Showing posts with label tim tebow. Show all posts
Showing posts with label tim tebow. Show all posts

Thursday, August 6, 2015

4 comments Rick Telander Thinks Jay Cutler Should Be More Like Tim Tebow Because Tebow is "An Effective Quarterback"

Bears fans wondered last year what was wrong with Jay Cutler. NFL analysts either still believe Cutler can be a great NFL quarterback or think the Bears should give up on him. John Fox is either going to make Cutler into a quarterback who makes great decisions with a conservative, run-based game plan (plus third down draws!) or pull him by Week 5 in favor of Jimmy Clausen. Not that Fox wants to re-live the Clausen Experiment of 2010 of course, but he does what he has to in order to win. He did, after all, get Tim Tebow to win games as a starting quarterback in the NFL. That's impressive. Speaking of Tim Tebow, Rick Telander believes Jay Cutler should be more like Tim Tebow. Rick wants Jay Cutler to learn how to be an effective NFL quarterback. Now unless Rick has traveled to the year 2019 during his lifetime, and at that point Tebow has actually become an effective NFL quarterback, I have no idea why he would state Tebow is an effective quarterback. But hey, we should all be more like Tebow.

Here’s a thought: If Tim Tebow can learn to be an effective NFL quarterback, why can’t our buddy Jay Cutler?

Jay Cutler's career numbers: 61-58 record as a starter, 61.7% completion, 183 TD's, 130 INT's, 27749 yards, 233.2 yards per game, 85.2 rating. 324 rushing attempts, 1425 yards, 4.4 yards per carry, 8 touchdowns.

Tim Tebow's career numbers: 8-6 as a starter, 47.9% completion, 17 TD's, 9 INT's, 2422 yards, 69.2 yards per game, 75.3 rating. 197 rushing attempts, 989 yards, 5.0 yards per carry, 12 touchdowns.

Granted, Tebow's sample size is significantly smaller, but if Telander will make the assertion then I will counter the assertion with the statistics I have. Tebow is not an effective quarterback compared to Jay Cutler, even if you include the rushing yards each has. Tebow has running plays called for him more than Cutler does, but I was surprised that Cutler has 324 rushing attempts in his career. So no, Tim Tebow did not learn to be an effective NFL quarterback and he in fact regressed as his career went along. If anything, Tebow forgot how to be an effective NFL quarterback as his career continued with the Jets and Patriots.

You may say, "Ben, we are going to learn that Tebow is working with Tom House to be an effective quarterback, so it's safe to assume this will be true." I think that's dumb, yet it's the assumption Rick Telander works this column around.

Now, I’m not saying Tebow, last seen playing quality minutes in the league back in 2011, will ever be Tom Brady. But he’s trying to be.

When I was younger, I was trying to be an NBA player. I worked hard at practicing. That doesn't mean Josh Smith needs to be more like me. 

And for our little hypothetical equation, that counts for a lot.

I'm not sure what this hypothetical equation is all about, but I'm pretty sure "natural talent to be a quarterback" is a big factor in NFL success, so if that's not part of the hypothetical equation comparing Tebow and Cutler then it should be. 

Is Cutler, now in his 10th year in the NFL, with 119 starts under his belt, trying to remake himself into a winning, Super Bowl-caliber QB? We don’t know, since Cutler communicates with the same openness of a trap-door spider, deep in his hole.

Cutler has plenty of other problems, but isn't it funny how many sportswriters' issue with Cutler always ends up being, "He's not nice and friendly to us when we want to talk to him"? It always comes back to that at some point and leads me to believe that if Cutler turned into Jerome Bettis (minus all the drug dealing and gang-banging as a youth which will be forgotten and never brought up again), then he wouldn't get quite so much criticism for just being a decent quarterback sometimes. But the media has to be harder on Cutler because he's not nice and sweet to them. It always feels like that's part of the evaluation of Cutler, either knowingly or unknowingly, from the sports media.

But let’s say he is. Now with a new coach and his fifth offensive coordinator in seven years, Cutler has a chance for rebirth. If he wants to be redone. And it’s even possible. It’s not like his career stats are terrible. He has thrown for almost 28,000 yards and 183 touchdowns. Last season, from an angle, looks like it was a dandy.

Nearly 99% of college quarterbacks who want to play in the NFL would accept these statistics happily and go live life on a pile of money, but that's not the standard Cutler should be held to is it? Lower these numbers, lower the skill level and then think, "Shouldn't Cutler be more like THAT GUY?" If the answer is "absolutely not, are you high?" then congratulations, you aren't a crazy person and Rick Telander's column makes no sense to you. 

So Cutler ought to want to improve. He has to improve.

Read this sentence again while remembering that Tebow is supposedly working harder than ever and seems to be regressing in his ability and opportunities to be an NFL quarterback. Tebow peaked a few years ago and Telander is comparing Cutler to Tebow, as if Tebow hasn't regressed through his career. His statistics don't lie. 

At any rate, here’s what’s up with Tebow, probably most remembered for his college exploits at Florida: Heisman Trophy winner, two-time NCAA national champion (2006 and 2008) and lots of Bible messages on his eye patches. Oh, and there was the famed ‘‘Tebowing,’’ the kneeling in closed-eyes, prayerful motionlessness as teammates and fans swirled around him.

The point is, Tebow can’t really throw. Everybody knows this.

Everybody knows this except for Tim Tebow and the people who are paid to say positive things about Tebow because they have spent time and their credibility trying to turn Tebow into a quarterback who can throw the football. These people will state they believe Tebow can throw the football, partly because they have a good reason to say this. 

It’s likely the Bears, led by running back Marion Barber’s inability to do something as simple as not run out of bounds and stop the clock in a game against the Denver Broncos in December 2011, extended Tebow’s quarterbacking career by a season or so.

I'm surprised Rick isn't trying to find a way to pin this on Jay Cutler somehow. I'm sure it can be done.

"You know, if Jay Cutler was a hard-working quarterback who cared about his chosen profession and wanted to answer our questions, then maybe he could have thrown the ball in this situation to run the clock out, instead of having to rely on a backup running back to do his dirty work for him." 

That sad situation in Denver occurred with the Bears leading by three. Barber cluelessly stopped the clock, giving the wild-armed Tebow a rare moment to eke out a come-from-behind overtime win.

And this is the quarterback who Telander says Jay Cutler should emulate and he also called Tebow "an effective quarterback." Now Tebow is "wild-armed." 

So Tebow, out of the game entirely for the last two seasons, has been religiously (oops, wrong word?) training under former major-league pitcher Tom House, learning how to pass a football. House, most famous for catching Hank Aaron’s 715th home-run ball in the Atlanta Braves’ bullpen, runs a complex and difficult program to break down a quarterback’s improper throwing style and build it back up the right way.

How does Rick know that Jay Cutler hasn't been working on improving his throwing motion or hasn't worked extra hard this offseason to improve his deficiencies from last season? Tebow has talked up his hard work because (a) he was trying to break back into the NFL, (b) wanted to keep his name out there in the mind of GM's, and (c) wanted GM's to know he was working on the biggest criticism of him, which was his throwing motion. Tebow publicized his hard work because that was one way to get back into the NFL. Jay Cutler at the very least has an NFL roster spot (possibly due to his contract), so he doesn't need to go around and tell everyone how hard he is working. Plus, why would the same guy who Rick Telander accuses of "communicating with the same openness of a trap-door spider" go around telling everyone how hard he is working? He's not good at communicating. It is possible to do hard work and not tell everyone about it. 

Tebow was nothing but wrong.

He had a good run for a half season or so. 

He threw the ball all with his arm, way to the side, in a windup that was something from a Walt Disney cartoon. His throws were slow to launch and not very accurate, made evident by his 49.7 percent completion rate in two seasons with the Broncos and one with the New York Jets. He was a tight end/fullback behind center.

Right, so why should Jay Cutler be like him again? The work ethic that Tebow has? Maybe, but there is a difference in not working hard and simply not publicizing how hard you are working. There is always a perception that if Cutler just worked harder he would be a better quarterback. Maybe he does work hard and all of his measurables and talent lead to what he is. 

Now? Well, maybe not perfect. Maybe not even average for the NFL. But at least hopeful. And, yes, he worked his tail off to improve.

By definition, I don't think a third-string quarterback can be considered an average NFL quarterback. Hope has nothing to do with it. Tebow can have hope in one hand and shit in the other and see which one gets filled first. Also, Tebow has worked really hard to improve, that's great, but it doesn't mean Cutler needs to be more like him or doesn't work hard enough. It's entirely possible that Cutler has worked hard on becoming a great quarterback without requiring people talking about it. Maybe not, though I'm sure Rick Telander believes he knows the truth.

‘‘He’s not one-dimensional anymore,’’ House told USA Today, ‘‘so I think he’s done a great job.’’

Ah yes, this is where the testimonials will begin. I'm not saying Tebow doesn't work hard, but he's hired Tom House (and I assume House is getting paid) to work with him, so naturally there will be quotes from House describing what a FANTASTIC JOB he has done with Tebow and how Tebow is working so hard. This could be true, but remember, House is getting paid (essentially) to say this. Based on quotes from someone Tim Tebow has hired, Rick Telander is making the assumption that (a) Cutler isn't working as hard as Tebow, (b) if Cutler worked this hard he would be a better quarterback, and (c) this now makes Tebow an "effective quarterback." All of these assumptions could be very, very incorrect.

House says it takes about 1,000 perfect repetitions to even start to change a bad habit, and 10,000 to master the skill.

Actually, Malcolm Gladwell says that. It's even in a book that Gladwell wrote called "Outliers."

‘‘He’s got his 10,000 reps,’’ House said. ‘‘Can this guy be an NFL quarterback? Well, our data says yes.’’

The data says "YES" Tebow can be an NFL quarterback. The reality does not reflect the data at this point. And again, Rick Telander is bashing Jay Cutler based on comments made by someone who works for and has skin in the game on whether Tebow ends up being an NFL quarterback. It's like asking Jay Cutler's wife if he works hard enough to be an NFL quarterback. Actually, Kristin Cavilavaillari probably has enough money on her own and wouldn't need to lie in order to give an answer. I would love to know a situation when Tom House or George Whitfield would say, "Oh hell no, this guy isn't ever going to be an NFL quarterback because he hasn't improved any" after that quarterback has worked under their tutelage. It makes no sense, because any negative comment also reflects on them. So consider the source when trying to say Cutler should work to improve like Tebow has so obviously improved.  

Ten thousand perfect throws is a lot. Like a serious lot. Tebow was signed by the Philadelphia Eagles in April, so we’ll see pretty soon if he’s actually reconstructed himself.

Yes, and if Tebow plays well for Chip Kelly then that obviously means Cutler didn't work hard enough and should be more like Tebow.

As for Cutler, a guy blessed with a rifle arm but cursed by a strange social obliviousness, who knows if he would practice anything 10,000 times just to improve, to try to be the best.

EXACTLY. Rick Telander doesn't know if Cutler would practice 10,000 times in order to improve, but because Cutler isn't friendly (and it always goes back to that, never forget that) to the media then Telander assumes Cutler won't practice that much. He then assumes because Tebow does practice a lot, as described by the person paid to say such things, then Cutler should be like Tebow...even though he may already be. In the words of Telander, "who knows?" 

Maybe, at 32, it’s too late for him to reconfigure his football body and mind.

Maybe he's already reconfigured and this is where we are at now. Who knows? Just because Cutler doesn't have a coach (who he pays) saying how reconfigured he is, it doesn't mean he hasn't put forth the effort. 

But it’s fun to think he could.

Yes, it's fun to think Cutler could reconfigure his football body and mind like Tebow has done, as claimed by the person who has a vested interest in stating publicly that Tebow has reconfigured his body and mind. If only Cutler were more like Tebow. He would just have to be a little less successful as an NFL quarterback. It's fun to think if Cutler were a little less prickly than maybe sportswriters wouldn't (knowingly or unknowingly) factor this into their evaluation of him. 

Saturday, May 16, 2015

3 comments You May Not Believe This, But Skip Bayless Makes Tim Tebow's Return to the NFL about Skip Bayless

You may not have heard, but Tim Tebow has signed with the Philadelphia Eagles. This news did go under the radar, so I understand how a lot of people may have missed it. Naturally, since he is the chief waver of pom-poms for Tebow's NFL career, Skip Bayless has some thoughts on Tebow's return. Even more naturally, Skip Bayless makes Tebow's return to the NFL just a little bit about himself and his interactions with Tebow. Skip's point is that Tim Tebow could play well as an Eagles player next year. He has to make the team first, of course. Tebow COULD play well (or "fly high"...vomit) as an Eagle, but he also could play the same way he played as a Jet and Patriot. Skip thinks other head coaches haven't utilized what Tebow does best, which is analyze football games (seriously, he was pretty good last year). I have nothing against Tebow as a person, but as a football player what he does best (which I'm still not sure what that would be) requires an offense be so limited that I'm not sure it's worth having Tebow around. But, maybe he can be useful in certain situations. It always annoys me (and the starting quarterback) when the backup gets put in the game for certain offensive packages. If Tebow is used as a goal line QB, then I could see him succeeding. Anyway, Skip says Chip Kelly is the best coach for Tebow, which just so happens to be something he also said about Bill Belichick when Tebow signed with the Patriots.

Funny how the smartest coach in football couldn't figure out a way to use Tebow, but now Skip decides that Chip Kelly is the new smartest coach in football. I almost root against Tebow just to hear Skip Bayless and his next excuse for why Tebow didn't succeed in the NFL.

Before college football's national championship game in January, Tim Tebow joined us on the "First Take" set in Dallas to discuss Ohio State vs. Oregon and the NFL playoffs.

I imagine this was one of the highlights of Skip's career, next to repeatedly calling Troy Aikman a homosexual and never really having solid proof this statement is true.

I thought about asking Tebow why he thought the NFL had rejected him for a second straight season, but that seemed like old news about an old wound. Tebow was an ESPN analyst now and we treated him like one.

Except Skip clearly didn't want to treat Tebow like an ESPN analyst, because he was more obsessed with proving Tebow could play in the NFL than Tebow was.

Backstage after the show, I felt a tap on the shoulder and turned to see Tebow.

Here is exclusive video of Skip's reaction when Tebow spoke with him. 

I don't know him well - in fact, the few times I've been around him in groups, I've sensed a coolness

Yes, Tebow has always come off as just really super-rad.

and wondered if Tebow shared the view of my on-air debate partner Stephen A. Smith.

And here we go. Skip Bayless believes that his words have an effect on pro athletes. It's one of the most self-centered beliefs that I can recall any human being actually holding. Skip gives himself credit for when LeBron plays well, when a team responds to play well after criticism from Skip and now he believes all NFL teams did not sign Tim Tebow because Skip advocated for Tebow too hard. This is a real thing that Skip believes. He's the type of person who gives feedback when it's requested and then assumes his counsel and only his counsel was heeded if changes are made. The fact NFL front offices, LeBron James or any sports figure could give two shits about what Skip has to say or believes never crosses his mind at any point.

"You helped ruin Tebow's chances in the NFL," Stephen A. often has said on our show. "You supported him so hard [against an onslaught of on-air ctitics] you helped create a lot of the hype that did him in."

This is a real thing that Skip and Stephen A. Smith think? Smith really thinks that Skip Bayless and his opinion on Tebow created so much of the hype around Tebow that NFL teams couldn't see past the hype to fairly evaluate him? Really? This isn't a joke? The Eagles are Tebow's fourth NFL team. At this point he's been on the roster of 12.5% of the NFL teams and been coached by head coaches who have combined been to eight Super Bowls, but it's the hype of Tebow by Skip Bayless that caused them to unfairly evaluate Tebow? This is madness.

Also, what are "ctitics"?

Stephen A. always adds, "That, and the fact he just can't throw."

It was more 98% the fact Tebow couldn't throw and 2% everything else around Tebow that couldn't be ignored because he just can't throw.

But now, backstage in Dallas, Tebow surprised me by saying: "Why didn't you ask me about wanting to continue my playing career?"

Not that Tebow wanted to keep his playing career in the forefront of people's minds even while he was collecting a paycheck from ESPN to not play football. Eyes on the prize.

The truth was I didn't want to further shame him or set him up to seem delusional.

Of course Skip Bayless plays favorite. Would Skip ever worry about asking any other pro athlete a question that would shame him or make the athlete look bad when on "First Take"? Of course not. But this is Skip Bayless and this is ESPN, so of course in the process of "Embracing Debate" it's fine for Skip to also play favorites and antagonize certain professional athletes Skip doesn't like and coddle other athletes that Skip likes better.

But I stammered back something about wishing I'd known and I would've asked.

Simply starstruck.

I must admit I felt sorry for Tebow, who just couldn't come to grips with the end of his football life.

Honestly Skip, I think most people feel sorry for you because you seem to lead a very empty life that mostly revolves around gaining attention for yourself through whatever means possible. Tebow comes off as a much more fulfilled person in his life than Skip comes off as being. Skip is a child who grabs pigtails to gain attention, while Tebow is good at being an analyst and could easily have a career in broadcasting.

At that point, I had no idea Tebow had faithfully returned for 18 straight months (at least twice a month) to Los Angeles to work with throwing guru Tom House, who has refined the mechanics of Tom Brady, Drew Brees, Carson Palmer and many big-league pitchers.

Bottom line from Skip's point of view: Tom House will turn Tim Tebow into Tom Brady. 

Nolan Ryan credited House (who pitched for eight big-league seasons) with helping extend his career when House was pitching coach for the Texas Rangers.

And the difference in Tebow and Nolan Ryan is that Nolan Ryan was already a great pitcher when he started working with Tom House. Tebow...not so much a great quarterback.

He told me Monday he has never seen anything like the commitment Tebow made to improving his passing "when he didn't even have a team or the prospect of being on a team. He just kept busting [his tail] and busting it and busting it."

Hard work is great and hard work is how Tim Tebow got to the NFL. Sometimes hard work isn't enough though.

That same week in Dallas, an NFL insider told me about a conversation he had with Eagles coach (and former Oregon coach) Chip Kelly, who insisted he didn't pick a quarterback for his system - but that he could play to the strengths of (and win with) any quarterback.

I have nothing against Chip Kelly and his wisdom, but this is insanity. I've lived through the Jimmy Clausen era in Carolina. I feel very, very certain Chip Kelly couldn't win with Jimmy Clausen as his starting quarterback.

Typical Chip, I thought. He doesn't just think he's the smartest man in every room he's in, but in every stadium, no matter the opposing coach or staff.

Kelly succeeding with Tebow may be the ultimate test that he can win with any quarterback. Okay, maybe not the ultimate test, but a pretty big test to prove he can win with any quarterback.

If conventional NFL wisdom says, "That won't work," Kelly sniffs

Apparently Skip thinks that Chip Kelly does a lot of cocaine.

and says, "Watch this."

But in January, Kelly had been given total control of Eagles' personnel moves. Little did I know how that was about to impact Tebow's NFL future.

It's a good thing that Skip had stopped talking about Tim Tebow in December, because otherwise all of the hype Skip gave Tebow would have affected Tebow's chances of making it in the NFL. Skip has the power to affect Tebow's chances of signing with an NFL team of course.

When Kelly heard Tebow, only 27, still wanted to play and continued to work fanatically on his throwing after two years out of the NFL, Kelly invited him to Philly for a tryout.

This, remember, was before Kelly dumbfounded the NFL in mid-March by trading Nick Foles (27 touchdown passes to only two interceptions in 2013) for an immobile Sam Bradford, the former No. 1 overall pick who has constantly battled injuries through his University of Oklahoma career and his five pro seasons

Clearly the only takeaway from this is that Chip Kelly trading Nick Foles so that he could clear room to sign Tim Tebow a month later. That's the only logical conclusion that can be drawn. Skip had to be very careful not to hype Tebow too much or else cause Kelly to change his mind and sign a different quarterback instead. Because, you know, the hype would drive Kelly's mind crazy to where his opinion of Tebow would be affected by Skip Bayless. Again, this is a real thing that can happen.

Speaking of jokes, a week before the Bradford deal, many Eagles fans considered this trade inexplicably laughable: LeSean McCoy to Buffalo for former Oregon linebacker Kiko Alonso. Kelly had acquired so many Oregon players that the Eagles might as well be renamed the Philadelphia Ducks.

Kelly was a sitting duck for criticism,

This is just terrible writing. I don't want to say Skip should stick to doing television instead of writing for ESPN, so I think Skip should stick to just going the hell away.

The head-shaking turned to belly-laughing on Monday, March 16, when Kelly brought Tebow to Philly for a workout. Kelly was impressed enough he wanted to sign Tebow immediately, but first wanted to maintain leverage in completing a trade for third-string QB Matt Barkley, hopefully to Miami.

Kelly was so impressed that he was going to trade every player on the Eagles roster to ensure Tebow would have a roster spot, but later decided against this.

Tebow's last NFL stop just might be the jumpstart his career needs. Finally, he's playing for a coach who actually wants to utilize what he does best.

Which is what Skip said when Tebow went to the Patriots. How soon he forgets.

That could've been Josh McDaniels, who drafted Tebow 25th overall - then got fired midway through Tebow's rookie year in Denver.

Because Skip is a journalistic clown and only serves to troll others without providing any useful information, he of course leaves out the little fact that Tebow's offensive coordinator when he was briefly with the Patriots was........................Josh McDaniels. So Josh McDaniels could have utilized what Tebow does best with Denver, yet he didn't do this when he coached Tebow in New England. Weird how that works isn't it? The excuses keep coming. Skip keeps saying, "This is the guy who can utilize Tebow best," as if the problem is coaching and not Tebow. Yet, McDaniels had a chance to utilize Tebow in New England and it didn't work out. Tebow even had the advantage of being coached by Bill Belichick while working with Josh McDaniels. We know how that ended.

So Skip always blames the coaching for not utilizing Tebow correctly, but because he has no regard for facts, he doesn't realize how ridiculous he sounds. Skip doesn't deal in reality, I think that's the main issue he has.

It quickly became clear to Tebow that the Jets were more interested in using him as an occasional gimmick to win only New York's back-page tabloid headlines from the Giants.

Of course, the Jets had no interest in winning games. They only wanted to win the headline game. This is how Skip Bayless believes the NFL world works. Skip Bayless gets paid a lot of money to comment on professional sports by the way.

A brittle Bradford, a shaky Sanchez: Is it possible Kelly will give Tebow a legit shot at competing for the starting job? Several NFL sources have predicted to me he will.

Those NFL sources are probably as real as the "facts" that Skip spits out on "First Take" everyday.

Wouldn't Chip Kelly like nothing more than to say "Watch this" to his buddy Belichick?

No. Chip Kelly wants to win fucking football games, not get into a childish pissing contest with another NFL coach to see who can take the most mediocre quarterback and win games with him. Does Skip really believe the sports world works like this? He believes the Jets just want more headlines than the Giants, Chip Kelly would sign a quarterback to show Belichick he can succeed with that quarterback or his own comments about Tebow affects the evaluation of NFL teams? Skip Bayless is better served being an idiot caller on sports talk radio if these are real beliefs he has.

In Kelly's two seasons in Philly, his offense led the NFL in read-option plays with 514. Next was Russell Wilson's Seattle with only 235. In 2011, often running the read option, Tebow took over a 1-4 Denver team and turned it into the NFL's top rushing attack. Tebow runs the option with gut instinct and rare will, and now he'll be playing the ride-and-decide game with the NFL's reigning rushing champ, new Eagle DeMarco Murray.

He'll be playing the ride-and-decide game with Murray for the 10 games that Murray is actually healthy during the 2015 season.

Tebow took that 1-4 team to a divisional title and home playoff win over Pittsburgh.

I don't know how long this is going to be mentioned. Yes, the Broncos were 8-8 and beat the Steelers in overtime on a slant where the safety (the same backup safety I believe that replaced Ryan Clark, who couldn't play in the game due to his sickle cell disease...obviously God wanted Clark to have sickle cell so Tebow could win a playoff game) took a bad angle and Demaryius Thomas took the pass to the house. Funny how Skip doesn't mention what happened in the next playoff game on the road against the Patriots. This always seems to be left out. Tebow was 9-26 for 136 yards in a 45-10 loss. Heck, he didn't even complete 50% of his passes in the epic, never-to-be-forgotten win over the Steelers.

He has always thrown a pretty good deep ball, always a Kelly staple. Hmmm.

I don't know if this is true or not.

All I said before the draft was: If you take him at the bottom of the first round and let him run the read option and throw off its run fakes, he will win games in the NFL. Did he ever.

Yes, but then Tebow didn't win games in the NFL. I've always enjoyed how Skip has completely ignored the failures Tebow has had in the NFL and chalked it up to simply bad coaching. Of course it is bad coaching. Let's just focus on the times Tebow was good and ignore the bad.

He began losing confidence with the Jets, and though House worked briefly with Tebow before he went to camp with the Patriots and raved Tebow was throwing "beautifully," Tebow crumbled under the pressure of sharing a camp field with Brady. He pressed. He choked. He regressed. He gave Belichick (and coordinator McDaniels) no choice but to cut him.

So the lesson to learn is that as long as Tebow doesn't have an NFL-quality starter in front him, then he can be an NFL starter? Just surround him with shitty quarterbacks and Tebow can compete.

Now, no doubt, those who do not believe in Kelly are thinking, "Tebow will get him fired."

Yeah, Chip Kelly isn't going to let Tebow get him fired. Rest assured about that. Tebow will be gone long before Kelly gets fired for hanging on to Tebow for too long.

All I know for sure is, that day in Dallas when Tebow was on our show, I should've asked him about his playing career.

It is all about you, Skip. But think about it. If you had asked Tebow about his playing career it would have only contributed to the hype and then Tebow would not have gotten a chance to play in the NFL again. NFL teams hang on your every word, so they would have gotten lost in the hype of Tebow and only paid attention to the fact that three really good coaches have already given Tebow the boot. 

Saturday, April 25, 2015

8 comments Skip Bayless Evaluates Why NFL QB Draft Choices Fail; HAHA! I'm Just Kidding, Skip Bayless Talks about Himself and His Old Opinions of NFL QB Draft Choices

I imagine the home of Skip Bayless isn't really a home. I imagine it has approximately 500 mirrors and mostly serves as a shrine to Skip's favorite person, himself. Every article he writes at ESPN.com is really just about Skip's opinion and the opinion of others regarding Skip's opinion. There's no substance to any of Skip's writing, instead it is mostly "Here is my opinion and what others thought about my opinion and do you mind if we talk about me a little bit more?" So under the guise of figuring out why quarterbacks taken in the first round of the NFL Draft miss the mark in the NFL, Skip reviews the quarterbacks who he believed would succeed and discusses how sometimes he's right and sometimes he is wrong, but mostly it's just another shrine to Skip Bayless and his opinions. The use of the words "I," "I'm," and "I've" in this article is so prevalent only the most noble and bored of adventurers would take on the expedition of counting how many times Skip uses these words.

I'll admit it's getting a little eerie. Six times before NFL drafts, I've taken a stand for quarterbacks doubted by many. For a while, they've all made me look like a genius.

It's eerie that Skip really doesn't know what the fuck he is talking about. Weird, isn't it?

Then ...

Things have gone wrong.

They have gone wrong for a variety of reasons, but mostly because Skip was never right and NFL defensive coordinators found a way to game plan around stopping the strengths of these quarterbacks. It's much in the same way that Skip would build a bridge and claim "for a while" it was a work of genius until one day the entire bridge fell and killed dozens of people and hundreds of innocent water creatures. Skip will still insist "for a while" that bridge worked really well, while ignoring that isn't the mark of success at all.

In each case I wound up publicly pilloried as a madman, a football fool, a quarterback hack who is daft when it comes to the draft. I still believe I deserve credit for always being so initially right. You decide.

It's all about Skip and the reaction of the public to the idiotic words he speaks because ESPN inexplicably gives him a forum to speak these words. And no, there is no credit being given for being initially right, because being initially right where a quarterback plays well for a season or two isn't correctly predicting that quarterback will succeed in the NFL. Success isn't determined over a short span of time. There's really no debate that can be had on this. Skip isn't right because Tim Tebow fooled defensive coordinators for almost an entire season, at least until they caught on to how to game plan around him.

But as we go case by case, you'll see a common cause of eventual failure -- one I can't account for pre-draft.

Skip tries to blame outside forces for the reason each quarterback didn't succeed in the NFL, in order to cover up for the fact "He isn't a good quarterback" could not have been accounted for prior to the draft. Skip can try and talk around it all he wants, and I will admit it's a guessing game whether some of these quarterbacks will succeed in the NFL, but the bottom line is that Skip went hard all-in on some of these quarterbacks and has ended up being wrong. He can talk around it, but that's the bottom line.

Most of these quarterbacks wound up with franchises whose executives and coaches were dangerously split on them. I was all-in. The team that drafted them was not.

Of course, it is the franchise's fault for not being all-in on these quarterbacks. Naturally. It's not that those executives and coaches who argued against the drafting of these quarterbacks were right, it's just they were only right because they argued against drafting these quarterbacks based on legitimate reasons that ended up being correct. But the reasons wouldn't have been correct if they had just been all-in on the quarterback. It all makes sense if you turn your brain off. 

You'll also see a common flaw: Several of "my guys" failed to handle their success and/or failure in unstable and uneasy situations.

And really, who could have seen that coming? Johnny Manziel partied a lot in college and was drafted by an organization that seems somewhat dysfunctional? Who could have seen that he wouldn't succeed? 

You can argue I've been much more long-term accurate on which quarterbacks are being dangerously overrated. I said on air JaMarcus Russell and Sam Bradford were very bad ideas for No.1 overall picks, that Alex Smith would never live up to being taken No. 1 and that Matt Leinart, Brady Quinn, Jake Locker, Blaine Gabbert and Christian Ponder were not first-round picks. 

You could argue that, but it wouldn't mean Skip wasn't wrong about these other six quarterbacks.

Those weren't popular stances.

Skip is a rebel and takes unpopular stances, based on the fact Stephen A. Smith disagrees with him. As is well known, Stephen A. Smith speaks for the majority opinion of the sports-loving world.

Neither were these ...

2006: I said on air the Houston Texans should take Vince Young No. 1 overall, in part because he grew up in Houston and had just led the University of Texas to the national championship with the greatest individual performance in title-game history.

Does Skip remember how popular Vince Young was coming out of Texas? It was not popular to say he would be successful in the NFL? I do disagree. Also, you can see from the start this isn't a column about WHY NFL quarterbacks taken early in the draft fail, as promised in the column title, but is about Skip Bayless and what he has said on the air. One other thing, to indicate the Texans should have taken Young simply because he grew up in Houston and led the University of Texas to a national championship is very bad reasoning for taking Young #1 overall.

Houston shockingly opted for defensive end Mario Williams, leaving Reggie Bush for the New Orleans Saints and Young for the Tennessee Titans general manager Floyd Reese and Titans owner Bud Adams,

It was shocking in that Mario Williams really worked out well for the Texans and Bush never really was the running back he promised himself to be in college. So it's almost like the Texans knew what they were doing.

One big problem: coach Jeff Fisher was against drafting Young.

Jeff Fisher is never wrong and you take it back right now.

Still, Young often made me look pretty good. He was offensive rookie of the year. He made two Pro Bowls. He went 30-17 as Tennessee's starter.

And that's really what this is all about isn't it? Which quarterbacks made Skip look good and which quarterbacks didn't make Skip look good. Vince Young did have success for a while, but this doesn't mean Skip was right about him. I think Mario Williams was the right pick for the Texans. 

But predictably, he often clashed with Fisher. It appeared Fisher helped turn some in the local and national media against Young. His skin grew thin.

IT WASN'T YOUNG'S FAULT HE FAILED IN THE NFL! IF HE HAD JUST GOTTEN ANOTHER SHOT WITH ANOTHER NFL TEAM HE WOULD HAVE SUCCEE---

Incredibly, after a season in Philadelphia and a camp with the Buffalo Bills and another with the Green Bay Packers, the league rejected Young at age 30.

This is shocking that Skip blames Young's failures on the environment in Tennessee and Young goes to another NFL team and continues to not be a good quarterbacks. It's almost like, and I almost dare not say it, Vince Young wasn't really a great quarterback and Skip was wrong about Young. But no, I'm sure the issues Jeff Fisher had with Young followed him to Philadelphia, Buffalo and to Green Bay. That makes more sense than Skip just outright being wrong.

What if Fisher had wanted to draft Young, had publicly invested his pride in him, had supported him through the growing pains? Young was too good for it to go so wrong.

What if Vince Young had success early in his career and this pretty much rejects the idea the biggest issue with Young's progress in the NFL is that he wasn't supported enough, because it doesn't make sense for him to play well at the beginning of his career and suddenly need more nurturing as he played more NFL games? I'm sure the Titans could have done something to help Young more, but three other teams took a look at Young and rejected him.

Another quarterback taken in that 2006 draft made the Pro Bowl in his second full season of starting. When Jay Cutler was a junior at Vanderbilt (my alma mater) I began raving about him on air, predicting he'd be a "franchise quarterback." Of course, that proclamation was met with chuckles. A Vandy quarterback?

As always, it is about Skip Bayless. Sense a trend that permeates Skip's entire writing style?

"Here's a quarterback. Here's what I thought about that quarterback. Here's what others thought about my thoughts about this quarterback. Here's an excuse for why I was wrong, but this doesn't mean I was wrong and others were right."

Cutler was the "lucky" one of the six debatable quarterbacks I loved before their drafts. (He's also the most prototypical pocket passer who least relied on his legs.) Shanahan really wanted him. So did the Bears. I certainly wasn't wrong about Cutler's ability. He's no bust. But he is what he was at Vandy: a little more interested in pulling off the occasional "wow" throw than winning.

Skip wasn't wrong about Cutler's ability? Is Cutler a franchise quarterback? No? Skip said Cutler was a franchise quarterback and he isn't, so that leads me to the conclusion Skip was wrong.

2009: I said on air that Mark Sanchez was being overrated. He went fifth to the Jets. I also raved about Josh Freeman and said the Tampa Bay Bucs stole him at No. 17.

Ah yes, the inconsistencies of Skip come to the forefront. He uses "games won" to make a case for why Vince Young could have been a great quarterback if it weren't for that meddling Jeff Fisher. All of a sudden he skips over that Mark Sanchez went to two AFC Championship Games as the starter for the Jets. Sure, I wouldn't give Sanchez credit for that, but in his eagerness to show how right he was about Sanchez, Skip changes the metric he uses for quarterback success. All of a sudden "games won" doesn't hold as much meaning to Skip when he's talking about a quarterback he thought wouldn't succeed in the NFL. Weird how that works.

I'd watched Kansas State's 6-6, 240-pound Freeman play big in his biggest games against Texas and Oklahoma.

No one else saw this. Only Skip saw Freeman play big in his biggest games against Texas and Oklahoma. (By the way, notice how Skip's love for the University of Texas seems to play a part in his evaluations?)

In his first full season as Tampa Bay's starter, he made me look pretty great by throwing 25 touchdown passes to only six interceptions and leading the Bucs to a 10-6 record. He was a Pro Bowl alternate.

Then ... it all fell apart in 2011. Rumors swirled. Maybe Freeman let success go to his head (or stomach). Maybe Raheem Morris lost control of the team as it went from 3-1 to 4-12. Morris was fired.

Freeman played pretty well in coach Greg Schiano's first season -- 27 touchdown passes, 17 interceptions -- but the team went 7-9.

Welp, it seems using team performance to evaluate a quarterback means something important again.

After three starts in 2013, the Bucs tried to trade Freeman, couldn't and released him. After one horrendous Monday night start for the Minnesota Vikings, a 23-7 loss at the New York Giants, Freeman was out of football at age 25.

You still hear speculation Freeman will get another shot. But how could he go from 2010 to this? Again: so right, so wrong.

Probably the same reason a rookie baseball player can have a fantastic rookie year and then fail to improve on or reach those heights for the rest of his career. Opponents adjust to the rookie's tendencies, and when the player's true talent comes to light after opponents have adjusted, it turns out he isn't the star people thought he could end up being.

2010: I said on air I would take Tim Tebow late in the first round. "If you let him run the read option he ran at Florida," I said, "he'll win games in the NFL. He'll never make a Pro Bowl, but he can win games as a starting quarterback."

He'll "win games," which is exactly the type of thing you want your first round pick quarterback to do. Just don't suck and win a few games.

Under John Fox, the Broncos began the next season 1-4, and a new Broncos regime (led by John Elway) that clearly didn't believe in Tebow threw him into the fire, at Miami, out of desperation. I was asked on air what I thought Tebow's record would be the rest of the season. I said 7-4. Chuckles.

Tebow went 7-4, led Denver to the AFC West title, led the NFL in QBR in the last five minutes of games and turned the Broncos into the NFL's No. 1 rushing attack. 

And let's be clear that the Broncos HAD to become the NFL's No. 1 rushing attack with Tebow as the quarterback, because he wasn't going to win games by throwing the football. Regardless of whether the Elway regime believed in Tebow or not, it doesn't mean they stunted his growth. Tebow failed in New York, where Rex Ryan took Mark Sanchez (the same Sanchez that Skip didn't like as an NFL QB) to two AFC Championship Games and he flamed out in New England. I would think if Belichick could have used Tebow in any productive way then he would have.

That offseason the Broncos replaced Tebow with ... Peyton Manning! No shame there. Tebow was traded to the Jets, with whom he was never even given a shot at starting.

That's funny. Tebow was in New York the season that Mark Sanchez was horrible and the Jets needed someone, anyone, to come in and play well at the quarterback position. Even going up against the quarterback that Skip thinks sucks, Mark Sanchez, Tebow couldn't win the starting job on a team desperate for a starting quarterback. So yeah, he was never given a shot. That's the lie that Skip will go with.

Tebow began to doubt himself and drifted from one throwing guru to another.

Maybe he started doubting himself because he's really not that good at throwing the football?

It's still possible the Philadelphia Eagles' Chip Kelly will sign Tebow, but again, I was so sensationally right ... and ultimately condemned as so dead wrong.

No, not at all. You were so sensationally wrong. Tim Tebow is now a co-worker of Skip's at ESPN. Tebow is not in the NFL anymore, so Skip was right for a brief period of time, but in the longer span of time he was absolutely wrong about Tebow. Again, simply because a bridge holds up for a brief span of time before it collapses does not mean it was a safe bridge to cross for that brief span of time.

I do really like how Skip talks about how he was right about Tebow winning games as an NFL quarterback, while also ignoring that Tebow couldn't beat out the quarterback Skip proudly beats his chest in this article for correctly stating wouldn't be successful (Mark Sanchez). Ignore that which makes Skip look dumb. That's A LOT of ignoring.

2012: On air long before the draft, I said Robert Griffin III would prove to be an even better pro than Andrew Luck. The Washington Redskins traded three first-rounders and a second to move up from No. 6 to No. 2 to take RG III. Way too much? Not to me.

It's hard for Skip to talk his way out of this one. He'll try to do so by ignoring the issue he himself brought up when arguing for Griffin. The issue Skip presented was that Griffin will be a better quarterback than Andrew Luck. He's not and he won't ever be. Skip was wrong.

Still, In RG III's rookie season, at age 22, he went superstar on the NFL. Offensive rookie of the year, 20 touchdown passes to just five interceptions, led the league in yards per pass attempt and per rush, led his team to the NFC East crown, had a better QBR than Luck -- 71.4 to 65.2.

FOR ONE YEAR! ONE SOLITARY SEASON!

RG III sprained his knee late in the season, then tweaked it just before his team jumped out 14-0 on the Seattle Seahawks in a home playoff game, then wrecked it late in that eventual loss. And he has spent the past two seasons looking like a sad shell of a guy who no longer trusts his legs or eyes or arm.

I like how Skip always blames outside forces for the failure of these quarterbacks. It's never, "Griffin got injured and his lack of mobility revealed him as a one-read quarterback who just couldn't grasp the passing concepts required to be an NFL quarterback." Skip reasons that Griffin no longer trusted his leg or arm after his injury. Of course, because Skip could never be wrong with his evaluation of Griffin's abilities.

He clashed with Shanahan and failed to click with new coach Jay Gruden. Now ESPN's John Clayton is reporting new GM Scot McCloughan will take Mariota if he's there at No. 5.

Now it feels like RG III's best bet is to start over with another team in another town.

Where when/if Griffin fails there, then Skip will conveniently ignore that Griffin was away from the Redskins' toxic environment and he still couldn't succeed.

2014: I said on air the Texans would forever regret not taking Texas native Johnny Manziel, the Heisman winner from Texas A&M, with the No. 1 overall pick.

And so far, the Texans have been correct twice when Skip has claimed they would regret not taking a quarterback that Skip suggests they draft.

I was told the Texans were considering Manziel until they asked him to lay low and behave himself in the month leading up to the draft. Manziel attended the Masters, had too much to drink and -- the Texans were told -- made a spectacle of himself. They were out.

Again and again I said before the draft: If alcohol proves to be an ongoing issue for Manziel, I'm out.

Skip is blaming alcohol for Manziel's poor rookie season, while acknowledging that he thought alcohol could be an issue for Manziel prior to his being drafted. This sort of contradicts what Skip said earlier in this column:

But as we go case by case, you'll see a common cause of eventual failure -- one I can't account for pre-draft.

Oh, except Skip did account for Manziel's alcohol use pre-draft. I wouldn't expect Skip to stay consistent.

Loggains showed the text to owner Jimmy Haslam, who encouraged GM Ray Farmer, coach Mike Pettine and coordinator Kyle Shanahan to trade up to take Manziel. The Browns did, from 26 to 22.

But the GM, coach and coordinator were not sold on Manziel. I said on air the next morning this was the wrong place for a quarterback whose coaches and execs must be united in their belief in him and his crazy-competitive playmaking genius. This, I said, will not work.

Me, me, me, me. Skip said this or that "on air." I wonder if Skip could write a column without once referencing his own opinion or in any way trying to bring the subject of the column back around to himself? Most definitely not. Remember, Kyle Shanahan was the offensive coordinator for Robert Griffin when he had his great rookie season. I'm not entirely sure what this means, so forget I brought it up.

The Browns lost last year's starter, Brian Hoyer, a Pettine favorite, to free agency but have signed Josh McCown and Thad Lewis and recently (according to an ESPN report) tried to trade for Bradford. Manziel no longer appears to be in the Browns' plans -- and shouldn't have been in the first place.

Manziel needs a second chance with a GM and coach who completely buy in. Maybe he'll prove to be nothing but a bust. The other five did not.

The other five quarterbacks that Skip caped up for weren't busts, but neither were quarterbacks that Skip proudly tells his readers he never liked and look at how right he was about that. Mark Sanchez wasn't a bust if Tim Tebow wasn't a bust, Sam Bradford hasn't been a bust, and Alex Smith is a lot of things, but he's also been a better quarterback than the six Skip has listed here as QB's he was temporarily right about.

I can't predict injury or addiction or sorry situations. But I must admit, if I were a hotly debated draftee, I wouldn't want me pushing for me.

It's not like Skip is a well-known personnel genius or anything like that. He's just a guy with a hot take who likes to take guesses and then make excuses if he is wrong. But yes, I wouldn't want you speaking about me at all if I were a draftee. I would prefer you just disappear or try to write a column that isn't simply about you. 

Tuesday, April 21, 2015

3 comments MMQB Review: Peter Talks About Tim Tebow, Not Because He Wants to, But Because One Anonymous Coach Said Tebow May Make the Eagles Roster

Peter King described Troy Polamalu as a pure safety in last week's MMQB in order to explain how safeties aren't often elected into the Pro Football Hall of Fame, then went out of his way to get quotes from Dick LeBeau and Joe Flacco that show Polamalu was more of a hybrid safety. He also spotlighted Sarah Thomas again and wondered if she could handle grown men yelling at her. Peter also continued his useless Adieu Haiku. This week Peter talks about Tim Tebow being signed by the Eagles (not that he is just another media member obsessed with Tebow of course), talks yet again about Malcom Butler's interception in the Super Bowl, and has some strong feelings about how the NHL does their draft lottery. Oh, and Peter thinks the Patriots should have done more homework on Aaron Hernandez prior to giving him a contract extension. That's easy to say now.

Timeline of Sunday night:

It's important that Peter breakdown the timeline here. We are about two weeks away from Peter mocking the Tebow-mania that goes on in the media. It's the same Tebow-mania he is guilty of himself, but he won't be self-aware enough to realize this.

6:34 p.m. ET: FOX’s Jay Glazer reports the Eagles will sign quarterback Tim Tebow, unemployed by any NFL team for the past 20 months, on Monday.

7:46 p.m.: ESPN’s Darren Rovell tweets, “98,000 Tweets on Tim Tebow in last hour.”
 
9:02 p.m.: Assistant coach in the NFL who knows Kelly but does not work with him says to me, “This is not a prayer. There’s a chance here. If there’s one coach in the NFL who could figure a way to use Tebow, it’s Chip. Maybe not every week, but in spots.”
Substitute the word "Belichick" for "Kelly," then "Bill" for "Chip" and I have heard this shit before. I believe it was previously Bill Belichick who could use Tebow on the Patriots roster and would figure out a way to utilize him best.

Tebow signing with most teams in the NFL today might not lead this column, especially because I’ve got two other items I really like. Tebow signing with the Eagles leads the column because, as my anonymous coach says, Kelly will give Tebow a legitimate chance to be one of his three quarterbacks this season. I say “chance,” because that is what this is.

Don't bullshit us, Peter. It's unbecoming. You have Tebow lead the column because putting "Tim Tebow" in the title of MMQB and leading off with it increases pageviews. Don't be a liar and don't use horseshit excuses. It doesn't make sense to write, "Well, I wouldn't normally lead the column off with Tebow, but I'm doing it because some anonymous coach says Tebow has a chance to be the third-string QB for the Eagles." So simply because some anonymous coach gives Tebow "a chance" to make the roster all of a sudden it's worthy of leading MMQB with this story? Please. Just say you know Tebow provides pageviews and that's why you are leading the column off with Tebow. You can find an anonymous coach to give credibility to any roster move if you really want to. Peter really wanted to find one, so he can act like it's worth leading off MMQB with Tebow. 

This morning, Kelly has five quarterbacks on his roster, which will expand to 90 players in the next two weeks, once the draft and the signing of free agents is done. Kinne might be gone then. Who knows? Barkley might be gone then, traded or released. But Chip Kelly wants to get a good look for himself at Tim Tebow in the offseason program and presumably at training camp for at least a while.

Thanks for the inside information there, Peter. This does seem to explain why the Eagles signed Tebow, to get a look at him. The fact Tebow has "a chance" to make the roster, doesn't mean all of a sudden this Tebow is story more important than it otherwise would have been. Just say you wanted to lead off the column with the story that provides the most discussion and pageviews.

I don’t blame him. I applaud him. You’ve got 90 spots on your roster. If you think a player has a chance to help your team win a game somewhere down the road this season, wouldn’t you want to take a look at him for a few months—for free? Because the Tebow trial will cost Kelly essentially nothing.

I don't think anyone is blaming Chip Kelly. Little defensive here, Peter?

In 2010 he was a first-round pick.

Stupidly he was, yes.

He has a skill set that fits in Kelly’s spread scheme with an emphasis on quarterback runs (at times). I still think Kelly wants to have a mashing-type running game, with a physical back (he has that now, in DeMarco Murray) and a quarterback who, at least occasionally, can be a running threat.

Tim Tebow could succeed. He may not succeed.

Let’s be real about what this is:

Ohhhhhhhhhhhhh, Peter is about to get real!

It’s a trial. It’s a chance. It’s a coach who doesn’t care about the distraction of having Tim Tebow in his camp, because he thinks Tebow might help his team. And about that distraction thing: Did you ever hear Bill Belichick or Robert Kraft or Tom Brady talk about Tebow being a distraction in Foxboro in 2013, when Tebow was on that team for the whole of training camp? No.

Well, I partially didn't hear them complain because I don't cover football for a living nor am I around the Patriots team to where I could hear them complain. The fact a tight-lipped organization didn't publicly complain about distractions a player brought to the team doesn't really mean there was no distraction. Do I ever hear Brady, Kraft or Belichick complain about any player being a distraction? No? It doesn't mean that player wasn't a distraction.

Cutting Tebow was justified. Tebow didn’t deserve to be on that team. He might deserve to be a cog in the wheel in Philadelphia. We’ll see.

But more importantly, Peter didn't lead off this column with Tebow because he wants pageviews, it's because there's "a chance" Tebow makes the Eagles roster. That is enough to give Tebow the lede for this MMQB. Peter almost HAD to lead the column with Tebow or he wouldn't be doing his job as a serious journalist.

Tebow getting signed by the Eagles is not the decline of western sporting civilization.

No one said it was. Calm the fuck down.

It is a coach running an offensive system that’s a good fit for a mobile quarterback just looking into whether one of the best mobile quarterbacks in college football history—and one, by the way, who beat the Dick LeBeau-led Steelers defense in an NFL playoff game—can be That Guy.

Oh my God. How long is Tebow going to be given credit for beating the Steelers at home in a playoff game?

Hall of Fame GMs on Winston vs. Mariota

Before we learn the real story behind the Malcolm Butler interception, and why I think Big Ben is bound for the season-opener, and finally someone going on the record in San Francisco on L’Affair Harbaugh,two voices of sanity on the great quarterback debate of 2015.

Peter sort of already did this. I'll guess he'll do it again. The Super Bowl was over two months ago. There is nothing better to kill space than hearing the "real" story of Malcolm Butler's interception? Nothing else?

In August, Ron Wolf and Bill Polian will become the first general managers since 1995 enshrined in the Pro Football Hall of Fame. Both are still active in the game. Wolf has been a consultant to several teams in recent years, most recently the Jets in a scouting and coach-and-GM-advisory capacity. 

Oh. He was involved with the Jets recently.

Polian works for ESPN as an NFL analyst, and has been watching tape of college players preparing to work the draft.

Bill Polian is like, "Draft Peyton Manning and then reap the benefits. That's my advice to the Buccaneers and Titans."

Polian had to choose between Peyton Manning and Ryan Leaf in 1998 as general manager of the Colts, and between Kerry Collins and Steve McNair for the Panthers in 1995.

Hey, one for two isn't bad. Then Polian had to choose whether to build the Panthers for success for the future or build them for short-term success that would enable him to get a job somewhere else and I think I remember which option he chose.

I asked both Hall of Fame GMs over the weekend: If you had to choose between quarterbacks Jameis Winston and Marcus Mariota in this draft, who would you take?
 
In fairness, both answered with asterisks, which I’ll explain.

In fairness, I'm going to need a fucking solid answer if I'm to believe these two Hall of Fame GM's aren't just going to say nothing in the hopes they won't be seen as wrong.

“I’d probably lean toward Mariota,” Polian said.
 
“If I had to pick, based strictly on what I know now, I’d pick Winston,” said Wolf.

Actually Ron Wolf, you will be allowed a five minute look into the future. Put your head into this metal contraption that looks like a bear trap, but is totally NOT a bear trap, so just stick your head in there and I'll let you make the decision based on what you know in the future. But you only get a five minute look!

Every single decision a GM makes is based strictly on what he knows now.

The provisos: Polian said it’s unfair to make a definitive choice without knowing everything your organization would know about the mental makeup and off-the-field behavior of the players. Wolf said “it isn’t fair” for him to judge Mariota with finality because he’s done much more work on Winston, even seeing him on the field in warmups before the Florida State-Miami game last fall.

Well great, I'm glad Peter asked your opinion then. Because I know Peter's readers are looking for an opinion with a huge asterisk beside that essentially says, "I don't know enough about this player to provide an opinion on this topic, even though I've been set up as an expert on the topic."

With those “yeah buts” out of the way, it was clear in talking to both men they have strong opinions on these players.

Strong opinions that they would prefer not to be held to, because their strong opinions are based only on what they know now and they can't predict the future so if they are right please remember they were right, but if they were wrong then let's forget about it and hey look remember Brett Favre and Peyton Manning?

“I’ve seen Mariota on tape—I’d have to see a lot more of him—and I’ve seen Winston in-person and on tape,’’ said Wolf. “I’ve been exposed to Winston more. I watched Winston versus Miami before the game, down on the field, and then will his team back from a 16-point deficit. He’s an imposing guy. He has everything you’d want in a quarterback. I thought he was superb. What I know about Winston I like a lot. I’d take him in a heartbeat.”

But this doesn't mean in the next heartbeat he wouldn't take Marcus Mariota.

I asked: “If the psychological report on Winston was clean, would it still be Mariota?”

Polian: “Very, very close. But I’d probably lean toward Mariota, as I said. It’s closer than Manning-Leaf was. Way closer. More like Collins-McNair in ’95. With Mariota, I don’t think playing from the pocket will be an issue; he did a lot of that in the eight or nine games I saw. And he didn’t throw 18 interceptions either. On 14 of those 18 interceptions, Winston didn’t see linebackers underneath or he zeroed in on the receiver regardless of coverage.

“But look, both guys have a chance to be successful. They’re both gifted.

Thanks Bill Polian! I feel smarter now knowing that you would choose Marcus Mariota.

And I’ve got to go with the more sure thing in my mind—Mariota.”

But this isn't a definitive choice of course.

Memo to Tampa Bay GM Jason Licht: The moral of this story, this year, is there isn’t a 100-percent sure thing, for a variety of reasons. You’d better go with your gut. The gut sounds like it’ll be Winston as we sit here, 10 days before D-Day.

Oh yeah, D-Day. That's the day that resulted in Peter King having a lot of chances to ask soldiers how many people they killed.

I hope I don't forget to remember Peter called the 10 days before the draft as "D-Day" the next time Peter gives a lecture to someone about taking football too seriously.

The inside story of how Malcolm Butler made that interception.

(Deep sigh)

The still-stunning play that decided Super Bowl 49, of course, was little-used nickelback Malcolm Butler’s interception of a Russell Wilson pass with 23 seconds left in the game at the Patriots’ goal line, preserving New England’s 28-24 victory. On a soon-to-be released video series, a part of which I recently got to watch, you’ll be able to see the rest of the story. Namely, why Butler made the play, and how the Patriots’ coaches made sure an error in Thursday’s practice by Butler would not be repeated.

I'm not still-stunned. Miraculously, I have managed to move on with my life.

The still-stunning play that decided Super Bowl 49, of course, was little-used nickelback Malcolm Butler’s interception of a Russell Wilson pass with 23 seconds left in the game at the Patriots’ goal line, preserving New England’s 28-24 victory. On a soon-to-be released video series, a part of which I recently got to watch, you’ll be able to see the rest of the story. Namely, why Butler made the play, and how the Patriots’ coaches made sure an error in Thursday’s practice by Butler would not be repeated.

It's almost like practice is useful or something.

We were anticipating a bunch of pick routes, rub routes [by Seattle],” Boyer says on the video. “We didn’t do a very good job at the point … Malcolm kind of gave some ground there. Garoppolo ended up hitting Josh Boyce for a touchdown. Obviously, as a coach, that doesn’t make you feel good. Coach Belichick, Coach Patricia, they’re like, ‘Malcolm, you’ve got to play this a little better  … You’ve got to stick your foot in the ground and go and not give any ground and beat him to the junction point and make a play on the ball.’ ”

In the Super Bowl, of course, Butler went around the attempted pick by the first man in the stack—Jermaine Kearse, who was being blocked by cornerback Brandon Browner—and powered into position for the interception. Butler blasted Ricardo Lockette and caught the Wilson pass simultaneously. The coaches’ point hit home.

It did hit home. It was a great play by Malcolm Butler and he learned from his mistake in practice. So the inside story seems to be that the Patriots practiced defending this play prior to the Super Bowl and it paid off in the Super Bowl. I'm pretty sure I had heard that Butler got burnt for a TD in practice on a similar play, so maybe this wasn't quite an "inside" story. But hey, I guess Peter can't talk about Tim Tebow throughout MMQB.

Pittsburgh at New England, Sept. 10.

I’ll tell you why:

Why Peter? What reason is it? Could it be some in-depth scheduling quirk the NFL doesn't allow the public to know about? Is this matchup traditionally one of the higher rated games?

Ben Roethlisberger.

Okay. So I guess that explains it then...I guess.

So what do we have as candidates in a relatively weak New England home schedule? Philadelphia and Pittsburgh, along with the refurbished Buffalo Bills and New York Jets. Tom Brady will be on one side, and the Patriots will be favored against any team on the other sideline that first night. But the one thing the NFL can’t have is a 24-3 game at halftime. Pittsburgh is the best insurance against that risk.

And Ben Roethlisberger is the only one who plays for the Steelers, so as the quarterback of the Steelers he is the key to the defense not giving up 24 points in the first half? It makes perfect sense to me.

Philadelphia, likely with new quarterback Sam Bradford, who has missed 25 of his last 32 games with back-to-back ACL surgeries in 2013 and 2014. What if he gets hurt again, or is rusty coming back to the game?

The Jets, with Ryan Fitzpatrick or Geno Smith. Could be a debacle by halftime.

Buffalo, with Matt Cassel or EJ Manuel. Less of a chance to be a debacle at halftime, but there’s still that chance. 

Pittsburgh, with two-time Super Bowl champ Roethlisberger at the controls, a gunslinger capable of playing a four-quarter shootout with Brady.

So basically it took Peter a couple of paragraphs to explain that he thinks the opening game will be Steelers-Patriots because the Patriots don't have too many good teams coming to play them in Foxboro and the Steelers are the best team with the best quarterback that is coming to Foxboro. Wow, it took me once sentence to say it AND I saved the dramatics that Peter attempted. 

One interesting point about the opener, if it’s Steelers-Patriots: Each team would be without a suspended running back from the same pot-smoking incident in August 2014—Le’Veon Bell for Pittsburgh and LeGarrette Blount for New England.

What a nugget of coincidence! 

I'm surprised Peter didn't write,

"Two key players from both teams will be missing that first game if it is Steelers-Patriots. I'll tell you why."

"Drugs, carousing."

"Le'Veon Bell and LeGarrette Blount are both in the same boat. A drug boat that is. Let me tell you why they are in a drug boat." 

"Suspensions." 

"Both Le'Veon Bell and LeGarrett Blount won't be present for the first game of the season due to being suspended and let me tell you why." 

"Drugs, cars. What does this have to do with LeGarrette Blount and Le'Veon Bell? I'll tell you." 

"They are both suspended for the first game of the season due to an incident they both participated in where they had drugs in a car. I'll tell you more in a second." 

"They were in the same car and will be suspended the same amount of time for the same drug violation. I'll tell you in a minute which team they were on when this happened and how it's relevant now." 

"They were both on the Steelers team at the time and they would be facing each other if the Steelers-Patriots play at a certain time during the season. I'll tell you which game that is." 

"The first game of the season." 

Peter has to extend those dramatic reveals a bit.

The schedule will be announced sometime this week. I’ve been wrong before, many times on many things. But Pittsburgh-New England makes the most sense to me.

Because this may be the most competitive home game for the Patriots. It's not complicated, yet Peter got a whole section of MMQB out of it.

Andrea Kremer has an insightful story Tuesday night on “HBO Real Sports” on Jim Harbaugh, who wore out his welcome in San Francisco and is now the University of Michigan coach. The piece has detailed quotes from Niners guard Alex Boone, who says Harbaugh gave the team a great initial spark when he got there in a time of major malaise for the franchise in 2011.

Continues Boone: “He just keeps pushing you. And you’re like, ‘Dude, we got over the mountain. Stop. Let go.’ He kinda wore out his welcome. I think he just pushed guys too far.

I know. I hate it when NFL coaches are constantly trying to push professionals to be better than they think they can be. Lay off them, the 49ers had won a few Super Bowls. They were over the mountain.

There’s no question San Francisco owner Jed York wanted a little more of a kumbaya attitude with the front office out of Harbaugh that wasn’t forthcoming.

Jim Tomsula says the attitude around the team still isn't going to be all Kumbayan, it's going to be a straight American attitude. These Kumbayan people probably don't know how to motivate themselves like Americans do.

And now we see that some of the players—at least one, and I’ve heard reliably it isn’t just one—didn’t like Harbaugh as time went on in San Francisco either. Now, that doesn’t necessarily mean he should be gone. I covered the Giants in the eighties, and Bill Parcells was hardly a players’ favorite in all corners of the locker room, even after the Giants won a Super Bowl.

Bill Parcells, Bill Parcells, Bill Parcells. The standard upon which Peter King compares all head coaches.

“The players have nothing to do with him getting fired,” Boone says to Kremer. “I think that if you’re stuck in your ways enough, eventually people are just gonna say, ‘Listen, we can’t work with this.’ ”

That's a great point. The 49ers had reached the mountain, so what else did they have to accomplish at that point? So Harbaugh should have just laid off knowing he had an incredibly successful team that achieved every team goal an NFL team could achieve. Every. Single. One. Mountain. Climbed.

“Why did Pete Carroll throw that ball? Seattle’s at the half-yard line. If anybody in the league can get a half-yard, it’s Beast Mode [Marshawn Lynch].”

—Spike Lee, speaking at the premiere of “The Greatest Catch Ever,” his half-hour documentary on the David Tyree catch in Super Bowl 42 that helped the Giants end the Patriots’ dream of a 19-0 season.

Well first off, Pete Carroll doesn't call the plays. He may have signed off on this play, but he isn't directly responsible for the play call. There is no second off. That is all. 

I was at the documentary premeire Sunday in New York, and three things occurred to me:

That you were subtlety trying to brag about being at the premiere of the documentary?

1. Lee kept coming back to this in a post-doc Q&A on stage. He was legitimately angry, confused and befuddled by the Carroll call, and no one in the theater could give him a smart answer on it.

If no one in the theater could give Lee a smart answer, then obviously the theater was full of sportswriters like Peter.

2. The star of the doc was Rodney Harrison, and I don’t say that just because I work with him.

Yes, Peter probably does just say this because he works with Rodney Harrison.

He was, well, just so moved, in a bad way, by the failure to dislodge the ball from Tyree. So moved, in fact, that when he went back to his hotel after the game, he said he holed himself up in the bathroom of his room and cried.

This is probably a typical response to losing the Super Bowl, though this catch didn't win the game for the Giants so Harrison would have had a few other chances to make up for not dislodging the ball. Like maybe he could have figured out a way for Plaxico Burress to be covered better in the end zone.

“I never want to kill the dream of playing two sports. I would honestly play two sports … I may push the envelope one of these days … I know I can play in the big leagues. With the work ethic and all that, I think I definitely could, for sure. And that’s why the Texas Rangers, you know, got my rights. And they want me to play. You know, Jon Daniels, the GM, wants me to play [baseball]. We were talking about it the other day.”

—Seattle quarterback Russell Wilson, in an interview with Bryant Gumbel for Tuesday’s “HBO Real Sports” show.

I personally find Russell Wilson to be a disingenuous person. He's a great quarterback and I don't think he's much worse than other pro athletes, but I don't buy the whole "nice guy" act he puts on. I think he creates his own reality at times (for example, his comment about being "kicked off" the N.C. State football team) and this quote is simply Wilson trying to get some leverage in negotiations with the Seahawks. That's all. Wilson chose to play professional baseball and that's why he got "kicked off" the Wolfpack football team in favor of a quarterback who had talent (Mike Glennon) and actually cared to be with the team during the summer. But of course Wilson sees himself as the victim there. Now he's pretending he can or would really play for the Rangers. I don't buy it for a second.

Very interesting. This quote will make the bulletin board of Seattle GM John Schneider, who is trying to get Wilson signed long-term. The two-time NFC champion quarterback’s contract expires at the end of this season, and the two sides are eligible to sign a new deal now, though no agreement is close.

This is all it is. A feeble attempt to pretend he would actually play baseball for the Rangers rather than play in the NFL. I don't buy it and Wilson will play football over baseball for the same reason he didn't play for the Rockies and chose to transfer to Wisconsin. That reason being he'd rather be a football player and knows it would be hard to make it in baseball at this point.

“I owe private apologies to a lot of people that I disappointed but a very public one to the Browns organization and the fans that I let down. I take full responsibility for my actions and it’s my intention to work very hard to regain everyone’s trust and respect. I understand that will take time and will only happen through what I do and not what I say.’’

—Part of a statement attributed to Johnny Manziel and released through the Cleveland Browns on Friday, after his three-month stay in a rehab facility for treatment of substance abuse.

The last part is most important: Manziel said a lot between February 2014 and December 2014 about his devotion to football and his maturity and—well, all the good stuff he had to say to convince everyone in the NFL he was worth a first-round pick, 

Yes, but the only ones who believed it were the ones who wanted to believe it. The idea Manziel would stop partying and get more serious about football just as soon as he gets paid to play the sport was just not realistic. This of course wouldn't matter if he performed on the field.

For the Why Would Philip Rivers Ever Favor A Trade To Tennessee crowd:

Rivers is a homebody.

He and wife Tiffany, both from northern Alabama, have their strongest family ties to the Deep South.

Yes, but Tennessee is not the Deep South. Maybe northern Alabama is, but Tennessee is not.

Rivers was born in Decatur, Ala., 114 miles south of Nashville.

Rivers was a high school football star in Athens, Ala., 97 miles south of Nashville. 

The closest NFL franchise to Athens, Ala., by far, is Tennessee. The Atlanta Falcons are twice as far away.

In his most accurate season as an NFL quarterback, 2013, Rivers’ offensive coordinator was Ken Whisenhunt, now the Titans coach and a fervent Rivers fan.

It makes sense, but the thought of Rivers in Tampa Bay with Evans and Jackson is terrifying to me.

Let me make it clear that I am not saying Rivers would rather play anywhere else but San Diego. But too many people wonder why he’d ever want to play for Tennessee. Those are a few clues.

"Tennessee bound for Rivers? Maybe. Why? Peter will get to this."

"Why would Philip Rivers like to play in Tennessee? I will tell you in a minute."

I should probably be happy that Peter didn't have any dramatics surrounding why Rivers would like to play in Tennessee.

Ten Things I Think I Think

1. I think there are two points about Aaron Hernandez that can’t be forgotten.

I should probably just be happy that Peter didn't write he has a few "bullet points" regarding items about Hernandez that can't be forgotten. Peter would write that, Richard Deitsch would defend him saying Peter takes too much shit and then Peter would apologize explaining that he didn't know guns shot bullets.

One, if a player has strong ties to a sordid past—either gang-related or simply sordid in some other way—it’s not very smart for that player to be playing in the backyard of his youth. Hernandez’s hometown of Bristol, Conn., is 115 miles from Foxboro.

Well Hernandez certainly wasn't going to request that he didn't play for the Patriots because he was afraid he would end up murdering someone. The Patriots probably didn't know the extent to which Hernandez had gang ties.

As Greg Bedard reported last month, Hernandez went to the combine in 2013, ostensibly to ask Bill Belichick for a trade to distance himself from some dangerous friends back home. Bedard couldn’t nail down the details of the story. Was Hernandez trying to start a new life and just couldn’t get out of his current one?

Hmmm...this seems like an action that was too self-aware for a guy who later committed murder.

Two: The Patriots can, and should, be faulted for their private-eye work, or lack of it, before giving Hernandez a rich contract in 2012. It’s true that teams can’t know everything about their players, but I’d think it’d be reasonable to expect that if you’re going to commit $40 million to a player on your team with a history of some transgressions off the field (and Hernandez did have them at Florida), you’d do more investigating than the Patriots did before signing him to the rich extension.

Perhaps the Patriots did what they thought was a sufficient amount of investigation into Hernandez prior to the draft and then prior to his signing an extension. I would imagine the Patriots looked into Hernandez prior to drafting him and then the organization saw him all the time when he was actually a member of the Patriots. In hindsight, more investigating makes sense, but the Patriots may have felt like they knew Aaron Hernandez. Besides, plenty of NFL players have gang ties and that doesn't mean they end up murdering someone. It's fun to fault the Patriots for what they should have known, but whether a guy will commit murder or not after being drafted by an NFL team isn't exactly predictable.

3. I think I’m starting to have my mind changed. I’ve thought all along that Adrian Peterson has likely played his last game for Minnesota, because he obviously doesn’t want to be there. But the question is: What team out there wants to commit $13 million in cash to a 30-year-old running back—albeit a great one—with salaries of $15 million in 2016 and $17 million in 2017 on the horizon?

That's a great question and one reason I thought it was a bit silly that Peter thought Peterson could force his way out of Minnesota. Peterson can hold out of camp all he wants, but he's only getting older and more expensive for whatever team trades for him. While Peterson has leverage over the Vikings, the Vikings have leverage in that Peterson understands if he wants to play in the NFL, time isn't on his side and he can't afford to hold out of training camp.

I don’t believe Vikings GM Rick Spielman will be pressured into a deal. And I don’t believe Peterson will choose to forfeit the weekly paychecks of $765,000 this season. So though it may get ugly, I think there’s an increasing chance the Vikings are not going to bend to Peterson by draft weekend unless the offer for him is a high pick or picks.

I feel sad for Adrian Peterson that he thinks this is going to work. Running backs are being devalued, Peterson is on the wrong side of 30, and he's a very expensive player with a weird history of tangling with the court system over the whipping of his kids. He's got baggage, so Peterson may want to just play for the Vikings.

5. I think if I were the Giants at No. 9, I’d take Trae Waynes over Brandon Scherff. Rare cornerbacks—and the 6-1, sub-4.4-in-the-40 Waynes is potentially quite rare—are harder to find than very good offensive line prospects. Pro Football Focushas Waynes

Is "Pro Football Focushas" the international version of "Pro Football Focus"?

with problems on change of direction, which would be a issue with a cornerback, so it’ll be interesting to see how teams factor that in—if they agree—as the first round approaches.

I can't imagine why a cornerback would need to change direction.

6. I think the Seahawks players did a smart thing, both in inviting new tight end Jimmy Graham along on a training/fun trip to Hawaii last week, and in poking public fun at the feud they had from the 2013 season with Graham. Before a playoff game, Bruce Irvin and Graham jawed at each other on the field, and last week Irvin sent out a photo on Instagram of Graham having to be restrained from fighting Irvin. They were play-acting.

Oh, so they were play-acting and weren't really going to fight? Thanks for clearing that up Peter. If you had not cleared it up then I'm sure your readers would have been so foolish as to think Bruce Irvin would Instagram a picture of him fighting one of his new teammates.

Also, Jimmy Graham IS soft. I don't want that to get confused.

8. I think Georgia running back Todd Gurley, five months after ACL surgery, got some good news the other day at the combine medical re-check in Indianapolis. So good, in fact, that one team interested in Gurley now thinks it’s legitimately possible he wouldn’t have to start the year on the physically unable to perform list; he could well be active. Seems little doubt Gurley will be a first-round pick.

Draft Todd Gurley or pay $45 million for three years of Adrian Peterson...I know which one I would take personally.

9. I think one name stands above others on the Mysteries of the 2015 Draft list: wide receiver Dorial Green-Beckham. Boom or bust. Very big boom or very big bust. A GM who takes Green-Beckham in the first round is a GM who feels very secure in his job

Just write it Peter. You know you want to. List the same teams you always list that could draft a player like Green-Beckham and surround him with veteran players who will show him the right way. The Patriots, Seahawks, etc. Or have the Patriots been kicked off that list due to the whole "Aaron Hernandez committed murder so there goes the Patriot Way" issue?

10. I think these are my non-football thoughts of the week:

Quick joke for college football fans...did you know Nick O'Leary is Jack Nicklaus' grandson? You would think this could get mentioned every once in a while.

e. I’m not much of an NBA fan (in fact, I’m not one at all),

And here comes a conclusion based on Peter's lack of experience in watching NBA games. It's a guarantee Peter will come to a definitive conclusion after stating he doesn't watch the NBA.

but did anyone notice the Celtics finished the year on a 17-7 run and ended 40-42? Brad Stevens must be pretty good.

Yes Peter, Brad Stevens must be pretty good based on your observation the Celtics played well at the end of the year in a bad Eastern Conference. You don't watch the NBA at all, but you feel free to come to conclusions about players/coaches/teams in the NBA.

f. Paul Blart. One of the great, and most apt, names in film history.

Peter King. One of the lofty, and most apt, names in history for Peter's opinion of himself.

h. The Edmonton Oilers won the lottery to pick number one in the 2015 NHL draft. Okay. Shouldn’t sports leagues have some sort of rule how many times you can have the top picks in an X-year span? Since 2010, and including this year, Edmonton has picked (in order) first, first, first, seventh, third and first. This year they’re bound to take an incredible prospect, Connor McDavid. Edmonton must have taken some other incredible players the past five drafts, and the Oilers still stink. Why reward this?

What's the alternative, Peter? Be a problem solver, not just a problem spotter. The lottery is designed to allow the worst teams an opportunity to acquire the best players in the draft. If Peter thinks this shouldn't be rewarded, then I'm sure the NHL would love to hear suggestions on how to fix this. Suggestions that of course Peter doesn't have.

j. Maybe I’m wrong about this. Tell me if I am. But to continue to reward a team that simply can’t turn it around … It just seems wrong to me.

Says the guy who covers a sport where the Raiders have picked in the Top 10 over the last decade. What's the alternative that Peter prefers? A lottery like the NBA (a sport Peter doesn't watch) has? It's not like there aren't teams in the NBA who get Top 10 picks every year and still can't turn their team around.

k. Coffeenerdness: It’s okay on a warm afternoon to stray from coffee. You can have the occasional unsweetened iced green tea, and you’ll get the desired jolt. And the quenching of the thirst at the same time.

Thanks for the permission to drink unsweetened iced green tea. By the way, "unsweetened iced green tea" sounds like the way someone who is in the 1% of income earners like Peter is would drink iced tea. I can think of no loftier, more haughty way to drink iced tea.

n. Man, that Britt McHenry video is tough to watch.

She's on television, bitch.

o. This must have been weird: The Giants, riding an eight-game losing streak, got their World Series rings Saturday night.

It possibly could have been more motivational than weird. The Giants did win the World Series last year. It would be weird if there were few players from the 2014 World Series winning Giants team still on the roster when they got their World Series rings. 

The Adieu Haiku

Draft’s 10 days away.  
Still. Explain that. I beg you.
Thing should be in March.


Why would Peter's readers have to explain this? It's the NFL's decision. Also, the haiku is still pointless and useless.