11 comments It Seems Bill Simmons Friday NFL Picks Column Has Not Improved Considerably

I've been asked a lot (three times is now "a lot" by the way) recently why I don't write more about Bill Simmons columns on this blog. I really should and I want to, but it's a matter of logistics really. He usually posts his Friday article around 2pm at the earliest and at that point I am too lazy to write anything more before the weekend. When the next week starts I am focused on MMQB, TMQ, and any other thing that may have happened during the weekend. Bill's NFL picks columns only have a shelf life of one week since they are essentially picks for that weekend's games, so it causes an issue for me because I tend to accumulate articles and post them leisurely. Basically Bill has done a great job of foiling me by preying on my laziness on Friday afternoons. He posts something then so I have less of a chance of getting to it. It's all about me, don't you know?

Having said that, I figured I would try to stay somewhat ahead of the curve for a week and post Bill's Friday picks before his next picks are posted. Bill has basically stopped writing any type of column on Friday for his NFL picks and has made his Friday "column" essentially a mailbag. I'm not sure whether to call him lazy or credit for him realizing he is running out of column ideas. 

Let's get to the various emails sent to Bill from SimmonsClones, which are a group of people who have no other goal in life than to have Bill answer their email and thereby give them validation of their existence in this world.

Things I've given up on through five-plus weeks of the NFL season: Pittsburgh, Philly and Green Bay being contenders (they aren't); New Orleans or San Diego doing anything in 2012 (they won't); Detroit's special teams; Denver's running backs; Arizona's offensive line; St. Louis's receivers; Buffalo's everything; Mike McCarthy and Mike Tomlin in tight games; Houston's philosophy of running Arian Foster into the ground; Ron Rivera, Norv Turner, Chan Gailey and Pat Shurmur in any game; Arizona's sleeper chances; the Buffalo/Oakland/Detroit/New Orleans/Tennessee defenses;

See what I mean? So much changes so fast in the NFL, Bill's column has a limited shelf life. Green Bay showed they are a contender, Buffalo won this week, Pat Shurmur and Chan Gailey's team won, and the Oakland/Buffalo/Tennessee defenses had a pretty good week.

any QB named "Matt," "Mark" or "Mike" who doesn't have the last name "Ryan" or "Schaub"; 28-year-old rookie QBs;

Weeden is 29 years old now.

Things I'm wavering back and forth on: Could Philly and Seattle contend if they promoted their backup QBs?

I think Seattle possibly could, but my faith in Trent Edwards and Nick Foles isn't very high. I'm all about Mike Vick losing his starting job, but I don't trust the guys playing behind Vick to help the Eagles win games. Of course, the Eagles did fire Juan Castillo for having the audacity of being an offensive line coach hired by Andy Reid to coach the defense, so everything must be fixed now in Philadelphia.

Let's hit the Week 6 picks mailbag, sponsored as always by Dr. Moreau …

Last week in his mailbag Bill did a whole "Island of Dr. Moreau" riff that was about as interesting as it sounds like it was.

Q: You can't say the Turkish movie death scene is the best ever, not when Charles Bronson's The Evil That Men Do bar scene is out there. Watch Bronson defend a much larger man with gigantism over a dame's safety — he knocks the guy to the ground, puts his boot on his throat, and two-hands his old peckeroo to death. Now, my question is, why isn't there more dong-grab death in Hollywood anymore? You tell me why women wouldn't swoon over a man who chokes a man to death by grabbing his junk?
—Mark R Sheehan, Quincy

I wonder if Mark from Quincy has a relative or friend named "Tommy?"

Oh, and there aren't many dong-grab death scenes in movies anymore because generally men either don't leave their dongs exposed enough to be grabbed or are too far away to be dong-grabbed. Not to get in an analysis of a dong-grab, but a man would have to be standing still or in an exposed position to have his dong-grabbed. Perhaps in the middle of a fight there could be a sudden dong-grab, but men generally protect their privates very well. I'm also not sure women would swoon over a man who chokes a man to death by grabbing his penis either. Mostly the women would wonder why this man felt the need to grab the other man's dong in the process of killing him. I can imagine a conversation between two women swooning over a man who chokes another man to death by grabbing his penis.

(Woman #1) "I love watching Ryan Martin do pretty much anything in a movie. It doesn't matter to me what he is doing as long as I can watch him."

(Woman #2) "Ryan Martin. Who is he again?"

(Woman #1) "He's the guy who choked that another guy to death in "Death Match 2" by grabbing his penis."

(Woman #2) "Oh yeah! I know him. He is easy on the eyes isn't he? Especially the way he instantly grabbed that other man's penis and choked him to death. That was so hot. I love it when one man attempts to injure another man by grabbing his penis or any time a hot guy makes a move for another man's private parts. I'm having hot flashes just thinking about it."

SG: It's a great point. Just remember, these things come in waves in Hollywood. You know how we're on a run of "found video footage" horror movies right now? We could easily go on a run of dong-grab death movies any year now.

Since action movies are generally directed towards men I'm not sure it is a good idea to include too many dong-grab death scenes. It seems like this would chase part of the target market away. But I'm not a super-smart producer of television shows like Bill Simmons is, so what do I know?

Colts (+3.5) over JETS

Q: I loved a tease with the Packers all week, and got completely talked out of it after hearing Chuck Pagano's leukemia story. Did the Colts have any business at all beating them? Absolutely not. But every time something like this happens, the underdog ends up winning. Remember the Jets winning their season opener on the 10th anniversary of 9/11. (You might as well have changed the Cowboys' name to the Al Qaeda Cowboys for this game, because if the Jets had lost, the terrorists would have won.) Remember the Saints' first game back in the Superdome after Katrina? (23-3 Saints win over Falcons.) Never underestimate the "The Tragedy Factor," it's the biggest lock in sports betting.
—Doug Raney, Atlanta

Bill will end up agreeing this could be a theory. It's a great theory other than it not being true. Again, Joe Philbin's son died last year and the Packers ended up losing their home playoff game to the Giants that very same week. Where was this "tragedy factor" last year when this happened? Not to mention, as tragic as Chuck Pagano's leukemia story may be, I don't think even he would compare that as a tragedy on par with Hurricane Katrina and 9/11. It seems like his diagnosis has a much smaller "tragedy factor" than the death of thousands of Americans at the hand of terrorists and an entire city flooding leaving thousands without home and water, while having to completely rebuild their lives. I don't feel like these three events should be lumped together into the same "tragedy factor." Not to mention, plenty of tragedies occur and sports teams in that city don't start winning games after the tragedy occurs. Otherwise the state of Colorado would have quite a few championship trophies at this point.

It's almost like creating a set of rules to govern gambling in Bill's columns hasn't been working for ten years now and probably isn't a pursuit worthy of his time anymore.

SG: There appears to be real legs to this "Chuckstrong" story line, which is great on a macro level (it's inspiring) and fascinating from a football level. Could their coach's health issues band the Colts together and push them toward 10 wins and a playoff spot?

Bill is all about "ubuntu" and a group of players banding together and achieving something extraordinary through sports because they were inspired to do so. Basically, Bill believes sports are entirely exemplified through the lyrics to the song "One Moment in Time." The Colts improbable playoff run, while inspired by the loss of their coach, did seemed to come to a screeching halt this past weekend.

Q: Following the 666th installment of Monday Night Football, Mark Sanchez has 6 TD's, 6 interceptions, 6.6 YPA, and most remarkably a passer rating of 66.6. Will this game inevitably mark the height of his Satanic villainy when he is Tebow's foil in Fourth and God II: God Willing?
—Blake N., Sioux Falls

SG: Roughly 431,345 people e-mailed me those satanic Sanchez numbers this week, 

This tells me roughly 431,345 people need to go find some friends somewhere else to share this information with. When your first reaction to hearing these statistics is, "I have to email Bill Simmons and tell him about this," then you probably have some serious social issues or crave Bill's acceptance a little too much.

I'm totally against the idea of crossing Fourth and God 2 with The Omen or The Devil's Advocate and making it a combination sports movie/horror movie.

(Follow-up note: Grantland editor Dan Fierman read this and vehemently disagreed that we don't need evil Sanchez for the sequel, arguing, "He's the perfect foil! Tebow goes to New York, basically Sodom and Gomorrah combined, then conquers the town only to find that Satan is actually lurking in his own locker room. It's Rosemary's Baby meets Rudy!" Crap, he might be right.

Bill realizes he can edit this stuff out of his column, doesn't he? We don't need to read about Bill changing his mind. Of course if Bill edited this part out then he wouldn't get the chance to do some hilarious riffs like,

I nominate that Sanchez drops the satanic wrinkle and just goes back to making snide Tebow comments and sleeping with celebrity cougars.

Absolutely hilarious. If you think Bill is going to edit his column in a way that doesn't show off just how damn hilarious and creative he is, well then you haven't read a Bill Simmons column before. They are mostly about him, even the mailbags, which by definition should be a little bit about Bill's readers and their ideas. If a reader makes a funny joke or a creative observation then Bill has to improve upon this idea or contribute his own idea as well. He wants us to know he is always the funniest and most creative guy in the room.

Q: I work in the finance dept of a very conservative Fortune 100 Company. It's 8:40 on Tuesday morning and I hear a very distinct TEEEBOOOWWW!!!! Shout from across the floor that is then echoed by 3 or 4 response TEEEBOOOWWWs from different directions.

I know what this reader is going to ask and the answer is, yes, you do need to find a new job with less douche-like co-workers.

There is no chance any other athlete elicits this reaction following a 5 carry, 19-yard performance. Isn't that all the Jets need to know to put the wheels in motion for Fourth and God II?
—Pat, Hartford

I find it very cute how Bill's SimmonsClones write into him by reinforcing in Bill's mind that his ideas are so creative and exemplary. Bill's readers are like a cartoon side-kick that only serves the purpose of telling another character how great his ideas are. I can hear SimmonsClones saying, "You're right boss, that's a great line!" as Bill stares at one of them dismissively. Bill's mailbags seem to mainly consist of his readers reminding him of how great his ideas are and Bill thinking of more ideas his readers can fawn over in his next mailbag. It's like one big circle-jerk.

Q: Ron Rivera reminds me of when you play that late night Madden game against your buddy who is on the verge of passing out. His guys are moving, but not really. His play calling is obvious and conservative because he is just "Asking Madden." Instead of saying "Eff it, I'm hammered, it's late, let's go for the W any way possible," he plays "not to lose."...Every year I convince myself in the offseason things like "Matt Moore has the intangibles, this is our year" or "Charles Godfrey is about to step on the scene in a major way" …and then usually 2-3 weeks into the regular season I question not only my Panthers fanhood, but my priorities in life. Help me Bill, help me.
—Chip, Hoboken, NJ

If anything should make Chip question his priorities in life, it should not be which NFL team he cheers for, but the following issues I see with this email:

1. He bases a quarterback having a good season based solely on "intangibles."
2. He writes into Bill whining about his favorite team.
3. He asks for Bill's help in dealing with his favorite team in the email, like a whiny little person would do.
4. The mere fact he is writing into Bill, this alone should make him question his priorities in life.
5. He uses a comparison to "Madden" rather than just saying how he feels or what he means, which is something Bill Simmons does all of the time.

Q: I'm sitting in my dark basement after the Browns blew a 14 point lead (21 if you took the points) to the Giants and realized three things.
1. The Browns will have the 1st pick in the 2013 draft.
2. The Browns will draft QB Geno Smith.
3. The Browns essentially traded Julio Jones for Brandon Weeden … our 29 year old backup QB.
… huffing leaded paint never sounded so good.
—Jeremy, Cleveland

SG: I thought Jeremy was kidding, but looked it up just to be sure...Just for fun, can we pay-per-view a phone call of Cleveland's Mike Holmgren calling Atlanta and seriously offering Taylor, Little, Marecic and Weeden for Julio Jones, with all proceeds going to Chuckstrong?

I don't know how big of a Browns fan this drama queen is, but Brandon Weeden is the Browns starting quarterback, not their backup quarterback. If he is ignoring the acquisition of Phil Taylor and Greg Little then he can't be that big of a Browns fan. These two guys have contributed to the Browns team over the past two seasons. Not to mention, it would be great to have Julio Jones on the roster, but who would be throwing him the football? Colt McCoy? It helps Julio Jones' productivity that he has Matt Ryan throwing him the football. Don't overlook this important part of Jones' success that he has a Pro Bowl quarterback throwing him the ball and has Tony Gonzalez and Roddy White helping to take pressure off of him.

Q: Last week saw a major turning point in Atlanta sports history. After seeing one of the worst calls in baseball history, during a sudden death playoff game, Atlanta fans reacted the way Philadelphia/Boston/New York fans would have reacted: by chucking shit onto the field. It was the wrong thing to do, of course, for safety and other reasons. But at the same time, I felt proud of my city. Atlanta fans are notoriously soft, not nearly as passionate as other fan bases. But raining trash on the field showed that we cared, we really cared.
—Dan, Atlanta

SG: I'm a Red Sox fan who defended when we threw stuff on the field after the umps screwed us in Game 5 of the 1999 ALCS at Fenway, so don't expect me to judge you or throw any stones from this glass house. But I'd say Atlanta's turning point started earlier with the Joe Johnson trade...Once you dumped him and his undumpable contract, you had one of those "Will Ferrell running down the street naked in Old School" moments and it never really stopped.

Apparently it is "forced pop culture analogy time" in Bill's mailbag. I really wish he would give us a heads-up before he forces an analogy into a column. This one really snuck up on me. Bill can't go without a pop culture analogy in his columns, but what once felt like natural analogies that were clever have quickly become forced and much less creative. He ends up shoehorning an analogy into a column as if he is contractually obligated to do so.

Q: Can you please stop coddling the Raiders? I love your continued insistence that the Raiders 35-13 loss in Week 2 to Miami was because 'they were wearing their black jerseys in the Miami sun'. Really? You are better than that. What's the blowout excuse this week? The air conditioning was too low in the Georgia Dome? You can't put any lipstick on this pig. White jerseys, black jerseys … The Raiders have lost 35-13 and 37-6 on the road this year. When the Falcons take the Silver and Black behind the woodshed this weekend, let's all agree it's because Carson Palmer just isn't that good, okay?

Falcons fans are so funny. They are like N.C. State fans in that way. You give them a little bit of success and then it completely goes to their head and they can't figure out why their team isn't winning back-to-back championships. The Falcons seemingly haven't played a very difficult schedule yet and their fans are starting to get cocky and mean. In regard to the comment about taking the Raiders behind the woodshed, the Raiders almost beat the Falcons at home this week. Not that Falcons fans care, this just makes them think their team is even better than originally thought because they won the game, didn't they!

SG: Aren't we overdue for the defining Carson Palmer BQBL game? I'm going all out with this pick: Atlanta 55, Oakland 17.

Well, Bill was only 30+ points off from what the final score really was. That's not so bad, is it?

Q: As I was watching the A's/Tigers playoff game, I realized baseball is the only sport where the coaches/managers wear their team uniforms.

You just realized this? How old are you, nine years old? Why is your mom letting you use the computer at this late hour?

How much funnier would all the other sports be if the coaches had to wear the uniforms? If you could choose 2 coaches each from the NFL and NBA that had to wear their team uniforms, who would you pick?

File this under the same heading as the "why do we drive on a parkway, but park in a driveway" observations that have been played out at this point. Needless to say, Bill answers the question and one of his answers is "Andy Reid." Bill has been riding Andy Reid jokes for almost his entire ESPN career.

Regardless, I'm worried about this game: Seattle's defense and special teams are significantly better than New England's defense and special teams. We already know they love playing home. The Pats just slapped together three of the greatest offensive halves in the history of football: 80 points, 10 touchdowns and fifty-one first downs … there's just no way that can keep going; they're due to regress a little, right? There's some serious "Pete Carroll Revenge Game" potential here, as dopey as that sounds. And after torturing me for five weeks, wouldn't it be fitting if my pick for the NFC's Super Bowl QB (Russell Wilson) ended up torturing my favorite team?

I would normally give Bill credit for writing this, but he is so negative about his favorite teams sometimes he ends up being right at some point.

Q: Just broke out Madden 12 for the first time in 4 months. Fired up a Cardinals franchise. Larry Fitzgerald breaks his collar bone. Who tackled him? BERNARD KARMELL POLLARD
—Jon H, Mountain View, CA

Gee, this doesn't sound like something Jon H. from Mountain View, California completely made up in order to write in to Bill and bait him with a "BERNARD KARMELL POLLARD" joke. Jon H. is actually smart because he knows if you massage Bill's ego and remind him of how smart he is then you have a good chance of getting your comment published. Seriously though, if this story is even real, who writes in to Bill Simmons and tells him this? Was Jon H. sitting there and saw Bernard Pollard hurt Larry Fitzgerald, then immediately have to run to the keyboard and email Bill about what happened? Why do SimmonsClones rely so much on Bill's affirmation and tell him such needless things? It honestly disturbs me how they seem to crave his acceptance.

SG: This isn't the first "Bernard Karmell Pollard injured one of my Madden guys" e-mail I've gotten.

Now I'm just getting sad. There is more than one person who thinks to email Bill Simmons about the results of a video game?

Did the Madden people put something into the game that made Pollard much more likely to injure opponents during franchise seasons?

No, your readers are liars who make up a story in an effort to get you to acknowledge their comment and thereby validate their existence.

Q: My boyfriend and I are pretty thrilled by your "noodle arm" Peyton observations.

Great. Now there is a risk of a pregnancy between these two people and those who enjoy reading Bill's columns could multiply. Something needs to be done about this. Perhaps sterilization?

Q: Have defenses figured Rodgers out and how to stop him? Was his year-and-a-half ridiculous run a fluke? He seems off in almost every aspect: his throws aren't pinpoint, his decision-making is questionable, he's back to holding the ball too long and he locks onto receivers too early in the play. Did Tom Brady ever go through a phase like what Rodgers is going through?
—Jarrett, Milwaukee

Jarrett, I think Aaron Rodgers would respond to this by saying, "Shhh...."

This is the part where Bill overreacts to Aaron Rodgers having a bad start to the season (well, a bad start for Aaron Rodgers).

SG: It's not a fluke — he misses Greg Jennings,

Rodgers threw for six touchdown passes on Sunday night.

he doesn't have any semblance of a running game,

This is true, though Alex Green has run for 128 yards over the last two weeks.

Rodgers will be fine. Just not this week. I say Houston trounces Green Bay (Rodgers's rock-bottom moment), then the Packers right the ship with three straight wins over St. Louis, Jacksonville and Arizona heading into the bye.

Green Bay sort of trounced Houston. Maybe Rodgers rock-bottom moment were his performances over the last few weeks?

Still don't think Green Bay is a playoff team, though — don't like their mojo this year.

Oh, Bill doesn't like their "mojo." I remove all my criticism of Bill when discussing Aaron Rodgers. I didn't know he didn't like the Packers "mojo." This seems like such definitive proof the Packers aren't a playoff team that Bill does not need to explain any further.

SG: I can't pick the Broncos violently enough. You're preaching to the choir. And for the record, Denver follows this game with a bye week, then hosts New Orleans, goes to Cincy and Carolina, hosts San Diego, goes to Kansas City, hosts Tampa and plays Oakland on Thursday night. Could we really see Mr. Noodle taking a 9-3 record into that Oakland game? Absolutely!

Is calling Peyton Manning "Mr. Noodle" or some other version of using the word "Noodle" to describe Manning's arm now going to become "a thing?" It's not really that good of a nickname and it feels very forced. Of course, one SimmonsClone has already written in telling Bill how great the nickname is, so I guess there's not much hope at this point for Bill to get negative reinforcement from his cult-like followers this isn't a very good nickname.

Pass me the grated cheese and the red pepper: We're riding Peyton's linguini arm these next few weeks.

Imagine if Rick Reilly wrote this sentence (which Reilly would never do because he is a Broncos fan and is a starfucker). I would bet Bill's readers would think this is a terrible piece of writing, but because it is Bill who is writing linguini-related analogies to Peyton Manning's arm, it's brilliance has no equal.