7 comments MMQB Review: Peter's Super Bowl Pick Edition

Peter King made some observations from all 16 of the useless preseason games in last week's MMQB. He also suggested Judge Berman decide to end all of this nonsense about the Patriots deflating footballs in order to kick the can down the road and make this nonsense last longer. Peter wanted the judge to wait until after the 2015 season to rule so that way there would be a whole other five months of measuring the PSI of footballs in cold weather. Fortunately, Judge Berman did not take Peter's advice. This week, Peter talks about Aaron Rodgers and how perfect he is, makes his Super Bowl prediction, and is the 10,000th media member to recommend "Do Your Job." I think Peter wins an award or something for being the 10,000th media member to recommend this documentary, doesn't he?

Factoid I Learned this Summer That I Have Been Dying To Share With You: 

Your daughter is having another big gay wedding and you want everyone to be open-minded about it while specifically referring to it as a "gay wedding" on Twitter and not just a "wedding" thereby showing you subconsciously differentiate between the two type of weddings?

This is the 10th season Mike McCarthy has coached the Packers, and the 10th season Aaron Rodgers has played for Mike McCarthy. In all that time, from January 2006 to this weekend, Rodgers has never been fined by the team. He has never been late to a meeting, a practice, a game, an off-season workout. He has never missed any of those scheduled events without permission. He has never violated curfew either in training camp or the night before any of the 197 preseason, regular-season or postseason games since McCarthy took over. He has never mouthed off to anyone, or violated any team rule to the extent that he had to be fined. 

I find it hard to believe Rodgers has never mouthed off to anyone. I think his mouthing off is simply being forgotten. A lot of people aren't late to work, don't get suspended, and don't violate any rules while at work. Congrats to Aaron Rodgers and this is such a worthy note to lead off the column with. Very important information to know.

And of course other sportswriters on Twitter thought this factoid was brilliant and congratulated Peter as if he had found the Holy Grail and then managed to sell it off to an alien race which allowed him to cure cancer. And yes, a "factoid" is still a statement of questionable factual basis, so maybe Peter is lying, or he still insists on not using a dictionary before using big words.

“That is true,” Rodgers told me. “Now, in my rookie year, 2005, I did get fined once.

So as long as the time Aaron Rodgers DID get fined isn't counted, then this factoid is true. A lot of facts can be true if a person works around all the times that fact wasn't true.

I was five minutes late to a meeting. I was speeding down [Wisconsin route] 41, a little late, and I said, ‘I can either get a ticket here and be late, or I can drive normal and be late.’ I decided to be six minutes late and take the fine.” 

Aaron Rodgers favors taking his medicine and staying within the law over violating the law and doing what's best for him. He's the hero we need.

There’s no really good reason to write that this morning.

Finally, we can agree. Football starts in less than a week and Peter is starting off his column with factoids about Aaron Rodgers.

I’m picking a Green Bay-Baltimore Super Bowl. Two teams that blew golden chances to meet in the Super Bowl last year, finally keeping the appointment a year later. (NFC title game last January, five minutes left: Green Bay 19, Seattle 7. AFC divisional game last January, 23 minutes left: Baltimore 28, New England 14.) 

There's the whole "Well yeah, Dez Bryant caught that pass and so the Packers may not have even advanced to the NFC title game if that rule made any sense and the Cowboys had managed to punch the ball in from the two-yard line with the best running game in the NFL" argument, but I guess that should be ignored in keeping with the storyline that Peter is crafting right now.

To make that pick, I have to get over a lot of things. For Green Bay, the Jordy Nelson injury is the biggest thing—the most dangerous weapon for Rodgers on the team that scored the most points (486) in football last year...But I recall Davante Adams being in the right place at the right time for Green Bay to beat Miami last year.

Peter was worried about losing Nelson, but then he realized one time last year Davante Adams caught an important pass and this helped Peter realize Nelson is probably useless anyway.

I like the defense well enough too, despite the loss to free agency of solid corners Tramon Williams and Davon House. Maybe that’s me trying to talk my way into picking Green Bay, but I remember in the NFC title game last year what I saw in the first 55 minutes: 12 Seattle drives, seven points, 187 yards, four interceptions of Russell Wilson.

Yes, that game was against Seattle, the renowned offensively explosive team who can attack you from anywhere in their high octane passing game. Peter is worried about the Packers losing two solid corners, but points out the Packers did well against a team that isn't known for having a great passing attack (WITH those two corners on the roster at the time) and it made him feel better about the Packers secondary. Ignore the last five minutes of the game because the first part of MMQB is all about making statements and leaving information out that disputes those statements.

Baltimore? You’ll be surprised at the Ravens’ biggest challenge.

Let me guess, you think they are going to trade Joe Flacco midseason because Ozzie Newsome said, "I can see a trade or two happening this year" as an offhand comment to a reporter?

So what is the Ravens' biggest challenge? Their ONE biggest challenge?

Two, actually: 

YOU GOT ME AGAIN, PETER! YOU SAID "CHALLENGE" LIKE THERE WAS ONE, THEN SURPRISED ME WITH TWO! TWO SURPRISES AROUND YOUR PICK OF THE RAVENS? I'M STANDING UP APPLAUDING YOU RIGHT NOW, BUT IF I WEREN'T, I WOULD BE ON THE EDGE OF MY SEAT WANTING TO KNOW WHAT THE SURPRISE IS!

1. The Bengals. You’d think the Ravens are significantly better over the past few years, right? Well, in the post-season, yes. But Cincinnati and Baltimore have 40 regular-season wins apiece in the past four years. The Bengals beat the Ravens in the AFC North standings in 2013 and ’14. In their past five meetings, the Bengals are 4-1 against the Ravens and have allowed Baltimore just 18.8 points a game. 

And so because the Bengals have been good over the past four years and the Ravens have to play the Bengals two total times this year, this means that the Bengals will be good this year as well?

But no, Peter King is doing the whole "Two topics that are really one topic but inexplicably separated" thing he does in the "Things I Think I Think" section. Really, there is one challenge for the Ravens.

2. Baltimore has to earn home-field in the playoffs. I know: Every team wants to be at home in the playoffs, but for the Ravens the home-field edge has been huge in the John Harbaugh era. Since Harbaugh took over in 2008, Baltimore is 45-11 at home and 27-29 on the road in the regular season.

So the challenge for the Ravens isn't the Bengals, but to win their division and get homefield advantage. Let's not overcomplicate it. Also, home-field edge has been huge for the Ravens during the John Harbaugh era as long as the fact the Ravens won a Super Bowl by winning two road games or that the Ravens are 7-5 on the road in the playoffs under Harbaugh gets ignored.

The Ravens have played 15 postseason games since 2008 … only two at home. Twelve on the road, and one (the Super Bowl, against San Francisco) at a neutral site. 

But it’s worn on Baltimore. Like last year. Even with a World League secondary, the Ravens held two 14-point leads at New England in the divisional round and couldn’t hang on. Imagine if the game had been in Baltimore, where the Ravens have won a Patriot-like 81 percent of their home games since 2008. 

Imagine if that game had been played on an aircraft carrier in the middle of the Atlantic Ocean. How would that have affected the outcome? What about if this game was played on a field made of pillows, how could that have had an effect on the score? 

I see the Ravens winning the North

Kings of the North! Flying their family banner! Fuck the Starks!

If they win the North, that’s one home playoff game at least. If they win 12 games, that should be enough for two. What they really need, though, is for the rest of the conference to get as good as the North has been in recent years, so the road to Santa Clara won’t be all on the road.

All teams want home playoff games, but I don't see why the need for the Ravens to have one is so great. They have proven they can win games on the road in the playoffs.

Regarding the other contenders:
 
New England. No repeat champions in the past 10 Super Bowls; I’m not big at all on picking repeat champs. Then there’s the weak secondary (minus Darrelle Revis and Super Bowl unsung hero Brandon Browner), and the Ravens-like lack of depth at receiver.

If only the Patriots had a dynamic tight end who is essentially uncoverable. Alas, they do not and we must all move on.

Seattle. I checked in with a Seahawk source Sunday night, and there’s scant optimism that strong safety Kam Chancellor—vital on the field, of course, but in the locker room too—will be in St. Louis for the opener in six days. Plus, free safety Earl Thomas, rehabbing from a torn labrum in his left shoulder, is likely to play next week but not certain. So, Seattle could face a matchup nightmare in St. Louis (last three years: Rams two wins, Seattle one in St. Louis)

A matchup nightmare! A total nightmare facing that up-and-coming Los Angeles Rams team! They are so formidable and scary. The Rams have won two games at home against the Seahawks over the last three years. If that's not having a team's number then I don't know what a small sample size is.

The Seahawks should score more,

Except for Russell Wilson, who isn't scoring at all apparently.

Indianapolis. When we last left the Colts, they were getting steamrolled on the ground for the third time in their past 20 games by the Patriots. Arthur Jones, key run-stopper up front, has been lost for the year, and they haven’t made any significant adds to the defensive front, save Kandall Langford, who’s no Haloti Ngata. If Andrew Luck can score 40 points a Sunday, I like the Colts to go far. If not, they’ll win the AFC South and be frustrated again in late January.

The Colts drafted Phillip Dorsett. Imagine how awesome Andrew Luck's MVP numbers are going to look after the season is over. Sure, Ryan Grigson could have improved the defense and just didn't like the guys available in the first round, but he's also not one to trade a first round pick for an active player in an effort to improve his team. Not at all.

Philadelphia/Dallas. Flip a coin.

You go flip a coin.

I like the Eagles better, by a bit, mostly because the Cowboys lost their best defensive back (Orlando Scandrick) for the year this preseason, and because Philadelphia scored faster this preseason than the Kardashians printed money. But there’s no insurance for Sam Bradford staying upright for the season; if he does, the Eagles are as good as anyone in the NFC, and maybe better.

It's always dumb to assume Sam Bradford is going to be healthy all year long. It's always dumb, but Peter and I do agree what could happen IF Bradford is healthy all year. And yes, I really regret counting on Bradford to be healthy in my predictions because I know it's not happening.

My playoff jumpers? (The rising teams in each conference, I mean).

Thanks for explaining, Peter. Your readers are mental midgets who didn't understand what you were saying and desperately needed you to clarify. Playoff jumpers? How can a franchise literally jump the playoffs? Without the explanation, that's how I would feel.

I think Peter lacks a certain amount of intellectual respect for his readers at times. His need to explain things can be a bit condescending. This from a guy who can't use the definition of "precocious" and "factoid" correctly, but it doesn't stop him from using those words as much as possible.

Minnesota (7-9 last year) and Miami (8-8 last year).

(throws up) It appears I agree with Peter on something else.

Regarding Miami: I haven’t seen a team in recent years with the schedule advantage the Dolphins have in the first two months. Their opening seven weeks: at Kirk Cousins (Washington), at Blake Bortles (Jacksonville), versus Tyrod Taylor (Buffalo) at home, versus Ryan Fitzpatrick (Jets) in London, bye, at Marcus Mariota (Tennessee), versus Brian Hoyer (Houston) at home.

And since when have any NFL teams been bad one season and then improved the very next season? Never, so obviously the Dolphins schedule is very easy and the great Ryan Tannehill certainly won't have to play against any good defenses like the Bills, Jets and Texans have over this span. Remember, football is only a game of matchups between each team's quarterback.

Of course, they’ve got the Patriots twice, the Eagles, Cowboys and Chargers in the last 10 games, 

So it leads to something like 8-8, assuming the Dolphins lose to a team they should not lose to and then beat a team they should beat? Great, glad we talked about this.

My picks, division by division:

AFC: New England, Baltimore, Indianapolis, Kansas City.

Wild Cards: Denver, Miami.

NFC: Philadelphia, Green Bay, Atlanta, Seattle.

Wild Cards: Arizona, Dallas.

Not criticizing, just pointing out this is basically the same teams that made the playoffs last year except Atlanta will win the NFC South, Peter thinks the team that stands in the way of the Ravens making the playoffs don't even make the postseason (the Bengals), and he believes in Andy Reid so much he thinks the Chiefs win the AFC West. So there is 25% turnover among the 12 playoff teams. 

Lots of leftovers after the embarrassing but not shocking (except to the NFL) total defeat in U.S. District Court on Thursday:

Clearly, some around the league don’t think Ted Wells, Jeff Pash and Goodell have the goods on Brady. They are right: The league doesn’t have the goods. There’s no proof that Brady told anyone to take air out of the footballs.

I'm just glad we got to the bottom of whether air in the amount of a few tenths of a PSI were taken out of the football or not and who knew what and when they knew it. With offensive line coaches hitting their loved ones and all that boring football stuff to focus on, I like to see important things like whether footballs used in a game back in January where the outcome wasn't in doubt had reduced air pressure in them.

There are between two and four owners, a very small cabal, down on Goodell right now to the point that they would consider joining a movement to replace him. That’s not many, especially when you consider that Goodell is on the losing streak of all commissioner losing streaks, and when you consider that 24 votes would be required to replace Goodell. Understand that many of the leading owners in the league consider that Goodell is doing their bidding, fighting for what he believes is the right thing, and also that he’s taking hits for them on fronts like domestic violence.

I always laugh when the idea of the owners replacing Goodell comes up. I think they probably should, but why do that when he's taking all the heat and making them look good? Who hates Jerry Richardson because Greg Hardy hit a woman? Nobody. Who got mad at Steve Bisciotti because the Ravens handled the Ray Rice situation poorly? A few people did and then forgot about it once Roger Goodell started fumbling around when attempting to punish Rice. Goodell is paid to be the bad guy so the owners don't have to be.

It could be that the union, smelling blood in the water, will stand firm and not give up anything in bargaining with the NFL, because the players know how weakened the NFL is right now. I doubt that will be enough for the league to just say, We’ll hand you neutral arbitration. But both sides know Goodell needs to fork over the appeal process for Brady-type cases. This solution seems logical:

Almost as logical as Peter's solution to punish Tom Brady, which was to make this whole drama get drawn out longer? 

The league and players agree to a panel of three arbitrators; the arbitrators would be mutually agreed upon by the league and the union. Each time there’s an appeal of a commissioner discipline case, one of the three arbitrators would be picked randomly to hear the appeal.

So all the league and players would have to do is agree on three arbitrators? Wow, that seems easy enough considering the union doesn't trust the league and the league has no respect for the union. 

In exchange, the CBA, set to expire following the 2020 season, will be extended one season, and would expire after the 2021 season. Now, the league will howl at this, saying that’s not enough of a trade with the players to give up such a valuable chip. But I would maintain this: The chip has become a poisonous one. The chip is not nearly as valuable as it once was. It’s now worth 20 cents on the dollar. Goodell has to make a save-face deal with the players, or risk the waterfall of negative press and public opinion washing over him and the league.

He doesn't care, Peter. Roger Goodell doesn't care about saving face with the players. He doesn't care about the waterfall of negative press and public opinion because everybody still watches the NFL games, buys the merchandise and the stadiums will undoubtedly be full on Thursday nights, all day Sunday and Monday nights. This makes the owners money, they are happy, which means they are happy with Goodell, so Goodell is happy and has done his job. Roger Goodell only cares about saving face or public opinion when it comes to hurting the NFL's bottom line. Otherwise, it's all noise to him as long as the money keeps rolling in.

I’ve screened NFL Network’s “Do Your Job: Bill Belichick and the 2014 New England Patriots,” an hour-long documentary that airs Wednesday on NFL Network at 8 p.m. ET. It might be the best example I’ve ever watched of how Belichick works—how he prepares players, how he prepares coaches, how he gets coaches ready to impart what players need to know to win, how he motivates players (thought there’s not a lot of that here), how he uses mysterious director of football research Ernie Adams (who is interviewed for the documentary), and how he uses so much minutiae of football knowledge to prepare for games.

I find it interesting how there is a constant presumption of secretiveness surrounding Belichick and the Patriots. To an extent that is true on the day-to-day aspects of knowing what goes in with the Patriots, but this is the second documentary in the last couple of years about the Patriots and/or Belichick where the inner workings of his team and decision-making process are examined on camera. For a guy who is really secretive and there isn't much known about how the Patriots go about their business, the public sure knows a hell of a lot more about how he runs his team than they know about how Pete Carroll runs the inner workings of his team. So they are secretive, but I think it's at the point we know more about the Patriots than many other NFL teams. 

It’ll be easy for non-Patriot fans to sneer at it and say, Enough of the bleepin’ Patriots overload! But this is such a good show about football, and about the inner game of football, that if you’re a football fan you’ll be doing yourself a disservice by not at least setting the DVR to record this show.

It's still about the Patriots though. I would watch it, but if someone is tired of the Patriots, then an entire show about the team and how they just won the Super Bowl probably isn't something that sounds enticing to watch.

“Maybe the one word that isn’t in that sentence,” said Belichick in the doc, “that’s implied but not stated, is ‘Do your job well.’ Take care of the one or two three things that we’ve emphasized all week, and we’ll be okay.”

I recognize that no other NFL head coaches have had the success that Bill Belichick has had, but what is Mike McCarthy's mantra? What do we know about McCarthy and how he runs his Packers team? Not that Belichick isn't secretive, but it's growing harder for me to see this types of documentaries being introduced as if they are a brief glimpse into the world of Belichick that few others will ever see. These documentaries are a glimpse few others will see into every head coach's team, so while Belichick is secretive, there is a lot more that is known about his overall philosophies then there is known about the overall philosophies of pretty much any other NFL head coach.

Offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels confirmed the coaches showed the offense a clip of Alabama throwing the unbalanced offensive-line formation against LSU before the divisional game against Baltimore, and then explained why the play was used when it was—in the third quarter, down 14, with the season on the line. New England ran it twice and Tom Brady completed both passes on a scoring drive. ”We waited 'til the second half, purposefully so they didn’t have an opportunity at halftime to talk about it,” said McDaniels.

That is cheating to run a play that defense doesn't have to time to adjust to after they have seen it. Pure cheating. It's classless to fool the opposing team this way. 

Belichick explains why he didn’t call a timeout on the Seahawks’ fateful last drive, which would have opened him to ridicule had Seattle scored and left New England to go the length of the field in 17 or 20 seconds to have a chance had Seattle scored on the play. Basically, it’s like what we all thought: Belichick saw confusion and players hurrying around on the Seattle sideline, so he wanted to take advantage of the confusion (or so it seemed) and make them snap without being fully prepared for the play.

Little did Belichick know that Russell Wilson didn't need to be prepared for the play and the confusion didn't hurt, because God was speaking to him right at that moment. Probably talking to Wilson about the benefits of Recovery Water. 

Really good show.

I'm shocked Peter liked it. Shocked. 

“Brady’s free!”

—A passenger in the back of a Boston-to-Denver Southwest Airline flight on Thursday, shortly after the plane landed late in the morning and when passengers switched on the phones, got wifi, and learned the news of Judge Richard Berman vacating the suspension of Tom Brady, according to passenger Abby Chin of Comcast Sports Net-New England

I didn't have a dog in this fight, but the whole "Brady is free" exclamations were a little annoying to me. He's not in jail. He was initially suspended from playing a sporting event, a game, for four games. It was probably an overreach by the commissioner, but Brady wasn't jailed while on a humanitarian mission in a foreign country. He was accused of conspiring to deflate footballs. He wasn't ever not free. If he wasn't playing football for four games, then he would have been chilling at home with his kids and wife. Let's get a little perspective. 

“Now we don’t have to play what’s-his-name.”

—A kid on the Boston-to-Denver flight, once he learned Brady, and not Jimmy Garappolo, would be playing quarterback for the Patriots early in the season.

Ten years from now this kid will be in a bar talking about how he knew Jimmy G. was the right QB for the Patriots even at the age of 13 when the Pats drafted him.

Snaps played in 13 combined preseason games by three 2015 Most Valuable Player candidates:

Adrian Peterson (five games): 0.

J.J. Watt (four games): 0.

Rob Gronkowski (four games): 0.

Can we at some point, please, have a discussion about cutting the preseason from four to two games?

Hold on for a second. You made the NFL owners lose count again.  

Sure, we can have the discussion about cutting down the preseason. Don't you think a conversation about gun control is probably more important though? So the owners will let Congress figure that one out and then we can talk about cutting the preseason from four to two games. The owners want to have the gun control conversation first. 

The final weekend of the regular season includes New England playing at Miami on Jan. 3, 2016, at 1 p.m. In the last two New England games at Miami, it has been 84 degrees at kickoff (in December 2013) and 89 degrees at kickoff (in September 2014). The Patriots have lost both games—24-20 two years ago, 33-20 last year.

Might be a good idea for the Patriots to pray for a New Year’s cold snap in south Florida, or to think about practicing in steamy conditions, somewhere, before the game this year.

If really cold conditions make the PSI in a ball decrease, then does playing in a hot climate cause the PSI in the football to increase? If so, tell Ted Wells! Here is further proof of the Patriots cheating. They can't win football games in hot climates. 

Mr. Starwood Preferred Member Travel Note of the Week

Another reason Amtrak should be the mode of transportation for more people: timeliness.

I boarded Amtrak 2158, an Acela train from New York to Boston, at about 11:55 a.m. Wednesday. Train slated to depart at 12:03 p.m. I had my laptop open, with the digital clock up. At 12:03:10, the doors to the train closed. At 12:03:33, the train started moving. We were due at Boston’s Back Bay station at 3:36 p.m. Arrival time: 3:29. My experience is that’s pretty common on the Acela (not so much on the regional trains).

Two weeks from now:

"Here is my major complaint about the Acela. It's normally on time, but there were two kids on the train who insisted on playing games on their phone. At least I assume they were games and they had the volume up at a high level where I could barely hear the important conversation I was having on my phone, so I of course had to talk louder. Everyone was annoyed at the amount of noise those two kids were making playing their game, though I honestly couldn't hear what they were saying because I was having to talk so loud to hear my conversation. Also, if a train is supposed to be in Boston at 2:30pm..."

Ten Things I Think I Think

2. I think these were the stories of cutdown weekend in the NFL:

a. Tim Tebow is not one of 1,696 active players in the National Football League. The four NFL people to get rid of Tebow—John Elway, Rex Ryan (and, in part, Mike Tannenbaum), Bill Belichick, Chip Kelly—should give you an idea of the odds he faces in returning to the NFL.

This doesn't include a successful head coach like John Fox who was part of getting rid of Tebow too. At a certain point, that's a lot of smart people who seem to agree. 

He’s just not an accurate-enough thrower right now, but as Kelly told him, he needs to play the position in games, and the only place for him to do that now is in the Canadian Football League. If Tebow is serious about continuing his career in the NFL, he should be all about seeking a job in the CFL.

Real question: If Tebow is so dedicated to becoming an NFL quarterback, which isn't something I would normally doubt, then is it overly-prideful of him to not seek a job with the CFL in an effort to get back to the NFL eventually? Doesn't this show he isn't quite as dedicated to becoming an NFL quarterback as he claims to be? He wants to be an NFL quarterback and will work for it, but yeah, he's not going to do something like play in the CFL because that's below him, even if it is a way to where he could eventually get back in the NFL. We have heard all about how dedicated Tebow is, but is he dedicated when he's been told, "Here's the path you need to take" and refuses to take that path? Tebow is serious about playing quarterback in the NFL. He's not serious about playing quarterback in any other league that isn't the NFL to get there. That's a bit diva-like, isn't it? Especially when really good college quarterbacks are currently in the CFL. Somehow other quarterbacks swallow their pride and accept a job playing quarterback in the CFL, because they love to play quarterback and love to play football. Does Tebow like playing football or does he just like playing football in the NFL?

c. Tyrod Taylor is the quarterback of the Bills, and Matt Cassel is on the street. When the offseason began, Vegas odds (just kidding) had Cassel winning the starting job, E.J. Manuel the likely number two, and Tyrod Taylor fighting to fend off the rest of all available quarterbacks for number three. Taylor’s versatility and pleasantly surprising arm strength in camp won him the job. Now Cassel is hoping for a backup job somewhere else, and Houston (as Mike Florio reported Saturday) is a logical landing spot.

Houston is the landing spot for ex-Patriots backup quarterbacks who fooled other NFL teams into thinking they were real starting quarterbacks. Somebody has to make it stop. 

d. The trade for Kelcie McCray shows how serious the Kam Chancellor/AWOL situation is in Seattle. Clearly, the Seahawks are planning to play without Chancellor. That’s a serious situation. Read Greg Bishop’s enlightening story in this week’s Sports Illustrated to see for yourself how much of a leader and locker-room and on-field factor Chancellor is. But he wants to re-do his contract with three years left, and GM John Schneider isn’t willing to budge, for now, on at least making Chancellor’s contract increasingly guaranteed. 

While Peter was gnashing his teeth and worrying about Russell Wilson not being a Seahawk after this season, which again at the time was a ridiculous thought on par with "Are the Ravens going to let Joe Flacco go in free agency?," Kam Chancellor is the real Seahawks player who has the contractual issues. 

g. Andy Levitre, two years after being the highest-paid guard ever by Tennessee, got flipped to Atlanta for a sixth-round pick next year, plus a little more. Levitre should start for the Falcons, after costing Tennessee $1,015,625 per start in the past two years. (Do the division: $32.5 million, 32 starts.)

So Peter is going to eviscerate Levitre on a weekly basis now, right? He was stealing money from the Titans without contributing and ended up on the bench for the 2015 season. Levitre signed with the Titans and then completely didn't come through as he was supposed to, so much so that the Titans traded him. Under the Josh Freeman rule, it's time to eviscerate Levitre, especially if he doesn't start for the Falcons. I guess there is a difference in a guy getting paid $32.5 million to start over two seasons and a guy getting paid $2 million for one season that I'm just not aware of.

I'll never totally understand Peter's hatred for Josh Freeman.

i. One of the game’s best guards, Kyle Long, moves outside to tackle...A month ago, though, in Bears’ camp, Long told me he didn’t want to move, saying:“They’ll have to get a tractor to move me outside to tackle. I’d rather get in a fist fight in a phone booth [at guard] any day. Those guys outside, there’s too much space. Too scary out there.” Well now.

These are the guys who are blocking for Jay Cutler and he's the one with the bad attitude all the time. His tackle doesn't want to protect him at that spot on the offensive line because it's "too scary." I can't imagine why Cutler is in a foul mood all the time. 

5. I think this was the headline of the week in the NFL, from the New York Post, on Sunday, after the Eagles cut Tim Tebow: “GOD MAN OUT.”

Peter expected something better than this? Why would he? 

8. I think Carson Palmer has some interesting comments about football preparation.

On the air pressure he prefers in footballs: “The air is … we never mess with the air. Whatever is legal, he’s by the book. I never notice [if it’s 12.5 or 13.5 psi], I don’t know the difference but if it was low it would be great, obviously. The softer the ball, the easier it is to grip and throw a tighter spiral, especially if it’s wet, especially if it’s windy. If it's windy that throws a whole new angle at it. I’ll play in snow and rain but when it gets to 40- and 50-mph winds, if you can grab the ball a little bit better, it cuts the air better. If it’s rainy you can grip it a little better but between 12.5 and 13.5, I wouldn’t know.”

So what I'm hearing is that Carson Palmer likes a softer ball and has no idea whether the ball he throws has too much or too little air in it, but he definitely prefers a softer ball if possible. I think Roger Goodell should begin an investigation immediately into whether Carson Palmer has knowledge of football deflating. Turn over your phone, Carson!

On Brady: “It’s been so media-overload, when stuff like that starts happening, I just can’t even turn on ESPN. Rules are the rules. If the balls were below, the balls were below. There’s a reason.

Right, but Carson Palmer, who throws footballs for a living, just claimed he has no idea if a ball is over or under-inflated according to the NFL rules. He states he has no idea what the PSI of the ball is, so rules are rules, but if the balls were below, then the balls were below. He's missing the basic question of whether the balls were below. Tom Brady is expected to know the exact PSI of a ball even though Carson Palmer admits he wouldn't know the exact PSI of a ball unless he was told.

9. I think if you have a spare $18.88, a good investment that might yield a pretty great weekend is available at Weekend With The 88s. Carolina tight end Greg Olsen wears 88, and NASCAR driver Dale Earnhardt Jr. drives the number 88 car and is based in nearby Concord, N.C. If you win, you get a tour of Earnhardt’s garage and Bank of America Stadium on Saturday, Oct. 31; a helicopter ride to Earnhardt’s race on Sunday, and sideline passes and game tickets to the Panthers-Colts game in Charlotte on Monday night, Nov. 2. The fund-raiser benefits Levine Children’s Hospital in Charlotte, with is near to Olsen’s heart.

I see what you did there, Peter. Very tasteful. Did all of the kind words about Dr. Z and how much he is missed by his colleagues make his wife speechless? A fund raiser at Levine is close to Olsen's heart. This isn't egregious or anything, but considering what Olsen's son went through it's just another example of Peter writing something that isn't in the best of taste. Who cares though? How many people has Greg Olsen killed?

In 2012, Olsen’s son T.J. was born with a non-functioning left side of his heart, which required surgery, and he spent 40 days getting treatment there.

See, it's close to Olsen's heart because his son's heart didn't work! Get it? His son spent 40 days in the hospital getting his heart repaired and fundraisers at Levine Children's Hospital are close to Olsen's heart. Oh no! Another unintentional mini-gaffe from Peter. He doesn't intend to write these things, but they just happen. 

10. I think these are my non-football thoughts of the week:

c. Jayson Stark with the MLB Factoid of the Year: Bryce Harper scored four runs Thursday for the Nationals without swinging at a pitch.

d. You can look it up. Four at-bats against Atlanta. Sixteen balls, four called strikes, four walks. Four runs and one RBI, and he never swung in 20 pitches.

This was against the Braves. The fact Bryce Harper had to actually step in the batter's box means this was unimpressive. I could score four runs against the Braves' pitching without even leaving the dugout.

e. Great read by ESPN.com’s Israel Gutierrez on a current event in his life.

Peter thinks Gutierrez is having a "gay wedding." 

h. A bad day, by the way, for the Christian Hackenberg-as-top-overall-2016-pick crowd.

Christian Hackenberg will be the top pick in 2016 in the same way that Jake Locker was going to be the top pick in 2010 or 2011. Just ignore his progression as a quarterback in college and convince yourself to see those things that you want to see. 

i. Regarding Matt Harvey and the Mets and James Andrews and the innings limit they’re fussing about: Why doesn’t Harvey have an MRI done right now, to see if his Tommy John-repaired elbow is in perfect condition? If it isn’t, then the innings limit seems wise. If the elbow looks fine, why not have a reasonable discussion about whether he should pitch as he’s normally pitching now?

j. I’m interested in hearing from an orthopedist, particularly one who has worked on pitching elbows, to see if that idea is reasonable, or malarkey.

I'm not an orthopedist, but I don't know if a doctor can look at an MRI and start to see a potential tear or problem in Harvey's elbow that he hasn't started to feel as of yet. I don't think elbows are like tread on tires where you can see how much it has been used and how much more it has left in it. I could be wrong about what an MRI shows regarding wear on an elbow, but this MRI idea sounds like a bad precedent as well. A precedent I probably wouldn't want to set if I were Matt Harvey. 

l. Beernerdness: So how was the MMQB Saison? Really, really good. Harpoon brewer Steve Theoharides took great care to brew a classic Saison—yellow, cloudy, flavorful, with a hint of banana and clove (don’t laugh; those are great hints of tastes in a beer).

Basically it takes like a fruity beer. Peter loves himself some beer that just doesn't taste like beer, but tastes like a cocktail mixed with beer. I don't mind a few occasionally, but Peter doesn't seem to drink anything but beer that has hints of fruit in it. 

The Adieu Haiku

My picks stink. So don’t
get ticked if it’s Bills-Niners.
Berman Super Bowl.

I'm not sure I understand this reference to Chris Berman or want to understand the reference. I do understand the Adieu Haiku stinks worse than Peter's Super Bowl pick. 

6 comments 2015 NFL Season Predictions

I made predictions for the NFL season last year that, predictably, didn't turn out as well as I would have liked. That's usually the only prediction I get absolutely correct, that I won't get too many predictions correct. I figured I would go ahead and embarrass myself and try to make predictions again.

AFC East

New England Patriots (12-4): It's fun to be creative and come up with some shocking prediction that will get me 10 pageviews instead of 5 pageviews, but I prefer to be right. I picked the Patriots to be 13-3 last year and I will pick them to win the AFC East until they prove they can not win the AFC East. When that time will be, I'm not sure, but I am sure that having Tom Brady for four more games (you may have heard something about this) really benefits their chances of having homefield advantage in the playoffs. I'm not as worried about their secondary as I probably should be, while I'm more worried about their running game than I should be. 

Buffalo Bills (10-6): I wanted to be in on the Bills last year, but just couldn't do it. This year, I'm buying the t-shirt, the program, and probably going to get a hat as well. I'm in. I like their offensive line, I like Tyrod Taylor getting a chance to be a starter, I don't love Rex Ryan for my team but love him for someone else's team, and they have a great defensive line. This is the Jets team with Rex Ryan, with a really good defense instead of an outstanding defense, but an actual competent quarterback. I'm in. I want to make them go 12-4 or maybe just have them go undefeated. Ride or die...but I will temper myself.

Miami Dolphins (7-9): For the 5th straight year, I WANT to like the Dolphins. I do. Ryan Tannehill is pretty good, he has fantastic weapons in the passing game now, and I think Suh is shockingly overpaid but he will do nothing but help the defense. I think they will be decent, but are going to be hurt by a stretch of the season where they have to play New England, Buffalo, Philadelphia, Dallas, Baltimore, San Diego, Indianapolis, and New England over a 10 week span. I probably used this same reasoning last year, but I don't think the Dolphins have improved enough to merit a prediction that they can win more 10 games.

New York Jets (3-13): I missed hard on the Jets last year, so of course I'll double down and see if I can miss on them even more this year. They are only as good as their quarterbacks can be and I'm not a huge fan of Ryan Fitzpatrick. He's a serviceable backup quarterback, but does he even have something to work with? Brandon Marshall had a down year last year and Eric Decker probably isn't more than a #2 receiver. I think the offensive line is declining and they seem to have cornered the market on plodding running backs with Zac Stacy and Christopher Ivory. It's hard not to love the defensive line and the defense will keep them in games. The problem is I think the offense is going to take them out of more games.

AFC North

Baltimore Ravens (12-4): Was Justin Forsett just a one year wonder or is he going to be able to carry the load for another year? Considering how much the Ravens got out of Ray Rice and they are the Ravens I find it hard to bet against him. I loved Maxx Williams coming out of the draft and this is Steve Smith's last year, so he will be collecting all debts and playing with an even bigger chip on his shoulder. I'm concerned about another receiver stepping up across from Smith, but I think this is a weaker division this year since I'm not high on the Steelers, so I don't think it will stop the Ravens from winning the division. I think the pass rush will be improved this year and the Ravens won't suffer so many terrible injuries to members of their secondary. The defense was 8th in the NFL in yards allowed last year and I look for them to get into the Top 5 this year.

Cincinnati Bengals (9-7): It's shocking to me how many first round picks the Bengals have spent on cornerbacks since 2006. From the 2006 NFL Draft on, the Bengals have spent four first round picks on cornerbacks. Maybe it's not, but that seems like a lot of first round picks on corners. Regardless, is this the year that Andy Dalton loses it and isn't able to lead the Bengals to the playoffs? I felt this way last year and was very wrong, but doesn't it feel like Dalton is trending downwards and any day now he will implode and turn into a younger Matt Schaub? This team seems so obviously a playoff team on paper that I find it hard to predict what kind of season they will have. The defense will be good, especially with Michael Johnson back from being on loan to the Buccaneers, and I think this will be Jeremy Hill's breakout season.

Pittsburgh Steelers (7-9): A couple of things bother me about this prediction. First, Ben Roethlisberger is awesome and has great weapons around him. By putting the Steelers at 7-9, I'm essentially saying Roethlisberger can't win 7 games with Wheaton, Brown, Bryant and Coates as his receivers and a Top-5 running back in the backfield. That sounds crazy. Second, it's the Steelers. The last time they had a losing record was 2003. Before that it was 1999. Predicting the Steelers to go 8-8 or better is the way to be right. My issue lies a lot with the Steelers defense. I try not to take preseason into account, but the Steelers are adjusting to a new defensive coordinator and they are getting shredded in the preseason. Plus, they play nine games against teams from the playoffs and four of the last six games are on the road. I think the Steelers are going to struggle on defense and even Roethlisberger won't be able to pull them to .500. Book your Super Bowl tickets now, Steelers fans!

Cleveland Browns (5-11): I was high on the Browns last year. I've learned my lesson. Even if I felt good about Josh McCown, which I don't, I would be worried about his receivers. For example, he doesn't have good receivers to throw to. In fact, that's the only example I want to use. I like the offensive line, but I don't like any of the running backs who can run behind the line. The Browns have two of the most popular "Holy shit, that guy is athletic, watch for him to breakout this year" tight ends in the NFL in Gary Barnidge (breaking out since 2008) and Rob Housler (breaking out since 2013). The Browns should absolutely start Johnny Manziel. It's not even a question for me. I still like their defense pretty well and with Danny Shelton in the middle they won't be run on like they were last year. Still, this offense is terrifyingly bad. Start Manziel. He probably isn't going to be "the answer" but at least he can do things that will keep the defense on their toes.

AFC South

Indianapolis Colts (13-3): This is the year that Andrew Luck is the MVP. It's going to happen. I'm not going to lie that I generally hate how the Colts have been put together. There's no need to be as deep at wide receiver as they are when Luck needs more protection and a defense that was middle-of-the-pack last year (12th against the pass, 18th against the run, 11th overall) could use some improvement. They are building the team like it was built around Peyton Manning. Obviously, that worked to an extent. Still, is it necessary to spend a first round pick on Phillip Dorsett when there can be more marginal improvement elsewhere on the roster? The Colts were 10th in the NFL in takeaways, but it was helped by 14 fumbles they recovered. I'm nitpicking, but what is going to win Andrew Luck the MVP is also going to make me wonder if the Colts can win the Super Bowl when Ryan Grigson continues to give Luck weapons on offense rather than not be satisfied with just an average to above average defense.

Tennessee Titans (9-7): I know, I shouldn't like the Titans as much as I do. Let me share with you the two reasons I like the Titans. First, I like the choice of Marcus Mariota with the group of receivers the Titans have around him. Second, Tampa Bay, Cleveland, Jacksonville (twice), Carolina, Oakland, and the Jets. Those are the teams they play this year. The Titans defense was awful last year, but I think they will be improved this year with the addition of Orakpo as a pass rusher and Zach Brown healthy all year. Mariota isn't going to be great this year, but he's smart with the football and he has players around him at skill positions with talent and a decent offensive line (minus the position Byron Bell ends up playing). The Titans will improve on defense and have improved at the quarterback position, so I think they could very well make the playoffs.

Houston Texans (8-8): J.J. Watt. That's the only player I should talk about here since he doesn't like the spotlight, but hold on let him appear in a few commercials and take a few selfies while criticizing others for doing the same. He's a fantastic player and a front seven with Watt, Clowney (healthy), Wilfork, and Benardick McKinney is a really good front seven. So how far can the offense take them? That's the question for me. According to the depth chart on ESPN.com, Ben Jones will be playing center and left guard, so that should be interesting to watch. Can Alfred Blue live up to be the starting running back until Arian Foster comes back? We'll see, but DeAndre Hopkins is going to have to continue his improvement to make up for the fact Cecil Shorts III is probably best fit as a third receiver. Brian Hoyer has to show marked improvement under Bill O'Brien or it's going to be a long year.

Jacksonville Jaguars (5-11): Stupidly and stubbornly, I don't believe in Blake Bortles (now he will light up the Panthers in the first game of the season). Credit to the Jags to put weapons around him to give him a chance to succeed, but I wasn't a huge fan of his coming out of college and I'm not buying the positive reviews coming out of the Jags training camp. I could be wrong, quite easily in fact. It doesn't help him that Julius Thomas is out for a month, but I like a lot of the offensive skill players the Jaguars have. I just don't like Bortles that much. Defensively, it would be nice if a defensive-minded coach like Gus Bradley didn't have the 26th ranked defense in the NFL after his second season as a head coach. I don't see the improvement on the defensive side of the ball that will catapult the Jaguars into a playoff spot.

AFC West

San Diego Chargers (11-5): The Chargers are another team who I think will end up with a Top 5 defense this year. They were 9th in the NFL last year and have Melvin Ingram and the addition of Denzel Perryman will help them as well. Plus, Eric Weddle isn't going to be back next year and he's playing for a new contract. On offense, even getting Danny Woodhead back from injury is going to help the running game. They drafted Melvin Gordon and though I'm not entirely sure he's not a product of that Wisconsin running game, he at least is a warm body that can fall forward better than the guys the Chargers had last year. I think the Chargers are going to win the AFC West as long as Philip Rivers stays healthy. Plus, they have to prove Los Angeles that they are worthy of their affection, which is something I'm sure the Chargers players really care about.

Denver Broncos (10-6): I'm betting against Ben Roethlisberger AND Peyton Manning. Clearly, I'm the dumbest person on Earth. I laugh at the idea Peyton was dehydrated and that's why he didn't play up to his standards later in the season and in the playoffs. That's ridiculous. The Broncos have had some offensive line injuries and Peyton Manning isn't the most mobile quarterback on the planet. He has great awareness and I could be underestimating C.J. Anderson, but I'm afraid the offensive line will be an issue for Manning this year, plus he's dealing with a head coach in Gary Kubiak that has his own kind of offense he wants to run and it has to mesh with what Manning wants to do. Defensively, I think the Broncos are still going to be strong, but early suspensions in games against Kansas City, Baltimore and Detroit (two of those games on the road) could cause some gnashing of teeth early in the season. The Broncos are still a good team, but I'm not as convinced the line play on both sides of the ball is going to help them win more than 10 games.

Kansas City Chiefs (8-8): This could be new news to you, but the Chiefs have Jeremy Maclin now. Everything is saved. Now Alex Smith will throw at least 3 touchdown passes to a wide receiver this season. I'm still very concerned that Alex Smith is throwing the football to receivers who probably shouldn't be starting or are one injury away from starting in the NFL. Maclin helps, but there's not much behind him. Travis Kelce will have to step up big. For those keeping track, Jamaal Charles is 28 years old and had his total yardage fall from the 2013 season. It's a matter of time before he runs off the cliff of production. I don't mean to put the Chiefs defense on the backburner, but they will have a great pass rush again, but color me skeptical that Ron Parker magically figured out how to be an NFL starting safety at the age of 27. The Chiefs have a good defense that will be held back by an offense that is going to need to be creative in passing the football.

Oakland Raiders (5-11): Derek Carr (I still type "David Carr" instead) and Amari Cooper are the next great QB-WR combination of the future. I can perhaps buy that. My two biggest issues with the Raiders are their running game and their defense. The Raiders were 21st in yards allowed per game, 16th in passing yards allowed, 22nd in rushing yards allowed, but 32nd in points allowed. Maybe they are just unlucky. But hey, they drafted a defensive end from Florida State, so that should work out, right? I believe with all of the strengths this defense has (Mack, Woodson being an encyclopedia of knowledge, and the somewhat underrated Dan Williams), they aren't good enough in some spots and too old in others. The Raiders couldn't run the ball last year, so they didn't do much besides sign Roy Helu Jr. to improve on this. Granted, I like Helu and think he is going to have a good season, but I don't think he can carry the load the way the Raiders need him to if it turns out 82 carries for his career means Latavius Murray isn't a feature back.

AFC Wild Card: Baltimore Ravens over Denver Broncos, San Diego Chargers over Buffalo Bills

AFC Divisional Round: San Diego Chargers over New England Patriots, Indianapolis Colts over Baltimore Ravens

AFC Championship Game: San Diego Chargers over Indianapolis Colts

NFC East

Philadelphia Eagles (12-4): It's really not hard to get excited about the Eagles. As long as Sam Bradford doesn't get injured (repeat that 10 times and it may happen, but probably not), they have such great running back depth and talent at skill positions. For a racist, Chip Kelly has put together a pretty good team. The questions begin with the defense, which will be a knee-jerk reaction based on the fact there is less perceived talent there and the pace at which the Eagles play on offense will be blamed for defensive shortcomings. The secondary can't be much worse than it was last year, even if I'm not in love with Byron Maxwell when he's not on the Seahawks team. Assuming improvement on defense and better quarterback play, this is the team to beat in the NFC East. Of course, if Bradford gets injured and the defense doesn't improve, then I will be totally wrong.

Dallas Cowboys (10-6): Given all the injuries they suffered last year, I have no idea how the Cowboys were as good as they were. It still confuses me. They probably have the best offensive line in football and they will get Sean Lee back from injury. While I don't think they are a bad team, a lot of the success the Cowboys had last year was predicated on running the ball so well. I think they take a step back because McFadden will get injured, Christine Michael has been inconsistent in his career so far and Joseph Randle has tempted fate with his comments about how DeMarco Murray left some yards on the field. Take away the run game and Tony Romo (or any other quarterback usually) becomes less effective. Plus, in a division with the Eagles and the Giants wide receivers, the Cowboys secondary is bordering on a disaster. Of course, a great pass rush makes the secondary look good and the Cowboys have Randy Gregory and Greg Hardy, both of whom I can see getting 10 sacks on the season.

New York Giants (5-11): I think I said last year that it felt like Tom Coughlin's last season in New York. Maybe I will be wrong again, or just a year early. Eli Manning is playing for a new contract, while two of his best receivers (Randle and Cruz) are nicked up. It was smart for the Giants to draft an offensive lineman to protect Manning, but the real question I have is whether drafting to protect Manning will result in great 2014 Manning or 2013 Manning? Either way, the Giants are dying to try to find a quality safety somewhere, anywhere and they suffered some injuries at the linebacker spot. Give Jon Beason a new contract, watch him get injured. That's how it goes. My bottom line is the Giants have too many holes on defense for me to believe they will have a season where they make the playoffs.

Washington Redskins (2-14): I will be shocked if this isn't a disastrous season in Washington. It feels like things have started going downhill before the season even started. The head coach is over his head, the front office is the typical Redskins front office, they are starting the wrong quarterback, and have I mentioned the head coach is over his head? I can't see this team going anywhere with Kirk Cousins as the quarterback, even if I think the defensive front seven is probably going to be good enough to keep them in games. I can't measure intangibles (obviously), but this Redskins team has negative momentum and seemingly no intangibles. I can't see the season getting better with a head coach who doesn't seem a right fit for a meddling front office with a quarterback who is a turnover machine.

NFC North

Minnesota Vikings (11-5): My love for Teddy Bridgewater colors all that I do and see. At least I'm upfront about it unlike others. I think he was the best QB in last year's class and is going to absolutely thrive with Adrian Peterson in the backfield with him. I'm not in love with the Vikings offensive line, but the Vikings have a deep threat in Mike Wallace and Charles Johnson was really good when he got more targets later in the 2014 season. Cordarrelle Patterson may never be a great receiver, but can set the offense up with good field position on kickoffs. The thing I like most about the Vikings is the young guys on defense. Floyd, Barr, Kendricks, Griffen, Smith, and Rhodes. I almost put them in the Super Bowl, but held back on the giddiness just a little bit. The Vikings will have a good pass rush and the offense is going to do more than their part. They are the team to beat in the NFC North.

Green Bay Packers (10-6): Picking the Vikings means my long time favorite Aaron Rodgers pays for my supporting Bridgewater. These things happen. It's all guessing anyway, but I don't think the Packers are going to be better on defense than they were last year. They led the NFL in turnover differential. Losing Jordy Nelson on offense is a huge blow and not being as strong at linebacker I think means the defense takes a step back. I still have the Packers in the playoffs, but I think they will take a two game step back in the win column.

Detroit Lions (7-9): It's well-known that I'm not a huge Jim Caldwell fan. The Lions were good last year though and I could be wrong about him if the Lions are good again this year. They are certainly investing in Stafford by giving him Ameer Abdullah (who I think could be the Rookie of the Year) and Laken Tomlinson, which is always good news. But...they lost a lot of what made the team strong up front to free agency and that can't be good for a team that was 19th in the NFL in yards allowed per game. A lot of that came from the Lions being so good at the run. A great pass rush can make a team's secondary look better than it is, while an average pass rush can make a team's secondary look worse than it is. I think it will be the second option for the Lions this year. Offensively they will score points, but teams will also score against them.

Chicago Bears (6-10): Betting against John Fox is a bad idea in general. He's a pretty good coach. Betting against Jay Cutler is a not-so bad idea in general. His teams haven't tended to be successful. Fox is great at adapting to his personnel and then squeezing any originality and risk-taking out of that team's offense. Wait, that is the bitter me (and Broncos fans?) talking. It makes me feel good that Fox has a good staff around him, because he's going to have to turn Cutler into a more conservative quarterback in order to have success this year. Cut the turnovers and hope the defense can do their part. It's hard to bet against John Fox, but with the injuries to Cutler's receivers and the fact I think the NFC North will be improved, it's hard for me to be too optimistic about the Bears.

NFC South

Atlanta Falcons (9-7): Someone has to win this division, right? I look for the NFC South to reignite the "Should division winners get a home playoff game if they have a shitty record?" discussion again. Atlanta was horrible on defense last year, so they brought in a defense-minded coach. I'm not sure Dan Quinn can singlehandedly make the Falcons better on defense, but drafting Vic Beasley Jr. and signing Brooks Reed could help. The Falcons are going to be better on offense as long as Matt Ryan is given time to throw and Tevin Coleman is given a running lane to go through (neither of which are a given). Regardless, Matt Ryan is smart with the football and probably knows how to adapt to the pressure at this point. The Falcons should do better on defense and that's enough to win this shitty division.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (6-10): Jameis Winston has come into a great situation. He has Mike Evans and Vincent Jackson to throw the football to. It's hard for a rookie to come into a better situation, especially if Doug Martin rebounds from a tough season last year. Winston seemingly has the tools to succeed and now he just needs more experience. The defense is...going to be okay I guess running Lovie Smith's preferred style. I do wonder where the pass rush is coming from and I'm not finding a ton of answers right now. The safeties make shrug and the corners should be better than they look on paper. If Jameis Winston gets used to the NFL faster than expected and Lovie Smith makes progress on defense, then I can see the Buccaneers being this year's "worst to first" team. I won't predict it though.

Carolina Panthers (6-10): I like this year's Panthers team more than I have liked the past two teams. I don't think the talent is there to win the division, even a crappy division. I don't trust Michael Oher at left tackle and the fact Cam's best receivers are a tight end (albeit a good tight end), a rookie who isn't close to being as good as Kelvin Benjamin, a guy who can't catch the ball apparently, and Jerricho Cotchery does not bode well. Jonathan Stewart will get injured and the secondary is shaky until the team invests in the position, plus there's no telling if the team will find a second pass-rusher or not. Cam is talented, but he isn't great at making his receivers better (so he's not Peyton Manning, which we all knew anyway). As a fan, I like the direction of the team, but I'm not sure this is the year the direction leads to Ron Rivera's second winning season as a coach.

New Orleans Saints (5-11): I picked the Saints to win the division last year, but I'm not making that mistake again. Now watch them win the division this year. It feels to me like this is a team that has talent, but is running on fumes at a few spots on the roster. C.J. Spiller is going to fit in well, especially when he's on the field the same time as Brandin Cooks. New Orleans had the best offense in the NFL last year, so they can score gain yardage, but they were 9th in the NFL in points scored. I don't know how improved the defense is going to be this year, and while I know Sean Payton is a good offensive coordinator, it will be interesting to see how the offense functions without Jimmy Graham. They were 21st in sacks last year, and while sacks aren't the end-all to determine how a team disrupts the opposing quarterback, releasing Junior Galette with no obvious replacement ready isn't going to help that number increase. I don't see Saints doing better than 8 wins this year.

NFC West 

Seattle Seahawks (11-5): Bet against Russell Wilson at your own peril. He has God AND Recovery Water on his side. Seattle is the beneficiary of the Saints having salary cap problems and trading Jimmy Graham as a result. Tyler Lockett and Graham give Wilson two great options in the passing game he did not have last year. I still wonder what happens if Marshawn Lynch suddenly gets old, as running backs tend to do. Maybe Fred Jackson can step in and provide production, but he's not exactly young. So much of what the Seahawks do depends on Lynch's running ability. The defense is still deep along the front seven and talented. The only thing that can stop the Seahawks from being one of the best defensive teams in the NFL is things like players holding out and not playing regular season games. I feel the Seahawks will barely beat out the Cardinals to win the division again and I'm not betting against God's favored vessel.

Arizona Cardinals (11-5): If Carson Palmer is healthy, the Cardinals are going to be in the playoffs. I say this despite the fact I have no idea what kind of running game they will get from Andre Ellington, David Johnson, Chris Johnson or any of the other guys on the roster. If the Cardinals get a running game, then watch out. They have improved their offensive line with Jonathan Cooper getting another year under his belt and the signing of Mike Iupati. Defensively, there will be a drop-off from losing Todd Bowles, but I think it will be manageable given the continued development of Tyrann Mathieu and Deone Buccanon at the safety spots. Sean Witherspoon could have an excellent year if he can adjust to the 3-4 defense and stay healthy. Bruce Arians has done a great job and I think the Cardinals make back-to-back playoff appearances.

Los Angeles Rams (7-9): I should have put them at 8-8 in honor of Jeff "8-8" Fisher, but decided against it. Credit where it's deserved, the team got rid of Sam Bradford and will no longer rely on him to be healthy. Now to take credit away, they are relying on Nick Foles to be the 2013 version of himself and not the 2014 version. The Rams have a defense full of high draft picks and talented players. It's a defense that can win games, but despite choosing the guy who is easily the best running back in the 2015 draft (Todd Gurley), I don't believe they can make the playoffs. As well as they have drafted on defense, they have drafted that poorly on offense. Maybe I'm wrong. Maybe the Rams have a great year in St. Louis before scampering off to Los Angeles while wondering why St. Louis fans didn't love them enough this year.

San Francisco 49ers (4-12): I don't see how the 49ers can lose Jim Harbaugh, most of their linebackers, their right tackle and the various other players they lost this year and still compete. If the 49ers make the playoffs then Trent Baalke should be Executive of the Year. The left to middle side of the offensive line is still quality, but Vernon Davis and Colin Kaepernick have to bounce back from relatively sub-par years for them. Carlos Hyde and Reggie Bush make for a good combination on paper, but my worries begin and end with the defense. It's a very unproven group and a lot of the talent (Justin Smith, Aldon Smith, Patrick Willis, Chris Borland) is no longer around and that has to take a toll on them. NaVorro Bowman will do his best to provide leadership, but on a team where the struggled scoring points and passing the ball last year, I'm afraid the defense will have to do more than it is capable at this moment. I don't even have time to comment on Jim Tomsula, the guy who has replaced Jim Harbaugh, which is an impossible job in the first place.

NFC Wild Card: Seattle Seahawks over Atlanta Falcons, Arizona Cardinals over Green Bay Packers

NFC Divisional Round: Philadelphia Eagles over Arizona Cardinals, Minnesota Vikings over Seattle Seahawks

NFC Championship Game: Philadelphia Eagles over Minnesota Vikings

Super Bowl: Philadelphia Eagles over San Diego Chargers

I'm not sure I'm happy with that result...

2 comments 2015 NBA Mock Draft

My mock draft last year got all messed up in the beginning as it seems most of my NBA mock drafts do. So I figured I would go ahead and show how stupid I am for at least one more year and try to post a 2015 NBA mock draft. Last year no team really screwed up my mock like the Cavs did in 2013 (thanks again, guys), I just made bad predictions. It's par for the course I guess. This year the 76ers may have another chance at drafting a center and there are some quality foreign-born players in the draft, which we all know makes Chad Ford pee in his pants with excitement. I'm guessing I will get five picks right this year, which could end up being a record of some sort. I'm aiming high, just so the fall will be harder. Undoubtedly my picks will be ruined after the Lakers' pick. Heck, the Lakers may even screw up the rest of my mock.

It's tough, because I want my picks to be correct, but I also understand if I follow the mock drafts out there then my picks will end up being wrong. Mock drafts are very rarely extremely accurate. So I am going to miss on some picks because I didn't follow the mocks, while I may hit on other picks based on how my mock is falling. Guessing is fun until you want your guesses to be correct. 

1. Minnesota Timberwolves- Karl-Anthony Towns, PF

Here is my deal with this pick. Try to hold on to the roller coaster of my opinion. This is the right pick. Minnesota is the perfect place for Jahlil Okafor, so this is a big loss for him. Okafor needs to be paired initially with a rim protector and I have a huge man-crush on Gorgui Dieng. I think he would be the perfect guy to pair with Okafor. Towns is probably the right pick here, but if I were the Timberwolves I would be tempted to go with a player who has lower potential, but has a great offensive game to match up with Andrew Wiggins developing skill set. That's Okafor. Towns is an upside pick, a pick for good defense and maybe the right one. I would choose Okafor. I'm not mad at them for taking Towns because it makes sense as well. It's not the wrong pick, just not the pick I would make.

2. Los Angeles Lakers- Jahlil Okafor, C

It's tempting to go with D'Angelo Russell here, but if you look at his numbers in college, he tended to struggle going up against good teams. Of course, there wasn't many other great players on the Ohio State squad to help Russell, so he can be forgiven for that. The two big concerns about Okafor are overblown in my opinion. Conditioning and defense. He's a 19 year kid, so his conditioning issues are overblown. Many true centers would have conditioning issues at the age of 19. It's how it goes, but the evolution of the NBA away from a back-to-the-basket center has sort of covered up for this. "True" back-to-the-basket centers aren't in peak physical shape at 19 years of age. He did play 30 minutes per game at Duke, so it's not like he hasn't played bigger minutes. Defense is an issue, but defense can be taught. Again, Okafor is 19 years old and hasn't had to play defense because he's so good on offense. I don't think he will be a great defensive player, but he will end up being good enough. Pairing him with a shot blocker initially is a good move. That means, don't pair with Julius Randle. Oh well. Okafor has some professional post moves and he is an excellent passer. The Duke offense ran through him, but it didn't have to go THROUGH him if that makes sense. He was effective in college when not taking shots and still getting touches every time down the floor. I apologize for the length, but I have strong feelings about Okafor. He may not be Hakeem Olajuwon, but he's a center who will be able to score the basketball in the post. Those are hard to find. I know he seems to lack athleticism and upside, but he can play basketball.

3. Philadelphia 76ers- D'Angelo Russell, PG/SG

Here is where things get shaky. I have no idea who the 76ers may pick. Would they pick Okafor if he fell to them? No, because then the Celtics would trade up for Okafor (right?????????). I'm going with consensus here because the 76ers need guards. I know Sam Hinkie is "accumulating assets" but Tony Wroten, Hollis Thompson, and JaKarr Sampson are currently projected to be among the players at the guard spot for the 76ers. They need guards and though I do have some reserves about Russell that I can't pinpoint exactly, he's the sort of Steph Curry-type (not in terms of shooting ability) which teams are going to covet. The Sixers could take Emmanuel Mudiay and shock the world, but from the trade of Michael Carter-Williams I think it's clear they had their fill of taller point guards.

4. New York Knicks- Kristaps Porzingis, PF/C

Now it gets even fuzzier. If the Knicks even keep this pick, who will they select? It seems the Knicks value versatility and Kristaps Porzingis appears to be versatile from every scouting report I have read about him. He can protect the rim and allow Carmelo to play the power forward position. Of course, everything I know about him is based on the hype train that has been running through the Interwebs and I have never actually seen him play. I hope he fails miserably because his name is hard to spell. Also, Knicks fans are not going to like the idea of the team taking a foreign-born player as Frederic Weis is still fresh in their minds. I'm sure Chad Ford loves Kristaps Porzingis. Indeed, he does. Ford thinks every team should draft Porzingis. I'm sure Ford will be outraged if Porzingis goes anywhere past #7. Based on Ford liking Porzingis I'll go ahead and say this is a bad pick for the Knicks.

5. Orlando Magic- Justice Winslow, SF

The Magic just traded Luke Ridnour yesterday. WHAT DOES THIS MEAN FOR THIS PICK? I may have made this pick simply because I want to see Oladipo, Payton, and Winslow play together. I am throwing Willie Cauley-Stein in here as a wild card selection. The Magic need a rim protector and they may as well just admit that drafting Aaron Gordon probably will end up being a huge mistake. Just give up on him prematurely, that's the ticket. I think it would be interesting to see Cauley-Stein in this spot, but he has less offensive game than Aaron Gordon did coming out of college, so I can't see the Magic choosing an athletic dude without any semblance of offensive game twice in the lottery. Winslow will be one of the three best players in this draft. I believe that. I think he has a brighter future than Okafor has. He can guard multiple positions, is a good shooter and a great competitor (as long as the refs continue to allow him to run over the opposition without calling a charge).

6. Sacramento Kings- Emmanuel Mudiay, PG

George Karl likes his point guards and Emmanuel Mudiay plays the position of point guard, so that seems like an ideal fit. I think Karl is going to want to take a point guard considered a talent like Mudiay is considered to be, simply so he has someone running the offense Karl wants to run effectively. I do not like Emmanuel Mudiay all that much. He's a slasher who is a bad foul shooter, he's not a great shooter, and he has people around him who give him mediocre advice (I get going to China to play for money reasons, but I think attending SMU would have been the best choice). I'm not a fan, but Mudiay has the "upside" NBA teams like, so he goes #6 in the draft.

7. Denver Nuggets- Mario Hezonja, SF

This is another foreign-born player that I don't know very much about. I know he is confident in his abilities and the Nuggets need a player at his position. He supposedly has the personality required to in tough situations, and unlike some foreign-born players, has had success overseas prior to coming to the United States. I wish I knew more about him. I know he seems to be confident and that is something the Nuggets can build on, right?

8. Detroit Pistons- Sam Dekker, SF

Obviously these are all guesses, but I'm really guessing here that the Pistons would favor Dekker's athletic ability and shooting over the "upside" of Stanley Johnson and any other player who conceivably could be considered to be a smarter pick. I'm a little torn on Dekker. I see the potential and he had a great NCAA Tournament. I think this would be a little early to take him though. Stan Van Gundy will value Dekker's height and ability to play the stretch-four spot with Drummond at center. Maybe he's the American version of Hedo Turkoglu. At worse, Dekker can play small forward and Ilaysova can play the four spot, which means the Pistons still have height and outside shooting to surround Drummond with.

9. Charlotte HornCats- Stanley Johnson, SF

I hear the HornCats need shooting. This is probably why every mock draft but a few have Devin Booker mocked in this spot. I'm going in a different direction though. I think the HornCats are going to go with Stanley Johnson, even with the trade of Gerald Henderson and Noah Vonleh. I do not like Stanley Johnson, as I feel he is more potential than anything else. He could turn into something great and with Michael Jordan calling out his team's talent level recently it makes sense to me the team doesn't go with a guy who is just a great shooter like Devin Booker is.

10. Miami Heat- Willie Cauley-Stein, C

Cauley-Stein is an absolute freak of an athlete. I love watching play, but also have no clue what to do with him. He's a center, but he can guard multiple positions, but he also has very, very little offensive game. That offensive game could come in time though and this is a BPA pick since it doesn't appear the Heat need another center with Hassan Whiteside breaking out. That being said, Cauley-Stein is also insurance against Whiteside wanting to be overpaid next summer (and who wouldn't want to be overpaid?) and Whiteside ending up being a one year wonder.

11. Indiana Pacers- Cameron Payne, PG

I don't think the Pacers will be picking in this spot, because I believe they will do what they can to move up. This is another pick I'm torn on. If the mock draft goes the way I have it going, I don't know if the Pacers try to get Myles Turner in this spot. I probably don't like Devin Booker more than other teams do, so I should mock him here. Larry Bird has seen how Lillard and Payton went from small schools to success in the NBA and the biggest knock against Payne is that he comes from a school that isn't huge. I don't think this will matter to Bird. It doesn't matter to me either. Payne poured in 23-7-4 against Xavier and 23-4-6 and 20-6-10 against Belmont. Those were pretty good teams last year. He can be a starter in the NBA, despite "only" playing for Murray State.

12. Utah Jazz- Frank Kaminsky, PF/C

It's so hard not to mock Frank Kaminsky in this spot. I in no way think Kaminsky is the best talent available, but I do believe he fits what the Jazz want to do. I probably am incorrect in having Kaminsky fall this far. Adding him to a lineup featuring Derrick Favors and Rudy Gobert would be a problem for other teams, especially if Gordon Hayward is playing the small forward spot in this lineup. The Jazz need a big man off the bench to shoot and provide a different look. I don't think Trey Lyles is that guy and it's too early to reach for a "true" point guard. Kaminksy will be a productive shooter in the NBA, but I'm not sure he'll be more than that.

13. Phoenix Suns- Myles Turner, C

It's hard to fairly evaluate Myles Turner because he played for Rick Barnes. Rick Barnes is not a good head coach, so is it Barnes' fault that Turner didn't quite turn into the freshmen he was supposed to be? Turner runs like he's 50 years old, but he can shoot the three-point shot* and block shots. I warned the Suns against drafting Alex Len a few years ago, so it's clear they don't listen to me. Myles Turner can block shots though, so hopefully he'll stop hanging around the perimeter in the NBA and get on the low block where I think he has the best chance of succeeding. To me, Turner is a stretch four that isn't good at running the floor, an okay shooter and he's sort of soft (in my opinion). It's a wasted pick, but I can see why the Suns would make it.

*He CAN, but he only shot 27% and I don't see any reason that he should be hanging around the three-point line as he is already 240 pounds and his body should fill out more as he ages.

14. Oklahoma City Thunder- Devin Booker, SG

Another tough choice here. The Thunder were giving regular minutes to Anthony Morrow last year and Morrow has one skill, shooting the three-point shot. Why not take the best three-point shooter in the draft and see if he can turn into something more than that along the way? The reason I say it is a tough choice is there are guys with higher ceilings available who could very well turn out to be great NBA players in time (Lyles, Oubre), inside guys who can provide rebounding and toughness (Harrell, Portis), as well as Justin Anderson who is a great all-around player. The Thunder needed bench help for most of the year last year and Devin Booker at worst will be an excellent shooter, maybe another Anthony Morrow.

15. Atlanta Hawks- Bobby Portis, PF

I'm assuming the Hawks are the Spurs of the East Coast. They like guys who play defense, know their role and can do several things well (of course, who doesn't like that?). There is no way the Hawks keep Carroll and Millsap, so they are going to need some more frontcourt depth. The Cavs seemed to kill them on the boards in the playoffs, while Portis isn't ever going to be accused of not providing enough energy and effort. It seems Portis fits what the Hawks are looking for in a player, though again, there are guys with higher upsides available. If the Hawks are wanting to go in that direction then I think Kelly Oubre or even R.J. Hunter could be the pick.

16. Boston Celtics- Kevin Looney, PF

The good news is the Celtics have a lot of options because they have quite a few holes in the lineup. Their whole starting lineup seems to consist of guys you would want on your team, but possibly not starting for a playoff team. I don't think the Celtics will be making this pick in this spot, but if they do, then there is a glaring need at small forward and power forward. I'm neutral on Looney. He's a good rebounder and is a good scorer, but he's also skinny. Weight can be put on and I think if the Celtics make this pick then they could go with a guy who I think has been slightly underappreciated in this draft.

17. Milwaukee Bucks- Montrezl Harrell, PF

For some reason, this selection makes a lot of sense to me. The Bucks need frontcourt help and Harrell has a chance to be an excellent rebounder in the pros. The Bucks have some guys up front, but I'm not sure they have a frontcourt player with the toughness that Harrell possesses. He's probably not going to be a star, but he's a violent dunker and a nice counter to what the Bucks currently have on the roster.

18. Houston Rockets- Rashad Vaughn, SG

Eh, Rashad Vaughn. I mean, I guess. He seems to be like a volume scorer who doesn't mind chucking up three points. Granted, he hit many of them in college, but I wonder if he's worth a first round pick or not. I've already accepted that Daryl Morey is smarter than I ever will be, so I should probably just assume I'm wrong. Players can improve defensively and Vaughn would definitely fit on this Rockets team in that he is a great shooter, but I just don't see him becoming worth a Top-20 draft pick.

19. Washington Wizards- Jerian Grant, PG

The Wizards need some more guard help and Grant can play both guard positions. As much as I love Ramon Sessions and Garrett Temple (I'm kidding, I HATE Garrett Temple), the Wizards could use another guard that is capable of scoring. Grant is a little older than the other NBA prospects, but I think he can at least be a reliable bench player. Now that I have said that, he'll be released in early October by whatever team drafts him in the second round. 

20. Toronto Raptors- Trey Lyles, PF

There is no logical reason for Trey Lyles to fall this far. If he is available here, then the Raptors should jump on him. Lyles played out of position nearly all year for Kentucky. This affected the perception of him in this draft. He is not a small forward, he is a power forward, and the Raptors have skated by on James Johnson, Amir Williams and Patrick Patterson at the position over the last few years. If Lyles is gone, which I reasonably expect he will when the board shakes out, then I envision them taking a defensive-oriented small forward like Hollis-Jefferson or Justin Anderson. Speaking of Justin Anderson...

21. Dallas Mavericks- Justin Anderson, SG/SF

I'm not sure shooting guard or small forward is a popular position for the Mavericks to choose in the first round, but with Justin Anderson the Mavs may be having some minor flashbacks to how Josh Howard worked out for them late in the first round a few years ago...minus the drug issues of course. Virginia really struggled without Anderson last year when he was injured and it wasn't hard to see why. He's a much improved shooter and can really play defense. If all goes wrong for him on offense, then his defense will keep him on NBA rosters. He can play small forward and allow Chandler Parsons to play the power forward spot in smaller lineups.

22. Chicago Bulls- R.J. Hunter, SG

I didn't really love the Doug McDermott pick (or trade as the case may be) last year, so I'll just mock another good shooter I don't really like to the Bulls again. The Bulls could certainly use both of them, and I like McDermott more than Hunter. R.J. Hunter is a shooter who isn't really even that good at shooting. He averages 7 three-point attempts per game and makes 35.4% of them, including only making 30.5% of his three-point attempts this past year. That's...not great. He shoots almost 50% from two-point range, but half of his shots are from three-point range. Maybe it was the team around him at Georgia State which causes defenses to focus on him and him force shots, though I doubt it on a mid-major team that had Kevin Ware and Ryan Harrow. I don't expect Hunter to be in the NBA in 3-4 years.

23. Portland Trailblazers- Christian Wood, PF

If the Blazers lose LaMarcus Aldridge, then drafting a skinny kid from UNLV probably won't make them feel very good, but even if they do re-sign Aldridge then they will need more depth at the power forward position. I may be having Wood get drafted a bit early here, but he made dramatic improvement from his freshman to sophomore year at UNLV. I think Wood could be a contributor to the Blazers if they are patient enough with him. He's a modern big man, meaning he can shoot and block shots, but isn't at all a back-to-the-basket type of player. Unfortunately, he weighs like 46 pounds, so he needs to hit the weight room and then hope for some patience on the Blazers' part. 

24. Cleveland Cavaliers- Rondae Hollis-Jefferson, SF

There's no telling who LeBron will pick here. I kid, I kid. In seriousness, Hollis-Jefferson is going to have a Tony Allen-like existence in the NBA. He's an excellent defender, and while his offensive game needs some help, he would fit in well with the Cavs due to his great defense and versatility. He's not going to be a star, but I think being like Tony Allen is his ceiling. I think I could handle that if I were the Cavs.

25. Memphis Grizzlies- Kelly Oubre, SG/SF

Oubre needed to stay in school one more year. I think if he had done that then he would have been a lottery pick for sure. As it is, he's probably going to be taken outside of the lottery. Bill Self should have chained Oubre in the basement and forced him to stay one more year. He couldn't crack the lineup for a portion of the season and never totally lived up to expectations. He has the potential to be that type of wing player the Grizzlies are in need of having though. When he cracked the starting lineup for the Jayhawks, he scored and showed what he is capable of. Still, one more year would have made him more ready for the NBA and increased his stock. As it is, I don't see him being drafted in the Top 15 and I don't think he's ready for the NBA at this point.

26. San Antonio Spurs- Tyus Jones, PG

It seems easy to just say the Spurs will pick an international player here. I won't cheat and pick an international player though. Terry Rozier will not be the pick here. I can just feel it because Rozier is too much of a wild card for Gregg Popovich. This is probably a fantasy pick for me, because I think Jones would fit in well with the Spurs. Jones will never have the ideal NBA body and athleticism, but he's a smart player who has shown he isn't afraid of big moments. I think he will make a really good backup point guard for a contending team. I question if he will be able to get in the lane as a pro like he did in college and I think being a poor man's Tony Parker (albeit being a better shooter than Parker was at 19 years of age) is probably Jones' ceiling.

27. Los Angeles Lakers- Delon Wright, PG/SG

Delon Wright is the typical guy coming out of college who is going to fall not due to his skill set, but because he is older than most prospects and doesn't have the ceiling most other draft prospects have. I have a hard time figuring him out, because I don't know if he will adapt very well to the NBA game and thrive or be overmatched. His improvement from year-to-year at Utah leads me to believe Wright can be a bench contributor in the NBA, but he has to continue to improve his shooting and get used to not being the main facilitator on offense. The first round may be a bit early for him.

28. Boston Celtics- Robert Upshaw, C

Anybody but a Syracuse center. That's all I ask. Again, I don't think the Celtics will be making this pick, but if they did then this is an area where taking a troubled talent like Upshaw may make sense. After all, the Celtics have wasted picks on big men like Fab Melo and Colton Iverson, so they may as well spend one on a player who has actual talent, yet is a dipshit and keeps getting kicked off teams. The shot-blocking talent is there and the Celtics desperately need a rim protector. If Upshaw isn't worth the risk here in the first round, then the Celtics may choose to take him in the second round where he doesn't have a guaranteed contract.

29. Brooklyn Nets- Cliff Alexander, PF

Alexander was a highly touted player coming into his freshman year at Kansas. Then he ran into some issues trying to get time on a deep Kansas team and also ended up on not playing in the NCAA Tournament due to eligibility issues. Rest assured, he has tremendous potential and at the #29 spot in the first round the Nets should take a player with potential to help out on their front line. In 17.6 minutes as a freshman, Alexander averaged 7.1 points, 5.3 rebounds and 1.3 blocks. He may never be any good in the NBA, and I hate drafting players on potential, but for a Nets team with salary issues taking a talent like Alexander late in the first round is a good risk.

30. Golden State Warriors- Olivier Hanlan, PG/SG

This is admittedly a shot in the dark. Of course, most of these picks in my mock are shots in the dark. The Warriors could use another combo guard with Barbosa and Livingston both becoming free agents (I believe) and I think Hanlan is an underrated prospect. Look at his stats. If he puts those up at a school that isn't Boston College then I think he would be considered a first round pick. He is slightly turnover-prone, but he can get to the rim and since the Warriors like to spell Curry for a longer period of time (compared to other star players) then a scorer combo guard like Hanlan will fit in well.

Feel free to mock my picks after they are all wrong or a big trade ruins my entire mock draft.

5 comments 2015 NFL Mock Draft

I don't know why I insist on posting a mock draft every single year. I think I just like guessing in the slim, slim hope that I will look smart. This is last year's mock draft I posted. My favorite part is how I mock Peter King saying the upcoming draft is just so incredibly unpredictable, as if this doesn't happen every year. If an unpredictable draft happens every year then doesn't that mean the draft is actually predictable? Peter is doing it again this year, saying how there are no sure things in this draft like there have been in the past. This is, of course, revisionist history. Without further ado, here are my attempts to guess at the draft order, and yet again, I won't predict trades. This thing will be torn apart by the first trade, I do realize that.

1. Tampa Bay Buccaneers- Jameis Winston, QB

I feel like if Jameis Winston was more well-liked then his struggled with interceptions would have been written off as resulting from having lost so much offensive talent around him at Florida State after the national title in 2014. Winston would be tagged with the "he's just a winner" label regarding how he may struggle in games, but then will come up big when his team needs him. Interestingly, I don't see either the excuse or the label given to him. I'm notoriously bad at judging QB's coming out of college (except Blaine Gabbert...I never liked him), but other than what seems to be a semi-long windup I think Winston really has a chance to be a good QB. But again, I really didn't like the Cam Newton pick. There is sort of a "curse of Jimbo Fisher QB's" thing that should bother me (Ponder/Manuel/Russell) more than it does. And yes, Winston has growing up to do. Most athletes coming to the pros from college do. At least I'm getting this pick right.

2. Tennessee Titans- Marcus Mariota, QB

I'm dying to pick Leonard Williams here just to be different in the hopes I nail the pick, but this is supposed to be who I think each team will pick. The Titans have been waving this pick around, but I think if they like Mariota as well as it's claimed they do then they will draft him here. I can't imagine what offer would make the Titans move out of this spot if they really think Mariota is a franchise QB. Heck, would three first round picks be enough to move out of this spot if Mariota was only a Top-10 QB? Probably not for me. It's a quarterback league.

3. Jacksonville Jaguars-Vic Beasley, OLB/DE

I don't think the Jaguars are going to keep this pick, so it will probably be another team picking. I'm not entirely sure where Beasley fits in on a defense honestly, but he's the type of speed freak who can get to the quarterback. That sounds like a good role. He's not great against the run supposedly. Still, David Caldwell seems to consistently pull some bullshit in the draft and I think the talk of Cooper or Leonard Williams here is a way to get another team to move up so the Jags can draft Beasley a little later in the upper first round and get a pick or two out of it. I don't know if Beasley will be an All-Pro guy, but ESPN not having him as a first round pick is absolutely ridiculous.

4. Oakland Raiders- Leonard Williams, DE

Jack Del Rio is an defensive guy and the Raiders have quite a few needs. I think they should draft a receiver here, but it seems the Raiders like Leonard Williams a lot more than I do. I don't think he's going to be terrible, but I'm not sure he'll be the force that the Raiders are going to want. I will say this, not giving Derek Carr more to work with is a mistake. This isn't quite as deep of a receiver class as last year's draft and I would take White or Cooper.

5. Washington Redskins- Dante Fowler Jr, DE/OLB

I don't really love this pick for the Redskins. I am not sure the Redskins keep this pick, so it may not matter. I don't know who to pick. My gut says Amari Cooper, but the Redskins lost Orakpo in free agency and they probably feel like they don't need a #1 receiver with Garcon and Jackson on the roster. I'm not saying that's right, but Fowler will help give the Redskins a stronger pass rush and they can worry about other spots later in the draft.

6. New York Jets- Kevin White, WR

I prefer White to Cooper, so maybe that's affecting my decision. Yes, Todd Bowles is a defensive guy, but he also coached in Arizona where he saw what having Larry Fitzgerald and a strong group of receivers can do to help a quarterback that isn't so talented. The Jets have upgraded the defense in the draft and they are giving whoever the quarterback is a fighting chance with White/Marshall/Decker as the three-wide depth chart. This is good news for Geno Smith if it happens. Maybe he'll forget he's in the NFL and think he's back at WVU.

7. Chicago Bears- Danny Shelton, DT

I feel like I know John Fox fairly well and a defense that can't stop the run won't last long when he's the head coach. He had Kris Jenkins in Carolina and Terrance Knighton in Denver, while the Bears need a run-stopper. Fox prefers his defense to rush four at the passer and get to the quarterback that way (which coach doesn't prefer that, but Fox seems to really prefer that). His first pick as Bears coach will be a defensive pick me thinks and he loves his run-stoppers who can also get pressure on the quarterback up the middle.

8. Atlanta Falcons- Brandon Scherff, OT/OG

This is a tough pick because the Falcons need pass rushers in the worst way, but they also need to shore up an offensive line that got beaten up last year. I am not sure the Falcons won't try to trade up more than they will try to trade back and get another pick to move out of the #8 spot. It's tough for the Falcons that Gregory and Ray have off-the-field issues because they could use that talent. Maybe they still take one of them here. I say protect Matt Ryan and find a pass rusher later in the draft. And yes, I know pass rusher is a big need, but the Falcons were beaten up on the offensive line last year.

9. New York Giants- Ereck Flowers, T

I am going to hate myself (okay, not really) if Amari Cooper is the pick here. I really, really want to mock Cooper here, but the eternal fight for the Giants to improve their offensive or defensive line takes precedence in what I think the Giants will do. I wouldn't be surprised to see Randy Gregory get picked in this spot. I read on Walter Football there is another issue that NFL teams know about that the public/media doesn't know about regarding Gregory, but I also read this on Walter Football, so who knows if it's the truth? Maybe the issue is that scouts think Gregory is stupendously stupid, which is what was reported yesterday. Either way, I think Gregory is absolutely astoundingly talented and could be the pick here if the Giants have the balls. So yes, I basically just sort of picked two guys in this spot and actually picked Flowers. Sue me.

10. St. Louis Rams- Andrus Peat, T

Peter King, who basically works for the Rams it seems to me sometimes, thinks the Rams are taking a tackle. Greg Robinson did not work out in his rookie year like the Rams thought he would. This doesn't seem like the right pick here, but I can't figure out who else the Rams would select if they didn't go offensive tackle. I'm not feeling a wide receiver and the Rams really don't have a ton of other huge needs without reaching. They have to protect Nick Foles, so Peat is the choice.

11. Minnesota Vikings- Devante Parker, WR

It's fashionable to say the Vikings will pick a CB here, but with the team saying this is a big year for Corradelle Patterson (that may be how he spells his first name, maybe not, I'm too lazy to look it up), I can't help but think the Vikings find a corner later and give their franchise quarterback another offensive weapon to work with. Maybe it will be an offensive lineman, but as you can tell, I'm a big fan of giving a quarterback offensive players in the draft. The Colts proved how this can work wonders. Plus, Parker and Bridgewater already have great chemistry.

12. Cleveland Browns- Amari Cooper, WR

So the Browns would run to the podium to make this pick, right? Maybe not, but I would. The Browns still need wide receivers and I can't think how Cooper fell this far in my mock. If the Browns are gutsy they would take Todd Gurley. I really, really think he's going to be a stud and their running game was awful last year. Maybe they are a little shy about taking a RB so early after the Trent Richardson Experiment and wide receiver is really a much greater need.

13. New Orleans Saints- Bud/Alvin/Simon/You & Me Dupree DE/OLB

I'm not sure what his name will be in the NFL, whether it is Bud or Alvin, but the Saints need defenders in Rob Ryan's defense. Supposedly this is too far for Dupree to fall, but we will see. Knowing Sean Payton, he'll draft Todd Gurley in this spot and force me to cheer against a guy who I think will be an absolute stud. In my mind, Dupree will be the guy.

14. Miami Dolphins- Todd Gurley, RB

Trae Waynes is just sitting there, begging to be taken. He's considered to be among the top corners in the draft, so I could easily see him being taken by the Dolphins. They could go with an offensive lineman too, but this is the part of the draft where the pick each team takes will be based partly on need, but mostly on what players are available. There are a lot of players with similar talent levels in this part of the draft. Todd Gurley would give the Dolphins the type of consistent running game that they have lacked and he'll be Ryan Tannehill's best friend because of that.

15. San Francisco 49ers- Trae Waynes, CB

I have seen Arik Armstead mocked here repeatedly. I can't help but think it's going to be another player simply because of that. It will be a defensive player if you ask me, so the questions becomes which defensive player. The 49ers lost two corners in the offseason and Waynes is one of the three best corners in the draft (or one of the three guys considered to be the best). I think this pick makes too much sense for it to happen. I wouldn't mind mocking a linebacker like Eric Kendricks here, but I think the 49ers feel they can get a guy later in the draft like they got Borland/Bowman at the linebacker spot in the third round.

16. Houston Texans- La'el Collins, OT/G

Man, this is a tough pick because I've seen a bunch of receivers mocked here. I always think that means a team has done a great job with a smokescreen and won't choose a receiver at all. I think the Texans could use offensive line help and if they don't choose a wide receiver here then upgrading the tackle or guard spot with Collins could be the next choice. Currently, the Texans depth chart on the inside of their line could use an upgrade and Collins can play multiple spots on the line.

17. San Diego Chargers- Cameron Erving, G/C

It's tempting to take a running back here, but the Chargers really need to upgrade the interior of the offensive line. I know, I know, two straight interior linemen in my mock draft. This will never happen because the NFL likes shiny prospects that are difference makers and interior linemen are boring...until you don't have any good ones. It's a good pick too since running backs can be had later and Ameer Abdullah could be available in the second round.

18. Kansas City Chiefs- Nelson Agholor, WR

The Chiefs were awful at wide receiver last year. I don't want to put too much of the blame on Alex Smith, but I would probably like to put more on him than others are putting on him. At some point, a lack of touchdowns from the receivers also reflects on the quarterback. Andy Reid does what he wants and upgrading the receivers shouldn't be done simply because the Chiefs overpaid Jeremy Maclin. I can see Andy Reid loving the thought of Agholor and Maclin on either side to keep the defenses honest and catch the ball in space.

19. Cleveland Browns- Arik Armstead, DT/DE

I think this is a good choice for the Browns here. Armstead is from the "unproven, but look at his size!" mold, but he would provide some versatility for the Browns along the defensive line. He's huge and could make a good edge rusher or interior guy on passing downs for the Browns. I don't believe the Browns will go offensive line with this pick, but my picks are probably going to be 80% wrong anyway.

20. Philadelphia Eagles- Jake Fisher, T

Yes, he went to Oregon so it's a cliche to say the Eagles will pick him. I simply don't believe that Chip Kelly will pick a wide receiver here because he's proven this offseason he believes he can find guys who can fit his offensive scheme and make it work. It won't work without an athletic offensive line to block for Sam Bradford and Fisher is used to play in up-tempo offenses at Oregon. I think Fisher will play guard since the Eagles are hell-bent on getting rid of Evan Mathis. Of course, I should expect Chip Kelly to go with a running back here or take a guy projected to be a fourth round pick.

21. Cincinnati Bengals- Randy Gregory, DE/OLB

One of the more underrated aspects of the Bengals defensive decline last year was the lack of a pass rush. They got Michael Johnson back after being on loan to the Buccaneers for a year, but Randy Gregory is the best pass rusher available at this spot and I don't think the Bengals get shy about picking him. Weirdly, I can see them taking a wide receiver in this spot as well. After last year in the playoff game against Colts, it was obvious that if half of the receiver depth chart gets injured then Dalton is going to struggle. Of course, that can be said for nearly any QB.

22. Pittsburgh Steelers- Byron Jones, CB

The Steelers have had success identifying really good receivers later in the draft, and while it may be tempting to pick another position of need on defense, they need corners badly. I think it will be Byron Jones over Kevin Johnson. Every year the Steelers seem to have a guy fall to them and I can't figure out who that will be this year. So I go with need and one of the best players still available.

23. Detroit Lions- D.J. Humphries, T

I have no idea who the Lions will pick. Melvin Gordon makes too much sense for it to happen and I don't know if the Lions are really going to spend a first round pick on a DT after letting two first round DT's go in free agency. I'm tempting to mock a cornerback here, but they need to keep the offensive line strong and they can start Humphries at RT if necessary and then move him over to LT at some point in the future.
 
24. Arizona Cardinals- Grady Jarrett, DT

Not a terrible position for the Cardinals to be in. There are a couple offensive linemen available, Melvin Gordon is available, defensive linemen and there are cornerbacks to choose from. Again, this is the part of the draft where there are guys who seem to all be similarly talented. Gordon is probably the obvious pick at first glance, but the Cardinals are going into the season with interior linemen that I'm not confident will hold up against the run. Jarrett is a big guy who may not be an ideal nose tackle, but he can play end or nose tackle in the Cards' 3-4 defense.

25. Carolina Panthers- Kevin Johnson, CB

The Panthers GM goes with best player available, so I would have to guess who I think is the best player on their board. It doesn't help the team has needs at a ton of positions. They've been interested in drafting safeties over the past few years (but just not done it), so Landon Collins could make sense and the GM stated he likes where they are at with wide receivers (I could like it more, but whatever, I'm not the GM). They have shown a ton of interest in Shaq Thompson and Thomas Davis isn't getting younger. I almost want to make that the pick, but I think the 4-5 tackles the team wants are off the board and they go with the highest rated player at a position of need. The Panthers could use this pick on any position except QB or TE.

26. Baltimore Ravens- Breshad Perriman, WR

I think I mocked a receiver to the Ravens last year as well. I'll just keep doing it until they draft one. They lost Torrey Smith and Steve Smith can't play forever. If Perriman falls this far then I see the Ravens taking him and worrying about their cornerback need a little later. It's popular to have Melvin Gordon get taken here, but I think the Ravens can get a running back to pair with Justin Forsett later on. Of course the draw of a guy like Marcus Peters could end up being strong.

27. Dallas Cowboys- Eric Kendricks, LB

The Cowboys got desperate at linebacker last year and I think the need to shore up the position for the inevitable Sean Lee injury causes them to choose Kendricks over other defensive players in this spot. Melvin Gordon is another popular pick for the Cowboys, but I file that under "conventional wisdom" that seems to be be so rarely correct. So I'm taking a guess (which all of these picks are guesses) the Cowboys go with Kendricks.

28. Denver Broncos- Maxx Williams, TE

Most mocks I looked at had the Broncos taking an offensive linemen in this spot. I think that's a definite need for them. Still, I can't help but mock a tight end in this spot to the Broncos. Kubiak loves using his tight ends and Manning likes throwing to his tight ends. Adding a talent like Maxx Williams to the offense could help make up for the loss of Julius Thomas and it makes sense to me based on the head coach and quarterback's wants. It's getting almost time for Manning to retire, so I have to think the Broncos will want to keep him upright, but also make sure the tight end spot is taken care of.

29. Indianapolis Colts- Cedric Ogbuehi, T

Landon Collins is the most popular pick of popular picks in this spot. The Colts do need safety help, but I'm not sure that comes before making sure Andrew Luck stays protected. Ogbuehi is coming off an injury, but if he had not suffered that injury then he could have been a Top-15 pick. The Colts have needs on defense, but Ryan Grigson has reached there before in the draft, but keeping Luck upright and healthy is of vital importance. It would be fun to see Melvin Gordon taken here, but I think the Colts will value a tackle higher.

30. Green Bay Packers- Jordan Phillips, DT

The Packers need corners too, but the way my mock is falling they could end up grabbing one at the end of the second round. But the Packers were gored by Marshawn Lynch last year and they need a rotation of interior defensive linemen to prevent this from happening again. Phillips fits that bill and the Packers can take care of their corner needs later in the draft. Besides, a good pass rush and preventing the other team from running the ball always makes the corners look better anyway.

31. New Orleans Saints- Melvin Gordon, RB

I don't see Gordon falling out of the first round and the Saints haven't been shy about drafting a running back in the first round before. Plus, they have churned through running backs in the past and drafted Mark Ingram with the hopes that he would stop this from occurring in New Orleans this season. Maybe not ironically, Melvin Gordon could replace Ingram and be that guy who stops a three or four-headed running back attack. I could see the Saints going with a receiver in this spot or possibly an offensive lineman. But the lure of getting Gordon probably would cause the Saints to select him.

32. New England Patriots- Marcus Peters, CB*

The Patriots seem to need cornerbacks and I don't see them selecting Landon Collins here. They need interior linemen as well, so Malcolm Brown could be in play. Most likely, the Patriots will trade this pick and move back a little, but if they keep the pick then I think Marcus Peters' talent will be too much to turn down. Yes, I am going with the cliche "The Patriots can take care of a troubled player and turn him on the right path" mantra the media pushes which never actually happens. I'm just kidding! The Patriots are going to select Jalen Collins because he's another talented corner...wait, he supposedly had drug issues in college? Nevermind, I was kidding about that too. Well, they need a pass rusher, so the best one on the board is Shane Ray. He has issues as well? Ugh, let's go offense. The Patriots could use another receiver, so the final pick is Devin Smith. He has speed and the Patriots could stand to upgrade at receiver. As of noon today, he hasn't had legal troubles.

*Real pick is Devin Smith, WR (I just wanted to show many guys could fall to this point based on personal issues)

Feel free to mock my mock draft. If I have time, I may update it with any trades that happen. We'll see.