9 comments 2011-2012 NBA Preview

I enjoy making predictions and I enjoy looking back and seeing how wrong/right I was about my predictions. So I figured I would go ahead and do an NBA Preview for the upcoming NBA season. I will make my predictions for the Eastern and Western Conference and then make my prediction for the playoffs and the winner of the NBA Finals. I have to say, I am pretty pumped for the beginning of the NBA season. I am actually happy it is a shortened season since I think the NBA and MLB seasons are probably too long as it is. I realize most NBA fans probably don't feel this way. I'll start first with the Eastern Conference teams. Hopefully I will remember to give each team a record based on 66 games and not 82 games.

Atlantic Division

Boston Celtics

What concerns me most about the Celtics is they are an aging team with a mediocre or average bench. The Celtics' nucleus is 34, 35, 36, and 25 years old. Naturally, the Celtics were looking to trade the 25 year old (Rondo) this offseason. The shortened season will help the Celtics, but they have the same problems now they had before the season began. Lack of big man depth and a need for bench scoring. When Jermaine O'Neal gets hurt again, the Celtics will use Chris Wilcox or Kevin Garnett as their center. That's scary to me. Jeff Green was a huge loss, simply because he could score off the bench. I really like JuJuan Johnson, but I don't know if he is the big guy off the bench the Celtics need. This will be a good team, but I can't help but wonder how much Garnett, Pierce, and Allen will get rested and what this will mean for the Celtics' record.

Record: 37-29

New Jersey Nets

I'm assuming the Nets don't land Dwight Howard. Think the Magic were a bit nervous after reading how Brook Lopez admits he was a lazy rebounder last year? This is the centerpiece for Howard (outside of draft picks)? A guy who says basically, "Fuck it. My teammate seems to be rebounding well, I'll let him take care of it." I may be overreacting a bit, but should this be concerning? Of course, as I write this Brook Lopez is out for six weeks with a foot injury. The Nets have four guys with the last name "Williams" on the roster. I found that interesting. I like MarShon Brooks a lot. He and Anthony Morrow will at least give Deron Williams some wing players to pass the ball to who can score. I'm not real optimistic about the current nature of the roster. This Nets season is going to be judged mostly on what the Nets roster ends up looking like, not what it looks like now.

Record (with the current roster): 28-38

New York Knicks

I like the addition of Tyson Chandler a lot. Mostly because it allows Amar'e Stoudemire to focus more on his strengths...which isn't defending opposing centers. What the Knicks need the most is quality role players around Anthony, Stoudemire, and Chandler. The loss of Billups will hurt, but the Knicks have scorers like Toney Douglas and Landry Fields that can make up backcourt scoring. Other than that, there is a reason the Knicks want Chris Paul or Deron Williams. The Knicks may not win the NBA title this year, but they have improved since last year. Regardles, barring a Stoudemire/Anthony/Chandler injury, this is a Knicks team that will be a dangerous out in the playoffs. If they defend well, they could even make the NBA Finals.

Record: 44-22

Philadelphia 76ers

This is clearly a team on the upswing with a coach that seems to have a ton of energy. Doug Collins seems like the perfect coach to get a young team to play together. Then, once the team ages a little bit, his energy probably doesn't go over as well. Jrue Holiday will probably take another step forward this year and force people to consider him one of the more elite point guards in the NBA. That's the hope at least. They still need a quality big man and either Hawes, Speights or Vucevic has to be competent enough to cover the center spot, right? Let's call them Haeightsevic. Haeightsevic, it sounds like a Bosnian warlord. I like the 76ers this year, mostly because they seem to have two guys looking to take another step forward (Turner, Holiday) and a roster with talent which has a coach that can mold that talent. Hopefully, other players (cough, Thaddeus Young) won't take a step back and the center position gets covered someway, somehow.

Record: 38-28

Toronto Raptors

I'm not sure how to feel about a team whose top draft pick is playing overseas this year. It's not the Raptors fault Valanciunas isn't going to play in America or Canada, but this has to suck for them. Any playoff success for the Raptors this season is dependent upon Ed Davis' increased production and the rest of the NBA teams disbanding completely. Of course if Ed Davis increases his production then he will be taking minutes away from the overpaid Amir Johnson. It's like a Catch 22. Do the Raptors want Ed Davis to take away an overpaid player's minutes or do they want to prove Amir Johnson isn't overpaid? The point of drafting Valanciunas was to put Bargnani at power forward, so he is still stuck at a bad position for him and this team just isn't good enough to compete in a tough division. The good news is the Raptors should have an inside track to the #1 pick in the 2012 NBA Draft, which doesn't seem to contain any foreign-born players. Anthony Davis should start doing research on Toronto fairly soon.

Record: 17-49

Central Division

Chicago Bulls

Maybe this year the Bulls won't force Derrick Rose to do everything on the court. The Bulls needed a shooting guard and they ended up with Rip Hamilton. If this were 2005, I would probably be more excited about this development. He will help the Bulls score points, but the rest of the roster doesn't seem upgraded to me. They aren't going to be the best team in the Eastern Conference this year. Boozer got outperformed in the playoffs by his backup, who really isn't anything other than above average at very best. As good as the Bulls team looked last year, they seem to have really good, but not great, pieces around Derrick Rose. They should look good in the regular season, but unless they find a way to give Derrick Rose an actual #2 scoring option, they won't make the NBA Finals. This is a team that I believe needs to make a trade to compete with the Knicks and Heat in the Eastern Conference.

Record: 40-26

Indiana Pacers

You may ask me why I can go negative on the Bulls, but say positive things about the Pacers, when the Pacers probably need another shooting guard. I just can. I really like the Pacers starting five if David West rebounds from his ACL surgery. The Pacers have a legit center, bench scoring, and a quality starting five. Remember they gave the Bulls fits in the first round last year and the Pacers have improved. They are my sleeper team for this year because they have great bench depth with Hansbrough, Hill, and Jones, plus the starting five. Did you know Paul George grew two inches during the lockout? He's 6'10" now! He is already 6'8" and gets two more inches? That's not fair. I wish I had two more inches of height. I think David West bounces back from his injury and George Hill was a great addition. I believe they will win the Central Division, in fact.

Record: 41-25

Milwaukee Bucks

The Bucks were a terrible scoring team last year. The worst. I did like their draft in getting Tobias Harris and Jon Leuer, but I'm not sure these guys are ready to make a difference this year. Those two guys project as role players on a good team and the Bucks aren't necessarily a good team. The Bucks have a quandary with Brandon Jennings. They need scoring, which Jennings can do, but they also need Jennings to distribute the ball more effectively. For the Bucks to succeed, Jennings needs to score, but distributing the ball better will also help the Bucks succeed. This Bucks team has all the makings of the 10th best team in the Eastern Conference. They play defense well enough to beat bad teams, but can't score enough to beat the good teams.

Record: 29-37

Detroit Pistons

There are teams who know how to rebuild on the fly. One of those teams is not the Detroit Pistons. While I have a massive man-crush on Brandon Knight, I feel like the Pistons already had him on the roster in the form of Rodney Stuckey. Add Will Bynum to the mix and the Pistons are collecting combo guards. I have no idea why they re-signed Tayshaun Prince. To me, that was spending money that could have gone other places on the roster for players that would make a bigger difference in the future than Prince will make. What's even better about that Prince signing is the Pistons overpaid for Charlie Villanueva just a couple summers ago. So the Pistons signed Prince to a contract that not only helped to block a young player, but they also took minutes away from another overpaid free signing they made. Brilliant personnel move. Lawrence Frank will have his hands full trying to prevent the Pistons combo guards from taking shots, when the ball should be going to Greg Monroe or Jonas Jerebko, which is where the ball should be going. I am not a huge fan of Austin Daye, but I thought the Pistons would be better off not paying another veteran big money and seeing what Daye can do with consistent minutes.

Record: 24-42

Cleveland Cavaliers

The Cavs are in complete rebuilding mode. I credit them for taking the chance to rebuild, cut away the fat (literally and figuratively when talking about Baron Davis...speaking of which, how well did that Clippers trade work out for the Cavs? They got cap space and the #1 overall pick), and try to form a nucleus around young players. The best thing the Cavs can do is make trades to give Tristan Thompson, Kyrie Irving, and Omar Casspi more quality players around them in the future. The Cavs need draft picks and cap space. The Cavs will be bad, maybe not as bad as last year, but their season will depend on further steps in the right direction on the personnel side, as well as what progress happens on the court. As much as I have knocked LeBron James for his "Decision," the Cavs team last year was pretty much the team they put around James to win an NBA title. So his decision to leave should not have been that shocking had we known then what we now know.

Record: 13-53

Southeast Division

Atlanta Hawks

I feel like I should give them extra credit for having Magnum Rolle on their roster, but I probably shouldn't do that. It's a great name. It's almost like his parents named him after what they didn't have on their person immediately before he was conceived. Traditionally I am not a huge Hawks fan. They are always above average, but never seem to make that move that moves them up in the Eastern Conference pecking order. The Hawks lost Jamal Crawford and added Tracy McGrady, who has played 80 games in a season...um...never. Can you believe McGrady is only 32 years old? Either way, I think the Eastern Conference is improved. The Hawks are relying on Jeff Teague to run the offense while Hinrich is out. He played well in the playoffs last year, so I will be interested to see how he looks over a full season. I don't know if the Hawks are a bad team, they just haven't improved while other teams in their division have improved.

Record: 37-29

Miami Heat

I see no reason why the Heat won't return to the NBA Finals. If Chris Bosh can continue to accept his position as the third best player on the team and Eddy Curry continues his dominance (just wanted to make sure you were still paying attention) this is a Finals team. I'm personally not happy with Shane Battier that he joined the Heat. I thought he was better than that. He will provide leadership (whatever that is worth), as well as a competent backup at a few positions. Great get for the Heat. Juwan Howard resigned with the Heat in his second attempt to ride Wade/James/Bosh's coattails to an NBA ring. I wish him luck and can't wait to see him talk shit to opposing players as he sits his ass on the bench doing nothing. Hopefully Miami will have a healthy Mike Miller this year and they do have a better bench compared to last year. Less drama and more talent equals more success.

Record: 54-12

Orlando Magic

This is another team whose season will depend upon any trade made or not made. I'm betting Howard is gone, but until he is gone, I will assume the Magic have him on their roster. Glen "Big Baby" Davis feels free now that he isn't shackled behind Kevin Garnett, so that probably means nothing. He is a quality backup and I think more minutes than 30 per game will expose him for what he can't do. This is still a very good Magic team and I see them making the playoffs with their current makeup. Their success will depend on how well they play defense and hit three point shots. They still have good three point shooters and don't really seem like a much different team from last year. Perhaps that's why Howard wants to leave so badly.

Record: 46-20

Washington Wizards

The Wizards are much like the Cavs in that they are full committed to rebuilding. I really liked their draft and think Vesely will at least provide for a few highlight plays with Wall throwing him the ball. Shelvin Mack and Chris Singleton were good draft picks as role players. They won't be stars, but hopefully they will both get minutes this year. I like the direction the Wizards are heading and they could very well surprise us a little bit. As much as I like Kirk Hinrich, I thought the Wizards stole Jordan Crawford from the Hawks. The Wizards are young and talented, but I think they are a year away from making any significant noise. For this year, being exciting to watch should be enough for the time being.

Record: 30-36

Charlotte Bobcats

I don't like the Bismack Biyombo pick still. I don't know exactly why. Maybe it is the fact he was drafted based nearly entirely on potential. Those types of picks always scare me a bit. Corey Maggette should provide scoring, but I get the feeling the Bobcats are relying on a breakout year from Tyrus Thomas. They will probably keep waiting. This is a team that has very little size, no go-to scorer outside of Maggette and Kemba Walker and they look like an expansion team to me for some reason.

Record: 20-46

Eastern Conference Quarterfinals (Yes, I know these are the same teams from last year. What can I say? I don't think much has changed in the Eastern Conference.):

Eastern Conference Quarterfinals:

Miami over Atlanta
New York over Boston
Indiana over Philly
Chicago over Orlando

Eastern Conference Semifinals:

Miami over Chicago
Indiana over New York

Eastern Conference Finals:

Miami over Indiana

Now for the Western Conference...

Northwest Division

Oklahoma City Thunder

On paper, I absolutely adore the Thunder. In reality, I do too. They haven't added much to the roster, but they probably didn't need to. Kendrick Perkins should be healed up by the time the season starts and even though he probably won't get much playing time I thought Reggie Jackson was a great pick for the Thunder. He'll never play this year and probably ended up packaged for a 2nd round pick by midseason, but I like his game. The Thunder's year will depend on how well Perkins is able to recover from his injury and if James Harden takes another step forward. For me, Harden is the perfect #3 scorer on a great team. He can score when he needs to, but doesn't require the ball at all times so as to keep the ball out of the #1 and #2 scorer's hands. Another issue I am interested to see is how the relationship between Westbrook and Durant develops since there seemed to be some issues as to how would take the last shot last year. Otherwise, the Thunder are in great shape.

Record: 50-16

Portland Trailblazers

I really like the addition of Jamal Crawford and it would be incredibly helpful if Greg Oden could stay healthy. If the Blazers big men can stay healthy they will on track for the playoffs. LaMarcus Aldridge is one of the most underrated players in the NBA, even if people do know his name now, and Gerald Wallace will have a chance to make an impact for the entire season. If injuries hold this team back, it would be a shame because they are talented. I would say the Blazers are going to miss Brandon Roy, but they have been playing without him for a while now. I just wish Greg Oden could stay healthy.

Record: 43-23

Denver Nuggets

I don't know why, but the idea of Kenyon Martin and J.R. Smith being stuck in China amuses me for some reason. This would make for a good reality television show. Actually "good" has a whole new meaning when talking about reality television. It wouldn't actually be good, but I think people would watch it. Somewhere we've lost the difference between a "good" show and a show that gets high ratings. Either way, the Nuggets will miss them, but maybe not as much as originally thought since they re-signed Nene and traded for Rudy Fernandez. Even when Martin comes back from China in March, I can see some of his minutes not being immediately available. I like the addition of Andre Miller, but I hope he doesn't take too many minutes away from Ty Lawson, who I think could have a full-on breakout year in 2011-2012. I still like Faried, even if he isn't much better than just a guy who can come in the game and rebound like crazy. There's a place for guys like that. This will be a good Nuggets team, but I don't see them earning more than a 6th seed in the West.

Record: 39-27

Minnesota Timberwolves

The T-Wolves have nowhere to go but up, so I see them going up a little bit this year. They will at least be fun to watch. I have no idea why they signed J.J. Barea. Not a clue. It's not that Barea isn't a decent player, but I thought the point guard position was held down by Rubio and Ridnour. I don't like a team that is rebuilding to sign veterans to play in front of potential franchise cornerstones like Rubio. The T-Wolves have collected enigmas for the past few seasons and outside of Kevin Love it seems like they are counting on Derrick Williams and their enigmas (Beasley, Milicic, Randolph) to hold down the frontcourt. This team will improve if their GM can just get the hell out of the way and not do anything stupid. This is something David Khan has proven time and again he isn't capable of.

Record: 19-47

Utah Jazz

I enjoyed the Jazz's draft. I thought Enes Kanter is the kind of player they should take a chance on and Alec Burks can score, which is something the Jazz will need. Will they be stars? Probably not, but they can contribute to the team if given a chance. I'll be interested to see if Derrick Favors steps up and becomes a complement to Al Jefferson. I doubt it will happen since Favors seems to not enjoy the spotlight and has a history of his hype exceeding his production. I hope he proves me wrong because he should get more minutes than Paul Millsap based simply on talent. This is a rebuilding Jazz team that got stuck in a bad situation last year when Deron Williams indicated he wasn't re-signing with them. How each player performs this year decides which of these players will be a part of the rebuilding effort and which ones will be used to find different parts for the rebuilding. I'm excited to see how this team does. I am predicting it will be a mess.

Record: 25-41

Pacific Division

Los Angeles Lakers

I'm assuming they won't land Dwight Howard. This statement may seem obvious, but the Lakers are really going to miss Lamar Odom. He gave them versatility that is difficult to find. That being said, Josh McRoberts was a good addition. He can play center and power forward. He's like a poor man's poor man Lamar Odom. Still, this is a Lakers team with injury issues and miles on their best player's tires. Bryant is getting older, Fisher is old, Bynum is injury-prone, Gasol is probably insulted by the Lakers attempts to trade him (I have no idea how he'll react or if he will react to the failed trade) and Ron Artest is still insane. I'm not quite on the "Lakers won't make the playoffs" bandwagon yet, but if Bynum gets injured and Gasol continues to be insulted then this may be a tough year. To make matters worse, the Lakers have a new coach and a new system. If Mike Brown felt LeBron James tried to undermine him, he probably won't enjoy Kobe Bryant desperately trying to win another championship and subconsciously comparing everything Mike Brown does to how Phil Jackson would have done it. It looks like at this point trying to rebuild the team with a new superstar through trade may have backfired, at least in the short term. Still, the Lakers are going to try to find a way to add another superstar in the long term.

Record: 40-26

Los Angeles Clippers

I'm not sure if you have heard, but Chris Paul got traded for the Clippers now. This story may have eluded you, but I just wanted you to be aware. I like the trade for Paul and it will make the Clippers much more fun to watch and also makes them a better team. The Clippers are going to miss Eric Gordon because he was their best outside shooting threat. The Clippers probably overpaid for Caron Butler and DeAndre Jordan, but they had no choice in regard to Jordan since even with him on the roster they probably need a bit more height. Having traded Chris Kaman they needed a big man in the middle. The Clippers remind me of a more explosive Chicago Bulls in that they need an upgrade at shooting guard, but at least they are relevant now for something other than Blake Griffin's dunks and Donald Sterlings overt racism.

Record: 45-21

Phoenix Suns

So what's the plan? To use a Bill Simmons-type analogy, the Suns are like a Saturday night where you are having a few beers in preparation for a great night out, but haven't taken a shower in order to go out to the bars. You staying in or going out? Are the Suns rebuilding or trying to squeak another year of contention out of Nash? Well both, actually. I call this plan "failure," because that's what I predict it will be. The Suns aren't good enough to compete for the playoffs, but they also aren't going younger in an effort to rebuild. Steve Nash deserves better than this. He deserves better than to be surrounding with a supporting cast of borderline starters and quality bench players. At least they have a quality center in Marcin Gortat, but this is a team that isn't sure which direction it wants to go and it just isn't fair to run a team this way.

Record: 29-37

Golden State Warriors

The "new" Warriors are like the old Warriors. Cue "Won't Get Fooled Again" on the loudspeakers before every game. The Warriors drafted Klay Thompson because for some reason they believe they need more scoring and need guys who like to shoot. I would really like the Warriors if they could find a way to combine David Lee and Epke Udoh into one person. I'm still not sure why the Warriors took a defensive specialist who can't find the basket so early in the 2010 NBA Draft, but this is a team that drafted another defensive-challenged scorer in the 2011 NBA Draft. So for me, when guessing what the Warriors would do, it is probably the opposite of what I would do. The best thing for the Warriors is to play their younger big men (i.e. I mean "anyone but Kwame Brown) to see if any of them can play the center position with any toughness. I have my money on Udoh. Let's see if he can prove me wrong when saying he can't find the basket.

Record: 25-41

Sacramento Kings

I am tempted to predict the Kings will go 66-0. After all, they have Jimmer Fredette on the roster. Maybe Tyreke Evans and DeMarcus Cousins won't mind if Jimmer shoots 20 times per game. I really like the J.J. Hickson trade and perhaps I just don't understand why the Cavs gave up on him, even if they got Casspi in return. Hickson seems like a guy who would be helpful in the Cavs rebuilding effort. I can't decide if the Kings are on the right track or have good players that won't win games together. Cousins, Hayes, Hickson and Jason Thompson as the backup is a pretty good frontline, as if Evans, Thornton, and Fredette. It may sound silly, but that's a lot of talent, but also a lot of guys who want to prove what kind of statistics they can put up. I question how well the team will gel. The Kings will be interesting, but if only interesting won more games.

Record: 32-34

Southwest Division

San Antonio Spurs

Much like the Celtics, the Spurs have an older core of players they rely upon. I feel differently about the Spurs than I do the Celtics though. I think the Spurs have younger players they can use to take minutes off the legs of Duncan, Parker, and Ginobili. James Anderson (who I didn't like coming out of Oklahoma State and I may end up being wrong about him), Tiago Splitter, and T.J. Ford will be able to effectively limit some of the minutes Duncan, Parker, and Ginobili have to play. I liked Splitter when the Spurs drafted him 20 years ago (or it seems like that) and if Richard Jefferson ever figures out how to be a quality scorer again then it will allow Kawhi Leonard to work his way into the Spurs offense. I think the Spurs have one more year left in them. What bails them out this year is they have put a good team around Duncan, Ginobili, Parker that won't be terrible on the court when giving those three guys a rest.

Record: 48-18

Dallas Mavericks

The Mavericks never had a problem scoring and it was defense that led them to the NBA Title last year. It hurts to lose Tyson Chandler and I don't believe Brendan Haywood will be able to provide the defense Chandler was able to provide. I'm afraid the Mavericks are back to being that really good team that can't win a tough playoff series. Of course, I predicted they would lose the Blazers in the first round and they ended up winning the NBA Title. So what do I know? I am also concerned about the post-NBA Title/lockout celebrating the Mavs have been doing. It sounds stupid, but Dirk admits he isn't in playing shape quite yet, so I can't help but wonder if he is the only Maverick not in playing shape quite yet. Lamar Odom was a great addition for a relatively cheap price, but this isn't a NBA Finals-type team without a better defensive center. Plus, the Mavericks now have Vince Carter on the roster, so that's pretty much the kiss of death in my mind.

Record: 44-22

Memphis Grizzlies

The Grizzlies are the "it" team this year because of their run last year in the NBA playoffs. I don't know if I really trust Mike Conley Jr. to be the starting point guard he needs to be. Maybe last year was his breakout year and I am wrong. He is only 24 years old after all. Otherwise, some people may not realize it, but Marc Gasol actually took a step back last year from his 09-10 season. He really stepped it up in the playoffs, so perhaps that bodes well. I worry a bit about the bench, especially with Darrell Arthur out. I feel like Zach Randolph will need to step it up if the Grizzlies will succeed since they don't have as much height as I wish they had. I think they are a playoff team, but I still don't know if I trust them. How's that for hedging?

Record: 38-28

Houston Rockets

I feel bad for the Rockets. They were trying to long-term plan what the team would look like and David Stern stepped in and stopped the Paul trade, not allowing them to get Pau Gasol from the Lakers and clearing some cap space. Who really cares if the NBA prevents NBA teams from executing a long-term plan? No big deal, right? I hate Hasheem Thabust and Jordan Hill is only a step above Thabust. So the Rockets have no center. When I said the Mavericks needed a better defensive center and the Grizzlies had height issues, I meant that, but the Rockets are in worse shape. They no one I would trust to play center for more than 20 minutes per game. Luis Scola is better off at power forward. So I think the Rockets will have a much better chance once they surround their scorers with an actual center. I'm not sure Samuel Dalembert counts either, but he is a start.

Record: 30-36

New Orleans Hornets

I don't believe the Hornets will be as bad as anticipated. I still don't believe they will make the playoffs. I would have the Hornets in the playoffs if the Lakers-Rockets-Hornets trade went down, but I'm not confident enough at this point to predict a playoff spot for them. I can't figure out, outside of Eric Gordon, where points are going to come from on this team. When Trevor Ariza is the #2 scorer on your team, that's not a good sign. I like the height this team has and I like that Al-Farouq Aminu may get minutes to determine if he sucks or not. I just don't know how they will score, but at least it seems like they are on the right track. This season is all about deciding which players will be keepers and which will be moved to clear cap space for the future.

Record: 32-34

Playoff teams: Oklahoma City, Portland, Denver, Los Angeles Clippers, Los Angeles Lakers, San Antonio, Dallas, Memphis.

Western Conference Quarterfinals:

Oklahoma City over Memphis
San Antonio over Denver
Los Angeles Clippers over Los Angeles Lakers
Portland over Dallas

Western Conference Semifinals:

Oklahoma City over Portland
San Antonio over Los Angeles Clippers

Western Conference Finals:

Oklahoma City over San Antonio

NBA Finals:

Miami Heat over Oklahoma City

It's boring, I know. It is also how I feel. Feel free to call me stupid in the comments.

8 comments Who will Police the Police?

Or in this case, who will coach the coaches? Master of the haiku style enigmatic analysis, Charley Rosen is back for the 2009/10 NBA season. And once again, he assembles a collection of sentences with no real effort to make a cohesive whole and calls it an "article". Charley, unlike many other targets we have around here, does genuinely seem to have some knowledge of the sport he covers, and he can be enlightening, which may make his fuckups all the more irritating. Also, dude is majorly arrogant, basically ripping into sports figures with a ferocity you just don't see in sports journalism generally.


Look at that handsome bastard. The very definition of "angry old man". You kids get off his lawn! The kids these days with their crossovers and their compulsion to play the passing lanes and their rap music and baggy shorts...let's just do this.

Not all NBA coaches make the grade

It's universally acknowledged that the NBA is a players' league. Even so, because of the smaller rosters, NBA coaches can have a greater influence on their players than the coaches in MLB and the NFL.

Here, then, is a rundown on the comparative and ultimate value of each of the NBA's coaches.

comparative and ultimate! Two for one Rosen special. What is this supposed to mean? He actually doesn't compare any of these coaches to each other anyway. Does he grade on a curve? Is this a standardised grading system? Bottom of the Barrel demands to know Charley Rosen's totalisation methodology! (ugh, starting to get a bit Easterbrook-ey there...just shows you that a joke can go too far).

A-plus coaches

Phil Jackson (Lakers) is the best of the best. It's silly to suggest that his successes are totally due to having superstars on his teams. In truth, every NBA championship team — from Joe Fulks to Kobe, from George Mikan to Shaq, and so on — has featured at least one superstar player. Championship rings are never won by accident.

...so like...is anyone gonna tell him? I mean it's so obvious and so recent. And it's not like we haven't heard the point made by the media time and time again when talking about championship teams and building them. And I get his basic point and agree with it. Come on...someone. Don't make me be that guy, it's just embarrassing he'd not mention this. I mean he even expressly says "never". Fine. FINE.

Dicks.

Gregg Popovich (Spurs) demands discipline and attention to detail and gets players to eagerly buy into his belief system.

A coaches

Nate McMillan is in the process of carefully developing the young Blazers into his own image. That's why all of his players are diligent workers and take full responsibility for their performances.

dunno about you guys but I've never really had any opinion about the coaching skill and performance of Nate McMillan. I guess broadly I thought he was ok...but third best coach in the league is an incredible thing to say. I'm not even saying he's not justified in saying this, I just don't know...I wouldn't have thought so. Anyway, I guess he must have some great arguments to back this up and let us know exactly what's so great about Nate McMillan. When you put him above Sloan, Adelman, Brown, D'Antoni, et al I think people are gonna want a bit more than two sentences. So, lay it on me string bean.

Jerry Sloan (Jazz) always gets the most out of his players and refuses to make any compromises to do so.

or, like...not, I guess.

A-minus

Rick Adelman (Rockets) is an excellent tactician who has the flexibility to make any group of players succeed.

B-plus

Scott Brooks (Thunder) is a young coach who's growing along with his young players. He knows the game, and his enthusiasm is contagious.

I think Charley has misunderstood his job description. While, yes, you are employed by Fox Sports to give your opinions, you aren't supposed to only write your opinions. You're supposed to argue for them. Let me explain.

If I knew you had a daughter and said "how old is Linda?" and you said "27", then that's fine to just say. If you say "I think Nate McMillan is a great coach." It's really on you at that point to argue the point to me, the reader, in an effort to persuade me to agree with you, or even just give me some things to think about in relation to the topic. That's what makes sports jouralism (in principle anyway) fun to read. That's the point, in short, of sports journalism. Just saying what you feel with no actual basis is not fun to read. It's frustrating to me and lazy on your part.

The B's

Larry Brown (Bobcats) is doing an A-quality job in Charlotte and is an excellent teacher. But his documented history of lying, of egregious arrogance and of making excuses for his own failings result in his being docked a grade.

so, is this about how good a coach they are, or the quality of person you believe they are? Because they aren't the same thing Charley, if he's an A grade coach, then give him an A. You gave me the impression this was about coaching, and considering all these gentleman are NBA coaches, I thought I was pretty safe thinking it was about coaching but, apparently not.

Vinny Del Negro (Bulls) did a terrific job in his rookie year in Chicago. He utilized his available personnel perfectly and coaxed his players to perform at their best at the right time. What does he do for an encore?

oh Charley! Dear oh dear! Time for some quotes, come walk with me down memory lane of last season

Del Negro: You always want to try and keep a timeout, but you always want to try to keep yourself in the game. There's no need to save your timeouts if you're down 15 points, or 10, or 12. At certain times, when they're making runs like that, and we get the ball with 20 seconds to go in the game and we're down two, I want to make sure we get a good shot and have an opportunity to tie. Because if we don't execute well and set something up--especially with a young team--then they're shooting free throws and the game's probably over.

So I would have liked to have had one at the end, but sometimes you can keep them and sometimes you have to use them to stay in the game.

genius at work. From The Chicago Tribune;

In their current season-long five-game losing streak, the Bulls have been outscored by a combined 21 points in the fourth quarter.

That’s as good a place as any to start the discussion on the team’s woes, which include too many turnovers, poor defense and the inability to execute even the most basic of plays down the stretch.

“Anyone who is watching us knows we’re playing harder and with a lot of spirit and effort,” forward Luol Deng said. “We just have to play smarter.”

The Bulls’ final possession of regulation on Sunday in Minnesota looked like it could appear in a high school coach’s film session on how not to run a play. With the game tied and 23.9 seconds left, Derrick Rose dribbled down almost the entire clock as if waiting for a screen.

Coach Vinny Del Negro said afterward that the play, such as it was, didn’t call for a screen. Instead, Rose was supposed to dribble right as Ben Gordon flared left, trying to create space and confusion from the defense.

Rose instead dribbled left, right into Gordon, and had to force an off-balance shot with Sebastian Telfair and Randy Foye guarding him.

like a well oiled, but horribly malfunctioning machine. What about you, Blog-A-Bull?

Rose and Del Negro weren't quite on the same page when it came to what can be done better in last-second shot opportunities.

"Today was really like the first day when we did a lot of situations like that (in practice)," Rose said.

Countered Del Negro: "We work on them all the time, almost every practice. But it was good to scrimmage and go through some things."

In fairness, we are talking 'bout practice man. I mean how silly is that? We in here talking 'bout practice. What about Vinny and discipline?

I’m Italian, I like to argue. That’s how I grew up,” Del Negro said. “It doesn’t bother me. So whatever helps to get this team going, whatever comments are made, everybody knows where to find me. … Everybody says, ’What’s going on?’ Nothing’s going on, we have to try to win. That’s what I focus on.”

Asked directly if he thought Gordon’s reaction, which included an expletive, was disrespectful, Del Negro said it was not.

“No, because I argue with everybody,” Del Negro said. “It’s funny to me, it really is. … I love that guys show passion, show some fight and some grit. That’s why it’s pro basketball. It’s easy to play, it’s hard to win. So when guys show passion and get aggravated, take it out on the other team.

that was after Gordon cursed him out last season. I think if you curse Jerry Sloan out, you wake up with a horse's head next to you. But is this really disrespect? Derrick Rose, do you have some insight?

"I know a lot of us do," Rose said. "The people who are not, coaches are trying to get to them and talk to them and have meetings with them. I'm talking about during the games. Like, following game plans. I'm not saying players are being rebellious or doing it their way. It's just miscommunication on the court."

Wow...ok. On and on it goes. According to Rosen, this is the bio of the eighth best coach in basketball. Wow.

Doc Rivers (Celtics) is a consummate con man, but he lets his great players be great.

I would have thought calling someone a fraud in mass media would be grounds for slander. Maybe Fox Sports legal team is just light years ahead of me, but even I draw the line at outright character assassination.

Paul Westphal (Kings) has never coached a loser during his four full seasons in the command seat. His career record stands at 242-114, a mark which is sure to take a big hit in Sacramento.

he hasn't coached a single game in the NBA since 2000 and he's the tenth best coach in the league? Yikes.

B-minus

Rick Carlisle (Mavericks) is an excellent Xs and Os man but still struggles to freely communicate with his players and with the media.

Flip Saunders (Wizards) has an oversized playbook and is the master of the two-man baseline zones. He also has much more influence over young players than with hardened veterans.

true of virtually every coach in the league when it comes to the comments about Flip. Agan, this isn't analysis, just stating stuff that he feels to be self evidently true.

Byron Scott (Hornets) depends too much on his point guards and needs to diversify his offense.

we're down to one sentence per coach - lightning round!

Erik Spoelstra keeps a low profile, which is precisely what has proved necessary for the Heat to overachieve.

so why is he a B-minus? You are basically saying he does nothing and thats a good thing. This is weird.

Mike Woodson has managed to keep the immature Hawklings steadily moving forward without going crazy. But the biggest test of his sanity will come this season when Atlanta must finally reach its potential, or else start all over.

I'm not saying you need to get down on your knees and praise the Lord for the existence of Mike Woodson but here's the Atlanta progression;

2004-2005 (year one): 13-69, last in East, last in NBA
2005-2006: 26-56, T-14th in East, T-28th in NBA
2006-2007: 30-52, 13th in East, 27th in NBA
2007-2008: 37-45 (playoffs), 8th in East, 19th in NBA
2008-2009: 47-35 (playoffs), 4th in East, 12th in NBA

their best players are Joe Johnson (28), Josh Smith (23) and Al Horford (23). Why the HELL would you blow this team up? They are babies! Future, ownership aside, quite bright in Atlanta, probably the most likely team of the "rest" in the NBA to win it all. They won a playoff series. They opened 21-10 last year. This is rubbish, Woodson is a bit anonymous and nothing special as a coach, but his team has improved every year, without fail, he's done a good job with what looked to be a lost cause. There, I've given some decent supporting evidence, Charley, care to do the same? Pretty please?

C-plus

Lawrence Frank (Nets) is extremely likeable and is never outworked, two characteristics that earn his players' respect. However, he lacks charisma and is also burdened by a dysfunctional roster.

so let me get this one straight. He's got the players respect, and works hard - tick. But, working against him is that he doesn't give have a way with the ladies and he doesn't have the players required to be good. Both of which have nothing to do whatsoever with his coaching skill. I don't see why I should be required to view the arguments on your behalf because you are unwilling or unable to do so. Give me your job.

Eddie Jordan (Sixers) is personable and knowledgeable, but his game plan is too inexact.

six words. That's the extent of the evaluation. And they're a bad six words too. What the hell is an "inexact" gameplan?

George Karl's (Nuggets) arrogance is humungous. Moreover, he has no basic philosophy, is incapable of inspiring his players and of gaining their trust.

...did ok last playoffs.

Kurt Rambis (Timberwolves) might be too cynical to have sufficient patience with young players. Plus, he's handicapped by also having to deal with a hands-on, loony-tunes owner.

"might be! I have no idea man. Just, you know, he might be cynical. Let's say he is. Also, someone else is a dick, so...he is bad due to that for some reason. I need a nap."

Scott Skiles is demanding and overbearingly acerbic but still manages to ratchet up his players' game-to-game intensity. Unless the Bucks start winning, however, he will wear them out before the All-Star break.

Stan Van Gundy (Magic) regularly over-coaches his team, perhaps in some subliminal competition with his brother.

I'm a Stan van Gundy fan personally, I don't think he's perfect, but they were the biggest surprise of the playoffs, give the man a little credit please.

The gentlemen's C's

Mike D'Antoni (Knicks) has everything going for him except a winning game plan.

.608 lifetime. By the way, the last two men are the winningest active coaches by percentage in the Eastern Conference right now. You're welcome.

Jim O'Brien is steady, rational and principled. Too bad the Pacers are one of the least athletic teams in the league.

listen very, very, carefully. THAT'S NOT RELATED TO COACHING.

Jay Triano (Raptors) is a perfect match in Toronto — a mediocre coach for a mediocre team.

The C-minus guys

Mike Brown's (Cavaliers) faulty offense and inability to make adjustments were exposed by the Magic.

Mike Brown is terrible, further proof that NBA awards are a joke.

Mike Dunleavy (Clippers) is tight-minded and perpetually suspicious, which explains why he has such little impact on his players' attitudes.

Alvin Gentry (Suns) has a lifetime record of 162-205 and is resurrecting the running game in Phoenix mostly to please Steve Nash and Amare Stoudemire. None of these factors promise any degree of success, but Gentry is an agreeable get-along type of guy.

The D-man

Don Nelson (Warriors) has the most colossal ego among his peers. The mind games he plays are designed to keep his players perpetually insecure and to preserve his power.

meow. Go and have a gay little twitter war about it.

6 comments Bill Simmons Forces Me to Follow His Every Step

NBA Preview!

10 minutes after I post my TMQ analysis, Bill Simmons puts out an NBA preview, so of course I immediately read it and though it was not horrible, it was still worthy of a mention. I much prefer his chats, where you get his unfiltered opinion. It is easier to mock him.

If the 2008-09 NBA season were a TV character, it would definitely be Joan Holloway from "Mad Men."

He started the column off with a comparison to something non NBA related to describe the NBA. If Bill Simmons were a columnist he would be the type that takes up 100 words to write something he could write in 20 words.

In 1962, you could take Joan on a date to a diner, and she would order a patty melt, onion rings and a vanilla malt and finish off everything with a smile on her face.

Bill would never be able to take Joan on a date to a diner, she would reject him because he would still be considered lame because he quotes Casablanca and tells everyone about how fast he can drive his car down the strip...but no one has ever seen this. Bill would never be able to pull Joan either, even for one date, Bill would only get Peggy Olson, and trust me, that is not a compliment.

Call me crazy, but I liked the old days a little more.

No shit? You mean the fact you quote 20 year old movies and make the same jokes over and over again, means you like the old days better? If were a movie character I would be Bruce Willis from The Sixth Sense, stepping back realizing something I truly knew, but refused to acknowledge.

People were gaping at her the same way everyone would stare at a UFO if it just randomly landed on the stage. What's wrong with curves? What's wrong with a few female celebs defying the unwritten rule that it's much more appealing to men if they whittle themselves down to an unnatural weight like they're training to fight Brian Chute? Nothing against Courteney Cox, but I walked by her in Hollywood last year, and she was built like a manhole cover. It was genuinely depressing. I miss "Dancing in the Dark" Courteney Cox. You could have ordered her a milkshake or a Guinness without worrying about having it thrown back in your face. And while we're here, if I ever see Lindsay Lohan in person, I just might sob Nancy Kerrigan-style and start screaming, "Why????? Why???????"

If you don't believe now that the Sports Gal is writing portions of Bill's columns, then you are either naive or super naive.

This sounds like a Sports Gal rant if I have ever read one. If not, Bill can never knock the NBA for being the "No Balls Association."

Parity might work for the NFL, but for the NBA's purposes, we're always better off as fans when there are nine or 10 teams that fall somewhere among "wildly entertaining," "very good" and "potentially excellent."

Especially when the Celtics are one of them right Bill? Why is it that teams who are in larger markets always think it is better if there is little parity? If Green Bay was located in New York, we would get 1,000 annual columns about how dedicated and adoring their fans are. Alas, all we get are mentions every once in a while.

After 15 grueling years, we're back to having some curves again.

What he means by this is because his favorite team is good again, the league is obviously in a boom with popularity increasing and the quality of play increasing tremendously as well. All caused by the Celtics winning the championship...and Bill was there to see it. Everything Bill likes is awesome and he has experienced everything great in the world firsthand. Bill's ego has curves.
You may ask yourself, wasn't the league in a boom in the mid to late 90's when the Bulls were winning titles and the league was very popular? How about when the Lakers were winning three straight titles and two of the greatest players ever were playing on the same team? The answer is no. Larry Bird retired 15 years ago and the league has been in a decline since. I am not even sure the league counts any of the titles that Michael Jordan, Hakeem, Shaq, and Kobe have won due to Larry Bird not being around.

Maybe this isn't a good thing if you root for Memphis, New Jersey, Sacramento, Minnesota, Golden State, Charlotte, Milwaukee or the City That Shall Not Be Named, but everywhere else?

Those cities fucking suck so who really gives a shit if they field good teams? Nobody cares, that is the answer. Fuck Milwaukee says Bill Simmons, they did not give him that GM position. Even though, they do have a good history with Lew Alcindor starting his career there and Charlotte once sold out 358 consecutive games. They all suck.

Bill thinks the league would be so much better if there was an "A" League, filled with the Celtics and other older teams and a "B" league filled with teams that he knows nothing about because they are not important enough to warrant a mention.

Why do you think the league was in such good shape from 1984 through 1993?

Because Larry Bird played for the Celtics and the Celtics were a good team, that is why.

(Important note: If the Knicks land Ricky Rubio two years from now, the previous paragraph becomes moot and the Bill Walsh/Mike D. scenario immediately goes back into play. Hey, did the fact that I nearly set up a Google alert for Rubio last week make me a fan or a stalker? Since I held off, I say I'm still a fan. Although that might change when I move to whichever city drafts him. OK, I'm a semi-stalker.)

Somewhere Chad Ford is chuckling to himself welcoming Bill to the dark side and probably wondering, like I am, if Bill has ever seen Ricky Rubio play. The answer? No, because Rubio does not play for the Celtics nor in Los Angeles, but Bill does have a friend who is in upper management with DKV Joventut who says Rubio is going to be an incredible player and his friend also has some really funny stories that Bill could relay to Jimmy Kimmel, if Jimmy will hire him back.

Also, Rubio is eligible to play in the NBA this upcoming year, so Bill may not have to wait two years for this to happen. Don't tell him that though, I can't wait to see him change two years to one year without a mention of how he was wrong.

Remember how excited we were when the NBA briefly shed the "No Balls Association" tag this past February and Dallas (Jason Kidd) and Phoenix (Shaq) swung for the fences?

You mean how excited YOU were that teams finally took your advice and showed some guts and made tough trades after years of writing columns about how more teams should swing for the fences. Then it failed and you are predicting both teams are not going to have championship caliber teams for the foreseeable future, basically hopping off the bandwagon of this idea so it doesn't stick to you? Isn't it ironic that the one idea Bill has lauded for years, has failed miserably? It is not ironic, it shows how much Bill really, really knows about his favorite sport.

Bill Simmons for Bucks GM? Remember this? How much fun would that have been when he has ideas like this?

Well, it didn't work -- the Kidd gamble was doomed from the start, and the Shaq gamble was nullified when Phoenix suffered a colossal Stomach Punch loss in Game 1 of the Spurs series (and by the way, the Suns choked that game away, so I'm not absolving them).

Why was the Kidd gamble doomed from the start? Because it would ruin your half ass No Balls Association theory? I also doubt that Phoenix's gamble was nullified by some magical Stomach Punch theory that you made up. Maybe if you make up some more fake names for things that occurred it won't reflect on the truth that both gambles did not work out because they were not a good idea to begin with.

"Will Oden ever be the guy we thought he would be?" and "Isn't it a bad sign that a 20-year-old franchise center looks and runs like he's 37?"

You don't know how sick it makes me that Oden got hurt last night and Bill may end up being right about Oden being injury prone. I just threw up.

The Cavs are desperate. The LeBron Clock is ticking. I threw out the Michael Redd/Dan Gadzuric for Wally/Sasha Pavlovic possibility in Friday's column.

Milwaukee, consider yourself being really lucky to save yourself from Bill Simmons as your GM. Not only would you have ended up with Wally and Sasha Pavlovic to sit the bench behind Richard Jefferson and Joe Alexander but you get to lose your best player also!

As far as the Cavaliers are concerned with this ingenius trade can't you just see LeBron, Michael Redd, Daniel Gibson, Varejao, and Mo Williams hanging out on the perimeter in the last five minutes of a game, while LeBron gets severly injured attempting to drive to the basket? Granted, this is currently happening now, but it would even be more fun to see Redd a part of it. Can't we all just accept the fact LeBron is leaving Cleveland in 2010?

I would love to see Michael Redd, who requires 45 shots a game, play with LeBron. It would be like a game of H-O-R-S-E except the players are on the same team.

You want a sleeper contender in the East? Check out the goofy team Pat Riley slapped together in Miami. Could a healthy Dwyane Wade win 40 games by himself? Hell, yeah! He's Dwyane Wade! Then you have Michael Beasley (a guaranteed 18 and 8), Shawn Marion (either what he gives them or what they get when they deal him), Udonis Haslem (a playoff-proven banger) … and what if they get something from Shaun Livingston?

If Bill is able to make blanket statements about who "everyone" think is going to be good this year, then I will too. I think the Miami Heat have a 1996-1997 San Antonio Spurs thing going for them. They have a great nucleus of players who can contribute, one certified All Star who had a down year, and now get a top pick in the draft. I think the Heat are the team to watch in the Heat and it would not shock me if they had 55 wins this year. I am not kidding, I really think they could pull this off as long as Michael Beasley doesn't spray paint someone's car or do something else stupid like put Pat Riley in a headlock and mess up his hair.

So Bill's sleeper is really not a huge sleeper in my world.

What is a sunk cost? In financial terms, it's a lost cause -- you're paying for something that has lost its value to you.

I am not kidding, he is about to tell us what a sunk cost is and give us an economic lesson.

I will explain it to you in Bill's terms a little better. A sunk cost is like ESPN signing Bill Simmons for 4 years, realizing he is not progressing as a writer and he has more aspirations of Hollywood, and will never be able to write a decent personal interest story because he is so focused on himself. They want someone who can do this, so they hire Rick Reilly, but they already have Bill Simmons, so they piss off Bill Simmons constantly knowing he won't leave and they have to pay him the rest of the contract he signed. He is a sunk cost.

10. You will regret not fully appreciating Cleveland for swiping Mo Williams from Milwaukee.

Now here's a trade that didn't get enough attention: Cleveland's swipe of Mo Williams from Milwaukee.

That trade would never have happened if Bill Simmons was GM of the Bucks. He would have tried to organize a 4 team 14 player trade that was overly complicated, but he wanted to make it to prove he understands basketball. He would be trying to get a good team together to sign Kevin Durant and draft Ricky Rubio in two years. Unfortunately there is a restraining order against Bill Simmons by Kevin Durant and Bill will not be able to draft Rubio in two years because he entered the draft in 2009.

I think everyone thinks they could be an NBA GM. It seems so easy, get good players, don't sign old and useless players.

11. With Isiah finally gone from the Knicks, Charlotte will assume the mantle as the most frustrated franchise in the NBA.

This depresses me. Charlotte used to be NBA crazy. Thanks George Shinn. I hope when you are burning in Hell and trying to fondle Satan's secretary, someone kicks you in your balls.

I blame a lot of the problems this team has on the need to get a crowd in to watch ex- North Carolina Tar Heels play. The franchise has struggled in its beginning and is having problems drawing crowds. They started drafting ex-Tar Heels who are clearly not going to make it in the NBA (paging Sean May) and decide this is not enough. So they give Michael Jordan, the worst GM not named Isiah Thomas, a high end position and brings in Larry Brown to coach a young team, which Larry Brown hates to coach, and hope that tons of Tar Heel fans come to watch the games. It's not happening and Charlotte is going to lose their second franchise in 10 years because David Stern did not have enough balls to stand up to George Shinn.

The last NBA champ that defended its crown with vigor was the '97 Bulls. They loved being "The Champs."

How do you measure vigor, you may be asking yourself? With the Vigorosity Scale 3000! It measures the vigorosity a team defends its championship with. The '97 Bulls were a 76 on a scale of 1 to 100. This year the Celtics are going to be a 97, as predicted by Basketball Prospectus, defeating by an enormous amount the Spurs annual average vigorosity rating of 13.

The Lakers that won three straight at the beginning of the decade actually scored a 98, but do not count because that would ruin Bill's fake point. Unless he forgot about them in his eagerness to talk about the Celtics, which is also likely.

Either they were saving their legs for the playoffs (the '04 and '08 Spurs); they were overly arrogant and/or battling the usual array of demons that come after winning the title (the Kobe-Shaq teams, the '05 Pistons); or they were battling injuries/age/complacency (the '99 Bulls, '01 Spurs and '07 Heat).

The Kobe-Shaq won three straight NBA Titles, losing only three games in those three Finals! Three straight championships and none of them were competitive NBA Finals. Bill just ignores them because they had been "battling demons." I have to say regardless of the "demons" they definitely defended their title twice with great vigor. They did score a 98 on the Vigorosity Scale two years in a row.

Bill has an insatiable need to make the Boston Celtics special and will literally just make shit up to get to that point.

And then there's this: No team since Magic's last two Lakers teams has enjoyed a title more than last year's Celtics.

This has nothing to do with the NBA and also will have nothing to do with how they defend their title. Absolutely nothing.

I don't think the Celtics will win a second straight title, but they will kill themselves trying. And that's really all you can ask for.

I hate to take a piss in Bill's cereal but if they don't win the NBA Title this year, that won't count as having defended the title at all. They will be just like the every other team who won one NBA Title and then crapped out the next year. Sure they may play hard to defend it, but that really means absolutely nothing.

Important note: My dad hated the move. Hated it.

Not an important note: Anything Bill's father thinks.

"The whole point is to win a title," Dad kept saying. "I don't care about 2012. I might not be around in 2012! I care about 2009. We would have repeated with Posey. Instead, I have to watch Tony Allen for two more years? Put this in your column: We should have re-signed James Posey. Huge mistake. These guys won a title and decided they were geniuses -- it's just like what happened with the Red Sox."

Clearly idiocy runs in the family. First, J.S. had described incredibly well how James Posey is worth 11 wins this year, so the Celtics should have re-signed him. I mean come on, he is the glue to the team, it's not like you can just sign somebody before the season and get that type of production...you know, even though that is exactly what the Celtics did last year with Posey. He is a one of a kind player.

Also, what is with the Red Sox bashing by Bill's papa? The Red Sox management have completely set that team up to be in contention for the next five years. They did not decide they were geniuses, they just made smart short term moves that will benefit them in the long term and accumulated draft picks while making smart draft choices along the way. Apparently Bill's papa does not stick to the grace period after a championship where you can not whine about a team.

Ouch. I agree with Dad on one thing: The Celts probably would have repeated with Posey.

No, they would have won 11 more games with him, he would have quit basketball, found Osama Bin Laden in late July, and finally revealed himself to be Christ in early October. That is what would have happened if they had resigned Posey. Stupid move.

So let's say the Lakers win the title this year. If you're Kobe, and you have nothing left to prove, and your NBA odometer is running close to 1,100 games ... why not make a Pele-like jump overseas for twice as much money and 10 times the attention and become a global superduperstar?

I can't believe Bill really thinks Kobe would somehow become more popular playing outside of the United States. America is so egotistical we ignore any person who plays overseas until they play over here. So by jumping to Europe Kobe pretty much gives a big "F you" to American basketball and becomes an afterthought over here. Sure he may be big in Europe, but this will in no way improve his chances to be known as the best basketball player ever, which is his overall goal. I don't see him doing it.

F. Chad Ford watching a Nets-Grizzlies game this winter, seeing Yi Jianlian and Darko Milicic awkwardly bouncing off one another like bumper cars in an amusement park for a few minutes, then sadly making himself a pina colada in a giant half-coconut.

I am sorry chairman of the Ricky Rubio Fan Club, what did you say?

J. The ongoing "I still can't believe I talked myself into a head coaching job" look on Vinny Del Negro's face. Vinny, we can't believe it either.

I remember Vinny playing for NC State and me making fun of the way he shot foul shots. Whether it translates correctly or not, I still like calling him Vinny of the Black.

I am in love with Eric Gordon's jump shot. I want to marry it. I want to have kids with it. I will go to at least one practice or shootaround this year just to see him hoist 200 of them. And by the way, the kid is going to be great -- he's bigger than I thought, and when he drives to the lane, defenders just bounce off him. He will end up being the third-best guy in that draft.

Bill Simmons: If Boston had not won the championship last year there is a good chance I would have used a Boston Bruin-esque excuse to become a LA Clippers fan.

If Gordon becomes a perennial All Star I bet Bill erases his entire archive of Celtic columns and starts talking about how he can switch teams because the Celtics made moves he did not agree with that hurt the team. Look for this in 2011.

20. We will see LeBron win the Finals MVP as well.

My pick: Cleveland over New Orleans in the 2009 Finals. You will remember it as the first LeBron/CP3 Finals some day, a seminal moment in the league's history, the season when a new generation of stars symbolically moved the previous regime out of the way.

You know he does not believe this. He thinks the Celtics are going to repeat, he just doesn't want to jinx them. Even though he does not believe in that type of thing of course.

The NBA ... where rejuvenation happens.

ESPN...where only shit like Bill Simmons' gets printed and becomes popular because he has the co-dependent relationship with the 18-25 crowd that makes them both feel relevant.

1 comments Charley Rosen's Editor Just Doesn't Give a Fuck

Was talking with my room mate yesterday about the deplorable standard of (non sporting) journalism. You know, if journalists are to have one certifiable skill, it should be knowing a wide variety of methods for telling a story, and being able to pick the right method for any given situation. Too often it seems, large scale stories are told through a very small lens and forced into a "personal story" when it is entirely inappropriate, this was the general nature of our discussion. Whatever about the bias or poor research of a jounalistic piece, there really is no excuse for it to be sloppy stylistically.

Which brings us to Charley Rosen, who has been writing previews for each division in the NBA. Most of the time when we post here it is usually to expose poor research, absurd premises, bizarre obsessions, whatever. Rarely is there a stylistic critique, but ultimately, the site is about showing up bad journalism, and although Rosen's positions are (usually) reasonable, if debatable, these previews strike me as just a little self absorbed. Let's take a look.

Southwest is loaded with title contenders

Dallas Mavericks
New-old coach, same old players. The most significant factor, though, is Jason Kidd being able to participate in a training camp, thereby becoming fully integrated into the Mavs' offense. Make no mistake, it's J-Kidd who's the key player here. For sure, he's lost a few steps, which means that he'll have trouble defending all of the NBA's quick-footed point guards and he'll also have a hard time getting to the basket. Even so, his legendary unselfishness and competitive spirit will infuse some courage and vitality into this chronically underachieving squad.

I have to say, if he plays 35 games it will be a minor miracle. Not mentioning this at all is a bit ridiculous, he has the knees of an eight five year old. Basically he can't defend - at all. He can't shoot - at all. He can't penetrate - at all. He can now pass, and we will see how well he can do that playing 25 minutes a night in 40% of games with no other threat and team mates who do not play well off the ball.

Colour me sceptical.

Erick Dampier and DeSagana Diop provide the muscle in the middle.

Dirk Nowitzki can fill up a stat sheet but still must prove he can deliver in the clutch.
Brandon Bass was a revelation last season but generally performed much more effectively against the league's weaker teams than he did against the powerhouse ball clubs.

this is what I'm getting at. It's like the guy is reading tea leaves, like he has his head under some magic sheet and is transcribing this to a stenographer, furiously recording these prophecies. To summerise Dirk Nowitzki's effect on a game as "can fill up a stat sheet but still must prove he can deliver in the clutch", after the 2006 season, strikes me as a ridiculously superficial analysis.

Jason Terry is a point-machine when he goes right, is useless on defense and is another disappointing end-game player.

he's worth about a thousand Kidd's.

After a disastrous offseason, there's no way to anticipate what Josh Howard will bring to the table. The taunting of hostile fans will either inspire him or deflate him.
Jerry Stackhouse is just about finished, but a sudden maturation of the spectacularly talented Gerald Green could easily make Stackhouse irrelevant.
When all of his body parts are working, Devean George is the team's only top-notch wing-defender.

there you have it, a healthy Devean George and Jason Kidd and the sky is the limit. Give me a break, and this is a harsh assessment of Howard as a defensive presence, extremely harsh. Nothing in my years watching George makes me believe he is better on his man than Howard. Also, Gerald Green endorsement? It's so impossible to pick who Rosen will like or not, he's basically Darius Miles 2.0 and he fucking hates Miles.

Houston Rockets

The presence of Ron Artest makes the Rockets' extraordinary defense even better. Houston also has an optimum blend of quickness and size, of finesse and power. But there are some problematic aspects that must be resolved for Houston to challenge the Lakers.
Yao Ming absolutely must stay healthy.
Tracy McGrady must get tougher.
Dikembe Mutombo must undergo the most difficult of all possible surgeries, a birth-certificate replacement.

what is with this one sentence per paragraph thing? It's like a haiku. Even Easterbrook has ditched the "haiku as analysis" thing.

While Luis Scola and Chuck Hayes are good at what they do, they lack a requisite amount of athleticism. That's why Ron-Ron will frequently play power forward in end-game situations with the rock-solid and grossly underrated Shane Battier manning the small-forward slot.

Shane Battier's entire life can be summed up thusly - everyone, everyone said I was underrated. Seriously, how many times have you read "Shane Battier is underrated"? Thirty times? Forty? David Eckstein, Shane Battier, who would be your football pick people? Bob Sanders had this mantle for a while, people ridiculously thinking he was worth like eighty rushing yards a game. This whole "piggyback" analysis has to stop.

Shane Battier is the new Josh Howard who was the new Ben Wallace.

At the point, Rafer Alston is good but not nearly as good as he thinks he is. It's therefore imperative that he willingly sublimates his point-making ambitions and concentrates on running the offense.

Artest absolutely must behave himself on the court, in the real world and in the locker room. Keeping a low profile will be difficult for Artest, but with Yao's background of collective-culture, T-Mac's small-town mindset and Alston's overbearing inner-city chops, Ron-Ron must find a way to peacefully co-exist.

also - win at basketball.

Other important bench-men include Aaron Brooks, a mercurial and mistake-prone back-up to Alston, and Brent Barry, who can knock down 3-pointers and do little else.
Indeed, it's the lack of scorers off the bench that constitute the major flaw in Houston's game plan.

the Great Rosen has spoken! Begone!

New Orleans Hornets
These guys are ready to rock the league.

Chris Paul is the most dominating point guard extant. This is because of his phenomenal skills, but also because he's the jet-speed motor of virtually all of the Hornets' offensive sets. True, he isn't quite as effective when he's pushed left and can be overpowered on defense — and while his perimeter shooting is improving, it's still erratic — but CP3 rules.

ready to rock the league? They went to the Western Conference Finals? How can they possibly shock anyone? Way to pick a sleeper Charley!

Mike James fills in for Paul and is a natural shooting guard who's still learning how to run an offense.

David West is a scoring and rebounding machine. Julian Wright is West's wildly talented sub.

I feel like Rosen is literally looking into a crystal ball here.

Peja Stojakovic is a streak shooter from the outskirts. Period.

Mo Peterson is another long-range bomber and an adequate role player.
And it's the addition of James Posey's tough defense, clutch shooting and versatility that could easily push the Hornets over the top.

eleven wins I hear.

What are the team's weaknesses?

Peja's soft defense. No other low-post scorer besides West. James' limitations. No dependable backups in the frontcourt.

these are just statements. No reasoning, it's like a logical formula or something, it's so weird to be a reader in Charley Rosen's world.

"Honey, our sex life is stalling, what do you think is the problem?"
"Boredom. Mistress. Impotence. Good night."

San Antonio Spurs

Despite the high quality of their divisional rivals, the Spurs' biggest enemy is Father Time.
Tony Parker is still young, spry and at the top of his game. No problems there. But his primary backup, Jacque Vaughn, will be 34 in February.
Michael Finley will be 37 before the season is over. Bruce Bowen is 37, and Kurt Thomas is 38. Even Tim Duncan is 32.

WHY IS THIS THREE PARAGRAPHS?

Matt Bonner is an excellent shooter with great range, so he should be able to put more points on the board than the departed Robert Horry. But Bonner's lateral movement is certainly far from being excellent, so his defense is questionable.

if you have to mention Matt Bonner in a team's preview, all signs point to a dissapointing year.

And on it goes, in Tarzan "me Tarzan, you Jane" like elegance. Can Rosen just not write? I mean there are some fair points in there and as a regular reader of Rosen I can profess that he genuinely knows a reasonable amount about the inner workings of a game of basketball, even if he approaches the game purely as "x's and o's" and chemistry with zero in between. It's just that he shouldn't be anywhere near a keyboard. Like an actual writer needs to get between his thoughts and what's read on the page. I mean Jesus, it has all the readability of a shopping list.

0 comments Hawks Confident Due to Unrelated Success

Sometimes you don't even know when that special article will come, you're reading through an insipid, but coherant piece, and then some weird sentence will strike you and you'll go "that's it, gotta write about this, make fun of it and temporarily lift my dangerously low self esteem albeit temporarily". But then there are times when from the very get go, you know the stupid is very much in the black, and it's only likely to go one way when you start from a ridiculous premise.
This is one such occasion, from Sergio Gonzalez.

A Giant Ray of Hope in Atlanta

I don't know why. Their ownership status has been the worst in American professional sport, making their ability to land free agents all but negligible. My God, they got outbid by a Greek team. The first significant, American born NBA player to leave for Europe. They are pioneering a whole new way to fail. Anyway, let's give Sergio a chance, he's off to a rocky start.

The 2007 New York Giants. The 2008 Tampa Bay Rays. The 2008 Atlanta Hawks. What do these three teams have in common?

Literally nothing, is the answer btw.

"I think that some of the similarities (in) are the chemistry," Hawks center Al Horford said before getting ready for a game in Phoenix last week, part of his second preseason in the NBA. The Hawks are looking to become the next team in a continuing trend of overachievers across the major sports.

I know it's always occupied a dubious place in sports analysis, but "chemistry" really has become the "maverick" of sports coverage. It's relevant, ok, I grant you, especially in basketball, but it wasn't some chemlab, secret formula voodoo that caused these teams to win. Tampa? Young, developing pitching. Giants? Luck and a great Superbowl matchup. I mean, these aren't comprehensive answers, I grant you, but they barely receive a mention, it's all about the steamy love affairs in the locker rooms apparently.

The Giants surprised everyone but themselves last February, winning a Super Bowl nobody picked them to come even close to winning in the preseason. They were given a 70-1 chance by Las Vegas last summer. The Rays were given 100-1 odds to win the World Series this spring. Vegas doesn't give teams longer odds than that in baseball. Five more wins and they would pull off the longest of long shots.

Banded together by an "us against the world" approach, the Giants surged through the playoffs and defeated an undefeated Patriots team that thought it would win simply by showing up. And the Rays, sporting mohawks, stylish spectacles and curious math skills (9=8???) are making their run through October look as easy as it used to be to beat up on, well, the Tampa Bay Devil Rays.

good argument alright, the Hawks will have a great season due to the performance of their obvious alter-ego's in football and baseball.

Horford says his Hawks...

oh yeah, the Hawks! That's right. That's what I was talking about.

seem to be building that kind of a bond. And don't discount him as being a naïve 22-year-old. He knows what he's talking about. He was a vital part of the Florida Gators team that made an unexpected run in the 2006 NCAA tournament with a young bunch that figured out a way to win, slightly ahead of schedule -- and then repeated in 2007.

so, in summary - New York Giants in 2007 - winners. Tampa Bay Devil Rays in 2008 - winners. Florida Gators in 2006 - winners. I mean, if you don't think, based on this mountain of evidence, that the Hawks will be serious contenders in 2009? Well you're just delusional. Florida, by the way, were a third seed; furthermore they were a 4th seed in 2005, hardly a "come from nowhere" team.

"[If you] compare us to our [2006 championship] Gator team, as far as guys trying to be unselfish and sacrificing for the team to win, I think that's the way that we're looking right now and hopefully we'll keep it up," Horford said.

ugh...Gumby level stretch dude. Different players, different time, different coach, different administration, different opponents, different fucking league. At least it is the same sport, albeit with different rules. I think that counts as progress in this article.

That championship run for Florida featured five future NBA players -- Horford, Joakim Noah, Corey Brewer, Taurean Green and Chris Richard -- and none of them stood out individually.

and this has also been true at the NBA levell; key for success? No really good players, it'll kill you every time. Avoid the Tim Duncan's, the Kobe Bryant's, the Shaquille O'Neal's, the Kevin Garnett's, at all costs. When's the last time an MVP actually even went to the Finals? Only four of the last nine times, not even 50%! I can't think of a bigger handicap than great players on a team.

They sacrificed personal glory and statistical achievements for the ultimate goal of winning.

in all seriousness, this is so misleading. It's a ridiculous appropriation of the word "sacrifice". Statistical achievement is not the opposite of winning, OK? Admittedly, when it comes to scoring, and scoring alone, there is an element when deferring shots is advantageous, but in pretty much every other area, the more stats you can pile up, blocks, rebounds, steals, assists, the better your team will be. You'll hear "gambling" for steals a lot too but generally, the league leaders in steals (Kidd, Iverson, Bryant, Artest) are almost always on elite defensive teams - the point is very, very overplayed. Had Joakim Noah been a more capable offensive player, this would not have been a handicap for the Florida Gators - period.

Horford thinks that the Hawks are forging a similar culture in Atlanta. And much like in Tampa, the front office in Atlanta seems to finally be making a conscious effort to retain its talent after years of putting financial gains over trying to win.

well they only two months ago had an actual owner, so...not so surprised that this was an improvement, I wouldn't start ordering those Finals tickets just yet though Sergio.

"I think we've made some big strides as a team," Horford said. "I feel very confident about the decisions that our team made in the offseason, being able to get Josh Smith back and making some key additions. I feel that we are a better team than we were last year."

key additions...Maurice Evans, Ronald Murray, you are today's Joe the Plumber! Enjoy the ego boost my man!

The Hawks may be better than they were a year ago...

but almost certainly not, Josh Childress was one of the top five sixth men in the league last year. He scored 11.8ppg at a crazy 57.1%, added nearly five rebounds and a steal while playing 30 minutes a contest. Pretty flimsy case boys.

but they still head into this NBA season with 50-1 Vegas odds.

but the Rays were 70-1, so this is a GREAT thing right? What you don't want to be is 6-1, that just spells doom. I mean look at the Patriots last year! That happens EVERY time. The favourite has never won anything ever. This New York Giants thing threatens to be the "that's what Hitler did" of the sports world, brace yourselves people, every underdog for the next ten years will claim to be the Giants.

The team is considered to have up-and-coming young talent, but the belief is that while they have made the right moves to potentially be a force in the future...

who's belief? Not at all convinced this is correct. Classical journalism "it has been said", "it is widely argued" kind of thing.

they are still too raw to have a chance to win just yet. But isn't that what they said about the Giants? And the Rays? And Horford's Gators? Having been there before, Horford has much more confidence in his team than the oddsmakers do.

you forgot Buster Douglas and Appalachian State. On this argument, I could argue that Memphis, Oklahoma City, New Jersey and Indiana all simultaneously will win the 2008-2009 NBA Championship. Honestly, this is the argument - everyone thinks they will be bad, thus, they will probably be good. That's the extent of it, this is putrid stuff.

Last year, the Hawks were a surprising entry into the Eastern Conference playoffs.

again, debatable, let's not pretend the 8th seed in the East is some wonderful appointment. They did go 37-45. If I told you at the start of last year Atlanta would go 37-45 would you have been like "wow, I'm really surprised?". I suspect not. I suspect actually almost all of you would go "that sounds almost definately within +/-5 wins of correct".

A midseason trade to acquire Mike Bibby from the Sacramento Kings propelled them into the eighth and final playoff spot with a good run down the stretch. They finished the season with an uninspiring 37-45 record, but wound up pushing the eventual champion Boston Celtics to seven games. The next step, conceivably, would have Atlanta making a serious playoff run in the revitalized East.

probably said a lot more about Boston than Atlanta, and as Hollinger has pointed oout so many times his bald little head was about to explode, Boston were like +800 billion, give or take four or five, on point differential.

That is what the East has become now. Boston's spanking of the Lakers in the Finals in June and an influx of young talent around the conference (mainly brought about from years of dominating the lottery) means that the East no longer has to differ to the big, bad West as the clearly superior conference.

so your (very brief) argument that the East is vastly improved (which I broadly agree with), favours the Hawks making a run in the East? How does that make sense? If I'm in a race with 3rd graders, and do well, and then you put me next to Bolt and Powell, and you say "the next conceivable step is for you to win this race", how does that make sense? Admittedly this is a contrived and extreme analogy but you follow right...this guy here knows what I'm talking about.

Now there is LeBron James in Cleveland, Dwight Howard in Orlando, Chris Bosh in Toronto, Andre Iguodala in Philadelphia, Dwyane Wade and Michael Beasley in Miami and Derrick Rose in Chicago. And, of course, Horford, Smith, Marvin Williams and Joe Johnson are in Atlanta. Horford thinks his team can hold its own within that group.

what a bizarre list. James, Howard, Wade and possibly Bosh all belong in basically the same category (James probably the outlier there by himself), but Iguodala? Like, Elton Brand is way better. In fact, Iguodala had a pretty mediocre year last year, especially in the context of a suprise team. His numbers weren't that bad, but he was criticised from many corners, his rebounding and assist numbers falling and his FT% falling dramatically. Derrick Rose and Beasley are, of course, darlings of this years draft class, which looked to me (admittedly college hoops is not my forte) a relatively mediocre one, but have done nothing in the NBA. And of course the Marvin Williams shout out is just from outer space (14.8ppg@46.2% from a PF, 5.7rpg and less than half a block a game in serious minutes).

"Obviously, they are proven teams," said Horford. "We feel good about our team. I think we have to keep getting better and keep working. And as long as we do that I think we should have a good chance to compete with those other teams."

And that is what the Hawks are this season. A good young team with a chance, even if nobody knows it yet. If we only had the foresight to make that statement about the Rays back in March.

...check and mate?

0 comments James "Eleven Win" Posey

It's kind of amazing how quickly the NBA season turns around. I only really get warmed up around Feb/March as I find the NBA season kind of farcical. Too many teams get in the final tournament, it's too obvious who are the contenders (usually a small group relative to other sports, although this year it was a pretty open field) and that they will cruise all season. The "race" of the season is for spots 5-8 in either conference generally and really, who the fuck cares?

Anyway, because I only really get into it late, it takes me a while to fully unwind from the rigours of Naismithball and lo and behold, when I look at the calendar we are only seven weeks away from tip off - seriously! ESPN, however, came prepared, and as September dawns, so do their first bout of 2008-2009 power rankings. Well...not quite, it's East and West rankings (don't really know why this was necessary, maybe Marc Stein owns a patent to the concept of "power rankings"). It's all speculative stuff anyway, so I don't really care about their east or west picks (although Toronto seems low, Detroit high, Houston low, Phoenix way too high - they'll be terrible, bottom five team, you heard it here first) but I did catch this piece of comedy gold about Boston.

How big is the Posey problem? Enough that the departure of Big Game James helps take the Celtics down 11 wins in our survey. Plus, by next June, the Big Three will nearly be the Big 33 (Kevin Garnett, 33; Paul Pierce, 31; Ray Allen, 33). But guess what? They're still the East's beasts.

now, I'm no rocket scientist like the boys at ESPN, but I think I know it when I see bullshit, and ladies and gentlemen, I am reaching for the nearest megaphone, clearing my throat and with the heartiest cry yelling "bullshit" at the top of my lungs.

I get it, ok? Team unity, "glue guy", intangibles, all that stuff, I think there's a place for that in sports, especially basketball with it's emphasis on using resources effectively rather than counting stats. I respect defensive acumen, and the difficulty of pinning stats on a players defensive ability. I'm totally there, I'm with you, Bruce Bowen should start on a championship quality team, despite being 313rd in all players in PER, below Acie Law and Jared Jeffries. OK? I get it.

Secondly, I don't like the Celtics, I was really surprised at how well they did last year, and there's a million reasons to doubt them (I like Philly for that division myself). Garnett is old, Ray Allen is fucking done and if he is, no one except Paul Pierce can shoot, no more hunger (that's an intangible, see! I'm not a monster), long, long season, injuries are inevidable, etc. But James fucking Posey is like 93rd on that list of reasons.

James Posey averaged 7.4ppg last year, shooting a terrible 41.8%, played the lowest mpg in his career (24.6) and had an A/TO of 1.75 (below Jemario Moon) and will be 32 through this season. He is MAYBE Boston's fifth best player. I found this, it's from here, take it for what it's worth but it seems at least a rough approximation.

Players worth eleven wins?

Yao Ming.

Tony Parker.

Carmelo Anthony.

David West.

James Posey? He was worth three. Along with immortals like Anthony Carter, Kyle Lowry and Kelenna Azubuike.

The good news? Hornets fans can expect 67 wins from this team next year with the injection of Posey, congratulations - he's basically as good as Carmelo Anthony apparently.