Showing posts with label Seattle Seahawks. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Seattle Seahawks. Show all posts

Friday, October 23, 2015

4 comments Gregg Participates in Using the Same Hyper Specificity of Numbers He Criticizes Others for Using

In the comments of the TMQ post for last week some of us were trying to guess what the topic would be for this week's TMQ. It's not hard to guess, since he essentially just rotates a few topics on a weekly basis. Yet, I was still wrong. I thought TMQ would be about concussions, since another high school football player died over the past week. I was wrong. Gregg has repeated a different topic in this TMQ. It's the annual, "Look at how many points are being scored" TMQ, followed by the later season "I can't believe the defenses caught up with the offense" TMQ. So Gregg (again) talks about how many points are being scored in college and NFL football these days. He talks about it on a smaller level every week, much like he talks about the same topics every week in TMQ, but this week he is writing more than a paragraph about how pass-wacky and points-crazy football has become.

The football scoreboard won’t stop spinning.

Says Gregg Easterbrook every single year in TMQ.

So far this season, N.F.L. games are averaging 46.6 total points. That’s up from 45.2 points per game in 2014 and 41.2 points per game a decade ago.

Gregg used to write an entire TMQ dedicated to hyper specificity and how numbers shouldn't be rounded out to too many decimal points. For example, he likes to mock the time difference in an athlete who runs a 4.39 and 4.32 40-yard dash. He'll often write things like, "How do they know the difference in 0.07 seconds?" or write something sarcastic about how the 40-yard dash should be 4.39614 seconds. Gregg also likes to make fun of statistics that might say an NBA team hits a three-point shot every possession, with him saying, "How do you go down the floor 0.6 times?" and believing himself to be the smartest and most clever human on the planet for being snarky about this.

Well, knowing that...I have to ask how the fuck an NFL game scan feature 46.6 points? Is there a 0.6 field goal or an extra 0.6 point that I'm not aware of? Are certain touchdowns only worth a percentage of 6 points?

This is typical Gregg Easterbrook. He goes to great lengths to criticize hyper specificity in the use of statistics, yet has no issue with using hyper specificity himself when using statistics. The "unsophisticated" will laugh at his jokes about an athlete running a 4.562874 second 40-yard dash, but he hopes they won't notice that Gregg uses the same types of statistics he likes to criticize in TMQ. Gregg is special, so he can talk about an NFL game featuring 46.6 total points, while mocking another writer for claiming an NBA team hits a three-point shot every 3.6 possession. The rules, as written by Gregg Easterbrook, do not apply to Gregg Easterbrook.

Big-time college football, where Baylor and West Virginia just combined for 100 points, spins the scoreboard faster: 27 Division I programs are averaging more points per game than the highest-scoring N.F.L. club, the Patriots at 36.6.

HOW CAN AN NFL TEAM SCORE 36.6 POINTS IN A GAME? I'M GREGG EASTERBROOK AND I LIKE TO CRITICIZE OTHERS FOR THE THINGS THAT I MYSELF DO. 

One-hundred twenty-four Division I programs — that’s 97 percent — are averaging more points per game than the lowest-scoring N.F.L. team, the 49ers. North Texas, Old Dominion, Vanderbilt, Army, the Roadrunners of the University of Texas at San Antonio: All score more than the Niners.

What a coincidence! 96.8%, make that 97%, of NFL teams are also scoring more points per game than the lowest scoring NFL team. That's so weird isn't it? It's almost like college teams score more points, but the percentage of teams that score more than the 49ers doesn't change regardless of whether that team is in the NFL or Division I NCAA.

You know Gregg didn't look up the percentage of NFL teams that score more than the 49ers and was very proud of himself when he saw the 97% number that showed how many Division I teams score more points than the lowest scoring NFL team. It means SO MUCH and proves how high-scoring college football is. He just forgot to look at the percentage of NFL teams who are also outscoring the 49ers. Whoops!

The fad for hurry-up tactics and rules changes designed to encourage pass completions are some of the reasons. But there’s an often overlooked factor: New safety rules favor offense.

This is literally one of the most cited reasons for why NFL offensive scoring is at an all-time high. Defensive players and other NFL analysts have stated over and over and over and over again that the NFL has taken steps to protect offensive players and it makes it more difficult for defensive players to do their job. Yes, the new rule changes to encourage completions are a reason for increased offense as well, but the fact the safety rules favor the offense is also often cited as a reason also. Perhaps Gregg believes if he just says this is an overlooked factor then it will suddenly become true and he won't be wrong. 

The most common deliberate helmet-to-helmet hit was by a safety against a receiver on a crossing pattern; a linebacker using his helmet as a weapon against a ball carrier was second-most common.

Now this form of contact is illegal, which benefits offense; especially, assisting the short-passing tactics that have proliferated.

Right. The short-passing tactics have proliferated because of the new rules. Hence, the new safety rules that favor the offense is not an overlooked factor in the increased offense. 

Sunday night at Indianapolis, the Patriots’ Julian Edelman repeatedly ran “low crossers,” short patterns directly in front of Tom Brady, who targeted 10 throws Edelman’s way.

One of the overlooked reasons why the Patriots are so good on offense is that Julian Edelman finds a way to get open on these short crossing patterns. No one ever thought of this before I broached this subject right now. 

Only once on these 10 targets was Edelman hit in the helmet. A decade ago, he would have absorbed several deliberate helmet-to-helmet impacts when prancing over the middle in this fashion; a generation ago, he would have been drilled in the head or the back even after an incompletion sailed past.

Right. NFL receivers aren't as afraid to run a route over the middle of the field, which means the middle of the field becomes more open in the passing game, which means there will be more scoring, which means offense will increase, and because this is the widely known result then the new safety rules that favor the offense is not overlooked. 

The rules need to become stricter still, especially at the high school level, where the most football is played.

But football’s safety initiatives are in almost every case a boon to the offense. Let the scoreboard spin!

But who knew the new safety rules were having such an effect on scoring? It's such an overlooked factor!

Sweet Play of the Week. Denver’s Aqib Talib sprinted 63 yards for an interception return touchdown at Cleveland, the Broncos’ third pick-six of the young season. Not only was the play sweet — the Broncos’ defense has allowed nine touchdowns while scoring four, a net of just five touchdowns for the opposition in six games. Denver’s No. 2 overall defensive ranking is the key to the Broncos’ 6-0 start.

Is this the highly-drafted, highly-paid glory boy Aqib Talib that returned this interception for a touchdown? Interesting how Gregg leaves off the draft position of Talib. We know Gregg wouldn't leave off the draft position of Talib or any of the other members of the Broncos defense if they were lowly-drafted or undrafted players. The Broncos defense starts four 1st round picks and a 2nd round pick, while having two 1st round picks as backups. Naturally, Gregg leaves out that the No. 2 overall defense in the NFL has six 1st round picks making a contribution to the team. 

Later in this TMQ, Gregg will mention the draft position of the Patriots offensive players, but when he doesn't have a point to prove about how great undrafted players are, then Gregg feels it isn't necessary to note the draft position of a team's offensive/defensive unit.

But Peyton Manning’s fade is accelerating. He has seven touchdown passes versus 10 interceptions, a ratio that is not sustainable.

No, this ratio is absolutely sustainable. The ratio isn't sustainable if the Broncos want to keep winning football games, but overall, this ratio of throwing more interceptions than touchdown is sustainable. Manning could keep doing this. 

He’s been “throwing with his body,” a bad sign.

Gregg must have read this somewhere and then repeated it here in order to make it seem like he knew what he was talking about. This is too much like analysis for me to believe Gregg thought of this himself. 

In overtime at Cleveland, Manning tossed the ball directly to the wonderfully named Browns linebacker Barkevious Mingo, as if Mingo were running the pattern.

And what round was Barkevious Mingo drafted in? The first round. This would be relevant if Mingo was undrafted or was considered "unwanted" by Gregg, but because he was drafted in the 1st round, Gregg fails to mention this little fact. Only undrafted players get their draft position noted, because Gregg wants his readers to believe undrafted players produce more than highly-drafted players produce.

Sour Recurring Play of the Week. A week ago versus Cincinnati, Seattle’s vaunted Legion of Boom secondary twice simply ignored a tight end running straight up the field, leaving him uncovered for a touchdown. Now it’s Seahawks 23, Panthers 20 with 36 seconds remaining, Carolina ball on the Seattle 26, Panthers out of timeouts. Carolina tight end Greg Olsen runs straight up the field, the “seam” route on which a good tight end is most dangerous.

This is the route in which a good tight end is most dangerous. Don't be confused when Gregg claims a good tight end is most dangerous when lined up to the far side of the field with single coverage on him. In that situation, a good tight end is most dangerous regardless of the route he runs. So whatever route that a good tight end runs from whatever position on/off the line of scrimmage that results in a touchdown is the route in which a good tight end is most dangerous. It changes based on what point Gregg is trying to prove at that very moment. 

No Seattle defender so much as attempted to cover Olsen, who caught the winning pass. The highly hyped Seattle secondary stars Richard Sherman and Earl Thomas were yelling and gesturing at each other about who was to blame before the play was even over.

I laugh a little bit at the Seahawks blaming coaching (and anyone but themselves) for the loss, but it seems there were two play calls given to the Seahawks defenders, so that's probably why Thomas and Sherman were gesturing to each other. The crowd noise prevented the Seahawks from getting the correct play call, so that's the reason for the confusion. One could ask how the Panthers got a play call in (late as it may be) and the Seahawks couldn't manage to do the same at home, but the truth is Thomas and Sherman were blaming each other because they didn't know at that point there had been two defensive plays called. So they really both believed the other screwed up.

This is a good example of what I've said on repeat, which is that defensive players can't just freelance like Gregg thinks they can. A defensive player can't just run back into zone coverage when the defensive called for is man coverage, despite what Gregg will claim when he criticizes a defender for not "covering" the offensive player. Gregg doesn't seem to understand defensive players have to all work in concert with each other based on the play call or else the defense will be extra shitty.

Stretching back to the Super Bowl, the Seahawks, whose trademark is monster defense, have been unable to hold fourth-quarter leads in five of their last seven outings. Since kickoff of the Super Bowl, Seattle is minus-48 points in the fourth quarter and overtime.

The Seahawks have been traditionally very good at holding leads late in the game, so sometimes the balance shifts back the other way. Perhaps that is what is being seen now. 

As for the Colts play — ye gods. Indianapolis lined up to punt, then nine guys shifted far wide in a variation of the swinging-gate PAT look. In the center of the field were the snapper and safety Colt Anderson.

Doesn't Gregg mean "undrafted, unwanted safety Colt Anderson"? I guess not. 

The whole point of a swinging gate is if the defense doesn’t put enough guys in front of the snapper, then run straight ahead; if the defense puts enough guys in front of the snapper, then pitch sideways where blockers exceed defenders. New England positioned four guys in front of the snapper, meaning one to block four. Yet the Colts chose the up-the-middle move: instant loss of yardage.

You just can't trust undrafted players to make smart decisions in important situations like this. Doesn't Gregg know this?

Not clear what, if anything, the Colts were thinking. Sour.

Griff Whalen went to Stanford and Colt Anderson went to Montana, so these players from non-football factories just don't know how to act in tough situations. It's not their fault, but if they were from football factory schools then they may have a better idea of how to think better in tight games against elite competition. 

Stats of the Week. The Panthers are on a 9-0 streak in the regular season.

I'm glad he clarified "regular season" or else everyone would have thought the Panthers won the Super Bowl last year. 

BOLO of the Week. All units, all units, be on the lookout for defensive lineman Marcell Dareus, accused of football grand larceny. Just before the season, he signed a contract with $60 million guaranteed; so far he has one sack.

A couple of things: 

1. Dareus does get sacks, but it's not his entire job as a DT or DE in a 3-4 defense. He does other things to earn his contract. 

2. Dareus states that he has been dropped back into coverage a lot and hasn't had the chances to get sacks. Whether it is true or not, I'm not sure, but it's hard to get sacks as a DT/DE if you are being dropped back into coverage rather than consistently rushing the quarterback.

What Makes Samuel L. Jackson and Cobie Smulders Hill Fly? The tiny drones that are driving everyone crazy can float on four downward-facing fans because their payloads, typically a camera and transmitter, weigh so little. In Marvel’s Avengers movies, S.H.I.E.L.D. has a flying aircraft carrier that uses four downward-facing fans. How big would the fans need to be to lift an actual aircraft carrier?

TMQ is shorter this year and Gregg still has to kill space. Unbelievably believable. 

Assume S.H.I.E.L.D. engineers used minimum-weight criteria to trim the helicarrier weight to 50,000 tons. Assume that the fans themselves have no mass, generate no drag, and that their power source is weightless — maybe they run on arc reactors. How big would four downward-facing fans need to be to lift 50,000 tons? Tweet your calculation to @EasterbrookG.

They would need to be as big as Gregg's ego multiplied by how many times Gregg has misled or lied to his readers. That's some big fans. 

Hire an Orangutan. Steve Spurrier just resigned as South Carolina coach: The boosters were in an uproar because the Gamecocks were 2-4. 

This is what I talk about when I say Gregg misleads his readers. The way Gregg writes this sentence indicates that Spurrier resigned because the boosters were in an uproar, when this isn't entirely the truth. Spurrier was 70 years old, so he wasn't going to be coaching for much longer anyway. I don't know, and Gregg doesn't know, if the boosters being in an uproar caused his resignation. Everything I've read says this isn't true, especially since Spurrier is one of the most successful coaches in South Carolina history. Gregg tries to tie the boosters in with Spurrier's resignation when I don't think this is the truth.

Steve Sarkisian just got the heave-ho at U.S.C.: He’d appeared in public seeming to be drunk, but the real issue may be that boosters were in an uproar over the Trojans merely being 12-6 with the whistle around his neck.

No Gregg, the real issue is that Steve Sarkisian has a really bad drinking problem and became an embarrassment to the university. So he got fired for bringing embarrassment to the school and now he is allowed time to face the severe drinking problem he seems to have. I really doubt USC fired Sarkisian because of his 12-6 more than they fired him because he seems to be an alcoholic. Also, "the real issue may be...," is some mealy-mouth language that Gregg would normally criticize when seen in the writing of others. 

These three coaching changes share in common what T.M.Q. calls the Orangutan Theory of Division 1: that football-factory programs have such incredible built-in advantages in recruiting power and gimmick schedules that an orangutan should be able to lead one to bowl eligibility.

Except it doesn't work that way at all. Before hiring Steve Spurrier, South Carolina had a problem keeping elite talent in state, had 10 winning seasons since 1980 and had won 10 games or more once in the history of the program. These so-called football factory teams have an advantage in money, but that doesn't always translate to success on the field without the right players and coach. 

Not only do the top recruits flock to prestige programs like South Carolina and U.S.C., but they also play under gimmick conditions...Such schedules are as if the Denver Broncos played twice as many games at home as away, and one of the home games was against an Arena League team.

Right, but if every NFL team played an Arena League team? Then the playing field would be somewhat leveled. I'm not defending how college teams schedule, but it's important to know that recruits don't just flock to a school. Elite recruits didn't flock to South Carolina before Steve Spurrier was there. Gregg remembers it that way now, because he's used to how things are with Steve Spurrier as the head coach, but it's not always been that way. 

In the wake of the Spurrier and Sarkisian departures, the sports world — “SportsCenter,” Sports Illustrated, ESPN’s “College GameDay” — wondered when glory would return to these programs. Unless I missed it, not a word was said about the educational goals that are the ostensible purpose of the universities in question.

That's because it is a show called "SportsCenter" and "College GameDay" and a magazine called "Sports Illustrated." If these shows were called "AcademicCenter" or "College Educational GoalsDay" or "Academics Illustrated" then Gregg would have a point. They aren't called that, so Gregg has no point. These shows and this magazine are about sports. For better or worse, discussing the academic goals of the university is not a part of the discussion. Sports are what the discussion on these shows and in this magazine revolves around. 

Spurrier’s team had a 51 percent graduation rate, including a 46 percent rate for African-Americans. He should have been given the boot for exploiting players without ensuring their educations: Instead all the boosters and the networks seemed to care about was his won-loss ratio. South Carolina is an SEC school. CBS has the contract for that conference, and benefits when the Gamecocks win. Where is the “60 Minutes” segment on SEC football graduation rates?

This 51% graduation rate and 46% graduation rate for African-Americans are irrelevant without knowing the five year graduation rate of the South Carolina student body and for African-Americans at the university. What if the five year graduation rate at South Carolina is 47% or the five year graduation rate of African-Americans is 37%? All of a sudden, 51% and 46% look pretty good for a graduation rate. Naturally, Gregg doesn't provide the five year graduation rate for South Carolina because either (a) he's not smart enough to realize it gives context to the point he wants to prove or (b) it would make his point about the graduation rate of football players under Steve Spurrier seem weak. Gregg is not above misleading his readers when faced with information he doesn't think proves what he wants to have proven.

Sarkisian’s team was graduating 47 percent of players, including 38 percent of African-Americans; Kiffin’s team had a 48 percent graduation rate, including 39 percent for African-American players. ESPN and Fox, which broadcast Pac-12 football, devoted lots of air time to the recruiting and ranking ramifications of the Kiffin and Sarkisian dismissals. Did either so much as mention graduation rates?

Again, without the context of the graduation rate for the student body as a whole, these numbers don't mean a hell of a lot. Also, ESPN and FOX broadcast Pac-12 football. They broadcast sports, so that's why they don't mention academics. Is this really such a difficult point to understand? 

And yet many big football programs exploit African-American football players for profit without giving them the level of support to get the bachelor’s degree that is most people’s ticket into the middle class, or even distract them from education by demanding all their time and effort go into football. In many cases the boosters and boards of trustees don’t care, and the sports broadcasting world, which takes a cut of the exploitation, stays silent.

Yes, that's how it works. Much like I criticize what Gregg writes in TMQ, while the company that takes a cut of the revenue TMQ brings in (haha...I can't imagine it does bring too much revenue in), stays silent on how Gregg will mislead his readers.

Throw to the Dancing Tree! This week’s favorite YouTube play is the Francis Owusu catch against U.C.L.A. The Bruins gained 505 yards on offense and lost by 21 points. Over in the Big Ten, Rutgers defeated Indiana, 55-52; the Hoosiers gained 627 yards and lost. Such stats are contemporary college football in a nutshell.

In the highlight video, check the dancing tree in the background. How come N.F.L. teams don’t have dancing trees?

Because no NFL team has a dancing tree as their mascot. That seems like the simplest and most correct answer. 

As part of the general conservatism of N.F.L. coaches, most rarely send an all-out rush against a punter. Often, only a few rushers make a halfhearted gesture. During the contested portion of the same game, New Orleans punted twice: Atlanta sent seven against one punt and five against the other. Viewers and spectators tend to yawn during N.F.L. punts. But watch the rush — it’s usually a token effort, and rarely an all-out attempt to block the kick.

NFL teams want to set up a return. That's what they want to do. When a team rushes at the punter in an attempt to block the punt then they run the risk of roughing the punter or running into the punter. Also, they can't set up a punt return if they try to block the punt, which is something a team likes to do in order to get better field position. 

On the final down of the Michigan State-Michigan game, the Spartans rushed 10. This might have made the punter, who dropped the snap, nervous. He might never have seen a 10-man rush. In standard-punt fashion, Michigan players brushed the defender in front of them, then headed downfield to cover the punt. As the kicker dropped the snap, there were three Wolverines trying to protect him from 10 Spartans.

This was a completely different situation because there was only 10 seconds left in the game and Michigan State had to block the punt in order to have a chance at winning the game. Setting up a return did not matter, because they were going to lose if they didn't block the punt. So comparing this situation to any other situation where there ISN'T 10 seconds left is to misunderstand situational strategy and why Michigan State sent 10 players to block the punt. Gregg consistently misunderstands situational strategy and how a strategy may be effective in one situation, but not in another situation. 

4th Down Bot Jumps Out of His Treads to Cheer for Michigan State. T.M.Q. feels the Spartans’ improbable last-play victory was the football gods rewarding Michigan State for going for it four times on fourth down. Though none of the tries succeeded, this was bold — and fortune favors the bold. 

Gregg is very tenuously trying to tie the Spartans going for it on fourth down four times with them winning the game. Of course, if the Spartans didn't block this punt (or cause the punter to fumble), then Gregg would have not mentioned at all how many times Michigan State went for it on fourth down because it would not have gone to prove his point. In a world where Michigan State doesn't win this game, but they went for it on fourth down four times, Gregg would simply leave out how many times they went for it on fourth down. Fortune didn't favor the bold and Gregg is full of shit by insisting this is always true. Instead, Gregg is full of shit because he insists that going for it on fourth down helped the Spartans win this football game. It was a fumbled punt that helped the Spartans win this football game.

Leading, 23-21, Michigan faced fourth-and-2 on the Michigan State 47 with 10 seconds remaining. Michigan Coach Jim Harbaugh called a timeout to weigh his options. The worst was the one Harbaugh chose, a standard punt with the blockers abandoning the punter to sprint downfield. Other options:

Michigan could have kept in 10 men to defend the punter, 

And then punted the football. Maybe Harbaugh was afraid Michigan State would get a good return and have a field goal opportunity. This was the best choice though. 

and instructed him to punt out of bounds. The Wolverines could have gone for it, and if failing to convert, defend a passing heave from midfield.

Okay, no. But even if Michigan had kept 50 guys back to defend the punter then there is a chance he still would have dropped the ball. Also, I'm not trusting a college punter to kick the ball out of bounds, nor am I going for it on fourth down and letting Michigan State have a chance for a heave from midfield. 

Michigan could have put 10 blockers around the quarterback and instructed him to hold the ball as long as possible, then hurl it high toward the Spartans’ end zone. The clock probably would have expired with the ball in the air.

Yes, but if the clock doesn't expire with the ball in the air then Michigan State is in perfect field goal range. There are so many things that could go wrong here. I'm not even sure how Michigan could have put 10 blockers around the quarterback and still snap the football. Wouldn't they need to have guys lined up on the line of scrimmage prior to the snap? So if a receiver or offensive lineman starts running back to defend the quarterback from pass rushers, there is a good chance a blitzing Michigan State linebacker or a corner could beat the Michigan player back before he got a chance to set up and defend the quarterback. 

And throwing the ball in the air with the hopes time expires while it's in the air and a Michigan State player doesn't catch it? What kind of bullshit is that? 

But the primary factor surely is that big-money coaches are conditioned to do the “safe” thing and send in the kicker. That way the players are blamed — today everyone blames the Michigan punter — rather than Harbaugh, who botched the call.

It sort of is the Michigan punter's fault. He had to catch the ball and then punt it. Somehow Gregg doesn't trust the Michigan punter to catch the ball and punt it, but he trusts the Michigan punter to kick the ball out of bounds and trusts the Michigan quarterback to run around and heave the ball up in the air as time expires. These are less "safe" things to do, so they are obviously better decisions. 

New England’s continuing offensive success — the Patriots are No. 1 in scoring, No. 2 in yards — comes despite the fact that the Patriots have no receiver drafted in the first round and, with tackle Nate Solder injured, no one on offense who was a first-round selection. If the M.V.P. vote were held today, T.M.Q.’s ballot would be cast for the Flying Elvii undrafted rookie free-agent center David Andrews.

And this would be ridiculous because David Andrews is the member of an offensive line that has five members who all work best in concert with each other, thereby making it difficult to know which of these offensive lineman is the best individually. There are ways to tell which offensive lineman is performing well, but we all know Gregg pays zero attention to these metrics. He sees Andrews is on a good offensive line and that he is undrafted, so thereby awards him the MVP. 

Manly Man Play of the Week. New Orleans leading Atlanta 17-7 in the third quarter, facing fourth-and-goal on the Falcons’ 2, the hosts go for it, touchdown, and never look back...To avoid criticism, N.F.L. coaches usually do the “safe” thing in this situation. Engaging a risk — a mild risk, considering — may have helped Sean Payton revive the Saints’ season.

Or it may not have helped Sean Payton revive the Saints' season. One thing is for sure, if the Saints season is revived then it has nothing to do with how the Saints are playing out on the football field, but has everything to do with the Saints going for it on fourth down here. Because fortune favors the bold, unless the Michigan punter doesn't drop the football against Michigan State, in which case fortune does not favor the bold. Naturally. 

Manly Man Postscript. The Colts tried everything they could to snap their losing streak versus New England — onside kick, fake punt, three fourth-down attempts. That this game was close, while other recent Indianapolis-Patriots contests have been blowouts, shows the value of aggressive tactics. New England is clearly the better team, but playing aggressive kept the Colts close.

This is how full of shit Gregg is. He claims fortune favors the bold. Fine, I like teams that take risks too, but Gregg wants his readers to believe if a team is bold then that team will win the game. This is how Gregg's mind works. BUT, because the Colts were bold and still didn't win the game and everybody who follows the NFL knows this, he makes up some bullshit about how the Colts ALMOST won the game because they were bold. So apparently this isn't really a loss for the Colts because they were bold. Fortune favored the bold and playing aggressive kept the Colts close, so it was almost like a win, thereby proving Gregg's point correct. Gregg is now so desperate he's trying to claim fortune favors the bold in simply keeping a football game close. Keep lowering that bar in order to prove your ridiculous black and white theories correct, Gregg.

By the way, a very reasonable argument can be made if the Colts had not been so bold in trying a fake punt then they could have come away having won this game.

In all N.F.L. annals, there have been 11 contests with at least 90 points scored, most recently Broncos 51, Cowboys 48 in 2013. Contrast that to Baylor, which since 2011 alone has appeared in 14 games in which at least 90 points were scored. The N.F.L.’s highest-scoring contest ever was Washington 72, Giants 41 in 1966. In the last five seasons, Baylor has played five games generating more points than that N.F.L. contest: West Virginia 70, Baylor 63 in 2012; Baylor 67, University of Washington 56 in 2011; Baylor 61, T.C.U. 58 in 2013; and Baylor 73, West Virginia 42 in 2013.

There are only so many ways of saying, "College football games have a lot of points scored in them," and I think Gregg has written some variation of them all at this point. 

Chip Kelly Skedaddle Watch. In September, T.M.Q. asked, “How long till Kelly skedaddles back to college?” With Kelly’s name raised in connection with the U.S.C. job — surely, not planted by his agent! — Kelly Skedaddle Watch becomes a running item.

Can it not become a running item? If Chip Kelly does fail in the NFL, the odds of him going back to college are very high. He has succeeded in college football before, so it's very natural he will end up back in college football at some point. Bill Walsh was very successful in the NFL before retiring and ending up back as the head coach of Stanford. So maybe Kelly fails in the NFL, or even succeeds, then he could still end up back coaching college football. Bill Walsh is a good example of this. Kelly going back to coaching college football after this time in Philadelphia is through means about as much as Gregg leaving an online sports site like ESPN.com for a newspaper like "The New York Times" would mean. I don't think Gregg considers himself to have skedaddled back to a newspaper gig. Of course, the rules Gregg has for others are not rules he has for himself.

Wednesday, June 10, 2015

6 comments MMQB Review: Russell Wilson Free Agency Panic Edition

Peter King did a insanely early power ranking of all the NFL teams in last week's MMQB, as well detailed how he was accosted by panhandlers on the streets of Seattle while he was handing out cash to some of these panhandlers. Where were the police to arrest these people who weren't committing a crime? Peter also detailed the Vikings and Adrian Peterson standoff which was resolved soon after he posted MMQB. This week Peter talks about how the Russell Wilson contract talks may be in trouble (I can't help but think this is the cousin to the "Will the Ravens let Joe Flacco walk?" discussion a few years ago), discusses the internal destruction of the 49ers, and hits his readers with the revelation that Canada is a big country. Seriously, Russell Wilson isn't leaving Seattle. It's not happening, so any discussion about why contract talks may be in trouble are pointless. The Seahawks have another year of Wilson's contract and then can franchise him for two years. Every negotiation hits tough points and Wilson isn't leaving Seattle, just like the Ravens weren't going to let Joe Flacco hit free agency after he won a freaking Super Bowl.

In my last column for a spell—hooray! (your emotion, not mine)—I’ve got a couple of annual events.

One week off, writes two columns, and then takes a month off. It seems Peter is on the "Bill Simmons Schedule of Column Writing." Now all Peter has to do is to promise weekly mailbags when he gets back from vacation, then get fired, and the similarities will be too eerie.

First: My collection of commencement speech snippets, from the Self-Depracating Graduation Line of the Year by former president Bush (the younger) at the Southern Methodist University graduation, to the best advice I’ve read from any speaker this year, by ABC News correspondent Martha Raddatz to the Kenyon College grads in Ohio. Second: Part one of the annual Fathers Day book review section, a really interesting book by St. Louis Cardinals manager Mike Matheny on the crisis in youth sports and his little-engine-that-could recipe to fix it.

I think I'm one of the few who don't like this book review and graduation speech section. The book section is more tolerable, but the only thing worse than hearing someone give a speech is having to read about that person's speech. People talk a lot already, and even when the speakers are giving out great advice, I tend to wish Peter would skip the commencement speech section. Alas, I tend to skip it.

Now, I didn’t want a 12,000-word June column, so the Matheny review is today and the rest of the books I plan to cover Wednesday in my weekly mailbag column.

Or you could just put the commencement addresses on a piece of paper in your desk, then lock the drawer. That seems like a good idea too.

While I’ll address the Niners here, I’m leading with another ominous note from an NFC West team that’s not getting much attention. And maybe it shouldn’t. Yet.

It shouldn't. Russell Wilson isn't going anywhere. He's staying a Seahawk. The team and Wilson have almost three more years to work a contract out if they choose to. This is a concern on the level of worrying the Ravens wouldn't re-sign Joe Flacco. It's simply not happening.

But something about the dragged-out negotiations, and apparently fruitless ones, between Seattle and quarterback Russell Wilson is starting to raise alarm bells.

Both sides are playing hardball until it's time to get serious and come to a real agreement. This type of thing happens all the time in sports. Wilson is pretending he will go play baseball, the Seahawks are trying to get him to sign a new favorable contract for them and Wilson wants to hold out for as much money as possible. The Seahawks aren't going to let Wilson become a free agent nor will they trade him immediately if negotiations are dragging out.

The Seattle quarterback is due $1.542 million this year, the final season of his four-year rookie contract. It’s been thought for some time that 2015 would be the time a new Wilson deal would get done, seeing that the first opportunity to re-do the deal of a third-round player who has monstrously out-performed his contract is in year four. That’s now.

And no contract was signed, so obviously there is a massive problem that is bigger than the fact these are simple negotiations on a long-term contract that may take some time to complete while each side takes a tough negotiating stance.

What Schneider said is something he’s said a thousand times, in various forms. No one is bigger than the team...Any general manager worth his salary would say that. And Schneider is one of the best in the game—maybe the best.

Which is why he won't let Russell Wilson just walk away when he still has some time to sign Wilson to a new contract and this isn't the time to start a panic.

I still don’t think it was a body blow to the negotiations, but imagine you’re Wilson.

Imagine that I'm going to get paid a lot of money, but I'm not sure who will end up paying me? Yes, it must be tough.

At North Carolina State, in each of your freshman and sophomore and junior years, you lead the Atlantic Coast Conference in touchdown passes, and in the spring before your senior season, while you’re playing minor-league baseball, your coach, Tom O’Brien, releases you from your scholarship so he can have backup Mike Glennon start for the last two years of his eligibility.

This Russell Wilson fable is getting to be like the Drew Brees fable. You know, the fable that the Dolphins didn't want Brees when they had legitimate worries about his shoulder being healthy, so he went with the team (the Saints) that believed in him the most. What that means is the Saints offered Brees the most guaranteed money. It was a decision about money, no matter how much the narrative dips into "The Dolphins didn't believe in him enough, so he went to New Orleans where he felt a connection to the people" territory.

Russell Wilson wouldn't stop playing baseball during the summer. Tom O'Brien wanted him to stop playing baseball, but (sound familiar?) Wilson wouldn't. So O'Brien chose to give Wilson the heave-ho and go with the quarterback who has more eligibility and a lot of talent, Mike Glennon. It was a decision made by Tom O'Brien that had merit at the time. If N.C. State can get two years of Glennon and Wilson won't commit to football full-time, then why not release Wilson from his scholarship? But it all started with Wilson refusing to choose football over baseball, which by the way, is something that Peter brought up when discussing Jameis Winston as a knock against Winston. Peter wondered if the Buccaneers were concerned Winston may want to play baseball at some point. It's interesting how the need to play baseball is suddenly forgotten when discussing Russell Wilson.

I threw 76 touchdown passes for him in three years, but O’Brien thinks Mike Glennon’s better than I am? I’ll show Tom O’Brien.

Except, you know, that wasn't the real issue at hand. The issue was that Wilson was playing baseball when O'Brien wanted him playing football.

I walk into Wisconsin in July, learn the offense in about 10 minutes, set the NCAA passing-efficiency record for a season, get the Badgers to the Rose Bowl, and five quarterbacks get picked before me? Brandon Weeden goes 53 picks before me? I’ll show the NFL.

Because Wilson would have been the first great college quarterback to fail in making the transition to the NFL, so how could every NFL team who passed on him not have known how good he would be?

He quarterbacks his team to the playoffs in each of his first three years, to the NFC title in two seasons, and to the Super Bowl title in one of those seasons. In all three years, he’s in the top 10 in the league in passer rating. He quarterbacks his team to more wins, overall, than any other quarterback in football—Wilson 42, Tom Brady 41, Peyton Manning 40—including playoffs. (I know quarterback wins can be a misleading stat. But if you play well enough to win big, and Wilson has, is that a number that should be ignored?) And by all accounts, Wilson and the Seahawks aren’t close to a deal. Oh, and Cam Newton, four games over .500 in the same three years that I’m 28 over, just signed a contract with $56 million coming in the first two years.

Yeah, but Cam was told at the University of Florida that they would rather have Tim Tebow as their quarterback. Then he went to a community college, won a championship, went to Auburn and won a national title, and then experts still said he couldn't be an NFL quarterback even after he was drafted #1 overall. Oh, poor him. He's so maligned.

My point is that every player has some slight that can get them motivated. Every player feels doubted at some point and the fact the Seahawks haven't immediately made Russell Wilson the highest paid quarterback in the NFL after Newton signed his contract means not very much.

My franchise had finished below .500 four straight years before I got here, and we’re 42-14 with two trips to the Super Bowl in my time, and we can’t get a deal done? I’ll show management.

I can't imagine Wilson is too concerned about a deal getting done. He knows there is time. I feel like Peter is creating a story where there isn't one right now.

In the past 10 years, one quarterback with legitimate franchise potential—Drew Brees, in 2006—hit the market, and that came in large part because of a serious shoulder injury in 2005 in San Diego. Quarterbacks of value always re-sign with their teams.

Brees also hit the market because THE CHARGERS HAD PHILIP RIVERS ON THE ROSTER ALREADY AND HOLY SHIT HE'S NOT BEEN BAD AT PLAYING QUARTERBACK.

There’s little question, to me, that Wilson will be the Seattle quarterback through the end of the 2016 season. If no deal gets done this year, he’ll play for $1.5 million in 2015, and if the two sides can’t agree after the season, Seattle’s very likely to franchise him the exclusive-rights number of about $24.5 million for 2016. That’s a best guess.

A deal is going to happen. I'm not sure why Peter is so concerned otherwise. It took Newton four years and five months away from free agency to get his deal. Wilson can easily get a deal done during the season. Just like the Ravens weren't letting Flacco hit free agency, Wilson will get a deal done with Seattle.

Rodgers said he didn’t think Newton’s deal was one that would force Wilson’s deal to get done, the same way he said Ryan Tannehill’s extension in Miami (he was drafted the same year as Wilson) wouldn’t be a spur to get Wilson’s deal done. Rodgers sounded conciliatory when I asked about the state of the talks. “There’s no deadline, no pressure,” Rodgers said. “Russell has a contract for this season, and he is fully prepared to play the season out if he does not sign another contract. It’s early June. They don’t report to camp till late July. I’ve always assumed this contract would take a while to get done.”

But Peter King will not hear of this. A deal has to get done and even though nobody but Peter King seems worried about a contract extension for Wilson not getting done, there is a real chance (so much so that Peter had to lead the column off with this non-story) that Wilson and the Seahawks won't be able to come to an agreement.

But beyond that, as we sit here a year and a half before that Molotov cocktail could be lobbed into the Pacific Northwest, I have some growing doubts about Wilson’s long-term Seattle future.

Three reasons why I think the talks between Wilson and the Seahawks could be in trouble:

Rodgers is a baseball guy, and it’s clear he loves the prospect of his players maximizing their value on the open market … some day. As does Wilson. I don’t know what Rodgers wants, but I can assume it must be close to making Wilson the highest-paid quarterback in football.

Baseball free agency is very different from football free agency. In the NFL, a quarterback needs to have an offense built around his specific strengths and weaknesses. Throw Russell Wilson into the Colts offense and I'm not sure he is successful, while if you put Albert Pujols on the Angels then there's not a ton of maneuvering that has to be done in order to help him be successful. There are more moving parts in the NFL when it comes to free agency and helping a quarterback (who plays under a salary cap with the contract not fully guaranteed) be successful. NFL teams know that. In baseball, a team with a decent outfield could still acquire an expensive free agent outfielder, while in the NFL, there are only 32 starting quarterbacks. So the entire league won't be bidding on Wilson, which means the market for his services is smaller. A smaller market means few bidders and fewer bidders with cap space means less of a chance to drive Wilson's price up to where he wants to be. The team with the most incentive to sign Wilson would be his current team. Hence, I don't think he's leaving Seattle.

Wilson’s $22 million average deal, if that’s anything near what he wants, would be for 15.4 percent of the Seahawks’ 2015 cap. I only say that because it’s fair to think Mark Rodgers would be taking into account the fact that teams have $20 million more to spend this year, and the cap is only going to go up.

This is true. The cap is going up. I think this means the Seahawks would have a good chance to sign Wilson just like every other NFL team interested in Wilson would have.

But Schneider watched Wolf make cold-hearted decisions when needed. He watched Thompson stick with the unproven Aaron Rodgers when the momentarily retired Brett Favre wanted to come back to the Packers in the summer of 2008. Schneider is proud as heck of sticking his neck out for Wilson, but his “we’d love him to be our quarterback but…” statement this spring sounds very much like a man who believes in sticking to the value the team sets for a player, whatever it is.

It also sounds like a man who understands Rodgers sat behind Favre for three years, so the Packers had a good idea of what they had. Schneider wouldn't necessarily have the advantage of drafting a quarterback to immediately replace Wilson with.

This opinion from Mark Rodgers: “Sometimes, the best deal is the deal you don’t do. For me, there would be a greater disappointment in taking a below-market deal than there would be in honoring the fourth year of a contract.” This is not how an agent talks if he’s thinking of taking a hometown-discount deal for his client.

This is a negotiating stance, Peter. Have you never negotiated something? EVER? Each side says stupid, outlandish shit as if they will hold out forever for a deal, until they get a deal close to what they want. Hence, Mark Rodgers acts like he's fine hitting the market with Wilson, but this doesn't mean this is the truth. It's a negotiating tactic. Is Peter this naive? Peter seems to consistently not understand how negotiations work.

But I’d ask you this: What if Wilson wants Aaron Rodgers money now, and a deal doesn’t get done, and what if Wilson in 2015 simply does what he’s done in each of his first three seasons—have a passer rating near 100, make the playoffs and get the team in or close to the Super Bowl? What happens then, when the cap will be at least $30 million higher than it was when Aaron Rodgers signed his deal? 

Then the Seahawks will be giving Wilson a huge deal or he won't be a Seahawk (which I doubt happens). It's hard to trust anything said during a negotiation. Both sides are going to be firm until they decide they will work a deal out. Concessions are made, deals get done.

Let’s just say I doubt the asking price will be the same next year as it is now. It’ll be higher.

So Peter is working under the assumption that another NFL team will give Wilson this deal. What if after the 2015 season the value of Wilson is very high, but there is no combination of teams with salary cap room to get Wilson under contract and the want to sign Wilson to the type of deal he wanted with the Seahawks? Wilson is also assuming that someone would pay the price he wants on the open market, when that may not be the case. Who knows? Yet, Peter acts like the risk is all on the Seahawks.

Luck will make $3.4 million this year and $16 million next year, and owner Jim Irsay—who absolutely, categorically, will not let Luck out the door—said earlier this year it’s likely the Colts will get serious on trying to get a long-term deal done with Luck early in 2016. Contracts for players taken after the first round do not have fifth-year options. So for Wilson, it’s either a new deal or some form of free agency in 2016.

Or he signs the exclusive rights as a franchise player tag with the Seahawks. I believe the Seahawks could tag him one year after that as well. I just don't think this is a huge issue right now. A deal will probably get done.

I don’t often write about contract stuff, 

Unless Marvin Demoff requests that Peter try and help a client get out from under a franchise tag that Demoff client's present team placed on him. Ask Alex Mack about this.

and I’m not convinced in any way that Wilson and the Seahawks are headed for splitsville.

Peter isn't convinced they are headed for splitsville, except 20% of this MMQB is about how they could be headed for splitsville.

If you had asked me for the 25 most important 49ers for the near future—and I’m talking players and coaches combined—six months ago, I’d have given you a list something like the one that follows. Look at the list, and see where the people are now:


Player/Coach Current status
1. QB Colin Kaepernick San Francisco
2. Coach Jim Harbaugh Head coach, Michigan
3. LB Patrick Willis Retired
4. Pass-rusher Aldon Smith San Francisco
5. T Joe Staley San Francisco
6. Def. coordinator Vic Fangio Chicago
7. WR Michael Crabtree Oakland
8. LB NaVorro Bowman San Francisco (coming off serious knee injury)
9. G Mike Iupati Arizona
10. T Anthony Davis Retired/sabbatical
11. G Alex Boone San Francisco
12. LB Chris Borland Retired
13. TE Vernon Davis San Francisco
14. S Eric Reid San Francisco
15. DE Justin Smith Retired
16. RB Frank Gore Indianapolis
17. Off. coordinator Greg Roman Buffalo
18. S Antoine Bethea San Francisco
19. WR Anquan Boldin San Francisco
20. LB Aaron Lynch San Francisco
21. RB Carlos Hyde San Francisco
22. P Andy Lee Cleveland
23. CB Perrish Cox Tennessee
24. CB Chris Culliver Washington
25. Spec. teams coach Brad Seely Oakland

In San Francisco: 11. Playing elsewhere: 6.
Coaching elsewhere: 4.
Retired: 4.


The retirements are odd. I admit that, but the 49ers had a coaching change, which results in all the coaches leaving...at least most of the time that's what this means. So some of this roster turnover is expected given from year-to-year, while I expected the coaches to go somewhere else six months ago if Harbaugh wasn't there. It's just how it usually goes. 

When your coach and three coordinators go … and two promising young players retire by the age of 25 … and your defensive leader retires … and your top wideout heads across town … and two good cover corners go … and a mauling guard goes to a division rival … and when you’re putting your franchise quarterback coming off a checkered season in the hands of a position coach (Steve Logan) who was doing a talk show for the past couple of years…

If the 49ers and Kaepernick end up having a great year then this will be a cutesy story about how Steve Logan was doing a talk show for a few years, but for now, it's a strike against him. The 49ers have had a tough offseason, there's no doubt about that.

Tomsula is well-liked by the players from all reports. But losing does funny things to relationships. The chemistry experiment in Santa Clara will be the most compelling one to watch in the NFL this year.

It's the most compelling chemistry experiment except for the one in Seattle where Russell Wilson is going to end up going into free agency, because each side is taking a hardline negotiating stance. The 49ers just feel like a disaster, though if Harbaugh was such a pain in the ass to play for as the players now claim he was, maybe the team isn't so screwed and all that young talent Trent Baalke has seemingly acquired will step up and fill the voids left behind.

Don’t get him a tie, or a gift card. Get him a book. Or put a book on his Kindle, or his tablet. Today and Wednesday, I’m going to recommend several books I’ve read in the past year. There’s a fascinating book on life behind the North Korean curtain—my favorite of the year. There’s a terrific page-turner by Bill Pennington on the life and times of Billy Martin; can’t recommend that one highly enough. And more. I plan to write about those two and the others on Wednesday.

Peter can't simply make book recommendations. He has to stretch the recommendations over a two column span.

The Matheny Manifesto: A Young Manager’s Old-School Views on Success in Sports and Life (Crown Archetype)
 

By Mike Matheny with Jerry B. Jenkins.

Apparently this is the greatest book ever written. Peter loves it. 

This is a self-help book that so many parents need. It’s so important today, with so many wacky stories about how win-at-all-cost coaches and driven parents are ruining the games kids play. You’ve got to know someone who could use this book. You’ve got to know 10 people who could use this book. They’ll thank you for getting it.

"Thank you for giving me this book about parents who are ruining games for kids, thereby making it seem like I'm a person who needs to change my parenting style to fit what this book states my parenting style needs to be. I appreciate you second-guessing how I interact with my children in the realm of sports. I enjoy your criticism of me."

By my count, this is the eighth year I’ve looked for good stories and lessons in the commencement addresses given to graduates. It’s a fun exercise, reading wisdom from Garry Kasparov and George Bush and Joyce Carol Oates. Not a lot of football in here, except from Matthew McConaughey, who recalled a painful moment for Houstonians.

"There's no such thing as forgiveness. People just have short memories." Then Matthew McConaughey walks off-stage. 

“Anthony Davis to retire.” 

And every New Orleans Pelican fan shits his/her pants. 

—A statement from the San Francisco 49ers Friday afternoon, surprising the football world by announcing the retirement of starting right tackle Anthony Davis at 25.

“After a few years of thought, I’ve decided it will be best for me to take a year or so away from the NFL. This will be a time for me to allow my Brain and Body a chance to heal … I’m simply doing what’s best for my body as well as my mental health at this time.”

—A statement from Anthony Davis later that same day.

Not so fast on the retirement thing.

Not so fast on the retirement thing, Peter? You just talked about how Steve Logan had spent some years as a talk show host, as if he can't come back and coach in the NFL after that. But Peter really thinks Anthony Davis can stay away from football and the NFL for a few years, come back from no longer playing at a high level of athletics, and then unretire and be successful again? Maybe, but I find it somewhat hard to believe. Davis is young, but if he does something else for a couple of years can he really come back to the NFL and have the same success he had previously? I think Peter should think Steve Logan can come back and coach if he thinks Anthony Davis can come back and play. I have a feeling Peter should be smarter than to believe this retirement thing for Anthony Davis may not stick.

I count 10 starters from last December’s Niners now gone: Iupati, Davis, Michael Crabtree and Frank Gore on offense (as well as part-time starter Jonathan Martin, whom I did not count);

Just last week Peter thought Jonathan Martin was too shaky to protect Cam Newton's right side, but this week when it's convenient to show how many quality players the 49ers lost in the offseason, Martin is all of a sudden one of the missing pieces on the 49ers offense.

Factoid of the Week That May Interest Only Me

As the New York Daily News pointed out Sunday, the last time there was a Triple Crown winner—Affirmed, on June 10, 1978—you could buy Wheaties at your grocery store with reigning Olympic decathlon champion Bruce Jenner on the box.

And now Bruce Jenner is a woman. Great factoid, absent the fact Peter still doesn't know exactly what a "factoid" truly is.

Mr. Starwood Preferred Travel Note of the Week

After the wedding of our daughter, my wife and I went on a cool 35th anniversary trip: VIA Rail’s Vancouver-to-Winnipeg train through the Canadian Rockies. Fifty-two really fun and relaxing hours, with some of the prettiest scenery you’ll ever see. The highlight was this announcement over the 24-car train’s intercom one day into the journey: “Ladies and gentlemen, on the left side of train you’ll see a black bear.” Sure enough, there was a large black bear, eating something in a field as we approached the Rockies.

A motherfucking bear. It was a bear. Astounding. Here's another little factoid. At the point Peter was on this train after his daughter's gay lesbian wedding between two women, Bruce Jenner still went by his male name and not by Caitlyn Jenner.

Good food on the train. Good beer. (Lots of it.) Day two of the trip, a long Sunday, was mostly through the plains from Saskatoon to Winnipeg. There’s not much out there. Good chance to get in a lot of reading. Then we flew from Winnipeg to Toronto and spent the last two days of our trip sightseeing in Toronto.
Canada is one huge and scenic country.

What? Canada is huge? No way. Peter is bullshitting his readers now. First, he talks about how he saw a bear and now he's saying Canada is a huge country.

I just love how Peter is so precocious (probable Peter King definition of the word) about things like this. He goes to Canada and his report back is that he saw a bear, the food was good, he got bored because there was nothing to see and Canada is big. It's like what a 10 year old would report back from a trip to Canada, thereby fulfilling behavior that is the opposite of precocious, but Peter would probably call it precocious anyway.

Ten Things I Think I Think

Which, as usual, has to be differentiated from all the other comments in this column that essentially consist of things Peter King thinks.

1. I think these notes caught my eye from the NFL’s announcement of its roster of officials for 2015:

a. Veteran Bill Leavy’s out as a referee. Mike Holmgren and Seattle fans won’t forget a couple of iffy calls in the Super Bowl loss to Pittsburgh nine years ago. Now Leavy will be an officiating supervisor for the league. The newest of the NFL’s 17 referees: ex-line judge John Hussey.

I like how Peter says Leavy is "out" as an official with the connotation being that Leavy was being punished or his performance didn't merit his being "in" as an official. Instead, he's an officiating supervisor now, which means he kind of got a promotion. Failing upwards is not what I think of when someone is considered "out" of a job.

b. As expected, Sarah Thomas, the first female official hired by the league as part of a permanent crew, will work on easygoing referee Peter Morelli’s crew. She is a line judge.

BUT HOW WILL SHE RESPOND WHEN BIG MEAN COACHES START YELLING HER? HOW EMBARRASSING IS IT GOING TO BE TO SEE A GIRL OFFICIAL CRY WHEN THIS HAPPENS?

4. I think one of the football stories we’ve paid far too little attention to this offseason is what the Eagles have done with their skill positions.

Wait, wait, wait. "We" haven't paid enough attention to what the Eagles have done with the offensive skill positions? The entire offseason discussion around the Eagles has surrounded how they have gotten rid of high-paid offensive skill position players and replaced them with guys Chip Kelly wants to have his system. This has led to a discussion of whether it is the player or the system that can make a team successful. If anything, the discussion about the Eagles during the entire offseason has only surrounded what they have done at their skill positions.

Added: running backs DeMarco Murray (the number one rusher in the league in 2014) and Ryan Mathews (number seven in 2013), first-round receiver Nelson Agholor. Subtracted: running back LeSean McCoy, wideout Jeremy Maclin. With Murray, Mathews and Darren Sproles—who, I’m told, is still a major favorite of Chip Kelly—I think you’ll see the Eagles be a top-three rushing team in 2015. That is: If they’re efficient at it, the Eagles will be in the top three in the NFL in rushing attempts this year.

Again, this is mostly what has been talked about when the Eagles have been discussed and Peter thinks far too little attention has been paid to it? Really?

5. I think you’re surprised by that, aren’t you?

No.

Don’t be.

Well, I am not.

I'm more surprised that Peter still doesn't understand how an outline works. This is the same topic that was being discussed in Topic #4, so it should not be Topic #5, but included as part of Topic #4.

With a quarterback, Sam Bradford, that the Eagles don’t want to expose to more punishment than necessary, and a potential workhorse back in Murray, the Eagles are strong candidates to run the ball more than half of their offensive snaps. That’s something no one thought Kelly would do as an NFL coach.

Chip Kelly has always run the ball a lot, even at Oregon. So the assumption is his team throws the football a lot, but reality doesn't bear this out. I'm still not surprised the Eagles will have a lot of rushing attempts this year, mostly because I know he does like to run the ball a lot.

7. I think this is the offseason that a storm cloud simply will not vanish from the airspace over Foxboro. That includes, apparently, a highway near Foxboro, where, on Sunday morning, an abandoned and damaged car was found after an unreported accident overnight. The car apparently belongs to former and current New England linebacker Brandon Spikes. Stay tuned for the developing story.

The Patriots released Spikes on Monday morning. I'm sure this seen as just another example of the decline of the Patriot Way.

10. I think these are my non-football thoughts of the week:

a. Two overtime games in the NBA Finals. One the Cavs should have won and lost. One the seriously undermanned Cavs should have lost and won. That’s what’s so great about sports.

Deep AND insightful.

b. The LeBron hatred by so many on Twitter and elsewhere is so foolish, such a waste of time. I don’t care how many shots he missed Sunday night. He willed that team to a win, along with a spunky little guard I never heard of until two days ago.

Right Peter, but you don't like or watch the NBA so it shouldn't be a surprise that you had never heard of that "spunky little guard" whose name you are too lazy to look up. How many times has Peter said he doesn't watch many NBA games, yet it's supposed to mean something when he says he had not heard of a Cavs player?

d. Really enjoyed the Belmont on Saturday. I was lucky to attend for the first time, thanks to some NBC ducats. I’m no horse racing fan, 

I like how Peter is always like, "I hate this sport, but here's some insight about this sport I hate..."

How hard it must be, to keep a lead in a race that long. This really impressed me: The horse has won its last seven races by an average of five-plus lengths.

By an average of five-plus lengths? That's almost as crazy as the unnecessary use of italics in this sentence. Even with Bill Simmons not writing, the unnecessary use of italics still lives.

 f. Beat Writer Stat of the Week, from the Boston Globe’s Pete Abraham, on Friday, in the midst of another crash-and-burn Red Sox season: “The Sox are 95-122 the past two seasons and 296-317 since the 2011 All-Star break. The ESPN ‘30 for 30’ documentary on how the 2013 Red Sox were one of the great outliers of all time will be fun to watch in 10 years. The Jonny Gomes quotes alone will be great.”

Cry me a fucking river and then get the hell over it. "How the 2013 Red Sox were one of the great outliers of all time..." "OUR OUTLIERS ARE MORE OUTLYING THAN YOUR OUTLIERS!"

The teeth gnashing around the 2015 Red Sox team from sportswriters is obnoxious to read.

i. Coffeenerdness: Toronto’s a huge coffee city. I bet there are more per-capita Starbucks outlets (and other independent shops) downtown than in Seattle’s downtown.

Well, Canada is a huge country.

k. This column will have guest writers for the next four Mondays. We’ll open next week with Jenny Vrentas, and Robert Klemko and Andrew Brandt will also be writing in the coming weeks. As for the fourth columnist, it’s still TBA, but I’m working on an option you’ll enjoy if it pans out.

MMQB won't be posted at all on the fourth Monday?

I’ll be back in this space July 13, ready for another season.

No Peter King, no Bill Simmons and no Gregg Easterbrook. Such a tough time the middle of the summer is.

The Adieu Haiku

Coach of the Year? Now? I’ll take Mike Zimmer. Easy.
Stood firm on AP.


Of course no Peter King means no Adieu Haiku. 

It's June and Peter is ready to give Coach of the Year to Mike Zimmer for holding firm on Adrian Peterson when just last week Peter thought the Vikings should give-in a little to Peterson. Of course, Peter holds these two fairly distinct points of view. He thought the Vikings should give-in a little, but also thinks Mike Zimmer did a great job of standing firm on Peterson.  

Friday, February 6, 2015

9 comments Gregg Easterbrook Tells the Patriots' Defense That They are the Real MVP

Gregg Easterbrook told us last week that special teams aren't as important as offense or defense in the Super Bowl, unless it turns out that special teams are as important as offense or defense, in which case a special teams play can turn a game around. Gregg also said to be on the lookout for a pick six, because whichever team got a pick six would win the game. Neither team got a pick six in this year's Super Bowl. This week Gregg tells his readers how defense won the Super Bowl for the Patriots and announces the non-QB non-RB NFL MVP. This is the last TMQ until draft time. Try not to cry too much about missing Gregg until then.

For the second consecutive year, a dominant, smothering defense prevailed in the Super Bowl, proving that in this era of quick-snap scoreboard-spinning tactics, defense still trumps offense.

The Patriots' defense gave up 396 yards on 53 plays and the Seahawks' defense gave up 377 yards on 72 plays. New England averaged 365.5 yards of offense per game this year and Seattle averaged 375.8 yards of offense per game this year. So which team had the smothering defense again? It seems like neither team really had a smothering defense, but the Seahawks outgained the Patriots by 19 yards on 19 fewer plays. Anyway, who am I to get in the way of a narrative that Gregg Easterbrook cares to push? It doesn't matter to Gregg if what he is pushing is factual or not, it's his reality based on how he cares to see that reality. Fact or fiction doesn't apply. Only information that proves what Gregg wants to prove should apply.

Last year, it was the Seattle Seahawks' defense. This year, the New England Patriots' defense. Tom Brady's exploits and records inevitably draw the headlines. Defense is what brought the Patriots their latest Lombardi.

On the last play of the game, this was true. Otherwise, it was Tom Brady and the offense that came back from a 10 point deficit (with some help from the defense obviously) in the fourth quarter. Again, Gregg wants to paint this as a huge, stifling defense effort by the Patriots when it wasn't that at all.

TMQ's Law of Comebacks holds: Defense starts comebacks, offense stops them. This diktat was on display in the Patriots' Super Bowl comeback.

This isn't the Law of Comebacks, but the Law of Common Sense. A comeback can't start until the defense stops the opposing team from scoring points. It's hard to make up a deficit and come back if your team's defense can't stop the opposing team from scoring. This is common sense and nothing else.

Not only did New England's defense seal the deal by stopping Seattle at the goal line with 20 seconds remaining, but it also started the comeback. From the point at which Seattle took a two-score lead late in the third quarter, its possession results were: punt, punt, punt, interception.

Of course the defense started the comeback. The Patriots can't start to come back until the defense stops the Seahawks from scoring. Still, the Patriots' defense wasn't really smothering. They gave up 396 yards on the game.

Not only did New England's defense win the Super Bowl but it also got the Patriots to the Super Bowl. New England had to stage a divisional-round comeback versus Baltimore. Patriots down 28-14 early in the second half, the defense allowed just three points for the reminder of that contest.

I'm not sure anyone is claiming the Patriots' defense was terrible, but to call it "smothering" and "dominant" while comparing the Patriots' defensive performance to that of the Seahawks in the Super Bowl the previous year against the Broncos is simply incorrect. The Patriots defense played fairly well, but they weren't really dominant throughout the game. 

In fact the most important stat of the 2014 NFL season may be this one, regarding New England's defense: The Patriots did not allow a fourth-quarter touchdown in their final nine games. Teams that don't let opponents score in the fourth quarter are teams that win trophies.

Little known fact there. The best teams are the ones that don't let their opponent score points for 25% of the game for almost half the season.

Many aspects came together for the Patriots' defense to shine down the stretch -- great athletic performances from Jamie Collins, Rob Ninkovich and Devin McCourty; the arrivals of Darrelle Revis and Brandon Browner; players nobody else wanted, including Alan Branch

I think Gregg means "unwanted, but highly-drafted bust 2nd round pick" Alan Branch. Has Branch made the transition from a bust 2nd round pick simply because he was unwanted and played well for the Patriots? So Gregg won't refer to him as a bust, unless he needs to of course, because Branch is considered "unwanted," and rightfully so.

Officially, New England plays a 3-4 front, but Ninkovich can be anything from a 4-3 down defensive end to dropping deep into coverage. Sometimes a nickel back lines up as middle linebacker. (Brady may be so obsessed with shouting out the identity of the opposition middle linebacker presnap because, in practice, he never knows who the middle linebacker will be.)

Or it's because nearly every experienced quarterback will identify the Mike because that helps his offensive line set up their blocking assignments. But sure, Brady is obsessed with the identify of the Mike because he never knows in practice who that person will be, and not because experienced quarterbacks identify the Mike for blocking purposes.

Defense won the Super Bowl for the second consecutive season -- and this time it was a defense that wasn't on anyone's radar.

Yes, in a Super Bowl between the Seahawks and Patriots who would have guessed the Patriots' defense would have won the Super Bowl? Considering there were only two defenses playing in the Super Bowl, it is rather shocking to hear the Patriots' defense wasn't on ANYONE'S radar. I expected the Ravens' defense to win the Super Bowl for the Patriots, but it turned out the Patriots' defense that helped them win the game.

Now that the field lights are turned off, the film rooms are dark and the cheerleaders have put their miniskirts away in very small drawers,

It still sounds shady and slightly pervy when you talk about cheerleaders in their miniskirts.

Americans will turn their gaze to other sports. But what are "sports"? See below.

Yes, what are sports? Get excited for the discussion about whether ping-pong or gaming are sports. These are the tough questions that only Gregg Easterbrook dares to handle in TMQ.

In other sports news, who produces better NFL teams -- red states or blue states? See Tuesday Morning Quarterback's annual State Standings below.

The annual State Standings that are mostly just a list of each NFL team's record separated by what state that team is located in. I can't wait for Gregg to start annual the City Standings next year.

Stats Of The Super Bowl No. 5: Taking into account trades, in the 2014 draft, 10 first-round selections were invested in quarterbacks and receivers. No first-round drafted quarterback or receiver was on a Super Bowl roster.

Of the 12 teams that were in the NFL Playoffs, 8 of those teams' starting quarterback was drafted in the 1st round. 1 was drafted in the 2nd round, 1 drafted in the 3rd round, 1 drafted in the 6th round and 1 was undrafted.

Of the 12 teams that were in the NFL Playoffs, 6 of those teams drafted their best wide receiver in the first round, 1 drafted their best wide receiver in the 2nd round, 2 were drafted in the 3rd round, 1 drafted their best wide receiver in the 6th round, 1 drafted their best wide receiver in the 7th round and 1 had their best wide receiver as undrafted.

So basically, Gregg has a point in terms of the quarterbacks and receivers in the Super Bowl, but when taking a larger sample size it shows that the best quarterbacks and wide receivers in the playoffs were drafted in the 1st round. But why would Gregg use a larger sample size that may disprove the point he wants to make? It's not like he wants to be honest with his readers.

Sweet Play Of The Super Bowl: Reaching the Seattle 4-yard line in the fourth quarter, New England threw a "pivot" to Julian Edelman, who misplayed the ball, incompletion. 

It's hard to play the ball correctly when you are concussed and all.

Leading 24-14 near the end of the third quarter, Seattle reached third-and-2 on the New England 47. The Seahawks have the league's No. 1 rushing attack and best power back, Marshawn Lynch.

Lynch is a first round draft pick by the way.

There seems no chance the Patriots could have prevented Lynch from gaining two yards on consecutive rushes. Instead Seattle lines up empty backfield, taking a Lynch run out of the equation, and throws incomplete. The clock stops and the chains don't move. 

But why would the Seahawks go for it on fourth down in this situation? I like to be aggressive, but the Seahawks defense had shut the Patriots out from scoring in the third quarter and the Seahawks have one of the best punters in the NFL. Why not pin the Patriots deep rather than go for it on fourth down (if the third down try fails) and hope Lynch converts or otherwise give the Patriots good field position? So I don't think the Seahawks would have two tries to get these two yards with Lynch. They would have one try on third down and then punting would be their best move.

Leading 28-24, with a minute left in the 2014 season, New England had defending champion Seattle facing second-and-goal on the 1-yard line, holding a timeout, possessing the league's No. 1 running attack. Three was sufficient clock for Marshawn Lynch to stage three power rushes, and it's difficult to believe any defense could stuff three straight Lynch rushes when only a single yard was needed. New England's Super Bowl-clinching interception was sweet. It was doubly sweet that undrafted who-dat Malcolm Butler made the interception. It was triply sweet that during the Super Bowl, Butler also had three passes defensed -- the best such number in a contest that featured star defensive backs Darrelle Revis, Richard Sherman, Earl Thomas and Kam Chancellor.

Ah Gregg, it's entirely possible that Malcolm Butler had three passes defensed because the Seahawks weren't afraid to throw the football in his direction. Passes defensed can be a function of the offense throwing the ball in the cornerback's direction because they don't think he is very good. There is a reason that Richard Sherman, Darrelle Revis and other top corners don't always lead the league in passes defensed, and that's because teams will avoid them completely or be careful when throwing in their direction. So yes, Butler had an impressive game, but three passes defensed just means the Seahawks could have been targeting him.

Triply sour was the pass wasn't a play fake! Seattle made no attempt to draw the defense toward Lynch. Malcolm Butler, who intercepted, could jump the route because he knew from the snap the down was not a run.

Butler was in man coverage, so the second the ball was snapped he was responsible for one of the stacked receivers on the right side of the offensive line. Butler jumped the route because he saw it was a pass, but even if the Seahawks had used play-action then it only would have served to pull Butler closer to the line of scrimmage right into the path of where Lockette was running his route. If Butler fell for the play fake, he's running towards the line of scrimmage to stop Lynch from scoring and right in the path of the pass anyway.

Ricardo Lockette and Jermaine Kearse were in a "stack" on the right. On a quick combo move, the ball always goes to the second who cuts beneath the first man, who sets a pick. Between no play fake and Lockette being the second guy in a combo, Butler knew the call was a slant to Lockette -- so he jumped the route and won the Super Bowl.

Even if Butler knew the ball was going to Lockette, there was no promise that the pass would be going inside and not outside. It is a tribute to Butler that he knew the pass was going inside and a pick wasn't being set for Lockette to run a pattern to the right of the block. Besides, it was just a really good play by Butler even if he knew where Lockette was going to be running.

New York Times Corrections On Fast-Forward: In the past six months the Paper of Record has, according to its corrections page …

Ran an epic 192-word correction about exactly when Gary Hart said "follow me around."

Because, of course, if the New York Times makes a correction then they shouldn't fully explain what the correction is. I'm sure Gregg wouldn't mock the New York Times for making a correction that didn't fully explain what was being corrected. Not at all.

Incorrectly declared the economics minister of France married his elementary school teacher

The Times did make the mistake, but because:

An article on Tuesday about Emmanuel Macron, the new economy minister of France, referred incorrectly to the period during which his wife had been his teacher. It was in high school, not first grade. (In French, “Premiere,” or first grade, refers to high school.)

So that makes sense as to how the mistake could be made.

Became confused about who's on first

It would be nice if Gregg would read the correction that he is making fun of in TMQ. The correction didn't confuse who was on first, but instead stated:

Because of an editing error, an article in some copies on Sunday about the Giants’ 2-1 victory in 18 innings over the Washington Nationals in Game 2 of their National League division series misstated the base Asdrubal Cabrera was on when Anthony Rendon drove him in with a single in the third inning. As the article correctly noted elsewhere, Cabrera was on third, not on second. 

There was never anyone claimed to have been on first base. The mistake was that Cabrera was really on third base, not second base. Gregg should issue a correction for being confused about who isn't on first.

Tuesday Morning Quarterback Non-QB Non-RB NFL MVP: This year's winner is linebacker Bobby Wagner of the Seahawks, who took 47 percent of the reader vote, besting linebacker Rob Ninkovich of the Patriots at 33 percent.

Victory is mine! I did not vote, because I really don't care to vote, but I'm glad the second round pick and soon to be highly-paid glory boy won the Tuesday Morning Quarterback Non-QB Non-RB NFL MVP. Wagner can just be added to the list of first and second round picks who have won this award in the past.

Dan Connolly of the Patriots and Doug Baldwin of the Hawks were the also-rans at 10 percent each, and a good thing in the latter case considering the knuckleheaded penalty Baldwin drew in the Super Bowl.

Well, you know how those undrafted players are. They have talent but just aren't willing to work hard enough to make it like those highly-drafted players are.

Because the words "sports" and "athletics" have such high standing in contemporary society, the sense of what's considered a sport or viewed as an athletic challenge, continually inflates. Most people would call golf a "sport," though golfers rarely break a sweat and have caddies to shoulder the load of their clubs.

Not all golfers have caddies to shoulder the load of their clubs. Professional golfers and others who can afford to pay a caddie will have someone else shoulder the load of their clubs, but most golfers put their clubs on the back of a golf cart or just carry their clubs on the course. It is not correct to assume all golfers have a caddie.

ESPN places the mantle of "Worldwide Leader in Sports" on poker and on spelling bees, which are mentally taxing but entail no physical effort. Table tennis requires great reflexes -- does that make pingpong a sport?

Who cares and why does it matter what is considered a sport and what isn't?

NASCAR, Formula One and other types of car racing are viewed as sports. They are dangerous and physically taxing, but it's the motors, not the drivers, that provide the muscle.

Gregg is about to point out he has been in a race car before. He hasn't been in a race car for three hours in the hot sun. There is a motor on the car, but it is physically taxing to drive a race car at 200 mph for three hours. I don't know if driving a car is a sport, but I do know the drivers need muscle in order to drive a race car for three hours.

(As part of a Super Bowl event, last weekend I drove a McLaren at 120 mph on a racetrack: it was mildly stressful but sure didn't turn me into an athlete.)

Did you do it for three hours? Did you get in the car again the very next day? If not, then you have no clue what you are talking about.

ESPN The Magazine (Published on Earth the Planet) featured a nude pictorial of Funny Car driver Courtney Force, praising her for being able to handle "a 10,000-horsepower machine." That does sound difficult, but is handling a powerful machine a "sport"? If so, then pilots and excavator operators are athletes.

It's completely different and you know it. If you don't know it, then you should know it.

The New York Times covers the Westminster Kennel Club Dog Show in the sports section, perhaps because jumping over obstacles makes the dogs athletes? Competitive cheer tournaments have been viewed as a sport for a while; now the American Medical Association considers all cheerleading, including the traditional sideline variety, to be a sport.

Tuesday Morning Quarterback proposes this rule: a "sport" is an activity that produces a winning person or team and that leaves the participants exhausted. Everything else is either recreation or a test of skills.

Okay, then cheerleading is definitely a sport and even a dog show is a sporting event because there is a winner and the dogs definitely look a little tired after being run around the track in the front of the judges. Video gaming could be a sport because there is a winner and the participants can be mentally exhausted after competing. How about there is just no rule for what is a sport because exhaustion can also count for mental exhaustion?

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??????????????????????????????

Is Gregg just obviously trying to waste space in TMQ now? I mean...what?

Batman, Iron Man, the X-Men, Captain America -- they've sold lots of movie tickets. How long till they have their own Broadway musicals? Spiderman got a musical that ran on Broadway for more than two years. "Flashdance," "Dirty Dancing," "The Bodyguard," "Elf" and other movie-based musicals have been to or hope to reach Broadway or the West End. Imagine the numbers list from a Batman musical:

"Gotham After Dark" -- overture
"Beneath My Cape" -- Bruce Wayne, Alfred
"When the Signal Shines" -- Batman (solo)
"In the Hideout Where I Lurk" -- Penguin, dancing henchmen
"Take Your Mask Off for Me" -- Rachel, Vicki, Selina and chorus girls
"First We Banter" -- Batman, Penguin
"Curses He Foiled Me Again" -- cast


Again, ???????????????????????????????????

Is this punishment for criticizing Gregg's criticism concerning the lack of realism in movies and television shows? Is Gregg trying to punish his readers in some way by coming up with original, not funny material so they come back to him begging for criticism concerning the lack of realism in movies and television shows? It's not working for me, but wow, Gregg is wasting space in TMQ with some really bizarre, non-funny material.

But, I have tricked you all. OF COURSE Gregg is going to criticize fictional television shows and movies in the last TMQ for the next few months.

Of course television shows have ridiculous plots. But shouldn't the physical aspects make sense? Such as, say, the distance between locations be realistic? Recently on "NCIS: Los Angeles," the heroes traveled from Los Angeles to Tunisia and back in about 15 minutes.

No, because nobody wants to watch them on a plane for several hours making small talk and sleeping.

On "The Flash," superhero love interest Iris West arrives with coffee cups in a cardboard shell that she holds sideways -- they don't fall out or, apparently, weigh anything. And Iris's job is running a coffee bar! On "Madam Secretary," the beleaguered assistant enters with the two tall Starbucks that the Secretary of State ordered -- they don't have sleeves yet don't hurt his hand, and he waves them around as he makes a point.

I don't think I understand why these things bother Gregg so much. When I'm watching a television show, I can clearly see when two characters are talking that several takes from several angles are being shown and sometimes the characters whose face the audience can't see isn't having his/her hand move in concert with what that character is supposed to be saying. It's a fictional show, I get over. If Gregg is so bored watching a show that empty coffee cups bore him, maybe he should find more interesting shows to watch.

Then there's television addiction to cell phones. Somehow directors have come to believe it's dramatic to talk on cell phones -- maybe because Hollywood deals are made by shouting into cell phones while stuck in traffic on the I-10. TV mobsters discuss their plans in detail via cell phone,

I'd love to know what generic "TV mobsters" Gregg is watching because on "The Sopranos" it was a very clear plot point that they did not talk on cell phones about plans in detail. I'm sure what this generic show with "TV mobsters" Gregg is talking about via cell phone, but given the fact he isn't being specific about the show when he's ALWAYS specific about shows, I'm sure this "TV mobsters" show exists. 

On NBC "State of Affairs," the imaginary CIA director uses his cell phone to discuss national security information, including operational code names. True, during the David Petraeus scandal, the nation learned that the actual CIA director did not know email accounts can be hacked. But your columnist is guessing not many people in the intelligence community talk about state secrets over cell phones.

Right, you are guessing. This means you could be wrong. I know, I shudder at the thought too.

With 11 minutes remaining, Seattle had a 24-14 lead and New England faced third-and-14 deep in its territory. The Patriots looked as beaten as a good team can look -- and Seattle looked seriously overconfident. New England converts on Brady's favorite pass of 2014, the short crosser to Julian Edelman. How could Seattle not have been expecting this?

It's possible they were expecting it, they just figured they could tackle Edelman before he got the first down.

Now New England faced second-and-11 and converts on a seam route to Rob Gronkowski. A moment later New England faces second-and-10 and again converts on a seam route to Gronkowski. Four times in the fourth quarter, Seattle's storied defense allowed the Patriots to convert long-yardage deficits.

It's almost like the Patriots had a game plan on offense or something. Allowing the opposing offense to score on four long-yardage attempts is how games are lost.

New England's second touchdown of the game came on a 22-yard go route to Gronkowski. He split far wide, covered by weakside linebacker K.J. Wright, no safety nearby. Presnap, your columnist pointed toward Gronkowski and shouted, "That matchup is a touchdown for New England!" (I have witnesses.)

You have witnesses that none of your readers know. How about you hand out some phone numbers and I'll verify that you aren't lying? I would have a few more questions when I talk to these witnesses though.

How did Earl Thomas, the safety on that side, fail to notice? Thomas cheated up as if expecting run.

Thomas may have noticed but the defensive play call may have been to where he wasn't supposed to double or have responsibility for the outside receiver. Defensive players can't just do whatever the hell they want to do and Thomas is famous for being able to seem like he's out of position only to actually be right in position to make a play.

Gronkowski was lined up along the Seattle sideline -- he could have reached out and shaken hands with Seahawks coaches. Why didn't they call timeout?

DON'T LIKE SOMETHING YOU SEE? JUST CALL A TIMEOUT!

How many timeouts does Gregg think NFL teams have? 15? That's his answer to everything. Just call a timeout! You noticed half a second ago that you don't like the defensive alignment? Call a timeout! Don't like the play call the coach sent in because pre-snap it seems like it won't work? Call a timeout!

For the rest of the game, Thomas covered Gronkowski when he split far wide, neutralizing him as a deep threat. So Josh McDaniels shifted Gronkowski inline, where he doesn't normally play much, and used him as a pass blocker for a while.

Gronkowski doesn't play much inline? I will have to ask Patriots fans to confirm this for me. I feel like I've seen him play inline quite a bit when I've watched Patriots games, but I also don't have the vast knowledge about football that Gregg has. It doesn't help that I find Gregg tends to just make things up, so it's hard to believe what he is saying is the truth sometimes.

As for what went wrong for Seattle -- where to start? Yes, the Bluish Men Group lost two defensive starters to injury, but every NFL team must deal with injuries. Neither Thomas nor Kam Chancellor made a big play all night. Richard Sherman did not play aggressively at the line, instead backpedaling or lining up "soft."

I'm sure that has nothing to do with him playing with a busted up elbow. It's hard to play physical and aggressive when you may need Tommy John surgery on your elbow. Also, it's hard to make big plays with a torn MCL.

From the point Seattle took 24-14 lead, Russell Wilson, the most effective running quarterback in professional football, did not carry the ball. During the regular season, Wilson ran for more yards than the leading rushers of 16 teams. To the point that Seattle led 24-14, Wilson was averaging 13 yards per carry. Three times from that juncture on, Wilson handed to Lynch on the zone read when he should have kept the ball and gone outside because the Patriots had no contain man opposite the playside. Had Wilson simply kept the ball and run for 20 yards on any of those three chances, the fourth-quarter dynamic would have been very different.

This is great. Yeah, if Russell Wilson had just kept the ball and run for 20 yards on any of those three chances, the fourth quarter dynamic would have been very different. If Marshawn Lynch had just found a way to avoid every tackler who tried to tackle him on every play during the game, surely the Seahawks would have won. Of course, if Tom Brady had the ability to fly then he could have negated the Seahawks' pass rush on most plays and the fourth-quarter dynamic would have been very different as well. And there were a few plays during the game where Seahawks receivers caught a pass and got tackled. Had the receiver simply avoided being tackled and run for a touchdown on any of these chances, the Seahawks would have won the game.

I can create fake scenarios on what should have happened and how this would have changed the outcome of the game too. It's a fun game.

TMQ's annual state standings judges teams based on where they perform -- the Potomac Drainage Basin Indigenous Persons in Maryland, the Giants in New Jersey and so on. Note that of the traditional prep football hotbed states -- California, Florida, Ohio, Pennsylvania and Texas -- Florida finished second from last, and only one posted a playoff victory. The top two finishers hailed from Massachusetts and Washington, among the most liberal states in the union; professional football's top four finishers hailed from states that voted Democratic in the 2012 presidential election.

Massachusetts 15-4
Washington 14-5
Wisconsin: 13-5
Colorado: 12-5
Indiana: 13-6
Arizona, Michigan: 11-6
Pennsylvania, Texas: 21-12
New York: 9-7
Ohio: 17-15-1
North Carolina: 8-9-1
Missouri: 15-17
Maryland: 15-19
Louisiana, Minnesota: 7-9
California: 20-28
Georgia: 6-10
Illinois: 5-11, New Jersey 10-22
Florida: 13-35
Tennessee: 2-14


There is such a small correlation between states that vote Democratic and that state's football team playing well that I'm embarrassed for Gregg that he even brought this up. Also, the absolute pointlessness of these State Standings is reflected in the fact the two states at the top of his standings are..................the two teams that appeared in the Super Bowl. What? How could that be? So the state with the best record also had the team that appeared in the Super Bowl? That's just amazing. You won't believe this, but the two states with the third and fourth best record are the two states that have the #2 seeds in the AFC and NFC playing in that state. This has to be a coincidence.

The fact Gregg thinks he is actually giving relevant information with his State Standings amuses the shit out of me. It's mostly a restatement of which teams in the NFL had the best record. Get this, the two states with the worst record in the State Standings are also the two states that had the two worst teams in the NFL. It's fun how Gregg finds ways to restate information that is already known and then try to pass it off as new information.

In the run up to the Super Bowl, Marshawn Lynch received a huge amount of attention for insisting he just wanted to be left alone. If he'd actually just wanted to be left alone, he would have gone to the podium, offered a few sports platitudes -- "the Patriots are a fine, fine football team" -- and everyone would have left him alone

For a member of the media, Gregg sure doesn't understand how the media works does he? I very much don't doubt the media would have found fault with Marshawn Lynch no matter what he said at the podium on Media Day. If he had offered boring platitudes then the media would have attacked him for saying nothing of substance and wasting their time. Of course, they allowed their time to be wasted by showing up knowing he wouldn't saying anything, but that's beside the point. 

By making a great show of appearing in very dark glasses and ignoring questions, Lynch drew attention to himself. Which, one presumes, was what he wanted all along.

Yes, Lynch wanted attention all along. That's why he had to be forced by the NFL to even show up to talk to the media. That's definitely the sign of someone who wants attention.

In 2009, he was suspended by the league for three games. Lynch seemed to expect sports reporters would act like team publicists and change the subject; instead he got abrasive questions. Since then, including last week at Super Bowl media events, he has accused the sports media of printing lies about him: "You all can go make up whatever you're going to make up." I'd venture a guess Lynch actually does not know what the sports media is saying about him because he doesn't read the newspaper.

Again Gregg, that's just a guess you are making. But I'm sure Lynch doesn't read a newspaper because he's an athlete who doesn't look clean-cut, so he's obviously stupid and uneducated. 

The odd thing is that Lynch has a sense of humor, as he displayed in his Skittles parody. If he'd only show that humor at a media conference, the ice would melt. Instead he says things like this from last week, when he was supposed to take questions: "I come to you all's event, you shove cameras and microphones down my throat. I ain't got nothing for you all." Reporters and spectators don't get angry at Lynch when he expects them to attend games:

Gregg is so off-base here it's laughable. Marshawn Lynch doesn't expect reporters to attend games. The media outlet the reporter works for expects these reporters to attend games. Marshawn Lynch doesn't give a crap if reporters attend games or not. Gregg shouldn't act like it's a symbiotic relationship, because it's not. Lynch doesn't need the reporters as much as the reporters need to cover the most popular sport in the United States. Also, Lynch has no issue with spectators because they aren't part of the media and don't ask him dumb questions. Gregg shouldn't act like Lynch is turning against the very fans who support him, because that's not true. Of course, because Gregg is part of the sports media then I'm sure he views turning against reporters as being the same thing as turning against the fans.

When Thurman Thomas couldn't find his helmet at a Super Bowl, then the Bills lost, for a while he was angry at the media because reporters kept bringing this up. One day he walked into a media conference with a basket of miniature helmets that he handed out to reporters, and told a couple jokes about himself. For the rest of his career, Thomas had the sports media eating out of his hand: When it was time to cast Hall of Fame votes, Thomas got a landslide of votes. Somebody in the Seahawks' organization should tell this story to Lynch.

Lynch DOES NOT CARE. Has he not made that clear enough? Add Gregg Easterbrook to the list of self-involved media members who believe it's the privilege of an athlete to be covered by the media, so showering the media with kindness and gifts to tickle their taint and make them giggle is the only way to try and get the positive coverage these athletes so desperately covet. When facing an athlete who doesn't care to talk to the media, the sports media acts like there is something wrong with this athlete and then threaten to pull any neutral coverage until they are treated like the royalty they so obviously believe they deserve to be treated as.

Snowfall totals are notoriously difficult to predict. But last week's sky-is-falling treatment of the approaching northeast blizzard was revealing of political and media cultures.

Perhaps it's better that newscasters and politicians issue exaggerated warnings about weather than for the public to be complacent. But your columnist thinks the underlying dynamic is longing, on the part of the media and political establishments, for bad news. Bad news makes for ratings, and justifies increased government power plus more subsidies.

Or maybe politicians and the media would rather people prepare for the worst and hope for the best. Underplaying a storm's effect on an area can cause the citizens of that area to be in danger if the storm is worst than possible. It's fun to mock weather people for exaggerating a storm, but there is a legitimate public safety need to exaggerate so that citizens are prepared.

In the run up to the first college football national championship, the Washington Post reported Ohio State snaps the ball in "25.72 seconds" and averages "7.03 yards" per play. The difference between "7.03" yards and 7 yards is one inch. The difference between "25.72 seconds" and 26 seconds, multiplied by the Buckeyes' typical snaps per game, works out to 20 seconds over the course of the game.

20 seconds, or you know, the difference in the Seahawks having time to win the Super Bowl or not having time to win the Super Bowl. What's 20 seconds in a football game, other than the potential difference in getting an additional play or two off? How could that be important?

During last spring's NBA playoffs, Indiana had possession out-of-bounds under the Miami basket with 0.1 showing before halftime and scored on an alley-oop tip into the basket. That is, the scorekeeper thought the entire play took less than a tenth of a second.

That same month the Journal reported Stephen Curry "takes about 0.3 seconds to release the ball, which is at least 0.1 seconds faster" than other long-range shooters, while his 3-pointer attempts "average a maximum height of 16.23 feet" versus a league wide trey average of "15.77 feet."

When could 0.1 of a second be important, right Gregg? It's only the difference in an alley-oop or getting a shot blocked by a defender.

In 2012, I refinanced to take advantage of low mortgage rates. My lender's monthly statements says I am paying "3.00000 percent" interest. The same year I purchased an LG flatscreen TV that boasted a typical lifespan of 60,000 hours. That's 55 years at three hours per day. 

Actually, that's 54.79 years.

Recently I bought some chicken marsala at Giant Food, my local supermarket. The instructions said to microwave for "approximately 2 minutes and 22 seconds." Approximately!

From TMQ last week:

Postscript No. 4: Andrew Luck's hand size (pinkie to thumb with fingers spread) is 10 inches, Brady's is 9.4 inches. That's a bigger distinction than it may seem.

That seems like a bigger distinction!

Gregg's anti-hyper-specificity fetish is never not annoying. There are some numbers that are too specific, but Stephen Curry taking a shot 0.1 seconds faster than other long-range shooters is important when factoring in how quick NBA defenders are.

Last summer, your columnist pitched for Katy Perry as the Super Bowl halftime act. The humor value of her show was well worth it -- though, what's left in terms of staging for whomever performs next year? The acoustics at University of Phoenix Stadium were awful, however. From the stands the sound was so bad it was difficult to determine what number Perry was performing.

It's Katy Perry, does it really matter? It's not like she isn't just doing a duet with Auto-Tune anyway.

While TV ratings for the NFL and for NCAA football remain robust, NFL attendance is soft, while big-deal NCAA football attendance has been declining. For those of all age groups, one reason is that HD TVs show football so well, why brave the hassle and endure the expense to attend? But there's an added factor for millennials. Many don't associate attending a football game with dad as a rite of passage of youth.

So Gregg is now making blanket assumptions about how "many" millennials don't associate attending a football game with dad as important. I can't see how making blanket assumptions about a group of 70-80 million people could ever be wrong.

Dad may not be in the picture to begin with. Sure, at Thanksgiving they heard their uncles expounding on devotion to the Giants or Bears or Raiders as family traditions. But the sense of these and other teams as emblematic of the communities they represent is fading, replaced with a sense that the NFL is something the super-rich use to sustain their privileges.

And Gregg knows for a fact this is how many of these 70-80 million people feel. I've always been impressed with Bill Simmons' ability to read the mind of his readers, but Gregg can read the minds and feelings of 70-80 million people and then come to a conclusion about their relationship with their father from these feelings. That's impressive.

And then there's the movement of millennials from television to broadband. Cord-cutting as a fad is giving way to the no-cord generation that has never signed up for television service. They may watch fantasy football stats and highlights on the web. They're a lot less likely to watch the games.

Which explains why the ratings for NFL games are declining so precipitously. No millennials watch games anymore.  

Either Throw A Virgin Into The Volcano Or Fire An Assistant Coach: The latest example is the Packers' scapegoating last week of special teams coach Shawn Slocum, fired because his charges allowed a special teams touchdown then failed to recover an expected onside kick in the NFC championship game. Green Bay special teams indeed performed poorly.

Gregg wouldn't know this because he's too busy making shit up, but the Packers were ranked 32nd in the NFL in special teams this past season. That's out of 32 teams. So maybe, just maybe, the fact Slocum presided over the worst special teams unit in the NFL is the reason he got fired. Maybe Slocum was fired not because of the easy answer that Gregg wants to give based on watching the playoffs, but based on the season-long failure of the Packers to have good special teams play. The more you know, the less you assume, and it's fine to do research before just writing shit down and calling it a day. It's recommended.

It was head coach Mike McCarthy who sent the special teams out four times on four fourth-and-1 situations when Green Bay should have gone for it. The head coach isn't going to fire himself, though.

While those were bad decisions, Slocum wasn't fired because the Mason Crosby kicked field goals on fourth-and-1. Gregg is trying to confuse the issue to push one of his talking points. The special teams coach was fired for his unit's performance throughout the entire year, not because of fourth-and-1 decisions made by Mike McCarthy.

At the end of each season, TMQ recommends meritorious recent books that may not have received sufficient attention. Among them this year:

I wonder how many of these books Gregg has read? He lists 19 non-fiction books and four fiction books. If Gregg recommends books like he provides links to outside articles in TMQ, then I'll be surprised if he's read half of these books and his descriptions of what these books are about are really accurate. Gregg loves to provide links in TMQ that don't say what he believes they say (remember the Jacksonville schools link from earlier in the year?), so I can't help but think his book descriptions may not be accurate either.

Seahawks defensive coordinator Dan Quinn spent parts of the postseason negotiating for the Falcons head coaching job. His defense looked unfocused till the very end versus Green Bay, then looked unfocused for the entire Super Bowl. Was his head in the game or in his next contract?

Earlier in TMQ, Gregg blamed Earl Thomas and other Seattle defenders for allowing long gains to the Patriots. So is Dan Quinn to blame for his defense performing badly at times during the Super Bowl or is it the fault of the Seattle defenders? One minute Gregg is blaming the Seattle players for executing the play call poorly and now he's blaming Dan Quinn for the play call because he's "unfocused."

Exit Stage Left: Tuesday Morning Quarterback folds its tent and steals off into the desert. As usual, I recommend you employ the offseason to engage in spiritual growth. Take long walks. Attend worship services of any faith, even if solely to sharpen your doubt. Appreciate the beauty of nature. Exercise more, eat less. Perform volunteer work. Read, meditate, serve others: Do these things and you will feel justified in racing back to the remote, the swimsuit calendars and the microbrews when the football artificial universe resumes anew in the autumn.

And may Gregg decide that he will stop misleading his readers by providing only the information about players and plays that he finds to be important in order to prove his point. May he find that the points he wants to prove about his ridiculous "laws" and the narratives he wants to push aren't more important than admitting that he tends to just make these things up as he goes along. Also, may ESPN Grade and the Authentic Games Standings go away forever.