9 comments 2011-2012 NBA Preview

I enjoy making predictions and I enjoy looking back and seeing how wrong/right I was about my predictions. So I figured I would go ahead and do an NBA Preview for the upcoming NBA season. I will make my predictions for the Eastern and Western Conference and then make my prediction for the playoffs and the winner of the NBA Finals. I have to say, I am pretty pumped for the beginning of the NBA season. I am actually happy it is a shortened season since I think the NBA and MLB seasons are probably too long as it is. I realize most NBA fans probably don't feel this way. I'll start first with the Eastern Conference teams. Hopefully I will remember to give each team a record based on 66 games and not 82 games.

Atlantic Division

Boston Celtics

What concerns me most about the Celtics is they are an aging team with a mediocre or average bench. The Celtics' nucleus is 34, 35, 36, and 25 years old. Naturally, the Celtics were looking to trade the 25 year old (Rondo) this offseason. The shortened season will help the Celtics, but they have the same problems now they had before the season began. Lack of big man depth and a need for bench scoring. When Jermaine O'Neal gets hurt again, the Celtics will use Chris Wilcox or Kevin Garnett as their center. That's scary to me. Jeff Green was a huge loss, simply because he could score off the bench. I really like JuJuan Johnson, but I don't know if he is the big guy off the bench the Celtics need. This will be a good team, but I can't help but wonder how much Garnett, Pierce, and Allen will get rested and what this will mean for the Celtics' record.

Record: 37-29

New Jersey Nets

I'm assuming the Nets don't land Dwight Howard. Think the Magic were a bit nervous after reading how Brook Lopez admits he was a lazy rebounder last year? This is the centerpiece for Howard (outside of draft picks)? A guy who says basically, "Fuck it. My teammate seems to be rebounding well, I'll let him take care of it." I may be overreacting a bit, but should this be concerning? Of course, as I write this Brook Lopez is out for six weeks with a foot injury. The Nets have four guys with the last name "Williams" on the roster. I found that interesting. I like MarShon Brooks a lot. He and Anthony Morrow will at least give Deron Williams some wing players to pass the ball to who can score. I'm not real optimistic about the current nature of the roster. This Nets season is going to be judged mostly on what the Nets roster ends up looking like, not what it looks like now.

Record (with the current roster): 28-38

New York Knicks

I like the addition of Tyson Chandler a lot. Mostly because it allows Amar'e Stoudemire to focus more on his strengths...which isn't defending opposing centers. What the Knicks need the most is quality role players around Anthony, Stoudemire, and Chandler. The loss of Billups will hurt, but the Knicks have scorers like Toney Douglas and Landry Fields that can make up backcourt scoring. Other than that, there is a reason the Knicks want Chris Paul or Deron Williams. The Knicks may not win the NBA title this year, but they have improved since last year. Regardles, barring a Stoudemire/Anthony/Chandler injury, this is a Knicks team that will be a dangerous out in the playoffs. If they defend well, they could even make the NBA Finals.

Record: 44-22

Philadelphia 76ers

This is clearly a team on the upswing with a coach that seems to have a ton of energy. Doug Collins seems like the perfect coach to get a young team to play together. Then, once the team ages a little bit, his energy probably doesn't go over as well. Jrue Holiday will probably take another step forward this year and force people to consider him one of the more elite point guards in the NBA. That's the hope at least. They still need a quality big man and either Hawes, Speights or Vucevic has to be competent enough to cover the center spot, right? Let's call them Haeightsevic. Haeightsevic, it sounds like a Bosnian warlord. I like the 76ers this year, mostly because they seem to have two guys looking to take another step forward (Turner, Holiday) and a roster with talent which has a coach that can mold that talent. Hopefully, other players (cough, Thaddeus Young) won't take a step back and the center position gets covered someway, somehow.

Record: 38-28

Toronto Raptors

I'm not sure how to feel about a team whose top draft pick is playing overseas this year. It's not the Raptors fault Valanciunas isn't going to play in America or Canada, but this has to suck for them. Any playoff success for the Raptors this season is dependent upon Ed Davis' increased production and the rest of the NBA teams disbanding completely. Of course if Ed Davis increases his production then he will be taking minutes away from the overpaid Amir Johnson. It's like a Catch 22. Do the Raptors want Ed Davis to take away an overpaid player's minutes or do they want to prove Amir Johnson isn't overpaid? The point of drafting Valanciunas was to put Bargnani at power forward, so he is still stuck at a bad position for him and this team just isn't good enough to compete in a tough division. The good news is the Raptors should have an inside track to the #1 pick in the 2012 NBA Draft, which doesn't seem to contain any foreign-born players. Anthony Davis should start doing research on Toronto fairly soon.

Record: 17-49

Central Division

Chicago Bulls

Maybe this year the Bulls won't force Derrick Rose to do everything on the court. The Bulls needed a shooting guard and they ended up with Rip Hamilton. If this were 2005, I would probably be more excited about this development. He will help the Bulls score points, but the rest of the roster doesn't seem upgraded to me. They aren't going to be the best team in the Eastern Conference this year. Boozer got outperformed in the playoffs by his backup, who really isn't anything other than above average at very best. As good as the Bulls team looked last year, they seem to have really good, but not great, pieces around Derrick Rose. They should look good in the regular season, but unless they find a way to give Derrick Rose an actual #2 scoring option, they won't make the NBA Finals. This is a team that I believe needs to make a trade to compete with the Knicks and Heat in the Eastern Conference.

Record: 40-26

Indiana Pacers

You may ask me why I can go negative on the Bulls, but say positive things about the Pacers, when the Pacers probably need another shooting guard. I just can. I really like the Pacers starting five if David West rebounds from his ACL surgery. The Pacers have a legit center, bench scoring, and a quality starting five. Remember they gave the Bulls fits in the first round last year and the Pacers have improved. They are my sleeper team for this year because they have great bench depth with Hansbrough, Hill, and Jones, plus the starting five. Did you know Paul George grew two inches during the lockout? He's 6'10" now! He is already 6'8" and gets two more inches? That's not fair. I wish I had two more inches of height. I think David West bounces back from his injury and George Hill was a great addition. I believe they will win the Central Division, in fact.

Record: 41-25

Milwaukee Bucks

The Bucks were a terrible scoring team last year. The worst. I did like their draft in getting Tobias Harris and Jon Leuer, but I'm not sure these guys are ready to make a difference this year. Those two guys project as role players on a good team and the Bucks aren't necessarily a good team. The Bucks have a quandary with Brandon Jennings. They need scoring, which Jennings can do, but they also need Jennings to distribute the ball more effectively. For the Bucks to succeed, Jennings needs to score, but distributing the ball better will also help the Bucks succeed. This Bucks team has all the makings of the 10th best team in the Eastern Conference. They play defense well enough to beat bad teams, but can't score enough to beat the good teams.

Record: 29-37

Detroit Pistons

There are teams who know how to rebuild on the fly. One of those teams is not the Detroit Pistons. While I have a massive man-crush on Brandon Knight, I feel like the Pistons already had him on the roster in the form of Rodney Stuckey. Add Will Bynum to the mix and the Pistons are collecting combo guards. I have no idea why they re-signed Tayshaun Prince. To me, that was spending money that could have gone other places on the roster for players that would make a bigger difference in the future than Prince will make. What's even better about that Prince signing is the Pistons overpaid for Charlie Villanueva just a couple summers ago. So the Pistons signed Prince to a contract that not only helped to block a young player, but they also took minutes away from another overpaid free signing they made. Brilliant personnel move. Lawrence Frank will have his hands full trying to prevent the Pistons combo guards from taking shots, when the ball should be going to Greg Monroe or Jonas Jerebko, which is where the ball should be going. I am not a huge fan of Austin Daye, but I thought the Pistons would be better off not paying another veteran big money and seeing what Daye can do with consistent minutes.

Record: 24-42

Cleveland Cavaliers

The Cavs are in complete rebuilding mode. I credit them for taking the chance to rebuild, cut away the fat (literally and figuratively when talking about Baron Davis...speaking of which, how well did that Clippers trade work out for the Cavs? They got cap space and the #1 overall pick), and try to form a nucleus around young players. The best thing the Cavs can do is make trades to give Tristan Thompson, Kyrie Irving, and Omar Casspi more quality players around them in the future. The Cavs need draft picks and cap space. The Cavs will be bad, maybe not as bad as last year, but their season will depend on further steps in the right direction on the personnel side, as well as what progress happens on the court. As much as I have knocked LeBron James for his "Decision," the Cavs team last year was pretty much the team they put around James to win an NBA title. So his decision to leave should not have been that shocking had we known then what we now know.

Record: 13-53

Southeast Division

Atlanta Hawks

I feel like I should give them extra credit for having Magnum Rolle on their roster, but I probably shouldn't do that. It's a great name. It's almost like his parents named him after what they didn't have on their person immediately before he was conceived. Traditionally I am not a huge Hawks fan. They are always above average, but never seem to make that move that moves them up in the Eastern Conference pecking order. The Hawks lost Jamal Crawford and added Tracy McGrady, who has played 80 games in a season...um...never. Can you believe McGrady is only 32 years old? Either way, I think the Eastern Conference is improved. The Hawks are relying on Jeff Teague to run the offense while Hinrich is out. He played well in the playoffs last year, so I will be interested to see how he looks over a full season. I don't know if the Hawks are a bad team, they just haven't improved while other teams in their division have improved.

Record: 37-29

Miami Heat

I see no reason why the Heat won't return to the NBA Finals. If Chris Bosh can continue to accept his position as the third best player on the team and Eddy Curry continues his dominance (just wanted to make sure you were still paying attention) this is a Finals team. I'm personally not happy with Shane Battier that he joined the Heat. I thought he was better than that. He will provide leadership (whatever that is worth), as well as a competent backup at a few positions. Great get for the Heat. Juwan Howard resigned with the Heat in his second attempt to ride Wade/James/Bosh's coattails to an NBA ring. I wish him luck and can't wait to see him talk shit to opposing players as he sits his ass on the bench doing nothing. Hopefully Miami will have a healthy Mike Miller this year and they do have a better bench compared to last year. Less drama and more talent equals more success.

Record: 54-12

Orlando Magic

This is another team whose season will depend upon any trade made or not made. I'm betting Howard is gone, but until he is gone, I will assume the Magic have him on their roster. Glen "Big Baby" Davis feels free now that he isn't shackled behind Kevin Garnett, so that probably means nothing. He is a quality backup and I think more minutes than 30 per game will expose him for what he can't do. This is still a very good Magic team and I see them making the playoffs with their current makeup. Their success will depend on how well they play defense and hit three point shots. They still have good three point shooters and don't really seem like a much different team from last year. Perhaps that's why Howard wants to leave so badly.

Record: 46-20

Washington Wizards

The Wizards are much like the Cavs in that they are full committed to rebuilding. I really liked their draft and think Vesely will at least provide for a few highlight plays with Wall throwing him the ball. Shelvin Mack and Chris Singleton were good draft picks as role players. They won't be stars, but hopefully they will both get minutes this year. I like the direction the Wizards are heading and they could very well surprise us a little bit. As much as I like Kirk Hinrich, I thought the Wizards stole Jordan Crawford from the Hawks. The Wizards are young and talented, but I think they are a year away from making any significant noise. For this year, being exciting to watch should be enough for the time being.

Record: 30-36

Charlotte Bobcats

I don't like the Bismack Biyombo pick still. I don't know exactly why. Maybe it is the fact he was drafted based nearly entirely on potential. Those types of picks always scare me a bit. Corey Maggette should provide scoring, but I get the feeling the Bobcats are relying on a breakout year from Tyrus Thomas. They will probably keep waiting. This is a team that has very little size, no go-to scorer outside of Maggette and Kemba Walker and they look like an expansion team to me for some reason.

Record: 20-46

Eastern Conference Quarterfinals (Yes, I know these are the same teams from last year. What can I say? I don't think much has changed in the Eastern Conference.):

Eastern Conference Quarterfinals:

Miami over Atlanta
New York over Boston
Indiana over Philly
Chicago over Orlando

Eastern Conference Semifinals:

Miami over Chicago
Indiana over New York

Eastern Conference Finals:

Miami over Indiana

Now for the Western Conference...

Northwest Division

Oklahoma City Thunder

On paper, I absolutely adore the Thunder. In reality, I do too. They haven't added much to the roster, but they probably didn't need to. Kendrick Perkins should be healed up by the time the season starts and even though he probably won't get much playing time I thought Reggie Jackson was a great pick for the Thunder. He'll never play this year and probably ended up packaged for a 2nd round pick by midseason, but I like his game. The Thunder's year will depend on how well Perkins is able to recover from his injury and if James Harden takes another step forward. For me, Harden is the perfect #3 scorer on a great team. He can score when he needs to, but doesn't require the ball at all times so as to keep the ball out of the #1 and #2 scorer's hands. Another issue I am interested to see is how the relationship between Westbrook and Durant develops since there seemed to be some issues as to how would take the last shot last year. Otherwise, the Thunder are in great shape.

Record: 50-16

Portland Trailblazers

I really like the addition of Jamal Crawford and it would be incredibly helpful if Greg Oden could stay healthy. If the Blazers big men can stay healthy they will on track for the playoffs. LaMarcus Aldridge is one of the most underrated players in the NBA, even if people do know his name now, and Gerald Wallace will have a chance to make an impact for the entire season. If injuries hold this team back, it would be a shame because they are talented. I would say the Blazers are going to miss Brandon Roy, but they have been playing without him for a while now. I just wish Greg Oden could stay healthy.

Record: 43-23

Denver Nuggets

I don't know why, but the idea of Kenyon Martin and J.R. Smith being stuck in China amuses me for some reason. This would make for a good reality television show. Actually "good" has a whole new meaning when talking about reality television. It wouldn't actually be good, but I think people would watch it. Somewhere we've lost the difference between a "good" show and a show that gets high ratings. Either way, the Nuggets will miss them, but maybe not as much as originally thought since they re-signed Nene and traded for Rudy Fernandez. Even when Martin comes back from China in March, I can see some of his minutes not being immediately available. I like the addition of Andre Miller, but I hope he doesn't take too many minutes away from Ty Lawson, who I think could have a full-on breakout year in 2011-2012. I still like Faried, even if he isn't much better than just a guy who can come in the game and rebound like crazy. There's a place for guys like that. This will be a good Nuggets team, but I don't see them earning more than a 6th seed in the West.

Record: 39-27

Minnesota Timberwolves

The T-Wolves have nowhere to go but up, so I see them going up a little bit this year. They will at least be fun to watch. I have no idea why they signed J.J. Barea. Not a clue. It's not that Barea isn't a decent player, but I thought the point guard position was held down by Rubio and Ridnour. I don't like a team that is rebuilding to sign veterans to play in front of potential franchise cornerstones like Rubio. The T-Wolves have collected enigmas for the past few seasons and outside of Kevin Love it seems like they are counting on Derrick Williams and their enigmas (Beasley, Milicic, Randolph) to hold down the frontcourt. This team will improve if their GM can just get the hell out of the way and not do anything stupid. This is something David Khan has proven time and again he isn't capable of.

Record: 19-47

Utah Jazz

I enjoyed the Jazz's draft. I thought Enes Kanter is the kind of player they should take a chance on and Alec Burks can score, which is something the Jazz will need. Will they be stars? Probably not, but they can contribute to the team if given a chance. I'll be interested to see if Derrick Favors steps up and becomes a complement to Al Jefferson. I doubt it will happen since Favors seems to not enjoy the spotlight and has a history of his hype exceeding his production. I hope he proves me wrong because he should get more minutes than Paul Millsap based simply on talent. This is a rebuilding Jazz team that got stuck in a bad situation last year when Deron Williams indicated he wasn't re-signing with them. How each player performs this year decides which of these players will be a part of the rebuilding effort and which ones will be used to find different parts for the rebuilding. I'm excited to see how this team does. I am predicting it will be a mess.

Record: 25-41

Pacific Division

Los Angeles Lakers

I'm assuming they won't land Dwight Howard. This statement may seem obvious, but the Lakers are really going to miss Lamar Odom. He gave them versatility that is difficult to find. That being said, Josh McRoberts was a good addition. He can play center and power forward. He's like a poor man's poor man Lamar Odom. Still, this is a Lakers team with injury issues and miles on their best player's tires. Bryant is getting older, Fisher is old, Bynum is injury-prone, Gasol is probably insulted by the Lakers attempts to trade him (I have no idea how he'll react or if he will react to the failed trade) and Ron Artest is still insane. I'm not quite on the "Lakers won't make the playoffs" bandwagon yet, but if Bynum gets injured and Gasol continues to be insulted then this may be a tough year. To make matters worse, the Lakers have a new coach and a new system. If Mike Brown felt LeBron James tried to undermine him, he probably won't enjoy Kobe Bryant desperately trying to win another championship and subconsciously comparing everything Mike Brown does to how Phil Jackson would have done it. It looks like at this point trying to rebuild the team with a new superstar through trade may have backfired, at least in the short term. Still, the Lakers are going to try to find a way to add another superstar in the long term.

Record: 40-26

Los Angeles Clippers

I'm not sure if you have heard, but Chris Paul got traded for the Clippers now. This story may have eluded you, but I just wanted you to be aware. I like the trade for Paul and it will make the Clippers much more fun to watch and also makes them a better team. The Clippers are going to miss Eric Gordon because he was their best outside shooting threat. The Clippers probably overpaid for Caron Butler and DeAndre Jordan, but they had no choice in regard to Jordan since even with him on the roster they probably need a bit more height. Having traded Chris Kaman they needed a big man in the middle. The Clippers remind me of a more explosive Chicago Bulls in that they need an upgrade at shooting guard, but at least they are relevant now for something other than Blake Griffin's dunks and Donald Sterlings overt racism.

Record: 45-21

Phoenix Suns

So what's the plan? To use a Bill Simmons-type analogy, the Suns are like a Saturday night where you are having a few beers in preparation for a great night out, but haven't taken a shower in order to go out to the bars. You staying in or going out? Are the Suns rebuilding or trying to squeak another year of contention out of Nash? Well both, actually. I call this plan "failure," because that's what I predict it will be. The Suns aren't good enough to compete for the playoffs, but they also aren't going younger in an effort to rebuild. Steve Nash deserves better than this. He deserves better than to be surrounding with a supporting cast of borderline starters and quality bench players. At least they have a quality center in Marcin Gortat, but this is a team that isn't sure which direction it wants to go and it just isn't fair to run a team this way.

Record: 29-37

Golden State Warriors

The "new" Warriors are like the old Warriors. Cue "Won't Get Fooled Again" on the loudspeakers before every game. The Warriors drafted Klay Thompson because for some reason they believe they need more scoring and need guys who like to shoot. I would really like the Warriors if they could find a way to combine David Lee and Epke Udoh into one person. I'm still not sure why the Warriors took a defensive specialist who can't find the basket so early in the 2010 NBA Draft, but this is a team that drafted another defensive-challenged scorer in the 2011 NBA Draft. So for me, when guessing what the Warriors would do, it is probably the opposite of what I would do. The best thing for the Warriors is to play their younger big men (i.e. I mean "anyone but Kwame Brown) to see if any of them can play the center position with any toughness. I have my money on Udoh. Let's see if he can prove me wrong when saying he can't find the basket.

Record: 25-41

Sacramento Kings

I am tempted to predict the Kings will go 66-0. After all, they have Jimmer Fredette on the roster. Maybe Tyreke Evans and DeMarcus Cousins won't mind if Jimmer shoots 20 times per game. I really like the J.J. Hickson trade and perhaps I just don't understand why the Cavs gave up on him, even if they got Casspi in return. Hickson seems like a guy who would be helpful in the Cavs rebuilding effort. I can't decide if the Kings are on the right track or have good players that won't win games together. Cousins, Hayes, Hickson and Jason Thompson as the backup is a pretty good frontline, as if Evans, Thornton, and Fredette. It may sound silly, but that's a lot of talent, but also a lot of guys who want to prove what kind of statistics they can put up. I question how well the team will gel. The Kings will be interesting, but if only interesting won more games.

Record: 32-34

Southwest Division

San Antonio Spurs

Much like the Celtics, the Spurs have an older core of players they rely upon. I feel differently about the Spurs than I do the Celtics though. I think the Spurs have younger players they can use to take minutes off the legs of Duncan, Parker, and Ginobili. James Anderson (who I didn't like coming out of Oklahoma State and I may end up being wrong about him), Tiago Splitter, and T.J. Ford will be able to effectively limit some of the minutes Duncan, Parker, and Ginobili have to play. I liked Splitter when the Spurs drafted him 20 years ago (or it seems like that) and if Richard Jefferson ever figures out how to be a quality scorer again then it will allow Kawhi Leonard to work his way into the Spurs offense. I think the Spurs have one more year left in them. What bails them out this year is they have put a good team around Duncan, Ginobili, Parker that won't be terrible on the court when giving those three guys a rest.

Record: 48-18

Dallas Mavericks

The Mavericks never had a problem scoring and it was defense that led them to the NBA Title last year. It hurts to lose Tyson Chandler and I don't believe Brendan Haywood will be able to provide the defense Chandler was able to provide. I'm afraid the Mavericks are back to being that really good team that can't win a tough playoff series. Of course, I predicted they would lose the Blazers in the first round and they ended up winning the NBA Title. So what do I know? I am also concerned about the post-NBA Title/lockout celebrating the Mavs have been doing. It sounds stupid, but Dirk admits he isn't in playing shape quite yet, so I can't help but wonder if he is the only Maverick not in playing shape quite yet. Lamar Odom was a great addition for a relatively cheap price, but this isn't a NBA Finals-type team without a better defensive center. Plus, the Mavericks now have Vince Carter on the roster, so that's pretty much the kiss of death in my mind.

Record: 44-22

Memphis Grizzlies

The Grizzlies are the "it" team this year because of their run last year in the NBA playoffs. I don't know if I really trust Mike Conley Jr. to be the starting point guard he needs to be. Maybe last year was his breakout year and I am wrong. He is only 24 years old after all. Otherwise, some people may not realize it, but Marc Gasol actually took a step back last year from his 09-10 season. He really stepped it up in the playoffs, so perhaps that bodes well. I worry a bit about the bench, especially with Darrell Arthur out. I feel like Zach Randolph will need to step it up if the Grizzlies will succeed since they don't have as much height as I wish they had. I think they are a playoff team, but I still don't know if I trust them. How's that for hedging?

Record: 38-28

Houston Rockets

I feel bad for the Rockets. They were trying to long-term plan what the team would look like and David Stern stepped in and stopped the Paul trade, not allowing them to get Pau Gasol from the Lakers and clearing some cap space. Who really cares if the NBA prevents NBA teams from executing a long-term plan? No big deal, right? I hate Hasheem Thabust and Jordan Hill is only a step above Thabust. So the Rockets have no center. When I said the Mavericks needed a better defensive center and the Grizzlies had height issues, I meant that, but the Rockets are in worse shape. They no one I would trust to play center for more than 20 minutes per game. Luis Scola is better off at power forward. So I think the Rockets will have a much better chance once they surround their scorers with an actual center. I'm not sure Samuel Dalembert counts either, but he is a start.

Record: 30-36

New Orleans Hornets

I don't believe the Hornets will be as bad as anticipated. I still don't believe they will make the playoffs. I would have the Hornets in the playoffs if the Lakers-Rockets-Hornets trade went down, but I'm not confident enough at this point to predict a playoff spot for them. I can't figure out, outside of Eric Gordon, where points are going to come from on this team. When Trevor Ariza is the #2 scorer on your team, that's not a good sign. I like the height this team has and I like that Al-Farouq Aminu may get minutes to determine if he sucks or not. I just don't know how they will score, but at least it seems like they are on the right track. This season is all about deciding which players will be keepers and which will be moved to clear cap space for the future.

Record: 32-34

Playoff teams: Oklahoma City, Portland, Denver, Los Angeles Clippers, Los Angeles Lakers, San Antonio, Dallas, Memphis.

Western Conference Quarterfinals:

Oklahoma City over Memphis
San Antonio over Denver
Los Angeles Clippers over Los Angeles Lakers
Portland over Dallas

Western Conference Semifinals:

Oklahoma City over Portland
San Antonio over Los Angeles Clippers

Western Conference Finals:

Oklahoma City over San Antonio

NBA Finals:

Miami Heat over Oklahoma City

It's boring, I know. It is also how I feel. Feel free to call me stupid in the comments.