Showing posts with label quit misleading your readers. Show all posts
Showing posts with label quit misleading your readers. Show all posts

Friday, October 23, 2015

4 comments Gregg Participates in Using the Same Hyper Specificity of Numbers He Criticizes Others for Using

In the comments of the TMQ post for last week some of us were trying to guess what the topic would be for this week's TMQ. It's not hard to guess, since he essentially just rotates a few topics on a weekly basis. Yet, I was still wrong. I thought TMQ would be about concussions, since another high school football player died over the past week. I was wrong. Gregg has repeated a different topic in this TMQ. It's the annual, "Look at how many points are being scored" TMQ, followed by the later season "I can't believe the defenses caught up with the offense" TMQ. So Gregg (again) talks about how many points are being scored in college and NFL football these days. He talks about it on a smaller level every week, much like he talks about the same topics every week in TMQ, but this week he is writing more than a paragraph about how pass-wacky and points-crazy football has become.

The football scoreboard won’t stop spinning.

Says Gregg Easterbrook every single year in TMQ.

So far this season, N.F.L. games are averaging 46.6 total points. That’s up from 45.2 points per game in 2014 and 41.2 points per game a decade ago.

Gregg used to write an entire TMQ dedicated to hyper specificity and how numbers shouldn't be rounded out to too many decimal points. For example, he likes to mock the time difference in an athlete who runs a 4.39 and 4.32 40-yard dash. He'll often write things like, "How do they know the difference in 0.07 seconds?" or write something sarcastic about how the 40-yard dash should be 4.39614 seconds. Gregg also likes to make fun of statistics that might say an NBA team hits a three-point shot every possession, with him saying, "How do you go down the floor 0.6 times?" and believing himself to be the smartest and most clever human on the planet for being snarky about this.

Well, knowing that...I have to ask how the fuck an NFL game scan feature 46.6 points? Is there a 0.6 field goal or an extra 0.6 point that I'm not aware of? Are certain touchdowns only worth a percentage of 6 points?

This is typical Gregg Easterbrook. He goes to great lengths to criticize hyper specificity in the use of statistics, yet has no issue with using hyper specificity himself when using statistics. The "unsophisticated" will laugh at his jokes about an athlete running a 4.562874 second 40-yard dash, but he hopes they won't notice that Gregg uses the same types of statistics he likes to criticize in TMQ. Gregg is special, so he can talk about an NFL game featuring 46.6 total points, while mocking another writer for claiming an NBA team hits a three-point shot every 3.6 possession. The rules, as written by Gregg Easterbrook, do not apply to Gregg Easterbrook.

Big-time college football, where Baylor and West Virginia just combined for 100 points, spins the scoreboard faster: 27 Division I programs are averaging more points per game than the highest-scoring N.F.L. club, the Patriots at 36.6.

HOW CAN AN NFL TEAM SCORE 36.6 POINTS IN A GAME? I'M GREGG EASTERBROOK AND I LIKE TO CRITICIZE OTHERS FOR THE THINGS THAT I MYSELF DO. 

One-hundred twenty-four Division I programs — that’s 97 percent — are averaging more points per game than the lowest-scoring N.F.L. team, the 49ers. North Texas, Old Dominion, Vanderbilt, Army, the Roadrunners of the University of Texas at San Antonio: All score more than the Niners.

What a coincidence! 96.8%, make that 97%, of NFL teams are also scoring more points per game than the lowest scoring NFL team. That's so weird isn't it? It's almost like college teams score more points, but the percentage of teams that score more than the 49ers doesn't change regardless of whether that team is in the NFL or Division I NCAA.

You know Gregg didn't look up the percentage of NFL teams that score more than the 49ers and was very proud of himself when he saw the 97% number that showed how many Division I teams score more points than the lowest scoring NFL team. It means SO MUCH and proves how high-scoring college football is. He just forgot to look at the percentage of NFL teams who are also outscoring the 49ers. Whoops!

The fad for hurry-up tactics and rules changes designed to encourage pass completions are some of the reasons. But there’s an often overlooked factor: New safety rules favor offense.

This is literally one of the most cited reasons for why NFL offensive scoring is at an all-time high. Defensive players and other NFL analysts have stated over and over and over and over again that the NFL has taken steps to protect offensive players and it makes it more difficult for defensive players to do their job. Yes, the new rule changes to encourage completions are a reason for increased offense as well, but the fact the safety rules favor the offense is also often cited as a reason also. Perhaps Gregg believes if he just says this is an overlooked factor then it will suddenly become true and he won't be wrong. 

The most common deliberate helmet-to-helmet hit was by a safety against a receiver on a crossing pattern; a linebacker using his helmet as a weapon against a ball carrier was second-most common.

Now this form of contact is illegal, which benefits offense; especially, assisting the short-passing tactics that have proliferated.

Right. The short-passing tactics have proliferated because of the new rules. Hence, the new safety rules that favor the offense is not an overlooked factor in the increased offense. 

Sunday night at Indianapolis, the Patriots’ Julian Edelman repeatedly ran “low crossers,” short patterns directly in front of Tom Brady, who targeted 10 throws Edelman’s way.

One of the overlooked reasons why the Patriots are so good on offense is that Julian Edelman finds a way to get open on these short crossing patterns. No one ever thought of this before I broached this subject right now. 

Only once on these 10 targets was Edelman hit in the helmet. A decade ago, he would have absorbed several deliberate helmet-to-helmet impacts when prancing over the middle in this fashion; a generation ago, he would have been drilled in the head or the back even after an incompletion sailed past.

Right. NFL receivers aren't as afraid to run a route over the middle of the field, which means the middle of the field becomes more open in the passing game, which means there will be more scoring, which means offense will increase, and because this is the widely known result then the new safety rules that favor the offense is not overlooked. 

The rules need to become stricter still, especially at the high school level, where the most football is played.

But football’s safety initiatives are in almost every case a boon to the offense. Let the scoreboard spin!

But who knew the new safety rules were having such an effect on scoring? It's such an overlooked factor!

Sweet Play of the Week. Denver’s Aqib Talib sprinted 63 yards for an interception return touchdown at Cleveland, the Broncos’ third pick-six of the young season. Not only was the play sweet — the Broncos’ defense has allowed nine touchdowns while scoring four, a net of just five touchdowns for the opposition in six games. Denver’s No. 2 overall defensive ranking is the key to the Broncos’ 6-0 start.

Is this the highly-drafted, highly-paid glory boy Aqib Talib that returned this interception for a touchdown? Interesting how Gregg leaves off the draft position of Talib. We know Gregg wouldn't leave off the draft position of Talib or any of the other members of the Broncos defense if they were lowly-drafted or undrafted players. The Broncos defense starts four 1st round picks and a 2nd round pick, while having two 1st round picks as backups. Naturally, Gregg leaves out that the No. 2 overall defense in the NFL has six 1st round picks making a contribution to the team. 

Later in this TMQ, Gregg will mention the draft position of the Patriots offensive players, but when he doesn't have a point to prove about how great undrafted players are, then Gregg feels it isn't necessary to note the draft position of a team's offensive/defensive unit.

But Peyton Manning’s fade is accelerating. He has seven touchdown passes versus 10 interceptions, a ratio that is not sustainable.

No, this ratio is absolutely sustainable. The ratio isn't sustainable if the Broncos want to keep winning football games, but overall, this ratio of throwing more interceptions than touchdown is sustainable. Manning could keep doing this. 

He’s been “throwing with his body,” a bad sign.

Gregg must have read this somewhere and then repeated it here in order to make it seem like he knew what he was talking about. This is too much like analysis for me to believe Gregg thought of this himself. 

In overtime at Cleveland, Manning tossed the ball directly to the wonderfully named Browns linebacker Barkevious Mingo, as if Mingo were running the pattern.

And what round was Barkevious Mingo drafted in? The first round. This would be relevant if Mingo was undrafted or was considered "unwanted" by Gregg, but because he was drafted in the 1st round, Gregg fails to mention this little fact. Only undrafted players get their draft position noted, because Gregg wants his readers to believe undrafted players produce more than highly-drafted players produce.

Sour Recurring Play of the Week. A week ago versus Cincinnati, Seattle’s vaunted Legion of Boom secondary twice simply ignored a tight end running straight up the field, leaving him uncovered for a touchdown. Now it’s Seahawks 23, Panthers 20 with 36 seconds remaining, Carolina ball on the Seattle 26, Panthers out of timeouts. Carolina tight end Greg Olsen runs straight up the field, the “seam” route on which a good tight end is most dangerous.

This is the route in which a good tight end is most dangerous. Don't be confused when Gregg claims a good tight end is most dangerous when lined up to the far side of the field with single coverage on him. In that situation, a good tight end is most dangerous regardless of the route he runs. So whatever route that a good tight end runs from whatever position on/off the line of scrimmage that results in a touchdown is the route in which a good tight end is most dangerous. It changes based on what point Gregg is trying to prove at that very moment. 

No Seattle defender so much as attempted to cover Olsen, who caught the winning pass. The highly hyped Seattle secondary stars Richard Sherman and Earl Thomas were yelling and gesturing at each other about who was to blame before the play was even over.

I laugh a little bit at the Seahawks blaming coaching (and anyone but themselves) for the loss, but it seems there were two play calls given to the Seahawks defenders, so that's probably why Thomas and Sherman were gesturing to each other. The crowd noise prevented the Seahawks from getting the correct play call, so that's the reason for the confusion. One could ask how the Panthers got a play call in (late as it may be) and the Seahawks couldn't manage to do the same at home, but the truth is Thomas and Sherman were blaming each other because they didn't know at that point there had been two defensive plays called. So they really both believed the other screwed up.

This is a good example of what I've said on repeat, which is that defensive players can't just freelance like Gregg thinks they can. A defensive player can't just run back into zone coverage when the defensive called for is man coverage, despite what Gregg will claim when he criticizes a defender for not "covering" the offensive player. Gregg doesn't seem to understand defensive players have to all work in concert with each other based on the play call or else the defense will be extra shitty.

Stretching back to the Super Bowl, the Seahawks, whose trademark is monster defense, have been unable to hold fourth-quarter leads in five of their last seven outings. Since kickoff of the Super Bowl, Seattle is minus-48 points in the fourth quarter and overtime.

The Seahawks have been traditionally very good at holding leads late in the game, so sometimes the balance shifts back the other way. Perhaps that is what is being seen now. 

As for the Colts play — ye gods. Indianapolis lined up to punt, then nine guys shifted far wide in a variation of the swinging-gate PAT look. In the center of the field were the snapper and safety Colt Anderson.

Doesn't Gregg mean "undrafted, unwanted safety Colt Anderson"? I guess not. 

The whole point of a swinging gate is if the defense doesn’t put enough guys in front of the snapper, then run straight ahead; if the defense puts enough guys in front of the snapper, then pitch sideways where blockers exceed defenders. New England positioned four guys in front of the snapper, meaning one to block four. Yet the Colts chose the up-the-middle move: instant loss of yardage.

You just can't trust undrafted players to make smart decisions in important situations like this. Doesn't Gregg know this?

Not clear what, if anything, the Colts were thinking. Sour.

Griff Whalen went to Stanford and Colt Anderson went to Montana, so these players from non-football factories just don't know how to act in tough situations. It's not their fault, but if they were from football factory schools then they may have a better idea of how to think better in tight games against elite competition. 

Stats of the Week. The Panthers are on a 9-0 streak in the regular season.

I'm glad he clarified "regular season" or else everyone would have thought the Panthers won the Super Bowl last year. 

BOLO of the Week. All units, all units, be on the lookout for defensive lineman Marcell Dareus, accused of football grand larceny. Just before the season, he signed a contract with $60 million guaranteed; so far he has one sack.

A couple of things: 

1. Dareus does get sacks, but it's not his entire job as a DT or DE in a 3-4 defense. He does other things to earn his contract. 

2. Dareus states that he has been dropped back into coverage a lot and hasn't had the chances to get sacks. Whether it is true or not, I'm not sure, but it's hard to get sacks as a DT/DE if you are being dropped back into coverage rather than consistently rushing the quarterback.

What Makes Samuel L. Jackson and Cobie Smulders Hill Fly? The tiny drones that are driving everyone crazy can float on four downward-facing fans because their payloads, typically a camera and transmitter, weigh so little. In Marvel’s Avengers movies, S.H.I.E.L.D. has a flying aircraft carrier that uses four downward-facing fans. How big would the fans need to be to lift an actual aircraft carrier?

TMQ is shorter this year and Gregg still has to kill space. Unbelievably believable. 

Assume S.H.I.E.L.D. engineers used minimum-weight criteria to trim the helicarrier weight to 50,000 tons. Assume that the fans themselves have no mass, generate no drag, and that their power source is weightless — maybe they run on arc reactors. How big would four downward-facing fans need to be to lift 50,000 tons? Tweet your calculation to @EasterbrookG.

They would need to be as big as Gregg's ego multiplied by how many times Gregg has misled or lied to his readers. That's some big fans. 

Hire an Orangutan. Steve Spurrier just resigned as South Carolina coach: The boosters were in an uproar because the Gamecocks were 2-4. 

This is what I talk about when I say Gregg misleads his readers. The way Gregg writes this sentence indicates that Spurrier resigned because the boosters were in an uproar, when this isn't entirely the truth. Spurrier was 70 years old, so he wasn't going to be coaching for much longer anyway. I don't know, and Gregg doesn't know, if the boosters being in an uproar caused his resignation. Everything I've read says this isn't true, especially since Spurrier is one of the most successful coaches in South Carolina history. Gregg tries to tie the boosters in with Spurrier's resignation when I don't think this is the truth.

Steve Sarkisian just got the heave-ho at U.S.C.: He’d appeared in public seeming to be drunk, but the real issue may be that boosters were in an uproar over the Trojans merely being 12-6 with the whistle around his neck.

No Gregg, the real issue is that Steve Sarkisian has a really bad drinking problem and became an embarrassment to the university. So he got fired for bringing embarrassment to the school and now he is allowed time to face the severe drinking problem he seems to have. I really doubt USC fired Sarkisian because of his 12-6 more than they fired him because he seems to be an alcoholic. Also, "the real issue may be...," is some mealy-mouth language that Gregg would normally criticize when seen in the writing of others. 

These three coaching changes share in common what T.M.Q. calls the Orangutan Theory of Division 1: that football-factory programs have such incredible built-in advantages in recruiting power and gimmick schedules that an orangutan should be able to lead one to bowl eligibility.

Except it doesn't work that way at all. Before hiring Steve Spurrier, South Carolina had a problem keeping elite talent in state, had 10 winning seasons since 1980 and had won 10 games or more once in the history of the program. These so-called football factory teams have an advantage in money, but that doesn't always translate to success on the field without the right players and coach. 

Not only do the top recruits flock to prestige programs like South Carolina and U.S.C., but they also play under gimmick conditions...Such schedules are as if the Denver Broncos played twice as many games at home as away, and one of the home games was against an Arena League team.

Right, but if every NFL team played an Arena League team? Then the playing field would be somewhat leveled. I'm not defending how college teams schedule, but it's important to know that recruits don't just flock to a school. Elite recruits didn't flock to South Carolina before Steve Spurrier was there. Gregg remembers it that way now, because he's used to how things are with Steve Spurrier as the head coach, but it's not always been that way. 

In the wake of the Spurrier and Sarkisian departures, the sports world — “SportsCenter,” Sports Illustrated, ESPN’s “College GameDay” — wondered when glory would return to these programs. Unless I missed it, not a word was said about the educational goals that are the ostensible purpose of the universities in question.

That's because it is a show called "SportsCenter" and "College GameDay" and a magazine called "Sports Illustrated." If these shows were called "AcademicCenter" or "College Educational GoalsDay" or "Academics Illustrated" then Gregg would have a point. They aren't called that, so Gregg has no point. These shows and this magazine are about sports. For better or worse, discussing the academic goals of the university is not a part of the discussion. Sports are what the discussion on these shows and in this magazine revolves around. 

Spurrier’s team had a 51 percent graduation rate, including a 46 percent rate for African-Americans. He should have been given the boot for exploiting players without ensuring their educations: Instead all the boosters and the networks seemed to care about was his won-loss ratio. South Carolina is an SEC school. CBS has the contract for that conference, and benefits when the Gamecocks win. Where is the “60 Minutes” segment on SEC football graduation rates?

This 51% graduation rate and 46% graduation rate for African-Americans are irrelevant without knowing the five year graduation rate of the South Carolina student body and for African-Americans at the university. What if the five year graduation rate at South Carolina is 47% or the five year graduation rate of African-Americans is 37%? All of a sudden, 51% and 46% look pretty good for a graduation rate. Naturally, Gregg doesn't provide the five year graduation rate for South Carolina because either (a) he's not smart enough to realize it gives context to the point he wants to prove or (b) it would make his point about the graduation rate of football players under Steve Spurrier seem weak. Gregg is not above misleading his readers when faced with information he doesn't think proves what he wants to have proven.

Sarkisian’s team was graduating 47 percent of players, including 38 percent of African-Americans; Kiffin’s team had a 48 percent graduation rate, including 39 percent for African-American players. ESPN and Fox, which broadcast Pac-12 football, devoted lots of air time to the recruiting and ranking ramifications of the Kiffin and Sarkisian dismissals. Did either so much as mention graduation rates?

Again, without the context of the graduation rate for the student body as a whole, these numbers don't mean a hell of a lot. Also, ESPN and FOX broadcast Pac-12 football. They broadcast sports, so that's why they don't mention academics. Is this really such a difficult point to understand? 

And yet many big football programs exploit African-American football players for profit without giving them the level of support to get the bachelor’s degree that is most people’s ticket into the middle class, or even distract them from education by demanding all their time and effort go into football. In many cases the boosters and boards of trustees don’t care, and the sports broadcasting world, which takes a cut of the exploitation, stays silent.

Yes, that's how it works. Much like I criticize what Gregg writes in TMQ, while the company that takes a cut of the revenue TMQ brings in (haha...I can't imagine it does bring too much revenue in), stays silent on how Gregg will mislead his readers.

Throw to the Dancing Tree! This week’s favorite YouTube play is the Francis Owusu catch against U.C.L.A. The Bruins gained 505 yards on offense and lost by 21 points. Over in the Big Ten, Rutgers defeated Indiana, 55-52; the Hoosiers gained 627 yards and lost. Such stats are contemporary college football in a nutshell.

In the highlight video, check the dancing tree in the background. How come N.F.L. teams don’t have dancing trees?

Because no NFL team has a dancing tree as their mascot. That seems like the simplest and most correct answer. 

As part of the general conservatism of N.F.L. coaches, most rarely send an all-out rush against a punter. Often, only a few rushers make a halfhearted gesture. During the contested portion of the same game, New Orleans punted twice: Atlanta sent seven against one punt and five against the other. Viewers and spectators tend to yawn during N.F.L. punts. But watch the rush — it’s usually a token effort, and rarely an all-out attempt to block the kick.

NFL teams want to set up a return. That's what they want to do. When a team rushes at the punter in an attempt to block the punt then they run the risk of roughing the punter or running into the punter. Also, they can't set up a punt return if they try to block the punt, which is something a team likes to do in order to get better field position. 

On the final down of the Michigan State-Michigan game, the Spartans rushed 10. This might have made the punter, who dropped the snap, nervous. He might never have seen a 10-man rush. In standard-punt fashion, Michigan players brushed the defender in front of them, then headed downfield to cover the punt. As the kicker dropped the snap, there were three Wolverines trying to protect him from 10 Spartans.

This was a completely different situation because there was only 10 seconds left in the game and Michigan State had to block the punt in order to have a chance at winning the game. Setting up a return did not matter, because they were going to lose if they didn't block the punt. So comparing this situation to any other situation where there ISN'T 10 seconds left is to misunderstand situational strategy and why Michigan State sent 10 players to block the punt. Gregg consistently misunderstands situational strategy and how a strategy may be effective in one situation, but not in another situation. 

4th Down Bot Jumps Out of His Treads to Cheer for Michigan State. T.M.Q. feels the Spartans’ improbable last-play victory was the football gods rewarding Michigan State for going for it four times on fourth down. Though none of the tries succeeded, this was bold — and fortune favors the bold. 

Gregg is very tenuously trying to tie the Spartans going for it on fourth down four times with them winning the game. Of course, if the Spartans didn't block this punt (or cause the punter to fumble), then Gregg would have not mentioned at all how many times Michigan State went for it on fourth down because it would not have gone to prove his point. In a world where Michigan State doesn't win this game, but they went for it on fourth down four times, Gregg would simply leave out how many times they went for it on fourth down. Fortune didn't favor the bold and Gregg is full of shit by insisting this is always true. Instead, Gregg is full of shit because he insists that going for it on fourth down helped the Spartans win this football game. It was a fumbled punt that helped the Spartans win this football game.

Leading, 23-21, Michigan faced fourth-and-2 on the Michigan State 47 with 10 seconds remaining. Michigan Coach Jim Harbaugh called a timeout to weigh his options. The worst was the one Harbaugh chose, a standard punt with the blockers abandoning the punter to sprint downfield. Other options:

Michigan could have kept in 10 men to defend the punter, 

And then punted the football. Maybe Harbaugh was afraid Michigan State would get a good return and have a field goal opportunity. This was the best choice though. 

and instructed him to punt out of bounds. The Wolverines could have gone for it, and if failing to convert, defend a passing heave from midfield.

Okay, no. But even if Michigan had kept 50 guys back to defend the punter then there is a chance he still would have dropped the ball. Also, I'm not trusting a college punter to kick the ball out of bounds, nor am I going for it on fourth down and letting Michigan State have a chance for a heave from midfield. 

Michigan could have put 10 blockers around the quarterback and instructed him to hold the ball as long as possible, then hurl it high toward the Spartans’ end zone. The clock probably would have expired with the ball in the air.

Yes, but if the clock doesn't expire with the ball in the air then Michigan State is in perfect field goal range. There are so many things that could go wrong here. I'm not even sure how Michigan could have put 10 blockers around the quarterback and still snap the football. Wouldn't they need to have guys lined up on the line of scrimmage prior to the snap? So if a receiver or offensive lineman starts running back to defend the quarterback from pass rushers, there is a good chance a blitzing Michigan State linebacker or a corner could beat the Michigan player back before he got a chance to set up and defend the quarterback. 

And throwing the ball in the air with the hopes time expires while it's in the air and a Michigan State player doesn't catch it? What kind of bullshit is that? 

But the primary factor surely is that big-money coaches are conditioned to do the “safe” thing and send in the kicker. That way the players are blamed — today everyone blames the Michigan punter — rather than Harbaugh, who botched the call.

It sort of is the Michigan punter's fault. He had to catch the ball and then punt it. Somehow Gregg doesn't trust the Michigan punter to catch the ball and punt it, but he trusts the Michigan punter to kick the ball out of bounds and trusts the Michigan quarterback to run around and heave the ball up in the air as time expires. These are less "safe" things to do, so they are obviously better decisions. 

New England’s continuing offensive success — the Patriots are No. 1 in scoring, No. 2 in yards — comes despite the fact that the Patriots have no receiver drafted in the first round and, with tackle Nate Solder injured, no one on offense who was a first-round selection. If the M.V.P. vote were held today, T.M.Q.’s ballot would be cast for the Flying Elvii undrafted rookie free-agent center David Andrews.

And this would be ridiculous because David Andrews is the member of an offensive line that has five members who all work best in concert with each other, thereby making it difficult to know which of these offensive lineman is the best individually. There are ways to tell which offensive lineman is performing well, but we all know Gregg pays zero attention to these metrics. He sees Andrews is on a good offensive line and that he is undrafted, so thereby awards him the MVP. 

Manly Man Play of the Week. New Orleans leading Atlanta 17-7 in the third quarter, facing fourth-and-goal on the Falcons’ 2, the hosts go for it, touchdown, and never look back...To avoid criticism, N.F.L. coaches usually do the “safe” thing in this situation. Engaging a risk — a mild risk, considering — may have helped Sean Payton revive the Saints’ season.

Or it may not have helped Sean Payton revive the Saints' season. One thing is for sure, if the Saints season is revived then it has nothing to do with how the Saints are playing out on the football field, but has everything to do with the Saints going for it on fourth down here. Because fortune favors the bold, unless the Michigan punter doesn't drop the football against Michigan State, in which case fortune does not favor the bold. Naturally. 

Manly Man Postscript. The Colts tried everything they could to snap their losing streak versus New England — onside kick, fake punt, three fourth-down attempts. That this game was close, while other recent Indianapolis-Patriots contests have been blowouts, shows the value of aggressive tactics. New England is clearly the better team, but playing aggressive kept the Colts close.

This is how full of shit Gregg is. He claims fortune favors the bold. Fine, I like teams that take risks too, but Gregg wants his readers to believe if a team is bold then that team will win the game. This is how Gregg's mind works. BUT, because the Colts were bold and still didn't win the game and everybody who follows the NFL knows this, he makes up some bullshit about how the Colts ALMOST won the game because they were bold. So apparently this isn't really a loss for the Colts because they were bold. Fortune favored the bold and playing aggressive kept the Colts close, so it was almost like a win, thereby proving Gregg's point correct. Gregg is now so desperate he's trying to claim fortune favors the bold in simply keeping a football game close. Keep lowering that bar in order to prove your ridiculous black and white theories correct, Gregg.

By the way, a very reasonable argument can be made if the Colts had not been so bold in trying a fake punt then they could have come away having won this game.

In all N.F.L. annals, there have been 11 contests with at least 90 points scored, most recently Broncos 51, Cowboys 48 in 2013. Contrast that to Baylor, which since 2011 alone has appeared in 14 games in which at least 90 points were scored. The N.F.L.’s highest-scoring contest ever was Washington 72, Giants 41 in 1966. In the last five seasons, Baylor has played five games generating more points than that N.F.L. contest: West Virginia 70, Baylor 63 in 2012; Baylor 67, University of Washington 56 in 2011; Baylor 61, T.C.U. 58 in 2013; and Baylor 73, West Virginia 42 in 2013.

There are only so many ways of saying, "College football games have a lot of points scored in them," and I think Gregg has written some variation of them all at this point. 

Chip Kelly Skedaddle Watch. In September, T.M.Q. asked, “How long till Kelly skedaddles back to college?” With Kelly’s name raised in connection with the U.S.C. job — surely, not planted by his agent! — Kelly Skedaddle Watch becomes a running item.

Can it not become a running item? If Chip Kelly does fail in the NFL, the odds of him going back to college are very high. He has succeeded in college football before, so it's very natural he will end up back in college football at some point. Bill Walsh was very successful in the NFL before retiring and ending up back as the head coach of Stanford. So maybe Kelly fails in the NFL, or even succeeds, then he could still end up back coaching college football. Bill Walsh is a good example of this. Kelly going back to coaching college football after this time in Philadelphia is through means about as much as Gregg leaving an online sports site like ESPN.com for a newspaper like "The New York Times" would mean. I don't think Gregg considers himself to have skedaddled back to a newspaper gig. Of course, the rules Gregg has for others are not rules he has for himself.

Friday, October 16, 2015

7 comments Gregg Easterbrook Continues to Write Very Obvious Things And Tries To Pass It Off As Insight

Gregg Easterbrook warned of the dangers of gambling in last week's TMQ. But that's important right now. What is important is Gregg's picture is finally updated beside TMQ. In reaction to the furious response of zero readers besides me who complained, the "New York Times" has provided a picture of Gregg that isn't 20 years old. He looks...different than he did in his old picture. This week Gregg decides he is going to write something obvious and try to pass it off as an insightful comment. He writes TMQ this week based on the idea that defenses start comebacks and offenses stop comebacks. This is so shockingly obvious and is in no way insightful. Of course a team can't comeback until the other team stops scoring. It's like saying running faster wins a marathon while running slower loses a marathon. It blows my mind that Gregg really believes what he is writing is news of some sort. And yet, he does.

Cincinnati’s comeback against two-time Super Bowl entrant Seattle may prove the Bengals’ 2015 signature victory.

The Bengals probably really hope this isn't their signature victory of the season. It's Week 5 and they have a lot of important games to be played. And remember a couple of weeks ago when Gregg said this:

In a FanDuel television ad, a man — viewers have no idea whether he’s an actor — says to the camera, “Every single week I can win money on Fan Duel!” Can is quite a fudge word: Statements of this nature would not pass scrutiny in breakfast-cereal advertising.

Think about that when reading TMQ and reading all the declarative statements that Gregg tries to make using the word "may" or "could." This may or may not be the Bengals signature victory. Be sure to pay attention to TMQ until the end of the Bengals season when Gregg will either brag he was correct or ignore he said this entirely. 

The sports world praised the Cincinnati offense for scoring: “Dalton Leads Frenetic Comeback” read the Washington Post print edition headline. But the key to the comeback was the Cincinnati defense.

An iron law of the gridiron: Defense starts comebacks, offense stops them.

Everyone who reads this blog is smart. If you weren't smart, you wouldn't read what I write (ego alert). I don't have to explain the sheer stupidity of Gregg passing off this "iron law" to his readers as if it means something. It's impossible for a team to come back in a game if the other team continues scoring points. If not impossible, it's very, very hard. So yes, this is common sense and not a law. The fact Gregg constantly parrots this saying over and over shows how needy he is for fresh material in TMQ.

Of course the trailing team must post more points, but Step 1 of any comeback is to prevent the leading team from widening the margin.

No fucking shit? Are you sure about this? Are you sure if a team is down 34-10 then they need to stop the other team from scoring more points before they can make a comeback? Does this also mean before I can lose weight I have to stop eating 5000 calories a day? I need clarification. 

Seattle led, 24-7, at the beginning of the fourth quarter. Seahawks possession results from then on: punt, punt, punt, punt, punt. Strong defense by Cincinnati created the circumstance in which the offense could reassert itself.

Yes, they stopped the Seahawks from scoring. Defense will always start the comeback, because a comeback can't actually begin until the opposing team stops scoring points. Please stop and think about how obvious this is. 

Defense starts comebacks, offense stops them.

Continuing to write this over and over does not make it more insightful nor will it distract anyone from just how obvious this statement is. 

Consider January’s N.F.C. title game, Green Bay at Seattle. The Packers attained a 22-7 lead in the fourth quarter. Green Bay possession results from then on: punt, punt, field goal. From the juncture of the 22-7 lead, Green Bay gained just three first downs.

And if the Packers had three touchdowns on these three possessions then the Seahawks could not have come back and won the game. This isn't a law, it's common sense. 

Then two weeks later at the Super Bowl, Seattle led New England, 24-14, at the start of fourth quarter. Seahawks possession results from then till the double-whistle: three-and-out, three-and-out, interception. Defense sparked the New England rebound.

Because if the defense didn't spark the comeback and continued to give up points, it doesn't matter what the offense does. How many times have announcers said, "The defense has to make a stop here if Team X wants a chance to win this game"? Saying defense starts comebacks is not insightful. It's common sense. 

In the greatest comeback ever, the old Houston Oilers led the Buffalo Bills, 35-3, in the third quarter of a 1993 playoff game. The Bills put up a passel of touchdowns, but as important was that for the remainder of the contest, Houston scored just 3 points. Defense led the comeback.

It also helped that the offense put up 35 points in the second half. Without all those points, the defense could give up zero points in the second half and the Bills still would have lost. It's almost like a good offense and good defense go hand-in-hand or something. 

On the flip side, offense stops comebacks.

Oh my fucking goodness...yes, if one team scores 21 straight points and is down 3 points, but the other team scores a touchdown, then the comeback will be temporarily stopped. This is shockingly obvious and I'm not sure why Gregg's editor doesn't yell in his ear that his insight is actually just common sense. 

If way behind, focus on stopping the other side from advancing the ball. If way ahead, score again to ice the contest.

My head just exploded. Why does Gregg exist as a person writing TMQ? Why? So he is wasting his and our time telling us that if a team is losing, they want to stop the opposing team from scoring more points, while if a team is way ahead they should continue to try and score points. This is what he is doing. Apparently he thinks that TMQ readers need to be notified that NFL defenses should want to stop the other team from scoring and NFL offenses should want to try and score points. This is not news. It's not even close to news. It's obviousness wrapped up in the disguise of insight. 

The Patriots have won six straight versus Indianapolis. The last four meetings were blowouts, the Flying Elvii outscoring the Colts, 189-73. Andrew Luck is 0-4 versus New England, 37-16 versus all other teams. His shoulder hurting, Luck may or may not dress. Knowing who’s coming may tempt him to take an extra week off.

It may tempt him to take another week off or it may not tempt him to take another week off. Luck may or may not play. Speaking of comebacks, come back next week when Gregg criticizes other people for writing sentences that contain fudge words.

The primary reason the Patriots are dominating the Colts is that New England is the better team.

#analysis

"The primary reason the Yankees have won so many World Series is because they have better players and were better than the teams they were playing."

"The primary reason John Lennon hasn't put out any new material since 1980 is that he is dead."

This must be the "incredibly obvious statements" version of TMQ.

In two meetings with Indianapolis last season, discounting kneel-downs, New England rushed a total of 80 times, a high number for the New England offense, and threw short 53 times and long 12 times. Forty percent of Patriots’ passes were short to Tom Brady’s right. If in Sunday’s date at Indianapolis, New England rushes more than usual and throws short right repeatedly, expect the Colts to act surprised.

Or they can just act like it's not easy to just stop a team from running the ball out of sheer will. There is a difference in knowing a team is running the football and actually being able to stop that team from running the football.

Besides, what does Gregg want the Colts to do? If the Patriots split Gronkowski wide then he has to be double-covered, right? Gregg writes all the time how a team needs to cover a tight end split wide with two defenders, so it's not like the Colts can stack the box against the Patriots.

This is another great example of Gregg making rules and assertions that he eventually contradicts. Whatever ends up working for a team is the strategy that team should have used, while if a strategy didn't work then that team should not have used it. All of Gregg's criticisms are based entirely on outcomes. He wants the Colts to focus on stopping the run and throws to the right, all while double-covering Gronkowski if/when he is split out wide. He doesn't think about how these two positions can contradict each other, because all he cares about is seeing what didn't work for the Colts and independently suggesting a solution in a vacuum.

On “Monday Night Football,” an awful lot, in terms of action and of football logic, was packed into the final five seconds.

And if anyone knows anything about football logic, it's Gregg Easterbrook. 

The host Chargers leading by 3, Pittsburgh completed a pass to the San Diego 1, five seconds showing. First, San Diego safety Jahleel Addae delivered a vicious helmet-to-helmet hit on Steelers tight end Heath Miller, and officials flagged him for unnecessary roughness.

I think what Gregg means is that undrafted, hard-working free agent Jahleel Addae made a mental error when delivering a hit on highly-paid glory boy first round pick Heath Miller. Or is it that their draft positions aren't relevant because knowledge of the draft position of these two players doesn't go to prove a point that Gregg wants to prove? 

Second, rather than kick a field goal and proceed to overtime, the Steelers went for the win — and using a run. In the pass-wacky contemporary N.F.L., coaches throw too many passes from the 1-yard line — the Seahawks at the Super Bowl, for instance. In the last five seasons, N.F.L. teams scored touchdowns on 54 percent of rushes from the 1, versus on 50 percent of passes.

A 4% difference that is probably significant statistically, but isn't really significant in terms of whether a team will decide to throw or run the football into the end zone. An NFL team, and I know this is shocking because it goes against Gregg's rule of "always run the ball into the end zone," should play to their strengths when trying to score a touchdown from the 1-yard line.

A small difference to be sure — but at the 1, running the ball is playing the percentages.

It is playing the percentages, while ignoring the strengths/weaknesses of the team playing defense and ignoring the strengths/weaknesses of the team on offense. Decisions can't be made in a vacuum using easy to understand rules based on the percentages while ignoring the specific situation on the field. Percentages are great to run the ball until a team with a height advantage at receiver and a weak running game is going up against a team with a strong run defense on the 1-yard line. 

Third, Pittsburgh came out with Michael Vick in the huddle — then Vick flanked wide and Le’Veon Bell, a tailback, lined up behind center. Seeing this funky set, San Diego called a timeout. Surely, the Chargers thought, Pittsburgh will now change to a different look.

The Chargers called timeout, just like Gregg always wants a defense to do. This fixed everything, right? The defense called a timeout, as Gregg always suggests they should do in this situation, but that didn't work. What? How could this happen? 

After the timeout, the Steelers used reverse psychology and ran exactly the same play — “you must have suspected I would have known” — Bell rushing for the winning touchdown.

So the Chargers called a timeout in order to set up a defense against a different play than the one the Steelers would be running? This is what Gregg wants us to believe? The Chargers saw they didn't have the correct personnel on the field, called timeout, and then called a defensive play based on the Steelers changing their play to another play the Chargers didn't know if they would have the correct personnel to defend? This is Gregg's position. 

“Badger! Badger!” Trailing by 24-14, the Bengals reached the Seahawks’ 5 with 3 minutes 41 seconds remaining in regulation. Before starting the cadence, quarterback Andy Dalton shouted “badger!” ardently, while pointing to the far left of the Cincinnati formation, where the Bengals had a trips set of three receivers. In pass-wacky modern football, the defense was expecting a throw:

Another great example of how Gregg can read the minds of an entire defensive unit. It's a shame an NFL team hasn't scooped Gregg up yet to work in their front office, considering he is capable of knowing what an entire defensive unit is thinking on a given play. I would think Gregg's ability to come up with bullshit in order to prove his point would be beneficial to an NFL team. 

But Dalton didn’t want the visitors to realize what he was thinking. “Badger! Badger!” was a fake audible. Dalton appeared to be telling the three receivers on the left what he wanted them to do. Then Dalton went straight up the middle to score the touchdown that changed the complexion of the contest.

So let's follow this football logic. Dalton audibled using the word "Badger!" while pointing at his receivers. This made the defense think there was a pass coming. BUT, "Badger!" was a fake audible and Andy Dalton instead ran the original play call, which was a quarterback rush up the middle of the defense. This is what Gregg claims happened.

So we are to believe, because "Badger!" was a fake audible, the original play call from Hue Jackson was a quarterback sneak up the middle. This was the play being called and Dalton fake-audibled using "Badger!" to convince the defense that he was throwing the football. Again, Hue Jackson called a quarterback sneak up the middle. This is the play call Gregg wants us to believe and Dalton wasn't really calling an audible. Gregg doesn't think the original play call was a pass and Dalton saw the middle was open, then called an audible using the word "Badger!," a clever play on words for a quarterback run considering the Bengals were playing the Seahawks and Russell Wilson who played for the Wisconsin Badgers, thereby telling his receivers to run block. Gregg thinks the original play call was a run for Andy Dalton up the middle. That's what he is trying to bullshit his readers into believing.

Sour Play of the Week. Washington leading, 16-12, with 30 seconds remaining in regulation, Atlanta reached first-and-goal on the 6. Defensive ends want sacks — that’s the stat they are rewarded for at contract time. Offensive coordinators exploit defensive ends who gamble for sacks. At the snap, Washington defensive end Ryan Kerrigan sprinted straight up the field to try to sack Matt Ryan, totally giving up his contain.

Ryan Kerrigan is not a defensive end. He is a weakside linebacker. I know, these are just details that should in no way distract from the story. Ignore the facts that are incorrect and just assume the rest of the story is accurate.

Sweet ‘n’ Sour Matched Set of Plays. Game scoreless, Cincinnati had the ball on the Seattle 14. Seahawks strong safety Kam Chancellor lined up over Bengals tight end Tyler Eifert, who was in-line left. Usually the strong safety covers the tight end. When Eifert ran straight up the field to the end zone, Chancellor let him go by, neither jamming him nor attempting to cover him; Chancellor double-teamed a wide receiver going short. Uncovered touchdown for Eifert.

"Usually the strong safety covers the tight end." Sure, whatever works for Gregg to believe, regardless of whether this declarative statement is true or not.

Now it’s the fourth quarter, Seattle with a seemingly secure 24-7 lead. Cincinnati reached the Seattle 10. Same play call — Eifert in-line left, straight up the field — as when the Bengals were in this field position before. Same defense, Chancellor over Eifert. Same result as before: Chancellor ignored the Cincinnati tight end in order to double-team a wide receiver pulling up short. Same result, touchdown.

Check out the video at the 1:00 minute mark. Chancellor thought he had help from Cary Williams behind him and he did not double team the wide receiver going short. He was the only Seahawks player covering the Bengals player going short. If he had not covered the Bengals player running a route in front of the zone, and stayed on Eifert, then the Bengals player running short of the end zone could have walked into the end zone after catching a pass. 

While the attention goes to the schools that perform in prime time, it’s important to remember just how much college football is played. There are 128 Division I programs (the N.C.A.A. insists on calling Division I the Football Bowl Subdivision though this division now crowns a champion); Division I-AA has 125 member schools (the N.C.A.A. calls this the Football Championship Subdivision, though all subdivisions now have champions); there are 156 Division II football colleges (this is the level at which California of Pennsylvania and Indiana of Pennsylvania play); 241 colleges field Division III football teams; and 87 colleges participate in football through the N.A.I.A., an off-price generic version of the N.C.A.A.

It's always great when Gregg is around to help his readers understand things like this. Last week, Gregg watched out for the unsophisticated people who think FanDuel and DraftKings is an easy way to make fast money, and this week, Gregg is around to let his readers know that there are other football programs in the United States that aren't Division I programs. I know! Some of you may have gone to a college (like I did) that didn't have a Division I football program, but still had no idea that the football program at your school was not Division I. Gregg is here to enlighten you though, so worry no more.

That’s 737 college football teams: considering byes, around 350 college games per autumn weekend.

I think more than 37 teams have a bye during a given week during the season. If the football season is 14 weeks long, then this means only 518 of the 737 teams get a bye during the season. That seems a bit low. 

If you haven’t been to a small-college football game lately, try one. The level of play may surprise you, and unless it’s raining, the experience is likely to be pleasing.

Yes, I have tried it a few times before. It was okay, but it was nothing like a football game between two teams that are Division I football teams. 

Another reason the Colts appear doomed this coming Sunday: Under Bill Belichick, the Patriots are 46-16 in October.

I hope the Colts win just so Gregg has to talk his way out of essentially saying the Colts have no chance of winning this game. Yes, I'm sure that the Colts are doomed because traditionally Bill Belichick is strong in October. Tradition is what decides the outcome of a football game. Belichick has been with the Patriots for 16 years, so he loses one game every October. What if this is the game the Patriots lose in October? 

The Navy announced yet another delay in delivery of the Gerald R. Ford, lead ship in the next class of supercarriers. Once in service, the Ford will join these active supercarriers named for Republican presidents: the George H.W. Bush, the Eisenhower, the Lincoln, the Reagan and the Theodore Roosevelt, plus one supercarrier named for a Democratic president, the Truman. The second ship of the Ford class will be the John Kennedy. Still, that will be six Republican-named supercarriers, two named for Democrats.

There is a clear bias against Democrats when it comes to naming supercarriers after Presidents who were Democrats. Above all else, I think Congress should do an investigation into this. 

There’s a destroyer named jointly for Franklin and Eleanor Roosevelt. But there’s no supercarrier named for F.D.R. — longest-serving president, chief executive during World War II — and no ship named for that aspiring First Squire, William Jefferson Clinton. Gerald Ford was a fine man but never elected to national office; Clinton was twice chosen president by voters. Yet Ford’s name is on a supercarrier while Clinton’s name is nowhere to be found.

My God, the horror. To make matters worse, Bill Clinton left office 15 years ago and he doesn't have a supercarrier named after him, while Gerald Ford left office 41 years ago and is just now having a supercarrier named after him. I can't believe Clinton doesn't get a supercarrier named after him. WHY MUST THE WILL OF THE AMERICAN PEOPLE BE IGNORED?

BOLOs of the Week. All units, all units, be on the lookout for the Seattle Seahawks’ offensive line. Russell Wilson has been sacked 22 times, on a pace for 70 sacks. (Last season’s worst was 71 sacks allowed by Jacksonville.) Two weeks ago versus Detroit, offensive line malfunctions caused Seattle to face fourth-and-goal from the 33. Sunday, Wilson was sacked on third down before the punt that positioned Cincinnati to force overtime, then sacked again on third down before the punt that positioned Cincinnati to win.

As most people know, it's not just the offensive line that can be to blame for a quarterback getting sacked. Sometimes a quarterback holds the ball too long, lacks the pocket awareness to get rid of the football, or just moves in the wrong direction and takes a sack. Stafford and Wilson's offensive line may be terrible, but there is an occasion when the quarterback is at fault too. I wouldn't expect Gregg to understand any type of nuance or understand everything isn't black and white. 

Adventures in Officiating. Twice in the fourth quarter at Atlanta, the Potomac Drainage Basin Indigenous Persons ran hitch screens to wide receiver Jamison Crowder, once for a long gainer, once for a loss. On both plays, Washington offensive linemen ran downfield before the pass, no flag. Hitch screens — called “bubble” or “smoke” screens depending on the offense — have become so frequent that zebras seem to have lost focus on watching for linemen downfield.

Or the NFL has directed officials to not call a penalty for linemen blocking downfield so strictly in an effort to help offenses score points and generate excitement. In certain situations, the linemen can be downfield, such as when he is blocking a defensive player. I didn't see these plays, but given Gregg's history of not understanding what he's watching, I wouldn't be surprised if these linemen were blocking their man and therefore not subject to a penalty. 

Stop Me Before I Blitz Again! Cleveland facing third-and-5 on the Baltimore 18, the Ravens ran a “house” blitz — seven men rushing the passer. Baltimore didn’t need a sack, since Cleveland would have been in field-goal position anyway; what Baltimore needed was an incompletion. Highlight reels are loving the touchdown pass that tight end Gary Barnidge caught with his legs against this ill-advised all-out blitz.

Yes, this "ill-advised blitz" that had McCown throwing a prayer into the air off his back leg to a receiver who had to catch the pass with his ass in order to catch the touchdown. The blitz didn't work because McCown through up a prayer and Barnidge made a miraculous catch. That doesn't seem ill-advised to me. It seems it was a good play call that didn't work due to two great plays by the Browns. But again, Gregg bases his criticism on the outcome, so because the outcome was bad for the Ravens then Gregg thinks it was obviously a wrong play call. This despite the fact the play call had the quarterback throwing up a prayer and the receiver having to make an ass-catch.

I love how Gregg constantly assumes that a team can just rush four players at the quarterback and incompletion will result. Gregg doesn't understand the concept that rushing four players doesn't guarantee an incompletion because the quarterback could have more time to find an open receiver. He writes "what Baltimore needed was an incompletion" while criticizing the blitz, which is an obvious attempt to claim by not blitzing the Ravens would have had a better chance of getting an incompletion. This is not necessarily true.

Tennessee leading Buffalo, 13-7, in the fourth quarter, the Titans had the Bills facing third-and-23. Tennessee didn’t need a sack, just an incompletion. It’s a blitz! Tyrod Taylor runs for the first down and the hosts are not looking too gorgeous.

Hey look! Gregg is lying again! Notice that the Bills rushed four at Taylor with a linebacker as a spy. They did not blitz and Taylor made a fantastic run to get the first down. I don't know why Gregg insists on lying or maybe he just wants the Bills to have blitzed in order to make his point become true. Either way, the Bills rushed four and had a linebacker as a spy. Clearly Gregg is not astute enough to see the difference in a blitzer and a spying linebacker. 

The Booth Gods Chortled. Two weeks ago, Tuesday Morning Quarterback noted that network announcers criticize players (labor) but validate coaches (management) even when coaches are plainly wrong. Broncos leading the Raiders, 16-7, with six minutes remaining, Oakland lined up to punt. Down by more than a touchdown with six minutes remaining, why are the Raiders punting? “You have to punt it here and hope your defense can get a couple stops,” the CBS color man Trent Green said.

That's not at all how the play-by-play says this happened. I'm seeing Derek Carr got intercepted for a pick-six with 6:53 left in the game, then on their next possession, the Raiders ended up going for it on a fourth-and-19 that fell short. I don't at all see where the Raiders punted in this situation like Gregg claims the Raiders did. I don't know if I'm wrong or Gregg is making things up. He does have a tendency to make things up.

The Football Gods Winced. Hosting Indianapolis on prime-time television, Houston trailed, 10-0. The Moo Cows always roll over and play dead for the Colts. Houston entered the contest having lost five straight to Indianapolis; all-time, 4-22 versus the Colts. Facing third-and-1, Houston went empty backfield, telling the defense the play was all but certain to be a quarterback sneak.

"All but certain" to be a quarterback sneak. Granted, this was an awful QB sneak, but isn't it entirely possible, especially considering Gregg loves talking about how "pass-wacky" the NFL is, that the Texans were going to throw the ball here instead of running a sneak? Gregg likes to mention how teams go empty backfield on the 1-yard line and throw the ball, so why would it be "certain" the Texans are sneaking the ball here on third-and-1? 

Watt was held by the bedraggled Indianapolis offensive line to one QH — quarterback hurry — and two assisted tackles. No full tackle, sack or TFL — tackle for a loss. If you’re going to call out your own teammates, as Watt did after the loss, maybe you should perform first.

Watt has performed at a very high level for some time now. He was getting blocked by multiple Colts players. I'm not a big fan of J.J. Watt's personality, but he can play football, and he would perform better if a couple other defensive players could step up and prevent him from being double-teamed on every down. Again, I don't like Watt's personality, but it's hard to do much when the offense is able to key on you so much and prevent you from getting to the quarterback. Hence, that's why Watt would like the other Texans players to step up.

Other underwhelming Texans include Jadeveon Clowney, first overall choice of the 2014 draft, 

J.J. Watt is not underwhelming because he is being double and tripled-team. Stop being stupid. 

who was held by the bedraggled Colts line to a QH and a TFL but no sack. When Clowney, who’s been an athletic celebrity since high school, was chosen first that year and Khalil Mack, who received no football-factory recruiting offers out of high school, went fifth, yours truly wrote, “Don’t be surprised if over the next five years,” Mack outperforms Clowney. Hmmm — did not take five years, it’s happened already.

Oh Gregg, you don't even understand that which you write. You didn't write, "Don't be surprised if within the next five years Mack outperforms Clowney." You wrote (all while not putting the quotations around your entire quote), "Don't be surprised if OVER the next five years Mack outperforms Clowney." There is still more than three years left OVER this five year time period for Clowney to outperform Mack. You can't even understand what you are writing and what you meant when you wrote it. How do you even write a weekly NFL column?

Gregg is now attempting to mislead his readers based on something he personally wrote. He's misquoting himself essentially. 

As the Lions went down in flames to the Cardinals, Detroit set an N.F.L. record with 70 pass attempts. In the pros, a huge number of pass attempts usually coincides with a blowout loss; 

Please write "NFL."

A huge number of pass attempts usually coincides with a loss in the NFL, unless it doesn't, and then Gregg will talk about how the team passed the ball so much and the defense HAD to know that team was going to be passing a lot. So here is a rule that is a rule unless it isn't. 

in the N.C.A.A., it may coincide with victory.

Or it may not. Not that Gregg will use fudge words all the time when writing TMQ so that he can eventually weasel out of whatever he wrote. 

Boosters in an Uproar Because Priorities Not Misplaced Enough. The University of Maryland fired Coach Randy Edsall for the sin of failing to win enough. Maryland has been attempting to join the ranks of those major universities — including Alabama, Florida State, Ohio State and Oregon — making so much money on sports they don’t even bother to pretend that what’s happening is education. But with meh on-field performance and lots of empty seats, Maryland cleared a mere $6 million profit on football last year, versus $53 million in profit at Alabama and a $38 million profit at Oregon...So out the door Edsall goes.

Gregg does realize some of the money the football program brings in goes to fund other sports at a school, right? Maybe not a ton of money goes towards other sports, but some does. So when Maryland "only" makes $6 million in profits then that is money that can't be used for other sports and is money the university can't use for whatever the hell they want to use it for. And yes, Edsall was hired to win football games, as college football coaches are hired. So when he doesn't win games, he gets fired. If Gregg would stop pretending Division I football schools hire head coaches to help players get good grades in class then he may stop being baffled when a head coach gets fired for not winning enough games. They get paid to win. Sad, but true. 

Today’s Promo Code. When commenting on T.M.Q., use promo code DON’T PUNT.

I don't even understand if this is supposed to be funny or what. When commenting on TMQ, go ahead and point out where Gregg intentionally misleads his readers so that he will ignore he does this and continue to write TMQ like his shit don't stink. 

Friday, October 9, 2015

4 comments Gregg Easterbrook Warns of The Dangers of Gambling

Gregg Easterbrook talked about, stop me if you have heard this one before, how NFL coaches are too conservative and should go for it on fourth down in last week's TMQ. He also continued to write "N.F.L." because I know that he knows it annoys me. This week Gregg takes on fantasy football and alerts his readers to the fact these gambling sites are, and pleased don't be too shocked, not not-for-profit and they are probably going to end up taking your money. Apparently these Internet sites that feature fantasy football are actually businesses and it's set up to where suckers spend money on the sites, but don't end up winning money. I know, I was shocked after seeing the commercials that promised me I could make from $300 to $100 billion (okay, not that much) betting on fantasy sports. I thought these sites like DraftKings and FanDuel were only set up to make me rich. Thank God that Gregg is here to set the record straight.

A decade ago, I worked in a big building in downtown Washington. Every Thursday during N.F.L. season, a smiling guy would come around to distribute sheets for the office football pool. You’d make your picks, hand the guy $5 and not win. Neither would anyone else you knew.

Based on having read TMQ for a better part of a decade, I think a good guess as to why neither Gregg nor his co-workers won is because they are terrible at gambling and generally don't understand football. Also, if you know you are going to lose then why are you gambling? Don't complain if you kept handing the guy your money.

The next Thursday the guy would be back with another sheet. At the bottom was an entry for who, supposedly, won the previous week — but names at the bottom were always smudged and illegible.

Fool Gregg once, shame on you. Fool Gregg repeatedly over a several week span, just keep doing it since he's probably not going to catch on. But rest assured, when does catch on he will lecture his TMQ readers about the dangers of gambling as if they are as naive and gullible as he was.

After a while it dawned on me that I never met anyone in the building who received the pool money.

It took you a while to figure it out? This must have been a really big building with a lot of employees participating in this pool. Maybe I'm a control freak, but I don't tend to give money to "the guy" and I generally like to know the person who won the pool of money. This is especially true if I work in a huge building where I don't know very many of the other people who work in the building.

We all see where this story is going of course. Because Gregg, a person who considers himself to be very intelligent, got scammed by people pretending he can win money then that means people who are not as smart as Gregg are even more susceptible to the dangers of gambling. Gregg is SO SMART and everyone else is SO DUMB. They stand no chance.

I thought of the smiling guy Monday, when FanDuel and DraftKings defended their integrity after accusations of what amounts to insider trading. I always wondered if that office pool could be trusted. Perhaps now we should wonder the same about DraftKings and FanDuel.

No, it can't totally be trusted. It's not a charity. It's an opportunity to separate you from your money and put your money in the pocket of someone else. It's gambling where the company accepting the money is making money. Hence, more people will lose than win. It's like any other gambling venture. There's no mystery behind it. They want to lure you in with the prospect of making money when most people don't make money.

NFL Network’s highlights channel is now “N.F.L. RedZone Presented by DraftKings.” ESPN’s “Monday Night Football” now has a “FanDuel Chalk Talk” segment.

This season, fans can sip cocktails and place wagers at FanDuel or DraftKings lounges in pro football stadiums.

It's shocking that the NFL has partnered with two companies willing to give them money in order to advertise their product, which is a product based on the performance of NFL players. How dare the NFL promote gambling for money. I'm shocked they would do this. Usually the NFL is so sure to stay on the morally correct side of social issues. 

As of Sunday, Aaron Rodgers, Andrew Luck and Peyton Manning were, in a sense, endorsing Internet gambling: DraftKings just signed a deal with the N.F.L. Players Association, giving the union a fee in return for use of pro football players’ images in the company’s ads. Washington-area Metro buses now bear DraftKings side banners.

These players are not endorsing gambling. The NFLPA is endorsing gambling and these three players are simply members of the NFLPA. I guess Rodgers, Luck and Manning could choose not to be a member of the NFLPA as a result, but I'm sure their image has been used for reasons much more nefarious than Internet gambling. These three quarterbacks are, in a sense, endorsing Internet gambling in the same way that Gregg Easterbrook is, in a sense, endorsing plagiarism because he works at the same newspaper that Jayson Blair worked for. These three quarterbacks are, in a sense, endorsing Internet gambling in the same way that Gregg Easterbrook supports women bringing spousal abuse on themselves because he used to work at ESPN with Stephen A. Smith. 

Both ventures have extensive Fortune 500 support: back to that in a moment. First, the glitz. FanDuel: “$75 million paid out every week!” DraftKings: “$1 billion in prizes in 2015!” FanDuel vows to distribute $2 billion in winnings during the N.F.L. season; DraftKings vows a weekly $1 million grand prize.

Promises of big winnings made in order to draw more people in to get more people to get involved with weekly fantasy sports. DraftKings and FanDuel aren't charities, so any reasonable person knows they are making money in the same way a casino makes money. Somebody has to lose. 

In a FanDuel television ad, a man — viewers have no idea whether he’s an actor — says to the camera, “Every single week I can win money on Fan Duel!” Can is quite a fudge word: Statements of this nature would not pass scrutiny in breakfast-cereal advertising.

But the use of the word "can" would pass scrutiny in TMQ, because Peter uses some form of this word all the time in order to fudge the truth just a little bit. How many times has Gregg written something like, "Continued use of punting on fourth down could result in the Football Gods being angered and Team X not making the playoffs."

Of all the people to criticize the use of words like "can" or "could" it's Gregg Easterbrook who chooses to do so. He very well could be a bit of a hypocrite, given how many qualifying statements he has made in his TMQ in the past, present and could be future.

I asked both companies for the names of big winners. Sabrina Macias, head of corporate communications for DraftKings, suggested David Gomes, a 2014 big winner; it’s him celebrating in the DraftKings ad. When I asked for more names, Macias said, “We have had 20 winners of $1 million prizes.” She promised to get back to me with a list of those names, and never did.

Emily Bass, public relations manager for FanDuel, suggested Scott Hanson, “Scott H.,” a 2014 big winner. When I asked for more names, Bass said her company has “a huge number” of big winners. She promised to get back to me with a list of names, and never did.

There is also a sense of privacy in whose information FanDuel and DraftKings can just hand out to whoever asks for it. Gregg knows this of course, but doesn't seem to really give a shit. The fact these two companies won't just hand out a person's information is seen as another strike against their transparency and not as an example of how they are committed to keeping the information of those who participate confidential. It can be both of course. Both companies can lack transparency and still protect the identity of those who play online fantasy sports. 

Naturally, many who win lawfully at gambling would prefer their identities not be disseminated.

Naturally, many people who win or lose at gambling would prefer their identities not be disseminated. Naturally, people don't want some half-assed football journalist finding out how much they have won or lost on gambling. 

Thus neither company offers anything, beyond its say-so, backing up the advertising. What about the experiences of David Gomes and Scott Hanson?

I mean, this is pretty much how gambling works. I don't know if I could find out everyone who won money in the North Carolina State Lottery or go to a casino in Las Vegas and get a list of people who won $1 million or more over the last 12 months. Maybe I could, but my expectation would be that I could not. 

Gomes, 25, grew up in Boston, is studying to be a physician assistant, and reports that he wisely saved the after-tax portion of his $1 million prize. His big payday came last season, from selecting New England’s Jonas Gray for a fantasy team days before the undrafted free agent ran for a surprising 201 yards and four touchdowns against Indianapolis.

Then he ran for 210 yards and 1 touchdown over the rest of the season. But Gomes will insist this was NOT luck. Not at all. It's his discerning eye that helped him win $1 million. 

“Sure there was luck involved, but this wasn’t just a wild guess,” Gomes said. “Gray caught my eye in training camp, and the Colts were weak against the rush in 2014. So it was a calculated risk.

Gray "caught his eye" in training camp and then I'm sure Gomes was more impressed by Gray's performance on the practice squad. It may not have been a wild guess, but Gray had a grand total of 32 carries prior to the Colts game. So there was more than "some" luck involved if we are being honest. 

With online fantasy sports, yes it’s gambling, but you watch the games and know for sure whether your choices were good or not. This is more honest to the public than lotteries based on random numbers.”

As much as I abhor the FanDuel and DraftKings advertising that is everywhere, I can agree with this to an extent. I see where a person could believe this to be true, because it feels like you have more control when you choose specific players to play each week. Compared to choosing numbers in a lottery, it feels like you choose players who you can then follow and grade yourself on how you did. The issue comes in when a person doesn't know what players the other competitors have chosen. So online fantasy sports is more honest in that it's more transparent on how your team is graded, but it's not transparent when it comes to the players the other competitors chose. It's gambling. The house always wins.

Hanson lives in Pasadena, Calif., was an elementary schoolteacher for a while, worked as a sports analyst for the analytics website ProFootballFocus, and this year is playing daily fantasy sports full-time. Hanson’s insight late in the 2014 season was to select little-known Cincinnati tailback Jeremy Hill when the Bengals were facing the Browns and the erratic rookie quarterback Johnny Manziel.

"Little known Cincinnati Jeremy Hill." Jeremy Hill was a second round pick by the Bengals and was considered to be a sleeper in 2014 fantasy sports or a great handcuff for Gio Bernard. He wasn't really "little known." He was known and drafted in any fantasy league deeper than 8 teams with 2 RB's and 3 FLEX spots. But whatever, Gregg. Whatever.

“FanDuel and DraftKings are more like stock investing than you’d probably expect, including the need to diversify,” Hanson said. “Don’t wager a lot unless you really know what you are doing. If you’re just in it for some fun, don’t spend more than $20.”

Hey, there is some fucking logic. If you don't want to lose a lot of money, don't gamble. Therein lies the moral to this story, except that won't cover enough column space, even in a much smaller TMQ. So Gregg has to go on and on about how online fantasy sports (which I don't play and won't be playing because I like my money) take money away from people while misleading them into believing they have a chance to win. A fool and his money soon go separate ways, so yes, they do take money from players, but those playing know the risks. Don't bet a lot of money if you don't want to lose a lot of money. 

Gomes and Hanson converted their smarts into winnings — though both say they are down so far this season.

The. House. Always. Wins. Always. 

FanDuel and DraftKings are run by plucky entrepreneurs, the type of people society rightly admires. On the flip side, both enterprises are using national television, and the imprimatur of the highly subsidized N.F.L., to make incredible promises while leaving the public no way of knowing whether the claims are true — and while tempting the unsophisticated to throw their money out the window.

Ah yes, "the unsophisticated." That's all Gregg is doing. He's looking out for those who can't look out for themselves. I understand in part. People look at those ads and think, "I can win money TOO! I can be a millionaire and all I have to do is play!" These people are either idiots or degenerate gamblers. If they are idiots, there is no helping them and they will most likely walk out into traffic or do something stupid to permanently end their stupidity. If they are degenerate gamblers then their loved ones need to find them some help. Why is it Gregg's business or concern these people spend their money gambling? 

These ads will always make it seem like more people win than actually do. I'm not a smart person, but I know there will always be 2-3 examples of winners in the commercials, as opposed to the 1000-2000 examples of the losers, because FanDuel and DraftKings want to make money. People participate if they think they are going to win. People who think they are going to win at gambling are most likely wrong. That is why I don't gamble. Even those who do gamble probably know they won't win every time. I know Gregg is deeply worried about society and "the unsophisticated" but even many of the unsophisticated know they aren't going to always win.

David Brooks contends that most gambling targets those who can’t afford to lose. Neil Irwin of The Upshot, in contrast, thinks that legalizing wagering on point spreads would improve the situation for small-money players.

The business model of FanDuel and DraftKings — and others entering the market — makes sense only if most players lose money.

This is logical because the money that needs to be handed out has to come from the losers. These winners are also "the unsophisticated," which further encourages other unsophisticated people to participate because Bill down the street doesn't know shit about fantasy sports and he won $1500 last week. It's been this way for years and there is probably no changing it. 

DraftKings and FanDuel seduce men and women into a dream of instant wealth. A handful do achieve instant wealth; for most, this dream only worsens inequality. And should the N.F.L., which draws about $1 billion annually in taxpayers’ money, be encouraging average people to gamble even more — that is, to lose even more?

They encourage average people to spend $100 on a uniform, have them spend $7 on a bottle water, $5 for nachos and as much as humanly possible in order to get a ticket to a football game for the privilege of spending $7 on a bottled water, so why wouldn't they encourage average people to gamble more? I'm sure that's their point of view. It's a good way to gain synergy between fantasy sports and the NFL. Fans bet on NFL players and have the chance to win money.

I'm not defending FanDuel and DraftKings, but many, many people go to Las Vegas or Atlantic City every year to gamble and end up losing money. If the NFL feels it is morally correct to be involved with online fantasy sports then that is the decision of the league. It's not less morally incorrect than for the NFL to have an official beer or for Joe Girardi to talk about C.C. Sabathia going to rehab in front of a Budweiser sign. Gregg is under the assumption that anyone who participates in online fantasy sports are stupid and have no idea what they are getting themselves into. I know people who do online fantasy sports and they aren't all stupid. They know they probably won't win, but do it for the fun they can have. Maybe they win money, maybe they won't.

Professional sports leagues like the N.B.A. and M.L.B., and individual N.F.L. teams including the Cowboys seem to see a chance to seize the vigorish now collected by bookies and Las Vegas.

It annoys the shit out of me how Gregg puts periods between "N" "F" and "L" and between "M" "L" and "B." I will try to re-focus though. 

“Just pick your game, pick your team and pick up your winnings,” a DraftKings ad declares. 

Anyone with a brain knows it's not that easy. Just in the same way anyone with a brain knows that delicious cheeseburger the model is biting into in the Hardees commercials doesn't come with the model and the burger will be flattened to the point it's almost impossible to tell all the ingredients apart. Just in the same way a child knows if they buy Frosted Flakes, Tony the Tiger isn't actually going to show up and start playing soccer with him/her. It's advertising that is being used to encourage the purchase of a product. Much in the same way Gregg doesn't understand advertising for a Christmas stage show in November isn't "creep," but is instead an attempt to sell tickets far advance in the hopes of selling out, he doesn't understand that many "unsophisticated" people understand how advertising works. Yet, they still participate in online fantasy sports because it is fun.

But set the phoniness aside: DraftKings and FanDuel wouldn’t make business sense to Comcast, Fox, Google, Time Warner and pro sports owners unless the websites allow participants quickly and conveniently to use their smartphones to lose money.

Right, nobody wants to play any online fantasy sport "for fun" and it should be a huge pain in the ass to play that online fantasy sport. Because these online fantasy sports are for fun, using the sites is made convenient so it's more fun and less frustrating. 

In other football news, what to make of the 4-0 contenders?

If only the NFL season didn't stop after Week 4 with no resolution as to which of these 4-0 contenders will stand the test of the season and which will not. Alas, Gregg is only left to speculate.

Cincinnati is playing really well, and on a 16-2-1 home streak in the regular season. But the Bengals are also on an 0-3 playoff home streak; Andy Dalton has never quarterbacked a playoff win; and Marvin Lewis is 0-6 in the postseason. The last time Cincinnati was victorious in the playoffs, Dan Quayle was vice president. Bengals, call back when you win a contest in January.

So what to make of the Bengals is that Gregg has absolutely no fucking clue what to make of the Bengals and he's going to need to see the rest of the NFL season before he can declare the Bengals as pretenders or contenders. Why even bring up the Bengals if Gregg isn't willing to give his opinion on what to make of them? Though, this is in-line with how Gregg pretty much evaluates anything. He waits until there is resolution and then declares something as being a good or bad idea. He'll make up lies about the reasons why it was good or bad at that point.

"I know I say teams should go for it on fourth down because it shows a commitment to winning, but here is why this fourth down attempt didn't end up helping Team X win the game."

Carolina, a losing team in 2014, is 4-0 so far in 2015. But the victories are over second-echelon teams that are a combined 4-12. Panthers, call back when you beat a winning team.

I can agree with this, but these teams would have been 8-8 if the Panthers had lost to them. There is such a small sample size that the Panthers beating these four teams skews the combined record of the teams they have beaten. 

Atlanta has a signature victory at Dallas, a much-improved offensive line and a much-improved defense. Falcons faithful should be guardedly optimistic.

The Falcons have beaten four teams who are a combined 6-10. So I guess those two extra victories are really, really impressive to Gregg to where the Falcons haven't played a second-echelon schedule. 

Denver began in plodding fashion; Peyton Manning now seems to be picking up the bootleg offense of Gary Kubiak. Below the radar: The Broncos’ secondary has allowed only two touchdown passes.

Yes, "below the radar" the Broncos defense is playing really, really well. NOBODY IS NOTICING THIS EXCEPT FOR GREGG! DON'T DO A GOOGLE SEARCH FOR "DENVER BRONCOS DEFENSE" AND JUST TRUST GREGG'S WORD IS TRUTH!

Stat That Must Mean Something. Only three of the N.F.L.’s top 10 rushing teams have winning records.

It could mean four of these teams have quarterbacks who are known for running with the football. It could mean only two of the NFL's worst 10 rushing teams have winning records, which is some research that Gregg is lazy to do. It could mean a balanced offense is a great way to win games. 

’Tis Better to Have Rushed and Lost Than Never to Have Rushed at All. Trailing Indianapolis, 3-0, the Jaguars faced third-and-goal on the Colts’ 2 and went incompletion, field goal. Jacksonville entered having lost five straight to Indianapolis — half-measures won’t change that! The Jaguars went on to lose in overtime.

And of course they went on to lose in overtime because of this one play where the Jaguars went for a field goal as opposed to a touchdown. There is an obvious correlation there. They averaged 5.1 yards per rush on the day, so the Jaguars would have run the ball in the end zone with 3.1 yards to spare from the two-yard line. So ignore the fact the Jaguars kicker missed two field goals in the game, that's irrelevant to whether they would have won the game, but focus instead on their decision to go for a field goal instead of a touchdown. THAT is why the Jaguars didn't beat the Colts. 

Stop Me Before I Blitz Again! Steelers leading, 20-17, with 29 seconds showing, Baltimore faced third-and-10 on its 48. Getting a sack is a nice outcome for Pittsburgh, but what matters more is two incomplete passes. Instead it’s a double defensive back blitz: 20-yard completion, Baltimore kicks a field goal to force overtime and wins in the fifth quarter. Good quarterbacks want to be blitzed on third-and-long, because it ensures single-coverage downfield.

And if the Steelers just rush four and give Joe Flacco time to throw the ball, there is no way he completes a pass to get them into field goal range. That's what Gregg wants his readers to believe. This is the assumption Gregg is working under. Also, I don't know if there is such a thing as a "double defensive back blitz." Maybe there is, it sounds like it was a corner and/or safety blitz. 
And no, blitzing on third-and-long doesn't ensure single-coverage downfield. The Steelers could blitz six defenders and then still have the receivers downfield doubled with a safety/linebacker and a cornerback. It's entirely possible. But of course Gregg makes these blanket statements and just expects his readers to believe them. Why wouldn't they? He only speaks the truth.

Stop Me Before I Blitz Again! (Team Edition). Last season the Bills employed a highly disciplined defense that almost never blitzed, and finished fourth over all on defense against points, first against touchdown passes. The analytical Jim Schwartz ran this successful defense. In comes the boastful Rex Ryan with a blitz-happy approach and no discipline. The Bills have dropped to 22nd over all on defense and 30th against touchdown passes.

Could this be as a result of the Bills having played the Patriots, Giants, Colts, and Dolphins? The Patriots are #1 in the NFL in passing yards right now. Also, Gregg is cherry-picking his data. The Bills' defense is 3rd in rushing yards against, 14th in points per game allowed and 9th in third down percentage against. 

Facing fourth-and-1, the Bills lined up to go for it. Tyrod Taylor tried a hard count to draw the Giants offside. The Bills jumped offside.

No Gregg, when the offense jumps like this it is called a "false start." The defense is who goes offsides, not the offense. 

Didn’t You Used to Be the 49ers? After the 2011, 2012 and 2013 seasons, the 49ers made the N.F.C. title game, once reaching the Super Bowl and goal-to-go for victory. In 2014 they tailed off, and in 2015 are awful. Santa Clara has been outscored by a league-worst 62 points.

I'm sure Gregg believes this is all because they moved to that new stadium in Santa Clara and not because they fired Jim Harbaugh. What would getting rid of the best coach the 49ers had in 20 years have anything to do with the 49ers current struggles? 

Dawn of the Notcronym. Last week I noted that KFC no longer stands for Kentucky Fried Chicken, and NPR no longer stands for National Public Radio: “Contemporary short-attention-span names like KFC are not acronyms, because the letters don’t stand for anything. We live in an age when not standing for anything is seen as a plus.” Then I asked readers what term should be used for constructions such as SAT or 3M, which appear to be acronyms but aren’t because they do not represent words.

One would think now that TMQ has been shortened then Gregg could cut any content that doesn't have to do with football or the NFL. Instead, TMQ can still be found to have the same filler. 

Jeff Wilson of Front Royal, Va., proposed noncronym. Ross Stinemetz of Kansas City, Mo., suggested slackronym. Morris Bird of San Gabriel, Calif., came up with noniker. Jeff Williams of Wisconsin Rapids, Wis., suggested jargonon.

I suggest these people get a life and stop emailing their ideas to Gregg Easterbrook. 

Jim Kelly of Ann Arbor, Mich., wrote: “Perhaps we can call them Trumans in honor of our 33rd president, whose middle name, S, was simply a letter, signifying nothing.”

Or you could just not talk about these acronyms that don't mean anything at all and focus on writing about football so I can make fun of the fact you think you are know what you are talking when you really don't.

Chip Kelly Skedaddle Watch. Chip Kelly lived a dreamlike existence in Eugene, Ore., a glorious place where he was revered by students, alumni and local media, and won game after game by huge margins. In the N.F.L., Kelly’s Eagles (1-3) are struggling, and the media knives soon will be pointed at his back.

"Soon" be pointed at Chip Kelly's back? Where the fuck has Gregg Easterbrook been over the past two weeks? The knives have been sharpened and pointed already. The media is just waiting to pounce. It sounds like Gregg lives his own dreamlike existence if he doesn't know that the media is already all over Chip Kelly for the Eagles' failings.

When Kelly came to the N.F.L., he was one step ahead of the posse that imposed a show-cause penalty on him for recruiting violations. But that punishment has expired. How long till Kelly skedaddles back to the comfort of a football-factory situation?

Kelly coaches for football-factories until it is convenient for Gregg to point out that offensive innovations don't occur at football-factories, while citing Chip Kelly's innovations at the non-football-factory University of New Hampshire as evidence of this. Kelly coaches at football-factories until Gregg has a different point to prove. 
And Kelly probably will go back to college football if he fails in the NFL, just in the same way TMQ went back to another non-sports website after Gregg didn't have his contract renewed by ESPN. It's okay for Gregg to fall back on what he knows when he fails, but when Chip Kelly does that then it means he is open to derision from Gregg.

Steelers and Ravens Combine to Go 1 for 6 on Fourth Down. 

So based on the knowledge Gregg has previously passed on, this means that both teams won the game because both coaches showed their team that they were super-serious about winning the game? Right, that's how it works? 

Baltimore at Pittsburgh was Armageddon for the go-for-it crowd, which includes this column: In overtime Pittsburgh went for it twice on fourth-and-short, was stopped both times, and lost.

But I'm sure Gregg has a bullshit explanation for why Mike Tomlin was aggressive and told his team he was playing to win the game and the Steelers still lost. Even when Gregg's assertions are proven to be incorrect, it's never that his assertion is incorrect, there is always a bullshit reason given as to why his assertion is correct all the time but just not this time. 

Then again Baltimore went for it twice on fourth-and-short, was stopped both times, and won. On a windy night at Heinz Field, the toughest N.F.L. stadium for place-kickers, both defenses expected fourth-and-short tries and were primed to stop them.

Oh, okay. So the defenses were primed to stop the running game on fourth down and THAT is why these conversions didn't work? I figured there was a bullshit reason, but now I know that reason. The Ravens averaged 4.9 yards per carry and Steelers averaged 5.1 yards per carry on the night. So why weren't the defenses primed to stop the run for the rest of the game and primed up only on short down situations where the wind wouldn't be as much of a factor due to the increased odds of the Ravens throwing a short pass? I only ask because if the reason these conversions didn't work is because both teams were primed to stop the run, it certainly doesn't show in the box score. A short passing play on fourth-and-short is more likely than a long passing play, due to the small amount of yardage needed, and a short passing play wouldn't be affected by the wind. So neither defense was primed to stop the run on the night, except in situations when a short passing play to get the first down was more likely? That's your bullshit reasoning?

Or maybe Pittsburgh’s problem is that it did not go for it enough! Here is the 4th Down Bot’s live analysis of why the Steelers should have gone for it on fourth-and-2 in the first quarter, rather than settling for a field-goal attempt.

Oh good, more bullshit. It turns out there are a specific number of fourth down attempts required for a team to be sufficiently inspired to win the game. I never knew this, mostly because Gregg has not mentioned it until now. 

Buffalo opened with three of four at home, badly needing to finish the first month at least 3-1. Come November, the Bills face a grueling five of six on the road. By Thanksgiving, Rex Ryan may have moved on to boasting about the 2016 season.

Gregg is fixated with coaches who have confidence and I'm not sure why. Rex Ryan likes to boast, but it's just part of how he runs his team. He likes building confidence. 

Red Planet Note. The hit movie “The Martian” is causing commentators to wonder why there are no Mars missions in the planning stage. The NASA administrator Charles Bolden maintains people will stand on Mars in around 20 years. That’s like saying “By the 2030s, Congress will enact the annual budget bills on time.”

The spacecraft would weigh 4,000 tons at departure from low-Earth orbit. The cost of placing 4,000 tons into orbit would be about $1 trillion. That’s just delivery cost: spacecraft extra. Until such time as there may be the propulsion breakthrough, Mars-mission talk is political blather.

It was speculated last week in the comments that the "Times" insisted Gregg leave out political and non-football-related topics. Well, I guess not. That's very unfortunate. It's sad that Gregg still has to include filler in TMQ when it's already been shortened. 

Would Thomas Jefferson Have Played FanDuel? A bit of context for this week’s column is that casting lots has always been part of human nature. In Greek mythology, the gods threw dice to determine jurisdiction over Earth. Ancient pottery depicts wagering on animal fights and other forms of betting.

(Gregg Easterbrook earlier in this column) "It is morally wrong for the N.F.L. to be encouraging unsophisticated people to gamble their money away with the illusion of winning more money. How could the N.F.L. take part in such debauchery and tempt people to throw their money out the window? Shame on them!" 

(Gregg Easterbrook now) "Humans have been gambling since the beginning, even in mythology. In fact, even one of the United States Presidents liked to gamble a lot. He didn't run up any debts or anything like that so let's ignore this as any type of evidence that the N.F.L. isn't doing anything morally incorrect by encouraging gambling when Thomas Jefferson liked to gamble."

In his terrific 2007 book “Twilight at Monticello,” Alan Pell Crawford writes that during Thomas Jefferson’s youth, the future author of the Declaration of Independence struggled against the urge to wager. Jefferson found that in Williamsburg, then the decadent city of Virginia, men “entertained themselves in raucous fashion, playing cards, dice and billiards, often for high stakes.” Rest assured, Jefferson kept his mind focused on higher matters: He “did not run up gambling debts, and there are no reports of drunkenness or debauchery.”

Gregg is hoping his "unsophisticated" readers don't notice that "not running up debts" doesn't necessarily mean that Thomas Jefferson won every time he played. Like those who participate in FanDuel, Jefferson lost, but would always pay what he owed. So Jefferson gambled on high stakes, but always paid his debts. You know, sort of like participants in weekly online fantasy sports do when they lose and the money comes out of their checking account. 

Buck-Buck-Brawkkkkkk. Florida led heavily favored and third-ranked Ole Miss, 25-0, in the third quarter when Ole Miss reached fourth-and-goal on the Florida 5 — and kicked. Options for University of Mississippi Coach Hugh Freeze at that juncture: try for the touchdown or concede the game. Kicking proved the latter, Florida winning, 38-10. Doing the “safe” thing by kicking is so deeply ingrained in coaches’ heads that even a four-score deficit in the second half did not seem to Freeze reason to go for it.

I can't really defend this, but sometimes coaches like to give their players confidence by putting points on the board. This may not have been about making the "safe" play, but ensuring his team wasn't shut out for the sake of the team's confidence. 

The Football Gods Chortled. Since firing Lovie Smith after a 10-6 season, the Bears are 14-22. 

Gregg Easterbrook is a master at misleading his readers and selectively providing information to his readers. Ever since firing Lovie Smith the Bears are 14-22? Well, ever since he was fired by the Bears, Lovie Smith's record is 3-17. I don't play online fantasy sports and Gregg may consider me to be "unsophisticated" but that's a winning percentage below that of the Bears since they fired Smith. Of course Gregg leaves Smith's record with the Buccaneers since being fired by the Bears out of the discussion. It doesn't prove his point. Gregg wants to only include information that proves the point he wants to prove and doesn't give a shit if he's trying to mislead his readers in the process of trying to prove his point. It seems like the Football Gods are chortling at Lovie Smith too. I wish the Football Gods would smite Gregg Easterbrook.