10 comments A Look at Andrew Luck

I am not sure I like the phrase "Suck for Luck," so I probably won't ever be using that phrase in describing teams that may be in the running for Andrew Luck in the 2012 NFL Draft. I figured I would do something a little bit different today and talk about the teams that look like they will be in contention for the #1 overall pick, what they would do with the pick if they got the #1 overall pick, and if a team not in contention for the #1 overall pick would trade up for the pick. I will also discuss whether Andrew Luck would refuse to be drafted by certain NFL teams, whether that would even be a good or bad thing for the team getting the #1 overall pick and finally if there is a chance Luck doesn't come out into the 2012 NFL Draft.

So here are the NFL teams that currently look like they are on pace to get the #1 overall pick or those teams that could be in contention for the pick and what they could conceivably do with the pick. I picked eight teams who I can see getting the #1 overall team, which may be overkill, but I wanted to be thorough.

Miami Dolphins

The Dolphins have major problems. Matt Moore isn't the answer and Chad Henne probably isn't either. If only Henne had been drafted by the Patriots then he would have a couple Super Bowls by now (right, Bleacher Report?). So for the second straight year, Matt Moore can help a team receive the #1 overall pick. The Dolphins would undoubtedly draft Luck and do so with a smile.

Jacksonville Jaguars

The Jags have other problems outside of quarterback, plus they just drafted Blaine Gabbert. No offense to Gabbert, but there are two things he has going against him.

1. The pressure to take a "franchise" quarterback would be too great for the Jags to pass up Luck and if Gabbert doesn't pick his performance up soon then he will have gotten his one very short shot at starting for the Jags. Gabbert has shown potential to be an NFL starter, but there is much less certainty around him than there is surrounding Luck. I'm not saying Gabbert can't be better than Luck, but perception is reality in the eyes of many.

2. I think Jack Del Rio will be gone after this year. I am not as sure Gene Smith will be gone, but he is in the final year of his contract. If Del Rio/Smith are gone, the new regime isn't stuck the stigma of it being their choice to trade up to get Gabbert and won't be afraid to bench him after one year...or create an "open" quarterback competition in training camp. Also, new regimes mean new quarterbacks. It's been shown throughout the history of the NFL.

Therefore, I think the Jaguars take Luck.

Indianapolis Colts

I really think this is a much more complicated issue than it is being given credit for. The Colts are Peyton Manning's team and after this year's performance by the Colts we see why. I know the Colts say they would take Luck if they get the #1 overall pick, but I question whether that is true or not. It sounds crazy to pass up Luck, I agree. If I am the Colts, I think about doing it though. There are a couple of reasons I see why the Colts would pass up Luck.

1. They have other holes on the roster to fill. This hasn't been more apparent than this year. Missing Peyton Manning as their quarterback seems to be one of many problems for the Colts. Even if Manning were healthy, I can see the Colts going 10-6, which traditionally is not a good record for them with Manning as their quarterback. So trading the #1 overall pick and picking up multiple draft picks to ride out Peyton Manning's last couple of years seems like a smart move for now and later. There is no rule saying the Colts can't get a quarterback later in the 2012 draft, and even if they don't do that, Andrew Luck isn't the last quality quarterback ever to come out of college to the NFL.

2. Peyton Manning will be back. I have no doubt Manning will be back on the field for the Colts and I can't think of any circumstances right now that would cause the Colts to trade him when they draft Andrew Luck. So knowing Manning will be on the roster, do you really think he is going to spend the last few years of his Hall of Fame career "mentoring" Andrew Luck, a guy who is by all accounts very NFL-ready? Or do you think Manning will want to try and win one last Super Bowl and not give a shit about Luck being mentored?

I see the Colts drafting Luck and ending up with a Favre-Rodgers situation (which turned out fine for the Packers, granted), except the Aaron Rodgers (Luck) in this situation probably wouldn't want to sit the bench for more than one year. Peyton Manning may be perfectly willing to "mentor" Andrew Luck, but given his stranglehold on the Colts offense and it is clear Manning likes having this power, I don't know if he would be willing to be a placeholder/teacher for a few years.

3. I'll get more into this later, but don't you think Andrew Luck knows Peyton Manning may not mentor him and Luck would refuse to play for the Colts? The Aaron Rodgers in this situation has a father with an NFL pedigree who expects his son to start very quickly for whichever team drafts him. So the Colts may not end up with Luck even if they want him. This is all assuming Manning will be back, which he will be. His competitive fire runs too deep to just quit after an injury. He will do whatever he can to get back. So even if the Colts wanted to draft Luck, it not be in their best interests to do so if Luck doesn't want to play for them, knowing he will sit on the bench for at least one year.

Denver Broncos

They would have to take Andrew Luck, right? My two questions about this are:

1. What about Tim Tebow? He has trade value, so the one person I can see supplanting Tebow in the minds and hearts of Broncos fans is Andrew Luck. I don't think the fan base would hate to lose Tebow at the expense of Luck. Now, if Tebow has an incredible last half of the season, this may change. Otherwise, no matter how much the Broncos fan base likes Tim Tebow, they would be glad to pick Luck #1 overall.

2. John Fox. The guy doesn't like young quarterbacks and he is a control freak. Andrew Luck is going to need a certain part of control in the offense (like he has at Stanford) to succeed. Would Fox be willing to give him this? I question whether the answer is a "yes." Much of what makes Luck a great quarterback (control at the line of scrimmage, throwing the ball to tight ends, and the ability to get in a passing rhythm) are not strong aspects of a John Fox offense. So Denver may not be the best place for Luck, though it conceivably could be if Fox let go of some control and opened up the offense more.

Minnesota Vikings

I think they would draft Andrew Luck. I have only seen a few Christian Ponder games where he has started, but as good as Ponder is/may be, I can see the Vikings having a new coach next year. A new coach may mean a new quarterback. I can see the Vikings loving Ponder and keeping him while accumulating picks in exchange for Andrew Luck. This would be an interesting decision for the Vikings and given the hype around Luck it would also be a very unpopular decision. Granted, we don't have complete information because we haven't seen Ponder start more than a few games, so it is hard to make a decision one way or another. At this point, I would say it is 55% the Vikings draft Luck.

Arizona Cardinals

This is a tough call as well. I am not sure Ken Whisenhunt would get fired after this season, but would he admit the trade for Kolb was a mistake after one year? Like it or not, drafting Luck would be admitting this. If I am Whisenhunt, I would drop my pride and draft Luck.

Larry Fitzgerald would probably love to have Andrew Luck, and he probably wouldn't be afraid to admit it, because he has to really, really miss Kurt Warner. So far, the Kevin Kolb Experience hasn't worked out the way he had hoped. I would think the Cardinals would take Luck and deal with just saying Kolb didn’t work out in his one year as the starter.

St. Louis Rams

To me, this is a complete no-brainer, and if any team on this list go could go from terrible to fantastic in one draft it would be the Rams. They have Sam Bradford and he has shown enough not to replace him with Luck. The haul Luck would bring in would help the Rams fill in the positions of need for them, specifically the secondary, receivers, and perhaps some offensive line help. It’s clear the Rams need help, especially in the secondary and at receiver, so having multiple high-er draft picks could go a long way towards fixing these issues.

I realize Bradford has his critics and I also realize he hasn't shown an ability to stay healthy and stay on the field. So not choosing Luck is going out on a limb that Bradford needs a better offensive line and wide receivers to make him successful in the NFL...while also going out on a limb saying he can stay healthy. It could be a tough sell, I know this. The one caveat I would thrown in is I would draft Luck if I were the Rams only if they could get some value for Bradford prior to the draft in the form of a draft pick or picks.

Carolina Panthers

Carolina will not draft Andrew Luck since they already have a quarterback they see as the quarterback of the future in Cam Newton. If Carolina got the #1 overall pick they would undoubtedly begin to upgrade the sieve-like defense or trade it for cash to clone Steve Smith and hire better trainers in order to prevent Thomas Davis from blowing out his ACL for a fourth time.

So those are the teams I could see in contention for the #1 overall pick. There are a few teams that aren’t in contention for the #1 overall pick who I could see trading up to get the #1 overall pick and the greatest quarterback of all-time historically the best quarterback ever girls love him for his neck beard and bizarre voice Hall of Fame bound Andrew Luck.

Right now, I see three teams as prime candidates to trade up. These teams are the Cleveland Browns, Washington Redskins, and Seattle Seahawks. Obviously, something could happen and another team could sneak into this discussion, but right now this is the list as I see it.

Cleveland Browns

Colt McCoy seems stuck at that point where he is good enough to start for the Browns, but not too good to where he can’t be replaced. We’ll call this “The Jason Campbell Zone.” Teams seem intrigued enough by Campbell to have him be their quarterback, but then end up replacing him with a "better" quarterback. The Browns have some draft picks from the Julio Jones trade last year, so it would be interesting to see if they traded up to get Andrew Luck. It would be very gutsy move, though it would also seem out of character for a team that seems intent on accumulating draft picks to improve through the draft.

Washington Redskins

I don’t want to come out bashing the Redskins. Partly because it is too easy and because the jokes are made by everyone. Combine Mike Shanahan’s “genius” ability to turn an already quality quarterback into a quality quarterback and not improve a mediocre quarterback, the Redskins need for a quarterback, and the inevitable impatience of Shanahan to prove he can turn the team around with Dan Snyder’s impatience and want to make a splash…and I think we have the team most likely to trade up for Andrew Luck. It wouldn’t be a bad move either. It would give Shanahan the chance to attach himself to a quality quarterback to further enhance his reputation and it would also greatly improve the Redskins team.

Seattle Seahawks

I’m not sure I am worthy to give the Seahawks quarterback advice of any type. I didn’t hate the Charlie Whitehurst trade when it happened and I wanted Tarvaris Jackson to get another shot at quarterback in the NFL. So because was wrong about those quarterbacks, it means the Seahawks still need a quarterback. Do the Seahawks have other needs? Of course they do, but as we learned from the Peyton Manning era in Indianapolis, a franchise quarterback can help a team cover up other problems. If Sidney Rice ever finds another quarterback to get him the ball and hasn’t given up at that point, then Luck would already have a good receiver to throw the ball to. The Seahawks need a quarterback and Pete Carroll probably won’t be afraid to admit the Jackson signing and Whitehurst trade didn’t work out.

So now the question posed is whether Andrew Luck would refuse to go to certain NFL teams or not.

The idea of Luck pulling an Eli Manning or John Elway has already been discussed by some sportswriters. Predicting whether Manning would refuse to play for a certain team that is drafting #1 overall or not is completely a guessing game at this point. No one can say for certain what he will/won’t do in that regard. It’s fun to guess though.

I think Andrew Luck is in a unique position to control what team he plays for in the NFL and I think his father is media-savvy enough to do this and not have it backfire on them. Luck would be stupid to not want to exert some control over the team that drafts him or at least have control over where he eventually ends up. So I can see Luck refusing to go to certain teams if they have the #1 overall pick. I am also not sure I would have a problem with it either, simply because he is in a unique position to control his future. I would probably come out and mock Luck's father for being overbearing and not wanting his son to play for Team X, but which player/father in a position like Luck's position wouldn't want to have a say in what team he ended up on?

Now, having said that, there aren’t really too many teams in contention for the #1 overall pick I could see Luck refusing to play for. While understanding Luck is in a unique position to control his future, with the state of the NFL today he should (and probably does) know teams can turn their fortunes around quickly. So a team that looks unattractive today, can very well be in the playoffs in two years. Keeping that in mind, remember the Chargers looked a mess when they drafted Eli Manning (Manning refused to play for San Diego) and that trade worked out for both sides. Things can change.

Minnesota Vikings

I see no reason why he wouldn’t want to play for an owner who is dedicated to putting a good team on the field, why he wouldn't want to play with Adrian Peterson and playing in a dome may be a good thing for him. The Vikings may very well have a different head coach as well after this season, so I would see this as a good situation for Luck and think he would believe the same.

St. Louis Rams

Luck wouldn't refuse to play for the Rams unless for some reason they kept Bradford on the roster.

Arizona Cardinals

This is somewhat a wild card team because the Bidwells haven't had the greatest reputation around the NFL in the past. Still, the chance to play with an elite receiver like Larry Fitzgerald means Luck wouldn’t protest.

Seattle Seahawks

It looks like Pete Carroll will be around and who doesn’t want to play for him? He’s like a kid out there coaching. Still, the neck-beard king may see himself as being too good for the upper Northwest, but I’m guessing not.

(On a side note, is Andrew Luck the ugliest quarterback in the history of the NFL/college football or what? Good thing he has a ton of skill because he looks horrendous with his neck-beard. Can you imagine Luck doing commercials for high-end watches or some sort of athletic apparel? His neck-beard makes him look terrible, but he isn't pretty without it. I can see him selling used cars in a local commercial, not doing national commercials unless there is a makeover of some type done. Maybe I've just seen bad pictures of him.)

Denver Broncos

John Elway is in the Broncos organization. As much as we would all enjoy karma if a quarterback refused to play for the Broncos with Elway at the helm, I see no reason why Luck wouldn’t go there.

Washington Redskins

It’s a big market and he could learn under Mike Shanahan, the greatest of all geniuses. What could be better than a genius for a head coach combined with the greatest NFL prospect All-Pro quarterback Hall of Famer in the history of the universe Andrew Luck?

Cleveland Browns

They have a pretty good offensive line, Mike Holmgren is involved with the organization and they run a version of the West Coast offense. I think there are worst teams Luck could go to. I see no reason why Luck would protest going there.

The only three teams I can see Luck refusing to be drafted by (and not having his rights traded) are the Colts, the Dolphins and the Jaguars. I can see him protesting these teams for various reasons, which I will outline below.

Indianapolis Colts

The only reason I can see Andrew Luck refusing to play in Indianapolis is if Peyton Manning is healthy and doesn't want to give up his starting job. The Colts seem like a perfect landing spot for Luck, but contrary to the seems-to-be popular opinion, I don't know if Peyton Manning has the idea in his head that everyone's time to step out of the way comes. Luck is going to most likely want to start, if not immediately, after his second year in the league. If Peyton Manning is healthy, I just don't see how that is possible.

Miami Dolphins

I can see Luck refusing to go to Miami if they have some of the same regime that is currently in place now. All indications are that Tony Sparano is gone after this year, but if he should stay behind, I can imagine the Luck family possibly not wanting Luck to start his first year under what they perceive to be a lame-duck head coach. On the positive side, once the Dolphins overpay for Bill Cowher, Luck very well may want to go to Miami to play with a decent defense and a rebuilding offense. As long as Cowher can bring the entire Steelers organization with him to Miami, he should be successful as a head coach. I don't believe things are falling completely apart in Miami, but if the head coach and GM don't go then I don't see Luck coming to Miami.

Jacksonville Jaguars

Personnel-wise, I am not sure the Jaguars are an unattractive team. The problem is they don't seem to have accumulated a huge fan base that comes to games and very well could move in the near future. Of course if they move to Los Angeles, that would be a good thing for Luck, but will he want to go to a team that plays in a market with little team support which drafted their "franchise" quarterback last year and traditionally has a tough time finding quality wide receivers? On the bright side, they could move to Los Angeles and it isn't like the Jags don't have a good running game.

I think one of the most overblown stories, which I just helped overblow, is whether Luck will demand a trade to ensure he isn't drafted by a certain team. At this point, nearly every team wants Andrew Luck, but is it a good thing or a bad thing that he demands not to be drafted by a certain team? I don't necessarily believe it is a bad thing for the team with the #1 overall if he refuses to be drafted by that certain team.

Luck will have tremendous trade value at the top spot of the draft. Sure, a team wants to draft a franchise quarterback, but if Luck isn't going to play for the team with the #1 overall pick then it isn't a terrible position to be in to accumulate draft picks by trading his rights. History helps to prove this as true in a few situations.

2004: The rights to Eli Manning are traded to the Giants for Phillip Rivers (and picks that turn into) Shawne Merriman, Nate Kaeding, and then the Chargers traded a fifth round pick from the trade for Roman Oben. Overall, this trade worked out well for the Chargers and the Giants.

2001: The Chargers trade the #1 overall pick (Mike Vick was chosen) to the Falcons for the 5th pick in the 1st round (LaDainian Tomlinson), 2001 3rd round pick (Tay Cody), a 2002 2nd round pick (Reche Caldwell) and Tim Dwight. Then the Chargers then took Drew Brees with their 2nd round pick in 2001.

So my point is your personal opinion of refusing to play for a certain team aside, it isn’t always a terrible happening when a team trades the first overall pick as long as that team can get value for the pick by drafting well. I have joked Andrew Luck would be worth nine 1^st round draft picks, which isn’t true, but I would think a team could at least get two 1^st round picks and a 2^nd round pick out of the deal. Sure, that team would be giving up Andrew Luck, but there are other quarterbacks potentially available in the upcoming 2012 NFL Draft. Trading the pick, though not holding your ground and being seen as "weak" (which few people will remember if a team drafts well with the picks acquired), would be a good way for a bad team to begin to quickly improve.

So there is the upside to Luck refusing to play for a certain team. The upside being, while a team misses out on a potential franchise quarterback, that team has the opportunity to improve the team at more than just one position. Of course the downside is if the team with the #1 overall draft pick chooses poorly then they have essentially given up a franchise quarterback for very little. We need only look at the John Elway trade for an example of this.

1983: Baltimore Colts trade Elway to the Denver Broncos for Mark Herrman, Chris Hinton, and a 1984 1^st round pick (Ron Solt). The Colts gave in to Elway’s trade demand and didn’t seem to get much value in return. Chris Hinton was a Pro Bowl tackle for the Colts, but neither Herrman or Solt did much in Baltimore/Indianapolis.

The lesson to be learned here is a team needs to get value back for the #1 overall pick and ensure they draft well. It sounds simple and it really is, but the team with the 2012 #1 overall pick could have a chance to improve the team by getting Andrew Luck or improve the team by trading the rights to Luck. With all the hype Luck has gotten around the NFL, I can easily see a team getting several high draft choices for the right to draft him. So public relations aside, Luck refusing to play for a certain team that gets the #1 overall pick isn’t necessarily a bad thing for the team with the #1 overall pick.

Another question that has rumbled around is whether Luck will even come out into the NFL after his junior year. I see no reason why he wouldn’t come out of school and forgo his senior year at Stanford. I believe he is on track to graduate after this year and while passing up NFL money after his sophomore year was very noble, it may not make as much sense after his junior year. If he doesn’t like the team with the #1 overall pick then he could threaten to stay in school or demand a trade, but there’s no guarantee he wouldn’t end up with the very same team in the 2013 draft…or perhaps end up in an even worse situation.

I realize Luck passed up the NFL last year, but I believe this year is very likely to enter the NFL Draft and would have no plans to stay at Stanford for one more year. He has nothing else to prove on the college level, unless Stanford doesn’t win the National Championship and he absolutely wants to win one. As much fun as winning is, that seems a bit extreme in these circumstances though. So I don’t believe under any circumstances Andrew Luck is going to stay at Stanford for his senior year and believe he will enter the 2012 NFL Draft. At the very worst, he can refuse to play for a team and hope he wins the PR battle. Even if he loses the PR battle, once he starts winning in the NFL all will be forgotten anyway.

So let’s all get ready to see the greatest college quarterback in the history of the world and the greatest young NFL quarterback Hall of Fame potential greatest quarterback ever with poise that’s better than any other person in the world and sees the field great and will immediately win a Super Bowl play in the NFL…for whichever team ends up drafting him.