Joe Morgan Chooses Individual (Team) Awards

(Not so) Shockingly, in last week's chat Joe Morgan refused to make any predictions as to who would make the World Series this year. He also refused to predict who would win the Wild Card. Joe also informed us all that individual awards are really team awards. This must be why when Albert Pujols won the NL MVP last year it was awarded to the entire Cardinals team. That must be why the awards are called Most Valuable PLAYER or Rookie of the Year, not Team of the Year with a Rookie On It. This week Joe talks in preparation for the playoffs and...(drum roll please) names his regular season INDIVIDUAL award winners, but still won't make playoff predictions.

Buzzmaster (11:05am) Joe should be here shortly, everyone!

All three people eager to chat now are waiting with nervous anticipation for the debacle that is about to come.

Buzzmaster (11:08am) We've got Joe!

I guess ESPN is just lucky that Sunday Night Baseball starts on time every week. I am surprised each week the two teams that play on Sunday Night Baseball aren't held up for 20 minutes as good Joe Morgan belatedly makes his appearance in the ESPN booth to call the game.

Speaking of Joe being late, how does ESPN get him to the Sunday Night game on time? Do you think every week they fool Joe by telling there is a Big Red Machine reunion and to wear a suit and tie? Do they promise him chocolate cake or homemade brownies? He's late for his chats nearly every week. I bet ESPN has to trap Joe in a large cage several hours before the first pitch so they can carry him in the cage to the baseball game. They probably throw him scraps of the book "Moneyball" to eat when he gets hungry.

JM: What a great finish in the National League West and the Wild Card. San Diego made a great run, but San Francisco and Atlanta were able to hold them off and get into the playoffs. In this instance, the wild card and everything seem to work perfectly, as MLB would have wanted.

What's interesting about Joe Morgan is that he really isn't stupid. He said San Francisco would hold onto to the West and the Braves would take the Wild Card. He just refuses to actually predict this will happen.

Joe has said things like this and then hedged with something like, "as I have always said though, any team that plays the game of baseball in the league under the heading Major League Baseball can make the playoffs at any point. Except for the Pirates. I was reading something the other day...did you know the Pirates haven't been very good for a few years now. I was flabbergasted by this news."

Tito (Brooklyn)

Do you think the Padres choked down the stretch?

JM: I don't think they choked. They had bad luck at the wrong time.

Because at some point during a 10 game losing streak the talent of a team is forgotten and most of the losses are due to bad luck...like the luck that the team doesn't play well enough to win a game during that span.

"The Royals really didn't have a bad year. They aren't a bad team. They just had a bad decade during a time when most of the good teams in baseball were above .500."

It is very difficult for any team to lose 10 games in a row -- everything has to be going against you.

Or it could be because the team isn't playing well.

You can go back and look at the worst teams in the league -- they don't lose 10 in a row often. It's almost impossible to lose that many when you're a good team, which they are.

Let's do a checklist of what we know and assumptions we have made to see what could be the reason the Padres lost 10 games in a row:

1. The Padres are a good team.
2. It is hard to lose 10 games in a row.
3. The worst teams in the league don't lose 10 games in a row.
4. The Padres aren't one of the worst teams in baseball.
5. Therefore the Padres should not lose 10 games in a row.
6. It is hard to lose 10 games in a row when you are a good team.
7. The Padres are a good team.
8. Bad luck doesn't take over for a team for a stretch of games consecutive that make up 6% of the season. That's too much bad luck in a short span of time.
9. There is no reasonable explanation for a good team to lose 10 games in a row based completely on bad luck.
10. Therefore the Padres probably choked and had a poor performance when it counted the most.

Just bad breaks here and there. They bounced back against San Francisco and were within one game of making the playoffs.

Talent has nothing to do with winning baseball games now according to Joe. Teams will win games ONLY if excessive bad luck doesn't hit them at some point. Teams are at the mercy of the mystical winds of luck.

In reality, there are no way bad breaks here and there caused the Padres to lose 10 straight games. No way. It was just a coincidence the Padres played the worst baseball at the end of the year with the most amount of pressure on them.

I wonder if Joe denies the Holocaust ever happened using similar reasoning?

(Joe Morgan teaching a history class in college) "Adolf Hitler was the fuhrer of Germany before and during World War II. He was not a very good leader for Germany because he wasn't consistent in his message to the people. He would yell and then be happy in his messages. That left the people of Germany confused. In the end, people incorrectly blamed him for 6 million Jews in Germany committing a mass suicide over a near-decade period."

(Joe closes his textbook and is ready to dismiss the class)

(The class in awe at what Joe is saying. This is the most offensive thing Joe has ever said, including the time he asked the Hispanic student on the front row of the class if he could get a refill on chips and salsa, followed by Joe asking the same student after class what the easiest way to sneak across the border was. Joe is an offensive teacher.)

(Student A) "Sir, with all due respect, I am Jewish and you are wrong. Adolf Hitler was a terrible human being and he murdered those Jewish people. He murdered them by them by the millions."

(Joe Morgan) "Where's you proof at? You are Jewish? Prove it. Is your father an attorney?"

(Student A leaves the class immediately)

(Student B) "What I think he was trying to say is there are history books that show statistics that say---"

(Joe Morgan) "Let me stop you right there. Statistics? That's what the book has? My father went over to Germany during that time and saw with his own eyes that Jews were not being exterminated in any shape or manner. He checked every floor of his hotel for this occurrence and never saw it. I don't need statistics, I trust my father's judgment on what was happening."

(Student B) "So you are denying the Holocaust happened. How did all of the Jewish people in Germany die over the same time period?"

(Joe Morgan) "I don't know what their frame of mind was. I wasn't there, so I can't speak to why they all killed themselves. I refuse to say why this happened because I don't know. It would be wrong for me to say....here's what I think happened. I am guessing a few Jewish religious cults popped up, had mass suicides, and then here and there a few more Jewish people killed themselves because the economy was very bad in Germany during that time. If anyone has read the book "Anne Frank" you would know her family was so poor they had to live in the attic of a friend's house and weren't allowed to leave or else the police would arrest them and prosecute them for the debts they owed to the bank. Hitler wasn't a good leader at all. I want to emphasize that, but countries like Germany just don't kill a race of people like that. Germany is a great and wonderful country."

(Student C) "You are serious."

(Joe Morgan) "Hitler didn't commit mass murder, he had a few bad breaks under his leadership where large groups of people killed themselves. Now the Jewish people have bounced back and are thriving as attorneys. The fact all of you failed your mid-terms doesn't mean I am a bad teacher. It just means we had a few bad breaks along the way."

(Student A returns with the police who arrest Joe on suspicion of war crimes)

Jose (The Bronx)

Who do you think is the best team out of the teams that made it to the playoffs?

JM: Philadelphia. They have the experience of being in the playoffs the last four years, and the Yankees' starting pitching is in disarray.

Apparently Joe thinks only one team is capable of beating the Phillies.

They go in as the best team, although it doesn't mean they will win. Every team right now is capable of winning the World Series.

This goes without saying! So quit saying it. Quit hedging on your picks. Pick a team and say they are the best team in the playoffs! It's a question of opinion!

Reds Fans (orlando, FL)

Do we have any real chance against the Phils??

JM: You always have a chance, and the Reds do because they play hard, are aggressive, and believe in one another. The Phillies are not a perfect team -- they are prone to team-wide hitting slumps, and even Roy Halladay lost ten games on a good-hitting team.

(Stabs self in the eye)

Is there a chance, a small chance, that maybe the Phillies didn't hit well during a few of Halladay's starts? I'm guessing they didn't score 4 or more runs every time he was on the mound.

I think the first game is real critical for the Reds. If they win the first game, the momentum shifts.

The momentum shifts? There is no momentum before the first game because the series is at 0-0. Nothing has happened yet, so there can't be momentum.

Here's my weekly diatribe against Joe using wins to determine the Cy Young winner. The Reds got no-hit in the first game of that series by Halladay. Let's pretend the Phillies didn't get a run all game when Halladay was no-hitting the Reds and Halladay walked the first batter of the 10th inning, then left the game. The relief pitcher who takes over for him gives up a triple and the Phillies go on to lose. Halladay gets the loss, but he pitched a fucking no-hitter, so he pitched well. The Reds relief pitcher who probably pitched 1-2 innings gets the win. End of extreme example.

As Joe freely admits, the Phillies didn't always score for Roy Halladay, so why would he judge Felix Hernandez (yes, I jumped back to this issue) for not having "enough" wins to win the Cy Young award? My rambling will make more sense in a minute when we reveal Joe's individual awards that are also team awards.

Adam (NYC)

C'mon Joe! Your ardent chat fans wanna know who you think is going to win this World Series... (and why so?) You da man!

Nice try Adam. This try fails...

JM: Last year, I picked the Yankees because they were head and shoulders above everyone else, and they had three excellent starters. This year, only CC Sabathia really retains that title for them. Philadelphia has the best rotation right now, so you have to favor them, but all this is on paper. The game is played on the field. I can't pick a winner right now.

(Fast forward to early March next year after the Phillies win the World Series when Joe takes credit for saying the Phillies are the best team in baseball, therefore acts like he predicted they would win the World Series)

Tito (Brooklyn)

Now that the Twins have homefield advantage in the ALDS, do you think this is the year they finally beat the Yankees?

JM: They haven't been able to beat them at home or anywhere else before in the ALDS, but the Yankees are a unique team in that they have so many guys who can carry them for a few games at a time.

I don't think the Twins have that much firepower to be able to carry them, but they play fundamentally sound baseball.

The Twins also need to avoid a string of bad luck like the Padres had earlier and lose three straight games to the Yankees. This is always possible, because to Joe Morgan the "luck" factor trumps the "talent" factor every time.

Quick aside: I like Ron Gardenhire, but I heard during Game 1 of the Twins-Yankees series that the Twins had led the Yankees at some point in the last seven games and lost them all. At some point, don't managerial decisions and bullpen moves by the Twins come into question? Last Wednesday night, Ron Gardenhire was the only person in the world who didn't know Francisco Liriano needed to come out of the game. I know he wanted to get a matchup of a LH pitcher against Curtis Granderson, but why didn't he bring in Jose Mijares out of the pen to face Granderson rather than wait for Granderson to beat them and then bring Mijares out of the pen? At some point, managerial strategy has to come into question when a team loses consistently in the playoffs and that team had the lead in many of those games.

Bobby (Texas)

When he's healthy, Josh Hamilton is the best position player in the playoffs this year. True or False?

I bet Joe will say, true AND false.

JM: You can argue that point, but if I were picking someone at this point, I'd go with Robinson Cano.

Really? Like this would be Joe's actual argument he is trying to make and also win?

Let's look at the nominees for this fake award:

Josh Hamilton: 32 HR, 100 RBI, .359/.411/.633, OPS+ 175
Evan Longoria: 22 HR, 104 RBI, .294/.372/.507, OPS+ 142
Robinson Cano: 29 HR, 109 RBI, .319/.381/.534, OPS+142
Joe Mauer: 9 HR, 75 RBI, .327/.402/.469, OPS+ 137

Aubrey Huff: 26 HR, 86 RBI, .290/.385/.506, OPS+ 138
Jayson Werth: 27 HR, 85 RBI, .296/.388/.532, OPS+ 145
Jason Heyward: 18 HR, 72 RBI, .277/.393/.456, OPS+ 131
Joey Votto: 37 HR, 113 RBI, .324/.424/.600, OPS+ 174

From these numbers, at least from an offensive standpoint, it looks like Hamilton and Votto are the two best position players in the playoffs. I know Cano plays a position that is usually tougher to find a quality hitter at as compared to CF and 1B, but I would say Votto and Hamilton are the two best position players in the playoffs. Stay tuned for more Robinson Cano madness from Joe Morgan.

Hamilton is a dynamic player when healthy, but we don't know how healthy he is, and how missing all that time will affect his timing.

We aren't really talking about the best position player in the future, but the best position player, based on the season, in the playoffs right now. So when Hamilton is healthy he is at the top of this discussion.

Jose (The Bronx)

Now that the season is over, what are your picks for AL and NL MVP and AL and NL Cy Young awards?

Strap in. Hold on and prepare for the worst.

JM: For the AL Cy Young, I pick CC Sabathia,

If by "CC Sabathia" you mean "Felix Hernandez," then good choice my friend. I know a person isn't stupid enough to ignore the fact Felix beats out CC in nearly every category except for wins and then give the Cy Young award to Sabathia. Actually, there is at least one person stupid enough to do this. I won't give you his name, but it rhymes with Hoe Jorgan.

I've gone over and over the reason why Hernandez should be the choice over Sabathia, so suffice to say I still feel this way. Anyone who votes for Sabathia and can't base it on anything other than wins should have their vote taken away.

and Robinson Cano for MVP.

Another fail. Robinson Cano should not be the MVP of the American League. Where would the Yankees be without Cano on the roster? Probably still in the playoffs. Where would the Rangers be without Hamilton in the lineup? It's more in doubt whether they would be in the playoffs or not. Throw in the fact Hamilton is even better than Cano statistically and it just helps me feel like my opinion is reinforced. Hamilton was more valuable to the Rangers this year than Cano was to the Yankees.

In fact, I would possibly vote for Evan Longoria over Robinson Cano. So in my mind, Cano is third in the MVP race...partially (maybe 10%) because he may not even be the most valuable player on his own team.

In the NL, I pick Joey Votto for MVP,

I would be impressed but I know Joe only chose Votto because his team made the playoffs over Pujols' Cardinals.

and I think because of innings and everything else combined, Roy Halladay for Cy Young.

How about the fact he was the best fucking pitcher in the National League this year? It's pretty much a consensus from every "expert" I have read.

For the rookies, I picked Jason Heyward of the Braves because he was excellent for the entire year.

Buster Posey was more excellent for less of the year, which was completely out of his control. Usually I stomp on the ground and cry when a worthy Braves player isn't chosen Rookie of the Year, but I may choose Posey for this award. I don't care he didn't play an entire year. That's irrelevant to me. Posey couldn't play the entire year because the Giants didn't call him up. He still played in 108 games and had over 400 at-bats, so it is not like he only played the last two months of the season.

In the AL, it's very difficult because I give an edge to Neftali Feliz, because he helped the Rangers win a division, but Austin Jackson was my favorite rookie to watch.

(Stabs self in the other eye)

What does it matter if Feliz helped his team win the division? That's right, I forgot that Joe considers these awards to be team awards. Little does he know the best rookie DOES NOT have to come from a team that made the playoffs.

Matthew (Columbia, NJ)

Hey Joe, what was your most memorable moment from the 2010 regular season?

JM: Watching Jim Joyce blow that play ... I was watching live on TV and couldn't believe it. Additionally, the perfect game from Halladay and all the no-hitters this year.

Halladay hadn't thrown his second no-hitter at this point, so Joe's favorite moment of the 2010 season was actually six moments.

Herbie (Cincinnati)

Joe. Is Brandon Phillips the best Reds 2nd Baseman since your tenure?

JM: He's great. He makes unbelievable plays at second, and for a stretch there, he was the best Reds player I've seen in a long time.

It's good to see that Joe isn't letting the fact he works for the Reds and has a relationship with Brandon Phillips affect his opinion of Phillips. He's only saying Phillips was one of the best Reds player he has seen in a long time...while Phillips was on the same team as Joe's MVP choice, Joey Votto. Joe is basically drooling over a player that has shown himself to be an above average player at second base over his entire career.

He said Phillips for a stretch was the best Reds player he has seen in a long time. Hopefully Joe defines "a long time" as "until the next time Joey Votto bats this year, not including anything Votto did during the 2009 season, anything Adam Dunn ever did in Cincinnati, any of Ken Griffey Jr.'s years in Cincinnati or any of the other great seasons that are better than Phillips' "stretch" over the past 20 years a Reds player has had."

I would say yes, but there have been some good players there.

Joe would yes, that Phillips is the best, or yes there have been good players at second base for the Reds so Phillips isn't the best? Where are we again?

Lou (South Bend)

Joe, do you think the Yankees should "give away the farm" to Jeter this offseason?

JM: If you're the Yankees, you have to be concerned that you have many years left with A-Rod at a high number, and with Jeter being 36,

What in Joespeak would "years left with A-Rod at a high number" mean? Is he using Joespeak to say that A-Rod is getting older and the Yankees should be concerned with his production? Is he talking about salary? I've never heard the term "years left at a high number" to refer to age or salary.

I don't know how long you give him or how long he can continue to play shortstop. His offense has suffered from past performances.

Again, more Joespeak, and less of me understanding what he means. Jeter's offense has suffered from past performances? Does The Jeter lose ability based on how well he has performed in the past?

I don't think there's any doubt that they have to sign him. It depends on how hard he pushes.

Ok, now he may be talking about The Jeter going into labor. I'm not sure at this point. Let's move on...

AA (Atown)

Do you think Don Mattingly will be a good manager?

JM: It's difficult to say how good someone will be when they're starting a new job. He's been around some good managers so he's likely picked things up from them.

(A hologram of Joe Torre appears in Don Mattingly's office when a computer is turned on)

"Don Mattingly, you are my only hope. You must use at least one of your relievers 100 times in a season and try to ruin his career. Sign Scott Proctor and do it to him. Use your closer for multiple innings, like I used Mariano Rivera, except I could only do that because Rivera was such a badass and few other relievers are effective in this role. I can not help you much longer, I have been too successful during my career. I'm getting weak from past performances. Save my legacy..."

Wade (Cincinnati)

What would be the most interesting World Series Match up? Who wins?

JM: For me, it'd be the Reds playing the Rays.

Notice how Joe doesn't give us a winner because there would be no winner. In fact there would be no World Series. Both teams would get together for three hours, play softball, eat ice cream, comb each other's hair and talk about how Ryan Howard is so underrated because Matt Holliday should get criticism too for the size of his contract. Then both teams would go to the video store and pick out two movies to watch together...but something romantic and not too action-oriented.

I would also comment on Joe picking the team he works for as the team he wants to see in the World Series, but that would involve 500 words about how Joe's conflict of interest in working for the Reds and working for ESPN should be addressed by either ESPN or the Reds. Let's just say I don't get how it isn't a conflict of interest for Joe to be employed as a MLB baseball analyst and employed by a MLB baseball team.

Tito (Brooklyn)

Do you think the Mets needed to get rid of the both the GM and the manager?

JM: The organization kind of self-destructed -- players getting hurt, underperforming -- so it was a tough situation. I don't see how they could have told their fans that they were going to do this again and hope their players were healthy. Both of them were undermined by players not performing to their capabilities.

The players didn't perform to their capabilities because they were hurt a lot. I think both guys needed to get fired potentially, but many of the players got hurt too. So I don't think these players undermined the manager and general manager in any way. I think "undermined" is the wrong word to use.

Basically, I'm still a fan of both Manuel's and Minaya's, and I think they should be given opportunities elsewhere, though probably not together.

Because a manager and a general manager that are both competent should never be in the same organization together. If Joe is a fan of Manuel and Minaya then I would assume he thinks they are both competent. So why would why Joe not think a competent manager and general manager should be given opportunities at the same place? This tells me Joe doesn't really think they are competent because if Manuel and Minaya both knew what they were doing in their respective positions it would seem to be no problem with them teaming up again as manager and general manager.

This is a great time of the year. This is where players show how good they really are and how they can perform under pressure. If you watch the Ryder Cup, you saw a lot of guys succumb to the pressure of the moment. We'll see who can handle the big stage.

Any predictions Joe on who can handle the big stage? No? How about a team that has a group of players that may be able to handle the big stage better than another team? Nothing?