7 comments Gregg Easterbrook States the Seahawks Are Rain-Acclimated Which He Says Explains Why They Started Playing Well When the Rain Stopped

Gregg Easterbrook followed up his prediction that either the Colts or the Broncos would win the Colts-Broncos game with the knowledge that NFL teams with stability at head coach and stability at quarterback are generally better teams. Gregg wondered why teams even fire their head coach, since obviously stability is what these teams crave. Don't fire your coach and stability will come! Winning may not happen, but hey, you will have stability. This week Gregg brags about his Seahawks-Patriots third time around pick being correct and jumps back on the Authentic Games Standings bandwagon once it reached a result that he likes. Ignore the results when they are wrong, laugh off the results when they are wrong and then brag about the results once they reach the conclusion that's correct. Gregg's big topic of discussion in this week's TMQ is that weather will play a part in the outcome of the Super Bowl. So that's a riveting topic which goes to show why Gregg tries not to stray from his usual four topic rotation (concussions, fast-paced offenses, why the read-option is dead, some crazy metric he created five minutes ago).

When it rains, baseball players trot to the clubhouse. Basketball is staged indoors. Volleyball, indoors or on sun-drenched beaches. Soccer, a summer sport, usually doesn't play in winter. Ice hockey is almost always in an enclosed arena. 

You may not believe this, but Gregg didn't do a great amount of research before jotting down these sentences. Seems to me this soccer league takes place right in the middle of winter. What do you know, this soccer league plays in the winter too. And God knows soccer never takes place in the rain. Ever.

Among the major team sports, football alone is performed in all conditions.

Except for the football games that have been canceled due to snow, like what happened this very NFL season to a game in Buffalo. But yeah, as long as Gregg ignores all of the examples that prove him wrong, football is performed in all conditions.

From sweltering humidity to freezing cold, in rain, snow and wind, football is a manly man pursuit that laughs at the elements -- unless the team has a domed stadium, of course. "Hot to cold" is a longstanding football goal, meaning the team begins training in August heat and is still playing in the wintry winds of January.

In general, football is played in all weather. Soccer is played in nearly all weather as well, outside of lightning or some other event that could very well also cancel a football game.

In rain and gusting wind at New England, the dome-based Colts were blown off the field. In rain and gusting wind at Seattle, the cold-acclimated Packers lost a close one to the rain-acclimated Seahawks, whose natural habitat is drizzle.

LO-fucking-L! The Colts won an outdoor road game the week before in Colorado. Meanwhile, Gregg is really writing that the Green Bay Packers, the Green Bay fucking Packers, aren't used to playing in the rain so that is why they lost that game to the Seahawks. Oh sure, the Packers are great at playing in frozen rain and snow, but once that rain isn't frozen it just messes their mind all up and they start making conservative play calls and bad decisions that don't initially appear to be caused by the rain, but are totally to be attributed to the rain. See, Mike McCarthy didn't call a conservative game, it's just the fact the rain wasn't frozen messed with his head so much he couldn't function as a play caller.

Gregg makes a lot of things up. It's just in his nature. 

Weather conditions dictated a strange first half at Seattle, where Aaron Rodgers and Russell Wilson, entering the contest with six total career postseason interceptions, threw five interceptions in that half alone. Both teams dropped passes as receivers couldn't hold slick footballs. 

And of course the Packers are used to playing with snow and frozen rain on the football, so the fact the ball was slick from normal rain meant they couldn't catch the passes thrown to them. I would also like to hear Gregg explain how the Seahawks natural habitat is drizzle but they were also dropping passes because the ball was slick. Isn't he pushing the bullshit story that the Seahawks had an advantage because they are used to the rain? So how come they were dropping passes because it was raining? Where is this supposed advantage that Gregg claims the Seahawks have? As always, Gregg is simply making things up.

One Wilson interception looked like a deep completion when released, then was held up by a gust of wind.

But Gregg, you JUST claimed the Seahawks were performing in their natural habitat so they had the advantage. Detailing instances where the Seahawks struggled in the rain is contradicting the point you are trying to prove.

Rodgers threw a pick on a play that began just as the rain increased considerably.

Of course if it were snow or freezing rain then Rodgers would have thrown the ball perfectly fine.

Both quarterbacks had trouble releasing the ball cleanly and missed open receivers.

Gregg can't possibly be this stupid. If both teams struggled, there was no advantage one way or another and his point about the weather is proven to be incorrect.

When weather-based luck favored Green Bay in the first half -- helping the Packers to four Seattle turnovers and a 16-0 lead at intermission -- the visitors seemed to grow overconfident and not consider that weather-based luck might go Seattle's way later. The drop-off in rain and wind arrived just as the Hawks' furious comeback began.

Now I'm confused. So as soon as the drop-off in rain and wind occurred, the Seahawks began to come back? So the Seahawks had the advantage once there was no bad weather and the Packers had the disadvantage because they aren't used to playing in good weather? This is completely counter to what Gregg just wrote. He wrote:

the NFL teams left standing tend to be the ones that can deal with weather...In rain and gusting wind at Seattle, the cold-acclimated Packers lost a close one to the rain-acclimated Seahawks, whose natural habitat is drizzle.

Then Gregg says once the drizzle stopped the Seahawks started to score points. So his point is the Packers played better in the drizzle, the same drizzle that Gregg claims is the Seahawks' natural habitat and allowed them to win the game, while the Seahawks played better in weather without rain and win, yet Gregg claims they are used to playing in the rain and it's their natural habitat. Doesn't this mean Gregg believes the Packers struggle playing in good weather? Of course this is ridiculous. What's more ridiculous is Gregg just writes shit in TMQ and absolutely doesn't care how many times he contradicts himself or whether what he is writing makes sense.

At New England, rain was a factor in five first-half dropped passes, a muffed fair catch and a badly off-target field goal into wind. The Patriots won so decisively that the weather was irrelevant by the end.

Gregg's topic of discussion in this TMQ is how weather impacted the AFC and NFC Championship Games. Then while in the discussion Gregg is basically like, "Weather had no impact on the AFC and NFC Championship Games." Okay, then. So why even bring up the topic of weather if it didn't impact the games?

I can't wait for Gregg to talk about how the deflated balls had an impact on the Colts-Patriots game and then he'll come up with an imaginary curse that has befallen the Patriots due to this.

But in the first half, when the contest was close, Indianapolis seemed totally flummoxed to be playing in rain and wind rather than the ideal conditions the Colts are accustomed to. 

Again, they won a road game in Colorado the week before.

New England outrushed Indianapolis by 94 yards; Seattle outrushed Green Bay by 59 yards. When the weather is bad, you'd better be able to run the football.

The weather wasn't that bad and Gregg has already stated the weather had no impact on the outcome of the Colts-Patriots game.

Now Seattle and New England advance to a Super Bowl in Arizona -- ideal conditions.

Which apparently Gregg thinks are conditions the Packers would struggle in, just as they struggled once the conditions got better in Seattle on Sunday.

In TMQ news, six weeks ago this column foresaw a Super Bowl pairing of Seattle versus New England.

This was TMQ's third try at getting the Super Bowl pairing. At a certain point, it's just guessing and no credit should be given.

Sure, it was a hedged bet; during the season I made several Super Bowl forecasts -- one of them had to turn out right!

You joke, but it's annoying to hear you say you "foresaw" the Super Bowl pairing while admitting that you made several Super Bowl forecasts. I am simply afraid that some people take Gregg seriously.

In the time-honored tradition of analysts who made multiple forecasts only one of which proved correct, that's the only one I will point to.

Fine. Please explain how you say the Seahawks had the advantage because of the rainy weather and then claim the Seahawks started a comeback once the weather got less rainy. I need to know how the hell this makes sense.

I'm surprised Gregg didn't include as one of his Stats of the Week that the Green Bay Packers opened the season with a loss at Seattle and ended the season with a loss at Seattle.

On the third-and-1, left tackle Nate Solder also reported eligible -- the first time he'd done so. This should have been a bright flashing light to the Indianapolis defense. But Colts defenders didn't notice New England went unbalanced line on the play. That made Solder the tight end on the left, though to the defense he looked like the left tackle. The 15-yard touchdown pass to the 6-foot-8, 320-pound Solder was a thing of beauty, and it broke open the contest. 

Note that what happened was the guy who seemed to be lined up as the left tackle was actually a tight end -- same thing that happened on New England's big odd-formation completion versus Baltimore and on Baylor's touchdown pass to an offensive linemen in its bowl game. Because most offenses are right-handed, defenders pay more attention to the offensive right.

What? So Gregg believes because most offenses are right-handed, defenders know this and pay attention to the offensive right? I don't even know what to say to this. Wouldn't defenders pay more attention to the right side of the offense (thereby meaning the left side of the offense from the offense's point of view) since more defenses are right-handed? This is so nonsensical it almost doesn't even deserve a rebuttal. I really, really, really doubt defenses pay attention to the handedness of the offense and then turn their attention to whatever side of handedness the offense is. This is a ridiculous claim.

With Green Bay seemingly in command with the score 19-7 and three minutes remaining, Seattle threw a deep "wheel" pattern to Marshawn Lynch for a 26-yard gain --- his sole reception of the NFC title contest. The Bluish Men Group would get a touchdown three snaps later, and the fateful onside kick was set in motion. 

Middle linebacker Sam Barrington was covering Lynch deep, after first being run through a pick by Seattle tight end Luke Willson. Twice earlier, Seattle had tried this play and Willson failed to pick Barrington off; this time, he succeeded. Warned Seattle was trying to set a pick to get Lynch deep, Green Bay coaches didn't react -- and left the middle linebacker running deep with a Super Bowl invitation on the line.

Gregg is basing this criticism on hindsight. The Packers can't simply put an extra corner on the field every single time that Marshawn Lynch is on the field just in case the Seahawks run this wheel play. More times than not, Lynch will be running the football, which will require a linebacker and not an extra corner on the field. For some reason, Gregg thinks the Packers should always keep an extra corner on the field instead of a linebacker, just in case the Seahawks run this play. Either that or Gregg seems to believe Dom Capers is psychic and knew the Seahawks would run this play, yet decided to cover Lynch with a linebacker. Oh, and Sam Barrington is a lowly-drafted 7th round pick that got beaten on this play. Interesting how his draft status got left out of the discussion.

The Seahawks scored 15 points in 44 seconds to force overtime, then won the coin toss. The football gods were smiling on Seattle, possibly because with 52 degrees, rain and gusty winds at kickoff, the cheerleaders came out wearing miniskirts.

And to think Gregg got an attitude with someone on Twitter who accused him of being pervy, yet week-after-week he acts like a pervy old man who ogles the cheerleaders and encourages them to wear less clothing. Here is the Tweet:

@craigrlowell amazing how morally superior you are to people you've never met. see a therapist
— Gregg Easterbrook (@EasterbrookG) January 9, 2015

That's classic that Gregg calls the guy "morally superior" to people he hasn't met, as if the guy is judging Gregg based on something other than almost a decade of evidence in TMQ that Gregg ogles cheerleaders. As if the words Gregg writes in TMQ aren't indicative of his opinion, feelings or emotions and he shouldn't be judged by them. To take any of the words Gregg writes and come to a judgment is being "morally superior." What a crock. If I write racist crap on this blog could I just say, "Don't judge me as a racist because you haven't met me. See a therapist because you consider yourself to be morally superior to me"? Most likely that excuse wouldn't go over well.

In "Skyfall," James Bond hangs by his fingertips from a high bridge, then from a skyscraper, as does a bad guy Bond is trying to kill. Four times in the 2009 Star Trek reboot, New Improved Kirk hangs by his fingertips from a great height (the first time viewers see Kirk, as a boy, he's hanging by his fingertips). In the second movie of the reboot, New Improved Spock hangs by his fingertips. In "Elysium," Matt Damon hangs by his fingertips from a great height. On TV's "Hawaii Five-0," all the leads at some point hang by their fingertips from a great height; some guest actors too. The 2001 chick flick "Kate & Leopold" had its leads dangle by their fingertips from the Brooklyn Bridge; the movie was a romance!

Really? It was a romance and it showed the leads dangling by their fingertips? It makes no sense to have the leads in any movie hanging by their fingertips, but in a romantic comedy it makes totally no sense! All movies should have certain rules about what scenes they can and can not show based on the genre of that movie. For example, in a romantic comedy there should be no dangling by fingertips, while in action movies there should be no kissing between two characters.

Academy Awards note: Why is there no Oscar for goofiest statement by a Hollywood grandee? TMQ's nominee: Sylvester Stallone apologized for not enough violence in "The Expendables 3" and called the decision to go PG-13 "a horrible miscalculation ... I'm quite certain it won't happen again."

It's not a terribly goofy statement. Those going to see that film were going to see the violence in the movie and going with a PG-13 rating didn't allow the viewer to see the violence that viewer was expecting. Maybe it sounds goofy to Gregg, but as far as Stallone trying to appease his target audience it makes sense.

Has any team ever looked more defeated than Seattle did when Morgan Burnett picked off Russell Wilson with five minutes remaining in the fourth quarter? 

Yes.

Intercepting, Burnett deliberately went down. In retrospect, many are wondering why he didn't attempt a runback. Green Bay thought the game was over: Burnett's teammates made the "get on the ground" gesture. This wasn't a bad decision on his part -- no risk he'd fumble.

It was sort of a bad decision because he could have gained additional yardage and then run out of bounds so he didn't fumble or gained additional yardage and then fallen to the ground before he was tackled to avoid fumbling. There were other options available other than falling to the ground immediately. And no, only one teammate was motioning for Burnett to get down. That was Julius Peppers. It may not have been a bad decision to avoid fumbling, but it was a bad decision to not gain as much yardage as possible before falling to the ground.

Somehow, the Packers managed to take only 64 seconds off the clock and leave Seattle with one timeout before booming a punt. On all three snaps, Green Bay rushed directly into a nine-man box.

Gregg Easterbrook every other week in TMQ: "If Team X had run the ball three straight times and not thrown the ball then they likely would have been victorious."

Gregg Easterbrook this week in TMQ: "Why did Green Bay run the ball three straight times into a nine-man front instead of trying to pass the football?"

The only consistent thing about Gregg is his inconsistency. He has no beliefs, though he loves to espouse all sorts of rules and laws in TMQ, but his only belief is an NFL team should have done what worked. So hindsight is usually required for Gregg's criticism to be justified and he doesn't mind contradicting his previous opinions.

Seattle offered Aaron Rodgers a chance to ice the contest with a long pass -- and as in every other instance in the game, given the choice between conservative tactics and being bold, the Packers went conservative.

Nearly every week in TMQ Gregg tells NFL teams to run the ball to chew up clock and they will surely be victorious. Now all of a sudden, NFL teams shouldn't run the ball at the end of the game to chew up clock. Why? Because it didn't work in this specific situation. Undoubtedly Gregg will never address his previous statements about chewing up the clock at the end of a game by running the ball, because it would show how full of contradictory bullshit he can be.

After the touchdown that made the count 19-14, Seattle onside kicked, and the Green Bay hands team botched the play. Another quick Seattle touchdown made it 20-19 home team. On the deuce try, Russell Wilson was flushed from the pocket and retreated all the way to the Packers 18 before lofting a crazy, cross-the-field pass that was in the air for three seconds -- quite a long time for a pass to be airborne. Tight end Luke Willson, assigned to block, had scrambled left when he saw Wilson in trouble. He caught the deuce pass, which Green Bay safety Ha Ha Clinton-Dix inexplicably simply watched, rather than knock down.

Gregg is simply echoing the same criticism that Troy Aikman had for Ha Ha Clinton-Dix. First off, the pass wasn't in the air for three seconds. I barely counted to two every time I watched the video. Second, Clinton-Dix didn't simply watch the ball while in the air. He seemed to approach Willson and then look like he misjudged the ball and jumped too short to make a play on the ball. I don't know what the hell Clinton-Dix was doing, but he appeared to try and make a play on the ball, only to fail to judge the flight of the ball correctly. Yes, he screwed up, but I think he would have knocked the ball down had he not misjudged the flight of the ball (which he seems to have done). 

Then Gregg goes on a looooooooooong discussion of politics, federal and state spending, and other non-interesting non-NFL topics that I really don't care to discuss while I'm discussing TMQ. 

Tuesday Morning Quarterback is reporting on an exclusive basis that two sources say multiple Seattle Seahawks were injected with grape Ovaltine before Sunday's NFC title contest. "Grape gives you so much more rush than chocolate," an unnamed player said. Long before 5 Hour Energy, Ovaltine promised to keep you going through the day.

What was the point of this paragraph? It's not funny at all. I don't get it.

Right now, most touts have Jameis Winston and Marcus Mariota atop the draft. Don't be surprised if neither ends up there.

#analysis

First, both are Heisman-winning quarterbacks, and beware the Heisman Quarterback Curse. Of the Heisman quarterbacks currently in the NFL -- Johnny Manziel, Robert Griffin III, Sam Bradford, Carson Palmer and Cam Newton -- none has a winning career record.

I wouldn't say this is a curse any more than it is a product of these quarterbacks being drafted by teams that aren't very good. Bradford, Newton, and Palmer went #1 overall to teams that weren't good at all. Palmer would have a career winning record if it weren't for his time in Oakland, Newton is one game under .500,and Manziel wasn't even the Browns starter for the majority of the season. So yes, these quarterbacks don't have a career winning record, but this could have as much to do with them being drafted by teams that aren't very good as much as some fake curse.

Gregg talks about the Heisman Quarterback Curse, how about the Heisman Curse overall? Mark Ingram hasn't lived up to expectations, Tim Tebow is out of the league, Troy Smith is a career backup, Reggie Bush doesn't exist anymore as a Heisman winner, Matt Leinart is out of the league, Jason White was barely in the NFL, the same goes for Eric Crouch, Chris Weinke is a career backup, and Ron Dayne didn't have a good NFL career. The last Heisman winner to not befall the "curse" (though I would argue Palmer and Newton haven't had the curse befall them) of being a non-productive player on a bad team would be Ricky Williams. He has a winning record for his career and he was a productive player.

In the past 20 years, 14 Heisman quarterbacks have departed college. Danny Wuerffel became a star for the Rhein Fire; Gino Torretta, Chris Weinke, Eric Crouch, Jason White and Troy Smith had no NFL achievements; Charlie Ward never put on pads; Matt Leinart and Tim Tebow were flashes in the pan; Palmer, Bradford and Newton became secure starters, but none has a career winning record;

Again, Palmer has a winning record if his time with the Raiders is ignored. All three of these quarterbacks were taken #1 overall by teams who aren't very good, so they started their career out with more losses than wins. I wouldn't call it a curse more than I would call it Gregg judging an individual player on his team's achievement.

This isn't much to write home about and suggests the kind of athletes who become Heisman quarterbacks aren't likely to shine in the NFL -- the major factor being that they played on stacked college teams that made everything look easy.

I would dare Gregg to name three other players on the Auburn roster during the year Cam Newton was there. I'm guessing he couldn't do it, nor could he do it for Carson Palmer or Sam Bradford.

On several downs in the Oregon-Florida State semifinal, Winston's passes sailed far from any receiver's hands. The Seminoles quarterback before Winston, EJ Manuel, has struggled in the pros with accuracy and reading defenses. There will be worries Winston will struggle in the same manner.

This is basically Gregg saying, "Hey two black quarterbacks came from the same university. I know EJ Manuel struggled with accuracy in the NFL and I saw a game where Jameis Winston struggled with his accuracy. I bet Winston has the same issue in the NFL that Manuel has."

As if Winston is the only college quarterback to ever throw a pass far from the receiver's hands or anything like that.

Winston and Mariota both play like a tall Robert Griffin III, which might be a strike against them on draft day.

Oh, a tall Robert Griffin III. Gregg does realize that Winston and Mariota are only two inches taller than Griffin, right? It's not like Griffin is much shorter than other these other two quarterbacks or anything.

With New England leading 7-0, Indianapolis reached first-and-10 at the Flying Elvii 33 and went incompletion, incompletion, incompletion. Chuck Pagano sent out the field goal unit, though a 51-yarder in rain into a stiff breeze was likely to fail. The kick missed badly, which gave New England great field position to take the ball the other way for a touchdown.

I wonder how Gregg comes up with the factual comment that a 51-yard field goal is "likely to fail"? He couldn't just be making this up could he? Surely Gregg knows that Adam Vinatieri was 3-for-3 on the year on field goals that were 50+ yards long. I kid of course. There's no way Gregg knows this. He knows the field goal missed and a long field goal seems like it would be hard to make, so he just says, "Hey, this is a tough field goal to hit, so it's likely to miss" and continues on writing without doing any type of research to see if Vinatieri had success with 50+ yard field goals on the season. Why would he do research when so many of his readers will just believe whatever he writes? 

The New England defense basically toyed with the Indianapolis offense. Bill Belichick likes to "take away" the opposition's best offensive player.

I don't know why "take away" is in parenthesis here.

The Patriots had corner Kyle Arrington shadow T.Y. Hilton pretty much everywhere he lined up -- it looked more like a basketball defense than football -- while shading a safety to Hilton's side.

Well, you know these defenders do "guard" the offensive players like it's basketball. At least that's what Gregg seems to believe.

Belichick knows Baltimore sells out to stop the run, so versus the Ravens, New England passed constantly. 

Gregg took zero steps to prove this as accurate. He's making shit up again.

Belichick knows Indianapolis sells out to stop the pass, so Patriots coaches called 40 rushing plays.

Again, what the hell does it mean and what kind of proof does Gregg have that the Colts sell out to stop the run? Gregg is just saying this is true because he wants it to be true. If the Colts always sold out to stop the pass then every NFL team would beat the Colts by running the football.

Six weeks ago, the Authentic Games metric forecast a Denver-Arizona Super Bowl. I said I didn't trust the metric this year -- though last season, in early December it forecast a Denver-Seattle Super Bowl -- and my gut said New England-Seattle.

So you, and your Authentic Games metric, are equally full of shit? Got it. Carry on.

The metric didn't start forecasting New England-Seattle until three weeks ago.

So what's the point of the metric then? If it's October and I want to use the metric to figure out who will be in the Super Bowl, then the Authentic Games metric would have been absolutely useless to me. It predicts nothing and only simply reacts to the information that it is arbitrarily given by Gregg. The metric didn't choose the right Super Bowl matchup until around the time the playoffs had started and 20 of the teams were eliminated from contention to play in the Super Bowl.

It ends by clearly endorsing the two Super Bowl entrants. If it didn't, I'd be back to the drawing board.

You should go back to the drawing board anyway, because hey, the Authentic Games metric is all for fun anyway and doesn't really predict anything. Right? Isn't that what you told your readers back when the metric was coming up with a result you didn't like? Now all of a sudden, the Authentic Games metric has authenticity again because after 8 tries it finally got the correct result.

Single Worst Game Of The Season -- So Far:

If the Packers were to win the NFC championship, they needed to be aggressive when close. Play-not-to-lose tactics wouldn't work.

Yet after reaching fourth-and-goal at the Seattle 1 in the first quarter, Mike McCarthy sent in the field goal unit, after a third-and-goal play on which the Packers just ran straight ahead, with no misdirection. (At the Indianapolis 1 yard line, Bill Belichick had a tight end shift to split wide, then another tight end shift, then a man-in-motion away from the playside, which resulted in an uncovered man for the touchdown.) After reaching fourth-and-goal at the Seattle 1, again McCarthy opted for a placement kick. Then, upon reaching fourth-and-1 on the Seattle 22, again McCarthy sent out the kicking unit.

I do agree the Packers should have been more aggressive in this situation. Though of course, I don't really give a crap about a team "doing a little dance" or anything like that. The Packers have Eddie Lacy, they shouldn't have to do much but get him to run forward with the football in his hand in order to get a touchdown.

Tuesday Morning Quarterback noted two weeks ago the Packers tend to lose the fourth quarter.

I noted this is because the Packers are often playing a softer defense due to occasionally having a large lead in the fourth quarter.

If there's one place the visitors will lose the fourth quarter, it's at Seattle. So Green Bay could not sit on its hands in the third quarter. On the day, Green Bay rushed for a 4.5-yard average. Go for the first down!

While I do agree the Packers were too conservative, Gregg consistently doesn't understand a 4.5-yard average per rush statistic doesn't necessarily mean much in a third/fourth-and-short situation. Situational down and distance tends to vex Gregg so he just lazily falls back on a team's per carry average for the game as proof that team could easily pick up the first down on third/fourth-and-short.

Next Week: Nominees for the coveted "longest award in sports," TMQ's Non-QB Non-RB NFL MVP.

After taking a year long break from this ridiculous award, Gregg has brought it back. For a guy who lauds undrafted, non-glory boy players, it sure is interesting that of the 13 winners of this award 6 of them were first or second round draft picks. I'm guessing Gregg has given up on the "unwanted/undrafted" team he used to put together every year because he finally realized how ridiculous it was to say a team didn't want a player because he was cut for salary cap reasons. 

8 comments Don't Worry NFL, Gregg Easterbrook Will Figure Out the Playoff Seeding Issue That You and Every Other Major Sport Have

Gregg Easterbrook re-introduced the Authentic Games metric in last week's TMQ. He got a little confused as to whether he thought the Miami Dolphins were an authentic team or not. Gregg's opinion changes so often that he has a hard time keeping straight what he thinks about a certain team, even within the same TMQ. This week Gregg advocated for a revision of the NFL playoff system, updates his Authentic Games metric in order to spit out a new "prediction," and announces he isn't writing TMQ anymore. I'm just kidding about that last part. While that would be nice, it would also leave a huge void in my need to read stupid writing that causes my blood pressure to rise.

Pop quiz: Did you know "Interstellar" is not a documentary? You did? Gregg seems to think it is a documentary.

If the postseason began today, 4-5 New Orleans would host a playoff game, while 6-3 Green Bay would miss the postseason and winning teams Baltimore, Buffalo, Miami, Pittsburgh, Santa Clara and San Diego would be shut out of postseason play. 

Well, Santa Clara doesn't have a NFL team. The San Francisco 49ers do have an NFL team, so yes, they would be shut out of the playoffs. Blame it on the Crabtree Curse. The NFC South sucks, but the Saints have already beaten the Packers and took the 49ers to overtime. My point, and I do have one, is that it doesn't seem fair that the Saints will get a home playoff game but that's just the way it works in every single major professional sport. MLB, the NBA, and the NHL all have separate conferences (or leagues) where the division winner makes the playoffs and teams from one conference can have a better record than a team from another conference and still not make the playoffs. Ask the Phoenix Suns how this works. NCAA basketball works the same way. A 19-13 team may not make the NCAA Tournament, but a 16-16 team could make the NCAA Tournament because they won their conference tournament. In fact, a 16-16 team can beat a 24-9 team in their conference tournament and make the NCAA Tournament, while the 24-9 team does not make the NCAA Tournament. This issue of "unfair" playoff seeding based on division winners isn't exclusive to the NFL.

When oh when will the NFL switch to a seeded-tournament playoff format?

Around the same time every other major professional sport does.

Because the NFL postseason format grants eight of its 12 invitations -- and all its opening-round home games -- to division winners, the NFC South is assured of a playoff prize while the AFC North is assured of at least one team, and likely more, not invited to the party.

The season isn't over yet, but it does look like the NFC South should sufficiently suck for the entire year. Still, there is recent history that says a team with a poor (relative to other playoff teams) season record can succeed in the NFL playoffs.

The fact that the AFC North is clobbering the NFC South on the field won't matter when playoff goody bags are distributed.

Just like it won't matter if the NL West is clobbering the AL Central or NL Central when playoff goody bags are distributed. This isn't an NFL-only issue. The winner of the AL Central or NL Central still get to make the playoffs, no matter their record, as long as they have won their division. This is true no matter how many teams in other divisions that didn't win their division have a better record than the winner of the NL Central or AL Central.

The 2014 season is shaping up like the 2008 season, which ended with all teams in the NFC East and NFC South at or above .500 and all teams in the AFC West at or below .500. When the NFL postseason formula was applied to 2008, the result was that 8-8 San Diego hosted a playoff game while 11-5 New England was not invited to the party. There are many games remaining to be played in 2014, but an outrageous 2008-style outcome may be in store.

And what happened in the playoffs that season? The 8-8 San Diego Chargers beat the 12-4 Colts, the 9-7 Cardinals beat the 11-5 Falcons (from the NFC South), then beat the 12-4 Panthers (from the NFC South), and then beat the 9-6-1 Eagles (from the NFC East) to make the Super Bowl. So teams in the NFC South and NFC East were 2-4 in the playoffs, while teams from the AFC West were 1-1. In fact, if Gregg's style of NFL postseason seeding had been in use during the 2008 season, then the 9-7 Cardinals would not have made the playoffs at all, yet they ended up being the Super Bowl participant from the NFC.

The NFL has been mulling adding two more wild-card teams following the 2015 season. The more the merrier. NFL playoff games are pro football at its best, yet after 256 regular-season contests, a mere 11 postseason games are staged.

After 2,430 regular-season MLB games, a mere 50 possible postseason games are staged. This is a lower percentage of postseason games to regular season games than the NFL has. 

Better than expanding the current division-based field would be a seeded tournament. Divisions could still be used to organize schedules;

Since Gregg is all about the fairness, this still isn't fair. Let's use this current 2014 season as an example. The AFC North gets to play the NFC South and AFC South, while the AFC West has to play the stronger NFC West and AFC East. The AFC North conceivably has a much easier schedule than the AFC West has, so if the intention is to be fair, then using divisions to organize schedules would not result in more fairness. It could make sense to organize a seeded playoff system, but teams who have a more difficult schedule could be punished in this seeded tournament.

The old fixation with whether the NFC or AFC wins the Super Bowl is ancient history -- 99 percent of football enthusiasts would rather see the two best teams meet in the final contest.

99%? This sounds like a factual number based on no data that I see linked to support it. It's almost like Gregg is just making this number up in order to prove his point.

75% of people who read TMQ think Gregg Easterbrook has committed at least three murders, so the police should probably go ahead and lock him up now.

Big-college football is about to dip its toes into the seeded-tourney concept. The NFL should follow.

Yes, but bowl bids are going to be still based on conference affiliation and a 12-0 team like Marshall University still probably won't make the four-team playoff. So if a 12-0 team can't make the four-team college football playoff then is it really the same seeded-tourney concept Gregg is advocating the NFL should follow?

So far Rodgers, Tom Brady, Peyton Manning and Ben Roethlisberger have combined for 99 touchdown passes versus just 18 interceptions. Two touchdown passes for each one interception is among the definitions of a good quarterback. Rodgers, Brady, Peyton Manning and Roethlisberger are at very nearly a 5-to-1 ratio. Is the NFL becoming the Arena League?

I love how Gregg takes the three outlier quarterbacks and asks if the NFL is becoming the Arena League. For someone who perceives himself as being intelligent, he loves to take outliers from a sample size and assume it represents the whole of the sample. There are two quarterbacks in the NFL that have more than a 5-to-1 TD to INT ratio, and they are Aaron Rodgers and Tom Brady. After that, there are three quarterbacks who have a 3-to-1 TD to INT ratio or better. The rest of the 27 NFL quarterbacks have a TD to INT ratio of 3-to-1 or below. But yeah, the NFL is becoming the Arena League because Gregg takes outliers from a small sample size.

The Colts have lost four straight to the Patriots -- but all those contests were in New England. Indianapolis knows this game may foretell the team's postseason prospects.

Yes, if the Colts lose to the Patriots in November then the Colts postseason prospects may be very dim. In fact, the Colts may as well just forfeit the rest of the games on the season.

Stats Of The Week No. 7: Since meeting in Week 1, Jersey/B and Oakland are on a combined 1-17 streak. Noted by reader Colin Size of Buffalo, New York.

Wouldn't it be easier just to say the Jets and Raiders have won a single game combined since they met in Week 1?

Backup quarterback Drew Stanton heave-ho'd deep and John Brown of Division II Pittsburg of Kansas, whom TMQ has been touting all season, made a leaping catch for a 48-yard touchdown.

If it weren't for TMQ, then no one would have known who this John Brown guy is. Thanks for alerting us to him, Gregg.

Then Patrick Peterson "called his shot." Steamed for being flagged for illegal contact, before the next snap he wildly pointed to the crowd and then to himself, as if to say: "Watch this." Snap, and Peterson intercepted the pass.

This is a good example of how Gregg's criticism changes based on an outcome. If Peterson had gotten beaten for a touchdown after this play then Gregg would write, "Peterson pointed to the crowd in a me-first way to show off and get the focus on himself. The football gods laughed and Peterson immediately gave up a touchdown pass because he made the high school mistake of looking in the backfield." Instead, Peterson "called his shot" because Peterson intercepted the next pass. It's funny how the football gods suddenly appear angrily when that's how Gregg wants to present the narrative.

Adding a pick-six on the next Rams possession, Peterson tempted the football gods by waving the ball around well before the end zone.

Undoubtedly, if Peterson ever gives up another touchdown catch in the NFL, Gregg will point to his waiving the ball around well before the end zone as the reason Peterson gave up the touchdown while ignoring any positive plays Peterson had made in the interim.

When the Steelers lost to Tim Tebow's Denver Broncos in the 2011 playoffs, Bruce Arians, then Pittsburgh offensive coordinator, was a convenient fall guy -- he'd bounced around a lot and was perceived as never really successful.

Arians had won a Super Bowl as the Steelers' offensive coordinator and had been with the team since 2004. I sometimes wonder what goes on in Gregg's head. Does he know that he is misleading his readers or does he just create an alternate reality without knowing it? And don't worry, Gregg's lies about Bruce Arians don't stop here. Why would they? He must mislead and lie to his readers to the fullest extent in order to create an alternate reality that matches the narrative he's looking to push.

Pittsburgh scapegoated Arians for the loss and fired him.

Nope. Arians' contract ran out and he "retired." Then Arians unretired to be the offensive coordinator for the Colts. He was not fired by the Steelers. His contract ran out. I feel bad for Gregg's readers who refuse to do any research and just believe whatever Gregg writes. They are being lied to and don't care to know it. Perhaps I shouldn't feel bad for them.

This week it was New Orleans leading Santa Clara 24-21, the Niners facing fourth-and-10 from their own 22-yard line with 1:34 remaining in regulation. No professional defense could possibly not cover a deep receiver in this situation. Yet no one at all from the Saints covered Michael Crabtree as he went deep down the middle for the 51-yard reception that positioned the visitors for the field goal that forced overtime.

Wait, Michael Crabtree caught this pass? What about the Crabtree Curse? Wouldn't this prevent Crabtree catching this pass? I'm confused.

With seven minutes remaining in the game, Kansas City leads 17-13 and Buffalo faces fourth-and-1 at its 41. The Bills punt. Sure they botched fourth-and-1 on the previous possession. But that was then, this is now, what happened the last time means nothing to this time!

But it does mean something this time. I probably would have gone for it in this situation (and of course "done a little dance" since that is guaranteed to get a first down), but if the Bills haven't converted on a short distance down during the game so far, then the odds of them converting fourth-and-1 are probably not very high. Going for it on fourth down is not a coin flip. It's a coin flip involving 22 coins where past history of how 11 of those coins performed on short-and-1 earlier in the game can predict how those 11 coins will perform during that specific short-and-1.

By a schedule quirk, the Chiefs also played at Buffalo last season. In those two games the Bills combined for a total of seven red zone possessions -- yielding no touchdowns.

Don't you love how Gregg only talks about past performance as it relates to present performance when he has a point to prove? Oh look, the Bills can't score touchdowns against the Chiefs as proven by two games where they didn't score a touchdown, but whether the Bills converted earlier in the game on fourth-and-1 has no impact on whether the Bills could convert on fourth-and-1 in this current situation.

It would take approximately three years to reach Saturn sustaining the highest speed so far attained by a manned spacecraft, and seems to take about that, or at least a long time, in the initial space scenes of "Interstellar." Yet once the noble explorers go through the wormhole into another galaxy, planets seem only a hop, skip and a jump apart. Huh?

IT'S A MOTHERFUCKING SCIENCE-FICTION MOVIE! IF YOU ARE LOOKING FOR FACTUAL INFORMATION, THEN YOU ARE THE MORON!

In "Interstellar," mid-21st century society can build spaceships capable of reaching other galaxies, yet can't grow wheat. In the "Hunger Games" franchise, a future society has hovercraft and force fields, yet doesn't know how to grow vegetables. In the big-budget TV series "Terra Nova," 22nd century society could build a time machine but couldn't restrict air pollution, which is already in decline now. Likewise in the big-budget flick "Elysium," 22nd century society can build a luxurious space station the size of New Hampshire, but doesn't know about using catalytic converters to prevent smog.

Gregg is great at false equivalencies. The world can stop ebola and other deadly diseases, but can't stop the common cold. It's not that odd for one huge societal issue to get fixed, while a smaller societal issue remains without a solution. For example, there are many great NFL writers on the Internet so there is no lack of great NFL writing, yet Gregg Easterbrook writes TMQ every week.

TMQ's favorite on this score is the Colin Farrell remake of "Total Recall." In it, future society doesn't know how to clean up damage from a chemical war, yet is able to build a subway tunnel directly through the center of the Earth.

Gregg Easterbrook can thoroughly discuss the financial aspects of space travel and the cost of the space program, but he can't even work a space shuttle. How odd is that?

Not only would this entail engineering in unimaginable pressure and heat, the through-Earth's-core trips described would require speeds on the order of 30,000 miles per hour. Since passengers are comfortably seated during acceleration and braking, that means the future society has devised inertial damping -- a sci-fi standby almost as hard to imagine as time travel -- yet can't clean up chemical spills.

(Makes jerking off motion)

The offensive pass interference call that negated the Saints' seeming winning touchdown on the final play of regulation was unquestionably the correct call. Santa Clara's Perrish Cox executed the best flop in football annals -- when Jimmy Graham pushed off, Cox hurled himself through the air sideways. 

It was a flop, but Graham has seven inches and 60 pounds on Perrish Cox. If Gregg Easterbrook got pushed by a man seven inches taller and 60 pounds heavier than him while running, then he may fall down as well.

Not only was the offensive pass interference correct, it showed integrity by the officiating crew, going against the grain of TMQ's Parking Lot Theory -- that if a call on the final play decides the game the home team gets the call because zebras don't want to be hassled in the parking lot.

Has there ever been a story of NFL officials being hassled in the parking lot? I can't think of one right now. In fact when I search for "NFL officials hassled in the parking lot, this column is the second link provided. Officials being harassed in the parking lot seems like one of the many things that only occurs in Gregg Easterbrook's head.

Authentic Games Standings: Miami lost at Detroit and yet qualified, for the moment, as Authentic;

Miami qualified themselves as authentic in last week's TMQ as well, except for the one time Gregg forgot he made them authentic and then questioned whether the Dolphins should be authentic or not. It's hard for him to keep up with his own bullshit. 

TMQ's Authentic Games Index doesn't have any fixed definitions, just hocus-pocus.

This sentence could be changed to, "TMQ is just hocus-pocus" and it would still be accurate.

My formula attaches value to the number of high-quality opponents faced, even if the result is a loss. Thus Arizona's 4-1 record and Denver's 5-2 are superior in Authentic Games terms to Detroit's 3-0. The Oakland Raiders match the Broncos for most Authentic Games played so far, at seven. Too bad Oakland lost them all.

Isn't it interesting how a team who loses two games out of seven is superior to a team who hasn't lost a game? In fact, I think Gregg's Authentic Games metric is a good example of how his insistence that the NFL re-rank playoff teams regardless of conference or division affiliation isn't the infallible idea he believes it to be. It goes to show how a team like the Raiders would be punished for having had a tough schedule, while a perceived Super Bowl contender like the Packers have played four games against authentic teams and only won one of them. Not that the Packers aren't clearly a better team than the Raiders, but in situations where the talent level between two teams is closer, Gregg's idea of re-ranking teams regardless of conference or division still doesn't achieve the goal of getting the best teams into the NFL playoffs. A team's schedule will always have an impact on that team's record. To claim a 9-7 AFC team that would normally have won their division doesn't deserve to make the playoffs because there is an 11-5 team in the NFC team could be ignoring that the 9-7 team played nine authentic teams, while the 11-5 team only played six authentic teams.

I just don't think the schedule can remain based on conference and division affiliation if conference and division affiliation no longer determines which teams make the playoffs.

So this week Gregg's Authentic Games metric predicts the Broncos and Cardinals in the Super Bowl. My Non-Authentic Games metric based on which AFC and NFC won by the largest margin over the past week says this week the Super Bowl participants will be the Packers and Broncos. Last week it was the Saints and Dolphins. I can't until my metric proves itself to be useful and correctly predicts the Super Bowl matchup.

The Eagles are 17-9, including the postseason, under Kelly, impressive considering football-factory coaches often don't transition well into the NFL (Steve Spurrier, Butch Davis).

Jim Harbaugh and Pete Carroll would argue differently about the "often" part of that statement.

The Nesharim's nine touchdowns on kick and turnover returns are also impressive. But the Eagles have been beating up on the second echelon, only 1-2 in the Authentic Games Index. Monday night, Philadelphia blitzed often versus the troubled Cats.

Again, back to how the schedule could affect a team making the playoffs under Gregg's new system. The Eagles are 1-2 in Authentic Games, while the 49ers could miss the playoffs going 9-7 under Gregg's system and they are 3-3 in Authentic Games. Gregg's intentions for re-ranking teams regardless of division or conference isn't a terrible idea, but it doesn't bring the sense of fairness he believes it does. 

Wasn't it just a couple of weeks ago that the Panthers had a bye and were hosting a divisional game?

It was nine months ago, not a couple of weeks ago.

Trailing Detroit 20-16 on the final snap of the game, Miami had the ball on its 40 for a Hail Mary. Miami attempted a Stanford Band play, and lost 14 yards. There were back-to-back interceptions in this contest, the second a fantastic athletic play by undrafted Brent Grimes of Miami.

Yeah, but undrafted Brent Grimes is now a highly-paid glory boy Brent Grimes with a four year $32 million contract. Gregg will ignore this I guess.

Hidden Plays of the Week: Hidden plays are ones that never make highlight reels, but sustain or stop drives. Santa Clara leading 21-10 at New Orleans, on third down Marques Colston was behind the Niners' secondary for a sure touchdown and dropped a perfectly thrown pass. The hosts punted, then went on to lose in overtime.

I'll take a week off from the "hidden play" lecture I give. You know, dropped passes like this are what happens when lowly-drafted players like Marques Colston are given big money contracts. They start not working as hard and begin dropping passes. Lowly-drafted, highly-paid glory boys don't work as hard.

Rest assured, if Michael Crabtree had dropped this pass then his draft position would have been mentioned. 

Buffalo leading Kansas City 10-3 in the third quarter, the Bills' Bryce Brown was in the clear for what seemed a certain touchdown when Ron Parker of the Chiefs tomahawked the ball loose at the Kansas City 5. The ball rolled through the end zone, Kansas City touchback. Buffalo went on to lose by four points.

Again, I think Gregg means "lowly-drafted 7th round pick" Bryce Brown. Well, he doesn't "mean" this because he won't acknowledge when lowly-drafted players make bad plays, but he loves to point out when a highly-drafted player makes a mistake.

Dolphins and Lions tied at 13 late in the game, the Genetically Engineered Surimi had third-and-goal on the Detroit 2. Tight end Charles Clay dropped a well-thrown pass in the end zone. Miami settled for a field goal and went on to lose by four points.

Gregg leaves out the fact Charles Clay is a 6th round pick. Mislead and deceive by leaving out information when it doesn't prove his point, that's all Gregg likes to do. 

Many readers including Molly Black of Brooklyn, New York, noted this year's Rockettes Christmas show began on Nov. 7 -- before Veterans Day. In December there are six shows each Saturday, the first kicking off, as it were, at 9 a.m.

(Bangs head on the table) The show starts so early because they want to maximize profits by doing as many shows as possible. I still haven't gotten an answer on when this show should start. When is the ideal time for the Rockettes Christmas show to begin? I need an exact date when it is acceptable for a Christmas show like this to begin.

Now that the Jets are 2-8, how soon until Rex Ryan resumes boasting? Leading Pittsburgh 3-0, Jersey/B had first-and-10 on its 33. The Jets lined up in a power-rush set with three tight ends. Michael Vick play-faked and rolled left. Defenses want to force Vick to the right. Because he's left-handed, he's considered more dangerous running left.

Actually, I think the perception is that Vick is more dangerous THROWING the football to the left than the right. I'm not sure how Vick's handedness affects his running ability. Gregg thinks of some crazy shit on occasion.

I do know what Gregg means by stating Vick is more dangerous running left, but he doesn't fully explain what he means. He makes an assumption the reader knows Vick is better at running AND throwing left than he is running AND throwing right.

The Browns Paradox: Should TMQ consider the Cleveland Browns for the Authentic Games index?

I don't think it matters at all if TMQ does or doesn't include the Browns for the Authentic Games index. They are 3-2 against authentic teams, which seems pretty impressive.

Andy Dalton looked like he'd forgotten how to play football -- could Dalton go from Pro Bowl to benched? It wasn't just the three interceptions. It wasn't just his hard-to-believe passer rating of 2. (The league listed Dalton's rating as "2.0" as though this is somehow different from 2.)

Gregg is so infuriating. Passer rating is always rounded to the nearest tenth of a decimal, even when the number being rounded to ends up being a "0."

Last week I asked if any reader with a tax-law or CPA background could explain the likely tax treatment of Nick Saban's home, which was purchased, for about $225,000 more than he paid for it, by a sports promotion foundation and where he now lives rent-free. Numerous readers replied that Saban can exempt the $225,000 gain from capital gains taxes (the exemption level is $250,000 for an individual, $500,000 if married filing jointly) but would need to declare the fair-market value rental value of the home each year and pay ordinary income taxes on that. Jake Peters of Evansville, Wisconsin, put it in haiku:

Sale? Capital gain.
Rent value taxed as wages;
cap gain excluded.

I always wonder who reads and enjoys TMQ. Obviously it is those people who adore accounting and think they are clever by using haikus to explain something. These are the educated people who somehow read TMQ and don't want to be educated as to whether Gregg is misleading his readers with his misleading assumptions and statements.

Buck-Buck-Brawkkkkkk (Pro Edition): The heavily favored Steelers trailing Jersey/B by 20-3 on the first snap of the fourth quarter,

I believe the Steelers were favored by five points or so. That's less than a touchdown and definitely not being "heavily favored." But what good are facts when Gregg can simply make up his own reality and everyone who reads TMQ believes him? Where is the fun in telling the truth or not misleading your audience?

Buck-Buck-Brawkkkkkk (Football-Factory Edition): Trailing TCU 31-14 late in the third quarter, Kansas State punted on fourth-and-4 in Horned Frogs territory. Kansas State went on to lose by 21 points.

And obviously, if Kansas State had not punted then they would not have lost the game. This punt late in the third quarter would have made the 21 point difference in this game.

Single Worst Plays Of The Season -- So Far: On Marshawn Lynch's first touchdown run against Jersey/A, Lynch barreled straight at Giants cornerback Zack Bowman -- who froze and let Lynch go by. On Lynch's fourth touchdown run, Lynch again barreled straight at Bowman, who again just let him go by. Bowman only needed a red cape and he could have cried "olé!" as he stepped aside.

Wow, I can't believe a highly-drafted player like Marshawn Lynch, who was drafted in the first round, was able to make a fifth round pick like Bowman look so silly. As always, if these roles were reversed and a fifth round pick scored four rushing touchdowns then Gregg would mention this player's draft position, while criticizing the first round pick cornerback who didn't make an effort to prevent two of these touchdowns.

Bowman would hold the Single Worst Play of the Season -- So Far distinction except that he's a backup and was on the field only because of injuries to others.

A player only being on the field because of injuries to others has never really stopped Gregg before from criticizing a player for making a bad play. I wonder if the fact Bowman isn't a highly-drafted player has something to do with Gregg not giving him this week's Single Worst Play of the Season -- So Far?

Lined up across from Jordy Nelson, veteran corner Tim Jennings simply stood there like topiary, letting Nelson blow past for an uncovered 73-yard touchdown reception. In a Cover 1, the corner can't let his man go! Next Green Bay possession, Jennings again lines up across from Nelson and again just stands there as Nelson blows past for a 40-yard touchdown. This time the Bears were in Cover 2, a defense that may have receivers covered by the corner short and the safety deep. But twice the man across from the other team's best receiver simply did nothing on a long touchdown pass.

Gregg is correct that in a Cover 1, Jennings should not have let Nelson go to a safety that isn't there. BUT, in a Cover 2 he had covered Nelson short and the safety was supposed to provide help over the top. So once Jennings did let the other team's best receiver go past him and did nothing. The second time Jennings wasn't supposed to do much but cover Nelson short.

Next Week: Can kale doughnuts be far behind?

I wish ESPN.com would leave TMQ far behind. 

10 comments TMQ: Come for the 20% NFL-Related Content, Stay for the 1,500 Words Used to Pimp Out Gregg Easterbrook's Other Writing

Gregg Easterbrook wrote last week about how the Broncos-Seahawks Super Bowl rematch may end up like the Super Bowl did. Except, it didn't. Gregg also talked about concussions (again) and pointed out the later-life neurological decay that occurred in football players. It was smartly pointed out in the comments that nearly every adult suffers from some sort of neurological decay later in life. This week Gregg talks about the NFL trying to control the message and has a new ridiculous curse that has befallen the San Francisco 49ers. What is it about that team that Gregg doesn't like? He creates the Crabtree Curse, then once that is proven wrong he decides the read-option is dead, and now he has created another fake curse suffered by the 49ers.

The NFL has gotten into trouble before, but never has the reaction been so ardent. Many football lovers are sick of every game being prefaced with 15 minutes about controversy, and if you switch to a newscast, it's all about the NFL being denounced.

Peter King wonders whether it is worth giving up on the sport entirely, thereby making him unemployed and forced to work a regular job that wouldn't involve staring at strangers all day and criticizing their behavior. So no, "we" should not give up on the NFL.

What's behind the vehemence of the anti-NFL sentiment? Two basic factors are at play -- one that is the league's fault and one that is unrelated to the NFL.

Thank God that Gregg Easterbrook is here to break this all down for us into easily digestible pieces. I would want someone with Gregg's integrity and strict adherence to facts to explain the two factors at play.

What is the league's fault is that the chickens are coming home to roost...The result is they have no reserve of goodwill to fall back on when times are tough. If the NFL's owners were beloved -- or perceived as playing positive roles in their communities -- they would have a reserve of public goodwill. They have none.

While I agree on a macro level, that the owners as a whole are not beloved, I would disagree more on a micro level. I think within each team's fan base many of the NFL owners are beloved or at least liked on some level to where they have some goodwill. Now in terms of "the owners" as a generic term, as it deals with all 32 of them as a whole, I would agree the owners are not beloved and have no goodwill. I like Jerry Richardson as the owner of the Carolina Panthers. As one of the 32 owners of an NFL team, he can annoy me at times with his actions.

Some think a violent game should not be the United States' national sport. 

Some think a national sport is decided by which sport is the most popular in a certain country, so what or what should not be the national sport is irrelevant.

Some think football has become the eggplant that eats the budget of big public universities or is accorded too much importance at high schools. Some people are angry with how the super-rich owners of the NFL wallow in subsides while restricting health care assistance to former players and are happy to have cheerleaders dance half-naked but refuse to pay them minimum wage, let alone treat them fairly.

I think that Gregg Easterbrook is reflecting a lot of the things he thinks as being the thoughts of many. I understand the NFL gets subsidies and the players get injured, but I enjoy watching the sport knowing that having an NFL team isn't something many cities can claim and the players now understand better what they are doing to their bodies. It doesn't make it right, but I think Gregg's thoughts are the main ones reflected in the "some" who think these things.

And some people simply can't stand that blaring inanity from football drowns out conversation at family gatherings at Thanksgiving and through the December holidays.

And some people like there is an event to build the day around in order to avoid watching shitty and boring holiday movies or re-runs of television shows. It's nice to watch sports rather than watch a dog show or some other boring holiday-themed, event, or special.

It's one thing when The Huffington Post is hammering the NFL. It's quite another when hardcore sports lovers are angry with the league. The chickens have come home to roost, and the NFL has only itself to blame.

I guess the chickens have come home to roost. The NFL has had a lot of hubris in the past. The odd part is much of the hubris they have been accused of having in the past, such as acting like a dictatorship who is the judge, jury and executioner, is where the media thinks the NFL messed up. If Goodell acted tough and semi-draconian towards Ray Rice as he had in the past towards guys like Adams Jones, Ben Roethlisberger and Chris Henry then he and the NFL wouldn't be in this situation. Having a tighter hold and stronger reaction to player discipline as the judge, jury and executioner could have prevented from Goodell from being hammered by women's groups and the Rice tape would have been more irrelevant. Yet, Goodell's tight grip on punishing players strongly is an area where he has been criticized in the past, but his punishing Rice strongly would have avoided this current situation.

But what about the second factor, for which the league should not be assailed? As the most important sport in the most important nation, the NFL holds up a mirror to American society. What we see in the reflection is not an athletic organization but ourselves.

Hmmm...I think I still see an athletic organization.

Just five years ago, the fact that football causes neurological harm was a forbidden topic. Not only would the NFL not talk about it, but high-school coaches and principals also wouldn't talk about it. When concussions came out of the closet as an issue of concern, anger was expressed at NFL indifference. But we were really angry at ourselves. How many youth and high-school coaches, how many teachers and trainers and physicians and nurses, had seen football cause head harm and done nothing?

It's very true. I was pissed off at myself because I was thinking, "I am not in high school or college, did not play football at either level, did not coach at either level, and really could have had no impact positive or negative on this situation...so why didn't I do more to prevent concussions from happening?"

A generation ago, the notion that a muscular, 300-pound man was being bullied would have caused people to laugh. But society's view of bullying has shifted. Bullying is no longer seen as just bad manners; it is now an ethical or even legal question. The NFL was the mirror for that social change.

I mean, not really. I don't think the idea a 300-pound man being bullied would have caused anyone to laugh then more than it would cause a person to laugh now. I don't see the big shift in attitudes towards bullying, but perhaps I'm not in touch with the world like Gregg Easterbrook is.

When an openly gay player was drafted by the St. Louis Rams, the NFL became the mirror in which the issue of prejudice against gays was reflected.

This is pretty laughable. Yes, there was a mirror in which the issue of prejudice against gays was reflected, but it wasn't "the" mirror. This is not only inaccurate but also slightly offensive that Gregg thinks prejudice against gays wasn't reflected onto society until a football player was drafted by an NFL team.

With Ray Rice, the NFL has become the mirror in which we see society's changing attitude regarding domestic violence -- that it should no longer be hushed up. 

So it's a good thing that Roger Goodell lied and tried to cover up whether he had seen the video before suspending Ray Rice for only two games. After all, it helped society change their attitude about domestic violence. See, Roger Goodell DOES care about women! He's taking the hit so they can have issues that concern them brought to the forefront of society.  

In competition news, what a game at Seattle! The Seahawks and Broncos played the contest football enthusiasts had longed for at the Super Bowl. Despite scoring just 11 points in seven quarters against the Seattle defense, Denver did not lose heart in the eighth quarter.

And here I thought the Broncos would have just quit and walked off the field.

Still, many of the Broncos' choices were puzzling. At the Super Bowl, Denver kept trying to throw sideways against the Hawks' press coverage. Your columnist noted, "Denver didn't try to move the ball down the field until the contest was out of hand -- the Broncs' longest first-half gain was 19 yards."

The Broncos tried to move the ball down the field in the Super Bowl, but they failed at doing so (by throwing an interception, taking a sack) or couldn't get the ball down the field for fear of committing a turnover. A smart quarterback isn't going to force the ball downfield if he doesn't have a man open or there is the risk of a turnover.

Rinse and repeat at Seattle: Lots of super-short passes and nothing deep in the first half. Even as the Broncos were reaching panic time in the fourth quarter, they kept throwing hitches for no gain.

Again, Seattle was taking away deep passes and forcing the Broncos throw underneath where the defense could make tackles. Can't throw the ball deep if there isn't a guy open to catch the ball.

Gregg is echoing the constant complaint of fans that teams don't "go deep," but it's not easily done. NFL players are very fast and against a great defense like that of the Seahawks "going deep" to a guy who isn't open can result in a turnover.

For a guy who runs a pass-wacky, high-tech offense, Denver coach John Fox sure is conservative. Taking possession down 17-3 with 12 seconds remaining in the first half and all three timeouts, Fox had his charges kneel. Why not try one long pass and then, if it works, call time?

John Fox has been a head coach in the NFL since 2002. He runs the type of offense that works best for his personnel and with Peyton Manning as the quarterback the current offense works. Anyone who has watched Fox coach any amount of games know he is a very conservative coach. It almost goes without saying at this point. Fox had Manning kneel in the 2013 playoff game against the Ravens and go to overtime instead of trying to drive down the field and get in field goal range. He's conservative, no need to marvel at it.

As the for Bluish Men Group, their leader, Russell Wilson, is now 8-0 in starts against Super Bowl-winning quarterbacks -- Tom Brady, Drew Brees, the Manning brothers and Aaron Rodgers. Of course, football is a team game, so this stat mainly tells us the Seahawks are really good.

Which is a point that Gregg failed to mention in last week's TMQ when he stated Russell Wilson was 7-0 against Super Bowl winning quarterbacks. But this week it's "of course" football is a team game. Yes, of course it is. It wasn't as much last week, but this week the fact football is a team game is obvious.

But if individual statistics did not matter, no one would care who the league's leading rusher is.

Individual statistics do matter when being compared to other individual statistics. When an individual statistic is used in the context of a team statistic then it can be a bit more problematic. It's just like the "win" statistic in baseball. There is more than just that individual player's performance represented in the data.

Stat Of The Week No. 5: The Cardinals, who blocked a field goal at a key juncture versus Santa Clara, have blocked 17 field goals since 2008, most in the league in that span.

In totally related news, the Cardinals drafted Calais Campbell in 2008. You know, the 6'8" defensive end who blocks field goals.

Stat Of The Week No. 6: The Bengals are on an 11-0 regular season home streak and an 0-3 postseason home streak.

This statistic is very misleading and pointless. The 11-0 regular season home streak doesn't encompass as much time as the 0-3 postseason home streak. So if Gregg really wanted this statisic to not be misleading then he would use the same time frame for the regular season home streak and postseason home streak. But that would also involve him not misleading his readers and throwing flashy numbers up like an 11-0 record at home.

Your columnist loves the tactic of bringing in a guy who never gets the ball and sending him deep. Leading Minnesota 7-0, the Saints faced second-and-5 on the Vikes' 34. Backup tight end Josh Hill, with seven receptions in two seasons, lined up right. Drew Brees looked left, looked left, pumped left -- and then threw deep right to Hill, who ran uncovered for the touchdown. Sweet.

I'm not even sure that's a tactic. I think it just so happened the route called for Hill to go deep and he ended up getting open.

Against Tennessee, Dalton caught an 18-yard touchdown pass from wide receiver Mohamed Sanu on a gunslinger. The play was sour for the Flaming Thumbtacks, whose cornerback, Blidi Wreh-Wilson, had what appeared to be an easy tackle on Dalton as the pass was caught and bounced off him. Normally, defenders crave the moment when a quarterback is a runner or receiver because taking a shot is legal. Instead, Wreh-Wilson appeared to pull up.

Wreh-Wilson didn't pull up and he didn't bounce off Andy Dalton. He went up for the interception and failed to catch the ball. If he had caught the ball, it would have been a pick-six, which Gregg believes is a play that is the most game-changing turnover. So Wreh-Wilson went for the big play and failed. That's it. He didn't miss the tackle really.

With Green Bay at Detroit tied at seven in the second quarter, the hosts faced third-and-long at midfield. Matt Stafford's deep pass was intercepted by the Packers' Davon House, who tumbled into the end zone for a touchback. Sweet!

No, wait. Sour for Green Bay because on replay the spot was reversed, and House was ruled down at the Packers' 1. That made the result of the play the same as a perfect coffin-corner punt. On the next Green Bay snap, Detroit's DeAndre Levy shot a gap unblocked and dropped Packers' running back Eddie Lacy three yards deep in the end zone for a safety. Green Bay free kicked, and the Detroit possession ended with a field goal. The Packers' interception turned into five points for Detroit. Green Bay would have been better off had House simply swatted the ball down for an incompletion.

Using hindsight this is true. John F. Kennedy would have been better off if he had not gone to Dallas on November 22, 1963, but he didn't know that at the time. Just like Davon House didn't know that he was down at the 1-yard line and on the next play the Packers would give up a safety. Though he can intercept passes, he is not able to predict the future as Gregg believes he can do. So yes, House would have swatted the pass down if he were omnisicient. He is not though.

Now Gregg takes on the tyranny of unrealistic fictional television shows.

Okay, it's television. But what's disturbing about Chicago P.D. is audiences are manipulated to think torture is a regrettable necessity for protecting the public. Three times in the first season, the antihero tortures suspects -- a severe beating and threats to cut off an ear and shove a hand down a running garbage disposal. Each time, torture immediately results in information that saves innocent lives. Each time, viewers know, from prior scenes, the antihero caught the right man. That manipulates the viewer into thinking, "He deserves whatever he gets."

Yeah, but he's the anti-hero so he tortures people to get information. That's why he isn't a hero, because he uses methods that other police officers would (hopefully) not lower themselves to in order to make an arrest. The viewer can make up his/her mind on whether the suspect got what he deserved or not. Not everyone is stupid, though I will admit those people who read and enjoy TMQ are probably the same ones gullible enough to be manipulated into taking a view on torture based on watching "Chicago P.D."

Some ethicists say there could be a ticking-bomb exception -- if the prisoner could reveal where a ticking bomb is, then torture becomes permissible. But how could a law enforcement officer be sure what a captive knows? And if by this logic torture is permissible, wouldn't that justify torture by, say, the Taliban if they captured a U.S. airman who could know the location of a planned drone strike?

In a way, but the perception is a prisoner has done something wrong to be a prisoner, so torturing him to find out where the bomb is would be hurting the guilty to save the innocent. The (American) perception is a U.S. airman hasn't done anything wrong and isn't guilty of a crime, so torturing him to know the location of the drone strike would be hurting an innocent person to save innocent/guilty people.

Down 17-0 in the third quarter at Jersey/A, Houston took a field goal on fourth-and-inches from the Giants' 9. Sure, a fourth down try by the Texans failed on the previous possession, but that was then, this is now! That a coin has come up tails 10 straight times tells nothing about what will happen on the 11th flip.

No, it doesn't. Of course a team going for it on fourth down isn't just a coin flip. If one team has failed 10 times to convert a fourth down then there is a good chance that team won't convert the 11th attempt. There are more factors in play on a fourth down than just the flip of a coin. A fourth down attempt involves 22 people in motion, not just a flip of the coin. So 10 failed attempts could indicate whether an 11th attempt would work or not.

Now it's 17-3. Facing third-and-2 on the Moo Cows' 44, the Giants throw incomplete and are called for offensive pass interference. Bill O'Brien declines the penalty, confident Tom Coughlin will punt on fourth-and-2 in Houston territory, which Coughlin proceeds to do.

And this told the Giants that Tom Coughlin wasn't serious about winning this game and the Giants went on to lose because Coughlin didn't go for it on fourth down? Oh, that's not how it worked out?

Baltimore tried on fourth-and-1 early in the fourth quarter at Cleveland and failed, but the Ravens went on to victory, which shows sometimes it's better to try and fail, which tells players their coach is challenging them to win, not launch a kick.

So in a game where both coaches are not going for it on fourth down, then both coaches being chickens offsets and failing to go for it on fourth down has no effect on the outcome of the game. In a game where one team goes for it on fourth down and the other does not, a tone is set, which means the coach is challenging his team to win. I think teams should be aggressive, but Gregg's insistence on tying fourth down tries to a coach challenging his team to win seems very anecdotal to me.

Then Gregg begins to speak about how the United States is in for tough times because of entitlements and government spending. He wrote a lot about this topic and it was all just an excuse to pimp out something else he had written.

Everything in this long item assumes longevity does not increase, so the retired don't demand benefits for a longer time. What if longevity increases? See my cover story in the new Atlantic Monthly.

Gregg wrote 1,500 words of non-football related material just so he could then push the cover story he wrote for the "Atlantic Monthly." Not only does TMQ have large sections that aren't about football, but it serves as a great forum for Gregg Easterbrook to advertise for his other writing endeavors. It makes you wonder where Gregg's focus lies.

Not That Politicians Have Any Shame: Last week, Minnesota Gov. Mark Dayton said he was "embarrassed" by the Vikings' handling of the Adrian Peterson mess. Why wasn't Gov. Dayton embarrassed by the fact that Minnesota and Minneapolis handed nearly $500 million of taxpayers' money to the Vikings' ownership family to build the new stadium from which those super-rich owners will keep nearly all the revenue?

This is sort of a strawman argument isn't it?

"Mark Dayton is 'embarrassed' by the Vikings' handling of the Adrian Peterson mess, then why isn't he embarrassed that millions of people are starving while Vikings fans gorge themselves on food in preparation for a recreational sporting event?"

"Mark Dayton is 'embarrassed' by the Vikings' handling of the Adrian Peterson mess, then why isn't he embarrassed that his last name is 'Dayton' and he doesn't live in Ohio?"

The Football Gods Chortled: Since fleeing the wonderfully romantic city of San Francisco for the office buildings and parking lots of Santa Clara, the 49ers are 1-2 and have scored just three points in the second half.

I don't know what Gregg has against the 49ers, but he seems to always have some curse or problem that he believes the team is encountering that is usually not football-related.

-There was the "Crabtree Curse" which basically said because Michael Crabtree held out for more money after being drafted, and the 49ers eventually paid him what he was supposed to earn at the slot he was drafted, that the rest of the 49ers team didn't like the team caved to Crabtree and so the team couldn't win games as a result. It was ridiculous. Then, in a miracle turn of events, the 49ers started winning games with Crabtree being their best receiver and Gregg turned this "Crabtree Curse" into a curse that only hit the 49ers when Mike Singletary was the head coach. Because when called on your bullshit, deflect quickly. If it was the "Singletary Curse" then why did the reason behind the curse have nothing to do with Mike Singletary and it was called the "Crabtree Curse"?

-Then last year, Gregg wrote off the 49ers and stated that the read-option was dead, never to return. It was a gimmick that NFL teams had figured out. In a shocking twist of events that wasn't shocking at all, Gregg forgot he had said this after the 49ers made their third straight NFC Championship Game.

-Now Gregg is trying to conjure up a curse where the 49ers are cursed because they moved from San Francisco to Santa Clara. Gregg will claim the team sold out to corporate interests and that's why they can't win games. Who knows what his excuse will be when the 49ers go on a run like they did last year?

Football And Taxes Note: Two weeks ago, TMQ excoriated the Hall of Fame for being tax-exempt yet extolling O.J. Simpson, who personifies violence against women. I said the Hall "sheltered $31 million" from taxation in the most recent year for which records are available. Several readers familiar with the nonprofit world, including Susan Denton of San Francisco, countered that I inaccurately characterized the Hall's balance sheet -- had it been a for-profit in the most recent year, it would have been taxed on about $1.4 million. So my number was wrong -- I should have said the Hall of Fame sheltered $1.4 million.

Hey, Gregg was only off by $30 million. It was just an accounting error that caused Gregg to be off by 2,100%. But hey, his point remains you know!

The point remains the same: Why should taxpayers subsidize a professional sports exhibit of any kind, much less one that adulates someone like Simpson? Corporate taxes on $1.4 million would be about $475,000 -- not huge in the scheme of things, but many dozens of average families must be taxed to cover that sum.

Yes, the point remains the same. The point also goes to show how Gregg will intentionally mislead his readers or won't do enough research so that he doesn't knowingly hand out incorrect information. It's clear already that Gregg doesn't read the links he links in TMQ and so I would imagine he also doesn't do a ton of research on the information he provides. He can't be lying if he doesn't do enough research to know the truth, can he?

Versus City of Tampa, Devin Hester not only set the all-time record for return touchdowns but also played well at wide receiver. Hester had a catch for 25 yards and during a turnover, stripped the ball from a Bucs player and fell on the rock and cradled it, which is proper form. TMQ's NFC preview expressed dismay at Chicago's lack of interest in retaining Hester: "The Falcons benefit from the Bears' puzzling decision to show the door to Devin Hester ... the Windy City is known for its sports curses -- soon the Devin Hester Curse might be added."

And that explains why the Bears are 2-1. What a curse!

If the Falcons make the playoffs this year and the Bears do not, the Devin Hester Curse will join the Shoeless Joe curse and the billy goat curse in Chicago lore.

No Gregg, it won't. The Devin Hester curse isn't real and wouldn't be made real due to one season where his new team makes the playoffs and his old team does not make the playoffs.

A huge embarrassment awaits Chicago management if Hester plays well when the Bears and Falcons meet on Oct. 12.

Not really a huge embarrassment. Difficult personnel decisions are made in the NFL all the time. At some point every NFL team will have to face a player they released or traded. It's the state of the NFL with a salary cap.

On the City of Tampa side, the first two Atlanta touchdowns went to receivers who were not covered by anyone at all -- what a smooth move by the Buccaneers' new management to waive Darrelle Revis in the offseason!

How silly of the Buccaneers to choose to free up $16 million in salary cap space. Why in the hell would they do that? It's just another example of the Buccaneers new staff blaming the previous regime and not at all an example of them correcting mistakes made by the previous regime. If something isn't working, keep trying to make it work.

City of Tampa's patchwork offensive line surrendered three sacks to the Falcons, who came in as the only NFL club without a sack. Waiving left tackle Donald Penn in the offseason -- that was a smooth move, too!

Penn was going to make almost $7 million and he was overpaid. He was 31 and the Buccaneers signed Anthony Collins, who is 3 years younger and making almost a million less than Penn.

Last week the league fined Bruce Irvin of the Seahawks $8,268 for a late hit and Courtney Upshaw of the Ravens $16,537 for an illegal hit. Why wasn't Upshaw fined $16,537.95? The recent collective bargaining agreement spelled out fines with odd specificity, though the last digit was zero.

He wasn't fined $16,537.95 because that's not the amount he was fined. I know Gregg could give a shit about details, facts or anything else that involves minutia he finds to be below him, but he really needs to stop calling any number that doesn't end in "0" as "oddly specific."

Obscure College Score: Greensboro 37, La Grange 35. The Panthers joined The 500 Club by gaining 516 yards and losing. Located in La Grange, Georgia, La Grange College offers previews of previews.

It's not exactly a preview of previews. The day is called "Preview Day" and if Gregg would click on the link he provided he would see that the video simply tells prospective students who are invited to "Preview Day" what to expect. That's all. I hate it when Gregg does cutesy shit like this. He's about 10% as clever as he believes himself to be.

The video preview of "Preview Day" is sort of like Gregg writing a column on football and providing a preview of another column he will later link in that football column.

Next Week: The NFL hires Paul Tagliabue to conduct an independent investigation of its "independent" investigation.

Don't give Roger Goodell any ideas. 

12 comments TMQ: The Crabtree Curse Has Ended?

Gregg Easterbrook is like nearly every other sports columnist in the world. When he is correct about something, you never hear the end of it. When he is wrong about something, well, it simply just doesn't get mentioned again. This week Gregg sees the decline in the passing numbers and says his hypothesis the reason the numbers were so high is because defenses had not jelled together yet. We had some disagreement about that hypothesis here. He very well could be right about this or passing numbers could be declining as team's running games have had an opportunity to jell better. Gregg could be right.

"Could" doesn't matter though. Today, Gregg announces he was correct about the early season offensive explosion. He announces this with much pride. Unfortunately, Gregg doesn't seem to brag too much about the much-heralded "Crabtree Curse," which was preventing the 49ers from winning games over the past few years and he isn't explaining how this curse no longer affects the 49ers even though Michael Crabtree is still an important part of the team.

Quarterbacks across the NFL are tumbling back to Earth. Cancel that panic about runaway offenses. And let's have a quick round of applause for those who kept their heads while others were losing theirs.

No one was in a panic over the runaway offenses. At least no fan was in a panic. If there was a panic, it was mostly by the media in a desperate attempt to create a storyline for the 2011 NFL season.

THUNK! That is the sound of NFL quarterbacks tumbling back to earth.

How silly of Gregg to say this! If an NFL quarterback fell back to earth he wouldn’t make it past the stratosphere because upon his entrance to earth his body would burn. All that would fall from the sky is a burnt corpse, or possibly no corpse, and since most of the world is covered with water, the body would probably fall in the ocean…never to be seen again. So it is highly unlikely a quarterback could fall back to earth.

(That was my attempt to sound like Gregg does when he is criticizing science fiction television shows for not being realistic enough)

Two weeks into the regular season, five quarterbacks were on a pace to break Dan Marino's single-season passing yards mark. Today three are: Drew Brees, Aaron Rodgers and Brady. Don't hold your breath.

After tossing for 517 and then 423 yards in his first two outings, Tom Brady has thrown for 289 yards and 198 yards in his most recent two. Cam Newton threw for 422 and 432 yards in his first two, 256 and 290 yards in his most recent two. Tony Romo threw for 342 and 345 yards in his first two, 166 and 203 yards in his most recent two.

Philip Rivers threw for 369 yards this week. Ben Roethlisberger threw for 365 and 361 yards in his most recent two games. Passing numbers have declined, but quarterbacks are still throwing for large amounts of yardage.

Yea, verily, it's November, and passing norms are returning. My Week 2 column suggested that blown coverages caused by the lack of an offseason -- secondaries take time to jell -- were the primary reason for the initial high passing stats, and that coverages would improve by November.

It is also quite possible, and I know this is a shocking turn of events, the passing games returning to normal yardage amounts isn’t simply because of Gregg’s hypothesis. Gregg could very well be correct, but simply because the conclusion achieved is what was predicted, it doesn’t mean the reason given by Gregg for the conclusion being reached is correct. For example, perhaps the offensive line of teams had not had time to jell together enough to open up holes for the running game? Also, perhaps defenses have had more time to scout the passing game of teams and caught up to the schemes offenses were running, which helped prevent teams from passing the ball effectively. Gregg could very well be right about why the passing stats have come back down closer to the average, but just because the passing stats came back down doesn’t mean his hypothesis was necessarily correct.

My Week 2 column further forecast that "none of the quarterbacks now on a pace to break Marino's record will in fact break it." I am sticking to that call, too.

As usual, if Gregg is right we will hear all about it. If Gregg is wrong, then we won’t ever hear anything about this ever again.

In other football news, right now defensive coordinators all over the NFL are staring at film of how Pittsburgh shut down New England: see more below.

And every other NFL team will immediately be able to replicate the Steelers success in stopping the Patriots because they have the same defensive personnel and scheme the Steelers have. It's that simple. Consider your days of winning as over, New England Patriots.

And if "most valuable player" is the one whose loss would hurt a team most -- who, asks reader Justin Evilsizor of Philadelphia, could the 2011 MVP be other than Peyton Manning?

That’s a wonderful question, as long as you believe Justin’s definition of what the MVP means. Unfortunately, there doesn’t seem to be an official definition to go along with the award, so the MVP criteria could also be “which player is the most valuable to his team.” The MVP doesn’t just go to whichever player would hurt his team the most if he gets injured. Pretty much anyone could create a definition for MVP in order to achieve a desired outcome.

Stats of the Week No. 5: Against Washington, Buffalo's undrafted Fred Jackson of Division III Coe College gained 194 yards from scrimmage. The entire Redskins team gained 178 yards from scrimmage.

This means Fred Jackson, an undrafted unwanted unheralded unspiteful unbelievable unneeded free agent, is better than the entire Redskins team by himself. Look it up and book it. Fred Jackson is better than Brian Orakpo, a lazy, piece of shit 1^st round draft pick who hasn’t helped the Redskins win a single Super Bowl. You would think if he were a 1^st round draft pick he could turn the entire fortunes of the Redskins team around by himself, but he can’t because he is too lazy complaining and not working hard.

Sour Play of the Week: Trailing 17-3 in the third quarter, the Cleveland Browns faced third-and-2 on the 42 of the host Squared Sevens. This is a Maroon Zone situation, too far for a field goal, too close to punt -- surely the Browns' brain trust knows that if this snap fails, a fourth-down attempt will follow. Ball is hiked. It's -- huh -- what the -- it's -- lateraled to wide receiver Greg Little a full 10 yards behind the line of scrimmage. Loss of eight, followed by a punt, and TMQ wrote the words "game over" in his notebook.

Fortune favors the bold! You know, unless the bold action doesn’t work, in which case how fucking stupid was that attempt to be bold? Gregg’s response when asked the correct play to run in a certain situation would be to say do whichever play works. If the play doesn’t work then that play shouldn’t have been run.

Sweet 'N' Sour Special Teams of the Week: TMQ's immutable law holds: Rush eight if you want to block that punt…

St. Louis also recorded an important punt block against New Orleans. In that case it was a conventional five-man rush.

But I thought you could only block a punt if you rushed eight men? Also, I saw three games this weekend where a team rushed eight men at the punt and did not get it blocked. I guess an “immutable law” really is actually just a relatively helpful suggestion.

How did the Saints go from winning a game by 55 points one week to losing to a winless team the following week? In the second half of a blowout, coaches sometimes wince when their team scores. You'd rather save unneeded touchdowns until the next game,

Because as we all know, touchdowns carryover from one game to the next game (stabs self in the head with a pencil). Wouldn’t want to waste any of those touchdowns in one game that can be used in another game.

Sweet 'N' Sour Play of the Week: Philip Rivers fumbled the snap with San Diego on the Kansas City 15-yard line with a minute to go in regulation, the Bolts trying to kill the clock before what would have been the winning field goal. Sweet for the home crowd, sour for the visitors. Modern quarterbacks spend so much time in the shotgun they may be forgetting how to take the snap under center, as Rivers was on this play.

After Gregg sees a play happen on the football field does he immediately think, “What is the most ludicrous and far-fetched conclusion I can arrive at having seen what I just saw?”

From Philip Rivers fumbling a snap, Gregg has concluded modern quarterbacks are forgetting how to take a snap from under center. You know, because teams never practice things like taking a snap from under center anymore. So rather than jump to the conclusion this was an isolated incident, the fumbled snap has to be some part of a larger problem.

Reader Mike Kowalski of Baton Rouge, La., adds, "Newton's Second Law of Motion says momentum must be conserved. The defender who hit Cassel pushed the quarterback's arm backward, yet the ball traveled forward. This could happen only if the quarterback's hand had imparted forward momentum to the ball. Didn't the referees rule against Newton's Second Law of Motion?"

This is what happens when people trying to be intellectual talk about sports.

Also, the ball could theoretically go forward if the defender knocks the ball forward with his hand while hitting Cassel. I just hope no one yells at me for breaking Newton’s laws by bringing this up.

John Walker of Firestone, Colo., reports, "Rovio, the Finnish company behind Angry Birds, recently released an update. To access the Halloween level, you must select 'Seasons 2012' even though the product was released before Halloween 2011."

Let’s boycott Angry Birds! How dare a game not be realistic!

How Did Philadelphia Toy With the Cowboys Like That? The Eagles came into the contest 2-4, with high expectations. Had they lost, the roof would have fallen in. The Boys came in 3-3 with low expectations. Had they lost, this would have seemed the recent norm at One Legends Way -- the Cowboys' actual mailing address in Arlington, Texas. You may not need to know anything more about the game than the info in this paragraph.

Right, because the one thing we know for sure about the Cowboys is the low expectations ownership and the fans have for the team. Does anyone in Dallas care how the team does? Probably not.

Still, tactics played a role. Andy Reid is known for using the same game plan week after week, which is a reason the Eagles tend to wheeze out in the postseason, when film study intensifies.

I have never heard this criticism of Andy Reid. Someone fill me in if this is true. I really, really doubt Andy Reid uses the same game plan every single week.

But during bye weeks Reid always adds new wrinkles,

So Andy Reid always uses the same game plan from week to week…except when he doesn’t use the same game plan week after week.

Because stature and strength are required, it's hard to imagine women ever playing in the NFL, NBA or MLB -- though all would allow female participants in the unlikely event they could make the cut. But stature and strength are not required for coaching, officiating or training. There's no reason women should not attain an ever-larger presence in these fields.

Plus, very few men are going to college anymore because they are too busy playing football and getting concussions, which makes them too stupid or busy with football to go to college.

Already the sports-medicine majors at many universities have high female participation.

Naturally, with no men going to college anymore someone has to be a sports-medicine major.

Two passing plays to linemen by the same team in the same game. Two linemen each outgained San Francisco wide receiver Ted Ginn, a former high number-one draft choice.

Here is Gregg slipping in some criticism of high draft picks. Gregg will completely ignore that Staley is a first round draft choice and the guy throwing him the ball, Alex Smith, is a former #1 overall draft choice. And of course, this is the 8^th straight week Gregg doesn’t talk about the Crabtree Curse as being the reason the 49ers aren’t winning. This is because, even though Crabtree is still on the team, the 49ers are winning. Gregg realizes if he brings up the fact he has said repeatedly Crabtree is a selfish player whose mere presence on the roster hurts the team, it isn’t true and a reader might point this out. This would make it look like he isn't right all the time, which quite frankly he doesn't believe is possible.

Jackson arrived at Bills training camp from the Rhein Fire. Two years ago, he signed a four-year, $8 million deal, which at the time was generous. Jackson has dramatically "outperformed his contract," but that agreement lasts through the 2012 season, after which he will be 32 years old and be lucky to command the veteran minimum on the free-agent market.

Invisible-hand logic would say to use Jackson up and throw him away. Why pay more to a guy who's bound by a contract he cannot break? But chemistry matters in football, as does appeasement of the football gods. If the Bills want their feel-good season to continue, they need to offer Jackson some improvement to his deal.

So knowing Jackson won't have high market value in two years, the Bills should give him a large contract extension? Nothing says “let’s improve team chemistry” like giving a contract extension to a player who will likely underperform that contract in the future. Hey, maybe Jackson won’t underperform the contract, but handing out potentially regrettable contracts doesn’t necessarily appease the fictional football gods.

Readers including Naomi Parker of Fort Lauderdale, Fla., noted the new Harold and Kumar movie, "A Very Harold and Kumar Christmas," opens on Nov. 4. This makes it all but certain that a Christmas movie will close before Christmas. The question: Will this Christmas movie close before Thanksgiving?

Why would a movie studio release a movie when it doesn’t coincide with the actual holiday in the movie’s title? Isn’t the purpose of a movie to be factually accurate and not worry about making money? What’s worse is a few years ago the movie “Leap Year” came out AND IT WASN’T EVEN A LEAP YEAR!

TMQ's rule of comebacks is: Defense starts them, offense ends them.

I always enjoy it when Gregg makes up a rule he finds to be incredibly insightful when it really isn’t so. For example, the rule Gregg just created here says defenses start comebacks and offenses end them. This is about as obvious statement as can be made coated in a saying that is supposed to be insightful. Yes, of course a team has to play good defense to stop the other team from scoring before they can comeback. It’s hard to come back if the other team continues scoring. The offense ends the comeback because a team has to score more points in order to outscore the other team. This statement is just so painfully obvious. The defense has to stop the other team to stop the comeback and the offense has to score more points to complete the comeback.

Kolb continues to be a favorite of the Hell's sports bar crowd. In the last five years he is 4-10 as a starter with more interceptions (22) than touchdown passes (19), yet was recently the subject of a major trade, receiving a huge signing bonus in the process.

For the second straight week, Kolb got the huge signing bonus and was part of a “major” trade before he accumulated much of those statistics. Kolb has been terrible, but he has been mostly terrible after the trade.

Then Gregg begins to compliment the University of Houston offense, which is interesting because that university is where Kevin Kolb played college football. I don't know if you heard, but Kolb sucks and was recently a part of a major trade and was given a megabucks contract. I wonder if Gregg knows Kolb had very prolific college statistics at Houston just like Case Keenum does?

Keenum has 32 touchdown passes versus three interceptions, which is spectacular. He averages 10.6 yards per attempt, also spectacular. If Keenum's stats were fed into the NFL quarterback formula, he would rate as 137. The highest-rated NFL passer is Aaron Rodgers at 126.

If only Gregg could understand the difference in the NFL and college football when it comes to passing the football.

From the talent standpoint, the recent trend in college football is to put the best athletes on offense to please the boosters.

Here is another example of Gregg being somewhat correct about something, but he is wrong about the reason he is correct. Many of the best athletes aren’t on offense to please boosters, but instead to score touchdowns and take advantage of the best athletes’ skill set.

Purists like defensive struggles, spectators like shootouts. The result is loads of yards and points, though not necessarily a ranked outcome. Baylor is averaging 41 points a game, but is 4-3. Texas A&M, once the embodiment of the traditionalist formula of clock control and power defense, gained 471 yards on offense and lost to Oklahoma State, then gained 500 yards on offense and lost to Missouri.

I won’t say this reason explains the high scoring and poor defense for some teams, but many teams are scoring very quickly, so their defense doesn’t have a lot of time to rest. Sometimes I wonder how much that has to do with a team giving up a lot of points. Another hypothesis is the offense scores quickly and so the opposing offense gets more possessions and therefore more chances to score.

Bear in mind that when critics say there should be free-market bidding for NCAA Division I football and men's basketball players, what they propose would lead to a Marbury-style winner-take-all. College stars (the ones who eventually will get rich anyway) would enjoy their riches sooner, while most players would get nothing -- no pay, no scholarship. Last year, if there were free-market bidding in college sports, Cam Newton surely would have to be worth $5 million to Auburn.

I don’t know if people are proposing there be free-market bidding for Division I for football and men’s basketball players or not. I always thought the idea was to pay these athletes a stipend to cover their expenses and compensate them for the income they bring into the school. I didn’t think it was like a free-market bidding on these players, sort of like free agency in professional sports. I have never heard the idea of paying players based on the free-market price they could receive from various schools.

In Dick LeBeau choreography, the desired outcome is one rusher coming through unblocked.

In every defensive coordinator’s choreography, the desired outcome is for one rusher to come through unblocked. Every single defensive coordinator wants this.

With Brady's career winding down, if New England falters in 2011, Belichick's squirreling away draft choices will become much-discussed. Last spring, Belichick banked three extra high selections for 2012, including an extra No. 1. Boston sports nuts may end up wishing those selections had been spent on a last title push while Brady was still capable.

So does Gregg Easterbrook not expect Tom Brady to be capable of winning a Super Bowl next year? The Patriots have three high selections in next year’s draft and probably have 2-3 good years, minimum, left out of Tom Brady. So these draft choices could help them win a Super Bowl while Brady is still “capable.”

Here are Chad Ford's draft grades. He gave out 22 A's or B's and nothing below a C. That is, 73 percent of NBA drafts were above average while no one was below average.

I think this is because these experts who grade these drafts are afraid of being wrong or saying something that is proven incorrect. It sounds better to say, “I thought Player X was going to be a really good player,” when he isn't very good, as compared to missing completely on Player X when he turns out to be a very great player. This is because if a person misses completely on a player who turns out to be great it looks like he didn’t do his homework in scouting the player. Therefore most of the draft grades turn out positive to hedge against not predicting a player would be great in the NBA. It’s easier to explain why Michael Beasley doesn’t have the work ethic to make it in the NBA than to explain you watched Gilbert Arenas all through college and didn’t think he would be a good NBA player.

On the next Miami possession, leading 14-3, Davone Bess was open deep for what might have been a long touchdown reception; emerging Jersey/A star corner Corey Webster barely tipped the ball away. Miami seemed about to take over.

Then Sparano apparently got word from the press box that Andrew Luck and Landry Jones will be available in next spring's draft. Again the Dolphins collapsed on cue.

Why would a head coach, who Gregg admits is a lame duck, intentionally have his team lose to get a quarterback that head coach may never even be around to see?

Kickoff temperature 45 degrees, Giants offensive coordinator Kevin Gilbride wore a heavy parka with a ski cap.

Gilbride overdressed for the game! Doesn’t that mean, according to Gregg’s rule that whichever team’s coach overdresses for a game is the team that loses the game. Therefore the Giants should have lost the game. Or are Gregg’s fake rules only applied when they are proven correct?

Next Week: Rocky the dog joins the Rachael Ray cast.

Every week now Gregg talks about dog food in TMQ and how some owners feed their dogs gourmet or upscale dog food. It’s actually a lot less interesting than it sounds.