Showing posts with label nfl power rankings. Show all posts
Showing posts with label nfl power rankings. Show all posts

Tuesday, June 2, 2015

9 comments MMQB Review: Peter King Inexplicably Does a Power Ranking of NFL Teams in June

Peter King took off last week from writing MMQB and allowed Greg Bedard to fill the factoid vacancy in my soul. Peter's daughter got married and he took a week off to celebrate that life event. Pretty soon Peter will be a grandfather and holy shit I don't want to think about this right now because MMQB will be full of factoids about babies and I'm not going to bring this up ever again. The last we heard from Peter he was battling how his GPS confuses him with the dialect that it uses and was happy with how La'el Collins' agent told the truth after lying. Apparently lying and then eventually telling the truth impresses Peter. This week Peter does the most pointless of all pointless things and makes offseason power rankings (these are the epitome of crowning paper champions before anyone has knowledge enough to crown a paper champion, since training camp hasn't even started yet), talks about his daughter's wedding (I won't talk about it much, but there's a twist!), and Peter is terrified with poor panhandlers try to take his riches. Isn't there something could do with poor people and the homeless? Put them somewhere so that they can't bother others? These jealous ass bitches coming for Peter's riches. Find somewhere to put them or arrest these people who just roam the streets because they have nowhere else to go.

I’ll also have thoughts on the Adrian Peterson contract set-to with Minnesota (surprisingly, I have a little empathy for Peterson),

It's not surprising. He's probably given you a few good quotes as the years have gone by. Peter, you play favorites, so who you do or don't criticize doesn't surprise me at all. If Kim Jong Un gave Peter a few good quotes and was a white quarterback, then Peter would probably have some empathy for him as well.

the colossal loss of Ryan Clady for Denver in the Peyton Manning-protection business,

It's a tough injury, no doubt. There is a reason Peyton Manning doesn't get sacked a lot and it's also because he's very good at avoiding sacks. I have complete faith Manning will be all right. The only colossal loss for Denver in the Manning-protection business would be if Manning lost the ability to feel the pass rush. 

Thanks, first, to Greg Bedard for filling in last week with a memorable column. You got a future in this ridiculously long Monday column, kid.

Meaning, THE MMQB isn't going to let a site staple like MMQB go away once Peter King is done writing it. Meaning, Greg Bedard is (right now) an obvious choice to replace Peter when he retires. That's what I take from this.

Now for a rite of spring. It’s June. (How’d that happen? Where’d the time go?) Time for The MMQB’s 2015 offseason power rankings. The offseason hay is in the barn.

Pointless. It's so pointless, other than to trigger discussion on Twitter and get Peter's opinion out there, to have power rankings in the beginning of June before training camp starts.

Free agency is over, except for the 15-cents-on-the-dollar free agency—which, by the way, is not meaningless;

You are the asshole making 2015 offseason power rankings, not your readers. If anyone doesn't know that cheap free agents signed after June 1 are valuable, it's probably the idiot trying to decide which NFL teams are the strongest on June 1. I'm glad Peter is reminding his readers of a philosophy that he preaches, but of course, doesn't follow himself.

The draft is one month in the rear-view mirror. Though the first practices of training camp are 55 days away, nothing of great substance usually happens between now and the start of official summer practices.

Except for those 15-cents-on-the-dollar free agent signings that Peter claims are not meaningless. Other than those transactions that aren't meaningless, which Peter King forgot about in the span of one sentence, nothing of great substance will happen over the next two months in the NFL.

So let the silly season begin...Let’s see how wrong I can be so long before the NFL’s 96th season. (2014 record in parentheses.)

This is the silly season that Peter King will bitch about and then contribute to by power ranking all of the NFL teams when he admits the rankings will be wrong. 

1. Baltimore (10-6). Why? I trust John Harbaugh to find answers in a league devoid of a truly great team.

But don't worry, Peter has a better reason than THAT. After some rambling, this is how Peter sums it up.

I just think the Ravens will find a way.

And this is why it's pointless to do power rankings in June. The Ravens "will find a way." That's what will happen. Somehow.

2. Seattle (12-4). The addition of Jimmy Graham means so much. He could mean a third straight Super Bowl trip.

Peter King when putting the Ravens at #1: "There is no dominant NFL team."

Peter King when putting the Seahawks at #2: "The NFC team that has been in two straight Super Bowls only got stronger."

Okay, then.

3. Green Bay (12-4). The secondary worries me, as does the pass rush. The Pack’s a trendy pick to get to the Super Bowl, and it wouldn’t surprise me, but a lot will have to go right on defense for that to happen.

Peter King has almost no trust in the Packers defense, yet he believes they are the second-best team in the NFC. You can't make this shit up. Well, Peter does make this shit up, but you hopefully know what I mean.

8. Pittsburgh (11-5). Like Antonio Brown a lot. Like Ben Roethlisberger a lot. But this faith is subject heavily to the ascension of Keith Butler to defensive coordinator after 16 seasons as a defensive assistant below the coordinator level. Mike Tomlin is putting tremendous faith in Butler, who replaces Hall of Famer Dick LeBeau, to be a breath of fresh and productive air. Risky move, and early returns are good. But early returns come in shorts and T-shirts on the South Side of Pittsburgh, not on a cruel Thursday night in Foxboro.

So basically, Peter is knocking the Steelers for Keith Butler not having proven yet that he can replace Dick LeBeau. So this means Peter's biggest issue with the Steelers is that Peter King is doing power rankings in June before any games are played. Again, Peter's problem with Pittsburgh is that they haven't proven the defense can play well under Butler, mostly because they haven't had a chance yet due to how early Peter is doing these power rankings.

10. Arizona (11-5). Maybe the most intriguing team in football.

Yes, maybe. Or maybe not. Only time will tell which NFL team wins the title as "most intriguing team in football," which is obviously factually-based and not simply an opinion one or more people may hold.

11. Indianapolis (11-5). Best team in the AFC South, which isn’t saying much. Still have no clue how the Colts will stop the best offenses in football. I bet Chuck Pagano doesn’t know either.

Well, fortunately for the Colts they don't play the best offenses in football on a weekly basis and are in a division with Blake Bortles/Brian Hoyer/Ryan Mallett/Marcus Mariota/Zach Mettenberger as the quarterbacks leading the opposing offense. So saying, "How are the Colts going to stop the best offenses in football?" is a question any team that has to play these offenses will ask themselves, but the Colts have six games against just bad or so-so offenses. That's nice. How will any team, not just the Colts, stop the best offenses in the NFL?

12. Cincinnati (10-5-1). The running game, and the offensive line, should be enough to make up for Andy Dalton if he struggles. But I don’t think a team can be great unless its quarterback is close to great.

Peter hates Andy Dalton. Since he has the Eagles at #7 does this mean Peter thinks Sam Bradford can be great? No offense, but based on what? Also, the Chiefs are at #4 in Peter's rankings. The idea Alex Smith can be close to great makes me laugh.

14. New Orleans (7-9). Josh Hill, it’s time for your closeup. Drew Brees needs a power tight end with red-zone chops, and you’re it. Or you’d better be.

Best team in the NFC South, huh?

19. St. Louis (6-10). If Nick Foles is really good, the Rams will win 11. If he’s average, they’ll win eight. You see which way I’m leaning.

Marvin Demoff is going to be pissed about this. Though, what can Jeff Fisher do if his quarterback isn't good enough to help him make the playoffs? Nothing to be done about it and this certainly wouldn't be Fisher's fault. On to Los Angeles then...

20. Carolina (7-8-1). Giant question marks at both tackle spots and an offense that can’t afford to lose its quarterback.

There were giant question marks at the tackle spots last year too. And almost no NFL offense can afford to lose its quarterback, so that really means nothing. If losing Newton is a knock against Carolina, then how will the Colts fare without Luck? Can the Colts afford to lose Luck? Can the Dolphins afford to lose Ryan Tannehill? It's funny Peter says the Panthers offense can't afford to lose Newton, since the Panthers were 2-0 without him last year. Both games were against the Buccaneers, but still.

21. Atlanta (6-10). What does new coach Dan Quinn have in store on defense? The pass rush is a question mark coming into the season. And new offensive coordinator Kyle Shanahan needs to find a starting running back and new No. 3 receiver.

This is another reason it is stupid to rank these teams on June 1. Peter says the Falcons need to find a starting running back and No. 3 receiver. Gee, maybe training camp could help this out and it's not a real problem, but there simply hasn't been a chance for Devonta Freeman or Tevin Coleman to show one of them can be that starting running back? I wonder if the search for a new No. 3 receiver will come to a conclusion when Justin Hardy steps on the field in training camp? These power rankings are fun, I get that, but the issues Peter has with these teams can be answered if he would just wait to do a power ranking until later in the summer. Many of these problems aren't problems, but instead are issues whose solution hasn't had a chance to present itself yet.

30. Jacksonville (3-13). This ranking comes from not trusting Blake Bortles—yet—and not trusting a pass rush dealt a horrible blow with the Dante Fowler injury an hour into his NFL career.

Oh my God. Dante Fowler was a rookie who may or may not have been good during his rookie season. It's a bad injury for the Jaguars defense, but stop acting like they lost a proven veteran for the season. Fowler could be Von Miller or he could be Dion Jordan. If Fowler were healthy, how far would Peter have realistically moved them up in the rankings? I'm betting not very far.

32. Tennessee (2-14). I love the Marcus Mariota pick. I don’t love the supporting cast, and he’s not a guy who’s going to be great day one. Or day 24.

How about day 29?

Peter then spends a page discussing his daughter's wedding. I'm going to skip nearly all of this because it's hard to be snarky about a person's wedding without being an asshole. In fact, it's probably hard because it's an asshole thing to do to be snarky about a person's wedding. Here's the twist that isn't really a twist because it's 2015...

For many of you who didn’t like me crossing the line of family life and wanted me to stick with football only, Laura and Mary Beth dropping from sight was just fine. I would urge those to skip to Page 3 of the column right now, because I’m going to spend this page talking about a great event in our lives: the wedding nine days ago of Laura to her girlfriend, Kim Zylker, in California.

Peter King's daughter is not straight. She had, as he termed it on Twitter, "a gay wedding." There's the twist. And we move on...

“Hopefully he can taste some of that meat this year.”

—Philadelphia running back DeMarco Murray, the defending rushing champion, upon hearing that his backup in Dallas last year, Joseph Randle, said Murray didn’t get everything he could have gotten out of his opportunities as a ball-carrier in 2014. Randle’s exact words: “I felt like there was a lot of meat left on the bone.”

Why someone would say that about a rushing champion who carried a team’s running game all season is absolutely bizarre. Or a case of ridiculous envy.

Or the source of this criticism could be considered as coming from someone who shoplifted men's underwear and cologne from a department store and the criticism will be judged accordingly. 

Factoid of the Week That May Interest Only Me

No one in America noticed it, I’m sure. But Aaron Rodgers’ brother Jordan, who had a good chance to win the British Columbia quarterback job in the CFL this season, abruptly quit football last week to pursue a career in television. I don’t blame him, but it was a surprise, especially considering he’s not going to enter TV at a high level.

I'm not entirely sure this is a "fact" more than it is Peter King relaying a story. It's definitely not a "factoid" because factoids are not baby facts, but are trivial bits of information whose accuracy could be questioned.

Mr. Starwood Preferred Member Travel Note of the Week

I don’t mean to be a baby in this space, which I’ve been before.

By "before" Peter clearly means to type "on a near weekly basis."

Nor do I mean to be an alarmist.

But Peter wants us to know that there are poor people out there who need money. Don't be alarmed by this, because generally they don't mean harm. 

But my wife and I spent a couple of post-wedding days in one of our favorite cities, Seattle, last week, and went to see the Mariners on Thursday night. After the game, we walked 1.1 miles from Safeco Field to our hotel in the city. Man, that was one scary walk. To say aggressive panhandling in that city is rampant is an understatement—I guess particularly after night baseball games, when there are folks walking back to their hotels in a good area of the city.

Peter is just trying to walk back to his hotel, which he specifically chose to be in the good part of the city where he wouldn't have to feel uncomfortable, and these people are trying to get money from him. Remember all the times Peter has written "Only in New York" about events that he seems to believe only takes place in New York? Well, I guess there are events and things that happen outside of New York (I know, it's unbelievable) which are not specific only to that city. Peter should have tried walking in downtown Atlanta about a decade ago. Best of luck walking a block without being accosted for money.

We gave three times,

How naive is Peter? Welp, there is his problem. The second he gave money to one panhandler then he's a mark and the others know that Peter has money to give and has given it before. If you give once to a panhandler then expect to be hit up to give up some money again. I even had a panhandler get mad at me one time because I gave his buddy money but not him. You give once, be prepared to give twice. Give twice, be prepared to give thrice.

and after that, we just put our heads down and got back to the hotel.

Which is what you should have done if you had no plans to give money in the first place. I find it very, very difficult to believe that Peter has never experienced aggressive panhandling before. Has he been blessed to only live in areas of Boston and New York where there isn't aggressive panhandling or do those cities just have panhandling under control? I find it hard to believe that Peter has lived in so many big cities and never run into something like this before.

Craziest thing to me: On a brisk 15- to 18-minute walk from a huge sports facility in a major American city to a hotel in a lovely downtown area, we saw zero police officers.

Okay, two things:

1. You said you had your head down for part of the trip, so perhaps there were police officers but you just didn't see them?

2. What would police officers have to do with aggressive panhandling? These panhandlers aren't committing a crime, so what would a police officer do in this situation? These people obviously weren't committing a crime, so does Peter expect a police escort back to his hotel or something? Fine, there should have been police officers around and they weren't around, yet I can't figure out what they would have done in this situation. Advise the panhandlers to leave everyone alone or they will be arrested?


The Minnesota running back stayed away from voluntary offseason workouts for several reasons—one being the fact that he apparently wants more guaranteed money in the three years left on his Vikings deal. 

It's Peterson's right to hold out if he feels he wants more money. I can't imagine a scenario where the Vikings would actually have given him more money, especially since Peterson sat out all last year, running backs are being devalued by some teams, he's already expensive enough and he wanted a trade just a few short weeks ago. I wonder if Peterson would have been willing to miss some games (and therefore paychecks) to hold out for more guaranteed money during the last negotiating round between the union and the NFL? I'm betting not.

Ten Things I Think I Think

1. I think, regarding Adam Schefter’s news break that Tom Brady’s appeal of his four-game suspension will be heard June 23: Why oh why oh why continue to drag this out?

Because Roger Goodell is a demon sent from Hell to annoy NFL fans.

Let’s assume the league announces its decision in July, which is certainly not a lock but likely. That means one of the ugliest stories of the Goodell Era would have been on everyone’s cranium for much of six months. Maybe the league washed its hands of the Wells report and the inordinately long time that took. (I still think 3.5 months for that investigation is too long. Way too long.) But if the league allows final adjudication of the case to drag on two months after the Wells report is issued, that’s on the league. I am all in favor of due process. But the league allowed this story to dominate the offseason, and could have done something about it, and didn’t.

I do wish this story had been resolved more quickly, but I just don't pay attention to it unless I'm covering a column that specifically mentions the Patriots deflating footballs. So the NFL is really only hurting itself by allowing the story to drag out over multiple months. At this point, I don't expect the NFL to have made a decision on Brady's appeal until after he has retired.

2. I think I understand Minnesota coach Mike Zimmer saying about Adrian Peterson: “He can either play for us or he cannot play. He’s not going to play for anyone else.”

Yes, it does seem to be a pretty straightforward statement that is very difficult to not understand.

But there are a couple of obvious things here. One, Peterson really doesn’t want to play for Minnesota. He certainly now has come to the realization that he probably will have to. No team wants to give up a high draft choice for a 30-year-old running back with $44.25 million left on his contract over the next three years—a contract, by the way, that he’s unhappy with.

Yes, but this is not the Vikings problem. What's funny is that Peterson wants MORE guaranteed money when part of the reason he can't be traded is because he makes too much money. He's all, "Oh, you can't trade me because I make too much money? Well, pay me more money then."

Two, Peterson wants more guaranteed money in the back end of the contract. So if you’re the Wilfs, why not end this rancor now and get Peterson back in the good graces of the Vikings (at least by appearances) by guaranteeing a vast portion or all of his 2016 salary?

Because Adrian Peterson might actually accept this and then the Vikings are stuck guaranteeing most of or all of his 2016 salary when they don't want him around either. The Vikings have most of the leverage here. They are already stuck with Adrian Peterson, so why would they have paid him more money just to be stuck with him? This idea doesn't make sense to me.

Then, if Peterson declines to take it, you know you’ve done a more than fair thing to meet Peterson halfway, and it’s on him.

But Peter, the Vikings didn't have to be fair to Peterson. Why in the hell would they be fair to Peterson more than they are already being fair to him? There is no need for the Vikings to potentially take a hit by guaranteeing more money to a player they probably want to get rid of when that player doesn't want to be there either.

5. I think, if I were a guessing man—which I am in this case—I’d guess Dallas defensive end Greg Hardy gets either two or four games reduced from his 10-game domestic-violence suspension.

Though if Peter weren't guessing and he actually had inside information, then this wouldn't be the first time he withheld information he knew until after the fact when he could mention he had heard Hardy's suspension would be reduced by either two or four games. That's one of those things that always amazes me. Something newsworthy happens and NFL sportswriters on Twitter write things like, "That's what I heard too" or "It seemed inevitable" as if they had information they decided not to share until after the fact.

Of course, the question of WHY Hardy's appeal would be reduced doesn't seem to merit a discussion right now. That is information, not just Peter's opinion, that I would find to be interesting.

8. I think the Bears did the right thing, obviously, in letting go Ray McDonald. And the other 31 teams in the league will do the right thing, obviously, in not signing him.

Yes, that seems inevitable at this point. The question when talking about "the right thing" is why didn't teams do "the right thing" prior to the last incident with McDonald? He was involved, but not charged, in an incident in August 2014 and involved with another sexual assault investigation. Just because those two charges didn't stick, it didn't violate this fictional "the right thing" principle for the Bears to sign him?

9. I think when I saw the Patriots and Saints will conduct join practices at the New Orleans camp in mid-August, the first thought that came to my mind was: This is going to be tremendous for Jimmy Garoppolo. Joint practices, particularly with an aggressive defensive coordinator like Rob Ryan on the other side of the line, are good for quarterbacks trying to get a feel for what they’ll see when the real games start.

I'll never understand the respect that Rob Ryan receives from sportswriters. If his name were "Rob Brown" then I can't imagine he would even have a job as a defensive coordinator at this point. He's been a defensive coordinator in the NFL since 2004 and only twice has his defense ranked in the Top 10 of the NFL in yards allowed. His defense has only been in the Top 10 of points allowed once. Ryan should get a job working for Jeff Fisher. Maybe after they both retire they can share their secret for longevity without providing results with the rest of the NFL coaching fraternity.

Yes, Rob Ryan is aggressive, but his defenses have consistently ranked in the lower half of the league during his career. In fact, his defense has only been ranked in the upper half of the NFL in yards allowed three times since 2004.

10. I think these are my non-football thoughts of the week:

e. I’ll take Golden State in the NBA Finals, in six.

BUT PETER, HOW MANY NBA GAMES HAVE YOU WATCHED THIS YEAR? YOU HAVEN'T MADE IT CLEAR YET, BUT ARE YOU A BIG FAN OF THE NBA?

h. Coffeenerdness: Give me Peet’s any day over Starbucks. I don’t dislike Starbucks. I just love Peet’s. I don’t think I’ve ever had a bad espresso shot at Peet’s.

Plus, there are no panhandlers at Peet's who will disrupt Peter's white, upper-class existence. There are always some shady looking Jamaicans hanging outside Starbucks in New York "drinking" coffee, but Peter knows they just want to rob him. Where are the police when you need them? Certainly not prepared to arrest anyone at Starbucks for acting suspiciously, that's where.

j. There are many interesting places to run in San Francisco.

But unfortunately, there aren't quite as many women to stalk while running in San Francisco. There are plenty of women, but they all slow down or speed up as Peter tries to hear their phone conversations.

One I got introduced to while there in the past two weeks: The Presidio, with its challenging hills and arduous hills and did I mention ridiculous hills? Running down into the lovely and picturesque park one morning, I thought it wasn’t so bad. But then, on the 1.2 miles back up toward the neighborhood where I was staying, I’d never been challenged so much in my meager running life. Finishing a 3.9-mile slog was its own reward.

A bigger reward? Peter ran into a pregnant woman talking on her cell phone while walking. Ah yes, fresh prey he could keep up with. Jumping from bush to bush behind her in an attempt to hide so he could listen in to her conversation about the baby shower her friends were throwing for her was it's own reward.  

The Adieu Haiku

Make peace, Zygi Wilf.
Yo Adrian, make peace too.
 
This can’t end ugly.

I'm stupid. I don't get why Wilf would have needed to make peace by guaranteeing more money to Peterson. Greg Bedard didn't do a haiku last week. I miss Greg Bedard already. 

Tuesday, September 17, 2013

5 comments Bill Simmons Does an NFC Power Poll

Bill Simmons has followed up his AFC power poll with an NFC power poll. I briefly discussed the issue with doing the NFC and AFC power polls separately and the issue is that teams won't be ranked in chronological order of their strength, but Bill has tried to remedy this by providing the AFC team names in the respective numerical spot he ranked them in the AFC power poll. It seems kind of silly to me and it just would have been easier to do an NFL power poll with 16 teams on Thursday and 16 teams on Friday, but who I am to question the all-knowing Bill Simmons? I'm nobody and Bill is a somebody. Just ask him. I'm sure Bill would state he is somebody and then use his own opinion of how great he is as proof this is true. So without more rambling, here is Bill's NFC power poll. 

If you missed Grantland's 2013 NFL preview coverage — including my three-part NFL over/under podcast from Vegas with Cousin Sal,

I didn't read or pay attention to any of this stuff, but I wouldn't say I missed it.

If you missed my AFC Power Poll heading into the 2013 season, which went up Thursday afternoon on Grantland, click here. That column included my Baltimore-Denver pick — after I ranked the Ravens ahead of the Broncos and grabbed the +7.5 points, they lost in Denver by 25.

It's almost like there is no science or rules behind gambling and in the end it is all guesswork. This couldn't be true though, right?

Today, we're cranking out an NFC Power Poll. For no extra charge, I included yesterday's AFC rankings within today's column so you could see every team on one list.

BUT WHY DIDN'T YOU JUST PUT THEM ALL IN ONE LIST ORIGINALLY? THIS ISN'T FAIR TO PEOPLE WITH OCD, LIKE MYSELF!

25. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
 

I juggled six possibilities for "NFC's worst team," which is a fancy way of saying, "they're better than anyone in the AFC's bottom seven, only they have the misfortune of playing in a stacked conference."

I'm not sure you can count any conference that has Ron Rivera as the head coach for one of the teams in that conference as "stacked."

Then you have second-year coach Greg Schiano, voted the winner of last November's Sporting News poll for "The Coach You'd Least Want to Play For."

Who else was on this list?

Bill Belichick
Tom Coughlin
Andy Reid
Mike Shanahan
Jim Harbaugh

That's ten Super Bowl appearances and six Super Bowl victories in there. This reminds me of a quote from "The Sopranos" where Tony was trying to stop Christopher Moltisanti from being the whiny bitch he could be at times,

"You don't have to love, but you will respect me."

Exactly. You don't have to love them, but you have to respect them because they win games. I'm not a fan of Greg Schiano, but his name on this list means very little as long as he is successful.

What's more likely — the Bucs making the 2013 playoffs, or Schiano and Freeman being jettisoned out of Tampa five months from now, then Schiano landing a college job and eventually ending up in one of those Mike Rice–type scandals because he attacked some poor sophomore with a tackling dummy?

It's very much more likely the Buccaneers make the 2013 playoffs.

DEAD MEN WALKING
 
24. The Lions of Detroit
 

23. Carolina Panthers

Both teams have killer fantasy QBs (Matt Stafford and Cam Newton) and one-of-a-kind blue-chippers (Calvin Johnson and Luke Kuechly). Both teams were well-represented at your 2013 fantasy draft.

And we all know that fantasy rankings always accurately represent real-life talent.

Know this: I've seen everything I needed to see from the Jim Schwartz and Ron Rivera eras already. It's a shame about the Panthers — blessed with Newton and one of the best defensive front sevens in football — who somehow have gone 2-12 in games decided by seven points or fewer since Newton and Rivera teamed up.

2-13 now. Yippee!

Football Outsiders' excellent DVOA season prediction model likes the 2013 Panthers for that very reason: Bad luck tends to even out over time.

But stupid decision-making stands the test of time. Upon having his previous offensive coordinator inexplicably get a head coaching job with the Browns, Ron Rivera decided to save his job he would turn to Mike Shula to run the offense. That's like a television show having falling ratings and then seeing if Ted McGinley is available to give the show a shot in the arm.

THE SHORT STRAWS
 
22. St. Louis Rams
 

21. Arizona Cardinals
 

We think Jeff Fisher is a good coach even though he has coached 16 full seasons and finished above .500 in only six of them.

I'm completely torn between being happy that more people are noticing Jeff "8-8" Fisher's overratedness and being really sad that Bill Simmons is agreeing with me.

He hasn't won a playoff game since 2003. He's an average coach. Not great, not bad. He's somewhere in the middle.

(whispers) Exactly right.

If it's OK with you, I'm crossing off the Rams. As for the Cardinals, they were looking sleeperish until they lost no. 7 overall pick Jonathan Cooper with a broken leg. (So much for improving their offensive line.)

So Bill was high on the Cardinals until they lost a rookie offensive lineman? At that point he thought, "Well that screws up the entire season" because a rookie offensive lineman got injured? Sounds like Bill had pretty much the entire Cardinals season riding on Cooper, which is especially odd to me. Who the hell has a team's entire season riding on one offensive lineman? It sounds like Bill just wanted an excuse to count the Cardinals out and couldn't think of a different football-related reason.

That reminds me, I went against someone who started Peyton Manning, Wes Welker and Demaryius Thomas in Week 1. It's Friday and I'm down 97.9 points already. Why is fantasy football fun again?

This reminds me, no one cares about the fantasy team of someone they don't know. Who am I kidding though? The Simmonsites care about everything Bill says and does.

A (VERY) FAINT WHIFF OF FRISKINESS
 
20. Philadelphia Eagles
 

Ottawa reader Neil Varan wonders, "Who's the leading candidate for your 2013 Man-Crush?" The answer: Eagles coach Chip Kelly. I love his brain, love his system, love the rapid-fire play thing … I mean, I would have picked the Eagles as my 2013 sleeper if Michael Vick weren't so prominently involved. Last year, we decided that (a) his decision-making just wasn't good enough, (b) it was too hard for him to stay healthy,

It was hard for Vick to stay healthy because he held onto the ball too long. In the Chip Kelly offense he isn't supposed to hold the ball long, so I guess we'll see.

Now he's going to spearhead an offense that runs 85 plays a game and relies on him to make MORE decisions? If Kelly makes this one work in Year 1, he's even better than I thought. And I think he's gonna be great. Eventually.

I'm not sure there is an "eventually" about it. I think Chip Kelly will be great running his offense from his first year in the league and then make the appropriate adjustments once the NFL adjusts to him.

Then again, Indiana reader Rick Vaughn throws something he calls "The Barnwell Theory" at us, explaining, "When Bill Barnwell and the Advanced Stat Troubadours (trademark pending) win the public over and blatantly influence a line, the team in question is guaranteed to prove them wrong. This year's example: Barnwell's regression-laden fingerprints are all over the Colts over/under for season wins (8.5). Quick reminder: they play half their games against the California penal league: Jags twice, Titans twice, Oakland (home), Dolphins (home), San Diego (away), and Cardinals (away). They're 5-3 over that stretch if Gary Hogeboom is under center. I'm guessing 6-2. Yes, they play the NFC West, but let's also consider the 2nd year leap for franchise QBs like Montana, Marino, Elway, and Manning. Three years ago this over/under is 9.5.

Ah yes, it's a Bill Simmons reader who gets his email published because it plugs the column of another Grantland columnist. Not only that, but this is an email from a Simmons reader who makes up statistics as if they are facts and not just something he made up prior to writing the email. So the over/under on wins for a quarterback making the 2nd year leap three years ago was 9.5? What was the over/under five years ago? How about ten years ago? I guess you can prove yourself to be correct if you make up a statistic that helps to prove your point.

I'd say Atlanta (9.5 wins), Minnesota (7 wins) and Carolina (7.5 wins — too high in that case) would be your Barnwell Theory value candidates.

Great, Rick from Indiana you have now made this Barnwell Theory a "thing" that Bill will recite in his mailbags and columns as if it was a fact. Who knows, maybe Bill will just outright steal the theory like he did the Ewing Theory.

THE KARDASHIANS

(shakes head sadly)
 
14. Dallas Cowboys

Who's the best "Overrated, Underrated or Properly Rated?" argument in the entire league? Antonio Ramiro Romo, that's who. You can argue both sides until you're blue in the face. 

So not only is Bill getting ready to argue on under/overratedness, which is an argument that can't be proven definitively one way or another due to it being entirely subjective, but he has just proclaimed Tony Romo as the best topic for this argument, even though Romo being the best topic for this argument can also not be proven definitively one way or another definitively. At this point, nearly everything Bill would write on this topic is purely an opinion that he would try to pass off as a fact.

I'll spare you from having to read it. The stats say that some people underrate Tony Romo while those who use anecdotal evidence say Romo is overrated because he will give the opposing team a turnover at the perfect time they need one. Nothing has been decided in regard to over/underratedness, Bill thinks Romo will be underrated this year.

THE HOVERERS
 
12. New York Giants

But as far as the Super Bowl goes, I thought these two lists were interesting … Over-60 coaches who won the Super Bowl: Tom Coughlin (65), '11 Giants; Dick Vermeil (63), '99 Rams; Weeb Ewbank (61), '69 Jets.

In 2007, I created the Speed Limit Theory for NFL head coaches — once they creep over 55, it starts to get a little dicey. That doesn't mean they can't succeed. Coughlin and Vermeil won Super Bowls. Marty Schottenheimer won 14 games when he was 63. Marv Levy made four straight Super Bowls in his 60s.

Bill created this theory and then of course Tom Coughlin won two Super Bowls while being over the age of 55, while Bill Belichick made it two Super Bowls while being 54 years old and 58 years old.

35-and-over QBs who won the Super Bowl: John Elway (37, 38), '97 and '98 Broncos; Jim Plunkett (36), '83 Raiders; Roger Staubach (35), '77 Cowboys.

Wow, I'm not sure how this pertains to the New York Giants since Eli Manning isn't over the age of 35---

A couple of points: First, the 2013 Patriots have a 61-year-old coach AND a 36-year-old QB. They'd be making history twice by winning the Super Bowl — it's one of many reasons why I'm picking against them winning a fourth Super Bowl.

But...but...we aren't talking about the Patriots. We are talking about the New York Giants. The Patriots have already been discussed and are in the AFC, not the NFC.

Second, only two QB-coach combos have ever had their combined ages exceed 90 and still win a Super Bowl: Coughlin and Eli Manning in 2011 (95), and Vermeil and Kurt Warner in 1999 (91).

I always love it when Bill does simple math, creates a half-assed theory and then believes it means something. Bill likes to create complicated theories that can easily be summed up in another fashion. Basically, older quarterbacks generally don't win Super Bowls very often and older head coaches don't win Super Bowls very often. So the odds of an older head coach and an older quarterback winning a Super Bowl together are not high.

By the way, John Fox and Peyton Manning's ages add up to 95. It's not often an older quarterback wins a title and it's not often he wins the title with an older coach. There doesn't need to be a made-up theory to help prove this.

Third, Coughlin is two years older than my dad (who spent three hours sitting in the sun for a Saturday Red Sox–Dodgers game last month and was basically delirious for the next 36 hours), 

I'm guessing Tom Coughlin, who happens to be a football coach and is used to being in the sun, probably is in better shape than Bill's dad. It wouldn't be a Bill Simmons column if he didn't try to attribute something to his friends or family that isn't necessarily attributable to just them.

I'm not saying he can't win the Super Bowl — shit, Tom Coughlin might be superhuman for all we know.

He did win a Super Bowl two apparently very, very long years ago in 2011, a time when Bill Simmons seems to believe Tom Coughlin was a decade younger than he is now.

I'm just pointing out that we have nearly 50 years of Super Bowl data at our disposal right now — only the 1993 Bills made the Super Bowl with a coach in his late 60s (Levy, age 68) and an over-30 QB (Jim Kelly, age 33). So if the 2013 Giants win the Super Bowl, they really will be making history. If it's all right, I'm picking against it.

Typical Bill Simmons. Notice how he is picking against the Giants for completely non-football related reasons. He has no clue how to pick against them based on their roster, so he makes up some theory in order to pick against them that way. At least count them out for a reason that is football-related.

I am slowly coming to the conclusion that Bill Simmons doesn't understand sports outside of NBA basketball. He tends to shy away from actually analyzing a team's strengths and weaknesses and prefers to focus on half-assed theories that will help lead him to the conclusion he is incapable of reaching while using analysis and a sports-related line of thought. Maybe not, but it seems Bill's default mechanism is to create a theory to explain something rather than just explain it in easier terms.

11. Chicago Bears 

It's time for my annual "I know I discounted you in my over/under podcast with Cousin Sal, but I thought about it some more and now I think you're gonna be good" flip-flop pick! 

Much like in the AFC Preview, Bill has chosen to play both sides with certain teams. If the Bears stink then he can claim his original point of view was correct, but if they are good then he can point out he knew the Bears would be good. Bill is terrified of being seen as wrong, so playing both sides works out well for him.

I love everything I'm reading about Marc Trestman — if he gets Jay Cutler and Matt Forte going, and Cutler can shed his QBPTSD issues after three years of pummelings (this photo spread is incredible), you'd have to throw Chicago into that six-team circle of "Teams That Can Win The Super Bowl."

Bill thinks the Bears are one of the six teams that can win the Super Bowl, but ranks them 11th in his power rankings and doesn't have them winning their Wild Card round game. So I guess they "can" win the Super Bowl, but Bill doesn't seem to think they will, except he said they can so either way he gets to be right and doesn't have to worry about being wrong and that's all that matters.

Thanks to the salary cap, the scheduling, unpredictable injuries and the NFL's love for parity, it's become harder and harder for one team to just dominate for five straight months and win the Super Bowl. You just want to be one of the five or six teams with a legitimate chance in January — you want to get to the point where a couple of Jacoby Jones–Rahim Moore plays swing your way and suddenly you're holding the trophy.

Oh, so now Bill is predicting which NFL teams will have the most amount of luck this year. I'm sure there is a theory to follow.

Anyway, we've reached the point of the Power Poll in which any of these 12 teams have a chance to make that circle. 

Oh, so the six-team circle is now a twelve-team circle. You know what, let's just make it a thirty-two team circle and get it over with.

I don't trust Cutler's track record enough to stick Chicago in that circle yet, but I see them sniffing around it in January.

Well I guess the Bears are out of the circle now. Let me sum up Bill's statements on the Bears:

-He doesn't think they will be very good this year.

-He has changed his mind and thinks they will be good and are the 11th best team in the NFL.

-They are one of six teams that can win the Super Bowl.

-There are actually one of twelve teams that can win the Super Bowl.

-The Bears probably aren't good enough to win the Super Bowl.

No contradictions in there, right?

(If I offered every Packers fan 10 and 6 and the no. 5 seed right now, would they take it? I bet they would.)

THEY WOULD BILL! THEY WOULD TAKE THIS! YOU ARE ALWAYS SO RIGHT BECAUSE YOU ARE BILL SIMMONS!

I think if you offered fans of 26 of 32 teams in the NFL a 10-6 season and a fifth seed they would take it. I'm not sure why Bill seems to think because the Packers have a difficult schedule he is going really far out on on a limb in saying the Packers fans would accept a 10-6 season with a No. 5 seed in the playoffs.

Second, the Saints went 7-9 last year … and the coaching upgrade from the Superdome janitor to Sean Payton has to be worth at least a plus-4 WARM.

That's not a real thing...well, it is a real thing but people who don't strive to be the most clever person in the room will simply say "Having Sean Payton back has to be worth four additional wins for the Saints."

(There's a fourth reason that I hesitate to mention: Somehow I ended up with Aaron Rodgers as my starting QB in both fantasy leagues. I've had terrible fantasy football mojo ever since the glorious 2007 season, when I rode LaDainian Tomlinson, rookie Adrian Peterson and Wes Welker to my West Coast title, nearly went undefeated — jinxing that quest by stupidly writing about it — and spent way too much time crowing about it afterward. The following year, I built my season around Tom Brady and it was gone in eight minutes. I've never been the same — it's the fantasy equivalent of the Pirates losing Bonds and going into a two-decade tailspin. I haven't come close to winning a title since. Now I have all my eggs in the Aaron Rodgers basket. If I'm a fantasy mush, this can't be good for the Packers. If you don't believe me — again, it's Friday and I'm down by 97.9 points in one of my leagues right now. Sorry, Packers fans. I'm apologizing in advance.)

Please do tell me more about your fantasy team. In fact, give us a year-by-year breakdown of your fantasy seasons including your own personal thoughts on each season while including as much whining as possible.

Also, everyone spent the offseason (a) figuring out how to stop the read-option (which caught everyone by surprise last year), and (b) blowing smoke up Colin Kaepernick's butt and treating him like a superstar even though he's started only 10 games. I kept waiting for everything to go to his head in the form of a "My Name Is Colin" music video …

Then Bill links the "My Name is Willie" video from "Any Given Sunday" because we all know movies are exactly like real life. 

Think about how much Baltimore struggled last night with subpar receivers once they fell behind, think about San Francisco falling behind by 17 or more in their last two playoff games, then think about having money on San Francisco anytime they're down 10 this season. It's a little nerve-racking. Seriously, what if the league figures out that read-option?

Then it appears Colin Kaepernick will successfully sling the ball all around the field and with the help of the 49ers very good defense do his best to help the 49ers come back to win the game. 

3. Atlanta Falcons

Barnwell made an impressive regression case for them on Grantland, which corresponded nicely with Vegas's surprisingly low over/under of 9½ for them. (RICK VAUGHN ALERT!) I'm going the other way: I loved the way the Falcons played in the playoffs. I liked their draft. I think Steven Jackson has 2004 Corey Dillon potential.

Naturally, there is no more apt comparison to Steven Jackson than a comparison to a New England Patriots running back. It's not like there has ever been another free agent running back who joined a new team that ended up making the Super Bowl.

More importantly: We just watched the future of pro football in last night's Broncos-Ravens game. In the third quarter, the combination of Denver's pace with the altitude and Baltimore's offense falling into a three-and-out rut was absolutely deadly. You could see Baltimore's defense fading as that quarter dragged on. They couldn't handle it.

The Falcons and the Patriots ran a hurry-up offense long before the Broncos ran one with Peyton Manning. Not to mention, Atlanta doesn't play their home games at a high altitude so I'm not sure what the Denver altitude has to do with the Falcons. The future of pro football "we" saw in the Broncos-Ravens game seems irrelevant as it pertains to the Falcons. The Falcons were already running the hurry-up offense and they play in a dome, not in a high altitude.

If you have a franchise QB and a couple big playmakers, and you can rip off plays at a breakneck pace, that's the single biggest advantage of the "Nobody's Allowed To Crush Receivers Over The Middle Anymore" era.

If a team has a franchise QB and a couple playmakers I think that's an advantage no matter what pace that teams plays at, no?

But you need the right QB, you need the home-field advantage, you need the big-play guys, and you need to be REALLY good at the no-huddle thing. Atlanta checks all four of those boxes

And yet, this advantage didn't get them to the Super Bowl last year and this year they have a shakier offensive line and a younger, less experienced defense. Who am I to argue with Bill's ability to make a list and check off boxes though?

1. Seattle Seahawks

Year after year after year, I can see the Niners and Seahawks measuring themselves against one another, lobbing potshots at each other, making sketchy roster moves clearly intended to piss off the other team (Chris Harper, everybody!)

I'm not sure this was a sketchy roster move since the Seahawks released Harper on their own accord fully knowing a division rival could claim him.

If it gets REALLY good, once or twice, we'll see a free agent switch from one side to the other for more money, and we'll all consider him a massive traitor — like how Red Sox fans felt about Johnny Damon in 2006.

I think Bill is getting a little bit (well, a lot) ahead of himself here.

It's going to be fantastic. I can't wait. But for 2013? I think it's Seattle's year. In Russell Wilson we trust.

No, in Russell Wilson you trust. "We" aren't you and you don't speak for "we." 

Monday, September 16, 2013

4 comments Bill Simmons Does an AFC Power Poll

Bill Simmons is very rude. He posts his columns at the end of the week to where I have to generally wait until Monday to start writing about his columns. This week he has posted an AFC power poll on Thursday and an NFC power poll on Friday. There was no chance I could get to this before Week 1 of the NFL season. I wish he were a little more thoughtful towards those who want to criticize him on a blog.

So Bill has made up an AFC power poll. Of course he does it in the most idiotastic way possible, in that he doesn't do an entire NFL power poll, but a power poll for each conference so the teams aren't ranked in chronological order. Also, Bill wants to remind us he loves Patriots football, or at least he will until the Patriots stop making the playoffs and he becomes an NFL widow.

For the surprisingly cheap price of $765 million, the NFL put the first installment of the concussion fiasco in its rearview mirror — allowing us to feel slightly better about retired players who died prematurely or live impaired lives, pretend the NFL isn't this generation's version of the cigarette industry, and try to think about something other than "THOSE GUYS KNEW" every time somebody mentions Paul Tagliabue, Roger Goodell or anyone who owned a team in the 1990s or 2000s.

Kind of a rough comparison of the NFL to the cigarette industry. Both are inherently dangerous, but I'm not sure it should require any type of scientific research to know football is a dangerous sport. It's a group of guys hitting each other with their bodies. That's just not safe. Perhaps the same goes for inhaling smoke into your lungs. Also, I feel sympathy for the retired players who died prematurely or live impaired lives but I don't feel bad for enjoying the sport of football. Sorry.

I love following the NFL, love the Super Bowl, love the Patriots, love picking games, love gambling on the games, love being in fantasy leagues, love the fact that there are 40 years of memories in my brain right now, love Monday Night Football, love the playoffs, and, over everything else, love those 17 Sundays from September through December. It's a ritual. They are 17 of my favorite days every year. I can't give them up just because the league happens to be owned and operated by a bunch of greedy, manipulative hypocrites.

Well enough of this "Bill writes like a sports fan again" shit, let's allow Bill to show us just how incredibly creative and intelligent he is by trying to be the funniest, most clever guy in the room.

Anyway, here's the plan for Thursday and Friday: a two-part NFL Power Poll featuring the AFC today (including a Ravens-Broncos pick) and the NFC tomorrow (including the rest of the Week 1 picks). Without further ado …

Whatever, it's how Bill wants to do his power poll, but if you are ranking teams it generally makes more sense to rank all of the teams together in one column so the #14 team isn't posted on Thursday and the #13 team posted on Friday.

THE ROD MARINELLI DIVISION

Couldn't Bill at least name the divisions after current head coaches? Just try to be a little more modern. The Ron Rivera Division is dying to be used.

It's bad enough to blow a few high picks — it's another thing to throw away your first round for an entire decade. That's the no. 1 reason why the Raiders are your runaway favorites for Drowney for Clowney.

Can we put a moratorium on creating names for the act of tanking to land a player in the draft, whether it be the NBA, NHL, MLB, or NFL Draft? Drowney for Clowney isn't a very good name and these names only fit when there is an actual word for tanking that rhymes with the player's name.

I can't wait for the "Tanking for Towns" phrase that will be given to NBA teams who lose to land Karl Towns in the 2015 NBA Draft.

Other reasons include the Terrelle Pryor era, the Matt Flynn error, a 2013 payroll made up of 38 percent "dead money," an almost unprecedented lack of blue-chip talent, bad mojo from their expiring stadium lease,

The Raiders have enough issues without you making up another one that doesn't make sense and isn't real, as if you are trying to be Gregg Easterbrook.

31. New York Jets 
Had my West Coast fantasy auction on Tuesday night. More than 100 players were called out before we had our first Jet — Chris Ivory — followed by someone asking, "Was that the first Jet?" then everyone laughing when we realized that,

You and your friends sound like you are a fucking hoot. I imagine the scene actually went like this with everyone laughing together (At the 1:04 minute mark and if you haven't viewed this scene from Anchorman, it got cut and is on "Wake Up Ron Burgundy" and would have been one of the 10 funniest scenes in the original movie). Anyway, this is how I imagine Bill and his friends laughing...

yes, it was the first Jet, followed by a second round of laughter when Ivory went for seven bucks. J … E … T … S … JETS JETS JETS!!!!

The opinion of Bill and Bill's friends is indicative of Chris Ivory's true value. Bill and his friends set the price for what every NFL player is worth in a fantasy league.

When the Bizarro Heidi Bowl between the Jets and Raiders happens in Jersey on December 8, CBS should dangle Clowney above the field like a WWE Money in the Bank suitcase.

No, they probably should not do this.

30. Buffalo Bills
There's a case to be made here, but you'd probably need a few drinks in you.

This is the point where Bill writes a footnote to remind us of three things:

1. He went to Vegas.

2. He got drunk.

3. He doesn't like the Bills as much as he did on his podcast.

Or, you'd need to be doing a hungover podcast in Vegas while working on five hours' sleep. That was me last week. Yes, I have changed my mind on the Bills since last week's three-part podcast. The Bears, too. I'm not gonna apologize, either.

Don't apologize, but also don't start talking about how you knew the Bears and Bills were going to have a good year and later claim you should have stuck to your first instinct. You were wrong and don't get credit for changing your mind.

Then Bill relates an email from a Bills fan who is whining about his team's existence in the world and all of the problems that relate to the team. If there was one part of Bill's legacy at ESPN I could wipe away (and there are quite a few) it may be the fact he seemed to start the whole "Listing all the things wrong with my favorite team and whining about how bad is it to be a fan of Team X" trend he seemed to have started. We all whine about our teams at some point, but don't whine only in the effort to gain sympathy. It's unbecoming.

29. Jacksonville Jaguars
I mean … how are three 2013 teams worse than the team saying the words "Let's take one more season to figure out what we have with Blaine Gabbert"?

I don't know. You are the one ranking these teams, not me. Stop acting as if what you are writing is stone cold fact and not simply your opinion. There may not be three worse teams than the Jaguars, but you are giving your opinion there is, but it's not a fact, and you could change the order these teams are ranked prior to publishing this column.

Translation: Get ready for another round of blacked-out Chargers home games within a 150-mile radius of San Diego. I'm ready to start making up fake Philip Rivers trades for you, Chargers fans. Just give me the green light. Say the word.

Because anyone who reads Bill's column is too damn stupid to think of fake Philip Rivers trades themselves so naturally only Bill is smart enough to think of fake Philip Rivers trades. What's really bad is there are probably thousands of Bill's Simmonsites that will eagerly await Bill's attempt at fake Philip Rivers trades as they refresh their computer screen 100 times per hour on a Friday afternoon hoping for a column from their idol.

Here, I'll do the fake trade for Bill. It's not hard.

Philip Rivers to Jacksonville for a 2nd round pick and Justin Blackmon.

Philip Rivers to New York Jets for a 1st round pick.

Philip Rivers to Tennessee for a 3rd round pick and 4th round pick.

These trades may all suck, but it doesn't take a genius to think of a Philip Rivers trade.

27. Tennessee Titans
Four weeks: That's the over/under for Ryan Fitzpatrick stealing the starting job from a struggling Jake Locker, playing well for two games, getting Titans fans excited, getting scooped up in your fantasy league, and then falling apart faster than Season 2 of Homeland


It's a pop culture reference! Bill understands Season 2 of "Homeland" wasn't very good and then used this understanding to make a reference to a future event in sports. Unparalleled!

Hold on, we're about to make history … 

26. Miami Dolphins
That's right, our SEVEN WORST TEAMS come from the American Football Conference. 


If there is a person who has read a Bill Simmons column and for some inexplicable reason can't understand why he is so irritating, point them to these two sentences. These power rankings are Bill's opinion, but he is talking about "making history" because the seven worst teams (in all caps those words are written because it is so fucking historic) come from the AFC. It's Bill's opinion. All of this is Bill's opinion. There's no history being made and there is no way a reader can believe "making history" is tongue-in-cheek because Bill considers his own opinion to be fact. This is a guy who wants to be the VP of Common Sense for a professional sports team and has openly campaigned for two NBA GM jobs. He really, really values his own opinion.

In Miami's case, GM Jeff Ireland can't stop making splashy moves that anger the salary cap gods and don't seem to have any recognizable human logic behind them.

There are no football gods. They are just a bunch of random coincidences thrown together like a leaf floating in the breeze (camera slowly pans away as I sit on a bench looking at the sky as the "Forrest Gump Suite" plays in the background).

Just know that "We gotta do something to get the fans talking!" is almost always the sports-management equivalent of "We gotta get into a land war in Asia!"

Do I love all the Dolphins moves? No, but they are defensible. The idea of giving Ryan Tannehill receives other than Brian Hartline and Devone Bess to throw the football too isn't a bad idea. Sure, they spent a lot on Mike Wallace, but Tannehill needs weapons in the passing game. I can defend the offensive moves the Dolphins made (well, other than having Jonathan Martin at left tackle...yikes), so I don't know about criticizing the Dolphins for trying to improve the offense around Tannehill.

Important note: Even if the AFC has the seven worst teams, that doesn't mean those teams will have the seven worst records — since every AFC team plays 12 AFC games and four NFC games, the sheer math makes it impossible.

Okay, I think I get it, but I feel like this is Bill Simmons wiggling his way out of stating the AFC has the seven worst teams in the NFL. He loves to play both sides of the fence and I won't forget this.

I don't care how it plays out, as long as Tennessee doesn't somehow stumble into 10 wins, a no. 6 seed and a Round 1 matchup in New England. Even the remote possibility of "Gregg Williams," "Bernard Karmell Pollard" and "Tom Brady" landing in the same sentence is my second-most frightening moment of 2013,

That sound you hear is Bill running this joke into the ground as hard as possible.

19. Pittsburgh Steelers
Ten years of Roethlisberger! He's thrown for 3,600 yards only twice. He's thrown more than 21 touchdowns only three times. And yet, he's probably headed for 45,000 yards and the Hall of Fame. The highlights: two Super Bowls, one of the great throws of all time (to win the Super Bowl against Arizona), and the championship belt as this generation's "I can't believe he got that third down, we had him sacked five times" QB (which he'll be handing off John Cena–style to Russell Wilson soon).


But if Terry Bradshaw makes it to the Hall of Fame then Ben Roethlisberger has to make it as well. On a different note, I'm not a professional wrestling fan, so I find these wrestling references to be really, really irritating. I also like how Bill has cherry-picked the statistics for Roethlisberger. Doesn't 3,600 yards and 21 touchdown as a cut-off seem a bit arbitrary? It is arbitrary because Roethlisberger has been injured, but he has thrown for 235 yards per game during his career, which is good for 17th all-time. Yes, most of the names on that list are modern players, but Roethlisberger's injuries have held his numbers down a little bit.

Meanwhile, here's a fun e-mail from Matt in Annapolis, Maryland: "I got a theory on NFL head coaches. The easier you can imagine a head coach doing the Pacino 'Inches Speech' from Any Given Sunday, the better the Head Coach.

I've got a theory about this theory. It's fucking stupid.

My top five coaches in no order who could nail that speech is Belichick, Coughlin, both Harbaugh brothers, and Shanahan. It's no coincidence that those coaches are considered to be among the best in the NFL. 

This is the mental midgetry that occurs within Bill's diehard fan base. This guy writes in saying he has a theory that the easier he can imagine a head coach doing a speech from "Any Given Sunday" then the better that coach is. Then this guy gives his Top 5 coaches who he can most easily think of giving this speech and LO AND BEHOLD these are the best coaches in the NFL who can imagine making these speeches. How amazing that the reader's own opinion supports the hypothesis that he has floated?

These are Bill's readers who want to write like him. They do write just like Bill. This guy floats a theory and then uses his own damn opinion to support that his theory is correct. He's essentially citing his own opinion as why his theory is correct. Bill has done this same thing through most of his time at ESPN and Grantland.

"I'm correct because I agree with myself!"

It's shocking to me some of Bill's fans know how to breathe on their own or able to live their day-to-day lives without accidentally walking into traffic.

Number 32 is Jason Garrett. How would you rank the NFL coaches from best to worst in being able to deliver the 'Inches Speech'?"

"Please justify my existence by agreeing with me that my theory is correct because I agree with myself."

Matt, you may have stumbled upon something magical here.

"Welcome to my inner circle, where you only need your own opinion as verification that your theories are correct."

I think nine coaches could deliver that speech: the five you mentioned along with Mike Tomlin, Sean Payton, Pete Carroll and Chuck Pagano. And let's be honest — even if he's going to be cohosting Inside the NFL in 10 weeks or less, Rex Ryan could absolutely belt out that speech, maybe even while rubbing someone's feet. I don't have a feel for the new coaches yet, but of our incumbents, Garrett, Mike Smith and Gary Kubiak would be the worst — telling group of names, right? —

But...but...Bill, you may not entirely understand this theory. Rex Ryan isn't one of the best coaches in the NFL and Mike Smith and Gary Kubiak are two of the better coaches. So I don't know, it all seems like an opinion to me, but if you can't see Mike Smith or Gary Kubiak belting out this speech then maybe the theory is shit. Also, there's no way in hell I can see Bill Belichick giving that speech from "Any Given Sunday." But whatever, I won't allow myself to be dragged down into this abyss of idiocy any further.

16. Indianapolis Colts
The case for regression: year after Chuck Strong; less luck in close games; schedule not as cream-puffish; a Vick Ballard–Ahmad Bradshaw running back combo;


A Bradshaw-Ballard combination wouldn't be bad if Bradshaw stays healthy. These two combined for 432 carries and 1829 yards last year. That's 27 carries and 114.3 yards per game, which would have put the Colts 17th in the NFL in rushing just based on these two running backs' stats alone.

a variety of free-agent signings that left everyone lukewarm;

And we all know from experience that the better free agent signings a team makes the better that team's chances of winning the Super Bowl. If the free agent signings don't make a splash then that team can't be successful.

Also, Luck has become weirdly underrated compared to the more ballyhooed Kaepernick–Griffin–Wilson trio. In my West Coast fantasy auction, Kaepernick went for 20 bucks, Griffin went for 13, Wilson went for eight, and Luck went for six. 

Fantasy drafts do not reflect reality. This is Bill Simmons at his worst. Because Bill and his friends underrated Andrew Luck then Andrew Luck must be wildly underrated by everyone. After all, Bill and his friends reflect what society as a whole must think. Not that Bill has a high opinion of himself or anything.

Less than two years ago, we were joking about "Suck for Luck" and not batting an eyelash when Indy dumped Peyton Manning to take Luck over Griffin.

Seriously, "we" weren't doing this. "You" aren't "we."

When in doubt, lean toward regression history. I guess. I look forward to flip-flopping my opinion on the 2013 Colts another 20 times.

But when the Colts do regress you can bet Bill will link this column and tell us that he predicted it would happen.

The stakes for Cleveland's new brain trust, as pointed out by a Cincinnati reader named Clark: "Since 1999, the Browns have more staph infection lawsuits against them (2) than playoff appearances (1)." In other words, what's the rush?

The Patriots have had more players arrested for murder than Super Bowl victories since 2005. Fun with numbers!

And that's what the Browns are offering them this season: Instead of panicking and trying to win right away with one of those goofy Carson Palmer–type trades, they're building around their lines, their defense, their running game, the Dawg Pound and a relentless series of 13-10 games. (UNDER!) It's a marathon, not a sprint. I fully approve, and please don't think this opinion was tainted by the fact that Browns GM Mike Lombardi came on my podcast at least 320 times since 2008.

Oh don't worry, Bill. I know your opinion is tainted by the fact you like Mike Lombardi. This is how the media works. They don't bash their friends.

(Here's how you know I'm in the bag for the Browns: We're 2,300 words into this column and I haven't made a joke yet about the new Dream Team … that's right, Norv Turner and Brandon Weeden.

Bill isn't in the bag for the Browns, he's in the bag for a friend of his who is willing to appear on his podcast. Come on, Bill not making fun of a 30 year old quarterback and Norv Turner? There's no way Bill wouldn't make fun of this combination if one of Bill's friends didn't run the team. Bill has no idea who Rob Chudzinski is, but rest assured, he's the type of guy who has three quality running backs when he is an Offensive Coordinator and ensures the quarterback leads the team in rushing yards.

I really do think the Browns can squeeze out 9-7.

No you don't. You like Mike Lombardi and are blinded by this fact.

In my 2012 season preview, you might remember me creating a stat called "WARM" ("Wins Above Raheem Morris") to capture those season-to-season bumps teams get just by upgrading their head coach position. I cited San Francisco going from Mike Singletary to Jim Harbaugh (plus-7 WARM), then said 2012's best WARM bets were Tampa going from Morris to Greg Schiano (final result: plus-3 WARM) and Indy replacing Jim Caldwell's mannequin with Chuck Pagano (final result: plus-9 WARM).

Another example of just how much Bill thinks of his own opinion. It's not a statistic if the statistical analysis behind it only consists of your opinion. Bill truly thinks his creation of a number using his opinion is a statistic. It's not a stat. It's Bill guessing how many wins a new head coach will have compared to how many wins the old head coach had the previous year.

And by the way, you don't have to be a cross between Vince Lombardi and Bill Parcells to be a historically good WARM guy. Here are the seven best WARM seasons ever, according to four and a half minutes of furious Googling:

Tony Sparano, 2008 Dolphins: plus-10 … replaced Cam Cameron.
Chuck Pagano, 2012 Colts: plus-9 … replaced Jim Caldwell.
Al Davis, 1963 Raiders: plus-9 … replaced Bill Conkright and Marty Feldman.
Roy Andrews, 1929 Giants: plus-8.5 … replaced Earl Potteiger.
Bill Parcells, 1997 Jets: plus-8 … replaced Rich Kotite.
Ted Marchibroda, 1975 Colts: plus-8 … replaced Howard Schnellenberger and Joe Thomas.
Ted Marchibroda, 1992 Colts: plus-8 … replaced Ron Meyer and Rick Venturi.


Right, but it's not a statistic since it can't be measured before the season begins by anything but guessing. There is no analysis required prior to the season other than simply guessing how many wins a head coach will improve a team's record from the previous season. I could say Gus Bradley will have the highest WARM this season with a +10, but it's just my opinion. As usual has muddied the situation to make himself seem smarter. Bill has found a more difficult way of saying "which new head coach most improved a team's record from one season to the next?" in an effort to make it seem like he is being more creative than he really is.

Also, notice how Bill says "you don't have to be a cross between Vince Lombardi and Bill Parcells" to make this list. Who is on the list? Bill Parcells. So you don't have to be a cross between Lombardi and Parcells, but it could help if you are Bill Parcells.

On the bright side … points! LOTS OF THEM! They're running a perfect version of everyone's favorite 3-WR Madden offense with deep threat Demaryius Thomas stretching the field, Welker as the slot guy, Eric Decker zipping to open spots and Pick-Any-Back catching delayed screens out of the backfield. That offense always works best in video games when you have an insanely accurate QB, right? Throw in the no-huddle and it's mildly terrifying. I see a slew of 38-34 games in their future.

This very well could happen. Of course John Fox also realizes his offense will score points so as long as the defense makes the opposing team work hard to score then the Broncos could avoid these 38-34-type games.

They also have Joe Flacco riding higher than everyone on the left couch during the James Franco roast. In the span of six weeks last winter, he went from no. 17 in my QB Power Poll and someone headed for the franchise QB tag to …

Yet again, this is Bill using his own opinion as proof of something Bill is trying to prove. It's insane to me. I don't understand how Bill can't see that using his own opinion doesn't help to prove his point. Is there no other list ranking quarterbacks Bill could use? Of course not, because Bill's opinion is the only opinion that matters.

B. Owner of the "QB You'd Want In A Big Game" title belt (replacing Eli Manning).

This isn't a real title belt and Bill probably just changes this award around every year depending on which quarterback displayed the most clutchiness the year before. 

Then again, I'm old enough to vividly remember 1989 Montana; I remember finishing that Super Bowl thinking, I am never gonna see ANYONE that good again — not in my entire life.

It's quite a quandary trying to figure out which quarterback had the better postseason between Flacco and Montana. These are Bill's problems. Fortunately, Bill remembers his opinion on Montana from 1989 so that settles this question indefinitely.

I've written about this before, but if you graded a team's QB and coach from 1 to 10, and your combined total doesn't add up to 13 — at least — then you're hopeless in the playoffs. Flacco is a 7 during the season and a 9 in the playoffs. John Harbaugh is probably a straight 9.

My head hurts. I rank Cam Newton and Ron Rivera a 19, so that means the Panthers aren't hopeless in the playoffs! I love using my own subjective opinion to try and prove something as factual.

There's only one problem, which Chicago reader Adam Roberts brings up: "Are the Bengals going to make the Good Bad-Team thing become boring and take the crown for the 3rd straight year? Of all the Good Bad-QBs, Dalton has to be one of the best. And Marvin Lewis has proven time and time again that he is a pretty Good Bad-Coach. They have to be the Good Bad-Team favorite coming into the season, right?"

That's not even close to being a thing. The amount of shit that gets made up by Bill and his readers is mind boggling.

4. Houston Texans
In 2011, they might have had the best playoff team … but Matt Schaub went down and that become a "What if Schaub didn't go down?" season for them.
In 2012, we thought they might have the best team again … but the Patriots annihilated them in Week 14, then again in Round 2, followed by everyone wondering if you could realistically win a Super Bowl with Schaub.

To recap: They didn't win in 2011 because Schaub got injured, but they didn't win in 2012 because he was healthy? That's confusing.

It's not really confusing. The Texans started their third-string rookie quarterback in the 2011 playoffs and this wasn't an ideal situation compared to the Texans having Schaub as their starter. It's also not confusing because some wondered after the 2012 playoffs if Schaub could have helped the Texans win another playoff game. No one knew how good Schaub was in the playoffs until the 2012 season.

(By the way, I'm more confused than anyone — I argued both sides over these past two years.

This is not shocking at all to hear.

There's a very good chance Hernandez killed multiple people — including poor Odin Lloyd, who wasn't just killed but executed like it was a freaking Cinemax movie.

What? "...like it was a freaking Cinemax movie"? I don't get this reference. So movies on Cinemax are known for portraying people being executed? I didn't know Cinemax was known as the channel to watch executions in movies. Maybe this is a "Strike Back" reference, but that is a television show not a movie. This is a bizarre pop culture reference in my opinion.

This summer, fans were allowed to exchange Hernandez jerseys in the Patriots Pro Shop, for free, for any other Patriots jersey. I can't remember that happening before.

You can't remember Patriots fans being able to exchange their Hernandez jerseys in at the Patriots Pro Shop for free, for any other Patriots jersey? This seems like a rather specific situation so I'm not sure that's shocking this hasn't happened before.

(Yes, I know what Bill means, but it's so much more fun to take him literally)

So really, the Patriots organization handled the Hernandez crisis correctly: They said barely anything, allowed those days and weeks to trickle by, kept that curtain up, and counted on their fans to eventually move on and move forward because that's what fans always do. Maybe it was a cold way for the Patriots to handle it, but hey, this is a cold league — as that $765 million settlement just showed us.

Yeah, it was pretty cold for the NFL to hand out $765 million to players who suffered injuries while playing the sport. What a burn!

The 2013 Patriots will go 11-5 or 12-4 like they always do. They'll be in the mix in January, like they always are. I will root for them, like I always do. We always come back.

Deep. So deep. Bill always tends to write a column full of pop culture references, stupid theories proposed by himself and his readers, and then try to wrap the column up with some sort of deep, meaningful thought. It's like he desires to be thoughtful in his writing, but isn't sure how to do it. 

Up next in a couple of days is the NFC Power Poll...

Tuesday, October 16, 2012

9 comments MMQB Review: Nobody Knows Anything about the NFL, but Here's What Peter Knows Edition

Last week in Peter King's MMQB we learned that God helped the Colts beat the Packers and the Jaguars new owner is very interested in starting a massive Jaguars fan base overseas in London, probably at the expense of the Jaguars fans in Jacksonville. It's fine to cultivate overseas markets, but I can't help but wonder the effect this will have on the Jaguars Jacksonville-based fan base. Not that the Jacksonville fans should matter of course. This week Peter marvels at how quickly Russell Wilson is maturing, still considers Derek Jeter the best player he has ever seen play over a full career, and gives out shampoo traveling tips to readers of another writer's column. 

The longer you follow pro football, the more you realize why the game's so much fun and so maddening. I mean, we're six weeks into the season and who really knows anything?

Nobody really knows anything about this NFL season, unless your name is Peter King. Peter knows enough to state in this very column we shouldn't call rookies "rookies" anymore and he knows the Falcons are the best team in the NFL right now. Other than the things in this column Peter thinks he knows, nobody knows anything.

Former Niners owner Eddie DeBartolo to Sam Farmer of the L.A. Times, on the 49ers, after their 79-3 dismantling of the Jets and Bills in Weeks 4 and 5: "They're better than anybody they're going to play ... I don't see a weakness."

Sunday at Candlestick: New York Giants 26, San Francisco 3.

That is so crazy how Eddie DeBartolo's opinion could be wrong. He's so knowledgeable about the NFL and certainly isn't biased at all to think that the team he used to own is the best team in the NFL and has no weaknesses.

The AFC East: New York 3-3, New England 3-3, Buffalo 3-3, Miami 3-3.

"The league's really wacky this year,'' Bills safety Jairus Byrd said from Arizona Sunday evening. "Anything can happen. Just look at us."

Look at anybody.

Nobody knows anything about how good each NFL team is right now. It's almost like it would be a waste of time for Peter to do a "Fine Fifteen" this week since he admittedly knows nothing. Yet, he manages to get past his admitted lack of knowledge to post his "Fine Fifteen."

We have to stop calling rookies rookies

Since they are by definition NFL players who haven't played in the NFL prior to that year I am interested to see what word Peter suggests we use. Maybe call them "first year players" though that is a longer term to use and I personally would just resort back to calling them "rookies." Calling a player a "rookie" doesn't mean that player isn't very good at football or can't do his job well. It just means he hasn't played in the NFL prior to this current year.

Rookie quarterbacks were 4-1 Sunday, first-pick Luck the only loser, and Cleveland's Brandon Weeden getting his first pro victory. What should amaze us all is the quick maturation of them all. Robert Griffin III runs the Redskins like it's Baylor. Tannehill picked up where he left off at Texas A&M. And Russell Wilson -- more about him later -- has overcome the height and rookie thing to beat Tony Romo, Aaron Rodgers, Cam Newton and Tom Brady in the first six weeks of his pro career.

And remember, Russell Wilson's TEAM didn't beat Tony Romo, Aaron Rodgers, Cam Newton and Tom Brady, it was Russell Wilson personally and by himself who beat these quarterbacks. Sorry, Seattle defense you don't get any credit because the narrative about Wilson's height is much more interesting to the media than the achievements of a tough defense.

The maturation of Russell Wilson. After his sixth NFL game Sunday, a 24-23 win over the Patriots at home, Wilson told Tom Brady on the field, "I have so much respect for you as a player and a person. It's great to play against you." He walked through the Seattle locker room, shaking hands with every player. He stopped to share a few moments with owner Paul Allen. In his post-game press conference, during which he deflected any praise about himself toward the team, he finished the way he finishes interviews broadcast live to Seattle fans: "Go Hawks!''

Good teammate. Good politician. Good guy. And a very quick study as a quarterback.

But more importantly, he returns Peter's phone calls, which means Peter is prone to give Wilson more favorable coverage. If Wilson gets too down about a loss, well that doesn't mean much he's just a competitor. Wilson threw three interceptions (not that Wilson would ever do this)? He's just a rookie quarterback after all. Maybe the Seattle defense should return Peter's phone calls and start shaking everyone's hand rather than getting in Tom Brady's face for talking shit during a game and then they could possibly get credit for Seattle being 4-2.

Thirteen points down to Brady, in a heavy Seattle mist with nine minutes to go, Wilson led an 83-yard drive ending in his red-zone touchdown pass to Braylon Edwards.

I'm more impressed with the fact he got Braylon Edwards to catch the football. That's the sign of a great quarterback right there.

When Seattle GM John Schneider picked Wilson 75th overall, he was privately chided by his peers for picking Wilson too high. He's too small (5-foot-11), football people said; he won't be able to take the punishment of the pro game, and his arm's just okay. It's only six games, of course, and anything can happen,

It's the old "I've reached a conclusion that may or may not hold up in the long-term, but for the sake of finishing this column let's assume my conclusion holds up in the long-term, and if it doesn't remember I said anything can happen" way of ensuring you are correct.

and he's had a couple of games of shaky decision-making.

Ignore the bad and focus on how Wilson has played well over the last two weeks against below average defenses.

I asked Wilson if he was stunned to have beaten Tom Brady and the Patriots, with the Belichick-designed defense.

What the hell kind of question is this? Does Peter really think Russell Wilson is going to say, "Hell yeah, I'm surprised we won the game. I went into this game just assuming we would lose."? This is just not a question that tells the reader anything. Of course a pro athlete is going to say he is never stunned when he wins a game. If he said otherwise he would criticizing not only his own skill level, but his teammates as well. What kind of answer did Peter expect?

"No,'' he said. "Not at all. This is what I've been waiting for my whole life. God's given me a blessing and an opportunity. I've always looked up to Tom, even though he's 6-4, 6-5 and a different kind of player. He's so smart, got so much competitive fire and tenacity. He didn't get drafted high, and he had to work for everything he ever got. I really identify with him. I try to prepare the same way I know he prepares.''

What a shocking and insightful quote. Russell Wilson respects Tom Brady (which we wouldn't know except for the fact Peter mentioned this earlier in MMQB), Wilson models himself after Brady, identifies with Brady because he was drafted later in the NFL Draft (though Wilson was taken in the 3rd round and Brady in the 6th round...there's a big difference in those draft spots) and he expected to win the game. Was there any doubt Wilson would say he expected to win this game? Doesn't nearly every quarterback look up to a quarterback like Tom Brady?

Last week, Eli Manning's backup for three years at Ole Miss, Seth Smith, had a game-tying double in game four of the American League Division Series for Oakland against Detroit. "You call me a quarterback, and you should use that word loosely,'' Smith said Saturday. "I was never a threat to win the job from Eli. I was never close to playing. He was in another league.'' Smith, it seemed, had much in common with Manning, though -- the ability to treat a ninth-inning playoff at-bat with 50,000 screaming fans watching the same as a March at-bat in Arizona. 

Clearly Eli Manning taught Seth Smith how to handle playing in a pressure situation. Maybe Peter should ask Eli Manning if he expects to come through for the Giants in a pressure situation this year. Who knows what his answer will be?

Adam Teicher of the Kansas City Star countered the report out Sunday that Scott Pioli has been in discussions with the team on a two-year contract extension. As I said on NBC Sunday night, I can confirm the debunking -- I'm told Pioli and Chiefs owner Clark Hunt haven't been talking contract 

Some Chiefs fans breathe a sight of relief upon hearing this. 

If Alex Karras had been born half a century later, he'd have been a star on Warren Sapp's level -- even brighter.

So Alex Karras would have also been a loud mouth jerk who really has no redeeming qualities other than having played the game of football at a high level once upon a time?

2. He was so angry at Lions quarterback Milt Plum for throwing a game-turning interception that allowed the Packers to come back to beat the Lions in 1962 that, in the locker room, he took his helmet off and flung it at Plum's head, missing him by inches. And admitted doing it.

Well, as long as he admits to doing it then no-harm, no-foul. Imagine if an NFL player today threw his helmet at a teammate and the media got a hold of this information? Jay Cutler pushed a teammate and the media acted as if he had committed the greatest crime against his team that was possible. Peter suggested Cam Newton get a hearty lecture from Bernie Kosar about leadership because he was pouting after a bad performance. What if Newton had thrown a helmet at a defensive player? I'm not knocking Karras, but simply saying these wouldn't be fond "that guy was a competitor and character" memories if he played in today's NFL. These would be "this guy is a jerk who attacked his own teammates and gambled while playing in the NFL" memories.

3. He was suspended for the 1963 season for gambling on football games, and was eternally bitter at commissioner Pete Rozelle for what he thought was overreacting to a penny-ante hobby.

Gambling on football games when you are playing in the NFL...what's the big deal? 

Fine Fifteen

1. Atlanta (6-0).

They have beaten the #10, #11, and #14 teams in Peter's "Fine Fifteen." I guess that's impressive enough for Peter. There are other teams with better resumes, but it seems Peter just stuck the only undefeated team in this #1 spot.

2. New York Giants (4-2). Most impressive win by any team this season,

But not impressive enough for the #1 spot.

the 26-3 rout of the Niners that no one -- not even Abby Manning -- saw coming in its decisiveness. (Well, I'm sure Ms. Eli thought her husband would pull out a win, but a rout?)

More importantly, does it really matter what Abby Manning thinks? Peter is the type of guy who name-drops people that he knows whenever given the opportunity in MMQB. It's just Peter name-drops bizarre names like random people he knows in his personal life and the wife of an NFL quarterback. These are people I'm not sure are incredibly interesting to Peter's readers.

4. Chicago (4-1). After two straight weeks of scoring defensive touchdowns, Lance Briggs and Charles Tillman were held scoreless Sunday. 

My God, tell me more about this story. I didn't even know the Bears pla---

That could be because the Bears had a bye in advance of a Week 7 Monday nighter against Detroit.

You got me, Peter! I done got fooled by your misdirectionative comments.

5. Baltimore (5-1). John Harbaugh is now 31-5 at home. The Ravens are on a 14-game winning streak at The Big Crabcake. But it's not at home where Baltimore's about to be tested. Next six weeks: at Houston, bye, at Cleveland, vs. Oakland, at Pittsburgh, at San Diego. Yikes.

Especially "yikes" without Ray Lewis and Lardarius Webb. 

6. San Francisco (4-2). I guarantee you Jim Harbaugh hasn't slept yet, and is in his office as you read this, saying to the Bill Walsh photo on his laptop, "Coach, don't ask me. I have no idea what just happened.

You guarantee Jim Harbaugh is talking to his laptop photo as if it were really Bill Walsh? I'll take that guarantee and say Jim Harbaugh did not do this. I have an idea of what just happened. The Giants got out to a lead in the game and Alex Smith wasn't able to lead the 49ers back.

8. Seattle (4-2). Amazing thing is, I was convinced the Seahawks had to beat the tar out of Tom Brady to win this game, and Brady, with 59 pass drops, was sacked only once and hit while throwing five times. Not a lot, getting hit once every 12 attempts. But this game was won with big plays from Russell Wilson when the Seahawks had to have them.

This game was also won by the Seahawks porous defense (at least on this day) which clamped down on the Patriots in their last two possessions giving Russell Wilson (and Russell Wilson alone with help from no one else) a chance to come back in this game. I know the Seattle defense didn't play well throughout the game, but somebody somewhere needs to give them credit for playing well when they had to play well and stopping the Patriots offense.

15. Philadelphia (3-3). The story about Michael Vick carrying the ball around the Eagles' practice facility all week, reminding himself to not drop it so much, didn't work so well in the loss to Detroit. He fumbled for the 30th time in his last 30 games, and threw two more picks.

Was there someone chasing Vick around the practice facility and did Mike Vick have to pass the football to another Eagles player while he was being chased and the Eagles player was being defended by another Eagles player? If not, then I can see how this didn't work.

Offensive Players of the Week

Russell Wilson, QB, Seattle. Imagine what must be going through this kid's mind, after out-dueling Rodgers and Brady in the first six weeks of his NFL career. "It's the team, not me,'' he said from the Seattle locker room after the 24-23 win over the Patriots. Modesty will get you everywhere. 

Yeah, Wilson isn't being modest. He is being accurate in making this statement. The Seahawks defense held the Patriots to field goals instead of touchdowns and played well so that Wilson could lead a comeback. There is a difference in being modest and simply telling the truth.

Coaches of the Week

Pat Shurmur, head coach, Cleveland. He's been unfailingly optimistic around his team, which, after losing 11 in a row, had to be hard. "It wasn't really,'' he said over the phone afterward. "They're so young. 

Well, except for the Browns' quarterback. He is two years younger than Eli Manning and two years older than Matt Ryan. Think about that for a minute. I couldn't have hated the Weeden pick by the Browns more. Even if he ends up playing well and being the quarterback that can lead the Browns to the playoffs in multiple years he is going to be 30 years old before he will do this. I feel like Weeden is a short-term quarterback, that's my biggest problem with him, and a rebuilding team spent a first round pick on him.

"Do not carry me."

-- Yankees shortstop Derek Jeter, three minutes after breaking his left ankle early Sunday morning in Game 1 of the American League Championship Series, to manager Joe Girardi, who was preparing with trainer Steve Donahue to remove Jeter from the field. Jeter put his left arm over Girardi's left shoulder and his right arm over Donahue's, and he left the field putting no weight on his left foot.

What a player. What a competitor.

This is why many stat geeks say that Jeter's defense was continually overrated 2-3 seasons ago. You want him to move laterally and he ends up breaking his ankle.

I'm just kidding Yankees fans. It's too soon, I know.

Mr. Starwood Preferred Member Travel Note of the Week

A great question in Chuck Klosterman's "The Ethicist'' column in Sunday's New York Times Sunday Magazine, and if you travel, the question's for you. The question, from a reader identified as "S.B.'' from New York:

A combination of Peter King and Chuck Klosterman? Along with Peter including a haiku in every MMQB there have been quite a few unwelcome new developments in MMQB this past year.

"My boyfriend often travels for business. I always ask him to bring back the shampoo and conditioner from the hotel room, and if he is staying multiple nights, to put the shampoo in his suitcase so that the maid will replace it and he can bring home an additional bottle. He says this is stealing. I say the shampoo is included in the price of the room, and the room is not discounted the second night, so therefore the second bottle of shampoo is included the second night. Incidentally, I haven't purchased shampoo or conditioner in over four years, a point of pride for me. Your thoughts?"

If there is a better place to discuss this issue than an NFL column then I am not aware of that better place. Do you know what I think? I think if you have to write into a column and get advice on whether this is stealing shampoo or not, then you may have a few issues that are bigger than theft of shampoo. Of course, I guess asking pointless questions to Chuck Klosterman is the entire point of "The Ethicist" column. It shocks me how many people will email Bill Simmons and ask for his opinion on trivial matters and it probably shouldn't. After all "Dear Abby" was a very popular column for a long time.

The way I see it, there are three possible answers here -- and I'd love to hear your thoughts on which one you think is just.

So basically Peter wants to hear our thoughts on his thoughts concerning Chuck Klosterman's thoughts about the writer of this question's thoughts related to stealing hotel shampoo?

a. You're entitled to take as much shampoo and conditioner and soap as the housekeeper puts in your room for the length of your stay.

b. You're entitled to one bottle of shampoo and conditioner and one bar of soap per stay.

c. You should never take any toiletries from a hotel room.

Here is the answer. Would you feel comfortable going to the front desk and telling them you are taking the soap and shampoo? If so, ask them if they consider this to be stealing. If not, then it isn't stealing. After all, you can't steal something the hotel doesn't care if you take.

You know what I do with these little bottles?

Keep them to help store your special "Matt Ryan/Russell Wilson lotion" when on the road?

Nothing -- unless I find one that has a screw-on top and is easily able to be filled with the shampoo I use. Then, a couple times a year, I empty one of them per trip, clean it out, then put it in my bag, take it home, and fill it with my shampoo to take on a future trip. I do this so I don't have to take a large bottle of shampoo, which would necessitate checking a bag, which I am loathe to do. The small shampoo bottles mean I can walk on with my bag.

I say take the shampoo. I'm guessing the hotel really doesn't care. After all, I'm pretty sure they replace the shampoo and soap once they have been used...or I hope they replace them.

1. I think this is what I liked about Week 6:

f. No interceptions by the Raiders through five games. Three interceptions by the Raiders in the first half at Atlanta.

This happened against the #1 team in Peter's power rankings and (who I would guess to be) his favorite right now for MVP. Just food for thought. A kernel of a thought, really. More like a morsel of a nugget of a thought.

m. Legatron. It's a matter of time before St. Louis' Greg Zuerlein breaks the record for the longest field goal (63 yards) in NFL history. He missed a 66-yarder wide left at Miami that had plenty of leg. Of course, he missed 52- and 37-yarders too, and making any of the three would have forced overtime in a three-point loss.

I hope this "Legatron" nickname doesn't catch on. It's a good thing this happened in the second quarter of the season or else Peter would have to take back his "Offensive Rookie of the Quarter-Part of the Year" award that he gave Zuerlein. Even if Zuerlein is just so damn precocious. I'm not sure Zuerlein even knows he is playing NFL football. He probably thinks he is kicking a football in the backyard of his mom's house. His precociousness is unparalleled.

n. Ronde Barber, he of the 78-yard interception return for touchdown, still making winning plays at 37.

In a 38-10 game this was definitely the deciding play in this game. What a winning winner. Ronde Barber is the greatest player that Peter has ever seen play the game of football during Barber's entire lifetime if you only count players whose last name is "Barber."

2. I think this is what I didn't like about Week 6:

e. Hold off on the Cantonization of Andrew Luck, after his overthrow of an easy touchdown to Coby Fleener at the Meadowlands.

There are a couple of gems in this comment. The ones who are Cantonizing Andrew Luck at this point is the sports media, of which Peter King has gladly helped the hype of Luck, and I would count him as part of those starting to Cantonize Luck. On the other hand, simply because Luck overthrew his receiver in the end zone doesn't mean he isn't going to be a great quarterback either. He is a rookie and missed a throw. This will not only have no effect on his Hall of Fame candidacy, but the mere mention of this as a reason to not Cantonize Luck yet makes my head hurt.

3. I think I am sick of those in and out of the football business telling me Ben Roethlisberger gets no respect. Stop. Just stop. Just because someone doesn't think Roethlisberger is as good as Tom Brady or Eli Manning or Aaron Rodgers doesn't mean that person doesn't respect him. We're in the golden age of quarterbacks -- the best time for quarterbacks, with the deepest roster of very good ones, in the history of the league -- and I consider Roethlisberger highly respected in the hierarchy. If it's bashing a guy to consider him the third- or fifth- or seventh-best at a time of such greatness ... I mean, Lord help us.

But Peter, Roethlisberger missed an open receiver in the end zone one time. Before we start calling him a quarterback in a time of such greatness let's remember this one pass that Roethlisberger missed on six years ago. Let's not be so quick to make Roethlisberger a great quarterback due to this missed pass.

9. I think I like Mike Vick owning a dog. As he said, he needs to break the cycle of animal abuse in his family. How will you do that for the next generations without showing them dogs can be beloved pets and not killer competitors?

I think Mike Vick owning a dog is a non-story, but is a story that too many people will try to read way too many things into. He used to fight dogs, now he owns one that he doesn't fight. He appears to be rehabilitated, so there isn't much to see here.

a. I'm having a hard time understanding why the people I see running through Manhattan with LIVESTRONG gear still wear the stuff, in the wake of what we heard last week from members of Lance Armstrong's bicycle racing team that he was doping while competing for years in the Tour de France. "To be on Lance Armstrong's team, doping was a necessity,'' one teammate, Ty Hamilton, told ESPN Radio. How much more evidence do you have to see and hear to be convinced Armstrong wasn't clean when he won all those races?

These people still wear this stuff because they enjoy wearing it and Lance Armstrong's fight against cancer and improving funding for cancer research still made a positive impact. I would wear LIVESTRONG gear mostly because it is good running gear to wear. I wouldn't throw my LIVESTRONG gear away simply because Lance Armstrong doped when he won the Tour de France races.

c. There can't be more valiant losers in sports, not just baseball, than the A's and O's.

Blah, hyperbole/cliche.

e. I really feel for Derek Jeter, the best baseball player whose full career I've had the pleasure to see.

A few years ago Peter King said Derek Jeter was the best player of the last 25 years and understandably many people wrote in to him asking what he was smoking. Peter clarified to say Jeter was the best baseball player whose full career he had ever seen. I still don't know what he is smoking, but I've given up the fight at this point. There's no talking or convincing him away from this point. I wouldn't put Jeter in the Top 5 of players whose full career I have had the pleasure to see. Maybe I'm underestimating The Jeter too much.

h. The Nationals might want to sign that Phil Coke guy. His first 13 pitches in the American League Championship Series were strikes. A foreign concept to the Nats hurlers.

Throwing strikes isn't always the best way to get a hitter out, which I know I don't have to tell Peter this since he is such a huge fan of baseball. Also, Drew Storen did throw three strikes to a Cardinals hitter, but the umpire just didn't call the third strike.

The Adieu Haiku

Hey Aaron Rodgers!
Loved what you told Tafoya.
"Shhhhhhh.'' Critics silenced.


Hello Peter King!
Do not be an Easterbrook
Haikus have to go.