Thursday, September 3, 2009

7 comments Peter King Prediction Day

I have horrific news for everyone. I will be skipping town for the next couple of days, so I won't be back on Monday to do the MMQB Review. Please hold your tears in as much as possible, because I will be back on Tuesday and plan on covering it then. There may be something up Monday if Fred puts something up or I get motivated before I leave to schedule something.

I had barely gotten finished with TMQ when I noticed that Peter King had his predictions up, which were interesting in my opinion, so I feel the need to comment on them today. I think Peter King Prediction Day should be a holiday, so much so I am capitalizing all the letters to give it importance.

I want to say one other thing that is completely and utterly off topic though. Bill Simmons has been railing the T-Wolves GM for the Rubio situation and I have to agree with him. The Wolves needed to make sure Rubio was going to play in America before drafting him and then drafting Flynn right after him pretty much ensured there was going to be problems between the Wolves and Rubio's camp. I still don't think Bill should be a GM but I think even he could have done a better job than David Kahn is doing, at least here in the beginning. I know the Wolves still have the rights to Rubio and it may pay off in a few years but right now it doesn't look like Kahn knows what he is doing.

Now that is done with, let's get to Peter King's MMQB-Tuesday.

This is the thought that went through my mind near the end of the first quarter Monday night at Reliant Stadium, after seeing Brett Favre move around and throw enough to think he's still some semblance of himself,

"Damn, that man has a tight ass. Deanna Favre is a lucky woman!"

Was that it? Before Peter starts slobbering all over the Vikings and Brett Favre, let's remember it is a preseason game and there has never been a question about whether Brett Favre can look like his old self for short periods of time. The question is whether he can look like Brett Favre for an entire game or in early November.

Commence slobbering...

It's possible that I'm witnessing the third-best team in the NFC North.

It's possible you are 25% correct. There are four teams and four options for them to place in the division.


Peter must have just gotten distracted when he saw a shot of Brett Favre's ass on television.

As far as division kingpins go, most everyone agrees the NFC East is king heading into the 2009 season.

Oh course everyone agrees to this. It's obvious based on the fact there is no proof this is true other than Peter King just said this is what everyone thinks. It was one of two divisions that put two teams in the playoffs from the NFC last year...but no one agrees the NFC South can even be considered king.

Everyone also agrees that I am the greatest blogger in the history of the universe. Saying it makes it true.

But I think as the season dawns, Chicago-Minnesota-Green Bay is better than New York-Philadelphia-Dallas.

What a scandalous statement! I love it when sportswriters come out with bold predictions like this based on teams improving on paper and on watching preseason games.

Have the Minnesota Vikings improved? That's what I really wonder? What did they add that would make me think so? Brett Favre? Nope, that doesn't convince me. It's not that I don't think the Vikings got better but I just think Peter's opinion is wrong when he says the NFC North is better than the NFC East.

I'd expect Brett Favre to get a league fine for his crackback block on Houston safety Eugene Wilson on Monday night.

Peter must be talking about the illegal and cheap block that Brett Favre threw at Eugene Wilson's knee that knocked him out of the game.

I hope Peter has an update on how Eugene Wilson is...

More significantly, he's going to feel very sore because he cracked back on Wilson by throwing his midsection into a sprinting Wilson's knee, which will certainly exacerbate his sore rib or ribs.

More significantly than losing money or Eugene Wilson's health, let's just make sure that Brett Favre didn't hurt his fake rib injury throwing an illegal block and attempting to injure Eugene Wilson. That's the more important thing for the Vikings and Favre. I just hope to God Brett Favre didn't injure himself throwing a cheap shot, that would just be the worst thing to happen to the NFL since..........well, ever.

Maybe if Favre was so worried about his fake rib injury he shouldn't just go falling into other player's knees when he gets the opportunity. Of course, he just plays the game like a child...a dirty, fake rib injury complaining child.

How dare Eugene Wilson let his knee get in the way of Brett Favre's flying body! I am glad Peter found out that Brett Favre was ok. How dare Eugene Wilson's knee get in the way of Brett Favre's gritty fake rib injury.

"It doesn't feel great,'' Favre said of his midsection, "but I think I'll be fine. I don't know what good it would do to get an X-ray. Say it shows a crack. There's nothing you can do about it anyway. But I'm sure that block didn't help it much.''


Does either Peter or Brett give a shit Wilson limped off the field? That would be a big "hell no," they are concerned Brett may have hurt his fake rib injury.

It turns out after limping off the field, Wilson appears to be fine with a "knee injury." Not that Peter or Favre cared.

From Harvey Greene, senior vice president/media relations, Miami Dolphins: "No denying the Bears-Broncos game was intense, but it certainly wasn't the preseason game with the biggest regular season feel about it. I can take you back to a sold-out Yale Bowl on Aug. 17, 1969, in the first-ever battle between the Jets and the Giants.

Peter: Great point, Harvey. I was 12 then, living in Connecticut, and vaguely remember watching the game on TV. Don't have a great memory of the game, but you've just given me one.

How can Harvey expect Peter to remember this game when he was 12? Peter only remembers anything about Major League Baseball from when he was in his 20's or out of college. That is the time span Peter gave when he was defending why he called Derek Jeter the best player he has ever seen play baseball (which is still such a dumb statement, I can't get over it) a few weeks ago.

Obviously if Peter doesn't count the first 18-20 years of his life, he won't remember a football game when he was 12.

From Scott of Toledo: "I find it hilarious that so many Broncos fans are calling Jay Cutler a crybaby because he demanded a trade that basically let him know he was not wanted, especially given the fact that the player Broncos fans hold most dear -- John Elway -- whined and cried his way out of being drafted by the Colts. Karma, meet Broncos fans. Broncos fans, this is Karma.''

Peter: The Broncos never let Cutler know he was not wanted. Cutler found out Josh McDaniels inquired about dealing for his 2008 quarterback in New England, Matt Cassel, and then went on a wildcat strike of the team. Once Cassel was out of the picture, the Broncos had no intention of trading Cutler. Might they have traded him at some point in the future? Maybe, but probably not.

The Colts never let John Elway know he was not wanted either. They drafted him, he refused to play for them, then threatened to play baseball instead, and subsequently forced a trade to the yes Peter, this was karma for the Broncos.

Which situation is worse? A player finding out he may be traded/replaced and acting like a baby, not speaking to management or the coaching staff, and subsequently forcing a trade?

Or a player being drafted by a team he doesn't want to play for, threatening to play another sport instead of playing for the team who drafted him and then forcing a trade?

That's a tough one, and I have to say it is a draw, but in both cases neither the Broncos or Colts said they didn't want the quarterbacks involved. I am with Scott from Toledo on this.

Robert Brown of Austin, Texas: "As a Cowboys season ticket holder, I have to agree with you on the Cowboys video board. The interesting thing is that the only 'beautiful sight lines' in the stadium are of the video board. That's why they don't want to move it. The seats are so far away from the field that you almost have to watch the video board. When you visit the stadium, make sure to trek to the upper deck. Just bring a Sherpa, three days of supplies, and give yourself a couple of days to spend at the altitude acclimation points. Without a doubt, the new Cowboys Stadium is the worst stadium I have ever been in, and I grew up near Philadelphia going to the Vet.''

Maybe we are being a little dramatic about this, no? I do have to say, me being critical of Jerry Jones like I am, he is probably more focused on making it all look really pretty and not necessarily worrying about the fans seeing the action on the field, which is ironic since this year there may be more to watch on the field when the Cowboys play then there has been in a couple years.

Paul Phillips of Cape Elizabeth, Maine: "Has any team lost four potential Hall of Famers from one year to the next? The Patriots no longer have Tedy Bruschi (retired), Rodney Harrison (retired), Junior Seau (unsigned) and Mike Vrabel (traded).

Four potential Hall of Famers? If this question wasn't about the Patriots and Tedy Bruschi, Peter probably would have ignored it based on the inherent ignorance of the question. I liked having Mike Vrabel on my fantasy team at one point, but he is not a future Hall of Famer except in Paul's little pea brain. Come to think of it Seau is a Hall of Fame player and I am not sure the other three are.

Peter: First, and not to quibble, the words "potential Hall of Famer'' might be the most overused four words in our football vocabulary.

No, do quibble. This was not a smart statement.

That sound you hear is Peter and I dancing around a raging campfire together singing Kumbaya because we both agree "potential Hall of Famer" has jumped the shark has a term when used to describe a retiring player.

What if I gave you this argument: Bill Walsh wanted to take Phil Simms with his first pick in the 1979 draft, but Simms was already gone, and Walsh waited 'til round three to take another quarterback he liked, Joe Montana. Simms had a very good pro career. What if Simms had gone to the 49ers? I have no doubt he'd have won multiple Super Bowls too. But should we put him in the Hall because maybe he played for a team that didn't win as much as San Francisco?

That sound you hear is me pushing Peter into the raging campfire because I don't want anyone to know that he and I have agreed on two issues in one mailbag. I wish Peter could give a call to some baseball writers and give them this example before they vote for postseason awards.

Now onto Peter's NFL predictions.

AFC East complaints:

I still like the Patriots as much as the next guy does but for some reason I just feel like 13-3 is a bit too good for them this year. I can see them winning the division this year but I feel like 13-3 may be overstating it by a bit. Also, I went on record a few weeks ago and put Buffalo in the playoffs, which I may back off on a little bit here, but I think they are going to have a better record than 6-10. If Marshawn Lynch plays well when he returns they should have a pretty potent offense, which I think gets them 8-8 at a minimum. Miami is going to take a step back and I have honestly have no clue how the Jets will do, but I know Mark Sanchez will be praised heavily for whatever he does.

AFC West complaints:

Kansas City at 8-8? I just don't see that happening at all. I would bet Peter is basing this on his BFFs Pioli and Cassel being there this year but I don't see the team making to .500 this year. They may be second in the division only because someone has to be. I think Denver is going to be bad and I know the Raiders are going to be bad.

AFC North complaints:

Just looking at it, I don't really have too many. I will say it wouldn't shock me if Baltimore won that division this year over Pittsburgh but I see Cincinnati partially bouncing back this year to near .500 and I can see Cleveland winning 4 football games. I was down on Baltimore last year and I learned my lesson for this year. I will not underrate them so I think they win this division.

AFC South complaints:

I would put Houston at 9-7 and Indianapolis at 10-6. I think Indy will have some growing pains this year with the new coaching staff and some of the other offensive adjustments that are being made along the offensive line and on defense but I don't know if the Texans have a good enough defense to win the division quite yet. I do see Tennessee having an off year because the quarterback is Kerry Collins.

AFC Playoffs complaints:

I would put Pittsburgh and New England in the AFC Championship game because I don't think San Diego will be able to beat Pittsburgh, even at home. I have New England winning that game.

NFC East complaints:

For a guy who like the Eagles so much in his MMQB, he sure has them with a poor record. I can't imagine losing Stewart Bradley made that much of a difference in their record. I actually like the records Peter has in this division, though depending on the day you ask me, I may flip Dallas and Philadelphia for the 2nd and 3rd spots. I really like the Cowboys this year and they may actually win a playoff game this year. I can just envision Jim Zorn being gone from Washington after this year and Mike Shanahan taking the team over and moving up in the draft to take Colt for this to happen Washington will have to have a bad year and Zorn will get fired, both of which will happen.

NFC West complaints:

Seattle is probably going to have a better record than 9-7. I can see Arizona not making the playoffs this year, they got hot at the right time last year, but I don't think the defense is good enough to win this division again. I think San Francisco will be a 7-9 team this year, so they will be better than Peter thinks but there is no way the Rams win 5 games in my mind. He is over ranking them a bit.

NFC North complaints:

I think Green Bay will go 11-5, Minnesota will go 11-5, and Chicago will go 9-7. It's not that I don't like Chicago or Jay Cutler, but until that defense proves to me it will bounce back I think Minnesota and Green Bay are going to be a better team. I also realize Green Bay's defense stunk last year but I really believe they will have a good year with Dom Capers running the show and they are only a year removed from almost going to the Super Bowl so I can see their defense bouncing back. Detroit is about where I think they will be.

NFC South complaints:

We know the Panthers won't win the division since it seems no team can win this division twice in a row. I actually think the Saints are going to win the division at 11-5, with Atlanta at 10-6, Carolina at 8-8 and the Bucs could very well go 6-10. I think the Saints improved their defense enough in the offseason to allow the offense to not have to outscore every other team. Atlanta is going to have a good year but I don't know if they are going to have the same amount of success in their record they had last year but they should make the playoffs again.

NFC Playoffs complaints:

I don't see Chicago making the playoffs first of all. Peter has them in the Super Bowl, which I think is jumping on the Cutler bandwagon a little bit too much. If I had faith in the Bears defense I could maybe see this happening, but I don't have faith in the defense nor complete faith in the Bear offensive line. I think Green Bay and the New York Giants are going to meet (again) in the NFC Championship Game with the Giants winning that game. Then we will get a rematch of the Super Bowl two years ago between the Giants and the Patriots.

Not shockingly, Peter picked the Patriots to win the Super Bowl.

I was very wrong with my NFL picks last year so I probably will look back on this and look like a dumbass, but I am willing to bet I am more accurate than Peter King is.

Everyone who is in the Yahoo College Pick 'Em league, don't forget to make your picks for this week.


RuleBook said...

As far as division kingpins go, most everyone agrees the NFC East is king heading into the 2009 season.

I will say, though I have no evidence, it does seem to me from all the things I've read that this is the overwhelming concensus. I think This stems from the fact that not only have they had 2 consecutive season where every team in the division had a .500+ record, but they have had sent 5 of the last 6 wildcard teams (PHI in 2008, WAS+NYG in 2007, DAL+NYG in 2006).

I was having this discussion this morning with a coworker who is a Saints fan. I said that you could make an argument that the NFC South is the best division, but I can't figure out who in their right mind could honestly say the NFC North top 3 are better collectively than the NFC East top 3 and the NFC South top 3.

However, I will say that the NFC South will not be the best division by record for two reasons:

(1) They play the NFC East (which will likely lead to more NFC losses for both divisions). On the other hand, the NFC North plays the NFC West, which should be relatively easy.

(2) They play the AFC East this year (I believe), which means they have overall a drastically more difficult schedule. On the other hand, the NFC East plays the AFC West, which is even worse this year than it was last year for the NFC South.

Therefore, I think the NFC south will take a step back record-wise, as their schedule is insanely tough. Since the Lions automatically disqualify the NFC north, the NFC East will likely have the most combined wins this season.

Though I doubt most media people actually put this much thought into this, that is why I would argue that the NFC East will be the best division this season record-wise. Whether they actually are better is another debate.

Bengoodfella said...

Let me start off by saying I do not think the NFC South is the strongest division in football. I didn't mean to infer I thought so. I think the NFC East probably is the strongest division, I probably shouldn't have hit Peter so hard on that one.

I think for all the reasons you describe Peter was probably right. I just thought Peter said that so he could be the contrarian who ended up being right when he said the NFC North was the strongest division.

I don't think the NFC South is that strong. Tampa Bay shouldn't have a great year, Carolina's defense is not good enough to win too many games for them and the offense is not strong enough, I have questions about the Falcons though I think they may be the best team in the South, and I think the Saints will win the division because they have a strong offense and I think the defense will improve just enough. Overall, I don't think the division is that strong though...they have more to prove to me.

You are also correct about the South having to play two of the toughest divisions and I think that will hurt them like you do. I am afraid both Easts (NFC and AFC) will knock the South down a bit.

I am not quite as high on the NFC North this year, though I probably have them with more wins than the East, which I should fix. I am not buying the Bears as much as everyone else is.

So basically you are right, it may be the consensus that the NFC East is the strongest division but I think Peter agrees and he is just trying to be a contrarian. Either way, I know all the predictions are going to end up wrong one way or another.

AJ said...

What are you guys talking about...the AFC East is the best division...NO ONE DENIES THIS!

It has the Bawton Patriots in it, how can you not say this is the best?


Bengoodfella said...

I can see the Patriots going 12-4 at best but not necessarily going 13-3...of course I said last year they would go 15-1 or something to that effect.

I know I may get jumped for saying this, but I would like to see what the defense can do this year. I am not sure what I see in the Patriots defense that causes me to think it may struggle, and I do know Belichick is still the head coach, but something makes me wary about the defense.

I don't think the Bears are making the Super Bowl. The Cutler Mania has reached epic proportions right now. They are a good team, but Super Bowl winning, I am not sure of that. I don't even know if Bears fans think they can make the Super Bowl.

Martin said...

I prefer the AFC South to the NFC East myself. I think that the Redskins and Cowboys are going to be worse then most people figure, and are in no way any better then the Texans and Jaguars. The Colts and Titans are better then the Giants/Eagles combo that the NFC Eaast offers. I think this consensus is another instance not of East Coast Bias, but "Too Damn Lazy to Bother Studying Teams Outside the North East Area of the Country" bias.

The Girl said...

I think the Patriots go 12-4 only if they really underperform. I actually agree(!) with PK that 13-3 is pretty likely or even 14-2. Of course, I am a total homer so take that with a grain of salt. I will admit that the defense is pretty much a question mark, but the offense...oh, the offense. Playing 6 games against the rest of the AFC East is pretty huge and I think they run the table there. It is appropriate to add a "NO ONE DENIES THIS!"

Also, somewhat off-topic, although I suppose it relates to PK's Jeter love- A quick summary of the linked WSJ article would be: Jeter should be MVP based on intangibles and nostalgia. (Commence banging head against wall).

Bengoodfella said...

I kind of like the AFC South also, of course I am sort of predicting the Texans to make the playoffs, so I could be insane.

It's ok to be a Patriots homer, if that defense comes through then 14-2 could be realistic. I have to be honest, they have the offense to do it. I just don't want to go overboard and pick them to have a great year. We'll see though. It wouldn't shock me if they went perfect, even though I did pick 12-4.

Nice article, I try not to read too much stuff like that or my head will hurt too much.