16 comments My 2010 NFL Mock Draft

I don't know if I like the change this year to having the draft on Thursday, Friday and Saturday, but I guess I will have to get used to it. I actually feel like I did mediocre-to-bad in my mock draft last year, I feel especially good about nailing, yeah nailing, the Darrius Heyward-Bey pick. Other than that, I wasn't terribly accurate last year. It's always tough to do a mock draft given the fact trades will occur (like the Jets-Browns trade last year which ended up with Mark Sanchez with the Jets), but I still like to get my draft down on paper. Let's see how bad my mock draft for the 1st round looks after the actual draft occurs.

It is pretty hard to mock up a draft towards the end, so some of my picks may look funny, but teams are always making surprise picks and I am trying to predict those surprises. Of course, many will just be wrong because conventional (and my) wisdom was wrong. As always, these are the players I think the teams will take, not who I actually think the teams SHOULD take.

1. St. Louis- Sam Bradford, QB

As I said last year, I am not a huge fan of taking quarterbacks so early in the draft unless you feel very confident they are the right guy. I thought the Lions should have taken an OT in the 1st round last year, but I can't blame them for taking Stafford. I feel much the same way about the Rams this year. They can't go into the season with the shit they have at quarterback now. Any draft pick at the quarterback position is almost an upgrade for this team. I'm not sold on Bradford for a few reasons, two of which are his injury history and the offense he played in with Oklahoma. I feel like the Big 12 didn't have that many stellar defenses over the past couple of years and for me, the performance against Florida in the 2009 National Championship Game still rings as a problem. It wasn't terrible, but it wasn't also great. Otherwise, he just threw well against Big 12 defenses...of course which quarterback didn't do that over the past couple of years?

Bottom line, the Rams need a quarterback and Bradford is probably the best quarterback available in this draft. Some people like Jimmy Clausen more. I don't, even though Clausen did play in a more pro-style offense in college.

2. Detroit Lions- Ndamukong Suh, DT

If the Lions go with any other pick, it will drive me crazy. I feel like Suh is the best player on the board here, the Lions need help on defense and he is a great guy to be the face of the franchise defensively. I am afraid the Lions are going to try and draft an offensive tackle, which ironically I suggested last year. They need an OT, there is no doubt about that, Jeff Backus doesn't always get the job done. Walter Football states the Lions should take Russell Okung here because:

The problem remains though; Jeff Backus is a good run-blocker, but he's a sub-par pass-protector and he has shown that he can't keep elite right defensive ends from penetrating into the backfield and plowing Matthew Stafford into the turf.

Unfortunately, many good offensive tackles can't stop good defensive ends from penetrating in the backfield on some occasions. The Bears are going to move Peppers around, Clay Matthews isn't just going to come from one side of the offensive line and even with Jared Allen in the division, I just don't find the reason to draft an OT here very compelling honestly. The Lions need an OT and I won't be offended if they took one here, but let's not get brain freeze over this one. Even with his injury history, I think Suh should be the choice in this spot. Draft Suh and let him be the guy he looks like he will be.

3. Tampa Bay Buccaneers- Gerald McCoy, DT

This pick can't be anyone but McCoy or Suh. I went to a Panthers-Tampa Bay game and it was brutal to watch Tampa Bay struggle to stop the run. Raheem Morris is a defensive guy and McCoy is nearly on par with Suh in my mind. The Bucs have to get one of the defensive tackles and if all hell breaks loose and neither are available, I say take one of the offensive tackles or just skip the pick. There is no defensive end, safety or receiver worth taking at this point for the Bucs.

(Isn't it ironic I say Big 12 defenses suck and the first 2 defensive players off the board are defensive tackles from the Big 12? Yes, that is some irony.)

One caveat...Raheem Morris worked under Monte Kiffin who coached Eric Berry at Tennessee. So there is a chance Morris drafts Eric Berry in this spot for this reason, and because Eric Berry is probably one of the best players in the draft.

4. Washington Redskins- Trent Williams

Okung or Williams? That's what it seems to be boiling down to. Okung should easily get this spot, but I don't think he will. I am not saying Williams is a workout-wonder or anything, but there was a time when he wasn't considered a left tackle...and then he had a great Combine. I'm going to go ahead and call him a potential bust at left tackle in this draft. I am beyond torn on this pick. Mike Shanahan doesn't generally miss on offensive tackles (Ryan Clady, Ryan Harris, etc.) and I think he is going to want a guy who can the best fit in the zone blocking scheme he runs. That guy would be Trent Williams...assuming he is a good left tackle, not a good right tackle. I think he is a right tackle and Okung should be the pick, but I think the Redskins protect McNabb at this spot and go with Williams.

5. Kansas City Chiefs- Russell Okung

I feel like the first part of this draft is too easy to pick, so I may be underthinking this. That makes me uneasy. This is such an obvious pick if the Redskins draft Williams, like I believe they will. Okung is the best natural left tackle in the draft and the Chiefs have to protect Matty Icccccccccccccce. Last year, he got sacked a ton and that can't obviously happen again. The Chiefs probably won't take a safety here and I don't believe Bulaga is the pick here. I would take Okung, put him beside Brandon Albert and be happy that Matt Cassel can't blame poor protection from the left side for a repeat of his 55% completion percentage and 69.9 rating this past year.

6. Seattle Seahawks- Bryan Bulaga, OT

Here's where it gets a little tricky for me. For me, Eric Berry is the logical choice here and I see no reason why the Seahawks would not draft him. On the other hand, they need a left tackle and Bryan Bulaga is still on the board. My gut tells me the Seahawks are taking Bryan Bulaga because they need someone to protect the quarterback. Eric Berry would be a much sexier choice in this spot though. I agree with the thinking that sexiness takes a back seat to actual need and the Seahawks take Bulaga.

7. Cleveland Browns- Eric Berry, S

They aren't taking a quarterback, unless they want to be like the Panthers and pay Jake Delhomme a shitload of money to sit on the bench next year. They also traded for Seneca Wallace and I just don't see them drafting Clausen here. Should they? Possibly, but they also shouldn't have signed Delhomme in my mind. For my money, Berry is the 2nd or 3rd best player in this draft. Sure, Holmgren is an offensive guy, but this move makes so much sense it just has to happen.

8. Oakland Raiders- Bruce Campbell, OT

I love picking for the Raiders. It is just easy to do. Just find a player who is an athlete out of college and has great peripheral numbers and the Raiders are going to want that guy. Last year it was Darrius Heyward-Bey and this year it is Bruce Campbell. Ironically he is from Maryland as well, but Campbell is a much better pick than Heyward-Bey was. I hate to say it, but this is not exactly a super-risky choice and if it works out Campbell could very well be a great offensive tackle. Of course, he is inexperienced and he could probably just as much fail based on the fact he looks like a workout-warrior-type player.

9. Buffalo Bills- Jimmy Clausen

I don't see how Clausen isn't the pick here. The Bills are changing to a 3-4 defense but there is no way I can see them taking a NT here and letting Trent Edwards stay at the quarterback position. Edwards isn't terrible, but the new coach/GM in Buffalo are going to want their own quarterback and Clausen is a great pick at #9. I am so torn on him right now. I have heard of his potential leadership problems like this and I really don't know what to think. He has had the world at his feet for a good portion of his teenage life. He called a press conference to announce he was going to Notre Dame and he was humbled a bit there. He looks like he has an ego and may be a dick, but that doesn't mean he is a bad quarterback. For me, he had no chance with the offensive line at Notre Dame blocking for him and I think he is a great pick for the Bills here.

If one of the OT's fall here, then possibly, that could be the pick for the Bills, but I don't see that happening. I personally think the Bills should work on their offensive line before drafting a quarterback, but there's no need to reach for an offensive lineman.

10. Jacksonville Jaguars- Derrick Morgan

To be honest, the best place for Tebow to end up would be Jacksonville. He has a built-in fan base, the Jaguars need an attractive player in this spot, and though they don't hate David Garrard he hasn't exactly shown himself to be the sexy quarterback that sells tickets. The Jaguars need to draft someone who sells tickets. There is NO WAY they can draft Tebow here. That's just a reach. I have no idea who the Jaguars will draft here. Drafting Derrick Morgan says they have given up on Quentin Groves and Derrick Harvey, drafting a running back makes sense but they do have Maurice Jones-Drew on the roster and it isn't a huge area of need, drafting a quarterback over Garrard seems unlikely, it is too early to draft a linebacker, and I don't know if they want to draft a wide receiver...again.

I think they may look to shore up their secondary and draft Joe Haden if they pass on a defensive end, but I think in the end Derrick Morgan may not get past them. For my money, I think Haden makes the most sense, but they have to get a pass rush. I see them trading this pick though. I am not smart enough to predict to whom.

11. Denver Broncos- Rolando McClain

I am very torn on this pick as well. Josh McDaniels isn't going to want another Brandon Marshall so I would not consider Dez Bryant here, I don't see him taking a nose tackle here either, but I do think the defense is the pick at this spot. Receiver is a huge need, but why take Bryant and risk having another Marshall? I am tempted to put Earl Thomas at this spot, but I don't think he will be the pick. Champ Bailey isn't getting any younger, so Joe Haden would also make sense. That being said, the pick is Rolando McClain, even if this feels high for him. Josh McDaniels doesn't give a shit what you or I think.

12. Miami Dolphins- Dan Williams

If Williams is still on the board, I think Williams makes a lot of sense. There may be a temptation for Parcells to draft Jean Pierre-Paul, but the Dolphins really need a nose tackle for the 3-4 defense and Williams is the best out there at this spot. This feels like an easy pick, which means Parcells will surprise me and not take him.

13. San Francisco 49ers- Sergio Kindle

I love Kindle and I think the 49ers are going to gamble that Haden will be there at #17 (since they have two picks courtesy of my favorite NFL team), but I don't think Kindle will be there at #17. For me, Kindle is the kind of guy who could have been a Top-10 pick. I thought he was fantastic at Texas last year and I can easily see him transitioning to the NFL with no problems. Nearly every mock I see has Haden going in this spot. The 49ers do need a tackle also, but there are no viable tackles in this spot for them, so that's out. Plus, I almost mocked Haden to the Jags at #10, so I am sort of hedging here and betting if Haden falls to #13, he will fall past the next three teams and the 49ers can get him there...if he falls that far.

14. Seattle Seahawks- CJ Spiller

Bryant or CJ Spiller? A quarterback's best friend is a running game and CJ Spiller is a dynamite game breaker. I think Pete Carroll will see a little Reggie Bush in Spiller. Many people believe Spiller is clearly the best running back in the draft and I am not sure I agree honestly. I really like Ryan Matthews and a team is going to get a good running back in Montario Hardesty. One thing is true, Spiller is fast and can make plays with the ball. The Seahawks have their OT and their future QB (they hope), there is no need to spend a high pick on a receiver when there are quality WR's available in the 2nd round. Spiller is a game breaker at RB.

15. New York Giants- Jared Odrick, DT/DE

I feel like I know this pick will be defense. The Giants had a bad defense last year and they have a new defensive coordinator. I thought the secondary could be a spot where the Giants will draft, but it feels like they will draft for the defensive line, knowing they had success in 2007 with getting pressure on the quarterback with the front four. Odrick is a Penn State guy and would seem to fit in well with the Giants.

16. Tennessee Titans- Jason Pierre-Paul, DE

The Titans need some help on the defensive line and they will be lucky to have him fall here. Pierre-Paul is a freak and they have to take him here if he is available. He was overshadowed for a year by George Selvie at South Florida and then came into his own this year. He's a fantastic athlete and the Titans seem to really like guys who are athletes on defense and it is an area of need for them. If Pierre-Paul is already taken, I can see it being another defensive lineman like Eversen Griffen.

17. San Francisco 49ers- Joe Haden, CB

I've tried to shy away from this pick all week because it seems to make so much sense. Haden is the #1 corner in the draft on most draft boards and the 49ers need cornerbacks. If Haden falls this far, he won't fall past this point. The 49ers have a defensive minded coach and I have them taking two defensive players with their 2 first round picks. I don't know exactly how I feel about Haden, I actually think Kyle Wilson may be the better NFL prospect, but if Haden is available at this point the 49ers have to take him.

18. Pittsburgh Steelers- Mike Iupati, OG

The Steelers need an offensive lineman. I don't know why they didn't draft one in the 1st round last year, that was just short-sighted in my opinion. I know the Steelers won the Super Bowl, but the moments that stood out during the playoffs often involved Roethlisberger running around on the field trying to find an open receiver. This feels like too Pittsburgh-y of a pick to me (and usually teams surprise us at this area of the 1st round), but it is an area of need and Iupati is the best player available at that position on the offensive line. If the Steelers want to run the ball and protect Roethlisberger then they will go with the offensive line in the first round.

19. Atlanta Falcons- Brandon Graham, DE/OLB

Brandon Graham was a tough pick here. I almost went with a linebacker, but I think ultimately if Graham falls this far, the Falcons have to upgrade their pass rush. They are in the same division as the Saints and the Falcons know from seeing Matt Ryan everyday in practice how crucial it is to put pressure on the passer. I am not as much of a Graham guy as some people seem to be, it seems like he is a "hot" prospect since there is a chance he could also play in a 3-4 defense and that is increasing his value. For me, he is a pretty safe pick and I feel like the team that gets him will have made a good pick though.

20. Houston Texans- Ryan Matthews, RB

I don't even know if Matthews makes sense in this spot or not. The Texans have Steve Slaton, but most teams have gone to the two-running back system and the Texans have had injuries in the past at this position. They need another running back and they will take Matthews here. I think a guy like Earl Thomas, Kyle Wilson could be the pick, and it would not shock me to see them go with the offensive line at this spot either. I think the Texans are in the process of building a great defense and this isn't a hugely deep draft in regard to the corner position, so I don't think the Texans need to draft early if they want an impact running back. A guy like Patrick Robinson, Brandon Ghee, Dominique Franks or Chris Cook will be available later in the draft, while I am not sure the Texans can wait that long at the running back position. Earl Thomas makes a lot of sense, but I think the pick is Matthews.

21. Cincinnati Bengals- Dez Bryant, WR

I did not choose Bryant to Cincinnati because he is a troublemaker and they seem to collect those (or have in the past), but anyone who saw the Bengals last year knows they need more offensive weapons around Carson Palmer. Right now the depth chart is Antonio Bryant, Chad Johnson, Jerome Simpson, and Andre Caldwell. Dez Bryant would be a great addition to the offense. Sure, they need a tight end, but is it really worth drafting Gresham over Bryant? I don't believe so. I have seen mock drafts with Taylor Mays here, but I don't see them going that way here. They need offensive help more.

22. New England Patriots- Jermaine Gresham, TE

I have a feeling the Patriots may trade down/up and either get a higher 1st round pick (mostly unlikely) or gain more 2nd round picks. I don't know if they will keep this pick. If they do draft at this spot, they need a tight end. Literally, they have almost zero on the roster right now. I am not all the way on the Gresham bandwagon, but Belichick has shown he will draft tight ends in the 1st round with guys like Daniel Graham and Ben Watson. Gresham is a tight end who can stretch the defense and the Patriots could use a guy like that. I can see them going defensive line, but I am predicting they may go that direction with their 2nd round pick(s), which is a luxury they have.

If Dez Bryant falls this far, I still think the Patriots will still take Greshem I think.

23. Green Bay Packers- Anthony Davis, OT

I am NOT an Anthony Davis fan. The whole "he has potential but hasn't shown it yet or doesn't seem to care to reach it" thing really perturbs me with him. The Packers need help on the offensive line and it is either Davis or Charles Brown and I think Davis will be the guy since he is rated higher. The Packers also could use this pick on a cornerback, but I think unless they are complete morons and saw how the line struggled last year, the pick should be an offensive tackle in this spot. The reason I see the Packers going defense is if most of the good offensive tackles are no longer available. If so, I see a cornerback in this spot. The sight of Kurt Warner picking apart the secondary has to be still fresh in the minds of Packers fans and coaches.

24. Philadelphia Eagles- Earl Thomas, FS

I love Earl Thomas. I think he is going to make a great NFL safety, so therefore I love this pick for the Eagles. I just hope they are smart enough to make the pick. Taylor Mays could also be the pick in this spot, but I personally believe Thomas will end up being the overall better safety. Thomas fills a need for the Eagles and they have spent time trying to improve their defense this offseason with the acquisition of Ernie Sims. The Eagles need a safety and I think Thomas will be the guy they choose. Andy Reid does love some defensive linemen, but they can't ignore a guy who could end up being a Brian Dawkins-type can they?

25. Baltimore Ravens- Kyle Wilson, CB

This seems to be an easy pick. Maybe I am under-thinking it a bit. The Ravens had a bad secondary last year that seems to be aging as well. They need help here and they have answered some of the offensive questions they have with getting Boldin and Stallworth, so they should shore up their secondary. Wilson is arguably the best overall cornerback in the draft, so they would be excited to get him here. I honestly don't know if I can see another direction they may go with this pick. I think this has to be it.

26. Arizona Cardinals- Jerry Hughes, DE/OLB

This may be a little bit of a surprise pick. The Cardinals lost Karlos Dansby in free agency and I see Jerry Hughes as a guy who could potentially fill this void. He can get pressure on the quarterback as he proved at TCU and he is a high character guy who will fit in well with a 3-4/4-3 defense. I think the Cardinals are going to be looking to get some pressure on the quarterback after the Packers playoff game and the loss of Dansby in free agency. I could see the Cardinals looking to perhaps looking at some offensive line help, but they aren't going to find a pass rusher like Hughes this late in the draft. They can draft OL later.

27. Dallas Cowboys- Taylor Mays, S

I don't know if I see the Cowboys going offensive tackle with their 1st round pick. I think Mays is going to be available and the Cowboys are going to have a hard time passing him up. Nate Allen is available in my mock draft also, but I think Mays is more of a Cowboys-type player and he can provide more of the hard hitting defense that the Cowboys displayed towards the end of last year. I think the offensive line can be shored up in the 2nd round and they don't have as great of a need at that spot as they do at safety.

28. San Diego Chargers- Jahvid Best, RB

I thought the Chargers should have drafted a running back last year. Instead they dealt with the corpse of LaDainian Tomlinson all year and paid for it with no running game. Perhaps they have learned from their mistake last year (of course all they had to give Tomlinson was a quality FB and quality offensive line and he could have done his job with a 4.0 ypc average. What's wrong with them?). I hope so. If Jahvid Best is available they need to draft him. Terrence Cody will be a tempting guy to draft since they could use a quality nose tackle, and defense is important, but there is no way they should ignore the fact they don't have an every down running back. Darren Sproles isn't that guy, Jahvid Best could be. This team needs a running game badly, they would be wise to go offense over defense in this situation.

29. New York Jets- Brian Price, DT/DE

I don't know how many people realize (outside of Jets fans) the Jets almost made the Super Bowl without their best defensive lineman, Kris Jenkins, who got injured earlier in the year. I think the Jets have upgraded their offense in the offseason and now they will look to make a great defense even better by drafting a defensive tackle. Brian Price has been mock drafted by many to go in the 2nd round, but I think he has 1st round talent and the Jets are going to jump all over him at this spot. Granted he is not a natural nose tackle and I don't know if he could play that position, but he could probably play the end in a 3-4 defense. Other people have a defensive end/linebacker as the spot here, but I think the Jets are going to get some insurance for the defensive tackle/defensive end position before they get a defensive end/linebacker hybrid.

30. Minnesota Vikings- Devin McCourty, CB

The Vikings need cornerbacks for Favre's Farewell Tour Third Edition to be successful. I have seen the offensive line and defensive tackle position getting some mentions here, but I think the Vikings want to pair a quality cornerback up with Antoine Winfield and there isn't much on the roster currently to do that. McCourty makes sense here and he is the best cornerback available at this spot. I don't mean to keep pushing offensive line choices to the 2nd/3rd round, but I think McCourty is the guy who should be the pick...which means he will either be off the board or not the pick for the Vikings at all if my previous mock draft accuracy holds true.

31. Indianapolis Colts- Maurkice Pouncey, C/G

I don't care whether anyone will say Bill Polian was right or not about the Colts offensive line being the reason they lost the Super Bowl or not, the Colts are going to look to upgrade the offensive line in this draft. They don't generally spend too many high picks on defense and they have a pretty good offense together already, so I think a versatile lineman like Pouncey is the perfect fit for this team. He can play guard or center, thereby being beside Jeff Saturday at the guard position or his replacement. If I am the Colts, I am placing a premium on improving the offensive line and Pouncey is the type of versatile offensive lineman that the Colts will love.

32. New Orleans Saints- Sean Witherspoon, LB

The Saints did pick up Alex Brown in the offseason and they do still have Will Smith. I almost had the Saints drafting Everson Griffen though because he provided such a great value and has such a high ceiling at this point in the draft. The fact remains they let Scott Fujita go to Cleveland and have a big hole at the linebacker position...and it just so happens the best outside linebacker in the draft is still available. I think they take Witherspoon in this spot. He has some questions about him from some scouts who have looked at him, but he provides great value here and the Saints have a need that should be filled. This would be a great pick for the Saints to make and I think they will pull the trigger on Witherspoon. Eversen Griffen wouldn't be a bad pick either though.

Ok, well that's my mock draft. Let's see how I did later tonight. I almost did a 2nd round also, but that would have just been embarrassing to see how wrong I was.