Apparently the interwebs and people taking to each other through machines has hijacked all forms of communication. If you didn't see the Carmelo deal on Twitter, one of your Facebook friends put it as their status. Maybe you were watching a meaningless regular season college basketball game on ESPN2 (I couldn't resist taking a shot there) when the news flashed across the ESPN Bottom Line. Or maybe you just happened to check a random sports website and the news magically appeared. Regardless of how you found out, this blockbuster trade still has the feel of a "where were you when it happened" moment, despite everyone's ability to predict the outcome beforehand.Once the trade happened, you analyzed the boatload of moving parts. As most people have already noted, your reaction was probably along the lines of, "Wow, the Knicks gave up a lot. Maybe too much." Don't worry, I had that same reaction. But then I broke down the parts (we'll ignore the garbage/"you're only in this trade to make the salaries work" guys.
From the Knicks' standpoint, the significant contributors went from:
Stoudemire
Turiaf
Chandler
Gallinari
Felton
Fields
Douglas
Williams
Mozgov
to
Stoudemire
Turiaf
Carmelo
Fields
Billups
Carter
Douglas
Williams
In short, the Knicks' only significant loss was depth in the front court. Williams, Douglas, Turiaf and Fields are all suitable role players capable of playing off-ball. If we say that Billups and Felton are roughly the same, the Knicks essentially traded Chandler and Gallinari plus a bunch of invaluable parts. (You may say that Anthony Randolph isn't useless, but the Knicks were building for a win-now team, something to which Randolph clearly does not belong.) In terms of net-gain, I'm a satisfied customer. Add in one more significant piece and the Knicks are serious contender.
More troubling, however, is the Knicks' front office tactics. Maybe I missed something. Maybe Marc Stein or Chris Broussard (who, by the way, has taken over as the official "main scoop" guy of ESPN. Seriously, when any NBA story breaks, he's literally the only ESPN guy to pick it up. Marc Stein and Chris Sheridan really need to pick it up. Same with Chris Mortensen. Adam Schefter owns him right now.) already explained this one. So correct me if I'm wrong, but weren't the Knicks in a complete position of power?
If I'm sitting in the Knicks' front office, I'm letting this trade drag out until Thursday at 3. When reports surfaced of the Knicks dealing Anthony Randolph, Eddy Curry and Wilson Chandler to the Denver in a three team trade with Minnesota, I was surprised that anonymous GMs said they would never agree to the deal. Of course that deal is not even. But would Denver really have a choice? Carmelo refused to go anywhere but New York. The Knicks had all kinds of power to low ball the Nuggets into submission. Despite clinging to erroneous hopes that Melo would stay or agree to an NJ Deal, the Denver GMs are not stupid: they saw what happened with Bosh and LeBron. They had to make a deal, no matter how terrible it was. While the Nets offer may have been better, their need for Melo to resign eliminated them from the equation. The Knicks only real competitor, then, was a team willing to rent him. The Mavs and Rockets did not have the Knicks' assets. The Magic already overhauled their roster this season.
When Ian O'Connor wrote that the Knicks needed put Mozgov in the deal, I once again recoiled. Why? Once again, there was no competing offer. If the Knicks held their ground, the Nuggets would have had no choice but to cave. Do I blame Donnie Walsh? No. D'Antoni? No. I'll throw that one on James Dolan. His irrational fear that Melo might slip away seriously cost the Knicks. Imagine if the Knicks had been able to keep either Gallinari or Chandler. All the talk about the Knicks being nothing more than a 1st round playoff exit disappears.
More frightening for the NBA as a whole, however, is the precedent that this is setting. With star players rarely spending their entire careers in one place, a team's peak is much shorter than its valley. As with most sports, teams continuously go from periods of great success to epic failure. The current makeup of the NBA only hammers home the fact that teams lacking a superstar are destined for years of aimless wandering until that next superstar is found. Despite Denver's ability to compile young assets and draft picks, their only hope for success is to either lure a class A free agent (which is unlikely since Chris Paul, Deron Williams and Dwight Howard will not leave their respective teams for a worse situation) or to hit the jackpot in the draft. And its the latter that ultimately matters most. Besides the Knicks, every team that has compiled an assembly of stars has already had one in place through the draft.
Take the Jazz, for example. Deron Williams was that centerpiece. Al Jefferson was star #2. One more piece and this team is a serious contender. But their lack of trade assets and the recent savage murder of Jerry Sloan by Williams lead them to conclude that Melo-drama would potentially repeat itself. So they executed a preemptive strike, facing the reality that this team was stuck in the Atlanta zone (3-6 seed with no chance of winning the NBA title, and no trade assets or cap space to improve). Yet unlike the Nuggets, the Jazz addressed their situation ahead of time, giving them added leverage. If the Nets were unwilling to deal 2 1st rounders, Favors and Harris, the Jazz could have simply walked away. The Nets were not going to wait a year for the next deadline to bring the appropriate pressure that would have facilitated a better deal. But Utah's hand was forced by the growing trend of the NBA: superstar disloyalty. So much so that the Jazz were willing to move their best player a year and a half in advance and begin the process of rebuilding now.
In the end, the Jazz made the right move at the right time. Why wait and suffer through two first or second round playoff exits? You might as well just start over sooner and try again.
