asserted, has been joined at one hip with Tebow and, to the other, with Quinn,

I guess one could be the backup, but Tebow wasn't drafted to be a backup. Why not trade Quinn and keep Orton as the starter/backup and then start Tebow? Since Woody wants to start Tebow/Quinn so badly, do it, but keep a veteran backup.

What about Orton in Jacksonville? He might push David Gerrard.

Yeah he might, but why would the Jaguars trade for Orton when they already have a starter? What's the point for them to do this? Barring that, why would the Broncos trade their only established starter? I don't get how Orton could push David Gerrard for the starting job in Jacksonville, but he is too mediocre to start for the Broncos this year and lead them to success.

Maybe the cross-state Bucs would be attracted to Orton, or the Bills, whose owner, Ralph Wilson, said the Broncos "panicked" by picking Tebow and that Buffalo had "no interest" in the QB.

How stupid for someone to disagree with Woody about Tebow's future NFL prospects! Why would any team want Orton after Woody has pointed out all the negative aspects of Orton? Would there even be a trade market for him if a person had read what Woody wrote here? Actually, will there be a trade market for Orton regardless?

If Orton were to be shipped out, the Broncos would save his $2.6 million contract and have Brandstater at $395,000, Tebow in the first year of an approximate five-year, $15 million to $18 million contract (about $8 million guaranteed) and Quinn in the odd position of receiving $700,000, with the chance to earn $5.9 million (if he takes 70 percent of the snaps).

So to save $2.6 million dollars the Broncos would get a 5th/6th round pick at best and then have a failed starter who needs some nuturing, a rookie who isn't ready to start this year, and a guy who is a 2nd quarterback at best (Brandstater) competing for the starting job. This doesn't include the fact if Quinn is the starter for most of the season they may end up paying more for him than they would for Orton (I don't know much about the salary cap situation here, but it doesn't make sense to trade Orton to save money and then spend more money because another quarterback got a bonus for taking 70% of the snaps).

In a matter of two years, Josh McDaniels would have taken the Broncos from a threat in the AFC West to a team that is picking in the Top 10 of the NFL Draft. I just don't think these other guys are ready to be starters in the NFL.

That triad is the Broncos' solid future investment at quarterback.

FUTURE investment. Not present investment.

And for the good of all, Orton has to be passed along.

That would be for the good all, except for the Denver Broncos. As average of a quarterback as Kyle Orton is, he is the Broncos best option for this year and any suggestion to the contrary is just plain wrong in my mind.

4 comments:

  1. I think it's pretty obvious the plan in Denver is to keep Orton for one more year, then let him go, which is the right thing to do. By that time, maybe Quinn will come through or Tebow will learn how to throw the ball. Neither is a lock, but Denver needs time to figure out what they have. Were Quinn's problems partly the result of being in Cleveland, or is he a career backup? Was the Tebow pick a complete loss? It will take a little while to be sure, and Orton will be there for the evaluation. Then they'll sign Favre in 2011.

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  2. I would love for them to sign Favre. That would be a great ending to all this. I don't see the reason to get rid of Orton and force the Broncos into having a guy that can't at least go 6-10 for sure back there. They have traded away a lot of their best players and I don't think this is the right time to see what they have in Quinn and Tebow. Granted, those guys may be the future, but because they are the future doesn't mean they should be the present.

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  3. My impression is that Brady Quinn is exceedingly unlikely to be a good quarterback and that Bebe and Tim were drafted by a guy who's pretty determined to have yes men around him.

    Those poor, poor souls...

    -shah8

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  4. Another odd thing is not just that there's no evidence Quinn or Tebow are ready to start, but there's no reason to feel such a sense of urgency to get them in there. It's not like the Rodgers/Favre thing, where the Packers had seen the guy in practice for three years and had their hearts set on finally finding out what they had. Quinn and Tebow, on the other hand, just got there. It's also not like Orton has a Favre-like stranglehold on the starting job that if Quinn does some amazing gunslinging in the preseason you can't slot him in there. If he can earn it, let him earn it. If not, then Orton is the stopgap. This is all logical, which is probably why Woody wants to muck it up.

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