Showing posts with label steve dilbeck. Show all posts
Showing posts with label steve dilbeck. Show all posts

Monday, April 13, 2015

2 comments Ten Things I Think I Think Peter King Has Not Thought Of: David Steele Uses Quotes from Five Years Ago to Advocate for Tim Tebow Edition

I have a huge backlog of links that don't deserve a full post but should be mentioned on this blog in some form. So I thought I would clear them out and share little tidbits of bad sports journalism (or "nuggets" of bad journalism as Peter King would say). As always, the topic of these links bounce around all over the place. It's a real problem when an article doesn't merit a full post here and I will try to rectify that situation.

1. Let's start first with the ex-NFL quarterback who won't go away. That's Tim Tebow. David Steele lets his readers in on a secret. Those people who have coached and worked with Tim Tebow still think he can be an NFL quarterback. No way! And by the way, David takes testimonials from five years go to prove that Tebow can still play in the NFL. Doesn't that seem a bit ridiculous to try and prove Tebow can still be an NFL quarterback in 2015 by using a quote from 2010, prior to the time Tebow confirmed that he indeed is not an NFL quarterback?

Tim Tebow got another look from the NFL Monday, according to ESPN’s Adam Schefter, and he arrived to his tryout with the Eagles off of workouts with Tom House, the longtime major-league pitching coach who has worked on mechanics with Tom Brady and Drew Brees, among others.

Tom House made Drew Brees and Tom Brady into the quarterbacks they are today, so he can do the same for Tim Tebow. Obviously, the indication David Steele is giving here is really true. 

House, who had worked with the ex-Bronco and Jet before, was complimentary of Tebow, who hasn’t played a regular-season game since 2012 and was last on a roster in 2013 Patriots training camp. “He went from being a little inaccurate and didn’t throw a whole lot of spirals, to throwing very accurate and real good at spinning the ball,” House told the Boston Globe last week.

With all due respect to House and his track record, this all sounds familiar.

Coaches that Tebow has worked with or paid to have work with him think he'll be a good NFL quarterback? I don't believe it. It's not like these coaches have a vested financial interest in reinforcing their ability to turn college quarterbacks into good NFL quarterbacks or anything. No coach would say something in order to increase the perception he is good at his job.

House is the latest in a line of personal coaches Tebow has enlisted to work on his quarterback shortcomings, dating back to his days preparing to enter the NFL out of Florida in 2010.

People Tebow has paid to work with him and improve his ability think they did a good job in improving Tebow's ability. I'm not sure this should be news.

Nevertheless, here’s the list of Tebow tutors and their testimonials.

— “If this guy can’t be a starting quarterback in the NFL, then I was in the wrong profession for a lot of years.” — former NFL head coach Sam Wyche, who worked with Tebow before the draft, February 2010.

Considering Sam Wyche stated this prior to Tebow being drafted and failing out of the NFL, my only takeaway from this is that Sam Wyche was in the wrong profession for a lot of years.

Does David Steele realize using testimonials from BEFORE Tebow was drafted and failed in the NFL serves to only undermine the point he wants to prove that Tebow can play in the NFL? See Wyche made this statement in 2010 and then this statement was proven to be incorrect after that. So, that seems to run counter to the idea Tebow can play the quarterback position well in the NFL.

— “I don't know that I’m the only one who has the sense of Tim’s ability to be developed and become a very good player in the league. I believe in the right environment Tim Tebow will figure this out. He doesn't have explosive arm strength, but he has more than adequate arm strength to throw the ball in the NFL and make all the throws.’’ — then-CFL head coach Marc Trestman, who trained Tebow before the Senior Bowl, April 2010

This quote is from 2010, which is prior to the time Tebow washed out of the league. And again, this is a person with a vested interest in making it seem like Tebow can play in the NFL. Trestman wanted to make it seem like he can improve a quarterback's ability through training that quarterback.

— “I would hope wherever he ends up, they give him an opportunity to play, because if they do, they'll be pleasantly surprised. I think the guy can still play.” — quarterback consultant Steve Clarkson, April 2013

He can "still play"? Why use the word "still" there as if Tebow ever did play well in the past?

Also, Tebow got a shot with the Patriots in 2013, but I'm sure Bill Belichick just doesn't have the right eye for the talent that Tebow showed in training camp. Belichick is well-known for having a poor eye for talent at the quarterback position.

— “Do I think he can play the quarterback position in the NFL? Yeah, no question. Like I told Tim when I found out … that he signed, ‘You're locked and loaded, ready to go.’” — former Heisman Trophy winner and NFL quarterback Chris Weinke, June 2013

Except the Patriots didn't keep Tebow around. Notice how none of these quotes are from 2014 or 2015? There is a reason for that.

— “In shorts, out there on the football field, he changed his motion and he’s very smooth. I’ve got it on film, and film doesn’t lie. What he does when he goes out in a game situation and live bullets, I’m not sure what will happen. I just know he’s a great guy, a hard worker, and this off-season his throwing motion became 100 times better.” — quarterback trainer Dennis Gile, who worked with partner Mike Giovando on Tebow, June 2013

And that's it. Another quarterback trainer swearing that Tim Tebow is an NFL quarterback. This quote is from a relatively recent two years ago. I'm not sure the point David Steele wanted to prove, unless his point was, "Hey 2-5 years ago people who have a vested interest in Tim Tebow succeeding stated he could succeed. That has to mean something as long as you ignore their vested interest and the fact years have gone by where their statements have been proven to be incorrect, right?"

2. Joel Sherman thinks the Yankees dodged a huge bullet by not signing Cliff Lee as a free agent in 2010. Because sure, Lee was great during 2011-2014, but he's injured now. Clearly, Cliff Lee could not have helped the Yankees win any games during that stretch of time from 2011-2014.

The current rotation concerns of the Yankees and Rangers could be worse — Cliff Lee could have accepted one of the two highest total bids in December 2010.

Lee turned down the Yankees’ seven-year, $150 million offer and the six year, $138 million bid of the Rangers — the teams viewed as the strong front-runners — to sign a five-year, $120 million pact with the Phillies.

Cliff Lee's performance from 2011-2014. I'll let you decide if this would have been helpful for the Yankees to have as a part of their starting pitching staff.

2011: 32 starts 17-8 with a 2.40 ERA and 1.027 WHIP
2012: 30 starts 6-9 with a 3.16 ERA and 1.114 WHIP
2013: 31 starts 14-8 with a 2.87 ERA and 1.010 WHIP
2014: 13 starts 4-5 with a 3.66 ERA and 1.377 WHIP

Now, after missing the final two months last year, Lee has received two diagnosis the tear in the region needs surgery. That would end his 2015 season and, since this is the final year guaranteed on his contract, Lee has suggested he might retire if he needs the procedure.

Cliff Lee performed at a high level for three of the five years on his contract during a time when the Yankees certainly could have used another starter during the 2011 and 2012 playoffs, especially since they lost the ALDS 3-2 to the Tigers in 2011.

The Rangers, already with a thin rotation, are likely to lose ace Yu Darvish for the season if he opts for Tommy John surgery. The Yankees’ rotation is shaky in part due to the uncertainty of CC Sabathia. There is, in fact, strong parallels to Lee and Sabathia — both won Cy Youngs for the Indians (Sabathia in 2007, Lee in 2008) and both were extreme lefty workhorses with Sabathia leading the majors in innings from 2005-13 (1,999 ¹/₃ innings) and Lee fifth (1,833 ²/₃), which probably explains why they have broken down.

OR Cliff Lee broke down because he's 36 years old and older pitchers tend to break down more. The fact Lee broke down for 1.5 years of his 5 year contract doesn't mean the Yankees couldn't have used him during the 3.5 years when he was pitching at a high level.

Sabathia tried hard to recruit Lee to the Yankees in the winter of 2010. Maybe the Yankees would have won championships with Sabathia and Lee together or Lee would not have broken down as a Yankee. But in 2015, it sure looks fortunate Sabathia’s recruitment didn’t succeed.

But from 2011-2014, it sure looks like pure stupidity to think the Yankees couldn't have used Lee. Why would Joel Sherman think at all about Lee's past performance though? After all, it's not like the Yankees have ever signed an expensive free agent only to have him get injured.

3. Rick Telander furthers a narrative he wants to further by claiming the guy who worked with Bill James while employed by the Red Sox eschews Sabermetrics.

In 2002, at age 28, Epstein became the Red Sox’ general manager, the youngest in major-league history. He would win two World Series titles in the next five years, ending an 86-year championship drought for the Red Sox.
Here’s the relevance of  this to Theo’s current job as president of the Cubs: Sabermetrics and those algorithms he and his crew punched into computers, which then spat out genius statistical info . . . that stuff is dead as prairie chickens.

Epstein has learned the error of his ways. Sure, his use of Sabermetrics helped to win the Red Sox two World Series titles, but it's all about the humanity for Epstein now.

Well, moneyball is not actually dead — it’s just no more special than a pile of dead chickens.

‘‘Fifteen years ago there weren’t that many teams specializing in the statistical model to succeed,’’ he says. ‘‘You could really get an advantage using it. In the offseason of 2002, into 2003, the Red Sox needed to improve our offense, and we needed to get on base more. So we could sign Davey Ortiz to a one-year deal, Bill Mueller to a two-year deal, and also sign Kevin Millar, whom no one wanted and was going to Japan, based largely on the numbers, on the things you could learn from the statistical analysis.  Now the world is so flat — everyone’s doing that!’’

Oh, that makes sense. Moneyball isn't dead, it's just being so used in such a wide and prevalent manner by every MLB team that it's now become a part of the evaluation process for a team's front office. So by saying Moneyball is dead, what Rick Telander really means is that Moneyball is more alive than it ever has been.

So what does a smart man do to once again move beyond the herd? He goes new age. He looks at the game he loves and sees that a really big part of it has been taken over by the numerical lists he helped make so popular, yet an equally large part of it has seemingly been ignored—the emotional, human part. How’s that for irony, moneyballers?

You certainly told them, Rick. Feel good about yourself and pat yourself on the back---oh, you are already patting yourself on the back. Just carry on then.

‘‘I think the real competitive advantage now is in player development—understanding that your young players are human beings,’’ says Epstein, whose sky-blue shirt and sky-blue cap made this reporter mistake the now-41-year-old at first for a beer salesman. ‘‘Understanding them physically, fundamentally, and mentally — investing in them as people — and helping them progress. And there’s no stat for that.’’

For example, as human beings Kris Bryant and Anthony Rizzo are really fucking good at baseball. There is a statistic to show this as true.

He finds it embarrassing that he and so many of the front-office people don’t speak Spanish, so a Spanish tutor is coming in two mornings a week to teach it to the brass.

WHERE'S THE STATISTIC SHOWING TO LEARN TO SPEAK SPANISH, MONEYBALLERS? THERE IS NO STATISTIC THAT TEACHES SPANISH. YOUR COMPUTERS ARE USELESS NOW AREN'T THEY? 

‘‘I don’t think everything in baseball — or life — is quantifiable,’’ he says. ‘‘Sure, if you ignore the stats, if you ignore empiricism, if you ignore objective evidence, then you’re a fool.

Rick Telander conveniently ignores this quote when talking about how Theo Epstein has made a change in how he evaluates players. Epstein calls people "fools" for ignoring statistics and other information used by Sabermetricians to evaluate players, but it doesn't fit the narrative so it's useless to Rick.

But if you invest in stats so fully that you’re blind to the fact the game is played by human beings, then you’re just as much of a fool.’’

Amen.

So Theo Epstein evaluates players using a mix of Sabermetrics and scouting by watching the players play? You know, like every other MLB team does. Rick worked hard to paint this as an anti-stats statement by Theo Epstein. The narrative takes precedence over reality.

4. Now Rick Telander gets increasingly depressed about the hiring of John Fox.

On January 10, 2015 when Ryan Pace was hired, Rick was pretty optimistic.

But if you count teams that simply made it to the Super Bowl, the field opens up. Indeed, in the last 16 years, seven other teams have gotten to the Super Bowl and lost. They are the 49ers, Cardinals, Eagles, Panthers, Titans and Falcons. And, almost forgot, the Bears. That makes 18 teams that have played in the Super Bowl since 1999.
 
So is it wrong to ask, Why not us?

The point being: Why not the Bears? Why not soon? Like 2015?

But who cares about the Cardinals? The Bears went 5-11 this season. Can they return to title quality in one year, as chairman George McCaskey said they should? Yes. And, they should.

It can be done.

So what if you’ve got Jay Cutler at quarterback? You win with him, not because of him. Or you dump him and get a young Russell Wilson or a cagey Joe Theismann or Phil Simms or Jeff Hostetler or Brad Johnson.

IT CAN BE DONE! THIS BEARS TEAM CAN TURN IT AROUND IN ONE YEAR! RICK BELIEVES!

Then on January 17, 2015 after the Bears hired John Fox, Rick became a little more pessimistic about the Bears chances of turning it around.

I’ll join the masses and say that the Bears’ hiring of John Fox was a nice thing.
But am I blown away?
 
Not really.

A football team is so much more than its coach, and sometimes folks don’t want to admit this. Mike Ditka has always said that if you don’t have the player talent, you can’t win.

Oh no, now the same players the Bears had a week earlier that could turn it around can't turn it around anymore.

You go, John Fox! But the ferret in that box over there is named Jay Cutler, and he’s yours. Hope you’ve got gloves and a plan.

Oh boy, looks like the Bears may want to get a Russell Wilson (you know, that type of quarterback like Wilson that's just hanging around on a street corner waiting to be signed) or a cagey Joe Theismann type. Rick's depression has begun.

Then two days later on January 19, 2015 Rick hits rock bottom about the John Fox hiring.

John Fox walks and talks like a coach, and, of course, he was one, and he is one again. Your brand new Bears leader, folks, hot off the rails from Denver, where he was the Broncos’ coach as recently as seven days ago — John (no middle name) Fox!
 
Thirteen years of NFL head-coaching success for the man who will turn 60 next month. Hoo-rah.

What happened to signing cagey quarterbacks and winning with the players the Bears have, because IT CAN BE DONE? Where did the happiness go?

Risking such, I just want to say that maybe Fox isn’t perfect. Maybe, that’s all. Nor can I think of anyone better at the moment to take the spot of Marc Trestman, who leaves after a 5-11 season.

It's all over now, baby blue. Cue the Morrissey (not Rick) and start to anticipate the downward spiral from the eternal happiness that Rick felt just nine days earlier.

So let’s get away from groupthink for a moment — that is, Bears fans’ and management’s certitude du jour that a veteran coach who has been to two Super Bowls, winning neither, is a stroke of pure genius. (May I remind you that Lovie Smith, who took the Bears to a Super Bowl and had a final season of 10-6, was run out of town so that the professorial Trestman could go 13-19 in two seasons.)

It is possible, you know — and don’t stone me for simply mentioning it — that Fox is here to chill and run out the skein on a nice, if unspectacular, career. Five more years, and he’s got Medicare, baby!

It says he’s a fairly mellow, bland guy who will bore you to death at news conferences and show that much pizzazz on the field. He’s good at defense, and he’s known as a players’ coach. But he has never made it all the way to the top.

‘‘He drove Elway crazy because he didn’t hold himself, the players or coaches accountable after losses.  He’ll be an improvement in Chicago, but he won’t win a Super Bowl.’’
 
No, this isn’t gospel. Nor am I a prophet. Nor is Shapiro.
 
Just trying to tell it like it might be.

Nine days earlier the future was so bright for the Bears. Then the Bears hired a head coach that Rick Telander admits was probably the best person for the vacant head coaching position and the future suddenly turned cloudy. Weird how that happened when nothing else changed, isn't it?

5. To add to Rick Telander's dismay, he doesn't know what's happened to Bruce Jenner. More importantly, how does Bruce Jenner's gender change impact Rick Telander?

Bruce Jenner and I are the same age — or we will be on Oct. 28, when he turns 66, like yours truly — and I guess that’s as far as the similarities go.
I used to think we had things in common.

Rick Telander does not want breasts. Let's get this out of the way at the very beginning.

I used to idolize Jenner, such as idolization flows from a guy in his mid-20s who follows a white, similar-sized (6-1, 195 pounds — though far more muscular), similar-aged, Midwestern college-educated, long-locked, striving athlete who soon would be an Olympic gold-medal winner in the brutal decathlon and, thus, the ‘‘world’s greatest athlete.’’

I can deal with a lot of things in life. But Jenner, who is, if we believe reports — and our eyes — transitioning to become a woman, throws me for a loop. I’m sorry, it just does. I am who I am. I apologize if I have offended anyone.

Well Rick, Jenner's transition to a woman is mostly about you and how you handle his transition. After all, prior to transitioning Jenner should have at least consulted you on how your memories of him as a decathlete would be impacted by his transition.

If Jenner knows he is a woman long trapped in an incredibly masculine body, then so be it. The extreme plastic surgery, the Adam’s apple apparently shaved, the ponytail, the breasts supported by a sports bra, the nail polish — no man would do that for kicks.

Except for Jay Cutler. He just wants to watch the world burn.

Jenner was featured on the front of a Wheaties box, for God’s sake, the signature placement for the greatest American heroes. But I’ll ask you: Does anybody eat Wheaties anymore? Does anybody notice what’s on the cover of what they eat?

No Rick, nobody eats Wheaties anymore. You know why? Because Bruce Jenner has affected your memories of the past. Much like you, no one else can eat a bowl of cereal without searching inside themselves while eating that cereal wondering, "How can I eat this delicious goodness knowing 40 years ago a man appeared on the front of the box and that man is now a woman? Can women even eat Wheaties? If so, SHOULD women be allowed to eat Wheaties?"

In 1976, Jenner’s gold medal reaffirmed Americans’ belief in our ability to counter communist determinism with democratic freedom. That’s what I felt; that’s what I believed.

Now that Jenner is transitioning to a woman, communism has won. Mr. Putin, build that wall back up. Bruce Jenner is looking for high heels and communism is in style again.

Jenner was somebody I could look up to, a role model so close to me in so many ways, I felt, that he became almost a fantasy. He didn’t just beat a foe, like a heavyweight boxer. He beat the best in the world all at once.

I had the Sports Illustrated cover of him with his jacked arms raised, his fists clenched, his eyes closed in ecstasy, pinned on my wall. The headline read, ‘‘AWRRIGHT!’’

Now when he looks at the headline all Rick reads is "AWASALEONPURSES!"

I’ve seen Chaz Bono.

Rick has one gay friend and one black friend. He counts them. This makes him a non-racist and definitely not a bigot.

But I’m writing this from my perspective, my world. It’s all I know.
 
And I’m dizzy. I’m almost lost.

Bruce Jenner definitely should have thought about Rick Telander's nostalgia and the fate of Wheaties cereal before taking steps to make himself happier.

6. Phil Mushnick warns his readers about "dangerous" basketball. Yep, you guessed it. Much like how Florida Gulf Coast won games by dunking, Phil doesn't like it when amateur athletes dunk. It sends a bad message to the kids.

“Would I have yanked one of my kids for doing that? In a heartbeat.”
Jack Alesi, 62, reckons he has been coaching basketball “since I was 18,” the last 30 years at Brooklyn’s Xaverian High School, the last 20 of those as head varsity boys coach. Friday night, Xaverian plays Christ The King in the Diocesan final.

Alesi is talking about this dunk:




“I’m not one to stifle creativity,” Alesi said Wednesday.

Just don't do any creative or fancy dunks. That's not stifling creativity, it's only standing up for what's right and good about sports. Sports are NOT entertainment.

“If a kid finds it easier to dunk the ball than lay it in, fine by me. Bob Cousy dribbled between his legs to the benefit of his teams. There’s a difference between creative and plain stupid. TV can’t seem to distinguish between the two. It doesn’t even try.

“I wouldn’t try to embarrass that LSU kid, but if ever there was a teaching moment, that was it. Take him out, explain it, put him back in.”

"I'm old and have some weird thing about how you shouldn't use your athleticism to put on a show for those who pay to watch you play basketball. Don't make me uncomfortable by dunking the basketball in a creative manner. This isn't my issue, this is YOUR issue. It was stupid to try that dunk, even though you pulled it off. I'm old, if I haven't made that clear enough. I don't want to stifle your creativity, but just don't do anything creative that the fans might enjoy. Here, have some Wheaties."

Alesi was still flabbergasted and frustrated by the glorious hysteria the deep-thinking ESPN basketball experts, studio anchors and production shot-callers made over LSU forward Jarell Martin’s breakaway slam dunk that was preceded by a between-his-legs, greater degree-of-difficulty move — versus no one — in a tie game Saturday against Florida.

I like how Phil Mushnick goes through life trying to find things to be offended by. It's a bitter, sad life when your only purpose is to complain about how offended you are by the present and continuously long for the past.

“Would these TV guys coach kids to do such a thing, especially in a tie game, instruct them to turn an easy two points into a difficult two points? Do they really believe that that kid made a great play, did the right thing? Really? Honestly?

Did he do "the right thing?" An unpaid amateur athlete chose to dunk in a creative manner during a tie game and it's being couched in terms of "right" and "wrong." Unbelievable.

“I watch what TV has done to this game, and I shake my head. I do. It’s enough to make you cry.”

Cry? Like you would cry over an athlete dunking the basketball in a tie game? That's something you would actually cry about? The only thing shameful or dangerous in regard to this story is how Phil Mushnick and Alesi manage to turn an amateur athlete dunking a basketball into a story about "right and wrong."

7. Want to know why Max Scherezer isn't back with the Tigers? It's because he knew his market value and that hurt Mike Ilitch's feelings.

The pitcher had wiggled out of a bases-loaded jam with two strikeouts and a line drive to center in a critical playoff game. He spun around and bounced off the mound. He pumped his fist toward the heavens. And then he walloped his teammates with a series of monstrous high-5s, shrieking in triumph.

Those were human emotions. Joy in triumph. Max's overwhelming display of his joy was understandable at the moment.

But emotions are common to all people. And some people do not display them as openly as Scherzer did that October afternoon in 2013 when he rescued the Tigers, in relief, from the brink of playoff elimination by the Athletics.

Mike Ilitch is private and he is proud. Winning means just about everything to him. It has since he and Marian, his wife, blended some flour in a pot of water and created a pizza mixture that would turn into heavy millions.

Long story short here, the Tigers made a contract offer to Max Scherzer that he rejected and this made Ilitch upset and sealed that Scherzer would not be back with the Tigers after the 2014 season. Apparently Ilitch is so proud that he doesn't understand how business negotiations work.

One year ago this month, Ilitch approved an offer of $144 million to cement Scherzer to the Tigers for six years.

The offer was rejected. Scherzer, the projected Tiger for life, turned down the money and the security. He and his slick agent, Scott Boras, gambled that there would be more money offered and more security in a year.

Two things:

1. I love how Green calls Boras "slick" because he got the most money possible for his client in free agency. That's pretty much the job Boras was hired to do and he did it well. That's not "slick," that's competent.

2. There was more money and more security offered in a year. So Ilitch doesn't have to offer Scherzer another contract after the $144 million was rejected, but Scherzer gambled and it paid off.

But you don't reject Mike Ilitch. You don't snub him. You don't scoff at Ilitch's generosity.

Haha..."generosity" that ended up being less than Scherzer could make on the open market. I'm not sure I would call that being "generous" more than it would be offering Scherzer a contract which was fair, but not what he ended up being worth on the open market. Scherzer thought he was worth more and it turns out he was right. There's no reason to take it personally.

You don't stamp on Ilitch's ego. Even the best pitcher in the American League, advised by the shrewdest player agent in the business, could never get away with insulting Ilitch.

Except, Scherzer did get away with a bigger contract that had more security.

"I think we've made it clear that we have not been pursuing the situation," Dombrowski told The News' Chris McCosky after Scherzer agreed to sign with the Nationals in January. "We've said it numerous times . . .

"We made a real run at Max last spring and it didn't work."

Ilitch never cared to match the Washington offer. The guess here is if the Tigers had made a matching offer a couple of months ago, Scherzer would have grabbed it. Even if the Tigers came somewhat close the Nationals' jackpot, Scherzer, I reckon, would have grabbed less money in defiance of Boras.

Maybe he would have. I don't know. A pitcher who turns down $144 million certainly sounds like a pitcher who is looking to maximize his value on the free agent market.

My theory is, "Goodby." You don't dare to rankle Mike Ilitch. Farewell!

So hurt feelings caused by a rejected business contract is the reason Scherzer isn't with the Tigers anymore. Scherzer landed with a team that is competing for a World Series title and he got more money and a longer contract than the Tigers offered...Ilitch sure showed him didn't he? 

8. Steve Dilbeck has not been pleased with the Dodgers for hiring Andrew Friedman and his Stats Geek army. So he is taking great pride in the Dodgers' best pitching prospect being sent down to minor league camp. After all, who didn't expect an 18 year old to make the Dodgers' Opening Day roster?

The first cut is the deepest, particularly if you’re one of the four sent out. And especially if you’re been hyped as much as left-hander Julio Urias.

An 18 year old pitcher who has never pitched above A+ ball is expected to be one of the first cuts out of camp. Nothing else would make sense. It's entirely possible for Urias to be a great pitcher one day, but he's 18 years old and Steve Dilbeck shouldn't take such idiotic glee in Urias being sent down.

But Urias, the 18-year-old wunderkind, was one of the first four players reassigned to the minor-league camp Saturday by the Dodgers.

Most of the winter Dilbeck thought Urias should have been traded for a proven baseball player. That's what this is all about. It's about Dilbeck disagreeing with the direction of the Dodgers franchise and doing whatever he can to make it seem like Andrew Friedman is constantly screwing up.

Despite his electric stuff, Urias looked like a teenager who could use some more seasoning in his two spring outings.

This is most likely because he IS a teenager who could use some more seasoning before he's ready to play in the majors. Dilbeck can't believe this is true though. If Urias isn't ready to dominate in the majors RIGHT NOW then he'll never be ready. The Dodgers should just trade him now while his value is still high.

Dilbeck needs to stop being passive-aggressive in his constant assault against Andrew Friedman. This assault against Friedman is based on Dilbeck's dislike of advanced statistics. That's it. So it's come to where Dilbeck is being sarcastic and snarky about an 18 year old pitcher being sent down to minor league camp, as if this means anything long-term for the Dodgers or the 18 year old pitcher. I hate it when sportswriters have agendas.

9. Dilbeck also didn't want the Dodgers to trade Matt Kemp. Despite being a critic of Kemp's in the past, once Dilbeck saw a chance to criticize Andrew Friedman he immediately became Kemp's biggest fan. Now Dilbeck is writing stories about Kemp in order to point out that he wasn't a bad teammate. It's just sometimes his teammates didn't like him. This wouldn't affect the clubhouse chemistry. Steve Dilbeck is going to run Andrew Friedman out of town, no matter what it takes. He blames Friedman for using too many statistics to evaluate players and now he thinks Friedman factored in the human element of having good clubhouse chemistry too much by trading Matt Kemp.

Matt Kemp is mystified, and perhaps some of you are mystified that he would be mystified. He’s not bewildered at his trade by the Dodgers to the Padres, but by the implication that his departure has helped rid the L.A. of some evil clubhouse cancer.

I can't recall anyone in the Dodgers organization saying that Kemp was a cancer, so this implication is being brought up and furthered by sportswriters like Steve Dilbeck. He suggested that Kemp was a cancer and has set about to disprove this as true.

I’d say this was the most overblown Dodgers story of the off-season, but really it has only been propagated by a couple of national baseball writers -- and it takes no imagination to figure out whose ear they have -- and not the local beat writers who actually know the team.

Yeah! The Dodgers players liked Matt Kemp and no one should write differently!

Kemp had a way of strutting and enjoying the spotlight that may have rubbed some teammates the wrong way. But his days of “see how cool I can look playing center field” were well past him.

Oh, well I guess there is that too.

At midseason, when he unhappily had been moved from center to left and was playing something slightly less than every day, he would have been served sharing his thoughts only with management.

“I want to play every day, if it's with the Dodgers, if it's with somebody else,” Kemp said then.

Being unhappy with his role on the team and not wanting to change positions to help the team, these are two things that absolutely would NOT affect how Kemp's teammates liked him. Plus, this is all Andrew Friedman's fault somehow.

Looking back, Kemp told Hernandez, “I kept hearing maybe he's going to platoon. For me, it wasn't something I was able to wrap my mind around. I felt like if I wouldn't have said anything, just let it all play out the way it played out, they would have said I didn't care about playing on the field. But when I said I had to be in there playing every day, they said I was a bad teammate. I don't feel like that makes me a bad teammate. I know my abilities and I know when I'm healthy and I'm on the field, I could have helped my team win.”

So Kemp was just saying that he thought he should play everyday and didn't want to platoon. If he had just kept his mouth shut and not worried about platooning then "they" would have written that he doesn't care about the team because he was willing to put his ego aside for the betterment of the team. Great point. 

That might sound a bit more selfish than many would like, but it’s nothing outlandish, either.

No, but it is the sort of thing that can rankle teammates just a little bit. Kemp was basically saying, "I want to play everyday and I'm better than a guy who platoons in the outfield." I can see how that wouldn't cause Kemp's teammates to clap him on the back and congratulate him on taking one for the team. 

Kemp is only 30 and hopefully has a long career still ahead of him. He actually looks pretty good in a Padres uniform, though looking good was never his problem. And neither was being some grand clubhouse cancer.

I think the only ones saying that Kemp was a clubhouse cancer are those like Steve Dilbeck who want to explain a reason why Kemp was traded away that doesn't deal with his performance on the field. The truth is in the middle, that while Kemp wasn't a great teammate (despite Dilbeck's protests that Kemp wasn't THAT bad, which is enough to piss off a few teammates), nobody should think Kemp was traded because he was a bad teammate. The funny part is that Dilbeck speaks out against Friedman using too many computers and numbers to evaluate players while ignoring the human aspect, but also claims that Friedman only paid attention to the human aspect and ignored the numbers and statistics by trading Matt Kemp. Friedman is too numbers-oriented unless that perception doesn't fit the agenda Steve Dilbeck has. In that case, Dilbeck feels free to flip this perception around to fit whatever agenda he has on a given day.

10. Here is something that isn't bad sportswriting from Bruce Jenkins. He dares to take a measured approach to the use of analytics.

Charles Barkley seems to think there’s some sort of war going on. He fights it alone, well on his way to becoming chairman of the “I don’t get analytics” committee.

He ridiculed analytics as “crap,” apparently not realizing he was also denouncing rebound totals and points per game. As far as his dismissing stat wizards as “people who never played the game,” there’s some truth to that. But if Barkley wants to believe that such NBA icons as Gregg Popovich and Pat Riley don’t conduct extensive studies of advanced metrics, he’s wildly misguided.

The statistical revolution hasn’t taken over the major sports, it merely enhances player evaluation at every level. Every smart executive crafts a harmonious relationship between long-trusted scouts (as in “trust your eyes”) and the volumes of advanced metrics that prove invaluable in analyzing matchups, tendencies and percentages.

This is impossible. It's either one or the other. Just ask Rick Telander. A team either hates or loves advanced statistics. There can be no in between. Ever. Never. No NBA coach or GM would ever admit to use advanced statistics.

Warriors GM Bob Myers, to FM 95.7: “When we make decisions, analytics are never more than 50 percent of the process.”

Dallas coach Rick Carlisle: “There’s a lot of information available, but 'selectively’ is the word. There are tools there that are extremely useful. You just have to make sure you don’t overdo it.”

Houston coach Kevin McHale: “It’s just another tool in the toolbox, and very useful. But the toughest thing in this business is how much does a guy love to play? How much does he love to compete? How tough is he? How is he going to play when someone kicks his ass? What’s he going to do the next day?”

Oh. So Bruce Jenkins is writing that NBA teams use advanced statistics as part of the evaluation process and admit to it? What happened to "either/or" and sportswriters claiming that statistics are ruining the sport? This is happening, lack of evidence be damned.

This is a war that doesn’t exist. Only a fool dares to belittle either side.

Exactly. Maybe when the anti-advanced stats crowd stops belittling the use of these statistics "idiots" like Daryl Morey will feel free to not belittle those who sound ignorant when dismissing new ideas, simply because they are threatened by these ideas. 

Monday, February 2, 2015

0 comments Steve Dilbeck Is Still Not Pleased With the Dodgers Offseason

Steve Dilbeck has a had a rough time of it this offseason. It's supposed to be the offseason where he can relax a little bit, but the Dodgers went and hired a nerd to be the team's GM, which means Steve Dilbeck has to put effort into undermining and disagreeing with every move Andrew Friedman makes. And just to spite Steve, the Dodgers are making all sorts of roster moves. They gave away an outfielder with arthritic hips to the Padres, the same guy who became Steve's favorite player immediately after he was traded by the Head Nerd in Charge of the Dodgers. Sure, Dilbeck didn't originally like Matt Kemp, but that changed once he got a chance to criticize Andrew Friedman found out that Kemp wouldn't say he hated Steve. That made all the difference. Anyway, Steve is upset because he hates everything the Dodgers do and continues to be on the warpath to criticize any move Andrew Friedman makes, even when he has to speak nonsense about how teams should sign free agents based on past production, not future production.

But first, Steve wants to know when the Dodgers will start mortgaging their future and trading their top prospects. Of course if Friedman did trade the Dodgers' top prospects then Steve would have an issue with this as well. There is one end goal. Take down the Geek Squad.

Anyway, if he's viewed as some really, really bright prospect you should hang onto him. If his name is Corey Seager, Joc Pederson or Julio Urias.

They are viewed as talented players who will work for a cheaper wage than veteran baseball players. So yes, it makes sense to hang on to them if these prospects appear to have a bright future. And just to be clear, all three of these guys are really good prospects.

Pederson hit .303/.435/.582 last year at AAA with 33 home runs. He's 22 years old.

Seager hit .349/.402/.602 last year between A+ and AA with 20 home runs. He's 20 years old.

Urias pitched 87.2 innings at A+ with a record of 2-2 and an ERA of 2.36, 109 strikeouts, 37 walks and a 1.106 WHIP. He's all of 17 years old.

There are no guarantees, but these three guys are young and have produced at the minor league level. Trading them is a good idea if the Dodgers could get something great in return, but otherwise they are a future source of cheap labor for the Dodgers.

Apparently it bothers CEO Stan Kasten that in the nearly three years his group has owned the Dodgers, not one player or pitcher drafted by the team has graduated from the minors to an everyday job with the major league club.

This should absolutely bother him. A minor league pipeline to the majors is crucial for any team that is serious about winning the World Series. When injuries/ineffectiveness occur, the best and cheapest way to replace players on the major league roster is to have a healthy minor league system. So Stan Kasten should be deeply concerned the Dodgers pipeline in the minors is not strong and this could be part of the reason he hired Andrew Friedman.

I don’t know, the last two years they won their division. Seems a lot more important in the long run.

I try not to be mean, but Steve Dilbeck is an idiot. If Steve Dilbeck isn't an idiot then he is pretending to be an idiot. No sportswriter could cover baseball for any length of time and genuinely think winning the division is more important in the long run than developing a healthy pipeline of minor league players that can contribute to the major league team. The "winning the division" thing can stop once the team has to focus on the free agent market and trades to cover gaps on the major league roster. This requires a very basic understanding of baseball and how free agency works. The Dodgers can't survive and thrive just on the trade and free agent market.

Certainly a team is better off with a reasonable pipeline of young talent coming up, but it is also fine to trade that potential talent for immediate help.

True, but what happens when the Dodgers need immediate help next year after Juan Uribe's contract is up? What happens when Zack Greinke opts-out? What happens when Carl Crawford and Andre Ethier get injured? All of a sudden, not having Joc Pederson or Corey Seager waiting to make a difference for the big league squad becomes a bigger problem than it is in January when everyone on the Dodgers team is expected to be healthy and play to their full potential.

Which brings us to Urias. He’s the 18-year-old Mexican left-hander the Dodgers think is a future ace.

Only this Dodgers team, now with improved defense and a solid lineup, is still in need of one more starting pitcher. There have been talks with the Phillies about ace Cole Hamels, but most assume it won’t happen because Philadelphia would naturally want one of the Dodgers’ three top prospects as part of any package in return.

I see the way Steve Dilbeck is going to criticize Andrew Friedman throughout his tenure with the Dodgers. He'll complain that Friedman is not "winning now" with a team built to "win now," all while ignoring (or in the case of McCarthy, not approving of the signing) Friedman trading for Rollins and Kendrick and signing Brandon McCarthy, which are all attempts to win now.

What if the Dodgers had decided to trade Clayton Kershaw when he was in the minors in an attempt to win now? It's not that the Dodgers don't want to win now, but having a pitcher in the minors who can contribute to the big league squad in two or so years while not demanding a huge contract means the Dodgers can spend money to cover deficiencies at other spots on the roster.

So do you hang on to a potential ace at the cost of acquiring a known entity? Hamels will turn 31 this month and has four additional years on his current contract at $90 million. That’s a reasonable deal considering the $155-million, six-year deal Jon Lester just signed with the Cubs.

Okay, sure. Or the Dodgers could keep a guy 14 years younger than Hamels and ensure they are building for the future while also trying to win now. I mean really, if Steve Dilbeck doesn't see why the Dodgers wouldn't trade Urias for Cole Hamels then I can't help him. Regardless of the uncertainty of prospects, there is uncertainty with Cole Hamels too. He's on the wrong side of 30 now and trading the best pitching prospect the Dodgers have would also involve paying Hamels $90 million, which could then in turn affect how much they have to offer Greinke once he opts-out of his contract.

Or the four-year, $48-million contract the Dodgers just gave Brandon McCarthy, who when last seen by the Dodgers -- back in April, when he was withe Diamondbacks -- was being pounded for six runs and 10 hits in seven innings.

Except the Dodgers didn't have to give up any prospects to sign McCarthy, which is a point that Dilbeck obviously isn't willing to mention when trying to make this comparison. The Dodgers just spent money signing McCarthy, in a move to win now, but didn't give up a prospect to get McCarthy. So it's not the same as signing Hamels, because the Dodgers don't lose Urias in signing McCarthy.

The Phillies reportedly would prefer a position player, so maybe the deal can’t happen. Plus Hamels is left-handed, and the Dodgers already have two lefties in the rotation, Clayton Kershaw and Hyun-Jin Ryu, so maybe they’re better off trying to sign either Max Scherzer or James Shields, both right-handers. Both, of course, turned down qualifying offers, so signing either would cost the Dodgers a precious first-round pick.

James Shields is also going to want more money than he is probably going to end up being worth and Max Scherzer is represented by Scott Boras, so you know that his price will be higher than 85-90% of MLB teams would be willing to pay. It's not just about the first round pick and Dilbeck is getting off his "Why not trade the prospects?" topic of discussion which he has used to hide his real agenda and topic of discussion, which is "Andrew Friedman isn't spending enough money to win now, because everyone knows the more money you spend on players in free agency, the more World Series you will win."

Let’s just hope the Dodgers haven’t gone overboard and are suddenly so wedded to creating their own possible stars that they pass up on adding a known one now.

Yes, let's hope that the Dodgers aren't committed to putting together a Top 10 minor league system, because that would be awful. Let's hope the Dodgers aren't going overboard by creating a minor league system that will be the lifeblood of the franchise and keeps the team competitive over a decade-long span of time.

Now Dilbeck again bemoans that the Dodgers aren't signing any big name free agents. At least he doesn't deviate from his agenda.

Cole Hamels, it would have been sweet. Max Scherzer, rejoice in those coming riches. James Shields, guess we never really thought it was going to happen.

The Dodgers are meant for the cellar of the NL West now. Fortunately they have a stud pitcher coming up in the minors who could be here in a couple of years...

The superstar pitcher who was going to be added to give the Dodgers that fantastic rotation? Guess you can forget about it. Such a nice little dream. And a seemingly reasonable one, given the Dodgers’ vast riches.

Only apparently there will be no superstar-level pitcher coming to the Dodgers this off-season. No new superstar coming anywhere on the team.

I guess the Dodgers will have to stick with the two superstar pitchers they already have. What a bummer.

Stan Conte alert: That should finish the Dodgers rotation, complete with duct tape, bailing wire and crossed fingers. 

Which, by the way, is how the rest of the MLB teams put their rotation together too. It's not like there are teams with guaranteed starters who will perform above league average from the 1st to the 5th starter.

That makes your expected 2015 rotation: Clayton Kershaw, Zach Greinke, Hyun-Jin Ryu, McCarthy and Anderson.

Worst rotation ever? Most likely.

Now if you go way out there on a limb and assume good health, that’s a really good rotation. Not as good as if Hamels or Scherzer had dropped in, but really good.

Which, by the way again, even with Hamels and Scherzer in the rotation then it would be a really good rotation and good health would still have to be assumed.

McCarthy has been on the disabled list seven times in his nine-year career with shoulder problems. Until last season, he had never thrown 200 innings.

Anderson has been on the DL seven times and he’s 26. Last season he threw only 43 1/3 innings for the Rockies, sidelined by surgeries for a fractured index finger and then a bulging disk in his back.

Guess what? This is where having a great minor league system, the same minor league system that Dilbeck wanted to tear apart to find a superstar player, comes in handy for the Dodgers. See how it works? A healthy minor league system can create more options for a rotation complete with bailing wire and crossed fingers in case the wire breaks and the crossed fingers don't work.

So if you found yourself wistful that this new Dodgers management team would come in and make at least one big splash by adding an elite player, sorry. The lineup is set, the rotation is set and probably so is the bullpen.

If you found yourself wistful that the new Dodgers management would not trade away prospects and instead choose to build the team from within while remaining competitive now, then you are probably pretty happy.

Their only big move has been to trade Matt Kemp for a part-time catcher and a pair of pitching prospects, one of whom is to be flipped for a year of shortstop Jimmy Rollins.

A Matt Kemp with arthritic hips.

But without a big-time addition. No sexy newcomer. Nothing to grab a headline and excite the masses.

I forgot how many sexy newcomers and headlines that excited the masses the Royals and Giants had last offseason that enabled them to win the World Series. Obviously I'm just forgetting that sexy newcomers and headlines immediately lead to World Series titles.

They can get by with this for now.

Muddle through, you mean? It's hard to get excited when the Dodgers just have the best pitcher in baseball and Zack Greinke headlining the rotation, but I'm sure everyone will find a way to get excited anyway.

They still might not be done.

Which isn't at all what Dilbeck said previously in this column. To recall:

The superstar pitcher who was going to be added to give the Dodgers that fantastic rotation? Guess you can forget about it.

Only apparently there will be no superstar-level pitcher coming to the Dodgers this off-season.

Stan Conte alert: That should finish the Dodgers rotation, 

The lineup is set, the rotation is set and probably so is the bullpen.

The lineup will be very good, the rotation potentially superb, the defense much improved. But without a big-time addition. 

But hey, now Dilbeck says the Dodgers may not be done. He said five separate times the Dodgers were done, but now decides he may be wrong. Well, not wrong. Only the Geek Squad is wrong. Steve is just playing both sides so as not to take any chances. He wants to be negative about Friedman's current moves because of his dislike for Friedman, while also keeping the door open to Friedman making another move so as not to look incorrect or too quick to judge.

That rotation is pretty fragile – Kershaw, Greinke and Ryu were all sidelined by injury last season – so some kind of swing man may yet be coming. Certainly, there’s no way he’s going to count on this starting five being healthy all season.

The rotation is set!...except it's not. Dilbeck will judge Friedman based on the rotation being set, mostly because that makes it easier to judge him negatively.

But it doesn’t appear it will be a Scherzer. Not someone to get the heart racing.

A heart racing doesn't lead to World Series titles. It's important to know this.

I know, you just sort of sigh. Apparently dreams of spending big were left to a time past.

(Sigh) Big spending worked so well last year in helping the Dodgers win a playoff series.

Dilbeck now wonders if Brandon McCarthy is just another Jason Schmidt and makes an incredibly stupid comment about free agency and why teams spend on free agents.

And so now it’s time to ask: Is Brandon McCarthy really worth $48 million for four years?

Eh, maybe not. Maybe. Who really knows? Ask again in four years. He's a starting pitcher in a league where starting pitchers are at a premium.

McCarthy is a nice enough pitcher. Certainly a solid No. 5. Still with some upside. But a $48-million pitcher at four years for a guy with chronic shoulder problems?

Welcome to the MLB market for pitchers. Besides, Dilbeck wants the Dodgers to spend money so as not to act like a small market team and that's what they are doing. 

If you examine the traditional baseball statistics on McCarthy, this deal makes about as much sense and Vin Scully signing with the Padres.

(The sound of crickets chirping)

At no point in the 31-year-old’s career has he posted particularly impressive numbers.

Other than in 2011 and 2012 or with the Yankees in 2014. Those two and a half years he had an ERA below 3.40 and very impressive xFIP. Starting pitchers have gotten more money than $48 million in free agency based on two and a half good years of pitching.

He’s struck out 6.3 batters per nine innings, with a nice 1.29 WHIP. And since he’s battled those lingering shoulder problems --- he’s been on the disabled list seven times with a sore shoulder --- only twice in his career has he pitched more than 135 innings.

Now McCarthy's injuries are the reason why he may not end up being worth $48 million over four years. Though again, I have to add that if the Dodgers had a better farm system then they wouldn't have to spend $48 million on the free agent market and could rely on starting pitcher within their system to be the 5th starter. One more reason why Dilbeck's first column I covered here is so out of touch with reality. A healthy farm system means the Dodgers could allocate $48 million at another spot on the roster. No reason to be wedded to stars in the minor league system though, right?

Dodgers General Manager Farhan Zaidi and McCarthy argue a new conditioning program made him stronger, elevating his velocity a couple mph to 93 and enabling him to finally last the duration of a full season. Plus, it’s not like Chase Field is a pitcher’s ballpark.

Clearly the Dodgers believe the way he pitched in New York is further indication his past health issues are behind him.

He's getting older, the injuries may not be behind him. By the way, the great and wonderful Max Scherzer has only pitched 200 innings in his career twice.

“We feel really good about him turning the corner last year and think he has the ability to carry that kind of work load into the future,” Zaidi said.

Can you speak a different language please, because Steve Dilbeck doesn't speak nerd. (Dilbeck high-fives his friends who are all wearing letterman jackets)

At one of the bastions of sabermetrics --- FanGraphs --- the argument was made by Jeff Sullivan that time could prove the Dodgers actually have a bargain in McCarthy because his xFIP is so awesome. Surely you’re familiar with xFIP.

Yes.

No? 

Yes.

I absolutely promise you the Geek Squad is.

High-five your friends in the letterman jackets again, Steve.

Oh, and guess what? Dilbeck understands xFIP too. That doesn't make him a member of the Geek Squad though, he just wants to know his enemy.

No doubt I will mangle explaining it, but it’s a stat that measures walks, hit batters, strikeouts and home runs (that should have been allowed based on fly balls). And in xFIP, McCarthy totally rocks.

“If you believe in Brandon McCarthy’s xFIP and shoulder strength, the Dodgers just inked a pretty good bargain,” wrote Sullivan. “If you figure he’s likely to return to the DL a handful of times for the old problem he had, he can still be more than worth the money in the innings he manages to throw.”

Starting pitching is expensive, and repeat after me, those teams who don't have a farm system where they can call up a prospect who can fill the role of a 5th starter often have to take a chance on a guy like Brett Anderson or sign a free agent pitcher like Brandon McCarthy. One more very good reason the Dodgers may not want to trade Urias or other minor league starting pitchers who they believe have potential to be part of the rotation in order to acquire a superstar starting pitcher.

So a pitcher who throws extremely well for 20-25 starts is worth more than a mediocre pitcher who starts 30-35 times. Which makes perfect sense.

Not all the time, but whatever. It depends on who is making those 10 starts in place of the pitcher who throws extremely well for 20-25 starts.

Only McCarthy has not been an exceptional pitcher.

Ready for this statement about free agency? Here it comes.

They’re paying less for what he’s done that what they hope he can do. Which makes no sense.

So free agency is NOT about paying for what a pitcher can do? It's about paying for what a pitcher has done? That's the point of free agency to Steve Dilbeck. This explains a hell of a lot. Steve seems to believe a pitcher should be paid in free agency based on what he has done, as sort of a reward by a team who didn't benefit from that free agent's performance but wanted to tell him he did a great job in the past, instead of paying him based on what that pitcher will do in the future. If anyone is looking to unlock the secret on how to overpay for free agents who never live up to their contract, then look no further than this sentence written by Dilbeck. Paying a free agent for what's he done, instead of what he will do in the future is a great way to sign players who aren't worth the money they are being paid in free agency.

And he got four years and $48 million.

And it makes absolute sense for McCarthy to be paid based on what he will do instead of what he has done in the past. It's ridiculous to do free agency any other way.

I'm amazed that Dilbeck thinks the Dodgers should pay for what McCarthy has done in the past and not what he will do in the future.

“Just because of his intelligence and attention to detail and game planning, plus his command,” Zaidi said. “There was not a pitcher during my time there who was better able to execute a game plan than Brandon.”

Now he has to execute it effectively for four years. Has to stay healthy for four years. These are good odds?

Like Dilbeck said, even great pitchers like Greinke and Kershaw were injured this year. So McCarthy may not be healthy all four years, but if he keeps up how he pitched for the Yankees then he will be worth $12 million per year. Plus, this is why having a good farm system is important. If McCarthy does get injured there is another decent pitcher who can take his place for a few starts.

Former Dodgers GM Ned Colletti once signed a sore shouldered pitcher to three years (corrected) and $47 million. Jason Schmidt made 10 starts in two seasons and called it a career.

I don't believe it. From everything I have read, Ned Colletti had never made a mistake as the GM of the Dodgers. This is obviously a lie that Dilbeck is telling.

At least Schmidt had been a three-time All-Star and Cy Young runner-up. There was evidence of greatness. He’d thrown over 135 innings nine different times and 200 innings five times.

Fortunately, the purpose of free agency isn't to pay a pitcher based on his past results, but to pay him based on anticipated future results.

Not so with McCarthy. Their greatest similarity is a risky contract.

(Steve Dilbeck) "Why won't the Dodgers spend some money to shore up their rotation and other needy spots on the roster?"

(Steve Dilbeck) "I can't believe the Dodgers spent money on a pitcher like Brandon McCarthy to shore up their rotation. It's a risky contract for sure. The Dodgers would have been better off spending more money on another pitcher to shore up their rotation, and be sure to trade a few prospects to acquire that pitcher. Then give that pitcher a new contract extension based on how well he pitched in the past for a team that wasn't the Dodgers. That's a whole lot less risky."

Anything to criticize Andrew Friedman I guess.

Friday, December 12, 2014

4 comments Matt Kemp Was On the Trade Block And Steve Dilbeck and Bill Plaschke Were Incredulous This Could Happen; Then Kemp Got Traded And Shit Got Real

I wrote this post about Bill Plaschke and Steve Dilbeck's reaction to Matt Kemp being dangled as trade bait. Then, Kemp got traded the next day so I updated it with Plaschke and Dilbeck's reactions to this trade. You won't believe this, but they are critical of Andrew Friedman.

Matt Kemp is 29 years old. He hit .287/.346/.506 last season with 25 home runs and 87 RBI's. He was part of a four-man outfield that the Dodgers were actively looking to make a three-man outfield, so his name was appearing in trade rumors. Kemp may be the most talented outfielder the Dodgers had (or at least second best depending on your view of Yasiel Puig), so it did and didn't make sense to dangle him in a trade. Kemp is owed $107.5 million over the next five years, so the Dodgers aren't necessarily cutting payroll, but could definitely freed up some payroll by trading Kemp while getting good prospects in return. Still, Bill Plaschke and Steve Dilbeck are not happy Kemp's name had popped up in trade rumors prior to being traded. Full disclosure: These two are going to hate everything the Dodgers do because they don't like Sabermetrics and they think that's all Andrew Friedman is going to use to evaluate baseball players. So no matter happens, they will criticize moves the Dodgers make because they hate the Dodgers' GM and how he evaluates players.

Bill Plaschke goes first on why even mentioning Kemp's name in trade talks is a huge mistake. (This was prior to Kemp being traded)

This column should not have to be written. The truths here should go without saying. Any Dodgers fan will understand it implicitly.

But these out-of-towners are running the baseball operations in Chavez Ravine these days, 

Ned Colletti was from Chicago. He worked for the Cubs and then the San Francisco Giants. He was an out-of-towner too. Carry on with your mindless bashing...

they don't yet know the pulse of the dugout, they haven't learned the heartbeat of the clubhouse, 

Two paragraphs in and we already have the first reference to Friedman sitting high upon a tower of statistics unable to understand what happens in a dugout. Friedman worked with Joe Maddon in Tampa Bay so I really doubt he has no idea how a dugout works.

So listen up, new guys.

You don't trade Matt Kemp.

You do if it improves the team. You don't make players on a team sacred cows. That's how mediocrity happens.

You don't trade the one man whose bat can change the complexion of the team from beige to red. You don't trade the one guy who can transform the lineup from stilted to swaggering.

The Dodgers are definitely not trading Adrian Gonzalez or Yasiel Puig. Don't worry about that, Bill.

(And, of course, you don't trade the only guy willing to publicly call out Yasiel Puig during the middle of a game, but that's another story.)

Yes, Matt Kemp was one of the few Dodgers who was willing to take on the monster that is Yasiel Puig. For that, Bill Plaschke will be eternally grateful. Yasiel Puig isn't a very good baseball player, he is a cancer just waiting to ruin the Dodgers postseason chances.

When Matt Kemp is right, the Dodgers offense is right,

The same can be said about Yasiel Puig.

He had 17 home runs and 49 runs batted in over the final two months of the season, and had a .365 on-base percentage in the second half. In September, he had nine homers and 25 RBIs.

Yasiel Puig hit .398/.492/.731 during the month of May when the Dodgers were 15-15. Obviously this is all his fault. Puig hit .351/.425/.688 during the month of July and the Dodgers were 14-10. It's clear that Puig can't lift his teammates up like Matt Kemp can. By the way, Puig had a .366 on-base percentage in the second half. Just remember this while Plaschke brags about Kemp's second-half revival.

It's easy to blame everyone in uniform for the postseason debacle, but Kemp was not the reason the Dodgers lost to the St. Louis Cardinals.

Matt Kemp didn't bring the Dodgers down when he was struggling in the first half of the season, not at all, he is only responsible for lifting the Dodgers up when he plays well. This is as opposed to Yasiel Puig who brings the Dodgers down no matter what he does.

The new guys will surely talk to players who said that Kemp can be a clubhouse irritant, loud and abrasive.

If only there were a player willing to publicly call out Matt Kemp during the middle of a game like Matt Kemp would do. If only...

But when he's going well, it's a happy, even inspirational noise.

Players say that Kemp is a clubhouse irritant and Bill Plaschke says, "But it's a good irritant and the players who aren't annoyed by Kemp think it's an inspirational noise."

Players say that Puig is a clubhouse irritant and Bill Plaschke says, "This is why Yasiel Puig needs to be benched or traded. When he's going well, it's a happy noise that bothers everyone."

The question isn't what kind noise Kemp makes when he's going good, but what he's like when he is going bad? Isn't that what writers tend to focus on with Yasiel Puig at all times? What a distraction and danger to the Dodgers team he is? Why does Plaschke only focus on Kemp's impact in the locker room when he is playing well? Of course Plaschke has an agenda and wants to separate Kemp from Puig, so this seems to be his attempt to do so.

(I don't mean to keep harping on the Puig comparison, but Plaschke brought it up and he has written many negative things about Puig in the past year. This includes talking about how Puig is a clubhouse cancer and a bomb on the field just waiting to explode and ruin the very existence of the Dodgers franchise)

The team fed off that sound at the end of last season, and there's no reason for the Dodgers to suddenly silence it now.

No word on what would happen to the Dodgers clubhouse if Kemp got injured or started struggling.

Even Kemp's grumbling about playing left field has stopped. His agent, Junior Spivey, confirmed to The Times' Dylan Hernandez this week that Kemp is no longer demanding a return to center field.

Oh, Kemp will be forgiven under the Michael Young Rule? It's fine to demand a trade or complain about your position as long as you eventually take it back and become a team player after throwing a hissy-fit. Imagine if Puig had complained about his position. I doubt forgiveness from Bill would come so easily.

Kemp is a proud man who felt he was being embarrassed in an unfamiliar position, but now that he's hitting again, that embarrassment is gone.

But again, what happens if he stops hitting? Plaschke tries to avoid this issue because he knows it leads him down a road where it's more difficult to differentiate Kemp from a guy who causes a bad atmosphere in the clubhouse. Always with the agendas.

Obviously, the new guys have holes to fill, and Kemp is the easiest way to fill them. He could be used to pick up a top starting pitcher, or a shortstop and a catcher, or any combination of the three with a veteran reliever tossed in. Just as obviously, the Dodgers have an outfield surplus, and Kemp is the most obvious way to try to improve while reducing the clutter.

Yes and yes. Kemp makes a lot of money and he brought a decent return in a trade. Therefore he is the one on the trade block. Other MLB teams don't want Andre Ethier or Carl Crawford, and if they did, the Dodgers certainly wouldn't get the return for these players that they could get for Kemp.

One problem. At this stage in their careers, the combination of Andre Ethier and Carl Crawford can't come close to matching Kemp's impact.

Possibly not, but the hope is that the players the Dodgers get back in the trade for Kemp could improve the Dodgers at another position either in the short or long-term. That was the purpose of dangling Kemp out as trade bait.

And who knows what you're going to get out of the kid Joc Pederson, or even that bigger kid named Puig.

Nice shot at Puig. Who knows what the Dodgers would get from Kemp? Would it be the guy who struggled in the first half of the 2014 season? The guy who played great in the second half of the 2014 season? Would it be the MVP-caliber Kemp or the injured 2012 and 2013 version of Kemp? Plaschke works hard to paint Pederson and Puig as unknowns, but Kemp is an unknown too. The last few years of his career haven't exactly been consistent.

Puig hit four homers with 17 RBIs after the All-Star break last season before striking out eight times in 12 postseason at-bats. There is an equal chance of his upcoming season being either breakout or breakdown.

Guess what? It's the same thing with Matt Kemp. Don't lie and pretend this isn't true. Matt Kemp has been injured in two of the last three seasons, but way to create an alternate reality where Kemp is the picture of reliable.

If Bill wants to talk strikeouts, Matt Kemp struck out 145 times in 541 at-bats this season, while Puig struck out 124 times in 558 at-bats. I like how Plaschke uses the small sample size of the postseason as if it extrapolates over the entire season, but that's just not true.

It's impossible to guess, and the new guys shouldn't try.

Yes, don't even try. Because Puig's performance is unpredictable, like 99% of major league players, so just give him on him. That makes sense.

Kemp hit six homers in 148 at-bats against lefties, a pace that would make him almost twice as effective as the rest of the team's power hitters combined. 

This is impressive compared to the other hitters on the Dodgers' team, but given that comes out to about 24 home runs against left-handed pitchers over 600 at-bats, it's not exactly super power-slugging numbers for a right-handed hitter. Not to mention, the Dodgers shouldn't have turned down a trade offer for Kemp because they are concerned they won't have power against late-inning left-handers. That seems short-sighted.

Pederson isn't included in that first group because, well, in seven plate appearances he is still waiting for his first career hit against a left-hander.

Clearly this is the sign that Joc Pederson is a bust. I guess that's the takeaway from this comment.

There has been talk at this week's winter meetings about Kemp being traded to the San Diego Padres for catcher Yasmani Grandal — seriously — but one of the new guys told reporters Tuesday that this deal was not close.

And Piggy, it's rude to call them "the new guys." Show a little respect or at least use their name as opposed to calling them "the new guys" simply because you are too old and lazy to learn the new information they use as just a part of their player evaluation.

Good. Let's keep it that way.

The new guys

This is going to continuously annoy me. Andrew Friedman is not new at his position. He is new in town, but so was the great Ned Colletti at some point.

certainly cannot be blamed for listening to offers for the 30-year-old Kemp and a contract that will pay him $107 million for the next five years.

Then Bill Plaschke wrote an entire column (this one) blaming the Dodgers and Friedman for listening to offers. In Bill's senile, ESPN-influenced mind I am sure this makes sense. 

"The Dodgers can't be blamed for listening to offers for Matt Kemp. I will now blame them for listening to offers for Matt Kemp."

For most of his nine seasons in a Dodgers uniform, Kemp has pretty much driven everyone crazy, particularly this columnist, who has suggested both that the Dodgers trade him and keep him — sometimes in the same column.

But since a new evil arrived in the form of Yasiel Puig, all of a sudden Matt Kemp is an angel and a great guy to have in the clubhouse when he is playing well. Matt Kemp used to be an asshole in the clubhouse, but Bill can only hate one Dodgers player at a time, so he will wax poetic about what a great clubhouse guy Kemp is in certain situations while bashing "the new guys" and Puig.

The championship window is closing fast on the core of this Dodgers group. 

Speaking of that championship window, here is what Plaschke wrote after the Dodgers lost in the 2014 playoffs. Never forget.

The failure was something much broader, much deeper, and much more evident in the Dodgers words than even their play. This was a 94-win team that was favored by many to traipse through October on its way to the World Series, yet their journey lasted all of five days. This was the ugliest postseason elimination for this franchise in 29 years, since the Cardinals did this to them in the 1985 National League Championship Series.

The team with the richest payroll in baseball history turned out to be a beautifully detailed Cadillac without any tires, a $240-million clunker that couldn't even finish the first October lap.

This is the Dodgers team that Bill claims has a "championship window." The same team he is referring to as a $240-million clunker. Yep, Plaschke can't keep a consistent opinion. 

The failure continues with the baseball people, and that means General Manager Ned Colletti, who sat on a couch in the clubhouse early Friday evening and winced.

The failure continued with the same GM that Plaschke now bemoans was fired and replaced with Andrew Friedman. But yeah, back in October when the Dodgers were underachieving, those were the good old days.

Colletti will take most of the heat here for failure to work within his bosses' philosophical constraints to somehow put together a group of decent relief pitchers.

Rip them when they are here, bemoan their absence when they are gone.

Why does this rich and powerful team so often play selfishly and distracted, particularly under pressure? Why are they, you know, the anti-Cardinals?

This is the "championship window" that Plaschke is now referring to. The same "championship window" that didn't seem to exist two short months ago.

And throughout the series there was a visible lack of Dodgers leadership on the field when pitchers were struggling or Kemp was arguing with umpire Dale Scott, and nearly bumping him, all by himself.

But it was a GOOD arguing and bumping that inspired the Dodgers. Kemp was showing a lack of leadership at the time, but now that he is gone he was a saint in the clubhouse.

And in a too-little-too-late move, he strangely benched Yasiel Puig on Tuesday, which meant Ethier had to make his fourth start in a month in the biggest game of the year. Little wonder Ethier ended the Dodgers' only scoring rally in the sixth inning by getting lost off third base.

Yasiel Puig is in some way partly responsible for Andre Ethier getting lost off third base.

No need to cut up the season, the Cardinals did that for them, once again leaving the Dodgers in sad little blue-stained pieces on their perfectly manicured turf with the arch cut into the outfield, the team that does everything right again triumphing over a team gone wrong.

Does that sound like a writer who believes the Dodgers have a championship window? So as suspected, Plaschke is taking part in some revisionist history. Back to the current day (and column) before Kemp got traded, back when Kemp was a saint and not showing a lack of leadership by arguing with umpires.

Despite his great numbers, Gonzalez appears to be slowing;

And Matt Kemp is three years from being the same age as Gonzalez, when he would start slowing down (especially given his injury history), and have two years left on his contract. I feel this needs to be mentioned.

Uribe is aging; the bullpen behind Kenley Jansen is weathered; Zack Greinke can opt out of his contract after next summer; and who knows how long Clayton Kershaw can physically handle being baseball's best pitcher.

This could be the last season that this collection of players can seriously contend for a title. 

It depends on what your definition of "seriously contend for a title" means. Did the Dodgers seriously contend for a title last year? They didn't make it out of the NLDS. Isn't the fact Plaschke just listed three important Dodgers players who are declining a good reason to trade an asset like Kemp, or at least look into his value, in order to bring on players who aren't declining and keep that championship window open just a little while longer?

If the new guys truly want to win right now, which the Los Angeles market demands in a way that the new guys never experienced in St. Petersburg or Oakland, they will try to win it with Matt Kemp.

So then what was Plaschke's solution for the four-man outfield the Dodgers have? Other than trade Puig of course. I know that's the first option. It's so annoying that Plaschke is pretending like Kemp's performance isn't a question mark, even as he described how Kemp struggled for the first half of the season.

But then, the unthinkable happened, and the Dodgers traded Matt Kemp. Bill Plaschke is very displeased. 

The Dodgers are no longer a reflection of two playoff appearances in two seasons. They are no longer a symbol of a Guggenheim rebirth that led to a league-leading attendance of 3.7 million.

Everything is over now. The Dodgers are rebuilding by opening up an outfield position and upgrading at second base and shortstop. That's definitely the sign of a team not interested in making the playoffs.

They are no longer connected to anything, it seems, but one man who appears intent on blowing them up.

The Dodgers made changes to a team that Bill felt was flawed. Oh my gracious, what will Bill do?

Bringing in Jimmy Rollins to play shortstop was smart. Trading Dee Gordon at the probable peak of his value was savvy. Replacing him with Howie Kendrick was sound.

But the Matt Kemp trade was nuts.

It wasn't the best trade, I will admit that, but it had it's reasons. Kemp couldn't always be counted on to be healthy and he isn't quite the leader (as Bill has admitted) that Plaschke desperately wants to paint him as now.

It is not a trade when you give the other team $32 million to take the guy. It is not a trade when the only proven major leaguer acquired is a .225-hitting catcher who threw out 13% of baserunners and has been suspended for use of performance-enhancing drugs.

It is a trade when you only pay $32 million of a $107 million contract. Grandal was suspended almost two years ago and using only batting average doesn't show what an upgrade he will be for the Dodgers at the catcher position. He's a switch-hitting catcher who has power and gets on-base at a decent clip. He's not Johnny Bench, but Matt Kemp also isn't Roberto Clemente.

it's a salary dump by owners stinging from the losses incurred by that lousy television deal.

It's a salary dump that allows the Dodgers to upgrade at second base, trade for a shortstop, and improve the rotation that Plaschke claims hurt the Dodgers in the playoffs. Looking at the trade purely from the perspective of a single transaction it may not make sense. Looking at the trade as part of a plan, it makes a little more sense. Plaschke isn't interested in doing anything but bashing Friedman though.

The Dodgers obviously felt that at age 30 and with his injury history, Kemp may have peaked. He may never again be an outstanding outfielder. He isn't always great in the clubhouse.

And he was only owed $21.5 million every year for the next five years. Why did the Dodgers dare to trade Kemp? It's certainly a mystery. It's a risk, but contrary to what he would have you believe, Plaschke didn't think the Dodgers were a complete team back in October. He didn't think they were a team on the very cusp of a World Series title.

But didn't we also hear some of those same things back in 1998 about a 29-year-old Dodgers slugger who had also seemingly peaked? Guy by the name of Mike Piazza.

You mean the trade that brought Gary Sheffield, Bobby Bonilla, and Charles Johnson to the Dodgers? The same Charles Johnson that netted the Dodgers two really good years of Todd Hundley in a separate trade? Yeah, that ended up being a terrible trade. Gary Sheffield was a bum.

Kemp's numbers will most likely decline in spacious Petco Park, but that won't compensate for the giant right-handed power hole he left in a lineup where the cleanup hitter is now … Kendrick?

Or Adrian Gonzalez or Puig could be the cleanup hitter. Not sure why Plaschke thinks Kendrick would be the guy.

About that defense, Friedman is taking a huge risk that Joc Pederson is ready to play center field after a difficult stay in Chavez Ravine last September.

Buster Posey struggled initially when he was called up. It doesn't mean a hell of a lot in the long run if a young player struggles when initially called up to the majors.

Friedman's other move this week, essentially trading pitcher Dan Haren for free-agent pitcher Brandon McCarthy, doesn't seem to noticeably help a team that seems no better right now than at the end of last season.

You mean the part where Friedman traded a pitcher who may retire and then signed a very similar pitcher who is three years younger? Friedman spent $48 million on McCarthy! Wasn't Plaschke just accusing Friedman of dumping salary?

Impressively, the new guy isn't afraid of the heat. Friedman returned a phone call even though he knew I would be criticizing the Kemp trade.

That is impressive that Friedman isn't too scared to talk to the big scary Bill Plaschke on the phone. Clearly, Bill Plaschke has a much higher opinion of himself than anyone else does. Is Andrew Friedman supposed to be scared of Bill Plaschke or something? Sounds like Bill is pretty self-involved.

He was asked if he understood how quickly the increasingly impatient Dodgers fans will turn on him if the Kemp trade doesn't work.

No Bill, he doesn't understand this. Please explain it to him like he's an idiot. Because obviously Andrew Friedman doesn't understand how to do his job and has zero experience with impatient fans.

He was asked if he understood how, just a couple of months into his journey, he was already treading in the sort of deep water not found off the shores of St. Petersburg.

How condescending. If Plaschke is talking about Friedman treading in deep water in terms of being the one leading the Dodgers to the same place that he has already led the Rays to, then yes, I think Friedman gets it. See, the Rays have had success under Friedman. I'm not sure why Plaschke can't grasp this concept. He seems to think only in Los Angeles is success expected. Friedman comes from an MLB team that couldn't draw a crowd even when the team was a success. Success was essential in Tampa Bay because they were a low-market team that had a hard time drawing a crowd.

"We are incredibly passionate about what we do, and we certainly understand and appreciate the fan's passion, and that's part of the motivating factor for us," Friedman said.

THEN WHY DID YOU TRADE A PLAYER FROM A TEAM THAT BILL PLASCHKE THOUGHT WAS FLAWED BUT HE'S NOW GOING TO PRETEND HE DIDN'T THINK THAT?

The only position that concerns Dodgers fans would be a spot in the World Series for the first time in 27 years.

This being something that Bill Plaschke intentionally didn't mention, but Andrew Friedman has led a team to the World Series. So he has experience getting his team a spot in the World Series.

Two years ago, they were two victories from that spot. With Kemp gone, they're not getting any closer.

As part of his agenda to mislead readers, guess who wasn't a part of that team that was two victories from the World Series? A gentleman by the name of Matt Kemp. So the Dodgers aren't closer to the World Series without Kemp, even though they got close to the World Series two years ago without Matt Kemp. So, the Dodgers can get there without him. But hey, Plaschke has an agenda and he will be damned if reality messes with the fiction he is writing.

Now Steve Dilbeck will become incredulous at the idea of entertaining trade offers for Matt Kemp. Here is what Dilbeck wrote before Kemp was traded.

The Dodgers want to move an outfielder, maybe two, and the one getting the most attention is Matt Kemp? The Baltimore Orioles, San Diego Padres, Texas Rangers and Seattle Mariners have all reportedly expressed serious interest in Kemp.

Yes, one of the better outfielders the Dodgers have was receiving interest on the trade market. I know, it's shocking that other teams would want to trade for a good player and not Dilbeck's hero, Andre Ethier, but that's the state of baseball right now. Math nerds running teams want to trade for good baseball players, not slightly above average ones who will be 33 years old next year. 

Now, if you’re the Dodgers, sure, you listen. That’s basic due diligence. But unless they’re just blown away by an offer, there should be no way Kemp is the one moved.

I have a feeling Steve is not going to be impressed with Yasmani Grandal as part of the return for Kemp. Of course, trading Kemp also opened up payroll to improve the shortstop and second base position, along with signing Brandon McCarthy, but everything Andrew Friedman does is wrong so I'm sure those were dumb moves.

The Dodgers “lost” free agent Hanley Ramirez to the Boston Red Sox after the shortstop signed a jaw-dropping $88-million deal. They can’t really afford to lose the only other real right-handed power in the lineup. Certainly you’re not going to count on the streaky Yasiel Puig, who hit exactly one home run in a 54-game stretch from June 5 to Sept. 15?

It always comes back to Puig. Always. The good news is that Jimmy Rollins hit 17 home runs last year and Grandal hit 15 home runs. That's 32 home runs in the lineup right there while two positions have been improved. Great success!

Since ownership is so blindly in love with Puig (corrected: can opt into arbitration after three years of major league service time),

Yes, how dare ownership keep an eye on costs and trade away a 30 year old outfielder with five years left on a $100+ million-plus contract in favor of keeping the young player with a higher ceiling. Dumb move.

What's really funny is that Dilbeck is just like Bill Plaschke. He's going to criticize Andrew Friedman no matter what. If Friedman spends money, they will say that Friedman comes from a small market team and has no idea how to handle big contracts for a "real" team. If Friedman cuts salaries they will say that cutting salary is the very opposite of what a team on the very, very cusp of a World Series title needs to do. Both will forget that the Royals were in the World Series last year and the Dodgers couldn't get out of the NLDS while spending the most money in the majors. If Friedman spends money, he doesn't know what he's doing. If Friedman doesn't spend money then he is going cheap and ruining a title contender.

So if they’re seriously listening to offers for Kemp, they must be finding a nothing market for Andre Ethier and Carl Crawford.

Or a market where the return isn't close to being worth trading either player.

It’s impossible to reject a trade when you unaware of what’s included, but it is unlikely another team is going to include some can’t-miss prospect for Kemp.

Grandal is a pretty good catcher who is only 26 years old. Joe Wieland is young, but hasn't torn up the majors in his limited time and Zach Eflin pitched pretty well in the minors last year and is (depending on who you believe) the #12-#16 prospect for the Padres (of course he's getting traded for Rollins). It's not a massive haul, but the Padres are also eating about $75 million of Kemp's salary.

As excited as fans are over the way Kemp finished last season (.306, 20 homers, 70 runs batted in, 23 doubles in his last 92 games), there are still all those injuries and struggles the previous two seasons.

Right. And there is also the fact that he is the most expensive outfielder the Dodgers have and they have Joc Pederson waiting to play centerfield. So really, the Dodgers had five outfielders and they didn't feel they could rely on Kemp enough to keep him. In fact, Dilbeck himself recently argued for consistency in the Dodgers outfield over a player who has struggled. So now that Kemp is gone, there is only one Dodgers outfielder Dilbeck can hate, Yasiel Puig, which means he can put all of his effort into hating Puig.

So if you’re not going to get some serious phenom in return, why trade Kemp? There’s zero power available in free agency and it’s becoming rarer in this post-steroids era.

I do agree with this statement. Power is becoming a rare commodity. Fortunately, the Dodgers still hope that Puig can find some of the power he lost last year, Grandal has power for a catcher, and Adrian Gonzalez still exists on the Dodgers' roster.

I repeat: The unreliable, typically dour and frequently injured Ramirez just signed for $88 million for four years. Kemp’s owed $106 million over the next five and he’s a year younger. People who assume there is no way Kemp could get an equal contract if he were a free agent now, best look at Ramirez.

So Steve Dilbeck's reasoning for why the Dodgers shouldn't have traded Matt Kemp is because if Kemp were a free agent then a team would overpay for him? Who cares what Kemp could get on the open market? Kemp's value on the open market doesn't mean he is worth $21 million to the Dodgers anymore. The Dodgers didn't trade Kemp because they thought he wasn't worth $21 million, but because they had other options in the outfield and didn't feel Kemp could be relied upon. He was worth more to them as a trade asset to fill other spots on the roster that need improvement, while opening up room in the outfield for Puig, Ethier, Pederson, and Crawford to play.

The real unknown here is the Geek Squad.

You are such a fucking hack. At least pretend like you aren't going to spend the rest of your years writing for the "Times" bashing Friedman and Zaidi for daring to have ideas that you don't have the energy to try and understand.

New President of Baseball Operations Andrew Friedman, General Manager Farhan Zaidi and Senior Vice President of Baseball Operations Josh Byrnes all come from small market clubs. They’re playing with real money for the first time in their careers. They supposedly think outside the traditional baseball box.

As I wrote earlier, Dilbeck and Plaschke are going to bash them no matter what they do. If Friedman cuts salary just a little bit then he is trying to run the Dodgers like a small market team, if Friedman signs players to big contracts then he is playing with real money and probably won't know how to handle it. It all goes back to the fact Dilbeck and Plaschke just don't like the ideas (and roster-building strategies) of Andrew Friedman.

But this Dodgers’ team is built to win it all, right now. It won 94 games last year, and it was considered a disappointing season.

So why not take the exact team, minus Hanley Ramirez and a year older at every position, then try to see if that same team can disappoint again? IT MAKES SENSE! Do what was done in the past and hope it gets a different result this time. What could go wrong?

In reality, the Dodgers were a team with flaws. They traded Dee Gordon at the peak of his value, needed more pitching and had too many outfielders. If Friedman had made no changes to the roster then Dilbeck would have written, "Friedman and his Geek Squad was supposed to come in and shake up the roster, but all he delivered was the same results as before." Then Dilbeck would have other derogatory comments about Friedman and how not changing the roster was a mistake. This is what happens when there are sportswriters who write with an agenda.

They want to shed some contract, they’d best do it while remembering their primary charge is to win now. And logic says, that should include Kemp.

Maybe, but logic also says to use a trade asset in a crowded outfield to improve other spots on the roster like shortstop and catcher that needed improving. The Dodgers essentially managed to trade Dee Gordon for a better second baseman. That's a move to win now.

And now here is Dilbeck's reaction to the Dodgers trading away Kemp. 

I'm going to miss Matt Kemp. That may come as a shock to many -- particularly Matt Kemp -- but in truth he became my favorite Dodger.

Kemp became Dilbeck's favorite Dodger just as soon as he learned Andrew Friedman was going to put Kemp on the trade block. A chance to criticize Friedman appeared and then Kemp became Dilbeck's favorite Dodger. Anything to criticize the Geek Squad.

Kemp could be self-centered, but mostly he was upbeat and like a happy kid in the clubhouse. Certainly he had his moments, but I would never describe him as some clubhouse cancer.

I am trying to think of another Dodger who is upbeat, self-centered and like a happy kid, but has been referred to as a clubhouse cancer. Hmmm...I can't think of his name.

Yeah, he enjoyed the spotlight. Loved the attention and celebrities and the whole glamour thing. That’s not the worst thing, though sometimes there seemed too much effort in looking cool on a play and not enough hustling his butt off.

But now the Dodgers have a cheaper, younger version of Kemp in the form of Yasiel Puig! It's a win for them.

He brought excitement to the plate, which is a rare quality these days, and one now missing from the Dodgers lineup.

Again, I would argue Puig brings this. I seem to recall a lot of excitement surrounding Puig when he is at the plate. This quality is still present in the Dodgers lineup.

In truth, Kemp had a problem with me. He refused to explain it. Maybe it was one too many snarky comments or he didn’t like my questions or that I had him second in the MVP voting in 2011 or he just didn’t understand the difference between straight newspaper reporting and the commentary awarded to a blog.

Well Steve, I'm just glad you were able to bring yourself into his story. It's important when reading your take on the Kemp trade that you become a part of the story.

I was not there, and players had nominated several scribes when Kemp announced he knew exactly who he would do a piece on, but struggled to come up with my name. My feelings have recovered. He described me as gray hair with glasses and slightly hefty. The scribes were throwing out various names when one finally said “Dilbeck” and Kemp lit up and said, “Yeah, that’s the one!”

To which my close Times comrade, peer and ex-friend, Dylan Hernandez, shouted: “Why didn’t you just say the old, fat (guy)?”

But see, Kemp didn’t go there. Even for a scribe he would just as soon see transferred to another beat, he could not bring himself to say anything derogatory. And so, he became my favorite Dodger.

So if anyone is ever wondering whether newspaper guys play favorites among players based on their relationship with these players, look no further. Matt Kemp didn't say something about Dilbeck that was derogatory, so regardless of Kemp's play on the field, Dilbeck was willing to overlook Kemp's injuries, slight pouting and mental errors to have his back when the evil Andrew Friedman traded Kemp.

Maybe Yasiel Puig should start to hate Steve Dilbeck, but then refuse to be derogatory behind Steve's back, and Dilbeck will love him forever because of this. 

In the short term, he will likely make the Dodgers pay for this trade. Down the road, maybe he physically breaks down again and the Dodgers look good for this odd deal.

For today, however, I am privately left without a favorite Dodger.

Well, the trade was about you and not the long-term well-being of the Dodgers, so feel free to rip into Andrew Friedman for it.

And six hours after posting this previous column, Dilbeck does just that.

Think the Dodgers have done a masterful job of shaking up a team that won 94 games last season? That the franchise's very own numbers crunchers have put together a team ready to take that step to the World Series?

We won't know until the season begins. You know, like happens every other MLB season.

Unsure, are you? Thinking it best not to be prematurely all judgmental? Have no fear, that’s what bloggers are for.

It's impossible to know how offseason moves will play out. What's ridiculous is Dilbeck isn't really evaluating the moves Andrew Friedman made, he is basically thinking of reasons to criticize Friedman because he doesn't like statistical evaluation of players.

I fear for their future.

But that happened the second the Dodgers hired Andrew Friedman, so it really means nothing.

There’s still another starting pitcher to nab and probably an Andre Ethier still to trade.

But the Dodgers' 2015 lineup appears pretty set and will probably look something like this:

Jimmy Rollins (shortstop), Carl Crawford (left), Yasiel Puig (right), Adrian Gonzalez (first), Howie Kendrick (second), Juan Uribe (third), Joc Pederson (center), Yasmani Grandal/A.J. Ellis (catcher).

That’s a very nice lineup. It just doesn’t look like a lineup for the most expensive team in baseball, 

And fuck winning a World Series title, the title of the most expensive team in baseball is what the Dodgers really need to win.

which is what the Dodgers will probably still be when all this is done.

That's a relief. I enjoy how Dilbeck seems to want the Dodgers to continue spending money, but he is upset that Friedman has spent money on Brandon McCarthy.

Are they better defensively with Rollins and Kendrick up the middle? Absolutely. Will they be improved in center with phenom Pederson, Crawford in left and Puig back in right? No question.

And they’d better be, because they are unlikely to score as many runs with Matt Kemp, Hanley Ramirez and Dee Gordon all gone.

Has Dilbeck seen Howie Kendrick and Jimmy Rollins play? Rollins and Kendrick drove in 130 runs and scored 163 runs last year. Hanley Ramirez and Dee Gordon drove in 105 runs and scored 156 runs last year. Matt Kemp scored 77 runs and drove in 89 runs. So the replacement(s) for Kemp would have to score 52 runs and drive in 82 runs in order to replace Kemp/Ramirez/Gordon's production. I think scoring the runs shouldn't be too difficult, but it will be hard to find 82 RBI's between Ethier and Pederson. Otherwise, it's not quite as bad as Dilbeck is trying to make it.

That’s all they could get for Kemp -- Grandal, right-hander Joe Wieland and another pitcher, possibly right-hander Zach Eflin? Plus, they threw in at least $30 million? A part-time catcher who was busted for steroids in 2012, a pitcher coming off two elbow surgeries (including Tommy John) and a prospect they are expected to send to Philly for Rollins?

Grandal was busted two years ago for steroids and his calling Grandal "part-time" is a bit misleading considering he had 377 at-bats last year for the Padres. The return for Kemp isn't massive, but the Padres are also covering about $75 million of Kemp's deal.

And that would be Rollins who has one-year left on his contract. Actually three-fourths of the Dodgers’ infield (Uribe, Kendrick, Rollins) will be on the last year of their deals. Plus, they’re all at least 31. What was this about getting younger?

Steve Dilbeck out of one side of his mouth: "Doesn't Andrew Friedman understand this team is built to win now? These trades don't accomplish that!"

Steve Dilbeck out of the other side of his mouth: "Aren't the Dodgers supposed to be getting younger? Why are they signing all of these veterans in order to win now?"

Can't have it both ways friend. You can't want the Dodgers to compete now while also complaining the team isn't getting younger. With the position the Dodgers are in, it's very hard to do both in one offseason.

Gordon was under their control for the next four years. Kendrick could be gone after next season and Rollins is expected to be a one-year stopgap until Corey Seager is ready. The Dodgers really have no in the system to replace Uribe or Kendrick.

And apparently they have no money either, so they couldn't re-sign either player? After all, Rollins' money is off their payroll next year and the Dodgers just opened up some money by trading Kemp that they could use to find a replacement for Uribe or Kendrick if they choose not to re-sign one or both. It's hilarious how short-sighted sportswriters get when they want to further their own agenda. Dilbeck is acting like trading Kemp didn't free up some money for the 2016 season and the Dodgers won't have the option of re-signing Uribe and/or Kendrick. 

They also signed Brandon McCarthy (10-15, 4.05 ERA, 1.28 WHIP last season, who may be an upgrade over Dan Haren (13-11, 4.02, 1.18), but not a $48-million upgrade. Yet the Dodgers wanted rid of Haren so badly, they sent $10 million along in the deal to cover his 2015 salary whether he retires or not (OK, so a $38-million upgrade)

And for him and Gordon, they got back prospect Andrew Heaney, reliever Chris Hatcher, utility man Enrique Hernandez, and minor league catcher Austin Barnes from the Marlins. I’m so underwhelmed. They’re all fine prospects, but only Heaney was highly regarded, and they flipped him for Kendrick.

It doesn't matter if Dilbeck is underwhelmed. I would bet he doesn't know much about these prospects the Dodgers received.

Hatcher is a 29 year old relief pitcher (which is an area of need for the Dodgers) who appeared in 58 games last year and had a 3.38 ERA and 1.196 WHIP.

Hernandez is a 23 year old utility player who combined for 98 games at AA and AAA last year with a line of .319/.372/.484 and 11 home runs. He walked 31 times and struck out 41 times.

Barnes is a 24 year old catcher, second baseman, third baseman who combined for 122 games at A+ and AA last year with a line of .304/.398/.472 and 13 home runs. He walked 69 times and struck out 61 times.

It seems like it's an underwhelming return for Dee Gordon but Hernandez and Barnes are versatile and can hit, while Hatcher seems to have pitched pretty well last year.

Today the Dodgers look improved defensively. But without a dramatic lineup. Guess all their drama was left in San Diego’s winter meetings.

And that's what it is really all about. Drama. We all know there's no way an MLB team can win the World Series without having a ton of powerful hitters up and down their lineup. Only really powerful teams can win the World Series.

I'd probably be more open to Dilbeck's criticism if he obviously didn't have an agenda against the members of the Dodgers organization he calls "The Geek Squad."