9 comments MMQB Review: Peter Has a Great New Theory That Isn't Great and Not Really New

Last week in MMQB Peter King did his agent's bidding by reporting on the St. Louis Rams' draft room. Peter's agent is the father of the Rams COO and Peter's article on the Rams appeared in this week's "Sports Illustrated." It turns out (puts on shocked face) the Rams got exactly the players they wanted in the 2013 NFL Draft. Who ever could believe a General Manager would claim the players his team drafted were the players that team wanted all along? It also turns out that Les Snead has a mole in the Denver Broncos organization because he spent five minutes on the phone with an unnamed person (notice how Peter got full access to the Rams draft room except for the important shit his readers really want to know) who knew at #28 the Broncos were looking at Sylvester Williams, Eddie Lacy, and Alec Ogletree. I find it interesting Les Snead had this knowledge (and again, great job not getting who it was on the other end of the phone...it's not like the Rams only let Peter report the information that made them look good or anything, which was all part of Marvin Demoff's plan) and also find it interesting that the Broncos had Eddie Lacy on their board to be picked at #28, but the Broncos didn't choose him there and then chose Montee Ball over Lacy at #58. I'm not sure I can trust the information on who the Broncos were thinking of taking at #28 since it seems if the Broncos wanted Lacy at #28 they would get him at #58 as opposed to choosing another running back.

Peter also thought the Jets should cut Mark Sanchez immediately last week, which probably isn't something required to happen right now. This week in MMQB Peter talks about which teams will control the 2014 draft, which is something he does every year and then it rarely seem to turn out like he thinks it will. For a couple years he said the Patriots would control the draft and then the Patriots ended up trading back and their control of the draft was forgotten. It's a lazy kind of writing where Peter sees which team has the most picks and then announces they control the next year's draft. Peter also has non-football related observations which we all were so eagerly not waiting for him to relate to us. 

It struck me during the draft, while watching the Rams go hard after Tavon Austin and Alec Ogletree, that there are four kinds of draft strategists in football today:

This serves as your reminder that Peter wrote a column about how the Rams draft war room in the latest "Sports Illustrated." Marvin Demoff is very proud right now.

Those who mostly sit near or right where they are high in the draft (Pittsburgh, the Giants, Green Bay, Cincinnati, among many others) and let the draft come to them.

You mean sort of like how the Giants traded up to draft Eli Manning? The Giants certainly let the draft come to them that day.

(It was rightly pointed out in the comments I have misremembered. The Giants didn't trade up for the #1 pick, but that pick was made by the Chargers and then traded to the Giants. I am wrong about that. This does help reinforce the point I have made countless times when old-school baseball writers mention they recall how great Jack Morris was and that's why he should be in the Hall of Fame. They remember him being great, which is why you had to watch Jack Morris pitch to know he belongs in the Hall of Fame. The memory of humans can suck. Like how I used a semi-strawman to divert attention from my being wrong about Eli Manning onto a discussion on how my being wrong proves another point I have tried to make previously? Very sneaky.)

Those who enter the draft with an eye on specific players and use picks as capital to go buy the objects of their affection (Atlanta, St. Louis).

An amalgam of those two ways of drafting (Baltimore, Minnesota, Seattle). Drafts are snowflakes, and they decide what to do after they set their boards.

Board-users (New England, San Francisco) married to nothing other than maximizing picks as value, unafraid of either going after a player they love (Pats: Jerod Mayo; Niners: Eric Reid) or, in the Jimmy Johnson way, trading down often because future picks are currency to get players they want.

So there are NFL teams afraid of going after a player they love? If a team has the picks to go after a player they love and the trade up is right, then why wouldn't this team go after the player? In fact, the 49ers did exactly that this year in trading up to get Eric Reid, which puts them in the group of teams who have an eye on specific players and use picks as capital to go get these players. The fourth kind of team is sort of like the second kind of team. The only difference is that the fourth kind of team will also trade back, but the 49ers moved up this year to get Reid, so wouldn't that make them the second AND fourth kind of team? Or to put a team in two categories would reveal that Peter's list of the kind of draft strategies teams use is based on short-term observation and really isn't true over the long-term? When Peter writes "draft strategists in football today," he means "today" as in "this past year" and this list of four kinds of teams' draft strategies possibly won't be true for the 2014 NFL Draft.

Check out what the Vikings did in the first round. They let the draft fall to them, and they also attacked the bottom of the round when Cordarrelle Patterson fell to them.

It's almost like NFL teams adapt different strategies depending on the talent pool in each NFL Draft and there are no set "kind" of draft strategies which certain teams employ from year-to-year. It's almost like this is true, but because this would mean Peter's list isn't accurate over the long-term and that couldn't be true, could it?

"Every draft is different, but among the ones I've seen, I thought this one was unique. So little separation between five and 25, to us. So with the talent being so even, I think teams homed in on need instead of taking the best player available -- because the best player available, this year, was such a close call on player after player.

There are four kinds of draft strategies in this year's draft, but having knowledge of this doesn't help in next year's draft or the draft after that because the talent pool available is different, so teams may adopt a different strategy. So observing the types of strategy different teams used in the 2013 NFL Draft is interesting to read and understand, but may have zero applicability to the 2014 NFL Draft. There aren't certain kinds of teams who use one certain strategy, but there are teams who adopted certain strategies in this year's draft.

So Spielman wrecked the rest of his board, basically, to move up to draft the immensely talented Patterson. (Talented, yes, but some scouts question his maturity. He doesn't come without risk.)

No draft pick comes without risk, especially a draft pick who has been in trouble during his college career and even got arrested recently...but we know no team would EVER choose a player in the first round who was arrested in February.

"But as far as your theory on draft philosophy, I am right on the fence," he said.

Translation: No team adopts a certain strategy and will try to use a mix of the four strategies that Peter just listed. If a team does adopt one certain strategy and isn't the least bit malleable than that team isn't going to succeed in building a team through the draft.

You don't want to just give those picks away. You have to be careful there, and I like to be patient. But you also have to know when to go get a guy you really want and really need."

Again, it's almost like NFL teams use a combination of these strategies and will go after a player they want if they have enough picks, will trade back if there isn't a player they want, and then if the draft is falling their way will just stick to their board and have one of their favorite players hopefully fall to them. So we are right back with the knowledge we had before Peter started writing this week's MMQB. 

It's easy to say a team had a good draft when the first three picks come in the first round. But they weren't 8-11-9. They were 23-25-29, and if the Vikings hit on two of them, they will have had a great day.

If they hit on none of them then they will have had a very bad day. If they hit on all three of them then they still have Christian Ponder as their starting quarterback.

It's too early to say who was right on this draft day, and there is no one correct draft philosophy.

But there are four draft philosophies, no more and no less.

But Green Bay, Pittsburgh and the Giants, all of whom have been less aggressive historically, have won five of the last eight Super Bowls. The right answer is having the right scheme on both sides of the ball, and picking players who fit them, and never panicking when you don't get the guy you want. 

These three teams also have franchise quarterbacks which always helps a team win a Super Bowl. Of course if Peter thinks he is telling us anything new by saying NFL teams have to have the right scheme and must pick players who fit that scheme well then he must also believe most of his audience is really stupid. This is quite obvious.

It's early, I know, but the Rams and Niners could own the '14 draft.

They have the most picks, which gives them the most options. This doesn't mean they will own the 2014 NFL Draft.

The Rams still have the best-looking 2014 draft profile. St. Louis is the only team with an extra first-round pick, courtesy of the last of three first-rounders from the Robert Griffin III trade in 2012. Three straight years with two first-rounders (at least to start the draft) is a great way to rebuild a franchise, obviously.

Not in Gregg Easterbrook's opinion. He thinks the best way to rebuild a franchise is to sign as many undrafted free agents as possible and trade away those first round picks otherwise spent on highly-paid glory boys.

San Francisco has its own choices in the first three rounds, plus what could be three additional third-rounders. The rundown:

An extra three from Tennessee, from a deal this year in which the Titans traded from 40 to 34 in the second round.

A possible extra three as a compensatory pick for Dashon Goldson signing a rich deal with Tampa Bay, and the 49ers not signing a major free agent on Goldson's level. If not a third-, then almost certainly a fourth-round pick.

And a third- or second-rounder from Kansas City, the remnant of the Alex Smith deal. Now it can be told: The second draft choice San Francisco will receive from the Smith deal will be K.C.'s second-rounder in 2014 if the Chiefs go 8-8 or better this season. It will be a third-rounder in 2014 if Kansas City is under .500 this season.

So basically we have no idea how many second or third round draft picks the 49ers may have. There is a difference in a third or fourth round pick, so it isn't like if the 49ers are compensated at a fourth round pick then this is the same thing as being compensated a third round pick. I don't know why Peter is infatuated with the idea of a team controlling the draft, but he writes about this every year and it gets tiresome. Extra picks are obviously great, but I recall Peter talking for a couple of years how the Patriots would control the draft with their extra picks and it never quite turned out that way.

2. Knee, heal thyself. Darrelle Revis' first three starts as a Buc: vengeance game at Meadowlands, presumably against Mark Sanchez, then Drew Brees and Tom Brady. Hope the rehab is timely.

Oh sure, NOW Peter jumps on the "I hope the injury doesn't linger too long" wagon in regard to Revis. Welcome, Peter.

4. Turf monster. "I love the 'Turf,'' Tavon Austin told me with a smile last weekend. His first five NFL games, and nine of his first 11, will be on the fake stuff. I know everyone is waiting for him to get hurt, and I know they're bigger, faster, and stronger in the NFL, but remember Austin missed one practice and zero games due to injury in four years at West Virginia.

While this is a good point, let's also remember that some football players hate turf because they claim it is actually harder on their knees. I'm not saying Austin will get injured and I am sure he will be just fine, but playing on the turf isn't the same as playing on grass.

8. Welcome Matt.Matt Flynn, Oakland quarterback, gets lucky. His two opening starts, assuming he wins the Raider quarterback job, come against the 26th- and 30th-rated defenses in 2012, Indianapolis and Jacksonville.

He's also lucky he gets to play the Chiefs twice next year. That's a fortunate turn of events.

10. Taste of Honey. If Tyrann Mathieu wins the starting free safety job in Arizona (it's unlikely he'll unseat vet Yeremiah Bell), his reward would be to face two No. 1 overall passers to start -- Sam Bradford, Matthew Stafford -- and then Drew Brees in game three.

I like how Peter words this. "If Tyrann Mathieu wins the starting free safety job, which he won't do..."

If he isn't going to win the job, what's the point of speculating? It's like saying, "If Matt Barkley is able to win the Super Bowl in his rookie season, which probably won't happen, then he could end up being the greatest quarterback in NFL history."

The Niners' new 68,500-seat stadium is due to open in time for the 2014 season ... 54 years after Candlestick Park opened. Super Bowl 48 will be played in New Jersey next February, with Super Bowl 49 slated for the Cardinals' stadium in Glendale, Ariz., in February 2015. So the 49ers would have two full seasons to work out the kinks before the big game.

The city of Miami would like to once again thank Jeff Loria for being such a cheapskate, douchebag asshole so that memories of him fucking over Marlins fans were still fresh in the voter's minds when they went to vote for the 1% hotel tax increase, which was intended to be used in helping make improvements to Dolphins Stadium. Jeff Loria is the gift that just keeps on taking and keeping everyone else's gifts (luxury tax) while pretending he gives a shit about baseball in the Miami area. I believe voters in some part remembered Loria using tax payer money to build the new Marlins park and then tearing the Marlin team apart again. Voters had to remember this and I can't help but believe it played even a small part in the measure passing.

The team worked hard to make theirs the greenest stadium in major pro sports. There will be 20,000 square feet of solar panels, a charging station for electric cars, loads of bicycle parking, and a living roof full of green plants.

Stupid hippies.

So there is going to be a lot of bicycle parking for the loads of 49ers fans that will be riding their bike to home games?

The Dolphins were so desperate to get this deal done that Ross said he'd pay for the special election for it, so the people of South Florida could decide for themselves. One source told me Ross was confident the vote would pass, even after so many in south Florida were outraged at the carpetbaggery of Marlins owner Jeffrey Loria. Now Ross has to hope the league will risk playing a historic Super Bowl in a pretty average stadium, without upgrades. I think it's likely the league goes to the Bay Area instead.

Plus, the Dolphins won't have a living roof full of green plants. That is very important to have when hosting a Super Bowl. Sure, San Francisco will have a better stadium and a charging station for electric cars, but who wouldn't want to go to a Super Bowl in Miami? Maybe the week before the Super Bowl can take place in Miami and then move the festivities to San Francisco for the actual Super Bowl?

Happy to announce this morning that my new football-centric microsite, which we'll kick off July 22, is adding a couple of strong column voices: Andrew Brandt and Richard Deitsch.

This site still has no name. Also, I need more material so I would encourage Peter to hire Jay Mariotti so I can immediately start writing about his columns and complaining Mariotti has a job writing about sports.

Two Brandt Factoids You Did Not Know: He went on double-dates in high school with Julia Louis-Dreyfuss (she with a friend of his). And he repped Ricky Williams out of Texas -- before Williams left him for the rapper Master P. Really looking forward to Brandt's insights for us.

I didn't know Brandt repped Williams out of Texas. Maybe he can start repping some St. Louis Rams and Peter can write about what great players these Rams players are and there can be corporate synergy within the new football-centric microsite Peter is kicking off on July 22.

The Vikings drafted a punter, Jeff Locke, in the fifth round of the draft, the first punter or kicker drafted this year. Chris Kluwe, Minnesota's 31-year-old incumbent, met with Vikings GM Rick Spielman last week, and Spielman told me the team wanted to get through the weekend's rookie minicamp before making any decisions on the future of the punting position. But it seems pretty clear the team is giving strong consideration to going to training camp with only one punter -- Locke.

And of course the idea of Chris Kluwe losing his job makes everyone in the media sad because he says and writes what he means. He's so outspoken and the media loves that. They probably believe Kluwe deserves to keep his job simply because of how active he is in giving his opinion.

If the decision is made on performance, it's hard to see Kluwe not having a place as an NFL punter.

And this is the part where some people in the media will start to go to bat for Kluwe to find another job simply because they like him so much.

Four numbers why:

This is otherwise known as "four numbers presented without any context" why:

Kluwe has punted for eight years in the NFL, all of them with the Vikings. His 39.7-yard net average in 2012 was a career-best. His 45.0-yard gross average was the third-best in his career.

Kluwe's career-best average was only good for 17th in the NFL. At his career-best, he is an average punter in terms of net average. His third-best gross average was good for 22nd in the NFL. He's an average punter even at his best when determined by both of these metrics.

The numbers say Kluwe's just as good, or even a little better, punting outside. Over the last two seasons, his outdoor average punt -- 45.83 yards -- is better than his 45.30 yards-per-punt indoors. (That includes the playoff game at Green Bay last season.)

These numbers mean very little without context on how well other NFL punters performed indoors and outdoors.

With a scheduled $1.4 million salary this year, Kluwe is not among the top-12-paid punters in the NFL.

It's a good thing he isn't paid in the Top-12 because he isn't a Top-12 punter. The fact Kluwe isn't overpaid really doesn't speak to why he should have a job in the NFL.

Kluwe had a better net average than the famous Shane Lechler last year, and more punts inside the 20 than Mike Scifres two years ago.

One year Kluwe beat Lechler in one category and this is supposed to impress General Managers everywhere. Also, Kluwe was 31st in the NFL in terms of punts inside the 20 last year. 31st. Only Matt McBriar was worse. Again, one year of performing better than one other punter in one category isn't going to be impress General Managers (or shouldn't).

Not that Peter is shading statistics to make Kluwe look better of course. The only reason Peter would do that is if Marvin Demoff asked him to do it. Peter is just reciting cherry-picked statistics without the proper context.

Kluwe likely is toast in Minnesota. But he'll have a major gripe if he's not signed to be someone's punter this year, or at least to come in and compete equally for a job.

No, he actually won't have a major gripe. These are Kluwe's net punting and gross average rankings over the last six seasons:

2012: 17th, 22nd
2011: 22nd, 13th
2010: 10th, 21st
2009: 18th, 15th
2008: 21st, 4th
2007: 14th, 8th

Kluwe has been consistently average over the past four seasons and never been in the Top-10 in net punting average. He probably should get a look in a team's training camp, but I won't be shocked if he doesn't.

If he isn't punting somewhere in late July, there will be no question in my mind that NFL teams want their punters to be seen and not heard.

Or the question in Peter's mind could be whether teams want distractions in their locker room to the point they are willing to bring in a consistently average punter to compete for a job. Maybe Kevin Demoff and the Rams need a punter. Peter should recommend Chris Kluwe to Les Snead. After all, Jeff Fisher is great at taking guys with personality quirks and issues and making them productive.

Traveling back from Dallas to the East Coast Thursday night, my American Airlines flight had a slightly bumpy approach and landing. Nothing too unusual, except to the 12ish-year-old boy across the aisle in row 32. As I stood up to stretch, the boy, without warning from the window seat, projectile-vomited. He caught some of it, but a chunk of it, yogurty in feel, BB'ed into my right ear, with another couple of splashes on my shirt.

Good shot. This is kind of gross, but I like how Peter included "without warning" as if the boy would ordinarily warn everyone around him that he was about to throw up on all of them. Kids tend to throw up without warning.

A flight attendant, duly attentive, rushed up and asked the mom if she needed a bag -- no thanks, it seems to be over now -- and some towels. While they cleaned up, I went into the lavatory and washed my ear like I'd never washed it in my life, which was tough to do in an airplane lav.

I knock Peter's travel notes, but this is pretty disgusting. Clearly the boy did not like the smell of Peter's cologne or Peter was traveling with his shoes off.

Ten Things I Think I Think

1. I think there aren't many years in which the 48th pick in the draft could be the most impactful in September, but with the sordid Steelers running back situation, Le'Veon Bell could hit the ground running for Pittsburgh and not stop. Wouldn't surprise me if he were this year's Alfred Morris, only about 400 fewer yards.

I don't like Le'Veon Bell at all. I'm not an NFL scout, so ignore my opinion if you think it is stupid (or don't ignore it and tell me I am dumb), but given the fact Bell is so tall, doesn't make people miss and he's not very speedy, it concerns me that his center of gravity is too high and he won't make the large impact at the NFL level Peter believes he will. Adrian Peterson and Arian Foster are the only two running backs over 6 feet tall that were Top 10 in the NFL in rushing last year (which is where 400 yards less than Morris would put Bell in terms of yards rushed during the 2012 season). In other words, I think Bell is too tall to be a bowling ball-type running back and he isn't elusive enough to make defenders miss. He could very well make an impact for the Steelers, but I don't expect too many 1000 yard seasons out of him.

3.I think I have three leftover thoughts about the Rams draft, from my night in the draft room:

You have done your job, Peter. Take a break. We all think the Rams did a fantastic job on draft night. No need to keep harping on it. The Demoff family still treasures you.

c. As I've done a couple of times when writing about the Rams, I want to be open about my relationships there.

I will give Peter this much. He is very open about who is agent is. The only reason I know his agent is Marvin Demoff is because Peter gives us this information. Other NFL reporters aren't quite as transparent as Peter is. I'm 50% kidding and 50% not kidding when I joke about Marvin Demoff telling Peter to write about the Rams in a positive way. I don't think admitting your potential biases is in any way admitting you don't still show these biases when writing.

Kevin Demoff is the son of my agent, Marvin Demoff. Jeff Fisher has Marvin Demoff for an agent. I understand some of you would think I am giving favorable treatment to them, and it is human nature to think that. I try my best to be impartial. Many of you think I am not.

It's not even about favorable or unfavorable treatment. It is about the perception of giving favorable or unfavorable treatment to them. Writing on a consistent basis about the Rams being a sleeping giant in the very difficult NFC West, fawning over Blake Williams during Rams training camp last year (when he was fired after one year for not being liked and over his head) and not criticizing Sam Bradford for not exactly meeting expectations yet as the #1 pick in the draft. The Rams gave up the chance to draft Robert Griffin for Sam Bradford. I don't expect Peter to eviscerate Bradford or anything like that, but as tough as Peter can be on some players, he isn't exactly taking the time to point out the opportunity cost of not drafting Griffin and sticking with Bradford.

I look at it this way: If my relationship with Kevin Demoff and Fisher helped me spend the first round inside the Rams' draft room -- and of course it didn't hurt -- then read the story and weigh whether it was worth it. I believe it was.

My bias based on the fact I think Peter has a bias made me believe the story was well-written, but also written to make the Rams look very good. After all, if Peter says something negative about the Rams then he may not be allowed in a team's draft war room again. So there is an inherent bias for continued access to the Rams war room and an inherent bias based on the NFL team whose war room Peter reported on.

But I digress -- there are times I'm going to have to write about people I am closer to than others. 

(cough) Brett Favre.

7.I think the Tyson Clabo signing in a good one for Miami, but a Jonathan Martin-Clabo left-right tackle tandem won't make the Dolphins tackle situation secure. GM Jeff Ireland can't do everything in one offseason, but he'll have to enter the 2014 offseason, assuming he's still running the show, looking for tackle as a high priority.

Yes, but now the Dolphins have a pass-rusher. They may not be able to run the ball or protect their franchise quarterback sufficiently, but they will have a good pass-rush. I guess you can't fix everything in one offseason, but protecting your franchise quarterback seems like something I would prioritize fairly high on the offseason to-do list.

9.I think I'm not saying Scott Pioli has a future in the prognostication business or anything, but he did forecast on NFL Network that the Ravens would take Matt Elam and Arthur Brown 1-2 in the draft. And, of course ...

Ah yes, speaking of Peter reporting on people in the business who he is closer to than others. Scott Pioli chose Matt Elam and Arthur Brown as the Ravens top two choices. It so happens they were mocked there by several other experts and they fit two needs the Ravens had. He gets credit for making these choices, but these guys were linked to the Ravens for much of the two weeks prior to the draft. Maybe Peter will work hard to talk up Pioli in order to get him another General Manager job he can fail at.

10.I think these are my non-football thoughts of the week:

c. As I tweeted Saturday night, that was an awful showing by the Nets, and I know more about darts than I do basketball. Stop passing the ball and shoot, Deron Williams.

This is another case of Peter admitting he has no idea what he is talking about when discussing the NBA, yet he still wants us to take his opinion on the NBA seriously.

f. Not a big fan of amateur doctoring, but when Derrick Rose is cleared to play March 8 and here it is, 60 days later, and he says he's still not ready, what is that all about? I know an ACL is serious surgery, but unless there's been a setback, how is a guy not ready to do something after 51 weeks of rehab and training?

What's weird is that if Jay Cutler was in this same situation I have a feeling the Chicago and national media would absolutely roast him. I understand why Rose doesn't believe he is ready to come back, but I feel like the usual amateur doctoring isn't being used to criticize Rose's long rehab process even though from all outward appearances he is ready to go.

i. Hey, Lisa Swenson! Congrats on your 100th career hit for the Newark (N.J.) Academy softball team! You were fun to coach. Good luck in this great game, and in life.

Hey, Peter King. You could convey this message in a more personal fashion using Facebook, Twitter, text messaging, Linkedin, or through various other forms of technology. Why go with the more public and impersonal option?

k. Beernerdness: Had the Rahr and Sons Blonde Lager the other night while in Dallas. Very nice, lighter malty beer from Fort Worth. Could have had seven -- that's how drinkable it is. Stopped at three. Mature for once.

You are never supposed to stop on an odd number. Always drink an even number of beers, that's my rule. If you drink two, see if you can drink a third and then of course you have to drink a fourth.

The Adieu Haiku

Sanchez press briefing.
Why that thin green hair band, Mark?
Anyone ask that?

Yes, Peter they did.
Many people commented.
Everyone asked that.