16 comments MMQB Review: Peter Does Some Playoff Handicapping Edition

Yesterday was perhaps one of the most boring last weeks of the regular season that I can remember in the NFL. I imagine if the NFL went to a 18 game schedule the last week would have been more exciting because there would have been 2 more games to play, but I also believe we would have ended up with possibly even more separation in the good and bad teams in the NFL, so Week 19 of the fictional 18 week season would still be boring. That's another strike against an 18 game NFL schedule in my mind. Nothing gets me less pumped up than to see 3 of the 4 playoff games that are going to be played next week match up the same teams that played this week. This doesn't excite me too much.

Today Peter decides rather than doing some handicapped football analysis he is going to do some playoff handicapping. It's about as good as it sounds.

Now that was a weird day. Sad with the devastating knee injury to one of the real poster children for everything that is good about the NFL, Wes Welker.

Everything good about the NFL in Peter's world: being white, being gritty, and playing for New England.

What are the odds of the same defender being at the epicenter of the temporary demise of two true New England heroes?

That was pretty creepy. Someone get Dan Shaughnessy on the phone to write a book about the curse of Pollard. He could sell millions of copies of this book. Then Bill Simmons can mock those people that believe in the curse of Pollard, but write a book capitalizing on the ending of the curse of Pollard to make himself a few bucks.

(Quick summation of Shaughnessy's book) "We're so cursed! No other team in the NFL is as cursed as we are. We have had 2 major injuries in the past 2 years! We are the only team to have lost two important players in a span of two years. Please buy this book in hardcover and paperback."

Other quickies from the day, and from very early this morning: When the Redskins' charter returned from San Diego after another dispiriting loss in the dispiriting two-year tenure of Jim Zorn, the team put him out of his misery, firing him with a year left on his contract. There's little doubt the team wants to hire Mike Shanahan. Owner Dan Snyder wasted no time in laying the groundwork.

Hey, maybe Snyder should hire Joe Gibbs again!

I said on NBC last night that this isn't going to be Black Monday (black because so many coaches usually lose their jobs on the day after the season), but rather Charcoal Gray Monday ...

Ba-da-(stabs self in eye with pencil)

I have some picks sure to rival my Stewart Bradley middle linebacker choice last year, and sure to make you nail me with some outraged Tweets.

Peter wants us to nail him with some outraged Tweets. 5 years ago this would have sounded like a sexual move you try on a freshman, but now I know exactly what he is talking about.

Dallas (NFC 3 seed). Cowboys are classic hot team at the right time, with a mature quarterback, Romo, and a bookend pass-rush team, Anthony Spencer and DeMarcus Ware, that's bordering on Freeney/Mathis in its impact this season.

I am telling you, this is the year Dallas wins their 1st playoff game since 1996. Normally I would be outraged and taking cheap shots at Dallas because I traditionally don't like them, but this year for some reason I actually wouldn't mind seeing them win a few playoff games. Maybe if they made the Super Bowl my retro-mid-90's hatred of the Cowboys would come back to visit. That would be the same time the annoying Cowboys fans in my area call up talk radio to taunt the entire state of North Carolina on how awesome the Cowboys are.

I want to see Jared Allen come out and dominate a game, which he hasn't done since a three-sack day at Green Bay Nov. 1.

Let me do a quick summation of Jared Allen's "Pro Bowl season" that wasn't a Pro Bowl season.

Sacks against Green Bay: 7.5 sacks (2 games)

Sacks against the rest of the NFL: 7 sacks (14 games)

Sacks before November 1 (not including Green Bay games): 3 sacks (6 games)

Sacks since November 1: 4 sacks (8 games)

Sorry, but simply because Jared Allen had 2 good games against Green Bay doesn't mean he is a Pro Bowler. He's should not be at least, so I don't know how he made it.

New Orleans (NFC 1 seed).

We'll see. This team's a total X factor.

You mean the #1 seed in the NFC is an X factor? I wouldn't think this could be true at all! How would the best team in the NFC by record, and how they perform in the playoffs, be considered the team that could alter the playoff landscape? This is an amazing, yet fairly obvious statement.

They'll fill his spot with Julian Edelman, who is a Welker clone -- the same body type, the same frenetic quickness after the catch.

He had like 10 catches for 103 yards yesterday. He's not Wes Welker but this is exactly why you have backups. Welker went down and the Patriots were smart enough to have a backup who can do a reasonable Welker impersonation. This is what good teams do.

Coaches don't want to hear about this ... except one from the AFC who I spoke with late Sunday night and who shall remain anonymous. He was concerned that even though the Jets could well have been one of the best six teams in the AFC at season's end, they got an unfair advantage by playing two teams in the last two weeks that already had playoff spots secured and weren't playing the way they'd play a regular game.

I am the type of person that thinks a team should play all of its starters during a playoff run to keep the team on its toes and make sure the momentum the team has built up can be kept in the playoffs. There's something to be said for a team like the Giants of 2007 who barely make it in the playoffs and were sharp because nearly every game has been a playoff game for them down the stretch. I think playing the starters regularly even after clinching a division helps the continuity and momentum of a team.

(I have changed my mind on this issue at times and sometimes my opinion differs when it comes to the makeup of each team. For example, I think a team like the Colts need to keep momentum, while a team like the Vikings may not. Or I could be rambling right now.)

Regardless, the NFL can never make everything fair. Is it fair that San Diego gets to play in a shitty division? Is it fair that Arizona is in the same division as two teams that are in a rebuilding mode? I don't think we can make everything fair in the NFL. Is it fair that New Orleans who went 8-8 last year got to play a 4th place schedule and played the likes of Detroit and St. Louis in their two games they play against 4th place teams in other divisions?

The NFL is never going to be completely fair, I don't think the NFL should force a coach to play his starters in any game. I think the coach should play his starters but it should be a team decision, not an NFL decision.

Fans would be buying a 10-game season-ticket (eight regular-season games, two exhibitions), and four of them, under my scenario, would be games the Colts were playing to keep guys healthy, not to win. Fans already detest paying for the preseason. Paying for more games like the preseason is absurd.

I think it's a good idea to have each team intending to sit starting players for some or all of the game have to make that announcement on Friday, as a show of good will to the fans who pay good money to watch the games.

This doesn't really help season ticket holders because they have already paid for the tickets and will have no chance at recouping the money they put out since it will be nearly impossible to sell the tickets to a game where the starters aren't playing.

I realize the Welker injury is going to affect this debate. It should. It's a valid concern, losing valuable players to injury in games you don't have to win.

Those people who think the Colts did the right thing by sitting Manning last week are going to use the Welker injury as the reason for a team to sit its starters, and that is valid, but that's also not the point. The point is that injuries can occur at any point and obviously preventing injuries is always a good thing, but many times you can't prevent an injury. It's like Brian Billick said yesterday when he was calling the Carolina-New Orleans game, teams can't play scared in the NFL. Injuries happen, you just have to hope your team has been built to withstand that injury. Playing scared is the best lose your momentum and edge before the playoffs begin...at least in my mind.

I had respect for the Oakland punter before Sunday's game; I already thought he was the best punter in Raider history before Sunday, and that's not to slight Ray Guy.

Yet by saying Lechler is the best punter in Raiders history, Peter is giving him this title over Ray Guy, who is generally agreed to be the best punter in the history of the NFL. That is actually slighting Ray Guy by making this statement.

2. Indianapolis (14-2). Watching Curtis Painter, you can see why everyone in the Indy organization is so paranoid about Peyton Manning getting hurt.

I would say no matter who the backup to Peyton Manning is, unless that was Drew Brees or Tom Brady, the Colts are going to be paranoid about Peyton Manning getting hurt. Wouldn't this just give more ammunition to the belief that Manning is the MVP?

4. Green Bay (11-5).
5. Minnesota (12-4).
6. Philadelphia (11-5).
7. New Orleans (13-3).

I don't know how Peter can rank the Saints below these three other teams simply because these other teams played their starters for the entire season, while the Saints didn't play their starters yesterday...especially when the Saints have already beaten one of these teams handily. It's nitpicky, but this is why power rankings are useless. They teach us nothing.

Quote of the Week I

"We're dangerous. You have to be able to run the football this time of year, and you have to be able to play defense, and we can do that better than any team in the league. That gives us a chance in every game, no matter who we play.''
-- Jets coach Rex Ryan after the 37-0 shutout of the Bengals that sent New York into the playoffs.

I don't recall who said it last week, but a sportswriter suggested a team would want to play the Jets in the 1st round of the playoffs. I disagreed. The Jets are #1 in the NFL in rushing and #1 in defense. I know they have a rookie quarterback but this isn't a team I would want to play in the playoffs.

"Master Lock Revis has put a lot of great receivers on him this season. That will not happen this upcoming [week]. Darrelle Revis couldn't cover me in a brown paper bag on a corner of a Manhattan street in a phone booth. It's impossible.''
-- Cincinnati receiver Chad Ochocinco, five days before being held to no catches against the Jets' corner Sunday night at the Meadowlands.

Chad told Bob Costas he'd change his name back to Chad Johnson if Revis shut him down Sunday night. Your move, Chad. Asked by a reporter after the game if he still planned to change his last name back to "Johnson,'' OchoCinco said, "Child, please.''

I couldn't help but think that Chad Johnson was hedging just a bit when he started limping in warm-ups and then he left the game with an injury. I know he was hurt, but I think it is pretty convenient he got hurt during a game when he wasn't backing up his talk. Yeah, he was hurt, but do I think he may have limped a little more to give himself an out? Yes, I do.

Coach of the Week

John Fox, head coach, Carolina.

With nothing to play for the past three weeks, Fox's team went 3-0 against teams that finished a combined 33-15 (Vikings, Giants, Saints). Though the Saints didn't come to play Sunday in Charlotte, Carolina beating three teams 90-26 when the games meant only pride is a sign Fox has the attention of every player in his locker room. A superb end-of-season run by one of the game's best coaches.

I am glad Peter recognized this. On a personal note, I am not a huge John Fox fan for reasons I could write 10,000 words about, but if Carolina doesn't at least extend him one more year (he has one year left on his contract) they are idiots. The players play for him and they are rarely ever out of a game. Reward him for this.

MVP Watch

I don't like putting five quarterbacks on my final list of the year, but I had to put the five most indispensable guys here ... and if I had to put a sixth, I'd likely put Romo ahead of Darrelle Revis and Chris Johnson.

I like how Peter acts as if he doesn't have a choice to put 5 quarterbacks in his MVP Watch. It is his list which he makes by giving his opinion. He can put whoever he wants in the MVP Watch. I don't see how Chris Johnson isn't as valuable to the Titans as Brett Favre is to the Vikings. The Titans started playing well this year when Johnson started playing well, while the Vikings struggled generally when the run game was stopped (which would indicate Adrian Peterson is as valuable as Favre or at least a running game is as valuable as Favre)...for the last time this year, THE VIKINGS MADE THE PLAYOFFS WITHOUT FAVRE LAST YEAR!!

4. (tie) Aaron Rodgers, QB, Green Bay. Poetic justice, isn't it, that Rodgers pulls even with Favre in the final week of the year. Don't know if anyone else will do it today, but I think it's due: Eighteen months ago, Ted Thompson and Mike McCarthy got roundly taken to the cleaners in the court of public opinion, but now that Rodgers has turned into a top-flight quarterback, I just think it's time to say those guys knew what they were doing.

I don't know where this "court of public opinion" is located, but it's not located at this blog. Last year it was pretty clear choosing Aaron Rodgers over Brett Favre was a smart long term move for the Packers. I think I only wrote about this everyday. The only ones who didn't want to recognize Rodgers over Favre was a good move weren't Packers fans, but Favre fans, or were so hung up on Brett Favre being in a Packers uniform there is no way they could be rationally convinced.

Player	Years	W-L	Pct.	Yards	TD	Int.	Sacks	Rush Yds-TD	Rating
Favre	1995-96	24-8	.615	8,312	77	26	73	317-5	97.7
Rodgers	2008-09	17-15	.642	8,237	58	20	84	523-9	98.5

They're about equally efficient. Favre was more explosive and won more. Rodgers ran better and was slightly more accurate. If you compared apples to apples -- Favre's first two starting seasons (not his first two MVP seasons, but his first two shaky starting seasons) and Rodgers' same two -- the one thing that would stick out is Rodgers' plus-37 TD-to-interception differential and Favre's plus-0.

I am not saying Aaron Rodgers is going to be as good as Brett Favre when his career is over, but he is off to a good start in my mind. And no, the Aaron Rodgers Fan Club doesn't charge dues and I am not officially a member yet, but I am thinking of signing up.

A cheap travel note. It involves only walking -- 25 minutes on New Year's Day from my apartment in Boston's South End to Fenway Park. But that was the walk each way to the NHL Winter Classic, Bruins versus Flyers, and it was a great day. First, the best thing was standing on the field while the teams walked out for warmups. Everybody smiling. Tim Thomas, the Bruins' goalie, smiling. The Bruins coaches smiling. NHL brass smiling.Jon Miller, the NBC exec whose brainchild this great idea was, pulled out his phone and asked me to take a picture of him, smiling, by the side of the rink.

There's something to be said for a sports event where everyone's happy, even the fans of the losing team. And I must have seen 10 Flyers fans taking photos outside Fenway after the game. Just a cool, feel-good event that was a gas to attend.

Someone mentioned in the comments a few weeks ago that Peter King was going to talk about the Flyers-Bruins game at Fenway Park. Well here we go, it happened. I am jaded though and would say if most hockey games were played outside not everyone would be smiling the entire time. I think the fact it was a once-a-year thing made this event more fun to attend.

h. How in the world are we going to get people fired up about the the Jets-Bengals rematch Saturday on NBC?

Exactly. As I mentioned earlier in this post, 3 of the 4 games are rematches of games this past Sunday. How the hell is that supposed to get people fired up for the playoffs? I know there is very little the NFL can do about this, but it does kind of stink.

3. I think we could argue about this for a while -- particularly at outside linebacker, wide receiver and the offensive line -- but here's the All-Pro team and awards I submitted to the Associated Press this morning: Peter King's 2009 All-Pro Team, Awards.

Let's look at Peter's All-Pro team and argue:

One other note: When important, I name players to their directional positions. Left tackle, right guard, for instance.

Oh sure, he does this for his All-Pro team but chooses not to do this for his All-Decade team. A little consistency is all I ask when choosing teams. Seriously, is that too much to ask?

WR Vincent Jackson, San Diego.

He's very slightly more consistent and just as game-breaking as Andre Johnson.

No, Andre Johnson should be a receiver on this team. I am not even arguing this. He should be an All-Pro receiver.

WR Wes Welker, New England.

Very tough to leave Reggie Wayne off this team, but it'd be tougher for me to leave the best slot receiver of this era off too.

So Welker is getting named because he is the best slot receiver of the era? I am not necessarily arguing with this selection, just wondering about the reasoning. It's not a lifetime achievement award, but an award for which player had the best year at each position. So while Welker had a good year, so did Wayne. Just because Welker is the best slot receiver of the era doesn't mean he should make the All-Pro team. Either way, Andre Johnson should be on the All-Pro team.

FB Lousaka Polite, Miami.

Not many teams use a pure fullback much anymore, and no team has as physical a blocker as Polite.

I may be a homer, but I would vote for the fullback that blocked for the only two running backs in the history of the NFL to both run for 1,100 yards in a season, Brad Hoover. I would think the fact both runners got 1,100 for the 1st time in NFL history would mean something about the guy who blocks for them. I guess not.

DE Jared Allen, Minnesota.

Allen would tell you he should have played better down the stretch, but through 12 weeks he was peerless. I'd listen to arguments for Robert Mathis here.

Absolutely not. Will Smith would have been a good choice here too over Allen. Jared Allen had 2 good games this year and the rest of the time he was merely above average. We discussed this earlier in this post. How is this hard to understand?

MLB Ray Lewis, Baltimore.

Had his most tackles since 2004 at age 34. How about this for consistency: Starting in Week 4, he had 14, 10, 8, 7, 8, 7, 8, 9, 7, 9, 9 and 12 tackles.

That's awesome because consistency is great. If we are going to measure tackles, how about these numbers:

Since Week 4, this guy had 10, 3, 7, 11, 11, 8, 8, 17, 6, 16, 3, 13, 8 tackles.

Consistency is fantastic but the 2nd guy had 3 interceptions and 3 sacks with 6 different defensive tackles that started in front of him this season against 3 sacks and 0 interceptions with a Pro Bowl nose tackle taking up space for Lewis. I am almost getting tired of saying it because he plays for my favorite team, but Jon Beason is being underrated in my world. Lewis can get it because he makes the same amount of tackles in each game and is old, that seems perfectly legit to me, but I wanted Beason on the Pro Bowl team. I hate All-Star game voting, yet I still whine about it. Go figure.

Comeback

Tom Brady, New England.

Thank God he didn't put Brett Favre in here. I would have had a hernia.

Coach

Marvin Lewis, Cincinnati.

I love Marvin Lewis and as inspiring as that performance against the Jets was last night, I don't think Marvin Lewis should be Coach of the Year. I have other suggestions, but there isn't one guy who sticks out for me this year. I think Jim Caldwell or Sean Payton probably could have gotten this award. There are other candidates I could mention over Lewis as well that many others may disagree with, like Mike McCarthy or Rex Ryan.

Ok, those are all the problems I had with Peter's All-Pro team, now back to Peter's MMQB.

b. Don't sleep on Malcom Floyd in the playoffs for San Diego. He's a 6-5 weapon too, just like Vincent Jackson.

All Peter has talked about is the size of the Chargers receivers. He is enamored with that team's height at the receiver position. It is a good thing, but I don't think it necessarily makes the Chargers a more dangerous team in the playoffs. Maybe I am wrong.

8. I think if records don't matter much to the Colts, why did Indianapolis play Reggie Wayne and Dallas Clark only long enough to get to 100 catches? It's fine that they did; I want a player to want to leave his footprints on NFL history. But to say Reggie Wayne or Dallas Clark catching 100 balls, or to say the record of consecutive regular-season wins by a team, is more significant to a franchise than becoming the first team ever to go 19-0 (and only the second team in modern pro football history to go undefeated for an entire season) is just flat wrong.

I 100% agree with Peter here. This is the same Colts team that starts Peyton Manning in every game just so he can keep his consecutive starts streak alive. Apparently personal goals are more important than team goals to the Colts. I think Peter says it best.

In reality, Peter's MMQB hasn't been as bad of late in certain regards and what he says about the Colts here is evidence of that. I don't expect this to continue though.

Polian said the perfect season "we did not feel was a historic achievement.'' But, Polian said, winning more games than any team in a decade, and winning the most consecutive regular-season games are "historical milestones that were worth going out there and risking everything for.''

How does this make sense? Winning more games than any other team in a season is not a historical achievement but winning more games than any other team in a decade is a historical achievement? I don't understand this.

I categorically disagree those milestone are more significant than 19-0. In my mind, they're not even close. Every football fan knows there's been only one 17-0 team, Miami in 1972, and never a team better than that. No football fan can tell you (with certainty anyway), nor does any football fan care, which team won the most games in the eighties, or nineties. The consecutive regular-season wins are certainly nice, but it's not imprinted on the brain stem of any football fan. Now, 19-0 ... that's immortality right there. And if you don't want to go for it because you don't want to risk injury, please say that.

Ladies and gentlemen a pissed off Peter King! Again, he is absolutely right here. I just hope his sudden and unexpected boldness doesn't jeopardize his relationship with Peyton Manning. That's all Peter has seemed to care about in the past (being buddies with players) and I hate to see him possibly give up having to be friends with some NFL players by giving his opinion.

9. I think I've said it before about Tim Tebow and I'll say it again: The NFL team that can't find a spot for Tebow to help it win games is close-minded.

Not in the 1st round. I can't justify taking him there.

I don't know if he can be an every-down quarterback, but I do know 28 teams passed on Joe Montana through two rounds because he was too small, 31 teams passed onTom Brady through five rounds because he was just another guy,

Teams passed on Tom Brady because he was sharing snaps with Drew Henson at Michigan. He wasn't the full-time starter when he was at Michigan. That's why teams passed on him. It's a bit early to compare Tebow to Tom Brady or Joe Montana.

b. Can we savor how great a college football player Tebow was before consigning him to the Bucs' practice squad, please?

Yes, we have all savored Tim Tebow for four straight college football seasons now. Peter doesn't think the world has savored Tebow because he personally hasn't savored Tebow (or doesn't watch much college football), but he will definitely do so in the future. I think Peter may have a Tebow-crush in his future.

To act as if the world hasn't given Tebow enough credit as a quarterback is beyond absurd. It's insane and ludicrous. Tebow gets credit every minute when he plays a football game and is showered with compliments by announcers. We have all savored him enough.

f. Boy, did this season go fast. Incredibly fast. It's like you get on a roller coaster and just hang on, and before you know it, the Lions are 2-14 again.

Boy, Peter was a little chippy today wasn't he?

I wonder if he is in a lover's quarrel with Brett Favre because Peter didn't name Brett his "Comeback Player of the Year?"