Let's continue with my predictions for this NFL year. I really don't feel like such a dumbass because, like J.S. I did not miss everything, but on the top teams in the league, I was way off. I did not see Tennessee being a great team.
AFC Preview
Buffalo
Predicted record: 7-9.
I have no idea why this defense was so bad last year, I look at the roster and think they should at least be middle of the pack. I look at each team this way: What have they done that would make things different for them this year than last year or what has changed? Unless you count hit and run accidents and holding out of training camp, which you get 0 fantasy points for, and a shockingly low zero touchdowns, nothing has really changed in my mind.
The defense was bad again this year as well and I have no idea if Trent Edwards is a good QB or not. I did not think they did enough to upgrade their roster in the offseason and apparently, for once, I was right.
Actual record: 7-9
Now whether the Bills actually improved this past year and the rest of the division just got better or whether they were the same old Bills, I have no idea. They were again middle of the pack in defense and Dick Jauron should probably get fired because this team is not really going anywhere.
Miami
Predicted record: 4-12
As far as QB's go, I like Chad Pennington as a person. My grandmother knows his grandmother and swears he is a doll of a person. He also has an arm like a 5 year old. David Eckstein throws the ball harder than Pennington. All I hear is, “Who cares? He is accurate and is a team leader, people love him, blah blah blah.” All very true but he is accurate when throwing to Santana Moss, Jerricho Cotchery, and Lavernues Coles. Find them on this roster and get back to me.
I think by the 3rd year, or by the time Parcell quits and denies he wants another job and immediately takes another job, they should be good for 2nd place in the division. Not this year.
Little did I know that Parcells would be able to take another job after his first year with the Dolphins, so it would not take three years, and they would be good enough to make the playoffs in his first year. I think the one of the worst predictions I made was the ragging on Chad Pennington here. Was I wrong or what? I feel like the school yard bully who gets his ass kicked by the kid who sings alto in the school chorus.
Though, I am very proud of this...
they have an offense where Coach Parcells could run the single wing offense with Ted Ginn as the QB and Ricky Williams and Ronnie Brown in the backfield and it would be the best chance for this team to score.
I did not say specifically they would use the single wing offense this year but I said it would be their best choice. I am giving myself credit for this, but taking away points for trying to get Ted Ginn involved.
Actual record: 11-5.
I am still not a big Bill Parcells fan and I would not want him coaching my team because he never sticks to something for longer than three seasons. That being said, no one saw this coming at all, and I think the way I put them down was pretty short sighted. I did say one of the QB's would be semi-competent but I did not mention any Pro Bowls would be made. I missed on this one.
New England
Predicted record: 15-1
I did not see a single mock draft having Jerod Mayo going #10 in the draft, so for Patriot fans to be all giddy about him may be a little premature. Suck on that Simmons. Your Mayo is going to spoil.
Amazing how bitter I can be about a guy I actually enjoyed watching play in college. Of course he ended up being Defensive Rookie of the Year. I am an ass.
All of this being said, the Patriots have had some good luck and one strong hit to Tom Brady or Randy Moss can make this team lose 5-6 games.
I am beyond impressed with myself with this comment right here, again I did not say it would happen, but I did say if it did happen then the Patriots would lose 5-6 games, which they did.
Actual record: 11-5
Losing Brady was just too big of a blow for the team to recover from initially. I have no respect for Bill Belichick and his ability to get the most out of his players. That being said, I would not give a whole lot of money to Cassel if he becomes a free agent because I think his success is more because of being put in the situation to succeed rather than pure talent. I may be wrong.
New York Jets
Predicted record: 7-9
At that point, instead of Larry B. Plunkett from the Green Bay Herald and Times asking Brett Favre questions, he will have the NY Post, NY Times, and every other major New York publication questioning his decision making. It will either cement Brett’s reputation as one of the greatest QB’s in NFL history or cause him to sweat like a heroin addict in rehab.
I did not factor in that it might also cost Eric Mangini his job. So far after the shit job Favre put up at the end of last year his teammates are questioning him, his coach questioned him and I assume the media in New York is questioning him. The defense is also to blame for the fall of the Jets at the end of the year and unfortunately I was kind of right about Gholston not being very consistent.
Actual record: 9-7.
I think the Jets are a better team than their record and I really believe Bill Cowher was a natural fit for this team but right now they have the Favre Plague where no coach wants to take on Favre unless they know whether or not he is coming back. We may not know that answer for another six months minimum.
Pittsburgh
Predicted record: 12-4
You can always count on the Steelers drafting and developing great LB’s, watching them become great stars and then being too cheap to resign these players. I love things you can count on. Of course you can also count on at least one or two replays in the playoffs that show the Pittsburgh defenders about 10 yards behind a receiver with the ball in the air.
With LaMar Woodley and James Harrison the Steelers did this again this year. Of course the Steelers secondary collapse has yet to happen but I still feel confident I will see Peyton Manning throwing the touchdown over Ryan Clark's head. I feel good that I predicted the exact record of the Steelers, though with their consistency it is a lot like cheating.
Actual record: 12-4.
Boring and terribly efficient. Honestly, there is no way Ben Roethlisberger wins a Super Bowl with this offensive line and the fact he holds the ball about 2 seconds longer than he really should.
Baltimore
Predicted record: 5-11.
Every year you hear Ray Lewis has lost a step and every year he proves someone wrong. I am not going to be one of those people to count out the Ravens this year on the defensive side of the ball because I am superstitious in that way. I can feel a bad combination of a lousy offense and an aging defense that I think does not bode well for this team.
This is the first of my big misses. Apparently Joe Flacco is a great quarterback or at least a good game manager. Either way, he won ball games as the quarterback, which is all that really matters. I like how I said twice I was not going to count the Ravens defense out and yet I still predicted they would have a 5-11 record. I said the Ravens had been caught up with by the rest of the division, like the Browns and the Bengals, then predicted average records for both teams, which does not indicate they got any better.
Actual record: 11-5.
The combination of an older defense, a rookie QB, rookie head coach, and very few pass catchers somehow managed to win 11 games. I am amazed and will not count the Ravens out next year, though I probably will.
Cincinnati
Predicted record: 8-8
If Carson Palmer stays healthy and he is the only Palmer, not Jordan, throwing to Chad Johnson and T.J. Houshmandzadeh, then there should be nothing wrong with this team offensively.
I will just go ahead and use the excuse that Palmer was injured as for my big miss on this season record. Ryan Fitzpatrick can only do so much...due to his skill level.
The best thing this team can do is start over. I think Marvin Lewis is a good coach but this is going to be a tug of war between the defense and the offense for the next couple years unless something changes.
I still stand by this comment. I keep waiting for this defense to step it up, they have enough first round draft picks to justify a somewhat positive outlook. I think Marvin Lewis should move on somewhere else.
Actual record: 4-11-1.
Apparently, when you take away a great QB from a team with no steady running game, a porous defense and a locker room that had Chad Johnson prominently involved as a team leader, nothing good will come of this. I am already putting them for an 8-8 season next year.
Cleveland
Predicted record: 9-7.
I liked Derek Anderson coming out of college at Oregon State, so it did not shock me that he was a productive QB last year. It did shock me that he was as good as he was though. I am going to assume it was not a one year thing and say he will have a comparable year. I think they are good enough to win 10 games again this year, I just don’t believe they will. I think they will stop the run sufficiently this year but I still wonder why Romeo Crennel is a defensive coach and they don’t have a great defense as of yet. I actually think the offense is going to lag a little bit behind the pace from last year but the defense will step it up to make more plays.
Oh yes, I was on the Derek Anderson train and took it on a straight ride to Shitsville. It was not a pleasant adventure, trust me. I like my summary of how I don't think they have a great defense and the offense is going to lag behind the already mediocre defense...yet somehow I have them winning 9 games! I guess the bosses in Cleveland were wondering why the hell the team had a bad year, because they did a bonafide housecleaning in firing Phil Savage and Romeo Crennel.
Actual record: 4-12.
I am not as down on this team for next year as some people may be. Cleveland needs a strong locker room coach who won't allow the bullshit Braylon Edwards and Kellen Winslow Jr. spew from their mouth go on. It would also help if the defensive lineman would quit trying to beat up Brady Quinn.
Houston
Predicted record: 6-10
Unless Matt Schaub knows how to run the spread option, Steve Slaton will be useless after Ahman Green and Chris Brown get injured. If am Mario Williams, I demand a trade to the Saints to rub it in Reggie Bush’s face everyday in practice how good I am.
I missed hard on Steve Slaton and I am proud to say I don't think he will put up any good numbers next year either. If anything, I am stubborn and refuse to admit when I am wrong. I am not going to change now, it helped me make completely incorrect evaluations of the teams in the preseason after all. I think if the Texans offered this Williams-Bush trade to the Saints, the Saints would accept this in a heartbeat, if not sooner.
Actual record: 8-8.
This is the team everyone is going to say is the sleeper for next year, just based on the way they ended this year. I am not sure I agree but I do think it took four years for Peter King to finally notice Andre Johnson and now we may not be able to get him to shut up.
Indianapolis
Predicted record: 10-6
One year the Colts are going to relinquish the hold they have on the AFC South, (even though they are in the North of the United States) and I think this is going to be the year.
I feel very confident that I am proud of this pick, though I did pick the wrong team that would beat them, I just had a feeling they would not win the division. Unfortunately, they also went 12-4 and if it were not for the fact Peyton Manning played on one leg at the beginning of the year, they probably would have won the division, so I was not completely correct.
The defense will be above average but I don’t trust Bob Sanders to stay healthy and I don’t trust the team to stop the run without him. So yes, I am predicting injuries. Kiss my ass.
Predicting the injuries was as much fun as I anticipated it being. Probably because Bob Sanders did only play in 6 games this year, so I feel correct.
Actual record: 12-4
The Colts were not as bad their record indicated and even though they did not win the division I did under rate them a little bit. I have to count myself as wrong on this one.
Jacksonville
Predicted record: 12-4.
I L-O-V-E the Jaguars defense. They were middle of the pack last year but I think they are going to have a great year and they have the pass rush and the secondary to make other team's life difficult.
Unfortunately the rest of the AFC L-O-V-E-D the Jacksonville defense as well. Probably mostly because they could score on it at will. I remember there have been tons of articles in the past about Fred Taylor and how underrated he is and how he people wondered when he would ever get old. That was this year. I really, really thought the Jacksonville Jags defense would be good this year, I truly did.
Actual record: 5-11.
I could not have missed on this prediction anymore than I did. It would have been impossible. I was way off because for some reason I thought having three average receivers would turn into something good, which it did not.
Tennessee
Predicted record: 7-9
Tennessee is unlucky they have to play in the same division as the Colts and Jags. The Titans are good enough to beat a lot of teams but not good enough to beat a good team. Contain Vince Young and force him to fling the ball awkwardly around the field and they are beat. The running game is going to be the key for the Titans because the only way they will be able to move the ball through the air is when Vince Young gets flushed out of the pocket or throws a 5 yard out.
See, I didn't know Kerry Collins was going to be the starting QB for this team. You have to admit if Vince Young had stayed the QB they would have gone 7-9, it was going to happen because he is horrible. That's my excuse and I am sticking to it. It turns out the Titans are good enough to beat a good team and a bad team.
Actual record: 13-3.
I don't care what any one says, this team does not scare me and will not ever scare me. They win ball games and I guess that is good enough. Kerry Collins has played above his head this year, despite the fact he has still not played well, so I don't see them getting incredibly far in the playoffs. Of course I also did not see them winning 13 games either.
Denver
Predicted record: 9-7.
The Broncos are not an untalented squad, they still have Champ Bailey and they will find another 1,000 yard rusher somewhere on this roster or another roster. The questions are the defense and how well the offensive line can protect Cutler to get the ball to the no name receivers? Mike Shanahan is slightly overrated as a coach. He did a great job in winning back to back Super Bowls but he has very little clue on how to build a defense and his personnel decisions are beyond questionable.
So I was wrong about the 1,000 yard rusher part and it turns out they actually have good receivers so I whiffed totally on those two points. The question still remains whether the offensive line could protect and the defense could do its job and the defense really let the team down, which should not shock anyone. As everyone says, Mike Shanahan the personnel guy got Mike Shanahan the head coach fired.
Actual record: 8-8.
They went 8-8 in the worst division in football. Not anything to brag about. This team has the offensive pieces but the patchwork defense needs some real time to get back on the right track and at that point, the best defensive player, Champ Bailey, will be too old to make a difference.
Kansas City
Predicted record: 4-12.
How odd is it that Larry Johnson gets a huge contract and then immediately has his worst year as a starter? That never happens, you except with Shaun Alexander and every other running back in the history of the NFL. How bad is Brodie Croyle? He has made Damon Huard seem to be a viable starting quarterback and Tyler Thigpen could also possibly be in the running as the starter. That's not good.
How odd is it that I thought I was being hard on the Chiefs when I said they would win 4 games and I still underestimated how bad they were. Larry Johnson disappeared and for some reason Tyler Thigpen actually seemed like a viable quarterback at times. Very, very weird. Does anyone think Herman Edwards really knows what he is doing?
Actual record: 2-14.
I saw them play and they are beyond bad. To make matters worse they drafted Glenn Dorsey and he looks like a total bust as of now...oh, and Tyler Thigpen is their quarterback.
Oakland
Predicted record: 5-11.
I truly believe Michael Bush is either the best or second best RB on this roster and he needs to get more touches.
Look for Gibril Wilson to have a horrible year as well.
No one listens to the coach, the owner is insane and there is a lack of talent on the roster. Should make for a shitty year.
And it was a shitty year. I still think Michael Bush is the best or second best RB on the roster. Of course Gibril Wilson had a career year, so I was very wrong about that and Al Davis is still bat shit nuts. This is going to be a shitty decade for this team. I nailed their record perfectly and I could not be more happy.
Actual record: 5-11.
JaMarcus Russell just bought himself another offseason of no quarterback competition with his last two games and I give Tom Cable one year before he gets fired. I will tell you right now, he is not the answer for this team. What is the answer? There is none.
San Diego
Predicted record: 13-3.
I really like this team though and I think the window may be closing on them with LT getting near running back middle age (i.e. 30). If they are going to make a Super Bowl, I think this could be the year. That being said, I am not sure they can stop the run well enough to do it. Good Ol' Norv better start updating his offensive coordinator resume if they don't because the mentally incompetent front office will probably fire him and try to rehire Marty Schottenheimer.
I like how I say I love this team and then start listing about 30 things I find wrong with the team. Only little things like the running back is old, the quarterback can't throw the ball, the head coach sucks and they can't stop the run. No big deal, just go ahead and make them 13-3! What the hell was I thinking?
Actual record: 8-8.
If it were not for the incompetence of the rest of the division it could have been worse. LT got old very quickly and it took a big run at the end of the year, just to get the team back to .500 and this was all with Rivers having a fantastic year. If there are any doubts Norv Turner can coach quarterbacks but can't actually coach a team, this was the year it was finally proven. I don't know if they can win a playoff game this year.
I am going to try and post Bill Simmons a little later, but I hope everyone has had a Happy New Year.
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