7 comments MMQB Review: Peter's Back And He Will Not Take Any Elevator Cutting

It is Fantasy Football time again. If anyone is interested in me starting up a BotB fantasy football league again, just tell me in the comments or email me and I will set it up if we have enough interest.

Peter King is back. He is back from vacation and he is back from covering (and butchering certain parts of his coverage) of the World Cup. It's good to have my Monday staple back, though I will probably regret his being back about halfway through the MMQB. This week Peter gives some predictions and catches up with the news that happened while he was gone. It's almost NFL season and Peter is here to write about every conversation he has ever had with a player.

In case you were wondering (and who wasn't?), Peter doesn't give a Brett Favre update...but he gives a Brett Favre update.

Today is the start of football season for me, and it's a great feeling because this is as wide-open a season entering training camp as I can remember.

The headline before the 2009 season: "Today is the start of football season for me, and it's a great feeling because this is as wide-open a season entering training camp as I can remember."

The headline before the 2007 season: "Today is the start of football season for me, and it's a great feeling because this is as wide-open a season entering training camp as I can remember."

The headline before the 2006 season: "Today is the start of football season for me, and it's a great feeling because this is as wide-open a season entering training camp as I can remember."

The headline nearly every single year for the past 15 years: "Today is the start of football season for me, and it's a great feeling because this is as wide-open a season entering training camp as I can remember."

It is the NFL. It is unpredictable and anyone can win the Super Bowl (almost). That is why we all love the sport. I don't think this year is any more wide open than any other year. Even in 2008 when the Patriots were supposed to repeat coming off the 18-1 season, the NFL became unpredictable when Tom Brady got injured in the first game of the season.

Optimism everywhere. Rightfully so. The last three Super Bowl winners, in the year prior to winning it all, won 8, 10 and 8 games. (The Giants, Steelers and Saints managed that trifecta.) That means one of the following teams -- winners of between 8 and 10 games last year -- should feel very, very good entering training camp this week:

"Let's take a sample size of three seasons and try to pretend like this small sample size actually proves something!"

I can play this game too:

The last three quarterbacks to win a Super Bowl were all white, so all of the teams in the NFL that have a white quarterback should feel very, very good entering training camp. Teams with quarterbacks that are not white, well better luck in drafting Jake Locker next year.

The last two Super Bowl winning teams before the Saints won last year lost their best receiver either through suspension or trade, so Marques Colston is probably going to get suspended this year or get traded.

It is fun to take a small sample size and just try to make it prove something. The best part is that the list of teams that Peter says should feel good about their chances this season is thirteen teams long.

1. New England (10 wins).
2. New York Jets (9).
3. Cincinnati (10).
4. Baltimore (9).
5. Pittsburgh (9).
6. Houston (9).
7. Tennessee (8).
8. Denver (8).
9. New York Giants (8).
10. Atlanta (9).
11. Carolina (8).
12. Arizona (10).
13. San Francisco (8).

So it may mean more that nearly half the NFL had between 8-10 wins than anything else. If you take half of the NFL and then predict one of those teams will win the Super Bowl, those aren't terrible odds.

That's 41 percent of the league with the same shot the past three Super Bowl winners had entering the year they won it. Take that to Vegas, put $20 on each team and, hey, you should make more than $260.

Or as I look at it, Peter just chose 13 teams that had a .500 or better record last year as teams that could win the Super Bowl. These teams were already average-to-good teams and could have a few breaks go their way this year and win the Super Bowl. I don't find this 8-to-10 win example all that interesting to be honest. It contains teams that either had good luck last year, bad luck last year or are improving and don't have to play the tough schedule (most likely) that a 12 or 13 win team has to play, so they should have a better record this year.

Two teams knocking on the door pretty consistently (Packers averaging 10 wins a year over the past three years, Chargers 11 a year over the past six season), both with terrific young quarterbacks (Aaron Rodgers 27, Philip Rivers 28), both with suspect defenses.

Kind of sounds like the Saints last year.

So the key to winning the Super Bowl in Peter's eyes is to have a suspect defense? A suspect defense, that's all you ever really need.

I think if people start basing their predictions for this year's Super Bowl on what last year's Saints team looked like there are going to be some really wrong predictions. I think if a person wants to have the incorrect prediction, just keep looking for teams with suspect defenses.

"You know I picked you guys to make it to the Super Bowl,'' I said to San Diego quarterback Philip Rivers the other day. "But I'm a little worried about the guys you might not have.''

They just kept coming, day after day. Not that we haven't been hungry. But we've gained the knowledge of what it takes to win by coming so close so often.''

See the Chargers have a head start on every other team because they know how to lose home playoff games they are favored to win. This makes them stronger according to Philip Rivers. They know how to lose those games, now they will just figure out how to win those playoff games.

The stories I'll be watching the closest in the next six weeks:

(Spoiler alert) Tim Tebow and Brett Favre gets mentions in this section. I know, I know, it is shocking. I don't cover the Tebow section because as much complaining about him as I do, I find him to be boring.

I think everyone -- not just Steeler Nation -- is anxious to see if Roethlisberger is genuinely chagrined and humbled by his BMOC stupidity of the last couple of years. I hear mixed reports on this, but not a lot of people who have spoken to Roethlisberger are leaking the contents of those discussions.

Here's my jaded opinion. He won't change. If he didn't change the first time a woman (falsely) accused him of sexual impropriety with her, he isn't going to change too much this time either. He can't change his entire personality over a 7 month span. It is very hard to do that. He's just going to be more careful from now on.

Can Santonio Holmes and Braylon Edwards -- both in contract years -- co-exist? Is Jason Taylor washed up?

I think the question should be whether Braylon Edwards is washed up? Also, Jason Taylor isn't washed up, but I don't think his signing by the Jets is a huge, huge deal. He is going to be 36 years old and I can't seem being an every down guy anyway.

Can Antonio Cromartie have some discipline on Friday nights, if you know what I mean?

I don't know what you mean. People only have sex on Friday nights? Or this just what Antonio Cromartie likes to do? I would be more worried about Cromartie on Sunday night or another night during the week than Friday night.

Interesting that I've asked 64 important questions and haven't mentioned LaDainian Tomlinson, but remember this: I think Shonn Greene's the genuine item and will exceed 1,400 rushing yards if healthy. That leaves scraps for Tomlinson. He's not going to like scraps.

I don't know if Shonn Greene is the genuine item. I'll get back to you on that. There is a big difference in sharing time with Thomas Jones and being the #1 running back.

I'm glad that Peter has finally acknowledged this LaDainian Tomlinson signing in New York isn't possibly going to work out. Tomlinson thinks he is still a feature back and he isn't even close to being on that level. The Jets had Leon Washington, Shonn Greene, and Thomas Jones in 2009. Now they have Shonn Greene, LT, and Joe McKnight. The running game has been impacted negatively by these moves AND the Jets cut Alan Faneca. This Tomlinson situation isn't going to end pretty, we should have known that the second he signed with the Jets.

I don't think I will have the Jets making the playoffs this year.

I like something I heard from Drew Brees recently. We all think the same thing about the Saints -- namely, that it's hard enough to repeat (in the past 12 seasons, only one team, New England, has won back-to-back titles) without the never-ending celebrations the Saints have gone through over the last six months. We'll be looking for signs that the Saints aren't complacent when we take their temperature in training camp.

"I wanted to see how our attitude was in mini-camps and OTAs too,'' Brees told me. "And this was interesting -- there were more fights, more jawing at guys on the other side of the ball, than I've ever seen in an offseason. There were times we had to cut back on offense-defense work, like, you know, guys were going to get hurt. I got the impression the mindset was on track, and I saw guys with their heads in the right place.''

I don't know if I can believe the fact there was more attitude and fighting at mini-camp means the Saints still are on the right mindset for the season. I tend to think while fighting does show competitiveness, it also that a team may not actually be focused on the football aspect of the upcoming season. I could be wrong. I just don't agree with Peter King that more fighting at practice means all will be well in New Orleans this year.

I like Carolina and Seattle to surprise.

Shit. There goes the 2010 season.

5. The rest: ... Kevin Kolb's going to be a compelling story. I like his moxie, and I like the moxie of Andy Reid trading Donovan McNabb with three or four relatively prime years left to give Kolb his long-term shot.

Donovan McNabb doesn't have three or four prime years left. He is 33 years old and has had injury issues even when he was younger. McNabb may have two relatively prime years left, but he won't be in his prime at the age of 36. He may still be a decent quarterback, but he won't be near his relative prime at that age. There's no way.

The F word. I have no information for you, other than I, like all of you, think Brett Favre's going to show up in time to play the third preseason game (Aug. 28, Metrodome, Seattle in town). Too many clues, like Favre saying how much more can he hurt his wounded ankle, and like the clear affection he has for his teammates in Minnesota

Brett Favre will show up just long enough to charm his teammates and let them believe he gives a shit about them, but he will also be late enough to where he doesn't have to sweat in the hot sun with his teammates. This waffling about retirement and trying to get your way all the time is a delicate balance.

Tom Brady and Peyton Manning and Drew Brees all enter the last year of their contracts, singing for their respective supper. They are the three best players in football, in my opinion. And we're going to get beat over the head with this story over the next six months, but the reality is -- even though one or more of these players will get his nose bent out of joint over how much he's making -- none of these guys will let the money have any impact on how he plays

What Peter means is "I am going to beat you over the head with the contract situation of these players. I am also going to use graphs and other means to show what these players are worth to their teams."

My training camp trip. This is tentative, because things happen, but as of this morning, here's where I plan to be over the next month:

July 27

San Antonio
Dallas Cowboys
What I'll be looking for: The shade. It'll be 96 in Spurville.

July 28
San Antonio
Dallas Cowboys
What I'll be looking for: How Dallas deals with being The Hot Team.

Two days in Dallas? He does know Dallas isn't in the Northeast doesn't he?

Aug. 5
Flagstaff, Ariz.
Arizona Cardinals
What I'll be looking for: Not Emmitt Smith. Last time in Flag, he hated me.

This was also one of the last times Peter King actually didn't get buddy-buddy with one of the athletes he covered. In 2003, Emmitt Smith told Peter the following in reference to his last season playing with the Cowboys,

"It felt like being a diamond surrounded by trash,"

Peter reported and wrote this in Sports Illustrated when doing his camp tours in 2003. Now of course today if Peter liked the athlete who said something like this, he would leave the quote out or make an excuse for why this was said. In 2003, Peter King did not do that.

First of all, did Smith say he was misquoted? Anywhere? No. And so let me ask all of you practicing and non-practicing journalists a question: If you were doing an interview with a man who was throwing daggers at his former team, with an annoyed edge in his voice, and he said the "diamond surrounded by trash" line, would you write it? I think you would.

That isn't the way it works, Emmitt. When you say something, and it's hurtful to some people, it's not our job to soft-pedal it. It's our job to report it.

I have completely forgotten about this controversy to be honest. It was seven years ago and now I can't even imagine Peter getting into a tiff with an athlete like this. Maybe it could happen, but I feel like Peter would have kept this quote to himself if this happened in 2010.

Aug. 10-12
Home in Boston for a three-day lull, but with a visit to see the Saints in Providence prior to their game at New England

What he really means is that he will be spending three days watching the Patriots practice and then covering the Patriots a little bit more while they play the Saints in a preseason game.

When the day comes Peter admits the Patriots would be his favorite NFL team if he didn't cover the NFL, then on that day I will quit saying things like this.

Aug. 28
Minneapolis
Minnesota Vikings
What I'll be looking for: Seahawks-Vikings game ... Who's Vikes QB?

If it is not Brett Favre at this point I will be amazed. It is stupid to even try and pretend Brett Favre won't be the quarterback for the Vikings this upcoming season. Why is there even a question about it? Favre is practicing in Mississippi, he hates training camp, and Brad Childress will let him miss training camp. Favre will be ready for the season, he is just waiting for camp to be over and a good chance to hog the spotlight. I don't know why Peter even pretends we won't know exactly who the Vikings QB will be at this point.

Stat of the Week

One of the most difficult tasks I had in revising my list of the top 100 players in football in the spring (for the paperback version of the MMQB book, out this fall) was figuring where to rank the top quarterbacks in football. A year ago, before the Saints won the Super Bowl, I had five quarterbacks in the top 12:

1. Peyton Manning
2. Tom Brady
3. Ben Roethlisberger
8. Drew Brees
12. Philip Rivers

I never knew this. Peter King had Ben Roethlisberger as the third best player in the NFL? Am I not remembering this list or did I just neglect to mention this list? How the hell did I miss a list that had Ben Roethlisberger as the third best player in the NFL? I probably ignored it because it seemed too stupid to even talk about. Roethlisberger is a great quarterback and football player, but no way in hell is the third best player in the NFL. He got ranked above Drew Brees?

I had six quarterbacks in the top 12 this year:

1. Manning
2. Brady
3. Brees
5. Roethlisberger
11. Rivers
12. Aaron Rodgers

Roethlisberger at #5? I think he is a great quarterback, but I don't think he is in the class of Rivers or Aaron Rodgers. Maybe I haven't been paying enough attention or need to respect Roethlisberger more.

Anyone who reads this blog knows I have developed an affinity for Aaron Rodgers after the whole "Brett Favre-Aaron Rodgers" fiasco two summers ago in Green Bay. I favored Rodgers in that argument, and not only because Favre's whole "retirement/no retirement" act got old. I thought Rodgers had paid his dues as a backup and would be successful (but not this successful necessarily) as a starter. I think we can all conclude now that Green Bay did the right thing in letting Favre stay retired/trading him to the Jets and keeping Aaron Rodgers. Rodgers is an elite quarterback and he shown he deserves a starting job with the Packers. I am glad this has been decided.

Enjoyable/Aggravating Travel Note of the Week

The Westin Hotel/Michigan Avenue in Chicago has long been a hotel of choice for me, because of its proximity to everything in such a great city. Last week, on my last travel leg of vacation, it was also the scene of something I never could have expected: an argument that, in 10 seconds, almost escalated into a hotel-lobby brawl.

You don't fuck with Peter King when he is trying to get to his hotel room. You know hotels don't always just hold your room for you! Sometimes they overbook and then you have to find another hotel, perhaps even one that doesn't have free coffee! It's like a third-world country at some of these hotels.

So when my wife and I got to the bank of elevators around 6 p.m., there were 15 or so people waiting for the one working lift. We waited two, three, four minutes. Now there were 25 or 30 people waiting. And then a 35ish man wedged in to the left of the crowd waiting for the elevator. He looked at the line of people and looked peeved. We all were, of course. Then the door opened and 10 or 12 people came off. And the 35ish man took three quick steps to the elevator.

"Hey, hey, hey,'' I said. "Come on, buddy. That's not right.''

Peter says this as a he sips his Starbucks latte with cherry swirls.

The guy stopped, looked at me angrily and snarled, "Don't tell me what to do. I wasn't going on.''

"Yes you were,'' I said. "I saw what you were doing. That's not right.''

If only Donnie "Brasco" Banks were here right now. He HATES people who line-skip. He'd kick ass and take names if he were in this situation.

He took a couple of steps toward me and said angrily, "I'm a Starwood Preferred member.''

At this point I would have laughed in his face. He's too pathetic to even fight with.

"You're also an a------,'' I said.

This is the part where Peter King gets killed by a 35ish man in Chicago.

I obviously shouldn't have said that, but he deserved it. Now Mr. Starwood Preferred walked the final three steps toward me and said. "You wanna step outside?'' He bumped my chest hard. "People who use that word are looking for a fight,'' he said.

Which is true. People who use that word are looking for a fight. Plus, he is a Starwood Preferred member.

He was breathing hard on me. "You're a big talker,'' he said, stepping back a step or two.

Apparently Peter King got in a fight with a 1980's movie villain.

"And you're still an a------,'' I said.

By the way, this is my favorite travel note ever. By far.

He stepped toward me again. Almost simultaneously, a front-desk gal near the bank of elevators chirped, "I can take a few people up the service elevator!'' So my wife sidestepped the guy. I walked toward the door, me staring at Mr. Starwood Preferred the whole way.

So in summation, Peter King deserved to get his ass kicked, but he was in the right on this issue. It is fine to call the guy an asshole and then back down a bit, but Peter called him an asshole twice and then stared him down. It is like Peter WANTED a fight. Perhaps Brett Favre didn't return his phone call that day. Who knows?

I don't know exactly why -- it's not testosterone, I don't think -- but I almost wish Mr. Starwood Preferred had taken a swing at me. Even if he'd pummeled me (and he may well have), he'd have known that at least one person out of 30 sniffed out the real idiot in the crowd.

Actually Peter is the one that acted like an idiot for continuously baiting this guy...even though Peter was right and the guy was a jerk. You can't bait random strangers into almost fighting you, this is just a rule I have.

3. I think I expect Wes Welker to be ready to play opening day for the Patriots.

Well now I can sleep better knowing this. Why aren't their graphs and charts detailing all about how Welker is recovering from his injury compared to Tom Brady recovered from his injury? You are slipping Peter King!

5. I think you might be wondering why I said "NFC'' in the previous item. Easy. There's going to be no team with more pressure, and it won't even be close, than the 2010 New York Jets. I hope Rex Ryan and Mike Tannenbaum knew what they were doing when they said yes to HBO for the Hard Knocks show because it sure seems more attention is just what they won't need in August.

I know the Jets have a great defense and on paper they have improved that defense, but I can't help but think there are too many players with question marks on this team. I can't explain it, but I feel like this is all going to implode in some way. If it doesn't then I don't know if the Jets will give up 150 points on defense this year, but it feels like a lot of guys with question marks in a pressure-filled environment to be on one team.

6. I think the Redskins have to sign Donovan McNabb long-term. The question is, at what price?

I'm going to shut up about this, but how long-term is my question? He is going to be 34 years old this year. I know the Redskins want to keep him, but how long-term will be able to play at a high level?

8. I think I love the fact that Dez Bryant, star rookie receiver for the Cowboys, wouldn't carry the pads of Roy Williams, fading veteran receiver for the Cowboys.

How can you love this? I know he is standing up for himself, but all of the pre-draft questions about Bryant come back when he won't carry the pads for a teammate...no matter the skill level of that teammate. I can't love this because this is a receiver in Bryant who hasn't done ANYTHING in the NFL, yet he is already acting like your stereotypical diva receiver.

But it's just that I want a guy I think will be a big-time player to have some attitude to him -- so long as he shows up and practices hard every day. He's there to play football, not carry someone's pads.

He is there to play football, but it is part of the rookie hazing process that he carries the veteran's pads. If it is that much trouble for him to carry his teammate's pads, will he want to do something a coach asks him to do? If Bryant sees it fit to change a route he is running in a game, why can't he do that? I may be getting extreme, but I just would prefer he carry his teammate's pads even though he doesn't want to.

Now, he'll pay for it somehow, but he's drawing his own line there. Good for him.

I don't like it. Part of being a rookie is knowing your place on the team. Bryant hasn't done anything yet and he is a rookie. He should take part in some rookie hazing even if he doesn't like it.

Has Carlos Lee always been that girthy?

Yes, he has always been fat. I was in the left field seats at a Braves game a few years ago and I was calling him "fat" every once in a while. I also got weird looks from the incredibly polite Braves fans around me. I love Braves fans, but I wouldn't have minded a fat-ass chant at some point during the game...because he is fat. They are just too nice to do that though.

So anyway, back on topic. Carlos Lee has always been that girthy. Welcome to the world of non-Red Sox baseball Peter King!

e. Ran into Larry King at Nate and Al's deli in Beverly Hills. That's his breakfast haunt. "Who's your surprise team of the season?'' he asked me. I said, "Carolina.'' Expected him to say: "Charlotte, North Carolina ... Hello!''

That's a terrible joke and please quit picking Carolina for anything other than "team most likely to not win a game."

d. It's been a busy time for death. I really liked and admired Vic Ziegel, the New York sports editor and columnist, who died over the weekend, as much for his acerbic wit in the press box as for his irreverent writing.

I wonder if Peter King knows that non-important people die everyday? Death is busy all the time.

That's my morbid thought for the day.

h. Caught a couple of episodes of The Bachelorette, unfortunately.

Peter should call the Sports Gal and watch The Bachelorette with her. Imagine Peter King and Bill Simmons in the same room.

And I can only say this: How can a girl profess undying love for four guys, one day loving one and the next flying somewhere else and loving another? And who thinks this is a natural, or admirable? What a dumb TV show.

I bet that asshole Starwood Preferred Member guy watches this show. What an asshole.