Today everyone is making New Year's resolutions and trying to stick to them. I have no such resolutions. Ross Tucker, who is one of my favorite columnists to make fun of even though he is an Ivy League educated person, has Christmas/New Year's wishes for the NFL teams that aren't doing so well this year. He is trying to provide a little bit of hope for a bunch of teams that don't feel like they have that much hope right now. I will have none of this. When I read this article the first two times I thought it may have been tongue-in-cheek but after reading it again, I don't think it is. Let's have some fun and mess with what wishes Ross Tucker has for some NFL loser teams. He calls it positivity, so I will inject some (what I call) realism in here and nitpick him a bit.
The holiday season is all about giving, so this week's column gives a little hope to the fans of teams that no longer have playoff dreams dancing in their heads.
In all seriousness, nearly every single NFL team can go from the lottery to the playoffs in the matter of one year with smart free agent acquisitions, good drafting, good luck, and by getting some players who may have been injured the year before back playing at full strength. So I am not saying these teams Ross Tucker lists won't ever contend next year, I am criticizing Ross Tucker's reasoning for why some of these teams will bounce back. I don't want anyone to think I am saying ALL these teams can't make the playoffs next year.
Atlanta Falcons -- This year's setback can be traced to injuries and a tough schedule, both of which will likely improve next season.
Feel better Falcons fans! Your team is merely average, but because you will play an average schedule next year that means they will have a chance to play other average teams. This means the Falcons will make the playoffs potentially. At least that how Ross Tucker wants you to feel. He doesn't think your team will get better, he just thinks your schedule will get easier, thereby I am sure this gives you hope. Then the Falcons will have a losing record the year after that when they have to play difficult teams again, thereby extending the streak of years when the Falcons haven't had a winning record for two straight years. I know this makes you feel better.
Ross Tucker is exactly right about injuries affecting the Falcon's season and one of the biggest reasons (at least in my mind) many teams have a hard time getting back to the playoffs on a yearly basis is because of luck, injuries and the fact the team didn't improve that much in the offseason as compared to some other teams. I find the Falcons to be a good example (the Falcons do have a young defense and I readily acknowledge it will take time for these guys to play well as a unit but let me generalize for a second, please):
Last year the Falcons were a B+ team. They had a high draft pick (because they had a year before that no other NFL team may ever have again in that their QB went to jail and their head coach literally quit his job before the season was over) and were able to draft a franchise quarterback in Matt Ryan. They had finished last in 2007 for these above reasons, and for the 2008 season (when they made the playoffs) they played the AFC West and the NFC Central during the season. If you recall, the NFC Central and the AFC West weren't very good divisions last year. So the Falcons being a B+ team were able to defeat these teams and secure a playoff spot. The Falcons went 7-1 against the AFC West and NFC Central and they also played the Rams who were terrible which puts them at 8-1 against these teams. The Falcons went 11-5 overall, which means they went 3-3 against teams in their division and lost to the Eagles (who made the playoffs), which put them at 3-4 against teams that weren't in the AFC West and NFC Central. I am not saying the Atlanta Falcons weren't a good team last year, but they were a B+ team playing a C- schedule.
This year the Falcons were not able to improve enough (or at least didn't show it) to move up from being a B+ team (or they fell further down because of injuries or youth, whatever you want to think) and the Falcons had to play the NFC East (not easy) and the AFC East (also not easy), along with the Bears and 49ers. They were still a B+ team playing a B+ schedule, so factor in injuries (which they had plenty of) and bad luck overall and we are looking at a 8-7 team now. If it seems simple, it's because it is.
So Ross Tucker is saying, "don't worry Falcons fans your team is going to have an easier schedule next year and then break your heart again by missing the playoffs the right after that."
Buffalo Bills -- This is a tough one. I know and love Bills fans after spending a decent amount of my playing career in Western New York.
Ross Tucker played from 2001-2005 in the NFL. He played in Buffalo for 2003 and 2004. I guess he is right he spent most of his career playing in Western New York, but he was only there two years, it's not like he played a decade there and built a great bond with the city.
Your hope should stem from the fact that it is highly unlikely the string of injuries will continue.
Good news Bills fans! Your team will be better because your players will stop being injured. So next year the team can't use the injury excuse for why the team failed and will just have to focus on the fact the team appears to have no direction.! This is like telling a terminal cancer patient who has a migraine that everything will be better soon because you are giving them some Tylenol for the migraine. It doesn't really take care of the real problem.
You'll also have a new head coach and perhaps even a new quarterback to look forward to in 2010. If that doesn't generate hope, nothing will.
Your team is completely rebuilding...again. Doesn't that sound exciting Bills fans? I know it's hard for Ross Tucker to make Bills fans feel better at this point, but the fact the team is going through another rebuilding can't make them feel better. Especially when the front office hasn't had success picking a quarterback or a head coach lately.
Carolina Panthers -- As long as you have Steve Smith, Julius Peppers and those two running backs, you have a chance.
Unfortunately Julius Peppers is a free agent after this season. The Panthers had all 4 of those players this year for pretty much the entire season and the team didn't have a chance. Please elaborate more fully on why these four players are all the team needs to have a chance since it didn't work this year.
The quarterback situation has to get better.
I know I irritate some people with my smartassery and constant bitching, but is this really analysis of any type? It takes a person one game to watch this team and figure out that the quarterback is the problem. The fact the quarterback situation has to get better isn't really any type of silver lining. How and why does it have to get better? Is this just going to happen suddenly?
As for Peppers, who didn't sign his one-year contract until June, the situation can't possibly get more drawn out than it was last year.
I feel better now. There's "no way" things can be more drawn out than last year and Carolina just needs to find a quarterback, then all will be right in the world. It's like emotional medicine for my aching heart.
Chicago Bears -- The good news for Bears fans heading into next season is really twofold. For one, there is going to be some sort of major change within the coaching staff.
Good news Bears fans! You are getting a new coaching staff! Continuity within an organization sucks! Your team can rebuild with all those early draft picks you don't have for this upcoming year.
Other than that, the draft choices aren't really there, at least in the first round, so I guess you'll have to be satisfied knowing Johnny Knox was a steal in the fifth round.
I am pretty sure the Buccaneers have the Bears 2nd round pick as well. So even though your team has a smaller chance of drafting elite talent in the draft you Bears fans can hang your hat on the fact you drafted well last year in the 5th round.
Cleveland Browns -- This one is easy. There is plenty to be hopeful about in Cleveland now that Mike Holmgren has been hired as president. His first order of business will be deciding on a quarterback, given that neither Brady Quinn nor Derek Anderson appear to be the solution. He'll have plenty of ammo -- 11 draft choices -- with which to work heading into a draft that most NFL personnel people say will be one of the best in years.
I actually agree with this. I love it when teams are rebuilding with people who have a direction they want the team to go and that team has draft picks. I am not worried about Mangini if he sticks around. The players will stop bitching about Mangini once they start winning. Why? Because winning cures absolutely everything.
Kansas City Chiefs -- The best news for Chiefs fans is they have the right man to get this ship righted in Scott Pioli.
Yeah, because the 2009 draft class has done such a bang up job so far:
(1st round) Tyson Jackson - 34 tackles, 2 passes defensed (I know he is switching positions but I am just stating facts here).
(3rd round) Alex Magee - 8 tackles, 2 sacks.
(4th round) Donald Washington - 3 tackles.
(5th round) Colin Brown - ESPN says he is on the roster but I couldn't find him.
(6th round) Quinten Lawrence - 14 returns for 272 yards and 1 reception for 9 yards in 5 games.
(7th round) Javarris Williams - 3 rushes for -4 yards in 3 games.
(7th round) Jake O'Connell - 1 reception for 4 yards in 3 games.
(7th round) Ryan Succop - 22/26 on field goals and 24/24 on extra points.
So there you go Chiefs fans. The Chiefs didn't do horribly in the last couple of rounds but I don't know if this first draft is giving off genius vibes for me in regards to Pioli. Granted, the Chiefs did get their starting quarterback (Matt Cassel) and Mike Vrabel for a 2nd round pick, but I am still in wait-and-see mode on Pioli and Haley.
That is why you won't see Pioli make any knee-jerk moves to appease the media or re-ignite fan interest. Not going to happen.
Which is why the Chiefs traded their best quarterback from last year Tyler Thigpen. Screw you fan base, we don't need your interest in the team nor a backup that we can trust. We need Brodie Croyle.
Oakland Raiders -- I am surprised that I am even writing this, but for the first time in a long while there is reason for optimism in Oakland. Despite getting generally inept quarterback play and making a grave first round mistake in Darius Heyward-Bey, the Raiders are mentally and physically tough enough to beat any team in the NFL. They have shown that this season with quality wins over the Eagles, Bengals, Steelers and Broncos.
Of course the Raiders have also shown their ineptness by losing to the Chiefs, Redskins, Browns, the Giants by 37 points and the Jets by 38 points. I think the "quality wins" don't matter as much as the inept losses. So far their mental toughness has given them a 5-10 record. He says the glass is half full because the team has "mental and physical toughness" and I see a team that doesn't draft very well, doesn't hire the right people, poor coaching and with no quarterback that can run the team. I don't care if they have physical or mental toughness if they can't hire the right staff and players it won't matter.
One could argue that Oakland has more quality wins than the 13-1 Saints, and that is really saying something.
One could also argue the Saints (now 13-2) are 13-2 on the season and the Raiders are 5-10 and that's REALLY saying something more than "quality wins." I don't think there is much more to say other than this. This isn't college football or college basketball. There isn't extra credit for beating good teams despite having a poor overall record.
San Francisco 49ers --
Gregg Easterbrook would say get rid of Michael Crabtree because he is cursing the team. Ross Tucker actually had decent analysis of the situation so I didn't copy and paste it here.
Seattle Seahawks -- Here's hoping the Seahawks can either figure out or shake the incredible string of bad luck they've had with injuries over the last couple of seasons.
Does Ross Tucker mean bad luck like sticking with a quarterback who from all outward appearances is on the downside of his career? Or does he mean bad luck in regard to the fact the Seahawks went from a good running team to an average running team in a 2 year time span because Walter Jones retired, they didn't re-sign Steve Hutchinson and Shawn Alexander picked the year after he got a huge contract extension to be washed up?
Other than the fact the Seahawks don't have a bad defense in place right now, the best news is they play in the NFC West and they do have good young players that no knows about because they play on the West Coast.
St. Louis Rams -- How about the most dominating defensive player to come out of the college ranks in quite some time? Yes, the Rams still need to get their quarterback situation solved, but with no sure-fire No. 1 quarterback in this draft, their best bet is to take Suh so that they can immediately become more competitive.
Who cares that the Rams don't have a quarterback or many other players on the defense they can trust? It doesn't matter. The second Ndamukong Suh steps on the football field he will automatically make the Rams a "more competitive team" without the Rams putting anyone else around him. You know since NFL teams don't know how to scheme and take a player out of a game when he is the only one on the team who is capable of disrupting the offense. Of course Suh is going to have an impact, but I don't know how much is going to be able to impact the team defensively when the defense still lacks other playmakers.
(Did I forget about Chris Long when I just mentioned the lack of playmakers?... No I didn't)
There is no doubt the Rams will be a better team with Ndamukong Suh on the team but I still think the Rams need a quarterback, a better offensive line, perhaps some receivers, help along the defensive line and a secondary before they become too much more competitive.
Washington Redskins -- New general manager Bruce Allen is in control of football operations, which makes it sound like owner Daniel Snyder may step aside for the first time since Marty Schottenheimer was running the team back in 2001.
The odds in my mind of Daniel Synder really stepping aside and letting the football people run the football team? Probably maybe 20% at the highest.
This newspaper article explains why Snyder may end up not stepping aside that much with Bruce Allen in control of football operations.
No offense to Bruce Allen, who did some good things with the Raiders and the Bucs, but his track record is not exactly like Mike Holmgren or Bill Parcells' record when it comes to player personnel. It's pretty hit-and-miss.
From all indications, Mike Shanahan appears to be a lock to become the next head coach, and his presence would give the Skins immediate credibility and direction, something that's been severely lacking the last two years.
Another positive the Redskins can look forward to is the fact this team isn't that far from being good. They just need to decide on a quarterback to run the team and work on the offensive line, then I think the team will be in much better shape. Of course Ross Tucker focuses on the front office of the Redskins, which isn't a wrong answer, it's just he completely ignores the good players the Redskins already have on the roster (specifically the defense) that the fans and the team can look forward to helping them become a better team. Ignoring the fact the Redskins have Haynesworth, Orakpo, and London Fletcher is a mistake when discussing the Redskins chances next year.
I don't know if any fans of the teams listed feel better now that Ross Tucker has tried to perk them up with his silly positivity.
I hope everyone has a great New Year.
8 comments:
Weird formatting issue: half this post was invisible to me in Firefox (unless I highlighted it), while it showed up fine in IE.
The Raiders may be optimistic, but their track record in the draft has to be making their fans cringe at what they will choose this year.
I may be in the tiny minority on this one, but I don't think QB is a key issue for the Browns, until they fix their offensive line and find some receivers. I'm not saying either of their current quarterbacks ar the answer, but there is uncertainty until they have more time to throw and someone to catch the ball. Any quarterback would look bad in the Browns' offense (Except for Matt Cassell, of course. He would already have 6,000 yards this season, because he's Matt Cassell).
Good to know Carolina just needs to push the button marked "Better Quarterback Play" and everything will work out for them. They should have done that this year.
A lot of the article boils down to "team which sucks due to a history of bad personell decisions will improve because they will make good personell decisions." this seems like shakey logic to me.
Shit, I'm sorry I thought fixed that problem with the post. I was having a similar problem.
It's hard to be optimistic and still be a Raiders fan. I don't have a huge problem with the Browns quarterbacks, I think they need a lot more than just a QB to fix the team though. Drafting one right now in the 1st round might be a little counterproductive. Of course Matt Cassell could do great things, that's just a given.
Yeah, you said it better than I do, because it basically does boil down to teams who have made bad personnel decisions all of a sudden making good ones.
Now, if I could just fix this formatting problem...
The thing I enjoy "analysts" doing with respect to draft "steals" is completely ignore the fact that if you have 5 picks on the second day of the draft and 2 on the first day. The odds of finding ONE good player in the 5 picks is actually pretty good and usually every team has at least one "steal."
Basically, Knox is a good player and in hindsight wouldn't be a 5th round pick if the draft were redone, but, statistically speaking, at least one of the 5 second day picks should be at least okay. For example, Oakland hit on Louis Murphy (fourth), Cincinnati hit on Bernard Scott (sixth), the Chiefs got Succop (seventh) and those are just the late rounders I remember. Basically, if you go through most drafts, you'll find that there's a lot of good players and it shouldn't be shocking when a 4th/5th/6th/7th round pick turns out to be a good player.
That and you know what would make fans feel better about their team more than one late round pick panning out? A front office that drafts well in every round.
I would add that while Hasselback is on the downside of his career, the string of injuries they had two years ago at wide out was silly. They lost their top 5 receivers I think it was before the third game of the year. Last year, more of the same, but not quite as bad, plus they lost a bunch of games to injury on defense. This year, more injuries, including Hasselback breaking a rib in what, game 1 or 2? That really is a string of bad luck, and maybe they should think about getting a new training and conditioning staff.
Rich, good point. If a team has a bunch of late round picks and the front office is semi-competent, they are going to hit on at least one of those picks. I used to think Carolina was good at finding late round picks, but many times it is just a fact of the matter that they have usually 4-5 late round picks, and they draft fairly well so they are going to find a good player in there somewhere.
It is always better when a front office drafts well throughout the draft. One pick shouldn't make a team feel better.
Martin, I didn't add that part in there because it was a couple of years ago and they tried to address the wide receiver problem this year. I do feel like Seattle has had more injuries than a normal team usually has, I have to admit. That receiver injury list was insane two years ago...and it hasn't helped they don't really have a backup behind Hasselbeck that is not better than Seneca Wallace. I would hire a new strength and conditioning staff also.
Isn't it interesting that Steve Spagnuolo has managed to ruin two teams by leaving the Giants? Their defense is nowhere to be found, and Saint Louis...well, that one is self explanatory. Meanwhile Stephen Jackson is suffering from the Barry Sanders curse: losing the prime of his career to a talentless, perennial loser.
Falcons also did not get a break in the scheduling department when they faced 4 teams in 6 weeks that were coming off byes.
The Giants defense is absolutely terrible right now and I don't know why. I think he will turn the Rams around at some point...at least defensively, but right now it is funny that he has ruined two teams.
Anon, I didn't know that part about the Falcons schedule. The loss of Turner, Ryan and a couple of young guys on defense haven't helped either.
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