Showing posts with label cliff lee. Show all posts
Showing posts with label cliff lee. Show all posts

Monday, April 13, 2015

2 comments Ten Things I Think I Think Peter King Has Not Thought Of: David Steele Uses Quotes from Five Years Ago to Advocate for Tim Tebow Edition

I have a huge backlog of links that don't deserve a full post but should be mentioned on this blog in some form. So I thought I would clear them out and share little tidbits of bad sports journalism (or "nuggets" of bad journalism as Peter King would say). As always, the topic of these links bounce around all over the place. It's a real problem when an article doesn't merit a full post here and I will try to rectify that situation.

1. Let's start first with the ex-NFL quarterback who won't go away. That's Tim Tebow. David Steele lets his readers in on a secret. Those people who have coached and worked with Tim Tebow still think he can be an NFL quarterback. No way! And by the way, David takes testimonials from five years go to prove that Tebow can still play in the NFL. Doesn't that seem a bit ridiculous to try and prove Tebow can still be an NFL quarterback in 2015 by using a quote from 2010, prior to the time Tebow confirmed that he indeed is not an NFL quarterback?

Tim Tebow got another look from the NFL Monday, according to ESPN’s Adam Schefter, and he arrived to his tryout with the Eagles off of workouts with Tom House, the longtime major-league pitching coach who has worked on mechanics with Tom Brady and Drew Brees, among others.

Tom House made Drew Brees and Tom Brady into the quarterbacks they are today, so he can do the same for Tim Tebow. Obviously, the indication David Steele is giving here is really true. 

House, who had worked with the ex-Bronco and Jet before, was complimentary of Tebow, who hasn’t played a regular-season game since 2012 and was last on a roster in 2013 Patriots training camp. “He went from being a little inaccurate and didn’t throw a whole lot of spirals, to throwing very accurate and real good at spinning the ball,” House told the Boston Globe last week.

With all due respect to House and his track record, this all sounds familiar.

Coaches that Tebow has worked with or paid to have work with him think he'll be a good NFL quarterback? I don't believe it. It's not like these coaches have a vested financial interest in reinforcing their ability to turn college quarterbacks into good NFL quarterbacks or anything. No coach would say something in order to increase the perception he is good at his job.

House is the latest in a line of personal coaches Tebow has enlisted to work on his quarterback shortcomings, dating back to his days preparing to enter the NFL out of Florida in 2010.

People Tebow has paid to work with him and improve his ability think they did a good job in improving Tebow's ability. I'm not sure this should be news.

Nevertheless, here’s the list of Tebow tutors and their testimonials.

— “If this guy can’t be a starting quarterback in the NFL, then I was in the wrong profession for a lot of years.” — former NFL head coach Sam Wyche, who worked with Tebow before the draft, February 2010.

Considering Sam Wyche stated this prior to Tebow being drafted and failing out of the NFL, my only takeaway from this is that Sam Wyche was in the wrong profession for a lot of years.

Does David Steele realize using testimonials from BEFORE Tebow was drafted and failed in the NFL serves to only undermine the point he wants to prove that Tebow can play in the NFL? See Wyche made this statement in 2010 and then this statement was proven to be incorrect after that. So, that seems to run counter to the idea Tebow can play the quarterback position well in the NFL.

— “I don't know that I’m the only one who has the sense of Tim’s ability to be developed and become a very good player in the league. I believe in the right environment Tim Tebow will figure this out. He doesn't have explosive arm strength, but he has more than adequate arm strength to throw the ball in the NFL and make all the throws.’’ — then-CFL head coach Marc Trestman, who trained Tebow before the Senior Bowl, April 2010

This quote is from 2010, which is prior to the time Tebow washed out of the league. And again, this is a person with a vested interest in making it seem like Tebow can play in the NFL. Trestman wanted to make it seem like he can improve a quarterback's ability through training that quarterback.

— “I would hope wherever he ends up, they give him an opportunity to play, because if they do, they'll be pleasantly surprised. I think the guy can still play.” — quarterback consultant Steve Clarkson, April 2013

He can "still play"? Why use the word "still" there as if Tebow ever did play well in the past?

Also, Tebow got a shot with the Patriots in 2013, but I'm sure Bill Belichick just doesn't have the right eye for the talent that Tebow showed in training camp. Belichick is well-known for having a poor eye for talent at the quarterback position.

— “Do I think he can play the quarterback position in the NFL? Yeah, no question. Like I told Tim when I found out … that he signed, ‘You're locked and loaded, ready to go.’” — former Heisman Trophy winner and NFL quarterback Chris Weinke, June 2013

Except the Patriots didn't keep Tebow around. Notice how none of these quotes are from 2014 or 2015? There is a reason for that.

— “In shorts, out there on the football field, he changed his motion and he’s very smooth. I’ve got it on film, and film doesn’t lie. What he does when he goes out in a game situation and live bullets, I’m not sure what will happen. I just know he’s a great guy, a hard worker, and this off-season his throwing motion became 100 times better.” — quarterback trainer Dennis Gile, who worked with partner Mike Giovando on Tebow, June 2013

And that's it. Another quarterback trainer swearing that Tim Tebow is an NFL quarterback. This quote is from a relatively recent two years ago. I'm not sure the point David Steele wanted to prove, unless his point was, "Hey 2-5 years ago people who have a vested interest in Tim Tebow succeeding stated he could succeed. That has to mean something as long as you ignore their vested interest and the fact years have gone by where their statements have been proven to be incorrect, right?"

2. Joel Sherman thinks the Yankees dodged a huge bullet by not signing Cliff Lee as a free agent in 2010. Because sure, Lee was great during 2011-2014, but he's injured now. Clearly, Cliff Lee could not have helped the Yankees win any games during that stretch of time from 2011-2014.

The current rotation concerns of the Yankees and Rangers could be worse — Cliff Lee could have accepted one of the two highest total bids in December 2010.

Lee turned down the Yankees’ seven-year, $150 million offer and the six year, $138 million bid of the Rangers — the teams viewed as the strong front-runners — to sign a five-year, $120 million pact with the Phillies.

Cliff Lee's performance from 2011-2014. I'll let you decide if this would have been helpful for the Yankees to have as a part of their starting pitching staff.

2011: 32 starts 17-8 with a 2.40 ERA and 1.027 WHIP
2012: 30 starts 6-9 with a 3.16 ERA and 1.114 WHIP
2013: 31 starts 14-8 with a 2.87 ERA and 1.010 WHIP
2014: 13 starts 4-5 with a 3.66 ERA and 1.377 WHIP

Now, after missing the final two months last year, Lee has received two diagnosis the tear in the region needs surgery. That would end his 2015 season and, since this is the final year guaranteed on his contract, Lee has suggested he might retire if he needs the procedure.

Cliff Lee performed at a high level for three of the five years on his contract during a time when the Yankees certainly could have used another starter during the 2011 and 2012 playoffs, especially since they lost the ALDS 3-2 to the Tigers in 2011.

The Rangers, already with a thin rotation, are likely to lose ace Yu Darvish for the season if he opts for Tommy John surgery. The Yankees’ rotation is shaky in part due to the uncertainty of CC Sabathia. There is, in fact, strong parallels to Lee and Sabathia — both won Cy Youngs for the Indians (Sabathia in 2007, Lee in 2008) and both were extreme lefty workhorses with Sabathia leading the majors in innings from 2005-13 (1,999 ¹/₃ innings) and Lee fifth (1,833 ²/₃), which probably explains why they have broken down.

OR Cliff Lee broke down because he's 36 years old and older pitchers tend to break down more. The fact Lee broke down for 1.5 years of his 5 year contract doesn't mean the Yankees couldn't have used him during the 3.5 years when he was pitching at a high level.

Sabathia tried hard to recruit Lee to the Yankees in the winter of 2010. Maybe the Yankees would have won championships with Sabathia and Lee together or Lee would not have broken down as a Yankee. But in 2015, it sure looks fortunate Sabathia’s recruitment didn’t succeed.

But from 2011-2014, it sure looks like pure stupidity to think the Yankees couldn't have used Lee. Why would Joel Sherman think at all about Lee's past performance though? After all, it's not like the Yankees have ever signed an expensive free agent only to have him get injured.

3. Rick Telander furthers a narrative he wants to further by claiming the guy who worked with Bill James while employed by the Red Sox eschews Sabermetrics.

In 2002, at age 28, Epstein became the Red Sox’ general manager, the youngest in major-league history. He would win two World Series titles in the next five years, ending an 86-year championship drought for the Red Sox.
Here’s the relevance of  this to Theo’s current job as president of the Cubs: Sabermetrics and those algorithms he and his crew punched into computers, which then spat out genius statistical info . . . that stuff is dead as prairie chickens.

Epstein has learned the error of his ways. Sure, his use of Sabermetrics helped to win the Red Sox two World Series titles, but it's all about the humanity for Epstein now.

Well, moneyball is not actually dead — it’s just no more special than a pile of dead chickens.

‘‘Fifteen years ago there weren’t that many teams specializing in the statistical model to succeed,’’ he says. ‘‘You could really get an advantage using it. In the offseason of 2002, into 2003, the Red Sox needed to improve our offense, and we needed to get on base more. So we could sign Davey Ortiz to a one-year deal, Bill Mueller to a two-year deal, and also sign Kevin Millar, whom no one wanted and was going to Japan, based largely on the numbers, on the things you could learn from the statistical analysis.  Now the world is so flat — everyone’s doing that!’’

Oh, that makes sense. Moneyball isn't dead, it's just being so used in such a wide and prevalent manner by every MLB team that it's now become a part of the evaluation process for a team's front office. So by saying Moneyball is dead, what Rick Telander really means is that Moneyball is more alive than it ever has been.

So what does a smart man do to once again move beyond the herd? He goes new age. He looks at the game he loves and sees that a really big part of it has been taken over by the numerical lists he helped make so popular, yet an equally large part of it has seemingly been ignored—the emotional, human part. How’s that for irony, moneyballers?

You certainly told them, Rick. Feel good about yourself and pat yourself on the back---oh, you are already patting yourself on the back. Just carry on then.

‘‘I think the real competitive advantage now is in player development—understanding that your young players are human beings,’’ says Epstein, whose sky-blue shirt and sky-blue cap made this reporter mistake the now-41-year-old at first for a beer salesman. ‘‘Understanding them physically, fundamentally, and mentally — investing in them as people — and helping them progress. And there’s no stat for that.’’

For example, as human beings Kris Bryant and Anthony Rizzo are really fucking good at baseball. There is a statistic to show this as true.

He finds it embarrassing that he and so many of the front-office people don’t speak Spanish, so a Spanish tutor is coming in two mornings a week to teach it to the brass.

WHERE'S THE STATISTIC SHOWING TO LEARN TO SPEAK SPANISH, MONEYBALLERS? THERE IS NO STATISTIC THAT TEACHES SPANISH. YOUR COMPUTERS ARE USELESS NOW AREN'T THEY? 

‘‘I don’t think everything in baseball — or life — is quantifiable,’’ he says. ‘‘Sure, if you ignore the stats, if you ignore empiricism, if you ignore objective evidence, then you’re a fool.

Rick Telander conveniently ignores this quote when talking about how Theo Epstein has made a change in how he evaluates players. Epstein calls people "fools" for ignoring statistics and other information used by Sabermetricians to evaluate players, but it doesn't fit the narrative so it's useless to Rick.

But if you invest in stats so fully that you’re blind to the fact the game is played by human beings, then you’re just as much of a fool.’’

Amen.

So Theo Epstein evaluates players using a mix of Sabermetrics and scouting by watching the players play? You know, like every other MLB team does. Rick worked hard to paint this as an anti-stats statement by Theo Epstein. The narrative takes precedence over reality.

4. Now Rick Telander gets increasingly depressed about the hiring of John Fox.

On January 10, 2015 when Ryan Pace was hired, Rick was pretty optimistic.

But if you count teams that simply made it to the Super Bowl, the field opens up. Indeed, in the last 16 years, seven other teams have gotten to the Super Bowl and lost. They are the 49ers, Cardinals, Eagles, Panthers, Titans and Falcons. And, almost forgot, the Bears. That makes 18 teams that have played in the Super Bowl since 1999.
 
So is it wrong to ask, Why not us?

The point being: Why not the Bears? Why not soon? Like 2015?

But who cares about the Cardinals? The Bears went 5-11 this season. Can they return to title quality in one year, as chairman George McCaskey said they should? Yes. And, they should.

It can be done.

So what if you’ve got Jay Cutler at quarterback? You win with him, not because of him. Or you dump him and get a young Russell Wilson or a cagey Joe Theismann or Phil Simms or Jeff Hostetler or Brad Johnson.

IT CAN BE DONE! THIS BEARS TEAM CAN TURN IT AROUND IN ONE YEAR! RICK BELIEVES!

Then on January 17, 2015 after the Bears hired John Fox, Rick became a little more pessimistic about the Bears chances of turning it around.

I’ll join the masses and say that the Bears’ hiring of John Fox was a nice thing.
But am I blown away?
 
Not really.

A football team is so much more than its coach, and sometimes folks don’t want to admit this. Mike Ditka has always said that if you don’t have the player talent, you can’t win.

Oh no, now the same players the Bears had a week earlier that could turn it around can't turn it around anymore.

You go, John Fox! But the ferret in that box over there is named Jay Cutler, and he’s yours. Hope you’ve got gloves and a plan.

Oh boy, looks like the Bears may want to get a Russell Wilson (you know, that type of quarterback like Wilson that's just hanging around on a street corner waiting to be signed) or a cagey Joe Theismann type. Rick's depression has begun.

Then two days later on January 19, 2015 Rick hits rock bottom about the John Fox hiring.

John Fox walks and talks like a coach, and, of course, he was one, and he is one again. Your brand new Bears leader, folks, hot off the rails from Denver, where he was the Broncos’ coach as recently as seven days ago — John (no middle name) Fox!
 
Thirteen years of NFL head-coaching success for the man who will turn 60 next month. Hoo-rah.

What happened to signing cagey quarterbacks and winning with the players the Bears have, because IT CAN BE DONE? Where did the happiness go?

Risking such, I just want to say that maybe Fox isn’t perfect. Maybe, that’s all. Nor can I think of anyone better at the moment to take the spot of Marc Trestman, who leaves after a 5-11 season.

It's all over now, baby blue. Cue the Morrissey (not Rick) and start to anticipate the downward spiral from the eternal happiness that Rick felt just nine days earlier.

So let’s get away from groupthink for a moment — that is, Bears fans’ and management’s certitude du jour that a veteran coach who has been to two Super Bowls, winning neither, is a stroke of pure genius. (May I remind you that Lovie Smith, who took the Bears to a Super Bowl and had a final season of 10-6, was run out of town so that the professorial Trestman could go 13-19 in two seasons.)

It is possible, you know — and don’t stone me for simply mentioning it — that Fox is here to chill and run out the skein on a nice, if unspectacular, career. Five more years, and he’s got Medicare, baby!

It says he’s a fairly mellow, bland guy who will bore you to death at news conferences and show that much pizzazz on the field. He’s good at defense, and he’s known as a players’ coach. But he has never made it all the way to the top.

‘‘He drove Elway crazy because he didn’t hold himself, the players or coaches accountable after losses.  He’ll be an improvement in Chicago, but he won’t win a Super Bowl.’’
 
No, this isn’t gospel. Nor am I a prophet. Nor is Shapiro.
 
Just trying to tell it like it might be.

Nine days earlier the future was so bright for the Bears. Then the Bears hired a head coach that Rick Telander admits was probably the best person for the vacant head coaching position and the future suddenly turned cloudy. Weird how that happened when nothing else changed, isn't it?

5. To add to Rick Telander's dismay, he doesn't know what's happened to Bruce Jenner. More importantly, how does Bruce Jenner's gender change impact Rick Telander?

Bruce Jenner and I are the same age — or we will be on Oct. 28, when he turns 66, like yours truly — and I guess that’s as far as the similarities go.
I used to think we had things in common.

Rick Telander does not want breasts. Let's get this out of the way at the very beginning.

I used to idolize Jenner, such as idolization flows from a guy in his mid-20s who follows a white, similar-sized (6-1, 195 pounds — though far more muscular), similar-aged, Midwestern college-educated, long-locked, striving athlete who soon would be an Olympic gold-medal winner in the brutal decathlon and, thus, the ‘‘world’s greatest athlete.’’

I can deal with a lot of things in life. But Jenner, who is, if we believe reports — and our eyes — transitioning to become a woman, throws me for a loop. I’m sorry, it just does. I am who I am. I apologize if I have offended anyone.

Well Rick, Jenner's transition to a woman is mostly about you and how you handle his transition. After all, prior to transitioning Jenner should have at least consulted you on how your memories of him as a decathlete would be impacted by his transition.

If Jenner knows he is a woman long trapped in an incredibly masculine body, then so be it. The extreme plastic surgery, the Adam’s apple apparently shaved, the ponytail, the breasts supported by a sports bra, the nail polish — no man would do that for kicks.

Except for Jay Cutler. He just wants to watch the world burn.

Jenner was featured on the front of a Wheaties box, for God’s sake, the signature placement for the greatest American heroes. But I’ll ask you: Does anybody eat Wheaties anymore? Does anybody notice what’s on the cover of what they eat?

No Rick, nobody eats Wheaties anymore. You know why? Because Bruce Jenner has affected your memories of the past. Much like you, no one else can eat a bowl of cereal without searching inside themselves while eating that cereal wondering, "How can I eat this delicious goodness knowing 40 years ago a man appeared on the front of the box and that man is now a woman? Can women even eat Wheaties? If so, SHOULD women be allowed to eat Wheaties?"

In 1976, Jenner’s gold medal reaffirmed Americans’ belief in our ability to counter communist determinism with democratic freedom. That’s what I felt; that’s what I believed.

Now that Jenner is transitioning to a woman, communism has won. Mr. Putin, build that wall back up. Bruce Jenner is looking for high heels and communism is in style again.

Jenner was somebody I could look up to, a role model so close to me in so many ways, I felt, that he became almost a fantasy. He didn’t just beat a foe, like a heavyweight boxer. He beat the best in the world all at once.

I had the Sports Illustrated cover of him with his jacked arms raised, his fists clenched, his eyes closed in ecstasy, pinned on my wall. The headline read, ‘‘AWRRIGHT!’’

Now when he looks at the headline all Rick reads is "AWASALEONPURSES!"

I’ve seen Chaz Bono.

Rick has one gay friend and one black friend. He counts them. This makes him a non-racist and definitely not a bigot.

But I’m writing this from my perspective, my world. It’s all I know.
 
And I’m dizzy. I’m almost lost.

Bruce Jenner definitely should have thought about Rick Telander's nostalgia and the fate of Wheaties cereal before taking steps to make himself happier.

6. Phil Mushnick warns his readers about "dangerous" basketball. Yep, you guessed it. Much like how Florida Gulf Coast won games by dunking, Phil doesn't like it when amateur athletes dunk. It sends a bad message to the kids.

“Would I have yanked one of my kids for doing that? In a heartbeat.”
Jack Alesi, 62, reckons he has been coaching basketball “since I was 18,” the last 30 years at Brooklyn’s Xaverian High School, the last 20 of those as head varsity boys coach. Friday night, Xaverian plays Christ The King in the Diocesan final.

Alesi is talking about this dunk:




“I’m not one to stifle creativity,” Alesi said Wednesday.

Just don't do any creative or fancy dunks. That's not stifling creativity, it's only standing up for what's right and good about sports. Sports are NOT entertainment.

“If a kid finds it easier to dunk the ball than lay it in, fine by me. Bob Cousy dribbled between his legs to the benefit of his teams. There’s a difference between creative and plain stupid. TV can’t seem to distinguish between the two. It doesn’t even try.

“I wouldn’t try to embarrass that LSU kid, but if ever there was a teaching moment, that was it. Take him out, explain it, put him back in.”

"I'm old and have some weird thing about how you shouldn't use your athleticism to put on a show for those who pay to watch you play basketball. Don't make me uncomfortable by dunking the basketball in a creative manner. This isn't my issue, this is YOUR issue. It was stupid to try that dunk, even though you pulled it off. I'm old, if I haven't made that clear enough. I don't want to stifle your creativity, but just don't do anything creative that the fans might enjoy. Here, have some Wheaties."

Alesi was still flabbergasted and frustrated by the glorious hysteria the deep-thinking ESPN basketball experts, studio anchors and production shot-callers made over LSU forward Jarell Martin’s breakaway slam dunk that was preceded by a between-his-legs, greater degree-of-difficulty move — versus no one — in a tie game Saturday against Florida.

I like how Phil Mushnick goes through life trying to find things to be offended by. It's a bitter, sad life when your only purpose is to complain about how offended you are by the present and continuously long for the past.

“Would these TV guys coach kids to do such a thing, especially in a tie game, instruct them to turn an easy two points into a difficult two points? Do they really believe that that kid made a great play, did the right thing? Really? Honestly?

Did he do "the right thing?" An unpaid amateur athlete chose to dunk in a creative manner during a tie game and it's being couched in terms of "right" and "wrong." Unbelievable.

“I watch what TV has done to this game, and I shake my head. I do. It’s enough to make you cry.”

Cry? Like you would cry over an athlete dunking the basketball in a tie game? That's something you would actually cry about? The only thing shameful or dangerous in regard to this story is how Phil Mushnick and Alesi manage to turn an amateur athlete dunking a basketball into a story about "right and wrong."

7. Want to know why Max Scherezer isn't back with the Tigers? It's because he knew his market value and that hurt Mike Ilitch's feelings.

The pitcher had wiggled out of a bases-loaded jam with two strikeouts and a line drive to center in a critical playoff game. He spun around and bounced off the mound. He pumped his fist toward the heavens. And then he walloped his teammates with a series of monstrous high-5s, shrieking in triumph.

Those were human emotions. Joy in triumph. Max's overwhelming display of his joy was understandable at the moment.

But emotions are common to all people. And some people do not display them as openly as Scherzer did that October afternoon in 2013 when he rescued the Tigers, in relief, from the brink of playoff elimination by the Athletics.

Mike Ilitch is private and he is proud. Winning means just about everything to him. It has since he and Marian, his wife, blended some flour in a pot of water and created a pizza mixture that would turn into heavy millions.

Long story short here, the Tigers made a contract offer to Max Scherzer that he rejected and this made Ilitch upset and sealed that Scherzer would not be back with the Tigers after the 2014 season. Apparently Ilitch is so proud that he doesn't understand how business negotiations work.

One year ago this month, Ilitch approved an offer of $144 million to cement Scherzer to the Tigers for six years.

The offer was rejected. Scherzer, the projected Tiger for life, turned down the money and the security. He and his slick agent, Scott Boras, gambled that there would be more money offered and more security in a year.

Two things:

1. I love how Green calls Boras "slick" because he got the most money possible for his client in free agency. That's pretty much the job Boras was hired to do and he did it well. That's not "slick," that's competent.

2. There was more money and more security offered in a year. So Ilitch doesn't have to offer Scherzer another contract after the $144 million was rejected, but Scherzer gambled and it paid off.

But you don't reject Mike Ilitch. You don't snub him. You don't scoff at Ilitch's generosity.

Haha..."generosity" that ended up being less than Scherzer could make on the open market. I'm not sure I would call that being "generous" more than it would be offering Scherzer a contract which was fair, but not what he ended up being worth on the open market. Scherzer thought he was worth more and it turns out he was right. There's no reason to take it personally.

You don't stamp on Ilitch's ego. Even the best pitcher in the American League, advised by the shrewdest player agent in the business, could never get away with insulting Ilitch.

Except, Scherzer did get away with a bigger contract that had more security.

"I think we've made it clear that we have not been pursuing the situation," Dombrowski told The News' Chris McCosky after Scherzer agreed to sign with the Nationals in January. "We've said it numerous times . . .

"We made a real run at Max last spring and it didn't work."

Ilitch never cared to match the Washington offer. The guess here is if the Tigers had made a matching offer a couple of months ago, Scherzer would have grabbed it. Even if the Tigers came somewhat close the Nationals' jackpot, Scherzer, I reckon, would have grabbed less money in defiance of Boras.

Maybe he would have. I don't know. A pitcher who turns down $144 million certainly sounds like a pitcher who is looking to maximize his value on the free agent market.

My theory is, "Goodby." You don't dare to rankle Mike Ilitch. Farewell!

So hurt feelings caused by a rejected business contract is the reason Scherzer isn't with the Tigers anymore. Scherzer landed with a team that is competing for a World Series title and he got more money and a longer contract than the Tigers offered...Ilitch sure showed him didn't he? 

8. Steve Dilbeck has not been pleased with the Dodgers for hiring Andrew Friedman and his Stats Geek army. So he is taking great pride in the Dodgers' best pitching prospect being sent down to minor league camp. After all, who didn't expect an 18 year old to make the Dodgers' Opening Day roster?

The first cut is the deepest, particularly if you’re one of the four sent out. And especially if you’re been hyped as much as left-hander Julio Urias.

An 18 year old pitcher who has never pitched above A+ ball is expected to be one of the first cuts out of camp. Nothing else would make sense. It's entirely possible for Urias to be a great pitcher one day, but he's 18 years old and Steve Dilbeck shouldn't take such idiotic glee in Urias being sent down.

But Urias, the 18-year-old wunderkind, was one of the first four players reassigned to the minor-league camp Saturday by the Dodgers.

Most of the winter Dilbeck thought Urias should have been traded for a proven baseball player. That's what this is all about. It's about Dilbeck disagreeing with the direction of the Dodgers franchise and doing whatever he can to make it seem like Andrew Friedman is constantly screwing up.

Despite his electric stuff, Urias looked like a teenager who could use some more seasoning in his two spring outings.

This is most likely because he IS a teenager who could use some more seasoning before he's ready to play in the majors. Dilbeck can't believe this is true though. If Urias isn't ready to dominate in the majors RIGHT NOW then he'll never be ready. The Dodgers should just trade him now while his value is still high.

Dilbeck needs to stop being passive-aggressive in his constant assault against Andrew Friedman. This assault against Friedman is based on Dilbeck's dislike of advanced statistics. That's it. So it's come to where Dilbeck is being sarcastic and snarky about an 18 year old pitcher being sent down to minor league camp, as if this means anything long-term for the Dodgers or the 18 year old pitcher. I hate it when sportswriters have agendas.

9. Dilbeck also didn't want the Dodgers to trade Matt Kemp. Despite being a critic of Kemp's in the past, once Dilbeck saw a chance to criticize Andrew Friedman he immediately became Kemp's biggest fan. Now Dilbeck is writing stories about Kemp in order to point out that he wasn't a bad teammate. It's just sometimes his teammates didn't like him. This wouldn't affect the clubhouse chemistry. Steve Dilbeck is going to run Andrew Friedman out of town, no matter what it takes. He blames Friedman for using too many statistics to evaluate players and now he thinks Friedman factored in the human element of having good clubhouse chemistry too much by trading Matt Kemp.

Matt Kemp is mystified, and perhaps some of you are mystified that he would be mystified. He’s not bewildered at his trade by the Dodgers to the Padres, but by the implication that his departure has helped rid the L.A. of some evil clubhouse cancer.

I can't recall anyone in the Dodgers organization saying that Kemp was a cancer, so this implication is being brought up and furthered by sportswriters like Steve Dilbeck. He suggested that Kemp was a cancer and has set about to disprove this as true.

I’d say this was the most overblown Dodgers story of the off-season, but really it has only been propagated by a couple of national baseball writers -- and it takes no imagination to figure out whose ear they have -- and not the local beat writers who actually know the team.

Yeah! The Dodgers players liked Matt Kemp and no one should write differently!

Kemp had a way of strutting and enjoying the spotlight that may have rubbed some teammates the wrong way. But his days of “see how cool I can look playing center field” were well past him.

Oh, well I guess there is that too.

At midseason, when he unhappily had been moved from center to left and was playing something slightly less than every day, he would have been served sharing his thoughts only with management.

“I want to play every day, if it's with the Dodgers, if it's with somebody else,” Kemp said then.

Being unhappy with his role on the team and not wanting to change positions to help the team, these are two things that absolutely would NOT affect how Kemp's teammates liked him. Plus, this is all Andrew Friedman's fault somehow.

Looking back, Kemp told Hernandez, “I kept hearing maybe he's going to platoon. For me, it wasn't something I was able to wrap my mind around. I felt like if I wouldn't have said anything, just let it all play out the way it played out, they would have said I didn't care about playing on the field. But when I said I had to be in there playing every day, they said I was a bad teammate. I don't feel like that makes me a bad teammate. I know my abilities and I know when I'm healthy and I'm on the field, I could have helped my team win.”

So Kemp was just saying that he thought he should play everyday and didn't want to platoon. If he had just kept his mouth shut and not worried about platooning then "they" would have written that he doesn't care about the team because he was willing to put his ego aside for the betterment of the team. Great point. 

That might sound a bit more selfish than many would like, but it’s nothing outlandish, either.

No, but it is the sort of thing that can rankle teammates just a little bit. Kemp was basically saying, "I want to play everyday and I'm better than a guy who platoons in the outfield." I can see how that wouldn't cause Kemp's teammates to clap him on the back and congratulate him on taking one for the team. 

Kemp is only 30 and hopefully has a long career still ahead of him. He actually looks pretty good in a Padres uniform, though looking good was never his problem. And neither was being some grand clubhouse cancer.

I think the only ones saying that Kemp was a clubhouse cancer are those like Steve Dilbeck who want to explain a reason why Kemp was traded away that doesn't deal with his performance on the field. The truth is in the middle, that while Kemp wasn't a great teammate (despite Dilbeck's protests that Kemp wasn't THAT bad, which is enough to piss off a few teammates), nobody should think Kemp was traded because he was a bad teammate. The funny part is that Dilbeck speaks out against Friedman using too many computers and numbers to evaluate players while ignoring the human aspect, but also claims that Friedman only paid attention to the human aspect and ignored the numbers and statistics by trading Matt Kemp. Friedman is too numbers-oriented unless that perception doesn't fit the agenda Steve Dilbeck has. In that case, Dilbeck feels free to flip this perception around to fit whatever agenda he has on a given day.

10. Here is something that isn't bad sportswriting from Bruce Jenkins. He dares to take a measured approach to the use of analytics.

Charles Barkley seems to think there’s some sort of war going on. He fights it alone, well on his way to becoming chairman of the “I don’t get analytics” committee.

He ridiculed analytics as “crap,” apparently not realizing he was also denouncing rebound totals and points per game. As far as his dismissing stat wizards as “people who never played the game,” there’s some truth to that. But if Barkley wants to believe that such NBA icons as Gregg Popovich and Pat Riley don’t conduct extensive studies of advanced metrics, he’s wildly misguided.

The statistical revolution hasn’t taken over the major sports, it merely enhances player evaluation at every level. Every smart executive crafts a harmonious relationship between long-trusted scouts (as in “trust your eyes”) and the volumes of advanced metrics that prove invaluable in analyzing matchups, tendencies and percentages.

This is impossible. It's either one or the other. Just ask Rick Telander. A team either hates or loves advanced statistics. There can be no in between. Ever. Never. No NBA coach or GM would ever admit to use advanced statistics.

Warriors GM Bob Myers, to FM 95.7: “When we make decisions, analytics are never more than 50 percent of the process.”

Dallas coach Rick Carlisle: “There’s a lot of information available, but 'selectively’ is the word. There are tools there that are extremely useful. You just have to make sure you don’t overdo it.”

Houston coach Kevin McHale: “It’s just another tool in the toolbox, and very useful. But the toughest thing in this business is how much does a guy love to play? How much does he love to compete? How tough is he? How is he going to play when someone kicks his ass? What’s he going to do the next day?”

Oh. So Bruce Jenkins is writing that NBA teams use advanced statistics as part of the evaluation process and admit to it? What happened to "either/or" and sportswriters claiming that statistics are ruining the sport? This is happening, lack of evidence be damned.

This is a war that doesn’t exist. Only a fool dares to belittle either side.

Exactly. Maybe when the anti-advanced stats crowd stops belittling the use of these statistics "idiots" like Daryl Morey will feel free to not belittle those who sound ignorant when dismissing new ideas, simply because they are threatened by these ideas. 

Wednesday, June 13, 2012

4 comments Cliff Lee Needs to Just Win The Game Himself

We all miss the JoeChats that Joe Morgan used to do for ESPN.com. While it is nice he is no longer a member of the ESPN Sunday Night Baseball team, this also means we don't get Joe Morgan chatting with people on a weekly basis. We don't get him defending Ryan Howard using Matt Holliday as a comparable player, Morgan hating on wins and his consistent ability to stay consistent in answering consistently to the questions asked. So we need a Joe Morgan fix. Fortunately, Joe went on 94WIP with Michael Barkann and Ike Reese recently to talk about baseball recently. Joe Morgan has solved Cliff Lee's inability to win many games this year. His solution? Cliff Lee just needs to take it up on himself and go win some games.

We all know the Phillies have missed Ryan Howard and Chase Utley in the middle of the order this year, so let's look at what kind of run support Cliff Lee has received from his Phillies teammates when he pitches. Lee had made nine starts when Joe went on the radio and made his comments. Lee has pitched an average of 7 innings per start, has a 2.92 ERA, and is 0-3 on the season. The Phillies have scored 16 runs in 9 starts for him. Cliff Lee was 111th in run support average. Out of nine starts, here the scores from some games Lee has started, with Lee's innings pitched and earned runs in parenthesis:

April 7: 2-1 loss to Pirates (6 innings, 1 run)
April 18: 1-0 loss to Giants (10 innings, 1 run)
May 9: 10-6 loss to Mets (6 innings, 2 runs)
May 15: 4-3 win over Astros (8 innings, 1 run)
May 25: 5-3 win over Cardinals (7 innings, 3 runs)
June 5: 2-1 loss to Dodgers (7.2 innings, 2 runs)

This doesn't include the April 13 and May 20 losses where the Phillies scored three total runs in these two games. Let's just say Cliff Lee isn't getting great run support right now. He has gotten 16 runs in his nine starts. Fortunately, Joe Morgan has the solution for this.

This year, Cliff Lee seems to be getting the short end of the scoring stick with the Phillies. Joe Morgan says that sooner or later, Lee’s going to have to get a win on his own.

That's right. Lee needs to pitch a shutout, which he being a lazy and useless asshole, he hasn't managed to do yet AND he needs to drive in all the Phillies runs. Hey, if Dave Concepcion were a pitcher this is exactly what he would have done. Pitching 10 innings and giving up one run isn't doing enough to win a game. Pitching 8 innings and getting one run isn't enough to get a win either. Lee needs to drive in the necessary runs and pitch a shutout. It's really not that hard.

“There’s always a hard luck pitcher in the starting rotation,” Morgan told 94WIP’s Michael Barkann and Ike Reese on Wednesday. “There’s always going to be one guy that they score less for. Cliff Lee seems to be that guy for the Phillies.”

Which is why Cliff Lee needs to be a man and start working in the batting cage in order to drive runs in for himself.

Lee is winless so far this season, after losing a 2-1 decision to the Dodgers on Tuesday night. Lee pitched well, and took a 1-0 lead into the eighth, before giving up two runs with two outs in the inning.

Well there you go. Lee didn't do enough to win the game, did he? He threw 122 pitches but just couldn't get the job done. This isn't the fault of the Phillies' offense, not at all, that Cliff Lee hasn't won a game this year when he gives up two runs in 7.2 innings of work.

“There comes a time, when you’re a superstar, you’re the star, you’re going to have to do something,” Morgan said.

Joe Morgan directs this statement towards Cliff Lee, naturally, and not towards any of the Phillies hitters. It's not Jimmy Rollins fault. He doesn't need to do anything. His line was .247/.295/.344 when Morgan made these comments. Don't blame Shane Victorino. He's doing all he can hitting .248/.316/.407. What else can you expect from these guys? Cliff Lee is the guy who needs to step up and do something. After all, he's pitching well, so that should easily translate into also hitting well.

“Sometimes [Lee should say to himself], I’m going to have to win the game myself. I’m going to have to pitcher better than the other pitcher on the other team.”

Good idea. Lee already did this when he outpitched Matt Cain, when he outpitched Dillon Gee, when he pitched better than Jeff Karstans, and had the 9th best WHIP and 25th best ERA in the majors this year. Lee has outpitched other pitchers and just not had the luck to get a win. He's had tough luck this year. Outside of pitching a shutout every time out, and driving in the runs himself, there isn't much else he can do.

You can’t be perfect every time out,

Apparently Lee does have to be perfect every time out.

but there are times that the super star has to say I’m going to be better than the other guy on the mound tonight,” Morgan said.

How about there comes a time when Lee says, "How about the offense scores some runs for me? How about my offense is better than the other pitcher tonight, so I can continue to pitch the way I have and get some wins for my team?"

I get what Joe Morgan is saying, that it is on Cliff Lee to pitch well, but I think he's pitched pretty well and doesn't have a hell of a lot to show for it in terms of wins. Of course, this is further proof determining how effective a pitcher is based on wins is a losing proposition. Wins are a bad measurement of a pitcher's effectiveness.

I miss Joe Morgan. Here are some other nuggets from this radio appearance.

(At the 2:40 minute mark)

"Utley is a fine third place hitter and Howard is a great fourth place hitter. You take those two guys out and it just makes a ton of difference. I don't think anyone realizes how much that affects hitters on the offense...Chase Utley gets on and Howard hits a home run...so you have a lead right away and that's just not happening."


Joe Morgan doesn't think anyone realizes missing two All-Star players from the Phillies lineup is making a difference in how many runs they can score? Howard and Utley are the #3 or #4 hitters. Of course those paying attention realize Utley and Howard's absence affects the offense. Joe Morgan is the one telling Cliff Lee to just go out there, pitch better than the other pitcher and win the game. It sounds like Joe Morgan doesn't realize what a difference Utley and Howard make. If he did, perhaps he could have better advice for Cliff Lee than to simply pitch better. I'm pretty sure everyone else knows without those two guys, it is a huge hole in the middle of the Phillies lineup.

Notice that Joe is acknowledging that a pitcher gets wins when his team scores runs, so the amount of runs scored by the offense is tied to whether a pitcher wins a game or not. Let's go back two years to when Joe Morgan was outraged, stunned and outraged I tell you, that Felix Hernandez won the Cy Young Award despite only having 13 wins.

Here's a money quote from Joe about his feelings on this subject...

There are so many things that are involved other than just throwing a number on something. If people think I’m not for that, then they’re right. Because I still think it’s a team game.

Yes, it is a team game, but the Cy Young is an individual award. The Oscar for Best Actor doesn't always go to the male lead in the film that wins Best Picture.

I just wish Joe could put it together that runs are tied to a pitcher's individual performance. It's like Joe understands this because he makes comments that indicate he understands, but he refuses to accept it as a truth.

(At the 5:18 mark when asked about umpiring in MLB)

"It's very difficult to be an umpire in Major League Baseball. I mean, it's not that easy. It's not as easy as it looks. I was an umpire when I was a kid, in college, so I know how difficult it can be at times."


Because umpiring in college and umpiring in Major League Baseball are the exact same thing and all. Not to mention, these MLB umpires make their living doing this job so they should be the very best of the best at umpiring baseball games. I would hope the standard for MLB umpires is higher than that of a college kid umpiring. Simply because it is difficult to umpire a game doesn't mean umpires have a right to be bad at their job and miss calls nor does this mean instant replay shouldn't be expanded.

All in all, I would guess Joe Morgan was a very consistent umpire. He's a pretty short guy, so I wonder if he had to stand up behind the catcher, rather than kneel, so he could get a good look at whether a pitch was a ball or strike. Overall, I would guess he was consistently consistent at umpiring and enjoyed umpiring back in college when there were still all-around good MLB teams...unlike in today's game of baseball when so few teams go on a 25 game winning streak that occurred solely in Joe's mind. There are no elite baseball teams anymore you know.

(At the 6:45 mark when talking about umpires not working together to get a call right)

"I would be more critical of an umpire for not getting the play right, than I am them just blowing it."

Yeah, I know---wait, what? Aren't these the same thing, just phrased differently?

(At the 7:15 mark when asked umpires having too much of an ego to admit they got the call wrong)

"I criticize not that they missed the play, but they let it stand as a group. I don't blame just the guy who missed that play, I blame the other three guys too. Because they saw it and they should have said something like you're saying."

I would say blame the guy closest to the call. It is part ego, but the other umpires possibly didn't get as good of a look at the play and trust their colleague to have gotten the call right. Umpires work as a team. There is absolutely a need for umpires to get together to get a call right, but if the first base umpire says a ball hit down the line is foul and the home plate umpires thinks, but doesn't know, it was fair should he overrule him? I would say, "yes," but a certain point an umpiring team has to trust each other to get the calls right. So I blame the first base umpire mostly because he has the better view in a situation like this.

"The role of the umpire is not to control the game and all that stuff you hear. The role of the umpire is to make sure one team doesn't take advantage of the other, so the game is played fairly."

Yes, to an extent this is the role of the umpire. The umpire is there to control the pace of the game and to control what goes on during the game. So to an extent the umpire does control the game in quite a few ways.

For instance we've all played pick up games where you umpire and you cheat, not cheat, but you make calls in your favor.

No, that is pretty much cheating.

The umpire is there to make sure the game is played fairly and one team doesn't take advantage of the other."


We are arguing the same thing, where Joe and I both think the umpiring needs to be better, but we have different views on what an umpire does. Obviously the umpire is a neutral observer of the game, but the umpire also controls the game in that he makes ball/strike calls, ensures meetings on the mound don't last too long, listen to player complaints and generally controls the flow and direction of the game in certain ways. I don't see their role as simply being there to make sure one team doesn't cheat.

I miss Joe Morgan. He should hire someone to start a website (since we know he probably wouldn't this himself) and do chats every week.

Friday, December 31, 2010

8 comments Doesn't Anyone Care About the Feelings of New York?

There is something really important that has gotten lost in the rejection of the Knicks and Yankees by LeBron James and Cliff Lee, and it is not the fact that JemeHill is still talking about LeBron James' decision to go to Miami six months after he made the decision. What's important is what this means for New York as a whole? Why don't these players want to come to New York on the biggest stage possible to get constantly critiqued and criticized by a reactionary media with their unreal expectations and constantly changing and never-ending criticisms?

It can't be possible that a player just doesn't want to play for the Knicks and Yankees, that's not possible at all, but their rejection of the city of New York means something is wrong with the city of New York or the players themselves. Fortunately, JemeHill gets to the bottom of this issue. She can't seem to fathom the idea that all other MLB and NBA cities in the bidding for James and Lee were also spurned. It's all about New York to her. If she could fathom it, she would only care by wondering what the other cities in MLB and the NBA being spurned meant for New York.

The day the New York Knicks officially announced they signed Amare Stoudemire to a $100 million contract, Knicks owner James Dolan characterized playing in New York City this way:

"We have to overpay players to get them come play for a team owned by me. Really, we've tried other options and I am so incompetent I can't seem to make the other options work."

"It takes courage to play where the lights shine the brightest," he said. "It takes leadership and character and competence to step up and say, 'I'll go first.' And it takes great skill to succeed in the No. 1 market."

In all other markets it takes zero skill and zero leadership to play. Pitching in Philadelphia? Piece of cake. Do they even have newspapers there? Probably not. There's no pressure on Cliff Lee to perform in Philadelphia, certainly not.

I'm not assaulting Lee's character or other intangibles, but it's hardly a secret that being a marquee player in New York City is just as challenging as it is rewarding.

It's also hardly a secret that being a marquee player in Philadelphia is also just as challenging as it is rewarding. It is not a secret that playing in Miami and being a marquee player is just as challenging as it is rewarding, especially when you open yourself up to criticism like LeBron James has done. I guess JemeHill thinks Miami is a small farming town located somewhere below the southern-most point of the United States, which to her is Pennsylvania. Yes, New York City is the biggest stage because it is the media capital of the United States, but there are other cities where there is pressure to perform well. Players not going to New York isn't a sign they don't want to face pressure.

It seems as though there is no longer an ironclad rule in sports that if athletes want to prove their mettle, they go to New York.

Morals in this country are eroding rapidly! I blame Obama!

Notice how JemeHill thinks it is a bad thing that athletes don't go to New York "to prove their mettle." She also probably thinks the Yankees should not be able to buy all of their players and there should be a salary cap in baseball. She wants all players to go to New York, but also wants the Yankees to quit getting all the best free agents.

Here's a brief list of free agents who have chosen New York over the last 2 years...just to show that not only is JemeHill dumb for thinking New York is the only place a player can prove their mettle, but she is also wrong. New York still becomes home to a good amount of talented free agents.

C.C. Sabathia
A.J. Burnett
Mark Teixeira
Raymond Felton
Amare Stoudemire
Jason Bay
Antrel Rolle
LaDainian Tomlinson
Jim Leonhard
Keith Bullock

This doesn't include a list of players who re-signed to play in New York and continue the effort to show their mettle on the largest stage. I won't list them but provided they are fairly large. Great players are still choosing New York, but it isn't a bad thing for sports if they weren't.

So what happened to that New York City mystique?

OMG! Panic! Where has the media-built mystique of playing in New York gone to?

"Our Plan B is patience," Yankees GM Brian Cashman told reporters during a conference call Tuesday.

Screw patience. There need to be moves made RIGHT NOW. These needs to be quick, knee-jerk moves the team will regret down the road. Nobody gives a shit about actual progress, but the illusion of progress is all JemeHill wants.

The sports fan in me would have loved to see Lee take on the psychological challenge of leading the Yankees to a World Series,

The sports fan in JemeHill doesn't want to watch Cliff Lee go against the Yankees in the playoffs again for the third straight year? I guess a World Series between the Phillies and Yankees isn't classified as "sports" in her mind.

particularly because it would have meant battling a reloaded Red Sox team,

Notice the tag I have that says, "ESPN thinsk there are only two teams in MLB?" I didn't create that tag for this post. It's an ongoing issue I find with ESPN's coverage of baseball. Any move that does harm to the only and most important rivalry in sports is seen as a bad thing. If it were up to JemeHill all available free agents would have to decide between playing for the Yankees or the Red Sox.

(Even though it does feel like that's the choice right now anyway)

I hope JemeHill knows the Yankees are still going to play a reloaded Red Sox team. These two teams will play quite a few games against each other this year. It is so irritating as a fan of sports to hear a sportswriter dismayed that Cliff Lee didn't do anything to further enhance the Red Sox/Yankees rivalry. It's not like Cliff Lee went to North Dakota to play baseball. He went to Philadelphia, which by all accounts appears to be a rather large city, not to mention a team that has made the World Series two of the last three years...but it is not New York so JemeHill is contractually obligated by ESPN to hate the move.

I would also argue very few things have done positive things for the NBA lately than LeBron playing for the Heat with Dwayne Wade and Chris Bosh. It gave many NBA fans an enemy to cheer against and has led to high ratings for Heat games against their rivals. Of course JemeHill doesn't care about what is good for the NBA, she cares that New York was rejected by LeBron. That's all that matters to her for some reason. Even those who live in New York and are Knicks fans may not understand her point of view.

but the realist in me understands that the psyche of today's professional athlete is centered on minimizing the possibility of failure.

Yes, because in a rotation with Roy Halladay, Roy Oswalt and Cole Hamels, there will be no focus on the performance of Cliff Lee in the mining town of Philadelphia, where there isn't a newspaper reporter in sight.

Certainly no athlete of any generation liked to fail, but athletes have so much exposure now that failure comes with a harsher stigma that smart athletes want to avoid.

Which is why LeBron James teamed up with Wade and Bosh to create an even larger stigma and focus on himself than if he had chosen any other team in free agency...including New York. If anything, James opened himself up to MORE criticism by choosing the Heat over the Knicks. If JemeHill thinks James is avoiding exposure to failure in Miami she isn't paying attention at all.

A star doesn't just fail a city today. He fails the world. He doesn't just fail at Yankee Stadium and in the New York tabloids. He fails on Twitter, Facebook and YouTube. Failures have become as memorable and lasting as successes.

I don't know if JemeHill is stupid or what, but Cliff Lee has joined a rotation that is being called "the best ever" and LeBron James was predicted to win 70+ games in Miami this year. How is this avoiding failure or staying away from unreal expectations?

Not every athlete is equipped or wants to be a savior.

Does avoiding that pressure make someone such as Lee a less dynamic player?

Because being the 2nd best pitcher on the Phillies is so much different from being the 2nd best pitcher on the Yankees. Lee is hiding from the world by signing with the Phillies and essentially guaranteeing the Phillies will be predicted to be in the World Series by 75% of baseball experts. A team being predicted to go to the World Series contains no pressure for Lee, I am sure.

It is idiocy, in fact it is journalistic malpractice, to say LeBron James and Cliff Lee avoided pressure in choosing the Heat and Phillies respectively. It's very, very, very not true.

Kevin Garnett spent 12 seasons in Minnesota trying to build the Timberwolves into a championship team, and ultimately, he became a Celtic because he grew sick of trying to learn from losing.

Garnett, who won an NBA title with the Celtics in his first season with the team, admitted after James chose Miami that he wished he had left Minnesota sooner.

This is something JemeHill constantly does. She either creates a false argument to prove as incorrect or she completely misses the point of something intentionally/unintentionally in order to prove her point.

Kevin Garnett didn't leave Minnesota because the spotlight wasn't enough, he left because the team was terrible. Cliff Lee and LeBron James didn't go from great teams to bad teams, so there is no lesson to be learned from his situation. It wasn't an issue of being out of the spotlight for Garnett, it was the issue of being on a team going nowhere.

"Loyalty is something that hurts you at times, because you can't get youth back," Garnett said. "I can honestly say that if I could go back and do my situation over, knowing what I know now with this organization, I'd have done it a little sooner."

What the hell does loyalty have to do with this discussion? Neither Lee or James re-signed with the teams they were on the season before. Try to convince a Cleveland Cavs fan that LeBron James was too loyal. I'd like to see that.

What Lee is required to do in Philly is magnitudes easier than what he'd have been expected to do in New York, where he and CC Sabathia would have anchored the staff and, win or lose, had every pitch scrutinized and second-guessed on TV, on radio, in print, online and at the corner bodega.

I bet there will be no second-guessing in Philadelphia...is that really want JemeHill believes? Has she ever paid attention to the Philadelphia media? This is just idiocy.

Shouldering the fate and fortune of an entire franchise and city has become an overrated experience for extraordinary talents like Lee, LeBron and even Alex Rodriguez, who ironically came to New York in 2004 for the same reason Lee and LeBron avoided New York.

I don't know if this is ironic or not. We may need a check on the definition of "irony."

I don't knock either Lee or LeBron for their choices, and they certainly aren't the only star athletes to say no to New York. After the 1992 season, Greg Maddux did the same thing, choosing the Atlanta Braves over pinstripes.

True. Maddux managed to avoid the spotlight by being considered one of the greatest pitchers of all-time and playing in three World Series in Atlanta. Boy, if he could do that decision over he would go to New York where the challenge of winning a title was greater and he would have become more of a household name. Whatever happened to Greg Maddux after he left the Cubs in 1992?

The real issue isn't who is saying no to New York but who is saying yes.

Yes, the city of New York should be concerned about this. With widespread and readily available media coverage of an elite player now an almost certainty no matter where he plays, how will sportswriters like JemeHill convince players the only place to get noticed is New York?

Lately, the only athlete who has been begging to come to New York is Carmelo Anthony. And before Anthony's back-channel pleas, the biggest free agent the Knicks had landed in some time was Stoudemire.

To JemeHill this isn't an indication of what players think about the Knicks or James Dolan, but an indication players don't want to carry a franchise on their back. Let's just ignore how dysfunctional the Knicks have been so JemeHill can prove a point.

Stoudemire and Anthony are terrific players. Stoudemire is having a marvelous season and has so far proved to be a good investment, returning the Knicks to basketball relevance. But both are also questionable leaders.

As seen by Anthony leading Syracuse to a National Championship as a freshman. That is questionable leadership at its best.

Is New York City still a desirable destination for bona fide, complete superstars such as Sabathia? Or is it now the preferred locale for wannabe, flawed or over-the-hill superstars such as Eli Manning and LaDainian Tomlinson?

Eli Manning was directly out of college when he went to New York. He also did not choose to play for the Giants, he just didn't want to play for the Chargers. That's just a minor detail of course when talking about the Giants as a "desirable destination" for Manning...the fact he wasn't anything but a rookie when he was traded to the Giants and he didn't exactly choose them more than he didn't want to choose San Diego.

Or even worse, is it for those who have no problem accepting failure?

Ooooooooooo...what a deep thought! Here's a deeper thought, maybe there are more attractive cities that also have a large media presence for players to choose when they are a free agent? Nah, that would never happen.

Friday, December 18, 2009

14 comments Jay Mariotti Fails To Understand Baseball Economics

Jay Mariotti is the type of sportswriter who really has no experience interviewing athletes in the locker room, writing in-depth articles about inside information or breaking stories in a sport, or even writing intelligently about a topic using statistics or any type of evidential backing. He gets paid to give his opinion and back it up with all the bluster he can manage. So when I see an article from Mariotti that says, "Phils Should Have Kept Halladay and Lee" I know it is an article I have to write about here.

The basic breakdown of the trade can be seen here. In a nutshell it is a good trade for Seattle, a risky trade for the Phillies, decent for the Blue Jays, and I have no idea why the Athletics got involved other than they must have really wanted Michael Taylor. So yes, it was a risk for the Phillies. They knew they probably could not sign Cliff Lee after this season and they really wanted Roy Halladay at the trade deadline last year, so they decided to go ahead and make the move to get him for this year.

Fortune favors the bold right? Well, the Phillies were bold and Jay Mariotti did not like it. He wants the Phillies to keep adding on payroll and take the chance of losing Cliff Lee in free agency and only being left with draft choices (which means they can't control exactly who is available when they pick, rather than choosing the prospects they get in a trade). I'm not a big Ken Rosenthal fan but he wrote an article about why the Phillies couldn't keep both Lee and Halladay. Reading each of the articles shows exactly why Rosenthal should be employed to talk about sports while Jay Mariotti should stick to condemning Tiger Woods and taking his vendettas out on others in his daily column. Writing this type column is over Mariotti's head.

It's good to know that the Phillies, Yankees, Red Sox and Mariners are doing big business this winter.

The Mariners essentially took on Lee so they could either trade him at the trade deadline for more prospects or get draft picks for him after he signs with a team after the season is over. The Mariners weren't even close to doing big business with an eye towards keeping Lee long term in my mind. The odds of Cliff Lee signing with the Mariners long-term is 15% in my book.

Jay Mariotti fails to understand simple baseball economics. Teams aren't losing money necessarily but teams are also having a hard time adding payroll for the upcoming year. The Yankees, Red Sox, and Phillies are also big market teams who can afford to do "big business" at this point in the offseason.

Major League Baseball is a 30-team enterprise, and, once again, we're left with the sort of competitive imbalance that basically eliminates two dozen teams from World Series title consideration weeks before pitchers and catchers report.

I don't know how one simple trade leads to the revelation that 24 teams are now eliminated from World Series contention. I would love to know Jay's list of teams that are still in the hunt for a World Series next year, but we won't get that because Mariotti is being a drama queen about the competitive balance problem in baseball and doesn't want to nail himself down by listing the 6 teams still in contention. The competitive balance in baseball is not great, but it's not so bad that 24 teams are automatically out of contention for the World Series in mid-December. Jay acts like the MLB season starts next week and not in 3 1/2 months.

I realize that this sport has been hit by the recession, too, but I also suspect some franchise owners are using the economic crisis as a convenient reason to cut costs and corners when, in truth, they have the money to make improvements. There is a dirty word for this collective financial inertia.

Fiscal responsibility? Not overspending on free agents early in the offseason?

Collusion.

Of course. The owners of MLB are colluding by not signing expensive free agents and making franchise altering trades before the new year. I would love to know what the point of the collusion between owners in this case is? Jay has already said the good teams in baseball have gotten better this offseason (or at least spent more money), are the owners colluding to ensure the Red Sox, Yankees, Mariners, or Phillies win the World Series this year? If not, then collusion makes no sense in this situation because if some of the teams are spending money and making trades to improve their and other teams are not because they don't want to spend money, that isn't collusion. That's just being cheap.

If NO teams were spending money and making moves I could understand how collusion is a possibility but the same teams that have always made moves are making moves this offseason. If anything, other MLB teams can be guilty of apathy, but not collusion. Not to mention THE SEASON DOESN'T EVEN START FOR ANOTHER 3 1/2 MONTHS. THERE IS STILL TIME FOR TEAMS TO MAKE MOVES LIKE SIGN FREE AGENTS AND MAKE TRADES.

So you'd better appreciate life in Philadelphia, the Bronx, Boston and Seattle, where recent days have brought significant maneuvers that all but ensure a successful 2010 in those places.

Have the Yankees gotten significantly better with the addition of Curtis Granderson? It looks that way, but we don't know yet. The Yankees need some more pitching too. Isn't Roy Halladay over Cliff Lee an upgrade, but not a huge upgrade? John Lackey was the feature pitcher in the free agent market this offseason but that doesn't mean he is going to be anymore than the #3 in the Red Sox rotation (behind Lester and Beckett). This doesn't mean he stinks but it's not exactly like Sabathia or Santana switching teams. Who the hell is going to hit the ball for Seattle with Lee pitching?

It's not like these teams don't have tough questions to answer about their upgrades. It's not necessarily smooth sailing for these teams right into the playoffs.

But here's the rub: Rather than pair up Halladay and Lee for even one season, which would have been one of the all-time dominant collaborations (think Sandy Koufax and Don Drysdale)

Gosh, I love Cliff Lee but we are talking about a 31 year old pitcher with 97 career wins and a 3.97 ERA. That's not exactly Sandy Koufax-ian career numbers for a 31 year old. Hell, Koufax was out of baseball by the age of 31. It shows Mariotti's lack of baseball knowledge to compare Halladay-Lee to Koufax-Drysdale as if there haven't been a better combination than Halladay-Lee in a pitching staff over the past 20 years.

How about (I am just thinking about left hand starter/right hand starter combinations, if we included pitchers who were as good as Halladay/Lee and played on the same team it would be a much longer list):

Maddux/Glavine
Pettitte/Clemens
Mulder/Hudson (Oakland A's days...if Lee can get credit for 2 straight great years, I can stretch a little and include these two pitchers)

There are probably 5 other LH/RH combinations that would be nearly as good as Lee and Halladay over the past 20 years. Not to take anything away from them, but do we really have to go back to Drysdale/Koufax for a good comparison?

and dramatically closed the competitive gap between the Phillies and champion Yankees, the Phillies used the deal to ship Lee -- sigh! -- to the Mariners.

The Phillies should not be incredibly concerned with closing the gap between them and the Yankees since the Yankees have won exactly 1 consecutive World Series and play in the American League while the Phillies play in the National League. It's not like the Yankees are a dynasty. I am sure the Phillies want to beat the New York Yankees if they meet again in the World Series, but I am pretty sure the Phillies aren't terribly concerned with making sure the gap between them and the Yankees is closed. The Phillies are more concerned with winning the NL East before anything else.

For months, the Blue Jays had been trying to pry away Philadelphia's best pitching prospect, Kyle Drabek, only to be rejected. Now, suddenly, the Phillies have relinquished Drabek in the Halladay deal, only to dump Lee when he still has a year remaining on his contract.

The Phillies relinquished Drabek for Halladay while giving up Lee, BUT they did get three prospects in return. Essentially the Phillies are betting the three prospects they gave up to get Cliff Lee from the Indians are not going to be as good as the three prospects they get back from the Mariners for Cliff Lee. If the prospects they get are better than the prospects they gave up, the Phillies have come out on top even absent Halladay's performance vs. Cliff Lee's performance for the upcoming year.

Keeping both Halladay and Lee was a non-go from the start, which Mariotti can't seem to understand...Ken Rosenthal explains why this wouldn't have worked for the Phillies:

The Phillies will receive $6 million from the Jays in the pending three-team trade, then subtract $9 million by sending Lee to the Mariners. Their net of $15 million will nearly cover Halladay’s $15.75 million salary for 2010 -- a near-wash.

So basically the Phillies spent $750,000 and added Roy Halladay (plus they signed Halladay to extension and he has been a better pitcher over his career than Lee) and three prospects to the roster (I realize all the prospects won't be on the roster this year) for this year in exchange for Cliff Lee and three prospects. It's a risk, but not a huge risk.

But the Phillies’ owners stretched the payroll for ‘09 by extending the contracts of several of their own stars, signing free-agent left fielder Raul Ibanez and adding Lee at the July 31 non-waiver deadline.

There is a limit, particularly when the team still needs bullpen help.

This is another part of baseball economics, or baseball in general, Mariotti fails to understand. The Phillies still have to spend money to improve their team so increasing payroll by nearly $16 million and giving up 7 prospects for a one year run doesn't make sense when the team will need to spend more money to shore up the bullpen. The Phillies are smart, they can't just look at the short term, they have to also look long term.

As far as Mariotti's criticism that the Phillies were giving up the same thing they offered last summer for Halladay, it's plain wrong.

Remember, the Jays are sending the Phillies $6 million. The idea of including such a sum, from the Jays’ perspective, is to buy better players. The Phillies were not receiving any money last July when they refused to part with either Drabek or Brown for Halladay.

That $6 million dollars can buy at least a reliever and a half on the free agent market. I personally can't believe the Blue Jays threw in $6 million into the deal, they were already giving up their ace pitcher without getting back the Phillies #1 prospect, Dominic Brown.

Enough with the sane arguments, let's get back to Mariotti's criticism of the trade and lack of understanding for baseball economics.

Uh, why not just keep Lee for his final season while giving Halladay the contract extension he reportedly has accepted: a guaranteed $60 million for three years and a 2014 vesting option of $20 million?

Because the Phillies would not have had the money to sign bullpen help for this year and then run the risk of losing Lee in free agency for two prospects (not three like they got back) in a draft. The Phillies were able to choose their prospects by trading with the Mariners. No one said it wasn't a risk, but economically it makes sense.

So even if the Phillies knew they could afford only one or the other for the long term, they could have kept Lee -- who reportedly was making waves about wanting a contract similar to the $161-million pact signed by his friend and former Cleveland partner in Cy Young crime, C.C. Sabathia -- and undoubtedly been the favorites to win the World Series.

The Phillies could have done that and they chose not to because they could not expand more payroll for this one year. I don't know why Jay Mariotti thinks the free agent signing period is over, there is still plenty of time for the Phillies to sign other players to shore up weak spots on the roster. The Phillies have taken a long term view in this trade. Time will tell if it works out or not.

Instead, the Phillies are no better than they were when they lost the Series to the Yankees in six games: a special pitcher at the top of the rotation and a lot of question marks after him, including
Cole Hamels, who was last heard verbally blowing off the season before the Series actually was over.

I think it is true the Phillies are not much better for this season than last season at this point, but they are in better shape for the 2010 season because they have Halladay locked up to a long term deal. Somehow Jay Mariotti forgets the Phillies won a World Series in 2008 with Cole Hamels as the anchor of the pitching staff and this year he is the 2nd best pitcher on the staff (just like last year when the Phillies made the World Series and Hamels had a "bad" year). I don't think one bad year is going to cause me to write him off and it shouldn't cause anyone else to write him off either.

But at the major league level, they are no better next season while the Yankees and Red Sox clearly have improved themselves.

Have the Yankees improved? They still have Sabathia, an injury prone starter and a 37 year old as the top three starters in their rotation. They have a better centerfielder in Curtis Granderson but now have a hole in LF since they haven't re-signed Johnny Damon. Not to mention the fact the Yankees weakened their starting pitching and bullpen depth with the Granderson trade by getting rid of Phil Coke and Ian Kennedy. I honestly can't say they have drastically improved themselves yet.

Sorry, but I've never understood why a franchise prioritizes the future over its precious present.

Says the exact same guy who has absolutely beaten up the Yankees in the past for trading for expensive players and signing expensive players in lieu of building a good team through the farm system. When it comes to the Phillies, Jay Mariotti is all about buying players and not worrying about tomorrow, yet earlier in this exact same column he bitched about the competitive imbalance of the league, which is partially caused by teams trading for big name and big money players.

GO FOR THE JUGULAR when you have the chance, when you're clearly the best team in a National League that finds the Dodgers in a divorce-driven fire sale, the Mets lamely remaining idle while the Yankees dominate the back pages, the Cubs not doing much in the infancy of their new ownership and the Cardinals playing their usual payroll games in middle America.

DAMN YOU ST. LOUIS CARDINALS WITH YOUR MIDDLE AMERICAN VALUES THAT REFUSE TO ALLOW YOU TO PAY $16 MILLION (or more) FOR AN OUTFIELDER THAT DIDN'T HELP YOUR TEAM GET INTO THE NLCS LAST YEAR! How dare you not overpay for players in an attempt to keep up with the Phillies who are trying to keep up with the Yankees! How will Major League Baseball ever attain competitive balance if teams don't overspend every winter on free agents that will cause potential payroll problems for the team in the future??? DON'T YOU KNOW OUTSPENDING EVERY OTHER TEAM IS THE ONLY WAY TO KEEP THE COMPETITIVE BALANCE IN BASEBALL????

Plus, the Phillies don't know if their prospects will pan out. They don't know if their prospects will remain healthy.

Plus the Blue Jays don't know if the prospects they got in the trade will pan out either, so just by doing a little math, if the three prospects the Phillies don't know if the prospects they received will pan out and the Blue Jays don't know if the prospects they received will pan out we have essentially a Cliff Lee for Roy Halladay trade...which is a wash except for the fact Halladay signed an extension already and Lee hasn't...and Jay Mariotti has no point.

In fact, if push came to shove, I might have picked Lee over Halladay --

I would never pick Cliff Lee over Roy Halladay. You can call me crazy or stupid, I don't care. I like Roy Halladay over Cliff Lee. Especially if the Phillies are really worried about keeping up with the Yankees because Roy Halladay is 18-6 with a 2.84 ERA and 1.112 WHIP in his career against the Yankees.

See?

particularly if Lee's agent, Darek Braunecker, is being honest when he says he made no demands for Sabathia-type money and that Lee dearly wanted to remain in Philadelphia for the rest of his career.

Because agents are well-known for their complete honesty and willingness to set the market for their free agents before that player has gotten an offer or ever actually been on the market. Brilliant reasoning by Mariotti.

Instead, the winner of the Yankees-Red Sox scrum will prevail in the Series next October/November, with the once-straggling Mariners in position to make the playoffs by teaming Lee with Felix Hernandez atop the rotation and reaping the versatile benefits of new signee Chone Figgins.

Anyone who thinks the Mariners solution to their hitting woes is Chone Figgins is sorely mistaken and also underestimating the fact there is still 3 1/2 months until the baseball season starts and the current AL West division winner, the Angels, haven't started making any moves.

The Cardinals probably will re-sign Matt Holliday, who isn't receiving the offers he expected after his postseason fielding blunder and may sign for less money than he rejected last year in Colorado.

I am sure it is that one error in the NLDS that is holding Holliday back and not the fact he wasn't that great of a hitter in Oakland and teams really aren't keen on spending many millions on a player that may end up being just an almost-great hitting outfielder. He's a great outfielder but is he great enough to get $150 million?

But the Red Sox aren't done, either, as they eye third baseman Adrian Beltre and have a $15.5 million offer on the table to Aroldis Chapman, the lefty pitcher from Cuba. And that means the Yankees aren't done, as well, making these teams the two biggest winners.

What the Red Sox and the Yankees are doing is almost completely negligible in regards to the Phillies. There are 100 different things that need to happen before the Phillies would play either of these teams in the World Series. Does Jay Mariotti know the Yankees/Red Sox and Phillies play in different leagues? I am not sure he is aware of this. The Phillies won't be fighting Boston or the New York Yankees for a playoff spot this year.

For all the grousing about too much East Coast-axis emphasis on this rivalry, it's still the best theater in the sport, by far trumping whatever the Yankees and Phillies gave us.

Philadelphia is still on the East Coast. They are an East Coast team and the World Series between the Phillies and Yankees was an East Coast World Series. Maybe Philadelphia is not exactly on the East Coast, but neither are the New York Yankees. Someone needs an old fashioned geography lesson.

They've re-signed Andy Pettitte, which aligns an imposing postseason rotation that also included Sabathia and A.J. Burnett.

Imposing? Those three pitchers pitched well this year but during the season the Yankees are still going to need two other pitchers to step up in the starting rotation and I am not sure they knew who exactly that will be at this point. For some reason Jay Mariotti forgets the Yankees have to MAKE the playoffs before they can play in the ALCS against the Red Sox.

But next winter, they simply can sign Lee to replace Pettitte.

As can the Phillies sign Lee to replace a pitcher they don't want anymore.

General manager Brian Cashman pretended as if he was torn. "We're excited about what we're getting, and we're distraught about what we gave up at the same time," he said. "It's a tough decision. You're trading the future for here and now."

Anyone remember the Kevin Brown trade or the Randy Johnson trade? That was also the Yankees trading the future for here and now. How did those trades work out for them?

Here and now is where we are. Remember that if the Yankees win their 28th championship and the Phillies are also-rans again.

Jay Mariotti just stated earlier in this column the Phillies were the favorite to win the National League. Based on this, I wouldn't call a third straight appearance in the World Series to be something "also-rans" have accomplished. Making another World Series and losing that World Series is not a sign the Phillies are "also-rans."

And Cliff Lee is 3,000 miles away.

The Phillies made a risk by trading Lee for Halladay like they did, but it's a risk they felt they had to take. I know it sounds sexy to say the Phillies should have kept Lee and Halladay just for one year, but the Phillies know they couldn't do that because they had other needs on the roster that needed to be fixed. Not to mention if the Phillies had kept Cliff Lee and Roy Halladay, stupid sportswriters like Jay Mariotti would have called them cheap for not re-signing Lee after the season was over. If anything has happened the Phillies have basically made a trade that is a wash, which means they could be due to get back in the World Series where pretty much anything can happen in a 7 game series.

Mariotti doesn't have a clear grasp on baseball economics and strategy because he thinks the Yankees have a wonderful rotation built around an injury prone pitcher and a 37 year old that can't be stopped in the World Series. In truth, the Yankees need to worry about who the other two starters are going to be for them before we all go ahead and put them back in the World Series. The Phillies simply couldn't afford to keep Lee AND fix their bullpen and some of the other roster issues they had. I know Jay doesn't like this but if he took a second to think about the reasoning behind this trade (which will never happen) instead of just spouting his opinion off, he could possibly see why it was made. It's a risk, but I don't think it is a bigger risk than is necessary.