Showing posts with label gambling. Show all posts
Showing posts with label gambling. Show all posts

Friday, October 9, 2015

4 comments Gregg Easterbrook Warns of The Dangers of Gambling

Gregg Easterbrook talked about, stop me if you have heard this one before, how NFL coaches are too conservative and should go for it on fourth down in last week's TMQ. He also continued to write "N.F.L." because I know that he knows it annoys me. This week Gregg takes on fantasy football and alerts his readers to the fact these gambling sites are, and pleased don't be too shocked, not not-for-profit and they are probably going to end up taking your money. Apparently these Internet sites that feature fantasy football are actually businesses and it's set up to where suckers spend money on the sites, but don't end up winning money. I know, I was shocked after seeing the commercials that promised me I could make from $300 to $100 billion (okay, not that much) betting on fantasy sports. I thought these sites like DraftKings and FanDuel were only set up to make me rich. Thank God that Gregg is here to set the record straight.

A decade ago, I worked in a big building in downtown Washington. Every Thursday during N.F.L. season, a smiling guy would come around to distribute sheets for the office football pool. You’d make your picks, hand the guy $5 and not win. Neither would anyone else you knew.

Based on having read TMQ for a better part of a decade, I think a good guess as to why neither Gregg nor his co-workers won is because they are terrible at gambling and generally don't understand football. Also, if you know you are going to lose then why are you gambling? Don't complain if you kept handing the guy your money.

The next Thursday the guy would be back with another sheet. At the bottom was an entry for who, supposedly, won the previous week — but names at the bottom were always smudged and illegible.

Fool Gregg once, shame on you. Fool Gregg repeatedly over a several week span, just keep doing it since he's probably not going to catch on. But rest assured, when does catch on he will lecture his TMQ readers about the dangers of gambling as if they are as naive and gullible as he was.

After a while it dawned on me that I never met anyone in the building who received the pool money.

It took you a while to figure it out? This must have been a really big building with a lot of employees participating in this pool. Maybe I'm a control freak, but I don't tend to give money to "the guy" and I generally like to know the person who won the pool of money. This is especially true if I work in a huge building where I don't know very many of the other people who work in the building.

We all see where this story is going of course. Because Gregg, a person who considers himself to be very intelligent, got scammed by people pretending he can win money then that means people who are not as smart as Gregg are even more susceptible to the dangers of gambling. Gregg is SO SMART and everyone else is SO DUMB. They stand no chance.

I thought of the smiling guy Monday, when FanDuel and DraftKings defended their integrity after accusations of what amounts to insider trading. I always wondered if that office pool could be trusted. Perhaps now we should wonder the same about DraftKings and FanDuel.

No, it can't totally be trusted. It's not a charity. It's an opportunity to separate you from your money and put your money in the pocket of someone else. It's gambling where the company accepting the money is making money. Hence, more people will lose than win. It's like any other gambling venture. There's no mystery behind it. They want to lure you in with the prospect of making money when most people don't make money.

NFL Network’s highlights channel is now “N.F.L. RedZone Presented by DraftKings.” ESPN’s “Monday Night Football” now has a “FanDuel Chalk Talk” segment.

This season, fans can sip cocktails and place wagers at FanDuel or DraftKings lounges in pro football stadiums.

It's shocking that the NFL has partnered with two companies willing to give them money in order to advertise their product, which is a product based on the performance of NFL players. How dare the NFL promote gambling for money. I'm shocked they would do this. Usually the NFL is so sure to stay on the morally correct side of social issues. 

As of Sunday, Aaron Rodgers, Andrew Luck and Peyton Manning were, in a sense, endorsing Internet gambling: DraftKings just signed a deal with the N.F.L. Players Association, giving the union a fee in return for use of pro football players’ images in the company’s ads. Washington-area Metro buses now bear DraftKings side banners.

These players are not endorsing gambling. The NFLPA is endorsing gambling and these three players are simply members of the NFLPA. I guess Rodgers, Luck and Manning could choose not to be a member of the NFLPA as a result, but I'm sure their image has been used for reasons much more nefarious than Internet gambling. These three quarterbacks are, in a sense, endorsing Internet gambling in the same way that Gregg Easterbrook is, in a sense, endorsing plagiarism because he works at the same newspaper that Jayson Blair worked for. These three quarterbacks are, in a sense, endorsing Internet gambling in the same way that Gregg Easterbrook supports women bringing spousal abuse on themselves because he used to work at ESPN with Stephen A. Smith. 

Both ventures have extensive Fortune 500 support: back to that in a moment. First, the glitz. FanDuel: “$75 million paid out every week!” DraftKings: “$1 billion in prizes in 2015!” FanDuel vows to distribute $2 billion in winnings during the N.F.L. season; DraftKings vows a weekly $1 million grand prize.

Promises of big winnings made in order to draw more people in to get more people to get involved with weekly fantasy sports. DraftKings and FanDuel aren't charities, so any reasonable person knows they are making money in the same way a casino makes money. Somebody has to lose. 

In a FanDuel television ad, a man — viewers have no idea whether he’s an actor — says to the camera, “Every single week I can win money on Fan Duel!” Can is quite a fudge word: Statements of this nature would not pass scrutiny in breakfast-cereal advertising.

But the use of the word "can" would pass scrutiny in TMQ, because Peter uses some form of this word all the time in order to fudge the truth just a little bit. How many times has Gregg written something like, "Continued use of punting on fourth down could result in the Football Gods being angered and Team X not making the playoffs."

Of all the people to criticize the use of words like "can" or "could" it's Gregg Easterbrook who chooses to do so. He very well could be a bit of a hypocrite, given how many qualifying statements he has made in his TMQ in the past, present and could be future.

I asked both companies for the names of big winners. Sabrina Macias, head of corporate communications for DraftKings, suggested David Gomes, a 2014 big winner; it’s him celebrating in the DraftKings ad. When I asked for more names, Macias said, “We have had 20 winners of $1 million prizes.” She promised to get back to me with a list of those names, and never did.

Emily Bass, public relations manager for FanDuel, suggested Scott Hanson, “Scott H.,” a 2014 big winner. When I asked for more names, Bass said her company has “a huge number” of big winners. She promised to get back to me with a list of names, and never did.

There is also a sense of privacy in whose information FanDuel and DraftKings can just hand out to whoever asks for it. Gregg knows this of course, but doesn't seem to really give a shit. The fact these two companies won't just hand out a person's information is seen as another strike against their transparency and not as an example of how they are committed to keeping the information of those who participate confidential. It can be both of course. Both companies can lack transparency and still protect the identity of those who play online fantasy sports. 

Naturally, many who win lawfully at gambling would prefer their identities not be disseminated.

Naturally, many people who win or lose at gambling would prefer their identities not be disseminated. Naturally, people don't want some half-assed football journalist finding out how much they have won or lost on gambling. 

Thus neither company offers anything, beyond its say-so, backing up the advertising. What about the experiences of David Gomes and Scott Hanson?

I mean, this is pretty much how gambling works. I don't know if I could find out everyone who won money in the North Carolina State Lottery or go to a casino in Las Vegas and get a list of people who won $1 million or more over the last 12 months. Maybe I could, but my expectation would be that I could not. 

Gomes, 25, grew up in Boston, is studying to be a physician assistant, and reports that he wisely saved the after-tax portion of his $1 million prize. His big payday came last season, from selecting New England’s Jonas Gray for a fantasy team days before the undrafted free agent ran for a surprising 201 yards and four touchdowns against Indianapolis.

Then he ran for 210 yards and 1 touchdown over the rest of the season. But Gomes will insist this was NOT luck. Not at all. It's his discerning eye that helped him win $1 million. 

“Sure there was luck involved, but this wasn’t just a wild guess,” Gomes said. “Gray caught my eye in training camp, and the Colts were weak against the rush in 2014. So it was a calculated risk.

Gray "caught his eye" in training camp and then I'm sure Gomes was more impressed by Gray's performance on the practice squad. It may not have been a wild guess, but Gray had a grand total of 32 carries prior to the Colts game. So there was more than "some" luck involved if we are being honest. 

With online fantasy sports, yes it’s gambling, but you watch the games and know for sure whether your choices were good or not. This is more honest to the public than lotteries based on random numbers.”

As much as I abhor the FanDuel and DraftKings advertising that is everywhere, I can agree with this to an extent. I see where a person could believe this to be true, because it feels like you have more control when you choose specific players to play each week. Compared to choosing numbers in a lottery, it feels like you choose players who you can then follow and grade yourself on how you did. The issue comes in when a person doesn't know what players the other competitors have chosen. So online fantasy sports is more honest in that it's more transparent on how your team is graded, but it's not transparent when it comes to the players the other competitors chose. It's gambling. The house always wins.

Hanson lives in Pasadena, Calif., was an elementary schoolteacher for a while, worked as a sports analyst for the analytics website ProFootballFocus, and this year is playing daily fantasy sports full-time. Hanson’s insight late in the 2014 season was to select little-known Cincinnati tailback Jeremy Hill when the Bengals were facing the Browns and the erratic rookie quarterback Johnny Manziel.

"Little known Cincinnati Jeremy Hill." Jeremy Hill was a second round pick by the Bengals and was considered to be a sleeper in 2014 fantasy sports or a great handcuff for Gio Bernard. He wasn't really "little known." He was known and drafted in any fantasy league deeper than 8 teams with 2 RB's and 3 FLEX spots. But whatever, Gregg. Whatever.

“FanDuel and DraftKings are more like stock investing than you’d probably expect, including the need to diversify,” Hanson said. “Don’t wager a lot unless you really know what you are doing. If you’re just in it for some fun, don’t spend more than $20.”

Hey, there is some fucking logic. If you don't want to lose a lot of money, don't gamble. Therein lies the moral to this story, except that won't cover enough column space, even in a much smaller TMQ. So Gregg has to go on and on about how online fantasy sports (which I don't play and won't be playing because I like my money) take money away from people while misleading them into believing they have a chance to win. A fool and his money soon go separate ways, so yes, they do take money from players, but those playing know the risks. Don't bet a lot of money if you don't want to lose a lot of money. 

Gomes and Hanson converted their smarts into winnings — though both say they are down so far this season.

The. House. Always. Wins. Always. 

FanDuel and DraftKings are run by plucky entrepreneurs, the type of people society rightly admires. On the flip side, both enterprises are using national television, and the imprimatur of the highly subsidized N.F.L., to make incredible promises while leaving the public no way of knowing whether the claims are true — and while tempting the unsophisticated to throw their money out the window.

Ah yes, "the unsophisticated." That's all Gregg is doing. He's looking out for those who can't look out for themselves. I understand in part. People look at those ads and think, "I can win money TOO! I can be a millionaire and all I have to do is play!" These people are either idiots or degenerate gamblers. If they are idiots, there is no helping them and they will most likely walk out into traffic or do something stupid to permanently end their stupidity. If they are degenerate gamblers then their loved ones need to find them some help. Why is it Gregg's business or concern these people spend their money gambling? 

These ads will always make it seem like more people win than actually do. I'm not a smart person, but I know there will always be 2-3 examples of winners in the commercials, as opposed to the 1000-2000 examples of the losers, because FanDuel and DraftKings want to make money. People participate if they think they are going to win. People who think they are going to win at gambling are most likely wrong. That is why I don't gamble. Even those who do gamble probably know they won't win every time. I know Gregg is deeply worried about society and "the unsophisticated" but even many of the unsophisticated know they aren't going to always win.

David Brooks contends that most gambling targets those who can’t afford to lose. Neil Irwin of The Upshot, in contrast, thinks that legalizing wagering on point spreads would improve the situation for small-money players.

The business model of FanDuel and DraftKings — and others entering the market — makes sense only if most players lose money.

This is logical because the money that needs to be handed out has to come from the losers. These winners are also "the unsophisticated," which further encourages other unsophisticated people to participate because Bill down the street doesn't know shit about fantasy sports and he won $1500 last week. It's been this way for years and there is probably no changing it. 

DraftKings and FanDuel seduce men and women into a dream of instant wealth. A handful do achieve instant wealth; for most, this dream only worsens inequality. And should the N.F.L., which draws about $1 billion annually in taxpayers’ money, be encouraging average people to gamble even more — that is, to lose even more?

They encourage average people to spend $100 on a uniform, have them spend $7 on a bottle water, $5 for nachos and as much as humanly possible in order to get a ticket to a football game for the privilege of spending $7 on a bottled water, so why wouldn't they encourage average people to gamble more? I'm sure that's their point of view. It's a good way to gain synergy between fantasy sports and the NFL. Fans bet on NFL players and have the chance to win money.

I'm not defending FanDuel and DraftKings, but many, many people go to Las Vegas or Atlantic City every year to gamble and end up losing money. If the NFL feels it is morally correct to be involved with online fantasy sports then that is the decision of the league. It's not less morally incorrect than for the NFL to have an official beer or for Joe Girardi to talk about C.C. Sabathia going to rehab in front of a Budweiser sign. Gregg is under the assumption that anyone who participates in online fantasy sports are stupid and have no idea what they are getting themselves into. I know people who do online fantasy sports and they aren't all stupid. They know they probably won't win, but do it for the fun they can have. Maybe they win money, maybe they won't.

Professional sports leagues like the N.B.A. and M.L.B., and individual N.F.L. teams including the Cowboys seem to see a chance to seize the vigorish now collected by bookies and Las Vegas.

It annoys the shit out of me how Gregg puts periods between "N" "F" and "L" and between "M" "L" and "B." I will try to re-focus though. 

“Just pick your game, pick your team and pick up your winnings,” a DraftKings ad declares. 

Anyone with a brain knows it's not that easy. Just in the same way anyone with a brain knows that delicious cheeseburger the model is biting into in the Hardees commercials doesn't come with the model and the burger will be flattened to the point it's almost impossible to tell all the ingredients apart. Just in the same way a child knows if they buy Frosted Flakes, Tony the Tiger isn't actually going to show up and start playing soccer with him/her. It's advertising that is being used to encourage the purchase of a product. Much in the same way Gregg doesn't understand advertising for a Christmas stage show in November isn't "creep," but is instead an attempt to sell tickets far advance in the hopes of selling out, he doesn't understand that many "unsophisticated" people understand how advertising works. Yet, they still participate in online fantasy sports because it is fun.

But set the phoniness aside: DraftKings and FanDuel wouldn’t make business sense to Comcast, Fox, Google, Time Warner and pro sports owners unless the websites allow participants quickly and conveniently to use their smartphones to lose money.

Right, nobody wants to play any online fantasy sport "for fun" and it should be a huge pain in the ass to play that online fantasy sport. Because these online fantasy sports are for fun, using the sites is made convenient so it's more fun and less frustrating. 

In other football news, what to make of the 4-0 contenders?

If only the NFL season didn't stop after Week 4 with no resolution as to which of these 4-0 contenders will stand the test of the season and which will not. Alas, Gregg is only left to speculate.

Cincinnati is playing really well, and on a 16-2-1 home streak in the regular season. But the Bengals are also on an 0-3 playoff home streak; Andy Dalton has never quarterbacked a playoff win; and Marvin Lewis is 0-6 in the postseason. The last time Cincinnati was victorious in the playoffs, Dan Quayle was vice president. Bengals, call back when you win a contest in January.

So what to make of the Bengals is that Gregg has absolutely no fucking clue what to make of the Bengals and he's going to need to see the rest of the NFL season before he can declare the Bengals as pretenders or contenders. Why even bring up the Bengals if Gregg isn't willing to give his opinion on what to make of them? Though, this is in-line with how Gregg pretty much evaluates anything. He waits until there is resolution and then declares something as being a good or bad idea. He'll make up lies about the reasons why it was good or bad at that point.

"I know I say teams should go for it on fourth down because it shows a commitment to winning, but here is why this fourth down attempt didn't end up helping Team X win the game."

Carolina, a losing team in 2014, is 4-0 so far in 2015. But the victories are over second-echelon teams that are a combined 4-12. Panthers, call back when you beat a winning team.

I can agree with this, but these teams would have been 8-8 if the Panthers had lost to them. There is such a small sample size that the Panthers beating these four teams skews the combined record of the teams they have beaten. 

Atlanta has a signature victory at Dallas, a much-improved offensive line and a much-improved defense. Falcons faithful should be guardedly optimistic.

The Falcons have beaten four teams who are a combined 6-10. So I guess those two extra victories are really, really impressive to Gregg to where the Falcons haven't played a second-echelon schedule. 

Denver began in plodding fashion; Peyton Manning now seems to be picking up the bootleg offense of Gary Kubiak. Below the radar: The Broncos’ secondary has allowed only two touchdown passes.

Yes, "below the radar" the Broncos defense is playing really, really well. NOBODY IS NOTICING THIS EXCEPT FOR GREGG! DON'T DO A GOOGLE SEARCH FOR "DENVER BRONCOS DEFENSE" AND JUST TRUST GREGG'S WORD IS TRUTH!

Stat That Must Mean Something. Only three of the N.F.L.’s top 10 rushing teams have winning records.

It could mean four of these teams have quarterbacks who are known for running with the football. It could mean only two of the NFL's worst 10 rushing teams have winning records, which is some research that Gregg is lazy to do. It could mean a balanced offense is a great way to win games. 

’Tis Better to Have Rushed and Lost Than Never to Have Rushed at All. Trailing Indianapolis, 3-0, the Jaguars faced third-and-goal on the Colts’ 2 and went incompletion, field goal. Jacksonville entered having lost five straight to Indianapolis — half-measures won’t change that! The Jaguars went on to lose in overtime.

And of course they went on to lose in overtime because of this one play where the Jaguars went for a field goal as opposed to a touchdown. There is an obvious correlation there. They averaged 5.1 yards per rush on the day, so the Jaguars would have run the ball in the end zone with 3.1 yards to spare from the two-yard line. So ignore the fact the Jaguars kicker missed two field goals in the game, that's irrelevant to whether they would have won the game, but focus instead on their decision to go for a field goal instead of a touchdown. THAT is why the Jaguars didn't beat the Colts. 

Stop Me Before I Blitz Again! Steelers leading, 20-17, with 29 seconds showing, Baltimore faced third-and-10 on its 48. Getting a sack is a nice outcome for Pittsburgh, but what matters more is two incomplete passes. Instead it’s a double defensive back blitz: 20-yard completion, Baltimore kicks a field goal to force overtime and wins in the fifth quarter. Good quarterbacks want to be blitzed on third-and-long, because it ensures single-coverage downfield.

And if the Steelers just rush four and give Joe Flacco time to throw the ball, there is no way he completes a pass to get them into field goal range. That's what Gregg wants his readers to believe. This is the assumption Gregg is working under. Also, I don't know if there is such a thing as a "double defensive back blitz." Maybe there is, it sounds like it was a corner and/or safety blitz. 
And no, blitzing on third-and-long doesn't ensure single-coverage downfield. The Steelers could blitz six defenders and then still have the receivers downfield doubled with a safety/linebacker and a cornerback. It's entirely possible. But of course Gregg makes these blanket statements and just expects his readers to believe them. Why wouldn't they? He only speaks the truth.

Stop Me Before I Blitz Again! (Team Edition). Last season the Bills employed a highly disciplined defense that almost never blitzed, and finished fourth over all on defense against points, first against touchdown passes. The analytical Jim Schwartz ran this successful defense. In comes the boastful Rex Ryan with a blitz-happy approach and no discipline. The Bills have dropped to 22nd over all on defense and 30th against touchdown passes.

Could this be as a result of the Bills having played the Patriots, Giants, Colts, and Dolphins? The Patriots are #1 in the NFL in passing yards right now. Also, Gregg is cherry-picking his data. The Bills' defense is 3rd in rushing yards against, 14th in points per game allowed and 9th in third down percentage against. 

Facing fourth-and-1, the Bills lined up to go for it. Tyrod Taylor tried a hard count to draw the Giants offside. The Bills jumped offside.

No Gregg, when the offense jumps like this it is called a "false start." The defense is who goes offsides, not the offense. 

Didn’t You Used to Be the 49ers? After the 2011, 2012 and 2013 seasons, the 49ers made the N.F.C. title game, once reaching the Super Bowl and goal-to-go for victory. In 2014 they tailed off, and in 2015 are awful. Santa Clara has been outscored by a league-worst 62 points.

I'm sure Gregg believes this is all because they moved to that new stadium in Santa Clara and not because they fired Jim Harbaugh. What would getting rid of the best coach the 49ers had in 20 years have anything to do with the 49ers current struggles? 

Dawn of the Notcronym. Last week I noted that KFC no longer stands for Kentucky Fried Chicken, and NPR no longer stands for National Public Radio: “Contemporary short-attention-span names like KFC are not acronyms, because the letters don’t stand for anything. We live in an age when not standing for anything is seen as a plus.” Then I asked readers what term should be used for constructions such as SAT or 3M, which appear to be acronyms but aren’t because they do not represent words.

One would think now that TMQ has been shortened then Gregg could cut any content that doesn't have to do with football or the NFL. Instead, TMQ can still be found to have the same filler. 

Jeff Wilson of Front Royal, Va., proposed noncronym. Ross Stinemetz of Kansas City, Mo., suggested slackronym. Morris Bird of San Gabriel, Calif., came up with noniker. Jeff Williams of Wisconsin Rapids, Wis., suggested jargonon.

I suggest these people get a life and stop emailing their ideas to Gregg Easterbrook. 

Jim Kelly of Ann Arbor, Mich., wrote: “Perhaps we can call them Trumans in honor of our 33rd president, whose middle name, S, was simply a letter, signifying nothing.”

Or you could just not talk about these acronyms that don't mean anything at all and focus on writing about football so I can make fun of the fact you think you are know what you are talking when you really don't.

Chip Kelly Skedaddle Watch. Chip Kelly lived a dreamlike existence in Eugene, Ore., a glorious place where he was revered by students, alumni and local media, and won game after game by huge margins. In the N.F.L., Kelly’s Eagles (1-3) are struggling, and the media knives soon will be pointed at his back.

"Soon" be pointed at Chip Kelly's back? Where the fuck has Gregg Easterbrook been over the past two weeks? The knives have been sharpened and pointed already. The media is just waiting to pounce. It sounds like Gregg lives his own dreamlike existence if he doesn't know that the media is already all over Chip Kelly for the Eagles' failings.

When Kelly came to the N.F.L., he was one step ahead of the posse that imposed a show-cause penalty on him for recruiting violations. But that punishment has expired. How long till Kelly skedaddles back to the comfort of a football-factory situation?

Kelly coaches for football-factories until it is convenient for Gregg to point out that offensive innovations don't occur at football-factories, while citing Chip Kelly's innovations at the non-football-factory University of New Hampshire as evidence of this. Kelly coaches at football-factories until Gregg has a different point to prove. 
And Kelly probably will go back to college football if he fails in the NFL, just in the same way TMQ went back to another non-sports website after Gregg didn't have his contract renewed by ESPN. It's okay for Gregg to fall back on what he knows when he fails, but when Chip Kelly does that then it means he is open to derision from Gregg.

Steelers and Ravens Combine to Go 1 for 6 on Fourth Down. 

So based on the knowledge Gregg has previously passed on, this means that both teams won the game because both coaches showed their team that they were super-serious about winning the game? Right, that's how it works? 

Baltimore at Pittsburgh was Armageddon for the go-for-it crowd, which includes this column: In overtime Pittsburgh went for it twice on fourth-and-short, was stopped both times, and lost.

But I'm sure Gregg has a bullshit explanation for why Mike Tomlin was aggressive and told his team he was playing to win the game and the Steelers still lost. Even when Gregg's assertions are proven to be incorrect, it's never that his assertion is incorrect, there is always a bullshit reason given as to why his assertion is correct all the time but just not this time. 

Then again Baltimore went for it twice on fourth-and-short, was stopped both times, and won. On a windy night at Heinz Field, the toughest N.F.L. stadium for place-kickers, both defenses expected fourth-and-short tries and were primed to stop them.

Oh, okay. So the defenses were primed to stop the running game on fourth down and THAT is why these conversions didn't work? I figured there was a bullshit reason, but now I know that reason. The Ravens averaged 4.9 yards per carry and Steelers averaged 5.1 yards per carry on the night. So why weren't the defenses primed to stop the run for the rest of the game and primed up only on short down situations where the wind wouldn't be as much of a factor due to the increased odds of the Ravens throwing a short pass? I only ask because if the reason these conversions didn't work is because both teams were primed to stop the run, it certainly doesn't show in the box score. A short passing play on fourth-and-short is more likely than a long passing play, due to the small amount of yardage needed, and a short passing play wouldn't be affected by the wind. So neither defense was primed to stop the run on the night, except in situations when a short passing play to get the first down was more likely? That's your bullshit reasoning?

Or maybe Pittsburgh’s problem is that it did not go for it enough! Here is the 4th Down Bot’s live analysis of why the Steelers should have gone for it on fourth-and-2 in the first quarter, rather than settling for a field-goal attempt.

Oh good, more bullshit. It turns out there are a specific number of fourth down attempts required for a team to be sufficiently inspired to win the game. I never knew this, mostly because Gregg has not mentioned it until now. 

Buffalo opened with three of four at home, badly needing to finish the first month at least 3-1. Come November, the Bills face a grueling five of six on the road. By Thanksgiving, Rex Ryan may have moved on to boasting about the 2016 season.

Gregg is fixated with coaches who have confidence and I'm not sure why. Rex Ryan likes to boast, but it's just part of how he runs his team. He likes building confidence. 

Red Planet Note. The hit movie “The Martian” is causing commentators to wonder why there are no Mars missions in the planning stage. The NASA administrator Charles Bolden maintains people will stand on Mars in around 20 years. That’s like saying “By the 2030s, Congress will enact the annual budget bills on time.”

The spacecraft would weigh 4,000 tons at departure from low-Earth orbit. The cost of placing 4,000 tons into orbit would be about $1 trillion. That’s just delivery cost: spacecraft extra. Until such time as there may be the propulsion breakthrough, Mars-mission talk is political blather.

It was speculated last week in the comments that the "Times" insisted Gregg leave out political and non-football-related topics. Well, I guess not. That's very unfortunate. It's sad that Gregg still has to include filler in TMQ when it's already been shortened. 

Would Thomas Jefferson Have Played FanDuel? A bit of context for this week’s column is that casting lots has always been part of human nature. In Greek mythology, the gods threw dice to determine jurisdiction over Earth. Ancient pottery depicts wagering on animal fights and other forms of betting.

(Gregg Easterbrook earlier in this column) "It is morally wrong for the N.F.L. to be encouraging unsophisticated people to gamble their money away with the illusion of winning more money. How could the N.F.L. take part in such debauchery and tempt people to throw their money out the window? Shame on them!" 

(Gregg Easterbrook now) "Humans have been gambling since the beginning, even in mythology. In fact, even one of the United States Presidents liked to gamble a lot. He didn't run up any debts or anything like that so let's ignore this as any type of evidence that the N.F.L. isn't doing anything morally incorrect by encouraging gambling when Thomas Jefferson liked to gamble."

In his terrific 2007 book “Twilight at Monticello,” Alan Pell Crawford writes that during Thomas Jefferson’s youth, the future author of the Declaration of Independence struggled against the urge to wager. Jefferson found that in Williamsburg, then the decadent city of Virginia, men “entertained themselves in raucous fashion, playing cards, dice and billiards, often for high stakes.” Rest assured, Jefferson kept his mind focused on higher matters: He “did not run up gambling debts, and there are no reports of drunkenness or debauchery.”

Gregg is hoping his "unsophisticated" readers don't notice that "not running up debts" doesn't necessarily mean that Thomas Jefferson won every time he played. Like those who participate in FanDuel, Jefferson lost, but would always pay what he owed. So Jefferson gambled on high stakes, but always paid his debts. You know, sort of like participants in weekly online fantasy sports do when they lose and the money comes out of their checking account. 

Buck-Buck-Brawkkkkkk. Florida led heavily favored and third-ranked Ole Miss, 25-0, in the third quarter when Ole Miss reached fourth-and-goal on the Florida 5 — and kicked. Options for University of Mississippi Coach Hugh Freeze at that juncture: try for the touchdown or concede the game. Kicking proved the latter, Florida winning, 38-10. Doing the “safe” thing by kicking is so deeply ingrained in coaches’ heads that even a four-score deficit in the second half did not seem to Freeze reason to go for it.

I can't really defend this, but sometimes coaches like to give their players confidence by putting points on the board. This may not have been about making the "safe" play, but ensuring his team wasn't shut out for the sake of the team's confidence. 

The Football Gods Chortled. Since firing Lovie Smith after a 10-6 season, the Bears are 14-22. 

Gregg Easterbrook is a master at misleading his readers and selectively providing information to his readers. Ever since firing Lovie Smith the Bears are 14-22? Well, ever since he was fired by the Bears, Lovie Smith's record is 3-17. I don't play online fantasy sports and Gregg may consider me to be "unsophisticated" but that's a winning percentage below that of the Bears since they fired Smith. Of course Gregg leaves Smith's record with the Buccaneers since being fired by the Bears out of the discussion. It doesn't prove his point. Gregg wants to only include information that proves the point he wants to prove and doesn't give a shit if he's trying to mislead his readers in the process of trying to prove his point. It seems like the Football Gods are chortling at Lovie Smith too. I wish the Football Gods would smite Gregg Easterbrook. 

Friday, July 24, 2015

0 comments Bill Madden Again Goes to Bat for Pete Rose

Bill Madden continuously goes to bat for Pete Rose to be in the Hall of Fame. It's his pet project and no matter what Pete Rose does, Madden will want Rose in the Hall of Fame. I'm starting to wonder if Pete Rose murdered someone if that would only strengthen Madden's insistence that Rose deserves to be in the Hall of Fame. He would say that Rose murdering someone with a baseball bat only showed his talent on the field, which is why he should be in the Hall of Fame. So Madden writes about Rose here, here, and here. Simply because a player is an asshole does not mean he shouldn't be in the Hall of Fame, but if it did, then Rose would be doubly-banned from every being in the Hall of Fame. Rose initially denied betting on baseball, then accepted his lifetime ban on baseball while denying he ever bet on the sport, then decided because he had some books to sell that he should admit to betting on baseball and therefore did, but all the while insisting that he NEVER bet on the Reds. Not at all shockingly, this turned out to be a lie too. Perhaps Rose was waiting for his next book to reveal he bet on the Reds. Gotta turn that profit.

So not only is Rose a consistent liar, but he's also still a huge asshole. He's still being a dick about running over Ray Fosse in the All-Star Game. He doesn't have to apologize profusely, but he could be less standoffish and defiant about running over Fosse. I don't blame Rose entirely though. He's had enablers over the year like the rest of his Big Red Machine teammates and sportswriters like Bill Madden, who at this point is so entrenched in the "Pete Rose should be in the Hall of Fame" camp that there is no way he can change his mind now, no matter what Rose does. So he's unfazed by Rose being found out (again) for being liar.

The latest revelations about Pete Rose’s gambling past

Pete Rose was probably pissed he couldn't make money selling a book containing the revelation he bet on baseball. No worries, I'm sure there are many other things that Rose has lied about which could sell copies of his next book.

which came about with the sudden and curious reappearance of the 1989 betting ledger kept by his former memorabilia agent, Mike Bertolini 

When one of Bill Madden's buddies gets hit with 26 year old evidence it is "sudden and curious," but when a suspected PED user has someone he knew 5-10 years ago provide evidence that PED user did use PED's then it's just that person's moral duty to report what they know. What about this evidence is "sudden and curious"? It's old evidence, but does Bill Madden think there is some broad conspiracy to convince the world that Pete Rose bet on the Reds by providing actual evidence he bet on the Reds? 

if nothing else have ensured that the game’s all-time hit king can never come off baseball’s permanent ineligible list.

I'm not sure that was happening either way. 

That Rose, according to the page copies of the ledger obtained by ESPN, bet on baseball as a player for the Cincinnati Reds, and not just as a manager, merely adds one more layer of lies and denials on his part.

At this point, the layers of lies and denials are so deep there's really no recovering from it. The assumption at this point should be that whatever Pete Rose denies doing, this probably means he is lying and actually did do this thing. 

But because the penalty for betting on baseball — permanent ineligibility — has been clearly stated since 1920, it was hard to imagine new commissioner Rob Manfred lifting Rose’s ban anyway when he meets with him in the next few weeks.

Plus, it does cut into Rose's book sales. His revenue from appearance fees and commercials probably won't take a hit though and that's probably more important to him than anything else. 

All this does is further sully Rose’s image, just as a groundswell of support for him to be reinstated after 26 years of banishment appeared to be forming in the wake of all the steroid cheats coming onto the Hall of Fame ballot.

"A groundswell of support" being defined as, "Rose's sportswriter friends are writing about how he should be eligible for the Hall of Fame in an effort to make it seem like this is something a much larger group of people want as well." Nothing like setting the agenda for a topic to be discussed based on your own personal opinion and then commenting that your opinion reflects that of the majority.

Maybe there is a groundswell of support or maybe the fact Rob Manfred is going to be meeting with Pete Rose soon reminds sportswriters that they want Pete Rose to be in the Hall of Fame, which means they write articles about this topic, which means Bill Madden thinks there is a larger groundswell of support than there may actually be.

Even after finally coming clean about his betting on baseball, Rose continued to insist he never bet as a player — despite the assertions to the contrary in the Dowd Report — and now even his most ardent supporters are hard-pressed to have any sympathy for him.

Except for Bill Madden! He's still holding water for Pete Rose and this is a hill he is willing to die on. 

All of this, however, changes nothing in regard to the long-standing baseball conundrum: Does Rose belong — or should he at least be eligible — for the Hall of Fame?

Again, I don't necessarily think Pete Rose should be eligible for the Hall of Fame because he was permanently banned from baseball. That's my reasoning. If Rose gets in, I'm not going to throw a fit, but I think his permanent banishment should preclude him from making the Hall of Fame. This, of course, is where obsessive Rose supporters like Bill Madden will start talking about PED's and attempting to show an equivalence that I'm not sure truly exists. Move the ball, change the subject, then maybe you can convince some people that using PED's equates to betting on baseball and betting on your own team while playing for and managing that team. 

The reason this is a conundrum is because Rose is much like Barry Bonds, Roger Clemens and Alex Rodriguez in many ways. Everything they have said and done off the field — the lies, denials, lies on top of the lies, etc. — renders them illegitimate. 

And here we go...

The difference, in contrast to the others, is that everything Rose did on the field was legitimate.

Absolutely, Pete Rose's performance on the field was totally legit. He didn't take PED's and only took greenies. Wait, Pete Rose took amphetamines that are currently banned by MLB? But don't worry, it was only for "reasons to lose weight." So it's totally fine and doesn't count at all as enhancing his perfomance on the field. This is much like PED users who may use these PED's but only "to come back from injury," which is totally not acceptable. There is a huge difference there. The biggest difference being Pete Rose played back in the 70's and sportswriters don't want to think about those guys as having used any substance to enhance their performance so they will just ignore any information about greenie use from Pete Rose.

Sportswriters like Bill Madden love to cloud the issue of Rose's lifetime ban by talking about the PED use of current players. It's the "How come I'm in jail for robbing a bank when this guy murdered someone and isn't currently in jail?" line of reasoning. Rather than face the fact Rose accepted a ban head-on and has continuously lied since that time, they would rather say, "HEY! These guys cheated and nothing is being done to them" as a way of ignoring the issue of Rose's acceptance of a lifetime ban.

No more respected sports voice than Bob Costas, when posed that question by ESPN’s Hannah Storm last Monday, said affirmatively that the Hall of Fame should still be a separate issue from Rose’s permanent ineligibility and that, in his opinion, Rose should be in the Hall of Fame.

Mind you, Costas is someone many people in the past even promoted for commissioner.

Who cares? These unnamed "people" think a lot of things and that doesn't mean because a group of people think Bob Costas should be commissioner that Costas' opinion should be treated as if it has more importance than it otherwise would.

Interestingly, in an interview Costas had with Manfred a few weeks ago, he specifically asked the new commissioner whether baseball, through its own investigations, knows anything about Rose’s recent or current behavior or associations that would change fans’ minds if they knew about it. Manfred responded: “I can tell you, there is no recent investigation or material involving Pete Rose.”

That is interesting, because Bill Madden would think that Manfred would reveal any evidence that MLB had heard which claimed Rose did bet on his own team. It makes sense for Manfred to reveal this in an interview with Bob Costas as opposed to having it revealed a few weeks later.

Honestly, I have no idea why this is interesting.

Perhaps this whole issue of Rose and gambling on baseball would be much more clear-cut if baseball itself wasn’t in partnership with DraftKings, the online daily fantasy sports website in which millions of dollars are won and lost by fans essentially betting on the performance of professional athletes.

Uh-oh, we are talking about Pete Rose and his associations and current behavior. Better change the subject again!

Except there is a huge difference in baseball players betting on games they manage or play in and fans betting on the performance of athletes. For example, it's not against MLB rules for fans to bet on a player's performance, but it is against the rules for an active manager or player to bet on baseball or his own team. In fact, yep, that's pretty much the only difference required to explain why MLB has a partnership with DraftKings and Pete Rose is banned for life. The issue of Rose and gambling on baseball IS clear-cut. Fans can bet on players because they don't control the outcome of games, while players and managers can't bet on the outcome of games because they are able to control the outcome of said games. This seems like a very basic principle to me.

MLB maintains that fantasy baseball isn’t gambling per se as it falls under the regulatory category of “games of skill” — and that it was beneficial (not to mention highly profitable) for baseball to be involved with an industry that promotes daily interest in the game among younger fans.

Which is possibly true. I find that I am more in-tune with what is going on with each baseball team, as well as enjoy the sport more, because I play fantasy baseball. 

It should be noted that neither the players themselves nor anyone working in Major League Baseball is permitted to engage in DraftKings’ baseball fantasy operation.

Awwww, it's almost like Bill Madden understands the difference in players betting on DraftKings and fans betting on DraftKings, but he just doesn't want to acknowledge there is a fairly clear-cut difference and question what the hell this has to do with Pete Rose. By the way, Pete Rose accepted the lifetime ban and has continuously lied about betting on baseball, as well as betting on his own team while managing that team. I don't think lying necessarily keeps a person out of the Hall of Fame, but when Rose isn't eligible for the Hall of Fame because he bet on baseball and he keeps lying about the extent to which he bet on baseball, it doesn't exactly help me to feel sorry for his plight. 

“In terms of growing the game among young people, baseball’s association with DraftKings makes sense,” said one sports executive. “But at the same, you’re talking about people betting on players every day and, in that respect, baseball’s stance against gambling, if not hypocritical, at the very least becomes blurred.”

I don't think I see this line being blurred. I think it's pretty clear. MLB likes betting when it helps draw new fans to the game and help old fans enjoy the game even more. MLB doesn't like betting when it becomes an issue of the integrity of the games being played to where the outcome of the game could be in question because a manager or player is trying to earn money on a bet they made. Maybe baseball is hypocritical, but this is a pretty clear line in my opinion. Gambling by fans is fun, gambling by those paid to play baseball could put the integrity of the sport into question.

Put Pete Rose on the Hall of Fame ballot. Fine. Just know that trying to make it seems like Rose is getting a raw deal because MLB is affiliated with DraftKings or complaining players who have used PED's are still eligible for the Hall of Fame is avoiding the issue of why Rose can't be on the Hall of Fame ballot.

Monday, December 22, 2014

3 comments Gregg Doyel Thinks Pete Rose Deserves a Second Chance Simply Because He Deserves One

I am one of those people (I guess there are others) who isn't against Pete Rose being reinstated by Major League Baseball. I've just never heard a good argument as to why MLB should reinstate him. Perhaps I am biased by the fact that I consider gambling on sports as a coach/player to be worse than taking PED's. I consider it to be a great offense to sports to either bet on (and especially against) your team. Using PED's is bad, and it does cheat the opposition, I understand that. Gambling is just...different to me. So Gregg Doyel thinks Rob Manfred should reinstate Pete Rose because he thinks Rose has done his time. I don't find his argument persuasive for reinstatement. I think Pete Rose should be allowed in the Hall of Fame, much in the same way I lean towards allowing PED users in the Hall of Fame. The baseball Hall of Fame is a separate entity from MLB and I think Pete Rose belongs in the Hall as one of the greatest baseball players of all-time.

Maybe I'm being harsh. Rose knew the ramifications of his decision and he gambled anyway. The punishment fits the crime. I recognize the same Big Red Machine teammates that are horrified at the thought of PED users being in the Hall of Fame want Rose reinstated, which makes chuckle. On a side note, I miss Joe Morgan. I miss covering his weekly ESPN chats (a tear falls) here. I'm fine with Rose in the Hall of Fame, but he admitted to gambling (once he had a chance to make a profit off his admission, which probably irritates me more than it does most rational human beings) and a lifetime ban is the punishment for this admission.

It's time for baseball to forgive Pete Rose.

Absolutely forgive him. Don't lift the ban just because it's been a long time since he was banned. A lot of time having gone by since his ban doesn't mean Rose should be forgiven.

Simple as that, but this isn't a tweet and I have a lot more than 140 characters to work with, so I can keep going. Don't see why it's necessary, because the first sentence says it all.

Except it doesn't say it all, because it doesn't include the reason why Rose should be reinstated. Why Rose should be reinstated seems pretty important when making the statement that "it's time for baseball to forgive Pete Rose." I can make a statement like, "Anyone convicted of marijuana possession at any point in their life should be given $10,000 in cash, tax free," but this statement doesn't explain WHY I believe this. It's kind of important to know why.

It's time for baseball to forgive Pete Rose.

Saying the same thing over and over doesn't make it more true.

The only reason for the game to hang onto its grudge -- and make no mistake, this has moved beyond justice and into grudge territory -- is cruelty.

Incorrect. The only reason for the game to continue to enforce the punishment, it's not a grudge, is because Rose knew what he was doing is against the rules and did it anyway. They are enforcing a punishment, not hanging onto a grudge. A grudge would be if baseball had no reason to suspend Pete Rose for life and still wouldn't reinstate him, but MLB does have a reason for doing this.

Baseball doesn't like Pete Rose. Baseball wants Pete Rose to suffer.

I fail to see how "Baseball wants Pete Rose to suffer, so they enforce the rules regarding betting on baseball" is a persuasive argument. Why should baseball reinstate Rose? Doyel gives no other reason outside of accusing Bud Selig of disliking Rose and saying it's been 25 years since Rose was banned from baseball. I find neither argument persuasive.

Bud Selig doesn't like Pete Rose. Bud Selig wants Pete Rose to suffer. And so Bud Selig won't forgive Pete Rose.

I don't like Pete Rose. I think he's a rat fink who only looks out for himself and only will accept responsibility for his actions when there is a financial gain for him in doing so. I think Rose hangs around the periphery of baseball trying to gain sympathy as if he were in some way wronged, all while rolling in the money by exploiting his position as being banned from baseball. He's within his rights to do this, but it doesn't mean I have to like him. I think he should be in the Hall of Fame and I haven't heard a good reason he should be reinstated, but I don't hold this position because I don't like him. It's because most of the reasons I have read for reinstating Rose suck. The reasons given for Rose's reinstatement are usually similar to the reasons Doyel is giving here.

That's what was happening in recent years. Selig didn't like the way Rose hijacked the Hall of Fame induction ceremony every year in Cooperstown by setting up an autograph table not far away. He didn't like the way Rose turned his admission of guilt -- "I'm sorry I bet on baseball" -- into the phrase he signed on the baseballs he was selling at Cooperstown. Pete Rose confused contrition with capitalism, and it looked horrible, and as the person overseeing the integrity of baseball Bud Selig didn't like it. Hell, I didn't like it either. Who would?

So of course Gregg Doyel is making the assumption that because Bud Selig allegedly doesn't like Pete Rose for very valid reasons, Selig is refusing to reinstate Rose not because of a lifetime ban from 25 years ago for admitting to violating one of the most important rules of sport, but because Selig just doesn't like Rose. Doyel is about to do a comparison to the justice system, but this is like saying a parole board won't grant a prisoner parole based on the fact they don't like him, not based on the fact he was in jail for murder. The very reason that prisoner is in jail is enough of a reason for denying bail.

I'm not accusing what Rose did as being the same thing as murder, simply explaining the violation of baseball rules on gambling is enough reason to not reinstate Pete Rose. There's no consistent effort by Selig to keep Rose out of the game, which would potentially be the act of a person holding a grudge, because there doesn't have to be a consistent effort. The lifetime ban is enough to keep Rose from being reinstated.

But he's leaving, and in January when baseball has a new commissioner, it will be Rob Manfred's call.

I almost want MLB to reinstate Rose. That way the baseball Hall of Fame has to be the bad guys. I would love for Hall of Fame members to come out in support of Pete Rose being eligible for the Hall of Fame because he has been reinstated. That way I could show the hypocrisy of these Hall of Fame members allowing Pete Rose in the Hall of Fame, but not PED users. It would be a gold mine of posts for me.

On the surface that would suggest Manfred and Selig see eye-to-eye on most issues.

And they probably do. But on all issues? Is it logical to assume Rob Manfred, a labor lawyer out of the Ivy League, is in intellectual lockstep with Bud Selig -- a car-lot owner from the University of Wisconsin -- on every single issue? Of course not. That's not logical.

BREAKING NEWS FROM GREGG DOYEL: Two individual human beings will never agree on every single issue presented to them.

That's delusional. NFL commissioner Roger Goodell was Paul Tagliabue's right-hand man; does anyone think Goodell is another Tagliabue? Same goes for David Stern when he replaced Larry O'Brien as NBA commissioner.

Gregg, I don't know if anyone but you indicated that Manfred and Selig might see eye-to-eye on every issue. Logical people wouldn't think this to be true.

He became a partner in a global law firm based in Philadelphia, where his work in labor law attracted the attention of baseball. He became the owners' outside lawyer, then joined Selig's staff in 1998.

Nearly a decade after Rose was banned from the game.

I like how Doyel is grasping on desperately to this idea of time. Time is why Rose should be reinstated. Time is why Manfred doesn't have the perspective that Selig had. It's as if Manfred will be like, "I didn't personally ban Pete Rose, so I will ignore the rules that state gambling on baseball will earn that person a lifetime ban."

Gregg Doyel is hiding some facts here when discussing Manfred. Rob Manfred went to work for MLB in 1987, before Rose was banned. He was part of the owners' team during collective bargaining during the 1994-1995 season. He joined full-time as part of the owners' team in 1998. 16 years after beginning to work for the owners full-time is Manfred really still an outsider? If Selig isn't an outsider and he was the owner of an MLB team, doesn't that mean the guy who has worked for MLB prior to Pete Rose being banned is not an outsider either? He's been on the owners' side from the time Selig owned the Brewers and been with Selig for the past 16 years.

My point? Selig had something Manfred does not: a personal history with Rose. In 1989 when commissioner Bart Giamatti banned Rose, Selig owned the Milwaukee Brewers. He was part of the machine. In 1992 when Rose applied for reinstatement to Giamatti's replacement, Fay Vincent didn't act on it; Selig was still part of the machine. And in 1999 when Rose applied for reinstatement to Vincent's replacement, Bud Selig ignored it too.

I like how it is Bud Selig that has the grudge, even though he wasn't the commissioner who banned Pete Rose and isn't the commissioner that initially ignored his attempt at reinstatement.

Selig was there from the beginning with Rose, is my point. He was entrenched. Rose wants reinstatement? Selig shrugs.

I'm not saying Manfred wouldn't consider it, but Rob Manfred is entrenched too. He's been a part of the owners' team since the 1994-1995 season and has worked with MLB since 1987. He has been there through Rose's banishment and every single one of his appeals. He's not quite the outsider that Gregg Doyel wants to paint him as being.

Manfred will probably be his own man, just like Adam Silver is his own man as the NBA commissioner, but he's pretty entrenched with the owners and MLB. As far as Bud Selig being entrenched and holding a grudge against Rose, I don't think Rose has given Selig a reason to reinstate him.

Some day soon Rose will ask Manfred to consider the same. Just a matter of time, because time is running out on Pete Rose. He's 73 years old, 

The fact Pete Rose is getting older is not a reason to reinstate him. It was a lifetime ban, not a ban until the very point Pete Rose is young enough to remember he got reinstated but old enough to where he can't participate in any baseball events due to his health.

how much time do any of us have, much less any of us in our 70s who have lived with the stress and disappointment that Rose has dealt with for the past 25 years?

Gregg Doyel leaves out the fact that Pete Rose has caused the stress and disappointment that he has had to deal with over the past 25 years. Such small details I know, but Rose brought this all on himself. Not to mention, he's making money off his name and who he is, and he doesn't seem to be struggling or headed for a retirement home in the next few months. I would feel bad for the "stress" Rose has caused for himself, but all of his wounds are self-inflicted.

Enough's enough, know what I mean?

I know what that means, but I don't know what you mean in this situation. A lifetime ban is a lifetime ban, you know what I mean?

Baseball wouldn't be sending a message of weakness to anyone considering betting on the game, the cardinal sin Rose broke -- and it is a huge sin, and he did break it. I minimize neither of those.

Doyel isn't minimizing it, but time and suffering...what about time and suffering. Plus, grudges!

Betting on baseball is horrible, something all players are reminded of with a sign in every clubhouse spelling out the punishment: a lifetime ban.

And there we go. It's in every clubhouse and the players know the penalty. Allow Pete Rose to be eligible for the Hall of Fame, but I don't see a reason to reinstate him. I'm open to it if a good enough case can be made, but Rose knew the rules and his only commitments to being apologetic are when he make a profit off doing so. There's no grudge involved, but that Rose wants to make money off his lifetime ban certainly isn't helping his case. Rose comes off as an opportunist more than he comes off as remorseful. Rose has cried publicly about being banned from baseball, so maybe he is contrite. Maybe it's an act for those who want to believe him.

If anything, it would get this topic back into the forefront of conversation around the game, and the conversation would start like this:

They banned the all-time hit king for 25 years. Embarrassed him. Humiliated him. If they can do that to Pete Rose, what would they do to me?

That conversation has started and goes like this: "They banned the all-time hit king for life. Imagine what they would do to me."

I think it's hilarious that Gregg Doyel thinks giving Rose a 25 year ban, instead of a lifetime ban, would serve as a greater deterrent to future players who want to gamble on baseball. The fact MLB eventually let Rose back in would start a conversation about that as well. Maybe if a player just admits to gambling on baseball immediately and is contrite, he won't get a 25 year banishment.

Twenty-five years isn't life, but a life sentence doesn't always have to be a life sentence. It's not in our court system, where a life system often leads to parole. How come? Because our court system feels like there are times when the prisoner has done his time, and whatever he did to earn that lifetime sentence, he's paid his price.

This isn't a court system. Pete Rose had paid his price. He's still paying his price. It doesn't have to be a life sentence, but what reasoning has Pete Rose given MLB to reinstate him? Other than hanging around baseball and trying to remind everyone how much he loves and the game and oh by the way do you want an autographed baseball for $100? Rose will write he bet on baseball on the ball for $50 more dollars.

Where's the forgiveness for Pete Rose? Where's his second chance?

Sometimes there is no forgiveness. Sometimes there is no second chance. This is something that gets lost in society today. There may not be a second chance given. I think a lot of people run on the assumption if they screw up, they will get forgiveness or a second chance, and that doesn't always happen. Sometimes there is only one chance to not screw up and sometimes once you screw up there is no second chance to save face and get back to where you were prior to screwing up.

Oh, right. It's in the hands of Rob Manfred. And I like it there. Because Rob Manfred is no Bud Selig.

He may not be Bud Selig. We will all find out. Manfred isn't the outsider that Gregg Doyel seems to think he is. Plus, if Rose is reinstated it will start a whole new set of columns where the old guard of sportswriters will defend gambling on baseball as so much better than using PED's in an effort to get Rose in the Hall of Fame, but still keep PED users out. Those are some articles I would like to cover here.

Friday, November 14, 2014

2 comments Bill Simmons Does an Article About Y2K Quarterbacks, Because Can't It Just Be 2004 Again?

As I have probably explained before, I don't cover Bill Simmons articles as much as I would like to for two reasons. (1) He posts them as late on Friday as humanly possible when I don't feel like writing and posting anything else. What's interesting is Bill used to hate how late ESPN would post his columns and that was the source of his difficulty with ESPN management when he was on Page 2, yet on Grantland he posts his Friday column usually well after lunch and more towards 5pm. (2) It takes a lot of energy to post a Bill Simmons column. It's not an excuse, but it's a hill to climb, then factor in that by the time I'm getting to Bill's column MMQB and TMQ are needing to be posted...if anyone ever wondered, that's why I don't cover Bill Simmons as much. So anyway, Bill writes about the "Y2K-compliant" quarterbacks because he, like me, wants to go back to 2004 when he cared about his writing.

Nearly 15 years later, I remember three things about Y2K. First, many people were legitimately concerned that computers would freak out at midnight,

Not just concerned, LEGITIMATELY concerned. There's a huge difference in that one sounds more serious than the other.

It was secretly disappointing when midnight came and went without an electronic catastrophe.

No, it wasn't secretly disappointing. I was legitimately not secretly disappointed.

By the way, there are only six YouTube videos in this column. Only six! Such an improvement from Bill.

And third, I remember thinking about the end of the world and being bummed out about one thing and one thing only: not that I’d be losing the chance to have kids or get married,

Because anyone who has read Bill's books or columns knows that women are nags who can only ruin a successful man's life.

not that I’d be losing my dream of building a big audience for my “Sports Guy” column,

I call bullshit on this. It's not a bad thing, but Bill was always very dedicated to building his "Sports Guy" column and his brand. He started having a small amount of success around the year 2000, and since he calls it "his dream," I'm calling bullshit.

but that I’d live and die without seeing a Boston team win a World Series or a Super Bowl.

This is your weekly reminder from Bill Simmons that the Red Sox have won multiple World Series and the Patriots have won multiple Super Bowls. No matter what, he has to call back to a time when he wasn't so spoiled by his teams' success. He made his bones whining about how cursed his teams were, so he needs to get back to that spot quickly in order to give the illusion that he's the same guy he was 15 years ago.

We’re 14 years in. The words “21st century” actually mean something. And in the 21st century, exactly 10 quarterbacks have won Super Bowls.

• Tom Brady (five times)
• Ben Roethlisberger (twice)
• Kurt Warner
• Trent Dilfer
• Brad Johnson
• Peyton Manning
• Drew Brees
• Aaron Rodgers
• Joe Flacco
• Russell Wilson


Bill, you are missing Eli M---

Fine, fine. You caught me. ELEVEN quarterbacks have won a Super Bowl in the 21st century.
 
• Tom Brady (three times)
• Ben Roethlisberger (twice)
• Eli Manning (twice)
• Kurt Warner
• Trent Dilfer
• Brad Johnson
• Peyton Manning
• Drew Brees
• Aaron Rodgers
• Joe Flacco
• Russell Wilson


You are so creative and such a jokester. The Patriots have been the most successful NFL franchise since 2000, but Bill has to whine just a little bit that they aren't more successful.

The weakest QBs? Trent Dilfer and Brad Johnson definitely “game managed” their way to titles,

Did you know that Baltimore won four straight playoff games with Dilfer completing 35 passes … total?

And now this motherfucker has the balls to run a QB camp, all while saying insanely stupid shit on ESPN like the Patriots just aren't good anymore, that teams can't win by losing games, the Panthers coaching staff wants Cam Newton to be a running back, and generally acting like he's Scottie Pippen when he's really just Luc Longley. I imagine the first lesson at Trent Dilfer's QB camp is "Go find a historically great defense and just don't turn the ball over. Success will follow."

Every time a Chiefs fan says, “I think we can win the Super Bowl with Alex Smith,” they’re really saying, “I mean, the 2002 Bucs won a Super Bowl with Brad Johnson!” I don’t know. Those were different times.

They were different times because a team could win the Super Bowl with just a historically great defense. The Seahawks won the Super Bowl last year with a historically great defense, but Russell Wilson is not Brad Johnson or Trent Dilfer. He's better than them.

The third-weakest QB on that list? Eli Manning.

I mean, it's a pretty good list with seven Hall of Fame quarterbacks on it. So being third-weakest isn't exactly a slam like Bill wants it to be.

I’m the wrong person to shepherd a “Could the 2007 Giants and 2011 Giants have won Super Bowls with any decent QB?” conversation, if only because I might intentionally injure myself. So let’s just agree that the Giants scored 38 points combined in those two Super Bowls, one of which went New York’s way because their 17th-string receiver caught the last pass of his career with his helmet.

Okay, Bill. Your teams never get lucky or fortunate. Never happened.

It’s too early to have an opinion on Russell Wilson’s Super Bowl, but the “Luck or Wilson?” debate finished filming in October. (Spoiler alert: Luck won.) Is Wilson an infinitely more athletic Brad Johnson? Is his 2014 performance suffering because his offensive line collapsed and he doesn’t have enough weapons (and not because we overrated him)?

I think Russell Wilson could use more to work with, but I also think he isn't going to be a fantastic quarterback on the level of most of the other quarterbacks on the list Bill provided that have won a Super Bowl since 2000.

The five best QBs of the 21st century, by any calculation, are Brady, Brees, Rodgers, Roethlisberger and Peyton Manning in some order.

Okay, it's settled then. Brett Favre, go home.

Why bring up that Y2K list? For one thing, if you forced me into a 21st Century QB Mount Rushmore decision, I would bump Brees before Roethlisberger. Brees has six career playoff wins, one Super Bowl win and one conference title game appearance. He spent his entire career playing home games in 75-degree weather (San Diego) or indoors (New Orleans). And the team that drafted him eventually gave up on him.

I feel like I'm taking crazy pills...I wouldn't disagree with Bill overall about where Brees has played most of his career, but I wouldn't say the Chargers "gave up" on Brees. They had drafted Rivers and did make Brees an offer to stay. If they gave up on him, they would have traded him or released him prior to drafting Rivers. The Chargers wanted to keep Brees around, so they weren't giving up on him, just simply not committing to him.

For regular season — Brees. For everything — Roethlisberger.

He’s the most underrated quarterback of the 21st century. It’s true.

No, it's not true. It's an opinion. It can be an opinion many agree with, yet it still remains as an opinion. The words you write are not facts, but opinions, even if they are well-regarded opinions from someone who holds himself in such high esteem like Bill Simmons does.

The Tahoe incident was eventually settled out of court, and the Georgia incident earned him a six-game suspension from Roger Goodell (eventually dropped to four games). Both damaged Roethlisberger’s reputation. In retrospect, every Goodell suspension seems suspect after how egregiously the commissioner botched Bountygate, then acted irresponsibly, incompetently and maybe even illegally and mendaciously after Ray Rice knocked his wife out (hopefully, we’ll have a result from the hearing about Rice’s re-suspension next week).

Careful, Bill. ESPN allows their employees to say insanely stupid shit, just don't say anything potentially 50% true about someone ESPN does business with and then dare them to suspend you.

Meanwhile, I’m pretty sure that Roethlisberger hasn’t filmed a major commercial since 2009. (I couldn’t find one on the Internet, that’s for sure.) His national profile effectively consists of 16 to 20 football games per year, dozens of press conferences and the occasional “insightful” sitdown with Bob Costas (or whomever) that never reveals anything interesting. And we’re fine with it.

Yes, "we" are fine with it. Thank God that Bill Simmons is here to speak for "us."

That 2009 incident inspired us to collectively reject the mythology of Roethlisberger’s greatness, even though so many went the other way with Kobe Bryant earlier in the decade (in an undeniably similar situation).

I do somewhat disagree with this. I think the difference is that Roethlisberger is a great quarterback, but Kobe Bryant is one of the greatest NBA players of all-time. The difference is relative. Kobe's greatness has been rejected by quite a few (points at Bill), but the fact he is one of the all-time great NBA players has helped the mythology grow in ways that Roethlisberger's just won't. Roethlisberger is great, but he isn't one of the Top 10-20 quarterbacks of all-time, while Kobe is one of the Top 10-20 NBA players of all-time.

You know when I officially realized this?

After Ben Roethlisberger proved he was great and you had time to go back and point out what "we" should have known all along and then made up a gambling theory that will be untrue in a few weeks?

In the words of Dave Dameshek quoting Jerry Orbach from Dirty Dancing, when I’m wrong, I’m wrong. Roethlisberger IS great.

Even if he doesn’t routinely throw up video-game numbers, you’d feel 100 percent comfortable riding him for any big game or any season-saving drive. 

Oh, I would feel that way? Thanks for telling me. I wasn't sure how I felt in this situation. But it turns out that I am comfortable riding Roethlisberger for any big game or any season-saving drive. These things that Bill knows about "us" that "we" don't know...

Back to the Y2K/Super Bowl thing: I brought it up because there’s another list of memorable 21st-century QBs who haven’t won a Super Bowl. Here’s that list …
 
• Rich Gannon
• Steve McNair
• Donovan McNabb
• Jake Delhomme
• Carson Palmer
• Philip Rivers
• Tony Romo
• Matt Ryan
• Colin Kaepernick
• Andrew Luck


Luck has been in the league less than three years. I get it, he hasn't won a Super Bowl, but he's memorable really only in that he will be really memorable in a few more years.

Delhomme’s topsy-turvy career peaked with 2003’s improbable hot streak — two playoff upsets, then Delhomme scaring the bejesus out of every overconfident Patriots fan during the Nipple Bowl.

I would disagree with the "improbable" part. I don't know if Delhomme was memorable or not, but he was pretty good during the 2004 and 2005 seasons. He definitely played well in the 2003 playoffs, but he also played really well during the playoffs in 2005 (well, 2 of 3 games). So Delhomme's career didn't peak during the Super Bowl, though it was a part of the peak.

As for the non-retired guys, Romo is Romo — the most polarizing QB of this century not named Michael Vick. But he could have made a Super Bowl on the right team. Same for Rivers, who’s really a better version of Romo with more kids. Ryan nearly won the NFC title in 2013, although he didn’t — so maybe that says something, too.

Matt Ryan almost made a Super Bowl, so that means something, but he didn't, so maybe that means something also. So basically the fact Matt Ryan didn't make a Super Bowl may or may not mean something. Everything is everything and something is always something.

And Luck, of anyone on that list, is the surest wager to win at least one Lombardi. Maybe sooner than we think.

I wasn't sure when "we" thought Luck would win a Super Bowl. Say I think Luck will win the Super Bowl this year. So how could he win a Super Bowl earlier than that? Huh, Bill?? HUH??? Stop using "we" as if you speak for everyone who reads your column you self-important ass.

Which brings us to Carson Palmer, who becomes The Most Underrated QB Of The 21st Century as soon as we stop underrating Roethlisberger. You might remember me making fun of Palmer in this column many, many, many times. Many times. Many, MANY times. And I stand by all of it.

Another superlative being handed down by Bill. It's one of those days for him. When in doubt, hyperbolize.

Also notice how Bill calls Carson Palmer The Most Underrated QB of the 21st Century, acknowledges he has made fun of Palmer many times and doesn't take any of it back. Bill openly admits to underrating Palmer, yet doesn't have the guts to just say "There could be a few things I was wrong about." There's only so much humility Bill can show in one column. If Palmer is underrated and Bill made fun of him, shouldn't some of those comments be taken back?

Still, no 21st-century QB had worse luck than Carson Palmer did. Barnwell covered this angle perfectly less than 13 months ago on Grantland, so I won’t rehash it here.

Palmer's ACL injury on a very good Cardinals team contributes to his bad luck. Still, I would disagree he has had bad luck in that Palmer could have chosen to play on a Bengals team with A.J. Green, a high 2nd round pick (instead of Dalton being drafted there), a quality offensive line and a good defense. He chose to demand a trade instead. So some of the bad luck was his own doing.

If you were blessed with a “Reset” button and the ability to play an athlete’s career 10 times, would the real-life outcome be the unluckiest career of those 10 times?

This is a question without a definitively provable answer. There's no reason to waste times with "what if?" questions that only go to serve a point that Bill wants to prove.

For instance, if you replayed Webber’s career 10 times, he goes down as one of the NBA’s 30 greatest players ever at least seven or eight of those times. Only three things could derail someone that talented: a major injury (happened), circumstances (happened) and bad luck (happened). If Orlando never traded Webber’s rights for Penny Hardaway’s rights and three first-round picks, he and Shaq would have destroyed everybody. (That’s bad luck.) If Webber hadn’t entered the NBA during the height of the Too Much Too Soon era, he wouldn’t have used his contract leverage to bully his way from a loaded Warriors team to a mediocre Washington team. (That’s circumstances — you never want to give a 21-year-old that kind of power, but that’s what the NBA was doing in the mid-’90s.) And if he never ruined his knee, Webber’s prime would have lasted twice as long. (The injury card, obviously.) So it took THREE different flukes to prevent Webber’s career from being as good as or better than Kevin Garnett.

But this real-life outcome wasn't the worst possible outcome. Webber could have blown his knee out during his rookie season and then never played in the NBA again. The same thing goes for Carson Palmer. What Bill presents as the worst possible outcome truly isn't the worst possible outcome. But again, Bill wants to prove a point and that's all that matters.

But one thing after another happened to him: The cheap-ass Bengals drafted him, then he blew out his knee on his first playoff pass during 2005’s breakout season, then he injured his throwing elbow in 2008, then he got traded to Siberia (the Raiders), then he landed in Arizona as the team’s 345th attempt to replace Kurt Warner with anyone competent.

Again, this isn't the worst possible outcome. Palmer could have blown his knee out during his rookie season and then hurt his elbow after that. Palmer also forced a trade to the Raiders, which along with Drew Brees taking the biggest contract offer when he was a free agent, seems to have magically become forgotten along the way. Palmer was traded because he demanded to be traded. His ending up in Oakland was a by-product of his demanding a trade and refusing to play for the Bengals.

When Barnwell posted his “Can’t-Miss Kid” article on October 18, 2013, it read like something of a football obituary. And rightly so.
 
So what happened?
 
Did Palmer read the article and go into Rocky-in-Russia mode?

Yes Bill, Grantland articles directly impact how professional athletes behave and train during the season.

Was this the all-time coincidence in the history of Grantland coincidences?
We only know that Palmer — within a few days of Barnwell’s column — suddenly transformed back into Someone You Might Be Able To Win A Super Bowl With. He’s won 12 of his last 14 starts, losing the other two by three points apiece. According to Mike Sando, he ranks sixth in QBR during that stretch (69.8, trailing only Peyton Manning, Rodgers, Rivers, Brady and Brees), and he has thrown for 3,918 yards and 27 TDs with just 11 picks.

That column also happened to be printed after Palmer had come off two straight games of playing well, as well as a soft part of the Cardinals' schedule. So he was playing well a couple of weeks before the article was written. It took Palmer a few weeks to fully grasp Arians' offense after not having been in the offense for a full year yet and he had shown signs of playing well prior to the column being written. It's all in the game log.

This isn’t one of those Josh McCown five-game rope-a-dope situations. Palmer has been playing extremely well for 13 solid months, even persevering when his receivers caught a recent case of the dropsies (mentioned here).

The Cardinals have a great coach, a great offensive line, and a great set of receivers. I think Palmer could have done something similar if he had stayed in Cincinnati.

Then immediately after writing that he was sort of wrong about Carson Palmer, but he won't totally admit it, Bill writes sentences sure to pop in his Friday NFL picks column again as a reminder of how smart he is...

But the Cardinals have some subtle omens going against them. They’re 16th in overall DVOA; they have a Pythagorean record that’s two wins lower than their real record (Barnwell Link No. 3!);5 and they’ve recovered nine of 14 fumbles (third-luckiest in the league) and they’re plus-10 in turnover differential. Any numbers nerd is waving a “REGRESSION!!!!!” flag right now.

Does that mean Arizona should consider throwing this week’s Rams game to be safe? Of course not. But the “Everybody Believes In Us” factor unnerves me.

Palmer got hurt, but I'm sure Bill chalk the Cardinals regression (which I'm assuming there will be some) up to the factors he lists here instead of the loss of their really underrated quarterback. 

Oh, and if I had told you 13 months ago that Carson Palmer would be leading a 2014 title contender, you would have asked which CFL team had signed him. There’s that, too.

No, I would not have.

It goes on and on and on. You can SEE them in the Super Bowl. But I believe in the Cardinals simply because they remind me of the 2003 Patriots, an exceptionally well-coached team with a knack for pulling out close games.

The Cardinals may regress, but Bill can also see them in the Super Bowl. It wouldn't concern me that Bill says both of these things, but it concerns me and I mention it only because anyone reads Bill's columns know that Bill loves to take credit for any predictions that turn out to be correct. How many times has he linked an old article where he points out something he said that ended up sounding smart? So his saying the Cardinals may regress, along with saying he can see them in the Super Bowl, leads me to believe Bill is playing both sides of the issue.

But let’s also agree that, occasionally, a football team shows up that just seems comfortable playing close games. For the Cardinals, there are six tangible reasons for this: exceptional coaching, an A-list secondary that shuts down third-and-longs, a superb red zone defense, multiple playmakers who can explode at any time, a running game that can protect tight leads, and a veteran QB who’s too old to get scared.

I’m in! I’m all in! Sign me up! I don’t care if the Cardinals have inadvertently become the “Everybody Believes In Us” team — they’re the NFC’s best football team, I believe in their tangibles and intangibles, and I even kinda-sorta-maybe believe in their QB

I'm guessing Bill was violently throwing himself off the Cardinals' bandwagon Monday morning once he knew that Drew Stanton would be driving the Cardinals' offense for the rest of the season. Without The Most Underrated Quarterback of the 21st Century that Bill has said critical things about and still really means, he probably doesn't believe the Cardinals have a chance anymore to make the Super Bowl.

Besides, in a 21st century that’s been as goofy as advertised, it makes perfect sense that Carson Palmer would start a home Super Bowl game … right? Please manage your gambling wagers accordingly.

Retract your gambling wagers immediately!

On to the Week 10 picks …

Jaguars (+7.5) over COWBOYS
 

Does anyone else love that we keep torturing the English by sending them terrible football games? They shouldn’t have messed with us in the 1700s — it’s their fault. I fully expect the Cowboys to finish 8-8 again, which means they’re blowing this game to Bad News Blake Bortles. My upset special: Jags 24, Cowboys 10.

Or not. Also, wasn't the exciting Lions-Falcons game played in London this year? Generally, the games in London haven't been great, but it's weird that Bill referred to terrible football games played in London when an exciting game was just played there.

Bill then links the YouTube video of Trent Dilfer saying the Patriots "Just aren't good anymore." It goes to show what a clown Trent Dilfer is.

Of course Bill runs some letters, because he can't write an entire column these days without a few reader emails. Someone has to produce content so Bill can talk about how much he writes, it may as well not be Bill. The emails from Bill's readers all end the same way as they do in other mailbags. Here's a sampling:

Bill, Ladies and Gentlemen, your 2015 Houston Texans!! Hook’em!

If Eli and Ben could do it twice, why can’t Rivers? NOBODY BELIEVES IN US!!

Bill's Simmonsite readers love to parrot his catch phrases. Bill and his readers have been using the same catchphrases for over a decade now...and in no way is that depressing.

San Diego’s Bye Week (-5.5) over Washington’s BYE WEEK

Q: Every analyst is jumping off the Chargers bandwagon like it’s carrying rabid dogs. Maybe it’s just out of room because it’s carrying all of Rivers’ children. Are the Chargers building themselves up to be the “nobody believes in us” team this year? They have all of the pieces — injured players that can fill the gaps, a defense that has been good when healthy, and a QB from the 2004 draft class that can catch fire. If Eli and Ben could do it twice, why can’t Rivers? NOBODY BELIEVES IN US!!

—Brian Djavaherian

BS: Glad you brought this up.

Brian, you now have Bill Simmons' approval. Consider your life now having some sort of meaning.

Right now, the Chargers are 5-4 and coming off three straight losses to a definite Super Bowl contender (Denver), a possible Super Bowl contender (Miami) and a probable 10-win team (Kansas City, a game that could have gone either way). They have a bye week to lick their wounds (and get healthy), then home games against Oakland and St. Louis. Let’s say they win those two. After that — at Baltimore, home for New England, home for Denver, at San Francisco, at Kansas City. And they can’t finish worse than 10-6.

I mean … even I don’t believe in them. And I picked them to be a Super Bowl contender.

(In other words … literally, NOBODY BELIEVES IN YOU, SAN DIEGO!!!! Keep an eye on this one.)

By the way, Bill has three AFC teams he considers as Super Bowl contenders at this point. Throw in the obvious, that he thinks the Patriots are Super Bowl contenders and his earlier love for Ben Roethlisberger and that's probably five teams in the AFC that Bill considers to be a Super Bowl contender. At this point, Bill seems to think any playoff-caliber AFC team is a Super Bowl contender.

Minnesota’s Bye Week (+8) over Indy’s Bye Week

Q: I’m sure you’ve gotten 100 emails on this, but the guy who had Adrian Peterson in my fantasy league dropped him last week. I have top priority this week so I can grab him for the stretch if his suspension is ended. This is clearly the best move from a fantasy perspective, but as a father it makes me feel ‘unclean.’ What should I do?

—Jacob, Somerville

BS: Hmmmmmm … I don’t know. Let’s ask Thom Yorke.

Bill then links "Karma Police" in a YouTube video. Screw karma. I picked up Adrian Peterson in a fantasy league all while absolutely not wanting Greg Hardy to be a part of the Carolina Panthers football team. It's fantasy, not real life. If I can draft players I don't personally like on teams I don't personally like, I can handle picking up a Top-5 running back when I have started two Browns running backs over the past two weeks.

Q: I know he isn’t there yet, but how many more holy shit plays are needed before Sammy Watkins is deserving of a nickname? We have MegaTron, so I was thinking Sammy would be MegaWatt.

—David, New York

BS: Come on, you don’t need a nickname when your first name is “Sammy,” and you definitely don’t need a nickname when you’re “Sammy Watkins.”

Bill couldn't think of a nickname to top MegaWatt, so he decided that Watkins doesn't need a nickname.

But you know what we DO need a nickname for? Anytime Mike Carey awkwardly breaks down any review of one of Jerome Boger’s atrocious calls. It’s like the streams crossing in Ghostbusters. Send me the best nickname and I’ll run it next week.

Everybody send Bill a list of nicknames and then he will spend most of the week trying to top the nickname that his readers have come up with. The smartest, most clever guy in the room? It has to be Bill at all times.

Andrew in Ann Arbor: “Jim Caldwell’s weekday coaching deserves a nomination for Sneaky Good Watch status. The Lions commit considerably fewer dumb penalties, turn the ball over less, and are generally a much less stupid football team this year. Under Schwartz facing the kind of adversity they had the last few weeks, they would have fallen apart and been blown out. That said, Jim Caldwell’s gameday coaching definitely needs to be included in the Shaky Watch this week. He punted on 4th-and-6 from the opponent’s 37 down 14, kicked a FG from the 2 down 21, kicked another FG from the 4 down 11, decided to settle for a 48 yard FG despite the Lions kicking woes, and most amazingly ran the ball with no timeouts left on third down and 25 seconds left. Which means his plan was to sprint the field goal team onto the field, which almost never works.

Yeah Andrew, but you forgot about the mind games and dinner Caldwell has with his players. It's the key to the team's success this season!

SAINTS (-6) over Niners

I can’t believe the Saints have a chance to go from 2-4 to 12-4. They’re catching the Niners at a perfect time, right when I’m getting emails like this …

Q: My brother and I just realized what the Jim Harbaugh era is. It’s mirroring M. Night Shyamalan’s career.

2011 – NFC Championship Game = Sixth Sense. (Wow that was awesome! Didn’t see that coming.)

2012 – Superbowl = Unbreakable. (Hey that was solid! Can’t wait for many more like this. The guy can’t miss. BEST COACH/DIRECTOR OUT THERE RIGHT NOW!)

2013 – NFC Championship Game = Signs. (Solid, but got a little bumpy. Next one will be better for sure.)

2014 – 4-4 so far = The Village. (Um WTF was that? Seriously???)

2015 = Lady in the Water (HOLY HELL!!! GET ME OUT OF HERE!!)

We need to get rid of Harbaugh ASAP! Just let the Jets have 2016 – THE YEAR OF THE HARBAUGH CRAPPENING.

—Jay Cohen, San Francisco

And naturally the 49ers beat the Saints at home causing this forced comparison to sound even more forced. What was that victory in this comparison to Shyamalan's career? Definitely not "The Last Airbender," not "After Earth," and beating the Saints at home isn't "The Village." So maybe Bill and Jay can shit all over the timeline and say it's Shyamalan writing "Stuart Little." Or else, it's just not a good comparison.

JETS (+6) over Steelers

Q: I can’t believe you wrote an article in which you bitch about the Patriots. Try being a Jets fan. Fuck you.

—Dan D.

BS: Didn’t you read what just I wrote? You’re getting M. Night Harbaughlan! Things are looking up! By the way, I think the Jets somehow cover this one. Can’t explain it. The line is suspiciously, curiously low for reasons that CANNOT be explained.

In hindsight, it's explained by the Jets winning the football game.

Q: Watching the Sunday Night Football game and listening to Al and Cris marvel at the incredible “James Harrison was retired three weeks ago and now is somehow playing like one of the best linebackers in the game” story for the 50th time that quarter, I couldn’t be the only one to come up with an easy explanation for that “somehow?”
 

—Zach H., Cleveland

BS: The Cleveland-Pittsburgh rivalry, everybody! It’s heating up!

This is ridiculous. Only MLB has a problem with PED's. Football has not ever had, nor ever will have, an issue with players using PED's. NFL players are just naturally huge individuals with muscles all over their body. Roger Goodell certainly has never put his head in the sand because he's no Bud Selig.

Quickly on the Rams: They’re the NFL version of me as a golfer. I started playing golf again this year after a self-imposed 20-year hiatus, which is actually a good story that I will tell some other time. In the past six months, I’ve played 15 times. My game is slowly coming back. Right now, I’m shooting between 95 and 100 from the blues. And every round is the same — I have four awesome holes and four horrible ones, with a slew of bogeys and double bogeys in between. That makes me a good best-ball partner as long as I’m playing with someone good.

That's a great story, Bill. I was just getting ready to ask about how your golf game was going. That is very interesting, please tell me more.

That’s the Rams — you’d want them for best ball, but not real life. During a 16-game season, they’re going to bogey or double bogey eight holes, fall apart on four holes and overachieve on four holes. They already birdied Week 7 (the Seattle game) and shot par in Week 9 (the Niners win). In Week 10, I see them crushing a great drive on a par-4, just missing the approach, then three-putting for a frustrating bogey.

As usual, Bill takes up more words than required to state something. Rather than just saying, "The Rams are inconsistent," Bill has to use an overly-long analogy takes up more space and sounds smarter than just calling the Rams inconsistent.

That’s right, Seattle. You know I love your city and you know I hate how OKC stole the Sonics from you. But save for opening night, your crowds have sucked this season. Peyton Manning went 80 yards in like three seconds to force OT on you. You lost to Dallas at home. You couldn’t blow out the lowly Raiders last week, for God’s sake. Are you suffering from Pink Hat Syndrome (a.k.a. too many bandwagon fans)? Are you taking this stuff for granted now? What’s up?

What is partially up is that Seattle fans can be loud, but they can't make up for the Seahawks not playing well. I realize Bill thinks that fans have as much of a direct, immediate impact on the outcome of a sporting event as the two teams playing on the court/field, but it's not entirely true. There is probably an impact on the opposing team's performance, but to wonder why the Seattle fans can't blow out the Raiders at home is just silly.

Two of Grantland’s finest employees are Sean Fennessey and Chris Ryan. They happen to be close friends, they occasionally drive to and from work together, and they can even communicate in staff meetings just by glancing at one another. Fennessey is a long-suffering Jets fan; Ryan is a long-suffering Eagles fan.


At this point, Bill thinks the fan of any sports team is "long-suffering" if his/her team hasn't won a title in the last 12 months. Almost everyone is long-suffering according to Bill. 

In 2014, the Sanchize landed in Philly as Chip Kelly’s reclamation project. Last week, Nick Foles broke his collarbone and Sanchez saved the day against Houston. He looked good enough that some people (a) picked him up in fantasy football, and (b) wondered if he could have a Plunkett-esque rejuvenation in Philly. And even if Chris Ryan will deny it to the death, deep down, he’s talking himself into the parallel “I mean, Sanchez did play in an AFC title game and beat the Patriots in the playoffs on the road” and “If anyone can turn him around, it’s Chip Kelly” narratives. Again, he’d never admit this. But he’s thinking it. 

And Fennessey? He’s just sitting there with a big smile on his face, like someone in college with a crazy ex who just found out that his or her good friend might be falling for that crazy ex. Should I intervene here? Nahhhhhhhhh.

This is a dumb comparison. If a person had a good friend who was falling for his crazy ex then I would hope the one friend would talk the other friend out of it. I realize that Bill is desperately trying to appeal to his target demographic by talking about boy-girl issues, but this just seems like a pretty forced (and stereotypically Bill Simmons) comparison.

This Week: 1-0
Last Week: 7-6
Season: 96-39


I went 58-0 from Week 4 through Week 7. Also, Roger Goodell had no idea what happened inside the elevator with Ray Rice until September 8.

This is Bill wanting to (wink-wink) remind his readers that he got suspended for three weeks because he is a rebel and says things other people don't have the guts to say...or at least says things everyone else has said, but he did it in a more public way in order to gain attention.