There was a time many, many, many years ago that I did a full preview of the upcoming MLB season. I enjoyed it, but haven't had the time to do it since. I do want to get my predictions on virtual paper so everyone can see how stupid I am, you know, being one of those people who likes to bask in the glow of his own wrongness. So here are my 2015 MLB Predictions and they are all going to be absolutely correct...or not. I'll give the standings for each division with each team's record.
AL East
Baltimore Orioles (91-71): Ugh, I'm nervous about having the Orioles win this division. It's either them, the Red Sox or the Blue Jays. The Orioles lost Nelson Cruz, but essentially get back Chris Davis, Matt Wieters, and Manny Machado from injury. It's not a wash, but I think having a reliable pitching staff wins them the AL East this year. I read this in "SI" but doesn't putting Ubaldo Jimenez in the bullpen as a set-up guy make a lot of sense? He'll be able to throw harder for a shorter period of time. I think it's worth a shot. Great idea, "SI"!
Boston Red Sox (89-73): Unfortunately for Dan Shaughnessy, the Red Sox may be good this upcoming season. It's quite a disappointment to him. I like this team on paper, but I can't figure out whether the pitching staff is going to be brilliant or it's fool's gold. I wasn't a huge fan of the Hanley Ramirez signing, especially since I didn't think they needed more OF's. Still, he's a game changer when he hits. I can't have them winning the division because I can't figure out if they have a great pitching staff or a bunch of #4 and #5 guys.
Toronto Blue Jays (84-78): It looks like they are going to have to outscore other teams, which they can definitely do. The pitching staff is my area of concern. I don't trust the bullpen and even the best of lineups aren't going to be able to win games with a rotation that has real questions in spots #3-#5. Is Hutchison healthy? What the hell can Sanchez and Norris do, if anything? Maybe this is where Russell Martin earns the money he was given.
Tampa Bay Rays (77-85): The Rays may have the best rotation in the AL East. In reality, they have a bunch of young guys and Matt Moore is coming off surgery and won't be ready until 1-2 months after the season starts. The Rays always beat expectations with Joe Maddon as their manager, but the lineup looks very unimpressive and is counting on a rookie (Steven Souza) to provide power. I shouldn't underestimate the Rays, but I'm not sure they will have enough hitting to have a winning record. I can't get behind a lineup of John Jaso, Nick Franklin, Rene Rivera, and Asrubal Cabrera. I can't.
New York Yankees (72-90): Oh no. They are a veteran team full of expensive players who have injury issues. I firmly believe A-Rod is going to have a good year. I think his stats will be .278/.345/.485 with 23 home runs. I know, I'm a sucker. Is Tanaka going to tear his elbow up, was last year an aberration for Sabathia or the continuing of a trend? Will they get anything from Texeira at first base? Can Carlos Beltran stay healthy? The Yankees don't have the starting pitching and I don't think McCann will rebound as much as he needs to, Tex can stay healthy and Stephen Drew should not be the regular second baseman. Basically, there are too many things that can go wrong with this team and I think injuries and ineffectiveness are more likely to occur than Beltran/McCann/Tex to remember how to stay healthy and hit, which is what it will take to win more than 80 games in my opinion.
AL Central
Cleveland Indians (93-69): I am very high on the Indians this year. They have the reigning Cy Young winner, Trevor Bauer has fixed whatever ailed him and I like the rest of the rotation as well. Zach McAllister can step in and hopefully be solid for the Indians if one of the other starters falters. As far as the lineup goes, Kipnis is healthy, Brandon Moss is a great addition and I think Michael Brantley will win the AL MVP (hot take alert!). As for the negatives...Swisher isn't exactly ascending as a player and it's always scary to hear Michael Bourn isn't stealing bases during spring training because he's saving it up for the season. Still, this is the team to beat in the American League if you ask me.
Detroit Tigers (88-74): If I paid attention to omens, Justin Verlander starting the season on the DL would be a bad omen. Screw it, I pay attention to omens, but don't care. I don't think it will be a lost year in Detroit. David Price is a free agent and Yoennis Cespedes is a free agent after this year too. So they'll be ready to have contract years. The bullpen scares the shit out of me and I have no belief Victor Martinez will repeat his 2014 season. Still, the bullpen is a reason I won't pick the Tigers to win the World Series, not a reason I can't see them winning 88 games. They still have a strong lineup and a really good #1-#3 in the starting rotation. I think that's good for almost 90 wins.
Chicago White Sox (84-78): The White Sox spent money to put a better team on the field. When has this ever not worked? On paper, they look great. At some point there will be an injury to the pitching staff and the weak links in the lineup are going to fail to show up when the offense needs them to if the White Sox want to compete for a playoff spot. There's not much after Rodon in the minors to fill in for the pitching staff and the same goes for position players. There isn't a ton of room for things to go wrong on the season, which will inevitably happen. Jeff Samardzija had never been above 174 innings in the majors prior to two seasons ago and he's now pitching 213 innings and 219 innings over the last two seasons. I believe he is a free agent after this year, so maybe he will wait until he signs a new contract to get injured. I believe the White Sox are a very top-heavy team and the lineup isn't good enough to handle the inevitable injury or young guys like Avisail Garcia, Tyler Flowers or Conor Gillaspie not progressing throughout the year.
Kansas City Royals (77-85): Yeah, last year was fun and all...but it's a new year in a much tougher division. The Indians have been building to become the team they will be in 2015, the White Sox are better and the Tigers are still the Tigers. The Royals were one late-inning rally short of losing the one-game Wild Card playoff, and while the bullpen is intact, I see the rotation and the lineup getting worse. Alex Rios will already be battling a thumb injury all year and Kendry Morales could suck or be great. Who knows? Volquez, Vargas and Guthrie at the back-end of the rotation scares me as well.
Minnesota Twins (73-89): If it were 2017 or 2018 I may end up being more positive. For now, it's putting Ervin Santana in the rotation in the hopes he eats innings, relying on Ricky Nolasco and signing Tori Hunter for some "Remember when he played for us before, wasn't that fun?" nostalgia. Wait, Hunter is also a great clubhouse presence, so that will add at least 20 wins to the Twins' total, right? I'm being snide and the Twins will probably take a leap, but it's not going to be this year. The rotation is still bad and I don't think Brian Dozier will repeat 2014.
AL West
Los Angeles Angels (93-69): To buy this 93 win prediction you would also have to buy a few other things. Garrett Richards is for real, the Angels will figure out the issue at second base, Kole Calhoun is a MLB starter, and the Angels bullpen will be an area of strength. I think by buying on three of those things the Angels will get to 93 wins. Mike Trout is great, obviously. I think Pujols will still hit well at the age of 35 and the Angels will benefit from the fact the AL West isn't going to be very good absent the Angels and the Mariners. I like the rotation and bullpen, then think they will hit well enough to win the division.
Seattle Mariners (90-72): I love the addition of Nelson Cruz, as well as the step forward I think Taijuan Walker is going to make. I think the Mariners have improved offensively while still having a strong pitching staff. I see the bullpen regressing a bit, but they will still have a really good pen. The strength still lies in pitching. J.A. Happ is going to enjoy pitching in Seattle, Hisashi Iwakuma is an underrated starter and I've made my love for Walker clear so I won't do it again. I think the Mariners finally have some hitting to match their pitching.
Oakland A's (78-84): I always feel dumb counting out Billy Beane and the A's. It's not the lack of household names on the team that concerns me. It's that they won't have a full season of Jarrod Parker and A.J. Griffin. If they were healthy at the beginning of the year then I may feel differently. Maybe. There is a lot for the lineup to make up for that was lost from last season. Zobrist will probably have a good year because he's playing for a new contract, otherwise the A's are counting on retreads like Brett Lawrie and Ike Davis to bust out of the struggles that has prevented them both from reaching their potential. There's just not enough starting pitching and hitting for me to believe they can win a Wild Card spot.
Houston Astros (72-90): The Astros are a punchline in some circles for the way their front office thinks. I consider them the same way I consider the Philadelphia 76ers (I know, that's not a good start to any paragraph). They have their way of rebuilding their team and we will see in the next year or two if it works out. Evan Gattis will be brilliant as a DH, because he's a disaster in the field, but the Astros have the makings of a good lineup with Altuve, Carter, and Springer in there as well. Their problem is the same problem a lot of MLB teams have. Starting pitching. Is a rotation with a back end of Scott Feldman, Brett Oberholtzer, and whoever ends up with the 5th rotation spot for most of the year going to win more than 80 games? Nah. The bullpen is improving, which is good, because it has to be.
Texas Rangers (67-95): I did say earlier I was ignoring omens, so I will try to ignore the Rangers managed to lose their top prospect and their best pitcher prior to the season beginning. Last season was a lost season for the Rangers and I'm afraid this year is looking the same. Everything that went wrong last year can't go wrong again, right? They will hit the ball well, as long as Prince Fielder is healthy, Shin-Soo Choo bounces back and Elvis Andrus remembers that he actually has to hit the baseball. The starting pitching is where I struggle. The loss of Darvish moved Holland up to #1 and he's already feeling some injuries, which means the two guys I'm supposed to have faith in are Yovani Gallardo and Colby Lewis. The bullpen doesn't feel set other than Feliz as the closer. I feel like even if the hitters who need to turn it around manage to do so, I don't think the Rangers can win more than 75 games.
AL Playoffs
Wild Card Game: Seattle over Boston
ALDS: Cleveland over Seattle, Baltimore over Los Angeles
ALCS: Cleveland over Baltimore
NL East
Washington Nationals (98-64): You may have heard, but the Nationals have gotten themselves a pretty good starting rotation. This is a team that I would have to nitpick to say something bad about. I'll try. Umm...Ryan Zimmerman has never played first before and Yunel Escobar can be a cancer in the clubhouse. Will the high expectations take a toll on a team that hasn't really ever met the expectations some have had? The Nationals are expected to win. What happens when a few injuries hit (like Span's injury to start the year) and the team maybe struggles? That's all I got. Otherwise, the big question around the Nationals is whether the bullpen can be strong again without Tyler Clippard. The Nationals are a very good team, even if they are a team whose best players have suffered injuries over the past few years. The only thing stopping this team are factors like injuries and perceived expectations that are impossible to predict.
Miami Marlins (88-74): I love this team. I do. I originally had them down at 93 wins and had them in the World Series. I won't take credit for this if it happens, but the ceiling is there. If Jose Fernandez comes back strong (which is questionable after TJ surgery) then he is as good as any pitcher in the National League. Dee Gordon will regress from his hot start last year, but Yelich and Ozuna are on their way up, while Alvarez, Cosart, Latos with Haren as the 5th starter isn't a bad rotation. Of course, the Marlins also have Giancarlo Stanton in their lineup. I think they are going to be very good this year and I could see a World Series appearance as long as their hitters don't disappear or regress.
New York Mets (82-80): Jake deGrom didn't come out of nowhere last year to pitch well, but I had barely heard of him and I try to pay attention to these sorts of things. The Mets are being sneaky in my opinion. They are improving steadily and Michael Cuddyer was an interesting addition. He can hit for sure, but he's 36 years old, coming off injuries and hit .282/.316/.418 away from Coors Field last year. The Mets will probably improve again this year, especially given Matt Harvey is back from TJ surgery (isn't every pitcher back from TJ surgery at some point these days?...it's like a one year sabbatical all pitchers end up taking), and the rotation is deep with more guys like Syndergaard on the way up. I'm still a little unsure they put it all together and make a play for the Wild Card.
Philadelphia Phillies (68-94): I don't expect Cliff Lee back this season. The Phillies should trade Cole Hamels for a ton of prospects and they probably will. The Phillies are rebuilding while trying to shed some of the large contracts they have on the books (which doesn't explain the Utley extension to me), but they will compete on days when Hamels is on the mound. Plus, they get to play the Braves many times this year, which always helps. The Phillies seem to be headed on the right track to a rebuild. That's progress.
Atlanta Braves (66-96): I'll start off positive. They did a great job rebuilding the farm system that was becoming barren. Alex Wood and Julio Teheran are really good pitchers. Trading every good hitter they had was probably smart, because the team wasn't going anywhere with Upton, Gattis and Heyward in the lineup. No matter how good Wood, Shelby Miller and Teheran are going to be, the offense is awful. There is one player other teams really have to worry about hurting them, surrounded by a bunch of low OBP guys. They may score 0.8 runs per games this year, but hey, they kept Kimbrel around to close the 10 games where they have the lead in the 9th inning. Brilliant! Right idea to rebuild, but the wrong year to expect anything but awfulness.
NL Central
St. Louis Cardinals (88-74): The odds of Jason Heyward staying healthy and having a career year are off the charts. Then he'll sign a new contract, lose his power, and go back to being just a really good hitting excellent defensive outfielder. There's nothing wrong with that. The Cardinals have a deep farm system, so a few injuries won't have a huge impact, and they have strengthened their bullpen with the addition of Jordan Walden while also having one of the best rotations in the National League. A lineup of Adams, Heyward, Holliday, Carpenter, Wong and Molina is going to be good enough to win the National League, even without a rotation and bullpen that doesn't have too many holes. I see no reason the Cardinals don't win the NL Central and they can call up prospects to perform well in September and October for them.
Cincinnati Reds (85-77): I probably like the Reds more than others do. Others don't pick the Reds to be second in the division because the rotation has gotten worse on paper. The Reds suffered an enormous amount of injuries last season and I can't see that happening again. They have one of the best pitchers in the NL (Johnny Cueto) and one of the best hitters in the NL (Joey Votto). All questions surround the pitching staff. Mike Leake eats innings, which isn't a terrible thing when the lineup has the potential to score enough runs to win a game, while I think Robert Stephenson gets called up as soon as possible. I am nervous about this pick because I'm counting on the Reds' staff to all pitch well and the bullpen that seems rather unsettled to being settled with Tony Cingrani surprisingly being in the pen.
Chicago Cubs (82-80): Not quite yet. The Cubs are a popular pick in the National League this season. They have improved, no doubt about that. While I just got done betting on the Reds, I'm not quite as ready to bet on Hammel, Arrieta, Wood, and Hendricks all having good seasons. If they do, great, the Cubs have a chance to win the division. Kris Bryant will come up to the majors at some point and with Rizzo, Soler and Baez also in the lineup the Cubs will score runs. I'm not sure it's going to be this year when it happens. I'm interested to see how Joe Maddon manages when there is more pressure for his team to succeed. The Rays were always expected to contend in a "Man, they are going to do it again" way, like it wasn't expected, but the Cubs and their fans are expecting to compete. Theo Epstein has done a good job. One more year...
Pittsburgh Pirates (76-86): I think losing Russell Martin is big. He got A LOT of money from the Blue Jays, but he handled the Pirates staff well. I think the starting rotation margin of error is so thin. Gerrit Cole has never gone above 138 innings, Francisco Liriano hasn't thrown more than 162 innings since 2010. I don't see the rotation depth being there and once they start counting on A.J. Burnett and Vance Worley then I think the run prevention strategy for the Pirates starts to break down a bit. The Pirates should have a great outfield, but I'm shaky on them replacing Russell Martin with Francisco Cervelli. I'm not sure the Pirates are able to make the playoffs for a third straight year.
Milwaukee Brewers (66-96): The good news for the Pirates is they are not the Brewers. Adam Lind is an upgrade at first base. Of course, that's an upgrade over Mark Reynolds. The best way for the Brewers to make the playoffs is if the rotation stays healthy AND Mike Fiers/Jimmy Nelson live up to expectations. The Brewers have a pretty good lineup, but they have redone the bullpen this year. Most people know bullpen variance from one year to another is almost unpredictable at times, so I expect a redone bullpen probably will have more variance. K-Rod is back and is effective even if he isn't K-Rod anymore. The margin of error is too thin for the Brewers with their lack of depth to overcome the eventual injuries. I try not to predict injuries, but when it comes to lack of depth it's a concern for me.
NL West
Los Angeles Dodgers (94-68): I didn't hate the moves the Dodgers made. Joc Peterson needed an everyday spot in the lineup and Howie Kendrick is an upgrade at second base. I think he helps to make up for the loss of Kemp's bat. I'm still shaky on the rotation after Greinke and Kershaw, especially given McCarthy, Ryu, and Brett Anderson are not the least injury prone trio of pitchers. Still, the Dodgers have some minor league depth in the starting rotation. The addition of Grandal will give the Dodgers some pop at the catcher position and the bullpen should be good enough to take the division. I can't buy the Dodgers to go too far into the playoffs though.
San Francisco Giants (86-76): It's an odd numbered year, so the Giants should suck, right? Maybe not suck. The starting pitching is really good and deep, but Casey McGehee isn't going to replace Pablo Sandoval any time soon. The Giants still have a really good bullpen and they have really good starters. I'm perpetually worried about the Giants hitting the baseball and this year is no different. Especially with Pence starting off the season injured, I don't see where they can win the division or get a Wild Card spot in an increasingly deep National League.
Colorado Rockies (81-81): Every year I feel like I sort of buy the Rockies to exceed expectations and every year I look more stupid. It's tradition though. The rotation is frightening on paper (in a bad way), but I think Jordan Lyles and Tyler Matzek are on their way up. Counting on Tulo and CarGon to stay healthy is a fool's errand, but I've proven over and over I'm a fool. Jon Gray could end up being in the rotation at the end of the year. I think the Rockies are buoyed by good health and a pitching staff that overachieves. That includes the bullpen, which has an 87 year old closer.
San Diego Padres (77-85): It's a cliche at this point to mention the terrible outfield defense. Still, this outfield defense will be terrible. Justin Upton is a disaster in left field, Will Myers isn't a centerfielder if you ask me and Matt Kemp is bound to pull some muscle at some point. I've seen this lineup of mashers before and it didn't turn out like that team thought it would. I'm afraid that will happen here too. There are so many quality right-handed pitchers in the National League that the lineup will struggle at times against righties. The starting pitching is pretty good, though Shields is getting older and "Big Game James" is really just "Innings Eater and Doesn't Kill You by Giving Up Runs James." My issue with the rotation is with the 5th starter. If Brandon Morrow doesn't get the spot, I'm not sure who will. Joaquin Benoit is the closer, which he has done once before. He's 37. We'll see. I feel a letdown coming for the Padres.
Arizona Diamondbacks (65-97): Not that Trevor Cahill is great, but trading him pretty much ensures the Diamondbacks are absolutely rebuilding this year. It's a shame, because Paul Goldschmidt is a great hitter and Yasmany Tomas could be fun to watch. The Diamondbacks' rotation did not pitch nearly enough innings last year and there were moves to have this change in the offseason, but I'm not sure it's going to change. I'm much more positive about some of the pitching they have in the minors than I do in seeing Josh Collmenter and Jeremy Hellickson front the pitching staff. It's hard to say if the bullpen is good because I'm afraid it will be overworked again. While the Diamondbacks are going to hit home runs on offense, I'm afraid the opposing team will hit quite a few bombs of their own.
NL Playoffs
Wild Card Game: Miami over San Francisco
NLDS: Washington over Miami, St. Louis over Los Angeles
NLCS: St. Louis over Washington
World Series
St. Louis over Cleveland
Showing posts with label mlb preview. Show all posts
Showing posts with label mlb preview. Show all posts
Friday, April 3, 2015
Monday, April 2, 2012
0 comments 2012 MLB Preview
A few years ago, I did complete previews of every MLB team where I previewed each team's offense and defense. I believe I did three or four teams at a time in a post. It was fun, but also a lot of work, so I've opted to not do that this year. I'm lazy. I can be wrong without writing 9-10 posts explaining in great detail just how wrong I am. So I figured I would embarrass myself yet again this year and preview the 2012 season and try to pick how each division and how the playoffs will go. Because I have a National League AND East Coast Bias, let's start with the NL East.
NL East
Philadelphia Phillies (94-68): I believe I chose the Braves to win this division last year. For the time being, I'm going to stick with the Phillies to win the NL East. Though I do worry about their bullpen and how long Ryan Howard will be out, I still think its their division to lose. They still have three top pitchers and with Vance Worley's emergence the offense could handle a small step back. Plus, Hunter Pence will be an annoying terror this year. A Top-3 MVP vote count isn't out of the question for him.
Atlanta Braves (88-74): I shudder to put them here and probably will regret it. I have real questions about their ability to hit since they haven't made too personnel changes and it seems like 1-2 of their relievers are due for Tommy John surgery due to the workload they had last year. I put them here because I believe Heyward, Uggla, and Prado will increase their level of play and hit and the pitching stays steady. If that doesn't happen, I can see a 4th place finish easily.
Washington Nationals (84-78): I really like this Nationals team. I like their starting pitching and think it has really improved since last year. Gonzalez was a nice pickup and Strasburg is back from injury. My issue lies in the fact I don't like the batters up the middle. Desmond, Espinosa, and Bernadina are low OBP guys who I'm not sure will get on-base enough to score runs. Even with Jayson Werth remembering how to hit I think this team is a year away.
Miami Marlins (81-81): I'm not buying. Call me a contrarian or in denial. I don't believe Reyes can stay healthy all year, Buerhle is not a #2 starter, and behind (injury-prone) Josh Johnson is Ricky Nolasco and Carlos Zambrano...guys who are question marks (Zambrano) or a bit overrated (Nolasco). Outside of Heath Bell, I'm not convinced by the bullpen either. This team is better, but the competition in the division has gotten better also.
New York Mets (70-92): If you had told me in 2001 I would be feeling bad for the New York Mets then I would call you crazy. I do feel bad for them. I really like Davis, Duda, Thole and Ruben Tejada. I don't know if that is the core for the future, but they aren't bad players. That counts for something, right? I'm not sure the pitching is going to be good spots 1-12 and I don't trust Jason Bay or David Wright to make an impact...okay, maybe I trust Wright more than Bay. Either way, even if Johan Santana is able to come back this year and pitch full time, the Mets will still struggle.
NL Central
St. Louis Cardinals (87-75): I know. What am I smoking? There's no way the Cardinals win the division this year. This is a hard division to call and there are reasons for me to dislike every team. I think despite the loss of Pujols the general mediocrity of this division will allow the Cardinals to win the division. I like the starting pitching with Wainwright, Garcia, Lohse (and whatever Carpenter can provide) and as long as Lance Berkman replicates last year (fat chance) and Carlos Beltran stays healthy (and fatter chance) they will win the division. So I'm basing my opinion on two fat chances and Allen Craig coming back healthy in May.
Cincinnati Reds (86-76): This is the popular team to pick in this division. So why am I not picking them? I don't think Mat Latos will be the kind of pitcher he was in San Diego, I don't like their overall starting pitching depth and the loss of Ryan Madsen concerns me for the bullpen. Obviously Joey Votto is an MVP candidate, but this is a Reds team I see playing better in the playoffs than during the season. Whatever that means. They just have to make the playoffs first.
Milwaukee Brewers (83-79): Even if Ryan Braun plays like he did last year, why would teams even pitch to him? Aramis Ramirez is fading, Matt Gamel never was, Alex Gonzalez can't hit a baseball pitched to him not down the middle of the plate, Rickie Weeks will get hurt...so that leaves Corey Hart. So I think this season comes down to how Corey Hart plays. I love the pitching with Marcum, Greinke, and Gallardo. I'm not sure this is a team that can withstand the loss of Prince Fielder offensively though.
Pittsburgh Pirates (78-84): Fourth place! That's not last place! The Pirates pitching doesn't look very impressive, but fortunately they play the Astros and Cubs many times this year. I look for Pedro Alvarez to get his shit together, Jose Tabata to improve, and Andrew McCutchen to start outplaying his contract less than a few months after it was signed. Yes, Eric Bedard is the opening day starter, but he probably won't be the best pitcher on the staff. That will probably be Jeff Karstens.
Chicago Cubs (75-87): This isn't the year the Cubs are supposed to compete. They are flushing all the shit down the toilet before they start cleaning the toilet (bathroom analogy!). This year is about finding out who is going to be on this team three years from now. The starting pitching isn't non-impressive, but I look for Carlos Marmol to be traded and Starlin Castro will continue to improve. Again, this isn't about this year, but about finding out what some of these players can do. Can Ian Stewart be Bill Mueller? Is Bryan LaHair just like Kevin Millar (no)? Probably not, but it's not a bad short-term plan and as bad as rebuilding sucks, it is the best move.
Houston Astros (60-102): This is a terrible team and I don't quite see much hope. The team and the farm system are rebuilding. I'm not sure why the Astros are wasting Brett Myers in the bullpen to close out games that won't need being closed out. There's not much to say other than even if the pitching staff produced, this team is made up of overpaid players, upcoming prospects, past their prime prospects, and Jed Lowrie.
NL West
Arizona Diamondbacks (91-71): I like the trade for Trevor Cahill. That trade really shored up the rotation for the Diamondbacks. Justin Upton is the kind of player who could carry a team, but he hopefully won't have to with Jason Kubel and Paul Goldschmidt in the lineup. I don't love any of the other teams in the division, but I think this is the best team in the division with the second-best starting pitching. Kennedy/Cahill/Hudson match up well with opposing teams and if the Diamondbacks get anything from Stephen Drew it is a plus.
Colorado Rockies (89-73): I'm taking a leap with the Rockies' record because I don't love the Rockies starting pitching. I really like the outfield, even if Dexter Fowler doesn't become the player we all thought he may be. Still, Cuddyer was a good and versatile addition to the outfield. I think of this as a good hitting Rockies team with just enough pitching to take one of the Wild Card spots.
San Francisco Giants (84-78): Everyone loves the Giants pitching. I just can't pick a team that starts an outfield of Melky Cabrera, Nate Schierholtz and Angel Pagan to win the division. Even with Buster Posey back, I don't trust Aubrey Huff to hit the ball well enough for the Giants to make the playoffs. I think the front office is doing the pitching staff an injustice by not giving them an offense that will score enough runs. Otherwise, that's a great pitching staff.
Los Angeles Dodgers (80-82): I don't hate the Dodgers. Don't tell T.J. Simers this. Clayton Kershaw is one of the best pitchers in baseball and Matt Kemp is one of the best hitters in baseball. Unfortunately, there are seven other players in the lineup every fifth day when Kershaw pitches and I don't think the Dodgers are strong enough in the infield (batting-wise) to make the playoffs. The rotation is very "blah" after Billingsley. Harang and Lilly are good pitchers, but not too much more. I look for T.J. Simers to enjoy the Dodgers lack of success.
San Diego Padres (71-91): Seems like they are rebuilding again. It's hard to say that though when their lineup seems to consist of guys who are guys who just aren't hitting as well as hoped at this point in their career and aren't exactly young guys. Yonder Alonso excepted of course. The starting pitching staff is all on the wrong side of 25, which doesn't sound like a big deal except for the fact these are supposed to be the prime years of their career and they aren't exactly pitching like they are in their prime. This team simply isn't good enough.
NL Playoffs
Stupid one game Wild Card playoff: Colorado over Atlanta
NLDS: Philadelphia over Colorado, Arizona over St. Louis
NLCS: Arizona over Philadelphia
Now for the American League...
AL East
New York Yankees (97-65): This is the easiest and hardest division to pick. The Blue Jays and Orioles probably aren't finishing higher than 4th. So that's easy to know. It's hard to guess how the other three teams will end up. The last time the Yankees made an effort to upgrade their pitching staff they won the World Series. I'm not comfortable going that far, but even given A-Rod's regression and Granderson probably not playing as well as he did last year, the Yankees have plenty of offense. Tex struggled in 2011 and he won't do that again in 2012.
Boston Red Sox (91-71): I'm high on the Red Sox. Sure their starting pitching seems to be a question mark, but they have the best hitter in the division, Adrian Gonzalez and I think Cody Ross will enjoy hitting in Fenway. The Red Sox can't replace Papelbon, it is impossible to find someone who as big of a douchebag as Paps is, but even harder to find as good of a closer. Still, I like the Bailey/Melancon combo. I'm buying on the Red Sox, even if the starting pitching is a bit unsettled.
Tampa Bay Rays (86-76): I'm not as high on the Rays. It took a complete collapse by the Red Sox to get the Rays in the playoffs last year and I'm not sure they are much better than they were last year. I am interested to see what Matt Joyce can do with 550 at-bats and interested to see Desmond Jennings play 150+ games. I feel weird not picking this team to win the division because up and down the roster I really like the Rays. I just think they are taking a one year step back, even with that tough starting pitching.
Toronto Blue Jays (83-79): Would it be possible for me to move Toronto to the NL Central and have the Blue Jays win the NL Central? I'd like to do that. They are a good team, but they are a few steps behind the Rays/Yankees/Red Sox at this point still. They have a solid "B-" team in a division full of "A's" and "B+'s." I'd feel better if I knew what they'd get from Colby Rasmus, Adam Lind, and Brandon Morrow. If anyone can predict the future and tell me what those guys will provide, I can make my prediction more accurate. They are a good team in a very good division.
Baltimore Orioles (72-90): Oh, the Orioles. They traded their most consistent starter for Jason Hammel and have strikeout kings Mark Reynolds and Chris Davis at the corners of the infield. Adam Jones' development has seemingly stalled and Matt Wieters could be in the same boat in one year. If I'm going to be technical about it, they don't have very good pitching at all. They have a staff of #4 and #5 guys and the fact half of their hitters can't make contact with the ball or get on-base at an average rate doesn't help things. But hey, last year they ruined the Red Sox season. That's something to hold onto for the next decade.
AL Central
Detroit Tigers (96-66): I liked the Tigers before they signed Prince Fielder. Now I really like them. If Max Scherzer and Rick Porcello pitch well this year then they are the team to beat in the American League. I expect Doug Fister to regress from how he pitched in Detroit last year, but Porcello should improve. The Tigers successfully got Brandon Inge to possibly not have 250 at-bats this year and that's a huge win. I do question whether Peralta can reproduce how he hit last year and whether Andy Dirks can be an everyday outfielder. Still, I'm feeling good about this team...even knowing Jose Valverde will blow at least one save this year.
Cleveland Indians (85-77): Hop on the bandwagon everyone! I like the Indians this year. Actually, I don't like the other teams in the division more, but still...those Indians...looking good. The Indians quietly got much better this offseason, especially in the starting pitching category. Lowe and Slowey aren't great, but they will give the Indians inning. I'm concerned about Jimenez pitching well. He has struggled since coming to Cleveland. Casey Kotchman was a good signing and Shin Soo-Choo is going to have a bounceback year. I like Jason Kipnis and I like that I like the Indians this year.
Kansas City Royals (81-81): The Royals are getting better. I'm a little surprised they are the 900th team to give Jeff Francoeur a permanent job in the outfield, but I guess there are worse options in the free agent market. There are maybe no other options with as high sense of self-worth as Francoeur has. The starting rotation isn't imposing, but I think the bullpen is pretty good, even without Soria. This team will at least hit well enough to go .500 this year, which is an improvement.
Minnesota Twins (75-87): I've never understood how the Twins won games with starters who projected to be #3 starters at-best. I don't have to wonder about that this year because they aren't going to win too many games. It's never good news when your two best hitters are complete question marks (Morneau/Mauer). I don't know if the Twins are going to hit the ball and that pitching staff still contains really average pitchers. If Mauer and Morneau can't come back to their old selves then Josh Willingham and Danny Valencia can't carry the offense.
Chicago White Sox (68-94): I can't decide how bad this team will be. I also can't decide if Robin Ventura is a genius or moron for wanting to bat Pierzynski 2nd in the batting order. I don't expect Adam Dunn to struggle this upcoming season like he did last season and I keep expecting Paul Konerko to drop in production...but that doesn't seem to be happening. I think the pitching staff is below average and I'm not even sure they can get anything from Jake Peavy at this point. There are too many question marks on this team for me to think they will win 70 games.
AL West
Los Angeles Angels (98-64): I think what scares me the most about this Angels team is their best/second-best outfielder isn't even going to probably start the year in the lineup. That's Mike Trout. Anybody think the Angels want a time machine to take the Vernon Wells trade back and sign a two-year gap guy in left field like Johnny Damon? I bet they do. This is the perfect situation for C.J. Wilson. He isn't a #2-quality starter, but he doesn't have to be on this pitching staff, but he still gets paid like a #2 starter. What's great is this Angels team added the best available bat, Albert Pujols, but their pitching can win them games even if the Angels lineup isn't hitting. I think the Angels win the division. I'm just excited to see Mike Trout play in all honesty.
Texas Rangers (93-69): The Rangers have sort of been forgotten in all the talk about Pujols and the Angels. This is still a very good team. Neftali Feliz has the stuff to be a starter and was originally a starter in the minors, so I'm not overly concerned for him making the transition. The best part is the Rangers could always move Ogando back to the rotation and have an awe-inspiring bullpen if Feliz doesn't work out. I'm just surprised Michael Young didn't demand a trade when the Rangers signed Yu Darvish. Demanding a trade is his knee-jerk reaction to any move the Rangers make. This team will hit very well and I think the starting pitching is above average, but not great.
Seattle Mariners (77-85): I get the Montero-Pineida trade more than some experts do. The Mariners wanted a quality young hitter and they knew they would have to give up a quality player in order to get a quality young hitter. I'm not as concerned about the fact Montero doesn't play the field well. Would it have been a better trade if Montero played catcher? Wouldn't that ultimately lead to the whole "When will the Mariners move Montero from catcher to preserve his health" discussion? So he can't play the field well, his job will be to hit anyway. The Mariners still don't have very good hitting up and down the lineup, but I am a bit warmed up to their pitching staff. From what I've read about Hector Noesi and Blake Beavan (the Mariner's #4/#5 starters) they will succeed in Safeco Park. I think the Mariners may be improving.
Oakland A's (65-97): The A's, on the other hand, are not improving. They spent the late Fall and Winter ridding themselves of good pitching (Gio Gonzalez/Trevor Cahill). As much of a ceiling Cespedes is supposed to have, I don't see where the offense is coming from. The A's won't have enough starting pitching to come close to competing in this division and I think it will take another year or two before the A's rebuilding plan (again) starts to allow them to compete again.
AL Playoffs
Stupid One Game Wild Card Playoff: Boston over Texas
ALDS: Boston over Los Angeles, Detroit over New York
ALCS: Detroit over Boston
World Series: Detroit over Arizona
There we go. Feel free to call me an idiot.
NL East
Philadelphia Phillies (94-68): I believe I chose the Braves to win this division last year. For the time being, I'm going to stick with the Phillies to win the NL East. Though I do worry about their bullpen and how long Ryan Howard will be out, I still think its their division to lose. They still have three top pitchers and with Vance Worley's emergence the offense could handle a small step back. Plus, Hunter Pence will be an annoying terror this year. A Top-3 MVP vote count isn't out of the question for him.
Atlanta Braves (88-74): I shudder to put them here and probably will regret it. I have real questions about their ability to hit since they haven't made too personnel changes and it seems like 1-2 of their relievers are due for Tommy John surgery due to the workload they had last year. I put them here because I believe Heyward, Uggla, and Prado will increase their level of play and hit and the pitching stays steady. If that doesn't happen, I can see a 4th place finish easily.
Washington Nationals (84-78): I really like this Nationals team. I like their starting pitching and think it has really improved since last year. Gonzalez was a nice pickup and Strasburg is back from injury. My issue lies in the fact I don't like the batters up the middle. Desmond, Espinosa, and Bernadina are low OBP guys who I'm not sure will get on-base enough to score runs. Even with Jayson Werth remembering how to hit I think this team is a year away.
Miami Marlins (81-81): I'm not buying. Call me a contrarian or in denial. I don't believe Reyes can stay healthy all year, Buerhle is not a #2 starter, and behind (injury-prone) Josh Johnson is Ricky Nolasco and Carlos Zambrano...guys who are question marks (Zambrano) or a bit overrated (Nolasco). Outside of Heath Bell, I'm not convinced by the bullpen either. This team is better, but the competition in the division has gotten better also.
New York Mets (70-92): If you had told me in 2001 I would be feeling bad for the New York Mets then I would call you crazy. I do feel bad for them. I really like Davis, Duda, Thole and Ruben Tejada. I don't know if that is the core for the future, but they aren't bad players. That counts for something, right? I'm not sure the pitching is going to be good spots 1-12 and I don't trust Jason Bay or David Wright to make an impact...okay, maybe I trust Wright more than Bay. Either way, even if Johan Santana is able to come back this year and pitch full time, the Mets will still struggle.
NL Central
St. Louis Cardinals (87-75): I know. What am I smoking? There's no way the Cardinals win the division this year. This is a hard division to call and there are reasons for me to dislike every team. I think despite the loss of Pujols the general mediocrity of this division will allow the Cardinals to win the division. I like the starting pitching with Wainwright, Garcia, Lohse (and whatever Carpenter can provide) and as long as Lance Berkman replicates last year (fat chance) and Carlos Beltran stays healthy (and fatter chance) they will win the division. So I'm basing my opinion on two fat chances and Allen Craig coming back healthy in May.
Cincinnati Reds (86-76): This is the popular team to pick in this division. So why am I not picking them? I don't think Mat Latos will be the kind of pitcher he was in San Diego, I don't like their overall starting pitching depth and the loss of Ryan Madsen concerns me for the bullpen. Obviously Joey Votto is an MVP candidate, but this is a Reds team I see playing better in the playoffs than during the season. Whatever that means. They just have to make the playoffs first.
Milwaukee Brewers (83-79): Even if Ryan Braun plays like he did last year, why would teams even pitch to him? Aramis Ramirez is fading, Matt Gamel never was, Alex Gonzalez can't hit a baseball pitched to him not down the middle of the plate, Rickie Weeks will get hurt...so that leaves Corey Hart. So I think this season comes down to how Corey Hart plays. I love the pitching with Marcum, Greinke, and Gallardo. I'm not sure this is a team that can withstand the loss of Prince Fielder offensively though.
Pittsburgh Pirates (78-84): Fourth place! That's not last place! The Pirates pitching doesn't look very impressive, but fortunately they play the Astros and Cubs many times this year. I look for Pedro Alvarez to get his shit together, Jose Tabata to improve, and Andrew McCutchen to start outplaying his contract less than a few months after it was signed. Yes, Eric Bedard is the opening day starter, but he probably won't be the best pitcher on the staff. That will probably be Jeff Karstens.
Chicago Cubs (75-87): This isn't the year the Cubs are supposed to compete. They are flushing all the shit down the toilet before they start cleaning the toilet (bathroom analogy!). This year is about finding out who is going to be on this team three years from now. The starting pitching isn't non-impressive, but I look for Carlos Marmol to be traded and Starlin Castro will continue to improve. Again, this isn't about this year, but about finding out what some of these players can do. Can Ian Stewart be Bill Mueller? Is Bryan LaHair just like Kevin Millar (no)? Probably not, but it's not a bad short-term plan and as bad as rebuilding sucks, it is the best move.
Houston Astros (60-102): This is a terrible team and I don't quite see much hope. The team and the farm system are rebuilding. I'm not sure why the Astros are wasting Brett Myers in the bullpen to close out games that won't need being closed out. There's not much to say other than even if the pitching staff produced, this team is made up of overpaid players, upcoming prospects, past their prime prospects, and Jed Lowrie.
NL West
Arizona Diamondbacks (91-71): I like the trade for Trevor Cahill. That trade really shored up the rotation for the Diamondbacks. Justin Upton is the kind of player who could carry a team, but he hopefully won't have to with Jason Kubel and Paul Goldschmidt in the lineup. I don't love any of the other teams in the division, but I think this is the best team in the division with the second-best starting pitching. Kennedy/Cahill/Hudson match up well with opposing teams and if the Diamondbacks get anything from Stephen Drew it is a plus.
Colorado Rockies (89-73): I'm taking a leap with the Rockies' record because I don't love the Rockies starting pitching. I really like the outfield, even if Dexter Fowler doesn't become the player we all thought he may be. Still, Cuddyer was a good and versatile addition to the outfield. I think of this as a good hitting Rockies team with just enough pitching to take one of the Wild Card spots.
San Francisco Giants (84-78): Everyone loves the Giants pitching. I just can't pick a team that starts an outfield of Melky Cabrera, Nate Schierholtz and Angel Pagan to win the division. Even with Buster Posey back, I don't trust Aubrey Huff to hit the ball well enough for the Giants to make the playoffs. I think the front office is doing the pitching staff an injustice by not giving them an offense that will score enough runs. Otherwise, that's a great pitching staff.
Los Angeles Dodgers (80-82): I don't hate the Dodgers. Don't tell T.J. Simers this. Clayton Kershaw is one of the best pitchers in baseball and Matt Kemp is one of the best hitters in baseball. Unfortunately, there are seven other players in the lineup every fifth day when Kershaw pitches and I don't think the Dodgers are strong enough in the infield (batting-wise) to make the playoffs. The rotation is very "blah" after Billingsley. Harang and Lilly are good pitchers, but not too much more. I look for T.J. Simers to enjoy the Dodgers lack of success.
San Diego Padres (71-91): Seems like they are rebuilding again. It's hard to say that though when their lineup seems to consist of guys who are guys who just aren't hitting as well as hoped at this point in their career and aren't exactly young guys. Yonder Alonso excepted of course. The starting pitching staff is all on the wrong side of 25, which doesn't sound like a big deal except for the fact these are supposed to be the prime years of their career and they aren't exactly pitching like they are in their prime. This team simply isn't good enough.
NL Playoffs
Stupid one game Wild Card playoff: Colorado over Atlanta
NLDS: Philadelphia over Colorado, Arizona over St. Louis
NLCS: Arizona over Philadelphia
Now for the American League...
AL East
New York Yankees (97-65): This is the easiest and hardest division to pick. The Blue Jays and Orioles probably aren't finishing higher than 4th. So that's easy to know. It's hard to guess how the other three teams will end up. The last time the Yankees made an effort to upgrade their pitching staff they won the World Series. I'm not comfortable going that far, but even given A-Rod's regression and Granderson probably not playing as well as he did last year, the Yankees have plenty of offense. Tex struggled in 2011 and he won't do that again in 2012.
Boston Red Sox (91-71): I'm high on the Red Sox. Sure their starting pitching seems to be a question mark, but they have the best hitter in the division, Adrian Gonzalez and I think Cody Ross will enjoy hitting in Fenway. The Red Sox can't replace Papelbon, it is impossible to find someone who as big of a douchebag as Paps is, but even harder to find as good of a closer. Still, I like the Bailey/Melancon combo. I'm buying on the Red Sox, even if the starting pitching is a bit unsettled.
Tampa Bay Rays (86-76): I'm not as high on the Rays. It took a complete collapse by the Red Sox to get the Rays in the playoffs last year and I'm not sure they are much better than they were last year. I am interested to see what Matt Joyce can do with 550 at-bats and interested to see Desmond Jennings play 150+ games. I feel weird not picking this team to win the division because up and down the roster I really like the Rays. I just think they are taking a one year step back, even with that tough starting pitching.
Toronto Blue Jays (83-79): Would it be possible for me to move Toronto to the NL Central and have the Blue Jays win the NL Central? I'd like to do that. They are a good team, but they are a few steps behind the Rays/Yankees/Red Sox at this point still. They have a solid "B-" team in a division full of "A's" and "B+'s." I'd feel better if I knew what they'd get from Colby Rasmus, Adam Lind, and Brandon Morrow. If anyone can predict the future and tell me what those guys will provide, I can make my prediction more accurate. They are a good team in a very good division.
Baltimore Orioles (72-90): Oh, the Orioles. They traded their most consistent starter for Jason Hammel and have strikeout kings Mark Reynolds and Chris Davis at the corners of the infield. Adam Jones' development has seemingly stalled and Matt Wieters could be in the same boat in one year. If I'm going to be technical about it, they don't have very good pitching at all. They have a staff of #4 and #5 guys and the fact half of their hitters can't make contact with the ball or get on-base at an average rate doesn't help things. But hey, last year they ruined the Red Sox season. That's something to hold onto for the next decade.
AL Central
Detroit Tigers (96-66): I liked the Tigers before they signed Prince Fielder. Now I really like them. If Max Scherzer and Rick Porcello pitch well this year then they are the team to beat in the American League. I expect Doug Fister to regress from how he pitched in Detroit last year, but Porcello should improve. The Tigers successfully got Brandon Inge to possibly not have 250 at-bats this year and that's a huge win. I do question whether Peralta can reproduce how he hit last year and whether Andy Dirks can be an everyday outfielder. Still, I'm feeling good about this team...even knowing Jose Valverde will blow at least one save this year.
Cleveland Indians (85-77): Hop on the bandwagon everyone! I like the Indians this year. Actually, I don't like the other teams in the division more, but still...those Indians...looking good. The Indians quietly got much better this offseason, especially in the starting pitching category. Lowe and Slowey aren't great, but they will give the Indians inning. I'm concerned about Jimenez pitching well. He has struggled since coming to Cleveland. Casey Kotchman was a good signing and Shin Soo-Choo is going to have a bounceback year. I like Jason Kipnis and I like that I like the Indians this year.
Kansas City Royals (81-81): The Royals are getting better. I'm a little surprised they are the 900th team to give Jeff Francoeur a permanent job in the outfield, but I guess there are worse options in the free agent market. There are maybe no other options with as high sense of self-worth as Francoeur has. The starting rotation isn't imposing, but I think the bullpen is pretty good, even without Soria. This team will at least hit well enough to go .500 this year, which is an improvement.
Minnesota Twins (75-87): I've never understood how the Twins won games with starters who projected to be #3 starters at-best. I don't have to wonder about that this year because they aren't going to win too many games. It's never good news when your two best hitters are complete question marks (Morneau/Mauer). I don't know if the Twins are going to hit the ball and that pitching staff still contains really average pitchers. If Mauer and Morneau can't come back to their old selves then Josh Willingham and Danny Valencia can't carry the offense.
Chicago White Sox (68-94): I can't decide how bad this team will be. I also can't decide if Robin Ventura is a genius or moron for wanting to bat Pierzynski 2nd in the batting order. I don't expect Adam Dunn to struggle this upcoming season like he did last season and I keep expecting Paul Konerko to drop in production...but that doesn't seem to be happening. I think the pitching staff is below average and I'm not even sure they can get anything from Jake Peavy at this point. There are too many question marks on this team for me to think they will win 70 games.
AL West
Los Angeles Angels (98-64): I think what scares me the most about this Angels team is their best/second-best outfielder isn't even going to probably start the year in the lineup. That's Mike Trout. Anybody think the Angels want a time machine to take the Vernon Wells trade back and sign a two-year gap guy in left field like Johnny Damon? I bet they do. This is the perfect situation for C.J. Wilson. He isn't a #2-quality starter, but he doesn't have to be on this pitching staff, but he still gets paid like a #2 starter. What's great is this Angels team added the best available bat, Albert Pujols, but their pitching can win them games even if the Angels lineup isn't hitting. I think the Angels win the division. I'm just excited to see Mike Trout play in all honesty.
Texas Rangers (93-69): The Rangers have sort of been forgotten in all the talk about Pujols and the Angels. This is still a very good team. Neftali Feliz has the stuff to be a starter and was originally a starter in the minors, so I'm not overly concerned for him making the transition. The best part is the Rangers could always move Ogando back to the rotation and have an awe-inspiring bullpen if Feliz doesn't work out. I'm just surprised Michael Young didn't demand a trade when the Rangers signed Yu Darvish. Demanding a trade is his knee-jerk reaction to any move the Rangers make. This team will hit very well and I think the starting pitching is above average, but not great.
Seattle Mariners (77-85): I get the Montero-Pineida trade more than some experts do. The Mariners wanted a quality young hitter and they knew they would have to give up a quality player in order to get a quality young hitter. I'm not as concerned about the fact Montero doesn't play the field well. Would it have been a better trade if Montero played catcher? Wouldn't that ultimately lead to the whole "When will the Mariners move Montero from catcher to preserve his health" discussion? So he can't play the field well, his job will be to hit anyway. The Mariners still don't have very good hitting up and down the lineup, but I am a bit warmed up to their pitching staff. From what I've read about Hector Noesi and Blake Beavan (the Mariner's #4/#5 starters) they will succeed in Safeco Park. I think the Mariners may be improving.
Oakland A's (65-97): The A's, on the other hand, are not improving. They spent the late Fall and Winter ridding themselves of good pitching (Gio Gonzalez/Trevor Cahill). As much of a ceiling Cespedes is supposed to have, I don't see where the offense is coming from. The A's won't have enough starting pitching to come close to competing in this division and I think it will take another year or two before the A's rebuilding plan (again) starts to allow them to compete again.
AL Playoffs
Stupid One Game Wild Card Playoff: Boston over Texas
ALDS: Boston over Los Angeles, Detroit over New York
ALCS: Detroit over Boston
World Series: Detroit over Arizona
There we go. Feel free to call me an idiot.
Saturday, October 16, 2010
6 comments MLB 2010 Preview Review Part 2
This week I will continue my review of the MLB preview I did for the 2010 season and point out what I said that was right and what I said that was wrong about each team. I was pretty average for the first 15 teams. I got several teams nearly exactly right in predicting their records and then I missed big on others. I will start with Milwaukee for the second 15 teams.
Milwaukee Brewers
Final record: 77-85
My prediction: 84-78
What I got right:
I feel like they don't have a real #2 pitcher on the roster, assuming Gallardo is a #1 pitcher of course. It's not that the rotation is bad, but the starters for the #4/#5 spot are Suppan, Bush, and Parra. Suppan is regressing, Parra really struggled last year and Dave Bush isn't anything better than the #4 starter.
The pitching for the Brewers is what really let them down this year. They did not have very good pitching at all. There just isn't a pitcher that has any more of a ceiling than a #3 on a good playoff team.
What I got wrong:
Weeks is supposed to be back and healthy and the Brewers have two sluggers in Braun and Fielder with two excellent young players in Escobar and Gamel. I like this lineup.
Gamel and Escobar were disasters at the plate. They did not hit the ball very well at all.
If I were the Brewers I would give Mat Gamel plenty of at-bats and use Casey Magahee as a backup, but I know that's a tough call the Brewers may not be ready to make.
It is probably a move the Brewers aren't ready to make because it would have been a stupid move. Gamel was pretty useless last year and McGehee was one of the better hitters for the Brewers.
I expect Carlos Gomez to have a breakout year at some point (as does many other people probably) and this could be the year.
It was not the year for Carlos Gomez to have a breakout year. Not at all.
Minnesota Twins
Final record: 94-68
Predicted record: 84-78
There I do go underestimating the Twins, which is something most people tend to do.
What I got right:
I can't help but wonder if Mauer's power is here to stay. He doubled his previous career high last year. I think he can hit that many home runs again and maybe some of the doubles he hit previously went out last year, but I still wonder if he can keep it up.
Mauer had nine homeruns this past year. I think his power surge of 2009 was something we may not see from him on a regular basis.
If Liriano turns it around, if they get some more help from the starting pitching and if the bullpen holds up without Nathan I can see them winning the division. That's a lot of "ifs" though.
It looks like Liriano got healthy, Carl Pavano helped out in the rotation and Matt Capps helped the bullpen out a lot when he was traded from the Nationals.
What I got wrong:
This is a team that I think will compete for the AL Central title, but I see a rotation full of #3 guys and not guys who are good enough to win a playoff series or match up well with even some of the other teams in the AL Central.
Liriano and Pavano have pitched like #1 or #2-type starters this year. I figured they weren't good enough to win a short series, so I was still right about that.
I like the Jim Thome signing as well as having Delmon Young be the 4th outfielder. I don't like him as a starter, but when he is either platooning or is the 4th outfielder
Delmon Young had a pretty damn good year. He deserved to start.
New York Mets
Final record: 79-83
Predicted record: 83-79
Maybe I am dyslexic and don't know it yet, but I got their record completely backwards.
What I got right:
It balances out the incredible uselessness of Jeff Francoeur. Think I sound bitter, Mets fans? Just wait until you get to see him for an entire year. You'll want to murder him, he's very frustrating.
Needless to say, I will read the mind of every Met fan and say this is how they felt toward the end of last season. Francoeur sucks.
I am not as high on Pelfrey and Perez, but I can see John Maine having a good year.
Being right on one out of three isn't bad is it? Ok, maybe it is.
I don't think Perez will be a viable starter
I admit, it wasn't the boldest of predictions...but I was right about it.
What I got wrong:
First things first. This team should not have as many injuries as they did last year.
Oh no, the Mets still had injuries. Maybe not as many, but they still had injuries.
I don't think Luis Castillo is quite as useless as people may want to believe he is
Oh no. He is still pretty useless. He had an OPS of .604 and only stole 8 bases.
New York Yankees
Final record: 95-67
Predicted record: 99-63
What I got right:
I have concerns about Burnett holding up or even being effective,
He didn't exactly have a banner year. It was just his year to be ineffective and he was the highly paid fourth best starter for the Yankees.
I think they will win the East, but I also believe it will be a lot closer than last year.
Considering I got their record fairly close, I was fairly off on my predictions about them. The AL East was closer than last year. In fact, the Yankees didn't win the AL East. Not that it mattered in the playoffs of course.
What I got wrong:
Jeter shows no signs of dropping off and I don't think his contract situation is going to bother him this year
Jeter did drop off a bit. I am not sure if it was age or his contract situation (which I would doubt) that did it.
The Yankees upgraded in my mind when they got Javy Vazquez. He is going to the American League where he hasn't had as much success in the past, but he isn't going to be asked to be the ace of this staff, just the #3/#4 starter, which I believe he is more than capable of filling.
It turns out he is not capable of filling this role. He is capable of giving up homeruns and hitting batters with pitches though. He needs to be traded back to the National League very, very soon.
I don't think that either Randy Winn or Brett Gardner are going to be the answer in left field and I see the Yankees making a trade during the season to shore up that spot in their lineup.
It turns out Brett Gardner had a pretty damn good year, though Randy Winn was for the most part completely useless.
Oakland A's
Final record: 81-81
Predicted record: 68-94
I really, really missed on this one.
What I got right (if anything):
The lineup for the A's is not good.
23rd in runs scored, 28th in homeruns, and 21st in OPS. This happened to exceed my expectations for this team offensively, so as bad as they were, I expected them to be worse.
The pitching is good. I think Ben Sheets was a good signing, though I am a little surprised they spent as much money on him as they did. I think Braden and Cahill are going to continue to progress, which would make the starting pitching the strength of this team.
The A's had the best starter ERA in the majors and were #1 in quality starts. I didn't expect them to be that good in the rotation.
What I got wrong:
Chris Carter will probably make an impact of some type this upcoming year and he came over in the Dan Haren trade.
Carter made zero impact.
The A's picked up Ben Sheets in the offseason. It's not a bad signing because he can be a quality pitcher again, I just don't understand what motivated them to start spending money on starting pitching
They may not do it again because Sheets showed that he is not a quality pitcher anymore, especially for how much the A's paid for him.
Philadelphia Phillies
Final record: 97-65
Predicted record: 91-71
What I got right:
I don't how I feel about Jimmy Rollins. I think he is a great shortstop, but I do have a tendency to believe may be slightly overrated.
What's weird is the Phillies are a much better team with him in the lineup, but he really isn't that great of a shortstop. He's good, but not very that good compared to how much they rely on him. That being said, I hate it when I see Jimmy Rollins come to bat against the Braves.
As I have written here several times, I take Roy Halladay over Cliff Lee.
I would take Halladay over Lee 100 times out of 100 times and even one more time just for shits and giggles.
This was the best team in the National League two years ago, last year, and will be again this year...I just don't know, assuming Halladay stays healthy and if Hamels bounces back and focuses less on everything else going on in his life and more on baseball, if another team can beat them in a short series or for the NL East.
The Phillies were the best team in the NL and no team in the NL can beat them in a short series.
This is a lineup that can win a World Series this year.
And I think they will.
What I got wrong:
Overall, this is a really solid bullpen and if Lidge is able to not go mentally crazy and blow saves, this should be one of the best bullpens in the National League.
Lidge had a pretty good year and the bullpen wasn't one of the best bullpens in the National League. It was the 10th best bullpen in the National League in ERA and 13th in batting average against.
Joe Blanton is a good 3rd starter.
No he's not. Roy Oswalt is though.
Pittsburgh Pirates
Final record: 57-105
Predicted record: 60-102
What I got right:
Andy LaRoche is going to lose his job very soon to Pedro Alvarez,
He did.
The rest of the team. Few things in sports irritate me more than having a team that stinks because can't identify prospects, so they are perpetually rebuilding. The Pirates have been rebuilding for decades now and owe the fans of the team untold millions of dollars for what they have witnessed on the field that is supposed to be a team.
We found out later in the year the Pirates had been making a tidy profit off putting a shitty product on the field. They are lucky to draw a crowd of 5,000 people to a game. The Pirates organization still owes the fans millions of dollars.
What I got wrong:
I like they have good backups in Moss, Young, and Church.
They aren't good backups.
The Pirates signed a new closer, Octavio Dotel, who is going to close out the 5 games this year they are ahead in the 9th inning (I am just kidding, there will be more games than that, they are in the Astros' division). This is like putting $2,500 tires on a 1994 Honda Accord.
Dotel actually got 21 saves though his ERA was above 4.00 and he didn't pitch that well. Still, it was a waste of money. It was more like putting $2500 tires on a car with 150,000 miles.
There is actual talent here. I promise. Paul Maholm, Zach Duke, and Ross Ohlendorf are not terrible pitchers, even though they have pitched terribly.
There's not talent there. It doesn't make sense to say those three aren't terrible pitchers when they have pitched terribly. Ohlendorf kept his ERA under 5.00, which is something Duke and Maholm can't brag about. They aren't good starters which is (part of the reason) why this team sucks.
The outfield is a guy no one should really want (Milledge), an actual good baseball player (McCutchen), and a guy who had a year last year I don't know if he can repeat (Garrett Jones).
Jones did repeat his good year from 2009. Maybe he is the 3rd actual MLB player on this team that consists of AAAA or AAA players.
San Diego Padres
Final record: 90-72
Predicted record: 68-94
22 games off. I would have been better off drawing a number out of a hat to make this prediction.
What I got right:
If you put a gun to my head and asked me the strongest part of this team, I would actually say the bullpen. Many of these guys had good years last year and could very well have good years for the upcoming year. If the Padres can get a lead, then this bullpen is going to keep that lead. I think many other teams would like to have a bullpen that is as good as the Padres bullpen can be.
The bullpen was #1 in the majors in reliever ERA.
This team isn't going to hit the ball well, but I feel like the lineup is taking a step in the right direction and as long as they have Gonzalez in the lineup, they will have a good lineup in my mind for at least one spot.
The Padres did not hit the ball very well this year at all.
What I got wrong (if we have enough time for all of this):
Throw in the fact the NL West seems like it is going to be fairly strong this year and the Padres are going to have to wait another year at best to compete.
Wrong. They were second in the NL West and almost made the playoffs.
I see Richard having a really good year this year and Latos and Poreda should be in the Padre rotation for years to come.
I see the future is pretty bright for this rotation, but they are one year away from even seeing this potential.
Wrong. Latos had a good year and the rotation realized their potential (or are getting there) this year.
Other than that, there isn't much out there. I am not going to lie, and maybe it is my West Coast bias, but the Padres don't look good right now,
They didn't look good, but they played well pretty much all year...except for that 10 game "bad luck" (in the words of Joe Morgan) losing streak.
San Francisco Giants
Final record: 92-70
Predicted record: 86-76
What I got right:
Bengie Molina has power, but he is just holding down the catcher position until Buster Posey takes over for him, which hopefully will be sooner for the Giants rather than later.
It was sooner.
The bullpen for the Giants is also fairly strong and it strikes me as interesting the Giants can't seem to cultivate prospects from the farm system that contribute who are everyday players, but they do a good job with cultivating pitching from their system.
The Giants were 2nd in MLB in reliever ERA.
This team could easily contend in the NL West if they had any type of hitting, that's how strong the pen and the front part of the rotation is. If only this team could develop hitters better I think they could make it a race for the NL West title.
The Giants hit well enough and it got them the NL West title and the chance to lose to the Phillies in the NLCS.
What I got wrong:
If they only had a lineup. While this team can pitch pretty well with any other team in the NL West, they can't hit with anyone in the NL West, so they seem to stand no chance of winning the division.
Needless to say, this was completely wrong. The Giants were essentially middle-of-the-pack in hitting, which was good enough to win the division and make the NLCS.
I also don't really like the fact this team just is wasting Lincecum and Cain's early years in the majors. It kind of pisses me off.
I was very off on the Giants hitting ability. I did not count on Huff having a good year and Pat Burrell hitting like the old Pat Burrell once he got to San Francisco.
I can't say enough positive things about Pablo Sandoval, he really is the bright spot in this lineup...
It's weird because now I can't saying anything positive about Pablo Sandoval. He was benched for Mike Fontenot in the NLDS. I should have guessed a free swinger would eventually get figured out by pitchers, but I apparently really liked Sandoval when I wrote this.
Seattle Mariners
Final record: 61-101
Predicted record: 81-81
I wish I had the balls to predict their record to be even worse than I did. I hated this team at the beginning of the year because they couldn't hit the ball.
What I got right:
Seattle is this year's popular pick to win the AL West. I would normally love to jump on that bandwagon, but this lineup has a lot of convincing of me to do before I can get too excited about their prospects to beat the Angels. Where the hell is the offense coming from? Is Milton Bradley the cleanup hitter for this team? He can be a great hitter but he also doesn't always play in a full season of games, plus his performance was down last year and he is going to be 32 years old in one month. If he is your cleanup hitter, you don't have a great team. Other than that, this team is built for defense, which I respect, but unfortunately preventing runs from scoring doesn't actually score a team runs.
The Mariners were last in runs scored, home runs, batting average, on-base percentage, and slugging percentage. It wasn't terribly close either. They were terrible offensively. By saying they were terrible, I am insulting every other team I have called terrible previously.
Another quibble I have is the #3-#5 starters in the rotation. Are those guys going to be able to perform well for the Mariners this year? I know what Lee/Hernandez can provide, but what can the other guys in the rotation provide?
The answer was that outside of Jason Vargas, the other guys in the rotation provided nothing at all.
What I got wrong:
I don't know if the defense is going to be enough to override the fact this team is fairly weak at the plate. If they got lucky then they may be able to beat the Angels out for the division title, but I can't see that happening this year.
I wasn't harsh enough. They were a terrible offensive team. I saw it and didn't call them on it harshly enough.
This is a good team and I think maybe in a different year in the AL West they could compete.
No, they couldn't. They were terrible.
It is not a bad bullpen and I think it will be around the middle of the rankings of bullpens in the American League.
They weren't. The Mariners were 11th in bullpen ERA.
St. Louis Cardinals
Final record: 86-76
Predicted record: 96-66
What I got right:
I look for Colby Rasmus to have a great year and take a leap up from what he was hitting last year. He's had a full year in the majors now and he should be getting ready to make a leap to being a great hitter.
Rasmus improved from his first year in the majors. I can't wait to see how good he can be next year.
Jaime Garcia is coming off Tommy John surgery and he is a highly touted rookie LH pitcher. He has the 5th starter spot locked down and it wouldn't surprise me if he had a good year and eventually was the 4th best starter on this team.
Do I get credit for saying this if he was the 3rd best starter on the team? I think I should get credit.
What I got wrong:
I don't think that will happen, but Cardinals fans should start saving up for postseason tickets now regardless.
Then go spend that money they saved up on something else because the Cardinals didn't make the postseason.
I think this will be one of the stronger lineups in the National League.
They were 6th in the National League in runs. That's not one of the stronger lineups really.
Tampa Bay Rays
Final record: 96-66
Predicted record: 88-74
What I got right:
This is a pretty good Tampa Bay lineup. It is not AL East-good, but in the realm of baseball overall, it is a good lineup.
The Rays had the 3rd most runs scored in the majors...behind the Yankees and Red Sox. What bad luck for them.
This bullpen has been improved with the addition of Soriano to it. He is a legitimate, if not occasionally injured, closer and will strengthen this pen.
Soriano was lights-out this year. Just in time for a new contract. How convenient.
What I got wrong:
I see improvement in this team this year, especially among the young players, but it won't be enough to win the division.
The Rays won the AL East.
I love the pitching staff. It may not have an elite #1 guy like other teams in this division have, but it is solid in spots #1-#5
David Price turned into that elite #1 guy this year. They now have a #1 pitcher.
Carlos Pena needs to bring his batting average up some,
Some? Pena hit .196 this year and struck out 158 times. That's Rob Deer-like production right there.
Texas Rangers
Final record: 90-72
Predicted record: 83-79
What I got right:
I may be overrating the pitching staff of the Rangers a bit, but I do like it.
Embarrassingly, this is probably the closest I came to making a correct statement about the Rangers. I did say I liked their lineup, so I guess that counts as well. For only missing their record by 7 games I sure said a lot of wrong stuff about their upcoming season.
Also, Scott Feldman will probably not have as good of a year this upcoming year as he did last. His peripheral numbers aren't that impressive so I think he is due for a bit of a fall.
He did pitch poorly this year. That's two correct statements about the Rangers. Admittedly, I had to stretch for the second one.
What I got wrong:
Even if they get great performances from some guys in the rotation, and even with the strong bullpen, I am not sure this Rangers team is strong enough to beat the Angels.
They won the division fairly easily.
I have seen a couple previews with C.J. Wilson at the 4th starter spot, but that seems like nonsense to me because he is such a valuable bullpen guy, I don't know why they would go away from him staying in the pen.
They would do that because he put up a 15-8 record in 204 innings this year with a 3.35 ERA and a 1.25 WHIP as a starter. That's why.
I don't know how I feel about him starting this year, because I think they should put Neftali Feliz in the rotation and not stick him in the pen...but it's not up to me.
Thankfully it is not up to me. Otherwise the Rangers would have made a mistake. I was counting on the Rangers not having good starting pitching, but Feliz was lights-out in the bullpen. It's the right place for him for the time being.
Elvis Andrus is a year away from being an elite shortstop,
Ok, maybe he is two years away from being an elite shortstop. I tend to forget he is 12 years old or something like that.
Toronto Blue Jays
Final record: 85-77
Predicted record: 67-95
Another huuuuuuuuuge swing and a miss on a team's record. I am the opposite of on fire right now.
What I got right:
Let's see. I like the Blue Jays offense somewhat. If Aaron Hill and Adam Lind hit as well as they did last year this team may not end up in 5th place in the AL East. Of course if Lind and Hill both hit as well as they did last year...well that isn't happening...but if it did the Jays may not be in 5th place.
Both Hill and Lind didn't hit as well as they did in 2009. They had power and that is about it.
If there was ever a rotation that looks bare after losing a great pitcher, it is the Blue Jays rotation. There isn't that much here.
The starting pitching was 21st in starter ERA. This was a major source of the Blue Jays problems in 2010.
What I was wrong about:
The Blue Jays don't have enough pitching and the hitters they do have are not good enough to win 10-8 baseball games.
The Blue Jays were 9th in the majors in runs scored. They were good enough to win 10-8 games.
In the infield, John Buck is an average catcher, Alex Gonzalez starts for defensive purposes and Lyle Overbay and Edwin Encarnacion are the only two possible sources of hitting prowess available.
Other than Jose Bautista and Vernon Wells too. I really underestimated the Blue Jays offensive abilities, though I imagine other people did as well.
Vernon Wells continues to be a disappointment for how much money he makes and I know some expect him to rebound this year, but I just don't see it personally.
I did see Wells rebound after the year when I looked at his end-of-the-year statistics. I'd like to see him get on-base more often and he still isn't worth the money he is getting paid, but he did have a semi-bounce back year.
Washington Nationals
Final record: 69-93
Predicted record: 64-98
I was one game off. It looks like I got close a few times, but didn't get a team's season record correct for any of the 30 teams.
What I got right:
I am not even sure what Ivan Rodriguez provides anymore to the catcher position because I think even his defense has slipped, Adam Kennedy should be a backup but he isn't (ok, maybe he has one good year left),
Rodriguez "handled the pitchers" well this year, but he's not a long or short term fix and Adam Kennedy was just decent at second base. I can't hate the signing, because there was no one else the Nationals would sign to play the position.
The best pitcher in this rotation is in the minor leagues right now. What is left is Jason Marquis, the "ace" of the staff, who I personally can't stand as a pitcher anywhere above #3 in the rotation,
It didn't take long for the Nationals to realize, indeed, Jason Marquis is not a good starting pitcher.
Why the Nationals went out and signed the corpse of Ivan Rodriguez I don't understand. Maybe they are hoping he can teach the Nationals hitters the best way to use PEDs and not get caught (I kid).
I'm not sure I was really kidding.
What I got wrong:
I don't really like that they are thinking of having Christian Guzman start over Ian Desmond. It is decisions like that which make question whether this team is going to succeed.
I don't know if I got this wrong exactly, but Guzman had an overall season that was slightly better or on-par with Desmond's season. I probably still would have played Desmond as much as they did.
Let's just say Matt Capps was a terrible signing. He's not a good closer.
I was completely wrong about this. Capps got traded to the Twins, in a deal that really favored the Nationals (they got back Wilson Ramos), and he was a good closer this year. Of all the signings this offseason for the Nationals, Capps was probably one of the best ones.
Nyjer Morgan was an actual steal by the Nats from the Pirates
I should have used the term "steal" a little bit less loosely. Morgan is a speed guy who got caught stealing 33% of the time and has no power.
So that's it. That's how I did in the my MLB Preview this year. I hope you enjoyed following up on my idiocy. I don't remember who I picked for the World Series. I wish I did.
Milwaukee Brewers
Final record: 77-85
My prediction: 84-78
What I got right:
I feel like they don't have a real #2 pitcher on the roster, assuming Gallardo is a #1 pitcher of course. It's not that the rotation is bad, but the starters for the #4/#5 spot are Suppan, Bush, and Parra. Suppan is regressing, Parra really struggled last year and Dave Bush isn't anything better than the #4 starter.
The pitching for the Brewers is what really let them down this year. They did not have very good pitching at all. There just isn't a pitcher that has any more of a ceiling than a #3 on a good playoff team.
What I got wrong:
Weeks is supposed to be back and healthy and the Brewers have two sluggers in Braun and Fielder with two excellent young players in Escobar and Gamel. I like this lineup.
Gamel and Escobar were disasters at the plate. They did not hit the ball very well at all.
If I were the Brewers I would give Mat Gamel plenty of at-bats and use Casey Magahee as a backup, but I know that's a tough call the Brewers may not be ready to make.
It is probably a move the Brewers aren't ready to make because it would have been a stupid move. Gamel was pretty useless last year and McGehee was one of the better hitters for the Brewers.
I expect Carlos Gomez to have a breakout year at some point (as does many other people probably) and this could be the year.
It was not the year for Carlos Gomez to have a breakout year. Not at all.
Minnesota Twins
Final record: 94-68
Predicted record: 84-78
There I do go underestimating the Twins, which is something most people tend to do.
What I got right:
I can't help but wonder if Mauer's power is here to stay. He doubled his previous career high last year. I think he can hit that many home runs again and maybe some of the doubles he hit previously went out last year, but I still wonder if he can keep it up.
Mauer had nine homeruns this past year. I think his power surge of 2009 was something we may not see from him on a regular basis.
If Liriano turns it around, if they get some more help from the starting pitching and if the bullpen holds up without Nathan I can see them winning the division. That's a lot of "ifs" though.
It looks like Liriano got healthy, Carl Pavano helped out in the rotation and Matt Capps helped the bullpen out a lot when he was traded from the Nationals.
What I got wrong:
This is a team that I think will compete for the AL Central title, but I see a rotation full of #3 guys and not guys who are good enough to win a playoff series or match up well with even some of the other teams in the AL Central.
Liriano and Pavano have pitched like #1 or #2-type starters this year. I figured they weren't good enough to win a short series, so I was still right about that.
I like the Jim Thome signing as well as having Delmon Young be the 4th outfielder. I don't like him as a starter, but when he is either platooning or is the 4th outfielder
Delmon Young had a pretty damn good year. He deserved to start.
New York Mets
Final record: 79-83
Predicted record: 83-79
Maybe I am dyslexic and don't know it yet, but I got their record completely backwards.
What I got right:
It balances out the incredible uselessness of Jeff Francoeur. Think I sound bitter, Mets fans? Just wait until you get to see him for an entire year. You'll want to murder him, he's very frustrating.
Needless to say, I will read the mind of every Met fan and say this is how they felt toward the end of last season. Francoeur sucks.
I am not as high on Pelfrey and Perez, but I can see John Maine having a good year.
Being right on one out of three isn't bad is it? Ok, maybe it is.
I don't think Perez will be a viable starter
I admit, it wasn't the boldest of predictions...but I was right about it.
What I got wrong:
First things first. This team should not have as many injuries as they did last year.
Oh no, the Mets still had injuries. Maybe not as many, but they still had injuries.
I don't think Luis Castillo is quite as useless as people may want to believe he is
Oh no. He is still pretty useless. He had an OPS of .604 and only stole 8 bases.
New York Yankees
Final record: 95-67
Predicted record: 99-63
What I got right:
I have concerns about Burnett holding up or even being effective,
He didn't exactly have a banner year. It was just his year to be ineffective and he was the highly paid fourth best starter for the Yankees.
I think they will win the East, but I also believe it will be a lot closer than last year.
Considering I got their record fairly close, I was fairly off on my predictions about them. The AL East was closer than last year. In fact, the Yankees didn't win the AL East. Not that it mattered in the playoffs of course.
What I got wrong:
Jeter shows no signs of dropping off and I don't think his contract situation is going to bother him this year
Jeter did drop off a bit. I am not sure if it was age or his contract situation (which I would doubt) that did it.
The Yankees upgraded in my mind when they got Javy Vazquez. He is going to the American League where he hasn't had as much success in the past, but he isn't going to be asked to be the ace of this staff, just the #3/#4 starter, which I believe he is more than capable of filling.
It turns out he is not capable of filling this role. He is capable of giving up homeruns and hitting batters with pitches though. He needs to be traded back to the National League very, very soon.
I don't think that either Randy Winn or Brett Gardner are going to be the answer in left field and I see the Yankees making a trade during the season to shore up that spot in their lineup.
It turns out Brett Gardner had a pretty damn good year, though Randy Winn was for the most part completely useless.
Oakland A's
Final record: 81-81
Predicted record: 68-94
I really, really missed on this one.
What I got right (if anything):
The lineup for the A's is not good.
23rd in runs scored, 28th in homeruns, and 21st in OPS. This happened to exceed my expectations for this team offensively, so as bad as they were, I expected them to be worse.
The pitching is good. I think Ben Sheets was a good signing, though I am a little surprised they spent as much money on him as they did. I think Braden and Cahill are going to continue to progress, which would make the starting pitching the strength of this team.
The A's had the best starter ERA in the majors and were #1 in quality starts. I didn't expect them to be that good in the rotation.
What I got wrong:
Chris Carter will probably make an impact of some type this upcoming year and he came over in the Dan Haren trade.
Carter made zero impact.
The A's picked up Ben Sheets in the offseason. It's not a bad signing because he can be a quality pitcher again, I just don't understand what motivated them to start spending money on starting pitching
They may not do it again because Sheets showed that he is not a quality pitcher anymore, especially for how much the A's paid for him.
Philadelphia Phillies
Final record: 97-65
Predicted record: 91-71
What I got right:
I don't how I feel about Jimmy Rollins. I think he is a great shortstop, but I do have a tendency to believe may be slightly overrated.
What's weird is the Phillies are a much better team with him in the lineup, but he really isn't that great of a shortstop. He's good, but not very that good compared to how much they rely on him. That being said, I hate it when I see Jimmy Rollins come to bat against the Braves.
As I have written here several times, I take Roy Halladay over Cliff Lee.
I would take Halladay over Lee 100 times out of 100 times and even one more time just for shits and giggles.
This was the best team in the National League two years ago, last year, and will be again this year...I just don't know, assuming Halladay stays healthy and if Hamels bounces back and focuses less on everything else going on in his life and more on baseball, if another team can beat them in a short series or for the NL East.
The Phillies were the best team in the NL and no team in the NL can beat them in a short series.
This is a lineup that can win a World Series this year.
And I think they will.
What I got wrong:
Overall, this is a really solid bullpen and if Lidge is able to not go mentally crazy and blow saves, this should be one of the best bullpens in the National League.
Lidge had a pretty good year and the bullpen wasn't one of the best bullpens in the National League. It was the 10th best bullpen in the National League in ERA and 13th in batting average against.
Joe Blanton is a good 3rd starter.
No he's not. Roy Oswalt is though.
Pittsburgh Pirates
Final record: 57-105
Predicted record: 60-102
What I got right:
Andy LaRoche is going to lose his job very soon to Pedro Alvarez,
He did.
The rest of the team. Few things in sports irritate me more than having a team that stinks because can't identify prospects, so they are perpetually rebuilding. The Pirates have been rebuilding for decades now and owe the fans of the team untold millions of dollars for what they have witnessed on the field that is supposed to be a team.
We found out later in the year the Pirates had been making a tidy profit off putting a shitty product on the field. They are lucky to draw a crowd of 5,000 people to a game. The Pirates organization still owes the fans millions of dollars.
What I got wrong:
I like they have good backups in Moss, Young, and Church.
They aren't good backups.
The Pirates signed a new closer, Octavio Dotel, who is going to close out the 5 games this year they are ahead in the 9th inning (I am just kidding, there will be more games than that, they are in the Astros' division). This is like putting $2,500 tires on a 1994 Honda Accord.
Dotel actually got 21 saves though his ERA was above 4.00 and he didn't pitch that well. Still, it was a waste of money. It was more like putting $2500 tires on a car with 150,000 miles.
There is actual talent here. I promise. Paul Maholm, Zach Duke, and Ross Ohlendorf are not terrible pitchers, even though they have pitched terribly.
There's not talent there. It doesn't make sense to say those three aren't terrible pitchers when they have pitched terribly. Ohlendorf kept his ERA under 5.00, which is something Duke and Maholm can't brag about. They aren't good starters which is (part of the reason) why this team sucks.
The outfield is a guy no one should really want (Milledge), an actual good baseball player (McCutchen), and a guy who had a year last year I don't know if he can repeat (Garrett Jones).
Jones did repeat his good year from 2009. Maybe he is the 3rd actual MLB player on this team that consists of AAAA or AAA players.
San Diego Padres
Final record: 90-72
Predicted record: 68-94
22 games off. I would have been better off drawing a number out of a hat to make this prediction.
What I got right:
If you put a gun to my head and asked me the strongest part of this team, I would actually say the bullpen. Many of these guys had good years last year and could very well have good years for the upcoming year. If the Padres can get a lead, then this bullpen is going to keep that lead. I think many other teams would like to have a bullpen that is as good as the Padres bullpen can be.
The bullpen was #1 in the majors in reliever ERA.
This team isn't going to hit the ball well, but I feel like the lineup is taking a step in the right direction and as long as they have Gonzalez in the lineup, they will have a good lineup in my mind for at least one spot.
The Padres did not hit the ball very well this year at all.
What I got wrong (if we have enough time for all of this):
Throw in the fact the NL West seems like it is going to be fairly strong this year and the Padres are going to have to wait another year at best to compete.
Wrong. They were second in the NL West and almost made the playoffs.
I see Richard having a really good year this year and Latos and Poreda should be in the Padre rotation for years to come.
I see the future is pretty bright for this rotation, but they are one year away from even seeing this potential.
Wrong. Latos had a good year and the rotation realized their potential (or are getting there) this year.
Other than that, there isn't much out there. I am not going to lie, and maybe it is my West Coast bias, but the Padres don't look good right now,
They didn't look good, but they played well pretty much all year...except for that 10 game "bad luck" (in the words of Joe Morgan) losing streak.
San Francisco Giants
Final record: 92-70
Predicted record: 86-76
What I got right:
Bengie Molina has power, but he is just holding down the catcher position until Buster Posey takes over for him, which hopefully will be sooner for the Giants rather than later.
It was sooner.
The bullpen for the Giants is also fairly strong and it strikes me as interesting the Giants can't seem to cultivate prospects from the farm system that contribute who are everyday players, but they do a good job with cultivating pitching from their system.
The Giants were 2nd in MLB in reliever ERA.
This team could easily contend in the NL West if they had any type of hitting, that's how strong the pen and the front part of the rotation is. If only this team could develop hitters better I think they could make it a race for the NL West title.
The Giants hit well enough and it got them the NL West title and the chance to lose to the Phillies in the NLCS.
What I got wrong:
If they only had a lineup. While this team can pitch pretty well with any other team in the NL West, they can't hit with anyone in the NL West, so they seem to stand no chance of winning the division.
Needless to say, this was completely wrong. The Giants were essentially middle-of-the-pack in hitting, which was good enough to win the division and make the NLCS.
I also don't really like the fact this team just is wasting Lincecum and Cain's early years in the majors. It kind of pisses me off.
I was very off on the Giants hitting ability. I did not count on Huff having a good year and Pat Burrell hitting like the old Pat Burrell once he got to San Francisco.
I can't say enough positive things about Pablo Sandoval, he really is the bright spot in this lineup...
It's weird because now I can't saying anything positive about Pablo Sandoval. He was benched for Mike Fontenot in the NLDS. I should have guessed a free swinger would eventually get figured out by pitchers, but I apparently really liked Sandoval when I wrote this.
Seattle Mariners
Final record: 61-101
Predicted record: 81-81
I wish I had the balls to predict their record to be even worse than I did. I hated this team at the beginning of the year because they couldn't hit the ball.
What I got right:
Seattle is this year's popular pick to win the AL West. I would normally love to jump on that bandwagon, but this lineup has a lot of convincing of me to do before I can get too excited about their prospects to beat the Angels. Where the hell is the offense coming from? Is Milton Bradley the cleanup hitter for this team? He can be a great hitter but he also doesn't always play in a full season of games, plus his performance was down last year and he is going to be 32 years old in one month. If he is your cleanup hitter, you don't have a great team. Other than that, this team is built for defense, which I respect, but unfortunately preventing runs from scoring doesn't actually score a team runs.
The Mariners were last in runs scored, home runs, batting average, on-base percentage, and slugging percentage. It wasn't terribly close either. They were terrible offensively. By saying they were terrible, I am insulting every other team I have called terrible previously.
Another quibble I have is the #3-#5 starters in the rotation. Are those guys going to be able to perform well for the Mariners this year? I know what Lee/Hernandez can provide, but what can the other guys in the rotation provide?
The answer was that outside of Jason Vargas, the other guys in the rotation provided nothing at all.
What I got wrong:
I don't know if the defense is going to be enough to override the fact this team is fairly weak at the plate. If they got lucky then they may be able to beat the Angels out for the division title, but I can't see that happening this year.
I wasn't harsh enough. They were a terrible offensive team. I saw it and didn't call them on it harshly enough.
This is a good team and I think maybe in a different year in the AL West they could compete.
No, they couldn't. They were terrible.
It is not a bad bullpen and I think it will be around the middle of the rankings of bullpens in the American League.
They weren't. The Mariners were 11th in bullpen ERA.
St. Louis Cardinals
Final record: 86-76
Predicted record: 96-66
What I got right:
I look for Colby Rasmus to have a great year and take a leap up from what he was hitting last year. He's had a full year in the majors now and he should be getting ready to make a leap to being a great hitter.
Rasmus improved from his first year in the majors. I can't wait to see how good he can be next year.
Jaime Garcia is coming off Tommy John surgery and he is a highly touted rookie LH pitcher. He has the 5th starter spot locked down and it wouldn't surprise me if he had a good year and eventually was the 4th best starter on this team.
Do I get credit for saying this if he was the 3rd best starter on the team? I think I should get credit.
What I got wrong:
I don't think that will happen, but Cardinals fans should start saving up for postseason tickets now regardless.
Then go spend that money they saved up on something else because the Cardinals didn't make the postseason.
I think this will be one of the stronger lineups in the National League.
They were 6th in the National League in runs. That's not one of the stronger lineups really.
Tampa Bay Rays
Final record: 96-66
Predicted record: 88-74
What I got right:
This is a pretty good Tampa Bay lineup. It is not AL East-good, but in the realm of baseball overall, it is a good lineup.
The Rays had the 3rd most runs scored in the majors...behind the Yankees and Red Sox. What bad luck for them.
This bullpen has been improved with the addition of Soriano to it. He is a legitimate, if not occasionally injured, closer and will strengthen this pen.
Soriano was lights-out this year. Just in time for a new contract. How convenient.
What I got wrong:
I see improvement in this team this year, especially among the young players, but it won't be enough to win the division.
The Rays won the AL East.
I love the pitching staff. It may not have an elite #1 guy like other teams in this division have, but it is solid in spots #1-#5
David Price turned into that elite #1 guy this year. They now have a #1 pitcher.
Carlos Pena needs to bring his batting average up some,
Some? Pena hit .196 this year and struck out 158 times. That's Rob Deer-like production right there.
Texas Rangers
Final record: 90-72
Predicted record: 83-79
What I got right:
I may be overrating the pitching staff of the Rangers a bit, but I do like it.
Embarrassingly, this is probably the closest I came to making a correct statement about the Rangers. I did say I liked their lineup, so I guess that counts as well. For only missing their record by 7 games I sure said a lot of wrong stuff about their upcoming season.
Also, Scott Feldman will probably not have as good of a year this upcoming year as he did last. His peripheral numbers aren't that impressive so I think he is due for a bit of a fall.
He did pitch poorly this year. That's two correct statements about the Rangers. Admittedly, I had to stretch for the second one.
What I got wrong:
Even if they get great performances from some guys in the rotation, and even with the strong bullpen, I am not sure this Rangers team is strong enough to beat the Angels.
They won the division fairly easily.
I have seen a couple previews with C.J. Wilson at the 4th starter spot, but that seems like nonsense to me because he is such a valuable bullpen guy, I don't know why they would go away from him staying in the pen.
They would do that because he put up a 15-8 record in 204 innings this year with a 3.35 ERA and a 1.25 WHIP as a starter. That's why.
I don't know how I feel about him starting this year, because I think they should put Neftali Feliz in the rotation and not stick him in the pen...but it's not up to me.
Thankfully it is not up to me. Otherwise the Rangers would have made a mistake. I was counting on the Rangers not having good starting pitching, but Feliz was lights-out in the bullpen. It's the right place for him for the time being.
Elvis Andrus is a year away from being an elite shortstop,
Ok, maybe he is two years away from being an elite shortstop. I tend to forget he is 12 years old or something like that.
Toronto Blue Jays
Final record: 85-77
Predicted record: 67-95
Another huuuuuuuuuge swing and a miss on a team's record. I am the opposite of on fire right now.
What I got right:
Let's see. I like the Blue Jays offense somewhat. If Aaron Hill and Adam Lind hit as well as they did last year this team may not end up in 5th place in the AL East. Of course if Lind and Hill both hit as well as they did last year...well that isn't happening...but if it did the Jays may not be in 5th place.
Both Hill and Lind didn't hit as well as they did in 2009. They had power and that is about it.
If there was ever a rotation that looks bare after losing a great pitcher, it is the Blue Jays rotation. There isn't that much here.
The starting pitching was 21st in starter ERA. This was a major source of the Blue Jays problems in 2010.
What I was wrong about:
The Blue Jays don't have enough pitching and the hitters they do have are not good enough to win 10-8 baseball games.
The Blue Jays were 9th in the majors in runs scored. They were good enough to win 10-8 games.
In the infield, John Buck is an average catcher, Alex Gonzalez starts for defensive purposes and Lyle Overbay and Edwin Encarnacion are the only two possible sources of hitting prowess available.
Other than Jose Bautista and Vernon Wells too. I really underestimated the Blue Jays offensive abilities, though I imagine other people did as well.
Vernon Wells continues to be a disappointment for how much money he makes and I know some expect him to rebound this year, but I just don't see it personally.
I did see Wells rebound after the year when I looked at his end-of-the-year statistics. I'd like to see him get on-base more often and he still isn't worth the money he is getting paid, but he did have a semi-bounce back year.
Washington Nationals
Final record: 69-93
Predicted record: 64-98
I was one game off. It looks like I got close a few times, but didn't get a team's season record correct for any of the 30 teams.
What I got right:
I am not even sure what Ivan Rodriguez provides anymore to the catcher position because I think even his defense has slipped, Adam Kennedy should be a backup but he isn't (ok, maybe he has one good year left),
Rodriguez "handled the pitchers" well this year, but he's not a long or short term fix and Adam Kennedy was just decent at second base. I can't hate the signing, because there was no one else the Nationals would sign to play the position.
The best pitcher in this rotation is in the minor leagues right now. What is left is Jason Marquis, the "ace" of the staff, who I personally can't stand as a pitcher anywhere above #3 in the rotation,
It didn't take long for the Nationals to realize, indeed, Jason Marquis is not a good starting pitcher.
Why the Nationals went out and signed the corpse of Ivan Rodriguez I don't understand. Maybe they are hoping he can teach the Nationals hitters the best way to use PEDs and not get caught (I kid).
I'm not sure I was really kidding.
What I got wrong:
I don't really like that they are thinking of having Christian Guzman start over Ian Desmond. It is decisions like that which make question whether this team is going to succeed.
I don't know if I got this wrong exactly, but Guzman had an overall season that was slightly better or on-par with Desmond's season. I probably still would have played Desmond as much as they did.
Let's just say Matt Capps was a terrible signing. He's not a good closer.
I was completely wrong about this. Capps got traded to the Twins, in a deal that really favored the Nationals (they got back Wilson Ramos), and he was a good closer this year. Of all the signings this offseason for the Nationals, Capps was probably one of the best ones.
Nyjer Morgan was an actual steal by the Nats from the Pirates
I should have used the term "steal" a little bit less loosely. Morgan is a speed guy who got caught stealing 33% of the time and has no power.
So that's it. That's how I did in the my MLB Preview this year. I hope you enjoyed following up on my idiocy. I don't remember who I picked for the World Series. I wish I did.
Friday, October 8, 2010
3 comments MLB 2010 Team Preview Review Part 1
I was going to see what Bill Simmons wrote today and see if it was worthy of being posted here, but the Boston Sports Guy has an entire column up about the Randy Moss trade. I keep getting confused why an ESPNBoston columnist has his columns posted on Page 2, but that may just be me. So not shockingly, Simmons has a column up about the Randy Moss trade and ignores MLB postseason because the Red Sox aren't "prominently involved" (those are the words he would use). So the Boston Sports Guy posts something about Boston, because we all care about what happens with his favorite teams in every sport. So I will ignore it because I don't give a shit about Randy Moss getting traded and could care even less about what Bill Simmons has to say about it as he rams his Boston-centric focus down our respective throats.
(I would have no problem with his point of view if ESPN still called him the Boston Sports Guy. That's what he writes about mostly. It is fine, but don't take away the "Boston" and think you are fooling everyone.)
I began the baseball season with a preview of each team in Major League Baseball and now that the season has ended, I thought I would do a review of how well/poorly I did. Obviously I am not an expert, but I figure unlike a lot of the real "experts" if I am going to make predictions and say things about a team before the season I may as well hold myself accountable to what I said. So I will give the final record, my predicted record, what I said that was right and what I said that was wrong for each team. You can find what I wrote about each team in the preview under the tag "MLB Preview." I will do 15 teams for this week and then finish with the remaining 15 teams next week.
Arizona Diamondbacks
Final record: 65-97
Predicted record: 84-78
What I said right: Very little. When you are nearly 20 games off a team's final record there isn't much positive to say.
I also think as much as I just ragged on Stephen Drew, a team could do a lot worse than him. I don't care for Chris Young and I just get this feeling the lineup should be absolutely lethal at this point. It is just not where I want it to be.
The D-backs were 16th in MLB in runs scored, Chris Young had the best year of his career and was elected to be an All-Star, so I was sort of wrong about that. Stephen Drew had a pretty good year though and my lukewarm sentiment was supposed to be an endorsement. Other than that, I wasn't exactly spot-on with this team. I bought high on them, even though I pointed out the lineup was disappointing and the pitching wasn't very strong, and ended up being incorrect.
What I said wrong:
I was excited to see the D-backs picked up Edwin Jackson. With Webb being healthy and Jackson finally being a legitimate #3 starter I like the D-backs rotation.
Jackson had one great game and then showed he may not be a #3 starter after all.
I like the D-backs because I think this lineup is going to be fairly strong, the front end of the rotation looks good and I think the bullpen should hold up fairly well.
The D-Backs were 28th in ERA, 23rd in starter ERA, and 30th in reliever ERA. They were terrible.
Atlanta Braves
Final record: 91-71
Predicted record: 80-82
What I said right: I missed the record pretty badly, but I didn't believe in this Braves team and I was wrong not to.
Trusting in Troy Glaus to rebound from injuries this year seems like a desperation move to me and if he gets hurt who plays 1B? The best thing the Braves could do is use go ahead and play Jason Heyward if he wins the job out of spring training and worry about him being a Super Two later.
I was right about Heyward. After a great start, Glaus went M.I.A. and hasn't played in nearly a month and a half. The answer was that Derrek Lee would play 1B in his absence, which isn't an answer I wanted.
The Braves rotation should be nearly as good as it was last year, it's just they may have to throw shutouts every night to win games.
The Braves were 13th in the majors in runs, but after injuries set in for them to Martin Prado and Chipper Jones, it did feel like they struggled for runs.
Weak in the outfield, no pop in the batting order and a team that will rely on 3 guys to score some runs. Does the offense have potential? Yes, it does, but it still lacks power in the outfield and the team has their fingers crossed for good health a bit much for my taste.
There was still no power in the outfield the entire year and I have no idea how the injuries didn't kill the Braves worse than it should have.
What I said wrong:
The bullpen will be this team's downfall. There is too much reliance on guys who are too old.
The bullpen was a strength for them with the 3rd best bullpen ERA in baseball. Other than that, I actually got a lot of the Braves preview correct, they just won more games than I expected they would.
Baltimore Orioles
Final record: 72-90
Predicted record: 66-96..
What I got right:
HERE is the problem with the Baltimore Orioles. They in no way have the pitching necessary to compete in the AL East.
They were 27th in ERA and 22nd in quality starts.
I have heard positive things about Brian Matusz and I think possibly next year he could make a difference for this team, but not this year.
So I was right and wrong about this. Matusz didn't pitch terribly this year, though his numbers weren't overly impressive he did show some potential for the Orioles.
What I got wrong:
The signing of Kevin Millwood is going to be important because he is a major upgrade in the starting rotation
4-16 and a 5.10 ERA. That's not an upgrade.
I love the lineup for the Orioles, mostly the outfield, but this team is going to score runs in my mind,
The lineup I loved was 27th in runs scored and 24th in OBP. Adam Jones took a step back this year and Markakis didn't have a great year for what he had shown previously.
Boston Red Sox
Final record: 97-65
Predicted record: 89-73
What I got right:
Bottom line, I like the lineup, and I actually like the depth of the lineup with Mike Lowell, Jed Lowrie, Bill Hall, Jason Varitek and Jeremy Hermida on the bench. They have what I consider a more balanced lineup this year.
Admittedly, I did worry about some problems in the lineup in my preview, but I did like the depth of it. I think the depth showed through when the massive amount of injuries hit.
I also love the ability some of the Red Sox players have to play multiple positions. Youkilis can play 1B and 3B and Martinez can play C and 1B. So that way if there is an injury to Beltre, Lowell, or Youkilis (not all at the same time)
Little did I know this would be almost true and these three players very well ended up all injured at the same time.
What I got wrong:
Clearly there is an incredible amount of depth here and it may not matter what the hitters for the Red Sox can do because the pitching is the best in baseball from starter #1 to starter #6.
There was depth, but ineffectiveness and injuries destroyed that depth. The Red Sox were 22nd in ERA and 17th in quality starts. It's all relative, but that's not good for a team that wants to compete in the AL East.
Chicago Cubs
Final record: 75-87
Predicted record: 77-85
What I got right: Besides the record, which I am somewhat proud of...
This Cubs lineup has the feel of either "we are going to blow this up and start over" or "this is the year these guys click and the Cubs can make the World Series."
I think they are heading for the "blow this up" route.
I don't think there is an in-between. Lou Piniella will either get a contract extension or just basically quit on this team.
Yes, I actually said this. I am like a sage, except not really. Piniella didn't quit on the Cubs, but he retired mid-year, which I don't believe would have happened if they were winning.
I don't like this team that much this year based on the lineup, the fact I do have some questions about the bullpen and the shit smell I just get from this team.
They were 29th in reliever ERA.
What I got wrong:
I have a hard time feeling good about a 34 year old coming off surgery in Ted Lilly and I don't know if they will get 2008 Ryan Dempster or 2009 Ryan Dempster. It wouldn't shock me to see Randy Wells end up being one of the better pitchers on this staff.
Lilly had a decent year and so did Dempster. Randy Wells was not one of the better pitchers on the staff.
Chicago White Sox
Final record: 88-74
Predicted record: 89-73
If only every team played in Chicago I could get my predicted records looking good.
What I got right:
Other than Konerko, I don't know exactly where the hitting is going to come from if both of those guys struggle. I see hitting as this team's problem, but I do think they will find a way to solve that problem with the guys on the roster.
Paul Konerko was easily the White Sox best hitter this year and the good hitting came from Alex Rios and even Andruw Jones. I am not sure I could exactly see that coming.
What I got wrong:
I would bet $100 it takes less than a month for Dan Hudson to take that spot from him.
I am talking about Freddy Garcia and Garcia had a good enough year to hold down the 5th starter spot for nearly the entire season and Dan Hudson made three starts. That's it. I would have lost $100 and even more respect for myself if someone made this agreement with me.
I like the choices the White Sox have in the lineup and I of course really like the pitching rotation of the White Sox.
The White Sox pitching rotation really wasn't especially great this year. They were 6th in quality starts though, so they weren't altogether terrible.
Cincinnati Reds
Final record: 91-71
Predicted record: 82-80
What I got right:
Throw in the uncertainty in exactly what we will get from some of the pitchers in the rotation and I think, as I have said they will be the official National League "team no one wants to play" for this year.
They were an improved team for sure this year. I don't know if they got this unofficial designation, but they had a good year.
This is the first year in a while I have looked at the Reds and thought, "if this goes right and if this goes right, I see them having a shot at winning the division."
I guess all things went right for them because I also repeatedly said they could win the division next year...not in 2010, but 2011.
What I got wrong:
First, I only mentioned Joey Votto twice in my preview. Since he could very well be the NL MVP that was a huge oversight. Huge. Quickly.
I am pretty sure you don't pay $30 million to Aroldis Chapman for him to be a long reliever or go down to the minor leagues or at least I hope not.
They did send him down.
I am not sure the Reds lineup has enough firepower to compete in the NL Central.
Right...because it took a lot of firepower to keep up with Milwaukee, Pittsburgh and Houston.
Cleveland Indians
Final record: 69-93
My prediction: 68-94
Again, not a bad prediction. I am either really close or way off these predictions.
What I got right:
I have a feeling if Westbrook has a good first half of the season he will be wearing a new uniform come late July.
There you go. I predicted the Indians would trade a pitcher. It was a shock to everyone, I know.
What I got wrong:
Nobody knows what the hell happened to Fausto Carmona and there is a slight chance Justin Masterson may be the best pitcher on the staff.
Flip those around and it may be more accurate.
I am excited to watch LaPorta play everyday and see what some of the young guys on the Indians roster are able to do. I don't think they are going to be very good, but it will still be interesting this year.
LaPorta didn't have a great year, Manson wasn't good either, and neither was Michael Brantley. It was fun watching Carlos Santana for a while though.
Colorado Rockies
Final record: 83-79
My prediction: 94-68
What I got right:
Though many Rockies writers bemoaned the trade of Matt Holliday (Woody Paige especially), I think after realizing that Huston Street isn't all that bad of a closer and Carlos Gonzalez has the potential to be a special hitter these people all came around.
Carlos Gonzalez did become a special hitter this year (albeit only at home) and Street had a pretty good year when he was healthy.
This lineup is a nice combination of productive veterans, young guys who could take the leap and relatively young guys who can hit.
They were 8th in runs scored.
What I got wrong:
They have good hitters and they are strengthening their pitching just by having guys come back from injuries.
I counted a lot on Jeff Francis coming all the way back and that didn't happen. The Rockies pitching was what I missed on this year.
Detroit Tigers
Final record: 81-81
My prediction: 82-80
What I got right:
they didn't sign Polanco and he is being replaced by Scott Sizemore. It is going to be hard to think either of the new players can replace the production of Granderson or Polanco.
I got this right and wrong. Sizemore did not replace Polanco's production, but Jackson was great and looks like he replaced Granderson well.
I see the Tigers being 2nd or 3rd in the AL Central this year due to lack of overall pitching depth and a lineup that seems to have some holes in it when it comes to hitting the baseball.
The Tigers ended up third. The lineup and pitching depth did seem to be the problem this year. After Scherzer and Verlander there wasn't much starting pitching and Cabrera didn't much too help hitting either.
I like that the Tigers seem to be smart and see they need to push Gerald Laird out on an iceberg at this point and let Alex Avila slowly take over the catcher spot.
They started to do this, which is a good thing.
What I got wrong:
Of course the top part of the rotation with Verlander and Porcello (assuming he doesn't hit a sophomore slump) is a pretty good start to any rotation.
Porcello hit the sophomore slump so he wasn't part of the "good" part of the rotation.
Florida Marlins
Final record: 80-82
My prediction: 78-84
What I got right:
So in lieu of going further into this Marlins lineup that doesn't look terribly good, but is, I will say Mike Stanton is a ridiculous hitter and fielder.
He began to show how good he truly will be. The Yankees are looking forward to having him in their outfield in 2013. He really needs to work on cutting down his strikeouts though.
I don't know if Nunez has the closer mentality in him and his statistics in the short time he has had to close out games proves this.
He blew 8 out of 38 save opportunities. That's not good.
Count me in as one of those people are who counting the Marlins out this year. Fredi Gonzalez will get fired and then Atlanta will hire him to replace Bobby Cox when he retires after this season.
Step 1: Done.
Step 2: In process.
What I got wrong:
I would not be surprised to see a healthy Anibal Sanchez to make the leap like Josh Johnson has made.
Sanchez went 13-12 with a 3.55 ERA and a 1.34 WHIP. I am not sure he made the leap.
Morrison could end up in a platoon with Gaby Sanchez and I would like this platoon very much.
They didn't platoon because Sanchez was the clear best first baseman while Morrison got stuck in the outfield.
Houston Astros
Final record: 76-86
My prediction: 68-94
What I got right:
They have Lindstrom as the closer and Lyon as the main set up guy. I don't know how long this will last. I can see these roles being reversed at least once this year.
As of August 1, Brandon Lyon was the closer...and it was overdue before that. Matt Lindstrom was terrible.
I feel like they are half-ass rebuilding and I don't like that. This isn't a terrible team, but just a team with decent players at certain positions and holes at other positions.
The Astros are still built that way. They didn't get too much for Lance Berkman and I am shocked they got some value in return for Roy Oswalt since the Astros management essentially seems to be clueless.
What I got wrong:
They paid $12 million for Brett Myers? Where is the justification for this? I know the team needs pitching, but my God can't the money be used somewhere else on this roster?
I still don't know why they signed Brett Myers, I would have given that rotation spot to Felipe Paulino and just given him a shot.
I still don't think I was completely wrong about this. I know Myers had a great year and was the anchor of the staff, but I still would not have spent $12 million him. Of course then they signed him to an extension, hopefully with plans to trade him next year at the trade deadline. Maybe Felipe Paulino wasn't a great idea to be in the rotation, but the Astros are still spending money while rebuilding, which isn't working for them.
Kansas City Royals
Final record: 67-95
My prediction: 71-91
What I got right:
How terrible this team was. Yuniesky Betancourt led the team in RBI's (or was tied with Billy Butler). Read that again. That's not good.
The Royals willingly signed Jason Kendall this offseason. Why? I know it is supposedly for the sake of defense and that is fine when you have a team with decent hitters other places in the lineup and a starting rotation that will prevent the other team from scoring runs.
I was 100% right about this. Kendall still sucks.
So not only can the Royals not develop any good, young pitcher even though they have a high draft pick every year, they can't even develop other team's good young pitchers either.
The Royals have taken on Phillip Humber and Bryan Bullington, and why not, the Pirates and Twins probably just couldn't develop these guys properly right? When have the Twins ever developed a prospect?
There was no pitcher who started a game for the Royals who ended the year with an ERA below 4.00. The bullpen was the only area that had pitchers with ERA's below 4.00, so if the bullpen had been as bad as the starting pitching this team could have been even worse.
What I got wrong:
In fact, this lineup has no building blocks, just expensive useless players like Jose Guillen and just fairly useless players like Scott Podsednik.
Podsednik may not have been useless because he did contribute something before he got traded. That "something" was 30 stolen bases and a decent OBP.
There also isn't a whole lot in the bullpen that I like.
The bullpen was the "strength" of this team. This team seems to be overwhelmingly still moving the wrong way.
Los Angeles Angels
Final record: 80-82
My prediction: 92-70
Big miss here. I was way off.
What I got right:
This is the part of the Angels team I am not quite as giddy about as some other people seem to currently be. Lackey wasn't a true #1 starter but he was doing a good job of impersonating one in Los Angeles over the past couple of years. The Angels have a set starting rotation with Erwin Santana, Jered Weaver, Joe Saunders, Scott Kazmir and Joel Pineiro. I feel like I should like this rotation a little more than I do.
This is the closest I got to getting something right about the Angels, other than my babbling about how their players may get old all at the same time. The Angels pitching was merely average this year and they walked a lot of batters. The rotation wasn't bad, but I had a good reason to not like the rotation more than I did.
I didn't think I would like the Angels as much as I do. In all seriousness, I think I may like this year's lineup better than the one featuring Vlad, Matthews, and Figgins.
No. Absolutely not. This team was 27th in OBP, 23rd in BAA, and 20th in SLG %. This was not a good offensive lineup. A lot of that may have had to do with Morales' injury, but that isn't the whole cause.
I know that is being fairly picky with a bullpen that features solid guys like Brian Stokes, Kevin Jespen, and Jason Bulger. A lot of this pen's effectiveness depends on the health of Rodney and Shields.
They were fairly healthy, just not very good at pitching when they were healthy.
Really that is a bad reason to not like a team. I don't think this will be as good a team as last year's Angel team but they will still be in the hunt for the AL West.
Fail.
Los Angeles Dodgers
Final record: 80-82
My prediction: 86-76
What I got right:
I also like Broxton, but I am a little nervous that he had blown some saves last year. It's not like he had a bad streak or anything and his saves weren't back-to-back, but he just would randomly blow saves during the season. He also blew saves at a rate that I feel was a little high for a guy with his stuff.
Broxton did have an off-year in 2010, and I have defended him in the past, but he has blown a few too many saves, though I wouldn't agree with Plaschke that he should be traded.
A weaker offense, less depth, a weaker rotation (even with improved pitching from Kershaw and Billingsley), and a tough division all adds up to a Dodgers team that doesn't do as well this year as last year.
I was right about the Dodgers struggling this year, but sort of wrong. This team did even worse than I thought they would do.
What I got wrong:
I personally like this lineup, but of course I am sucker for a lineup full of young guys with potential.
Overall, I actually like this lineup of the Dodgers.
The Dodgers were 21st in runs scored. A couple of guys like Kemp, Loney and Ethier either didn't progress or took a step back this year. This wasn't a good lineup.
I don't know if Kuroda is a 3rd starter and I am not sure if Padilla is a 4th starter either.
Kuroda had a great year and was the second-best starter on the Dodgers pitching staff.
The Dodgers have an advantage other teams don't in that they have a young, great closer in Jonathan Broxton and a reliable set up guy with George Sherrill, who can close games if necessary.
Sherrill wasn't reliable at all. He had an ERA over 6.
If the Dodgers have a lead in the late innings, I feel confident the pen is going to be able to hold it, provided Broxton gets over his blown saves problem from last year, which I think will happen.
It didn't happen. I missed on the Dodgers pretty badly because I overrated their offense and thought their bullpen was better than it really was.
I will be back next week with the second half of my MLB 2010 Team Preview Review.
(I would have no problem with his point of view if ESPN still called him the Boston Sports Guy. That's what he writes about mostly. It is fine, but don't take away the "Boston" and think you are fooling everyone.)
I began the baseball season with a preview of each team in Major League Baseball and now that the season has ended, I thought I would do a review of how well/poorly I did. Obviously I am not an expert, but I figure unlike a lot of the real "experts" if I am going to make predictions and say things about a team before the season I may as well hold myself accountable to what I said. So I will give the final record, my predicted record, what I said that was right and what I said that was wrong for each team. You can find what I wrote about each team in the preview under the tag "MLB Preview." I will do 15 teams for this week and then finish with the remaining 15 teams next week.
Arizona Diamondbacks
Final record: 65-97
Predicted record: 84-78
What I said right: Very little. When you are nearly 20 games off a team's final record there isn't much positive to say.
I also think as much as I just ragged on Stephen Drew, a team could do a lot worse than him. I don't care for Chris Young and I just get this feeling the lineup should be absolutely lethal at this point. It is just not where I want it to be.
The D-backs were 16th in MLB in runs scored, Chris Young had the best year of his career and was elected to be an All-Star, so I was sort of wrong about that. Stephen Drew had a pretty good year though and my lukewarm sentiment was supposed to be an endorsement. Other than that, I wasn't exactly spot-on with this team. I bought high on them, even though I pointed out the lineup was disappointing and the pitching wasn't very strong, and ended up being incorrect.
What I said wrong:
I was excited to see the D-backs picked up Edwin Jackson. With Webb being healthy and Jackson finally being a legitimate #3 starter I like the D-backs rotation.
Jackson had one great game and then showed he may not be a #3 starter after all.
I like the D-backs because I think this lineup is going to be fairly strong, the front end of the rotation looks good and I think the bullpen should hold up fairly well.
The D-Backs were 28th in ERA, 23rd in starter ERA, and 30th in reliever ERA. They were terrible.
Atlanta Braves
Final record: 91-71
Predicted record: 80-82
What I said right: I missed the record pretty badly, but I didn't believe in this Braves team and I was wrong not to.
Trusting in Troy Glaus to rebound from injuries this year seems like a desperation move to me and if he gets hurt who plays 1B? The best thing the Braves could do is use go ahead and play Jason Heyward if he wins the job out of spring training and worry about him being a Super Two later.
I was right about Heyward. After a great start, Glaus went M.I.A. and hasn't played in nearly a month and a half. The answer was that Derrek Lee would play 1B in his absence, which isn't an answer I wanted.
The Braves rotation should be nearly as good as it was last year, it's just they may have to throw shutouts every night to win games.
The Braves were 13th in the majors in runs, but after injuries set in for them to Martin Prado and Chipper Jones, it did feel like they struggled for runs.
Weak in the outfield, no pop in the batting order and a team that will rely on 3 guys to score some runs. Does the offense have potential? Yes, it does, but it still lacks power in the outfield and the team has their fingers crossed for good health a bit much for my taste.
There was still no power in the outfield the entire year and I have no idea how the injuries didn't kill the Braves worse than it should have.
What I said wrong:
The bullpen will be this team's downfall. There is too much reliance on guys who are too old.
The bullpen was a strength for them with the 3rd best bullpen ERA in baseball. Other than that, I actually got a lot of the Braves preview correct, they just won more games than I expected they would.
Baltimore Orioles
Final record: 72-90
Predicted record: 66-96..
What I got right:
HERE is the problem with the Baltimore Orioles. They in no way have the pitching necessary to compete in the AL East.
They were 27th in ERA and 22nd in quality starts.
I have heard positive things about Brian Matusz and I think possibly next year he could make a difference for this team, but not this year.
So I was right and wrong about this. Matusz didn't pitch terribly this year, though his numbers weren't overly impressive he did show some potential for the Orioles.
What I got wrong:
The signing of Kevin Millwood is going to be important because he is a major upgrade in the starting rotation
4-16 and a 5.10 ERA. That's not an upgrade.
I love the lineup for the Orioles, mostly the outfield, but this team is going to score runs in my mind,
The lineup I loved was 27th in runs scored and 24th in OBP. Adam Jones took a step back this year and Markakis didn't have a great year for what he had shown previously.
Boston Red Sox
Final record: 97-65
Predicted record: 89-73
What I got right:
Bottom line, I like the lineup, and I actually like the depth of the lineup with Mike Lowell, Jed Lowrie, Bill Hall, Jason Varitek and Jeremy Hermida on the bench. They have what I consider a more balanced lineup this year.
Admittedly, I did worry about some problems in the lineup in my preview, but I did like the depth of it. I think the depth showed through when the massive amount of injuries hit.
I also love the ability some of the Red Sox players have to play multiple positions. Youkilis can play 1B and 3B and Martinez can play C and 1B. So that way if there is an injury to Beltre, Lowell, or Youkilis (not all at the same time)
Little did I know this would be almost true and these three players very well ended up all injured at the same time.
What I got wrong:
Clearly there is an incredible amount of depth here and it may not matter what the hitters for the Red Sox can do because the pitching is the best in baseball from starter #1 to starter #6.
There was depth, but ineffectiveness and injuries destroyed that depth. The Red Sox were 22nd in ERA and 17th in quality starts. It's all relative, but that's not good for a team that wants to compete in the AL East.
Chicago Cubs
Final record: 75-87
Predicted record: 77-85
What I got right: Besides the record, which I am somewhat proud of...
This Cubs lineup has the feel of either "we are going to blow this up and start over" or "this is the year these guys click and the Cubs can make the World Series."
I think they are heading for the "blow this up" route.
I don't think there is an in-between. Lou Piniella will either get a contract extension or just basically quit on this team.
Yes, I actually said this. I am like a sage, except not really. Piniella didn't quit on the Cubs, but he retired mid-year, which I don't believe would have happened if they were winning.
I don't like this team that much this year based on the lineup, the fact I do have some questions about the bullpen and the shit smell I just get from this team.
They were 29th in reliever ERA.
What I got wrong:
I have a hard time feeling good about a 34 year old coming off surgery in Ted Lilly and I don't know if they will get 2008 Ryan Dempster or 2009 Ryan Dempster. It wouldn't shock me to see Randy Wells end up being one of the better pitchers on this staff.
Lilly had a decent year and so did Dempster. Randy Wells was not one of the better pitchers on the staff.
Chicago White Sox
Final record: 88-74
Predicted record: 89-73
If only every team played in Chicago I could get my predicted records looking good.
What I got right:
Other than Konerko, I don't know exactly where the hitting is going to come from if both of those guys struggle. I see hitting as this team's problem, but I do think they will find a way to solve that problem with the guys on the roster.
Paul Konerko was easily the White Sox best hitter this year and the good hitting came from Alex Rios and even Andruw Jones. I am not sure I could exactly see that coming.
What I got wrong:
I would bet $100 it takes less than a month for Dan Hudson to take that spot from him.
I am talking about Freddy Garcia and Garcia had a good enough year to hold down the 5th starter spot for nearly the entire season and Dan Hudson made three starts. That's it. I would have lost $100 and even more respect for myself if someone made this agreement with me.
I like the choices the White Sox have in the lineup and I of course really like the pitching rotation of the White Sox.
The White Sox pitching rotation really wasn't especially great this year. They were 6th in quality starts though, so they weren't altogether terrible.
Cincinnati Reds
Final record: 91-71
Predicted record: 82-80
What I got right:
Throw in the uncertainty in exactly what we will get from some of the pitchers in the rotation and I think, as I have said they will be the official National League "team no one wants to play" for this year.
They were an improved team for sure this year. I don't know if they got this unofficial designation, but they had a good year.
This is the first year in a while I have looked at the Reds and thought, "if this goes right and if this goes right, I see them having a shot at winning the division."
I guess all things went right for them because I also repeatedly said they could win the division next year...not in 2010, but 2011.
What I got wrong:
First, I only mentioned Joey Votto twice in my preview. Since he could very well be the NL MVP that was a huge oversight. Huge. Quickly.
I am pretty sure you don't pay $30 million to Aroldis Chapman for him to be a long reliever or go down to the minor leagues or at least I hope not.
They did send him down.
I am not sure the Reds lineup has enough firepower to compete in the NL Central.
Right...because it took a lot of firepower to keep up with Milwaukee, Pittsburgh and Houston.
Cleveland Indians
Final record: 69-93
My prediction: 68-94
Again, not a bad prediction. I am either really close or way off these predictions.
What I got right:
I have a feeling if Westbrook has a good first half of the season he will be wearing a new uniform come late July.
There you go. I predicted the Indians would trade a pitcher. It was a shock to everyone, I know.
What I got wrong:
Nobody knows what the hell happened to Fausto Carmona and there is a slight chance Justin Masterson may be the best pitcher on the staff.
Flip those around and it may be more accurate.
I am excited to watch LaPorta play everyday and see what some of the young guys on the Indians roster are able to do. I don't think they are going to be very good, but it will still be interesting this year.
LaPorta didn't have a great year, Manson wasn't good either, and neither was Michael Brantley. It was fun watching Carlos Santana for a while though.
Colorado Rockies
Final record: 83-79
My prediction: 94-68
What I got right:
Though many Rockies writers bemoaned the trade of Matt Holliday (Woody Paige especially), I think after realizing that Huston Street isn't all that bad of a closer and Carlos Gonzalez has the potential to be a special hitter these people all came around.
Carlos Gonzalez did become a special hitter this year (albeit only at home) and Street had a pretty good year when he was healthy.
This lineup is a nice combination of productive veterans, young guys who could take the leap and relatively young guys who can hit.
They were 8th in runs scored.
What I got wrong:
They have good hitters and they are strengthening their pitching just by having guys come back from injuries.
I counted a lot on Jeff Francis coming all the way back and that didn't happen. The Rockies pitching was what I missed on this year.
Detroit Tigers
Final record: 81-81
My prediction: 82-80
What I got right:
they didn't sign Polanco and he is being replaced by Scott Sizemore. It is going to be hard to think either of the new players can replace the production of Granderson or Polanco.
I got this right and wrong. Sizemore did not replace Polanco's production, but Jackson was great and looks like he replaced Granderson well.
I see the Tigers being 2nd or 3rd in the AL Central this year due to lack of overall pitching depth and a lineup that seems to have some holes in it when it comes to hitting the baseball.
The Tigers ended up third. The lineup and pitching depth did seem to be the problem this year. After Scherzer and Verlander there wasn't much starting pitching and Cabrera didn't much too help hitting either.
I like that the Tigers seem to be smart and see they need to push Gerald Laird out on an iceberg at this point and let Alex Avila slowly take over the catcher spot.
They started to do this, which is a good thing.
What I got wrong:
Of course the top part of the rotation with Verlander and Porcello (assuming he doesn't hit a sophomore slump) is a pretty good start to any rotation.
Porcello hit the sophomore slump so he wasn't part of the "good" part of the rotation.
Florida Marlins
Final record: 80-82
My prediction: 78-84
What I got right:
So in lieu of going further into this Marlins lineup that doesn't look terribly good, but is, I will say Mike Stanton is a ridiculous hitter and fielder.
He began to show how good he truly will be. The Yankees are looking forward to having him in their outfield in 2013. He really needs to work on cutting down his strikeouts though.
I don't know if Nunez has the closer mentality in him and his statistics in the short time he has had to close out games proves this.
He blew 8 out of 38 save opportunities. That's not good.
Count me in as one of those people are who counting the Marlins out this year. Fredi Gonzalez will get fired and then Atlanta will hire him to replace Bobby Cox when he retires after this season.
Step 1: Done.
Step 2: In process.
What I got wrong:
I would not be surprised to see a healthy Anibal Sanchez to make the leap like Josh Johnson has made.
Sanchez went 13-12 with a 3.55 ERA and a 1.34 WHIP. I am not sure he made the leap.
Morrison could end up in a platoon with Gaby Sanchez and I would like this platoon very much.
They didn't platoon because Sanchez was the clear best first baseman while Morrison got stuck in the outfield.
Houston Astros
Final record: 76-86
My prediction: 68-94
What I got right:
They have Lindstrom as the closer and Lyon as the main set up guy. I don't know how long this will last. I can see these roles being reversed at least once this year.
As of August 1, Brandon Lyon was the closer...and it was overdue before that. Matt Lindstrom was terrible.
I feel like they are half-ass rebuilding and I don't like that. This isn't a terrible team, but just a team with decent players at certain positions and holes at other positions.
The Astros are still built that way. They didn't get too much for Lance Berkman and I am shocked they got some value in return for Roy Oswalt since the Astros management essentially seems to be clueless.
What I got wrong:
They paid $12 million for Brett Myers? Where is the justification for this? I know the team needs pitching, but my God can't the money be used somewhere else on this roster?
I still don't know why they signed Brett Myers, I would have given that rotation spot to Felipe Paulino and just given him a shot.
I still don't think I was completely wrong about this. I know Myers had a great year and was the anchor of the staff, but I still would not have spent $12 million him. Of course then they signed him to an extension, hopefully with plans to trade him next year at the trade deadline. Maybe Felipe Paulino wasn't a great idea to be in the rotation, but the Astros are still spending money while rebuilding, which isn't working for them.
Kansas City Royals
Final record: 67-95
My prediction: 71-91
What I got right:
How terrible this team was. Yuniesky Betancourt led the team in RBI's (or was tied with Billy Butler). Read that again. That's not good.
The Royals willingly signed Jason Kendall this offseason. Why? I know it is supposedly for the sake of defense and that is fine when you have a team with decent hitters other places in the lineup and a starting rotation that will prevent the other team from scoring runs.
I was 100% right about this. Kendall still sucks.
So not only can the Royals not develop any good, young pitcher even though they have a high draft pick every year, they can't even develop other team's good young pitchers either.
The Royals have taken on Phillip Humber and Bryan Bullington, and why not, the Pirates and Twins probably just couldn't develop these guys properly right? When have the Twins ever developed a prospect?
There was no pitcher who started a game for the Royals who ended the year with an ERA below 4.00. The bullpen was the only area that had pitchers with ERA's below 4.00, so if the bullpen had been as bad as the starting pitching this team could have been even worse.
What I got wrong:
In fact, this lineup has no building blocks, just expensive useless players like Jose Guillen and just fairly useless players like Scott Podsednik.
Podsednik may not have been useless because he did contribute something before he got traded. That "something" was 30 stolen bases and a decent OBP.
There also isn't a whole lot in the bullpen that I like.
The bullpen was the "strength" of this team. This team seems to be overwhelmingly still moving the wrong way.
Los Angeles Angels
Final record: 80-82
My prediction: 92-70
Big miss here. I was way off.
What I got right:
This is the part of the Angels team I am not quite as giddy about as some other people seem to currently be. Lackey wasn't a true #1 starter but he was doing a good job of impersonating one in Los Angeles over the past couple of years. The Angels have a set starting rotation with Erwin Santana, Jered Weaver, Joe Saunders, Scott Kazmir and Joel Pineiro. I feel like I should like this rotation a little more than I do.
This is the closest I got to getting something right about the Angels, other than my babbling about how their players may get old all at the same time. The Angels pitching was merely average this year and they walked a lot of batters. The rotation wasn't bad, but I had a good reason to not like the rotation more than I did.
I didn't think I would like the Angels as much as I do. In all seriousness, I think I may like this year's lineup better than the one featuring Vlad, Matthews, and Figgins.
No. Absolutely not. This team was 27th in OBP, 23rd in BAA, and 20th in SLG %. This was not a good offensive lineup. A lot of that may have had to do with Morales' injury, but that isn't the whole cause.
I know that is being fairly picky with a bullpen that features solid guys like Brian Stokes, Kevin Jespen, and Jason Bulger. A lot of this pen's effectiveness depends on the health of Rodney and Shields.
They were fairly healthy, just not very good at pitching when they were healthy.
Really that is a bad reason to not like a team. I don't think this will be as good a team as last year's Angel team but they will still be in the hunt for the AL West.
Fail.
Los Angeles Dodgers
Final record: 80-82
My prediction: 86-76
What I got right:
I also like Broxton, but I am a little nervous that he had blown some saves last year. It's not like he had a bad streak or anything and his saves weren't back-to-back, but he just would randomly blow saves during the season. He also blew saves at a rate that I feel was a little high for a guy with his stuff.
Broxton did have an off-year in 2010, and I have defended him in the past, but he has blown a few too many saves, though I wouldn't agree with Plaschke that he should be traded.
A weaker offense, less depth, a weaker rotation (even with improved pitching from Kershaw and Billingsley), and a tough division all adds up to a Dodgers team that doesn't do as well this year as last year.
I was right about the Dodgers struggling this year, but sort of wrong. This team did even worse than I thought they would do.
What I got wrong:
I personally like this lineup, but of course I am sucker for a lineup full of young guys with potential.
Overall, I actually like this lineup of the Dodgers.
The Dodgers were 21st in runs scored. A couple of guys like Kemp, Loney and Ethier either didn't progress or took a step back this year. This wasn't a good lineup.
I don't know if Kuroda is a 3rd starter and I am not sure if Padilla is a 4th starter either.
Kuroda had a great year and was the second-best starter on the Dodgers pitching staff.
The Dodgers have an advantage other teams don't in that they have a young, great closer in Jonathan Broxton and a reliable set up guy with George Sherrill, who can close games if necessary.
Sherrill wasn't reliable at all. He had an ERA over 6.
If the Dodgers have a lead in the late innings, I feel confident the pen is going to be able to hold it, provided Broxton gets over his blown saves problem from last year, which I think will happen.
It didn't happen. I missed on the Dodgers pretty badly because I overrated their offense and thought their bullpen was better than it really was.
I will be back next week with the second half of my MLB 2010 Team Preview Review.
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