5 comments Minnesota Twins, New York Mets, New York Yankees, and Oakland Athletics 2010 Team Previews

This week I am previewing the Minnesota Twins, New York Mets, New York Yankees, and Oakland Athletics. It's a large market and small market extravaganza this week. I will start off first with the Minnesota Twins.

Minnesota Twins

Lineup

Who would have ever thought the Delmon Young for Matt Garza trade with the Rays (or Devil Rays at the time) would be so lopsided on the side of the Devil Rays? Young is at the point he may not see regular playing time in left field if Jason Kubel is already in LF and Thome is the DH. Young is still fairly young, but I would have thought he would be a much better player than he currently is. I like this lineup and of course any talk about the Twins lineup has to start with Joe Mauer, Justin Morneau, and Jason Kubel. All of these players had great years last year. I can't help but wonder if Mauer's power is here to stay. He doubled his previous career high last year. I think he can hit that many home runs again and maybe some of the doubles he hit previously went out last year, but I still wonder if he can keep it up. The best part about this lineup is they have speed with Span and power with Kubel, Cuddyer, Morneau, and Mauer. I don't like Brendan Harris or Nick Punto at third base and I don't know what the hell was wrong with J.J. Hardy last year in Milwaukee. He was god-awful last year. It's a good lineup, but they also have the typical holes a "small market" team like Minnesota will have. They even signed Orlando Hudson which is a massive upgrade from their second basemen from last year. This is the strength of this team.

Rotation

I couldn't have named the #1 starter if I had to for the Twins. This isn't because they don't have a good group of starters, but because their starters seem to be fairly anonymous. The best starter on this staff could very well be Francisco Liriano, who is still recovering from surgery two seasons ago. I don't hate the Twins staff but they didn't have a single starter from last year with an ERA under 4.00. Not that ERA is the end-all-be-all, but it does serve as an indication that the starters aren't the best in MLB. Scott Baker is the de-facto #1 in the rotation and Kevin Slowey is right behind him. After sampling the offerings of Carl Pavano last year, the Twins decided to take a ride for a full season. Hopefully he will be real/fake injury free this year. This isn't a great staff, it's a decent staff, but it's not a pitching rotation that is good enough to win a playoff series...at least not in my mind. I am going to be interested to see how the starters adjust to not playing in the Metrodome this year. I don't think they can turn the fans that blow air on the field anymore or control the wind when they are in the new outside stadium (like used to do in the Metrodome...they turned on the fans when they were at-bat and turned them off when they were in the field), so they don't have that advantage anymore.

Bullpen

Here is the big question. How much, if at all, will Joe Nathan be able to pitch this year? In my opinion, he is just delaying the inevitable by getting a 2nd and 3rd opinion on his elbow. He is going to have Tommy John surgery, it's just a matter of when he accepts this fact. This obviously severely hurts the bullpen, so who will step in for the Twins? Really they have options. I think Matt Guerrier will get the 1st shot at the closer job, but Jon Rauch could probably do it in a pinch as well. Jose Mijares is almost unhittable when it comes to pitching against LH batters, but I don't think they will end up making him the closer. It's more likely Rauch or Guerrier are the closer. Overall, even without Nathan this isn't a bad bullpen. They have Clay Condrey who pitched well last year and Pat Neshek and Glen Perkins give them some depth. There will be a drop-off without Nathan but I don't know if it will be quite as bad as anticipated.

What I Like

I like the lineup and I like what is left of the bullpen. I really like that the crappy 2B from last year, Alexi Casilla, and Nick Punto are going to be on the bench for this year. The Twins have great depth on the bench, maybe not quality depth, but players that are used to starting and can make a contribution off the bench. Even without Nathan, Guerrier and Mijares are a good combination in the bullpen and I think the Twins have a couple other guys there who are going to be able to at least fill in during Nathan's (presumed) absence. The Twins lineup is pretty good, they have decent starting pitching and I like the Jim Thome signing as well as having Delmon Young be the 4th outfielder. I don't like him as a starter, but when he is either platooning or is the 4th outfielder then I think that gives the Twins another good bat off the bench.

What I Don't Like

I feel like I am hard on starting pitching, but I don't really like their starting pitchers. This is a team that is trying to win the AL Central for the 6th year out of 9 years and I don't know if the starting pitching is good enough to do this. If Liriano pitches well this year, then that will give the staff an ace and I will like how the guys fall in behind him, but it remains to be seen if he can be that pitcher we saw in his rookie year. I also don't really like the uncertainty that comes with Nathan being injured, though I do think other guys will step up, it does kill some of the late inning depth the Twins had. It's a good team and the Orlando Hudson signing was a good signing, though I am still torn on the J.J. Hardy trade. This is a team that I think will compete for the AL Central title, but I see a rotation full of #3 guys and not guys who are good enough to win a playoff series or match up well with even some of the other teams in the AL Central.

Final Record

I think the Twins are going to have a good year and I do hesitate to count them out. They haven't seemed to have a good enough team in the past and have competed in the AL Central. I do think the pitching staff is going to be good enough to win games this year, but I question whether they can compete with the White Sox and Tigers starting pitching. This lineup is quality enough to hit the ball well and get some wins for a staff that I am less than impressed with. As long as Guerrier and Mijares can do the job again in the pen, the loss of Nathan will be felt, but hopefully not too much. Still, there has to be some fall-off from his absence. This is a good team, but I don't know if this is the AL Central winning team this year. If Liriano turns it around, if they get some more help from the starting pitching and if the bullpen holds up without Nathan I can see them winning the division. That's a lot of "ifs" though.

Last year: 87-76
This year: 84-78

New York Mets

Lineup

First things first. This team should not have as many injuries as they did last year. David Wright shouldn't struggle with his power like he did last year and Jason Bay is a good addition to their outfield. It balances out the incredible uselessness of Jeff Francoeur. Think I sound bitter, Mets fans? Just wait until you get to see him for an entire year. You'll want to murder him, he's very frustrating. That being said, I do not hate this Mets lineup, but I also have a hard time figuring out exactly what it can do. Beltran is coming off surgery, Reyes is a hyperthi-something or another, they "upgraded" the catcher position with Rod Barajas, and Daniel Murphy is getting a second full season look at first base. Rod Barajas is a lot of power and not much else, and there isn't a whole lot behind him either, while Daniel Murphy isn't even close to being the power first baseman that many contending teams want. Of course he is only 24 years old. Much of this season depends on how Beltran bounces back, how Wright bounces back, how Reyes bounces back and what Jason Bay gives them. It's still a pretty good looking lineup, it's just a lineup that has question marks. I don't think Luis Castillo is quite as useless as people may want to believe he is and the fences being moved in at Citi Field will do wonders for the offense, if only to psychologically help them. It's a good lineup, but it also has a lot of question marks in regard to the production the team can expect from some players in the lineup due to previous injury questions.

Rotation

A team can do a lot worse than starting off the rotation with the best left handed pitcher in baseball. From Johan Santana on, it's a few question marks that comprise this rotation. Yes, Pelfrey, Maine, and Perez should be good pitchers this year, but will they end up meeting this potential? I am not as high on Pelfrey and Perez, but I can see John Maine having a good year. Perez has even looked terrible in spring training this year, while Maine will be healthy and hopefully having a healthy lineup hitting for him. The fifth starter spot is between Fernando Nieves and Jon Niese. Neither of these guys are going to end up being quality starters in the majors, so I am surprised the Mets didn't upgrade this offseason. I feel like they should have done more to the rotation in order to improve it. I just see a staff of (terrible band name alert) Johan and the Question Marks this upcoming year. Perez has never met his potential, Pelfrey is probably going to run out of chances if he has a bad year this year, and John Maine has to stay healthy.

Bullpen

The good news is if the Mets ever do have a lead, they have a closer who can keep that lead in Francisco Rodriguez. He's sometimes an adventure, but he is a good closer. I thought Kelvim Escobar was going to help and be a good set up guy, but he is having soreness in his arm and there are thoughts out there he may retire. So I don't even know if he will play this year or not. Who knows what Ryota Igarashi is going to do this year, since he has never pitched in the majors before. Pedro Feliciano is a quality LH set up guy and other than him there isn't too much to get excited about in the bullpen. Nelson Figueroa had made a few starts last year but it looks like his immediate future is in the bullpen. I have hopes this could end up being a quality pen for the Mets, but I am also not sure based on last year if my hopes are going to be dashed. It doesn't seem like outside of K-Rod and Feliciano there are too many quality arms in the pen for the Mets.

What I Like

I like most of the Mets lineup and I love the fact I think 2/5 of the starting rotation are going to be quality this year. Santana and Maine should be two quality pitchers for the Mets and top-of-the-line starters at that...more so for Santana of course. The Mets lineup has power if Wright bounces back, Beltran recovers from his surgery, and Reyes makes it back healthy as well. Jason Bay is also going to add a middle-of-the-order guy which will help the Mets out as well. I also like Gary Matthews Jr. as a 4th outfielder, the potential of Fernando Martinez, and Fernando Tatis and Alex Cora as backups. The Mets have a pretty good bench and if they have some injuries to 2B or the outfield there will be guys who have started who can step in. They may not replace the production of the guy who is injured, but at least there isn't a rookie starting in their place. The Mets can't have worse luck than they had last year.

What I Don't Like

I don't like the catcher position, the starting rotation depth and the fact many of the Mets guys are recovering from injuries. I don't know how much Barajas can really provide to the Mets, Murphy isn't an ideal 1B from a hitting perspective, and key guys like Beltran may not be 100% after the injuries suffered last year. I can't help but think the Mets didn't improve their team much from last year. They got different players and added some depth, but how much better are they really...even with the injured players coming back? This is a team that should have won the division last year if they had healthy and productive guys. Was the struggles of Wright, Maine, and Perez a sign of things to come or just a part of the avalanche from last year? I think it is a combination of both. I don't think Perez will be a viable starter and some of the Mets hopes to keep things together by not making too many changes seems destined to backfire to me. I just don't know even without injuries how good this team can be.

Final Record

Last year I picked the Mets to win the NL East...I think. I look at the lineup and see some guys I like, I like the middle of the order, and no one can argue with Santana pitching every 5 days. This team is going to be better this year, even if just by default. How good can this team be though? I don't know. It has to be somewhere in my mind between the team that collapsed the past couple of years before last year and last year's team. Wright will bounce back, Maine will bounce back, but I just don't think they have the lineup to compete with the Phillies and I don't think they have the pitching staff to compete with the Phillies or Braves. The Mets have certain spots in the lineup that will hit the ball and other spots I am not so sure about. I know one thing, this isn't a playoff team right now.

Last year: 70-92
This year: 83-79

New York Yankees

Lineup

On to the World Champion New York Yankees. Will they repeat? It is possible. Everyone pretty much knows about the Yankees lineup at this point. Tex, Cano, Jeter, and A-Rod make up an excellent infield and I don't see any of their numbers falling off significantly for this upcoming year. This is going to be a Yankees team that can hit the ball with power and will be a strong offensive team. I do have some questions about the left field situation though. I don't think that either Randy Winn or Brett Gardner are going to be the answer in left field and I see the Yankees making a trade during the season to shore up that spot in their lineup. Every lineup can't be perfect, but the Yankees try to have as perfect of a lineup as possible. Nick Johnson essentially steps in for Hideki Matsui at the DH and Jorge Posada will be batting there more often this year with Cervilli spelling him at catcher. I don't have too many concerns, but Curtis Granderson is going to provide the Yankees with some youth and hitting in centerfield, though his numbers against LH pitching do leave something to be desired. I don't see him as quite the addition that others may see him as in the outfield. Don't get me wrong, he is an upgrade, but I don't know if he is going to be the star that some see him as...especially if he can't hit LH pitching very well.

Rotation

The Yankees upgraded in my mind when they got Javy Vazquez. He is going to the American League where he hasn't had as much success in the past, but he isn't going to be asked to be the ace of this staff, just the #3/#4 starter, which I believe he is more than capable of filling. The big question for the rotation is who is going to be the 5th starter. Given their performances in the spring, I think Philip Hughes will end up winning this spot over Joba Chamberlain and the loser will be relegated to being an excellent set up guy in the bullpen. I have concerns about Burnett holding up or even being effective, but the addition of Vazquez helps quell those concerns, while Pettitte is a more than capable starter for a team that just wants him to eat innings and pitch well in the postseason. Offense isn't a problem with this team, but they do have a good pitching staff and as long as Burnett stays healthy I think it will stay that way. I would personally prefer Hughes to be in the bullpen over Chamberlain, but Chamberlain has been terrible in spring training, I don't see how they can start him this year.

Bullpen

When Mariano Rivera starts declining, please wake me up and tell me. It may never happen, or at least it seems that way. This is a good bullpen with the Chamberlain/Hughes rotation loser going to be in the set up role and Marte, Aceves, and Robertson complementing the pen in middle relief. I saw Boone Logan play in Atlanta last year and he is a decent LOOGY, so I don't believe there has been much fall off in the Yankees bullpen this offseason without Phil Coke in there. Obviously if Rivera ever starts blowing saves then the bullpen will struggle, but at this point, I don't know if that will ever happen. The concerns I have for the pen is that I am afraid it may have overachieved last year a bit and the bridge to Rivera isn't as safe as it seemed, especially in middle relief. Rivera isn't in a position anymore in his career to make too many 2 inning saves so the guys in front of him have to be as good as they were last year. Really this bullpen ends up depending on the set up guy and Rivera because if any of the other spots are weak, the Yankees will find a way to upgrade...or at least try to.

What I Like

I absolutely love the lineup. Barring Posada all of a sudden getting old, injuries and overall ineffectiveness, this is going to be a lineup that can win games without great pitching. They have strengthened the team by adding Granderson, Tex and A-Rod are the best 1-2 hitting combination in baseball, and only on a team like the Yankees can hitters like Robinson Cano and Nick Swisher get a little overlooked. The depth of this team leaves a lot to be desired, Ramiro Pena and Brett Gardner are the primary backups. They did sign Marcus Thames in the offseason as well. Of course I love the front of the pitching staff, the improved depth of the pitching staff, the front of the bullpen and the fact this team's management will do whatever it takes to put a winner out on the field. Good teams like Boston and New York tend to do that. Jeter shows no signs of dropping off and I don't think his contract situation is going to bother him this year and the Yankees have great options for the 5th starter spot.

What I Don't Like

This is a fairly old team. It hasn't come back to bite the Yankees, but what if Posada gets injured and can't catch regularly or the LF situation doesn't sort itself out and Curtis Granderson still can't hit LH pitching? At some point Rivera, Posada and Jeter would start falling off...logic just dictates this to be true. I just don't like the options they have in left field and I don't like they have pretty much no bench depth. Nick Johnson is not a pillar of health himself and he is the backup at 1B and the regular designated hitter. I wish they had more depth on the bench, though this is a team built around the stars and as the stars go, this team is going to go as well. It's just how the team is built. They figure if they lose Tex, Jeter or A-Rod to injury no one can even replace them anyway, so why try? I don't have too many concerns other than Burnett getting injured or being ineffective or Javy Vazquez struggling in returning to the American League. Last year was a dream year of sorts for the Yankees. Many of the moves they made last year worked out well for them and I don't like that can't seem to stay the same for them this year. It doesn't mean it won't though.

Final record

This is a good Yankees team. They have gotten younger and improved at certain spots in the outfield. So theoretically this team should be as good as last year's team. The rotation is deeper, the lineup is better, and the defense is improved as well. I don't see much fall-off other than possibly having some injuries or A.J. Burnett decide he has done enough to fulfill his contract and there isn't any more he will try to do. The Yankees will make the playoffs but I don't know if they will be as good as last year's team. I think they will win the East, but I also believe it will be a lot closer than last year. They have improved pitching and hitting, so that should override any concerns they may catch a few bad breaks along the way.

Last year: 103-59
This year: 99-63

Oakland Athletics

Lineup

The lineup for the A's is not good. I want to go ahead and state my position on this. I am not sure if there is but a couple guys in this everyday lineup that should be starting RIGHT NOW for a MLB team. Maybe Kurt Suzuki, Mark Ellis, and maybe Jack Cust. This is not a good lineup in my mind. Sure, it's a lineup that has a bunch of young guys and guys who could potentially have breakout years, but is currently not a good lineup. The outfield looks like a AAAA squad with Rajai Davis, Ryan Sweeney, and Coco Crisp out there...or at least it looks like what would happen if a good team started it's backups all in one game. The infield has Kevin Kouzmanoff who was supposed to be good for the Padres, but never was, and that was 3-4 years ago. Daric Barton has potential, Cliff Pennington has potential, and other than that it is too hard to get excited about this lineup right now. This is a lineup that is going to have some trouble scoring runs unless it looks a lot worse on paper (and in the career statistics) than it does in real life.

Rotation

The A's picked up Ben Sheets in the offseason. It's not a bad signing because he can be a quality pitcher again, I just don't understand what motivated them to start spending money on starting pitching...and especially starting pitching that comes expensive and with as much risk as Sheets. ERA and record aside, I like Brett Anderson and Trevor Cahill. Also, they are getting Justin Duchscherer back from injury this year and when he comes back he will immediately be the #3/#4 starter. So there is some decent starting pitching here, albeit young starting pitching. Then there is Dallas Braden, who showed signs last year of becoming a great pitcher and seemed to be the de-facto ace. So the A's have a pretty good set of starting pitchers and that doesn't include Vin Mazzaro and Gio Gonzalez, both of whom could very well end up in the bullpen this year. It's good starting pitching, but it is young starting pitching as well. These guys haven't become good pitchers yet, but they are definitely learning. In the realm of the 2010 A's, this starting pitching is a strength and if Ben Sheets starts playing well, maybe he could be trade bait and get the A's some more prospects in return. (Also, I know I am linking the ESPN depth chart for these teams, but the ESPN depth chart could not be less helpful. It doesn't list Dallas Braden as a starter for the A's. I think they just pick 5 random pitchers and put them in the starting rotation for each team. It's not the first time something obvious like this has happened when I was researching teams. Get your shit together ESPN.com!)

Bullpen

As I said above, some of the guys who don't make the rotation are going to end up possibly going down to AAA or going to the bullpen. Last year's reigning Rookie of the Year will be closing out the baseball games where the A's actually have the lead and he is a great asset to have. He had a fantastic year last year and if he can come close to reproducing it this year the A's are going to have no problem winning games in the 9th inning. Brad Ziegler also had a pretty good year last year and will serve as the set up guy to Bailey. What little he played last year, Brad Kilby was a good relief pitcher as well. Obviously the A's aren't looking to break the bank with relievers or any other position player, but given this fact it's not a bad bullpen. The problem is going to lie in the fact I don't know how many leads the A's are actually going to have in the 9th inning because, as I have mentioned, this is a terrible offense...or at least an offense that looks terrible. If they get it to these guys in the late innings I think the A's will be fine. It just has to be able to get to that point.

What I Like

I like how the A's build a team. Not in a "Moneyball" way or anything, but they trade players to other teams and get good prospects back in return. Chris Carter will probably make an impact of some type this upcoming year and he came over in the Dan Haren trade. They don't just trade prospects, but they trade prospects for other players who they develop and those players become good baseball players as well. I also like that Michael Taylor is on his way up to the big leagues as well, which means the A's are succeeding at what I just described. The problem is of course these guys aren't ready to contribute greatly to the offense at this point. I like the pitching staff of the A's as well. I don't have the feeling these guys aren't good pitchers, just guys who haven't pitched long enough in the majors to get enough experience and be good starters. Also, barring any type of fall-off Andrew Bailey should be the closer in Oakland for a few more years until they trade him for more prospects. He's the kind of guy a team like the A's needs to ensure if they have a lead, they keep that lead.

What I Don't Like

I just don't like this lineup. I really mean what I say when I mentioned the outfield is a collection of guys who should are AAAA ball players or are backups on a good team. Sure, they aren't terrible players but they have low ceilings and aren't going to provide much in the power department. I also don't really like the backups in the lineup right now. Eric Patterson, Eric Chavez, Travis Buck and Jake Fox are the primary backups. They aren't exactly a murderer's row of hitters off the bench. Maybe I am being too hard on the lineup, but I don't think so. It's just not good at this point. The pitchers for this team are good, though I would like to see a little bit more good pitching in the back-end of the bullpen, but it's hard for a team like the A's to be solid throughout their staff. Overall, I just don't know how the A's are going to score runs to win games.

Final Record

The pitching is good. I think Ben Sheets was a good signing, though I am a little surprised they spent as much money on him as they did. I think Braden and Cahill are going to continue to progress, which would make the starting pitching the strength of this team. If Joey Devine is able to come back, the bullpen is going to be stronger, but I don't know how many leads this team will end up having. I am sure some of the offensive players for the A's are going to have better-than-expected years simply because of their age and they are developing, but in an improving AL West I don't know if that will be enough. Every other team in this division is a clearly better team than the A's. The starting pitching is going to be able to win them some games, but I don't see this team contending for a playoff spot for another 1-2 years.

Last year: 75-87
This year: 68-94

Next week I will be back with four more teams.