MMQB Review: Gruden Knows Best Edition

Peter King has some thoughts about the NCAA Tournament in last week's MMQB.  He made a comment that Wichita State was 4-0 in the tourney, while not noting this is a pretty obvious statistic since a team has to win four games and not lose any in order to make the Final Four. Peter also said Seattle is an underrated food town because of the good pizza (since that's the only food available in Seattle) restaurants in the city. This week Peter passively-aggressively tries to get a cameo in a movie that honestly sounds like a bad "Moneyball" ripoff, he (cringes) makes a good point about the 2008 draft, breaks the news to us that Raiders haven't been very good over the past few years and has a travel note that isn't like his other travel notes, which I am still not sure what that means. And oh yeah, there aren't any elite prospects at the top of the NFL Draft. We'll see if this comment holds up 7-8 months from now when Peter is fawning over a rookie quarterback or the impact Jarvis Jones makes on defense for the team that drafts him.

Now this could be a lot of fun.

An October pool party celebrating Brett Favre's "Average interceptions per year" birthday, otherwise known as Favre turning 44?

On the night of the first round of the draft, April 25, at Radio City Music Hall in New York, a major motion picture starring Kevin Costner will begin filming. It's called Draft Day. It's about the Cleveland Browns dealing for the first pick in the draft, and the frenzied hours around the trade and the pick, and the drama includes Costner playing the general manager of the Browns (he's cuter than Mike Lombardi).

Son of a bitch, Peter. No one is homophobic around here, but don't go calling men "cute." No man wants to be called "cute" by another man. Okay, maybe not no one, but very close to no one.

What the hell kind of train of thought goes through Peter's mind when writing MMQB that leads him to calling another man "cuter than Mike Lombardi?" Is it an inability to think of adjectives or just pure laziness in wanting to think of other adjectives? Between Peter constantly writing "precocious," and "cute" in reference to grown men I'm really starting to worry about his ability to interact with boys between the age of 12-18. When he meets a friend's 13 year old son does he say, "Boy, Charles you are getting really, really cute?" Probably not. Then don't write it either.

I asked a veteran NFL operative who has read the Draft Day script about the movie, and he said, "Pretty realistic."

Count me in as not intrigued.

And there is a Costner love interest, working in the front office of the Browns, who could give the whole thing its requisite Hollywood touch. (Variety reported last week the movie could co-star Jennifer Garner.)

Just say no, Jennifer. Do it for Ben Affleck. He can't be married to a woman who started her career out so strong with "Alias" and then ended up being the love interest to Kevin Costner in a bad ripoff of "Moneyball." Have standards. You married the most successful Affleck brother, don't lower yourself to Casey's level.

One last note about Draft Day: Seems Costner's original team was going to be the Buffalo Bills. But late in negotiations for on-location filming, Ohio offered the filmmakers a better deal. (Much to New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo's chagrin, I hear. He got involved and tried to keep the picture as a total New York-based film.) So that's how he became Browns GM Kevin Costner, instead of Bills GM Kevin Costner.

I keep referring to this movie as a bad "Moneyball" ripoff without any proof. Come on, you know it is a bad "Moneyball" ripoff. The plot will include older scouts who like one player, younger scouts who like another player, Costner jumping ahead of a rival GM (who is most likely a dick to Costner) through trade to nab a great player, this draft will be Costner's last chance to put together a great team or he will be fired, and you know the Assistant GM for the Browns will also be a dick who only wants Costner's job because apparently there are no other NFL GM jobs available. Part of me hates sports movies because I feel like I can be given a small outline of the plot and I already know what will happen through most of the movie. Also, Costner will probably have a daughter and will learn to love again while also putting together a Super Bowl winning team.

Now for what I have this week:

• Jon Gruden on the "Shaky the Mohel'' quarterback class (Florio gets that) of 2013 ... and why he's smart to like Ryan Nassib.

Of course Jon Gruden likes Ryan Nassib! He likes everything. "This guy right here, he's the best at his position until I say next week another player is the best at that position!"

I know Jon Gruden is going to like the 2013 quarterback class too. He likes everything. He thinks communism is misunderstood. He liked "Gigli" and thinks Kim Kardashian has wasted talent.

• Reggie McKenzie on taking his medicine -- prescribed by Al Davis and Hue Jackson -- today, in hopes for a better Raider tomorrow.

Don't get me started on the Hue Jackson trade for Carson Palmer. It was a horrific trade masterminded by Jackson, but Raiders management had to in some way agree to it. I think Jackson gets a bad rap for having been a head coach for only one season. Yes, the Palmer trade was terrible, but it isn't like Jackson made that decision in a vacuum.

You'll see Jon Gruden at his cocky, snarling, football-smarts best this week, when he continues his must-see-TV series breaking down the top quarterbacks in the draft.

I have only watched one "Gruden QB Camp" and will never watch another one. It's boring and over-edited. Plus, he is having Manti Te'o on the show this year. It's bad enough I'm supposed to believe Jon Gruden is a QB genius when it comes to finding young talent (look at his record as a head coach, he isn't quite at genius level), but now he is evaluating middle linebackers in a desperate attempt for ESPN to get ratings? No thanks.

What I find interesting about these segments, mostly, is they show quarterbacks in their natural habitat, or what will be their natural habitat in the NFL: the tape room, with the whiteboard for a coach, or player, to draw up plays. And they show which quarterbacks can keep up with one of the best quarterback minds alive, Gruden.

Maybe I'm just way off or maybe there aren't that many best quarterback minds currently alive. For me, Gruden's reputation is bigger than his results. I guess I have higher expectations than Gruden has shown me or am looking for him to win games with a young quarterback. He's fantastic at taking veterans and having them run his offense well. I will give him that. I just don't think he is very good at identifying and developing young quarterback talent. I guess Chris Simms worked out well for a period of time, but then there is Bruce Gradkowski, Josh Johnson, Luke McCown, and Marques Tuiasosopo. Gruden is good, but I wouldn't say he is one of the best quarterback minds alive. Maybe I'm just being hard on him.

So much of what quarterbacks are asked to do these days in college football comes prescribed from the sidelines. All the pre-snap reads in so many programs are done by signal, and you wonder if quarterbacks, when they get to the NFL, can adjust to checks at the line and what the defense is throwing at the young passer. As Gruden said to me: "This guy knows a huge volume of plays, and he showed me he can execute the plays by reading what the defense is doing.''

BREAKING NEWS: Jon Gruden likes Geno Smith. Who could have foreseen this?

That's what's great about these shows. The players can't hide. Gruden throws friendly fire at them, but it's fire. They have to respond intelligently, or he'll eat them up. Affectionately, but you'll be able to tell they've got some recognition weaknesses.

He's talking about you Cam Newton. You couldn't recite a play from Auburn and that has translated to the NFL where you aren't a leader. You got Grudened!

I asked Gruden Saturday what he thought of the 2013 class of passers.

Spoiler alert: He probably fucking loves them. They are cute and precocious.

"Last year was a ridiculous year for quarterbacks,'' he said. "I mean, five starters right away. This year, it's like every one of these guys comes from broken quarterback families. Tyler Bray at Tennessee: recruited by Lane Kiffin, family moves to Knoxville, everybody's excited, and Kiffin goes to USC. Bray ends up playing for another coach, coach [Derek] Dooley, who didn't even recruit him.

Russell Wilson left N.C. State after three years and played for Wisconsin for only one year in a completely different offense, Andrew Luck lost his head coach to the NFL prior to his junior year (he did keep his offensive coordinator as his head coach), Ryan Tannehill played wide receiver for the majority of his college career, and Brandon Weeden started playing football after failing at being a professional baseball player. It's not like all of the 2012 class came to the NFL from a completely stable college environment. 

"Tyler Wilson at Arkansas: Bobby Petrino has his situation, he leaves, and Wilson -- now, he was the all-SEC quarterback under Petrino two years ago -- has to play in a disastrous situation at Arkansas, and he's wildly inconsistent last year. Matt Barkley at USC: Held that team together through all kinds of turmoil. Geno Smith at West Virginia: They go from one conference to a totally different one, and now he's playing at Baylor and Texas instead of the Big East -- and that's a huge difference -- and you're having to learn about new teams with new defenses while you have this 20-hour rule, all you can spend is 20 hours a week practicing and studying football, and how do you do that? So it's like nobody had the smooth sailing of some of the guys last year did.''

Yeah, I'm not sure that's entirely accurate. Again, Russell Wilson learned a completely new offense after leaving N.C. State and Ryan Tannehill was a wide receiver for most of his college career. I'm not sure how that can be defined as smooth sailing.

So as opposed to saying nice things about these quarterbacks he is making excuses for them. Geno Smith has to switch conferences and play in the same offensive system. The horror! Matt Barkley played in the same offense for three years. How did he manage to survive in such a non-stable situation?

I keep hearing both Nassib and Manuel as late-first-round prospects. Nassib in particular, and certainly more than Manuel. Gruden seems fascinated by both.

Jon Gruden would like a quarterback even if he didn't have legs and weighed 400 pounds. Gruden would talk about how the player has overcome so much and boy he can really hand out punishment when he runs. Plus, he's so hard to bring down with his bionic legs and 400 pound weight!

The Bills are coached by Nassib's four-year college coach, Doug Marrone. NFL types think Marrone loves him some Nassib.

What an unstable situation that was for Nassib.

I could tell by listening to Gruden he likes Nassib. A lot.

(Bengoodfella falls out of his chair due to being so damn shocked that Gruden likes a quarterback)

As for Manuel: "He'd be a fun guy to coach. Very fun. Can call any play. He can run any play. Upbeat. Powerful vibe around him. People just like him. They want to be around him. Loves the game. I really, really like this kid.''

Gruden's evaluations mean nothing to me. Absolutely nothing. He loves nearly every player he talks about. He's gushing about Manuel here and it means nothing to me.

Regarding Nassib and Manuel: "You want Nassib and Manuel on your team. You want to be around Nassib and Manuel. If you like those guys, you're on the right track."

Considering Gruden likes to collect quarterbacks he probably would draft both Manuel and Nassib, but no, you don't want them both on your team.

As the smoke begins to clear for the 2013 draft, this is obvious: No one loves the top of it. No one. When you talk to league people, you hear over and over about how this is a middle-class draft, with an egalitarian class from the teens until the middle of the second round, and no real can't-miss stars at the top.

I think some of the offensive linemen are "can't-miss" prospects, but drafting offensive linemen is absolutely no fun I guess. If Chance Warmack busts in the NFL I am going to be very, very, very surprised. At his absolute worst, he will be an above average NFL guard...at least in my opinion.

A history lesson, then, this morning. This draft is mindful of the 2008 draft, which, in retrospect, had a significantly better second 10 than top 10.

Let's judge the top 10 versus the second 10:

Premier players: In the top 10, there are two, Ryan and Mayo. In the second 10, I'd say there are three: Clady, Albert (a slight stretch, though a top-12 left tackle in this game today has to be considered premier) and Flacco. Jake Long would have been, had injuries not derailed his career. He still may be one, but he'll have to be sturdier in his new address, St. Louis.

I'm going to hold off on arguing Joe Flacco is a premier player for a while. I will silently fume to myself because I may be wrong in still thinking he is not.

Better than average players: Five in the top 10 -- Jake Long, Chris Long, Ryan, McFadden (marginally, because of his injuries) and Mayo. And I would say eight in the second 10 -- McKelvin, Clady, Stewart (4.7 yards per carry in a job-sharing career with DeAngelo Williams), Albert, Rodgers-Cromartie, Cherilus, Flacco and Talib.

And to add to this, in the defense of Jeff Otah, he was a good right tackle who just couldn't stay healthy and probably didn't like the game enough to stay healthy. In terms of playing the game, he was pretty good. So the 11-20 spots of the 2008 draft were pretty damn good.

Busts: Gholston, Harvey and Rivers in the top 10, only Williams and Otah in the second 10.

But again, Otah would not have been a bust if he wasn't injured a lot and loved the game enough to fight through injuries. He had talent, but was a bust in the end I guess.

Think of this draft. Who would be all that surprised if Jarvis Jones, Tavon Austin, Alec Ogletree, Xavier Rhodes, Desmond Trufant and Bjoern Werner go in the second 10 ... and outplay their peers in the top 10?

Well, I wouldn't be surprised because teams tend to reach for quarterbacks and I think Jones and Werner should go in the Top 10 picks based solely on talent alone. So if they fall to the 11-20 spots then I wouldn't be surprised to see them outplay some of the players in picks 1-10.

Raider fans: You want the good news or the bad news?

Haven't they suffered enough? Just go with the good.

The bad: Oakland is missing two of its top five picks in this year's draft (the second- and fifth-rounders), leaving the team with just one choice in the top 65, and will have about $75 million to spend on the salary cap this year, a league low. That's because of approximately $48 million in dead money from the normal $123 million cap each team has.

Ouch. I don't have the heart to even slip a Terrelle Pryor joke in here.

The good: In 2014, Oakland will be in the best cap shape of any team -- or very close to it -- because GM Reggie McKenzie took his cap medicine in his first two years on the job. The Raiders will have approximately $50 million to spend in free agency and to extend the contracts of good players on their roster next year.

So after they extend the contracts of the good players on the roster what are they going to do with the other $49.5 million?

What's that you say Raiders fans? Your favorite team hasn't gone 1-15 or 2-14 over the last decade? Shut up, I'm trying to be a bully.

Think about an NFL team having $75 million to spend on players in a year. 

Because I'm a cautious man, this sounds like a disaster-in-waiting to me. Too much money to spend is a bad thing sometimes for an NFL team.

"Yes, and we've talked about that,'' McKenzie said. "Remember -- the way I was raised in football, in Green Bay, was not as a big spender in free agency. I hope we continue to draft well, and I hope we can sign our own players, because that's the way I believe you win in this league. You draft, develop and sign your own players. Mark is on board with that, and what we have to do now and in the future, he's on board with and understands and he supports.''

Al Davis says only winning makes him understand and support the long-term plan for the Raiders. The only long-term plan is to be successful and win games. This is also the short-term plan.

The level of incompetence in the draft room by the Raiders is stunning. Over the past nine years they're the only team to not draft a Pro Bowl player in the first round. The year-by-year futility in drafting:

Let's spare our eyes and just say Darren McFadden is the only first round draft pick on the roster today and they haven't had a first round pick in the last two years. This year they have the #3 overall pick and I feel like Al Davis would have taken Tavon Austin in that spot.

Then Peter says really nice things about Jack Pardee, including this nugget/factoid that Peter could certainly learn from:

One other story: The Oilers were playing a preseason game one August Saturday evening in San Diego, and after the game, Pardee stuck around the stadium to tape his coach's show. His PR man, Chip Namias, and PR lieutenant, Dave Pearson, drove Pardee back to the hotel in a rental car. Pardee still was in his coaches' clothing for the show -- coaches' shorts and a polo shirt. On the way back to the hotel, he asked to stop at a Ralph's, a grocery store chain, so he could get some beer. They went into Ralph's, Pardee got two six-packs, and they went to pay. Only one checkout stand was open. So they waited. And waited. An NFL coach, in his coaches clothing, patiently waiting with his two six-packs 10, 15 minutes for the long line to go down, and not complaining.

Peter could learn some patience from Jack Pardee. I am sure Peter would stretch this story into a five paragraph complaint about the grocery store only having one lane open. I find it funny that Peter thinks it is amazing for an NFL coach to wait in a long line at the grocery store (which is what millions of people deal with on a regular basis), as if Pardee is above having to wait in lines with normal people. It tells me a lot about Peter that he is impressed by this story and it also lets me know that Peter probably does believe himself to be WAY too important to be inconvenienced by the normal everyday issues with which other people have to deal. Peter is an NFL writer. How dare he have to wait in line!

We hadn't heard much about the son of Gregg Williams, Blake Williams, since his dismissal by Jeff Fisher as Rams linebacker coach and defensive playcaller after the season -- until last week. NCAA Division II team William Jewell College of Missouri hired Blake Williams as defensive consultant and presumptive playcaller. Quite a precipitous fall.

Right, but remember that time Blake Williams was calling out the defensive calls so strongly in training camp last year? That...that...that was pretty neat for Peter to hear.

Mr. Starwood Preferred Member Travel Note of the Week

I just have to travel more. Two notes for you, not necessarily what you're used to reading as travel notes.

We are mostly used to reading about bitching and whining from Peter about how he has to wait in line or is inconvenienced by the lack of quality coffee available at a hotel...so there's really nothing we are used to reading as a travel note.

Two: Maybe wearing gym shorts and an old hoodie, with an open paper cup of coffee, and a dog laying at my feet, isn't the proper way to wait for one's wife outside a Food Emporium grocery store on the east side of Manhattan. There I was over the weekend, while my wife did a little shopping inside, and a guy walked out of the store toward me and fished out two quarters. "Here you go,'' he said.

That's fantastic. Peter must have been very offended he was mistaken for a homeless man by this guy walking out of the store. I'm surprised Peter didn't punch the guy in the face for daring to believe Peter was anything but NFL royalty. I'm guessing next time Peter is in public he will just wear a shirt that says, "I'm important and work for Sports Illustrated and NBC Sports. I have plenty of money, thank you." Sure, it is a long sign, but it would get the point across and not allow anything to think Peter is a disgusting, horrible, middle-class person who needs money.

I said, "No, no, no, I'm good. But thanks.''

Yeah, right. You know Peter kept this money. He probably thinks it is about time the general public started paying him directly for the delicious nuggets of football-related goodness he provides on a weekly basis.

Ten Things I Think I Think

2. I think the meaning of Terrell Owens, who turns 40 this year, catching passes from Tom Brady in a Los Angeles workout is this: Owens wants to continue his NFL career. Brady wants to have receivers catch balls from him when he works out. That is all. Not saying it's impossible that T.O. will end up in someone's camp, but I highly doubt it, and I highly, highly doubt it will be New England's.

What? So you are telling me there is a free agent who Peter doesn't think the Patriots would have interest in this offseason? I'm shocked.

3. I think around this time of year, everyone has an opinion, and for an analyst like Pro Football Weekly's Nolan Nawrocki to be highly critical of Geno Smith ("Not a student of the game, not committed or focused") is not surprising. Understand one thing: People like Nawrocki are not making this up. NFL scouts talk to people studying the draft, and they have opinions, and they understand that the analysts are going to put the opinions in their own words. Now, is Smith a bad student, or not focused? Not from what I have heard. But I probably haven't spoken to the same people Nawrocki has.

The question people are asking isn't whether Nolan Nawrocki has been making these evaluations up or not, but the question is if Nawrocki is only speaking and quoting those who have negative things to say about Geno Smith. It is just that the buzz surrounding Smith from other experts isn't that he has commitment or focus problems, so other draft experts are wondering how Nawrocki came to a different conclusion in his analysis of Smith. I think we all realize these experts talk to different people, but how can the conclusion Nawrocki reached be so different from what other draft experts perceive? So then the question goes back to Nawrocki's prior analysis of draft-eligible quarterbacks and whether that analysis is accurate now.

Do you think GM Buddy Nix is taking shortcuts on the eighth pick in the draft, and do you think coach Doug Marrone would take Smith, upon whose shoulders his future as an NFL head coach will depend, without doing full due diligence?

No, nobody thinks this. These draft experts don't all have to reach the same conclusion, but yet again, Nawrocki reaches a very different conclusion from other draft experts. It has become a sort of trend.

Who has succeeded more in the past few drafts? Atlanta GM Thomas Dimitroff made a risky move to deal for Julio Jones, which looks smart now. I didn't like Indy GM Ryan Grigson at the time for taking a second straight tight end in the 2012 draft, but Dwayne Allen turned out to be one of the best rookies in the league last year. Seattle GM John Schneider took Russell Wilson 75th overall last year, and everyone said he reached for the diminutive Wilson. Some reach. My point: Dimitroff, Grigson and Schneider aren't biting their nails because Nolan Nawrocki questions a player they like.

Leave it to Peter to miss the entire damn point of the whole discussion about Nolan Nawrocki's evaluation of Geno Smith. No one is afraid an NFL team will listen to Nawrock's analysis and blindly not choose Smith based entirely on what Nawrocki says. The concern is that Nawrocki has reached a very different conclusion about a black quarterback and this isn't the first time this has happened. THAT is the entire discussion being had about Nawrocki's evaluation of Geno Smith. The discussion has nothing to do with NFL teams and what they do/don't believe, but has everything to do with Nawrocki destroying another black quarterback in his evaluation prior to the NFL Draft.

7. I think Charles Woodson is right. He said the other day he's not been signed in free agency because teams think he's too old. What gave it away? The fact you're 36?

Says the guy who seems to completely misunderstand the criticism of Nolan Nawrocki's evaluation of Geno Smith.

9. I think (making an exception on my football thoughts of the week to include the loss of a great critic, Roger Ebert)

There's a section in Peter's "Ten Things I Think I Think" for what Peter calls his "non-football thoughts of the week." Wouldn't a thought about a movie critic be a natural entry into "non-football thoughts"? I guess not. So can we now expect "non-football thoughts of the week" and "non-football related non-football thoughts of the week" in MMQB? Between the three pages of Peter's thoughts, his Tweets of the Week, Quotes of the Week, and Travel Note, pretty soon I think MMQB is going to be 10 pages long and the only information about the NFL is going to be one chart on how well the Falcons have drafted over the last five years, along with a picture of Peter eating lunch with Roger Goodell.

g. The meaning, it seems to me, is that Roger Ebert was his profession's Troy Brown. Mr. Versatile, getting the job done in many different media.

I would be shocked if Roger Ebert didn't directly resemble a New England Patriots player. They are the only team who has players who can be directly comparable to a movie critic. I didn't think Troy Brown would be the Patriot that Peter would compare Ebert to though...

What about Wes Welker? He's always reliable and always there when you need him to be there for some help. You really dropped the ball on this comparison, Peter (like Welker started doing over the last year or two). You are the "Two and a Half Men" of your profession. No one is entirely sure how you have so many fans, but it seems like you take every chance you can to remind us and rub it in our face how well-thought of you are.

i. Jose Iglesias, 2012: eight hits, 68 at-bats. Jose Iglesias, 2013: nine hits, 16 at-bats.

It's almost like players mature and improve between October and April. That can't be true though, can it?

j. Rest in peace, Matthew Warren. The 27-year-old son of pastor Rick Warren suffered from depression. So sad.

Yes, Matthew Warren was so sad. Why do you have to be dick and mock his depressive condition?

l. Get wise, in a hurry, legislators standing in the way of real gun reform.

Get wise, and do what Peter tells you to do. Only the unwise don't listen to Peter on political matters. Peter is the Angelina Jolie of his profession. He's always willing to give his opinion and no one asked for it.

r. Happy opening day, Fenway.

Fenway Park, an inanimate object which has no feelings or way to communicate with anyone or anything, thanks you.

u. I'm a little late for Mad Men. Five years, to be exact. But it feels like a show I should catch up on.

And when you do, don't tell us about how you caught up or comment on the show. Thanks.

The Adieu Haiku

A key draft nugget:
Syracuse passer's name is
NASS-ib, not na-SEEB.

Who cares how Nassib's name is pronounced? All I want to know is if Peter finds Nassib to be cute.