3 comments Hindsight is a Cold, Cold Bitch to Bill Simmons

What can bring me back? Bill Simmons. That's what. I haven't addressed this but I'm not "gone" and plan on writing here still. I just have to find time. Things get busy, it takes a while to write, so I have taken a forced sabbatical. I loved writing here and it literally took a change in life to where I had zero free time to rip me away from it. So I've moved back into my mom's basement, fired up the computer, and put up my Sabermetrics posters for today.

Scott on Twitter sent me this article and I couldn't not write about it. It's by Bill Simmons and it's from March 2012. It's about how terrible the Golden State Warriors are. It's not true anymore, but hindsight is a cold, cold bitch. As Scott told me, the self-appointed guru of the NBA doesn't look so great on this one. I tend to be long-winded (I know! Me?) so I'm going to only get to the pertinent parts of the column. It's a typical Simmons column. It's too long and he mistakes having a lot of content for quality content.

You might not know this, you might not believe it … but once upon a time, the Golden State Warriors won the NBA championship. 

Last year. 2015. Three years after this column was written the Warriors won a title.

I know some SimmonsClone is going to read this and bitch I'm being unfair to Bill by using hindsight. Get out of here. He uses hindsight all the time to tell us what "we" thought when he was wrong, and since Bill has enough of a ego to appoint himself as an NBA expert (and really believe he can be an NBA GM), it's not unfair at all to pick at him for writing a column about how terrible the Warriors were when this was no longer true less than a year after Bill wrote this column. The Warriors made the Western Conference Semifinals a year after this was written. Bill has to do better. And of course, Bill will NEVER remember he wrote this column or acknowledge it. He's too busy building a media empire.

And so it began. Three and a half decades later, the Golden State Warriors have morphed into the most tortured franchise in professional basketball. 

Professional franchises and fans bitching about how tortured they are? This is all Bill's fault. His whining about the Red Sox in the early 2000's made it okay to wallow in how tortured a team is.

the Warriors lack an identity beyond the whole “they suck every year, they always screw up, but at least they have great fans” tag.

Again, a whole three years later they won a title. I'll let this statement just sit here and let's think about how the Warriors lack an identity for a minute.

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Okay, let's get back to it. I'm not ignoring the Warriors got booed in their own building. That is true. Bill is correct. What he isn't correct about is his criticism of the 2012 Warriors and the direction the team was taking. Bill starts documenting the terrible moves beginning with the 1976-1977 season in this column. The Warriors made the playoffs six times from the 1976-1977 season until the 2011-2012 season (when this column was written).

Bill counts down 60 reasons the Warriors annoyed their fan base. He, of course, essentially repeats many of the same points along the way. He just re-phrases how he writes, "The Warriors traded for Joe Barry Carroll and had a lot of drug users on their team in the 1980's" a few times.

15. Naturally, the Warriors blew things up again, flipping Richmond to Sacramento for the rights to Billy Owens, a talented but sluggish forward who (you’re not going to believe this) never reached his potential for Golden State.

Oh no! Facts are getting in the way of Bill's argument. This is where Bill hopes no one goes to look up whether this statement about Owens never reaching his potential is accurate or not. Spoiler alert: It's a lie. Owens had his best seasons in the NBA while playing for the Warriors. Yes, Richmond was still great after being traded by the Warriors, but Owens never reached his full potential. He came the closest playing for the Warriors early in his career.

Bill also conveniently skips over smart moves like drafting Latrell Sprewell with the #24 pick in the 1992 draft. This is a footnote to the column so as not to distract from Bill's point the Warriors couldn't ever do anything right.

17. The following year, Mullin, Hardaway and Owens missed a combined 107 games for the 34-win Warriors,

Yeah, but Owens never reached his full potential anyway, right?

This is typical Bill Simmons. He writes that trading for the rights to Owens was a mistake because he never reached his full potential with the Warriors and then uses the absence of Owens as a reason the Warriors stunk during the 1993-1994 season. He wants it both ways.

27. Coming off another lottery season (30 wins), the ’97 Warriors fired Adelman, hired college coach P.J. Carlesimo

Again, Bill only pays attention to facts to the extent they support his argument. "College coach" Carlesimo had a 137-109 record over three seasons with the Trail Blazers as their head coach. But yeah, he was a "college coach" and wasn't qualified for an NBA head coaching job. Sure.

Then Bill continues to show what the Warriors "missed" out on if they had drafted perfectly every single year even though this would never happen for any professional team no matter how smart their front office is.

a Hall of Fame Absolutely-Coulda-Drafted-Him Starting Five (Bird, Garnett, Kobe, T-Mac and Payton, with McHale coming off the bench). 

By the time McGrady and Garnett were any good Bird and McHale would have been retired/too old to contribute. But again, let's ignore facts and the passage of time relative to each player's ability level to focus on the point Bill wants to prove. Bill lives in a fantasy world where he is an NBA guru anyway, so may as well just drag ourselves into this fantasy where Larry Bird and Tracy McGrady would be playing meaningful minutes together.

39. The 2001 Warriors had more players (22) than wins (17). The league’s second-worst record earned them the fifth pick (Jason Richardson); they also drafted Troy Murphy (with the pick from the Blaylock/Terry trade) and stole Gilbert Arenas in the second round. Naturally, they celebrated that draft haul by egregiously overpaying Jamison (six years, $85 million). 

A 24 year old in the prime of his career who averaged 24.9 points per game? Was it really an overpay?

47. The ’08 Warriors won 48 games — their highest win total since 1994 — but somehow made history by winning the most games by any team that didn’t make the playoffs. Only the Warriors. 

Or only any other NBA team like the Sonics, Clippers, Cavs, etc that Bill feels like writing a "woe is them" column about. "Only the Warriors," unless this column is about another NBA team. In that case, just exchange "Warriors" for that team name.

53. In July of 2010, former Celtics minority owner Joe Lacob purchased the Warriors from Cohan, said all the right things, seemed intelligent/confident/competent and promised to turn things around.

ONLY THE CELTICS AND THEIR LARRY BIRD MAGIC COULD SAVE THE WARRIORS! NO ONE DENIES THE LUCK OF THE IRISH!

55. The facts heading into this season: The Warriors missed the playoffs 29 times in 35 years … the Warriors won four playoff series total in 34 years … the Warriors haven’t made the playoffs for two straight seasons since 1977 … the Warriors haven’t made the Conference Finals since 1976 … the Warriors haven’t had an All-Star since 1997 … the Warriors have earned spots at 16 of the last 17 lotteries (impossible but true) … the Warriors have made 22 top-14 picks since 1985 (including 11 in the top eight and five in the top three) … and the Warriors made so many bad first-round picks and overpaid so many guys over the past 35 years that I don’t even have time to type all their names again.

It's almost like what a team has done in the past doesn't necessarily matter as it pertains to moves they would make in the future. After "this season" the Warriors made the playoffs three straight years and won an NBA title. Bill Simmons thinks it's crazy that a team's past can't dictate their future. It's crazy because Bill prefers talking about non-sports related reasons why a team can/can't win games.

"This team gives a lot of high-fives! This has directly led to their success!"

"This team has more than one knucklehead on the roster! That means they can't win games!"

"This team has a curse on them!"

"This team isn't fun to watch, which happens to coincide with the team not winning games!"

56. For some reason, despite everything you just read for more than 4,000 words, Lacob decided to guarantee these tortured fans that their Warriors would make the playoffs this season. 

And then the Warriors made the playoffs the next season, made the playoffs again the season after that, won the NBA title that next season, and now are making a run at being one of the best NBA teams in history. Lacob missed by one season. Bill missed by a lot more in writing this column.

57. He hired Mark Jackson as his new coach (someone with no coaching experience whatsoever)

The Warriors then fired Mark Jackson after a 51-31 season and hired another coach WITH NO COACHING EXPERIENCE WHATSOEVER! Again? Why?

This other head coach the Warriors hired with no head coaching experience then immediately led the Warriors to an NBA title. So the Warriors went 188-124 when hiring coaches with no prior coaching experience whatsoever. What dumbasses the Warriors are.

and signed off when Jackson vowed to turn Golden State into an elite defensive team despite the fact that, you know, its best three players couldn’t defend anyone.

How silly of Jackson to vow that he would turn the Warriors into a great defensive team. It would have been better if he had just not tried to teach the Warriors defense at all. That's a much better method of coaching.

Using Bill Simmons' logic, it's ridiculous for a head coach to vow that he will fix his team's biggest deficiency. Remember, Bill considers himself to be brilliant.

58. His team used its amnesty on Charlie Bell (one year, $4 million) instead of Andris Biedrins (three years, $27 million) so the Warriors could overpay DeAndre Jordan (four years, $43 million) … only the Clippers matched their Jordan offer, leaving Golden State without any outs with Biedrins (who’s been in a funk for four solid years, but hey, who’s counting?).

The Warriors later cleared Biedrins' contract by trading him to the Jazz  in order to gain salary cap space that led to them signing Andre Iguodala. Iguodala was a key to the Warriors' championship run and is an integral part of the current Warriors historically great team. But hey, who's counting?

59. His team waived Jeremy Lin to sign second-rounder Charles Jenkins, then claimed after Linsanity took off in New York that they loved Lin and never wanted to lose him.

Jeremy Lin then came back to Earth, was overpaid by the Rockets and now plays in the desolate NBA wasteland known as "Charlotte" for a team run by an owner who also seems to have no clue how to build an NBA team.

60. When his team struggled to compete in a brutally tough Western conference, Lacob’s staff promptly reversed course and made two of the weirdest trades in a while: sending Ellis and Udoh⁷ to Milwaukee for the defensive center/rebounder they’d been recklessly pursuing for months (settling on Andrew Bogut, who’s injured until April and missed a whopping 108 games these past three-plus years)

This trade added another piece to the current Warriors team that is winning games at a historical pace. Bogut is a great defensive center (which of course, who cares if the Warriors are trying to have a good defensive team, that's ridiculous) who has helped the Warriors in ways Udoh and Ellis could not.

and Stephen Jackson’s Non-Expiring Contract (two years, $19.3 million remaining), then flipped Jackson’s Non-Expiring Contract for Richard Jefferson’s Apocalypse of a Contract (three years, $30.5 million remaining) and a late first-round pick

The Warriors later flipped Jefferson to the Jazz, thereby clearing more room for Iguodala's signing, and the late first round pick turned into Festus Ezeli who is another good defensive player that has continued to improve through his career with the Warriors.

AND THEN tried to spin the deal as “We can’t make the playoffs, we need to bottom out this season so we finish in the top seven of the lottery and don’t lose our first-round pick to Utah.”

The Warriors then bottomed out and finished at #7 in the lottery, drafting Harrison Barnes, who has (you guessed it!) been an important part of the 2014-2015 NBA title team and has continued to improve throughout his NBA career. So as dumb as these trades seemed at the time, these two trades ended up netting the Warriors four players that contributed to an NBA title. When writing a column about how dumb these trades were and how the Warriors continue to screw their fan base over, it's probably best Bill just forgets he wrote all this. He hopes we forget too.

Imagine you’re a Warriors fan. Imagine you just endured everything just laid out these past 35 years. Imagine you didn’t trust your owners, your front office, anybody. Imagine they just traded your most entertaining player for an injury-prone center who can’t play,

Yes, imagine the Warriors are building a historically great team that can play and Bill totally went all-in on how bad the franchise was. Imagine that. Imagine how embarrassing that would be in hindsight that Bill wrote this column.

and imagine knowing that you can’t sign anyone else for two more summers because Biedrins and Jefferson

Imagine Bill's assumption are incorrect and they signed Andre Iguodala because they were able to clear Biedrins and Jefferson off the cap.

Imagine you have some of the best fellow fans in the league, only you rarely if ever have a chance to cheer anything

Imagine this isn't true anymore. Imagine this stopped being true less than a year after this column was written.

Imagine hearing that, after months and months of Chris Paul rumors and Dwight Howard rumors

Imagine that Bill Simmons dangles Dwight Howard here as a great free agent signing/trade target and then a year later Bill writes off Howard as a franchise player. Imagine it. You don't have to. It happened.

and “PLAYOFFS! PLAYOFFS! PLAYOFFS!” rhetoric,

Imagine if this happened a year later. We can only imagine...

your team just abruptly told you, “Oh, by the way, we’re going to tank the rest of this season because we don’t want to be haunted by a stupid trade from four years ago, but seriously, thanks for paying for season tickets this year.”

Imagine the Warriors were literally building the skeletal core of their championship basketball team as Bill wrote this column criticizing these moves. Imagine...

Imagine you were a paying customer and Chris Mullin Night doubled as the last bankably fun night of the season. Imagine the emotion inside the building with those Warriors legends on hand. Imagine everything cresting with Mully’s humble speech. Imagine the arrogance of Lacob grabbing that microphone — somehow deciding that he should be the last speaker of the ceremony, not Chris Mullin — and imagine your resentment over the past 35 years suddenly swelling as you realized, “Here’s my one chance to be heard.” 

I ask you … would you boo?

Yeah, I might boo. Imagine you were a huge NBA fan who prided yourself on your knowledge about whether a team was making smart moves or not. This is your identity in many ways. Imagine you were a huge NBA fan and you were also a (part time) writer and struggled when not using hindsight to show how "we" were wrong about something. Imagine you wrote this column about how the Warriors were on the wrong path...again. Imagine you were not correct about this. Imagine you suggested the Warriors fans should have been excited about the prospect of signing/trading a player you would write off a year later.

I ask you .... would you be worried people who read your columns notice you aren't as much of a guru when you can't use hindsight to defend your opinions that are passed off as fact?

2 comments Apparently Whatever Team Drafted Buster Posey Would Have Won Three World Series Titles By Now

Buster Posey is a great catcher and baseball player. All four teams that didn't draft him probably would have liked to have gotten a chance to look into the future, see what kind of baseball player Posey would become, and then draft him. When he isn't causing consternation based on when he was called up to the majors, Posey is causing (supposed) consternation from the teams that didn't draft him. Bill Shaikin has written a column about how the Royals passed over Posey in the 2008 MLB draft and then talks about the other teams that passed over Posey. There seems to be an...assumption, maybe...perhaps an insinuation...or more like a suggestion that whatever team had drafted Posey would have won one or multiple World Series at this point.

Every team in every sport passes up a great player at some point in that organization's history. It's bound to happen. I guess it's an easy comparison to see that the Royals and Giants were playing in the World Series and the Royals just happened to draft Eric Hosmer over Buster Posey. It's not really news, but it is interesting. It's just...the assumption I feel like I am reading that the Royals and the Rays would have won a World Series (and the Pirates and Orioles to a lesser extent) by now if they had drafted Posey seems speculative. I'm not sure it would have worked that way.

If the Kansas City Royals lose this World Series, none of the decisions they are about to make will be as crucial as one they made six years ago.

They could have had Buster Posey.

Yes, they could have had Buster Posey. The Royals do have Salvador Perez and he is 24 years old and signed for the next five years at $18.5 million, until he is 29 years old. He had the worst batting season of his career this year and hit .260/.289/.403, won a Gold Glove and had a WAR of 3.3. He's definitely not Buster Posey, but he's also not a shitty catcher. I'm sure the Royals regret not drafting Posey, but Posey has also signed a large contract (nine years $164 million) that would not have fit into what the Royals are trying to do. They want to build the team around defense and speed. Perez plays really good defense. Posey was a better selection, but the Royals aren't stuck with chicken shit right now.

With the third pick of the 2008 draft, the Royals picked first baseman Eric Hosmer. With the fifth pick, the Giants happily grabbed Posey, who has led them to three World Series appearances in five years.

Posey was a college player and Hosmer was a high school player. Different situations for both players. Posey is obviously the better player though. 

They won in 2010, when Posey was the National League rookie of the year. They won in 2012, when 

Posey was the NL most valuable player and batting champion.

In their 52 B.P. (Before Posey) years in San Francisco, the Giants never won.

They did make the World Series in 1989 and 2002, so it's not like they were a totally struggling franchise B.P. They weren't great, that's for sure. 

"It is not a coincidence," said Bobby Evans, the Giants' assistant general manager.

It's also not a coincidence that pitchers like Tim Lincecum, Matt Cain, Madison Bumgarner, Jonathan Sanchez (he was good in 2010), and Ryan Vogelsong pitched for the Giants during that time and they had a really good bullpen to help close out games. Buster Posey obviously has something to do with the Giants winning three World Series, but it's not a coincidence that the Giants won a World Series with Posey on the roster like it's not a coincidence they also won three World Series when they had good young pitching. 

The standard major league team has a catcher batting low in the order, and any offense is a bonus. In Posey, the Giants have an elite batter staffing the most arduous defensive position.

It is a plus, but it also doesn't immediately lead to success. The best hitting catchers in the majors this year (300 or more at-bats) were Devin Mesoraco, Buster Posey, Jonathan Lucroy, Yan Gomes, Russell Martin, Derek Norris, Carlos Ruiz, Evan Gattis, Chris Iannetta, and Yadier Molina. Of those players four were in the playoffs and two of them lost in the Wild Card game. It's a bonus to have a great hitting catcher in the lineup. It's also a bonus to have a pitching staff that's ranked in the Top 10 in ERA and quality starts (except for 2014) every year the Giants have won the World Series. I'm not taking anything away from Posey, his good hitting is a plus, but he's not THE REASON the Giants have won three World Series.

Posey was the only major league catcher to lead his team in home runs, and he amplified the Giants' huge competitive advantage at the position by leading his team in batting average and on-base-plus-slugging percentage, too.

I think this is more of a reflection on the lack of power the Giants had, and the fact Brandon Belt only played in 61 games, than it is a reflection that this is a competitive advantage of some sort. It's good to have a catcher lead the team in home runs, but I'm not sure it's quite the competitive advantage the author thinks it is without other great players around him. I also don't understand why this is a bigger competitive advantage coming from a catcher specifically. There still has to be great players around that catcher. Todd Frazier led the the Reds in batting average, OBP, home runs, hits, and RBI's, PLUS he had the catcher who hit the most home runs in MLB on his team, and the Reds finished 76-86.

"To play the catcher position, put up a .300 average and hit 20 home runs, you should be in the MVP talk every year," Giants pitcher Tim Hudson said. "I don't care how your team finishes."

Finally, an MLB player is on record as saying winning games doesn't matter in terms of whether a player on that team should be in the MVP discussion. Perhaps Tim Hudson thinks this only applies to the position of catcher. 

The Dodgers had the 15th pick of the 2008 draft. But the Giants, who had the fifth pick, hired Barr as scouting director.

With the Giants, Barr had his chance at Posey.

"If he was there when we picked, we were going to take him," Barr said.

This turned out to be a good move and the direct cause for the Giants to win three World Series. 

The Tampa Bay Rays, run by new Dodgers baseball boss Andrew Friedman, had the first pick. In one of the all-time draft blunders, they narrowed their choice to Posey and high school infielder Tim Beckham, then chose Beckham.

I do not approve of the wording of this sentence. One of the all-time draft blunders was drafting Tim Beckham just overall, no matter who the Rays had it narrowed down to. They could have chosen pretty much anyone else drafted in the Top 10 of the 2008 draft and been in better shape than they were in drafting Beckham. So yes, it was an all-time draft blunder to draft Beckham overall, regardless of whether they selected Buster Posey.

"How many World Series would the Rays have won with him instead of Beckham?" one American League scout said. "They're always looking for a catcher."

Oh lord. I don't even know what to say to this comment. It's not like if the Rays had drafted Buster Posey this would have immediately vaulted them into winning several World Series back-to-back. If they had brought Posey up in 2010 then he would have helped that Rays team for sure. I will concede that. The Rays may have a World Series title by now, but that's pure speculation. There's no way to know for sure, but one thing I do know for sure is that if the Rays had drafted Buster Posey, he would possibly not be a member of the Rays during the 2015 season. Based on the fact he didn't sign a team-friendly contract with the Giants, he wouldn't have signed a team-friendly contract with the Rays and would be eligible for arbitration during the 2015 season. The Rays love to trade players and get a solid return in order to keep payroll at a manageable level.

It's way too much speculation to ask, "How many World Series would the Rays have won with him instead of Beckham?" It's impossible to answer and any attempt to push the argument in the direction the author wants the argument to go is arriving to a conclusion based on assumption piled on speculation. Yes, the Rays would have been a better team in 2010 and beyond if they had Posey, but to say they would have won multiple World Series is unknowable.

The Pittsburgh Pirates had the second pick, and they focused on power-hitting Vanderbilt infielder Pedro Alvarez. The Baltimore Orioles had the fourth pick, but they had selected catcher Matt Wieters the previous year, and ultimately they took University of San Diego left-hander Brian Matusz.

Again, saying that a team should NOT have selected Buster Posey is an argument I can't make. Teams in every sport pass up great players all the time. I'm not sure if you have heard, but Michael Jordan was not the #1 draft pick in the 1984 draft. But having selected Matt Wieters, who was also a college catcher, it makes sense the Orioles didn't draft Posey. That is unless they liked them both so much they wanted to see which one made it to the majors first and then trade the other. That doesn't seem like the most efficient use of resources. 

"We were taking the best player available," General Manager Dayton Moore said. "We liked Buster Posey a lot. The thing we liked about Hos, the thing that separated us, was that we felt he was going to be a plus offensive player and a plus defender. Not that we didn't think Buster Posey would. He's a great player.

And Hosmer hasn't been the great offensive player on par with what a corner infielder should be or what Buster Posey has been. He has been a very good defensive first baseman. Hosmer looked like he was going to take off during the 2014 season after hitting .302/.353/.448 with 17 home runs during 2013. This didn't happen. 

Hosmer was drafted out of high school, so his development took longer. That was of little consolation to the Royals in 2012, when Hosmer was batting .232 and Posey was the MVP, batting champion and World Series champion.

Was it consolation to the Royals in 2011 when Hosmer .293/.334/.465 with 19 home runs in 128 games while Buster Posey only played 45 games because he's a fucking catcher who got run over at the plate and injured like happens to catchers? Was it consolation to the Royals during the 2014 postseason when Hosmer hit .351/.439/.544?

I'm not arguing the Royals shouldn't want Buster Posey, it's just the whole assumption and/or gist of this article is "These teams fucked up irreparably because they didn't draft Posey and this cost them at least one World Series" when I'm not sure this is entirely true. Posey is a great player and he's a catcher, which apparently is even more impressive while ignoring he will have to change positions at some point most likely, but the Royals would not have won a World Series by now with Posey and I have no idea how many World Series the Rays would have won with Posey. Maybe one, maybe two, perhaps zero.

The Hosmer pick might yet turn out all right for the Royals. He batted .302 last year. He is batting .448 in the postseason, and he has reached base 20 times in 36 appearances.

That, and he is 25 years old. There is time. 

If Moore had a draft regret, it was not the selection of Hosmer. In 2010, the Royals liked the left-handed pitching in their system and decided to pick Cal State Fullerton infielder Christian Colon. 

They passed on the guy who has turned into the best left-hander in the American League.

"We beat ourselves up on Chris Sale a lot," Moore said.

Now not drafting Sale if the Royals liked Sale a lot, I can't get behind. I'm a fan of "You can never have too much pitching" and "Quality left-handed pitching is so hard to find so get it when you can" that I would have gone with Sale if the Royals had liked Sale the most. That's IF they liked him the most. Colon hasn't been great, but he's not been a bust on a Tim Beckham level either. He's moved slowly through the system. If the Royals had drafted Colon instead of Posey then I could see the issue, but Hosmer should not be a huge draft regret.

In 2005, the Angels selected Posey out of high school, in the 50th and final round. Posey said the Angels never made him an offer.

It was pretty clear that Posey was going to Florida State. A player with the talent that Posey showed in high school doesn't get drafted in the 50th round if MLB teams aren't very, very sure he is going to be completely unsignable and instead choose to go to college. 

Posey had told major league teams that he planned to attend college. Eddie Bane, then the Angels' scouting director, had watched Posey throw 93 mph in high school and wanted to reserve his rights if he blossomed as a pitcher that summer.

Exactly, Posey was going to college. Let's not let the "This team fucked up because they didn't draft Buster Posey" story get out of hand. If Posey was drafted in the 50th round, every MLB team passed on him 40+ times, so it would just be fair to say, "Every MLB team wishes they had drafted Buster Posey."

The Angels' first pick in 2005 was pitcher Trevor Bell, who won four major league games.

Drafting a player in the first round who was clearly going to college would have been a very dumb move for the Angels to make. I get the author wants to show the Angels drafted Posey and didn't sign him, but he wasn't going to sign and they, like every other team did that year, should not have drafted him earlier than he was drafted. The Angels did draft Peter Bourjos in the 10th round of the 2005 draft. They should get credit for that.

"I can't remember who our first pick was that year," Bane said, jokingly. "But it should have been Buster, and we should have given him whatever he wanted."

Well, unless the Angels were willing to turn their MLB team into a college where Posey could play baseball for the Florida State baseball coach with other Florida State baseball players, I don't think the Angels could have given Posey what he wanted.

And guess what else? Mike Trout should have been drafted by every MLB team prior to the point he was drafted by the Angels. Four MLB teams wish they had drafted Buster Posey, but if the Rays, Royals, Pirates, and Orioles had drafted Posey, then that doesn't mean they would have won multiple World Series by now. Posey is important to the Giants winning three World Series, but it's just not his performance that led to those three titles. Madison Bumgarner turned into Sandy Koufax during the 2014 postseason and Pablo Sandoval turned into Babe Ruth during the 2012 World Series. That helped the Giants win those World Series titles. It's pure speculation to just assume the Rays would have won multiple World Series with Posey as their catcher.

2 comments Bill Simmons Does an Article About Y2K Quarterbacks, Because Can't It Just Be 2004 Again?

As I have probably explained before, I don't cover Bill Simmons articles as much as I would like to for two reasons. (1) He posts them as late on Friday as humanly possible when I don't feel like writing and posting anything else. What's interesting is Bill used to hate how late ESPN would post his columns and that was the source of his difficulty with ESPN management when he was on Page 2, yet on Grantland he posts his Friday column usually well after lunch and more towards 5pm. (2) It takes a lot of energy to post a Bill Simmons column. It's not an excuse, but it's a hill to climb, then factor in that by the time I'm getting to Bill's column MMQB and TMQ are needing to be posted...if anyone ever wondered, that's why I don't cover Bill Simmons as much. So anyway, Bill writes about the "Y2K-compliant" quarterbacks because he, like me, wants to go back to 2004 when he cared about his writing.

Nearly 15 years later, I remember three things about Y2K. First, many people were legitimately concerned that computers would freak out at midnight,

Not just concerned, LEGITIMATELY concerned. There's a huge difference in that one sounds more serious than the other.

It was secretly disappointing when midnight came and went without an electronic catastrophe.

No, it wasn't secretly disappointing. I was legitimately not secretly disappointed.

By the way, there are only six YouTube videos in this column. Only six! Such an improvement from Bill.

And third, I remember thinking about the end of the world and being bummed out about one thing and one thing only: not that I’d be losing the chance to have kids or get married,

Because anyone who has read Bill's books or columns knows that women are nags who can only ruin a successful man's life.

not that I’d be losing my dream of building a big audience for my “Sports Guy” column,

I call bullshit on this. It's not a bad thing, but Bill was always very dedicated to building his "Sports Guy" column and his brand. He started having a small amount of success around the year 2000, and since he calls it "his dream," I'm calling bullshit.

but that I’d live and die without seeing a Boston team win a World Series or a Super Bowl.

This is your weekly reminder from Bill Simmons that the Red Sox have won multiple World Series and the Patriots have won multiple Super Bowls. No matter what, he has to call back to a time when he wasn't so spoiled by his teams' success. He made his bones whining about how cursed his teams were, so he needs to get back to that spot quickly in order to give the illusion that he's the same guy he was 15 years ago.

We’re 14 years in. The words “21st century” actually mean something. And in the 21st century, exactly 10 quarterbacks have won Super Bowls.

• Tom Brady (five times)
• Ben Roethlisberger (twice)
• Kurt Warner
• Trent Dilfer
• Brad Johnson
• Peyton Manning
• Drew Brees
• Aaron Rodgers
• Joe Flacco
• Russell Wilson

Bill, you are missing Eli M---

Fine, fine. You caught me. ELEVEN quarterbacks have won a Super Bowl in the 21st century.
 
• Tom Brady (three times)
• Ben Roethlisberger (twice)
• Eli Manning (twice)
• Kurt Warner
• Trent Dilfer
• Brad Johnson
• Peyton Manning
• Drew Brees
• Aaron Rodgers
• Joe Flacco
• Russell Wilson

You are so creative and such a jokester. The Patriots have been the most successful NFL franchise since 2000, but Bill has to whine just a little bit that they aren't more successful.

The weakest QBs? Trent Dilfer and Brad Johnson definitely “game managed” their way to titles,

Did you know that Baltimore won four straight playoff games with Dilfer completing 35 passes … total?

And now this motherfucker has the balls to run a QB camp, all while saying insanely stupid shit on ESPN like the Patriots just aren't good anymore, that teams can't win by losing games, the Panthers coaching staff wants Cam Newton to be a running back, and generally acting like he's Scottie Pippen when he's really just Luc Longley. I imagine the first lesson at Trent Dilfer's QB camp is "Go find a historically great defense and just don't turn the ball over. Success will follow."

Every time a Chiefs fan says, “I think we can win the Super Bowl with Alex Smith,” they’re really saying, “I mean, the 2002 Bucs won a Super Bowl with Brad Johnson!” I don’t know. Those were different times.

They were different times because a team could win the Super Bowl with just a historically great defense. The Seahawks won the Super Bowl last year with a historically great defense, but Russell Wilson is not Brad Johnson or Trent Dilfer. He's better than them.

The third-weakest QB on that list? Eli Manning.

I mean, it's a pretty good list with seven Hall of Fame quarterbacks on it. So being third-weakest isn't exactly a slam like Bill wants it to be.

I’m the wrong person to shepherd a “Could the 2007 Giants and 2011 Giants have won Super Bowls with any decent QB?” conversation, if only because I might intentionally injure myself. So let’s just agree that the Giants scored 38 points combined in those two Super Bowls, one of which went New York’s way because their 17th-string receiver caught the last pass of his career with his helmet.

Okay, Bill. Your teams never get lucky or fortunate. Never happened.

It’s too early to have an opinion on Russell Wilson’s Super Bowl, but the “Luck or Wilson?” debate finished filming in October. (Spoiler alert: Luck won.) Is Wilson an infinitely more athletic Brad Johnson? Is his 2014 performance suffering because his offensive line collapsed and he doesn’t have enough weapons (and not because we overrated him)?

I think Russell Wilson could use more to work with, but I also think he isn't going to be a fantastic quarterback on the level of most of the other quarterbacks on the list Bill provided that have won a Super Bowl since 2000.

The five best QBs of the 21st century, by any calculation, are Brady, Brees, Rodgers, Roethlisberger and Peyton Manning in some order.

Okay, it's settled then. Brett Favre, go home.

Why bring up that Y2K list? For one thing, if you forced me into a 21st Century QB Mount Rushmore decision, I would bump Brees before Roethlisberger. Brees has six career playoff wins, one Super Bowl win and one conference title game appearance. He spent his entire career playing home games in 75-degree weather (San Diego) or indoors (New Orleans). And the team that drafted him eventually gave up on him.

I feel like I'm taking crazy pills...I wouldn't disagree with Bill overall about where Brees has played most of his career, but I wouldn't say the Chargers "gave up" on Brees. They had drafted Rivers and did make Brees an offer to stay. If they gave up on him, they would have traded him or released him prior to drafting Rivers. The Chargers wanted to keep Brees around, so they weren't giving up on him, just simply not committing to him.

For regular season — Brees. For everything — Roethlisberger.

He’s the most underrated quarterback of the 21st century. It’s true.

No, it's not true. It's an opinion. It can be an opinion many agree with, yet it still remains as an opinion. The words you write are not facts, but opinions, even if they are well-regarded opinions from someone who holds himself in such high esteem like Bill Simmons does.

The Tahoe incident was eventually settled out of court, and the Georgia incident earned him a six-game suspension from Roger Goodell (eventually dropped to four games). Both damaged Roethlisberger’s reputation. In retrospect, every Goodell suspension seems suspect after how egregiously the commissioner botched Bountygate, then acted irresponsibly, incompetently and maybe even illegally and mendaciously after Ray Rice knocked his wife out (hopefully, we’ll have a result from the hearing about Rice’s re-suspension next week).

Careful, Bill. ESPN allows their employees to say insanely stupid shit, just don't say anything potentially 50% true about someone ESPN does business with and then dare them to suspend you.

Meanwhile, I’m pretty sure that Roethlisberger hasn’t filmed a major commercial since 2009. (I couldn’t find one on the Internet, that’s for sure.) His national profile effectively consists of 16 to 20 football games per year, dozens of press conferences and the occasional “insightful” sitdown with Bob Costas (or whomever) that never reveals anything interesting. And we’re fine with it.

Yes, "we" are fine with it. Thank God that Bill Simmons is here to speak for "us."

That 2009 incident inspired us to collectively reject the mythology of Roethlisberger’s greatness, even though so many went the other way with Kobe Bryant earlier in the decade (in an undeniably similar situation).

I do somewhat disagree with this. I think the difference is that Roethlisberger is a great quarterback, but Kobe Bryant is one of the greatest NBA players of all-time. The difference is relative. Kobe's greatness has been rejected by quite a few (points at Bill), but the fact he is one of the all-time great NBA players has helped the mythology grow in ways that Roethlisberger's just won't. Roethlisberger is great, but he isn't one of the Top 10-20 quarterbacks of all-time, while Kobe is one of the Top 10-20 NBA players of all-time.

You know when I officially realized this?

After Ben Roethlisberger proved he was great and you had time to go back and point out what "we" should have known all along and then made up a gambling theory that will be untrue in a few weeks?

In the words of Dave Dameshek quoting Jerry Orbach from Dirty Dancing, when I’m wrong, I’m wrong. Roethlisberger IS great.

Even if he doesn’t routinely throw up video-game numbers, you’d feel 100 percent comfortable riding him for any big game or any season-saving drive. 

Oh, I would feel that way? Thanks for telling me. I wasn't sure how I felt in this situation. But it turns out that I am comfortable riding Roethlisberger for any big game or any season-saving drive. These things that Bill knows about "us" that "we" don't know...

Back to the Y2K/Super Bowl thing: I brought it up because there’s another list of memorable 21st-century QBs who haven’t won a Super Bowl. Here’s that list …
 
• Rich Gannon
• Steve McNair
• Donovan McNabb
• Jake Delhomme
• Carson Palmer
• Philip Rivers
• Tony Romo
• Matt Ryan
• Colin Kaepernick
• Andrew Luck

Luck has been in the league less than three years. I get it, he hasn't won a Super Bowl, but he's memorable really only in that he will be really memorable in a few more years.

Delhomme’s topsy-turvy career peaked with 2003’s improbable hot streak — two playoff upsets, then Delhomme scaring the bejesus out of every overconfident Patriots fan during the Nipple Bowl.

I would disagree with the "improbable" part. I don't know if Delhomme was memorable or not, but he was pretty good during the 2004 and 2005 seasons. He definitely played well in the 2003 playoffs, but he also played really well during the playoffs in 2005 (well, 2 of 3 games). So Delhomme's career didn't peak during the Super Bowl, though it was a part of the peak.

As for the non-retired guys, Romo is Romo — the most polarizing QB of this century not named Michael Vick. But he could have made a Super Bowl on the right team. Same for Rivers, who’s really a better version of Romo with more kids. Ryan nearly won the NFC title in 2013, although he didn’t — so maybe that says something, too.

Matt Ryan almost made a Super Bowl, so that means something, but he didn't, so maybe that means something also. So basically the fact Matt Ryan didn't make a Super Bowl may or may not mean something. Everything is everything and something is always something.

And Luck, of anyone on that list, is the surest wager to win at least one Lombardi. Maybe sooner than we think.

I wasn't sure when "we" thought Luck would win a Super Bowl. Say I think Luck will win the Super Bowl this year. So how could he win a Super Bowl earlier than that? Huh, Bill?? HUH??? Stop using "we" as if you speak for everyone who reads your column you self-important ass.

Which brings us to Carson Palmer, who becomes The Most Underrated QB Of The 21st Century as soon as we stop underrating Roethlisberger. You might remember me making fun of Palmer in this column many, many, many times. Many times. Many, MANY times. And I stand by all of it.

Another superlative being handed down by Bill. It's one of those days for him. When in doubt, hyperbolize.

Also notice how Bill calls Carson Palmer The Most Underrated QB of the 21st Century, acknowledges he has made fun of Palmer many times and doesn't take any of it back. Bill openly admits to underrating Palmer, yet doesn't have the guts to just say "There could be a few things I was wrong about." There's only so much humility Bill can show in one column. If Palmer is underrated and Bill made fun of him, shouldn't some of those comments be taken back?

Still, no 21st-century QB had worse luck than Carson Palmer did. Barnwell covered this angle perfectly less than 13 months ago on Grantland, so I won’t rehash it here.

Palmer's ACL injury on a very good Cardinals team contributes to his bad luck. Still, I would disagree he has had bad luck in that Palmer could have chosen to play on a Bengals team with A.J. Green, a high 2nd round pick (instead of Dalton being drafted there), a quality offensive line and a good defense. He chose to demand a trade instead. So some of the bad luck was his own doing.

If you were blessed with a “Reset” button and the ability to play an athlete’s career 10 times, would the real-life outcome be the unluckiest career of those 10 times?

This is a question without a definitively provable answer. There's no reason to waste times with "what if?" questions that only go to serve a point that Bill wants to prove.

For instance, if you replayed Webber’s career 10 times, he goes down as one of the NBA’s 30 greatest players ever at least seven or eight of those times. Only three things could derail someone that talented: a major injury (happened), circumstances (happened) and bad luck (happened). If Orlando never traded Webber’s rights for Penny Hardaway’s rights and three first-round picks, he and Shaq would have destroyed everybody. (That’s bad luck.) If Webber hadn’t entered the NBA during the height of the Too Much Too Soon era, he wouldn’t have used his contract leverage to bully his way from a loaded Warriors team to a mediocre Washington team. (That’s circumstances — you never want to give a 21-year-old that kind of power, but that’s what the NBA was doing in the mid-’90s.) And if he never ruined his knee, Webber’s prime would have lasted twice as long. (The injury card, obviously.) So it took THREE different flukes to prevent Webber’s career from being as good as or better than Kevin Garnett.

But this real-life outcome wasn't the worst possible outcome. Webber could have blown his knee out during his rookie season and then never played in the NBA again. The same thing goes for Carson Palmer. What Bill presents as the worst possible outcome truly isn't the worst possible outcome. But again, Bill wants to prove a point and that's all that matters.

But one thing after another happened to him: The cheap-ass Bengals drafted him, then he blew out his knee on his first playoff pass during 2005’s breakout season, then he injured his throwing elbow in 2008, then he got traded to Siberia (the Raiders), then he landed in Arizona as the team’s 345th attempt to replace Kurt Warner with anyone competent.

Again, this isn't the worst possible outcome. Palmer could have blown his knee out during his rookie season and then hurt his elbow after that. Palmer also forced a trade to the Raiders, which along with Drew Brees taking the biggest contract offer when he was a free agent, seems to have magically become forgotten along the way. Palmer was traded because he demanded to be traded. His ending up in Oakland was a by-product of his demanding a trade and refusing to play for the Bengals.

When Barnwell posted his “Can’t-Miss Kid” article on October 18, 2013, it read like something of a football obituary. And rightly so.
 
So what happened?
 
Did Palmer read the article and go into Rocky-in-Russia mode?

Yes Bill, Grantland articles directly impact how professional athletes behave and train during the season.

Was this the all-time coincidence in the history of Grantland coincidences?
We only know that Palmer — within a few days of Barnwell’s column — suddenly transformed back into Someone You Might Be Able To Win A Super Bowl With. He’s won 12 of his last 14 starts, losing the other two by three points apiece. According to Mike Sando, he ranks sixth in QBR during that stretch (69.8, trailing only Peyton Manning, Rodgers, Rivers, Brady and Brees), and he has thrown for 3,918 yards and 27 TDs with just 11 picks.

That column also happened to be printed after Palmer had come off two straight games of playing well, as well as a soft part of the Cardinals' schedule. So he was playing well a couple of weeks before the article was written. It took Palmer a few weeks to fully grasp Arians' offense after not having been in the offense for a full year yet and he had shown signs of playing well prior to the column being written. It's all in the game log.

This isn’t one of those Josh McCown five-game rope-a-dope situations. Palmer has been playing extremely well for 13 solid months, even persevering when his receivers caught a recent case of the dropsies (mentioned here).

The Cardinals have a great coach, a great offensive line, and a great set of receivers. I think Palmer could have done something similar if he had stayed in Cincinnati.

Then immediately after writing that he was sort of wrong about Carson Palmer, but he won't totally admit it, Bill writes sentences sure to pop in his Friday NFL picks column again as a reminder of how smart he is...

But the Cardinals have some subtle omens going against them. They’re 16th in overall DVOA; they have a Pythagorean record that’s two wins lower than their real record (Barnwell Link No. 3!);⁵ and they’ve recovered nine of 14 fumbles (third-luckiest in the league) and they’re plus-10 in turnover differential. Any numbers nerd is waving a “REGRESSION!!!!!” flag right now.

Does that mean Arizona should consider throwing this week’s Rams game to be safe? Of course not. But the “Everybody Believes In Us” factor unnerves me.

Palmer got hurt, but I'm sure Bill chalk the Cardinals regression (which I'm assuming there will be some) up to the factors he lists here instead of the loss of their really underrated quarterback. 

Oh, and if I had told you 13 months ago that Carson Palmer would be leading a 2014 title contender, you would have asked which CFL team had signed him. There’s that, too.

No, I would not have.

It goes on and on and on. You can SEE them in the Super Bowl. But I believe in the Cardinals simply because they remind me of the 2003 Patriots, an exceptionally well-coached team with a knack for pulling out close games.

The Cardinals may regress, but Bill can also see them in the Super Bowl. It wouldn't concern me that Bill says both of these things, but it concerns me and I mention it only because anyone reads Bill's columns know that Bill loves to take credit for any predictions that turn out to be correct. How many times has he linked an old article where he points out something he said that ended up sounding smart? So his saying the Cardinals may regress, along with saying he can see them in the Super Bowl, leads me to believe Bill is playing both sides of the issue.

But let’s also agree that, occasionally, a football team shows up that just seems comfortable playing close games. For the Cardinals, there are six tangible reasons for this: exceptional coaching, an A-list secondary that shuts down third-and-longs, a superb red zone defense, multiple playmakers who can explode at any time, a running game that can protect tight leads, and a veteran QB who’s too old to get scared.

I’m in! I’m all in! Sign me up! I don’t care if the Cardinals have inadvertently become the “Everybody Believes In Us” team — they’re the NFC’s best football team, I believe in their tangibles and intangibles, and I even kinda-sorta-maybe believe in their QB

I'm guessing Bill was violently throwing himself off the Cardinals' bandwagon Monday morning once he knew that Drew Stanton would be driving the Cardinals' offense for the rest of the season. Without The Most Underrated Quarterback of the 21st Century that Bill has said critical things about and still really means, he probably doesn't believe the Cardinals have a chance anymore to make the Super Bowl.

Besides, in a 21st century that’s been as goofy as advertised, it makes perfect sense that Carson Palmer would start a home Super Bowl game … right? Please manage your gambling wagers accordingly.

Retract your gambling wagers immediately!

On to the Week 10 picks …

Jaguars (+7.5) over COWBOYS
 
Does anyone else love that we keep torturing the English by sending them terrible football games? They shouldn’t have messed with us in the 1700s — it’s their fault. I fully expect the Cowboys to finish 8-8 again, which means they’re blowing this game to Bad News Blake Bortles. My upset special: Jags 24, Cowboys 10.

Or not. Also, wasn't the exciting Lions-Falcons game played in London this year? Generally, the games in London haven't been great, but it's weird that Bill referred to terrible football games played in London when an exciting game was just played there.

Bill then links the YouTube video of Trent Dilfer saying the Patriots "Just aren't good anymore." It goes to show what a clown Trent Dilfer is.

Of course Bill runs some letters, because he can't write an entire column these days without a few reader emails. Someone has to produce content so Bill can talk about how much he writes, it may as well not be Bill. The emails from Bill's readers all end the same way as they do in other mailbags. Here's a sampling:

Bill, Ladies and Gentlemen, your 2015 Houston Texans!! Hook’em!

If Eli and Ben could do it twice, why can’t Rivers? NOBODY BELIEVES IN US!!

Bill's Simmonsite readers love to parrot his catch phrases. Bill and his readers have been using the same catchphrases for over a decade now...and in no way is that depressing.

San Diego’s Bye Week (-5.5) over Washington’s BYE WEEK

Q: Every analyst is jumping off the Chargers bandwagon like it’s carrying rabid dogs. Maybe it’s just out of room because it’s carrying all of Rivers’ children. Are the Chargers building themselves up to be the “nobody believes in us” team this year? They have all of the pieces — injured players that can fill the gaps, a defense that has been good when healthy, and a QB from the 2004 draft class that can catch fire. If Eli and Ben could do it twice, why can’t Rivers? NOBODY BELIEVES IN US!!

—Brian Djavaherian

BS: Glad you brought this up.

Brian, you now have Bill Simmons' approval. Consider your life now having some sort of meaning.

Right now, the Chargers are 5-4 and coming off three straight losses to a definite Super Bowl contender (Denver), a possible Super Bowl contender (Miami) and a probable 10-win team (Kansas City, a game that could have gone either way). They have a bye week to lick their wounds (and get healthy), then home games against Oakland and St. Louis. Let’s say they win those two. After that — at Baltimore, home for New England, home for Denver, at San Francisco, at Kansas City. And they can’t finish worse than 10-6.

I mean … even I don’t believe in them. And I picked them to be a Super Bowl contender.

(In other words … literally, NOBODY BELIEVES IN YOU, SAN DIEGO!!!! Keep an eye on this one.)

By the way, Bill has three AFC teams he considers as Super Bowl contenders at this point. Throw in the obvious, that he thinks the Patriots are Super Bowl contenders and his earlier love for Ben Roethlisberger and that's probably five teams in the AFC that Bill considers to be a Super Bowl contender. At this point, Bill seems to think any playoff-caliber AFC team is a Super Bowl contender.

Minnesota’s Bye Week (+8) over Indy’s Bye Week

Q: I’m sure you’ve gotten 100 emails on this, but the guy who had Adrian Peterson in my fantasy league dropped him last week. I have top priority this week so I can grab him for the stretch if his suspension is ended. This is clearly the best move from a fantasy perspective, but as a father it makes me feel ‘unclean.’ What should I do?

—Jacob, Somerville

BS: Hmmmmmm … I don’t know. Let’s ask Thom Yorke.

Bill then links "Karma Police" in a YouTube video. Screw karma. I picked up Adrian Peterson in a fantasy league all while absolutely not wanting Greg Hardy to be a part of the Carolina Panthers football team. It's fantasy, not real life. If I can draft players I don't personally like on teams I don't personally like, I can handle picking up a Top-5 running back when I have started two Browns running backs over the past two weeks.

Q: I know he isn’t there yet, but how many more holy shit plays are needed before Sammy Watkins is deserving of a nickname? We have MegaTron, so I was thinking Sammy would be MegaWatt.

—David, New York

BS: Come on, you don’t need a nickname when your first name is “Sammy,” and you definitely don’t need a nickname when you’re “Sammy Watkins.”

Bill couldn't think of a nickname to top MegaWatt, so he decided that Watkins doesn't need a nickname.

But you know what we DO need a nickname for? Anytime Mike Carey awkwardly breaks down any review of one of Jerome Boger’s atrocious calls. It’s like the streams crossing in Ghostbusters. Send me the best nickname and I’ll run it next week.

Everybody send Bill a list of nicknames and then he will spend most of the week trying to top the nickname that his readers have come up with. The smartest, most clever guy in the room? It has to be Bill at all times.

Andrew in Ann Arbor: “Jim Caldwell’s weekday coaching deserves a nomination for Sneaky Good Watch status. The Lions commit considerably fewer dumb penalties, turn the ball over less, and are generally a much less stupid football team this year. Under Schwartz facing the kind of adversity they had the last few weeks, they would have fallen apart and been blown out. That said, Jim Caldwell’s gameday coaching definitely needs to be included in the Shaky Watch this week. He punted on 4th-and-6 from the opponent’s 37 down 14, kicked a FG from the 2 down 21, kicked another FG from the 4 down 11, decided to settle for a 48 yard FG despite the Lions kicking woes, and most amazingly ran the ball with no timeouts left on third down and 25 seconds left. Which means his plan was to sprint the field goal team onto the field, which almost never works.

Yeah Andrew, but you forgot about the mind games and dinner Caldwell has with his players. It's the key to the team's success this season!

SAINTS (-6) over Niners

I can’t believe the Saints have a chance to go from 2-4 to 12-4. They’re catching the Niners at a perfect time, right when I’m getting emails like this …

Q: My brother and I just realized what the Jim Harbaugh era is. It’s mirroring M. Night Shyamalan’s career.

2011 – NFC Championship Game = Sixth Sense. (Wow that was awesome! Didn’t see that coming.)

2012 – Superbowl = Unbreakable. (Hey that was solid! Can’t wait for many more like this. The guy can’t miss. BEST COACH/DIRECTOR OUT THERE RIGHT NOW!)

2013 – NFC Championship Game = Signs. (Solid, but got a little bumpy. Next one will be better for sure.)

2014 – 4-4 so far = The Village. (Um WTF was that? Seriously???)

2015 = Lady in the Water (HOLY HELL!!! GET ME OUT OF HERE!!)

We need to get rid of Harbaugh ASAP! Just let the Jets have 2016 – THE YEAR OF THE HARBAUGH CRAPPENING.

—Jay Cohen, San Francisco

And naturally the 49ers beat the Saints at home causing this forced comparison to sound even more forced. What was that victory in this comparison to Shyamalan's career? Definitely not "The Last Airbender," not "After Earth," and beating the Saints at home isn't "The Village." So maybe Bill and Jay can shit all over the timeline and say it's Shyamalan writing "Stuart Little." Or else, it's just not a good comparison.

JETS (+6) over Steelers

Q: I can’t believe you wrote an article in which you bitch about the Patriots. Try being a Jets fan. Fuck you.

—Dan D.

BS: Didn’t you read what just I wrote? You’re getting M. Night Harbaughlan! Things are looking up! By the way, I think the Jets somehow cover this one. Can’t explain it. The line is suspiciously, curiously low for reasons that CANNOT be explained.

In hindsight, it's explained by the Jets winning the football game.

Q: Watching the Sunday Night Football game and listening to Al and Cris marvel at the incredible “James Harrison was retired three weeks ago and now is somehow playing like one of the best linebackers in the game” story for the 50th time that quarter, I couldn’t be the only one to come up with an easy explanation for that “somehow?”
 
—Zach H., Cleveland

BS: The Cleveland-Pittsburgh rivalry, everybody! It’s heating up!

This is ridiculous. Only MLB has a problem with PED's. Football has not ever had, nor ever will have, an issue with players using PED's. NFL players are just naturally huge individuals with muscles all over their body. Roger Goodell certainly has never put his head in the sand because he's no Bud Selig.

Quickly on the Rams: They’re the NFL version of me as a golfer. I started playing golf again this year after a self-imposed 20-year hiatus, which is actually a good story that I will tell some other time. In the past six months, I’ve played 15 times. My game is slowly coming back. Right now, I’m shooting between 95 and 100 from the blues. And every round is the same — I have four awesome holes and four horrible ones, with a slew of bogeys and double bogeys in between. That makes me a good best-ball partner as long as I’m playing with someone good.

That's a great story, Bill. I was just getting ready to ask about how your golf game was going. That is very interesting, please tell me more.

That’s the Rams — you’d want them for best ball, but not real life. During a 16-game season, they’re going to bogey or double bogey eight holes, fall apart on four holes and overachieve on four holes. They already birdied Week 7 (the Seattle game) and shot par in Week 9 (the Niners win). In Week 10, I see them crushing a great drive on a par-4, just missing the approach, then three-putting for a frustrating bogey.

As usual, Bill takes up more words than required to state something. Rather than just saying, "The Rams are inconsistent," Bill has to use an overly-long analogy takes up more space and sounds smarter than just calling the Rams inconsistent.

That’s right, Seattle. You know I love your city and you know I hate how OKC stole the Sonics from you. But save for opening night, your crowds have sucked this season. Peyton Manning went 80 yards in like three seconds to force OT on you. You lost to Dallas at home. You couldn’t blow out the lowly Raiders last week, for God’s sake. Are you suffering from Pink Hat Syndrome (a.k.a. too many bandwagon fans)? Are you taking this stuff for granted now? What’s up?

What is partially up is that Seattle fans can be loud, but they can't make up for the Seahawks not playing well. I realize Bill thinks that fans have as much of a direct, immediate impact on the outcome of a sporting event as the two teams playing on the court/field, but it's not entirely true. There is probably an impact on the opposing team's performance, but to wonder why the Seattle fans can't blow out the Raiders at home is just silly.

Two of Grantland’s finest employees are Sean Fennessey and Chris Ryan. They happen to be close friends, they occasionally drive to and from work together, and they can even communicate in staff meetings just by glancing at one another. Fennessey is a long-suffering Jets fan; Ryan is a long-suffering Eagles fan.

At this point, Bill thinks the fan of any sports team is "long-suffering" if his/her team hasn't won a title in the last 12 months. Almost everyone is long-suffering according to Bill. 

In 2014, the Sanchize landed in Philly as Chip Kelly’s reclamation project. Last week, Nick Foles broke his collarbone and Sanchez saved the day against Houston. He looked good enough that some people (a) picked him up in fantasy football, and (b) wondered if he could have a Plunkett-esque rejuvenation in Philly. And even if Chris Ryan will deny it to the death, deep down, he’s talking himself into the parallel “I mean, Sanchez did play in an AFC title game and beat the Patriots in the playoffs on the road” and “If anyone can turn him around, it’s Chip Kelly” narratives. Again, he’d never admit this. But he’s thinking it. 

And Fennessey? He’s just sitting there with a big smile on his face, like someone in college with a crazy ex who just found out that his or her good friend might be falling for that crazy ex. Should I intervene here? Nahhhhhhhhh.

This is a dumb comparison. If a person had a good friend who was falling for his crazy ex then I would hope the one friend would talk the other friend out of it. I realize that Bill is desperately trying to appeal to his target demographic by talking about boy-girl issues, but this just seems like a pretty forced (and stereotypically Bill Simmons) comparison.

This Week: 1-0
Last Week: 7-6
Season: 96-39

I went 58-0 from Week 4 through Week 7. Also, Roger Goodell had no idea what happened inside the elevator with Ray Rice until September 8.

This is Bill wanting to (wink-wink) remind his readers that he got suspended for three weeks because he is a rebel and says things other people don't have the guts to say...or at least says things everyone else has said, but he did it in a more public way in order to gain attention. 

11 comments Movie Quotes to Determine Who "Won" the NBA Offseason That Hasn't Ended Yet...Guess Who Wrote this Column

Bill Simmons is back to write his column for the month. This may shock you, this column is not a mailbag, but he does use one of his not-timeless (what is the opposite of timeless?) gimmicks and uses quotes from a movie to tell us who won and lost the NBA offseason. Since this column was written in late July and all, it appears Bill thinks the NBA offseason is completely over and nothing else will happen until November. Bill uses quotes from the movie "Midnight Run," which apparently Bill has decided is a movie that has interesting quotes in it. I have seen the movie and probably couldn't quote one line, but maybe I haven't watched the movie repeatedly and that's why I can't remember these quotes. It's interesting, because Bill provides links to YouTube videos (these YouTube videos tend to run throughout his columns these days as a way to kill space) for these quotes. So it seems he doesn't expect the reader to remember these quotes either. As I've said before, it's the same gimmick Bill always uses, but simply with a different movie.

This is a choppy feeling column for me, I don't know if "Midnight Run" has enough quotes to fill out a column like this. My favorite movie ("Goodfellas"...there's a shock, no?) probably doesn't have enough memorable quotes to fill up an entire column either, so it's not a knock against "Midnight Run." It feels like Bill spends some time explaining the set up for the quote and what the quote means in terms of the movie for the reader. That's never a good sign that you have to explain the quotes that you are basing each part of your column on. It's like the old joke, that if you have to explain the joke then it isn't funny. A lot of this column is filler where Bill talks about what a great movie "Midnight Run" is, so I will obviously skip those parts.

Midnight Run? It's an outlier, a timeless classic, our least-dated '80s movie.

There is no way to measure this. Please stop making things up. Thank you.

Watching it all these years later, only a couple things feel rusty: The cars, the lack of cell phones, Robert De Niro's cheesy leather jacket, the relentless cigarette smoking and, most strikingly, the fact that anyone could bring guns on airplanes like they were Altoids. Everything else feels fresh. It's just as funny as it was 25 years ago,

I watched it a few years ago. It was funny, but to call it a classic probably stretching the term "classic" to it's very limits. It's a really good movie. "Classic" depends on your definition of the word. I'm not sure "Midnight Run" fits my definition of a classic.

Fine, I'll concede it was a good movie, but it's not that quotable in my opinion. No one cares about my opinion though, since I am the one who posts a weekly NFL roundup that has a quote from "Dumb and Dumber" in the title.

When I retweeted Sepinwall and added "Is this Moron Number One? Put Moron Number Two on the phone" (one of Dennis Farina's many classic moments), my Twitter replies quickly filled with other Farina one-liners. That made me wonder if I'd found the right medium for my annual "Movie Quotes As Awards" breakdown of the NBA's busiest offseason month.

I can't emphasize this enough. Bill is absolutely out of column ideas. He gets his ideas from Twitter and how many replies he gets to a Retweet. At this point Bill is basically saying, "What will get my readers to read my column?" and then he writes a column that gets people to read his column. It used to be Bill would write a column and the content of the column is why it got a lot of pageviews, but now Bill is basically heading for pageviews and ignoring whether the content works for a column. I'm surprised he hasn't written a column about boy bands yet and put "One Direction" and "Bieber" in the title to ensure the column gets read.

At that point, you would have bet anything that Farina was going to become a star — a funnier James Gandolfini, basically — only it never happened. That's Hollywood for you. Some people never find the right part, and there's more luck involved than you'd think. 

Bill knows people who work in Hollywood so that's why he knows this, he used to work on Jimmy Kimmel's show, and it is all so tired to hear now. I personally knew there was luck to finding the right part, but I appreciate the Hollywood insider advice. There is also luck involved in becoming whatever it is that Bill Simmons has become. He's not a writer because writers actually write more than once every two weeks. He doesn't really talk about sports anymore and his knowledge of sports outside of the NBA seems fairly limited. He is essentially a guy who does a podcast, executive produces "30 for 30" and hosts ESPN's NBA pregame show. I'm not sure what to call him.

Without further ado, here's Part 1 of winners and losers from the NBA's most hectic month.
"Marvin! Marvin! Look out!"

One of the movie's best running jokes (Jack Walsh repeatedly tricking a rival bounty hunter into turning around so Jack can sucker punch him)

Again, if you have to explain the quote from the movie, it doesn't lend well to handing out an award based on this quote. Actually, Bill probably prefers to explain the movie quotes from "Midnight Run" because it allows him to kill space and trick his readers into believing he has written two separate columns of readable content. Bill's writing is like a Peter Jackson movie, where there is plenty of content that could be cut but he is too focused on quantity over quality.

Have you ever impulsively bought a piece of furniture you didn't really need — like a coffee table or something — and within three weeks, you begrudgingly realize that it doesn't fit in with everything else in the house? And that you blew it? And should stick that dumb purchase in the garage, where it belongs? But you get all stubborn about it, so that coffee table lingers in your house for an extra three years before you finally suck it up and do something about it?

It takes Bill a paragraph to write, "Have you ever bought a piece of furniture and refused to admit you didn't need it?" He refuses to just say something and has to describe what he wants to say in order to (you guessed it) kill space.

That's Perkins for Sam Presti. He had multiple chances to stick Perk in the garage and just wouldn't do it.

A Perk defender would say that Perk has one undeniable skill: He can guard Dwight Howard better than anyone. My response: Do you really need to pay someone $9 million a year to defend someone who takes 11 shots a game and misses 50 percent of his free throws?

If the Thunder end up playing the Houston Rockets in the NBA playoffs, then yes, you would need to pay Perkins to defend Howard. Maybe not $9 million per year, but if the Thunder had not paid Perkins that amount then another team would have. Plus, Howard misses 43% of his free throws, not 50%. 

One of Marvin's best quotes goes to the Pacers, who kept David West at a fair price (three years, $36 million); brought back the Basketball Jesus (infinity years, a lifetime of basketball salvation); re-signed Frank Vogel (and just in time, because the post-Doc Celtics would have jumped on him); laid some major "Hey, Paul George, we have 80 million reasons we think you should stay" groundwork; and improved a comically ineffective bench by importing Chris Copeland, Luis Scola, and C.J. Watson. Oh, and either Danny Granger or Danny Granger's Expiring Contract is coming back — they'll get an asset either way. Translation: The Pacers are going to contend for the title again. That wasn't a one-year fluke.

You mean a two year fluke, right? The Pacers looked like they could contend with the Heat two years before in the 2012 Eastern Conference Semifinals and managed to get a 3-seed in those 2012 NBA Playoffs. So it's really been two years since the Pacers have contended in the Eastern Conference.

The best scene with Moron No. 1 and Moron No. 2: when they're at the phone booth and Moron No. 1 is getting yelled at by Jimmy as an oblivious Moron No. 2 is fake-punching him. This movie is filled with sneaky-great moments like that one. So good.

I watched the scene again and Moron No. 1 isn't oblivious Moron No. 2 is punching him. I don't know where Bill gets it from that Moron No. 1 is oblivious to this. I thought it was clear from the video that Moron No. 1 knows Moron No. 2 is punching him.

So Minnesota finally dumped David Kahhhhhhhhn and replaced him with Flip Saunders, who promptly traded a quarter (Trey Burke) for a dime (Shabazz Muhammad) and a nickel (Gorgui Dieng),

Or as it could been seen, he traded an undersized point guard for a guy who has holes but can points on the board and a power forward who can hopefully replace some of what Kevin Love does when Love leaves as a free agent. If the Timberwolves had drafted Trey Burke then Bill would have made a joke about the T-Wolves drafting yet another point guard.

By Timberwolvey standards, those moves weren't THAT bad; they might actually turn out to be half-decent. I mean, except for the part where they gave away Trey Burke to beef up their D-League team.

And what were the Timberwolves going to do with Burke again? They have a point guard and he is too small to be a shooting guard. So....there's that.

"I have to tell you, a restaurant is a very tricky investment — over half of them go out of business in the first six months. If I were your accountant, I'd have to strongly advise you against it."
"You're not my accountant."
"I realize I'm not your accountant. [Pause.] I'm just saying … if I were your accountant … "

By the way, this is how the spacing in Bill's column ended up looking. Does he not have an editor? This is very, very hard to read without spaces between each quote.

To Dwight Howard, our trickiest investment of the summer of 2013. I covered every reason why I'd be afraid to pay him max money last May, but kudos to Dwight for making a clever basketball decision. 

This is the tricky tightrope that Bill has to walk. He has written a column basically saying no team should sign Dwight Howard for the max, but then he also has to slobber all over Daryl Morey for being such a genius in setting out a plan to sign Dwight Howard. It's a tough spot. So it appears Bill has come up with his middle ground by saying, "Howard probably isn't worth max money, but he chose the best place for him to go in Houston." Bill did say in his column on Howard that Houston was the best place for Howard to land, but simply because Daryl Morey is such a genius. So I would have to accept Morey is a genius, which I don't really, to accept this reasoning.

He wagered on a top-10 player (James Harden); a top-five GM (Daryl Morey);

I respect Daryl Morey and if he is a top-five GM then that is purely because the other GM's in the NBA are so bad. Morey became the Rockets General Manager in 2007. Since then the team has had the following records:

2007-2008: 55-27 (Lost in the first round of the playoffs as the 5th seed)
2008-2009: 53-29 (Lost in the first round of the playoffs as the 5th seed...WRONG! For some reason when I did research on this I missed that the Rockets lost the Trail Blazers. It turns out both Bill and I need an editor. I don't think it ruins my overall point about Morey though.)
2009-2010: 42-40 (Missed playoffs)- 9th seed
2010-2011: 43-29 (Missed playoffs)- 9th seed
2011-2012: 34-32 (Missed playoffs)- 9th seed
2012-2013: 45-37 (Lost in the first round of the playoffs as the 8th seed)

In six years as a General Manager, Morey's teams have never won a playoff series and have missed the playoffs in half of those six seasons. The Rockets had their problems when Morey took over, but it has taken six years to get to the point where the Rockets have a chance at better than a 5th seed in the Western Conference. Granted, Morey stole Harden from the Thunder, but he also drafted a player who is terrified of flying (Royce White) and his teams have missed the playoffs as often as they have made the playoffs. Oh, and he basically bet the next 2-3 years of the team on Dwight Howard choosing Houston when he became a free agent. Howard chose Houston, but I'm not entirely sure Morey had a backup plan. Also, by signing Howard he has alienated Omar Asik, who is a quality NBA center himself.

I like Morey and I think he is a good GM. I'm not sure I could put a NBA GM in the top-five based purely on reputation when his team hasn't won a playoff series during his entire time as the team's GM.

But what if he's never going to be anything beyond the player we watched last season, a 17-13 guy with no offensive touch who isn't a dominant defender anymore?

A 17-13 guy is very, very valuable.

Can you build a title contender around someone who isn't obsessed with winning and doesn't raise his game when it matters, but does want every spoil that goes with being a superstar? Ideally, you want Dwight as your second-best guy:

Here is what Bill Simmons wrote just a few lines ago:

He wagered on a top-10 player (James Harden); 

So the Rockets ARE NOT betting on Howard being their best player in Bill's own opinion. We know Bill doesn't consider Dwight Howard to be a top-ten player, but he considers James Harden to be a top-ten player. So therefore, in Bill's own opinion the Rockets aren't counting on Howard to be the best player on the team. This despite the fact Bill just wrote down you ideally want Howard as your second-best guy while second-guessing the Rockets' signing of Howard (and indicating Howard would be the best player on the Rockets team). Bill can't even keep his own opinions and arguments consistent.

"This thing is gonna give me a heart attack before it's over. I know I'm gonna get a heart attack."

To Morey, who rebuilt the Rockets into a championship contender without bottoming out, finishing under .500 or getting a top-seven lottery pick. 

Don't you enjoy how Bill arbitrarily stops at a "top-seven lottery pick"? This seems like a pretty arbitrary stopping point. The Rockets were the 9th best team in the Western Conference for three straight years and remember just a few weeks ago Bill said this:

In the NBA, you want to be either really good or really bad. You never want to land between those two "reallys" for long. You don't want to be squeezed into the no. 8 seed or keep finishing 12th or 13th in every lottery.

Take a wild, wild guess where the Rockets have picked in the first round over the six years since Daryl Morey took over as the GM:

2007: 26th
2008: 25th
2009: none
2010: 14th
2011: 14th, 23rd
2012: 12th, 16th, 18th
2013: none

Which playoff spot have the Rockets gotten since Morey took over? 5th, 5th, and 8th (last year). 

So basically the Rockets under Bill's GM idol (Morey) have been close to the team he warns NBA teams from being. So this Rockets team that Bill now considers an NBA title contender had a very similar profile to the type of team he previously warned NBA teams against becoming. I don't blame inconsistency for this. I blame the fact that Bill makes shit up as he goes along. Bill tends to make short-term statements that prove his immediate point and then eventually makes up another rule or makes another statement that contradicts this previous statement he made. We all make statements that in some way contradict something we previously said, but Bill is seemingly contradicting a statement he made less than a month ago. He calls the Rockets a championship contender, yet they had the profile of team he previously said teams in the NBA don't want to have.

Last summer, as he stubbornly stuck to his "I'm just gonna keep collecting assets and this is gonna work out, I swear!" plan, it seemed more likely that his 2014 tagline would read "Daryl Morey writes three columns a week for Grantland" than "Daryl Morey is the GM of the Houston Rockets, who just clinched the no. 1 seed in the West."

Considering Morey's record with the Rockets they are more likely to get the 8th seed in the West or miss the playoffs entirely. If the Rockets get the #1 seed in the West I could entertain the idea of Morey as a top-five GM.

You know what happened next: The Clippers blinked, the Doc trade got revived and finished, and the Clippers were offering Chris 107 million reasons to play for him. Crisis averted. The lesson, as always: Chris Paul runs the Clippers.

(Cut to Vinny Del Negro nodding wistfully.)

The whole "cut to Person X who nods" hasn't been funny or creative for almost a decade now. Yet, Bill won't stop. You know what happens to writers who use the same jokes over and over? What happens is they turn into Rick Reilly.

And I need to break down complicated "What ifs." Now that Howard's situation is settled, it's clear that David Stern's 2011 veto of the Chris Paul trade unleashed more league-altering "What ifs" than just about anything that's happened since 2003's "What if Memphis had gotten the no. 1 pick instead of Cleveland?"

"What ifs" are as useless as they are space-filling. Needless to say, Bill loves them.

If Stern allows the initial three-team trade, then (a) the Lakers remain contenders; (b) it's much more likely Dwight stays in L.A.; (c) Houston gets Pau Gasol and doesn't keep enough leftover assets to make the Harden trade;⁷ (d) OKC can't find the right Harden trade, keeps him and maybe wins the title last year; (e) maybe the incredible Heat-Spurs Finals never happens; (f) maybe OKC deals Harden last month to Cleveland for a Godfather offer along the lines of "the no. 1 and no. 19 picks plus Dion Waiters," then takes Victor Oladipo first; (g) Lob City never happens; (h) Doc Rivers never jumps from Boston to the Clippers; (i) the Celtics probably don't blow things up (and make Brooklyn better); (j) instead of bottoming out and landing Anthony Davis, the 2012 Hornets end up being half-decent (which blows up the 2012 AND 2013 drafts, too); and (k) Kobe doesn't play too many minutes last season (and maybe he doesn't blow out his Achilles, and maybe Kareem's scoring record would be in real jeopardy … )

Yet none of these things happened, so we move on...

Bill is consistently mystified by "the butterfly effect." Yes, changing one event tends to change a chain of events.

"I can't do it! I can't … these things go down! THESE THINGS GO DOWN!" 

To Aldridge, who's been dancing around a trade request all summer without making one. Why are People Who Know Things wondering if he's maneuvering to get to Chicago to play with Derrick Rose? You're not gonna believe this, but Rose's agent also represents Aldridge … that's right, the one, the only Arn Tellem. Keep an eye on this one.

Keep an eye on Aldridge going to Chicago? Thanks for the advice Bill. Too bad this was reported by various media outlets a month or more ago. But thanks for taking a month-old trade rumor and then acting like you have some inside information on this trade going down.

One of Jack Walsh's finest moments goes to the Spurs, because how the hell could this go to anyone BUT the Spurs???? I'm not even a Spurs fan and I can't stop thinking about it. One rebound away? Five-point lead with 28.2 seconds to go? Ray Allen hitting what may have been the greatest shot in NBA history?

Bill is going to need to take a breather. Ray Allen's shot was a great shot, but it may have been the greatest shot in NBA history? No thanks.

Instead of blowing things up, they brought back Tiago Splitter (four years, $36 million) and Manu Ginobili (two years, $14 million), then flipped Gary Neal for Marco Belinelli (always destined to be a Spur).

Translation: We came too far. Toooooooo far. We're too close.

Wow! This quote from an 80's movie perfectly fits the NBA situation Bill is describing. It's almost like that's the entire point of this column.

To new teammates Metta World Peace and J.R. Smith, because these are the types of conversations they'll probably be having in the Knicks locker room every week.

They also spawned the NBA's unofficial Two Knuckleheads Rule: You can win if you're counting on one knucklehead … as long as you don't give him someone to hang out with

There's really never too many knuckleheads in the NBA at the same time, so I'm not sure this completely made up rule is an actual rule or just a result of a lack of knuckleheads to spread among the NBA teams.

Plus, the 1988-1989 Pistons had Bill Laimbeer, Dennis Rodman, and Rick Mahorn on the roster and I recall that team winning an NBA Title. Fine, maybe Rodman wasn't a knucklehead quite yet, but Laimbeer and Mahorn were well-known for committing hard fouls (which is why Bill is calling J.R. Smith a knucklehead in this situation). So Bill's completely made up rule already has been proven incorrect.

The funny backstory here: Charlotte ended Boston's post-Rondo winning streak last February because Mullens exploded for the game of his life (25 points, 18 rebounds, four 3s). Now he's on Doc's team! There's no question those two events are related. 

I wouldn't even come close to calling this a "backstory" when the real story is as vanilla as "B.J. Mullens signed with the Clippers and one time he had a good game against the Celtics when Mullens' new head coach was the head coach for the Celtics."  

But if you think the Celtics were happy with how this Doc saga played out — or any insinuation that one of the league's most lavish franchises wanted to lose a top-five coach just to save a few bucks (and not because they didn't want to pay $7 million a year to someone who didn't want to be there anymore) — please note that they took out a full-page Boston Globe ad earlier this month thanking Paul Pierce and Kevin Garnett. We're still waiting on the full-page ad for Doc.

This would be a good point except I can't think of a time when a team has taken out a full-page ad thanking a coach for his time with the team when he retires, much less for a coach who goes from that team to another NBA team while still on good terms. So it isn't like teams usually take out a full-page ad for a coach. I'm not sure the Bulls or Lakers took out an ad thanking Phil Jackson for winning all of those titles, so I don't know why the Celtics would take out an ad thanking Doc Rivers even if the two sides parted on good terms. So I don't think the lack of a full-page ad really says much about what the Celtics think about Rivers. Players get a full-page ad, coaches don't.

"Is this gonna upset me?"
"I think it's safe to say that."

What a memorable quote!

If you clicked on these links, these "Midnight Run" quotes are all pretty generic sounding things. I know the movie was a good one, but it feels like stretching to take quotes from the movie and use them for a two-part "NBA winners and losers" column.

For the unforgettable press conference in which a bummed-out Kris Humphries, a delighted-to-be-overpaid Keith Bogans and a possibly suicidal MarShon Brooks were introduced to the Boston media by a deflated Danny Ainge and a shell-shocked Brad Stevens two weeks after the big Brooklyn-Boston trade.

But remember, Bill said the Lakers should copy the Celtics rebuilding plan. Acquire players in return for Hall of Famers that don't want to be in Boston, that's a great plan. I can't wait for the Celtics plan to go awry and hear Bill's excuse for why that happened. I'm sure it will involve a half-assed theory he makes up on the spot.

Now onto Part 2 of this column. In Part 2 Bill writes about "Midnight Run" as much as possible and goes off on various tangents to cover up for his lack of original sports-related material. You can't entirely blame Bill, because he doesn't want to write. He wants to be famous and he wants to rub elbows with celebrities. Writing was a springboard to the life he wants, but now he's stuck writing because his lemming followers want to keep reading what he writes. I believe that's why we get these uninspired columns that are the same song but a different verse from what Bill has been writing for over a decade now.

I want to make five more points about one of my favorite movies ever.  

1. I can't remember another comedy using F-bombs better than Midnight Run.

Not wanting to wait too long to contradict himself, Bill contradicts himself in this very same paragraph.

If you made an F-Bomb Movie Mount Rushmore, Midnight Run probably gets the no. 4 spot behind Scarface, Goodfellas and Reservoir Dogs.

But...you just said...no other movie used F-bombs...so why would "Midnight Run" be...it doesn't make sense...to have it be no. 4 on...on the F-Bomb Movie Mount Rushmore.

(Fine, he says "comedy" in regard to the F-bombs, though I would argue I laughed a couple times during "Reservoir Dogs" so the fact I can't read can be overshadowed by the fact "Reservoir Dogs" was somewhat funny, no?..."Midnight Run" still isn't the best comedy in terms of using F-bombs)

2. Since 1996, I've been to Vegas probably 25 or 30 times. And there wasn't a single time when I walked through McCarran Airport that I didn't want to scream at the top of my lungs, "SERRANO'S GOT THE DISKS! SERRANO'S GOT THE DISKS!"

This probably says more about you than it says about the movie.

5. When you consider (a) how shameless Hollywood is, (b) how few good ideas Hollywood has, (c) how terrific De Niro and Grodin were together, and (d) the movie's second (and more enduring) wave of popularity once it started making the rounds on cable, it's surprising that Universal didn't rope De Niro and Grodin into doing a sequel. How easy would that have been? Serrano gets out of jail, blows up Jack's coffee shop and vows revenge on the Duke, followed by the Duke and Jack teaming up to get rid of him? Come on.

This idea does sound so terrible that Hollywood would make it. 

Fortunately for the Raptor Truthers, they suddenly have an accomplished CEO (Tim Leiweke) and a top-five GM (Masai Ujiri).

So we have two of Bill's top-five GM's that have been mentioned so far. He's leaving out the GM's for the following teams:

San Antonio
Indiana
Miami
Oklahoma City
Boston
Los Angeles

and probably two or three other successful teams. I find it interesting of these six teams only three of them have what Bill would consider a top-five GM. I have a sneaky feeling that Bill will change his mind and over the next year call 7-8 NBA GM's as being a top-five GM.

"You can start by shutting up. I know you all of two minutes and I already don't like you."
"Gee, that's too bad. I reallllly like you."

One of my favorite throwaway exchanges 

It sounds like a good portion of the exchanges in "Midnight Run" are throwaway exchanges. It doesn't change the quality of the movie, but I feel like I have to call into question the quotability of the film.

As for the coffee/tea exchange, that's one of my favorite Grodin moments and Reason No. 79 why he should have snared a Best Supporting Oscar nomination (and would have, if the Academy had any semblance of a sense of humor).

Kline ended up winning the Oscar — for a comedy part, no less 

What Bill wrote in Part 1 of this column in reference to Dennis Farina:

Two years later, he stole every one of his scenes in Midnight Run and could have been nominated for an Oscar, but since Academy Awards voters don't respect or appreciate comedies, 

But Kevin Kline won an Oscar for his role in a comedy film. So maybe Academy Award voters do sometimes respect and appreciate comedies, but they just don't appreciate or respect the performances Bill thinks should be respected and appreciated? But no, Bill will now admit this contradiction, as if this makes it not a contradiction or something. Admitting you are contradicting yourself doesn't let you off the hook for the contradiction.

which both ruins my point (occasionally, the Academy WILL notice a comedy) and reinforces it (why embrace Kline but ignore De Niro and Grodin?).

Yeah, your point is not reinforced at all. It's just the Academy didn't like De Niro and Grodin's performance as much as they liked Kevin Kline's performance. The fact someone doesn't agree with you about De Niro and Grodin doesn't mean your point about comedies not being appreciated is reinforced. It means the Academy thought you were wrong. I do realize being wrong isn't something Bill Simmons has ever considered.

Grodin and Farina should have snared two of the shaky Guinness/Landau/Phoenix spots.

That would be three nominations for comedies in the Best Supporting Actor category. The Academy would go from ignoring comedies to overloading this category with actors from comedies.

Please. Just a classic "Let's take care of an old guy who's never been nominated before, especially because THIS MOVIE IS SERIOUS AND HAS SUBTITLES!!!" Oscars vote. If De Niro isn't getting that spot, then give it to Tom Cruise for Rain Man — that movie doesn't work unless he carries every scene, plays off Hoffman and makes you eventually like Charlie Babbitt (who's an inconsiderate asshole for a solid hour of that movie). 

Remember back when this article was about the winners and losers of the NBA offseason? It seems like a decade ago doesn't it?

You can't vote Rain Man for Best Picture (yes, it won) without recognizing Cruise. 

Yes, you can, especially when Dustin Hoffman was nominated for "Rain Man." The Academy doesn't have to recognize every actor in a movie simply because that movie was nominated for Best Picture. Hoffman got nominated, so therefore even if we assume an actor from the Best Picture nominee has to get nominated (which is a stretch to me), then this requirement is met because Hoffman was nominated for "Rain Man."

At the time, I criticized the Magic for not getting Andrew Bynum and made multiple jokes about then-new Orlando GM Rob Hennigan being overmatched. 

Let me guess, "top-five GM Rob Hennigan," isn't overmatched now?

"What should be of paramount importance to you right now is not the phone calls, it's the fact that you're gonna spend 10 years for impersonating a federal agent."
"Ten years for impersonating a fed, huh?"
"Ten years."
"How comes no one's after you?"

What editor told Bill to not separate these quotes with a double space? I really do find this hard to read.

To me, for doing such a mediocre impersonation of a wannabe NBA GM in this column. I wouldn't have done any better than most of these failed guys. Well, except for David Kahn. I would have done better than him. 

A little self-awareness from Bill. That's shocking to me. He openly campaigned for the Bucks and the Timberwolves GM job, so I find it odd he doesn't seem to think he couldn't do better than John Hammond. Not that I am complaining of course, but I didn't think Bill was self-aware enough to realize he couldn't do as good of a job as these NBA GM's do.

Imagine a crunch-time unit of Kaman, Gasol, Young, a still-recovering Kobe and 40-year-old Steve Nash, with the immortal Mike D'Antoni coaching them. Has there ever been a more abominable defensive team? Their opponents could just run offenses in the form of a layup line. Go, Jimmy Boy Buss! Keep doing the damned thing!

That's Jason Whitlock's signature-ish phrase. Let's not use it, please.

The riskiest part of the movie goes to this summer's riskiest team: The Warriors, who sacrificed two first-rounders to shed enough cap space for Andre Iguodala (signed to a very fair four-year, $48 million deal). I judge every contender's move by this question: Are you adding someone who could have played big minutes in the pressure cooker that I attended in Miami during Game 6 and Game 7 of the Finals?

This is another example of the continually moving metrics that Bill uses. He stated LAST offseason he will judge players by whether they could have played major minutes in the 2012 NBA Finals between the Thunder and the Heat. This metric no longer applies apparently and all players should be judged on whether that player could play big minutes during the 2013 NBA Finals. This is one reason why Bill would not be a good GM. He would be constantly reactive to changes in the NBA and then make knee-jerk moves in response to these changes. I wonder if Bill realizes he makes these judgments and then immediately forgets about them? I know his loyal readers don't know Bill does this because they treat him as if every word written is the verifiable truth and wouldn't dare question any contradictions he might happen to write.

We need an Odd Man Out here; unfortunately, it's going to be Barnes, who showed significant promise in the San Antonio series as an athletic 3/4 tweener (à la Kawhi Leonard).

Harrison Barnes has very few things in common with Kawhi Leonard, outside of the fact they are both minorities, both are tall and both play in the NBA. They play different types of games. I don't see it.

These Warriors will rely on him in shorter stints, probably as the best bench player. I'm not sure he's wired that way.

I don't know. I saw a lot of Harrison Barnes when he played for Carolina and he almost seems best suited to come off the bench or be a borderline starter where he can play big minutes but isn't necessarily counted on to score a ton of points. That's just me, but I think Barnes could thrive off the bench.

Why didn't Cleveland pick Victor Oladipo first, trade the no. 19 pick for Thomas Robinson (as he was being fire-saled by Houston), take Isaiah Canaan 31st (a potential impact bench guard for one-tenth the price of Jack), then either make a run at Pau Gasol (for Anderson Varejao's expiring contract plus a future pick) or Nikola Pekovic (with a monster free-agent offer)?

They didn't pick Oladipo because they picked Waiters last year and had a bigger need at small forward. They didn't trade the No. 19 pick for Thomas Robinson because that's an absolutely fucking ridiculous price to pay for Thomas Robinson. I don't hate Robinson, but the No. 19 pick? No thanks. Also, "making a run" at Gasol or Pekovic doesn't mean they would get these guys and then the Cavs would be stuck with no small forward and a tougher version of Tristan Thompson and Dion Waiters or Oladipo coming off the bench.

OR, why not pick Oladipo, sign Paul Millsap (available at a discount for whatever reason), nab Robin Lopez from New Orleans (when they were fire-saling him, no less), then keep your remaining cap space for a February deadline trade?

Nobody knew when the draft occurred that Millsap would be so cheap. This is complete hindsight. If the Cavs were counting on Millsap being cheap at the time of the draft then they were either (a) able to predict the future or (b) they would know something no other team in the NBA knew. That's the luxury of hindsight. At draft time, the Cavs would have expected to spend money they didn't want to spend on Millsap. So knowing that, they didn't make a run at signing him. They didn't know he would be cheap. Stop using hindsight to question a team's decision, while expecting that team to have knowledge they would not have without the benefit of his hindsight.

After Sam Amick reported that Dwight had picked Houston, an hour or so passed, then Chris Broussard reported that Dwight was still 50/50 … and everyone KILLED Dwight on Twitter for two solid hours until Dwight's agent set the record straight (that poor Dwight had never wavered and really had picked Houston).

What does it say about Dwight's behavior these past two years that an erroneous report led to Dwight getting unfairly raked over the coals, only nobody felt bad when the real story came out?

I hate for reality to affect Bill's fantasy land ideas of what "nobody" felt, but there was a lot of people on Twitter who basically were saying, "We owe Dwight Howard an apology because he never did waver on where he wanted to go, it was just bad reporting."

"You wouldn't have change for a thousand, would ya?"
"Whatta ya, a comedian? Get outta here, you bum."
"Looks like I'm walkin'."

To Jason Collins, our first openly gay NBA player and someone who wants to keep playing … only he hasn't been signed yet. Hmmmmmmmm.

It sounds to me like Jason Collins was only a marginally talented center prior to coming out of the closet and teams would rather spend their money on someone who isn't 30+ years old and only good for six fouls a night. I'm just guessing. Maybe it is because Collins is gay, but I'm also betting his basketball skills play a big role too.

First of all, have you watched Charlotte? Just a bunch of dudes jacking up bad jumpers. Now they have Big Al, an admittedly awful defender and a black hole, but one of the league's best low-post players and a guaranteed double-team in the last four minutes of every game. Had they given him $30 million for three years, you would have liked the deal. They had to pay $11 million extra because they're Charlotte and who the hell wants to play in Charlotte? We have 30 NBA teams … would YOU want to play in Charlotte?

Now that's just low. I wouldn't want to play FOR Charlotte, but what's wrong with playing in Charlotte? Yeah, it's not Los Angeles, but it's not that bad you wanna be Hollywood starfucker.

(Sorry, I get emotional sometimes. I enjoy Charlotte...not the team, but the city.)

Here's what we know: The Bobcats can build around three polished/competitive/used-to-winning college stars (Kemba Walker, Michael Kidd-Gilchrist and Cody Zeller, 

Wait, hold on a second...what is Cody Zeller used to winning? Player of the Year? No. An NCAA Championship? No. A Big 10 Tournament title? No. A Final Four game? No. I'm just confused about what Cody Zeller is using to winning.

"You just said you were hurt."
"I didn't say I was hurt, you said I was hurt."
"I just asked you if you were hurt and you said, 'Yeah, I'm hurt.'"
"That's because you made me say it. You're starting to put words in my mouth."
"Jack, you're a grown man, you're in control of your own words."
"You're goddamn right I am. So here come two words for you: Shut the f--- up."

 Sorry to harp, but read this. It's a wall of text/quotes. It's readable, but just barely. Who is Bill's editor? Put spaces between these quotes please.

"How much is here?"
"Neighborhood of 300 thousand."
"That's a, a very respectable neighborhood."

And here's a very unrespectable neighborhood: Ladies and gents, introducing our eight finalists for Riggin' for Wiggins! My preseason odds for each team.

I'm still not sure these "Midnight Run" quotes are memorable enough to justify a two-part "NBA winners and losers" column.

Boston (+500): If Rondo returns sooner than later, I'm worried they'll be better than everyone thinks. Especially if Brad Stevens does Brad Stevens things: Remember, he took Butler to within a fingernail-of-a-half-court-shot of winning the NCAA title. Name me anyone on that team other than Gordon Hayward. You can't. 

Shelvin Mack, Andrew Smith, Ronald Norad, Matt Howard, Kyle Marshall...it sure sounds like I can name the players on that team, no? Was that question only for people like Bill only watch the NCAA Tournament and don't really like college basketball? By the way, Shelvin Mack got drafted. Just saying, in retrospect that was a pretty dang good Butler team.

Sacramento (+300): Don't sleep on the Kings flopping in the tougher Western Conference. They have six power forwards (Carl Landry, Jason Thompson, Chuck Hayes, Patrick Patterson, James Johnson and Luc Richard Mbah a Moute), three shooting guards (Marcus Thornton, Ben McLemore and Ray McCallum), three point guards (Greivis Vasquez, Isaiah Thomas and Jimmer Fredette), two washed-up small forwards (Travis Outlaw, John Salmons), one center (Boogie Cousins) and one center that's Cole Aldrich (Cole Aldrich).

Or as I will forever better know Aldrich as, that guy that Bill Simmons said was better than Ed Davis.

Ed Davis over Aldrich? BAD CHAD! BAD! Go to your room! RT @chadfordinsider: My latest Top 100 Big Board: http://tinyurl.com/espnbigboard
— Bill Simmons (@BillSimmons) February 3, 2010

I'm just getting acclimated into college hoops. But still... no way Cole Aldrich should go lower than No. 5 in June's draft.
— Bill Simmons (@BillSimmons) January 26, 2010

But I do agree, Cole Aldrich is Cole Aldrich. Too bad Bill didn't always agree with that point of view.

Phoenix (+150): Alex Len coming off a serious stress fracture? Goran Dragic and Eric Bledsoe butting heads in the same backcourt? The Morris twins?

They looked pretty good in the Summer League.

The immortal Michael Beasley? Kendall Marshall's quest to become the worst top-13 pick since Joe Alexander and Jonny Flynn?

I'm not going to defend Marshall, but simply point out he is built for an up-tempo offense and he can't guard a fence post.

My single favorite moment in Midnight Run goes to Pierce, one of the six best Celtics ever and someone who deserved to retire in Boston if that's what he wanted to do. Which, by the way, he wanted to do.

Unfortunately it is a business and while Celtics fans don't like seeing Pierce in a Nets uniform, it is clear that Ainge learned from the Celtics trying to keep the Bird/Parish/McHale core together for too long. Sometimes it is time to move on.

But Boston wanted to buy a Riggin' for Wiggins ticket,

Everything doesn't revolve around Andrew Wiggins and he isn't the sole explanation for why NBA teams are looking to rebuild. The Celtics needed to move away from their core (Pierce/Rondo/Garnett) and start to build a team that is set up for another five year title contending run. It's not just about Andrew Wiggins but about sometimes you have to take a step backward to take two steps forward. It's very lazy to just explain Wiggins as the reason for every NBA team deciding to rebuild.

If anything happens to Brooklyn during the middle of this decade — a real possibility considering Brook Lopez's injury history, as well as a 32-year-old Deron Williams and a 34-year-old Joe Johnson making $46 million combined during the 2015-16 season — this deal could become the "Gail Goodrich to New Orleans for two future no. 1 picks" trade for this generation.

Bill called Joe Johnson a top-five shooting guard previously in this column. Not making judgments, simply mentioning this was written. Bill has a huge infatuation with players/coaches/GM's being "top-five," unless he wants to cherry-pick data to make Daryl Morey look good in which case he throws a little "top-seven" talk in there as well. 

And I don't know what the right answer is here. I really don't. The Celtics allowed Bird, McHale and Parish to age gracefully together once upon a time, followed by eight solid years of misery … and I have to say, I'd sign up for that again.

Mostly Bill would sign up for that again because he loves wallowing in his own misery the 90's were a fairly miserable time for the Celtics. Bill loves it when he can whine about how cursed or bad his favorite teams are, so it makes sense he would sign up for eight solid years of misery. Nevermind all the bitching in his columns that Bill did during the years following Bird/McHale/Parish retiring or leaving the Celtics. Bill would do it again because he thrives on this misery.

I loved those 1991, 1992 and 1993 teams because of the late Reggie Lewis,

Reggie Lewis was my favorite Celtic, even moreso than Bird in the 90's. I was a very, very sad little guy when he died. I played one-one-one against Reggie Lewis's nephew (he claimed to be Lewis's nephew and he knew a lot about Lewis that a child that age should not know) when I was in college. His nephew was around 10 years old at the time. Reggie's Lewis's other nephew was being recruited by the college I attended and this little kid came up to me in the gym and asked to play me one-on-one. He said we had to pick an NBA player to be. I let him choose first, being the nice guy I am, and he took my choice of Reggie Lewis. The conversation about why he picked Lewis went from there. I about shit my pants when he claimed to be Lewis's nephew.

but also because we kept the Big Three — because we didn't trade them, and only because they were f-ing Celtics and you don't trade your guys like that.

Except just because they are the Celtics doesn't mean they don't trade guys like that. Stop wishing the Celtics suck so you can whine about them in your columns and recall some of the magic you had in the 2000's when you could whine about the Red Sox in your columns.

Down the road, I'm sure I will appreciate it. But right now? It hurts like hell. Paul Pierce was our dude. We spent 15 seasons with him in all,

You get no sympathy from me. I saw Dale Murphy play in a Phillies uniform, saw Tom Glavine in a Mets uniform, and John Smoltz in a Red Sox/Cardinals uniform. It helps me to detach from Pierce that I know I wouldn't want to watch the Celtics struggle with aging players while they desperately try to keep the aging core together.

I think that's why Cuban kept Dirk — because they won together in 2011, and because he couldn't bear the thought of the Best Maverick Ever playing for another team. It might not be the smartest move, but it's certainly more relatable. Human, even.

By the way, this is Bill's attempt to end this uneven column on a solemn and thoughtful note.

Watching no. 34 play for the Nets will never feel right, and I will never feel good about it. Alas. See you in the next life, Paul.

Stop being a drama queen. He's not dead. You know what is dead? The "handing out awards with movie quotes" gimmick.