I haven't posted an article fawning about a player's grit and hustle on this blog lately. Without David Eckstein around there is a real lack of grit in MLB. It's sad, but no one can replace the grit with which Eckstein played the game. Eckstein was a gateway drug where sportswriters wrote cliche-laden columns about how, sure, Player X isn't actually good at baseball, but he brings intangibles that can't be measured and yet they just found a way to measure them and here's how many intangibles Player X has. Fortunately, David O'Brien is around to talk about Jonny Gomes and the profound impact of leadership and grit he has brought to a Braves team that lacks talent, but apparently needs a shit-ton of non-quantifiable things that can't be measured so don't bother questioning whether the fact he can only hit lefties is worth it. Of course Fredi Gonzalez has played Gomes mostly against right-handed pitchers, but that's a different issue. Here's some fawning over intangibles, which again, can't be measured, but trust David O'Brien, Gomes has a lot of them.
When Braves left fielder Jonny Gomes ran to his position in the middle
of the second inning Monday, the Red Sox showed a highlight reel on the
center-field video board that featured fist-pumping, muscle-flexing,
helmet-flying moments from Gomes’ stint with the Red Sox, whom he helped
win the 2013 World Series.
Very inspirational. It makes me want to listen to some Kid Rock and watch all of the "The Marine" films in a row while down Budweiser cans and not giving a fuck if I get some of my tobacco juice on the carpet.
There was much energy and testosterone evident
America, FUCK YEAH!
There is just something odd about typing how much testosterone was evident when Gomes takes the field. I can't explain it. It just seems like a sort of weird thing to type out. Gomes is a perfectly serviceable player, don't get me wrong. I'm not sure he merits this type of column.
as Gomes stirred up
teammates and fans with one dramatic homer and diving catch after
another in that highlight package.
It's a highlight package. Nearly any player can have a highlight package put together and make it look like the player was homering and making diving catches on a nightly basis. I'm not dismissing Gomes' achievements with the Red Sox or anything like that, but his job is to hit the baseball while fielding well for the Braves. He hasn't quite done that. His leadership is important, I'm sure, but not worthy of the hero worship.
So many moments that it was hard to believe he only played for the Red
Sox from the start of the 2013 season until last July 31, 2014, when he
was shipped to Oakland with Jon Lester in a trade-deadline deal.
Gomes' leadership was so important to the Red Sox they felt the need to share that leadership and patriotism with the A's. Then the A's felt other MLB teams needed the opportunity to share in Gomes' energy and testosterone, so they didn't re-sign him. It's nice these teams all want to share Gomes' great energy with other MLB teams.
Gomes had that effect on Boston and Red Sox Nation, where his hustle and
blue-collar attitude were greatly appreciated, along with his overt
patriotism and front-and-center role in helping Boston sports teams and
citizens come together –
This is a real sentence that was written. I haven't changed a word. Yes, the phrases:
-"Red Sox Nation" (all caps, of course)
-"hustle and blue-collar attitude"
-"overt patriotism"
-"helping Boston sports teams and citizens come together"
all appeared in one sentence. All this sentence is missing is a reference to "grit" and how intangibles can't be measured, but Gomes' intangibles can be measured and that's how O'Brien knows he has a lot of them.
a team that already had iconic David Ortiz and Dustin Pedroia, but
quickly embraced Gomes’ fiery enthusiasm and indefatigable optimism.
Along with his right-handed power and flair for dramatic pinch-hit
homers.
This doesn't sound like anecdotal evidence. In 2013, Gomes hit two pinch-home runs. One in a 9-2 Red Sox win and one in a 2-1 Red Sox win. He hit zero pinch-hit home runs in the 2013 playoffs. In 2014, Gomes hit two pinch-hit home runs. One in an 8-5 Red Sox loss and one in a 5-4 Red Sox victory. So I'm seeing one dramatic pinch-hit home run while he was with the Red Sox, as one pinch-hit homer happened before the 7th inning. I'm not sure where the plural of it came from like there are limitless amount of dramatic pinch-hit homers Gomes hit, but it sure is fun to exaggerate a little bit when using anecdotal evidence isn't it?
Gomes, 34, hasn’t given the Braves much in the way of offense, batting
.209 with three homers in 115 plate appearances, with a .615 OPS that
would be a career low.
Ah, but who cares? It's fun to measure Gomes' contributions in terms of his actual hitting contributions until it no longer helps to prove the point of how he helps the team. At that point, just ignore Gomes is only good for hitting lefties at this point in his career and let's talk about intangibles. Those things that can't be measured, but Gomes has a lot of them. David O'Brien knows Gomes has a lot of intangibles that can't be measured because he just knows it.
But he’s hit .300 (9-for-30) against lefties, had a couple of big
pinch-hit homers and made a few diving catches, including a spectacular
one in the fourth inning Monday that robbed Pedroia of an extra-base hit
and likely prevented a run when Brock Holt followed with a single.
Now I'm confused. David O'Brien states that Gomes had a couple of big pinch-hit homers and as of the day that he wrote this fawning embarrassment of a column Gomes had three home runs on the season. Only one of them came as a pinch-hitter and it took a 5-5 game against the Blue Jays and made it a 6-5 game. Other than that, there are no other pinch-hit homers that he has hit for the Braves. So I'm not arguing semantics, but "a couple" doesn't mean one home run was hit. It means more than one home run was hit. The reason I bring this up is this goes to how O'Brien will exaggerate Gomes' contributions on the field in an effort to make Gomes seem more productive than he really is. If O'Brien will exaggerate what Gomes does on the field, wouldn't it make sense that he would exaggerate Gomes' contribution off the field too? So there is a possibility this entire column about Gomes' "unmeasurable" qualities could just be one big exaggeration? Hence, my issues with fawning columns about a player's grit and leadership skills. It could be true, but when the author plays loosely with numbers it brings into question whether he's playing loosely about the player's grit and leadership skills too.
“What he brings to the team, you can’t quantify that,” Braves shortstop
Andrelton Simmons said. “You can’t put it in numbers. You can’t explain
what it is.”
What O'Brien has put in numbers has been sort of shaky on the "truthiness" front so far. So, it's probably good the platitudes about Gomes are completely non-quantifiable.
But Simmons tried to anyway.
Because, why not? That's the kind of column O'Brien is looking to write. May as well appease him.
“He brings hustle, No. 1,” Simmons said. “He’s always playing hard,
whenever he’s in the lineup. A lot of energy. Leadership and energy,
that’s the two biggest things.
Wow, so if Gomes brought no energy and wasn't a leader, but just happened to produce and hit the ball well...what would that mean?
Even players who might have been a bit skeptical about Gomes’ ballyhooed leadership became believers after he joined the team.
By the way, who has "ballyhooed" Gomes' leadership? Sportswriters like David O'Brien. So he ballyhoos the leadership and then writes about how Gomes has ballyhooed leadership. It's sort of a story he reports on while helping to create the story.
Braves manager Fredi Gonzalez, who batted Gomes in the cleanup spot
Tuesday,
This makes me throw up. Not only is Fredi hitting Gomes against mostly right-handed pitchers, but he's also hitting Gomes cleanup.
was asked by a Boston writer on Monday if Gomes brought to the
Braves clubhouse what he brought to Boston.
“Same,” Braves manager Fredi Gonzalez.
That's not a good enough answer. Fredi will provide his motorcycling buddy Braves beat writer with a little hyperbole and cliches. No column about a gritty player is complete until there is cliches written throughout the column.
“He’s a team guy, comes in every
day with a great mind frame. Everybody that’s around him, he makes them
better. Just the way he carries himself. He cares about winning and
losing games. He goes about it the right way.
This all means very little. It's just a bunch of cliches thrown into a sentence. "A great mind frame" and "just the way he carries himself." Apparently other players don't care about winning and losing games while going about "it" the wrong way? What the fuck does all of this even mean? It's embarrassing to have these things written from a beat writer. What sort of specific information does it provide to the reader? None.
Even when he was racking up 18 homers and 86 RBIs for the 2010
Cincinnati Reds, or 18 homers with an .868 OPS for the 2012 Oakland
Athletics, or 13 homers with 52 RBIs as a platoon player and pinch
hitter for the 2013 Red Sox, his biggest impact still came in the
clubhouse, many of those who played with him have said.
Since Gomes is hitting the ball terribly during the 2015 season then I hope his biggest contributions are still coming in the clubhouse. Otherwise, he isn't helping the Braves team at all.
First baseman Freddie Freeman said in the last week of spring training,
when a reporter asked him about the team’s chances, that they believed
they could win because Gomes had made them believe it.
It's the Cult of Jonny Gomes. He's like Scientology. You aren't a believer until you meet him and then you immediately become a part of the group, isolated from your friends, and unwilling to associate with others who don't think Jonny Gomes is just the absolute greatest leader and patriot in the universe.
Gomes got a standing ovation as the highlight reel played Monday night, and he appreciated it.
Well yes, anyone appreciates it when their ego gets stroked a little bit. So of course he appreciated the highlight reel and standing ovation. I would too.
“I’ve been in a couple of organizations, and I always though that was
cool, when an opposing player comes back and you get the standing
ovation,” he said. “It’s pretty cool, and obviously these are pretty
knowledgeable fans and they appreciate the way you play the game.”
This is the type of article many sports fans hate. There are meaningless quotes from a player, cliches thrown about, and there's really no new information to be gathered. Great, Jonny Gomes likes to get a standing ovation and to be appreciated.
“I guess, maybe unfortunately for them, but I’m not here to give advice,
by any means,” Gomes replied. “Lot of good friends in that clubhouse,
even on the (coaching) staff. But I wear a different uniform now. I’m
here to put two MORE in their loss column.
Well, Gomes went 1-8 with 5 strikeouts against the Red Sox, so he wasn't really there to do much of anything except help try and help the Red Sox put MORE in their win column. I know I'm being hard on Gomes, but fluff pieces draw my ire.
The tension level in the Red Sox clubhouse has risen as their slump has
deepened, and another writer asked Gomes, only half-seriously, if he had
any plans to stop by and chat with his old teammates, maybe help with
some quick team-bonding like the old days.
Get these Red Sox players acclimated to the Cult of Jonny Gomes. Just one visit to the clubhouse and he can fix any chemistry problems that team may have. It works that quickly.
“I’m with another team now, the Braves,” Gomes said. “I bring my tools over to the Braves.
I'm being mean, so I'll hold off on making a comment about Gomes' "tools." He has 50 more at-bats against right-handers versus left-handers and that's not how he is going to have success with the Braves. Gomes' tools, unlike his energy and patriotism, only last as far as his playing ability will take him. So far, these tools take him in the direction of hitting the ball well against left-handed pitchers. But you can't put a price on his intangibles, which are those unmeasurable items that can't be measured, yet David O'Brien knows Gomes has a lot of them. These intangibles are probably deeply tied to Gomes' patriotism, which is important for a baseball player to have...as long as that baseball player is American of course.
They’re in a tough spot, but at the end of the day, they’re two series
away from first (place). I don’t know how much panic’s going on over
there. But I know we’re 3 ½ back over here, and I’m excited to be here.”
Yes, excitement. The exact opposite feeling I got when I read this fluff piece from David O'Brien. If he can't find anything interesting to write, just don't do a fluff piece. That's pretty much all I ask. I get tired of reading about how a player provides value beyond the baseball field, all while that player's contributions on the field are glossed over in favor of cliches and talk about intangibles that NO ONE can measure, yet the author seems to know how to do exactly that.
Showing posts with label Dave O'Brien. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Dave O'Brien. Show all posts
Thursday, July 16, 2015
Tuesday, April 19, 2011
7 comments Why Is Jason Heyward Getting More At-Bats a Bad Thing?
There is a sort-of-but-not-really mini crisis going on in Atlanta right now. Jason Heyward is batting sixth in the Braves lineup on a consistent basis. I don't think it is necessarily Heyward hitting sixth that bothers some people, it is Nate McLouth hitting second instead of Heyward. McLouth has been pretty bad for the Braves since coming over from the Pirates. Now, the mini-crisis may be over or it may not be. Gonzalez refuses to say whether batting Heyward second in the lineup is permanent or not.
I will assume Fredi Gonzalez intends on sticking with this lineup, quite possibly until the day Jason Heyward leaves Atlanta to sign with the Yankees as a free agent in early 2017 (I think that's the date on my calendar this will happen). Anyway, Fredi Gonzalez wants us to know he isn't backing down on this and doesn't care if he has to use fuzzy logic to defend the move.
It doesn’t sound as if Braves manager Fredi Gonzalez is planning significant changes to his lineup. So don’t expect to see Jason Heyward batting second anytime soon.
Actually, Heyward did bat sixth a few days after this was written, but it isn't permanent and then Heyward was back in the 2-hole the day after that. It was just a tease. If it wasn't a small sample size, I would mention Heyward went 2-8 with a home run in the two games where he hit second. It is a small sample size of course, so I won't mention that, but as terrible as that is, it is still better than McLouth.
Plenty of fans and baseball analysts have opined that Gonzalez should move slugger and on-base-percentage machine Heyward up from his current sixth slot.
I have a very simple reason for saying this should happen. Jason Heyward should get as many at-bats as possible during the season. He gets on-base and the best place for him is second in the lineup because Jones, Uggla and McCann should be in the 3rd/4th/5th spots of the lineup. It's pretty simple. It's not about "protecting" anyone, but simply getting Heyward more at-bats.
The No. 2 position – Nate McLouth’s current spot — is a preferred destination of many critics.
Fangraphs has an article that basically says, "Having McLouth hit second isn't costing the Braves THAT many runs if you project McLouth's season optimistically" as the reasoning for Braves fans not worrying. I'm not going to get into the statistics of it, partially because I haven't looked into ZIPS very much in evaluating a player, but I will say I wouldn't go with the optimistic valuation of McLouth.
The two other reasons from this article about not worrying trouble me as well if I were a Braves fan:
1. Dave Cameron, the author, basically saying that it is a smart move based on ZIPS given McLouth's career statistics. Normally, I wouldn't have a problem with this, but McLouth has been awful over the past two seasons in Atlanta, so thinking he will hit his career averages, when he hasn't indicated he is capable of this is too optimistic for me.
McLouth has a career line in Pittsburgh of .261/.339.462.
McLouth has a career line in Atlanta of .227/.327/.370.
That's as of April 18th. So he has been bad in Atlanta and has been especially awful in 2010 and the first part of 2011, so even his average hitting during 2009 skews these numbers a bit.
2. The second reason he says Braves fans shouldn't worry is...and I will quote him exactly:
But if McLouth is going to hit like a middle infielder for the rest of 2011, odds are pretty good he’s not going to hit second all year. Gonzalez is not a stupid person, and he’s not going to keep an underperforming McLouth hitting at the top of the order all season. If the pessimistic assessment of his abilities is true, the difference in performance will be larger, but the length of time that this experiment lasts will be shorter.
So basically if McLouth keeps hitting like he has been then Fredi Gonzalez will eventually move him out of the second spot in the lineup. So basically don't worry Braves fans because your manager can't be stupid and keep McLouth in the second spot all year, even though the circumstantial evidence McLouth would hit better than Heyward at the beginning of the year wasn't compelling to anyone with eyes and Gonzalez still handed the second spot in the order to McLouth.
Besides, Gonzalez wants a second hitter that is fast and can bunt really well. I'm not kidding. That's his criteria for why McLouth is qualified for the job.
So I acknowledge Fan Graphs says not to worry, but what should worry the world in general is Gonzalez's entire logic behind the move. I say it should worry the world because one year it is a single manager using logic like this, the next year we see Josh Hamilton batting 7th in an attempt to protect Mike Napoli at the bottom of the Texas Rangers batting order.
“Yeah,” he said. “When you make out the lineup, the lineup is a function of the entire lineup – eight guys, not just one guy.
Which is why the entire logic of putting Heyward in the sixth spot to protect Dan Uggla and ensuring there is a rightie/leftie lineup all through the order doesn't make sense. We know the lineup is a function of the entire lineup, which is why batting your second best hitter sixth in the batting order doesn't necessarily make sense. In the function of the entire lineup, the second place hitter needs to be on-base for the other hitters in the lineup and using him to protect one other batter in a spot where he can be on-base for lesser hitters (namely Alex Gonzalez/Freddie Freeman) doesn't seem smart.
Statisticians, numbers crunchers and my SABR [Society for American Baseball Research] people – I’m a member – they shoot holes in that stuff.
Simply because you are a member doesn't mean all your decisions are SABR-approved.
But you’re dealing with humans in the way the lineup is constructed.
What? I thought these players were all robots?
Robots or humans, I think your best hitters need to get the most at-bats possible in the spot in the order where his value is optimized. I don't see how that is the sixth spot for Heyward.
“Yeah, you put this guy in the No. 2 hole, but what are you going to do to the 6-hole?
Put a player in there too? I don't see how the concern over what to do with the 6-hole means a lesser player (and more ill-fitted player) has to hit in the 2-hole. Did I miss memo where the sixth spot in the order was pronounced the most important spot in a batting order? Again, you want your best hitters getting the most at-bats at the best possible spot for them in the order. You want your best hitters to have guys to drive in as well. Nate McLouth's two biggest qualifications to bat in the second spot so far have been:
He isn't hitting well.
He can bunt.
He has "speed," which he utilize by running back to the dugout quickly after contributing nothing to the Braves team in the 2-hole.
What are you going to do to [No. 5 hitter Dan] Uggla when he’s hitting good?”
Watch him drive in more runs because there are more runners on-base? I thought the lineup was a function of the entire lineup and not just about one player. It seems Heyward hitting sixth is derived out of the primary function of making sure Dan Uggla has protection behind him. If Nate McLouth is good enough to hit in front of Chipper Jones, then why isn't he good enough to hit behind Dan Uggla?
It is some form of backward logic Gonzalez is using. Rather than worrying about the middle of the order having runners to bat in, he is worried the middle of the order has enough "protection," so they have a chance to get good pitches to hit, while forgetting he is burying one of his best players in the sixth spot. It doesn't matter if the middle of the order has "protection" or good pitches to hit if there aren't guys on-base to drive in. After saying the batting order is not about one player, Gonzalez has designed his entire batting order around two players, Nate McLouth and Dan Uggla. That doesn't make sense.
Gonzalez believes his current lineup is balanced, and that that balances, along with the alternating left-handed/right-handed situation up and down the order, will cause difficulties for opposing managers when most of the Braves are hitting well.
It's not balanced because a guy who got on-base at a .393 clip as a rookie is hitting sixth in the lineup for a guy who has a career high OBP of .356 and an OBP in 2010 of .298. His best hitters aren't getting the most at-bats in the spot of the order that maximizes their value.
“Like the situation [Tuesday], when McLouth bunts [Martin] Prado over to third,” he said. “Now are you are going to play the infield in?
This comment explains my entire problem perfectly. McLouth BUNTS Prado over to third base. Who wants a guy like Heyward who can actually get on-base without bunting when you can give away an out and bunt?
Are you going to pitch to Chipper or pitch to [No. 4 hitter Brian] McCann? That kind of stuff.
(Announcer #1) "What a move by Gonzalez! He has had McLouth bunt and now Martin Prado is at third-base. ARE THE CARDINALS GOING TO MOVE THE INFIELD IN OR NOT! YOUR MOVE LARUSSA!"
(Announcer #2) "I don't understand what's happening. It is the first inning. Why would the infield be drawn in?"
(Announcer #1) "You just don't get it. It's all part of the lineup function of the Braves. Are the Cardinals going to pitch to Chipper or McCann? Or will LaRussa just decide to walk those two guys and load the bases?"
(Announcer #2) "Don't we have that question anyway? First base is still open if the second hitter gets an out, so the Cardinals would still have to make this decision on how to pitch to Jones and McCann. It may have made more sense to put Heyward in the second spot and then hope he gets a base-hit or gets on-base, thereby having Jones and McCann up with zero outs."
(Announcer #1 spitting on Announcer #2) "Then who the hell would protect Dan Uggla?"
(Announcer #2) "What does Uggla have to do with this? I thought we were talking about the situation LaRussa was in about whether to pitch to Jones and McCann."
(Announcer #1 flashes his SABR card at Announcer #2) "I am a member, so I know what I am talking about. If Heyward is in the second spot then how the hell is Uggla supposed to be protected?"
(Announcer #2 screaming) "What does Dan Uggla have to do with the situation LaRussa is in right now? He isn't up for two more batters."
(Announcer #1) "But now LaRussa has to decide whether to pitch to Jones and McCann. What a move by Fredi Gonzalez. I have an erection."
(Announcer #2) "Of course he is going to pitch to them. It's the first inning. I am so confused as to what decision has to be made by Tony LaRussa. Potentially, if Jason Heyward were in the second spot then the Braves would have runners on first and third right now with zero outs. The point of an offense is to score runs."
(Announcer #1) "Actually, a lineup's purpose is to be functional. Yeah, Heyward could hit second, but then LaRussa wouldn't have to make a decision on whether to pitch to Jones or McCann because he would obviously pitch to them and that doesn't make it a functional lineup. It's all about a functional lineup."
(Announcer #2 sits in silence very confused)
(Announcer #1) "Tough break for the Braves as Jones walked and then McCann and Uggla struck out. Braves can't get a run across. The good news is Jason Heyward leads off the next inning for the Braves."
As far as Prado being at third, the same question would remain if Heyward was in the second spot. If someone bunted Prado over or (God forbid) got a base hit in the second spot, would the other team play the infield in or not? It depends purely on what inning it is and the circumstances of the game. The decision for the other team BEFORE the second spot comes up is how to pitch to Heyward because Chipper Jones is behind him in the lineup. Putting McLouth there lets the opposing team attack him (assuming he doesn't bunt) because he isn't a dangerous hitter and ensures Jones will come up with one out...at least ensuring moreso than if Heyward were in the second spot.
“When everybody doing things like we did yesterday, hitting gappers, hitting some balls out of the ballpark, it makes [the lineup] good.”
Of course, anytime a team is hitting the ball well the lineup looks really good. This is kind of "no-shit" statement. This reminds me of what one of my friends says in reference to his favorite college basketball team that annoys the shit out of me. He will say, "When UNC is hitting their three-point shots and playing great defense they can't be beat." No shit. That goes for pretty much any basketball team.
The same thing applies to a lineup here. If a lineup is hitting well, the lineup is good. I get concerned sometimes about things managers say.
Some critics have cited the additional 60-80 plate appearances that Heyward could get if he hit high in the order as a big flaw in Gonzalez’s lineup. He was asked specifically about that fact and if he thought it was outweighed by the overall function of the lineup.
Right. The "overall function of the lineup," which appears to be "protect Dan Uggla and make sure Nate McLouth hits well enough to be an average players" as opposed to the highly less logical, "score more fucking runs to win games."
“I think the way the lineup is constructed is more important,” he said,
No one is going to argue this point. Bottom line...the Braves lineup is constructed to where their second-best hitter sees less plate appearances, has fewer opportunities to get driven in when on-base and has less protection (if we REALLY want to talk about protection) then he would otherwise get batting second in the lineup.
Mumbling some crap about "overall function" of a lineup or talking about lineup construction is great. The problem is the overall function of a lineup is to score runs and even using overly optimistic projections of McLouth's hitting abilities still has the Braves scoring more runs with Jason Heyward hitting second rather than McLouth.
“Then why don’t we lead off [Albert] Pujols? Or [Barry] Bonds? Lead ‘em off.”
BECAUSE THEY ARE GUYS WHO DRIVE IN RUNS AND IF THEY HIT FIRST THEY CAN'T DRIVE IN AS MANY RUNS.
The fact Fredi Gonzalez said this tells me he doesn't understand the counter-argument to batting McLouth second in the batting order. No one is saying you should bat your best hitters as far up in the lineup as possible. The counter-argument is that a fast, great hitting, OBP-machine like Jason Heyward should be batting in the lineup at a spot where he is on-base to get driven in or in a spot where he can drive in runs. Since the third spot in the batting order is taken, the second spot is the best place for him.
To suggest Bonds or Pujols should bat higher in the order, even out of jest, shows Gonzalez just doesn't get it. They should not bat lead off because they need to be at-bat when there are runners on-base. Jason Heyward is a runner who would be on-base, because that's what he does well.
Gonzalez then came back to reiterate one of the factors he emphasizes – the “human being” aspect. He’s said several times that part of why he decided in the spring to put McLouth in the 2-hole – besides his speed and bunting ability — was that he wanted him to get more fastballs, to get him going after his career-worst 2010 season.
Because the primary function of the 2011 Braves lineup should be to make sure an outfielder who had two seasons of being an above average player gets back to that point. This logic coming from Gonzalez who previously said the function of the lineup isn't about one player, which clearly was a complete lie.
For fuck's sake...why the hell would you put McLouth in the second spot for his bunting ability when you can put a guy in that spot who can get on-base and doesn't have to give up an out? Can we fire Fredi Gonzalez now? He is placing players in the lineup based on their ability to BUNT.
I would also like to talk about McLouth's "speed." He has 84 career stolen bases and 39 stolen bases since the beginning of the 2009 season. Is his "speed" really that important to the Braves lineup compared to Heyward's ability to hit the baseball?
“Believe me,” Gonzalez said, “when a guy’s going good in a certain spot — he likes it; he’s comfortable –
Unfortunately, Nate McLouth isn't "going good" and hasn't been for two years now.
“When you’re going bad, you come up with the bases loaded every time. I mean, you can be hitting 11th and it’ll happen. When you’re going good, it doesn’t matter.
Clearly, Fredi Gonzalez is a spy sent from another team to submarine any chances the Braves have to win 90 games.
“Everybody [in the lineup] has got a function.”
More gibberish. The function of a guy with a batting average below .250, below an OBP of .300 and has shown no power is to push his ass as far down the lineup as possible. The function of a guy who hits .270+, with an OBP of .370+ and who can hit 20 home runs is to have him up to the plate as much as possible.
The function of Fredi Gonzalez is to talk gibberish in a terrible attempt to justify his crazy lineup.
I will assume Fredi Gonzalez intends on sticking with this lineup, quite possibly until the day Jason Heyward leaves Atlanta to sign with the Yankees as a free agent in early 2017 (I think that's the date on my calendar this will happen). Anyway, Fredi Gonzalez wants us to know he isn't backing down on this and doesn't care if he has to use fuzzy logic to defend the move.
It doesn’t sound as if Braves manager Fredi Gonzalez is planning significant changes to his lineup. So don’t expect to see Jason Heyward batting second anytime soon.
Actually, Heyward did bat sixth a few days after this was written, but it isn't permanent and then Heyward was back in the 2-hole the day after that. It was just a tease. If it wasn't a small sample size, I would mention Heyward went 2-8 with a home run in the two games where he hit second. It is a small sample size of course, so I won't mention that, but as terrible as that is, it is still better than McLouth.
Plenty of fans and baseball analysts have opined that Gonzalez should move slugger and on-base-percentage machine Heyward up from his current sixth slot.
I have a very simple reason for saying this should happen. Jason Heyward should get as many at-bats as possible during the season. He gets on-base and the best place for him is second in the lineup because Jones, Uggla and McCann should be in the 3rd/4th/5th spots of the lineup. It's pretty simple. It's not about "protecting" anyone, but simply getting Heyward more at-bats.
The No. 2 position – Nate McLouth’s current spot — is a preferred destination of many critics.
Fangraphs has an article that basically says, "Having McLouth hit second isn't costing the Braves THAT many runs if you project McLouth's season optimistically" as the reasoning for Braves fans not worrying. I'm not going to get into the statistics of it, partially because I haven't looked into ZIPS very much in evaluating a player, but I will say I wouldn't go with the optimistic valuation of McLouth.
The two other reasons from this article about not worrying trouble me as well if I were a Braves fan:
1. Dave Cameron, the author, basically saying that it is a smart move based on ZIPS given McLouth's career statistics. Normally, I wouldn't have a problem with this, but McLouth has been awful over the past two seasons in Atlanta, so thinking he will hit his career averages, when he hasn't indicated he is capable of this is too optimistic for me.
McLouth has a career line in Pittsburgh of .261/.339.462.
McLouth has a career line in Atlanta of .227/.327/.370.
That's as of April 18th. So he has been bad in Atlanta and has been especially awful in 2010 and the first part of 2011, so even his average hitting during 2009 skews these numbers a bit.
2. The second reason he says Braves fans shouldn't worry is...and I will quote him exactly:
But if McLouth is going to hit like a middle infielder for the rest of 2011, odds are pretty good he’s not going to hit second all year. Gonzalez is not a stupid person, and he’s not going to keep an underperforming McLouth hitting at the top of the order all season. If the pessimistic assessment of his abilities is true, the difference in performance will be larger, but the length of time that this experiment lasts will be shorter.
So basically if McLouth keeps hitting like he has been then Fredi Gonzalez will eventually move him out of the second spot in the lineup. So basically don't worry Braves fans because your manager can't be stupid and keep McLouth in the second spot all year, even though the circumstantial evidence McLouth would hit better than Heyward at the beginning of the year wasn't compelling to anyone with eyes and Gonzalez still handed the second spot in the order to McLouth.
Besides, Gonzalez wants a second hitter that is fast and can bunt really well. I'm not kidding. That's his criteria for why McLouth is qualified for the job.
So I acknowledge Fan Graphs says not to worry, but what should worry the world in general is Gonzalez's entire logic behind the move. I say it should worry the world because one year it is a single manager using logic like this, the next year we see Josh Hamilton batting 7th in an attempt to protect Mike Napoli at the bottom of the Texas Rangers batting order.
“Yeah,” he said. “When you make out the lineup, the lineup is a function of the entire lineup – eight guys, not just one guy.
Which is why the entire logic of putting Heyward in the sixth spot to protect Dan Uggla and ensuring there is a rightie/leftie lineup all through the order doesn't make sense. We know the lineup is a function of the entire lineup, which is why batting your second best hitter sixth in the batting order doesn't necessarily make sense. In the function of the entire lineup, the second place hitter needs to be on-base for the other hitters in the lineup and using him to protect one other batter in a spot where he can be on-base for lesser hitters (namely Alex Gonzalez/Freddie Freeman) doesn't seem smart.
Statisticians, numbers crunchers and my SABR [Society for American Baseball Research] people – I’m a member – they shoot holes in that stuff.
Simply because you are a member doesn't mean all your decisions are SABR-approved.
But you’re dealing with humans in the way the lineup is constructed.
What? I thought these players were all robots?
Robots or humans, I think your best hitters need to get the most at-bats possible in the spot in the order where his value is optimized. I don't see how that is the sixth spot for Heyward.
“Yeah, you put this guy in the No. 2 hole, but what are you going to do to the 6-hole?
Put a player in there too? I don't see how the concern over what to do with the 6-hole means a lesser player (and more ill-fitted player) has to hit in the 2-hole. Did I miss memo where the sixth spot in the order was pronounced the most important spot in a batting order? Again, you want your best hitters getting the most at-bats at the best possible spot for them in the order. You want your best hitters to have guys to drive in as well. Nate McLouth's two biggest qualifications to bat in the second spot so far have been:
He isn't hitting well.
He can bunt.
He has "speed," which he utilize by running back to the dugout quickly after contributing nothing to the Braves team in the 2-hole.
What are you going to do to [No. 5 hitter Dan] Uggla when he’s hitting good?”
Watch him drive in more runs because there are more runners on-base? I thought the lineup was a function of the entire lineup and not just about one player. It seems Heyward hitting sixth is derived out of the primary function of making sure Dan Uggla has protection behind him. If Nate McLouth is good enough to hit in front of Chipper Jones, then why isn't he good enough to hit behind Dan Uggla?
It is some form of backward logic Gonzalez is using. Rather than worrying about the middle of the order having runners to bat in, he is worried the middle of the order has enough "protection," so they have a chance to get good pitches to hit, while forgetting he is burying one of his best players in the sixth spot. It doesn't matter if the middle of the order has "protection" or good pitches to hit if there aren't guys on-base to drive in. After saying the batting order is not about one player, Gonzalez has designed his entire batting order around two players, Nate McLouth and Dan Uggla. That doesn't make sense.
Gonzalez believes his current lineup is balanced, and that that balances, along with the alternating left-handed/right-handed situation up and down the order, will cause difficulties for opposing managers when most of the Braves are hitting well.
It's not balanced because a guy who got on-base at a .393 clip as a rookie is hitting sixth in the lineup for a guy who has a career high OBP of .356 and an OBP in 2010 of .298. His best hitters aren't getting the most at-bats in the spot of the order that maximizes their value.
“Like the situation [Tuesday], when McLouth bunts [Martin] Prado over to third,” he said. “Now are you are going to play the infield in?
This comment explains my entire problem perfectly. McLouth BUNTS Prado over to third base. Who wants a guy like Heyward who can actually get on-base without bunting when you can give away an out and bunt?
Are you going to pitch to Chipper or pitch to [No. 4 hitter Brian] McCann? That kind of stuff.
(Announcer #1) "What a move by Gonzalez! He has had McLouth bunt and now Martin Prado is at third-base. ARE THE CARDINALS GOING TO MOVE THE INFIELD IN OR NOT! YOUR MOVE LARUSSA!"
(Announcer #2) "I don't understand what's happening. It is the first inning. Why would the infield be drawn in?"
(Announcer #1) "You just don't get it. It's all part of the lineup function of the Braves. Are the Cardinals going to pitch to Chipper or McCann? Or will LaRussa just decide to walk those two guys and load the bases?"
(Announcer #2) "Don't we have that question anyway? First base is still open if the second hitter gets an out, so the Cardinals would still have to make this decision on how to pitch to Jones and McCann. It may have made more sense to put Heyward in the second spot and then hope he gets a base-hit or gets on-base, thereby having Jones and McCann up with zero outs."
(Announcer #1 spitting on Announcer #2) "Then who the hell would protect Dan Uggla?"
(Announcer #2) "What does Uggla have to do with this? I thought we were talking about the situation LaRussa was in about whether to pitch to Jones and McCann."
(Announcer #1 flashes his SABR card at Announcer #2) "I am a member, so I know what I am talking about. If Heyward is in the second spot then how the hell is Uggla supposed to be protected?"
(Announcer #2 screaming) "What does Dan Uggla have to do with the situation LaRussa is in right now? He isn't up for two more batters."
(Announcer #1) "But now LaRussa has to decide whether to pitch to Jones and McCann. What a move by Fredi Gonzalez. I have an erection."
(Announcer #2) "Of course he is going to pitch to them. It's the first inning. I am so confused as to what decision has to be made by Tony LaRussa. Potentially, if Jason Heyward were in the second spot then the Braves would have runners on first and third right now with zero outs. The point of an offense is to score runs."
(Announcer #1) "Actually, a lineup's purpose is to be functional. Yeah, Heyward could hit second, but then LaRussa wouldn't have to make a decision on whether to pitch to Jones or McCann because he would obviously pitch to them and that doesn't make it a functional lineup. It's all about a functional lineup."
(Announcer #2 sits in silence very confused)
(Announcer #1) "Tough break for the Braves as Jones walked and then McCann and Uggla struck out. Braves can't get a run across. The good news is Jason Heyward leads off the next inning for the Braves."
As far as Prado being at third, the same question would remain if Heyward was in the second spot. If someone bunted Prado over or (God forbid) got a base hit in the second spot, would the other team play the infield in or not? It depends purely on what inning it is and the circumstances of the game. The decision for the other team BEFORE the second spot comes up is how to pitch to Heyward because Chipper Jones is behind him in the lineup. Putting McLouth there lets the opposing team attack him (assuming he doesn't bunt) because he isn't a dangerous hitter and ensures Jones will come up with one out...at least ensuring moreso than if Heyward were in the second spot.
“When everybody doing things like we did yesterday, hitting gappers, hitting some balls out of the ballpark, it makes [the lineup] good.”
Of course, anytime a team is hitting the ball well the lineup looks really good. This is kind of "no-shit" statement. This reminds me of what one of my friends says in reference to his favorite college basketball team that annoys the shit out of me. He will say, "When UNC is hitting their three-point shots and playing great defense they can't be beat." No shit. That goes for pretty much any basketball team.
The same thing applies to a lineup here. If a lineup is hitting well, the lineup is good. I get concerned sometimes about things managers say.
Some critics have cited the additional 60-80 plate appearances that Heyward could get if he hit high in the order as a big flaw in Gonzalez’s lineup. He was asked specifically about that fact and if he thought it was outweighed by the overall function of the lineup.
Right. The "overall function of the lineup," which appears to be "protect Dan Uggla and make sure Nate McLouth hits well enough to be an average players" as opposed to the highly less logical, "score more fucking runs to win games."
“I think the way the lineup is constructed is more important,” he said,
No one is going to argue this point. Bottom line...the Braves lineup is constructed to where their second-best hitter sees less plate appearances, has fewer opportunities to get driven in when on-base and has less protection (if we REALLY want to talk about protection) then he would otherwise get batting second in the lineup.
Mumbling some crap about "overall function" of a lineup or talking about lineup construction is great. The problem is the overall function of a lineup is to score runs and even using overly optimistic projections of McLouth's hitting abilities still has the Braves scoring more runs with Jason Heyward hitting second rather than McLouth.
“Then why don’t we lead off [Albert] Pujols? Or [Barry] Bonds? Lead ‘em off.”
BECAUSE THEY ARE GUYS WHO DRIVE IN RUNS AND IF THEY HIT FIRST THEY CAN'T DRIVE IN AS MANY RUNS.
The fact Fredi Gonzalez said this tells me he doesn't understand the counter-argument to batting McLouth second in the batting order. No one is saying you should bat your best hitters as far up in the lineup as possible. The counter-argument is that a fast, great hitting, OBP-machine like Jason Heyward should be batting in the lineup at a spot where he is on-base to get driven in or in a spot where he can drive in runs. Since the third spot in the batting order is taken, the second spot is the best place for him.
To suggest Bonds or Pujols should bat higher in the order, even out of jest, shows Gonzalez just doesn't get it. They should not bat lead off because they need to be at-bat when there are runners on-base. Jason Heyward is a runner who would be on-base, because that's what he does well.
Gonzalez then came back to reiterate one of the factors he emphasizes – the “human being” aspect. He’s said several times that part of why he decided in the spring to put McLouth in the 2-hole – besides his speed and bunting ability — was that he wanted him to get more fastballs, to get him going after his career-worst 2010 season.
Because the primary function of the 2011 Braves lineup should be to make sure an outfielder who had two seasons of being an above average player gets back to that point. This logic coming from Gonzalez who previously said the function of the lineup isn't about one player, which clearly was a complete lie.
For fuck's sake...why the hell would you put McLouth in the second spot for his bunting ability when you can put a guy in that spot who can get on-base and doesn't have to give up an out? Can we fire Fredi Gonzalez now? He is placing players in the lineup based on their ability to BUNT.
I would also like to talk about McLouth's "speed." He has 84 career stolen bases and 39 stolen bases since the beginning of the 2009 season. Is his "speed" really that important to the Braves lineup compared to Heyward's ability to hit the baseball?
“Believe me,” Gonzalez said, “when a guy’s going good in a certain spot — he likes it; he’s comfortable –
Unfortunately, Nate McLouth isn't "going good" and hasn't been for two years now.
“When you’re going bad, you come up with the bases loaded every time. I mean, you can be hitting 11th and it’ll happen. When you’re going good, it doesn’t matter.
Clearly, Fredi Gonzalez is a spy sent from another team to submarine any chances the Braves have to win 90 games.
“Everybody [in the lineup] has got a function.”
More gibberish. The function of a guy with a batting average below .250, below an OBP of .300 and has shown no power is to push his ass as far down the lineup as possible. The function of a guy who hits .270+, with an OBP of .370+ and who can hit 20 home runs is to have him up to the plate as much as possible.
The function of Fredi Gonzalez is to talk gibberish in a terrible attempt to justify his crazy lineup.
Thursday, March 13, 2008
0 comments So Is He White or Disabled In Some Fashion?
http://www.ajc.com/braves/content/sports/braves/stories/2008/03/12/anderson_0313.html
Dave O' Brien has done a wonderful job profiling Josh Anderson. Who you ask? Exactly. This is the type of article that annoys me, which is a puff piece that does not answer my major question. What stereotype is he busting? O'Brien does not say exactly, but let it be known, there is some major stereotype busting going on. My guess is that he is white. I will let you decide.
You heard he led the minor leagues with 78 stolen bases in 2004 and immediately conjured an image of Josh Anderson. Then you met him. It was not what you had in mind.
No Davy boy, I heard the Braves traded Oscar Villerreal to the Astros (not on my team, don't care to spell it correctly) and conjured an image of Chris Burke or Hunter Pence playing for the Braves. Then I heard the name Josh Anderson and thought of this kid in Junior High that used to whip the other guys in the locker room with their Umbros, and began to wonder what had happened to him since Junior High...most likely jail if I had to guess. Then I wondered why the Braves traded a middle reliever that was effective for them last year, which made me wonder why they did not keep Dotel to be the set up man. It seemed like they traded away a good portion of the bullpen which does not seem smart. At this point, I was at the end of the article and could not remember what I had just read, so I got back to the name Josh Anderson. I have never met him, but when I heard he was a 4th outfielder that had barely played in the majors, that was not what I had in mind, no. On that you are correct.
Oh, yes, he's fast.
He better be, Jeff Francoeur can not cover the entire outfield himself, because Matt Diaz is not going to help.
The former Astros prospect — and former high-school basketball star and slam-dunk champion — has emerged as a leading candidate for the Braves' fourth-outfielder job.
Awesome! So the Braves have that covered in case the Mets come to town and would prefer not to play baseball but give us the choice between a slam dunk contest or a pick up game of basketball. I want to hear more about this slam dunk champ in case this ever happens. By the way, can the Braves sign Julianne Hough in case the Nationals come in town again and we "get served" in another dance contest by Dmitri Young? That was embarrassing for everyone.
"I'm a big Dukes of Hazzard fan, and that was filmed near Atlanta."
Before you think stereotype after that reference, know this: Anderson was recruited by Princeton to play basketball. Ivy League.
That literally makes no sense. The only way that sentence would make sense is if you are racist and think a white boy playing basketball or an African American watching Dukes of Hazzard is odd. Is this like one of those "pick your own conclusions" books I read as a youngster where we get to choose what happens next? If so, I want him to be Phillipino...and I would want him to win a Slam Dunk Contest.
Won a slam-dunk contest at the 2000 Showcase Games for Central Kentucky All-Stars.
A write-up about the event called him "high flying Josh Anderson." Anyone sense a pattern of stereotype-smashing here?
If he makes the team, the Braves might finally have someone who can beat John Smoltz in one-on-one at the pitcher's backyard full court.
Thanks for telling me more about the Slam Dunk victory. No, I do not sense a pattern of stereotype smashing though. I need to know what his race is so we can stereotype him. Hurry it up, I think he may be Haitian and I need to know. I hope he can beat John Smoltz at basketball, Smoltz is 40. Unfortunately Smoltz could not identify him from this article because he would not know what he looks like to invite him over to lose play basketball.
His advantage over prospect Brandon Jones in the fourth-outfielder race is the fact that Anderson plays center. Brandon Jones is a corner outfielder, and the Braves might use Matt Diaz as an everyday left fielder, rather than platoon.
Brandon Jones is also a potential five tool outfielder, so I would rather he play and get experience, while Diaz has hit .300 in his limited playing time. Either option seems preferable honestly to Anderson. I don't think Jones can dunk though, so put in Anderson!
He doesn't hit for power — just 15 homers in 602 minor-league games — but the Braves wouldn't want him to try.
As long as he can do a reverse slam windmill, we don't need no stinking homeruns from the centerfielder. Last chance Davy boy, what is his race and what did you write this article for if you are not going to tell me? It is hard to see what stereotype is being busted if you don't tell me what race the person is. Let me stereotype dammit!!
Anderson has the speed to go get it.
Yeah, buddy.
I give up. It does not really matter but you can't write an article about stereotypes and not include the stereotype being busted. If Davy O' Brien did a biography on Helen Keller she would just seem lazy.
Dave O' Brien has done a wonderful job profiling Josh Anderson. Who you ask? Exactly. This is the type of article that annoys me, which is a puff piece that does not answer my major question. What stereotype is he busting? O'Brien does not say exactly, but let it be known, there is some major stereotype busting going on. My guess is that he is white. I will let you decide.
You heard he led the minor leagues with 78 stolen bases in 2004 and immediately conjured an image of Josh Anderson. Then you met him. It was not what you had in mind.
No Davy boy, I heard the Braves traded Oscar Villerreal to the Astros (not on my team, don't care to spell it correctly) and conjured an image of Chris Burke or Hunter Pence playing for the Braves. Then I heard the name Josh Anderson and thought of this kid in Junior High that used to whip the other guys in the locker room with their Umbros, and began to wonder what had happened to him since Junior High...most likely jail if I had to guess. Then I wondered why the Braves traded a middle reliever that was effective for them last year, which made me wonder why they did not keep Dotel to be the set up man. It seemed like they traded away a good portion of the bullpen which does not seem smart. At this point, I was at the end of the article and could not remember what I had just read, so I got back to the name Josh Anderson. I have never met him, but when I heard he was a 4th outfielder that had barely played in the majors, that was not what I had in mind, no. On that you are correct.
Oh, yes, he's fast.
He better be, Jeff Francoeur can not cover the entire outfield himself, because Matt Diaz is not going to help.
The former Astros prospect — and former high-school basketball star and slam-dunk champion — has emerged as a leading candidate for the Braves' fourth-outfielder job.
Awesome! So the Braves have that covered in case the Mets come to town and would prefer not to play baseball but give us the choice between a slam dunk contest or a pick up game of basketball. I want to hear more about this slam dunk champ in case this ever happens. By the way, can the Braves sign Julianne Hough in case the Nationals come in town again and we "get served" in another dance contest by Dmitri Young? That was embarrassing for everyone.
"I'm a big Dukes of Hazzard fan, and that was filmed near Atlanta."
Before you think stereotype after that reference, know this: Anderson was recruited by Princeton to play basketball. Ivy League.
That literally makes no sense. The only way that sentence would make sense is if you are racist and think a white boy playing basketball or an African American watching Dukes of Hazzard is odd. Is this like one of those "pick your own conclusions" books I read as a youngster where we get to choose what happens next? If so, I want him to be Phillipino...and I would want him to win a Slam Dunk Contest.
Won a slam-dunk contest at the 2000 Showcase Games for Central Kentucky All-Stars.
A write-up about the event called him "high flying Josh Anderson." Anyone sense a pattern of stereotype-smashing here?
If he makes the team, the Braves might finally have someone who can beat John Smoltz in one-on-one at the pitcher's backyard full court.
Thanks for telling me more about the Slam Dunk victory. No, I do not sense a pattern of stereotype smashing though. I need to know what his race is so we can stereotype him. Hurry it up, I think he may be Haitian and I need to know. I hope he can beat John Smoltz at basketball, Smoltz is 40. Unfortunately Smoltz could not identify him from this article because he would not know what he looks like to invite him over to lose play basketball.
His advantage over prospect Brandon Jones in the fourth-outfielder race is the fact that Anderson plays center. Brandon Jones is a corner outfielder, and the Braves might use Matt Diaz as an everyday left fielder, rather than platoon.
Brandon Jones is also a potential five tool outfielder, so I would rather he play and get experience, while Diaz has hit .300 in his limited playing time. Either option seems preferable honestly to Anderson. I don't think Jones can dunk though, so put in Anderson!
He doesn't hit for power — just 15 homers in 602 minor-league games — but the Braves wouldn't want him to try.
As long as he can do a reverse slam windmill, we don't need no stinking homeruns from the centerfielder. Last chance Davy boy, what is his race and what did you write this article for if you are not going to tell me? It is hard to see what stereotype is being busted if you don't tell me what race the person is. Let me stereotype dammit!!
Anderson has the speed to go get it.
Yeah, buddy.
I give up. It does not really matter but you can't write an article about stereotypes and not include the stereotype being busted. If Davy O' Brien did a biography on Helen Keller she would just seem lazy.
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