Why Is Jason Heyward Getting More At-Bats a Bad Thing?

There is a sort-of-but-not-really mini crisis going on in Atlanta right now. Jason Heyward is batting sixth in the Braves lineup on a consistent basis. I don't think it is necessarily Heyward hitting sixth that bothers some people, it is Nate McLouth hitting second instead of Heyward. McLouth has been pretty bad for the Braves since coming over from the Pirates. Now, the mini-crisis may be over or it may not be. Gonzalez refuses to say whether batting Heyward second in the lineup is permanent or not.

I will assume Fredi Gonzalez intends on sticking with this lineup, quite possibly until the day Jason Heyward leaves Atlanta to sign with the Yankees as a free agent in early 2017 (I think that's the date on my calendar this will happen). Anyway, Fredi Gonzalez wants us to know he isn't backing down on this and doesn't care if he has to use fuzzy logic to defend the move.

It doesn’t sound as if Braves manager Fredi Gonzalez is planning significant changes to his lineup. So don’t expect to see Jason Heyward batting second anytime soon.

Actually, Heyward did bat sixth a few days after this was written, but it isn't permanent and then Heyward was back in the 2-hole the day after that. It was just a tease. If it wasn't a small sample size, I would mention Heyward went 2-8 with a home run in the two games where he hit second. It is a small sample size of course, so I won't mention that, but as terrible as that is, it is still better than McLouth.

Plenty of fans and baseball analysts have opined that Gonzalez should move slugger and on-base-percentage machine Heyward up from his current sixth slot.

I have a very simple reason for saying this should happen. Jason Heyward should get as many at-bats as possible during the season. He gets on-base and the best place for him is second in the lineup because Jones, Uggla and McCann should be in the 3rd/4th/5th spots of the lineup. It's pretty simple. It's not about "protecting" anyone, but simply getting Heyward more at-bats.

The No. 2 position – Nate McLouth’s current spot — is a preferred destination of many critics.

Fangraphs has an article that basically says, "Having McLouth hit second isn't costing the Braves THAT many runs if you project McLouth's season optimistically" as the reasoning for Braves fans not worrying. I'm not going to get into the statistics of it, partially because I haven't looked into ZIPS very much in evaluating a player, but I will say I wouldn't go with the optimistic valuation of McLouth.

The two other reasons from this article about not worrying trouble me as well if I were a Braves fan:

1. Dave Cameron, the author, basically saying that it is a smart move based on ZIPS given McLouth's career statistics. Normally, I wouldn't have a problem with this, but McLouth has been awful over the past two seasons in Atlanta, so thinking he will hit his career averages, when he hasn't indicated he is capable of this is too optimistic for me.

McLouth has a career line in Pittsburgh of .261/.339.462.
McLouth has a career line in Atlanta of .227/.327/.370.

That's as of April 18th. So he has been bad in Atlanta and has been especially awful in 2010 and the first part of 2011, so even his average hitting during 2009 skews these numbers a bit.

2. The second reason he says Braves fans shouldn't worry is...and I will quote him exactly:

But if McLouth is going to hit like a middle infielder for the rest of 2011, odds are pretty good he’s not going to hit second all year. Gonzalez is not a stupid person, and he’s not going to keep an underperforming McLouth hitting at the top of the order all season. If the pessimistic assessment of his abilities is true, the difference in performance will be larger, but the length of time that this experiment lasts will be shorter.

So basically if McLouth keeps hitting like he has been then Fredi Gonzalez will eventually move him out of the second spot in the lineup. So basically don't worry Braves fans because your manager can't be stupid and keep McLouth in the second spot all year, even though the circumstantial evidence McLouth would hit better than Heyward at the beginning of the year wasn't compelling to anyone with eyes and Gonzalez still handed the second spot in the order to McLouth.

Besides, Gonzalez wants a second hitter that is fast and can bunt really well. I'm not kidding. That's his criteria for why McLouth is qualified for the job.

So I acknowledge Fan Graphs says not to worry, but what should worry the world in general is Gonzalez's entire logic behind the move. I say it should worry the world because one year it is a single manager using logic like this, the next year we see Josh Hamilton batting 7th in an attempt to protect Mike Napoli at the bottom of the Texas Rangers batting order.

“Yeah,” he said. “When you make out the lineup, the lineup is a function of the entire lineup – eight guys, not just one guy.

Which is why the entire logic of putting Heyward in the sixth spot to protect Dan Uggla and ensuring there is a rightie/leftie lineup all through the order doesn't make sense. We know the lineup is a function of the entire lineup, which is why batting your second best hitter sixth in the batting order doesn't necessarily make sense. In the function of the entire lineup, the second place hitter needs to be on-base for the other hitters in the lineup and using him to protect one other batter in a spot where he can be on-base for lesser hitters (namely Alex Gonzalez/Freddie Freeman) doesn't seem smart.

Statisticians, numbers crunchers and my SABR [Society for American Baseball Research] people – I’m a member – they shoot holes in that stuff.

Simply because you are a member doesn't mean all your decisions are SABR-approved.

But you’re dealing with humans in the way the lineup is constructed.

What? I thought these players were all robots?

Robots or humans, I think your best hitters need to get the most at-bats possible in the spot in the order where his value is optimized. I don't see how that is the sixth spot for Heyward.

“Yeah, you put this guy in the No. 2 hole, but what are you going to do to the 6-hole?

Put a player in there too? I don't see how the concern over what to do with the 6-hole means a lesser player (and more ill-fitted player) has to hit in the 2-hole. Did I miss memo where the sixth spot in the order was pronounced the most important spot in a batting order? Again, you want your best hitters getting the most at-bats at the best possible spot for them in the order. You want your best hitters to have guys to drive in as well. Nate McLouth's two biggest qualifications to bat in the second spot so far have been:

He isn't hitting well.
He can bunt.
He has "speed," which he utilize by running back to the dugout quickly after contributing nothing to the Braves team in the 2-hole.

What are you going to do to [No. 5 hitter Dan] Uggla when he’s hitting good?”

Watch him drive in more runs because there are more runners on-base? I thought the lineup was a function of the entire lineup and not just about one player. It seems Heyward hitting sixth is derived out of the primary function of making sure Dan Uggla has protection behind him. If Nate McLouth is good enough to hit in front of Chipper Jones, then why isn't he good enough to hit behind Dan Uggla?

It is some form of backward logic Gonzalez is using. Rather than worrying about the middle of the order having runners to bat in, he is worried the middle of the order has enough "protection," so they have a chance to get good pitches to hit, while forgetting he is burying one of his best players in the sixth spot. It doesn't matter if the middle of the order has "protection" or good pitches to hit if there aren't guys on-base to drive in. After saying the batting order is not about one player, Gonzalez has designed his entire batting order around two players, Nate McLouth and Dan Uggla. That doesn't make sense.

Gonzalez believes his current lineup is balanced, and that that balances, along with the alternating left-handed/right-handed situation up and down the order, will cause difficulties for opposing managers when most of the Braves are hitting well.

It's not balanced because a guy who got on-base at a .393 clip as a rookie is hitting sixth in the lineup for a guy who has a career high OBP of .356 and an OBP in 2010 of .298. His best hitters aren't getting the most at-bats in the spot of the order that maximizes their value.

“Like the situation [Tuesday], when McLouth bunts [Martin] Prado over to third,” he said. “Now are you are going to play the infield in?

This comment explains my entire problem perfectly. McLouth BUNTS Prado over to third base. Who wants a guy like Heyward who can actually get on-base without bunting when you can give away an out and bunt?

Are you going to pitch to Chipper or pitch to [No. 4 hitter Brian] McCann? That kind of stuff.

(Announcer #1) "What a move by Gonzalez! He has had McLouth bunt and now Martin Prado is at third-base. ARE THE CARDINALS GOING TO MOVE THE INFIELD IN OR NOT! YOUR MOVE LARUSSA!"

(Announcer #2) "I don't understand what's happening. It is the first inning. Why would the infield be drawn in?"

(Announcer #1) "You just don't get it. It's all part of the lineup function of the Braves. Are the Cardinals going to pitch to Chipper or McCann? Or will LaRussa just decide to walk those two guys and load the bases?"

(Announcer #2) "Don't we have that question anyway? First base is still open if the second hitter gets an out, so the Cardinals would still have to make this decision on how to pitch to Jones and McCann. It may have made more sense to put Heyward in the second spot and then hope he gets a base-hit or gets on-base, thereby having Jones and McCann up with zero outs."

(Announcer #1 spitting on Announcer #2) "Then who the hell would protect Dan Uggla?"

(Announcer #2) "What does Uggla have to do with this? I thought we were talking about the situation LaRussa was in about whether to pitch to Jones and McCann."

(Announcer #1 flashes his SABR card at Announcer #2) "I am a member, so I know what I am talking about. If Heyward is in the second spot then how the hell is Uggla supposed to be protected?"

(Announcer #2 screaming) "What does Dan Uggla have to do with the situation LaRussa is in right now? He isn't up for two more batters."

(Announcer #1) "But now LaRussa has to decide whether to pitch to Jones and McCann. What a move by Fredi Gonzalez. I have an erection."

(Announcer #2) "Of course he is going to pitch to them. It's the first inning. I am so confused as to what decision has to be made by Tony LaRussa. Potentially, if Jason Heyward were in the second spot then the Braves would have runners on first and third right now with zero outs. The point of an offense is to score runs."

(Announcer #1) "Actually, a lineup's purpose is to be functional. Yeah, Heyward could hit second, but then LaRussa wouldn't have to make a decision on whether to pitch to Jones or McCann because he would obviously pitch to them and that doesn't make it a functional lineup. It's all about a functional lineup."

(Announcer #2 sits in silence very confused)

(Announcer #1) "Tough break for the Braves as Jones walked and then McCann and Uggla struck out. Braves can't get a run across. The good news is Jason Heyward leads off the next inning for the Braves."

As far as Prado being at third, the same question would remain if Heyward was in the second spot. If someone bunted Prado over or (God forbid) got a base hit in the second spot, would the other team play the infield in or not? It depends purely on what inning it is and the circumstances of the game. The decision for the other team BEFORE the second spot comes up is how to pitch to Heyward because Chipper Jones is behind him in the lineup. Putting McLouth there lets the opposing team attack him (assuming he doesn't bunt) because he isn't a dangerous hitter and ensures Jones will come up with one out...at least ensuring moreso than if Heyward were in the second spot.

“When everybody doing things like we did yesterday, hitting gappers, hitting some balls out of the ballpark, it makes [the lineup] good.”

Of course, anytime a team is hitting the ball well the lineup looks really good. This is kind of "no-shit" statement. This reminds me of what one of my friends says in reference to his favorite college basketball team that annoys the shit out of me. He will say, "When UNC is hitting their three-point shots and playing great defense they can't be beat." No shit. That goes for pretty much any basketball team.

The same thing applies to a lineup here. If a lineup is hitting well, the lineup is good. I get concerned sometimes about things managers say.

Some critics have cited the additional 60-80 plate appearances that Heyward could get if he hit high in the order as a big flaw in Gonzalez’s lineup. He was asked specifically about that fact and if he thought it was outweighed by the overall function of the lineup.

Right. The "overall function of the lineup," which appears to be "protect Dan Uggla and make sure Nate McLouth hits well enough to be an average players" as opposed to the highly less logical, "score more fucking runs to win games."

“I think the way the lineup is constructed is more important,” he said,

No one is going to argue this point. Bottom line...the Braves lineup is constructed to where their second-best hitter sees less plate appearances, has fewer opportunities to get driven in when on-base and has less protection (if we REALLY want to talk about protection) then he would otherwise get batting second in the lineup.

Mumbling some crap about "overall function" of a lineup or talking about lineup construction is great. The problem is the overall function of a lineup is to score runs and even using overly optimistic projections of McLouth's hitting abilities still has the Braves scoring more runs with Jason Heyward hitting second rather than McLouth.

“Then why don’t we lead off [Albert] Pujols? Or [Barry] Bonds? Lead ‘em off.”

BECAUSE THEY ARE GUYS WHO DRIVE IN RUNS AND IF THEY HIT FIRST THEY CAN'T DRIVE IN AS MANY RUNS.

The fact Fredi Gonzalez said this tells me he doesn't understand the counter-argument to batting McLouth second in the batting order. No one is saying you should bat your best hitters as far up in the lineup as possible. The counter-argument is that a fast, great hitting, OBP-machine like Jason Heyward should be batting in the lineup at a spot where he is on-base to get driven in or in a spot where he can drive in runs. Since the third spot in the batting order is taken, the second spot is the best place for him.

To suggest Bonds or Pujols should bat higher in the order, even out of jest, shows Gonzalez just doesn't get it. They should not bat lead off because they need to be at-bat when there are runners on-base. Jason Heyward is a runner who would be on-base, because that's what he does well.

Gonzalez then came back to reiterate one of the factors he emphasizes – the “human being” aspect. He’s said several times that part of why he decided in the spring to put McLouth in the 2-hole – besides his speed and bunting ability — was that he wanted him to get more fastballs, to get him going after his career-worst 2010 season.

Because the primary function of the 2011 Braves lineup should be to make sure an outfielder who had two seasons of being an above average player gets back to that point. This logic coming from Gonzalez who previously said the function of the lineup isn't about one player, which clearly was a complete lie.

For fuck's sake...why the hell would you put McLouth in the second spot for his bunting ability when you can put a guy in that spot who can get on-base and doesn't have to give up an out? Can we fire Fredi Gonzalez now? He is placing players in the lineup based on their ability to BUNT.

I would also like to talk about McLouth's "speed." He has 84 career stolen bases and 39 stolen bases since the beginning of the 2009 season. Is his "speed" really that important to the Braves lineup compared to Heyward's ability to hit the baseball?

“Believe me,” Gonzalez said, “when a guy’s going good in a certain spot — he likes it; he’s comfortable –

Unfortunately, Nate McLouth isn't "going good" and hasn't been for two years now.

“When you’re going bad, you come up with the bases loaded every time. I mean, you can be hitting 11th and it’ll happen. When you’re going good, it doesn’t matter.

Clearly, Fredi Gonzalez is a spy sent from another team to submarine any chances the Braves have to win 90 games.

“Everybody [in the lineup] has got a function.”

More gibberish. The function of a guy with a batting average below .250, below an OBP of .300 and has shown no power is to push his ass as far down the lineup as possible. The function of a guy who hits .270+, with an OBP of .370+ and who can hit 20 home runs is to have him up to the plate as much as possible.

The function of Fredi Gonzalez is to talk gibberish in a terrible attempt to justify his crazy lineup.