Saturday, April 10, 2010

2 comments Early Entry List (So Far) Analysis

I like nothing better than giving unsolicited advice to athletes. Ok, there are things I like more, but I still love giving my opinion on what players should do when it comes to entering the NBA Draft and things like that. Today, I am going to take the early entry list (so far) and give my opinion on whether these guys are actually leaving school or if they are going to the NBA...and of course I will say whether I think they will be a success in leaving school early for the NBA Draft.

I am taking the early entry list from here and there are other lists out there that contain more players who haven't officially declared yet. I am going to stick to the players who have officially declared and it is now public knowledge. I was really surprised to see some names that have come out for the draft, though they may not intend on staying in the draft, and if I missed anyone then I am sorry, it is hard to keep up with those who have declared sometimes.

Cole Aldrich

He is absolutely staying in the draft and he should absolutely stay in the draft. Considering his declining stats from his sophomore to junior year, it was the right move. He will be drafted 10 spots higher than he should be and be like a really poor man's Andrew Bogut, which is basically not a lottery pick. It's a good time to leave and maximize his potential before NBA scouts actually start watching him play basketball. Ok, maybe I am being hard on him, but I am on record as not liking him and I have to stick to my position.

Al-Farouq Aminu

He is staying in the draft and absolutely should. Personally, I love him. He is a great NBA prospect in my mind. He can shoot, rebound, and even is a decent ball-handler. I am a fan, though his need to nearly double his 3 point attempts makes me afraid he might become another Rasheed Wallace-type who thinks he can shoot better than he can, when he should stay a little closer to the basket.

James Anderson

He is staying in the draft as well. He also increased his three point attempts, for his junior year which I don't get. I have no problem with an increase in three point attempts, but it helps if a player can hit a high percentage instead of 34% of them. Against Georgia Tech in the NCAA Tournament, he shot 6 three point shots (and hit none of them) out of 12 total shots. That's a red flag that when he is struggling he doesn't appear to immediately try to take the ball to the basket. I read a scouting report that says he has no conscious and will continue shooting even if he is cold to break out the slump. Well, that's not always a good thing, because he won't be getting 11 shots in the NBA if he has hit 1-2 of them. He is a 2nd round guy for me, but I know others feel differently.

Talor Battle

Battle has declared but he is not going to stay in the draft, at least in my opinion. There aren't a lot of great point guards in this draft, though I consider Eric Bledsoe a point guard, so Battle may have an advantage in that he is a quality point guard in a draft that doesn't have a lot of them. He should stay in school one more year and refine his game. He isn't a great shooter, he is shorter than an ideal point guard would be and if he doesn't want to play overseas this year, I think he goes back to Penn State.

Eric Bledsoe

He's staying in the draft, though I think he should stay at Kentucky for one more year. His natural position is point guard. I don't think he has the body type to play the combo-guard spot on a team. He is too short for that. He may be a Top 15 pick, but he should stay at Kentucky for one more year and guarantee himself a spot in the Top 10 by showing he can play point guard. One year away from John Wall can't be a bad thing for him.

Avery Bradley

Bradley has declared for the draft and I think he is gone. He is a 6'2" shooting guard. He is a pretty good 6'2" shooting guard, but that fact still remains. He is projected to go in the 1st round, so that means he is probably not going to change his mind since he will get a guaranteed contract. I saw him play at Texas this year and he was the typical inconsistent freshman I expected him to be. He has a ton of talent, but doesn't seem 100% sure how to harness that talent. Hopefully he will find a team willing to help him with that in the NBA.

Craig Brackins

He is going in the draft, but I don't know if he will stay or not. I would personally stay for my senior year and dominate, because NBA scouts only have his sophomore to junior year scoring decline to think about now. It feels like he regressed a bit. He appeared to be a better defensive player this year in terms of blocks and steals, but I think he needs to prove he can dominate in his senior year to be any more than a 2nd round pick. I think he could be a 1st round pick if he come back for one more year and plays well.

Derrick Caracter

He's gone and he isn't coming back. He probably would have skipped college completely if given the opportunity. He had some (no pun intended) character issues at Louisville, but he seems to have recovered from those at UNLV. He is a big guy and for me, he is a boom-or-bust type guy. I don't know which way he will go either. I see him as a guy who could eventually be a borderline All-Star or a guy who always underachieves. He may be good Zach Randolph or bad Eddy Curry.

DeMarcus Cousins

He's going pro and not coming back. He may have actually gone to the NBA mentally in the second half of the game against West Virginia. I personally really like him and think he will make a good NBA player, though I can't help but wonder if he is mature enough to handle the NBA-life right now.

Jordan Crawford

If dunking on LeBron didn't cause his stock to shoot up, then that game against Kansas State certainly did. Let's face it, he is a scoring machine and he can shoot pretty at a high percentage also. I don't think he is all hype personally. I would take him over Bradley, Anderson, and if you got me drunk enough Xavier Henry. Ok, maybe I am getting carried away now. Though I think he may end up being a Ben Gordon-type, that's not a bad thing. The only concern I have is that being "Ben Gordon" may end up being his ceiling.

Malcolm Delaney

I don't like Delaney personally. He hoisted up 15 shots per game and hit 38.7% of them this year and that's not even his career low. For me, his sophomore year was much more impressive than his junior year. He's a guy who scores because he takes a lot of shots. He's a 2nd round pick and may as well go back to Virginia Tech.

Kenneth Faried

Never heard of him. There's no point in lying. He dominated at Morehead State and appears to prefer to stick around the basket. Just a guess, but against that level of competition he may have been big and strong enough to score, but at 6'8" 240 pounds in the NBA I don't know if he will as much success. I haven't seen him on any draft boards either, so I am pretty at a loss for what to say about him. He looks like a good NBA player from the statistics and his build.

Derrick Favors

He wouldn't have gone to college if he didn't have to either. I like Favors and I do understand he didn't have a point guard this year, but I still worry about him in the NBA. When things are going bad, his body language is terrible. He just doesn't seem like the kind of guy who will lift his team up when they are struggling, but instead seems to be the guy who pouts the most when a team is struggling. That being said, I would have been pissed if I had been on that GT team this year too. It can't be easy having Paul Hewitt coaching you.

Charles Garcia

I had read about Garcia in Sports Illustrated and he does appear to be a legitimate NBA prospect. I am not surprised he declared for the NBA draft, but the thing that concerns me is that he has played D-I college basketball for only one year and was a late bloomer. I can't help but wonder if another year in college wouldn't help him some. He appears to be staying in the draft though.

Paul George

He's going to the NBA and staying there. It's a good move for him, he has proven all that he can at Fresno State. He is projected to be a late 1st round pick and has been compared to Danny Granger, which wasn't a bad comparison based on the one game I watched him play this year.

Manny Harris

I remember seeing his name on ESPN's bottom line as having announced he was going to the NBA and laughing. He has signed with an agent and everything, he is going all-in. It's a joke in my mind. His numbers look good, until you realize he hoisted up 14 shots and 6 free throws per game and only averaged 18 points. Long story short, he is a 6'5" shooting guard that really can't shoot and has "improved" his field goal percentage to 42% for his junior year. I wouldn't be so hard on him if he was testing the waters or had not hired an agent. He is in the draft and I think he should stay for his senior year.

Jeremy Hazell

I don't think he will stay in the NBA draft, but I could be wrong. He is 24 years old and probably needs to go into the draft now because teams are really going to see his age as a negative and staying one more year won't help that. It seems like he has a plane ticket already to play basketball overseas. He's not an NBA player and that is not me exaggerating. He is on a bad team at Seton Hall and is responsible for hoisting up shots and scoring, which he does well. There is nothing special about him and there are 20 other guys in this draft who have the same skill set as him.

Xavier Henry

Henry is going pro and staying pro. It's probably a good move, because he is considered a lottery pick and most likely wouldn't move up too far if he stayed for his sophomore year. The NBA will love him. He looks like an NBA player and didn't show all of his potential at Kansas this past year. A guy who looks like an NBA player and has potential, but hasn't shown it on a consistent basis on the court is a guy NBA teams would draft in the lottery every year if they could. I am a little confused about Henry because he was hidden a bit this year on the talented Kansas team.

Adnan Hodzic

Never heard of him. Apparently he hasn't hired an agent and is a 6'9" center who dominated the Atlantic Sun. I have seen Atlantic Sun games and Hodzic averages .4 blocks per game and 9 rebounds per game. That doesn't impress me that much nor do his other statistics. He is from Bosnia so maybe he is looking to declare for the draft and then play overseas if he isn't drafted. Otherwise, I don't know if he will make it.

Armon Johnson

Johnson appears to be hiring an agent, which means he is obviously determined to be drafted in the 2nd round this year. I haven't seen him any higher than the 2nd round and barring any great performances at the draft camps, I don't think he will end up being any better than a 2nd round pick. In my mind, if you are a junior and there is a chance at all you may be undrafted, you better stay in college.

Dominique Jones

He's going and he is staying. I think he will be a good NBA player, maybe a guy off the bench for a contending team. He looks like a tweener, but I am going to hit him with the more complimentary description that he is a combo-guard. He gets to the foul line and is actually a decent shooter (at least for a guy who shoots a lot). I like Jones in the NBA.

Sylvan Landesberg

Landesberg is a guy who I thought was going to be a superstar this year at Virginia. Then he ran into some academic problems at UVa. Fortunately, the NBA doesn't force incoming players to take a standardized test or anything, so based on his basketball ability he will be fine in the NBA. He didn't really progress too much during his sophomore year, so that is a red flag, but he has the ability to do well in the NBA. I see him as a 2nd round guy.

Gani Lawal

I love Gani Lawal. His junior year was pretty much a wash because Paul Hewitt was his coach (he did not use Lawal properly) and Derrick Favors occupied the same space in the post as Lawal, so those two could almost not be on the court at the same time. He still had good stats and his conflict with Favors could be seen in the fact Lawal had his minutes dip during his junior year. Still, he is a 1st round pick and he shouldn't dare to go back to Georgia Tech where Paul Hewitt did a good job of trying to screw him up this past year.

Tommy Mason-Griffin

The best part about Mason-Griffin going pro? His announcement on Facebook that made him a cliche. I think Mason-Griffin is going to be a great player overseas next year. He hasn't hired an agent yet, but I think he is staying in the draft unless he somehow manages to come to his senses. He may want to alert the NBA is planning on joining the league, because I am not sure if they know. He didn't have terrible numbers but why would he go pro when he has so many things about his game to work on?

AJ Ogilvy

Ogilvy declared for the NBA Draft and is planning on hiring an agent, which means he is gone from Vanderbilt. Ogilvy seemed intent on leaving in that article, but notice how his coach, Kevin Stallings said:

“Hopefully his agent’s projection of being a late first-round draft pick is accurate and he will have a long and prosperous NBA career,” Vanderbilt Coach Kevin Stallings said.

That's not exactly a ringing endorsement. He is a 6'11" center who averages 6 rebounds per game in the SEC and he has actually somewhat regressed a bit as his career progressed at Vandy. This is a bad decision in my mind. He'll go in the 2nd round at absolute best and could ("could" being the key word) be a good piece for a team due to him having a decent skill set, but there was no reason to go pro after his junior year. Overall, I don't see him sticking in the NBA.

Daniel Orton

Another decision I disagree with. He will be drafted in the 1st round based on the fact he has potential and is tall. He may make a good NBA player one day, but he doesn't seem to be ready to start for a team and he could improve his draft stock by staying one more year. Why not do it? Orton played 13 minutes per game and never played more than 23 minutes. When the game was tight, he got less minutes. That has to mean something doesn't it? If his college coach doesn't feel like he can count on him, what will an NBA coach think? Especially since he is going to probably be drafted in the late 1st round by a team that is a playoff contender. One more year would have worked better for me.

Patrick Patterson

The most impressive thing we learned about Patrick Patterson this year is that he can be a team player. He went from being one of the top players on the 08-09 Kentucky team to deferring to John Wall and DeMarcus Cousins and still found ways to contribute. He learned to shoot a three point shot and improved his jump shot. It wouldn't completely surprise me to see him go back to school for his senior year to improve his draft stock for next year. He shouldn't in my mind because he is projected to be a lottery pick, but he seems like the kind of guy who could stay for four years in college. I wouldn't personally and I don't think he will.

Herb Pope

I hope Herb Pope is going back to Seton Hall. He isn't ready for the NBA and the NBA isn't ready to draft him anywhere but the 2nd round at this point. His statistics did improve between his time at New Mexico State and when he transferred to Seton Hall, but I don't think it will be enough to make him a 1st round pick. So why go to the NBA if you aren't guaranteed a contract and are Herb Pope? Going back to college at Seton Hall under a new coach may actually help your draft stock. I say go back to college and I have a feeling he will...unless a team is looking for a guy who can punch opposing players in the groin. If that's the case, Herb Pope is an All-Star.

Jeff Robinson

For a team that went 19-13 this year, Seton Hall sure has a lot of players turning professional. Robinson is essentially admitting he knows he won't be drafted, but wants us to know he hasn't hired an agent so his options are open. Really, just looking at Robinson he is nothing really special. I would say go back to college, but it appears he really wants to play basketball overseas, so more power to him.

Lance Stephenson

He is going pro, there is no doubt. He isn't coming back to college, where he never wanted to be anyway. He's another guy who wouldn't have gone to college unless he had to, which was the case. Personally, he is not my type of player. He seems to be fairly immature and I just have a feeling the transition to the NBA may not be smooth for him. I haven't heard where he may go, but I could easily see him slipping to the 2nd round. Still he has great athleticism and the NBA scouts will probably just love him. I mean, he is from Brooklyn...doesn't that mean he will be great?

Evan Turner

Not much to say here. He is going pro and he absolutely should. He already has the #2 pick locked down and will make a team very happy. He played PG for a good portion of this year and didn't embarrass himself in the position even though it isn't even close to being his natural position. There is very little not to like about Evan Turner.

Alex Tyus

This is a mistake. Tyus has reportedly said if he isn't a first round pick then he isn't going to stay in the draft. He may want to pull out now (that's what she said). He isn't going in the 1st round, at least not this year. The NBA is full of guys who are 6'8" and scored 11 points and a little under 7 rebounds in college. Tyus needs to stay in college and I have the feeling he is going to.

John Wall

You can all laugh at me if you would like to, but there was a few days after the loss to West Virginia I thought Wall may not turn pro. He could have possibly challenged the one-and-done rule before he even got to Kentucky, but chose not to, so I thought he may get crazy and stay in college one more year. He looked distraught at the press conference after the game against West Virginia and 10% of me thought he might stay. Smartly, he did not stay. He shouldn't stay in college, he should go pro. He is a franchise changing player.

Willie Warren

I don't particularly agree with this decision, but I don't believe Warren is changing his mind either. He had an inconsistent year, so I think it might have helped him to stay at Oklahoma and try to bring his draft stock up some more. For me, Warren is a tweener. He can't handle the ball well enough to be a point guard and he is kind of small for a point guard. After a bad year in college, I think one more year would be a no-brainer, but he's going pro. A team who chooses him in the 2nd round could get a steal though.

Hassan Whiteside

I don't say this just because he comes from my hometown, but Hassan Whiteside may end up being the type of player Hasheem Thabeet will never be. I think he could turn pro, but I also think learning a little bit more in college about how to play the center position would be a great idea. I see him staying pro, especially since his stock is up and he will go in the lottery, but I am afraid the NBA may eat him up a little bit. He needs to be taught how to be a center and if he gets with the wrong team in the NBA that probably won't happen to the extent it should. Otherwise, he plays great defense and could be a valuable player in the NBA.

Chris Wright

Right hasn't hired an agent, so he is not gone quite yet. I have to say, I don't know if he should stay in the draft. He hasn't improved his numbers dramatically from his sophomore year and I don't know if he is going to be a 1st round lock. Honestly, I think if an NBA scout hears the name "Chris Wright" he will think of the Georgetown guard. I think he will back out of the draft and he probably should.

Jahmar Young

I think Young will end up going back to New Mexico State. He is a great shooter and is probably ready for the NBA Draft. I liked his sophomore year at NMSU better than I liked his junior year. If he stays in the draft, he will probably be picked in the 2nd round and I think if he stays one more year at NMSU, then there is a chance he will be picked in the 2nd round...unless he blows up next year. He is one of the few players on this list that I don't have a strong feeling one way or another about him.


Jeremy Conlin said...

Don't lie, the Caracter-character pun was absolutely intended.

Bengoodfella said...

Fine, I thought about it as a pun and decided to use it anyway. I am VERY interested to see Caracter in the NBA. I have no clue where he will get chosen. I do know he will probably be in the 1st round of my mock draft.