9 comments TMQ: It's Called a Mirror And I Have One For Gregg to Look At

This week Gregg Easterbrook does his annual "Bad Predictions" column where he criticizes other people's predictions they made before the NFL season began. I was reading Pro Football Talk yesterday, which is one of my favorite sites, and Mike Florio wrote this.

The item should from time-to-time include one or more of Easterbrook’s bad predictions in order to strip the “my own sh-t don’t stink” vibe that permeates the item.

Now that we’ve gotten a whiff of ultimate victory, we plan to redouble our efforts to ensure making the single worst prediction of the year.

“The guy who writes the ‘Bad Predictions Review’ for ESPN.com’s Page 2 will stop being a douchebag.”

I like Mike Florio.

This motivated me to not really care what Gregg wrote this week, but instead thought it would be fun rather than call Gregg an idiot based on making fun of others, I will just use Gregg's AFC and NFC Preview from earlier this year to show everyone he is an idiot. Here's a little tip, if you are going to write a "Bad Predictions" column, be sure you either include more than a paragraph or two on your own predictions or make sure you did a great job of predicting. Gregg did neither of these. It also took Gregg three separate columns to do his predictions, so they are pretty spread out. Here are his predicted records for each team, which are mostly not good, and I am also going to include any bad predictions he made for each team...then I will get to his column this week.

(This felt inspired yesterday and today I am not so sure, but like the head coach of my favorite pro football team thought before the playoff game this year, let's just not change the game plan and keep it like it is, what could go wrong? I know I say this once a week but I posted twice yesterday and I really need to give people time to read my previous posts, and I may have to at some point take a day off or get someone else to help me write, but for now I can't stop posting material. It's an addiction.)

We will start with how crappy Gregg did with the AFC Preview. Then I will tell you how many games he missed in each division.

New England Buffalo New York Jets Miami

Actual: 11-5 7-9 9-7 11-5

Gregg: 12-4 8-8 5-11 2-14

He missed the predicted records in the AFC East by 15 games.

Twenty years from now, football purists will be hard-pressed to remember much about the 2007 Giants. The 2007 Patriots, on the other hand, will never be forgotten.

Seriously, after the fantastic Super Bowl a year ago, this year's Super Bowl, Tom Brady's injury, and Matt Cassel's elevation to the next Scott Mitchell (ok, he is not that bad), I have already forgotten the Patriots went perfect last year. Maybe it is just me. One of the problems with Gregg is that other than team record, he just regurgitates what happened last year or delves off on an unrelated topic and doesn't make any predictions.

These days Terrell Owens is showing more team spirit than Favre; who would have believed that?

No one, which is exactly why this was not true. In November this year, Terrell Owens had the entire country, including the Cowboys team, counting who Tony Romo threw the ball to and how many times per game.

For all the egotism and nonsense that accompany him, Favre also brings heart, something the bland Jets need.

Favre must have provided this heart down the stretch as the Jets watched first a home playoff game, then the division, and finally a playoff spot pass them by. At least Favre provides that heart though.

Pittsburgh Cleveland Cincinnati Baltimore

Actual: 12-4 4-12 4-11-1 11-5

Gregg: 10-6 9-7 6-10 6-10

He missed the AFC North by 13 games.

Meanwhile, crafty, canny, cagey Cam "Cam" Cameron, after one of the all-time worst years of coaching in football history, leaves Miami to become the Baltimore offensive coordinator. Cameron has a good track record coaching quarterbacks, with two of his most recent pupils being Drew Brees and Philip Rivers. Although a former NFL head coach, he certainly will not in any way be threatening to Harbaugh.

That's the closest thing to a prediction we get from Gregg...if you don't want to include him thinking the Ravens should teach their pet ravens to fly around the field and say, "nevermore, nevermore." I am not sure how anyone could hear two ravens over thousands of fans, but whatever. I try not to analyze too many of his ramblings.

Indianapolis Jacksonville Tennessee Houston

Actual: 12-4 5-11 13-3 8-8

Gregg: 13-3 11-5 8-8 6-10

He missed the AFC South by 14 games.

TMQ predicts Indianapolis will go back to the Super Bowl this season. TMQ thinks a Peyton-versus-Eli Super Bowl is a realistic prospect, though I dread, dread, dread the marketing that would follow.

Sorry, but this was completely incorrect.

But the end of the force-out rule may hurt Indianapolis more than any other team, since the Lucky Charms often throw directly to the sideline, a difficult pass Peyton has mastered. And Eli has mastered it too -- they must have thrown to the side of the backyard a lot as kids.

I am sure both Eli and Peyton are the only quarterbacks that ever throw consistently to the sidelines and this force-out rule had no effect that I saw this year. Bad prediction.

The arrow points up for the Jags this season. Personnel director James Harris, who has taken his share of flak in the media, now should get some kudos -- he not only backed unknown David Garrard for the quarterback job, but also reeled in several other little-known, high-performing gents: Vince Manuwai, Paul Spicer and Maurice Williams among them.

Unfortunately the arrow ended up going down for Jacksonville, Garrard struggled this year and both Manuwai and Williams started one game this year (I am sure those wonderful injuries had something to do with it). Spicer had 3.5 sacks, not exactly high production.

Annually TMQ calls the Flaming Thumbtacks one of the best-run and best-coached teams. Now cracks are appearing in that reputation. In the offseason, the Titans had the most salary cap space in the league, yet made few aggressive signings; and considering the Collective Bargaining Agreement now has a cap floor as well as a cap ceiling, there is little to be accomplished by hoarding accounting space.

The cracks appeared so much that they had the best record in the NFL and now they have enough salary cap room to resign their (crappy) QB and Albert Haynesworth.

In the 2008 draft, Tennessee used its first-round selection on tailback Chris Johnson, who was a terrific college player but is slight and projects as a third-down back in the NFL. Use him at receiver! Tennessee's decision making continues to puzzle.

Horrible prediction. Chris Johnson ran for 1,228 yards this year and also had 43 receptions. Gregg doesn't understand in football a player can both run the ball and catch the ball. It doesn't have to be just one or the other. Gregg's decision making about what to make predictions about continues to puzzle me.

(TMQ has long believed most full-time football writers and sportscasters cannot diagram most standard football tactics.)

Bottom of the Barrel has long believed that TMQ does not understand basic principles of football, like when to go for it on fourth down and...........pretty much anything else involved with the sport of football.

San Diego Denver Oakland Kansas City

Actual: 8-8 8-8 5-11 2-14

Gregg: 12-4 9-7 5-11 5-11

He missed the AFC West by 8 games. Not too bad.

There is now a Philip Rivers Drive in Decatur, Ala. Rivers is 26 years old and throws a ball for a living. Has Decatur, Ala., never produced a person of substance to honor?

Um, yes they have. Philip Rivers, the four year starting quarterback at N.C. State, the #4 pick in the NFL Draft, and a Pro Bowl caliber NFL quarterback. Streets have been named after people for a whole lot less.

Now for the NFC Preview.

Dallas Philadelphia New York Giants Washington

Actual: 9-7 9-6-1 12-4 8-8

Gregg: 11-5 10-6 10-6 6-10

He missed the NFC East by 8 games.

A bonus clause specifies that if Adam Jones intercepts at least seven passes in two of the next three seasons with Dallas, about $10 million will be added to the back end of his contract. So what's going to happen? Jones may gamble for interceptions and not care if he gives up easy touchdowns; there's a bonus for interceptions, but no penalty clause for being burned deep.

Interceptions are just so selfish! It's all about Pacman Jones and his constant need to shine the spotlight on him by creating turnovers and getting his offense the ball back. That is why Pacman will never be a team player, he is just too focused on creating turnovers for his team. Only in Gregg's world are interceptions a bad thing.

At the Super Bowl, did the Giants play the greatest defensive game ever?

No, Peter King says, Pittsburgh and Arizona did.

Yet already the Giants' defensive unit is broken up by the retirement of Michael Strahan, the free agency departure of three other starters, and the season-ending injury to Osi Umenyiora. It was there, a great defense, and now it's gone.

They were in the top 10 in the four major defensive categories.

WRONG.

Green Bay Minnesota Chicago Detroit

Actual: 6-10 10-6 9-7 0-16

Gregg: 13-3 9-7 6-10 4-12

He missed the NFC North by 15 games.

Green Bay could now have the appealing Quinn at quarterback and the accomplished Williams at defensive tackle. General manager Ted Thompson's series of choices that left Green Bay without Quinn and Williams may have more to do with the Packers' future more than any aspect of the handling of Favre.

Absolutely, nearly every team in the NFL doesn't want two of the Cleveland Browns players right now. If they don't have a staph infection, then they suck at the sport of football. Good call.

How is Brady Quinn appealing to Gregg? Let's hear it straight from Gregg:

TMQ shook hands with Brady Quinn in LAX on the way back from the ESPYS. Quinn was wearing a sleeveless tee, and ye gods is he ripped: the most muscular quarterback I've ever seen.

Oh, I get it. You think he is such a cutie. This is disturbing.

Their big offseason addition was defensive end Jared Allen, who's talented but plays a selfish, my-stats-matter-more-than-winning style. Again, TMQ is not sold on these Vikes.

They won their division so you better start getting sold on them pretty quickly. Jared Allen only chipped in with 14.5 sacks and 3 FF, but to be fair 7 of those sacks were selfish because he pushed one of his own teammates out of the way to get to the quarterback and all of the forced fumbles were from when he ran on the field and stripped the ball from his own offensive teammate.

How the hell can sacks be selfish? If they can be, I want more selfish defensive linemen.

Tampa Bay Atlanta New Orleans Carolina

Actual: 9-7 11-5 8-8 12-4

Gregg: 10-6 8-8 6-10 5-11

He missed the NFC South by 13 games.

Atlanta also gave $15 million in guarantees to free agent Michael Turner, though Turner has never been an NFL starter. His exploits were based on coming in when the defense was already worn down by LaDainian Tomlinson. Let's see what happens when Turner is the man and getting pounded from the first quarter on.

He'll run for 1,699 yards and 17 touchdowns. I love the condescending and not-quite-believing tone Gregg had here and how he was VERY wrong, but doesn't mention this at all in his "Bad Predictions" column. Actually, he doesn't mention nearly any of his own bad predictions in his column.

The official bio further declares Smith has a "winning résumé." Considering the Atlanta roster, the coach may have to send his résumé into the game!

They went 11-5. Another miss.

Seattle San Francisco St. Louis Arizona

Actual: 4-12 7-9 2-14 9-7

Gregg: 11-5 7-9 7-9 6-10

He missed the NFC West by 15 games.

San Francisco put substantial bonus money into signing defensive backs Nate Clements and Michael Lewis, then finished last season ranked No. 22 in pass defense. This is doubly dismaying, since losing teams usually have good pass defense stats, because opponents don't have to throw the ball in the fourth quarter.

What a great and incredibly misleading stastistic! I bet a lousy pass rush has nothing to do with this number and that is why the 49ers overpaid for Justin Smith this past offseason. This is what I mean by the fact Gregg Easterbrook doesn't know much about football, he thinks it is the fault of only the secondary a team gives up passing yardage. Without a pass rush, a quarterback has all day to throw the ball and that can lead to loads of passing yards being accumulated.

This team has one playoff victory in the past 61 seasons;

Better make that 4 wins in the past 62 seasons.

For reasons I do not pretend to know, every summer, football pundits suggest that the coming year will finally be the Cardinals' year. It's never going to be the Cardinals' year!

They made the Super Bowl this year, Nostradamus! Big, big miss.

Receiver Anquan Boldin is demanding a new contract with star-sized numbers though he didn't post 1,000 receiving yards last season and has never had a 10-touchdown receiving season. Players who aren't that good demanding to be treated as stars is the sort of thing that happens to a terrible team.

I love it when Gregg cherry picks statistics to try and prove a point he wants to make. Touchdown receptions doesn't mean that a player is good or not good. The only reason Boldin did not make 1,000 yards in 2007 is because he only played 12 games...and he had 9 touchdowns. Good job dumbass in putting the arbitrary cut off for touchdown receptions for a "good" player right below Boldin's career high to help prove your incorrect point.

Anquan Boldin has played a full season of football twice in his 6 year career and has four 1,000 yard receiving seasons. Oh, and he had 11 touchdowns this year in 11 games. So not only does Gregg's cherry pick stat fail this year, he is also wrong again.

I am glad to have served as Gregg's mirror as he writes his column about how other people's predictions suck. It takes some kind of nerve to write an entire column about other people's bad predictions and only put two paragraphs in there about your horrible predictions.

Let's look at Gregg's bad predictions column. Now that you know what Gregg wrote, you can look at him and smile knowing he is as bad anyone else, but still has the balls to write a column like he is not.

There is fertile ground to be plowed after a Super Bowl in which the Arizona Cardinals appeared; needless to say, the world is not sagging under the weight of predictions that Arizona would reach the Super Bowl.

Including you, who actually seemed to be taunting the Cardinal's playoff ineptitude.

Tom Curran of MSNBC predicted John Fox was "likely" to be fired; the Panthers finished with the second seed in the NFC. Mike Florio predicted in The Sporting News that the Steelers would not make the playoffs and the Titans would finish last in their division (they won the AFC's top seed).

Gregg predicted the Panthers would be 5-11 and the Titans would be 8-8. Mmmm...not much better than them you did.

"Of course the Dolphins are not going to the playoffs this season," Judy Battista of The New York Times predicted; the Dolphins hosted a playoff game.

Gregg had them 2-14. That is good for the worst record in Gregg's predicted NFL, which constitutes missing the playoffs. His shit still don't stink though.

The key to Gregg's predictions is that he doesn't actually make any, he just gives team records which allows me to infer what he thinks the team will do, but doesn't give me too many predictions to mock.

The Times further foresaw, "Don't bet against a deep playoff push for the Seahawks"; "The Jags may make a deep playoff run"; and "The Ravens are going nowhere this season."

Gregg had Seattle going 13-3, Jacksonville at 11-5, and the Ravens at 6-10. Maybe he actually wrote the article for the New York Times that is he making fun of here because it seems he would agree with what is said.

Peter King of Sports Illustrated and NBC promptly debunked the story, reporting Favre had told him exclusively that a comeback was "the last thing I am thinking about." (For most people, "exclusive" means, "Yours is the only news organization I am speaking to." For Favre, "exclusive" means, "Yours is the only news organization I am speaking to at this instant.") Four days later, King said he was "98 percent certain" Favre would never play again. King wrote, "I talked to Brett for 20 minutes and he's content … to be married to his 465-acre spread in Mississippi and work the land."

On July 14, King wrote, "Favre has gone underground. My text messages for him and agent Bus Cook went unreturned." Forget that Tampa Bay business: King said on NBC, "Favre has definitely decided not to play for anyone except the Packers or Vikings."

This actually goes on and on, but I am going to do something I have never done before. Defend Peter King. These were not freaking predictions, this was actual reporting of a news story that Peter King was doing here. Not predicting, just reporting what he heard or was told. I always ask this question, but I will do it again. How does Gregg's editor let him get away with writing this? This is not a prediction, this is reporting...using sources and actual phone conversations, which generally does not fall under the "predicting" headline, unless newspapers are never actually giving the news to its readers, but predicting what news will happen. This is bad journalism.

Owing to King's track record, it worries me that he has predicted, "There is no danger of the NFL being interrupted by a labor dispute" in 2009 or 2010.

Nobody really ever knows what Brett Favre is going to do. Today a source on ESPN said he will retire, but will he really? Who knows? Peter King is an NFL Insider dammit, you can't blame him for his bad reporting because he gets mixed messages from people.

I want to see a Ten Things I Think I Think duel between TMQ and MMQB. The winner is the person who comes up with the most inane and useless observation. Additional points will be provided for the person who has an observation that is completely incorrect. The winner will receive nothing but my complete and utter disdain.

The day before the choice, The New York Times said McCain would choose Romney, Pawlenty or Joe Lieberman. No dark horse candidate, the Times said, was under consideration. What about a dark-moose candidate?

He's referring to Sarah Palin!

Ba-da-(swallows cyanide capsule)

Bucky Brooks of Sports Illustrated predicted Randy McMichael "could led the Rams back to prominence"; McMichael had 11 receptions as the Rams finished 2-14.

Gregg had the Rams at 7-9. Not much better than Bucky.

Read, mediate, serve others: Do these things, and you will feel justified in racing back to the remote, the swimsuit calendars and the microbrews when the football artificial universe resumes anew in the autumn.

Dear Gregg, please read about the rules of football, try not to second guess smart decisions coaches make, don't make a "Bad Predictions" column calling out others when your predictions were just as bad, try to understand there is a purpose for hundredths of a second, and try to make your column sound less like an amateur sports fan watching football for the first time. Do these things, and I will feel justified in not having to read your column next year.