Bill Simmons Hates Being Wrong, Except About Greg Oden So He Hopes He is Wrong, Which He May Be, But This Column Is Wrong

I could post every single minute of every single day, given the opportunity for more Simmons material, so let's just dive in.

Wrong?

First impressions matter more in basketball than in any other sport, and they can be savored only in person. Players can't hide behind pads or helmets, so we can stare at them, evaluate every move they make: running, jumping, walking, even ogling the cheerleaders. We can see every ripple and tattoo. If they're lazy, we can tell. If they have a lousy attitude, we can tell. If their teammates dislike them, we can tell. It's the most naked sport, if that makes sense.

It doesn't, because it is moderately incorrect. Let me list the other sports where every move the athlete makes can be evaluated and every single little thing Bill said is exclusive to basketball can be viewed.

Baseball
Tennis
Soccer
Water Polo
Swimming
Track and Field
Softball
T-ball
Golf

I am bored with this already, but you get my point. I would actually vote tennis, which I know Bill hates, as the most naked sports considering they are usually wearing as much clothing as a basketball player but are not involved in a team sport, so any mistake they make puts the focus on them individually.

I think first impressions are even more important in football sometimes than basketball as well. The NFL has this thing called the Combine, where they make players do drills in shorts and shirts to see them "naked" as Bill says. Then the players get graded and no matter what the statistics they put up in college look like, if those viewing the football players don't like at all what they see when the player wears shorts and a shirt, that player will usually not be drafted as high as the other players who perform the drills better. It is a completely unscientific process that is mocked frequently as a measure for which players to draft. Maybe they should just use "Simmons-vision" where they look at the players 3 years into their career and talk about all the things they saw/right wrong with the player three years before. You will see Simmons-Vision in action now:

I remember watching young David Robinson stroll out of the tunnel at the Boston Garden as everyone made the same sound: "Whoa."

I am sure this happened. Young David Robinson, who was 24 at the time he debuted in the NBA which is a solid 4 years older than Greg Oden is right now, made the entire crowd at Boston Garden say, "whoa." I have no proof this did not happen, but I wish I did. Simmonsologists know Bill just makes shit up when he doesn't have any actual proof so he can prove a point.

Young Hakeem possessed so much raw athletic ability, he could barely harness it; watching him play hoops was like watching a 15-year-old driving a Formula One race car.

Incredibly poor analogy. Maybe you should have just referenced a movie on this one. "Young Hakeem possessed so much raw athletic ability, he could barely harness it; he was like Michael J. Fox in 'Teen Wolf' all over the court but not having a clue what he was doing...plus he had less body hair."

That would work. Now I know why he uses movie analogies all the time. His real analogies are horrible. Actually he may not know what an analogy is.

Oh, and Young Hakeem was 21 when he entered the NBA, and Greg Oden is 20. Again, go easy on him.

I caught Ewing as a rookie and remember nothing.

Obviously Bill is the ultimate test for this. He can spot good players just by the way they walk. Whatever happened to Patrick Ewing anyway? He didn't do anything in the NBA. Where is he flipping burgers again?

Please remember Milwaukee, you dodged a huge fucking bullet by not having him become your General Manager. Bill would base all of his decisions how that player walked and whether he gave his teammates high fives or not. Mark Madsen would have been the model for the prototype Simmons player.

Same for Yao, Sampson and Zo.

Does Bill ever realize that he is not the only one in the world who has seen these players play? I saw Alonzo Mourning play basketball quite frequently. On Bill's "Whelm" scale (we will focus on this in a minute) I was overwhelmed at his ability to block shots and control the low post. Especially considering he was all of 6 foot 10 inches with shoes on. Mourning could hit a jump shit, free throws, and play defense. I saw him play many, many times, so I am going to go ahead and say Bill is full of shit and is stupid for saying he remembered nothing about Zo when he saw him. Zo was not on the scale of Shaq but when you watched him play you were usually impressed with him.

So I couldn't wait to attend a Clippers-Blazers preseason game a few weeks ago. I needed my first impression of Greg Oden.

Someone please tell me if there is ever a worse arena to evaluate a player coming off a major injury than in a completely useless preseason game where players are trying to not get hurt and are learning how to play with their teammates. Maybe a pick up game would be worse. Maybe. At least then they would be trying to play. You can not judge how good a player is going to be on preseason games. Unless you are Bill Simmons, in which case preseason is all you need. That and a "Whelm Scale."

I needed to fit him on my Whelm Scale. He ended up landing "under."

There is the Whelm Scale. It sounds like a German made device that would measure the heaviness of an object. What was Greg Oden, coming off of major surgery, supposed to do that would have impressed Bill Simmons? Should he have gone all out 110% every time and tire himself out within three minutes in the game? He is a center, they don't always run full speed in the regular season because it is tiring to run so much and be tall. How many times have we seen David Robinson, Ewing, or Hakeem dunk the ball on a fast break as the trailing player on the play? I remember seeing several highlights of this. They were the trailing player because they did not always run full speed every time down.

Doesn't someone at ESPN feel like pointing out to Bill he is evaluating a player in a preseason game?

Oden ran with— there's no other way to say it—a noticeable limp.

Probably because there is no other way to say it--he was coming off major surgery and was not confident enough to run at full speed all the time quite yet.

Physically, he didn't seem any more intimidating than his teammate LaMarcus Aldridge. Everything about his body language said, "I'm not healthy or confident in my body yet."

I am not saying Greg Oden is going to be an All Star or even play in the NBA again, but he is a 20 year old kid who had major surgery on his ankle, was reportedly 30 pounds over his playing weight in college, and was playing in a preseason game. He probably was not healthy or confident yet.

Bill is not going to be right that Greg Oden walks too old be a franchise center until Oden actually plays a full year in the league. It doesn't matter how he walks, it matters what numbers he puts up when healthy, and if he is never healthy, then Bill will be pseudo-correct. Besides the Blazers don't need him to be the best center in the league, they need him to play great defense.

Sure, he could dunk in traffic, challenge a few shots, sink an ugly jump hook or two. But everything came in quick bursts. His game lacked a certain fluidity that great centers usually have.

What the hell is he talking about? I thought making plays in bursts was a good thing? Also, he was injured all of last year, maybe he only has energy right now in short bursts, so as soon as he gets back in good physical shape, the bursts will become longer and longer. Then the magical fluidity that is needed as prescribed by non-GM Bill Simmons will be there.

I just know what I saw, and here's what I saw: a 20-year-old guy who walked and ran like he was 35. Of course, you could have said the same about him in Columbus, but back then, at least he would randomly unleash an occasional superfreak moment: a hellacious dunk, a Russell-like block, whatever. Not anymore.

I wonder if what Bill saw in college from Greg Oden "randomly," could be described as bursts of dunks and blocks? If so, then he is the exact same guy now he was then. I am not saying Greg Oden is ever going to be any good, I am saying the way Bill deduces this, basing it on observations in the preseason and looking at the way he walks, is an extraordinarily crappy way to come to this conclusion.

The league needs him.

Remember last week when Bill wrote the NBA had its curves back? Now the league needs Greg Oden and why?

He could be a wonderful, thoughtful personality along the lines of Bill Bradley, Kevin McHale, Charles Barkley, Magic Johnson and Bill Walton—an original, someone who defies every unfair stereotype of NBA players.

He does have a wonderful personality and I would agree the league needs that. Though I would argue these five players do not defie the stereotype of modern NBA players. Hang with me on this:

the stereotype of modern NBA players is they don't care how they look to others, get in trouble with the law, are focused on being thugs, sleep with dozens of women, are African American or foreigners, if they are not African American are incredibly un-athletic and goofy, and tend to be lazy. These five athletes Bill lists do not completely fit the profile of the modern NBA player and were all great players and humans, but they each had a widely known component to their game/life that fit perfectly into the stereotype.

Bill Bradley- he is not modern so doesn't really fit.

Kevin McHale- incredibly goofy and un-athletic and Larry Bird continously got on his case because he thought McHale was lazy and could do so much more with his skill set.

Charles Barkley- intelligent and thoughtful, but also has a gambling problem, in no way wants to be a role model, spit on a child and threw a man threw a window at a bar. Also, he was called the Round Mound of Rebound because he was fat and seen as lazy in college. One of the greatest players ever also.

Magic Johnson- I feel horrible saying it, but he did get a life threatening virus because he slept with dozens of women...unless there is some blood transfusion issue I have never heard about. Great businessman, even better point guard, but when NBA athletes are accused stereotypically of sleeping around with random women, you can't name the player who opened the eyes of the entire United States to the AIDS epidemic as not fitting a stereotype of this.

Bill Walton- beyond goofy...and also a dirty smelly hippie.

Oden told Portland GM Kevin Pritchard, "I'm sorry, I'm sorry," after finding out he needed knee surgery. He played piano for JT at the ESPYs. He messes with reporters during interviews by seeing how many questions he can answer in a monotone. He's such a nice person, I guarantee he will never throw a punch in a game.

Now these are acceptable reasons for why he will never be a great center! Great centers generally require a certain chip on their shoulder about protecting the lane and playing physical basketball. The fact Oden is so sensitive and withdrawn at times, and the fact he plays like this sometimes, is a reason he may not succeed in the NBA.

When The Oregonian's Jason Quick casually mentioned to Oden that he'd been a little underwhelmed by his preseason, Oden took it so personally that Quick cringed for the rest of the conversation. Oden never yelled at Quick nor defended himself, but his feelings were genuinely hurt.

How is Bill missing this to use as a reason Oden will not be a great center? What if the coach has the same type of criticism for Oden and Oden gets his feelings hurt in the middle of a game? That will probably affect his play at the center position. Centers are going to be dunked on, foul out of a game, and miss a block that they need to get to. They also have to get over it quickly, I would say all of the great centers in the NBA had good self confidence, which Oden may lack. THAT is a reason Oden may not be a great center, not the fucking way he walks.

I can't remember a more fascinating big guy. Shaq was contrived. Robinson was a saint. Ewing was forced. Hakeem was bland. Kareem was a ninny. Wilt was self-absorbed. Russell was angry and defiant.

Apparently Bill has forgotten that Hakeem was like a 15 year old trying to drive a Formula One car and that David Robinson caused the entire Boston Garden to say, "woah." Or he could just be making this shit up because he has to prove that Greg Oden is the most fascinating big guy he could remember.

Do those readers who really enjoy reading Bill Simmons just take every single word he says as gospel and not look into his blanket statements? How is being contrived or angry and defiant not fascinating? How can Bill talk up David Robinson and Hakeem Olajuwon saying they were greats, unlike Greg Oden, and then whenever he needs to crap all over them saying they were not fascinating players?

Unfortunately, he has rarely seemed like a franchise center in anything more than hype.

He has played a total of one game in the NBA. For a total of like 8 minutes. That's like saying Tom Brady was going to have a crappy year based on his one quarter of action.

I was concerned during his Ohio State season, when everyone kept making excuses for him despite mounting evidence that THE NEXT GREAT CENTER GREG ODEN just couldn't dominate night to night.

Where was this mounting evidence found? When his only year in college he helped lead his team to the National Championship game or was it when the fact he was a freshman in college and somehow managed to be somewhat consistent through the whole year. This is where Bill's complete lack of understanding about college basketball shows. The word "freshman" should also mean "completely inconsistent." Just like Durant had bad shooting nights, Jason Williams (the Duke one) was named Ason Williams by UNC fans because he had no "J," or the fact Kevin Love tended to disappear for stretches last year...this is something freshmen do. They just got to college and now are playing against a higher level of competition, when you combine that with distractions of partying and class, freshman college basketball players don't have a great consistency track record.

Oden is a center, and centers generally take longer to develop into great ball players, especially when they are only 20.

I was concerned after watching him walk down a hallway after the 2007 ESPYs, when he reminded me of Fred Sanford. I was concerned after the sudden announcement that he needed major surgery.

For a massive knee injury that occurred to him, not because of a bad back. You try having knee surgery and then rehabbing in a year when you are 290 pounds. It is ironic that Bill spent an entire early summer of 2007 pining for Greg Oden or Kevin Durant and now he is still in love with one player and completely written off the other player after watching this player walk.

So it makes sense that Hakeem played nearly 800 more games than Walton did. Watch them running on NBA TV, and it will still be no surprise.

If Bill were an NBA scout, he would prefer the player parade up and down a runway like they were model, then he would ask that they sprint and he would set up his expectations based on his Whelm Scale and just see what he thought about them. He would make a great GM if you were looking for inexplicable arbitrary reasons to base your entire player selection model upon.

I would've bet my life that Hakeem was going to become a great player, barring injury, in 1984.

First off, Bill was 15 years old. I doubt he would have bet his life on this when he was 15 years old. I also love the "barring injury" part of that. Bill is basing his entire conclusion of Greg Oden not being the next great center on the fact he is always injured and walks like an old man, as if this is some type of inherent flaw where injury will naturally occur because he walks funny. While Hakeem would be great as long as he did not get injured, but because he ran like a gazelle this was not an inherent flaw in Hakeem and an injury would be a freak thing. I wish someone would read his Bill's columns at ESPN and make him edit out the egotistical and hypocritical parts. Of course, then there would be no column and he would write a letter to The Big Lead whining like a five year old who got candy taken away that ESPN was censoring him.

Also, barring injury, anyone has an opportunity to be a great player.

We know he's a wonderful person, and a skilled player, but it remains unclear whether his body was meant to play basketball for a living.

From what I've seen so far, the answer is no.

He has played one game in his entire NBA career and you are basing this decision on a preseason game after he is recovering from a major knee injury. Greg Oden may never become a great NBA center but this shitty reasoning is not why.