3 comments Seattle Mariners, St. Louis Cardinals and Tampa Rays 2010 Team Previews

I am going to do 3 team previews today and then three more team previews for Saturday to complete my MLB previews before the season begins. I will be doing the Seattle Mariners, St. Louis Cardinals, and Tampa Rays today.

First, I will do the Mariners 2010 team preview.

Seattle Mariners

Lineup

Seattle is this year's popular pick to win the AL West. I would normally love to jump on that bandwagon, but this lineup has a lot of convincing of me to do before I can get too excited about their prospects to beat the Angels. Where the hell is the offense coming from? Is Milton Bradley the cleanup hitter for this team? He can be a great hitter but he also doesn't always play in a full season of games, plus his performance was down last year and he is going to be 32 years old in one month. If he is your cleanup hitter, you don't have a great team. Other than that, this team is built for defense, which I respect, but unfortunately preventing runs from scoring doesn't actually score a team runs. I've seen Kotchman play on a frequent basis and he is just an average first baseman offensively, I do like the Chone Figgins acquisition but he is a guy who needs to be on-base and he can't drive guys in, Jose Lopez can hit home runs but has an OBP of .303, Jack Wilson is a fucking offensive nightmare at SS, and I have heard Rob Johnson is going to bounce back this year (from what, I don't know), but we'll see. In the outfield, they have great defense and Ichiro is still a great RF and hitter. Gutierrez is more known for his defense, while the DH spot is going to be split between Ken Griffey Jr., Eric Byrnes, and Mike Sweeney. This offense leaves a lot to be desired. They actually cut Ryan Garko to keep Sweeney, which I don't get at all.

Rotation

Here is the strength of the team...at least for two rotation spots. Felix Hernandez and Cliff Lee are a fantastic 1-2 punch and then it drops off dramatically. Both pitchers are ridiculously good, though I can't help but wonder why the Mariners have Lee undergoing "experimental" treatment for his abdomen. That doesn't sound good. Ryan Rowland-Smith relies on good defense and command of his pitches, which works out well since he pitches behind this defense and plays at Safeco Field. Other than that, he hasn't been too impressive in the past and I am not sure he is a #3 pitcher on a contending team. Ian Snell has the 4th spot in the rotation and an ERA over 4.00 locked up for this year and the 5th starter spot is a toss-up between Doug Fister, Luke French, and Jason Vargas...none of which have shown they can be more than 5th starters on a good team. Doug Fister should get that spot unless something goes wrong. Overall, it is not a terrible rotation, but the fall-off from Hernandez/Lee makes it tough for me to imagine this team will be contending for the AL West title when/if Erik Bedard comes back this year.

Bullpen

David Aardsma had a great year last year as the closer and he looks to be a guy who can be a quality closer for the Mariners. Now the problem who is going to be the set-up guy other than Mark Lowe. Lowe had a good year last year and will also be the backup closer if Aardsma starts struggling. Shawn Kelley has a great K:SO ratio and his ERA has been pretty high, but he may be able to pull some of that together this year and have a good year. I don't see a LH pitcher in this pen other than Jason Vargas, so that worries me a little bit...especially in a division where Abreu and Matsui may end up at the plate late in a game against the Angels. It is not a bad bullpen and I think it will be around the middle of the rankings of bullpens in the American League.

What I Like

I like the pitching and the overall focus on defense this team has. It's nice to see a team think outside the box a little bit when evaluating players and the focus on defense for the Mariners does that. They have great pitching for a short series in Hernandez and Lee. If Erik Bedard is able to come back and be effective at some point this year, it will only make the staff that much stronger. Ryan Rowland-Smith has potential to do well at Safeco Field and I have always wondered why Ian Snell isn't a better pitcher than he currently is. The 5th starter spot is a little bit too much up in the air for my tastes. The Mariners have made an effort to improve this team and adding guys like Ryan Garko, (they cut him as I was writing this, so Mike Sweeney is in this spot now) Chone Figgins, and Milton Bradley go to show this. The Mariners have a plan to win the AL West and be competitive, but now that plan has to actually work, which is what I question. The Mariners are going to be a team that is based on defense and not a team that gets runs off home runs and pounding the ball all over the ballpark. The only power threats in this lineup are Lopez and Bradley, so it is a bit of a risk to think they can keep up with a team that is as strong as them offensively.

What I Don't Like

I really don't like the fact there is no power on this team. I feel like some of these hitters are going to have to have career best years to score some runs for this team. They scored about 1.5 runs/game less than the Angels did last year and I am not sure this is a stronger offensive team than last year and I am not sure if the Angels are weaker offensively. The pitching and defense can only take them so far, at some point this team will have to hit the ball. I want to like the backups, but I am not pumped up about Ryan Langerhans or Jack Hannahan as backups for multiple positions. Another quibble I have is the #3-#5 starters in the rotation. Are those guys going to be able to perform well for the Mariners this year? I know what Lee/Hernandez can provide, but what can the other guys in the rotation provide? The bullpen is fairly good for the Mariners but it is like most pens and can't handle being overworked. Other than the two guys at the top of the rotation, where are all the other innings coming from? I just don't think this team is strong enough in the rotation and offensively to keep up in the AL West right now.

Final Record

This is a good team and I think maybe in a different year in the AL West they could compete. The Rangers are improving and the Angels are still a good team. I love defense and I love top-of-the-rotation pitching, but there has to be other quality pitchers in a rotation and there has to be some sort of offense to score runs. I don't know if I see enough of either of those things here. There's power, but the power comes from sources that are fairly uncertain like Bradley (attitude, injuries), Griffey Jr. (he's old), and Jose Lopez (he can't get on-base). Jack Wilson and Kotchman provide very little offensively and I don't know if the defense is going to be enough to override the fact this team is fairly weak at the plate. If they got lucky then they may be able to beat the Angels out for the division title, but I can't see that happening this year.

Last year: 85-77
This year: 81-81

St. Louis Cardinals

Lineup

They have Albert Pujols and that is a huge step in the right direction. They also re-signed Matt Holliday, which depending on your point of view is a good thing or a huge overpayment. My opinion is they overpaid for him, but they sort of had to in order to make Pujols happy. Pujols-Holliday is a pretty good 3-4 punch in the batting order and possibly the best in the National League. I think this lineup is going to be good enough to win the NL Central but I do have some other questions about it past that. The infield has some question marks in my mind. Skip Schumaker has the makings of a good leadoff hitter, but I am not sure what David Freese and Brendan Ryan are going to be able to provide at SS and 3B in the terms of offense. They both seem like guys who can get on base, but may not have the most power. Still, Freese has looked good in Spring Training and it is not like they are looking for him to be the main power for this team. Like others, Ryan, Freese, and Schumaker need to get on-base for others to knock them in. The outfield is the most interesting spot in this lineup to me at least. I look for Colby Rasmus to have a great year and take a leap up from what he was hitting last year. He's had a full year in the majors now and he should be getting ready to make a leap to being a great hitter. Ryan Ludwick took a major dive from what he was hitting last year, so it will be interesting to see if he stays at his 2009 numbers or can hit like he did in 2008.

Rotation

This rotation seems to be fairly set at this point. The Cardinals have a great 1-2 pitching combination with Carpenter and Wainwright. Those two guys are about as good of two pitchers as you will find at the top of a rotation in the National League. After a fantastic 2008 season, Kyle Lohse went back to the Kyle Lohse we all know he can be with a 4.74 ERA and a losing record. Brad Penny is the Dave Duncan reclamation project for this year and while he has the stuff to be a good pitcher, Duncan is going to have his work cut out for him in trying to get Penny to be an effective pitcher. Penny has struggled some in Spring Training, but he is reportedly not that worried. I think that says more than I have to about Brad Penny. Jaime Garcia is coming off Tommy John surgery and he is a highly touted rookie LH pitcher. He has the 5th starter spot locked down and it wouldn't surprise me if he had a good year and eventually was the 4th best starter on this team. This is a good rotation, but Lohse isn't a #3 starter and if Penny doesn't get fixed by Duncan there won't be a real #3 starter on this team.

Bullpen

Ryan Franklin had a great year last year in the first season he was the full time closer for the Cardinals. Still, he is 37 years old so he isn't the long term answer and who knows if he can pitch like he did last year again this year. The Cardinals bullpen is fairly set from the left handed side with Dennys Reyes and Trever Miller providing great, reliable pitching. Kyle McClellan is the right handed set up guy (or should be) and he was the loser for the 5th starter spot in the rotation. Jason Motte seems to have been in that set up role last year and he didn't really do anything that shows he deserved to keep it. Blake Hawksworth will also be in the running for the set up job as well. He had a pretty good year last year. Overall this is a good bullpen, but they are reliant on Franklin doing his job well and staying healthy. If he goes down, I don't think this bullpen would be nearly as strong, especially from the right handed side of the pen.

What I Like

I like the lineup for the Cardinals. They have guys who can get on-base combined with good home run hitters like Pujols, Holliday, and Ludwick. It's an overall strong lineup and I can even see progression from certain players in the lineup like Rasmus and Brendan Ryan. I think this will be one of the stronger lineups in the National League. I also like the top of the rotation for the Cardinals with Carpenter and Wainwright. After that, there are some question marks. Felipe Lopez and Jason LaRue are quality backups in the infield and at the catcher position. There is a lot to like about this team and I think it is the second-best team in the National League.

What I Don't Like

I have some picky concerns about the lineup. We don't know much about David Freese at third base, Ludwick regressed last year and we really don't know how much offense Molina or Ryan will be able to provide anything additional offensively compared to what they provided last year. These are more problems that aren't going to prevent the Cardinals from having a great season though, but prevent them from doing well in the playoffs. I really, really don't like the backup situation on this team. Skip Schumaker is the backup at nearly every outfield position and Felipe Lopez is the backup for nearly every infield position. Other than that, there is Ruben Gotay and Julio Lugo to be the main backups. That doesn't inspire confidence in me. Also, I would love to see the Cardinals have a better 3rd starter than Kyle Lohse. He's just a guy for me. If Brad Penny pitches well and Jaime Garcia pitches well then there is a chance Lohse will be the worst starter in the rotation. Of course if that happens, then the Cardinals are also probably going to have a strong rotation since that means Penny and Garcia are pitching well.

Final Record

The Cardinals are the cream of the crop in the NL Central. They should win this division. They have top-of-the-line pitching, great hitting, and a fairly well balanced lineup. Like any other team, injuries would really hurt them and they don't have great pitching depth at spots #1-#5 in the rotation. This team is really playing for the postseason at this point, so that is how I measure them. They are good enough to win the NL Central, but I still don't know if they are going to be good enough in the rotation and in the bullpen to win the National League pennant and make the World Series. If Brad Penny steps up and pitches like he can, and Kyle Lohse provides innings and doesn't let his ERA creep too high, this team could make the World Series. I don't think that will happen, but Cardinals fans should start saving up for postseason tickets now regardless.

Last year: 91-71
This year: 96-66

Tampa Bay Rays

Lineup

This is a pretty good Tampa Bay lineup. It is not AL East-good, but in the realm of baseball overall, it is a good lineup. Last year there were some pleasant surprises in the Rays lineup and they still didn't score enough runs to win the AL East. Ben Zobrist surprised everyone with his year and Jason Bartlett had a great year as well. Of course they also had some guys who didn't hit so well last year, like B.J. Upton and Pat Burrell...so in the end, what dive Zobrist and Bartlett may have this year could be offset by Upton and Burrell hitting the ball better. Matt Joyce appears to have been handed the RF spot and I am not 100% sure what to expect from him this year, so that makes him a huge question mark for me. Dioner Navarro is in a competition with Kelly Shoppach which isn't that exciting of a competition in my mind. I am disappointed in Navarro that it has come to this. Carlos Pena needs to bring his batting average up some, but he and Longoria form a very good middle of the order. I am pretty sure Carl Crawford is in a contract year, so he should have a fantastic year while playing for a new contract and I expect B.J. Upton's numbers to improve this year. This is a great lineup, but it is not good enough in the AL East.

Rotation

I love the Rays pitching staff. They are an example to teams everywhere on how to correctly and efficiently build a good young starting pitching staff while still having a budget. On paper this staff was on par with the Yankees pitching staff, but it was the run-scoring where they struggled some. This year is the first year David Price and Wade Davis will be in the rotation on a full-time basis and I look for both of them to thrive in that spot. A team could do a lot worse with them as their 4th/5th starters. I am actually not sure if James Shields is the true #1 starter in this rotation, I think that may be Matt Garza or Jeff Niemann, but Shields is penciled in at the #1 starter spot for now. In reality, I think it is one of those other guys who is the best starter on this team. Either way the Rays have a great backup starter in Andy Sonnanstine, who could probably start on many other teams. This team is built around young pitching and it is built well in this fashion.

Bullpen

This bullpen has been improved with the addition of Soriano to it. He is a legitimate, if not occasionally injured, closer and will strengthen this pen. Outside of him, there is still a lot to love about this Rays bullpen. J.P. Howell is a quality set up guy, as is Dan Wheeler. Grant Balfour is a little bit more of a mystery because he had one good year in 2008 and his career has been pretty ordinary other than that. Randy Choate is the LOOGY out of the pen, and a quality one at that, and Lance Cormier is the long relief guy with Andy Sonnanstine. This is a good bullpen with the addition of Soriano and with having guys like Howell and Wheeler in the pen. When the Rays get a lead, these guys can hold it.

What I Like

I love the offense of the Rays, even if they don't score enough runs to win the division. Longoria, Upton, Pena, and Crawford are four guys who are great at their positions and three of those guys still have room for improvement. I love the pitching staff. It may not have an elite #1 guy like other teams in this division have, but it is solid in spots #1-#5 and that is hard for a smaller market team to do. I like the backups for the Rays. Willy Aybar, Fernando Perez, and Reid Brignac are going to be a decent bench for the Rays. Hell, if Bartlett doesn't have a good year, Brignac could end up taking his spot at SS and that may not be a bad thing for the Rays long term. There is a lot to like in this Rays offense and pitching staff. The bullpen is more settled, in my opinion, this year and whoever loses the starting catcher job will make for a good backup. This team is on the rise, but this is such a tough division to win.

What I Don't Like

This team is good enough to win many divisions in MLB, just not this one. This doesn't mean the divisions should be realigned either. I don't like this at all, that the Rays really won't be able to win the division, but that's the brakes. I also don't like that guys like Bartlett and Zobrist had career years last year and may not be able to reproduce those years for this year. Of course, like I said, this may be offset by other players playing well this year. There isn't a whole lot to hate about this team, other than the division they are in. If/When Soriano gets hurt, then the bullpen is going to struggle because they really don't have anyone who I would feel comfortable in the closer spot or in the RH set up spot...assuming Dan Wheeler became the closer.

Final Record

This team isn't going to win the division if the Yankees and Red Sox stay healthy. It's just not happening in my opinion. This is depressing, but the Rays are a team that would do well in the postseason based on their pitching strength and the fact they can hit the ball. They may have a chance at the Wild Card if either the Yankees or Red Sox collapse a bit. If they start to struggle this year, I could see them trading a player or two (like they did Kazmir last year), and trying to reload and rebuild at the same time. This is a good, young team and they have the talent to win the division if there was one team they had to beat out for the division title...but there are two teams they have to beat and I just don't see them doing that this year. I see improvement in this team this year, especially among the young players, but it won't be enough to win the division.

Last year: 84-78
This year: 88-74

On Saturday I will preview the last three teams.