It is 3:00 pm EST right now on Friday and I am setting out to start to do a mock draft when the draft starts in 24 hours. I hate mock drafts because they are pretty much all just guessing at what is going to happen, but there have been some good discussions on here about the draft, so I would like to go ahead and get a mock out there so everyone can make fun of my choices. As always, I have no sources nor do I know anything at all about what trades are going to be made, but I am going to choose who I believe each team will choose in the draft, regardless of whether I think they need that player or not or whether I like that player for that team. Feel free to make fun of me when I get every pick wrong...and I will try to update it for when any trades are made or anything of substance happens before I post it. After I post it, I am sure it is going to look like crap due to trades and things like that (or just completely wrong picks), so I will try to update as much as I can in parenthesis.
1. Detroit: Matt Stafford, QB
Do I agree with this pick? Not particularly, simply because I am not a fan of drafting quarterbacks and paying them a ton of money to sit the bench for a year or two, especially in Detroit's situation where they have a lot of other holes. If they liked Stafford and had only a couple of holes to fill, I would say take him, with no qualms about it. I just think they have other holes to fill, but I guess that is what the other 1st round pick is for.
(6 years $72 million. $40 million guaranteed...Edward has me almost convinced Mario Williams and other high draft choices are worth it if they are good choices, but I still may need a little convincing when I see numbers like this.)
2. St. Louis: Jason Smith, T
It would not shock me at all if the Rams drafted a quarterback in this spot or even tried to reach for a defensive tackle like Raji. Knowing Spags from the Giants, he believes in having a strong front four so DT could be a possibility but I don't think they draft Sanchez when they think they can get a QB next year and any DT here would a semi-reach for them. They drafted Orlando Pace years ago and that worked out for them. I think Smith gets the pick over Eugene Monroe.
3. Kansas City: Aaron Curry, LB
I did not want to put Aaron Curry in here but I just don't think he seems like a Pioli linebacker, assuming he chose his type of LB's in New England, but I just think this makes too much sense. I think if KC doesn't trade out of this spot, it makes a little bit too much sense at this point due to him being the best defensive player in the draft and KC needing more LB's for the 3-4 defense.
4. Seattle: Michael Crabtree, WR
I think Seattle would be a great spot for Mark Sanchez but I also think the Seahawks will give their QB search a break for another year and hope Hasselbeck is healthy enough to play this year. Teams tend to react to pain and the pain of having no receivers last year I think is still too great, as compared to the pain of having Seneca Wallace as the backup QB...plus Crabtree is a bad ass receiver.
5. Cleveland: B.J. Raji, DT
I know some people think it will be Orakpo in this spot because he is similar to Vernon Gholston from last year and I think it will be Raji because Mangini got burnt with Gholston last year. I see him picking up Raji here because the DT is vitally important to a 3-4 defense and they may as well pick the best one in the draft...especially considering he is not a pothead after all. Sure the Browns already have Corey Williams and Shaun Rogers early in their contracts, and that is an incredibly important point and if the Browns don't draft Raji that would be why, but I still believe Raji is the pick here.
6. Cincinnati: Eugene Monroe, T
Carson Palmer has had some health concerns in the past and the Bengals want to make sure that doesn't continue with a blindside hit to his head or any other important body part. The Bengals at least have a fighting chance to win games with him playing and Monroe is arguably considered the best tackle in the draft. If Crabtree falls here, I can see them selecting him as well.
7. Oakland: Darrius Heyward-Bey, WR
Let's see, he is overrated and has generally underperformed his entire career. The perfect pick for the Raiders, he has enough question marks and potential to justify this pick for them. I have seen Maclin get picked here, but I think if the Raiders are going against the grain they may pick an offensive lineman in this spot, of course that is assuming Tom Cable is really running the team and not Al Davis.
8. Jacksonville: Andre Smith, T
I don't see a reason to draft a QB here, I really think the Jags may trade back, and WR is also another position I don't see them taking given their past problems with 1st round choices. I think they make the "safe" choice here and go with Andre Smith who will help both Garrard stay upright and the running game be effective.
9. Green Bay: Malcolm Jenkins, CB/FS
It's going to be defensive pick for the Packers move over to the 3-4 and I know there is a lot of talk about the Packers going with a rushing LB and Tyson Jackson makes sense here...but he makes too much sense to me...and yes that makes NO sense I know. Al Harris and Charles Woodson are not getting any younger and I think Jenkins makes sense for the Packers and they will address the need for a pass rusher in the 2nd round.
10. San Francisco: Brian Orakpo, LB/DE
I don't believe the 49ers go with a QB here, simply because I think they were satisfied with Shaun Hill's performance at the end of last year. They could take Michael Oher but I think the need for a defensive playmaker makes Orakpo the choice.
11. Buffalo Bills: Michael Oher, T
They traded the semi-overrated Jason Peters and are able to replace him here with a guy who is sort of an enigma to me personally. He was supposed to be the top Tackle in the draft a year ago and then he started slipping for some reason. I don't really know exactly what happened. I think he is a great pick here.
12. Denver Broncos: Tyson Jackson, DE/LB
I think the Broncos leap all over Jackson at this point. Supposedly he is not going to fall this far but I think he will fall far enough that he will end up going to Denver. He is what the Denver defense really needs and that is a pass rushing defensive player who can get to the QB.
13. Washington: Mark Sanchez, QB
The Redskins seems absolutely hell bent on giving up on Jason Campbell as soon as possible and Sanchez falling this far will allow them the opportunity to not take care of the real problem with the defense, which is a lack of a pass rush.
14. New Orleans: Brian Cushing, OLB
I think the Saints really want Malcolm Jenkins in this spot but with him being gone, Greg Williams is going to try and upgrade the LB position after focusing (well, not him personally) on the DL last year with Sedrick Ellis. I don't think the Saints go RB because they have Bush and Thomas and I don't think they focus on that position when they need help defensively. The offense is going to score but the defense needs guys to stop the other team.
15. Houston: Clay Matthews, OLB
I have read that the Texans may take Clay Matthews at this pick and I personally would take Knowshon Moreno but in looking at the Texans, I would probably take Matthews as well, though it would really not shock me to see them take a corner here. Specifically Alphonso Smith.
16. San Diego: Eben Britton, T
I want to say they are going to take Knowshon Moreno and I would have said that a few months ago but now they have resigned LT and franchised Sproles I don't see that happening. They need to upgrade the T position and I think Britton is the guy here but I also could see them going with Aaron Maybin with Merriman up as a FA next year. With the preponderance of DE/LB's in this draft, they are going to be hoping one falls to them in the second round.
17. New York Jets: Knowshon Moreno, QB
Seriously this makes a lot of sense to me. I don't see them going with a QB and just letting the Little 3 (Clemens, Ratliff, Ainge) fight it out. Assuming the Jets are serious about getting a good team together they will make sure they have a running game after Thomas Jones is gone. If Josh Freeman doesn't go here or go to Tampa Bay, I can see him falling a whole lot in the draft.
18. Denver: Rey Maualuga, LB
This makes too much sense for it to not happen. Denver is not going offense here and I have them with Tyson Jackson picked earlier, so I see Rey Maualuga as the new face and spirit of the Denver defense. I don't see how they don't choose him if he is available.
19. Tampa Bay: Aaron Maybin, LB/DE
I could see the Bucs choosing Michael Johnson at this spot but I think they take a chance on Maybin. Actually, they will probably draft Josh Freeman if the Gruden philosophy of having 6 QB's on the roster holds up.
20. Detroit: William Beatty, T
I am going to scream if the Lions choose Darius Butler or any other position after choosing Stafford first. They have to protect him somehow and taking the best available tackle on the board would do that.
21. Philadelphia: Everette Brown, DE/LB
I would like to see the Eagles take LeSean McCoy here but Andy Reid loves drafting linemen in the draft and Everette Brown could end up being a steal at this spot.
22. Minnesota: Jeremy Maclin, WR
Given the Vikings struggles in the past with selecting wide receivers, I would expect them to stay away from one here normally but they want to give either Tavaris Jackson or Sage Rosenfels a fighting chance on offense, so they will go with a guy who take the ball to the house everytime he touches the ball. He also happens to be a guy I am not a huge fan of him as a complete wide receiver...though he is going to be a real asset on kick and punt returns.
23. New England: Larry English, DE/LB
I don't know why but this pick screams Larry English to me. He seems like the type of player the Patriots will draft...not to mention he plays a position that is one of their biggest needs. Tedy Bruschi is getting up there in the years and English seems to have a lot of the intangibles the Patriots look for.
24. Atlanta: Peria Jerry, DT
They have a great need at LB, but this draft is pretty full of guys who can play LB, while it is harder to find a run stopper like Jerry. Mike Smith coached Henderson and Stroud in Jacksonville, so he knows the value of these types of guys.
25. Miami: Darius Butler, CB
I think Parcells recognizes that Hakeem Nicks may have been a little overweight and I don't think he wants guys who have problems like that on his team, especially at WR, where a player being a little overweight is a major red flag. I think he takes Darius Butler here because the Dolphins have few other quality CB's and in a division with the Patriots, you need this position to be solid very badly.
26. Baltimore: Vontae Davis, CB
The Ravens are old at this position and can afford to take on guys who may have some attitude/discipline problems when Ray Lewis and Ed Reed are there to hold them accountable. Could be a steal for the Ravens because no scout I have read a report on Davis' pro prospects has questioned his skill set.
27. Indianapolis: Hakeem Nicks, WR
Not that Indianapolis is thin at WR but they certainly seemed to run out of targets at certain points last year. Harrison is gone and Nicks will fit in perfectly as the 3rd receiver for Indy. I think a wild card at this position is an interior offensive lineman or Robert Ayers.
28. Buffalo: Brandon Pettigrew, TE
The Bills need a TE to take some of the heat off Lee Evans and T.O. This is the best TE in the draft and he can also block, which always helps out when the team's running back is Marshawn Lynch.
29. New York Giants: LeSean McCoy, RB
I think McCoy is the 2nd best running back in the draft and the Giants need to complement Brandon Jacobs with a running back and McCoy is the best option in this slot. I see McCoy leapfrogging Donald Brown and Beanie Wells because he is a more complete back than Brown in my opinion (though Brown has carried UConn the past couple of years) and Well has injury issues that will make the Giants pass on him.
30. Tennessee: Evander Hood, DT
The Titans need a replacement for Albert Haynesworth and they also need a cornerback. I think they know they can get a quality CB in the 2nd or 3rd round, while the quality DT's are not going to last that long.
31. Arizona Cardinals: Robert Ayers, DE/LB
I don't think I would be shocked if the Cardinals went with a guard like Duke Robinson or Max Unger here but they need a guy who can rush the passer after losing Antonio Smith more than they need a running back or a guard right now. Ayers is good of a value and it is worth passing up a RB or G at this point.
32. Pittsburgh Steelers: Alex Mack, C
As much as the Steelers need a cornerback at this point, I think they still know they want to run the ball and make sure Roethlisberger is standing upright at the end of the game. The Center position is the weak link in the O-Line and I think they address it very successfully with Mack. I do think the Steelers could take Unger or a corner like Alphonso Smith if Mack is gone but I don't think he will be.
Ok, that is it. If any big trades go down that affect the first round I will try to update it...but now is the time for everyone to tell me how stupid I am, especially if I accidentally left off a big time prospect from the 1st round. After looking back at this, I feel pretty confident, but there are some picks I can be talked out of.
18 comments:
Ben--
Been looking forward to this. I like your picks and agree with most of your reasoning. But let's face it--Sanchez is going top 5. Probably to the Rams. But regardless, someone will waste a top 5 pick on him because of groupthink and anecdotal bullshit that has nothing to do with the fact that as a football player, he's just not very good.
Thanks, I have to say the initial mock draft is kind of hard. I think if I had done a couple of them it would have gotten easier. I still think I will be lucky to get half of my picks right. I don't think it would take a lot to convince me Sanchez is going to Seattle and Crabtree is going to fall to San Fran and screw it all up for me. I looked back at the mock and now think either Pitt or Tenn will take Alphonso Smith but I am not going to change it now.
I actually don't hate Matt Stafford as a pro prospect, I just had problems with him being #1 and those problems are over now obviously, there is nothing can be done. I really just don't like Mark Sanchez as a QB in the NFL, I really don't. He did tear up Penn State in the Rose Bowl, which I give him credit for, but I just was not really impressed with his performance as the year went by.
If I am wrong, I will look like an ass, but I don't think I am wrong.
Ben--
I'm with you on both of those.
Frankly, I think Stafford's going to be a SOLID QB, but sub-Palmer...which is not a bad thing to be. I gotta be honest though--if the Lions are going to be a good franchise they need a franchise QB and Stafford is the only one...and might be the only one even if they wait till next year.
I am VERY low on Sanchez. I think he can throw pretty well but I have never seen him do anything that knocked me off my feet--and that was in the best possible situation for a QB in college football (excepting places like Mizzou and TTech of course)
Stafford also played in the SEC which is a much more difficult conference on a week to week basis as compared to the PAC-10. Not that this is the most important point in the world but we know Stafford played tough competition weekly, while Sanchez did play Washington and Washington State and the big rivalry game is against UCLA. I don't think it will make Stafford a better QB but gives us a better look at what he could do in the pros. Though, every time I look at Stafford his face looks really fat to me, but I don't know why.
I have watched Sanchez play pretty several times this year and I am with you, I was never impressed with him and it always seemed to me that the offense succeeded but not because of Sanchez. I may be wrong about him but he was in a good situation for him to put up numbers...and he sort of did that.
My only comment is that it is 12:50 and the draft hasn't started. This is just insane. There is no reason the draft shouldn't start at noon Eastern time. Something like 2/3 of the population lives east of the Mississippi, and westies are used to breakfasting with football. To me this is just a way to hurt the draft, because by having it start so late people actually have to do things, and not sit around and wait/watch. People tend to have actual lives at night on a Saturday, so even though they might want to watch, they are going to end up following it on their cell phone, twitter, email, and not on tv, where the money is for the NFL and it's partners. Just stupid, stupid, stupid.
Speaking of stupid...how about the Jets trading their 1st and 2nd plus three guys (who may/may not have value) for Sanchez? Poor Jets fans, I really hope this doesn't blow up on them.
For Jets fans everywhere....AAAAAAARRRRRGGGHHHH!!
This draft has been pretty interesting so far, I tried to stay away from copying the "experts" draft but it looks like I would have been better off doing that, if I wanted to be right at least.
I don't understand the Broncos drafting Moreno so high, they really, really needed to go defense with their 2 1st round picks. He is a great player though, so they will have a good one.
I guess Detroit decided they don't give a crap whether Stafford/Culpepper has a good offensive line for this upcoming year. Picking a TE seems like a luxury pick to me. No need to focus on either d-line or o-line, at least they will have a good tight end who can catch the ball after the QB gets hit hard from the left side. I think they should have gone LT there.
I hate to say it, but I called that pick... not over Crabtree though...
Then the Raiders "nabbed" a guy who was a 5th round pick at best in the second round. They are morons. I actually feel bad for their fan base.
I don't understand why the Patriots traded out of a potential Vontae Davis pick so they could grab Patrick Chung. granted Chung will probably play well in their system but they could have used a blue chipper like Davis in the secondary.
I try not to question the Patriots too much because they seem to know what they are doing, but I was wondering that as well. I thought Davis would have worked out really well there and really Chung I think was a bit of a reach that early in the second round like that. I think they could have gotten him with their other 2nd round picks.
I think overall NE did a great job in the draft for the 1st day, I really like Brace and I guess they made up for missing on Davis with Butler, but I would have taken Butler in that spot and Chung later...maybe they knew something we did not know though.
yeah I generally don't question them much (I was not a big fan of them taking Ty Warren or Logan Mankins, for instance) because they seem to know exactly what they're looking for in the draft each year. I'm also guessing they didn't want to spend the cap space on a first rounder this year.
either way their only real holes were on defense and they picked up three solid guys today so I can't complain too much.
Yeah, they did very well today. The Patriots are going to be around for a long, long time so the world had better get used to it. Butler and Brace were a good enough haul for them. I really think 2nd round picks are a lot better than 1st round picks sometimes.
I am not really that upset the Panthers traded their 1st next year for Everette Brown. Plus they got a 4th round pick this year, which they really need.
WAKE UP!! DAY TWO
IS ON!! What the hell are the Raiders doing? Getting more picks for Al to screw up, or is he still in his coffin today, so someone with a clue will be making them?
Of course I think that the Broncos aren't doing much better, and teh Chiefs and Chargers....eh. So the entire AFC West pretty much sucks at this draft thing.
I never watch the coverage of Day 2 on ESPN, they are still talking about everything that has happened in Day 1 and it pretty much bores me. I do get excited about the Day 2 picks though. I bet Al Davis will draft a player who has never played football before or something.
I can't believe who the Raiders drafted yesterday, I don't even think they have a plan at all. The Broncos have made some odd choices as well, it is interesting to see the AFC West having such a tough time.
I wish I had the "insider" part of ESPN to see the full grades for every team from Kiper...oh wait, I'm pretty sure I can guess how he grades teams, he gives high marks for teams that drafted who Kiper says they should have in his mock draft, and low grades to teams who didn't draft who he said they should have.
Lions get an F-. In fact, they should just be moved to NFL Europe. Who drafts a TE in the 1st round when you have huge holes to fill elsewhere? And what about drafting a safety in the 2nd round when two top LB's were right there, and your team needs a LB!! Oh and Stafford wont have to worry, the Lions got him a OT in the 7th round, perfect!
If I remember correctly, last year Kiper gave every team between an A or a C...that may have been two years ago or something.
Pettigrew is a great TE so maybe he will be able to be on the left side and help either Backus or Cherilus block defensive ends. I don't want to depress you too much but I have to say you make some good points. I guess they thought safety was a greater need than LB. It may turn out fine but I certainly would have drafted a T at some point earlier.
Post a Comment