6 comments Murray Chass: Hater of All Things Numerical

I want to do a quick Saturday post for this weekend. Murry Chass is a friend of this blog...in that he isn't a friend of this blog because he is a closed-minded person when it comes to using statistics that have been created since 1972 to evaluate baseball players. You don't have to love statistics, but to ignore the impact they have on the game and how they can be used to advance the study of how baseball players perform more accurately and effectively is ignorant. He's like a Senator railing against Communists in the 1950's because he just randomly hates a group of people or a racist in the 1960's who refuses to let go of his beliefs that are RIGHT dammit, because that's the way it has always been and it was better that way.

Murray is feeling a little vindicated about Zack Greinke having a tough year. Greinke is currently 0-4 with an embarrassing 2.51 ERA, a pathetic 1.050 WHIP and an ERA+ of a terrible 164. In short, this obviously means he didn't deserve the Cy Young Award last year.

The stats freaks who never saw a decimal point they didn’t worship were ecstatic last year when Zack Greinke won the American League Cy Young award while winning only 16 games.

Because it was the right fucking decision. That is why "stats freaks" were happy, happy along with any other person that understands a pitcher's win-loss total also depends on how well his team hits. I will ask again, how is this hard to understand? I have never understood how the MVP has to come from the best, or one of the best, teams in the National and American League. Anyone who saw Greinke pitch last year should be happy he didn't get punished in the Cy Young voting for how bad his team was.

Zack Greinke was the best pitcher in the American League last year. Statistics or even anyone who watched him pitch could see this. "Only" winning 16 games is impressive when you play for a team that won "only" 65 games. He got credit for a 1/4 of his team's wins and deserved more wins than that. He had better statistics than the other pitchers in the running for the Cy Young and was more dominant than the other pitchers in the running. "Stats freak" or normal human beings with a brain could see this...and they did, which is why he won.

Felix Hernandez, who won 19 and whose 2.49 earned run average was second to Greinke’s 2.16, would have been my choice,

For what reason does Chass chose Hernandez over Greinke? We will never know, except Hernandez won more games...which as I have explained many times is a retarded reason to vote for one pitcher over another if that is the deciding reason for the vote. Let's compare numbers and see why a person would vote for Felix Hernandez over Zack Greinke...other than that person is over 60 years old and is protesting the use of statistics:

Zack Greinke: 16-8, 2.16 ERA, 1.073 WHIP, 229.1 IP, 242 strikeouts, 51 walks, 7.7 H/9, ERA+ 205 and 3 shutouts.

Felix Hernandez: 19-5, 2.49 ERA, 1.135 WHIP, 238.2 IP, 217 strikeouts, 71 walks, 7.5 H/9, ERA+ 174 and 1 shutout.

Even using the "old" numbers of dominance, Zack Greinke was the better pitcher last year. He pitched a few less innings, had more strikeouts, less walks, and was overall the better pitcher. That's just using the "old" stats that Murray Chass probably used. Wins is really the only category where Hernandez had a large advantage, but I've already covered how this is stupid to judge Greinke negatively because of this.

Zach Greinke has a pretty good claim to the 2009 Cy Young award, no matter how bitter Murray Chass is about it.

but the stats guys “proved” that Greinke was the correct choice because of his statistical standing in formulaic concoctions in which we mere mortals do not imbibe.

I have enjoyed the idea perpetuated that the stats used by "stats freaks" are too complicated to understand. First off, you don't have to know how exactly to calculate them to use them, so it is not like you need a degree from Harvard to use them effectively...you just have to try and understand them. That takes effort, which many "old school" journalists refuse to exert in an effort to cling desperately to the past.

More likely what Murray means by this comment is that he is too damn lazy to learn how to use the "new stats." In any other profession this would not be valued and he would be ridiculed and looked at with scorn, but in sports journalism it is seen as holding on to the past and is adored. Go figure.

I can’t wait to see what they will do with Greinke’s record this year. He has started seven games and has won none of them.

OMG! That means he sucks and shouldn't have won the Cy Young Award in 2009! Murray Chass should hurry up and tell the voters this, maybe they can get a re-vote going and overturn this travesty of a vote.

He has lost four. He has a respectable e.r.a. of 2.51, but he is the first returning Cy Young winner, Elias Sports Bureau says, to fail to win any of his first seven starts since Frank Viola in 1989.

Which as any sane person without an agenda could see, IS NOT ZACK GREINKE'S FAULT. How in the hell can anyone blame a pitcher with a sub-3.00 ERA for not winning a game?

2.51 is not a respectable ERA, it would have been the 3rd best ERA in the entire American League last year. It is a great ERA.

I am still miffed over the use of this word. Respectable? It's so clear that Murray Chass has an agenda against the use of new statistics and therefore any player that wins an award which he thinks was won because of new-fangled statistics he will immediately dislike. Calling a 2.51 ERA "respectable" is beyond absurd. That is a fantastic ERA, especially in the American League.

Let's look at Greinke's run-support this year:

He is receiving 2.39 runs per start, which is absolutely pathetic.

Game 1: Royals lost 8-4 where Greinke gave up 2 runs.
Game 2: Royals lost 8-3 where Greinke gave up 4 runs.
Game 3: Royals lost 10-3 where Greinke gave up 4 runs.
Game 4: Royals won 4-3 where Greinke gave up 2 runs.
Game 5: Royals lost 3-2 where Greinke gave up 0 runs.
Game 6: Royals lost 1-0 where Greinke gave up 1 run.
Game 7: Royals lost 4-1 where Greinke gave up 3 runs.

Isn't it weird how in every game this year runs have been scored by the opposition after Greinke left the game? Over the 7 games he has pitched in, there have been an average of 3.14 runs scored by the opposing team AFTER he has left the game...or more runs have been scored after he has left the game than the run support he has been given this year while he was in the game.

In other words, the opposing team has scored more runs in the 16.1 innings after Greinke has left the game than the Royals have scored in the 46.2 innings he has been in the game.

It is almost like he isn't completely to blame for his team losing. Perhaps Murray Chass should focus on how bad the Royals bullpen has been. In the three cases the bullpen didn't blow up. In one case the Royals didn't score the entire game and Greinke lost by giving up 1 run and in the other case the Royals offense scored 1 run...and the Royals won the other game. It's ridiculous to blame Greinke for this or even suggest he is somewhat to blame for not winning a game this year.

In Greinke’s April 27 start against Seattle, he allowed no runs in seven innings and left with a 2-0 lead, but the Mariners scored three runs in the eighth against Josh Rupe and won, 3-2.

In his next start, against Tampa Bay, Greinke gave up only one run in eight innings, but it was an Evan Longoria home run and it was the only run of the game.

Earlier in this motive-filled crap-fest, Murray Chass asked this question:

I can’t wait to see what they will do with Greinke’s record this year.

I think he just answered his own question by showing two instances where Greinke has gotten screwed by the bullpen and his offense. "What we will do" is show that Greinke has had terrible luck this year and it in no way reflects on him as a pitcher. It's not his fault he can't drive runs in or pitch a complete game every time out, because those are the only two ways I could think to blame Greinke for currently not having won a game.

If anything, Greinke's record this year shows just how well he pitched last year to have won 16 games when pitching for the Royals and why he rightfully won the Cy Young award. Murray Chass should be embarrassed to try and say Greinke is less of a pitcher because he hasn't won a game this year.