http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2008/writers/tom_verducci/03/11/verducci.beckett/index.html
(Copy and paste it, I am not good at posting hyperlinks...yet.)
Tom Verducci has a prediction and it's not a bold one. He thinks five certain pitchers are going to have a big jump in their performance this year and be the next "Beckett," and it will help their team win the World Series. I always enjoy a column focusing on pitchers who could help their team win a World Series if they just have a little better year statistically. It helps me identify unknown players who might give borderline teams a chance to win. Though, I am not sure focusing on Josh Beckett is the best example since he did win a...
Beckett didn't come out of nowhere. He was the World Series MVP with the Marlins in 2003, and he did win 16 games in 2006, albeit with a 5.01 ERA.
Thanks for adding that Tom. I was not sure if I considered 2007 a breakthrough either for Beckett since injuries had stopped him from being quite the pitcher everyone knew he could be. Plus, he did have that World Series MVP thingie. So end of comparison then? I will give you five minutes to choose another pitcher with which to compare these overlooked pitchers who could have a breakthrough year. Go ahead and...
Here are five pitchers who could be the next Beckett: pitchers who could step up with 20 wins, and if they do, their teams just might win the last game played this year.
You've lost me, but go ahead. Also, please stop interrupting me. Who are these mystery pitchers? Rule 5 pickups? Under the radar hurlers who seem to have finally gotten it together? What did you say Tom? Incorrect and stupid guesses? How about two All Stars, two of the best young prospects currently pitching in the majors and one of the best Japanese pitchers to ever come over to America? Correct! Tom, you are really going to go all out with this comparison aren't you? I am not good at bylines but perhaps you should have called this article "3 Pitchers Who Have Not Been In The Majors Long Enough To Show What They Can Do, One Pitcher Who Needed A Change Of Scenery, And An Old Pitcher Who Probably Won't Make 20 Starts Who Could Help Their Team Win The World Series."
1. Felix Hernandez
Hernandez still won 14 games and struck out 165 batters -- only 15 other pitchers in history were so accomplished at such a young age, among them Christy Mathewson, Babe Ruth and Bob Feller. Only three other pitchers did it in the past 30 years and every one of them went on to win a Cy Young Award: Fernando Valenzuela, Dwight Gooden and C.C. Sabathia.
First off, I will rename this blog King Felix and his Court Jester Bengoodfella if the Seattle Mariners win the World Series. If they do by any chance win the West, I would think Erik Bedard would have some impact, but that is just me. That is some incredible company to put King Felix in and it sure sounds like he had a swell year. So I guess he had his breakout year last year then, right Tom?
It's only a matter of time before King Felix claims one of his own.
That is literally what I am saying. He can't have a breakout year, he has broken out already. I would prefer it if you choose pitchers who have not had a good year already and would tell me something I am not currently aware of.
2. Daisuke Matsuzaka
Now Tom, let's be fair. He was a pretty good pitcher in Japan, he had never played in America before, and he did not exactly have a bad year over here. He also has a huge contract, so expectations were already high. So I think it is safe to say it is not exactly a stretch to think he may have a better year than 2007. Why are you writing this article again? You are telling me things I already know. What don't I know is why...
Matsuzaka surprised the Red Sox by reporting to camp heavier than last year. He explained that he enjoyed his best seasons in Japan when he carried more weight. Perhaps Matsuzaka also is better prepared for the grind of the longer major league campaign, which took its toll on the right-hander over the final two months of last season.
Ok, forget Matsuzaka is already a pretty good pitcher and you are writing an article about him breaking out. He is fatter and you think that is going to help his endurance for an entire MLB schedule? Tommy, now I just question your sanity. Pray tell, what more my good man...
Like Hernandez, Matsuzaka was underappreciated last year because the expectations were so high. He did win 15 games and strike out more than 200 batters. Only four other pitchers did that in their first year: Gooden, Mark Langston, Herb Score and Grover Cleveland Alexander.
I don't get why you are predicting a breakout year for a pitcher by backing it up with cherry picked stats showing how incredible his first year in the majors was and the fact he is now fat. Maybe he will get better this year, but I think he has already broken out. I have a $102 million reasons to say that. What gives my fair man?
Still, Matsuzaka lacked a certain polish you'd expect from someone with his pro experience.
What an ass I am! I forgot about the polish ratio. (Not to be confused with the Polish ratio, which if I am not wrong, has something to do with Poland and gerbils...not sure on this one though.) Has Matsuzaka been looking to improve on his polish ratio? How does he do this? Is he currently trying good pickup lines at bars, opening doors for ladies or just speaking in a lower more sexually charged tone to get what he wants?
If he fine tunes his approach with that year of experience to learn from, five more wins is not out of the question.
So why does it have to be wins that improves? Because he only won 15 games last year, that is not a breakout year, he needs five more...to 20. Then...breaking out like crazy!!! Banzai!!! Sorry, I did not mean to mock your arbitrary "20 games and playing on a winning team means you have broken out" rule. You hate Bert Blyleven don't you?
3. Chad Billingsley
Five years after being selected in the first round of the draft
Ah, a non obvious choice huh? Not to be picky here Tom, but I would think if Brad Penny, Hiroki Kuroda and Derek Lowe won 20 games each, it would be just as big of a deal for the Dodgers. I guess Billingsley was named the #1 starter this year then? That makes sense because you usually want your top 3 starters to win 20 games and "break out," because that does...
The Dodgers will use him as their No. 4 starter behind Brad Penny, Derek Lowe and Hiroki Kuroda.
Oh...so the other three starters are just as important then. Why did you choose Billingsley then as your BREAKOUT CANDIDATE ON A WINNING TEAM! Honestly, I am just messing with you at this point, I think you are right Billingsley is headed for big th-...
Billingsley, 23, is primed for stardom.
So you just want to be right. Great, you pick the category of breaking out, choose pitchers who have already broken out, and then you choose pitchers who are not quite as important to the team but have a chance in 2 years to win 20 games (you choose the number of wins, don't look at me) as examples. I am not going to win am I? What about the Dodger's hitting? Gotcha!
he'll have the breakout year the offensively challenged Dodgers will need.
I do realize if he pitches well then the offense won't have to score so many runs, but is a team really going to make the World Series and have Billingsley pitch the winning game based on that principle Tom? I would think not, dear sir. I had to look this up, but I think pitching and hitting are two separate things Tommy. They are connected in that a team must need both to be successful but they are not really directly related to success in one gives you success in another. I have just drawn three rings and you see how they are connected in the middle, that is the...
4. Pedro Martinez, Mets.
What the fuck Tom? Now you are just trying to piss me off. Pedro could go to the Hall of Fame. How in the hell is he going to have a breakout year?
People like to think Martinez, at 36, isn't a strikeout pitcher anymore and is more of a finesse guy. Well, over the past two seasons, with his arm in various states of repair and recovery, Martinez still whiffed 169 batters in 160 2/3 innings.
No. No one thinks he is just a finesse pitcher at this point. We think he gets hurt a lot and broke out literally 10 years ago. If the Mets win the World Series, yes, he has a lot to do with it. This is not going out on a limb Tom. Why did you write this article? Here is what you could have done and not wasted my time and energy. "Of the contenders, I think Felix Hernandez, Daisuke Matsuzaka, Chad Billingsley, Pedro Martinez, and Dontrelle Willis could really determine their team's fortunes." Done. End of sentence.
Just don't expect the Mets to use him like a horse; they never have. New York has given him extra rest (at least five days) for 38 of his 60 starts with the team, including 20 of his past 28. That careful approach may limit his overall starts,
There you go again, sabotaging your own cherry picked stats. Are you trying to get me to focus on the stats and not this useless, fucking article. I won't do it...ok, only for a second. Maybe if Pedro got fatter and made less starts he could win 20 games.
but that doesn't mean you should rule out a third career 20-win season for a guy with a .692 lifetime winning percentage.
Who wants to bet Pedro makes 29 starts this year? That is how many games he would have to pitch at his lifetime winning percentage to get to 20 games won. Fuck you Tom, you have me paying attention to stats now, focused away from the fact Pedro broke out 10 years ago. You always do this to me, you know...
5. Dontrelle Willis, Tigers
Everyone knows Willis is an important pitcher and it could be why the Tigers traded half their farm system for him and Miguel Cabrera. His ERA and walks have increased over the last years and he is going to the American League, which you columnists always say will hurt a pitcher. How are you going to avoid that rule of thumb?
A good rule of thumb when a pitcher jumps from the NL to the AL is to add half of a run to his ERA. That would bump Willis' number to a staggering 5.67. But here is one case where a change of scenery might actually have some meaning to it.
Has he changed his mechanics or perhaps found a new "out" pitch?
Willis was the Marlins' meal ticket. He made every one of his starts for five years in Florida, usually carrying the psychological load of a gate attraction and the team's best chance to win in a five-day period. By last season Willis and his stuff looked worn down.
Not he himself looked worn down...but his stuff? He was burdened also. I don't know if you want a pitcher who does not want to be the number one starter or the gate attration to be a breakout candidate Tommy. What can the Tigers do to help him lower his ERA?
he actually pitched better than the league average when the Marlins found him an extra day of rest (4.12).
Good! Go find a 6th starter Tigers management. Hurry along now.
Also, Florida scored three or fewer runs for him 13 times. I'm guessing that won't happen with the Tigers.
Has...nothing...to...do...with...ERA. These candidates are obviously good pitchers or potentially good pitchers, I don't get what you are trying to prove. Are these the first 5 pitchers you could think of on contending teams?
That's exactly the kind of smart thinking that started Beckett on his way last year.
Beckett was on his way before last year. It was not a breakout year for him. He was the #1 starter on the best team in the major leagues. He finally met his full potential. I am in a good mood today, I will give you Billingsley as a breakout pitcher. The rest of the pitchers Hernandez, Martinez, Willis and Matsuzaka are household names that most people know are going to be/currently are/where good pitchers. I literally have no idea why you wrote this article. The pitchers may make a big jump this year because they are excellent at the sport already...except Pedro, the only jump he will make is when he jumps the shark (BAM! Pop culture reference. High fives all around the room). Next time we speak Tom, please just tell me something I don't know. Please?
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