Showing posts with label mock drafts suck. Show all posts
Showing posts with label mock drafts suck. Show all posts

Tuesday, April 23, 2019

15 comments MMQB Review: Peter Feels a Draft Edition (I'm Not Calling it FMIA)

I'll skip the typical preamble I've written over the last several years about trying to do more of this and I'm not sure when I'll do it again. Blah, blah, blah. You think you've heard it enough, imagine how many times I've written the "I'm trying to come back and find time..." preamble in the posts I've aborted. I figure I would give this a real shot to see if I remember how to do it. The NFL draft is a few days away and Peter King's sources help him formulate his mock draft. We know how this will play out. Trades happen, smokescreens happen and then Peter will get 4-5 picks correct. Back when I did mock drafts I usually got that many correct on a good year. Today, Peter forgets how to link columns he's referencing, Mike Mayock's daughter explains sending all of the team's scouts home a week before the draft is PERFECTLY NORMAL, and the Adieu Haiku is still a thing unfortunately.

Interesting mock draft dropped Sunday morning in the Los Angeles Times. The paper’s redoubtable NFL beat man, Sam Farmer, 
 
He has me blocked on Twitter. Why? I don't know, because I'm a really nice person.

On a side note, I always like the certainty with which these players are discussed prior to the draft. "10 year starter" and "best defensive player in the draft" is thrown around like gospel rather than the pure speculation it truly is. Also, Peter used to work with Mike Mayock at NBC, so you can feel him rooting for Mayock. I'm sure we will get some excuse-making for Mayock from the media if he struggles as a first-time GM. You know, like if he sends all of his scouts a week before the draft it could be portrayed as a normal thing to do.

had his annual sportswriter mock draft—he’s done it for 10 years—in which he asks longtime NFL writers he trusts in the franchise cities to make the pick of the team they cover. 

Great, I'd love to read it. Let me click on the link and read this despite the fact Sam Farmer has me blocked and clearly doesn't want me to read what he writes.

(Looks for the link to the Sam Farmer article in FMIA, finds nothing)

Usually, when someone refers to a writing on the Interwebs, that person also provides a link. This is especially done when mentioning the Interwebs writing in a complimentary manner. Alas, Peter shall not do this because because because.

This was Somers’ pick, and his explanation to Farmer:

“Arizona: DT Quinnen Williams, Alabama. The Cardinals like Josh Rosen, and I don’t see them taking a quarterback in the first round two years in a row. They need help on the defensive line and Williams would immediately provide that. GM Steve Keim has made some mistakes in the first round by taking guys who weren’t that passionate about football (Jonathan Cooper, Robert Nkemdiche). So I can see them taking Williams.”

This is the part where I mention I read an article about Kyler Murray in "Sports Illustrated" and it seems like one big red flag. It was a well-written article and you should read it sometime. I know, I'll link it here out of courtesy to the article's author.

I'm not stuck on Murray's height, though it doesn't help my opinion of him. He seems somewhat indifferent to what sport he plays. Mostly, I would like a happy medium between "I have made a blood oath to play football and if I violate this oath, then my family shall suffer the consequences of my actions" and "My dad told me to choose and I think I thought about it and this is what I want for now." I don't know. Murray and D.J. Metcalf are two guys I probably wouldn't draft as high as they are going to go. But guess what? No one asked me.

Interesting … and though I’m going to disagree with Somers in my projection, swept along with the Kyler Murray tidal wave, I do think there’s a good rationale for trading down or taking another player. 

To be clear, it's a very tiny tidal wave that isn't even sure it wants to sweep Peter up or not. You know, whatever the moon's gravitational pool wants the tidal wave to do and all. 

The Cardinals have done a good job in shutting up since it was reported at the combine seven weeks ago that Kingsbury let it slip that drafting Murray was a “done deal.”

EVER SINCE THE CARDINALS PUBLICLY PROCLAIMED WHO THEY ARE GOING TO PICK, THEY HAVE DONE A GOOD JOB OF PRETENDING THEY HAVEN'T PUBLICLY PROCLAIMED WHO THEY ARE GOING TO PICK.

I can't understate how upset I am that Peter King didn't refer to Kliff Kingsbury as "precocious." I could not be more disappointed, but at least Peter uses the word once in this FMIA that is really MMQB.

Two other bits of light drama: 

There is just light drama for now. The heavy drama starts on Friday and Saturday when Mike Mayock and Jon Gruden realize the draft isn't going as they expected and there are no scouts around to bounce ideas off. But don't worry, Mike Mayock's daughter will Tweet about how all of this heavy drama is totally normal.

I have four quarterbacks going, but lower than you think—at 1, 15, 23 and 31.

Ah yes, Peter still knows what I'm thinking better than I know what I'm thinking, so he knows when I expect the quarterbacks to be drafted in Thursday's draft. 

1. Arizona: Kyler Murray, QB, Oklahoma

They could decide to take Murray, the choice of head coach Kliff Kinsgbury. They could decide to take the best edge-rusher (Nick Bosa)—who I hear is the choice of many in the building—or the best player (Quinnen Williams) in the draft.

Oh yes, Williams is "the best player in the draft." I love these labels based on projections which are never, ever wrong. I've been wrong about them, so I would expect Peter to know better, except I know better than to expect Peter to know better. 

2. San Francisco: Nick Bosa, edge rusher, Ohio State

Niners have loved him since the Cotton Bowl in 2017, when Bosa’s 1.5 sacks led the marauding Ohio State defense in a 24-7 pummeling of USC’s Sam Darnold in the last game of the star QB’s college career. I hear the Cardinals think of Bosa as a “generational player,” which just speaks to their love of Murray if they’re willing to pass on Bosa and leave him to the Niners.

(Whispers) This could also speak to Kliff Kingsbury not knowing what he's doing if he's the only one in the Cardinals organization who wants to draft Murray and the choice of many in the building is a different guy who they consider to be a "generational player."

But again, I'm just a guy typing on a keyboard, while Kliff Kingsbury is a guy who just got fired a few months ago for not winning enough football games. Though he did have creative control over Texas Tech's uniforms and the team did look very spiffy while they lost games. I'm only saying that if the choice of many in the building is considered a "generational player" and the guy who wants Kyler Murray is the head coach who went 35-40 as a head coach in college, as well as 19-35 in Big 12 play, I'm going with the "many" who want Bosa. Also, I would not have hired Kliff Kingsbury. But again, I can't discount the wisdom of the team that fired their last coach after one season because he didn't win enough games with a rookie quarterback the team is currently trying to replace.

3. New York Jets: Ed Oliver, DT, Houston

Imagine Josh McDaniels, Chad O’Shea and Brian Daboll—the offensive brains of the AFC East—designing protections to keep Leonard Williams and Oliver from wrecking games over the next three or four years.

Get rid of the ball quickly. One of these three offensive coordinators has thus far shown he knows how to design protections to do this. I'll give you a guess which AFC East team he gets paid by.

5. Tampa Bay: Devin White, LB, LSU

Lots of people love White, a tackling machine who, at 237, tackles with the force of a 260-pounder. I’m taking my best guess of what GM Jason Licht would do if he was staring at White and Josh Allen here … because the Bucs need a pass-rusher too. Jason Pierre-Paul is 30, and other than possibly the precocious Carl Nassib,

Carl Nassib is so precocious. Peter could just pinch his cheeks and slap him on the ass with a paddle as a light dramatic punishment. Why would a grown man be considered precocious? Well, at the age of 26, no defensive end should have 12 career sacks. By the definition of "precocious" (which is "exceptionally early in development or occurrence") there is no way a defensive end should average 4 sacks per season by age 26. So precocious.

Plus, White might be the best defensive leader in this draft.

If you are keeping score at home, which if not, why aren't you, please update your NFL Draft whiteboard with the following 2019 NFL Draft superlatives:

Kyler Murray: Most Likely to be Drafted by Kliff Kingsbury
Nick Bosa: Best Edge-Rusher/Generational Talent
Quinnen Williams: Best Player in the Draft
Devin White: Best Defensive Leader in the Draft

I don't want to spoil the next superlative, but R.I.P. Jason Witten.

A veteran personnel man who knows Dave Gettleman said the other day, “Dave wants a pass-rusher in the worst way. He won’t reach for one, but he’ll get one with one his first three picks.”

Gettleman won't reach for one, but looking at his history of drafting DE's, where the two DE's he drafted in Carolina (one in the 2nd round and one in the 3rd round) are no longer on the roster, and the 1st round DT he drafted for pass rushing purposes isn't going to have his fifth year option picked up, it doesn't look great. Other than that, "getting one" wasn't the issue. It was getting a good one in the draft, though he did draft KK Short. And I know Dave Gettleman and it's a crapshoot whether he drafts a good defensive end or not.

7. Jacksonville: T.J. Hockenson, TE, Iowa

Daniel Jeremiah said the other day he thinks Hockenson could be the reincarnation of Jason Witten. 

So when did Jason Witten die? If Hockenson is the reincarnation of Jason Witten, that has to mean Jason Witten died. Sure, some "Monday Night Football" viewers may have wished Witten was dead, but that doesn't mean he is. He only acted brain-dead.

T.J. Hockenson: Most Likely to Have Been Reincarnated as the Not-Yet-Dead Jason Witten.

Bills love Quinnen Williams, but I can’t see the Raiders parting with him if he’s there at four. Bills could also trade up for Josh Allen, 

Well, that would be confusing to draft two players named "Josh Allen" in the first round in consecutive seasons.

or pick T.J. Hockenson if he falls to them. But if they stay, Jonah Williams could be an upgrade to Spencer Long at right guard or possibly, eventually, Ty Nsekhe, at right tackle. Lots of differing opinions in the scouting community on Williams. I would ask Bills Nation to look up “quixotic” in the dictionary. 

Yeah, you fucking in-bred high school graduate Bills fans. Go look up big words in the dictionary so that you may understand the big words that Peter King doesn't even use in the context of your draft pick because you are all too stupid to get it anyway. Look up the word, come back, and then you will understand the word Peter wanted to use, but didn't, because he doesn't want to lose you. 

Jonah Williams: Basically Don Quixote

18. Minnesota: Garrett Bradbury, C, North Carolina State

Speaking of PFF, the lowest-rated NFL center in the league by far last year was Minnesota’s Pat Elflein. 

And when have PFF ratings, many of which come out an hour or two after an NFL game has ended, thereby showing no regard for space and time through which a person could grade a three hour game, ever been wrong?

The Vikings pick at 18, 50 and 81, and the perception on the scouting trail is that two of those three picks will be offensive linemen.

And if any team knows offensive linemen, it's the team that drafted Matt Kalil and signed Mike Remmers as a free agent. Very offensive. 

Garrett Bradbury: Most Likely to Not Be Offensive

20. Pittsburgh: Rock Ya-Sin, CB, Temple

Imagine the first cornerback off the board being a guy who played one year at Temple after transferring from the Presbyterian (S.C.) College Blue Hose, and who will have one of the great names in the history of whatever team drafts him. 

Okay, I imagined it. It's ironic that Peter King thinks the name of a prospect is funny when that prospect changed the name he uses for public consumption (from "Abdurrahman Ibn") because he knew many people could not pronounce it. Peter never fails to show what a man of the world he is.

Rock Ya-Sin: Most Likely to Sound Like a Rapper Who Appeared on a Nas Album That Wasn't "Illmatic" or "Stillmatic."

21. Oakland: Josh Jacobs, RB, Alabama

PROJECTED TRADE: Oakland sends 24th and 106th picks to Seattle for this choice.

So, the best running back in this draft will probably be picked somewhere in the twenties,

Josh Jacobs: Best Running Back in the Draft

I met with Jacobs last week, by the way. Delightful fellow.

As was Johnny Manziel prior to the year he was drafted. Both played in the SEC and both have a "J" in their name. They have nothing to do with each other, but I wanted to remind you that Peter was taken in by Johnny Manziel, which I probably shouldn't really blame Peter for. Manziel just wanted to get drafted higher than he deserved so he was on his good behavior for a few months.

Josh Jacobs: Most Likely to be a Pretty Delightful Fellow

22. Baltimore: Clelin Ferrell, DE, Clemson 

New England hopes Ferrell falls 10 more spots, but he won’t. The Ravens also could trade—rookie GM Eric DeCosta would love to accumulate more picks. But Ferrell is an ideal building block on a defensive front that needs a new star. I won’t be shocked if Ferrell is gone if the Ravens take a 10-year center like Erik McCoy of Texas A&M;

Erik McCoy: Most Likely to be a 10-Year Center

23. New York Giants: Daniel Jones, QB, Duke

PROJECTED TRADE: New York gets this pick and No. 55 from Houston for No. 17 overall.

As for Jones the player, there’s a wide disparity in opinion in the man who went 17-19 as a college starter. Very smart, but he doesn’t have the deep arm of the three other first-round candidates. In Bob McGinn’s annual deep dive into the top draft prospects, the veteran scribe quotes a NFL scout saying of Jones: “He reminds me of Ryan Tannehill. There’s just something missing with him.” Damning, but the four first-rounders seem to all have zits this year.

Daniel Jones: Most Likely to Have a Weak-Ass Arm, Plus Has Challenges Controlling His Acne

I also have to address the "Four first-rounders seem to all have zits this year" comment. I feel like every year we hear two things about that draft's quarterbacks.

1. Next year's class is better than this year.
2. This year's class all have weaknesses which bothers some NFL GM's.

Other than Andrew Luck, who is the pinnacle of QB perfection and has been since the day he emerged from his mother's womb playbook in his hand, when was the last time there has been a QB or group of first-round QB's that were considered "safe" or guy(s) who didn't have questions about their talent? I can't remember a time. Every draft there are questions about the top quarterbacks in the draft. It's the nature of the NFL. I would expect the QB's to have zits every single year, as they are college quarterbacks who aren't perfect.

25. Philadelphia: Marquise Brown, WR, Oklahoma

Some love him. Some think he’s too wispy at 166, and they’re worried that he enters the NFL nursing a foot injury, and he might be prone to injury in the big-boy league.

This is not a terribly poor spot for Brown, but I would think a player of this weight and with his recent injury history should legitimately have questions about his ability to stay healthy. The list of small-ish wide receivers taken in the 1st round isn't great of late either. John Ross was let go by the Bengals, Will Fuller (he is listed at 185 pounds) has been very injury-prone, Phillip Dorsett has been a disappointment, and Tavon Austin is not that good either. Of course, Brandin Cooks has been great. But a college wide receiver that is small-ish already has a strike against him, much less a college wide receiver coming off a major injury.

Marquise Brown: Most Likely to be Wispy

27. Oakland: Deandre Baker, CB, Georgia

If the Raiders can come out of this first round with the best defensive tackle in the draft, the best running back in the draft, and a corner who should push for playing time immediately, it’s going to be a successful first draft for the rookie GM Mayock.

If you can say Williams is the best defensive tackle in the draft, Jacobs is the best running back for the draft and ignore that the Raiders are so thin at CB that any player drafted in the first two rounds then you may be Mike Mayock's friend. I'm being snide, but Mayock is a first-time GM and when has Jon Gruden been an astute drafter of talent? I will remain skeptical until I am proven otherwise.

Given the combination of Jon Gruden and Mike Mayock in Oakland, the calisthenics required to compliment the job they are doing and remove responsibility among their friends in the media might break world records if the Raiders struggle again this year. But don't worry, we will see here in a minute that Peter has the Raiders schedule as the reason they could struggle this year. At least the NFL has given Gruden a ready-made excuse for potential mediocrity.

30. Green Bay: D.K. Metcalf, WR, Mississippi

They haven’t taken a receiver in the top 50 in 11 years (Jordy Nelson, 2008, 36th overall). I could see Andre Dillard here too, but Brian Gutekunst is trying to stock up for one last multi-year run with Aaron Rodgers, giving him the kind of weapons that will allow him to be Aaron Rodgers again.

"One last multi-year run" as if this isn't the goal of nearly every NFL GM, given the salary cap restrictions in the NFL. 

I might go Marquise Brown here if I were Green Bay, but I realize a 166-pound burner may not have the shelf life of a Sterling Sharpe-big-bodied player like Metcalf.

What if a 166-pound burner actually knows how to get open and catch a football, which D.K. Metcalf hasn't shown he can do with his 67 career receptions? Also, Metcalf played in 21 games in his college career at Ol' Miss, while Marquise Brown and his short shelf life played in 25 games over his college career at Oklahoma. Brown may seem brittle but he's been durable compared to Metcalf.

Denver likes Lock, and might be able to snag him as a two-year learner behind Joe Flacco while retaining the ability to use the 71st pick this year on a potential starter at a need position, like Texas A&M tight end Jace Sternberger. A move like this wouldn’t surprise me, but I also think the way Denver GM John Elway’s talking, he could punt on a young quarterback until the richer QB draft of 2020.

There's the narrative I like! Next year's draft is going to be a great one, at least until Jacob Fromm struggles this year, questions about Tua's height crop up and whatever else happens that causes doubts in the minds of NFL scouts ends up happening. THEN, it is the 2021 QB class with Trevor Lawrence that is the really rich one. Around and around we go. 

John Elway: Most Likely to Poorly Evaluate a College Quarterback

In the end, I struggled mightily with the Frank Clark trade from Seattle to Kansas City. I had the trade in my first draft of the mock on Friday, then took it out for 48 hours, and just put it back in Sunday night. The waffling came before I sent Clark to the Chiefs because of the Kareem Hunt and Tyreek Hill incidents. And I will not be surprised at all if the Chiefs don’t do it. But I’m taking the gamble, because the Kansas City need for edge-rush is so pronounced. 

It feels like wanting Frank Clark's ability to rush the passer is nice, but I have to think even the Chiefs are self-aware enough to not trade for him. It's not like he's beating women and children on the regular, like Tyreek Hill seems to do, but he's not exactly shown over the past few years that his lesson was learned.

• Here is something that simply should not happen. The factoid that, upon further review, is a blight on the 2019 schedule:

Raider games in Oakland in the 48 days between Sept. 16 and Nov. 2: zero.
Raider games in Oakland in the 15 days between Nov. 3 and Nov. 17: three.

Let me say, this is crazy and ridiculous scheduling by the NFL. But, I am also jaded and now that Peter likes Mike Mayock, so I can't help but be so jaded this bizarre scheduling isn't in some way going to be used as an excuse if the Raiders struggle this year. 

I’m going to try to interpret why the NFL did what it did to Oakland. First, the Raiders and the A’s are the only football and baseball teams sharing one stadium. The Raiders are not keen on playing many games on the field when it is set up for baseball, with the skin infield and pitcher’s mound.

Because with how the Oakland Raiders have treated their fans with the whole "moving town" thing, it's only right that the franchise be treated fairly so there isn't a huge gap between their home games. After all, the fans the team is abandoning want to see the team play, so the NFL should consider the needs of the fans the Raiders are screwing over. In reality, if the Raiders don't want to play on the field set up for baseball (which I understand), then it's not going to make scheduling their games easier. This is just a basic fact of the matter.

Imagine if Al Davis saw this schedule. The Raiders play five straight games between Sept. 22 and Oct. 27, at mid-morning on their bodyclocks. Five games in a row, all at 10 a.m. PT.

Counterargument: If the Raiders play five straight games at 1pm EST, then it should be easier to acclimate their bodyclocks to playing at this time compared to having games at 1pm EST throughout their schedule. The Raiders will have a chance to get used to playing at 1pm if they play five games in a row at that time.

• Bills Mafia will be screaming about respect. Bills fans are an insular lot, with the Bills Mafia as loyal a fan group as exists in the NFL. What must the Mafiosos have been thinking when Buffalo was the only team of 32 to get zero prime time games? The coaches must love 14 games with 1 p.m. ET starts, and five road trips of an hour or less in the air. But the fans feel only disrespect. The only nod to national attraction is Buffalo’s first Thanksgiving game in 25 years—the mid-afternoon CBS tilt at Dallas.

I would think a Thanksgiving game is not terribly disrespectful. It's only going to be one of the most-watched games of the year. But every NFL fan base screams about respect. My favorite team's fan base is always whining about how nobody respects the team. It's standard fandom stuff. 
“As a kid, my whole dream was to win Super Bowls and play QB in the NFL. For me it was always football. But at the same time it wasn’t.”
—Kyler Murray, to Robert Klemko of The MMQB and Sports Illustrated in a magazine story this week.

Again, reading that article didn't make me question that Kyler Murray likes to play football. It made me question whether Murray didn't like playing baseball as much as he likes playing football and made me wonder what happens when his father has less of a say in the decision. Throw in that even Lincoln Riley indicates that Murray's leadership skills aren't necessarily one of his best attributes and he's a lot of red flags for me.

Bill Belichick turned 67 the other day, which is about the time most normal human beings are seriously pondering retirement.

I seriously ponder retirement around the same time I die, partly because my Social Security money is being drained by Baby Boomers like Bill Belichick and medical care will be so expensive at that point in my life I may have to work just to pay for it. Anyway, carry on...

In fact, 12 of the 15 winningest coaches have not coached, or did not coach, at age 67 or older. Belichick will make that 11 of 15 this fall.

Looking at the top 15, and how many seasons they coached after turning 67:

1. Don Shula: 0. Coached last game at 65.
2. George Halas: 6. Went 47-33-5 and won one NFL title after turning 67.
3. Belichick.
4. Tom Landry: 0. Coached last game at 64.
5. Curly Lambeau: 0. Coached last game at 55.
6. Chuck Noll: 0. Coached last game at 59.
7. Andy Reid: 0. He is 61.
8. Marty Schottenheimer: 0. Coached last game at 63.
9. Dan Reeves: 0. Coached last game at 59.
10. Chuck Knox: 0. Coached last game at 62.
11. Bill Parcells: 0. Coached last game at 65.
12. Tom Coughlin: 3. Went 19-29 after turning 67.
13. Mike Shanahan: 0. Coached last game at 61.
14. Jeff Fisher: 0. Coached last game at 58.
15. Paul Brown: 1. Went 11-4 after turning 67.

You can not convince me that Peter didn't include this information just so he could put Jeff Fisher's name up here. My level of jaded is off the charts.

Lots of Steve Keim criticism. From Ravven L.: “I find it interesting that you say the Cards personnel people are at ‘the upper end among personnel people in belief in their ability to pick players’ but then you detail the incredible lack of talent on that team. How are these two statements compatible?”

My statement was about how confident GM Steve Keim and VP of player personnel Terry McDonough are about their personnel acumen—not about their recent performance in the draft and free agency, which has obviously been lacking. 

So because the Cardinals think they are good at picking players, not based on the recent performance of picking players, the Cards personnel people are at "the upper end among personnel people in belief in their ability to pick players"? I feel like this is a sort of circular reasoning.

"Because we believe we are good at picking players, we will continue to believe that we are good at picking players based on this belief."

But let’s be fair. Arizona won 50 games in Keim’s first five years as GM, got Carson Palmer very cheap in trade with Oakland, and hired Bruce Arians as one of his first decisions as GM (along with club president Michael Bidwill). In his drafts, Keim drafted Tyrann Mathieu with the 69th pick, John Brown with the 91st, and David Johnson with the 86th. He traded the 61st pick plus guard Jonathan Cooper to New England for Chandler Jones; Jones has recorded 41 sacks in his three Cardinals seasons. It’s okay to say Keim is in a personnel slump, but overall, his six years have been better than average.

He also fired Steve Wilks after one season, used the #10 pick on a quarterback he may no longer want, while Mathieu/Brown are no longer with the team. The problem is a personnel slump can set an NFL team back quite a few seasons. While Peter points to the 50 games the Cardinals have won over Keim's first five seasons, they have won 18 games over the last three seasons. That is a more important and relevant statistic. 

1. I think there was a lot of buzz Friday when NFL Network’s Ian Rapoport tweeted that the Raiders would send home their scouts for the weekend, and for the days leading up to the draft, preventing them from leaking any of the information on the team’s draft board. “The belief is they [Jon Gruden and Mike Mayock] don’t know who to trust and wanted to clear the room,” Rapoport reported. A few thoughts:

Peter has to cape up for Mike Mayock now. He spends four solid paragraphs of bullet points pointing out that "this is all really fucking normal, guys." Perhaps it is normal, which is contrary to most of what I have read. It seems like a chaotic situation to me.

There is also this doozy:

• Re Mayock: One of his friends in the league told me the other day he felt this was Mayock’s attempt to take control over a process that he’s running for the first time in his life. “Wouldn’t you think it’s fair for Mike, with three picks in the first round, to close the circle and keep it as tight as he can?” this friend said.

Sure, if I'm desperate to make excuses for Mayock and I'm his friend, this is how I would reason out the decision. If I were a reasonable person who did not know Mike Mayock personally, I would say as a rookie GM running his first draft wouldn't I want the same scouts who have provided me with evaluations over the past few months to be present in the draft room so I can ensure the best decisions are being made for the future of the franchise? I wouldn't say it's "fair" for Mayock to close the circle, because that's an odd choice of words, but it's certainly within his right to do it. Why Mayock (and Gruden) would do this is the concern, not whether Mayock could do it.

I take the opinion of a Mayock's friend with a grain of salt. They are friends, so of course wrong or right, the friend will rationalize it.

 • Mayock’s daughter Leigh tweeted over the weekend that she went out to dinner with her dad recently and when he went to the bathroom, he took his draft notebook with him rather than leave it at the table, where only his daughter was. “Don’t take it personal scouties,” she said.

Oh, well if Mike Mayock's daughter says this is normal then I guess I should change my mind. In this situation, Mayock didn't leave his draft notebook in public with his daughter at the table where any stranger could run up and grab it. If Mayock considers his scouts to be strangers who would take his draft notebook for nefarious purposes, then perhaps they should have been fired a long time ago. I get that Mayock (and Gruden) want total control over the draft process, but they can do this without essentially telling their scouts to find other jobs. So despite what Mike Mayock's daughter says, telling the Raiders scouts to not show up for the draft is really odd. 

2. I think for all of you, particularly in Packer Nation, who wonder why in the world Green Bay has never played in England or Mexico, you may not have to wonder that much more. I think Green Bay’s time is coming, likely as soon as 2020, to finally go on the road to play a game in London. The reasons why Green Bay has never had to make the trip are predictable—the Packers don’t want to give up one of eight sold-out home games, and no team hosting the Packers wants to give up that gate because the Packers travel so well and fill the stadium and local hotels with fans. But I think the NFL is conscious of not giving a prized franchise special treatment.

Because when I think of the NFL, I think of them being conscious of not giving prized franchises special treatment. Any review of the schedule of primetime games shows that the NFL definitely doesn't play favorites. It just feels like the Cowboys play three Sunday Night Football games every single year. Sometimes they play two and sometimes they play four. 

5. I think that’s why the draft is so compelling. So many people. So many opinions

And yet, Twitter is a cesspool for these same reasons. Weird. 

8. I think my favorite quote of the spring, and nothing is close for second place, is Giants GM Dave Gettleman responding to a question about the strengths of the 2019 draft by saying, in part, “The wides are thick.” Meaning there are a lot of wide receivers on the Giants board. I just love the way he said it.

I have been a Dave Gettleman defender in the past. I cannot lie and say otherwise, but the rose is off the bloom for me. He seems to use fun words that sportswriters enjoy writing down (Hog Mollies, Blue Gooses) and then drafts players that end up not panning out. If I'm a Giants fan, the guy who drafted Kelvin Benjamin and Devin Funchess better not be talking about "thick" receivers or else I'm afraid I may get a thick receiver. Gettleman can say it in a fun manner, but I do hope he's learned his lesson. The fact he traded the most dynamic wide receiver in the NFL, while swallowing dead money, tells me otherwise though. 

10. I think these are my other thoughts of the week:

a. God help our country.

Thanks Peter. Your contribution is appreciated. Maybe Donald Trump should tell all of his advisors not to show up to Cabinet and departmental meetings and that will fix things. After all, he just needs to get full control over the process. It's only fair. 

e. Story of the Week: The Rise and Fall of a New York Shock Jock, by Nick Paumgarten of the New Yorker. Great story about the downfall of Craig Carton, who teamed with Boomer Esiason on New York sports station WFAN’s morning show. Man, gambling is a one-way street to hell. Just read this piece. And an excellent job of taking us deep inside the story by Paumgarten.

f. “Are you Craig Carton?”

g. “Yes I am.”

h. “You’re under arrest.”

a. Why.

b. Was this.

c. Four points on the outline.

d. When it is simply one point that Peter wanted to mention

e. ?

i. My wife and I watch “Jeopardy” most nights. 

What? I'm so shocked about this. I bet Peter watches "Seinfeld" re-runs when he's not watching "Jeopardy." It's so outside the realm of Peter's demographic to watch "Jeopardy" and "Seinfeld" though.

We’ve been riveted in the last couple of weeks by James Holzhauer, the incredibly intelligent, lighning-fast-with-the-buzzer champion who already has the five most lucrative winning shows of all time. Holzhauer is a professional sports gambler, according to the show.

Now Peter, I've heard that gambling is a one-way street to hell. Maybe go talk to the person that said that. He's brilliant and asked God to help our country so you know for sure he's trying to help out.

j. Joe Pinsker of The Atlantic with an interesting story about how Holzhauer, essentially, is so brilliant his games are not fair fights.

k. When the challengers get introduced at the start of the show, they’re lambs led to the slaughter. I’ve never seen anything like it.

It sounds like gambling is no longer a one-way street to hell. It's almost like it depends on the person doing the gambling. 

l. Coffeenerdness: For some reason that is foreign to me, because it’s never happened in my 61 years on earth, I have been getting allergy attacks. 

Maybe you have been gambling too much and your body is telling you that it's a one-way street to hell, unless you are good at it, in which case you get to be on "Jeopardy" and people like you will be in awe of you.

The Adieu Haiku

My mock draft stinks. Stinks!
Over/under on direct
hits: Four point five. Hmmmm.


It's not shocking that "Sports Illustrated" didn't fight tooth and nail to keep the Adieu Haiku like they fought to keep the name "MMQB."

Speaking of stinks, I wish that Peter knew the Adieu Haiku stinks. I mean, he ended this haiku with "Hmmmm." Not very poetic.

Thursday, June 25, 2015

2 comments 2015 NBA Mock Draft

My mock draft last year got all messed up in the beginning as it seems most of my NBA mock drafts do. So I figured I would go ahead and show how stupid I am for at least one more year and try to post a 2015 NBA mock draft. Last year no team really screwed up my mock like the Cavs did in 2013 (thanks again, guys), I just made bad predictions. It's par for the course I guess. This year the 76ers may have another chance at drafting a center and there are some quality foreign-born players in the draft, which we all know makes Chad Ford pee in his pants with excitement. I'm guessing I will get five picks right this year, which could end up being a record of some sort. I'm aiming high, just so the fall will be harder. Undoubtedly my picks will be ruined after the Lakers' pick. Heck, the Lakers may even screw up the rest of my mock.

It's tough, because I want my picks to be correct, but I also understand if I follow the mock drafts out there then my picks will end up being wrong. Mock drafts are very rarely extremely accurate. So I am going to miss on some picks because I didn't follow the mocks, while I may hit on other picks based on how my mock is falling. Guessing is fun until you want your guesses to be correct. 

1. Minnesota Timberwolves- Karl-Anthony Towns, PF

Here is my deal with this pick. Try to hold on to the roller coaster of my opinion. This is the right pick. Minnesota is the perfect place for Jahlil Okafor, so this is a big loss for him. Okafor needs to be paired initially with a rim protector and I have a huge man-crush on Gorgui Dieng. I think he would be the perfect guy to pair with Okafor. Towns is probably the right pick here, but if I were the Timberwolves I would be tempted to go with a player who has lower potential, but has a great offensive game to match up with Andrew Wiggins developing skill set. That's Okafor. Towns is an upside pick, a pick for good defense and maybe the right one. I would choose Okafor. I'm not mad at them for taking Towns because it makes sense as well. It's not the wrong pick, just not the pick I would make.

2. Los Angeles Lakers- Jahlil Okafor, C

It's tempting to go with D'Angelo Russell here, but if you look at his numbers in college, he tended to struggle going up against good teams. Of course, there wasn't many other great players on the Ohio State squad to help Russell, so he can be forgiven for that. The two big concerns about Okafor are overblown in my opinion. Conditioning and defense. He's a 19 year kid, so his conditioning issues are overblown. Many true centers would have conditioning issues at the age of 19. It's how it goes, but the evolution of the NBA away from a back-to-the-basket center has sort of covered up for this. "True" back-to-the-basket centers aren't in peak physical shape at 19 years of age. He did play 30 minutes per game at Duke, so it's not like he hasn't played bigger minutes. Defense is an issue, but defense can be taught. Again, Okafor is 19 years old and hasn't had to play defense because he's so good on offense. I don't think he will be a great defensive player, but he will end up being good enough. Pairing him with a shot blocker initially is a good move. That means, don't pair with Julius Randle. Oh well. Okafor has some professional post moves and he is an excellent passer. The Duke offense ran through him, but it didn't have to go THROUGH him if that makes sense. He was effective in college when not taking shots and still getting touches every time down the floor. I apologize for the length, but I have strong feelings about Okafor. He may not be Hakeem Olajuwon, but he's a center who will be able to score the basketball in the post. Those are hard to find. I know he seems to lack athleticism and upside, but he can play basketball.

3. Philadelphia 76ers- D'Angelo Russell, PG/SG

Here is where things get shaky. I have no idea who the 76ers may pick. Would they pick Okafor if he fell to them? No, because then the Celtics would trade up for Okafor (right?????????). I'm going with consensus here because the 76ers need guards. I know Sam Hinkie is "accumulating assets" but Tony Wroten, Hollis Thompson, and JaKarr Sampson are currently projected to be among the players at the guard spot for the 76ers. They need guards and though I do have some reserves about Russell that I can't pinpoint exactly, he's the sort of Steph Curry-type (not in terms of shooting ability) which teams are going to covet. The Sixers could take Emmanuel Mudiay and shock the world, but from the trade of Michael Carter-Williams I think it's clear they had their fill of taller point guards.

4. New York Knicks- Kristaps Porzingis, PF/C

Now it gets even fuzzier. If the Knicks even keep this pick, who will they select? It seems the Knicks value versatility and Kristaps Porzingis appears to be versatile from every scouting report I have read about him. He can protect the rim and allow Carmelo to play the power forward position. Of course, everything I know about him is based on the hype train that has been running through the Interwebs and I have never actually seen him play. I hope he fails miserably because his name is hard to spell. Also, Knicks fans are not going to like the idea of the team taking a foreign-born player as Frederic Weis is still fresh in their minds. I'm sure Chad Ford loves Kristaps Porzingis. Indeed, he does. Ford thinks every team should draft Porzingis. I'm sure Ford will be outraged if Porzingis goes anywhere past #7. Based on Ford liking Porzingis I'll go ahead and say this is a bad pick for the Knicks.

5. Orlando Magic- Justice Winslow, SF

The Magic just traded Luke Ridnour yesterday. WHAT DOES THIS MEAN FOR THIS PICK? I may have made this pick simply because I want to see Oladipo, Payton, and Winslow play together. I am throwing Willie Cauley-Stein in here as a wild card selection. The Magic need a rim protector and they may as well just admit that drafting Aaron Gordon probably will end up being a huge mistake. Just give up on him prematurely, that's the ticket. I think it would be interesting to see Cauley-Stein in this spot, but he has less offensive game than Aaron Gordon did coming out of college, so I can't see the Magic choosing an athletic dude without any semblance of offensive game twice in the lottery. Winslow will be one of the three best players in this draft. I believe that. I think he has a brighter future than Okafor has. He can guard multiple positions, is a good shooter and a great competitor (as long as the refs continue to allow him to run over the opposition without calling a charge).

6. Sacramento Kings- Emmanuel Mudiay, PG

George Karl likes his point guards and Emmanuel Mudiay plays the position of point guard, so that seems like an ideal fit. I think Karl is going to want to take a point guard considered a talent like Mudiay is considered to be, simply so he has someone running the offense Karl wants to run effectively. I do not like Emmanuel Mudiay all that much. He's a slasher who is a bad foul shooter, he's not a great shooter, and he has people around him who give him mediocre advice (I get going to China to play for money reasons, but I think attending SMU would have been the best choice). I'm not a fan, but Mudiay has the "upside" NBA teams like, so he goes #6 in the draft.

7. Denver Nuggets- Mario Hezonja, SF

This is another foreign-born player that I don't know very much about. I know he is confident in his abilities and the Nuggets need a player at his position. He supposedly has the personality required to in tough situations, and unlike some foreign-born players, has had success overseas prior to coming to the United States. I wish I knew more about him. I know he seems to be confident and that is something the Nuggets can build on, right?

8. Detroit Pistons- Sam Dekker, SF

Obviously these are all guesses, but I'm really guessing here that the Pistons would favor Dekker's athletic ability and shooting over the "upside" of Stanley Johnson and any other player who conceivably could be considered to be a smarter pick. I'm a little torn on Dekker. I see the potential and he had a great NCAA Tournament. I think this would be a little early to take him though. Stan Van Gundy will value Dekker's height and ability to play the stretch-four spot with Drummond at center. Maybe he's the American version of Hedo Turkoglu. At worse, Dekker can play small forward and Ilaysova can play the four spot, which means the Pistons still have height and outside shooting to surround Drummond with.

9. Charlotte HornCats- Stanley Johnson, SF

I hear the HornCats need shooting. This is probably why every mock draft but a few have Devin Booker mocked in this spot. I'm going in a different direction though. I think the HornCats are going to go with Stanley Johnson, even with the trade of Gerald Henderson and Noah Vonleh. I do not like Stanley Johnson, as I feel he is more potential than anything else. He could turn into something great and with Michael Jordan calling out his team's talent level recently it makes sense to me the team doesn't go with a guy who is just a great shooter like Devin Booker is.

10. Miami Heat- Willie Cauley-Stein, C

Cauley-Stein is an absolute freak of an athlete. I love watching play, but also have no clue what to do with him. He's a center, but he can guard multiple positions, but he also has very, very little offensive game. That offensive game could come in time though and this is a BPA pick since it doesn't appear the Heat need another center with Hassan Whiteside breaking out. That being said, Cauley-Stein is also insurance against Whiteside wanting to be overpaid next summer (and who wouldn't want to be overpaid?) and Whiteside ending up being a one year wonder.

11. Indiana Pacers- Cameron Payne, PG

I don't think the Pacers will be picking in this spot, because I believe they will do what they can to move up. This is another pick I'm torn on. If the mock draft goes the way I have it going, I don't know if the Pacers try to get Myles Turner in this spot. I probably don't like Devin Booker more than other teams do, so I should mock him here. Larry Bird has seen how Lillard and Payton went from small schools to success in the NBA and the biggest knock against Payne is that he comes from a school that isn't huge. I don't think this will matter to Bird. It doesn't matter to me either. Payne poured in 23-7-4 against Xavier and 23-4-6 and 20-6-10 against Belmont. Those were pretty good teams last year. He can be a starter in the NBA, despite "only" playing for Murray State.

12. Utah Jazz- Frank Kaminsky, PF/C

It's so hard not to mock Frank Kaminsky in this spot. I in no way think Kaminsky is the best talent available, but I do believe he fits what the Jazz want to do. I probably am incorrect in having Kaminsky fall this far. Adding him to a lineup featuring Derrick Favors and Rudy Gobert would be a problem for other teams, especially if Gordon Hayward is playing the small forward spot in this lineup. The Jazz need a big man off the bench to shoot and provide a different look. I don't think Trey Lyles is that guy and it's too early to reach for a "true" point guard. Kaminksy will be a productive shooter in the NBA, but I'm not sure he'll be more than that.

13. Phoenix Suns- Myles Turner, C

It's hard to fairly evaluate Myles Turner because he played for Rick Barnes. Rick Barnes is not a good head coach, so is it Barnes' fault that Turner didn't quite turn into the freshmen he was supposed to be? Turner runs like he's 50 years old, but he can shoot the three-point shot* and block shots. I warned the Suns against drafting Alex Len a few years ago, so it's clear they don't listen to me. Myles Turner can block shots though, so hopefully he'll stop hanging around the perimeter in the NBA and get on the low block where I think he has the best chance of succeeding. To me, Turner is a stretch four that isn't good at running the floor, an okay shooter and he's sort of soft (in my opinion). It's a wasted pick, but I can see why the Suns would make it.

*He CAN, but he only shot 27% and I don't see any reason that he should be hanging around the three-point line as he is already 240 pounds and his body should fill out more as he ages.

14. Oklahoma City Thunder- Devin Booker, SG

Another tough choice here. The Thunder were giving regular minutes to Anthony Morrow last year and Morrow has one skill, shooting the three-point shot. Why not take the best three-point shooter in the draft and see if he can turn into something more than that along the way? The reason I say it is a tough choice is there are guys with higher ceilings available who could very well turn out to be great NBA players in time (Lyles, Oubre), inside guys who can provide rebounding and toughness (Harrell, Portis), as well as Justin Anderson who is a great all-around player. The Thunder needed bench help for most of the year last year and Devin Booker at worst will be an excellent shooter, maybe another Anthony Morrow.

15. Atlanta Hawks- Bobby Portis, PF

I'm assuming the Hawks are the Spurs of the East Coast. They like guys who play defense, know their role and can do several things well (of course, who doesn't like that?). There is no way the Hawks keep Carroll and Millsap, so they are going to need some more frontcourt depth. The Cavs seemed to kill them on the boards in the playoffs, while Portis isn't ever going to be accused of not providing enough energy and effort. It seems Portis fits what the Hawks are looking for in a player, though again, there are guys with higher upsides available. If the Hawks are wanting to go in that direction then I think Kelly Oubre or even R.J. Hunter could be the pick.

16. Boston Celtics- Kevin Looney, PF

The good news is the Celtics have a lot of options because they have quite a few holes in the lineup. Their whole starting lineup seems to consist of guys you would want on your team, but possibly not starting for a playoff team. I don't think the Celtics will be making this pick in this spot, but if they do, then there is a glaring need at small forward and power forward. I'm neutral on Looney. He's a good rebounder and is a good scorer, but he's also skinny. Weight can be put on and I think if the Celtics make this pick then they could go with a guy who I think has been slightly underappreciated in this draft.

17. Milwaukee Bucks- Montrezl Harrell, PF

For some reason, this selection makes a lot of sense to me. The Bucks need frontcourt help and Harrell has a chance to be an excellent rebounder in the pros. The Bucks have some guys up front, but I'm not sure they have a frontcourt player with the toughness that Harrell possesses. He's probably not going to be a star, but he's a violent dunker and a nice counter to what the Bucks currently have on the roster.

18. Houston Rockets- Rashad Vaughn, SG

Eh, Rashad Vaughn. I mean, I guess. He seems to be like a volume scorer who doesn't mind chucking up three points. Granted, he hit many of them in college, but I wonder if he's worth a first round pick or not. I've already accepted that Daryl Morey is smarter than I ever will be, so I should probably just assume I'm wrong. Players can improve defensively and Vaughn would definitely fit on this Rockets team in that he is a great shooter, but I just don't see him becoming worth a Top-20 draft pick.

19. Washington Wizards- Jerian Grant, PG

The Wizards need some more guard help and Grant can play both guard positions. As much as I love Ramon Sessions and Garrett Temple (I'm kidding, I HATE Garrett Temple), the Wizards could use another guard that is capable of scoring. Grant is a little older than the other NBA prospects, but I think he can at least be a reliable bench player. Now that I have said that, he'll be released in early October by whatever team drafts him in the second round. 

20. Toronto Raptors- Trey Lyles, PF

There is no logical reason for Trey Lyles to fall this far. If he is available here, then the Raptors should jump on him. Lyles played out of position nearly all year for Kentucky. This affected the perception of him in this draft. He is not a small forward, he is a power forward, and the Raptors have skated by on James Johnson, Amir Williams and Patrick Patterson at the position over the last few years. If Lyles is gone, which I reasonably expect he will when the board shakes out, then I envision them taking a defensive-oriented small forward like Hollis-Jefferson or Justin Anderson. Speaking of Justin Anderson...

21. Dallas Mavericks- Justin Anderson, SG/SF

I'm not sure shooting guard or small forward is a popular position for the Mavericks to choose in the first round, but with Justin Anderson the Mavs may be having some minor flashbacks to how Josh Howard worked out for them late in the first round a few years ago...minus the drug issues of course. Virginia really struggled without Anderson last year when he was injured and it wasn't hard to see why. He's a much improved shooter and can really play defense. If all goes wrong for him on offense, then his defense will keep him on NBA rosters. He can play small forward and allow Chandler Parsons to play the power forward spot in smaller lineups.

22. Chicago Bulls- R.J. Hunter, SG

I didn't really love the Doug McDermott pick (or trade as the case may be) last year, so I'll just mock another good shooter I don't really like to the Bulls again. The Bulls could certainly use both of them, and I like McDermott more than Hunter. R.J. Hunter is a shooter who isn't really even that good at shooting. He averages 7 three-point attempts per game and makes 35.4% of them, including only making 30.5% of his three-point attempts this past year. That's...not great. He shoots almost 50% from two-point range, but half of his shots are from three-point range. Maybe it was the team around him at Georgia State which causes defenses to focus on him and him force shots, though I doubt it on a mid-major team that had Kevin Ware and Ryan Harrow. I don't expect Hunter to be in the NBA in 3-4 years.

23. Portland Trailblazers- Christian Wood, PF

If the Blazers lose LaMarcus Aldridge, then drafting a skinny kid from UNLV probably won't make them feel very good, but even if they do re-sign Aldridge then they will need more depth at the power forward position. I may be having Wood get drafted a bit early here, but he made dramatic improvement from his freshman to sophomore year at UNLV. I think Wood could be a contributor to the Blazers if they are patient enough with him. He's a modern big man, meaning he can shoot and block shots, but isn't at all a back-to-the-basket type of player. Unfortunately, he weighs like 46 pounds, so he needs to hit the weight room and then hope for some patience on the Blazers' part. 

24. Cleveland Cavaliers- Rondae Hollis-Jefferson, SF

There's no telling who LeBron will pick here. I kid, I kid. In seriousness, Hollis-Jefferson is going to have a Tony Allen-like existence in the NBA. He's an excellent defender, and while his offensive game needs some help, he would fit in well with the Cavs due to his great defense and versatility. He's not going to be a star, but I think being like Tony Allen is his ceiling. I think I could handle that if I were the Cavs.

25. Memphis Grizzlies- Kelly Oubre, SG/SF

Oubre needed to stay in school one more year. I think if he had done that then he would have been a lottery pick for sure. As it is, he's probably going to be taken outside of the lottery. Bill Self should have chained Oubre in the basement and forced him to stay one more year. He couldn't crack the lineup for a portion of the season and never totally lived up to expectations. He has the potential to be that type of wing player the Grizzlies are in need of having though. When he cracked the starting lineup for the Jayhawks, he scored and showed what he is capable of. Still, one more year would have made him more ready for the NBA and increased his stock. As it is, I don't see him being drafted in the Top 15 and I don't think he's ready for the NBA at this point.

26. San Antonio Spurs- Tyus Jones, PG

It seems easy to just say the Spurs will pick an international player here. I won't cheat and pick an international player though. Terry Rozier will not be the pick here. I can just feel it because Rozier is too much of a wild card for Gregg Popovich. This is probably a fantasy pick for me, because I think Jones would fit in well with the Spurs. Jones will never have the ideal NBA body and athleticism, but he's a smart player who has shown he isn't afraid of big moments. I think he will make a really good backup point guard for a contending team. I question if he will be able to get in the lane as a pro like he did in college and I think being a poor man's Tony Parker (albeit being a better shooter than Parker was at 19 years of age) is probably Jones' ceiling.

27. Los Angeles Lakers- Delon Wright, PG/SG

Delon Wright is the typical guy coming out of college who is going to fall not due to his skill set, but because he is older than most prospects and doesn't have the ceiling most other draft prospects have. I have a hard time figuring him out, because I don't know if he will adapt very well to the NBA game and thrive or be overmatched. His improvement from year-to-year at Utah leads me to believe Wright can be a bench contributor in the NBA, but he has to continue to improve his shooting and get used to not being the main facilitator on offense. The first round may be a bit early for him.

28. Boston Celtics- Robert Upshaw, C

Anybody but a Syracuse center. That's all I ask. Again, I don't think the Celtics will be making this pick, but if they did then this is an area where taking a troubled talent like Upshaw may make sense. After all, the Celtics have wasted picks on big men like Fab Melo and Colton Iverson, so they may as well spend one on a player who has actual talent, yet is a dipshit and keeps getting kicked off teams. The shot-blocking talent is there and the Celtics desperately need a rim protector. If Upshaw isn't worth the risk here in the first round, then the Celtics may choose to take him in the second round where he doesn't have a guaranteed contract.

29. Brooklyn Nets- Cliff Alexander, PF

Alexander was a highly touted player coming into his freshman year at Kansas. Then he ran into some issues trying to get time on a deep Kansas team and also ended up on not playing in the NCAA Tournament due to eligibility issues. Rest assured, he has tremendous potential and at the #29 spot in the first round the Nets should take a player with potential to help out on their front line. In 17.6 minutes as a freshman, Alexander averaged 7.1 points, 5.3 rebounds and 1.3 blocks. He may never be any good in the NBA, and I hate drafting players on potential, but for a Nets team with salary issues taking a talent like Alexander late in the first round is a good risk.

30. Golden State Warriors- Olivier Hanlan, PG/SG

This is admittedly a shot in the dark. Of course, most of these picks in my mock are shots in the dark. The Warriors could use another combo guard with Barbosa and Livingston both becoming free agents (I believe) and I think Hanlan is an underrated prospect. Look at his stats. If he puts those up at a school that isn't Boston College then I think he would be considered a first round pick. He is slightly turnover-prone, but he can get to the rim and since the Warriors like to spell Curry for a longer period of time (compared to other star players) then a scorer combo guard like Hanlan will fit in well.

Feel free to mock my picks after they are all wrong or a big trade ruins my entire mock draft.

Thursday, April 30, 2015

5 comments 2015 NFL Mock Draft

I don't know why I insist on posting a mock draft every single year. I think I just like guessing in the slim, slim hope that I will look smart. This is last year's mock draft I posted. My favorite part is how I mock Peter King saying the upcoming draft is just so incredibly unpredictable, as if this doesn't happen every year. If an unpredictable draft happens every year then doesn't that mean the draft is actually predictable? Peter is doing it again this year, saying how there are no sure things in this draft like there have been in the past. This is, of course, revisionist history. Without further ado, here are my attempts to guess at the draft order, and yet again, I won't predict trades. This thing will be torn apart by the first trade, I do realize that.

1. Tampa Bay Buccaneers- Jameis Winston, QB

I feel like if Jameis Winston was more well-liked then his struggled with interceptions would have been written off as resulting from having lost so much offensive talent around him at Florida State after the national title in 2014. Winston would be tagged with the "he's just a winner" label regarding how he may struggle in games, but then will come up big when his team needs him. Interestingly, I don't see either the excuse or the label given to him. I'm notoriously bad at judging QB's coming out of college (except Blaine Gabbert...I never liked him), but other than what seems to be a semi-long windup I think Winston really has a chance to be a good QB. But again, I really didn't like the Cam Newton pick. There is sort of a "curse of Jimbo Fisher QB's" thing that should bother me (Ponder/Manuel/Russell) more than it does. And yes, Winston has growing up to do. Most athletes coming to the pros from college do. At least I'm getting this pick right.

2. Tennessee Titans- Marcus Mariota, QB

I'm dying to pick Leonard Williams here just to be different in the hopes I nail the pick, but this is supposed to be who I think each team will pick. The Titans have been waving this pick around, but I think if they like Mariota as well as it's claimed they do then they will draft him here. I can't imagine what offer would make the Titans move out of this spot if they really think Mariota is a franchise QB. Heck, would three first round picks be enough to move out of this spot if Mariota was only a Top-10 QB? Probably not for me. It's a quarterback league.

3. Jacksonville Jaguars-Vic Beasley, OLB/DE

I don't think the Jaguars are going to keep this pick, so it will probably be another team picking. I'm not entirely sure where Beasley fits in on a defense honestly, but he's the type of speed freak who can get to the quarterback. That sounds like a good role. He's not great against the run supposedly. Still, David Caldwell seems to consistently pull some bullshit in the draft and I think the talk of Cooper or Leonard Williams here is a way to get another team to move up so the Jags can draft Beasley a little later in the upper first round and get a pick or two out of it. I don't know if Beasley will be an All-Pro guy, but ESPN not having him as a first round pick is absolutely ridiculous.

4. Oakland Raiders- Leonard Williams, DE

Jack Del Rio is an defensive guy and the Raiders have quite a few needs. I think they should draft a receiver here, but it seems the Raiders like Leonard Williams a lot more than I do. I don't think he's going to be terrible, but I'm not sure he'll be the force that the Raiders are going to want. I will say this, not giving Derek Carr more to work with is a mistake. This isn't quite as deep of a receiver class as last year's draft and I would take White or Cooper.

5. Washington Redskins- Dante Fowler Jr, DE/OLB

I don't really love this pick for the Redskins. I am not sure the Redskins keep this pick, so it may not matter. I don't know who to pick. My gut says Amari Cooper, but the Redskins lost Orakpo in free agency and they probably feel like they don't need a #1 receiver with Garcon and Jackson on the roster. I'm not saying that's right, but Fowler will help give the Redskins a stronger pass rush and they can worry about other spots later in the draft.

6. New York Jets- Kevin White, WR

I prefer White to Cooper, so maybe that's affecting my decision. Yes, Todd Bowles is a defensive guy, but he also coached in Arizona where he saw what having Larry Fitzgerald and a strong group of receivers can do to help a quarterback that isn't so talented. The Jets have upgraded the defense in the draft and they are giving whoever the quarterback is a fighting chance with White/Marshall/Decker as the three-wide depth chart. This is good news for Geno Smith if it happens. Maybe he'll forget he's in the NFL and think he's back at WVU.

7. Chicago Bears- Danny Shelton, DT

I feel like I know John Fox fairly well and a defense that can't stop the run won't last long when he's the head coach. He had Kris Jenkins in Carolina and Terrance Knighton in Denver, while the Bears need a run-stopper. Fox prefers his defense to rush four at the passer and get to the quarterback that way (which coach doesn't prefer that, but Fox seems to really prefer that). His first pick as Bears coach will be a defensive pick me thinks and he loves his run-stoppers who can also get pressure on the quarterback up the middle.

8. Atlanta Falcons- Brandon Scherff, OT/OG

This is a tough pick because the Falcons need pass rushers in the worst way, but they also need to shore up an offensive line that got beaten up last year. I am not sure the Falcons won't try to trade up more than they will try to trade back and get another pick to move out of the #8 spot. It's tough for the Falcons that Gregory and Ray have off-the-field issues because they could use that talent. Maybe they still take one of them here. I say protect Matt Ryan and find a pass rusher later in the draft. And yes, I know pass rusher is a big need, but the Falcons were beaten up on the offensive line last year.

9. New York Giants- Ereck Flowers, T

I am going to hate myself (okay, not really) if Amari Cooper is the pick here. I really, really want to mock Cooper here, but the eternal fight for the Giants to improve their offensive or defensive line takes precedence in what I think the Giants will do. I wouldn't be surprised to see Randy Gregory get picked in this spot. I read on Walter Football there is another issue that NFL teams know about that the public/media doesn't know about regarding Gregory, but I also read this on Walter Football, so who knows if it's the truth? Maybe the issue is that scouts think Gregory is stupendously stupid, which is what was reported yesterday. Either way, I think Gregory is absolutely astoundingly talented and could be the pick here if the Giants have the balls. So yes, I basically just sort of picked two guys in this spot and actually picked Flowers. Sue me.

10. St. Louis Rams- Andrus Peat, T

Peter King, who basically works for the Rams it seems to me sometimes, thinks the Rams are taking a tackle. Greg Robinson did not work out in his rookie year like the Rams thought he would. This doesn't seem like the right pick here, but I can't figure out who else the Rams would select if they didn't go offensive tackle. I'm not feeling a wide receiver and the Rams really don't have a ton of other huge needs without reaching. They have to protect Nick Foles, so Peat is the choice.

11. Minnesota Vikings- Devante Parker, WR

It's fashionable to say the Vikings will pick a CB here, but with the team saying this is a big year for Corradelle Patterson (that may be how he spells his first name, maybe not, I'm too lazy to look it up), I can't help but think the Vikings find a corner later and give their franchise quarterback another offensive weapon to work with. Maybe it will be an offensive lineman, but as you can tell, I'm a big fan of giving a quarterback offensive players in the draft. The Colts proved how this can work wonders. Plus, Parker and Bridgewater already have great chemistry.

12. Cleveland Browns- Amari Cooper, WR

So the Browns would run to the podium to make this pick, right? Maybe not, but I would. The Browns still need wide receivers and I can't think how Cooper fell this far in my mock. If the Browns are gutsy they would take Todd Gurley. I really, really think he's going to be a stud and their running game was awful last year. Maybe they are a little shy about taking a RB so early after the Trent Richardson Experiment and wide receiver is really a much greater need.

13. New Orleans Saints- Bud/Alvin/Simon/You & Me Dupree DE/OLB

I'm not sure what his name will be in the NFL, whether it is Bud or Alvin, but the Saints need defenders in Rob Ryan's defense. Supposedly this is too far for Dupree to fall, but we will see. Knowing Sean Payton, he'll draft Todd Gurley in this spot and force me to cheer against a guy who I think will be an absolute stud. In my mind, Dupree will be the guy.

14. Miami Dolphins- Todd Gurley, RB

Trae Waynes is just sitting there, begging to be taken. He's considered to be among the top corners in the draft, so I could easily see him being taken by the Dolphins. They could go with an offensive lineman too, but this is the part of the draft where the pick each team takes will be based partly on need, but mostly on what players are available. There are a lot of players with similar talent levels in this part of the draft. Todd Gurley would give the Dolphins the type of consistent running game that they have lacked and he'll be Ryan Tannehill's best friend because of that.

15. San Francisco 49ers- Trae Waynes, CB

I have seen Arik Armstead mocked here repeatedly. I can't help but think it's going to be another player simply because of that. It will be a defensive player if you ask me, so the questions becomes which defensive player. The 49ers lost two corners in the offseason and Waynes is one of the three best corners in the draft (or one of the three guys considered to be the best). I think this pick makes too much sense for it to happen. I wouldn't mind mocking a linebacker like Eric Kendricks here, but I think the 49ers feel they can get a guy later in the draft like they got Borland/Bowman at the linebacker spot in the third round.

16. Houston Texans- La'el Collins, OT/G

Man, this is a tough pick because I've seen a bunch of receivers mocked here. I always think that means a team has done a great job with a smokescreen and won't choose a receiver at all. I think the Texans could use offensive line help and if they don't choose a wide receiver here then upgrading the tackle or guard spot with Collins could be the next choice. Currently, the Texans depth chart on the inside of their line could use an upgrade and Collins can play multiple spots on the line.

17. San Diego Chargers- Cameron Erving, G/C

It's tempting to take a running back here, but the Chargers really need to upgrade the interior of the offensive line. I know, I know, two straight interior linemen in my mock draft. This will never happen because the NFL likes shiny prospects that are difference makers and interior linemen are boring...until you don't have any good ones. It's a good pick too since running backs can be had later and Ameer Abdullah could be available in the second round.

18. Kansas City Chiefs- Nelson Agholor, WR

The Chiefs were awful at wide receiver last year. I don't want to put too much of the blame on Alex Smith, but I would probably like to put more on him than others are putting on him. At some point, a lack of touchdowns from the receivers also reflects on the quarterback. Andy Reid does what he wants and upgrading the receivers shouldn't be done simply because the Chiefs overpaid Jeremy Maclin. I can see Andy Reid loving the thought of Agholor and Maclin on either side to keep the defenses honest and catch the ball in space.

19. Cleveland Browns- Arik Armstead, DT/DE

I think this is a good choice for the Browns here. Armstead is from the "unproven, but look at his size!" mold, but he would provide some versatility for the Browns along the defensive line. He's huge and could make a good edge rusher or interior guy on passing downs for the Browns. I don't believe the Browns will go offensive line with this pick, but my picks are probably going to be 80% wrong anyway.

20. Philadelphia Eagles- Jake Fisher, T

Yes, he went to Oregon so it's a cliche to say the Eagles will pick him. I simply don't believe that Chip Kelly will pick a wide receiver here because he's proven this offseason he believes he can find guys who can fit his offensive scheme and make it work. It won't work without an athletic offensive line to block for Sam Bradford and Fisher is used to play in up-tempo offenses at Oregon. I think Fisher will play guard since the Eagles are hell-bent on getting rid of Evan Mathis. Of course, I should expect Chip Kelly to go with a running back here or take a guy projected to be a fourth round pick.

21. Cincinnati Bengals- Randy Gregory, DE/OLB

One of the more underrated aspects of the Bengals defensive decline last year was the lack of a pass rush. They got Michael Johnson back after being on loan to the Buccaneers for a year, but Randy Gregory is the best pass rusher available at this spot and I don't think the Bengals get shy about picking him. Weirdly, I can see them taking a wide receiver in this spot as well. After last year in the playoff game against Colts, it was obvious that if half of the receiver depth chart gets injured then Dalton is going to struggle. Of course, that can be said for nearly any QB.

22. Pittsburgh Steelers- Byron Jones, CB

The Steelers have had success identifying really good receivers later in the draft, and while it may be tempting to pick another position of need on defense, they need corners badly. I think it will be Byron Jones over Kevin Johnson. Every year the Steelers seem to have a guy fall to them and I can't figure out who that will be this year. So I go with need and one of the best players still available.

23. Detroit Lions- D.J. Humphries, T

I have no idea who the Lions will pick. Melvin Gordon makes too much sense for it to happen and I don't know if the Lions are really going to spend a first round pick on a DT after letting two first round DT's go in free agency. I'm tempting to mock a cornerback here, but they need to keep the offensive line strong and they can start Humphries at RT if necessary and then move him over to LT at some point in the future.
 
24. Arizona Cardinals- Grady Jarrett, DT

Not a terrible position for the Cardinals to be in. There are a couple offensive linemen available, Melvin Gordon is available, defensive linemen and there are cornerbacks to choose from. Again, this is the part of the draft where there are guys who seem to all be similarly talented. Gordon is probably the obvious pick at first glance, but the Cardinals are going into the season with interior linemen that I'm not confident will hold up against the run. Jarrett is a big guy who may not be an ideal nose tackle, but he can play end or nose tackle in the Cards' 3-4 defense.

25. Carolina Panthers- Kevin Johnson, CB

The Panthers GM goes with best player available, so I would have to guess who I think is the best player on their board. It doesn't help the team has needs at a ton of positions. They've been interested in drafting safeties over the past few years (but just not done it), so Landon Collins could make sense and the GM stated he likes where they are at with wide receivers (I could like it more, but whatever, I'm not the GM). They have shown a ton of interest in Shaq Thompson and Thomas Davis isn't getting younger. I almost want to make that the pick, but I think the 4-5 tackles the team wants are off the board and they go with the highest rated player at a position of need. The Panthers could use this pick on any position except QB or TE.

26. Baltimore Ravens- Breshad Perriman, WR

I think I mocked a receiver to the Ravens last year as well. I'll just keep doing it until they draft one. They lost Torrey Smith and Steve Smith can't play forever. If Perriman falls this far then I see the Ravens taking him and worrying about their cornerback need a little later. It's popular to have Melvin Gordon get taken here, but I think the Ravens can get a running back to pair with Justin Forsett later on. Of course the draw of a guy like Marcus Peters could end up being strong.

27. Dallas Cowboys- Eric Kendricks, LB

The Cowboys got desperate at linebacker last year and I think the need to shore up the position for the inevitable Sean Lee injury causes them to choose Kendricks over other defensive players in this spot. Melvin Gordon is another popular pick for the Cowboys, but I file that under "conventional wisdom" that seems to be be so rarely correct. So I'm taking a guess (which all of these picks are guesses) the Cowboys go with Kendricks.

28. Denver Broncos- Maxx Williams, TE

Most mocks I looked at had the Broncos taking an offensive linemen in this spot. I think that's a definite need for them. Still, I can't help but mock a tight end in this spot to the Broncos. Kubiak loves using his tight ends and Manning likes throwing to his tight ends. Adding a talent like Maxx Williams to the offense could help make up for the loss of Julius Thomas and it makes sense to me based on the head coach and quarterback's wants. It's getting almost time for Manning to retire, so I have to think the Broncos will want to keep him upright, but also make sure the tight end spot is taken care of.

29. Indianapolis Colts- Cedric Ogbuehi, T

Landon Collins is the most popular pick of popular picks in this spot. The Colts do need safety help, but I'm not sure that comes before making sure Andrew Luck stays protected. Ogbuehi is coming off an injury, but if he had not suffered that injury then he could have been a Top-15 pick. The Colts have needs on defense, but Ryan Grigson has reached there before in the draft, but keeping Luck upright and healthy is of vital importance. It would be fun to see Melvin Gordon taken here, but I think the Colts will value a tackle higher.

30. Green Bay Packers- Jordan Phillips, DT

The Packers need corners too, but the way my mock is falling they could end up grabbing one at the end of the second round. But the Packers were gored by Marshawn Lynch last year and they need a rotation of interior defensive linemen to prevent this from happening again. Phillips fits that bill and the Packers can take care of their corner needs later in the draft. Besides, a good pass rush and preventing the other team from running the ball always makes the corners look better anyway.

31. New Orleans Saints- Melvin Gordon, RB

I don't see Gordon falling out of the first round and the Saints haven't been shy about drafting a running back in the first round before. Plus, they have churned through running backs in the past and drafted Mark Ingram with the hopes that he would stop this from occurring in New Orleans this season. Maybe not ironically, Melvin Gordon could replace Ingram and be that guy who stops a three or four-headed running back attack. I could see the Saints going with a receiver in this spot or possibly an offensive lineman. But the lure of getting Gordon probably would cause the Saints to select him.

32. New England Patriots- Marcus Peters, CB*

The Patriots seem to need cornerbacks and I don't see them selecting Landon Collins here. They need interior linemen as well, so Malcolm Brown could be in play. Most likely, the Patriots will trade this pick and move back a little, but if they keep the pick then I think Marcus Peters' talent will be too much to turn down. Yes, I am going with the cliche "The Patriots can take care of a troubled player and turn him on the right path" mantra the media pushes which never actually happens. I'm just kidding! The Patriots are going to select Jalen Collins because he's another talented corner...wait, he supposedly had drug issues in college? Nevermind, I was kidding about that too. Well, they need a pass rusher, so the best one on the board is Shane Ray. He has issues as well? Ugh, let's go offense. The Patriots could use another receiver, so the final pick is Devin Smith. He has speed and the Patriots could stand to upgrade at receiver. As of noon today, he hasn't had legal troubles.

*Real pick is Devin Smith, WR (I just wanted to show many guys could fall to this point based on personal issues)

Feel free to mock my mock draft. If I have time, I may update it with any trades that happen. We'll see.

Thursday, May 8, 2014

14 comments 2014 NFL Mock Draft

If you ever want a good laugh, then go back and look at my 2013 NFL mock draft from last year. It's hilarious in how stupid I was in making my draft picks. That's probably my worst mock ever. Since I've convinced you to read this year's mock draft by pointing out how clueless I am, how about reading this year's 2014 NFL mock draft? So stick around and read it after I mock myself for last year's mock draft. I put Ryan Nassib at #8 in the first round. I had the #6 overall pick go at #20 (though I said I think logically and Rob Chudzinski thinks "Chud-like" so maybe that should have been my tip-off to not use logic). I put Jesse Williams in the first round. I put D.J. Hayden at #31 and Justin Hunter at #32.

Interestingly, (or maybe not interestingly) I got more picks AFTER the Top-15 correct then I did in the Top-15. It takes a special sort of semi-informed stupidity to do that. I got one pick right in the Top-15 and three picks right in spots #16-#32. So maybe there is hope for me. I always promise I'm going to predict trades next year, but it's hard enough to predict which players will go in which spot, much less guess which of the NFL teams will trade up. I'm not even sure I can get one pick right in this year's draft. Trades are going to happen and it's nearly impossible to predict them. As Peter King would say, THIS IS THE MOST UNPREDICTABLE NFL DRAFT SINCE LAST YEAR'S DRAFT!

So hopefully I will do better than last year, and remember, every draft pick is brilliant until the time comes to prove that brilliance on the field. I have to say that the draft being pushed back two weeks was a bad idea. I understand the NFL will still get great ratings and so they will further push the draft back or keep it where it is in early May, but it's just too much draft talk. I want the draft to occur in late April again, but we all know the NFL will probably push it back again next year.

Since you aren't probably tired of mock drafts at this point...

1. Houston Texans- Jadeveon Clowney, DE

I know there are rumors Khalil Mack could be taken in this spot. I think it's going to be and should be Clowney. At worst Clowney is going to be a really good defensive lineman and at his best he will be an All-Pro six or seven times. I just don't think he has a really low floor and his ceiling is high. Combining him with J.J. Watt seems like a really, really good idea. Plus, the Texans are on the same division as Andrew Luck and it's always a good idea to have two great pass rushers to throw at a really good quarterback. Clowney took plays off in college. So did Julius Peppers and so do most college football players. The Texans shouldn't overthink this one.

2. St. Louis Rams-  Greg Robinson, T

I don't think the Rams keep this pick. They are open for business, as Peter King has told us on a weekly basis. I'm notoriously a big fan of offensive linemen in the draft. I think the best way to build a winning team is to build up the offensive/defensive lines. Protect your quarterback and rush the opposing quarterback. Robinson seems to be the best linemen in this draft and whoever is the quarterback for the Rams next year, plus he's a monster in the running game. If the Rams keep this pick, then Robinson should be the pick. If Bradford is the Rams quarterback then keeping him healthy is going to be very important.

3. Jacksonville Jaguars- Johnny Manziel, QB

I know, I know...there is no buzz for this pick. The Jaguars GM has said Manziel was the most pro-ready of all the quarterbacks in this draft and this really is a need for the Jaguars. Supposedly the Browns aren't taking Manziel, so maybe the Rams/Jaguars are starting those rumors in order to get trade offers at the #2/#3 spot, but I think the Jaguars need for a quarterback leads them to Manziel. Gus Bradley is a defensive guy, but his experience in Seattle would not stop him from taking a shorter quarterback if that's the guy he likes. I'm not a huge Manziel fan, but he would sell tickets and an argument can easily be made that he's the best quarterback in this draft (I think it's Teddy Bridgewater, but what do I know?). I think the Jaguars go quarterback because they understand they will have to possibly trade up back into the first round to get the quarterback they want, so why not take the one they consider most pro-ready and creates excitement? 

4. Cleveland Browns- Sammy Watkins, WR

Well, the last time the Browns were at #4 with two first round picks they took a skill position player and tried to get a quarterback later in the first round. That didn't work out so well. So fuck it, maybe they should try it again. What could it hurt? I don't think Watkins will end up being the best wide receiver in this draft, but having him and Gordon across from each other is a good way to put a scare into opposing teams. Throw in Jordan Cameron and whoever the quarterback is next year for the Browns has the weapons to work with.  The Browns obviously have other positions of need and Mike Evans could be in play here too, but I think they take the guy considered the best receiver in the draft to pair up with Josh Gordon. Quarterback is a need, but I'm not convinced any of the quarterbacks (outside of Bridgewater, who I love) is a better option at this spot. Don't reach.

5. Oakland Raiders- Mike Evans, WR

I feel this way about Mike Evans for the same reason I mocked Darrius Heyward-Bey to the Raiders a few years ago. It just feels like a Raiders pick. Evans is younger, raw, talented, and has all the physical characteristics a team wants in a wide receiver. I'm tempted to put Manziel here because that would cause the Internet to explode with Raiders fans cheering for the polarizing Manziel on a weekly basis, but I'm not that fortunate for that to occur. Of course if the Browns are really down on Manziel and the Jags take Khalil Mack or Blake Bortles, Manziel could be a Raider. The Raiders receivers weren't terrible last year, but there wasn't a #1 receiver on the roster, so Evans could end up being that guy. Maybe Matt Schaub can call back some magic from his and Andre Johnson's earlier playing days together with Evans. At worst, Evans will stay in great shape chasing after cornerbacks who have intercepted a pass from Schaub, trying to help prevent Schaub from throwing another pick-six. 

6. Atlanta Falcons- Jake Matthews, T

I can see the Falcons going offensive line here with visions still fresh of the beating Ryan took during games against NFC South opponents last year. Matthews would be a great choice in this spot and it never hurts to have more protection for Matt Ryan. Mack could also be the choice, but I think the need to protect Ryan slightly outweighs the need for another playmaker on defense. Matthews is a ten-year starter at tackle. Not a bad choice. 

7. Tampa Bay Buccaneers- Khalil Mack, LB

This annoys me. I don't want the Buccaneers to get Mack. I don't want Chris Berman to potentially say "Return of the Mack" and I don't want the Buccaneers to get Mack. At that point, they will have an absolutely stellar group of linebackers with Foster, David and Mack. Considering the Buccaneers head coach is Lovie Smith who has had success in the past with an elite linebacking unit, I can easily see the Buccaneers making this pick over a quarterback. I don't think the Bucs would draft a quarterback after Lovie announced Josh McCown as the starter and Mike Glennon is still on the roster (for now).

8. Minnesota Vikings- Aaron Donald, DT

I must admit, this is a purely gut feeling I have. I don't think Rick Spielman is going to feel good about taking any quarterbacks at this point in the draft and he will want to rebuild the "Williams Wall" with Donald and Floyd. I think too many quarterbacks are going to go in the first round than probably deserve to go in the first round, but I also think there will be a good QB available in the second round for the Vikings to take as well. The best way to help a shaky QB situation is to give that QB a great defense and the Vikings are in a position to do that. I wouldn't be so dramatic as to say Spielman is on the hot seat, but I don't think he'll take a quarterback in this spot unless he's certain he has the right guy. Plus, the Vikings just hired a defensive coach. 

9. Buffalo Bills- Odell Beckham, WR

I'm probably making a mistake here, but there is a lot of chatter among the Bills fans on Twitter that the team loves Beckham. Yes, I'm sort of basing this pick on what I'm hearing from sources who don't possibly know jackshit. Either way, the pick makes sense. E.J. Manuel needs another receiver and if the Bills don't go with Lewan there are worse picks to make than a receiver for Manuel. Beckham also has the dreaded "late riser" label, which ultimately means he will probably go in the 3rd round. Also, if Chris Berman uses any form of "Bend it Like Beckham" when this pick is made I'm going to poison my coffee with anti-freeze tomorrow. I can't live in a world like that. 

10. Detroit Lions- Justin Gilbert, CB

I feel like I have mocked a corner to the Lions for all of eternity. Maybe I should realize either (a) it's not a need or (b) they aren't drafting a corner every year in the first round. Either way, with new coach Jim Caldwell (insert passive-aggressive comment about his coaching record here) I don't know what to expect with this pick. I will say I think drafting a wide receiver is a mistake. It's Matt Millen-esque when there are plenty of other choices that would be better in this spot. The corners right now are Chris Houston and Rashean Mathis. You can't tell me a ball-hawk like Gilbert shouldn't be taken here. In fact, take an offensive tackle here or take a safety like Pryor, Ward, or Clinton-Dix. Don't take another receiver. It would be fun to watch, but it's also needless. It shouldn't come as a shock that Caldwell wants a strong offense since he's an offensive coach. His teams at Wake Forest were notorious for putting up points but not playing any defense. So he'll probably go there again. 

11. Tennessee Titans- Kyle Fuller, CB

I feel like the Titans lose a corner in free agency every single year. I know Whisenhunt is an offensive coach and the Titans may be a dark horse candidate to take a QB here, but they need assistance in the secondary and I actually like Fuller more than I like Gilbert. I can't help but wonder if Whisenhunt may end up going with a tight end in this spot, though it seems REALLY early for Ebron. Of course Anthony Barr would probably also fit, but when looking at the Titans roster and seeing their needs, I think a cornerback is the pick.

12. New York Giants- Taylor Lewan, T

This makes sense, right? Lewan has off-the-field troubles and the Giants probably could use another pass-rusher to replace Justin Tuck (though they do have Moore and signed Robert Ayers), but I think Lewan will still be the pick. Tight end is a need here as well, but after a season where Eli Manning struggled and threw quite a few interceptions there is nothing wrong with giving him some more protection. The Giants did draft a tackle last year too, so maybe I'm way off, but I think the best way to help Eli bounce back this year is to shore up his offensive line. 

13. St. Louis Rams- Bradley Roby, CB

A troubled but talented cornerback (Adam Jones, Janoris Jenkins) could be drafted by Jeff Fisher? No way. Jeff Fisher thinks he could take any player and provide him the environment to succeed and even though Roby getting lit up by Abbrederis is constantly brought up, the talent certainly seems to be here. The Rams would be very talented at the corner position if Roby is the pick, though I'm sure it's tempting to maybe pick a safety or offensive linemen in this spot. Either way it ends up, we know Peter King will tell us it was a great pick and Jeff "8-8" Fisher will be on track for another season of his friends in the media telling us how the Rams are a team on the rise.  

14. Chicago Bears- Ra'Shede Hageman, DT

The Bears current defensive tackles are Tracy Robertson and Jay Ratliff. I got the chance to see Hageman shut down quite a few really good running teams in college (obviously not by himself) and I think he will fit what the Bears seem to want out of a defensive tackle, which is to take up space and get penetration (fine, every team wants that). This seems like a really good pick. Hageman helps the Bears get a little younger on defense and will help create pressure from the middle in a division with Stafford and Rodgers. 

15. Pittsburgh Steelers- Zack Martin, G/T

Martin can supposedly play nearly every position on the offensive line. This will really come in handy for a team who has had problems injuries at interior line positions and as well as difficulty with offensive tackles getting stabbed on occasion. Roethlisberger seems to enjoy running for his life, but it wouldn't hurt the Steelers to draft an offensive lineman who can play multiple positions in case they need that flexibility as the season goes on and injuries inevitably occur. The Steelers do seem to catch a falling star every year in the draft, so if they grab a guy whose fallen then I could see Blake Bor---I'm just kidding---Anthony Barr in this spot.

16. Dallas Cowboys- Eric Ebron, TE

This pick is probably wrong. It just seems to fit for me though. The Cowboys aren't taking a quarterback, but they do need some help on defense, so that very well could be the direction they go in. Still, I have this feeling...Tony Romo was throwing to Cole Beasley for a while last year due to injuries in the receiving group and Witten is not getting any younger. Ebron has his negatives, but he also can be lined up as a receiver like other elite tight ends in the NFL. So he's not necessarily going to struggle for playing time behind Witten if he can be split-wide. This pick probably won't happen, but knowing Jerry Jones this seems like a big upside pick that he would make to avoid Cole Beasley being on the field too much. 

17. Baltimore Ravens- Calvin Pryor, S

The Ravens other safety with Matt Elam is Anthony Levine. That is all. I know it's tempting to mock a tight end or another spot here, but the Ravens would really have a set of good safeties with Pryor and Elam. This is a typical Ravens pick. They get a guy who fits a need and also will contribute early in his career. Also, on a personal note I saw Steve Smith on the Ravens depth chart and did a double take. Doesn't seem right quite yet. My dark horse in this spot is Blake Bor---I'm kidding again---C.J. Mosley in case the Ravens want to go the whole "leadership and college production" route at the linebacker spot. 

18. New York Jets- Darqueze Dennard, CB

The Jets could really use some help on offense to give Geno Smith or Mike Vick a fighting chance, but Rex Ryan does like his defensive players and he really likes his cornerbacks. It doesn't hurt the Jets could use another corner. I don't think it's a bad move necessarily because defense has been Ryan's calling card and he's certainly won playoff games with a mediocre quarterback and a great defense. It would be funny for comedy's sake if the Jets took a quarterback here. Those idiot Jets fans at the draft would go ballistic.

19. Miami Dolphins- Morgan Moses, T

I've gone back and forth on this pick. Tannehill needs to be protected but are the Dolphins really going to reach for a tackle at this point in the draft? I feel like any tackle drafted here is a reach, but the Dolphins really, really, really need offensive line help. It's either take an OL here and reach or wait and possibly try to trade up for a lineman. I think the Dolphins just take the lineman they need here. I did have Anthony Barr mocked at this spot, for no other reason than if the Dolphins are going to be passing over an offensive lineman I can see them taking the most talented defensive player available. I re-thought this because they really, really need to protect Tannehill.

20. Arizona Cardinals- Blake Bortles, QB

He's going in the first round. I do not like Bortles at all, but he looks like a QB and played well in the  BCS bowl game. That's enough to get him a first round slot. The Cardinals have been looking for a quarterback since Kurt Warner retired and they now have Carson Palmer. What could be better than having Palmer and knowing they already have Palmer's replacement on the roster? They don't have to throw Bortles in immediately and can him bring him along slower as will probably be required. It's a good situation for Bortles and the Cardinals. They have other needs, but the chance to get a franchise quarterback can not be overlooked in this spot.

21. Green Bay Packers- Ha Ha Clinton Dix, S

The Packers do have Sean Richardson so Clinton Dix is a luxury (laughs to himself). The Packers need to get better at the safety position and they most likely want to get faster since they have been shown up by Colin Kaepernick quite a few times. Clinton Dix (or is it just Dix?) helps to make the Packers faster on defense and also serves as the ball-hawk they need in the secondary. I think this pick makes sense, which means it won't happen. 

22. Philadelphia Eagles- Ryan Shazier, OLB

The Eagles need to improve on defense and Shazier is another dreaded "late riser" who looks like he'll be a really good NFL player. Of course looks can be deceiving. The Eagles have to improve their defense so I think the need for a receiver like Cooks can be pushed back another round. I am always a little nervous about guys who rise late in the draft like Shazier has done, but I think he makes more sense for the Eagles needs than a receiver would at this point in the draft. 

23. Kansas City Chiefs- Brandin Cooks, WR

The playoff game against the Colts aside, let's not get confused. The Chiefs needed another receiver for the majority of last season. I don't believe the Chiefs will draft a QB in this spot because they can't sign Alex Smith to an extension, though that seems like something that would happen to Alex Smith. He can't seem to be good enough to where he isn't getting replaced. There's always something that causes him to be replaced, whether it be an injury or his wanting to be paid like he believes he deserves to be paid. Cooks would give the Chiefs a slot receiver that Dexter McCluster never turned into and helps them get more explosive on offense. I think drafting a guard like Sua' Filo or Marcus Martin is probably an outside possibility here too. 

24. Cincinnati Bengals- Kony Ealy, DE

The Bengals lost Michael Johnson in free agency and Ealy seems to be a good replacement for him. I guess cornerback is a possibility here, though I'm not sure there is a corner worth taking outside of Jason Verrett, who is really good, but I'm not sure that's the Bengals biggest need. They could use another pass rusher and Ealy is the defensive lineman from Missouri who hasn't gotten as much press of late, but is more talented than Michael Sam. There are other needs but I think the Bengals go with the best available pass rusher. 

25. San Diego Chargers- Kelvin Benjamin, WR

It seems Louis Nix is the popular choice in this spot. It makes sense because he's a nose tackle and the Chargers could use a fatty up front to occupy blockers. Benjamin seems almost like a luxury pick considering the Chargers don't have a terrible receiving group, but for some reason I think the Chargers are going to give Rivers another offensive guy in this draft. Benjamin would be a big red zone target and has the much-coveted "upside," so I think the Chargers needs at nose tackle could wait until another round in favor of making sure Rivers has another blue chip receiver to complement Keenan Allen. It's another gut feeling I have, so I completely expect the Chargers to draft Teddy Bridgewater or trade the pick and make me look stupid.

26. Cleveland Browns (The "Trent Richardson was totally worth it to the Colts" pick)- C.J. Mosley, LB 

I had Bridgewater here, but I'm a fool who actually believes the Browns aren't interested in him. The Browns took care of the opposite receiver spot from Josh Gordon with the last pick and I think they will replace Craig Robertson with Mosley. Mike Pettine is a defensive coach so I don't doubt the Browns are going to get a defensive player with one of these picks, should they keep both first round draft picks. This is the area where trades often happen so I fully expect picks #26-#32 to have at least one (possibly two) trade occur within those picks. So I would not be surprised to see any of those picks traded. If the Browns keep this then I see them going with Mosley who I am not sure will fall even this far in the draft. I would feel pretty good about this pick if I were a Browns fan.

27. New Orleans Saints- Marcus Martin, C/G

The Saints are pretty set at guard, but they could use a center. I'm not sure Tim Lelito is the answer at the center position. Martin can play both guard and center and it's very important to keep internal pressure from being in Drew Brees' face. His height isn't an issue necessarily, but the best way to beat a quarterback is to get pressure in his face and that goes double for a quarterback who is six-feet tall. It's not a sexy pick or the pass rusher/wide receiver that I know will make waves and lead the talking heads to say, "Drew Brees/Rob Ryan got another weapon" and then wax hyperbolic for a few minutes. Martin projects to be a good offensive lineman and the Saints have a need at the center position. If they don't trade back, then I think Martin is the guy. 

28. Carolina Panthers- Marqise Lee, WR (Xavier Su'a Filo, G)

It's my favorite team, I can cheat if I want to. In this mock draft, I have the Panthers taking Marqise Lee, but I put Su'a Filo's name in there too. The Panthers GM is dedicated to taking the best player available. If this means best player available on the team's draft board at a position of need, then that's Marqise Lee, if that means the best player on the team's draft board then I think that will be Su'a Filo. The consensus seems to be the Panthers don't need help at the guard position, but I think that could change if the best guard in the draft is still out there. I have beaten the drum for a while that wide receiver is much, much smaller need than offensive line. There is a real chance Cam Newton will be murdered by a pass rusher next year. It's problem #1 for the team, but all the great tackles are gone, so I have no idea if the team will go with a "blue goose" (it's a weird team the GM uses) wide receiver or a "blue goose" offensive lineman at a position of lesser need. I say it's a receiver if Lee fails this far, though I hate myself for mocking a wide receiver in this spot. It's just how my mock fell. What does "best player available" really mean anyway?

29. New England Patriots- Jace Amaro, TE

This pick gives me an ulcer. It feels like a cop-out. I believe the Patriots will be one of those teams heavy in the trade market to move back, but Tom Brady needs receivers. Gronkowski is injury-prone, Aaron Hernandez isn't leaving jail anytime soon and there were too many games last year where the Brady didn't have reliable targets. The Patriots have run double tight end sets before with Hernandez and Gronkowski, so Amaro would work fine if Gronk stays healthy. He will give Brady a consistent weapon in the middle of the field or that can split wide to create room for receivers over the middle. The Patriots could take Dominique Easley here. Easley has an injury history but has Top-15 potential, while the Patriots could him a year to recover and stay healthy if necessary. I just think they need to work on giving Brady more offensive guys so he isn't throwing to unreliable receivers and Austin Collie doesn't play a big role at the end of games.

30. San Francisco 49ers- Jason Verrett, CB

If they keep this pick I think this is the pick. San Francisco doesn't have a ton of needs, but one of their big needs is a corner who can cover the slot. They also could use another receiver and I could see Dominique Easley being taken here as well, but I think the value for Verrett and what he will provide the 49ers is why he'll be the pick. If Verrett were taller then I think he would be considered to be the top corner in the draft, but alas, he is not tall enough. I know it's tempting to mock a taller corner here, but Verrett fits what the 49ers currently need (and he isn't afraid to tackle) and from what I've seen from him at TCU he plays taller than 5'9". 

31. Denver Broncos- Joel Bitonio, OL

I know. Boring. Wouldn't the Broncos like to go defense since they struggled defensively in the Super Bowl? Well, I know a little bit about John Fox and I know he likes his offensive linemen as much as he likes his defensive players. Bitonio can play multiple offensive line positions and while it seems drafting him goes against the "win-now" mentality of the Broncos, I think it fits in perfectly with that mentality. As we saw in the Super Bowl, Manning can't do it all if he doesn't have protection, so the Broncos draft a versatile, athletic offensive lineman who can shore up the Broncos protection and fill in at various spots on the line in case of injuries.

32. Seattle Seahawks- Gabe Jackson, G

If the Seahawks keep this pick (repeat after me...), then I think guard is a glaring need for them. They already didn't pick up James Carpenter's fifth year option. This may mean nothing, but the Seahawks a run-based team and I can completely see Jackson opening up holes for Marshawn Lynch. Jackson isn't the highest-rated player on the board at this point, but the Seahawks have a history of drafting guys who fit their needs and not worrying too much about what others may think. Jackson is an absolute mauler when he wants to be and I think he fits the Seahawks needs well. Of course this pick makes too much sense so I don't think it will happen.

Feel free to tell me how smart or dumb I am in the comments. I realize there will be 10 quarterbacks drafted in the first round because teams are going to panic and try to get their "franchise guy" by reaching for a quarterback, but I'm not confident enough to pick out where these quarterbacks will end up. I hate trades. Trades mess up a mock draft.