Friday, August 7, 2009

12 comments Prediction Friday

I like to make predictions, and fortunately so do many sportswriters, which gives me an opportunity to not only mock them but give my opinion and solicit other opinions at the same time. Sportswriters like John Lopez also like to make predictions based on what people think are the "trendy" picks in the NFL.

Though I would argue with some of these picks being "trendy" because generally the sportswriters tend to cover the teams extensively and then because they as sportswriters think the teams will be good, just go ahead and label that team "trendy" even if it is one person's opinion and not an actual trend. I will try to ignore this and carry on.

This is my first chance before this upcoming season to do a little NFL discussing. Let's see what John Lopez thinks is "trendy."

The trendy pick: A Cowboys Super Bowl run?

I think predicting the Cowboys to make the Super Bowl is pushing it just a little bit. I think the Cowboys could win a playoff game this year, which for them would be an accomplishment since it hasn't happened since 1996 (yes, I keep bringing this up because my area is full of the annoying kind of Cowboys fans).

I do believe in addition by subtraction and I think many of the distractions being gone and the fact the Cowboys still have a talented and fairly deep team could land them second place in the NFC East. Super Bowl run? I don't believe that is happening. Of course I am the same person who called the Pittsburgh offense "boring and predictable," or something to that effect but meant it in a good way in my AFC preview, so believe me if you dare.

So will it happen?

Not likely. The Cowboys should be better and have first-rate talent, but even if everything goes swimmingly, it would be hard to pass the Giants and Eagles.

I am not as on the Eagles bandwagon as everyone else (Peter King) seems to be. I like LeSean McCoy and thought he should have gone higher in the draft over guys like Donald Brown and Beanie Wells, but they are relying on some really young receivers to carry the load in a tough division. I am not even counting the impact of the loss of Jim Johnson, Brian Dawkins, and Stewart Bradley on defense. Throw in the fact Donovan McNabb has an injury history and with him missing a couple games I can see the Cowboys sliding into the #2 spot in the competitive NFC East.

The trendy pick: The Chargers (for the 9,786th time), could win it all.

Not to go Bill Simmons on everyone, but this is not happening while Norv Turner is the head coach. He is a great offensive coordinator but he is not a great head coach. I think the Chargers have enough firepower and play in a crappy enough division to where they could get a bye week for the playoffs but I don't enough faith they could go much further than that. I want to like the combination of mighty mite Darren Sproles and Tomlinson but I don't believe Sproles can handle carrying the ball 15 times a game and I am not sure how much Tomlinson has left in him. I see the running game as a bit of a mystery this year (Of course since it is another contract year for Sproles he will prove me wrong by gaining 3,000 total yards).

So, will it happen?

Yes. This time, yes. The Chargers could finally get over the hump. Ultimately, players make the biggest difference, and while the Steelers, Patriots and Colts are deservedly favored, San Diego's talent takes a backseat to no one.

Players do make the biggest difference as seen last year when the Steelers and Cardinals clearly had the most talented teams in the NFL (Waiting for everyone to get my sarcasm). San Diego's talent may not take a backseat to anyone and Chris Chambers may rebound from a subpar year last year but I just don't see the Chargers getting over the hump. They seem like a team that will just never be able to put it all together in one season and win a Super Bowl. They have the talent but lack the coaching and some weird intangible I can't put my finger on.

The trendy pick: The 49ers will make a glorious return under Mike Singletary

Return to what? That would be my question. Respectability? Not if they are planning on starting Alex Smith at the QB position. Everyone loves Patrick Willis and I think Shaun Hill can get the job done at QB if given the chance, unfortunately in the NFL having strength at the offensive and defensive lines is especially important and the 49ers have neither. The offensive line is mediocre and they really don't have any one who can rush the passer. Throw in the fact Michael Crabtree is threatening to not sign a contract and enter the 2010 draft and it doesn't seem like their year to make a "glorious return" to anything.

So, will it happen?

No way. Singletary deserved this chance he's gotten, but too many things are stacked against him. He'll get this club playing good football and toughen it up, but by midseason, expect a big crash.

The fact he is inheriting a bad team that has wasted high draft picks on average players like Manny Lawson, Alex Smith, Vernon Davis, Kentwan Balmer, and Rashaun Woods hasn't helped the team at all. I can see the 49ers being better than last year but I don't know if 2nd/3rd place in the NFC West qualifies as a glorious return.

The trendy pick: The Texans are headed to the playoffs

I do see this happening this year actually. Just for right now, and this could change due to injuries or some other unforseen circumstance, I see the playoffs as the Texans, Colts, Steelers, Patriots, San Diego, and Bills. My biggest question about the Texans is their ability to run the ball but I think Steve Slaton is going to have a good year and the Texan defense is bound to be pretty good with some of the good young players they have, even if they weren't very good last year.

So, will it happen?

Yes, print those playoff tickets, Texans fans. Matt Schaub is due a full, healthy season. And when he's on the field, nobody stops this offense.

I don't know if a quarterback is actually ever "due" a healthy season but Schaub is bound to stay healthier this year than last year, though if he does get hurt, I am calling all bets off. We all know from Peter's King brilliant analysis that Dan Orlovsky won't be able to handle the load. The defense needs to step up a little more to get this done, which I believe will happen. Every year someone says the Texans will make it to the playoffs and this year it just happens to be true.

The trendy pick: The Chiefs are on their way back.

Again, this is sort of a vague statement. The Chiefs will be back at some point and as bad as they were last year, they can't go anywhere else but up at this point. Plus they have Matty Icccccccce 1 (or 2, I can't remember which one Matt Ryan is). Everyone knows that good teams give quarterbacks who have had one good year in the NFL, with a team that has successfully plugged players in the system and then watched them leave and do nothing, huge new contracts. That's what good teams do right? They commit themselves long term to guys who have had one good year and no prior track record other than that.

Throw in the fact Todd Haley has a history of getting into sideline arguments with his players and it took him three quarters to open up the offense in the Super Bowl and I even have major questions about the coaching staff.

Of course the Chiefs are on their way back, they can't get much lower, but I don't think it is going to be this year or next year and I don't even know if Matt Cassel is the guy to do it.

So, will it happen?

Nope. It's just asking too much. The Chiefs have cleared some cap space, but they are at least four or five years away.

That's just an ignorant statement. If Todd Haley and Scott Pioli are the guys to turn this around they will have it turned around in less time than that. If they are not the guys to do it, then it may take longer, but there is no way these guys stick around if it takes 4 years to turn the team around and make them respectable again. They will be fired before that point. The Dolphins turned their team around in one year last year and the Panthers went from 1-15 to the Super Bowl in two years. Four or five years is an incredible amount of time in the NFL and this regime won't get that long to turn it around.

The trendy pick: The Bears are going to shock the NFL world.

And have a receiver that catches more than 40 passes or one that exceeds 600 yards receiving? All kidding aside, the Jay Cutler trade has really given Bears fans hope. I am here to knock some of that hope down. The offensive line is just a huge question mark, the defense has gotten old over the past two seasons, and I just don't know who is supposed to catch the ball for them.

I think the defense can turn it around and will do so, the offensive line helped Forte last year have a great rookie season, but I still don't know how this is going to work with the complete lack of receivers for Cutler. Cutler is a great QB but he also has had some good receivers to throw the ball to and an absolutely great offensive line in Denver. Orlando Pace doesn't have too much left in him and I wonder how Cutler will play without great time to throw the ball and great receivers to throw the ball to.

So, will it happen?

Yup. Fear the Bears in 2009. I'm not saying Super Bowl, but if Cutler has any receiver step up, good things will happen.

I did like Earl Bennett coming out of Vanderbilt but the fact he couldn't find the field last year for the Bears make me nervous for his prospects this year. I don't know if the Bears are good enough to win the division and I don't think one of the Wild Cards is coming from this division either. The Bears can win the division and they will as long as a receiver other than Hester steps up, the defense doesn't keep going backwards and the offensive line gives Cutler the time he is used to in throwing. That seems like a lot to have happen but the division is for the taking.

The Vikings flirted with Brett Favre for a reason. And the Packers playing footsy with Michael Vick? Not exactly a confidence-booster.

I don't think the off season moves by the other teams in the division mean necessarily these teams fear the Bears. I know John Lopez is not saying they will make the Super Bowl but the Bears couldn't make the playoffs last year when the Packers stunk and the Lions did not win a game. I know the addition of Cutler is supposed to be the thing that gets the Bears over the hump, but I can't ignore the defense's slow decline and the fact the O-line is a bit of a mystery for them.

-Back to Michael Crabtree. I am going to try and be as impolite as possible about this. What the hell is he thinking?

Per a league source, agent Eugene Parker is telling the 49ers that Crabtree will sit out the season and re-enter the draft in 2010, unless the team gives Crabtree what he wants.

Michael Crabtree is a damn idiot. This is the NFL, not high school or college where there are only a couple guys who know exactly what the hell they are doing. Not to mention he is a rookie receiver, which is a position that has seemed to have quite a learning curve in the past. He needs to get his ass on the field and start to play football. He's an idiot. He can be replaced in a heartbeat...even on a team that is not great like the 49ers.

I defended Crabtree when he came out of the draft because I thought he was the best receiver available and didn't get it when people talked about character issues he has. Now I get it. The worst part is that his agents haven't even made a fucking offer to the 49ers yet! I can't use exclamation points enough for this. Rookies need to sign and get on the field to play with their team.

Rookies in the NFL aren't special anymore and there are 10 other guys who can do exactly what you can as a rookie (in most cases). There's no difference in $42 million guaranteed and $48 million guaranteed but there is a huge difference in starting the season on the second unit on the depth chart and starting the season in the starting lineup. Throw in the fact he had a major-ish surgery before the draft, which may or may not have caused his stock to drop, and it is clear to me he needs to get on the field and play football.

Let him sit out the entire year and entire the draft. It's clear he and his agent haven't thought this through. The 49ers hold his rights until Draft Day. That means he can't go to the Combine again or do anything football related with other teams. He can do it on his own and let the media attend or he can send out in a press release what happened but he can't work for other teams and if a team is going to draft him, especially after he showed what an asshole he can be and his injury this past year, they are going to want to watch him play.

Michael Crabtree could very well be a great receiver but I am a firm believer a rookie has more to lose than to gain by holding out of training camp, especially a rookie wide receiver. The NFL isn't easy and it is important to be in training camp adjusting to the speed of the game. The 49ers may be desperate and give him a chance once (or if) he signs a contract to play with the first team but he has to learn the playbook and be out there with his teammates. He has the prima donna part of being an NFL receiver down, but now he just needs to prove he can actually play. He's an idiot right now though.

-I know from previous experience here that I seem to be one of the few people who cares about NCAA college basketball but that is not going to stop me from commenting on it. Dick Vitale has his preseason Top 40. Why Top 40 instead of Top 25 or Top 50? Because it is Dick Vitale and he does things his way I guess. I have gotten to the point I can't hear him call a game anymore because he spends so much time talking about other topics not related to college basketball, it is just annoying.

I have some problems with his preseason predictions...I admittedly am a little bit of a snob about college basketball. I don't know it all, because no one does, but I feel like I have a firm enough grasp of it to make predictions and be semi-accurate. Last year I predicted UNC would win the National Championship back in July 2008 (I said no one should beat them for the upcoming year, it's really the same thing I guess) and I basically beat the drum for them all year. That's a lot of pressure for me this year to predict correctly again.

1. Kansas:

I know everyone is awaiting my choice for National Champion but it is not as clear cut for me this year. If I had to choose right now, I would say Kansas is my choice, simply because they have experience at PG, a big man to rebound and control the paint and two athletic wing players in Henry and Taylor. It's a formula for success in college basketball. A lot of people talk about depth being important, but it is not as important if you have starters you can trust to not get tired or foul out. Kansas has a couple of guys off the bench they can count on and that's all you need to win a National Championship.

2. Kentucky

Putting aside the fact I hate Kentucky and John Calipari, I will try to be neutral. They have A LOT of talent on that roster and a lot of young talent, which sometimes can be a bad thing. I think #2 is a bit high for them because on some nights they are going to be on and other nights I can see them being a mess. I just don't know how they are going to keep all those players happy and give them shots. Calipari will find a way I am sure. I think the best part of the year will be to see the mass exodus of players from Kentucky to the NBA. Just off the top of my head Cousins, Wall, Patterson, and very possibly Daniel Orton will go pro.

3. Michigan State

They are not an elite team this year. I believe they overachieved last year and I see them as being more of a #8-#15 team. Of course I also didn't see them making the National Championship game last year.

5. Duke:

Same thing for these guys. They are consistently over ranked because people look at the name. They still have no big men, don't have a tough rebounding type player on the roster and have three total guards on the roster worth even putting on the floor, and one of them is a freshman and none are point guards. I would put them in the top 5 if they either had a big man worth a crap or a point guard at all on the roster. The fact is they don't, so Dick Vitale needs to quit jumping on the bandwagon, stop over ranking Duke, and face reality.

(One reason I hate the Interwebs, I wrote this last night and today the Big Lead put this up. They are much more widely read so it looks like I am copying them by saying this. How dare two people have the same point of view. This is America dammit!)

7. Villanova:

I love this team this year and would move them up into the top 5 in the preseason rankings. This is my #3 team in the country. They kept Stokes, Fisher, and Reynolds around and have a top 5 recruiting class coming in. Size may be a bit of a problem because the little skill size they have are freshmen but I really, really like this team. If you put a gun to my head I would say I have Villanova and Kansas in the National Championship game.

8. North Carolina:

Schedule them for a National Championship in two more years. The talent is still there this year and I think this is the right spot for them, they just need more experience.

10. Illinois:
11. Michigan:

I think Michigan deserves this spot but Illinois is over ranked here. Put them at #20 at the maximum because they had a good, not great class this past year. I don't see Illinois making this much noise this year even in a fairly weak Big 10.

15. Florida State:

This team has height on the roster to spare and that height has athleticism and talent. I do question whether Leonard Hamilton is the right coach. He let his team stand around and watch Toney Douglas a little bit too much last year. I would push FSU to #18-#20 for the year. Dick Vitale always over ranks ACC teams.

17. Syracuse
18. Mississippi State

I actually don't love Syracuse as much this year for some reason. I like that they actually recruited a young guy who made Paul Harris expendable in DaShonte Riley but otherwise I am not jumping up and down at this point. I think they hover in and out of the Top 25 this year.

I do like Mississippi State though, even if they did recruit the turd in human form Renaldo Sydney. If they can keep him under control then I can see MSU in the Top 15 all year.

20. Georgia Tech

They did get Derrick Favors who is going to be a one man wrecking crew this year but there is no fucking way they are a Top 20 team in the preseason. No way. After stinking up the ACC last year they are going to be a Top 20 team after one year? I don't see it happening.

22. Florida
23. Butler

I would move both of these teams up 5 or 6 spots. Butler and Florida are going to be Top 20 teams this year.

24. Ohio State
26. Boston College
28. Notre Dame

I don't even think Notre Dame is a Top 40 team this year. Move the other two teams back two spots because I don't think either team is good enough to be in the Top 25 either.

29. Clemson

They will move up to #12 after starting 15-0 like they do every year and then end the season out of the Top 25 near this spot.

30. Oklahoma State
33. Minnesota

Both these teams are better than this. I would move Minnesota into the Top 25. Tubby Smith can recruit and this year he has a team with depth but may lack a go to guy, which could limit their chances of winning a couple games and me moving them up further. I would even move Oklahoma State into the Top 15...maybe not all year but for 50% of the year. How's that for hedging?

35. Siena
37. Tulsa

Both of these teams should be in the Top 25 at many points during this year but will not make it as much as they should because of the conferences they play in. Then in the NCAA Tournament the same "experts" who refused to vote them into the Top 25 in the AP Poll will talk about how "dangerous" they are when going against a higher seed in the second round as a #7 or #8 seed. It happens every year and never fails to annoy me.

I noticed one big omission from this list and that was UCLA. I can't help but think they should be ranked in the Top 40 of this list. I put Indiana as my other sleeper team for this year. Yes, I realize I chose two teams that are big name programs but I think both of them are going to be better than expected this year.

I haven't seen any of these teams play yet, so I am sure they will make me look stupid and not fulfill my predictions. Please forgive me if I change my opinion on some of these teams as we get closer to the season as things change for each team and injuries occur. My goal is to get one person to actually care about college basketball. I think I can do it. I am not trying to make fans, just make people not skip over the occasional college basketball stuff on this here blog.


KentAllard said...

If Philip Rivers ever wins a Super Bowl, I'm done with the NFL, because it would be insufferable. He's from this area, and may well be the biggest dick on the planet, even including Osama bin Laden.

What's basketball?

Bengoodfella said...

People in Raleigh, NC love themselves some Philip Rivers. He does seem like a huge dick, just based on his attitude when he played for NC State and his arguments with other team's QBs.

Don't worry, it won't ever least not with the Chargers. That's my prediction at least.

It's a sport where tall people try to put a ball through a basket that has a net at the bottom. I take it you aren't a fan...

The Casey said...

I just don't think Tony Romo's that good. He's been able to put up big numbers at times, but so have guys like Tommy Maddox. People are quick to blame Jessica Simpson for Romo's playoff failures, but if he were really that good a QB, Jessica Simpson wouldn't be making him have a bad game.

I don't know about the Texans. I'm not sure they're better than the Titans (even with BGF's boy at QB), or even the Jaguars. Yes, Andre Johnson is a beast, and Steve Slaton is a very good RB. I'm not quite sold on Schaub, though. Not being able to stay healthy is a big deal, because it's the team on the field that's having to play the game (Look, I'm almost as smooth as Joe Morgan!). Also, we've been hearing this about the Texans for 2-4 seasons now, and they haven't really made the leap.

Michael Crabtree is an idiot. Some body should have Charles Rogers or Mike Williams give him a call and have a little chat with him.

Bengoodfella said...

I don't think Tony Romo is a bad quarterback but I am not sure he is quite as good as everyone seems to think he is. This year we will actually found a lot more I think about him and then I can give him props or knock him down accordingly.

I wasn't sure about the Texans either and then I Looked at their schedule and decided I think the defense is going to step up this year. I may be wrong. I hope my bias against Kerry Collins is not affecting my ability to be right. I just don't see the Titans making it this year to the playoffs. Though I don't think the Chargers will ever have a "year" I think this is the Texans year.

Yes, Michael Crabtree can call some of those guys find out what it is like to play the WR position in the NFL. I think he is trying to ruin his career before it starts.

ivn said...

the Chargers are talented but they're as soft as the luxury hotel pillows Peter King is going to complain about every week this season. my expert prediction: they'll go 10-6 and win their joke of a division, beat Baltimore or Miami or whoever in their first playoff game, then shit the bed against Pittsburgh or the Patriots.

I also think the 49ers can win 8 or 9 games this year, which will probably win their division. maybe I'm being bullish here.

Houston's not making the playoffs. they'll play their way out of contention by Thanksgiving, then win six games in a row to make people excited about next year.

also Atlanta is my pick for the playoff team that slides into mediocrity the next year

the Illini are ranked way too high, they can't recruit worth shit. I think this is the first time they actually landed an in-state top 50 prospect since Self left. maybe Zook can do some freelance recruiting for them.


USA Today released their top 25.

RuleBook said...

I would just like to ask a general question regarding Tony Romo. I am a Cowboys fan, and thus, I am aware that I have a strong bias. However, I think Romo is a very good QB (at least better than Eli Manning). I'd put him around the Cutler/McNabb/Rivers level of QBs - not quite Elite (Warner/Brees/Brady/Manning/maybe Roethlisberger), but on the level right below that. I'm going to present my case, and I really want someone to either refute it, or tell me something I missed.

He has amazing statistics. Casey, Maddox never had good numbers (in his two "good" seasons with PIT, his TD/INT ratio was 20/16 and 18/17, and his QB rating was 85.2 and 75.3). Romo's numbers are among the top in the league statistically for three years. Lets compare his numbers over the last 3 seasons with Drew Brees and Eli Manning, who everyone except me seems to love. I'm going to give you numbers that deal with averages rather than totals, as certain QBs simply throw more than others.

a) Record over last 3 years (including playoffs)
Romo: 27-14 (.659)
Brees: 26-24 (.520)
Manning: 34-20 (.629)
Edge: Romo

b) Playoff record
Romo: 0-2
Brees: 1-1
Manning 4-2
Edge: Manning

c) Completion Percentage for each year (2006, 2007, 2008):
Romo: 65.3, 64.4, 61.3
Brees: 64.5, 67.5, 65.0
Manning: 57.7, 56.1, 60.3
Edge: Brees

d) Yards per Attempt:
Romo: 8.6, 8.1, 7.7
Brees: 8.0, 6.8, 8.0
Manning: 6.2, 6.3, 6.8
Edge: Romo

e) TD/INT ratio:
Romo: 81/46 (1.76)
Brees: 88/46 (1.91)
Manning: 68/48 (1.42)
Edge: Brees

f) QB rating each year:
Romo: 95.1, 97.4, 91.4
Brees: 96.2, 89.4, 96.2
Manning: 77.0, 73.9, 86.4
Edge: Brees

g) Games over 100 QB rating
Romo: 22/41 (53.7%)
Brees: 20/50 (40%)
Manning: 11/54 (20.4%)
Edge: Romo

f) Games under 60 QB rating
Romo: 8/41 (19.5%)
Brees: 4/50 (8%)
Manning: 11/54 (20.4%)
Edge: Brees

I specifically bring up YPA and QB rating, as they award average rather than totals. What we can gather from this is that Brees is clearly the best of these three, which no one will argue. However, Romo is very close to him in a number of statistics. A QB rating over 100 in over half of a QBs games is insane, and an average YPA of 8.1 is also insanely high. If you go to, they have a bunch of evidence that shows the two most highly correlated statistics to winning are yards per attempt and QB rating.

I guess my main point is that Romo isn't just putting up gaudy numbers because he throws a lot. He's putting up huge numbers because he's very successful when he throws. Also, in case I haven't made it clear, I think Manning is not in the same class.

I know the knocks against him are that he's careless with the ball, and I'll agree that he fumbles too much, and throws several boneheaded picks. However, as we can see from the statistics, his TD/INT ratio is fairly good, so he "makes up for it."

The other knock against him is that he collapses at the end of the season. Every very bad game Romo has had except for one (Buffalo in 2007) has occured in December. This is a very valid criticism, of which I am too painfully aware, but if you pay attention, every player on the Cowboys collapses at the end of the season. This is not a Romo-specific thing.

Sorry to sound like a Romo/Cowboys fanboy, but I just fail to see anything that makes Romo not a good QB. No, he's not Elite, but he certainly is pretty good. I know numbers don't mean everything, but by every measurable number, he's among the top QBs in the league. I didn't cherry pick stats or names, either. I just picked Manning because of the recent discussions, and Brees because he was the best QB non named Peyton Manning or Brady.

Please tell me what I'm missing that makes him not very good. I really want to know what my bias is hiding or ignoring.

Bengoodfella said...

I looked at the Illinois recruits for the upcoming year because Vitale had said they recruited well and I wasn't really impressed with what they were bringing in. Maybe he knows something I don't but I don't think they Illini are that great this year either. He ranked them too high.

I saw the preseason rankings and there is already whining that Florida didn't get a unanimous vote. Apparently anything you do that disrespects Florida by not bowing down to them pisses the media off. We all have to bow to Florida this year.

I think the Chargers are kind of soft and maybe that is the intangible they have I don't like but I know they will win the division, I just don't see them winning the Super Bowl. I think Atlanta will have a great year actually, even with White holding out. I feel good about them. I am sticking with my Texans pick for the time being, though after they start 1-5 I may look like an idiot. I think Seahawks will win the West this year.

Again, Rulebook comes through with some numbers, which is something I don't use enough of around here. People tend to put Romo in the Brady, Brees, and Manning category, at least from what I have heard, and I just don't think he is there. So I don't think he is at that level, but I do believe he is on the second tier with Cutler. Eli Manning is not on that level in my mind. People tend to think Romo is up there with the great 3 QB's in the league I think and I believe him to be a step below. Like I said, I don't think he is bad but I don't quite put him in that category of the top 3, while others seem to.

I don't think you are being a Romo fan boy, you are just defending your guy. I am not going to begrudge the guy and call him an average quarterback or anything, and maybe it is my bias that makes me think this, but I see people put him in the elite.

I put him at #6 in my list after the season ended and I would stick him there but have him jump Rivers maybe.

I try not to be biased against Romo and I agreed with Casey because I see Romo as a second tier All-Pro QB but not in the elite few as I think people have put him. I can't argue with your stats because I like him a lot better than Eli Manning but not as much as Brees. I don't put Roethlisberger up there with Romo or Cutler, though I may need to here soon.

Most of the problems Romo has had at the end of the year has been mostly team chemistry induced where someone runs a wrong route or something to that effect. I don't know if he was distracted but he wasn't the only one who collapsed. I may make fun of him a little bit for having bad games at the end of the year but I also realize it is not just his fault.

That being said, this year is going to really elevate him or lower him in my mind. Sorry you think we have a bias against him or something. I try not to do that, but I get the impression (and it may be in my head) people put him with Brady and Brees and I don't think he is there.

Romo still look retarded to me at times but you bring up some good stats. Sorry for rambling on and on.

Bengoodfella said...

Oh and I can't emphasize enough how over ranked the Illini are in Vitale's preseason poll and how much I hate the media bowing down to the Gators.

Martin said...

I think Romo is both overrated and overrated. How's that for Joe Morganesque? I think a lot of people love him or hate him merely because he plays for the Cowboys. He's in that 2nd tier of QB's, but absolutely above Eli Fucking Manning. He plays well against bad to average teams, but is very hit and miss against good teams, and has never carried his team on his back to win a game, that I've seen anyway. I used to have the same knock on Big Ben, but after the game of his life this last Super Bowl, I gotta put Ben at the top of the 2nd tier list.

I think Brady, Peyton and Brees are the three best QB's, and it's not even close. I prefer Brees to Manning, because I think he does more, with less, more often. What he did last year on that Saints team was insane.

I'd put Ben, Rivers, Romo, Cutler, McNabb, at the 2nd tier, with Eli bringing up the rear. Hell, he might even be the lead guy for the tier 3 "guys who are too good to replace for no reason, not good enough to be good".

I'd put Carson Palmer and Warner in the "Great when healthy" category with Ben at the top, but they are too hit and miss the last few years.

As for Crabtree. One fo the radio duo's out here said that they are friends with a good friend of the agent, and that the cousin/dude who said the stuff, was talking out his ass. In essence, Crabtree said something along the lines of "Well I guess if the deal can't get done, I could always go back into the draft next year" in a resigned sort of way, not as a threat. This of course got turned around by the un-official spokesman to be some "they are disrespecting us" thing and a threat. They said Crabtree's agent is an old hand at this stuff and would never say, nor have one of his clients say anything this stupid as a negotiating ploy.

Take it for what it's worth, but that makes some sense to me.

Bengoodfella said...

That's nice Martin, I like the Morgan-esque flip flopping and not really giving an answer. I actually think that may be what I was saying (poorly) in the early comment. I think people tend to rate Romo in the 1st tier and I don't think he is quite there this year but I also think after this year I could put him there. I believe him to be a superior QB to Eli Manning and I would put him in that second tier.

I ranked Warner too high in my rankings at the end of last year and wish I had dropped him some. I guess I am still a hold out on the Roethlisberger in the 2nd tier thing, and I may be the only one that is left.

Either way, Crabtree needs to have his "people" shut the hell up and not ruin negotiations with the 49ers. I don't know too much about Eugene Parker, I know the names of several players that he reps, so I thought this was a bit out of character for him or how I have heard he works. Regardless of the hold up, other 1st round picks have signed and if Crabtree is looking to blow up the slotting system, it's not happening. He needs to get his ass to camp and have his friends shut up.

The Casey said...

OK, I know nobody's going to read this since we've got newer posts up, but I was too lazy to check over the weekend.

I didn't mean he was a bad QB, just that he's not the elite QB he gets touted as. I went digging through some stats too, and here's what I saw. Taking yards per attempt, he has decreased every season, from 7.76 to 7.42 to 7.07. His completion percentage has also declined, from 65.3 to 64.4 to 61.3. His QB rating has gone from 95.1 to 97.4 to 91.4.

I think that teams are getting a handle on how to defend him, and I'm not sure he's making adjustments. Which suggests to me that he is very physically talented, but may not have the adaptability to make adjustments when defenses take something away from him, or he doesn't have his "A" stuff.

We are talking about only three seasons, though, so, over the course of his career, last year could be a statistical outlier. I didn't mean to say that he was bad, just not elite. Sorry, Rulebook.

Bengoodfella said...

Don't worry Casey, I still read the comments from older posts.

I think we were saying similar things in that we think Romo is in the second tier of QB's for the year. Your numbers are sort of interesting as well, but they could coincide with the fact there was a lot of team disharmony during that period. I don't know, maybe not.

I see what you are saying, and Rulebook did defend his reasoning pretty well...but I still think this is a big year for Romo, at least in my mind.