Thursday, April 25, 2013

7 comments 2013 NFL Mock Draft

I usually do an NFL mock draft every year just in order to embarrass myself. I decided this year should be no different. I'm notoriously terrible at evaluating quarterbacks, but that doesn't of course stop me from writing what I think of a quarterback as I slot him to a certain team. I do love giving my opinion on what will happen in the NFL Draft, so I take part in this exercise of trying to predict which player each NFL team will draft in the first round. I feel like this is going to be a very difficult draft to judge, so if I get 5 of these picks correct then I will probably feel pretty good about myself. I'm not even 100% confident about the #1 overall pick. As always, I won't predict trades.

So here is my 2013 NFL mock draft and feel free to tell me how stupid or brilliant I am in the comments. I already know I am brilliant/dumb, but it doesn't hurt to be reminded.

1. Kansas City- Eric Fisher, OT

It's the first pick of the draft and I'm not even sure the Chiefs will take an offensive tackle. They are dangling Branden Albert, so it makes sense. I had this as Luke Joeckel for two weeks now. Today, I am changing it to Eric Fisher because I want to be right. I need just one pick to be right. Is that too much to ask? I like the pick because the Chiefs need to protect Alex Smith and there isn't a franchise QB to be found in this draft.

2. Jacksonville- Dion Jordan, OLB/DE

This is one of 15 picks in the first round that are rumored to be on the trade block. Of course Jacksonville wants to trade this pick. Everyone wants to trade their pick. What gets me is that trading back always seems like a good idea, but even in a draft like this I'm not sure two picks are worth one pick. I guess it depends on the picks that are made. So there is something to be said for just staying where you are. The Jags need a difference-maker. I would go QB, but Gus Bradley is a defensive guy. I don't like Dion Jordan because I think there are better defensive players in this draft. My gut says this isn't the pick, but I'm going to sell out and mock Jordan to the Jags.

3. Oakland- Shariff Floyd, DT

This pick would be a lot easier if Al Davis were alive. I could just mock Geno Smith or Tavon Austin to the Raiders and call it a day. It's hard to make a sensible pick rather than a non-sensible pick, if that makes sense. I sort of wish I predicted trades because I don't think Oakland ends up making this pick. The Raiders desperately need some cornerbacks, but they also need some guys who can create pressure up front. I'm betting (probably wrongly) the Raiders go with a tackle here.

4. Philadelphia- Luke Joeckel, T

I desperately want to mock Lotulelei to the Eagles in this spot, but I think Chip Kelly wants to run his kind of offense and he can't run it if he can't protect his quarterback. The Eagles need help up front, but they also have to keep Vick/Foles/another guy healthy. Joeckel would improve the Eagles by improving the offensive line and having the ability to play the way Kelly wants to play, which is fast. I think Joeckel is athletic and could keep up with the offense Kelly wants to run.

5. Detroit- Dee Milliner, CB

I don't think the Lions make this pick either. The Lions really need help in the secondary and they also need some help at tackle. This is high for Milliner, so I'm guessing I get the pick right for the Lions, but not in the correct slot. I am all about offensive line help, but I'm not a huge Lane Johnson fan and Milliner is the best cornerback in the draft. The Lions have to get corner help.

6. Cleveland- Star Lotulelei, DT

The Browns are going to a 3-4 defense and Star is going to be great in a 3-4 defense from everything I have read. The Browns have worked hard to upgrade the pass-rush and if they can get the best DT in the draft (in my opinion) then they are going to make that move. If Lane Johnson is still available here, the Browns could get an offer for this spot they can't refuse. Not to mention, Rob Chudzinski is the head coach so don't rule out an offensive player in this spot. It would not shock me to see Tavon Austin or a "reach" offensive player go in this spot. I'm thinking logically, while Chud thinks Chud-like.

7. Arizona- Chance Warmack, G

This is really early for a guard and I know the odds of the Cardinals passing up a tackle are supposed to not be great, but why not grab the best offensive linemen in this draft when you need help on the offensive line? Maybe this is too much of a "I hope they take this guy" pick, but I think Warmack is going to be the best offensive linemen out of this draft and the Cardinals need to protect Carson Palmer.

8. Buffalo- Ryan Nassib, QB

Michael Necci at Buffalo Wins has the Bills taking a quarterback. He nailed the Gilmore pick last year, so I think I'm going to trust him. I am guessing the pick will be Nassib over Barkley, if only because of Doug Marrone's familiarity with Nassib. He knows the offense and the head coach already knows Nassib. There is a level of comfort I think that will make Nassib the attractive pick here. Is it too early to take a quarterback? I don't know. If a team needs a quarterback and doesn't think the one they like will make it to them, then I guess it isn't too early.

9. New York Jets- Ziggy Ansah, DE

I see Barkevious Mingo mocked in nearly every other mock draft, but I have to think if Rex Ryan can find a pass rusher with more potential than Mingo in this spot then he will take that chance. My outside pick in this spot is a wide receiver or maybe an offensive lineman, but I think if Ansah is available then Rex Ryan will look forward to molding Ansah into the type of player that he could be. Ryan took Quinton Coples last year and I can see Ryan wanting to further upgrade the pass rush. I hope the Jets don't do something stupid like reach for a corner here.

10. Tennessee- Jonathan Cooper, G/C

I'm concerned this pick won't happen because it seems to make sense to me. The Titans need to further improve their offensive line and Cooper is versatile. Part of me wonders if the Titans wouldn't take Tavon Austin in this spot just to give Jake Locker a playmaker. It makes sense to me to help open holes for Greene and Johnson. This pick makes too much sense to happen.

11. San Diego- Tavon Austin, WR

I am fully aware the Chargers need an offensive lineman and help on defense, but Mike McCoy is an offensive guy and would he really pass up the chance to get Philip Rivers some help on offense? I don't love Austin because he is so damn small, but there's no doubt he has talent. The Chargers have slowly stripped away Rivers' weapons and now they will take this chance to get one back...assuming they don't trade up for Eric Fisher of course.

12. Miami- Lane Johnson, T

The Dolphins need a tackle and they don't even have to trade up to get Lane Johnson. I'm not a huge Johnson guy (snickers), but I can't deny his potential and I don't think D.J. Fluker is a left tackle and worth taking in this spot. It's not a sexy pick, but if Johnson turns out to be as good as it is claimed he will be then it is an excellent pick in this spot.

13. New York Jets- Cordarrelle Patterson, WR

This pick will probably be traded at some point in the draft, but let's pretend the Jets are actually going to use the #13 pick. The Jets have to improve their offense and while seeing Gronk and Hernandez succeed in New England probably is driving Rex Ryan crazy, I think if this pick is kept they will choose to go wide receiver over tight end. Patterson is a risky pick, but his upside is huge and the Jets need to get Sanchez some offensive help so they can later blame the entire 2013 season on him.

14. Carolina- Kenny Vaccaro, S

This pick would come down to Sheldon Richardson and Kenny Vaccaro in my opinion. Having said that, Dave Gettleman has made it clear how deep he feels this draft is in terms of defensive tackles and despite safety was an absolute black hole for Carolina last year, Gettleman's history with the Giants could lead him to choosing the best player available. The Panthers really wanted Mark Barron last year and I think they take the chance to acquire Vaccaro while hoping they can trade back from this pick or get a DT in the second round.

15. New Orleans- Xavier Rhodes, CB

Rob Ryan, who always is a better defensive coordinator in theory than in practice, is going to want guys for his 3-4 defense. This works out well since the Saints defense was beyond horrendous last year. They need pass rushing help, but Ryan is probably going to want to improve the terrible secondary first. My outside pick in this spot is Barkevious Mingo, but I'm not sure where the Saints have him on their draft board.

16. St. Louis- D.J. Fluker, G/T

At this point, St. Louis is probably trying like hell to bail out of this spot because they can move back a little and get a few guys they want. Assuming they keep this pick, I think the Rams take D.J. Fluker here. Yes, they could probably use Sheldon Richardson or a wide receiver, but they take Fluker to help further solidify the offensive line. I'm against taking a guy named "Fluker" but that's probably just me. It seems too easy to look back in four years and saying his college career was a Fluke-r.

17. Pittsburgh Steelers- Jarvis Jones, OLB

No joke. I started this post by writing out the order of the picks two weeks ago. I wrote "Jarvis Jones" in here instead of "Pittsburgh Steelers." It's probably a cop-out to say this was a Freudian slip (in writing form) on my part, but the Steelers could use another pass-rusher and only the most idiotic of idiots could look at Jones at Georgia and not believe he can succeed in the NFL. All of those red flags seem silly to me. There are medical issues and the fact he didn't look good in shorts. He can rush the passer though. That's all that matters to the Steelers.

18. Dallas- Jonathan Cyprien, S

I'm thinking there will be a team that moves up and takes Barkevious Mingo here, so (as always) this pick may not stay with Dallas. So Monte Kiffin is the new defensive coordinator of Dallas. He runs a 4-3. He had John Lynch in Tampa Bay and I'm guessing the interest in Vaccaro is really a smokescreen so teams move up and the Cowboys can grab Jonathan Cyprien. The Cowboys have the confidence to pick Cyprien in the first round and not worry what people will say.

19. New York Giants- Sheldon Richardson, DT

Like candy from a baby. The Giants get an excellent defensive tackle in this spot. Richardson is very disruptive in the middle and though the Giants probably need outside pass-rushing depth a little bit more, they won't argue with getting a guy who can get a push in the middle of the defense either. The strength of the Giants stays a strength.

20. Chicago- Barkevious Mingo, OLB

It's a crazy pick, I know, especially since the Bears have an offensive-minded head coach and they seem set at outside linebacker (or as set as a team with James Anderson on one side can be), but I think the Bears will see Mingo as a Von Miller-type pass rusher and take him here. I'll be surprised if my mock is correct and he falls this far.

21. Cincinnati- Alec Ogletree, OLB

All I have seemingly heard is the Bengals want to draft a safety. Most mock drafts have a safety mocked here. Screw those mock drafts. I don't think the Bengals are going to take Matt Elam or Eric Reid here. They will probably (repeat after me) try to trade back. I don't see them taking Eddie Lacy in this spot, but I Alec Ogletree is very talented and the Bengals have a need at linebacker. Safety can wait until the second round when they use the Carson Palmer Memorial Second Round pick to take Reid/Elam.

22. St. Louis- Eddie Lacy, RB

Patterson is gone and DeAndre Hopkins has been connected to the Rams so much I almost feel like this is a sign it won't happen. Can St. Louis count on Daryl Richardson and Isiah Pead to carry the running game? I'm not sure. I think Eddie Lacy won't be Steven Jackson, but he can be a starter and no matter the Rams need at wide receiver they have to have a running game. Jeff Fisher has never been shy about taking running backs in the first round and that doesn't stop now.

23. Minnesota- Jesse Williams, DT

I think the Vikings will try to bring back the "Williams Wall," just not with Sylvester Williams, but Jesse Williams. All of this Te'o-to-Minnesota talk has to be a smokescreen. I know Rick Spielman loves Notre Dame products, but he has to love getting a space-eater in the middle of the defense too.

24. Indianapolis- Bjoern Werner, DE/OLB

I'm not sure there is an offensive lineman to be taken in this spot that I like. The problem is the Colts don't pick again until pick 86. So I think Werner is the pick here. He was talked about as possibly going in the first 10 picks a few months ago in some of the mock drafts I saw, so this is a good spot to get him. The Colts have needs at cornerback and offensive line, but I can't see them passing up a chance to get a quality pass-rusher.

25. Minnesota- Keenan Allen, WR

The Vikings are going to draft a wide receiver, it just depends on when. They can't wait until the second round to get the kind of receiver they want, so they take Allen with their second first round pick. I like Allen and think even though his numbers haven't been extraordinarily exciting when it comes to his workouts, Allen was destroyed at Cal by having a shitty quarterback throwing him the football. So he will be well-prepared to try and catch passes from Christian Ponder.

26. Green Bay- Tank Carrdine, DE

The Packers need offensive line help, but I think they first try to improve their defense. Tank Carradine seems to be rising up draft boards recently and I think the Packers are smart enough to realize rather than reach for an offensive lineman or take another wide receiver to replace Jennings they should work on improving their defensive line.

27. Houston- Tyler Eifert, TE

I can see this pick getting traded. If the Texans keep the pick then they are going to need to find help for Schaub and I think that's a smart move. The consensus seems to be the Texans will find help at wide receiver, but I can see them noticing Tyler Eifert is still on the board and taking a chance on grabbing him. Otherwise they may trade back and take Hunter or Hopkins, but Eifert is athletic enough to be split out wide while also dominating the middle of the field.

28. Denver- Sylvester Williams, DT

I wouldn't rule out Jonathan Hankins in this spot instead, but the Broncos could use some more help on the defensive line and I don't know if I see the Broncos going with a cornerback in this spot either. It seems to be Sylvester Williams may be the best player available as well as fit a need the Broncos have. I will put Hayden or Trufant as an outside candidate for this spot as well.

29. New England- Desmond Trufant, CB

I have a feeling the Patriots are going to trade this pick to a QB-needy team so they can take Geno Smith. But since I refuse to predict trades, if the Patriots keep this pick I see them going with Desmond Trufant in this spot, though D.J. Hayden could be the pick if they like him better. I generally dislike going the whole "the Patriots need cornerbacks" route, but it seems true here.

30. Atlanta- Damontre Moore, DE

Again, this is a team with an obvious need at cornerback. I feel like I am cheating by mocking a cornerback to them in this spot. The Falcons have the ammunition to move up a little bit in the second round to grab a cornerback, so I'm guessing they may go that route. I feel like the chance to grab a pass-rusher is an opportunity they won't want to pass up. Cornerback is a need, but they can possibly use the 10 other picks they have to move up and try to find a cornerback they like.

31. San Francisco- D.J. Hayden, CB

It's hard to say what the 49ers are going to do because they have so many picks. They need a safety and defensive line help, but I'm not sure they will spend a first round pick on either of these positions. They have picks #31 and #34, so I can see a situation where they package those picks to move up and take a player they consider to be an impact player. As long as they are sitting at #31 I'm not sure they will necessarily tackle or defensive linemen in this spot. I see them taking a corner in this spot and Hayden is that guy. Perhaps they like another corner better, but I feel like the 49ers will look to improve their secondary with this pick.

32. Baltimore- Justin Hunter, WR

Daniel Jeremiah (he's an ex-Appalachian State quarterback, which means he is awesome) thinks that Baltimore will take Manti Te'o in this spot. Who am I to disagree with him? I am another Appalachian State grad and I think the Ravens are going to choose to upgrade the receiving corps and give their brand new franchise quarterback some weapons to work with in the passing game. Hunter is a big receiver who has the ability to be a #1 receiver. He should work out well with Torrey Smith being the deep threat on the other side of the field.

So feel free to tell me how stupid/smart I am.


JD said...

So the Chargers get an OL, albeit the 6th best on the board, but I'm happy. Fluker should be a nice start in the rebuilding phase.

Would have preferred a trade up with the Raiders (who needed more picks) for either Fisher or Joeckel, but with them going one and two it left the Chargers in the lurch.

One quick observation, Mel Kiper has a strange obsession with "short arms."

JBsptfn said...

Good job with KC, Indy, and Denver. I didn't have Indy taking Werner, and while Sly Williams started to come back into the equation for Denver the last few days, I wasn't sure if they would take him or not.

As for Fluker, you shouldn't be that happy, JD. He is not a LT, and that was their biggest need. SD needs to look at LT Terron Armstead of Arkansas-Pine Bluff in the second round if he is available.

Bengoodfella said...

JD, it was a strong year for OL. A good year if you needed one. Kiper said Shariff Floyd had short arms too, but I also read that in the scouting report on Floyd. I'm not sure what the fascination with short arms is. I'm not a huge Fluker fan, but I think at worst he will end up being a quality guard. The Chargers needed OL help.

JB, I got three picks right. Not very good. People in Carolina were obsessed with Sly Williams. Probably because he went to UNC.

I think the Chargers will get another OL at some point in the draft as well. From the reports I've read he isn't a LT, but I do think he could play guard if he can't play tackle.

koleslaw said...

So I just read your draft side-by-side with the real draft. Is it just me or were there way more trades this year than usual? Trades are cool because they pretty much render all mock drafts moot. You hit on Fisher and you nailed my team dead on (Steelers, Jarvis Jones) I feel like making a good mock draft is an impossible task.

Over/under on how many teams get a C(+/-) from Mel Kiper: 25.5

Also, Barkevious Mingo is a pretty awesome name. Almost as good as Jackmerius Tacktheritrix.

JBsptfn said...

Barkevious is a good name for Cleveland because of the Dawg Pound.

Bark, Bark, Bark, Bark.

Bengoodfella said...

Koleslaw, I didn't predict trades and I may do it next year. We'll see. I still wouldn't have gotten Jordan to Miami right. There were quite a few trades. I think all of the teams wanted to trade out of the Top 10 this year. I got three picks right. Not very good.

Barkevious Mingo is a great name. He is 241 pounds though. He's gotta bulk up (at least in my opinion) to justify his high draft status. He was a good player at LSU, but he also had a lot of talent around him. Sort of how I feel about Eric Reid. Reid looked better when he had Mathieu and Claiborne with him in the secondary.

JD said...

@ JBsptfn - Completely agree with the Charger's LT need, but the two best that were worth trading up for would've cost a crap-ton.

Bobby Beathard probably would've done it. McCoy and Telesco know there are multiple needs that would be better serviced maintaining the picks.

I'm not saying Fluker is taking us to the hill, just that he's an upgrade to what currently exists; which is a start.